#ICYMI - March Madness!

It’s time for the NCAA Division 1 Basketball Tournament, aka March Madness. To make sense of it all, hosts Chuck Nice and Gary O’Reilly welcome bracketologist Chris Dobbertean, and Prof. Alan Zaremba, author of “The Madness of March: Bonding and Betting with the Boys in Las Vegas.” Don’t miss an episode of Playing with Science. Subscribe on: iTunes Podcasts: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/playing-with-science/id1198280360?mt=2 Stitcher: http://www.stitcher.com/podcast/startalk/playing-with-science TuneIn: http://tunein.com/radio/Playing-with-Science-p952100/ SoundCloud: https://soundcloud.com/startalk_playing-with-science GooglePlay Music: https://play.google.com/music/listen?u=0#/ps/Iimke5bwpoh2nb25swchmw6kzjq NOTE: StarTalk All-Access subscribers can watch or listen to this entire episode commercial-free. Find out more at https://www.startalkradio.net/startalk-all-access/

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:09Gary O'Reilly?

  I'm Gary O'Reilly.

• 0:10Chuck Nice?

  And I'm Chuck Nice.

• 0:11Gary O'Reilly?

  And this is Playing with Science. Today, I think, we'll go just a little crazy and join in with March Madness. And why not? It's the sports event that will turn your office upside down, lower national productivity, and make someone an awful lot of money. Just maybe not those who do their brackets.

• 0:29Chuck Nice?

  That's so true. So now you know March Madness is already in full swing. We're a little late to the party, but that makes it even more exciting because for three weeks, America just eats, drinks, and sleeps college basketball, cheering on the giant killers, giving it up for the Cinderellas, and hoping that their college gets that fairy-tale ending and is crowned NCAA basketball champions.

• 0:53Gary O'Reilly?

  Yeah, right. But none of this can take place, so it seems, without a bracket. And to help us through to our final four is bracketologist Chris Dobbertean from Blogging the Bracket and Getting Us in Behind the Numbers and Real Madness of why we all go completely nuts this time of year is Professor Alan Zerember, author of The Madness of March.

• 1:13Chuck Nice?

  Yes, and keep an ear open as we just might be airing one of your questions throughout the show.

• 1:20Gary O'Reilly?

  I'm new to this. I'm new to the whole thing. I knew it existed, but I've never been around while it's happening. And I get it. I get the whole thing, the build-up, the help colleges structure schedules so as they can set themselves up to a better run-in, to get invited to the big show.

• 1:38Chuck Nice?

  Absolutely.

• 1:39Gary O'Reilly?

  And all the buzz, bubble teams, Cinderellas, those, if you don't get invited, tough. You're not going. There's no appeals committee on this one.

• 1:46Chuck Nice?

  And it's all about the underdogs. I mean, everybody loves to see the upsets, you know? Unless that busts your bracket, that's all that... But people just love this. You cannot walk by any bar in America during this time of year and not see college basketball up on the screen.

• 2:02Gary O'Reilly?

  Turn a TV on and not find a commercial for March Madness something or other.

• 2:06Chuck Nice?

  Yeah, absolutely. I actually just did a Buffalo Wild Wings March Madness commercial. Look for it.

• 2:13Gary O'Reilly?

  Anyone else feeling hungry? It's never a good day to be a chicken.

• 2:16Chuck Nice?

  Yeah, I probably. Exactly. That's funny. And I probably shouldn't have said that because it's not like they, they already paid me. So why am I plugging them?

• 2:24Gary O'Reilly?

  You like buffalo wings?

• 2:25Chuck Nice?

  Ah, I do.

• 2:26Gary O'Reilly?

  There you go. That's why you said it.

• 2:27Chuck Nice?

  There you go. Right.

• 2:28Gary O'Reilly?

  Okay, time to bring on our first guest, Chris Dobbertean. Welcome, Chris. Welcome to Playing with Science.

• 2:35Chuck Nice?

  Hey Chuck, hey Gary. Thanks for having me. So before we go any further, let's let the people know that you are the resident bracketologist and editor of blogging the bracket. You also cover college basketball and bracket breakdowns and predictions for sbnation.com. And I have actually seen you in action. We did a live bracket show last year. And let me just say for everybody watching and listening.

• 3:01Chuck Nice?

  This is not like BS for Chris. This is like a real thing. This is your life. Am I right? Yeah, during, from January to March, this is pretty much it. Yeah, man. And I watched you go through a painstaking process of putting together a bracket. And I gotta be honest.

• 3:24Chuck Nice?

  It was not fun to watch. You guys are putting, I mean, you guys are really working when you do this.

• 3:30Gary O'Reilly?

  Pro.

• 3:31Chuck Nice?

  You're a pro.

• 3:32Gary O'Reilly?

  This is a school day.

• 3:32Chuck Nice?

  Right.

• 3:33Gary O'Reilly?

  I'm in the front row of the class because bracketology is a new part of the English language for me. I do believe I had been recently informed it is in the Oxford English Dictionary. So I am not about to criticize that in any way.

• 3:45Chuck Nice?

  Right.

• 3:45Gary O'Reilly?

  But I get it. But I have yet to experience it. So.

• 3:51Chuck Nice?

  Okay.

• 3:51Gary O'Reilly?

  Let's do that. I'm really looking forward to this because there's a bubble team. What?

• 3:55Chuck Nice?

  Right.

• 3:56Gary O'Reilly?

  Cinderella. I understand. Yeah. Uh, but the elite eight?

• 4:01Chuck Nice?

  Yes.

• 4:02Gary O'Reilly?

  Why isn't it super eight? Don't worry. Moving on. Sweet 16. So we've got these hot, I've got a new language to learn as well as everything else. So Chris, please bring it on.

• 4:10Chuck Nice?

  Let's, let's start with first of all, just explaining what the bracket is, bracketology is, and, and, and how you go about putting together a bracket.

• 4:19Speaker 02

  Well, every March, the the NCAA, which, you know, runs college sports in this country, puts on a 68-team championship. It used to be 64, then it went to 65, now it's 68, all for for basically for money reasons.

• 4:32Chuck Nice?

  Yep.

• 4:35Gary O'Reilly?

  Okay.

• 4:36Speaker 02

  Is, you know, there are the 68 teams, 32 qualify automatically by winning their conferences. They win a conference tournament, which is usually played this week, um, right before Selection Sunday, which this year is March the 12th. And the other 36 teams, there is a selection committee, which is the Division One Men's Basketball Committee, and they meet, they're meeting in New York right now as we're speaking. And they actually pick those 36 teams, they take those 36 teams and the 32 automatic bids, they rank those teams from 1 to 68 and place them into four regions, which have somewhere between 16 and 17 to 18 teams, because you might have two opening round games in the same region, but the goal is they have a first four on Tuesday and Wednesday of right after

• 5:20Speaker 02

  Selection Sunday, those four winners move on to the main bracket of 64, we have nice, you know, a nice solid bracket, four regions of 16 teams each. The winner of each of those regions moves on to the final four, and those two semifinal winners play off to win the national championship.

• 5:35Chuck Nice?

  Wow.

• 5:36Gary O'Reilly?

  Okay.

• 5:36Chuck Nice?

  Good job, man.

• 5:37Gary O'Reilly?

  Considering this is.

• 5:38Chuck Nice?

  That was a, that was a great breakdown, Chris.

• 5:41Gary O'Reilly?

  That even I understood that, so it was good. Um, I'm just wondering, with the current trend, is there a WikiLeaks for the selection already, has it been posted?

• 5:50Chuck Nice?

  Well, well, you see, you're joking, but Chris, go ahead and handle that. That's actually a real question you just asked. Go ahead.

• 5:56Speaker 02

  We scheduled our show last year so that it was supposed to be over, or, you know, we were supposed to be going in time for, you know, the selections to have been made already, but last year they decided to expand the selection show, which used to be an hour long to two hours.

• 6:12Chuck Nice?

  Ooh.

• 6:13Speaker 02

  And they drug it out. So we're sitting there and, you know, we're, we're, we're hearing, you know, matchups being, you know, announced, which we weren't expecting, and then all of a sudden. On Twitter, we see rumors that the bracket has been leaked.

• 6:26Chuck Nice?

  Yep.

• 6:26Gary O'Reilly?

  Oh.

• 6:27Speaker 02

  And it ended up being.

• 6:28Chuck Nice?

  And it was true. It was the correct bracket. It had been leaked. So there is a weekend.

• 6:35Gary O'Reilly?

  There is nothing sacred.

• 6:39Gary O'Reilly?

  You know what? You know you've made it when when your whole thing gets leaked and it's a big deal.

• 6:43Chuck Nice?

  Yeah, man.

• 6:44Gary O'Reilly?

  Yeah.

• 6:44Chuck Nice?

  Yeah. All right. So you just explained the process. That is the process, the selection process, the 32 automatic teams, the 36 selection committee teams, and then how they're put together to create the field of 64. Okay, now we've got this nice round field of 64. Okay, and it all starts out with everybody on the outsides of the brackets. Okay? How do you go about now moving inwards until you get to 16 Elite Eight, 4-2 Champion?

• 7:20Gary O'Reilly?

  Even before we get there, aren't there some variables that? Because you said 32 teams win their championships, the rest have to be invited? And if you don't get invited, don't complain. It's tough. Am I about right? So what are the criteria that you get selected on and invited?

• 7:38Speaker 02

  Well, the most important things, and this is something that's a little bit different this year, because we had we had a new twist to the process this year, where a month ago, February 12, the selection committee actually had for the first time a special on CBS, where they announced their top 16 teams at that point. Granted, those could change over the final month. But for those of us who do bracketology, it gave us a nice idea of kind of what they're looking for. And this year, it seems like quality wins, which are wins against teams that fit within the metric they use, which is called the Ratings Percentage Index, the RPI, which is, it's an old metric. It's been used for almost 30 years at this point. It's not basketball specific. Basketball people generally hate it.

• 8:21Speaker 02

  But it does a relatively recent job, decent job of telling you what teams have done, you know, into the season up to that point. It's not predictive, but it tells you, you know, this team, you know, has the first best, you know, schedule and performance, second best and so on. So they release those 16 teams. So we have a good idea now, you know, that quality wins, which are, which are wins against the top 50 teams in that RPI metric are kind of what the committee seems to want the most this year.

• 8:48Gary O'Reilly?

  Hmm.

• 8:49Speaker 02

  So, so, so when making those selections and trying to figure out what those 36 invited teams are going to be, some of them are very obvious because, you know, their record is good enough, they beat enough good teams, but as you get towards the end and you get towards the cut line between 36 and 37, it gets a little more muddy and you're wondering, you know, how do these teams play away from home? Because playing road games in neutral courts, it's a tougher environment and if you can win games in those environments, you're generally thought of as being a stronger team. Um, how do you do, how did you do in November and December? Because in college basketball, the season's really in two parts. In November, December, you, uh, it's games that you have to schedule yourself and then from January to March, your conference schedule those games.

• 9:32Gary O'Reilly?

  Okay, one second, Chris. What if you're a really good team, you don't win your championship, but you're in a weak conference?

• 9:39Speaker 02

  That's where the controversy usually comes in.

• 9:43Gary O'Reilly?

  Oh, good. I found controversy. Lovely. Unlike me to find the bad bit.

• 9:48Speaker 02

  And this always comes up because if you're in a weaker conference, a lot of the times if you're a stronger team and if you're historically strong, say like Wichita State out of Missouri Valley Conference.

• 9:58Gary O'Reilly?

  Yeah.

• 9:59Speaker 02

  Power conference teams, they don't want to play you. They don't want to play you at home. They don't want to go visit. They certainly don't want to go visit you.

• 10:05Gary O'Reilly?

  Oh, so they're sneaky with the schedule?

• 10:07Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 10:08Gary O'Reilly?

  Rascals.

• 10:09Speaker 02

  They are very sneaky with the scheduling. So, so this is the problem and this is always the controversy and the thing that we try to balance. Now the selection committee, the membership changes every year. They usually lose three or four people because they kind of rotate on and off. So you have to kind of figure out what their backgrounds are and what schools they've worked for and where they've worked for is you can kind of figure out their biases.

• 10:30Gary O'Reilly?

  Oh.

• 10:32Speaker 02

  And, and this year, we kind of suspect that the biases are going to be in favor of the power conference teams and not so much the mid-major teams. So they're going to be out of luck.

• 10:41Chuck Nice?

  Hmm.

• 10:42Gary O'Reilly?

  So there's a, there's an element of telepathy involved in, in mind reading.

• 10:46Chuck Nice?

  Yeah.

• 10:47Gary O'Reilly?

  This is real detective work, Chris.

• 10:49Speaker 02

  When I, when I was in grad school, I studied Supreme Court decisions and, you know, trying to figure out, you know, how justices would determine, would vote on cases based on their background, their political belief.

• 11:00Chuck Nice?

  Right.

• 11:00Speaker 02

  You know.

• 11:01Chuck Nice?

  The other briefs that they've, uh, the other dissents that they may have written or, or I, I got you.

• 11:05Speaker 02

  Exactly. And it's very similar to that.

• 11:08Gary O'Reilly?

  It's more profitable to be a bracketologist than it is to go into law.

• 11:12Speaker 02

  I wouldn't say that.

• 11:15Chuck Nice?

  You're like, no, let's not get crazy.

• 11:17Gary O'Reilly?

  Let's not get, alright. There are some mad numbers in and around March Madness.

• 11:22Chuck Nice?

  Right.

• 11:22Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 11:22Gary O'Reilly?

  But you carry on with the bracketology because this is my lesson for today.

• 11:25Chuck Nice?

  Okay. So now let's say you're putting together your bracket.

• 11:30Gary O'Reilly?

  Mm-hmm.

• 11:31Chuck Nice?

  Um, how, what do you want to look for and how do you want to go about that? Um, for those who are interested, first of all, you know, there's a lot of people who are putting together brackets because it's like an office thing.

• 11:42Gary O'Reilly?

  Mm-hmm.

• 11:43Chuck Nice?

  Everybody wants to, you know, everybody's putting their five dollars in or their ten dollars in and they're, they're picking their teams and, you know, a lot of people like me, you just pick the colors that you like the most, the team with the best colors or, you know, hey, look, I know that this team, their cheerleaders, awesome, I want to see them on CBS at some point. So those are the teams I'm picking. But if you're serious about it, how would you go about it?

• 12:06Gary O'Reilly?

  Okay, before you answer that, we bought a, if we've got a chance, we're gonna go round to Berkshire Hathaway and get a job. Because Warren Bu, what, I think you know where I'm going with this. Warren Buffett runs.

• 12:18Chuck Nice?

  Right.

• 12:18Gary O'Reilly?

  A bracket.

• 12:19Chuck Nice?

  Yes, he does.

• 12:19Gary O'Reilly?

  Cause he loves sports and probabilities. Now, if you predict the first thirty-two, you get a hundred thousand dollars.

• 12:27Chuck Nice?

  What?

• 12:27Gary O'Reilly?

  Get, no, no, no, this is, this isn't the kicker. The kicker is, you predict the sweet sixteen, you get a million dollars.

• 12:34Chuck Nice?

  What?

• 12:35Gary O'Reilly?

  Each year for the rest of your life.

• 12:37Chuck Nice?

  What?

• 12:37Gary O'Reilly?

  That could cost Warren about sixty call, but then again, I think he could afford it.

• 12:43Chuck Nice?

  Yeah.

• 12:43Gary O'Reilly?

  Sixty million dollars. Let's go, I think anyone who's got a chance, go round there now, get a job at

• 12:48Chuck Nice?

  I'm pretty sure there's.

• 12:49Gary O'Reilly?

  Berkshire Hathaway.

• 12:50Chuck Nice?

  I'm pretty sure there's. There's a pair of mom jeans sitting in Warren Buffett's dryer right now with 60 million dollars in it. I'm, I'm pretty sure about that. Chris.

• 12:58Gary O'Reilly?

  That's the one.

• 12:59Chuck Nice?

  My man.

• 12:59Gary O'Reilly?

  There you go.

• 13:00Chuck Nice?

  This is what I'm trying to say to you. Uh, can we please put together a plan with science bracket? That will make us a cool million dollars a year for the rest of our lives. All we have to do is get down to the sweet 16. That's it. Chris, you can do this.

• 13:14Speaker 02

  You, you, you think you can do it, but this event is just known for surprises every year. But that being said, there are some things that especially if you want to do a little bit of research can really help you out.

• 13:25Chuck Nice?

  Okay, go ahead.

• 13:26Speaker 02

  One, the first thing for me is that I always look for, especially when I'm looking for upsets. I look for teams that are lower seeded teams, especially, you know, 11, 12, 13 seed type teams. That have good senior leadership. They have, you know, previous tournament experience, you know, maybe they were there the year before and, you know, pushed a team really hard, you know, late. And they're getting a second chance. Um, good guards, you want to have good guards because they do a good job of, you know, distributing the ball and, and just, you know, taking care of things and, and keeping the offense ticking. That's another thing you want. A team that can shoot the three pointer. The three point shot is the great equalizer in college basketball. Uh, almost to the point where it's gotten crazy, but, but that's another thing you want to watch. So, so those are kind of some factors in terms of teams you want to keep an eye on.

• 14:11Chuck Nice?

  Oh, okay. So, and you know what, that, that, uh, that's very simple to follow. And, uh, just to recap, you know, uh, lower seeds, 13, around that. Uh, good leadership, which means you're looking for some seniors that have been there and they're experienced. Uh, previous tournament experience, and that means that they've been there before, so they don't have the, the big butterflies and the jitters. And when they get in front of the big crowd, they're not going to freak out and.

• 14:36Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 14:36Chuck Nice?

  Where's my mommy? Um, and then good guards, because you got to be able to, uh, run the offense. And good guards also give you clock management as well, which is very important.

• 14:46Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 14:46Chuck Nice?

  And, and then three point shooters, which is something I didn't, uh, ever consider, but I guess you're right. The whole game has changed that way.

• 14:52Gary O'Reilly?

  I would, I would add. Uh, from my own personal experience of, of sport. Injuries, potential injury, injury history and current injuries to key players. And then your disciplinary record. You might have a player with a talent off the chart, but he's not going to last 20 minutes on court because he's a bad boy.

• 15:12Speaker 02

  Oh, really?

• 15:13Gary O'Reilly?

  And then I'm gonna, I'm gonna go and tug the bad boy's ear every time I walk past him and he's gonna lose it. There's a penalty and he's out of the game before you know it. So that stuff, that, that's real drilling down from a scouting report. You must have files inches thick on each team.

• 15:29Speaker 02

  Well, that kind of goes into the next thing where you want to take a look at kind of how a team has been playing lately. You want to look at their schedule. You know, you want to look at those teams that happen to win both their conference regular season and tournament championships. The ones that got the automatic bids, but they also did the work during the regular season because those have been tested consistently. You know, they're, they're, they're strong, they're not going to get flustered. So that, that's one factor you want to look at. You also, if you really want to dig deep, you want to look at when, how teams play based on different tip off times. And I say this based on the performance of my alma mater, the University of Florida. Which, which plays really well at night. So week, so weeknight games, they usually do pretty well, but if they're scheduled for a Saturday afternoon, noon tip.

• 16:14Speaker 02

  Eh, not quite so good.

• 16:16Gary O'Reilly?

  Really?

• 16:16Speaker 02

  So if you really want to dig down, you can do that. And another factor you want to keep in mind, you want to look at where the games are being played in the tournament.

• 16:25Gary O'Reilly?

  Travel times.

• 16:26Speaker 02

  Yep, travel times, you want to be careful of teams that are from the West Coast going east, having to play a morning game.

• 16:32Gary O'Reilly?

  Right.

• 16:33Speaker 02

  And also you want to think of geographical considerations because of crowds. For example, two years ago, Providence played Dayton in Columbus, Ohio. And one of my friends yelled at me on Twitter saying, if I would have known this game was in Columbus, I wouldn't have taken Providence. I would have taken Dayton. And that's, that's the type of little things you want to keep in mind because teams might get unexpected home court advantages.

• 16:53Chuck Nice?

  Yeah, right.

• 16:54Speaker 02

  The committee draws up the bracket.

• 16:56Chuck Nice?

  Yeah, because you're right, the geography will determine who has the home court advantage because more of your fans will show up. And the travel time thing, you know, that's, that kind of is a factor in all sports. When you think about all sports, they all.

• 17:08Gary O'Reilly?

  Athletes who haven't had so much travel hardening. You know, if you're, if you're, if you're in the majors, you know, you live out of your suitcase.

• 17:17Chuck Nice?

  Yeah, but I'm saying even in the majors, they say like, if a west coast team is going east.

• 17:22Gary O'Reilly?

  It was always a problem.

• 17:23Chuck Nice?

  They're like, hey, don't even count this, don't, you know, if you're a west coast team and you're a really decent matchup, but you're coming east to play, let's say, um, uh, the Patriots, they're like, you're gonna get murdered, only because of the time difference.

• 17:36Gary O'Reilly?

  Traveling east is always the hardest one. Now, going to your old alma mater, Florida, my guess is biorhythms. So they're, they're geared up to playing a night, an evening tip off, right?

• 17:47Speaker 02

  That's right.

• 17:48Gary O'Reilly?

  Lunchtime, they're having pregame nap. They're having a little bit of a nap. So when it comes to an early tip off on, during the day, their biorhythm saying, sleepy time.

• 18:00Chuck Nice?

  Okay, well, they deserve to lose if they gotta take an afternoon nap. What the hell is this?

• 18:03Gary O'Reilly?

  Oh, no, no, standard practice.

• 18:04Chuck Nice?

  Damn romper room.

• 18:05Gary O'Reilly?

  Standard practice. You will go, you'll have a little lie down.

• 18:08Chuck Nice?

  Gotta have a nap.

• 18:09Gary O'Reilly?

  Go again.

• 18:10Chuck Nice?

  Yeah. All right, do you get milk and cookies too?

• 18:12Gary O'Reilly?

  No.

• 18:13Speaker 02

  But that is a very important thing to think of because this is one of the only, you know, events on the American calendar where games pretty much go from noon to midnight.

• 18:22Chuck Nice?

  Right.

• 18:23Speaker 02

  You know, on weekdays, you know, Thursday and Friday of the first and second rounds, you know, that weekend, it's all basketball from 12 to midnight, you know, for four straight days.

• 18:33Gary O'Reilly?

  So this, this isn't a guy who just says, you know what, I'm going with the color of the uniform. This is scientific.

• 18:37Chuck Nice?

  Well, no, I mean, I, I know what Chris does, so I'm, I'm totally fine with him.

• 18:40Gary O'Reilly?

  Like I said, I'm front row of the class here, I'm at school, so I'm seeing a scientific process here from how you construct your bracket.

• 18:48Chuck Nice?

  All right, so let's continue. So now, uh, after we've taken into a consideration, the geography, the times, the home court advantage, if that is the case or not, um, what, what else are we looking at? Are we looking at coaches at all? Are we looking at the administration at all? What are we looking at?

• 19:06Speaker 02

  You're looking more at coaches than the administration. You want to look at coaches who have.

• 19:11Chuck Nice?

  When I say administration, I mean the program. So like, for instance, when you have certain programs, when you look at like, North Carolina, that is a program. You know what I mean? It's like, I don't care what the coach is. I don't care who the players are. You know, they're going to probably be there in some way, shape or form. So you're looking at coaches, but not so much as the program itself.

• 19:33Speaker 02

  You're looking at both, but you know, it's it's odd because, you know, we especially this year, we seem to have a really strong year this year for traditional programs. North Carolina, Duke, Kentucky, UCLA, who are probably the four, and Kansas, probably the five greatest programs of all time are all, you know, going to be in the top three seed lines when the brackets revealed.

• 19:55Chuck Nice?

  Yeah, those are, okay.

• 19:57Speaker 02

  And then you throw in other, you know, kind of more new powers like Villanova, who won the national championship last year, who has two national championships in the past 30 years. Florida's another strong team that really isn't a great traditional power that really, you know, didn't do anything before 1987.

• 20:13Chuck Nice?

  Okay.

• 20:15Speaker 02

  You know, Notre Dame has gotten a lot better up from a basketball perspective. They're going to be the type of team to come down. Louisville's another strong traditional program. That's going to be very strong. Arizona, Oregon kind of goes into the into the new, you know, into the new rich category.

• 20:29Chuck Nice?

  Right.

• 20:30Speaker 02

  So, so yes, you've kind of got to, you know, look at, you know, kind of what's there and kind of how their their history is because, you know, I bring up the subject of Villanova, you know, going into last year, you know, their head coach Jay Wright was kind of known for being, you know, the best dressed guy in college basketball, but you know, people didn't really ever take them seriously when it came to actually, you know, making picks. They always kind of picked him to go out, you know, usually in the first weekend, usually in the round of 32. And they just surprised everybody and, you know, went all the way and won the title. And now, you know, Villanova, it's like, we forget all that past history. So, you know, you can have one really strong year and it really kind of, you know, takes out all that previous history and changes people's minds.

• 21:12Chuck Nice?

  All right. Well, listen, we're up against the the end of this. Verbal clock. Yeah, the clock is is is against us right now. So I I I don't want to put you on the spot, but I got to put you on the spot. I need to know what you're thinking and and who you're thinking about. Okay. So where, where are you looking in terms of your bracket? Let's just, give me an idea, cause I don't want you to tell me, cause I know you, you can't right now, because we're actually taping this long before anything has been announced. So you can't tell me anything right now. But, when this will air, our listeners will be hearing this, and we will be one week into the tournament.

• 21:54Gary O'Reilly?

  Yeah, Mount Madness will be in full swing.

• 21:57Chuck Nice?

  Full effect right now. So here's the fun that I want to have with you right now, Chris. I want you to put on your powers of prestidigitation and look one week into the tournament, and tell me who you think is going to be here today as our listeners hear our voices. Who do you think is going to be here? And just to be a little bit of a tease, I'm gonna give you a second to think about it, because we're gonna take a break, and when we come back, we're gonna get, uh, your particular, not predictions, but your, um, how can I put it?

• 22:33Gary O'Reilly?

  Shocks and certs.

• 22:34Chuck Nice?

  Yes, exactly. So we'll be back in a second, and Chris will tell us who is in the tournament right now.

• 22:40Gary O'Reilly?

  Get your pen and paper.

• 22:46Gary O'Reilly?

  Welcome back, I'm Gary O'Reilly. I'm Jack Nice. And this is Playing with Science, and today, we are leaping into the madness that is March. And with us via video call is our own personal bracketologist, Chris Dobbertean. So, have I said that right?

• 23:03Chuck Nice?

  Yes, Doberton.

• 23:03Gary O'Reilly?

  Dobbertean, yes.

• 23:05Chuck Nice?

  Dobbertean.

• 23:05Gary O'Reilly?

  Cause I'm at the moment pronouncing all the names incorrectly, so, uh, glad I got that one right.

• 23:10Chuck Nice?

  No, you got the other one right.

• 23:11Gary O'Reilly?

  Okay, so, shocks and certs, that's what we left our listeners with.

• 23:15Chuck Nice?

  Yes.

• 23:16Gary O'Reilly?

  Cliffhanger before the break, let's put them at ease.

• 23:20Chuck Nice?

  Well, no, before we get into that, uh, during the break, we had a, a great little discussion, and you pointed out, Gary, that Coke, uh, Coke.

• 23:29Gary O'Reilly?

  Now, wait, now you've got the mispronunciation.

• 23:30Chuck Nice?

  Yes, exactly, Coke and a Smile is actually gonna win the whole thing.

• 23:34Gary O'Reilly?

  Okay, Duke's coach, Mike K.

• 23:36Chuck Nice?

  Coach, Mike Shushevsky.

• 23:38Gary O'Reilly?

  Salary for 20. 2016.

• 23:39Chuck Nice?

  Salary for 2016 is.

• 23:41Gary O'Reilly?

  It has a seven and a three in it, people, and an awful lot of zeros.

• 23:45Chuck Nice?

  Yeah.

• 23:45Gary O'Reilly?

  Yeah.

• 23:46Chuck Nice?

  Seven million dollars a year, seven, 7.3 million dollars a year. Is that right, Chris?

• 23:52Speaker 02

  Yeah, and then you kind of factor in endorsements.

• 23:54Chuck Nice?

  Right.

• 23:54Gary O'Reilly?

  Oh, he gets endorsements as well?

• 23:56Speaker 02

  Yes, he does.

• 23:56Chuck Nice?

  He's the star of the team. Am I right? Wouldn't you say that Coach K is probably the biggest star of that program?

• 24:03Speaker 02

  Well, yeah, because now they're at the point where Duke used to be known for, you know, having guys staying four years and playing, you know, through their entire eligibility. Well, now they're, you know, churning out one and done players going to the NBA after a year or two. So, so he's the program. He's the guy. He is the guy who was there constantly. So.

• 24:20Chuck Nice?

  And when you think about it, I'm gonna say there's not a lot of coaches, I'm gonna say, are worth that kind of money. But when you think of the money that he generates for that school, they're not, they're only paying him, they're only paying him out of his own money. They're paying him out of his own pocket. He's making them a crap load more than seven million dollars.

• 24:38Gary O'Reilly?

  So he's realigned the Duke brand. He's reset the corporate thinking within that program. Amazing.

• 24:46Chuck Nice?

  Yeah, absolutely. All right.

• 24:48Gary O'Reilly?

  All right, brackets on, people.

• 24:49Chuck Nice?

  Let's get to the bracket, which is not really a bracket, because for those of you listening, we're gonna pull back the curtain here and let you in on a little secret. Uh, today, the tournament is nowhere near even announcing, okay, who's, uh, going to be in the tournament. So it is impossible for me to ask.

• 25:04Gary O'Reilly?

  Ricky Leaks haven't even hacked in yet.

• 25:05Chuck Nice?

  Right, they haven't even hacked in yet. We have no idea what's going on. It's impossible for us to ask Chris to give us who might be going against whom. But what I'm asking you to do is, uh, use your, uh, I'll say prescient powers and, uh, look into the future from now. And on March 24th, which is now, when our listeners are hearing us, so today is March 24th. I want you right now, Chris, I'm sorry, March 22nd, okay? Today is March 22nd. I want you right now to look into your crystal ball

• 25:44Chuck Nice?

  and tell me on March 22nd, today, who is still in this tournament, which is a lot more fun than the bracketology because you're just putting your ass on the line now.

• 25:55Speaker 02

  Well, for starters, I think we're looking at a potential Villanova-North Carolina national championship rematch. I think that that, I think that's a definite possibility.

• 26:03Chuck Nice?

  What?

• 26:05Speaker 02

  I think the Duke Blue Devils, though, are one of those teams that can kind of stand in the way because, you know, they're gonna, they're gonna be the type of team that can knock off, you know, either one and prevent that from happening. We could see, you know, a fourth North Carolina-Duke game in the Final Four. I think that's definitely a possibility.

• 26:22Chuck Nice?

  Okay.

• 26:23Speaker 02

  I think we're all waiting for Gonzaga to see if they can actually break through and make it to the Final Four out of the West Region, though they're gonna have a very tough test in the West Region final against.

• 26:32Chuck Nice?

  I can't, I can't let you do that, Chris. You gotta come, either commit to Gonzaga right now, because today is March 22nd. Are they here or are they gone?

• 26:41Speaker 02

  Well, yeah, they're, they're still around.

• 26:43Chuck Nice?

  Okay, they're still around. All right.

• 26:45Speaker 02

  Couple more games to play though before they can break down the Final Four wall.

• 26:47Chuck Nice?

  Okay.

• 26:48Speaker 02

  Which will be coming up over the weekend. I think that you're gonna, you're gonna be hearing the names UNC Wilmington, who pushed Duke last year in the first round, and Middle Tennessee, who was one of the better mid-majors in the country. And I think you're gonna be hearing those names, not necessarily to be playing still, but that they will have done damage during the first weekend.

• 27:07Chuck Nice?

  Wow, that's a bold pick right there, my friend. I like that. UNC Wilmington. Anybody-

• 27:12Gary O'Reilly?

  Tennessee have been on a good run of late. Didn't they have seven in a row wins or seven or eight?

• 27:18Speaker 02

  Yes, they, they have been very good all season, but they're really turning it on now because they don't want the committee to leave them out.

• 27:24Chuck Nice?

  Okay, so anybody else you're thinking in terms of, like, maybe Kentucky or any of these regular, like, UCLA or any of the, any of the big boys you think will still be here?

• 27:37Speaker 02

  I think Kentucky, Arizona, UCLA. I think that we could potentially have three Pac-12 teams in the Final Four if things break right, you know, over this weekend.

• 27:45Chuck Nice?

  All right.

• 27:45Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 27:46Gary O'Reilly?

  I mean, how much of this is down to program? How much of this is down to stellar individuals you think are just gonna come through and announce their pre-professional contract?

• 27:57Speaker 02

  Well, in the case of UCLA, you know, the beginning of the year, we really didn't know how good the Bruins were gonna be, but then Lonzo Ball comes in as their point guard, completely changes the way that team plays.

• 28:07Chuck Nice?

  Yes.

• 28:07Speaker 02

  And they are, have just been an absolute revelation. One of the most fun teams to watch all year.

• 28:11Chuck Nice?

  Yes, and it's, and plus, I'm a big fan of his dad's, so.

• 28:15Gary O'Reilly?

  Maybe not sure everybody else is.

• 28:20Chuck Nice?

  All right. Hey, man. That was fun. Actually, the cool thing about this is.

• 28:24Gary O'Reilly?

  Okay, where's our big shocks? Do we have any big shocks that you think might just appear deeper into the tournament?

• 28:31Chuck Nice?

  The big Cinderella. Who's the biggest Cinderella?

• 28:33Gary O'Reilly?

  Oh, yeah. No, don't give me an ugly sister. Bring me cinders.

• 28:36Chuck Nice?

  Who's got the biggest foot to fit that glass slipper?

• 28:40Speaker 02

  I think the Cincinnati Bearcats, who are gonna be a four or five seed, they have the type of team there. They've always been a strong defensive team. They have enough offense this year to really make some noise. That is the team I think is gonna be the biggest shock. Once we get to the Sweet Sixteen.

• 28:55Gary O'Reilly?

  Okay, no, no, before you go, before we let that that sort of segment go. Vermont, am I right, own the longest winning streak pre-March Madness?

• 29:07Speaker 02

  That's right. That's right.

• 29:08Gary O'Reilly?

  Are they going to get the golden ticket?

• 29:11Speaker 02

  Well, they're already in. They won their conference championship today, which, yeah.

• 29:15Gary O'Reilly?

  Okay, so you, they, what, let's put them on about a 21-game winning streak.

• 29:21Chuck Nice?

  They're gonna melt down in the very first round.

• 29:24Gary O'Reilly?

  That's it. So are are these guys just paper tigers, or could they really sink their teeth deep into a big name?

• 29:31Chuck Nice?

  I see, I, I, do you like peanut butter and jelly? Yeah. Cause I see a choke sandwich happening.

• 29:39Gary O'Reilly?

  All right. Okay, Chuck's thoughts?

• 29:41Chuck Nice?

  Go ahead, Chris. Tell us. I'm joking, but go ahead.

• 29:43Speaker 02

  The thing with the Catamounts is is that they, you know, have that long winning streak, but they haven't really beaten anybody who would be considered a brand name. Their conference wasn't very good this year, so they were pretty much able to roll through. So it's gonna be very interesting. They they're very capable, because, I mean, you know, at some point, you'd think somebody was gonna knock them off because they had the target on their back all year. But the draw that they're gonna get, they're probably gonna be a 13 seed. Some of the fours that are out there, if they get the wrong draw, it's it's not gonna matter. They're they're not.

• 30:14Chuck Nice?

  You know, you actually know what you're talking about. I'm just shooting from, I'm talking out of my butt, but I'm gonna tell you right now. Today is March 22nd, when everybody's hearing this show, they are already home.

• 30:30Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 30:30Chuck Nice?

  Okay, just saying.

• 30:31Gary O'Reilly?

  Anyone listening, anyone listening with an affiliation to Vermont, it's all Chuck.

• 30:36Chuck Nice?

  Yep.

• 30:37Gary O'Reilly?

  Okay, so when we're constructing our bracket, those of us that have never done it before think, we like the number 16, we'll go with that. Waste of time, correct?

• 30:48Speaker 02

  That's right. It's never happened and it probably, it doesn't seem like it's ever gonna happen in the foreseeable future.

• 30:54Gary O'Reilly?

  Because the way the pods are set up, we have seeds and pods, we're back to gardening again Chuck, and you love gardening. And so the first seed gets drawn with a 16th seed.

• 31:05Speaker 02

  Mm-hmm.

• 31:05Gary O'Reilly?

  And that basically is au revoir.

• 31:08Speaker 02

  Usually a 16 seed, sometimes they have a losing record, sometimes they're, they're from, they're always from a weaker conference.

• 31:15Gary O'Reilly?

  Right.

• 31:16Speaker 02

  A lot of the times they're a team that didn't win both the regular season and conference tournament title, they just kinda snuck in by getting really hot during the conference tournament, winning three or four games in a row.

• 31:25Gary O'Reilly?

  Hmm.

• 31:26Speaker 02

  And usually that number one seed is playing somewhere close to home, so they're gonna have a lot of fans behind them.

• 31:30Chuck Nice?

  Right.

• 31:31Gary O'Reilly?

  Gotcha.

• 31:31Speaker 02

  Yeah, so.

• 31:32Gary O'Reilly?

  What's, what's the, what's the lowest seed that's ever walked home with the big deal?

• 31:37Speaker 02

  Lowest seed that's ever won a national championship, Villanova won as a nine seed.

• 31:43Chuck Nice?

  Okay.

• 31:44Speaker 02

  Yeah. It's an eight.

• 31:45Gary O'Reilly?

  It can, so it can, in other words, I'm exploring it can be done, you don't have to be in the top two seeds, three seeds, to have it all to yourselves.

• 31:55Speaker 02

  No, but it's very, very difficult. Usually, usually it's the top four seeds that have a shot.

• 32:01Gary O'Reilly?

  All right.

• 32:01Speaker 02

  And usually the one and the two seeds, but, but we've only had one since they actually started seeding teams where all four one seeds made it to the final four, and that was in 2008.

• 32:11Chuck Nice?

  Okay.

• 32:11Gary O'Reilly?

  All right.

• 32:12Chuck Nice?

  All right, so listen, we gotta, we gotta wrap, go ahead.

• 32:15Speaker 02

  Don't pick all ones.

• 32:16Chuck Nice?

  No, no, don't do that, right. So here's the deal, we're going to close things out by taking a fan question. And John W. from Twitter wants to know this, Chris.

• 32:28Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 32:28Chuck Nice?

  Uh, he says, what is it about the 5-12 matchup that seems to consistently involve the most upsets? Is there any rhyme or reason for that?

• 32:41Speaker 02

  There, there are a couple. Usually the five seed is a team from power conference who might have been sitting, they might have lost early in their conference tournament, so maybe they've been sitting for almost a solid week. And a 12 seed a lot of the times is one of those mid-major conference champions who's better than their record would indicate, better than their profile would indicate, that that isn't going to be intimidated by that 5 seed. And they're also a little bit fresher because they won their conference tournament. You know, they haven't been sitting for, you know, a week. They've only been sitting for a couple of days. And occasionally, a 12 seed will be one of those teams that plays on Tuesday and Wednesday. So they're really, you know, into their rhythm and ready to go.

• 33:21Chuck Nice?

  Wow.

• 33:21Speaker 02

  So those are the two things that really, to me, kind of are why those matchups always kind of stick out as upset picks. It's usually a pretty even matchup, too.

• 33:30Chuck Nice?

  That is just amazing that you were able to jump right in and answer that question the way you did.

• 33:34Speaker 02

  He's a pro.

• 33:35Chuck Nice?

  I am seriously impressed.

• 33:36Speaker 02

  He's a pro.

• 33:37Chuck Nice?

  Fantastic.

• 33:37Gary O'Reilly?

  Right, Gary, you have one. So we have a question now from Jeff Sostarches. Yes, say that's the right way. Apologies, Jeff, if that's not. I'm mangling the English language, as you probably guessed. It isn't my first, or I don't even have one. Right, considering that there are upsets in every tournament, Chris, are there any strategies proven to be effective in determining bracket results? In statistics, outliers are typically thrown out as anomalies, but every March outliers make a dramatic impact on the tournament. So, do we have secret algorithms? Because it's all numbers, are there equations? And of course, as Jeff says, do we have certain strategies?

• 34:18Speaker 02

  Well, as somebody who overthinks everything, don't overthink. I usually, when I make my picks, I go with the first instinct. But, you know, we talk about, you know, how the bracket is set up. And usually in a pool, you know, games become more valuable as you move on around. So usually your first round is only worth one point. So your upsets are only worth one point. Or, you know, if you get credit for an upset, maybe it's double, so it's two. But those round of 32, round of 16 games, and so on, are going to be more important. And that's when the favorites usually win. That's when your 1 seeds, your 2 seeds, your 3 seeds are gonna go and take care of things. So oftentimes, if you pick all chalk, your bracket is gonna do better than somebody who goes crazy picking upsets. So don't overthink it, you know.

• 35:02Speaker 02

  Go with your gut, but remember that upsets, while they're great, they aren't really gonna make all the impact, you know, when we get to the final four in Glendale at the beginning of April.

• 35:14Chuck Nice?

  Sweet. Well, listen, we gotta wrap this up.

• 35:16Gary O'Reilly?

  Yeah.

• 35:16Chuck Nice?

  I tell you what, here's what we're gonna do. Uh, we're gonna, uh, go to a break. And while we're in the break, I'm going to keep you on the line, Chris. I need you, um, pretty much.

• 35:29Gary O'Reilly?

  You're gonna one to one, don't you?

• 35:30Chuck Nice?

  Yeah, I need you to give me as much information as possible so I can win a million dollars for the rest of my life from Warren Buffett. This is the goal now of, um, and for every person who is watching the NCAA tournament, your goal should be to pick a bracket and, uh, make Warren Buffett pay you. That's really what this is about now.

• 35:50Gary O'Reilly?

  Okay, uh, job application in at Berkshire Hathaway prerequisite.

• 35:54Chuck Nice?

  What?

• 35:55Gary O'Reilly?

  Yeah, you have to be an employee at Berkshire Hathaway.

• 35:58Chuck Nice?

  Okay, you guys give me this information now?

• 36:00Gary O'Reilly?

  Well, no, we did tell.

• 36:01Chuck Nice?

  Now this is what you're telling me this?

• 36:02Gary O'Reilly?

  No, no, you tuned out.

• 36:03Chuck Nice?

  Now I gotta go get a job is what you're saying?

• 36:06Gary O'Reilly?

  Yeah.

• 36:06Chuck Nice?

  I gotta get a job now. This sucks.

• 36:08Gary O'Reilly?

  It's one, it's one mill a year, a life.

• 36:11Chuck Nice?

  That's true. That's true. Okay. Hey, listen, I don't, I don't mind, you know, listen, uh, I'll show up and I will just apply for whatever job they have available.

• 36:19Gary O'Reilly?

  You don't have to have a great job, you just have to be on the payroll.

• 36:21Chuck Nice?

  I don't care for a million dollars a year, I will be Warren Buffett's personal butt wiper. I do not care. Okay? I just want this million dollars a year. We're gonna find a way to do this. All right?

• 36:30Gary O'Reilly?

  I do hope that job isn't available.

• 36:33Gary O'Reilly?

  Really do.

• 36:34Chuck Nice?

  Hey, Chris, buddy, thanks so much, man.

• 36:37Gary O'Reilly?

  Absolute pleasure. And you know what, sir?

• 36:39Chuck Nice?

  Thanks, Gary.

• 36:40Gary O'Reilly?

  Best of luck.

• 36:41Chuck Nice?

  Thank you so much. Not that you'll need it.

• 36:43Gary O'Reilly?

  No, but you got a better chance. And thank you for taking me to school. It's been a pleasure to be in the front row of this class.

• 36:49Chuck Nice?

  You're very, very welcome.

• 36:50Gary O'Reilly?

  Thank you to Chris Dobbertean, our bracketologist extraordinaire. We are going to take a break. Up next, we will be exploring the cultural impact of March Madness with Professor Alan Zaremba, author of The Madness of March: Bonding and Betting with the Boys in Vegas. Get a feeling that can only go one way. This is Playing with Science. Don't go away. We are back shortly.

• 37:19Gary O'Reilly?

  Welcome back, I'm Gary O'Reilly.

• 37:21Chuck Nice?

  And I'm Chuck Nice.

• 37:21Gary O'Reilly?

  And this, of course, is Playing with Science. And today, we are taking a close look at the seasonal madness of the NCAA basketball tournament.

• 37:30Chuck Nice?

  Yes, absolutely. And, of course, you know, this is a crazy time of year, so exciting, so many people into it. And to help us explore the cultural impact that this has on our society, we're going to bring on Professor Alan Zarembe, who teaches Communication Studies at Northeastern University and is the author of "The Madness of March: Bonding and Betting with the Boys in Las Vegas." Alan, how are you?

• 37:57Speaker 03

  I'm well, thank you.

• 37:58Chuck Nice?

  Thanks for joining us. Hey, talk about your book for a second. Can you give us a synopsis of what your book is about? What is the focus?

• 38:06Speaker 03

  Oh, sure. I mean, what happened was, in the early 2000s, I had read a book about 100 Things to Do Before You Die, and one of them was to go to Las Vegas, I guess during March Madness, to watch the games, the people who bet on the games. So I went, and it was as advertised, a very exciting experience and a lot of fun. So then I went again. And then, about three years later, I said, you know, there's a book in this? There's a book that would describe the characters that sent on Las Vegas to watch March Madness. So the book is really, you know, a tetrapathy. It's a description of the characters who travel to Las Vegas. They're all sports fans, they fancy themselves as knowledgeable sports bettors, and they go to frolic, really.

• 38:51Speaker 03

  It's a vacation. It's like going to Disney World for the weekend. And that's what the book does. It describes the first four days of the tournament, Thursday, Friday, you know, now we're in the third day of the first weekend, if you don't count the first, the playing games. And I described the characters and how they go through the stupid business at beginning the tournament.

• 39:12Gary O'Reilly?

  It's like you got your favorite series, but you've missed the first three or four episodes, or series, and you've binged the whole thing.

• 39:20Chuck Nice?

  Right, it's a Game of Thrones marathon with betting.

• 39:23Gary O'Reilly?

  It is.

• 39:24Chuck Nice?

  Yeah, it's cool, alright.

• 39:25Gary O'Reilly?

  Did you, did, did anyone emerge when you were popping into Vegas for March Madness with a strategy that you thought, whoa, this guy's got something?

• 39:34Speaker 03

  Uh, actually, what emerged to me was looking at the different kinds of quirky characters. No, I, I didn't really find anybody that had the, the key to winning. What I did is I found people who were idiosyncratic, I think, people who pontificated as if they knew what they were talking about, and they really didn't. And then they had people, I think there were people who were screamers, just screaming at the television set. And so, yeah, yeah, different, you had people who were very self facing, talking about, while they're online, waiting to bet, talking about how much money they're losing, and that you wonder why they're on the line to bet if all they do is predict that they're going to lose. So, what emerged was characters.

• 40:17Chuck Nice?

  Gotcha.

• 40:18Speaker 03

  That's what, people that were, had the keys to success, because the people who have the keys to the success are the people who own the casinos.

• 40:25Chuck Nice?

  Of course, always. Does your book get into how March Madness became March Madness? Because, uh, you know, it's been around, but I don't think I remember it as big as it, it has been for the last, I will say, the last maybe fifteen years. It's really out of control. You can't go anywhere and not be touched by March Madness.

• 40:49Speaker 03

  I think the media had a big, I do talk about this a little bit in the book, the media had a big impact. In the early eighties, ESPN, when it, when it was in its infancy, decided to televise all of the games.

• 41:00Chuck Nice?

  Ah.

• 41:01Speaker 03

  And when ESPN televised all of the games, then people who would just look at the newspaper the next day to find out about the scores, now they became more familiar with March Madness.

• 41:11Chuck Nice?

  Right, gotcha.

• 41:12Speaker 03

  So, that was in the early eighties. Then what happened was, you know, more and more people became aware of the games, and then advertisers realized, hmm, there are lots of people watching the games. So it became part of our culture so that there are March Madness tire sales now. And you can't pick up a newspaper where with some, you know, a liquor store selling. We got the March Madness Johnny Walker Red sale.

• 41:36Chuck Nice?

  Oh, yeah.

• 41:36Speaker 03

  So it it's some part of the culture because of the exposure it got. Now, I'll put that in nineteen eighty. The nineteen seventy nine finals game between that featured Larry Bird and Magic Johnson. That was a big one as well.

• 41:51Gary O'Reilly?

  Michigan and Indiana.

• 41:52Chuck Nice?

  Yeah. So, yeah.

• 41:54Speaker 03

  Indiana State.

• 41:55Gary O'Reilly?

  Mm hmm.

• 41:55Speaker 03

  Indiana State.

• 41:56Gary O'Reilly?

  Correct.

• 41:57Chuck Nice?

  So, so it it really is like everything else in America about marketing and money. That's that's.

• 42:03Gary O'Reilly?

  Well, when you think about the TV deal, Alan, you may have the better grip on the numbers, but I think CBS and Turner came together to take over the NCAA March Madness.

• 42:13Chuck Nice?

  That's right.

• 42:13Gary O'Reilly?

  And they didn't do like a three year package. This went across ten and plus years and there are billions.

• 42:20Speaker 03

  I'm not sure about the contract.

• 42:21Gary O'Reilly?

  Oh, no, it's billions. Yeah, and once they dump billion dollar contracts, multi billion dollar contracts, you know they're going to want their money back.

• 42:28Chuck Nice?

  Well, yeah, absolutely.

• 42:29Speaker 03

  They're getting their money because the the people who watch it, there's so many people who are interested in it. You've got people who don't know a basketball from a pumpkin that are playing, they're filling out brackets and they're betting on games. They're into this and they couldn't tell you how to keep score in a basketball game, but yet they're rooting for a team or somebody. Oh, one year I went to Philadelphia to watch a double head, the first, one of the first double headers and there were people there from Creighton. And again, I didn't have a sense that they understood how the game was played.

• 43:01Chuck Nice?

  Right.

• 43:02Speaker 03

  But they're cheering like madmen for their school.

• 43:04Chuck Nice?

  So is that is that part of it? The fact that it's kind of like, you know, it's a it's a colors thing, it's your school. So, you know, everybody has some kind of um connection to it. You know, whether the school is in your community or you went to the school, you're alum, or you know someone who's there, or it's a rival of of your school. I mean, is that is that a big part of it?

• 43:26Speaker 03

  I think it is, and I'll, I'll add that, I, I think you're absolutely right, that you can say, uh, that when, when Albany, that's my alma mater, when they went to the, to the tournament for the first time, it was a madhouse in Albany. It was, it was as if people had discovered, you know, gold. They were so excited about the fact that some school that they knew

• 43:48Gary O'Reilly?

  Right.

• 43:49Speaker 03

  was going to the tournament. But I'll add to this, is that it wouldn't be the same if they didn't think that that game was going to be broadcast on television. It is the fact that every single game is on television and that Albany, or a small school like, um, Kent State

• 44:05Gary O'Reilly?

  Mm-hmm.

• 44:05Speaker 03

  would get, would get exposure on television. I don't think it would have that much, um, of, of a grip. But you had people who were really excited about this because, in the same way when they scan the audience at a ballgame and someone sees their picture and they get excited, hey, I'm excited. Albany's on TV. Kent State's on TV.

• 44:25Gary O'Reilly?

  Yeah.

• 44:25Speaker 03

  This is my school. So, th- th- that's, that's a big part of it as well.

• 44:30Gary O'Reilly?

  Okay, Alan, just so as to clarify the numbers, NCAA in 2010 signed a 14, 1-4 year deal with Turner and CBS4. Hold on to your seats, people. 10.8 billion US dollars.

• 44:46Speaker 03

  And they're gonna get their money back.

• 44:48Gary O'Reilly?

  Yeah.

• 44:48Speaker 03

  They're gonna get their money back.

• 44:49Gary O'Reilly?

  Okay, so you're a man that's sort of inhabited the Vegas scene during March Madness. Any idea what the dollar figure for gambling is over March Madness?

• 45:01Speaker 03

  I don't know, but I did interview three of the sportsbook managers, and they were telling me that this is a busy, this is, Super Bowl is a little bit akin to it in terms of the amount of money that's being spent, but they said this is where they make their money. I, I, I can remember going in the back room of the Venetian and speaking to the, um, person who was in the sportsbook and watching what was going on. And boy, they were taking in, in some shekels. They were making some money on that day.

• 45:27Gary O'Reilly?

  Can you imagine someone in a casino, that their whole mission statement is, "We make money," says about March Madness, "This is when we make money."

• 45:36Chuck Nice?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah, man, that's this is our payday. That lets you know.

• 45:40Speaker 03

  I remember, uh, there was a guy who, uh, was trying to predict who was gonna win and he said something like, "Oh, this team can't miss," and I thought, those two words, "can't miss," built the entire city of Las Vegas. People think they could lose. That's how they make their money.

• 45:57Chuck Nice?

  Yeah, it's also what sunk the Titanic, so that guy, uh, I'm sure he's headed for, I'm sure he's headed for great success. Uh, talk about, I, I read somewhere that productivity suffers at, uh, uh, uh, more during March Madness than any other time of the year.

• 46:12Speaker 03

  Well, I've, I've heard the same thing and, uh, the, the idea is that a lot of people during the day time on Thursday and Friday, instead of working, will watch the games. And now with the internet, um, it's, it's relatively easy to, so. So you've got a lot of people who, instead of doing whatever they're supposed to be doing, uh, looking to see if their brackets got busted, uh, while they're allegedly, uh, you know, toiling away for the company. Uh, and even the days before, you, you have people filling out their brackets and you have companies who have, you know, eh, within your own organization, somebody might pass around, uh, uh, you know, some ki- some kind of game where you could make a few shekels if you guessed the team correctly.

• 46:55Chuck Nice?

  Yeah, uh, I'm actually, uh, I'm actually in one and I, I gotta be honest, I couldn't pick a bracket, uh, if you actually gave me tomorrow's newspaper, I still would get it wrong. Okay, but, uh, but, but you do it just because everybody's in it and you're like, "Hey, what the hell, uh, maybe I'll get lucky." Cause it seems to me, now, do you fill out a bracket? Cause it seems to me like nobody, nobody fills out a bracket and, and, and gets it right.

• 47:20Speaker 03

  If you don't know what you're doing, you've got as good a chance as someone who doesn't know what they're doing.

• 47:24Chuck Nice?

  Exactly.

• 47:25Speaker 03

  Well, with the brackets, you're not betting against the spread. You're betting, you know, who's gonna win the game. So it's a little bit easier, but still, there are upsets galore. Middle Tennessee State, the last two years has, has upset a team in the first round.

• 47:39Chuck Nice?

  Yeah.

• 47:40Speaker 03

  Take a team like Miami, which really played well during the year and it, it played, it got... Shalack last night, um, so you've got a against the Michigan State team that didn't have a good season, so it's very difficult to predict who's going to win and therefore your brackets are busted right from the beginning.

• 47:58Chuck Nice?

  Yeah, exactly.

• 47:59Gary O'Reilly?

  Shalack.

• 48:00Chuck Nice?

  Yeah.

• 48:01Gary O'Reilly?

  There's not enough shalacking going on.

• 48:02Chuck Nice?

  Yeah.

• 48:03Gary O'Reilly?

  That sounds like the best term ever.

• 48:05Chuck Nice?

  Hey, you know.

• 48:06Gary O'Reilly?

  That team got shalacked. Okay, Alan, let me, one question from me here. Apart from the obvious negative of, you know what, people lose or can lose an awful lot of money, or just some money, do you see any sort of social positive that comes out of March Madness?

• 48:22Speaker 03

  Oh, yeah, I do. It's, it's, it's exciting. I think, how do you spend your time? How do you spend your emotional energy? You, you know, I, I think that if you are excited about college basketball and excited about sports, this is a terrific tournament. You win and you advance. I don't, I don't think, I don't wanna seem as if I'm painting this negatively at all. Yes, you can, you can lose money, but it is, it's a fun time.

• 48:48Gary O'Reilly?

  Mm-hmm.

• 48:49Speaker 03

  You know, there are people who collect coins, people who collect stamps. The people who go to Las Vegas and are into March Madness, they love sports.

• 48:55Chuck Nice?

  Right.

• 48:56Speaker 03

  They're going out to Las Vegas because this is fun for them. And it's decent fun. I mean, if you, unless you're betting your rent.

• 49:04Chuck Nice?

  Right, yeah.

• 49:05Speaker 03

  It's fun.

• 49:06Chuck Nice?

  Yeah. Speaking of, uh, money, uh, and I don't wanna get too deep in this because this is not what the show is about, but I'm just interested, since you're definitely a, a college basketball fan, uh, when you talk about 10.8 billion dollars, uh, do you believe that there should be some compensation for, uh, college basketball players with this type of money being, uh, bandied about?

• 49:29Speaker 03

  You know, it's a, it's an important question and I, I think there are, not to sound critical, although I'm going to be critical, there are, there are arguments on both sides. The argument on one side is... The athletes are getting paid. They're getting paid a full tuition and full ride to go to get an education which can be up to two hundred and fifty thousand dollars. So if you're a scholarship athlete, and most of these players are scholarship athletes, you're getting a free college education. You're gonna come out of class, school with with no loans. Plus, you're likely to get some tutoring help by the athletic department. So there there is some money there. On the other side, the schools

• 50:12Speaker 03

  are making more than you are. I I I come down on the side of no, you don't want to, it it's problematic already that the student athletes are spending more time being athletes than students. And I think if you start paying them, then there's no real reason for the students to be more student than athlete. So I see both sides, but I I think that if you're making, if you get two hundred and fifty, a free education, that's something that's not nothing to sneeze at.

• 50:44Chuck Nice?

  Yeah, you're right. And I think that that's what it should be. I mean, personally, I believe that, uh, in terms of payment, that, uh, you, uh, instead of making it a farm league for the NBA, which it is, by the way, and it is, and and and the farm league for hockey and the farm league for baseball, these guys get paid, you know, for the la for for the most part. Uh, but, uh, what I think should happen is, once you go to the school, and you put in a certain amount of tenure, you should be able to come back to that school and until you get a degree. Like, that school should have to carry you until you get a degree. Uh, and and that's the way I think that, because in education, you can't put a price on.

• 51:25Gary O'Reilly?

  See, the thing is, out of March Madness, and the money that comes back into the NCAA, funds not just, this is what I believe, is what I've read, funds not just the basketball programs throughout the colleges, but a number of other sports programs. But then you

• 51:40Speaker 03

  Oh, sure.

• 51:40Chuck Nice?

  Oh, yes. It's the NCAA, so it's all their sports.

• 51:43Gary O'Reilly?

  So then you balance that off against stories such as one college player who got drafted to the NBA who said, I didn't have enough money to buy food. While I was at college. So there's always something one on the other side of the line, which you can argue a case for. But I think in the end, they've got to remain amateur as much as that may ethically upset a lot of people.

• 52:03Chuck Nice?

  Yeah, it's a difficult sticky situation, but I just wanted to get your opinion on it because you're very passionate about college basketball. I was just interested. But you know what? We're almost out of time, but I can't let you go.

• 52:15Gary O'Reilly?

  Before.

• 52:15Chuck Nice?

  Before we ask you, who do you have taking it all?

• 52:21Speaker 03

  I had Oregon. I think they're a good, they're a very good team. I know that they're missing their big guy, but I think they'll, they'll do well. And don't pay any attention to me because I'm never right. But I like the, when, when I filled out my brackets and went with Oregon, I thought they, they have the team. I'm not, I'm not convinced that Duke is what everybody says they are.

• 52:43Chuck Nice?

  Right.

• 52:44Speaker 03

  UNC, I saw UNC play earlier this year against Miami and they got trounced by Miami, who got trounced last night. So I don't think UNC or Duke, and, and don't pay any attention to me because I, I thought that Jimmy Carter was going to be Ronald Reagan in 1980. So I have, I'm not the kind of guy that you want to take your, take bets on the basis.

• 53:05Gary O'Reilly?

  March Madness and a history lesson.

• 53:07Chuck Nice?

  Yeah, well, and guess what? I, you're in good company because I actually picked the Lakers. So that'll show you how much I know.

• 53:15Gary O'Reilly?

  Alan, thank you so much for your time. It's been a pleasure to have you on board. Thank you to Alan, Professor Alan Zerember and Chris Dobbertean for his insight into bracketology.

• 53:29Chuck Nice?

  Yeah, who knew this whole thing was so, I mean, Chris Dobbertean, he's very strategic. I mean, it's a real deal. This guy, it's his life, which is so weird, you know?

• 53:38Gary O'Reilly?

  And even he says, I don't know, I'm going to get close to a Sweet 16, let alone an Elite Eight.

• 53:43Chuck Nice?

  Absolutely, absolutely. Yeah. I, I gotta tell you, the, the March Madness is only going to get bigger and bigger. That's the one thing that I like. And, and I shall continue to waste money every year on a bracket. So, you know, that's, that's what I've learned. I'm in good company. When I'm wasting my money picking teams for March Madness.

• 54:04Gary O'Reilly?

  Okay, if you don't see it as wasting money, but bringing your office, your family, your friends together, then maybe there's not so much madness in March.

• 54:13Chuck Nice?

  Yeah, I don't like-

• 54:13Gary O'Reilly?

  Gary O'Reilly-

• 54:14Chuck Nice?

  I don't like any of those people, though, that's the problem. And I'm Chuck Nice.

• 54:18Gary O'Reilly?

  And this has been Playing with Science, and really, we do like people, honestly, and I'll speak to him afterwards. See you soon.