Are Financial Conditions Finally Turning for Crypto? | Trading The Markets Aug. 06, 2026

Bijan Maleki and Kris Bullock join Real Vision members to break down the crypto charts, market conditions, and trades that matter right now. They examine current financial conditions, which are approaching their most favorable levels in two months. Why that change matters for bitcoin, crypto, and other risk assets before examining the extremely tight volatility squeeze forming around bitcoin near the $64,000 level. Let Monarch do your financial 'spring cleaning' for you! Use code REALVISION at Monarch.com to get your first year half off at just $50. 👉 Have a question for Kris? Join our Discord channel: https://discord.gg/FTQsrUhD9Z. Today’s sponsor is Plus500 US. Take your trading to the next level with cross-market contracts, from precious metals to key indices, and more. Whether you’re a seasoned trader in the Futures arena or brand new, Plus500’s user-friendly trading platform offers you the advanced tools, market insights, and quick execution you’ve been looking for. Get started with Plus500 for as little as $100 at https://us.plus500.com. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss. Timestamps: 00:00 - Bitcoin Setup: Is a Major Breakout Coming? 01:12 - Financial Conditions Turn Bullish for Crypto 05:00 - Bitcoin Volatility Squeeze: What Happens Next? 10:03 - Nasdaq, AI Stocks & the Macro Outlook 14:34 - Hyperliquid, Tron & Crypto’s Strongest Charts 19:06 - Ondo, Morpho & the DeFi Leaders to Watch 21:28 - Uniswap Breakout: Is UNI Ready to Run? 24:58 - Zcash, Privacy Coins & the Next Opportunity 27:55 - AI Infrastructure Stocks: Is AAOI a Buy? 33:25 - Gold vs Bitcoin: Where Is Smart Money Going? 41:32 - Top Crypto Picks: Hyperliquid, Uniswap & Ondo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

• 0:06Speaker 00

  Happy Wednesday, everyone. We were live. I hope you didn't catch that conversation before we went live. But if you do want to catch those, just join us in Discord. We hang out here before the show, and you can also take part in the live conversation. This is Trading the Markets here every Wednesday. This is the show where we do TA. We look at the markets. We look at crypto, you know, chart some price action. And of course, we take all your questions to see what's on your guys' minds. So if you have any questions, just drop them in the chat, and we will get to whatever we can. Obviously, we weren't here last week, so we have quite a show for you guys today. We're happy to be back. And you know what? Let me shut up and let's just get right into it. Chris, happy Wednesday.

• 0:50Speaker 01

  Happy Wednesday. Yes, I'm glad to have you back, glad to be back, glad that the show is working this week. I was, yeah, so bummed last week that we couldn't make it work. But anyway, yeah, good stuff. The good news is that like, things are actually a lot better this week than they were last week anyway. So like, I'm gonna have a lot more fun reporting on, you know, good news today than I would have been all doom and gloom last week. So for what it's worth, I guess it worked out.

• 1:19Speaker 01

  So yeah, so I want to start, as you know, I've kind of built this financial conditions dashboard, and it's become my go-to. I watch it a lot. I kind of check it every day. And so I want to start by talking about that because it's relevant. Finally, again, for the first time in, well, several weeks now, if not even a couple of months, we're starting to look like we might be getting back into a favorable state of affairs. So let's start by looking at this financial conditions, this metric here. And this, just quickly to recap, this measures real yield, credit spreads, the dollar index, and equity volatility. And it is, for the first time, at the lowest it's been since it flipped red back at the beginning of June.

• 2:03Speaker 01

  So for the first time in eight weeks, give or take, we're at the lowest point. And 50/50 is the threshold for coming off of the tight red bars into a more sort of gray neutral state. And right now, we're at 51. So we're inching very close to going from red to neutral. And as I've, as I've mentioned a number of times, even a neutral state is favorable enough a lot of the times for things to start moving. And so we're close. We're really close. We're, it's hovering back and forth between 51 and 52 right now, which is good. Also, another noteworthy thing, looking at the S&P 500 market breadth,

• 2:44Speaker 01

  it's the highest that it's been in over two, I think, two years, going back to November, well, November of 2024. So almost two years, not quite. But like, that's pretty significant, too. It broke out of this range that it's been in, and it's the highest. So this is, this is a very healthy market signal to see market breadth be this high. It's not, it's telling us that it's not just an AI story that's kind of running, you know, that's, that's doing well market-wise. Also, other big things, I don't know if you, I think the last show we had, not the, well, not last week, obviously, but the previous show to that, I spent a segment talking about some of the things I wanted to see in order for things to start looking good. And two of the big things that I mentioned

• 3:25Speaker 01

  were for Global M2 to break out of this long sideways consolidation range that it's been stuck in since the middle of April, and for the dollar index to get back down into this long sideways range that it's been in for many months as well. And we can see both of those things have happened. The dollar, or I'm sorry, the M2 did break out. It set a significantly higher high, and the dollar has dropped back down into the range. So good things are happening. This is what we need to see. We're moving in the right direction. And then finally, another thing I wanted to see that I mentioned, I want to see the VIX cool back down. It had been spiking up here in the 20s for, for several days in a row.

• 4:07Speaker 01

  It did have a spike today, but it dropped way back down. It was just a quick, quick spike. And it's, it's down on the day. It's hovering down in the 15s. So that's good, too. We're seeing volatility get tempered. We're seeing bond yields come down, stabilize. That's going to ultimately impact real yields. So like I said, all of the things are starting to come in place. And so it's not surprising that off the back of that, we're seeing all-time highs in, you know, the S&P. So stocks are doing well. Now, the big question is, does it translate into crypto? And that's, that's, that's what we need to see. That's, so that brings up the next phase. Here's looking at Bitcoin, and we can see that Bitcoin, this shaded area around it,

• 4:49Speaker 01

  indicates what's called a volatility squeeze. This is essentially just the Bollinger bands getting really, really tight. So the Bollinger bands have been tight for quite a while. They're usually not, you can see some of these other shaded areas. They typically don't do this for this long of a period of time. They did, you know, back here it was, but otherwise, it's usually just like a week, a week and a half tops, whatever. It's been like this for quite a while, since the middle of July, really. So this typically means we're due for a breakout. It doesn't necessarily say which direction the breakout's gonna go, but based on looking at the financial conditions, looking at the stock market, you could make an argument that the odds are more in favor for a breakout to the upside,

• 5:32Speaker 01

  particularly since price has actually been trending up. Also, we had a D-Mark 9 that triggered here, and we've had a couple of trend reversals that have triggered. So it's, it's showing that the winds are blowing in favor of an upward breakout. Now, of course, this is, this isn't a guarantee, but I'm getting, I guess there's more signal that's signaling upwards price action than downwards price action. So, and I don't know when it's gonna happen. It might not happen for another week. It might happen tomorrow. But things are being, things are squeezed. Volatility is squeezed, and at some point, it's gonna break in one direction. And so that's interesting to me, too.

• 6:09Speaker 01

  Yeah, I think overall, not a lot of crypto looks great, which I'm gonna dig into. There's a few that look good on the daily. There's a few that look good on the weekly, which I think we'll talk about. But outside of this, I still think we're in, largely in a bottoming pattern overall. There's nothing really that's changed in terms of like, like new users, like new retail onboarding from US, like through the Coinbase premium, that's, that's reflected there. That hasn't changed at all. ETF flows haven't really changed. In fact, they've been negative the last two weeks, just below negative. It's not like a huge outflow, but it's, it's, it's mostly break even, but slightly in the red. So we're not really seeing a lot of money coming into Bitcoin, hence why we're seeing this volatility squeeze, basically.

• 6:53Speaker 01

  But with financial conditions improving, that's going to potentially be reflected in things like ETFs, potentially. So we could see inflows coming off the back of that. Again, it's still early. We're not, we're not quite there yet. I mean, we're still in the red here. I need to see gray. So once we get a gray, that could be the, the trigger we need to break out of that volatility squeeze and, and get some good, you know, ETF inflows, get some good upward price action.

• 7:22Speaker 01

  Whether that's gonna trickle down into the rest of crypto, I'm still pretty skeptical on that. Like, if I look at the, you know, crypto altcoin season, I think there's only like 18 tokens that are even in the green out of the top 100 in the past 90 days. That's pretty ugly. There's, there's several more that are outpacing Bitcoin, so there's a total of 44 that are outpacing Bitcoin. But of those 44, only 18 are actually like in a, in a green uptrend. You know, the rest of them are just not losing as bad as Bitcoin. So, but there's some that we're gonna talk about today. Of course, there's the big, common ones that, that seem to always be there, like Hyperliquid, Uniswap, Near keeps coming up, Ondo keeps coming up.

• 8:02Speaker 01

  So we'll get into some of those. But overall, the rest of crypto is still pretty meh. Like, if we look at crypto market cap or crypto breadth, we're, you know, hovering down in the, in the low, or in the high 20s, high 29% right now in terms of the top 200 advancing. So, and that's been downtrending for a while, too. So not a lot of crypto doing well. It's, it's a lot of the same ones that we talk about each week, but there are some interesting things. And then finally, I want to, we'll look at a few specifically, but I want to go through looking at a lot of crypto through the lens of this Williams Alligator indicator, which is kind of a fun indicator that I pull up every few months or so, and it gives an interesting perspective. Just, it's a good way to look at things and sort of compare like relative strength.

• 8:47Speaker 01

  Like, what, what is an example of a really good-looking chart versus a bad-looking chart? Unfortunately, Bitcoin is not a good-looking chart in this, this regard. But we'll, we'll dig into a lot of these. So that's kind of where I want to go. But yeah, that's kind of the quick nutshell, what's going on. I think things are trending in the right direction. Financial conditions are easing off. We'll see how much it trickles into, into crypto, but that's kind of the, the nuts and bolts of where we're at right now.

• 9:14Speaker 00

  Yeah, absolutely. Falls in line with Jamie Coots' trend chameleon as well. I think I just saw yesterday. It was eight, I think it was 18, and then yesterday, briefly, for a little bit, it was 21 out of the top 100. But that was like over 24 hours, almost 24 hours ago now. And Bitcoin's risk-off on his indicator as well. Bitcoin was actually one of the signal changes to the downside that changed in his trend chameleon. So right in line, also shows me Jamie Coots' trend chameleon indicator is awesome. So check it out if you haven't. Chris, I saw some, I guess we're starting with Bitcoin first, because I saw some very interesting coins

• 9:56Speaker 00

  in that top 18 that we, that we have kind of forgotten about, that I definitely also want us to, to look at. But yeah, go ahead, pick, pick the chart and let's dive into it. Oh, actually, no, sorry. Before we get into that, I had a question for you, because... Nasdaq, right just yesterday, believe it hit an all-time high. We had the SpaceX earnings, which beat, which beat S and P, sorry, right, which beat the, the earnings. But I'm seeing some people saying it's a relief rally and not to buy into it. And obviously, that's, that, that greater is going to impact, that, that greater effect's going to impact crypto. What are, what are your thoughts on, on that?

• 10:33Speaker 01

  I mean, it's funny, if you'd have asked me on Friday or Saturday or Sunday, I would have made that same argument. I was kind of coming into this week very skeptical, thinking that this week was going to kind of be the tell in terms of how the, the WASH press conference was, was processed and absorbed, you know, and so far, so good. I can't find it. Anyway, I, I should have, I should have bookmarked it. But basically, I had made a, I had made a chart that showed like, I noted where, like, right during the worst conference, and you could see, it was, it was an S and P futures chart, mini-futures, and it dropped way down right after the worst speech. And then I was like, I want to see how this closes out the

• 11:16Speaker 01

  week. Like, if it closes out the week in the, in the green, or at least above the level where the worst press conference was, then that will tell me that, like, the market largely absorbed any of the, any of the sort of hawkishness that came about from his speech. And it actually closed the week out in the green overall. So I think, I think overall, we're seeing, and then I feel like this week is going to be the tell. Like, as, as long as this week kind of goes up, I feel like, again, any of the hawkishness will have been absorbed. I think that's also being reflected by, by, oops, by bond yields, which are trending down. They've continued to trend down. They've both, they've broken down below their, their daily moving averages, like, not both, well, I'm just looking at like the 10-year and the

• 11:59Speaker 01

  2-year, but the, the proxies for the, the, you know, the bigger ones too. And so, they're trending down. And so, to me, that's telling me that, like, even without him actually pulling any levers, the market is reacting favorably. I think just across the board, too, the rest of the financial conditions entering into more favorable territory, too, is telling me that, like, I think we're, I don't think we're necessarily looking at a relief rally here, necessarily. I guess time will tell. But my gut is, particularly if this week closes with a solid green, overall, like on the weekly candle, I'm, you know, and, if that happens, and financial conditions ultimately close the week under that 50 threshold, that

• 12:44Speaker 01

  50% threshold, and get into sort of neutral territory at least, then I think that, you know, we're, we're looking at a decent, I don't know, I don't know what we're looking at. But I just don't think it's necessarily like a relief rally, a dead cat bounce kind of thing like that. I think that it's, there's more to it than that. Also, the COSPI continuing to show strength since then, I think is indicative, too, of risk appetite coming back on. And I think, too, the big deal with situational awareness, I think that that actually will act as like a stabilization mechanism, you know, because it's sort of taken out of the hands of a, somebody who's a little bit more risky and put into the hands of somebody who is more risk averse, who operates with a different risk profile, who's going to

• 13:28Speaker 01

  manage those positions differently. And I think that that's going to help reduce some of the volatility that we're, that we were seeing, certainly some of the selling we were seeing in the AI sector. So, all of those things combined, I think, is going to lead us to, there's, there's more to this than, than we think. Particularly since it kind of has come to light that a lot of the selling, particularly over the past two weeks, was the product of situational awareness, you know, and the leverage and the, and the unwinding of a lot of these positions that were, that were over-leveraged and things like that. And so, yeah, I, I think that we're potentially in the clear for now, but, but we'll, we'll see, again, ultimately.

• 14:11Speaker 00

  Yep. All right. Yeah, just as a reminder, I think the 30-year, 30-year rates have crossed or neared 7%, which is pretty hot.

• 14:25Speaker 01

  Crazy.

• 14:26Speaker 00

  Yeah, no, pretty crazy. All right, let's see. So we have the Bitcoin chart up, and I think you were looking at the alligator.

• 14:33Speaker 01

  Yeah, so let's look at the Williams alligator. So this is on, on the weekly timeframe specifically, because I wanted to get a sense of, like, which assets are really actually showing strength and are in real, true, weekly, solid uptrends, you know, that are actually like bucking the, the bull mark, or the bear market, rather, that, that the rest of crypto is in. And this is a good way to visualize that. Obviously, it's just one way. You guys know I use tons of different indicators, but this is just one way. And so, we can look at Bitcoin, and we can see, obviously, this is, this is a perfect example of a bad-looking chart. You know, this is, this is sort of the bull, I'm saying, the bear market exemplified. You know, all three of these in the, in the full downtrending order. This is an example of

• 15:17Speaker 01

  what you don't want to see. But I'll go through just the quick top handful, and then I'm going to dig into the ones that actually look good. So, you know, here's Bitcoin, here's, here's Ethereum. Ethereum looks a little better. You can see at least that one of them has started to round back upwards, but it's obviously still nowhere close to where it needs to be. Solana, kind of the same thing, but not as good as Ethereum. We'll look at Sui, kind of the same thing, more, more like Bitcoin than the other two, honestly.

• 15:48Speaker 01

  But here's, you know, here's where it starts to get a little bit interesting. Let's look at Tron. Tron is like, well, it's a complete opposite picture. Now, it's not awesome, it's more just like flat, but at least all of the moving averages are in the order that they should be in to, you know, show that it's in an uptrend. Yes, it is flat right now, you know, that's, that's true. But, like, this is more what you want to see. You want to see green, red, blue. That's the order that these need to be in. And Tron is the complete opposite picture. The rest of them, not so much. Looking at XRP, ugly. B and B, ugly, you know, to kind of round out, round out the, the rest of the big, big dogs in the top 10. But here's, here's a few that look good. We know Hyperliquid is in that

• 16:31Speaker 01

  conversation. Hyperliquid looks good. Now, it's kind of rolling over, but it did, Hyperliquid has bounced, and Hyperliquid, as I've talked about in recent weeks, has been largely coupled with the Nasdaq. And we know the Nasdaq hit a major moving average, a 20-week moving average, and bounced perfectly off of it. So too has Hyperliquid, and it's showing some resilience. It's, it's very, again, very coupled with the Nasdaq, and it's doing exactly what that's doing. So as long as the Nasdaq keeps going, I think Hyperliquid probably will, will go with it. So, Hyperliquid looks good. It needs to rebound, though, because pretty soon, we're going to get a crossover here, and that's going to, that's going to start to put some chinks in that armor a little bit. Next is Near. Near looks pretty, hold on, I got Near right towards.

• 17:20Speaker 01

  Near looks better than most, although it already is starting to lose, lose its steam. It needs to, it needs to bounce, too. Like, it was doing really good primarily off the back of this giant weekly candle that it had here, where it went up like 58% in this one week, and it sort of bled out ever since then. But it did bounce on this level here, on this major support level that it had, you know, cleared before, that it broke out from. So that was a good sign. Obviously, it needs to continue this bounce and reverse this trend. It's starting to give back this, this sort of reversal that it had, but nevertheless, it looks a lot better than the rest of the crypto space, basically. The next one that's

• 18:00Speaker 01

  caught my eye, that actually looks pretty interesting, is Pump. Pump isn't there yet, but it's in the process of, of, of going through that reversal. You know, it's got one crossover, too. It's, it's going to have a second crossover here pretty soon. And then, you know, we'll have sort of all three crossed over before too long, if it keeps up this trend. But it's put in some really mega weeks, like in the last couple of months. It's got a 36% week here. On the current week, it's up 17%. And it's generating money.

• 18:31Speaker 01

  It's, you know, it's doing well. So it's, it's one of the handful that are generating a lot of revenue and, you know, doing the thing that it needs to do, sort of with a real-world audience that we know of. So I like Pump. Another one is, let's look at Venice, because we know that's been one that has been solid. Venice looks a lot like Hyperliquid in that it, you know, had a huge rally, has corrected, but obviously, it's still, all three in the right order, and it's still sort of setting a, well, hopefully, this stays as a, a higher low anyway, and continues this bounce. But Venice is in the conversation of something that is, has been completely bucking the trend for the entire time. Ondo

• 19:15Speaker 01

  is another one that is really kind of jumping out at me lately. Ondo is another one of those that, like, is, I think, it's like accelerating out of the bottom, like, like, like you could say the, the Pump chart was, or even the Near chart to some degree, where it's, it's not like been in an uptrend for a year like Venice or Hyperliquid necessarily, or for the year-to-date, but it's accelerating out of the bottoming pattern. It bottomed along with everything else, and it's starting to show more relative strength than a lot of the majors, you know, like the likes of Ethereum and Bitcoin and Solana and those. It's, it's one of those that's like, doing well, it has relevance because of its, you know, real-world tokenized assets, that sort of thing. It's making waves, and it's in

• 19:59Speaker 01

  the process of fully reversing this bottoming pattern and turning into a, a strong weekly uptrend. You know, it's coming out of a bottoming pattern, which I like. And so, this is one that I feel like is something you want to keep an eye on, to be looking for like a, a long-term entry on. I'm not saying it's there yet, but I'm just saying that this is something that is showing significant relative strength coming out of the bottoming pattern, and I like the way it looks. So another one similar, another, another DeFi one is Morpho. Morpho looks good. Looks even better, honestly. Now, it's arguably a bit flat over the last several weeks, but look at this. I mean, look at, you know, this is

• 20:41Speaker 01

  what you need to see. The moving averages are all in the right order, and they're generally all trending up. Now, they've started to kind of roll over, so it needs to break out of this a little bit. But I think that this is another one that should be on people's radars. I think DeFi, anything related to DeFi that's generating cash, anything that's related to real-world tokenized assets is going to, going to generate money, is going to have a, a sort of product-market fit outside of crypto, you know, that, that sort of TradFi is going to be interested in. And this fits in that category. Ondo fits in that category. The next one, Uniswap, also fits in that category. Uniswap has been pretty, pretty interesting of late. Where is it here? One of these days, I need to put this in like

• 21:25Speaker 01

  alphabetical order. Let me just type it in.

• 21:34Speaker 01

  So Uniswap is another one too that's showing strength coming out of the bottom. Just again, just like Ondo, just like Morpho. I like this too. So we've had one crossover here. We're angling towards another crossover. It's, yeah, I mean, it's like if I, I'm gonna kind of dig into Uniswap for a second actually, and look at it through this lens too. Because it's, it's, it's solid. Like it's looking solid. It's triggering, like it flipped the megatrend green a few weeks back. It's worked its way back above the 200-day moving average cloud. It's got green dots on the weekly, on the trading alpha indicator. Like it's above the 20-day or 20-week moving average. Like a kind of across the board on all the indicators that I look at. I'm looking at Uniswap going, this is a, this is a breakout.

• 22:19Speaker 01

  This is a good, good-looking setup. Now, the only reason that I maybe have a little bit of pause with it,

• 22:28Speaker 01

  is if I look at it like, well, let me, let me go back. Or here, let me, if I look at it through just like horizontal levels, it's got a little bit of work to do.

• 22:46Speaker 01

  Kind of here. So it had set a low here. If we, if we look here, we can see like there's, there's a bunch of touches down around this level. Like there's a touch here, there's a touch here, there was a big consolidation here. And then even like another sort of consolidation range kind of at the bottom of these wicks, you could argue. And so this has been like a big kind of support resistance cloud for, for quite a while. In fact, I'm just gonna draw like a box and show you what I mean by that.

• 23:18Speaker 01

  So yeah, so we've got this, we've got this range here.

• 23:23Speaker 01

  And big cluster here, cluster here. And then you can see it came up, butted up against the bottom side of it here, butted up against the bottom side of it here. And then really, as it came out of these, these lows, it's actually run up against resistance again. Like it wicked up to the top of this level, perfectly right on the line, the same line that it came down and touched here. Let me turn my highlighter on so I can show you. Like, so I'm talking about this, oops, this level here. And then it came up, if you can't see the wick, it touched right off here, and then got rejected, and has kind of been rejected and is, is sitting on a reversal signal here. So it's at resistance, basically. Even off the back of that big rally that it's been having out of the breakout, out of the, you know, coming back up above the, the 200-day moving averages and things like that. It's hit a resistance level.

• 24:08Speaker 01

  So it needs to show that it can break through this resistance level at about four, what is it, $4.15, give or take. If it can like meaningfully close above that, you know, this week or next week, and show that it can continue this rally, then I would say like, that's a clean break. That's a, that's a, that's a continuation through resistance and into the next phase of, of this run. So it's at key horizontal levels, but I like what I'm seeing just in terms of the strength that it showed, and just the momentum that it's had. It's kind of broken out of a, of a volatility squeeze as well that it's had too. So, uh, yeah, I like, I like what Uniswap's doing. I think it looks good.

• 24:51Speaker 01

  So I wanted to kind of pause on that one too and show you that it's, there's, there's a little bit going on there and it's caught my eye. And then finally, Zcash is the other one that sort of refuses to, refuses to die a little bit. Like it's had some FUD, it's had, you know, it's had a pretty big correction off the back of this. Like it absorbed the consolidation off of this initial, you know, this initial rally that it had. It kind of came back down. That's probably, I wonder if I look, do like a FIB retracement. I wonder what that was. Right out of 786, perfect bounce off of that. Not surprising. And then, you know, came back, set like a double high. Then it had the, the FUD with the, the, you know, the, not hack, but the potential of a hack kind of thing.

• 25:37Speaker 01

  And then, yeah, it's sort of recovered from that and it's, it's, it's coming right along. So like I said, it refuses to die. It's showing relative strength. It's, you know, even all of these, these moving averages are in an uptrend right now as we speak. So I don't know, man. It's, it's, it's sticking in there. It's hanging in there. It's got good marketing, I'll say that for sure. So.

• 25:59Speaker 00

  There's another coin that refused to die, that kept dipping and just bouncing off of it. And that was last cycle, Solana. So I can't help but think Zcash is, has some plot armor.

• 26:15Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah, yes.

• 26:19Speaker 00

  Okay, another one that I saw amongst the 18 that were doing well out of the 100, Say. Which kind of surprised me a little bit. I saw that as well as one of the alts that, that were amongst that 18 out of 100. But the chart does not look like it.

• 26:39Speaker 01

  No, that's curious. Let me go back to that real quick.

• 26:41Speaker 00

  I think it was, I'm pretty sure I saw Say on that list.

• 26:46Speaker 01

  So we got?

• 26:47Speaker 00

  Oh, no, never mind. That's not Say.

• 26:50Speaker 01

  Oh, okay.

• 26:53Speaker 00

  The symbol looks very much like Say. It's right in between Uniswap and Wild. What was that one?

• 27:00Speaker 01

  JST?

• 27:02Speaker 00

  Well.

• 27:02Speaker 01

  JST?

• 27:03Speaker 00

  Why don't we look at that one then?

• 27:04Speaker 01

  Let's see what JST actually is.

• 27:10Speaker 00

  Yeah, the little icon from this distance looked like Say's.

• 27:17Speaker 01

  Oh, this is that, is that that Justin Sun token that runs? I think this is a Justin Sun thing. Which sort of looking, looking at this price action makes sense, sort of tracks, I guess.

• 27:31Speaker 01

  In that it's just a little bit like too good, you know? I don't know.

• 27:35Speaker 00

  Yeah, I'm not buying this.

• 27:41Speaker 01

  That's funny.

• 27:42Speaker 00

  No, not at all. Okay, quite, another question came from the RV website from Eliana. Can you look at AAOI for an entry, please?

• 27:55Speaker 01

  Yeah, that's been one that definitely has been popping up lately. Let's see.

• 28:12Speaker 01

  Well, hold on. Let me kind of, let me pivot out of this and, and turn on some different ones real quick.

• 28:30Speaker 01

  So yeah, huge bounce out of the lows, like, like a lot. Particularly a lot of the optical segments, the optical and interconnect segment, has bounced mega out of the lows. In fact, just real, real quick, if I look at just like the sectors, the AI sectors, optical has bounced far and away the, the strongest out of, out of the lows. And AAOI has been one of the primary beneficiaries of that. So big up candle.

• 29:00Speaker 01

  Let's kind of look at it on the daily here real quick. So.

• 29:09Speaker 01

  I don't know. It's tricky with that. It's like, you don't necessarily want to chase things that have rallied this much. I mean, in the, in the course of a week, it's up, what is it up on the week? 41%? That's tough.

• 29:22Speaker 01

  But at the same time, you know, like we have to, there's a few things you have to take into account. Because one, we, we, we think we are coming out of major lows. There's a lot of ones that I'm seeing bouncing like this that were like heavily oversold and are just correcting. We don't know if AAOI was one of those ones that was sort of unduly oversold, like a position unwind from the, from the situational awareness situation, you know? Like it could have been one of those. I haven't actually looked to see if those positions are public. I suppose I don't know. But if it was sort of oversold artificially, then it would make sense that we're sort of seeing this bounce here.

• 30:03Speaker 01

  But kind of what you can do, it, it's tricky with this. Because it's, you essentially risk people taking profits, like short-term traders taking profits in situations like this. And so there's, there's always the risk of buying and having it correct back down. But.

• 30:22Speaker 01

  I don't know, like, there's a lot of things that look pretty healthy here, too. Like, a solid bullish divergence flag here off of this bounce. It, you know, closed well and above the 200-day moving average cloud. It's now in sort of the 20-week moving average cloud. It still has a low D-Mark count. It's not, let me actually look at bull into bands. So it's at the top of the bands. I guess, really,

• 30:45Speaker 01

  if anything, you'd be looking for like a reversal back down to this 20-day moving average around, say, 109, 110, give or take, in that ballpark. And if you can get sort of a, because like what you kind of look for is, um, like, the bounce out. You know, you get the bounce out, you get, you hopefully get like a reversal and sort of a retest at the moving average to sort of confirm the bounce as support. And then you get continuation like this. And so that's sort of the pattern that you're going to be looking for. That's, that's the ideal setup if you can get it. But, um, you don't always get it. You don't always know if that's going to happen. You don't always, I mean, maybe, you know, you wake up tomorrow and it's going to be up another 10, 10 or 15%. So there's no guarantee that that's going to happen.

• 31:29Speaker 01

  There's no guarantee you're going to get the, the sort of ideal trader setup that you'd be looking for. But if you were looking for something, that would be it. Is a reversal, back down, a retest back down around the 20-day moving average at around 110, and then continuation from there. So that's kind of a safe, generally, uh, a, a good buy level, a good rule of thumb setup that, that you could follow, that I would look, I guess, as a way to phrase that.

• 31:58Speaker 00

  Okay, yeah, Ponk had some interesting comments on that. It also had a massive dump in weeks prior. And he noted, uh, not with certainty, but he did note that it may have been one of, uh, Leopold Ashenbrenner's positions as well. I have Marty checking up on that, but, I'm sorry, what'd you say?

• 32:17Speaker 01

  Well, I was gonna say, that's kind of what I was saying. I didn't know if it was duly unwound from the situational awareness, unwind, or if it was,

• 32:26Speaker 01

  or if it wasn't, I don't know, you know? But yeah, that, that would make sense. And so we're going to see a lot of things bounce out of that, um, that won't necessarily retest. They're just going to recover their, their sort of market value and potentially just keep going. So it's a little bit of a tricky situation. It's not, since there's sort of artificial means that could have potentially suppressed the price in this scenario, which we don't know, um, that's, that's something that has to be factored into this equation. You can't necessarily just base your decision solely off of TA like you might otherwise be able to in, in other scenarios, so.

• 33:04Speaker 00

  Yeah, my agent looking at it, buddy, he's taking forever right now. Okay, uh, question here. So Lance wants to know why, he wants to know, when you talked about financial conditions, left out gold, was there a reason for that? Or how are you looking at that part of it?

• 33:26Speaker 01

  I mean, I guess it just depends on, I'm just looking at specific financial conditions in terms of like, uh, money flows. We, I'm, we can absolutely dig into gold, but specifically, I'm looking at, um, macro conditions that incentivize going out the risk curve, I think is probably the best way to, to explain that. And so things like, like, uh, you know, real yields being low, um, credit spreads being tight, dollar, you know, the dollar index being low, equity volatility being low, things like that, things like that that sort of make people want to take on risk. But let's, let's look at gold.

• 34:13Speaker 01

  So, yeah, gold is starting to, it's, I'm kind of, I like the gold chart. I think we're sort of seeing a bottoming pattern come in. Let's sort of look at it in the weekly. I'm seeing a couple of things here that I like. First of all, that it really held this level almost to a T. Oops, well, that's, um, like, it, it had set this, this support level here back in November of, of last year. You know, we, we saw the big, the massive rally. It came back down. It's, it's held this level as support for several weeks now. It's had four or five weeks down below it, but then a pretty significant bounce out of it and back up above the 10-week moving average, which I think looks really good. I like the fact, too, that it never, it never came back even close to like its, its

• 34:57Speaker 01

  200-week, uh, moving averages. And so let's look at it back on the daily now. It did lose the, the 200-day moving averages, but it's working its way back up to that. So, and I think, you know, we're seeing a bit of a bottoming pattern. We have a several, a big cluster here of like D-Mark 13s, a sequential and a combo 13, several instances of bullish divergences on daily timeframes. Finally, a reversal of the moving averages, like the 10 has crossed back up over the 20, really for the first time. So this looks good. And then let's look at it on this, or here, let's actually look at it on this one, this setup.

• 35:37Speaker 01

  And sort of see what the rest of this stuff is saying. Oops. I think gold is going to be in the mix. I think that, um, oh, where is it? Here we go. So yeah, first, first weekly, well, provided it closed the week, closes the week, it'll be the first weekly close back above the, the downward mega trend. So it's on the verge of flipping the mega trend back green, which I think looks really good. And then if we look at this, it's the first week in several that the red dot has finally disappeared. So we're starting to see downward pressure waning on this. So also, that's a good sign. So yeah, kind of across the board, we're seeing decent rebounding impacts from gold,

• 36:21Speaker 01

  which I like. That's probably off the back of this dollar index tanking, you know, dropping well back down through this, like, if, is it this, like, the weekly candle probably lines up perfectly? Yeah. It's like, here's your, this was the gold weekly candle in reverse, basically, with the dollar index, uh, showing, showing red here. So I think gold looks good. I, I think if it can flip this red, um, and get a green dot going here and get back above this track line, I, I like the looks of gold. I think that gold could easily get back up to, you know, closer to that all-time high range that it's in, so.

• 36:58Speaker 00

  Interesting.

• 36:59Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 37:02Speaker 00

  Yeah, Ponk, absolutely. Just remember to sell when the masses line up to buy the stuff again. Well said, Ponk.

• 37:10Speaker 01

  I mean, I think the big, the big key is going to be getting back above the 200-day moving average cloud here. Like, that's going to be, when we know that that happens, it's pretty much, it's pretty much game on at that point. But it'll, that's a, that's a ways from where we are now. So like, you know, I don't know if you want to try and catch the knife and buy the lows or whatever, that's your, that's your thing. But I think solid confirmation of a resumption of this long uptrend will be, you know, a solid close above the, the 200-day moving average cloud here.

• 37:41Speaker 01

  Sorry, anyway.

• 37:43Speaker 00

  All right. Uh, no, no, I was just gonna ask, uh, for the next chart. Can we take a look at Canton?

• 37:50Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah, Canton is, is having a rough go right now.

• 37:53Speaker 00

  Yeah, yeah. And they were so, they were doing so well, too.

• 38:00Speaker 01

  Yeah, where is it here?

• 38:02Speaker 00

  Because Canton is like, is one that I'm very, I don't hold any Canton, but it's one that's on my watch list. I'm very intrigued by it. So I just want to always kind of check in on them.

• 38:16Speaker 01

  I can't help but think that Canton was one of those that you could say kind of needed the Clarity Act, or not needed the Clarity Act, but would have benefited heavily from the Clarity Act because it's so tied to traditional finance and, and big, big investment banks. So having that sort of meltdown over the, the past weeks isn't working in its favor, to be sure. Outside of that, uh, I don't know if there's just insider selling. I don't know if there's validators that are, that are selling to pay for their operations or, I'm not super dialed in on the inner workings of it. But, um, yeah, I, I mean, clearly, there's, there's, there's pretty serious selling pressure

• 38:57Speaker 01

  and I don't, uh, this is one that obviously I wouldn't, I wouldn't go anywhere near until we can kind of see what a market bottom looks like.

• 39:06Speaker 01

  But yeah, that's, uh, that's a pretty, pretty reversal.

• 39:09Speaker 00

  So the gut instinct or the gut feel here is essentially, it's like they're, they're...

• 39:17Speaker 00

  They kind of need clarity in a sense to to kind of keep going. Is that is that what you think? Just because of that tie in? Or is there more to it than just clarity? Because I mean, I feel like clarity could just absolutely blow the top off for them, right? Because that is what they do. But yeah, I just want to know your thoughts on that.

• 39:34Speaker 01

  I mean, potentially, that's just sort of, that's not a fully sussed out thesis necessarily. That's just something that kind of came to came to the top of my mind. So I can't dig into that without actually doing a bit more research. But it's like that, just based on the fact, you know, who who built this? Who manages it? Where it came from? It's sort of it's sort of genesis. I can't help but think that sort of clarity played an outsized influence in in this particular asset compared to most others, you know? But then also, like I said, I don't know if it's something to do with just insider sell. We have to remember too, clarity is very illiquid compared to a lot of assets. So it takes far less to move the needle. I'm sorry, clarity, Canton.

• 40:20Speaker 01

  Yeah, it takes far less to move the needle than it does with a lot of other assets. Because there's just not a lot of liquidity on on the centralized exchanges for it. And it's very fractured across several exchanges. And so any kind of regular selling is gonna is gonna, yeah, is gonna move the needle in a bigger way than it than it otherwise would. So.

• 40:44Speaker 01

  But it's pretty overextended to the downside at this point. I mean, it's it's downright ugly like it's, yeah, well outside the bands. It's like three standard deviations from the mean at this point, basically. So pretty, pretty ugly. I don't know, we'll see what it does when it hits. It's at a D mark eight right now. We'll see what it does when it gets to the nine.

• 41:04Speaker 01

  But when it hit this nine in this 13 kind of back, back earlier, right around here, it didn't really seem to do much for it. It it basically just kind of bounced back up to the 10 day moving average and rolled right back over again. So pretty, pretty solid selling pressure, I would say.

• 41:25Speaker 01

  So yeah, definitely not one you want to you want to dip your toes in at the moment.

• 41:32Speaker 00

  So out of all of the assets that we that we talked about today, which ones do you? I mean, I know we just charted them, but just to kind of like, if you had to pick like two, not necessarily to buy, but like two that you feel good about for the next, I don't know, let's just call it till the end of the month. Obviously, we don't have that foresight, but if you had to pick two like right now that you feel good about holding till the end of the month, which ones like would they be?

• 42:00Speaker 01

  Well, hyper liquid has me curious because it's, you know, it too bounced off of a completed nine and a 13 off of the 200 day moving average. If it can close above this 20 day moving average, which it is above right now and kind of keep going. I think hyper liquid is has is showing that it's kind of coming back to life a bit here. So it's it's ticking a lot of the boxes that it needs to tick to show that the trend is reversing. And it's continuing to move in the right direction. So I like hyper liquid as one. Uniswap is another one that I touched on, like I said, that now granted, where is it?

• 42:40Speaker 01

  Oh, here it is. We want to see it break out above that resistance level that it's in it's in this cloud right now. It's kind of showing some strength on the day. It's up 8% on the day, which is good. In fact, very good. In fact, it bounced, it's up 8% off of bouncing off of that 20 day moving average cloud, which I really like. So solid bounce back up into the resistance zone. If it can break out and set, you know, close the day above, say, 450, 455. Then I would say Uniswap is the market is showing that Uniswap is continuing its momentum. There's continuation there, which which I like. So that's another solid looking setup, I would say.

• 43:23Speaker 01

  Let's revisit Ondo real quick. I mean, Ondo looks good, but maybe not quite. Another one that kind of is slowly working its way towards a decent looking level is Athena again. Now, it's it's still ugly overall. I mean, it's well in the in the throes of the of the of the bear market like everything else. But it's starting to kind of show some some strength. It's starting to show some higher highs, some higher lows. It's it's bounced off of 13s pretty strongly twice in a row now. So it's it's kind of in there. It's also got DeFi tie-ins too. It's a it's a unique setup, what it is. But yeah, I don't know, it's it's kind of there or thereabouts, something that I would keep an eye on.

• 44:07Speaker 01

  So yeah, those are those are kind of a handful that come to mind off the top of my head. Let's look at near again and see what it looks like on the daily.

• 44:14Speaker 01

  It's, you know, a big nine 13 cluster down here also that it did bounce off of. So that's good. But it's still not a not a ton of strength, honestly. So yeah, I'm gonna go with those handful.

• 44:28Speaker 00

  Can we look at pump one more time too?

• 44:30Speaker 01

  Yeah, let's look at pump too.

• 44:32Speaker 00

  I did like that chart.

• 44:34Speaker 01

  Yeah, yeah. So I mean, obviously on the daily, now pump's actually a little bit almost overextended on the daily. Like it's it's it's got a D mark 12 and a 13 on the combo in the sequential. On the setup, it's only at a five.

• 44:50Speaker 01

  But it's it's definitely in overextended territory. It's it's closed outside of the Bollinger bands twice in a row now here on the daily timeframe. So it's, yeah, it's a little overextended, a little overbought, probably could be due to come back to earth a little bit and and reset a little bit. So you'd be buying at at sort of local highs potentially here. So I would stay away from that.

• 45:12Speaker 00

  I mean, look at the pattern, look at the history on this chart. Every time it has like a nice green candle up, it's going to dip again. It just seems like you can just play that if you if you're interested in pipe pump.

• 45:22Speaker 01

  Yeah, exactly.

• 45:24Speaker 00

  They have the burns too, right? So I think.

• 45:28Speaker 01

  So that's that's exactly what you're saying. So that's the highlight there. That's the pattern. So we're sort of due for a correction. And it has shown a tendency to reverse like here, let me highlight this too. So here was a D mark nine, perfect at the reversal. Here was a D mark nine, again, perfect at the reversal. We had, we had it sort of confirmed here, actually, the the nine. So it's it's due for a correction, basically, any any day now, basically. So, yeah.

• 45:56Speaker 00

  I feel like what is what is pump on the market on the overall market cap? Hold on, let me, let me see if I can pull that up really quickly.

• 46:08Speaker 01

  Here, can I, does it show market cap? Oh, nine, it's pushing up. I wish it would show the rankings here, but yeah, it's upwards around a billion. So.

• 46:17Speaker 00

  Or I mean, I just, yeah, I see, I have it at number 68 on the market.

• 46:21Speaker 01

  68, okay.

• 46:21Speaker 00

  I'm actually, I'm interested in that because I feel like just looking at the way this chart works. I feel like you slap on a treatise indicator on something like this or the trend chameleon, and you can just ride those waves. I'm gonna look into.

• 46:36Speaker 01

  We're here, let's, let's look at it with the trend chameleon. I've got it right here.

• 46:45Speaker 00

  Yeah, because trend chameleon does what? The top 100 assets, so pump should be in line with that.

• 46:55Speaker 01

  I mean, yeah, it's showing, it's showing strong bull by on the daily. Let's look at it on the weekly and see what it says too. It's it's neutral on the weekly. So it's, but even that's good. I mean, it's, it's been neutral for a bit. It's it's coming out of this long, long, you know, bear market trend. It's definitely showing strength on the weekly and on the verge of of flipping to a decent, you know, bull market. But we can see on the daily, it's it's well on its way. That's, but again, these could be false alarms. We had the similar thing here and it rolled over again. Kind of a similar thing here, though not arguably not as strong, but it also rolled over. So, yeah. Ultimately, it needs to flip on the weekly, but I like what I'm seeing there.

• 47:42Speaker 00

  All right, guys, thank you for tuning in to trading the markets. We will be back on Monday for the world, according to AI, talk about some AI stuff. It came from, that question came from Eliana on the platform, Mr. Beef, A A O I. So we're back on Monday. We weren't here this Monday, so we didn't get to talk about like the the Leopold Ashen Brenner's fund and all of that. Right? So we're gonna talk about that on Monday, see what's going on. Obviously, at the sell, what Citadel, he had to, he had to sell everything too. I can't remember.

• 48:24Speaker 01

  Yes.

• 48:25Speaker 00

  But yeah, we're gonna folk, we're gonna talk about that and look at a whole bunch of other stuff, of course, on Monday. So until then, everyone, have a great weekend. Don't fuck this up. We'll see you then. Take care, everyone.