Bitcoin Bull Run Five signs to watch before you buy

This week, Janine Cox reveals five signs that can help confirm when a Bitcoin bull run is likely to occur and whether a move has the strength to continue. Discover what Bitcoin’s price action, capital flows, investor demand and market conditions can tell you about the next big move, and how to manage your risk rather than chase the hype.

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  This podcast is brought to you by Wealth Within, a global leader in stock market education. For more information on our courses, head over to wealthwithin.com.au. Please note that the information in this podcast should not be considered personal financial advice. Enjoy.

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  Hello and welcome to Talking Wealth. This is Janine Cox, Senior Analyst at Wealth Within. Today, I'm going to talk again about Bitcoin. And this is about a Bitcoin bull run, five signs to watch before you buy. Now, in this episode, I'm going to look at what short and medium term traders should watch before committing their capital. Bitcoin can move fast. But the real challenge is knowing whether you're seeing a genuine bull run or simply getting pulled into hype after the easy gains are gone. And this is what we've seen over time has happened to people. And we don't want you to repeat the same

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  mistakes. So please really do your research. And of course, this is combined with what's happening with the money flow, the capital flow, and what you're seeing on the chart and matching those two things up. So firstly, I'm actually going to just go into a few details about Bitcoin, because it is a really interesting subject. Perhaps you have been following Bitcoin and you'll know that a Bitcoin bull run is more convincing when price and capital flows, market structure and the macro backdrop confirm one another. Now, personally, the chart trumps everything. However, having this other information can

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  mean that you're ticking more boxes. Now, no single ETF flow number forecast or price spike is really enough to go by. But some people are using that as a sole reason to buy it. The key here is follow the money. It always has been, but do not follow it blindly, which is why you need to be observing what's going on from a charting point of view. Follow the money. It's the oldest expression in financial markets. And it's particularly useful when Bitcoin begins to wake up after long periods of weakness. We've seen that over time where Bitcoin makes a low, turns to come back up and provide some incredible

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  opportunities. Now, money flowing into Bitcoin is not by itself proof that a new bull market has begun. The most important question is what combination of evidence would make the bull run case stronger? Your challenge is always to be minimizing your risk. And having more information is not necessarily the answer. It's how useful that information really is. So what would tell us that the move is more likely to fail? And looking at it from a different angle, when we're doing analysis on charts, we analyze things from both perspectives. One, if there's a bull case and two, if there's more likely to be a bear scenario. And this

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  is what we're going to get into. Rather than asking where Bitcoin will be next week, we need to build a framework to use whenever Bitcoin starts setting up for another major move. So let's look at some of the past bull runs on Bitcoin. And one of those periods is in 2024, we saw some quite incredible moves in the Bitcoin price. When US spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, the first month produced around 1.5 billion in net inflows. In February, as demand broadened, the Bitcoin strengthened, monthly net inflows

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  accelerated to the then record 6.2 billion US dollars. CoinShares noted that Bitcoin captured about 97% of those February flows. Now, just to give you some idea of what was going on there, Bitcoin actually rose significantly in that month. There was a huge jump of 44% in the one month. The real entry for Bitcoin was actually well before that. A good entry was somewhere around October 2023. If you had been in around that time, there was a really nice run that happened after that. But interestingly, after those inflows happened,

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  Bitcoin went up in March, peaked, and then it progressively pulled back over a period of around five months. And the fall that we saw was in the order of 33%. Now, that's a decent pullback, and is often what you'll see on a stock when it's in a growth phase, it will still have significant moves like that. Bitcoin was tackling the previous all time high at that time, back in November 2021. So the pullback from there, if you were looking at a chart, was to be expected. But those who were not looking at charts probably

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  never would have realized that that was coming. Now, that's one of the first lessons that I've just talked about is strong bull runs tend to become more credible when rising price is accompanied by persistent new capital, not simply one spectacular day of trading. And people constantly focus on what happens on any given day, which is just crazy. Because after that pullback that we saw, that when things eased off a bit, the rise from that low in, that was, I'll give you the month, August 2024, to the next high was 122%. So

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  this was telling you something. This is really important and key to be watching. Later in 2024, the same pattern appeared again by mid-December. Digital asset investment products had recorded 10 consecutive weeks of inflows with about 44.5 billion entering during the year. Now, is it interesting that these inflows, huge inflows come up before the peak, that we'd expect to see that euphoric phase? Bitcoin alone attracted around 2 billion in that week. The important point is not the exact dollar figure, it is the persistence and breadth of demand that's going on. And there's a lot of hype that goes on around these fund flows.

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  So we also saw the opposite in June 2024. After five weeks of strong inflows, a more hawkish US Fed Reserve meeting was followed by about 600 million of weekly outflows, almost entirely from Bitcoin. Capital can reverse quickly when the macro story changes. But it's what the commitment is to that sell off that then tells you what the potential is that's coming after that. So the 2026 example, and this is important about a reversal in flows and why it matters, the same principle showed up again in 2026. Earlier in the year, institutional flows were weak and Bitcoin was under pressure. CoinShares reported in

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  January that digital asset ETPs were in net outflow for the year, while large Bitcoin holders had been distributing billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin. So if we go back and we have a look at the chart, and we look through to 2026, we can see a very, I guess, strong push down. Bitcoin had already been falling. It had already given signals, plenty of signals, to traders that Bitcoin was going down. There was a strong reversal at the top. It took out some key levels in that move. That was in October 2025. There was a huge

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  gush to the downside in November 2025, well before that information that I just shared with you was recorded. So this is when the picture really began to change for Bitcoin after that November 2025. But what happened? Well, the picture, during the August rebound, now we're looking forward, we can see that there was a bit of a rebound in August through June, there was a low, it continued to fall, we bounced. So we saw a test of the low,

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  and a rebound, a strong rebound that happened during the middle of the year. So US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a run of positive sessions and billions of dollars returned to the funds. Now, that mattered, because it suggested genuine spot demand was beginning to replace some of the short covering that had accelerated the first leg higher. But this is exactly why you would never say ETF inflows are positive, therefore buy Bitcoin. What matters is whether the flows persist and whether price confirms them, and whether Bitcoin holds its gains

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  when the first excitement fades. It's also, what matters is the direction that the chart is actually confirming, and the setup that unfolds. And you can be watching Bitcoin well in advance of all of this. The data is then just confirming what you already know from your analysis on the chart. It's not the other way around. In the beginning, when I got into the stock market, I would say, oh, you know, we saw a sell off, and I didn't fully understand what was going on. The sell off would explain what was happening. And then I would look back at the chart. But now, or after, you know, many years of having done this, you will know, if you're looking at the chart, that it's the chart that's telling

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  you what's likely to happen ahead of all of that. So you'll be able to see where it's more likely to be a case of inflows all of a sudden start creeping back in, short positions are covered, is it followed by inflows? The data can actually tell you whether it's serious or not. And it can be measured by past examples. And there are five signs that it's important to see before calling the bull run. You want to see something on the chart, of course.

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  Now, none, none of this is perfect on its own, of course, not without looking at a chart. The power comes from several things lining up together. It's a confluence of analysis and a confluence of information coming together, particularly price. We're talking about lining up. Capital flows are important, but there are also other things that we teach in our courses that help you line up these lows and determine where they are. Because Gans said price, pattern and time. People think, well, look, you know, why are wealth within courses priced the way that they are? It's because of the way that we're actually staging the whole development of your brain around receiving that information and then being able to apply it yourself

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  so that it just becomes second nature. Otherwise, you're just second guessing what you're seeing. Now, price structure turns up, that's one of the points. Bitcoin stops making lower lows and begins building higher lows and higher highs. You could, you'll start to see this on the weekly chart. That's the earliest possible form. But remember, trend is your friend. If you're using the trends and you know how to apply proper trend lines, Dale shows examples in his book. If you don't have a copy of that book, you know, it's the cost of postage. It's the cheapest, you know, possible investment you'll make to learn the very basics on how to look at trend lines and how to apply them. If you're wanting more than that, you would get into our short course

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  and that will give you all the key principles behind applying really good reliable trend lines. Now, just back on to this bit. Knowing that there's a bounce that often happens at a low. It's not the bounce that's enough. You want to see the buyers defend the pullback that happens. So often traders will get caught. If they haven't even done backtesting to determine whether the right approach is to just take it on the, on the first bounce out. But it may be that the second bounce is the thing that's important. So price breaks important resistance and it holds it. That's another key thing. So past advances will give you clues.

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  The more convincing phase comes when former resistance begins acting as support rather than price simply spiking through a level and falling back below it. Then people try to get in thinking that they're going to get it cheaper. It can be, often be, can be a disaster trying to do that if they haven't confirmed a confluence of the analysis and, and what the situation's actually telling you. Capital flows become persistent. This is a second point, one of the signs. One large day of ETF buying, it attracts the headlines. It doesn't make a bull market. So look at it, shrug it off. You want to see a lot more before you're willing to commit your hard earned money in there.

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  Now, I know that we've got a lot of tradies who are with us, who are learning. I've heard people talking that they sit on construction sites, listening to other people talk that are just risking their hard earned money and they don't even realise or understand fully the risk that they're taking. Do you know how to determine your risk versus reward? If you don't, then, you know, stop and look at yourself and say, well, what am I doing here? I'm risking too much. This is too important, especially in this time to get, to get this wrong right now. You have to have that risk management for the what ifs. So what if something goes up? The main thing is that you've preserved your, your capital and protected it.

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  Now, in February 2024, monthly digital asset inflows accelerated to the then record 6.2 billion, with 97% going to Bitcoin. Quite staggering. Later that year, the market also recorded a 10 week inflow streak. The lesson, yeah. I'd rather see constructive flows continue for weeks than one spectacular number that immediately reverses. This is where the warning sign or warning bell should be ringing in your head if you're attempting to buy based on that and not having other things lining up to tick the boxes that it's all there. Sign number three, price and flows confirm each other.

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  Rising price accompanied by sustained net inflows is stronger evidence that price is rising while investment products are losing. Now, the reverse is also useful. In June 2024, a more hawkish Fed Reserve backdrop was followed by roughly 600 million of weekly digital asset outflows, almost entirely from Bitcoin. When flows deteriorate, deteriorate as price struggles, the bull case deserves more scrutiny. So think about that. So it's, you see flows go up, flows come back and often then you'll see another push up. The selling side, selling pressure eases and participation broadens.

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  So you want to see less aggressive distribution from large holders and evidence that demand's not confined to one short squeeze or one product. Bitcoin often leads, but a healthier risk on environment can eventually bring improving demand for ether.

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  For ether and, so we just scrapped that bit before. For ether and selected crypto assets as well. Broad participation is not essential on Monday, but it can help confirm that confidence is spreading rather than narrowing. Now, point five, the backdrop supports a really sustainable move and real buyers remain after the squeeze. So we've had a short squeeze, often happens at the bottom and we see a bounce. Who's still in there? Liquidity, interest rate expectations, the US dollar can materially influence Bitcoin. Short covering can ignite a rally, but it won't sustain one.

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  You want genuine spot demand to remain after forced buying fades. The macro environment needs to be supportive rather than actively fighting the move. That's got to be clear. And the first meaningful pullback is often where it becomes much clearer. Right, now, these are things that we, we teach this, a technique that's absolutely brilliant in the trading mentor course. It's only, it's probably a couple of grand to do that course. I'm not sure exactly how much it is these days, but really undervalued for what it actually shares. But it keeps it simple. And that's really another key thing as well. Then you can decide if you want to go into things in more detail.

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  Now, I think really the important things here are the price structure, as I mentioned. Look for higher lows, higher highs, resistance and breaks to see if price is going to hold. Look for warnings where the breakout fails and you start to get lower lows and it's pulling back further. More time spent pulling back than rising.

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  Persistent capital flows, you're looking for. For a bull run case, multi-week net inflows, demand survives the pullbacks. It's pretty simple. The warning sign, you get a one-off surge followed by some sustained outflows. That's a big warning sign. Price and flows confirming is a signal. Now, the bull evidence is price strengthens while net flows stay constructive. Bear that in mind. The warning sign, price rises while flows deteriorate. Selling and participation, larger holder distribution eases. So that's the bull case and demand broadens. The warning sign, the whales sell into the strength and the rally stays really narrow.

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  So watch that. Macro and quality of demand, supportive liquidity, not spot demand. But you want the demand to persist after that squeeze happens. Stronger dollar is a warning sign. Tighter liquidity, leverage is, is in there doing most of the work. So that's often what's talked about in the media. But the chart is going to show you the bounce that happens. It'll show you how strong it is. You have to be able to have the knowledge to work out how high that price of Bitcoin is going to run unobstructed, more or less. You know, this free, free zone, then it becomes trickier after that.

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  But it's that free zone, if you can get into Bitcoin in that phase, then that's where it's easier to make the money. So ETF flows, are they useful? Can they mislead you? ETF flows will give us relatively clean view of new money entering or leaving investment products. That's probably about the only good thing about them. They're particularly valuable now because mainstream and institutional investors gain Bitcoin exposure without holding Bitcoin directly. Flows need to have context around them. So when an ETF owns, say Bitcoin, Bitcoin rises, the value of the fund rises even with no new investor contributions in, right? So that's something to think about.

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  That's why I, we focus on net flows rather than simply looking at the assets under management, which some people mistakenly do. You also want to know whether the buying is broad. You know, is it happening broadly? In April 2024, for example, CoinShares still reported strong weekly inflows, but noted that ETF appetite was moderating and trading volumes had fallen substantially from early March. The market was still attracting money, but the rate of acceleration was changing. That's important. A bull market can continue while the flows slow, but slowing flows tell you to look

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  more closely at price rather than assuming the previous pace will continue. That's why we often see a rise and then a pullback. So a short covering pullback for the test. It's testing that supply and demand and then a push up if it's real. And the strength of that push up determines whether it's got the momentum to keep going. Flow data tells us where money's going, but it does not identify the exact asset each investor sold to fund a Bitcoin purchase. So that's important as well. And avoid claims such as investors are selling shares to buy Bitcoin.

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  Don't buy into that rubbish. Just follow what's really going on. You need data to tell you that and a chart to confirm it. We can look for a broader change in risk appetite. Right, that could be a flag. When institutions reduce defensive exposure and decide to increase their allocations to equity and digital assets, Bitcoin may be participating in a wider risk on rotation when that happens. So from time to time, the flow back into equities and, and digital assets, some tech stocks could be a good sign for that as well. When investors retreat toward cash, fixed income or the US dollar, crypto can face a much harder environment.

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  Gold is also worth watching. Bitcoin and gold can sometimes rise together when investors are concerned about debt, currency basement, or the purchasing power of the fiat currencies. At other times, Bitcoin behaves much more like a really risky asset, understanding or a growth asset. And understanding which regime we're in helps explain the move. Now, the risk that you're going to take is whatever you decide it is. If you set a stop loss, you know what your risk is. You need to go and look at the chart, see how fast Bitcoin moves when it gets sold off. How vulnerable are you to that? Could you set a stop loss that's, you know, a bit more forgiving or should you keep it tighter?

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  The chart's going to be the one that's going to guide you there, not information that's published to get people to do things. Remember, there are activists putting stuff out there all the time. So is crypto dead? History says that's not the way to look at this. Crypto's been declared dead many times. And then that's usually happened after the falls or towards the end of the fall for good reason, because there are people out there that are trying to create fear. While they're trying to get in, then the people have no idea are trying to get out, which is just crazy. And these situations happen because people are not educated in how a chart moves.

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  It's not rock and science. It's not brain surgery. It's easy for people to do this once they have a process or a methodology of looking at a chart. You can look at a chart and tell me whether it's going up or down or sideways. Then it's actually wrapping around onto that important techniques that show you how high a stock could go, by when, how far will it rise, and when will it peak? You know, what's the pattern that's unfolding?

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  Now, as far as all of this talk about whether crypto is dead, just ignore that.

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  It doesn't matter what it is. There are so many securities that can fall and have major falls and then following that can base out and produce really good runs. There are also stocks that go off the market because they continue to fall. And then a story is, comes out, it's really not a good story. They don't make a recovery sadly. And in the GFC, there were lots of stocks that went out the back door or they were taken over. The more useful question is whether capital price and market structure are telling us that the demand is strengthening again. Look, regulation matters, yes. Australia, Europe and the UK and other markets have continued building frameworks around

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  digital assets, but there was a lot of hype about all of that. And yet Bitcoin rose again. So, you know, it doesn't guarantee one that the price of Bitcoin is going to go one way or the other. It does show that it's going to become increasingly integrated into our financial markets. So the most informative part of a new rally may be the first meaningful pullback.

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  So that's why we say often that when people are trying to get into a stock or market or Bitcoin, way after the run's already happened, that they're probably in too late because they have missed that bit that was the key piece of information towards the, just after the low. Now, if Bitcoin breaks resistance, pulls back, holds above an important support area, and the ETF demand remains constructive, that is much stronger evidence than just a vertical price spike that gets everybody talking and gets a headline.

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  Conversely, I would actually be really cautious if Bitcoin repeatedly falls from a resist, strong resistance level. You know, and large holders try to distribute their funds as markets are rising and then through the peak and onto the other side. We saw that in the GFC and that's why Dale's book sold so many copies around that time because it, his book basically showed where people should be getting out. And it's the cost of postage. Now, I think here we have to really look at what could happen here.

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  There could be ETF flows that turn persistently negative or the macro environment shifts towards tighter liquidity and a stronger US dollar. They could be really important signals. In 2024, we saw how quickly the flows could reverse after a change in Fed Reserve expectations. We saw later that year how the inflows accompanied much stronger market confidence. So that's why it's really important to have confirmation rather than just a prediction. You've got to have a forecast, but you need that confirmation to follow it up.

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  Now, price targets. Every Bitcoin rally gives a higher or more ambitious price forecast, but they've got to be based on something solid. You know, it's not like a company that's got a bottom line and they're producing something that you can then determine a more accurate value on. And even then, in reporting season, you might sit there scratching your head, wondering why the stock's just been sold off massively when for everything you could see, it looked like sunshine.

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  Now, 2024, if that doesn't teach you anything, it's got to teach you that as Bitcoin approaches a psychologically important level, it could turn significantly. And that's what you've got to be ready for. CoinShares recorded a significant weekly Bitcoin outflow that it attributed to profit taking. You're going to see this on the chart ahead of anyone, even CoinShares telling you this. You're going to see it with a trend line and with a confluence of other rules and patterns. So instead of asking whether somebody believes Bitcoin can reach a particular number, which we can work that out.

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  But the main thing is there, is the trend intact? We always talk about that trend as being important.

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  Is new capital supporting that trend? Is it all hype?

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  So when does the chart tell us that the trend is broken down? That all of a sudden it's going the other way? So it's about trading the setup and not chasing Bitcoin. It will be there. There'll be plenty of opportunities over time.

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  The key is to get in at a lower risk time. Sometimes it may be considered a higher risk just because of the very nature of it, or the degree of the fall. The degree of a fall can determine whether something could be considered medium to higher risk instead of being low or medium risk.

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  And the way that it's actually unfolding after the low. So the key is to tick a number of boxes to reduce that risk. But you're never going to reduce it completely. There's always going to be some risk. And Bitcoin, the very nature of it, is considered more risky than a lot of other assets. But we could show you why some stocks could behave worse than a Bitcoin and people would be quite surprised about that.

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  But we're not going to talk about that right now. So instead of asking whether someone believes whether Bitcoin can reach a particular number, remember, look at those things. The trend is capital supporting the rise. And where does the chart tell us that this is not going to last?

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  We know capital flows are evidence of the trade setup. The flow data, you want that to agree with the price action. You don't want it to replace that. It's not that one part of this is important on its own, it's that it's got to work together. So you need a definable trend. How do you understand and read trends? How do you recognise that? Some people try to look at it on a daily chart. That's absolute rubbish. You know, it's just leading you astray. You've got to find an entry that makes sense. So you've got, that means have a good set of rules that makes sense, not try to just pick up a stock that hasn't even bounced off the bottom yet, or Bitcoin.

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  And a technically valid level is important. Has it held it? Has it failed that level? Don't try and catch a falling knife when Bitcoin's going through an important level. Bitcoin can be extremely volatile. It could just keep thundering south and just take all your money.

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  So the other thing is, this is about your capital investment as well. We say that no more than 2% of total trading capital.

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  When you're planning your trade, that's what you're planning for. And that's at risk. And that doesn't mean that only 2% of the portfolio can be invested. It may be that you put 5% to 10% in. It's up to you and how you consider this in terms of your overall portfolio. It doesn't mean that you're going to be able to get out with exactly 2% of risk either, because it could be that Bitcoin at some point just drops straight through your level, which means that you'll be getting out at slightly less than that. But this is what you've got a plan for. You may even decide to be super conservative and keep it well inside of that. It means that the potential loss between the entry and the stop

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  generally will remain within that risk limit. And across a portfolio, you might have some that you're exiting out at lower prices while others, or lower percentages while others may go outside of that. But overall, the balance is there. Now, if Bitcoin requires a wider stop. Actually, I should mention too that COVID was really one outside of the box. There is nothing in history which indicated that COVID was going to unfold like that. And I'm not going to rule it out and say that it couldn't happen again, given this type of market that we're in now, which is really different.

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  But in terms of a rebound coming back so quickly, we're not in that phase of the market for that sort of thing to happen. We're in a phase of the market where we see a euphoric rise to a top and then a protracted low.

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  If Bitcoin requires a wider stop because volatility is high, the position needs to be smaller. So that could be a good starting point for you because Bitcoin is considered a riskier type of investment than, say, ordinary stocks that could be in the top 100. But follow the money and make mark on the chart what's going on. It's good to keep that history in there. If you've got Optima, like our students receive when they join and enrol in one of our courses, then that will actually allow you to record that information on the chart. You just put it into a text box, save it away in a layer, and then you can bring all of that back up when you're wanting to review what's gone on.

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  Now, I think really it's about looking back at where you've come from in terms of your journey and thinking about Bitcoin in the big picture. Look at the pricing structure, understand what your limitations are currently for how you can analyse a chart. If you need more information, make sure that you get it. If you know you need to build your knowledge, then do one of our courses to bring that up as soon as possible, so that you're in a good position to take advantage of that. But most importantly, in the best possible position to manage your risk.

• 35:01Speaker 01

  So you're looking for these meaningful lows, you're looking for the signs to be lining up, to be able to tick a number of boxes before the entry and to be able to have that discipline to do it that way. And that's what studying with us and having completed one of our courses brings for you. You just need to apply it. You just need to follow a process of doing the analysis. Now, I want to compare the setup and look at previous setups, have a look at the way that Bitcoin's unfolded, how far it's accelerated, what the pullbacks are like when it's weakening, how sustained they are, how long they run for.

• 35:44Speaker 01

  And know Bitcoin like the back of your hand. Don't just think, oh yeah, Bitcoin, I should buy some of that. Off you go and you buy it. You're just, you're going to be exposed to high risk without really understanding whether it's worth it for that particular run. So the other side of it here, and the really important takeaway for you, is that a Bitcoin bull run is not confirmed because Bitcoin has a good week, because an ETF attracts a record inflow, because a major bank publishes a large price target. The case becomes stronger when the five signs line up. And when those pieces all line up, the probability is likely to be improving.

• 36:30Speaker 01

  Okay, when they diverge, it's the other way, right? More caution. So follow the money, confirm it with the chart, and always manage your risk. I'm Janine Cox, Senior Analyst at Wealth Within. Bye for now.

• 36:46Speaker 00

  This podcast is brought to you by Wealth Within, a global leader in stock market education. For more information on our courses, head over to wealthwithin.com.au. Please note that the information in this podcast should not be considered personal financial advice.