Bitcoin Is Stuck... What’s Next?

Kris Bullock and Bijan Maleki break down the latest action in crypto as bitcoin struggles to hold the low-$60Ks, bears stay in control, and traders look for what could finally spark the next move. They’ll cover the key charts, the altcoins showing relative strength, and the headlines driving sentiment across crypto. Now is the best time to extend your Pro membership: The biggest sale in Real Vision's history is on. For a limited time only, we're dropping membership prices to their lowest levels ever. For more details, visit realvision.com/pricing. Today’s sponsor is Plus500 US. Take your trading to the next level with cross-market contracts, from precious metals to key indices, and more. Whether you’re a seasoned trader in the Futures arena or brand new, Plus500’s user-friendly trading platform offers you the advanced tools, market insights, and quick execution you’ve been looking for. Get started with Plus500 for as little as $100 at https://us.plus500.com. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss. Let Monarch do your financial 'spring cleaning' for you! Use code REALVISION at Monarch.com to get your first year half off at just $50. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

• 0:06Speaker 00

  Oh my God, I wasn't even ready to start. Happy Wednesday, everyone, and welcome back to another edition of Trading the Markets. If you are joining us on Yahoo or on X, please know that if you want to ask your questions live, you have to be an RV Connect member and above to ask Chris any questions you have about your portfolio, any charts you want to look at, or any questions in general. You'd be RV Connect, and you can ask on Discord or on the platform. And right now is a great time to join because you can join RV Connect right now for $14 a month, or $150 a year. So right now, we have our best ever offer going on at Real Vision. Obviously,

• 0:51Speaker 00

  the markets are going crazy. A generational setup is forming, which is why we're offering the best get-in price right now. So head on over to realvision.com/pricing for more information. That's deals on Connect, Alpha, and Pro. We've been releasing a lot of new dashboards. Chris's new AI dashboard just went live yesterday, in addition to his crypto dashboard. You'll have Joe Bland's Macro Portfolio. You have Jamie Coots's dashboard, which just went live today. Steno's Alpha dashboard, the Pro GMI dashboard, and Steno's Pro dashboard as well. So there's a

• 1:32Speaker 00

  lot of live portfolios going on, in addition to a lot of tools that'll help you like take emotions out of this market and like navigate it well, which is like the GMI Risk Monitor tool and the GMI Compounding Tool. So a lot of new stuff heading the website, and a lot more coming too, so stay tuned for that. Again, realvision.com/pricing for more information. Chris, happy Wednesday. Not a happy Wednesday for the crypto markets. Bitcoin is what, teetering at the 60,000 mark, give or take, last I checked, but what's going on with you?

• 2:10Speaker 01

  Yeah, no, you're right. I think to in order to kind of just paint a broader picture here, I want to spend a little bit of time starting out by breaking down what's going on in a more macro sense, talking about liquidity and M2 and sort of credit spreads and risk framework and all of that. Some of that stuff I touched on, those indicators on the AI show on Monday. And then later in the show, of course, we're going to get into Bitcoin and break that down. And I also want to talk about micro strategy and the STRC sort of saga that's going on and how all of that is contributing to Bitcoin as well. So yeah, lots to break down for sure.

• 2:49Speaker 00

  Yeah, absolutely. Before we came on air, you were saying, obviously, we're talking about the crypto markets being down, but the stocks are holding pretty steady, which is kind of anchoring like everything. So I mean, I know you wanted to talk about the macro before we kind of get into Bitcoin. So yeah, let's, let's get into it. Again, guys, if you have any questions, just throw them in the chat and we will, we'll get to them, of course.

• 3:14Speaker 01

  Yeah. So the big story right now is liquidity or sort of lack thereof. We're in a contraction. And this is the, this yellow line here is the global M2, the big liquidity measurement that that we all use. Several of us have different, slightly different variations of this, but they all kind of generally say the same thing. And right now, it's saying that liquidity has rolled over and is in a contraction phase right now. And so kind of to explain what this means or why this matters, I kind of want to zoom out and just talk about what's happening here. So when you have less liquidity, that means there's less money in the financial system. And so when there's less money in the financial system, that increases volatility because you're, you

• 3:57Speaker 01

  know, think about it like your order books, like you go on an exchange, there's just less people active on the exchange, there's less money in the order book. And so when there's less money in the order book, that means it takes less money to move the needle more. And so you get a buy, a big buy come along or a big sell come along, and that will cause a huge spike to the upside or to the downside, because there's less depth in that book, meaning there's less liquidity in that book. And so, less liquidity equates to higher volatility. So you see liquidity going down. If you go over here and look at the VIX, this is why we got this big VIX spike, you know, over the last week plus, you know, up into the twenties. That's directly correlated. So again, less liquidity means higher volatility.

• 4:39Speaker 01

  And when you have higher volatility, big money doesn't like volatility. Institutions don't like volatility. And so when things are volatile, they take their money and they go and they flight to safety. They put it in things like the dollar and things like bonds that don't move very much because that way they can just sit on the sidelines and wait for this volatility to go away. So that's why you have this dynamic here where, you know, again, liquidity down, volatility up, then you get a spike in the dollar index. Because again, people are flight to safety, you know, de-risking into the dollar. And then you also get bond yields going down because again, people are de-risking into bonds. So this is the, this is the whole dynamic playing out here before our eyes. We're seeing all of this.

• 5:23Speaker 01

  So that's why, that's why, you know, the dollar's going up. When the dollar goes up, that's generally bad for risk assets like crypto, you know? So that's why crypto is being impacted by the, also gold and silver and things like that, also being impacted by the dollar going up. But there's a separate dynamic going on here that's also kind of reflected in this, in this Dixie chart here. And that is, uh, the, the basically the, the differential, the real rate differential between the US and the Eurozone. Like the Fed got more restrictive than the ECB, which already hiked. So this is like an inflation rate differential, uh, between the US and Europe. And so that's also reflective. Like here's the actual, like this is the actual rate differential itself.

• 6:06Speaker 01

  The, you know, the two-year US versus like the German two-year, which is kind of a good proxy. And it shows the same thing that the dollar's doing. It bounced, it's, it's running up. So we're seeing that. So that's reflected in here too. But nevertheless, if we look, the dollar has been in this range. For over, well, well over, almost two years now, basically. And it finally has broken out and broken out pretty significantly. And so that's causing a pretty big impact on things across the board. It's definitely impacting the foreign markets, the foreign exchange markets, things like that. So this is kind of the overarching macro situation. But there is some more nuance here that I want to point out because it doesn't necessarily mean.

• 6:50Speaker 01

  There's like, when, when you see like risk off because of dollar spiking and you see, you know, volatility spiking and people getting out of markets and, you know, flight to safety in that scenario. It's a different thing than say if it's a credit squeeze, basically. And so I want to, I talked about a lot of these, I'm going to go back to this dashboard here that we talked about on Monday and kind of look at what's going on here. So within each of these risk indicators, we're seeing a pattern here. Basically, real yields are tightening.

• 7:23Speaker 01

  The dollar is tightening, which we know. And, and that's reflected in here in this real, what's going on with you trading view here?

• 7:31Speaker 01

  We'll see restrictive real rates, restrictive dollar. But credit spreads are, are like totally fine. They're at historic lows. I don't know, can you guys see that? Is your, is my screen acting funny here or is that just me? Anyway.

• 7:45Speaker 00

  Oh, yeah. It's your, looks like it's your screen. There's like a little.

• 7:49Speaker 01

  Hold on, let me see if I can.

• 7:53Speaker 01

  Is it just my trading view tripping out or move this back?

• 7:57Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 7:58Speaker 01

  Well, whatever. Okay, I'll see if I can work around that. Anyway, my point being, trade, credit spreads are historic lows. So that's actually a good thing.

• 8:08Speaker 01

  Capex continues to flow. AI stocks are largely stable. The de-risking is generally contained within a few sectors. And the fact that this is more of like a liquidity drain and not a credit stress situation, I think is the big important takeaway here. Like what we want to, what we don't want to see is this number spike up. Because that's going to tell us that there's a lot more cracks and things are starting to crumble. As opposed to when it's generally just like a liquidity squeeze. Those are often more short term, they're more easily contained. The only thing we really have to worry about is like if the dollar continues to spike. You know, and continue to run, we might potentially see some like carry trade unwinds

• 8:51Speaker 01

  in some of these foreign markets, but right now it is relatively contained. So

• 8:57Speaker 01

  things are okay. I think it's also, you can also sort of view this through the lens of the fact that like the small cap Russell 2000 index is still continuing to set, you know, higher highs, all time highs, where we're getting a correction in some of the, like the larger indices, but it's limited to a few sectors. And I think it's more, we're seeing like a rotation. We're seeing a rotation out of some sectors and into other sectors. So things like financials are running well, things like industrials are running well. And so it's not so much just like a broader correction across the board. It's more of a rotation and it's more dictated by a liquidity squeeze. So that's kind of the, the general environment that we're in. I don't think that this is necessarily anything catastrophic.

• 9:42Speaker 01

  I think it's, it's just like, it's just some perspective on what, what we're dealing with right now. So, um, yeah, like, don't, I, I think it's more of a, I don't want to say it's a buy the dip opportunity necessarily. I mean, things are going to continue to rotate, and I think you need to be careful about where you allocate your money. But I do think that this is something that, um, you know, could be fixed by just more liquidity in the system easily. And so, um, yeah, but otherwise there's not really any like major cracks in the system that we need to worry about too much yet. So.

• 10:15Speaker 00

  Now, Chris, you said, you said you didn't, you didn't, you don't want to say this is a buy the dip opportunity, but you got pretty close to it. So like, how are you thinking about it? And like, I know you, you went through that, but like, how close are you to like that verge of like, uh, yeah, this is a buy the dip opportunity?

• 10:35Speaker 01

  So, um, well, really what I'm going to look for is I want to make sure that the dollar slows down. I really, I want to see the liquidity pick back up. I want to see the VIX come back down a little bit off the ledge. It's hovering right around 19. You don't want it to be up in the 1920 range or higher. You want it to come back down into this 1516 range. So I want to see the, the dollar in, or I'm sorry, the VIX cool off a bit, the dollar cool off a bit. You, uh, I'm sorry. Not volatility, liquidity, kind of pivot here and reverse a bit. And I want to see, you know, make sure credit spreads stay, stay stable. Also, I want to see just like real rates kind of become a little bit more favorable too,

• 11:19Speaker 01

  because they've really tightened a lot in the last few weeks. And that's causing just like a macro kind of risk off impulse right now. And that's really what we're seeing is more of like a risk off impulse. And so that's contributing to, again, to the stuff like Bitcoin and, and gold and things like that. However, that's capex stuff is less impacted. That's why AI stocks largely are flat on the day. I'm gonna just, I'm gonna close my trading view and reopen it here in hopes that it fixes this issue. But I can look at a couple of other charts in a browser real quick.

• 11:58Speaker 01

  Like, here's another US-based liquidity chart here that's showing just US liquidity, well, specific to the US. So we want to see this obviously pivot. A lot of this is kind of off the back of the war speech and, and the things that he talked about too. Even though he didn't actually implement any policy changes, he didn't actually come out and say, we're raising rates. It was kind of like he, he put a lot of things in place, a lot of things in motion, rather, without actually pulling any levers, so to speak. Just by, by his words, he created a lot of what's going on here that we're seeing. So, and, and I think this is on purpose, you know? And so I'm not, not surprised to see this. I do think that it's, again, relatively short-lived.

• 12:40Speaker 01

  And so maybe that's why I think of it more as a, a buy the dip opportunity. Again, obviously, again, do your own research. I'm not saying just go out and blanket buy whatever is down. But just the point, the larger point being, I think this is a temporary situation. It's not like a structural breakdown in markets that has, that's going to be like long lasting. And so that's, that's more what I'm getting at by buy the dip per se.

• 13:09Speaker 01

  Also, I'm going to use this macro risk indicator, you know, that I made, that I shared last week. I want to see. See this pivot down and show that sort of the impulse is switching back to a more risk on environment. I use this a lot for that and right now we're kind of at peak risk off, you know. So we want to see this and again, don't really worry about the numbers necessarily that this is showing, but more just look at the direction that we're seeing of this, of this yellow line here. We want to see this reverse, like it's kind of at levels that it typically does. We want to see this reverse and start pivoting back down, get back down below this moving average and, and show that sort of real rates are in a more risk on favorable type environment.

• 13:53Speaker 01

  Right now, it's just, it makes way more financial sense to have your money in things like the dollar and more stable, sort of less volatile asset classes. And so that's why, that's precisely why we're seeing what we're seeing. That's why the dollar is going up, that's why bond yields are coming down, all, all of that stuff I just said. So, um, and it's, it's also reflected here in the, in the real rates. They've also all just pivoted back up. Everything is very tight, very restrictive. It's just a restrictive macro environment right now. That doesn't mean it's going to be that forever, but it's definitely a catalyst that's causing this larger rotation we're seeing in various equity markets and in crypto and things like that. So if you're, if you're sitting here wondering, why is crypto down? Why are my stocks down? What's going on?

• 14:39Speaker 01

  It's like, this is what's going on. So you can just sort of know that from a broader macro perspective. Just, conditions aren't great right now in, in this short term. They can change quickly, but that's where they're at right now today. So, um, hopefully that gives you some perspective on kind of why we're looking at the ugly last couple of days that we've had, maybe why we're seeing a bit of a correction in the larger S and P and NASDAQ and things like that. Because, you know, things flipped ugly over the last like few, few days to few weeks. So. That's what's up.

• 15:12Speaker 00

  And I think a lot of this also has to do just like, it's just the overall uncertainty going on with the geopolitical stuff and the clarity act like people are, I'm not even sure where we are with clarity at this point. And I was, I was watching Matt Hogan the other day on, I don't know, forget who he was on with the other day, but he basically said it too, like markets hate uncertainty more than they hate negative news. And that's like, that's kind of what we're, that's also adding into all of this.

• 15:39Speaker 01

  Right, right. Yeah. And I think we're still seeing the larger, I think, whatever, investment community, if you will, kind of digesting what Worf said. And I think a lot of people are still trying to apply his future actions on the old Jerome Powell regime and approach to managing the Fed, the Federal Reserve and monetary policy, where, you know, I think it's important to understand that Worf is a completely different way of going about this. And even if he does raise rates, you know, a quarter or a half a percent here and there and lower them, he's not doing it because of the, the approach that Powell used to take. He's doing it because he has a complete, again, a completely

• 16:24Speaker 01

  different strategy. And it's going to be specific to what he sees and how he's trying to tweak things and massage things going forward. So he's fine with generally inflation running a little bit hotter. He's not necessarily looking to get things to 2%. He's fine with it running hot. He's fine with like focusing more on growth and having it, it sort of attack inflation from that standpoint. And so you have to understand that because if, even if he does raise rates, that doesn't mean the same thing that it once did. And so it's like, people need to just chill out and kind of understand what's going on and not make such a big deal over it. I think they're just making too, too big of a deal over everything that was said. So.

• 17:04Speaker 00

  You know, they're not going to chill out and not.

• 17:06Speaker 01

  I mean, whatever. I know. Yeah. I mean, eventually they'll get it. They'll be like, okay, wait, he raised rates. It didn't actually do anything, you know, they'll, they'll overreact in the, in the moment or whatever. But again, it's just, um, yeah, anyway.

• 17:21Speaker 00

  We digress. What's going on with Bitcoin?

• 17:25Speaker 01

  Yeah, let's, let's, let's talk about Bitcoin. I mean, we know Bitcoin, uh, hold on, let me go to daily timeframe here. So yeah, we're down right back, oops, right back down at the top of the range or bottom of the range. Excuse me, right back down at the bottom of the range.

• 17:41Speaker 01

  Bitcoin is being impacted doubly because we'll get into this in a minute. It's being impacted by this dollar index that I just talked about and this macro environment. In addition, uh, all of the stuff going on with micro strategy certainly is not helping. So one observation that I'm making here though, is despite price being right back down here at this range, a pretty decent bullish divergence here on the RSI, which is a, if you want to look for a, a sign of hope, um, I'll take it. So even though we're right back down here, the, the downward momentum is quite a bit less than it was in this initial flush out. So sure, and then again, same thing.

• 18:22Speaker 01

  If we zoom out to the weekly, um, we've got actually the same dynamic at play, although it's, it's, it's dwindling by the moment. But, um, same, same deal going back to this, you know, this previous, this previous low range here back in February. And then this current one here, we've still got a bit of a bullish divergence on this, oops, come on.

• 18:50Speaker 01

  There we go. I don't know what's going on. Um, you know, a bit of a bullish divergence here. So same thing, even though it's ugly, we're back down here at the bottom of this range. Um, less downward momentum on this, this current flush out here. Like, let me get my highlighter on. So this flush out here, oops.

• 19:10Speaker 01

  Here, right here is less momentum to the downside than this flush out here was. So again, we're seeing this, this, this all just kind of contributes to my thesis that this is a larger bottoming pattern that is going to carry out over the course of the next probably three to four months. Um, and we want to see these, these bullish divergences, especially on the weekly timeframe, these bullish RSI divergences. Um, and as long as we continue to see the RSI. Just continue to kind of trickle upwards and have sort of lower, higher lows, rather, and even higher highs on each sort of subsequent trip down to the bottom of the range. I'm okay with that. That's telling me that we're establishing a base and that this is

• 19:53Speaker 01

  just gonna take some time. And we already know that there's a decent chance we could break down below here and come back down into this range into the 50s. Like, that's, we're actually in the 50s now as I speak. We're at 49, or 59,500, basically. So, we are officially in the 50s in this moment. And we could come down into this lower range, like I said. So, don't be mentally prepared for that. Like, this should not be a shock to you if this happens. We've been saying this, I've been saying this for months now. So, as long as, you know, we kind of maintain some gently upward momentum from an RSI standpoint, I think we're okay. So, yeah, I want to get to, I want to get to MicroStrategy,

• 20:37Speaker 01

  because that's the other sort of big thumb on Bitcoin at the moment. And so, I'll look at the, well, the MSTR, I'll look at the MSTR chart briefly. That's not really the story, though. The MSTR chart has broken down even more than Bitcoin. It's actually set even a lower low. It's well down into its lower range already. I don't have lines drawn on here. But it's, it's looking ugly. And we've, if you've, if you haven't been living under a rock, you've kind of heard what's going on with MicroStrategy and with the STRC saga, which, let me pull up the STRC chart. It's, frankly, it's bad. So, and it's, it's getting

• 21:18Speaker 01

  worse by the moment as I've, as I've been researching this, this morning. So, and it's just literally in a free fall at the moment. So, par value is 100. It's down to 80. So, and STRC, one of the things with STRC that's, I think, important in terms of how it relates to Bitcoin is, STRC specifically was a massive marginal buyer for Bitcoin in, in 2026. Like, they, they bought roughly 96,000 Bitcoin. About 55% of Strategy's total 2026 acquisitions was financed through this STRC issuance. So, this is major buyer of Bitcoin kind of disappearing. This is on pause now, basically. And so,

• 22:06Speaker 01

  Let me kind of, for those of you who don't know, like, what even is, I, I, I'm imagining a lot of you are like, what the hell even is this and why should I care? What is, does this mean everything is, is broken and it's going to go to zero? Or like, what, what do I need to know about this? What's the important thing?

• 22:20Speaker 00

  Yeah, because we're getting questions right now. Is, is this, this cycle's FTX, Luna 2.0? Like, I, I think we should, you should talk about that a little bit, yeah.

• 22:28Speaker 01

  Yeah. So what kind of STRC was? It's a, it's a product that was, it's like a yield-bearing preferred stock for, for MicroStrategy, for MSTR, basically. And so, people could buy this and it would essentially pay a yield, like a decent yield, 11 and a half, 12%, somewhere up in that range, I think was what they proposed. And also, the idea behind it was, it was, it would sort of make for lower volatility as a, as a holder of this compared to the actual, you know, volatility of Bitcoin itself. And so, it was like a lower volatility way to get Bitcoin exposure. And it had a yield. And so, it was this, it

• 23:07Speaker 01

  was basically that's what it was. But, so like, what, what happened and why? Kind of a bunch of things happened all at once that, that caused this, this sort of peg to break, if you will, so for it to lose its par value. Part of it was the Fed stance, you know, the hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. Part of it was just, you know, competitive, I guess, competition from other areas that were more stable and maybe that didn't generate as much yield, but were just more stable. And so, it's causing people to kind of want to get out of this. And then Bitcoin itself, the price of Bitcoin going down so much is

• 23:47Speaker 01

  putting strain on this. And Michael Saylor actually had to sell some Bitcoin to, to pay the yield on this. And even though it was very, a very small amount, I think it was 32 Bitcoin, something like that, a fraction of, you know, not even, it was like a thousandth of 1% of their actual Bitcoin holdings. But the signal from him selling this broke the sort of, quote, "never sell" narrative that Saylor had sort of preached all along, ever since he started. MicroStrategy way back in the beginning, he was, "I'm never gonna sell Bitcoin, we'll never do that." And so, even though he only sold a teeny tiny amount, again, it was the more symbolic nature of it that kind of broke the whole narrative of all of it. Even though, it's funny, MicroStrategy, I keep saying MicroStrategy,

• 24:32Speaker 01

  they're technically called strategy now, not MicroStrategy, even though the symbol is still MSTR. Anyway, they actually sold about $330 million worth of MSTR shares and put about 300 or so million into cash and turned around and bought another 520 Bitcoin like recently, just to kind of create a backstop to pay these interest payments instead of just selling Bitcoin, you know, constantly throughout. And so, they've stopped that strategy, but I think the damage is done in terms of, again, the symbolic nature of it. So, they're not, at least for now, they're not gonna sell more Bitcoin in the short term. They've, they've sort of created this, this cushion that's gonna pay this yield.

• 25:15Speaker 01

  But, the problem is, is

• 25:20Speaker 01

  as long as this number remains below par, remains 100 here, it's gonna put, it's gonna put an additional layer on Bitcoin directly. It's, you know, it's gonna cause, it's just gonna create a lot of negative sentiment and it's gonna create a lot of uncertainty, which again, we were just talking about how market participants don't like that. And what needs to happen is, it's sort of, unfortunately, it's kind of a chicken versus egg scenario. Like, really, what's gonna fix this is Bitcoin needs to get back up to around this kind of 75,000, 80,000 range, which is the cost basis for strategy.

• 26:02Speaker 01

  You know, and in doing that, that will help stabilize this.

• 26:07Speaker 01

  This and get it back to par value, but in order to get this back to par value, or I'm sorry, this has to get back to par value, sort of in order for Bitcoin to get back. So it's like, one of these has to happen, they're both sort of reflexive off of the other. You know, this has to get to 100, Bitcoin needs to get to 75 or 80. You need one to do the other, and you need both to happen. In other words, so I think what's ultimately going to happen is Bitcoin needs kind of an independent catalyst to come along and rocket it out of its, its, its stretch that it's in right now. It needs a catalyst to bump it back up around the 75, 80 mark. That will help stabilize this, which will in turn help stabilize Bitcoin and make it sort of, again, more stable going forward.

• 26:52Speaker 01

  So in the moment, it's not, like I said, it's not existential. This isn't FTX, this isn't Luna, this isn't Bitcoin is going to zero. They have, like I said, they have a strategy in place to cushion this situation and pay the yield on this right now for the short term, for the foreseeable future. It's only if, really, it's only if Bitcoin stays at these low, low levels for a long time and maybe never recovers or doesn't recover for several, several more months, that this will ultimately become more problematic. But right now, I think people are kind of making too much of a big deal out of it, and it's just like a psychological impact that's, that's exacerbating itself. So people need to just calm down.

• 27:36Speaker 01

  This isn't going to break Bitcoin, it hasn't broken Bitcoin, and there are relatively easy ways for this to kind of get back into a safe condition. It's just not at the moment. So everybody just calm down, basically, is the message with this.

• 27:55Speaker 00

  Yeah. All right, fair enough. So it seems like strategy is getting stress tested right now, kind of by, I guess, the complexity that is inherent in that whole, their whole, you know, strategy and how they operate. And one bad week in that strategy, or especially with STRC, can cause them to not do, keep up with those buys, right? So I guess that's when it's, everything is fine, just not right now.

• 28:25Speaker 01

  Yeah, exactly. I think it's, yeah, totally, totally.

• 28:29Speaker 02

  So a quick break in your regular programming. If you're serious about your future, grab my free report called Prepare for 2030. I think you've got five years to make as much money as possible, and this guide will help you navigate what's coming. The link is in the description. Download it now.

• 28:46Speaker 01

  I think it's important to note that this is not, you know, this is not like a shock. This is like a supply shock or some kind of structural problem with Bitcoin. This is what we're seeing is the bid is a pause. There's no catalyst for Bitcoin right now. There's no bid for Bitcoin, not from, not from strategy, not from institutions. Like if we look at ETFs, if we go over here and look at ETFs, we can see that they've been, they've been just, you know, unloading Bitcoin. So there's no sort of marginal buyer for Bitcoin right now. These are the, these are the ETFs specifically, though it's, they've kind of leveled out, like if I can kind of zoom in here, oops.

• 29:29Speaker 01

  It's leveled out at least, it's not sort of trending down as much, but we're not seeing, we're not seeing a marginal buyer come from ETFs right now. So there's no marginal buyer in ETFs. There's not really any in Dats. We know there's not retail, so there's just no catalyst. That's Bitcoin's bigger issue is there's no, there's no reason to buy it right now. There's less of a reason to sell it, but there's no reason to buy it. And so that's the problem. And so as long as that's the issue, it's just going to plod sideways here and it's going to be, because there's no, there's no marginal buyer, it's going to be volatile, like we talked about at the top of the show.

• 30:11Speaker 01

  Less liquidity, thinner order books means higher volatility because less people are buying and less people are selling. So you're going to have fewer people in the, in the system on the exchanges, which means it takes less money to move the needle. So we're going to see big spikes to the upside and we're going to see big spikes to the downside and we're going to see a lot of just chop for the next, like I said, probably two to three to four months. So that's, that's Bitcoin. That's the situation that we're in.

• 30:41Speaker 00

  Yeah, it seems it's honestly, it it seems like a playbook at this point like we just experienced the major drawdown, which probably shook a lot of people out. And now at this point, it's just like now it's going to be the plotting of the sideways and it's a patience game. And some people are going to lose that patience and be shaken out a little bit more, uh, just until those few months, you know, end and we're right back to, uh, to game on. Uh, that's what it seems like to me.

• 31:13Speaker 01

  Yeah, e- exactly, exactly. Um, this is a good, like, I, I definitely want to discourage people from trying to trade this environment. These are exactly the types of environments that, that market makers thrive in because they, they're the only things going right now. They're, they're the ones that are moving the price up and down into pockets of liquidity to execute their, their orders. And so, like, you're, you're just trading against market makers and you're, you're gonna lose because they've got a lot more money than you do and they can see everything mapped out and they know where to move the price, you know, even marginally, the, the market makers aren't going to dictate any trends. They're just going to move the price a little bit here and there, up and down, chop sideways,

• 31:57Speaker 01

  um, just to kind of, again, execute their orders because that's how they make their money, um, through these spreads. And so that, to be clear, they don't make money by liquidating you. They don't make money by taking your money. They make money from the spreads. So don't think that market makers are out there to destroy you. They're just creating a market. They're providing the market for it to exist while there's no other sort of buyers and sellers in place. And so we need them, but, um, also, don't, don't give your money to them. Well, you're not giving your money to them, but just don't, don't flush your money down the toilet, I should say, by trading against, uh, market makers right now in such sort of illiquid, thin, uh, thin order book times right now. So, yeah.

• 32:41Speaker 00

  All right. Um, I want to take this question here from Loopy. A little bit of it, it's an AI question, but I mean, we can still do some TA on it, of course. Chris, can you see an entry point for Marvell?

• 32:57Speaker 01

  Uh, yeah, let's take a look. Um.

• 33:05Speaker 01

  Well, this is actually pretty, pretty good what I'm seeing here. The fact that it's below its 20-day moving average. So that's already like a decent, a decent level. But let me, let me kind of look at a few other things here first before I say that. So it's at a decent level on the daily. But if we switch out to the weekly here, clearly we're still very, very overextended, way, way above its 10-week moving average for that matter. So there could be still some more room to come down here. And given that, well, it's, I mean, with anything that we, we kind of talked about this yesterday on the show we did yesterday. Right now, everything's going to be predicated by the Micron earnings call that comes out at the end of, at the close of markets today.

• 33:47Speaker 01

  That's going to be the big binary event for all of AI stocks going forward. Like, so we need to figure, I would say, don't do anything until we know how, how it stands with Micron. But yeah, so I would wait and see if we can get a touchdown to this 10, 10-week moving average right around 220, give or take. See if we can get some more, particularly if the, the Micron call comes out negative or even neutral, you know.

• 34:21Speaker 01

  Then that'll, that'll cause all of this to kind of lag down a little bit. That said, a lot of the experts are saying that it's probably going to come in hot and probably even be bullish. Now, it's going to have to come in extremely hot and way over expectations. So even just like a little bit above expectations is probably going to result in a bit of a sell-off. So, because all of this stuff is, you know, quote, "price for perfection," meaning they have to deliver and then some, above and beyond everything that everybody is estimating and predicting in order for this rally to continue. And as soon as there's any kind of hint that either capex is waning or earnings are waning

• 35:00Speaker 01

  or margins are waning or demand is waning at all, even a little bit, you know how the, I mean, the market overreact, just like we looked at with the STRC thing, everybody panics. And so we'll get a big Rerating of all of this stuff and that's going to mean that likely we're going to see some some pretty big mean reversions back to these these bigger moving averages across the board here. And so I don't know what's going to happen. It's anybody's guess. I'm not even going to attempt to predict how that's going to play out. But that's what I would be wary of. So looking at this, yeah, maybe you get lucky. Maybe you get kind of a cheeky buy at around 220. But if we go back to the daily.

• 35:42Speaker 01

  Well, we're sort of at the, yeah, we're at the the daily 20 day moving average. So I'm like, if this doesn't hold, like right here, if this doesn't hold and it doesn't bounce off of this, then there's a decent chance it's going to come back down to the to the 10 week here. So.

• 36:01Speaker 01

  Yeah, and it's a pretty mixed bag, like looking at all of kind of the AI market. Although it's sort of gotten progressively worse since this show started. It was a little bit more even, I think, even like an hour ago. Like, most of the power names, probably more than half of the power names were in the green. You know, more than half of the opticals were in the green. Semis were already ugly. They're continuing to be ugly. They're almost all entirely red. Whole Rack was doing OK. Chemicals were actually a little better, too. But even one more of those has flipped red. ENTG was green earlier today. So it's leaning more red today than green. But yeah, again, it's all predicated on what happens with Micron at the end of the day.

• 36:44Speaker 01

  So everybody just be watching that, like, everybody be glued to the Micron call and the the report that comes out of that. And you can look at the after hours, trading after that, although that's a very illiquid market. But it'll give you at least a hint on what what the, you know, the money's leaning towards. And go from that. But right now, I wouldn't be buying or selling anything today. You know, I probably shouldn't have said that, but like, just there's a big event coming up that's going to create some volatility, particularly in AI stocks. And I think that you should, you know, be focused on the outcome of that before you make any decisions. I'll leave it at that.

• 37:26Speaker 00

  All right. How about, let's go on over to hype. It dropped below, I believe it dropped below $60 during this show. Let's see if we're on track to my road to $300 hype.

• 37:41Speaker 01

  Um, yeah, we're seeing a pretty big sell off kind of across the board. That's literally happening as, as we're doing this show. It's, it's getting uglier by the minute.

• 37:50Speaker 01

  Hype is, you know, hype did, okay, so hype peaked back, was it here or here? Or maybe actually set a higher high here. So it actually peaked last week, which is pretty good.

• 38:02Speaker 01

  I like looking at this on the weekly timeframe. This is bullish to me because it had a, it had a correction here. Came back down, mean reverted, touched its 10 week moving average, came back, set a higher high. And now it's correcting again, but it's still well above its 10 week moving average. So now let's look at this on the daily. It's definitely rolled over on the daily.

• 38:24Speaker 01

  Not a, not a great look. It's funny more, this more looks like a double top now, but technically it did poke a higher high.

• 38:31Speaker 01

  Um, as long as it doesn't lose this level here that it came down to this 53, well, hold on, we'll call it. We'll call it, um.

• 38:43Speaker 01

  We'll call it 5330. That's kind of the big line in the sand for me. That's the support level. If it loses this. This will become a, a rollover structure. Like this will have lost its uptrend. It's already sort of technically lost its uptrend on the daily timeframe. But it will have gone from uptrend to chop to having rolled over. And so we don't want to see it lose that. I'm fine with it chopping for a little bit. And consolidating off the back of a pretty big rally. Like that's okay. We don't want to see it lose this level and start setting lower lows because then. Then we're, we're no longer in a larger uptrend. And if you can kind of look at this on the weekly, so. Yeah, I mean, that would look like it would lose its 10-week moving average. It would kind of probably be on its way back down to its 20-week moving average.

• 39:26Speaker 01

  Well, this is still not the end of the world. I mean, technically, it's still in a weekly uptrend as long as it bounces off this 20-week moving average. That's all the way down here at 45 bucks, and that's a long way to go from 60 that it's sitting at right now. So, yes, technically, it's okay. It's still not a good look. It would still be bad, in my opinion. So, I think we're just seeing a broader consolidation here. This is certainly like consistent with what we're seeing across the board with other asset classes. So, this is by no means specific to hyperliquid. If anything, it's obviously holding up much better than most because it's still so far above its major moving averages and is still, you know, in an uptrend technically.

• 40:08Speaker 01

  So, like, if you compare this to Bitcoin or even most stocks right now, it looks, it still looks better than, than a lot. So, I'm not worried. It's still healthy, but, you know, we do want to see a sort of a constructive resolution here. We want to see it either bounce off of this 10-week moving average here or, at the worst, not lose this sort of 53 level here and set a new lower low on this daily timeframe here. So, yeah.

• 40:43Speaker 00

  All right. Is there anything else in the crypto world that, I mean, because I just looked as well, just looked again to see from when we started this shit, literally, everything's in the red. Maybe like AVE was, you know, in the green by like a percent, 2%. But is there anything else like here that is, I know hype has been like, obviously, the story for crypto of 2026, basically. But is there like anything here beyond that that we can, you know, take and maybe put to a watch list or keep an eye on, you think?

• 41:18Speaker 01

  Well, let's, yeah, let's see. Instead of looking at sort of how bad everything is, let's look and see at what is the least bad, or is sort of showing the most relative strength, I guess, is maybe a better way to say that. And, I mean, it's funny, I keep hammering, I come back to Tron, you know, Tron is still, you know, it corrected, it bounced off of its big weekly moving averages, it's kind of broken out, it's doing a retest, and I think if it can bounce here and continue to grind upwards, it still looks good to me. And also, while everything is down 5, 6, 7, 12, 15 plus percent, it's only down 1% on

• 42:02Speaker 01

  the day. So, there's Tron for you. It's just like, yep, cruising right along, no big deal. Canton is another one that has shown-

• 42:13Speaker 00

  It's like corning in a sense, because I remember yesterday we were talking about corning, and you're like, this is not going to blow you away, but it's going to be a steady grind, it's a good anchor, it's going to steadily go up, it's not going to be, go up as much as the others, but it won't go down as much as the others. It seems like Tron has just been doing exactly that ever since we've talked about it.

• 42:31Speaker 01

  As a quick aside, corning is up 7% today, while everything else is bleeding. So, there's corning for you, you know, just like you said. So, Canton is another one that is just, again, showing some decent relative strength. It's only down about 1.8%, it's holding its major moving average as well. Now, granted, it's not doing much of anything either, so you could argue, yeah, it's only down, but it's not really going up either, it's just kind of literally going sideways. And that's true, but it's showing resilience, people aren't ditching it, you know, they're not looking to panic sell it. So, I guess

• 43:13Speaker 01

  I want to look at Venice, just to sort of see how it's doing. Venice is not faring as well as Hyperliquid, in terms of structurally, because unlike Hyperliquid, it's already broken down out of its daily sort of pivot points that it had, you know, over the, over the last month or so. It had a, it had a bottom here, it had another, it kind of double-bottomed right here, and at this moment, it's actually broken down below both of those levels. Now, on the weekly, it still looks okay, just like- Hype did, but also it's below its 10-week moving average, whereas Hyperliquid, I believe, is above it still. So yeah, so Venice officially looks uglier than Hype. And it's probably kind of coming back to earth a little bit.

• 43:56Speaker 01

  So we're gonna see how, we're gonna see how strong Venice really is. We're gonna see if it can hold this, this 20-week moving average and just maintain a proper technical mean reversion, kind of like it did back here, and keep this trend going, or, or not. So it still looks good, it's not a bearish divergence. I mean, this peak did, you know, show a higher high on the RSI. It kind of peaked right at a D mark 9 on the weekly, so it was due for a correction. Also, it was very, very overextended, there's a huge gap here. So this is not like, again, the end of the world. This isn't even remotely close to a trend reversal. This isn't even technically a mean reversion, let alone a trend reversal. So like, it's still fine, but also it's, it's a bit ugly.

• 44:40Speaker 01

  So again, it'll come down to, does it, does it hold here? Does it bounce here, or does it lose this level? That's gonna be the key. Obviously, this is something that if you're not in it, you would want to wait until there's some resolution here and some clarity in terms of which way the market wants to go with this. So this is much more of a, of a wait and see.

• 45:03Speaker 01

  But yeah, outside of that, I don't know, what do we got here? Boy, everything else just looks terrible. It's all down multiple percent. The only other thing that's even down only a little bit is Monero, but it's down.

• 45:19Speaker 01

  It's only down 2.5% on the day. Let's see, and has been kind of holding relatively steady. I mean, it's below its, its moving averages, but it's not necessarily breaking down like, like a lot of this other stuff is. So yeah, that stands to reason though, because Monero has largely been pretty stable, not super volatile, sort of throughout its history. Like if you, if you kind of zoom way out, or even just let me look on the monthly here, it just kind of sticks in a big, long sideways range. Like it doesn't really have big crazy swings. It's just sort of plod sideways for a lot of, a lot of its existence, really. So that's typical.

• 46:07Speaker 01

  Yeah, I don't know.

• 46:09Speaker 00

  I do want to say, I do want to take just a real quick comment because Jamie released a note today on the platform. Uh, Jamie's portfolio is crypto one, uh, his cash position is now the highest it's ever been since inception. Uh, and he expects opportunities to emerge in H2.

• 46:31Speaker 01

  Yeah, a hundred percent. Um, I wish I was sitting in a larger.

• 46:35Speaker 00

  Where you want to be right now.

• 46:37Speaker 01

  Yeah, exactly. I wish like in, in my model portfolio, my crypto portfolio, I was in more cash than I am. I am, I do have a cash position there, but it's, it's only about a quarter and I, I wish it was more like half. Um, but yeah, I, I totally agree and, and I agree with the timing too. I think that H2, yes, that lines up with my sort of October general timeframe, but just based on the moving average trajectories and the price trajectory and things like that. Um, also the four year cycle, but I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna use that as a, as a catalyst or an excuse necessarily, but just, yeah, looking at the, and just looking at the, the macro and everything too. I, I still think that everything is going to kind of more

• 47:21Speaker 01

  coalesce in, in, uh, you know, Q3 and Q4 for sure. So I agree with that.

• 47:28Speaker 00

  Could be a fun Christmas.

• 47:30Speaker 01

  Yeah. Um, again, the, the, I think the, the main takeaway is be patient. Uh, there's, don't rush to, to buy the dip right now in, in Bitcoin or in crypto and think that, oh, you're going to miss the low and, uh, you better get in while it's good. You know, like, I think it's going to be choppy and it's going to be bumping around these levels and maybe bumping around even lower levels for some time now. Um, yeah, it's even, it's going even lower. It's now down to almost 50, 50,000. So, yeah, we're, we're officially bumping down into this lower range. We'll see where we close the day out. I mean, it's only a, it might end up only being a WIC, so we'll see. But, um, yeah, we're, it's not a, not a good look right now.

• 48:15Speaker 01

  Um, and we'll just see how it goes. So I think, look at this, if we do get down into this lower range and, and kind of cement into this lower range. That's a decent, you know, think of that as a decent opportunity. That's not like a panic, capitulate, panic sell type thing. Please don't do that. It's more of a, you know, this is what, this is what Chris has been talking about all this time, you know? And I think that this is where you would, you know, like a good DCA strategy would probably serve you well in a, in a, in a sort of structural regime like this.

• 48:52Speaker 00

  Yeah, and guys, and I'm gonna, I'm gonna just touch on that. Stick to your DCA strategy too. Don't be like me, following your strategy to a T and then the minute you saw a $73 Solana, you full ported the rest of your cash.

• 49:08Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 49:09Speaker 00

  Don't, don't do that. Just stick to your strategy. Okay, guys? That's the best advice I can give you. Because I wish I had more cash right now for that to DCA. Is, it's a bit small on, yeah, it's a bit small on my phone. Is that 50, is that 55K level, the one to DCA in at? The question comes from Chaos Theory.

• 49:32Speaker 01

  Yeah, so, so the range I have, like right now, in this moment, it's sitting at 59 to 50. I have the bottom of the range all the way down at about 52, 289. Obviously, that's kind of an arbitrary number. What I'm basing that number on, though, is the bottom of this range from this structure back here, this, this big sideways structure that we had back in, in 2024. This is like a huge, a very significant amount of trading activity, and this gives you clear sort of structural support and resistance levels based off of this. So, the bottom of that range got all the way down to around 52, 289. Call it 52,000, call it 50,000 if you want. I mean, give or take. We're not, we're not,

• 50:15Speaker 01

  I'm not saying that the actual bottom is 52,289. Like, that's not what I'm saying. I'm just saying that that's the general kind of ballpark range that, you know, we might find a low in. So,

• 50:29Speaker 01

  Yeah, or not. I mean, again, for all I know, this, what we're looking at right now in this moment turns out to be a WIC, and this is the lowest it ever gets. And I'm wrong, and next thing you know, we're back up at 75,000 in a week from now. But that also doesn't mean, that also doesn't mean, you know, go full poured in. It just means that, be ready for volatility, be ready for chop, because again, the whole thing is, the market is very liquid right now. The order books are very thin. You're gonna see the volatility because of that. So don't assume that because suddenly we're back up at the top of this range, that that means we're off to the races. You have to, you have to dig deeper. You have to understand

• 51:11Speaker 01

  why that is where, you know, why it is that way. And it's, it's because of the volatility and the lack of liquidity, not the opposite. You know, but once we see liquidity coming in, once we see new highs in liquidity, once we see money coming in through like the, the federal banking system and, you know, all the sort of liquidity levers, where money can come from, and you see like a bid from institutions, from ETFs, and you see retail coming in, that's when like you know that like we're starting to, the bottom is in and we're starting to rally. So don't just look at price alone and think that it's good. There's a lot more that goes into it. And you have to make sure that you are factoring all of that into the equation. So, yeah.

• 51:53Speaker 00

  All right. All right, everyone. We will, we'll be back on Monday for our World According to AI to talk more, do more TA in the world of AI. And of course, we'll be back again on Wednesday for our Trading the Markets show. Until then, guys, don't fuck this up. Head on over to realvision.com/pricing and get yourself a Connect membership. Join us starting at $14 a month, or $149, or

• 52:26Speaker 00

  I don't know how the math works out. I think it's like 149 for the year. Come on in, join us and connect. You'll get access to three portfolios and they're dynamic portfolios. I just want to say they're not set in stone. So if you're like just coming in now, don't think like you missed it because you see like Marvel up like 200 plus percent and things like that. These are our contributors. They're in the markets every day. You know, Chris, Andreas, Julian, Jamie, these guys are looking at charts like honestly, probably like every hour. So they're like, they're, they're always thinking of trades to take. They're having things on their watch list that they're always talking about in their reports or in Chris's

• 53:08Speaker 00

  case, in the reports and in Discord or on, on shows as well. So keep that in mind when you're coming in. Uh, because while you may have missed Marvel, you, you'll be right in time for the next Marvel, uh, or the next, you know, Rocket Labs or all of that. So just keep that in mind about these portfolios. And if you have any questions, uh, Chris is very active in the Discord. You can always ask him a direct question about his thoughts or he's more than happy to, to be transparent about that guy. So, um, don't fuck this up. We'll see you guys again on Monday. Have a great weekend, everyone.

• 53:44Speaker 02

  You obviously enjoyed the episode because you're here with me at the end. But listen, don't forget to go to realvision.com/join and grab a free membership. It's an incredible community packed with alpha, great investment ideas and the research that you need to help you unfuck your future. So get started now. Go to realvision.com/join.