Trump Wants A Missile Defense System Like Israel's

Since last week, Israel has been attacking Iran's nuclear facilities, along with many other targets around the country. Iran has fired hundreds of missiles in response. NPR correspondent Geoff Brumfiel https://www.npr.org/people/279612138/geoff-brumfiel has been watching all of this very closely because Israel's missile defenses have been a focus of the Trump White House. This year, President Trump requested funding from Congress for a "Golden Dome for America https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4193417/secretary-of-defense-pete-hegseth-statement-on-golden-dome-for-america/" — a missile defense system that would protect all of the United States. The idea comes from Israel's Iron Dome — a network of interceptor missiles stationed at points across the country. Iron Dome and related Israeli air defenses don't get every missile fired — including some launched in the past few days by Iran — but the Israeli military says it has intercepted thousands of rockets since it was built. Trying to get that kind of protection for America, though, might be a very different matter. Read more of science correspondent Geoff Brumfiel's reporting on this topic http://npr.org/2025/06/13/nx-s1-5432607/israel-strikes-iran-nuclear-facilities-expand and find NPR's coverage of the Middle East here https://www.npr.org/sections/middle-east/. Questions about nuclear science? Email us at [email protected] mailto:[email protected]. Listen to every episode of Short Wave sponsor-free and support our work at NPR by signing up for Short Wave+ at plus.npr.org/shortwave http://plus.npr.org/shortwave. See pcm.adswizz.com https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences. NPR Privacy Policy https://www.npr.org/about-npr/179878450/privacy-policy

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• 0:00Speaker 00

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• 0:16Emily Kwong?

  You're listening to Short Wave from NPR. Hi, Short Wavers. I'm here with NPR science correspondent Jeff Brumfiel. So Jeff, since last week, Israel has been attacking Iran's nuclear facilities, along with many other targets around the country. What's happening there?

• 0:34Speaker 02

  That's right. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he took this action because Iran has been stockpiling enriched uranium, by some estimates enough to produce about 10 nuclear weapons if they chose to do so. And Netanyahu basically said that this was a preemptive attack to stop Iran's nuclear program.

• 0:55Emily Kwong?

  And in response, Iran has fired hundreds of missiles, many of which have struck targets in central Israel. And the Trump administration has been following this closely, in part because Israel has a pretty sophisticated missile defense system, right, Jeff?

• 1:10Speaker 02

  Yeah, that's right. Israel's missile defense system, colloquially as known as Iron Dome. And President Trump is fascinated by it. Earlier this year, he made a speech to Congress, and in it, there was a big request.

• 1:25Speaker 03

  I'm asking Congress to fund a state of the art Golden Dome missile defense shield to protect our homeland, all made in the USA.

• 1:37Speaker 02

  Golden Dome. Trump is sort of riffing off the Iron Dome name there. And Trump has talked about Golden Dome quite a bit during his campaign. He wants to see it built during his second term.

• 1:48Speaker 03

  This is a very dangerous world. We should have it. We want to be protected, and we're going to protect our citizens like never before.

• 1:57Emily Kwong?

  So today on the show, we'll talk about Israel's missile defense system and what a similar system could look like in the US.

• 2:05Speaker 02

  Can it be done? And how much will it cost?

• 2:08Emily Kwong?

  I'm Emily Kwong.

• 2:09Speaker 02

  And I'm Jeff Brumfiel.

• 2:10Emily Kwong?

  And you're listening to Short Wave, the science podcast from NPR.

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• 3:26Speaker 02

  Okay, Jeff, let's start by talking a little bit about what we're seeing in Israel right now. Yeah, so I actually want to back up a second just briefly to talk about the events after October 7th, 2023. That was, of course, when Hamas militants attacked Israeli civilians along the Gaza border. Along with that attack, there were thousands of rockets fired out of Gaza and the Iron Dome Missile Defense System intercepted many of those rockets. And actually, since the start of the conflict, Iron Dome has been very busy intercepting rockets from Gaza, intercepting rockets from Lebanon.

• 4:10Speaker 02

  And the way it works is really interesting. Basically, it is a network system of missile launchers that are tied to radars and computers. And so when they see incoming missiles, they make a decision if the missile or rocket's going to fall in a populated area, Iron Dome will fire an interceptor to knock it out of the sky.

• 4:33Emily Kwong?

  I was picturing something a little like this kind of shield over an area, but it's not a dome at all. It sounds more like a system.

• 4:42Speaker 02

  That's right. It is. And it's actually part of an even larger Israeli network of missile defenses. There are two other systems called Arrow and David Sling. And those systems have been front and center more recently with this attack from Iran because Iran is using much larger missiles to attack Israel.

• 5:05Emily Kwong?

  Yeah.

• 5:06Speaker 02

  These missiles are coming in from much further away. And so they're actually intermediate range, medium range ballistic missiles that go up into space and then actually come down on Israel at very, very high speeds. And that is something that is much more difficult to intercept than, say, a rocket fired from Lebanon or Gaza near the Israeli border. And, you know, I think, turning back to the Golden Dome now, that what we're seeing coming out of Iran is actually a more sort of characteristic type of threat that America might face.

• 5:46Emily Kwong?

  Okay. So whatever Golden Dome Trump wants to build would have to stand up to this kind of missile technology.

• 5:53Speaker 02

  That's right. You know, the US's main adversaries that could hit it with missiles are major superpowers, you know, Russia and China. And the types of missiles they have are even bigger and more sophisticated than the ones held by Iran. So now we're talking about intercontinental ballistic missiles. These missiles don't launch near our borders. They launch from halfway around the world. They go way up into space and when they come down, they are fast. They are coming down to earth at hypersonic speeds. That makes them virtually impossible to intercept. And of course, the final complications, many of them are armed with nuclear weapons. I spoke to Jeffrey Lewis. He's a professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies who tracks missile programs, and he put it this way.

• 6:38Speaker 05

  Defending against an ICBM that is burning out at seven kilometers a second, where you can't make any mistakes, you can't miss any, or it's still the worst day in American history, that is a completely different problem set.

• 6:54Speaker 02

  So when Jeffrey looks at what it took to build Iron Dome and then imagines building Golden Dome.

• 6:59Speaker 05

  It's the difference between a kayak and a battleship.

• 7:03Emily Kwong?

  Where would the US even start with building a battleship Golden Dome?

• 7:08Speaker 02

  It really goes back to this question of how do you defend against these big intercontinental missiles? You know, basically, the best time to go after them is right when they've launched. At that point, they're slow moving and big and full of fuel. Laura Grego is a physicist with the Union of Concerned Scientists. She says there's just one problem.

• 7:29Emily Kwong?

  The launch phase of those missiles really only lasts three to five minutes. So you only have, you know, some hundreds of seconds that you have available to catch them as they're launching. Oh, so Golden Dome would have to respond within that three to five minute window?

• 7:45Speaker 02

  That's right. But remember, these missiles are being fired from half a world away.

• 7:50Emily Kwong?

  So how do you catch a missile being launched from, say, the middle of Russia just minutes after it lifts off?

• 7:55Speaker 02

  There's really only one way to do it, and that's from space. The idea is you have some sort of satellite in orbit that can knock out the rocket on its way up. Now, this idea may sound familiar to you, Emily, because the sort of concept of having space-based interceptors is almost as old as the space age itself. And I'm not sure if you remember, but Republican President Ronald Reagan famously tried to do this in the 1980s.

• 8:27Speaker 06

  I know this is a formidable technical task, one that may not be accomplished before the end of this century. Yet current technology has attained a level of sophistication where it's reasonable for us to begin this effort.

• 8:40Emily Kwong?

  Huh, though clearly the dream of it is still alive. So what would be involved in such a project today?

• 8:46Speaker 02

  There's a number of concepts, but one way to do it would be to have a little interceptor satellite that could drop down on the missile and strike it as it's launching. The problem is

• 8:57Emily Kwong?

  Oh, wow.

• 8:57Speaker 02

  The globe is really, really big and satellites zip around it really quickly. So.

• 9:03Speaker 07

  You need a lot of things in space in order to have them in the right place at the right time.

• 9:07Speaker 02

  Laura Grego was part of a panel formed by the American Physical Society that looked at missile defense recently, and they concluded.

• 9:14Speaker 07

  A constellation of about 16,000 interceptors would be needed to attempt to counter a rapid salvo of 10 solid propellant ICBMs.

• 9:22Emily Kwong?

  Wait, wait, wait. Okay, let me slow this down for my math brain. You would need 16,000 of these interceptors to properly take down 10 missiles. That's a, that's a huge system you'd need to defend against like just that.

• 9:39Speaker 02

  Yeah, and I should say it could be even more. There's a lot of different things that factor into how many interceptors you need. These numbers can slide around, but we're talking many thousands, possibly tens of thousands. Until recently, that felt like it was impossible. But now we actually do have a constellation of thousands of satellites in orbit called Starlink.

• 10:02Emily Kwong?

  Oh, this giant constellation that provides internet via satellite? Starlink? We use it here on Earth right now.

• 10:10Speaker 02

  Yeah, that's right. And I should say Starlink is not a missile defense system, but it is a

• 10:15Emily Kwong?

  No.

• 10:16Speaker 02

  proof of principle that it's possible to mass produce satellites and put them in orbit and have them communicate with each other and form a network.

• 10:24Emily Kwong?

  Okay, so what once seemed like an impossible problem is now starting to feel more possible.

• 10:32Emily Kwong?

  Is Golden Dome actually going to work, Jeff?

• 10:34Speaker 02

  Well, some people think it's at least worth a serious look.

• 10:38Speaker 03

  It's a welcome development and it's in some respects overdue.

• 10:42Speaker 02

  That's one of them, a guy named Tom Kariko. He's director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He notes that missiles are just becoming a bigger and bigger part of warfare. I mean, we've really seen that just in the last few days in Israel.

• 10:58Speaker 03

  Missiles have become weapons of choice. They are what folks reach for, what we reach for to strike deep into our enemy's territory. It's what everybody reaches for, to be able to strike from a standoff position.

• 11:11Speaker 02

  And he really worries that if the US got into a large conflict with Russia or China, it needs to be ready to defend against missiles, which may or may not have nuclear weapons.

• 11:21Speaker 03

  I don't want to just deter a nuclear exchange. I want to deter a conventional war with China and Russia. And we do that by raising the threshold.

• 11:30Speaker 02

  The threshold to attack, of course, but I think Tom and everyone I interviewed agreed that there's still a huge amount of work that would have to be done before Golden Dome could become a reality.

• 11:42Emily Kwong?

  Okay, so lay it out for me. Like, we can launch a lot of satellites, but then what else do we need to really make Golden Dome?

• 11:50Speaker 02

  Well, I mean, we would still need to develop satellites that can actually hit missiles. That's technology that we don't have right now. And so, you know, there's a couple of ways to do that. As I mentioned, the sort of simplest architecture in some ways is to make microsats that could just slam into the missiles, drop on top of them as they launch. Some other people I've spoken to are big fans of satellites with lasers. They could use directed energy to, uh, to blow up missiles. Whatever the approach, it's going to take a lot of work to design, test, and then mass produce these satellites. And they're not going to be cheap. You know, the Trump administration is estimating Golden Dome could cost around $175 billion, but the Congressional Budget Office recently said it would be closer to half a trillion dollars.

• 12:36Emily Kwong?

  Oh, that's a lot of money because the government annually spends in the trillions.

• 12:40Speaker 02

  That's right.

• 12:41Emily Kwong?

  This is a very expensive project.

• 12:42Speaker 02

  It probably is. And you know, no one who really understands these systems thinks it could happen in the remaining three years of Trump's second term, to be honest with you.

• 12:54Speaker 02

  And then there's one more thing to think about, Emily, and that's the old military saying that the enemy also gets a vote.

• 13:00Emily Kwong?

  Yeah, I suppose US nuclear adversaries are not just going to sit around watching Golden Dome get built and do nothing.

• 13:07Speaker 02

  That's right. And, you know, I think, again, there's a lesson here in what we're seeing in Israel right now. Iran has actually been probing Israel's air defenses, trying to find ways to slip through. And, you know, Iran's ability to do this is somewhat limited, but China and Russia are major players, and they do not like America's missile defense system. Jeffrey Lewis, the missile defense expert we heard from right at the start, he thinks that Russia and China may find ways to outfox Golden Dome, and it may ultimately end up making things worse.

• 13:41Speaker 05

  We will end up with vastly larger Russian and Chinese nuclear forces. We will end up with the Russians and the Chinese having all kinds of crazy sci fi weapons. In short, we will end up spending tens, if not hundreds of billions of dollars to be in, at best, the same place we are today, and most likely, a much worse place.

• 14:03Speaker 02

  And, you know, again, looking to Israel as an example, I don't know what the final answer really is. Clearly, missile defenses are important, and they protect populations from harm. At the same time, you know, there's evidence that Russia and China are preparing for Golden Dome before it's even been built.

• 14:24Emily Kwong?

  Jeff Brumfiel, thank you for bringing all this on.

• 14:27Speaker 02

  You're welcome, Emily.

• 14:29Emily Kwong?

  Shortwavers, if you found this episode interesting or informative, follow Shortwave right now on the NPR app or your favorite podcasting platform, or just text it to a friend, this episode. Which was produced by Rachel Carlson and edited by our showrunner, Rebecca Ramirez. Jimmy Keeley was the audio engineer. Beth Donovan is our senior director, and Colin Campbell is our senior vice president of podcasting strategy. I'm Emily Kwong. Thank you for listening to Shortwave from NPR.

• 15:14Speaker 00

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