This Q4 is Different: What ASX Investors Must Do Now

In tonight’s Australian Stock Market Show, Dale, Janine and Filip discuss why this Q4 is different and what ASX investors must do now.

• 0:01Speaker 00

  This podcast is brought to you by Wealth Within, a global leader in stock market education. For more information on our courses, head over to wealthwithin.com.au. Please note that the information in this podcast should not be considered personal financial advice. Enjoy.

• 0:19Speaker 01

  This fourth quarter has a setup that we haven't seen in quite the same way for years. There are a few signals starting to line up beneath the surface, and if they continue the next three months, could surprise a lot of investors. So what makes this quarter four different? And where should ASX investors be looking? Well, stay tuned as we break it all down and select stocks that could end up the biggest winners. With decades of combined market experience, nationally recognised and accredited stock market education, and analysis featured across major Australian media, I'm Dal Gillam, joined by senior analyst Janine Cox and Philip Tordtevsky, and we are Wealth Within. Good evening, team. How are we?

• 0:59Speaker 02

  Fantastic. And yourself?

• 1:01Speaker 01

  You're looking fabulous tonight.

• 1:02Speaker 02

  Thank you. So are you. You've got your, you know,

• 1:05Speaker 01

  I'm glowing. I'm glowing. Phil looks even better. I sit next to you two, roses. I look like a thorn. Anyway, well, there is an interesting market statistic most people aren't aware of that could become very important over the next few months. Now, US midterm years can be volatile, but historically, the final quarter has actually been one of the strongest periods for the share market. So could history be pointing to a much stronger finish to 2026 that most people are anticipating? Now, since 1950, the S and P 500 has risen in 16 of the 19th fourth quarters during US midterm election years, which equates to

• 1:47Speaker 01

  around 84% of the time, with an average gain of roughly 6.6%. Now, go back even further, and Citadel Securities finds a similar pattern. Now, since 1930, midterm quarter fours have averaged 5.6% versus just 2.9% across all years. October and November have historically done much of the heavy lifting. Now, here's where it gets interesting for Australian investors. Zacks.com. Research shows the US healthcare has averaged 10.7%, and energy 8.9% during midterm years since 1990. And energy has already been one of the stronger

• 2:31Speaker 01

  areas of the Australian market, returning around 14.5% in the financial year 2026, and another 8.7% early in the financial year 2027. Now, healthcare is different. It's been heavily beaten down on the ASX, although we did see a strong rebound during August reporting season as companies, including CSL, Ansell and Ramsey, beat expectations. But seasonality isn't a guarantee. In 2018, the pattern failed badly, showing that tightening financial conditions can easily overwhelm the calendar. Now, this raises the question, how much weight would you actually put on statistics like this? Now, for this, I'm

• 3:13Speaker 01

  going to go to a resident statistician, Janine.

• 3:18Speaker 02

  I'll just go to ChatGPT.

• 3:20Speaker 01

  You go to ChatGPT. We've been telling everyone not to do that.

• 3:24Speaker 02

  Well, look, I'd use it as supporting evidence rather than a reason to buy. If the chart, earnings and momentum are already improving, then a strong seasonal period gives you another factor in your favour. But I wouldn't buy something purely because it's October and a midterm year.

• 3:43Speaker 01

  All right. Now, looking at Australia, would you rather follow strength in something like energy or look for a recovery in a beaten down sector like healthcare? Now, I'm going to go to you, Phil, on this one.

• 3:54Speaker 03

  Both. Both. Yeah, I mean, you've got two different players. Obviously, healthcare has been beaten down quite a bit, and there's that restructuring story, which seems to be working. You know, the health players like CSL have been holding up really, really well, despite the market selling off. So that is a spot that I think still has a lot of legs. But energy, for me, is more the theme right now, the story play. Because if tomorrow, the war ends, you may find a lot of energy stocks get hurt. Some will still be there. I mean, there's obviously gas and a bunch of other stories still around. But I think you need to be more in tune or in line with the developments going on around the story. Because prior to the war, oil was not the play. I mean, it

• 4:39Speaker 03

  was falling, and drastically falling. So it took a war to get this market back up. So that's how I treat the two things. One, a lot more active and focused on the theme and story in terms of being, you know, on the trigger. Whereas the other one, in the healthcare space, I think there's a real chance for medium term growth.

• 4:56Speaker 01

  And I know you and me are going to be chatting on Thursday with a gold expert, oil commodities expert for our members. So yeah, we'll have much more of an update on that after Thursday, because the topic is all around what you're talking about here, the war, oil and everything else. Because I mean, you know, today, I just filled up my car. I think I filled up half a tank, and it cost me over $70. It was like $2.60 or something. I got to put that, what do you call it, the 90, 80 in mind. Tell you what, when you've got these fancy cars, you've got to have fancy fuel, don't you? But anyway, hey, but I want to actually talk to you, because I heard you're going to come to the Microcap Conference with us finally. Shh. Okay, well, every year,

• 5:39Speaker 01

  we sponsor the Microcap Conference, and Phil and I have been there the last few years, but we can't get Janine there. But she's coming this year. And I was just speaking to the organisers only yesterday, and they gave us some more tickets. So if you do want some tickets to this year's Microcap Conference in Melbourne, it's the 20th, 21st of this month. So you do need to come to Melbourne. It's over two days. I think the tickets are worth like $600. So we've got a few tickets left. So just send your name and email and your phone number through to [email protected], and we can organise some free tickets for you. But okay, guys, now, we're going to go back to the pattern, what's been going on this, obviously midterm election pattern. And if this holds true for this quarter, or the fourth quarter of this year, let's get into, I want to get into the stocks that

• 6:23Speaker 01

  could actually benefit from this. Now, we talked about healthcare and energy, but I'm assuming it's a bit broader than that.

• 6:29Speaker 03

  Well, we're going to dive into those two sectors and find some players that haven't been in the media, in the news, some of the more hidden opportunities, if you will. No, I would have liked to say CSL, but no, that's obviously, you know, out there.

• 6:46Speaker 01

  Well, I think the energy companies, based on the petrol price today, I tell you what, they're pillaging at the moment, because oil's come down, and that the price of petrol's not coming down. So something's a bit sick here, or smelly. Pub test stuff, isn't it?

• 6:58Speaker 02

  It was up 10% today, or something.

• 7:00Speaker 01

  I couldn't believe it. I drove up, and I went, okay, I'll get some fuel. Got to come to the studios. And I went, holy snapping, geez. Yeah, I don't think I've paid that much for fuel ever. You know what I mean? It's like, okay, it's expensive.

• 7:16Speaker 02

  Actually, I'm doing some research on that at the moment, and solutions for that.

• 7:20Speaker 01

  Are you?

• 7:21Speaker 02

  I'll have a podcast.

• 7:22Speaker 01

  You're going to have a podcast on it. For you, it'll be put your sent shoes on and start walking a lot more. That's probably what it appears anyway. But let's get into the stocks, okay, before we keep going.

• 7:32Speaker 03

  So the first one's Amplitude Energy. Now, this is an Australian gas producer with record financial 26-year production, revenue and cash generation. Now, the major catalyst here is the East Coast Supply Project, now approved for development, and targeting up to 90 tili joules, whatever they call it, a day from 2028. The risk is execution and cost overruns on development, plus sensitivity to gas prices, as we've mentioned. Obviously, what's interesting about this one is that where it's situated, purely from the opportunity of, could it really turn from here? And that's the major point. Has it been rising? Has it been trending with the others? No. It's got good numbers coming out of financial 26. Have we seen a flow on in the share price or a crazy flow on? No. But nevertheless, it's found buyers at a level where you would expect it, at

• 8:17Speaker 03

  122. So I think watching this one now, at this level, could provide you the best profitability in terms of opportunity. Then you might see, you know, if it does tick above that 320. So I'd be trading this more of a, you know, more of a short to medium term opportunity until it proves itself above that 340. But even just the 340, I mean, you've got so much opportunity here. If we look at where we are today, and I'll zoom that in, we're sitting at $1.70. You've almost got 80, 90% upside opportunity to 340. So it doesn't look like much, but it's huge. And for a very cyclical stock like this, yeah, I think it's worth taking a closer look.

• 8:58Speaker 01

  Yeah. When does that new gas?

• 9:02Speaker 03

  The refinery.

• 9:03Speaker 01

  Finally, out of Western Australia. Is it a Woodside one? I'm not sure. It's off Western Australia. I know there was like, they spent a shedload of money. I think that's coming on this quarter, isn't it?

• 9:12Speaker 03

  There was a gentleman that did our course, that actually, we were having this conversation. He runs trucks, and specifically in Perth. And he mentioned that exact refinery.

• 9:23Speaker 01

  I think it's a Woodside, but don't quote me on that. I'll probably come down and do your research or something like that. But I remember, I think it's coming on fairly soon.

• 9:33Speaker 03

  Maybe that or Santos. I'm not sure exactly.

• 9:35Speaker 01

  It might be Santos. Yeah, I don't really know. But I know it is pretty soon, because I think that's an exciting area.

• 9:40Speaker 03

  Yeah, yeah, for sure. And just, you know, on that weekly chart, just quickly, it is forming a bit of price action that could allude to something be happening very soon. And again, our students will be looking at this going, I know exactly what you're talking about, Phil.

• 9:53Speaker 01

  Amazing, isn't it?

• 9:54Speaker 03

  Yeah. And the volume's really huge as well, highest volume we've seen. Now, could that be driven by the activity given around the circumstances? Maybe. But nevertheless, it's held, and it's held for almost a year with that raised volume. So could be very interesting around these levels.

• 10:07Speaker 01

  Okay, so we've got another stock, Janine.

• 10:10Speaker 02

  We certainly do, and the next one.

• 10:13Speaker 01

  It's under a dollar, right?

• 10:15Speaker 02

  You guessed it, Amiga Oil and Gas, and just under a dollar. So, you know, it's still.

• 10:21Speaker 01

  We like to keep you on your toes.

• 10:23Speaker 02

  Look, I don't want to split hairs too much about that, do I?

• 10:26Speaker 01

  I don't have that many to split, so it's fine.

• 10:28Speaker 02

  At the moment, it's down at sixty eight and a half cents. So it could come back a little bit, we can see there. This is actually a high-growth exploration story focused on Queensland's Tarum Trough. Amiga has one hundred and two million cash, no debt, fully funded multi-well drilling programme. Catalyst is the upcoming drilling and flow test results. This is a key time, really, for these stocks, could materially increase the resource case. Risk exploration results can disappoint, and that's something to be really mindful of when playing in this area of the market. And the valuation is highly sensitive to the drilling outcomes, obviously. So just looking at that monthly chart and what's been going on.

• 11:09Speaker 02

  And when news comes out, often this can actually cause the price to rise. So in the last year, let's say for the last twelve months, it's already up sixty five, sixty six percent. But it actually did get as high as one sixty percent for the calendar year. Now, it's really interesting when you see these stocks pull back, as this one has, and how far it's actually pulled back. Because this is actually the biggest fall that it's had. And we're just about to see some news come out that's so critical for this stock. You know, that you would think it would actually be doing the opposite. You would think you would be back here and it would be running on. So this is where, it's something to watch because it's actually just come back to the angle of that overall trend, which is nice to see.

• 11:55Speaker 02

  It's down around fifty five percent. Some of you will be looking at this and you'll see a number of things on the chart. If you've done our courses, you'll be ticking those boxes, which is critical when you're going into any trade. It's about actually ticking off the things that are mission critical to you and not getting too confused by a lot of things that like indicators, things that we don't focus on, because that's where the confusion comes in for a lot of people. And if we look at what's going on, we can see that there's probably a decent support around that sixty cent mark. It might not come back that far, and if it doesn't, that's great as well. I would like to see it dip back below closer to sixty, sort of around sixty two cents and then start moving back up.

• 12:37Speaker 02

  But if it does that and it finds support from around this point here, then to the high, it's still around seventy percent upside. But it's about how do you set that, the right strategy to reduce your risk and also maximize the upside. And we were having some discussions about this in the mentoring. And just looking at the stock, I can see a whole lot of things that tick boxes.

• 13:02Speaker 02

  And it could be coming back to a really important level of support right now, even more conservative. If you were more conservative about going into this stock, it's potentially still got around thirty percent upside to that high. So.

• 13:15Speaker 01

  So you were talking with a mentor, with one of your mentees?

• 13:18Speaker 02

  Not this stock, but just some of the things that I can see on this chart. You know, where you're ticking the boxes to make sure that you've got a whole lot of your ducks all in a row before you go into a stock. This stock actually does tick that, and it's now waiting for the setup. So you could have a number of things that you're ticking off, and then it's just about, you know, what's the risk? And what's the reward? And what's the setup before you go to get in?

• 13:42Speaker 01

  Yeah, I think, I mean, obviously you've got it on the chart, you know, the risk is it's relying on drilling and things like that. And only last week I had one of my mates and he's talking about this stock and he goes, oh, it's gonna do this, it's gonna do that. And I said, mate, I can't gonna do anything. He's like, it's irrelevant what it's gonna do, it's what is it doing and what can you prove it's doing? Because that's when the, when it's gonna do, then it's all speculation, isn't it?

• 14:06Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 14:07Speaker 01

  So, and what you're seeing on the chart is telling us that it's not, the gonna do's is not really showing anything on the chart at the moment.

• 14:15Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, it's actually pulling back. So people, some people will be trying to buy it because they know that the news is coming up. But if the news is negative, it could just as easily come all the way back down to that low.

• 14:26Speaker 01

  So what tip can you give somebody on a stock like this, or this sort of situation?

• 14:30Speaker 02

  First things is have a good entry strategy.

• 14:33Speaker 01

  Yep.

• 14:33Speaker 02

  Make sure that you understand the risk you're taking and the opportunity and that that justifies the risk that you're taking.

• 14:40Speaker 01

  Good, wise words. Now, I'm sure we've got another stock, Phil?

• 14:42Speaker 03

  We've got another energy stock, we're gonna move into the healthcare ones a little later. But this one, another one, in terms of opportunity, it's sitting at a level that, you know, is quite interesting. I mean, the fact that it's pulled back so far, which is at this level at ten cents, I believe. And look how strong that level's been. I mean, for these cyclical energy type players, you've got to think, you know, what is the best strategy moving forward? Or to employ on a cyclical stock? Because it's very different to a strategy that you employ on a growth stock. Someone looking at a growth stock may think, well, if it's fallen back this far, that's not often a good sign. But a cyclical stock that repeats, you know, these types of moves, it means something completely.

• 15:27Speaker 03

  It could mean something completely different. Yeah, I know you've spoken about it a lot in.

• 15:31Speaker 01

  Love that stuff.

• 15:32Speaker 03

  Back in the day, but.

• 15:34Speaker 01

  I'm not that old.

• 15:35Speaker 03

  No, well, yeah, I meant a few years ago.

• 15:37Speaker 01

  Back, back, pre-millennial.

• 15:42Speaker 03

  Yeah, but what's exciting about this one right now, well, I'll get into what it does. Perth Basin Gas Developer, again, with reserves at West Irregular and development planning underway. The catalyst is progress towards FID gas processing agreements and future development wells. The risk is first gas is still years away, so funding approvals and project delays remain important. And the share price shows that naturally, I mean, it is higher risk.

• 16:09Speaker 01

  Challenge with these sorts of stocks, though, what is it?

• 16:11Speaker 03

  Well, a lot of the time, these stocks, for me, when you're looking at them, you're really just, you've got to ask the question, why am I buying something like this? Really, what am I doing? Am I trying to just trade price action? Am I trying to buy the story and say, well, I think it's cheap at eleven cents? And I'm gonna believe that they're going to get to their first pour or they're gonna, you know? And for me, that, again, is what you spoke about earlier, is that's the unknown. Because even if they do all of that, unless real money goes behind it from the institutional end, it's not gonna mean crap. Because you might, you'll get a bit of retail coming, you'll see a quick spike, and then it'll get sold off just as quick. So there are so many things that need to happen. But at the end of the day, it comes back down to the person to say, okay, why am I trading this?

• 16:56Speaker 03

  What's my expectation? And if I focus on the thing that matters most, which is price, I can keep myself safe in this environment. Because I think you can trade these stocks. A lot of people say, oh, I'm not gonna touch them because they look volatile. Yeah, but volatility can also be a friend when you know what you're doing.

• 17:14Speaker 03

  So then that comes back down to the person, you have to understand yourself and say, all right, am I skilled enough? Do I have the right strategy? Do I know what I want out of this stock? And how good am I at selling? Because if you're not good at selling with these stocks, you're gonna get slaughtered.

• 17:24Speaker 01

  It's a bit of both, isn't it? It's about, I know the challenge with these stocks, because I've traded these stocks before. It's about what's your strategy to get in and what's your strategy to get out? And I remember chatting with a student many, many years ago, and they go, have a look at this stock, here's my strategy. You know, this is my buy, and I went, great, so how do you get out? And he went, what do you mean? I said, look, every time you buy, I said, what's your strategy to get out? Because it would go screaming up on his strategy, but then it would just go plummeting straight down. Without any exit strategy, it would just go the opposite way. I said, have you tested that yet? And he went, no. And I said, well, just because you can get in doesn't mean you can get out. So it's having that both, getting in and getting out, and making sure you're capturing that profit.

• 18:05Speaker 01

  And I think that's where these sort of stocks, you do need to be a little bit, a lot more astute in what you're doing and have better rules. And but more than that, it's consistency of being able to apply the rules.

• 18:16Speaker 03

  And emotional, you know, emotional strength to be able to understand that at any one time, this could go against you with no reason. But you've got to be willing to accept that this is the stock you're trading, this is the world and go, well, you know what? I'm playing in this field, I accept all the risks that come with this end of the market.

• 18:36Speaker 01

  I agree, it sounds like going to McDonald's.

• 18:40Speaker 03

  They're different risks.

• 18:42Speaker 01

  Have you finished with this?

• 18:43Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 18:43Speaker 01

  Cool, anyway, if you do want to get the skills to learn how to understand the stock market, build your portfolio, get a copy of my book, How to Bet to Manage Funds by Twenty Percent. The book's for free, you've just got to pay the shipping. So if you go to a link in the description below, you'll be able to get your copy. And it's amazing, this is a bestseller, it's been out for twenty years. And the information, it is still just as relevant today as it was when I first wrote it. In fact, I get every month, I get so many different emails from people saying, wow, how much their investing and trading has turned around? And how much they've got more confidence in the market. So click the link below and grab your copy. But stick around because we've still got a lot more stocks to cover. And if you do want the deep analysis behind the moves, our YouTube members get the full picture each week.

• 19:28Speaker 01

  Now, key market index analysis, sector strength, individual stock opportunities and advanced market rotation analysis, designed to uncover where the momentum could be shifting next. Now, here's a quick look.

• 19:41Speaker 03

  Were clues that the market was failing. Now we've broken through the momentum and we're walking into that 88, 8700 level.

• 19:50Speaker 04

  Uranium stocks had a little bit of a dampening of their rise. We've got a little bit of a reversal happening here.

• 19:57Speaker 03

  No surprise, oil, energy up 2.39%. But look at our sector, it's performing another one of these compressions right now.

• 20:06Speaker 01

  Now that's just a taste of our dedicated weekly market wrap plus bonus extension content and additional stock opportunities. You won't see in our free YouTube shows. Now it's all available to YouTube members. But now let's get back into our trending topic or get into our trending topic this week. Now, Janine, Phil, a little birdie told me you had a rip of this week.

• 20:28Speaker 02

  I do actually, something that a lot of people are interested in. Now, when politicians get involved in matters that could affect the price of your stocks, you've got to stop and take a look. Greens think tank proposes publicly owned supermarkets to challenge the Coles and Woolworths duopoly. What the? I know many of you will have a very passionate response to that. Now, before we take a look at Woolies' share price and whether you're about to get a bargain, if governments cannot fix petrol prices, how on earth are they going to fix supermarket prices? As energy costs rise, so does everything else. So let's leave creating lower prices to people who know something about that. Coles and Woolies, well, that's what they say.

• 21:12Speaker 02

  Oh, and let's not forget Costco and Aldi. And now Adrian Portally has broken into the market with LMCT plus supermarkets and snapped up his first IGA store to create a new offline supermarket. But it could take decades for him to make a difference for more of us. If he's patient and waits for the next market crash, he'll probably snap up a few stores at a bargain price. The question for you right now is not about the things you cannot control, it's about what you can. Learn to trade the market, you'll find bargains that could be worth a lot more than what you hope to save on your grocery bill. So are Woolworths' shares still a bargain or are they about to get cheaper?

• 21:55Speaker 02

  Before we take a look at the charts, back in January Goldman Sachs had a buy rating on Woolworths, noting that the Aussie supermarket segment more broadly is approaching a turning point and improving product and shelf availability. Goldman Sachs analyst Peter Marks had a $37 price target on Woolworths' shares. More recently, brokers are divided. Shaw and Partners has a sell rating and said it could struggle. Bell Potter sees 4235 as its price target and Morgan's 4350 and mentioned sustained sales growth. So let's take a look at the charts.

• 22:31Speaker 01

  All right, so we're going to bring up Woolworths. They don't make much money out of me, Janine.

• 22:36Speaker 01

  I buy very little at Woolworths.

• 22:38Speaker 02

  All right.

• 22:39Speaker 01

  Or Coles.

• 22:40Speaker 02

  We can see what this, what they were talking about. Now, what Goldman said was from January, you know, that they were expecting a $37 target and it did actually get to there. And I always laugh when I see Goldman Sachs come out and say the price is going to go to a certain level because, hey, it usually does. Right? And so this is what happened with Woolies' shares, but since then it's come back to that. I think it'll settle down a little bit in the, in the near term. You know, one broker was saying sell. Yep. And I think they're right for a short term perspective, there is going to be some short term downside, just a little bit and may come back to around that 35 ideally. That's what I'd like to see, could be a little bit more.

• 23:22Speaker 02

  But if it comes back to there, this is where the next opportunity is going to come in. The lower it pulls back, the better the opportunity is going to be for the next rise. Now, if we have a look at what's going on with Woolies, we can see that there's a bit of congestion through here. You know, they didn't pick $37 without having a good reason, but around $36 is where there's a lot of, you know, that's where historically over that period where the stock seemed to want to resonate to. But we don't look at things in simply just one line. You know, this is what our students come to realise when they come to talk to us, that sometimes stocks do turn on a dime. They will, if you do your analysis really well, you can find specific levels that stocks will turn on.

• 24:06Speaker 02

  I know you've seen that yourself, Dale, so many times where stocks have come up and done that. But it's about finding that we could see Woolies come back to settle on either of these lines as it starts to pull back. I don't think it's going to hold up. There's, there's a couple of the brokers, as we said, are seeing higher prices up in the 40s, which I do think is possible. So if we look at the next run, just say the low comes in here and we're talking about a $43 price target, that's a 20% upside. But I think they're being a little bit cute personally in terms of their assessment about where Woolies could go. Because if we see Woolies consolidate around these levels and then start to move higher, I don't think it's just going to take out this high.

• 24:49Speaker 02

  I think it's going, going to head a lot higher over time. If our market goes into this full swing with energy and AI still being talked up in the US, they're still expecting great gains over there and it's going to flow on to our market as well going forward. I'm still expecting our market to be bullish into 2027. I look back at what Woolies did in 2007. It went all the way up to December 2007. Now, we know it ran on longer. It didn't run on quite as long as the resources stocks did, but it still ran on quite a lot longer than what some might have expected it to, to do, which I'd expect Woolies to be going up into 2027.

• 25:31Speaker 02

  I still think it's got potential to head closer to $48. That's my call at the moment.

• 25:37Speaker 01

  Look, I've got a couple of questions. One is, is the word cute a new financial term, is it?

• 25:47Speaker 02

  Is that all he's got from that? So seriously, come on, is that all you got?

• 25:51Speaker 01

  The second thing is at the start of it, you were talking about the Greens and I thought, oh, finally we're getting into a great political one.

• 25:57Speaker 02

  Yeah, I know you like those.

• 26:00Speaker 01

  And just talk about Woolworths. So it's like, jeez.

• 26:04Speaker 01

  No, but look, I mean, the Greens had a different energy policy. The grocery prices will be a hell of a lot cheaper, that's for sure.

• 26:11Speaker 02

  Oh, my podcast is going to cover some of that.

• 26:13Speaker 01

  Your podcast. So I hope you get fired up on your soapbox because I just like, like the amount of money we're paying for fuel and diesel and everything else, it's just ridiculous.

• 26:22Speaker 02

  I still come back to what it costs for a bottle of water and I do that comparison.

• 26:26Speaker 01

  Well, you can almost buy Coke cheaper than water and they've got to put stuff in the water to give you Coke, don't they? Literally. So I can't believe how much they charge for water. Anyway, just go to the tap or the hose like I used to as a kid. Anyway, but if you do want the skills to analyse stocks, just like you've seen tonight, visit our website, wealthwithin.com.au. But now it's time to get back into our topic and some more stocks. I'm going to go to Phil to give Janine a bit of a break.

• 26:51Speaker 03

  All right, let's go. We've got IMR, I believe. This is.

• 26:57Speaker 01

  Imicall Medical.

• 26:59Speaker 03

  Yes, Imicall Medical Systems is basically a med tech company commercialising MRI guided cardiac procedures, reducing reliance on traditional X-ray catheterisation. Catalyst growing US adoption, new hospital orders and further FDA approvals. Risk, commercial uptake is still early and the share price can react sharply if adoption or regulatory milestones disappoint. Very much like every stock looking for FDA.

• 27:25Speaker 01

  That was pretty good how you said all that. And when we do our micro cap conference wrap up.

• 27:28Speaker 03

  I'm going to hate it.

• 27:30Speaker 01

  I'm going to give you all those tough words.

• 27:32Speaker 03

  Well, Janine's coming this week, this time, so.

• 27:34Speaker 02

  Not to the wrap up.

• 27:36Speaker 03

  Yeah, come on.

• 27:38Speaker 01

  Some of the words, you know, some of the, describing some of those companies on their last ones, I was like, geez. You know, you needed to have a PhD just to read the word, let alone.

• 27:47Speaker 02

  I can remember coming to one of the conferences years ago and I was so interested in some of the things that the CEOs were saying about their.

• 27:53Speaker 01

  It was great.

• 27:54Speaker 02

  You know, what they're doing, it's just fascinating.

• 27:56Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah. Like, I mean, I've had a look at the list and there's some really interesting companies this time, so I'm looking forward to that.

• 28:02Speaker 03

  Is there a guy there again this time? The mushroom man?

• 28:04Speaker 01

  The mushroom man, yes, that psychedelics.

• 28:06Speaker 03

  Psychedelics.

• 28:07Speaker 02

  Oh, really?

• 28:07Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, yeah. It was in the psilocybin and that was one of the tough ones that I've learned. I had to say that about 100 times before I've turned the camera on psilocybin. But yeah, very, very good. But there are a lot of the, some really good ones. But anyway, I digress.

• 28:21Speaker 03

  Yes.

• 28:22Speaker 01

  But if you do want a ticket to the micro cap conference, just email us, [email protected].

• 28:26Speaker 03

  Beautiful. All right, now this one here looks very interesting at the moment. Obviously, we're, we've got a few things happening. I'll just bring up that weekly chart for now because it's a stock like, very typical reaction that you see IPO, that initial euphoria, then it corrects, finds a base and now breaking up. What's interesting is we've had really big volume come over on the 25th of September, or sorry, the 18th, which coincides with this period through here.

• 28:50Speaker 01

  Huge.

• 28:51Speaker 03

  Massive, yeah, massive volume. And previous times in history when we've seen that kind of huge volume, it's often coincided with the low, a serious move up. So, I mean, even back through here when price was relatively fresh, you can see just before the move up, just before the big move up and just before the next move up. So are we sitting at, given the price has been falling, another major turning point? Well, there are a few things, and this is the beautiful thing about technical analysis style and charting and knowing how to draw these lines correctly is that. Without knowing any of that stuff, if I just applied some of these lines, and I know this is not exactly, our students will look at this and go, well, you're not applying it correctly. Well, I'm just giving a rough guide.

• 29:30Speaker 01

  You just haven't taught them how you apply it.

• 29:32Speaker 03

  Well, no, no, no, we do, we do have.

• 29:35Speaker 02

  For a few drinks.

• 29:35Speaker 03

  We do, yeah.

• 29:38Speaker 01

  Phil's a rebel.

• 29:40Speaker 03

  No, but I think what it shows, if we go to the chart, what it really shows is that that gradient of rise has been so important, it's always gravitated back to there before getting a move up. I mean, look how solid it's been back in April twenty five, again through there. Now we've dipped back a little bit lower. So I'd be watching if it can claw its way back above this line, about that one seventy seven, seventy eight. This looks like it might be getting back into that trend because, boy, it's come to some really important levels. And we're going to find out whether all this previous resistance that the price was struggling to get through, once it finally got through with that really nice pop on that gap through there, showing how strong volume was, now we're going to find out whether buyers are really going to accept and beat those sellers that said no for so long. So

• 30:25Speaker 03

  I really need it to hold this one fifty five, break one seventy, and this one looks pretty good.

• 30:30Speaker 01

  Oh, I like it. So I thought you were going to do an announcements, like if you want to learn how to do Phil's momentum lines, it's in our advanced advanced.

• 30:37Speaker 03

  You've already, you've already created, you've created all that stuff, mate. I'm not going over it again. Go and do the diploma, you'll find it all there.

• 30:45Speaker 02

  Well, I had someone else say that they wanted to come along and be in your mentoring.

• 30:48Speaker 03

  All right, yeah, got another one?

• 30:49Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 30:50Speaker 03

  Yep, cool.

• 30:51Speaker 01

  The more the merrier.

• 30:52Speaker 03

  The more the merrier.

• 30:53Speaker 01

  Cool. All right, Janine, your turn.

• 30:55Speaker 02

  All right, next one. Four D X Lung Imaging Technology Company expanding its U S footprint with advanced functional imaging and A I based diagnostic tools. Catalyst increasing U S adoption partnerships and broader use of its C T V Q platform. Risk, the stock has already rerated strongly, making expectations high and leaving it vulnerable if revenue growth slows. Now, I mean, it's obviously had a readjustment. We're seeing it sort of consolidating around this four dollar level, which is good. It's taking a breather, and that's fine. We're quite happy to see stocks after they do a big run like that, make that move up. Whether it actually holds there and continues sideways before the next

• 31:40Speaker 02

  move up, that remains to be seen. But this is a news driven type stock, for sure.

• 31:45Speaker 03

  Would it be crazy if I told you, or someone actually requested this yesterday when we had our Monday show, but this is one of the most shorted stocks on the A S X.

• 31:53Speaker 02

  Oh, that's unbelievable, isn't it? Yeah, okay, why? I would be asking at this point.

• 31:59Speaker 01

  Yeah, I saw the comments yesterday on the report for yesterday, because Phil, yesterday's report here on YouTube, he was talking about the shorted stocks.

• 32:05Speaker 02

  Well, that'll be interesting to see if there's a short squeeze that comes in here and they get caught out, won't it?

• 32:10Speaker 03

  Exactly, yeah.

• 32:11Speaker 02

  And that's the thing, when there's news and there's news driven stocks and something changes, all of a sudden, you could really get caught out. And someone said to me the other day, I really want to know how to short. And I said, you know, are you sure this is what your biggest challenge is? And what you're talking through, what the biggest challenge is? It's nothing to do with what you're going to trade next. It's got to do with how they're thinking about the stock market and themselves, their psychology, and how they respond or react. In the case of a lot of people, they react rather than respond.

• 32:42Speaker 03

  Yes.

• 32:43Speaker 02

  So it's about how you respond to this setup on the chart and how you prepare yourself, not about, at this point, whether you're going to short or go long.

• 32:52Speaker 03

  But if you've got structure and you can trade long, you can just as easily trade short. People make it more complex than it needs to be. Get one part right, the rest is easy.

• 33:02Speaker 01

  You know that masterclass that I'm going to do for our YouTube members?

• 33:06Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 33:06Speaker 01

  Which I'm hoping I'm going to do in another week or two. Basically, I'm trading for cash flow. And I had Pedro do some research for me, or Phil did it two years ago for me, all right, where basically if a stock has a higher low, what does it do? And we're only using the top twenty stocks. In twenty twenty four, there were fifty something times a top twenty stock made a higher low, then shot up by, I think it was nearly eight percent. And in twenty twenty five, it was a hundred. So it's like, how many opportunities do you need to get into a good stock? These are just the top twenty stocks. So I'm going to be showing people when I do that masterclass. It's actually going to be a two part masterclass because there's so many slides that I've gotten, so much I want to tell people and

• 33:50Speaker 01

  show people just that you just don't have to do what a lot of people do. What a lot of people I find is there's so much information out there. And then they go, oh, I've got to trade short, or I've got to trade short term, I've got to trade intraday, I've got to have live data, I've got to trade FX, I've got to trade this, I've got to trade that, because they're in all these YouTube videos or chat forums and they're listening to people. But really, what you're saying, or what the guts of what I thought Phil was saying, was just focus. Have a laser like focus and stick to a plan.

• 34:20Speaker 03

  Yeah, I heard a very important investor, I can't remember what his name was, but he'd been around.

• 34:26Speaker 01

  Dale.

• 34:26Speaker 03

  Dale, yes.

• 34:29Speaker 03

  He'd been around, he's a fund manager, been around for, Taleb, I think his name was. But he'd been around.

• 34:34Speaker 01

  Taleb Dale.

• 34:35Speaker 03

  Taleb Dale, yeah. But been around a long time in the markets, you know, big hedge fund manager. And he said, he was doing a speech with a bunch of uni students that wanted to get into stocks or trading. And they said, you know, what do you suggest? What's your biggest advice you can give us? And he said, really? Be a good one trick pony. And I said, what do you mean by that? He said, just be good at one thing. Get your strategy, understand it, and be good at it. You don't need to know a million ways to skin this cat. You just need to be confident and know one way, but a way that is real, you know? And that was so powerful. I was like, you know, this guy's right. Because going through the experience, it's so true. Because not, just knowing a lot, like you said, it's not going to make you better.

• 35:21Speaker 01

  Having a lot of information.

• 35:22Speaker 03

  Can destroy you sometimes.

• 35:23Speaker 01

  Doesn't make you a trader. I think that's the problem we have at the moment is with phones and, you know, tablets, all that sort of stuff. People get so much information. And they have this information and they're putting this filter on it that I've got knowledge, but that still doesn't make you a trader. You know, you can have a lot of knowledge, but still not be a very good trader.

• 35:42Speaker 03

  A I makes it worse.

• 35:43Speaker 02

  And A I is producing reports. And I was talking to someone only yesterday about this, producing a report to tell them what all the brokers think. I said, how's that going to help you?

• 35:53Speaker 03

  Not.

• 35:53Speaker 02

  You know, if you've got knowledge and you can analyze a chart, you're going to be ahead of these people and be able to see what's actually happening.

• 36:00Speaker 01

  You know how many times I argue with Chat G P T? I was doing it yesterday. It was saying you can't say that you can increase profits and reduce risk or and reduce losses or trade more consistently. And I said, why? And it said, it gave me some reasonings from the internet sphere. And I went, you're totally wrong, because if a trader does this and this and this, then they're consistent or they're more profitable if they do this. And they goes, oh, yes, you're right. But it's wrong all the time. Like, literally every week, I'm arguing with Chat G P T, because I ask it these questions that I think people out there would be asking it to see what it's telling me. And because obviously we need to be on top of it. So now I'm going to start to train A I with, because what

• 36:45Speaker 01

  it's doing is overlaying what the big end of town does and thinking that retail traders do that. And we don't, we're completely different. We have a whole lot of different tools and skills and that we can use, and so much more advantage than a big fund manager, too. So you can't overlay that on it, but doesn't mean an individual can't be good as or better than all the fund managers out there either. And they can, and we prove that all the time. And one is, it was just, what was that? One of our students in Yahoo Finance, was it today?

• 37:13Speaker 03

  Yes, Annette, yeah.

• 37:14Speaker 01

  She's, like, she's nearly, what's she, fifty percent plus on herself managed super fund in the last twelve months. Like, seriously? That's awesome. And she hasn't even finished the course yet.

• 37:24Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 37:25Speaker 01

  So anyway, have you finished on the stock before I keep going?

• 37:30Speaker 02

  I haven't even started.

• 37:31Speaker 01

  I keep interrupting you.

• 37:32Speaker 02

  I'm only kidding. Look, it's just about the upside, really, is the next thing. And where could this go? If it turns around and heads back through this level here, it could still meet a little bit of short term resistance, but there's plenty of upside in it if it does get going. So that's the real question. And the low here, you know, it's protected by this line at this point in time. So it's about seeing, well, you know, which way is it going to go? If it goes below that low, then we know, just stay away. If it goes up, and often people do the contrary, don't they? They'll be looking to try to buy it if it goes down.

• 38:06Speaker 01

  Yeah, absolutely, absolutely.

• 38:09Speaker 01

  So it's going down?

• 38:11Speaker 02

  So at the moment it's sideways.

• 38:12Speaker 01

  It's going down. It's going sideways. Have you finished now?

• 38:16Speaker 02

  Let the chart tell you what it's going to do.

• 38:18Speaker 01

  Good idea. But that's why we asked Janine. You're supposed to tell us. Have you finished with it?

• 38:23Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 38:23Speaker 01

  Can I move on?

• 38:24Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 38:24Speaker 01

  Okay, Philip, you can have your talk.

• 38:25Speaker 03

  Let's go. Next one, PYC. Now, this is called PYC Therapeutics Limited. It's a clinical-stage biotech developing RNA therapies for rare genetic diseases with multiple programs progressing through human trials. The catalyst, upcoming clinical data from its kidney and eye disease programs, including RP11 data, expected in Q4 2026. So keep an eye out for this. This is very relevant. And the risk is obviously the outcome of that clinical trial. A binary and disappointing safety or efficacy data could materially impact the share price. So, I mean, right now, there's been really strong buying and through this one, it's supported greatly. It's broken out through a really important level.

• 39:08Speaker 03

  I mean, this one struggled for a long time to get through two bucks. It's done it now. Again, it's really back at that IPO price, which is what had been holding it up. I'll just zoom out on that monthly chart. Near that IPO price, two bucks. Often the case, that's the market because that's initially what the market thought it was worth. And then when it goes above and below, you really find out whether this time, years, years later, that it's finally going to be accepted above that. And right now, this is the first time in forever that we're seeing price above that IPO price. So as long as it holds two bucks, that's telling me a lot about how strong buyers and how much they think this could go forward. And it could challenge $4 very easily. But it's one thing where it can get to. It's two things, how it's going to get there.

• 39:53Speaker 03

  And unfortunately for you as a trader, looking in this situation right now, if you want to get in, the most important thing is how you structure your risk, where you place your stop. Because you might be right. It could get to four bucks, but don't expect it to go in a straight line. Because if it pulls back a bit deeper than where you've placed your stop, you get stopped out and the trade still goes your direction.

• 40:12Speaker 01

  Well, at the moment, you could say that the general consensus is they're expecting a good result.

• 40:17Speaker 03

  You would think so, yeah, for sure.

• 40:19Speaker 01

  But that could be a lot of speculators pushing it higher. Because I remember, that's numerous times I've seen that, haven't we, Janine? Where, oh, this stock's going to get FDA approval for X. And the stock shoots up and then it doesn't get the approval, then it shoots down again, and then it shoots up again, and then it shoots down again. So.

• 40:35Speaker 03

  And funny things happen around earnings because, you know, even if the news is great and, you know, it beats expectations, you still could see the share price fall. Only four weeks or months later for it to then continue on in the direction that it was fundamentally said it should. So I think with this one where it is right now, the best thing is how you structure your trade. It's so important because you don't want to miss the opportunity, get stopped out and then kick yourself and go, well, you know, if I structured it better, then I would have reaped the rewards. So, yeah, watch that two bucks like a hawk and get some good structure in, and this one should do okay.

• 41:12Speaker 01

  All right. Moving on, shortly, we're going to answer your questions in our members area. So stick around for that. But now it's time to get into our hot stock tip for the week. Now, Phil, what have you got for us?

• 41:24Speaker 03

  All right. So the hot stock this week is Rocket Boots Limited, which announced today a very positive milestone with first store installations now underway in the US for its tier-one multinational retail customer. The important part here is it isn't the initial $138,000 invoice. It's that the company has now completed the integration phase and moved into actual commercial deployment. Once fully rolled out, the agreement is expected to generate around $9.1 million in annual recurring revenue, plus roughly $3.3 million in activation revenue. So overall, this is good news because it materially de-risks the contract and shows the rollout is progressing from signed agreement into revenue-generating installation.

• 42:06Speaker 03

  The main risk now, obviously, is simply execution and rollout timing. But let's get to the chart because what Rocket Boots do is in a very hot space right now. It basically uses AI and in-store cameras to help retailers detect theft and losses at places like self-checkouts with the software running through the cloud across large store networks.

• 42:30Speaker 01

  Yeah, that's interesting, then. That is very, very interesting because obviously you're doing your self-bleeping. You've got cameras freaking everywhere. You can't even get out the door things out of the self-checkout.

• 42:42Speaker 03

  Well, so many businesses are losing who knows how much through, you know, those self-checkouts and theft and.

• 42:48Speaker 01

  I've seen it.

• 42:48Speaker 03

  You know?

• 42:49Speaker 01

  I was in South Melbourne, Woolworths in South Melbourne, about two years ago. And I was standing there going bleep, bleep, bleep. And there was a girl next to me. And next minute, I look over and she's walked out. And I looked at her thing, she hadn't even paid. She just walked straight out.

• 43:02Speaker 02

  Oh, you're joking.

• 43:02Speaker 01

  And I went, hell. Like if I knew, like, because I was not watching. But if I was watching, I would have yelled out. But then you can't stop them anyway. So my local Woolworths now has these things, like these little bars going across where you walk in. So you can't walk out. Normally, they zoom, goes off, and then comes back again, the opening gates. And people used to be able to get out that way. Nowadays, you can't. This is like this, like a fish thing, like fish scale type thing. So you can't come back out of it once you go through it. So making people to do it and having the cameras and everything else. I think I shop at really bad Woolworths.

• 43:38Speaker 03

  Yeah, well, if they've got cameras everywhere.

• 43:40Speaker 01

  Fishes and.

• 43:41Speaker 03

  Yeah, but the company is, I mean, two things really stand out to me on that weekly chart. And it's very evident. I mean, we can really see the character of this stock changing before our eyes. Like something that was so illiquid for so long, really probably just retail-driven, waiting for this announcement to come. And you can see the transformation of the liquidity in price and coinciding with the transformation of the company, right? And so you're talking about 9.1 million annual recurring revenue from a company that was doing nothing. These are those success stories where things turn and it's, you know, huge growth can happen. So you look at the bars, really liquid choppy stuff. From this point onwards, you get more attention, more liquidity.

• 44:25Speaker 03

  The opens and closes tell you that there's more participation in this one. And the way this is unfolding, I mean, it's come back to where that really strong spike up in buying originally started. And that's the level I'd be watching because we've literally pulled back to that, bounced, found some buying. I mean, if I go to the daily, and I hope this is the updated data, but that's today's price action based on the news. Big volume, being supported, the market's loving it. Would I say one day is the reason to do something? Absolutely not. Because right now, the trend is still pointing downwards. I want to see a little bit more unfold. And when I see that, probably the way the sellers unfold next will tell me a lot about whether there's something nice to pick up on this one. But, boy, this whole pattern and everything about it looks very, very promising.

• 45:08Speaker 03

  I mean, move back to just one more thing, move back to that long-term trend. So there's a lot of stuff holding this up technically and one for the watch list for sure, for me.

• 45:17Speaker 01

  This sort of reminds me of a challenger monitoring group.

• 45:20Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 45:20Speaker 01

  Who are using AI with security cameras catching people. It's quite interesting.

• 45:25Speaker 03

  And even all the stuff that's happening now with AI and cybersecurity, like we did a show on it last week about how much spend's going to go into there. Big space.

• 45:32Speaker 01

  Very interesting space. Well, anyway, if you want to know what could actually burst the AI bubble, join us in the members section. We're breaking down the warning signs next.