Why Privacy Coins Are Quietly Crushing the Market | Trading the Markets

Nico Brugge and Kris Bullock break down the latest crypto and macro setup as financial conditions begin to loosen after weeks of pressure from higher bond yields, a stronger dollar, and tightening credit spreads. Kris explains why he still believes Bitcoin is in the early stages of a new bull-market regime, where he sees major support around the $76K area, and what needs to happen for BTC to regain momentum above the recent breakout zone. They also dig into the assets showing the strongest relative strength, including Hyperliquid, NEAR, Uniswap, Zcash, PUMP, and privacy coins, while examining why Ethereum continues to struggle against Bitcoin and which crypto narratives still have real fundamental support. 👉 Have a question for Kris? Join the live show every Wednesday at 1pm ET in the RV Discord. Register here: https://discord.gg/FTQsrUhD9Z. 🏆 The Real Vision Trading is now open! The best trade ideas on the platform compete for $80,000 in cash! 📈 It's FREE - Trading League: https://realvision.com/your-future Timestamps: 00:00 - Crypto Market Outlook: Are Financial Conditions Improving? 03:34 - AI Stocks, Credit Markets & the Return of Risk Appetite 05:48 - Bitcoin Price Analysis: Is the Bull Market Still Intact? 09:05 - Bitcoin Support Levels: Is $76K the Next Buying Opportunity? 11:03 - Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle: Is the Pattern Breaking? 14:00 - Lighter (LIT) & PUMP: Which Altcoin Looks Stronger? 18:36 - Pump.fun Revenue: Is the Market Missing Something? 22:22 - Ethereum vs. Bitcoin: Why ETH Continues to Struggle 27:38 - Solana & Sui: Are Altcoins Ready for Another Rally? 30:18 - PONZ: Early Signs of a Bullish Reversal? 33:13 - Hyperliquid & Kraken: A Bullish Partnership for HYPE? 35:36 - NEAR Protocol: AI, Privacy & Token Valuation 39:15 - Uniswap (UNI): Can DeFi Momentum Continue? 41:03 - Circle, USDC & Galaxy Digital: Crypto Stocks to Watch 45:16 - Zcash vs. Monero: Why Privacy Coins Are Outperforming 51:11 - Wormhole, Venice AI & BAT: Altcoins Showing Potential 54:09 - Bittensor (TAO): What Will Trigger the Next Breakout? 56:55 - Bitcoin's Key Levels & What to Watch Next Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

• 0:06Speaker 00

  Welcome back to Trading the Markets. I am Eko Bruga, not Bijan Malecki, filling in today.

• 0:14Speaker 00

  Chris, how are you doing today, man? Second time I'm seeing you.

• 0:18Speaker 01

  I know, right?

• 0:19Speaker 00

  Lovely. I love that I get a double dose of Chris in my life today. We were also joking before the show that whenever I seem to host, the markets are trading sideways. So if you see me on the scheduled, you know, just know that that might be the case. Anywho, Chris, where do we want to start out today?

• 0:36Speaker 01

  So yeah, I want to kind of set the stage by talking about financial conditions because it applies to everything and it's really what's driving what's going on. So it makes sense to kind of give a brief overview of what we're dealing with and how it pertains to crypto, macro, stocks, all of it. So let's start with this. This financial conditions indicator I made a while back, obviously, I think I've talked about it recently. It flipped red and quite mightily so several weeks ago, about six weeks ago now. These are weekly candles. After a period through August, you know, into September, where we had a really nice neutral area, and that's when we got the biggest gains. Like if I actually move this over, here's the same thing, but with Bitcoin.

• 1:21Speaker 01

  So we got the big rally in Bitcoin right in the middle of this neutral area. And then we even got the kind of the September rally towards the tail end of this before things started getting tighter. And as this, as this, you know, tightened up, everything just kind of slowed down. Suddenly, we had three weeks in a row of downward price action. And what this, what this indicator is, is basically just kind of an amalgamation of all of the stuff that sort of dictates, are we in a risk on or a risk off environment? Where's the money flowing? How easily is the money flowing? How expensive is the money to be flowing? Things like that. So

• 1:57Speaker 01

  it encompasses things like real yields, credit spreads, the dollar index and equity volatility, basically, are the main core components, sort of all equally weighted within this score. So if we look at those things individually, we can see that once things started to tighten up, the dollar went on a big tear, kind of right at the same time. So that's part of it right there. We knew things got restrictive because the dollar went up. We also saw the VIX kind of come up lately, although it wasn't initially. And we saw bond yields really start running up, like, let me highlight these. So these are, these bottom three charts are the two-year, the 10-year, and the 30-year, basically. And, you know, we saw them just kind of go on a big, on a big rally right there. So

• 2:42Speaker 01

  those things on their own are going to flip this red. And then at the same time, credit spreads actually started, you know, tightening up too. Initially, I wasn't too bothered by it because it was still really, really historically low, but it sort of kept on going. And it got to the point almost where it set a new higher high from its high back in March. And still, I'm not worried about this. This isn't like historically high. Like if you zoom out, it's still very, very, very low, as you can see. It's not really anything to worry about. It's more of just kind of a a caution flag. You know, I'm not really going to start worrying about it until we get up into this, this four level and certainly higher, then it's a problem. But you can see that that doesn't happen very often, and it hasn't happened in a while. And even when it does, it's generally just a spike.

• 3:27Speaker 01

  When bad things are happening, I think this was around the, I don't remember the tariffs or the first, no, I think it was the tariff, the tariff meltdown, whatever, back in April of last year is what this last big spike above four was. So anyway, things have started to loosen a little bit. So in the last three weeks, it kind of peaked out back October 12th, the week of October 12th. We've gotten three successive lower weeks since then. So it started to gradually loosen three weeks in a row. You can see credit spreads have kind of started to roll over a little bit. The dollar did roll over for a couple of weeks, but it's bounced back. Bond yields have rolled over three weeks in a row, although they're kind of green on the month,

• 4:11Speaker 01

  or the week rather, at the moment, but they're, you know, three to four consecutive weeks of downtrend. And so the, the kind of the makeup of the financial conditions has shifted a little bit throughout the course of this, this tightening phase. I mean, initially, it was bonds and the dollar, then those have tapered off, and now it's credit spreads that we're freaking out. And if you've kind of been following the news recently, you saw there was a bit of a credit crisis in the AI stock space that caused a pretty big hedge fund unwind, which caused, well, if we go and look, we can see the AI sectors really sold off hard, like all of them really just kind of sold off hard over the last two or three weeks. And it was largely because of a hedge fund unwind due to

• 4:54Speaker 01

  not cracks in the credit market, that's maybe too strong of a way to say it, but just cautionary signals, you know, that we were getting. But we got some, we got some things that have kind of counteracted that a bit. The IPO announcement from Anthropic was, was a little bit positive in terms of sort of how much money's coming in. Meta issuing new stock as opposed to taking on new debt was, I think, a positive thing because taking on debt is, is, is what's causing part of this. And so issuing stock is sort of seen as a better approach. That's been helpful. And just, you know, there's been a few other headlines that have kind of rebounded this. So we've seen the AI sector bounce. We've seen generally

• 5:34Speaker 01

  the equity sectors, oops, the equity sectors bounce, like, you know, after two negative weeks, the S and P is back up this week. The NASDAQ is back up this week. And we're still just kind of waiting for that to trickle down to crypto. I think the big sell-off in AI stocks and the cracks and the tightness of the financial conditions, the general risk off posture, you know, impacted crypto too. And so here's, here's, here's where we are with Bitcoin now at this point. So this is looking at Bitcoin on the monthly timeframe. I figured I'd kind of check in on the monthly because we are right at the end of the month. There, thereabouts, we had three nice months in a row. You know, we had the bottom month in July. We had the big August month.

• 6:15Speaker 01

  September was still green, but less so. And then now we're looking at a red October currently. Notice that we did bounce perfectly off this 20-week moving average. So like coming out of this, this bear market, starting the new rally, it's not uncommon to see, you know, I mean, three solid months in a row, which is great. It's awesome to get three months in a row. You don't often get too much more than that before you tend to get a little bit of a pause in, in, in a market, you know? And so the fact that it kind of bounced perfectly, it waked up, I don't know if you can see these, but there's two wicks that perfectly touch this, this 20-week moving average. And so not, not uncommon to see at all.

• 6:57Speaker 01

  I did mark this level down here at 76.3, which is, let me highlight this. So this, this previous monthly candle body high, which I like to use candle bodies often as support resistance levels. And so the recent candle body high was, you know, back here around 76.3. We did break out above that level. And so now we've, we've basically flipped that level to support. And that's kind of what I'm looking for. If we do, if we do continue to get a bit of a retest, a rollover, a bit of a correction, whatever you want to call it, I'm looking at that as kind of the big, the big support level, the big monthly,

• 7:36Speaker 01

  monthly support level that is a likely landing point. Notice that we're still well above the 10-week moving average though, which I think is really strong. So I, I still, despite looking at this and seeing, you know, a red month this month, and looking at this level as the support level, I'm still generally bullish because of the way the equity markets are responding because of the fact that financial conditions are loosening a bit. We're starting to see those trends reverse. We're starting to see potential bottom, bottomy looking patterns on like the daily and weekly timeframes, which I'll get into. And so, yeah, I generally, I'm still biased to the upside. I still am of the belief that the, that the bottom is in and that we're in a new bull market regime. It's just that

• 8:17Speaker 01

  it's early and we're going to see chop, you know, like even if you go back to the beginning of the last bull market, kind of the same thing. We had three decent months, four actually, and then we had quite a bit of chop for a bit, you know, and you can see, we also sort of butted up against that 20-week moving, or 20-month rather, moving average and even kind of rolled over again. I mean, there was a lot of chop really in this initial first kind of quarter, if you will, of the last, of the last bull market. So you know, we're early still, and that's to be expected. And there's going to be chop. I still think that Bitcoin's going to be higher in a year. But, you know, I think it's important to not get too caught up in the daily noise and be stressing out over every little move and just know that it's early, it's going to be choppy, and that's, that's kind of the way it goes.

• 9:03Speaker 00

  Before we, oh, I was going to say real quick, Chris, Loopy wanted to know, while we're on BTC, are we expecting another opportunity to buy BTC again this year? Or are we in that right now, do you think?

• 9:16Speaker 01

  We might be in that right now. I certainly the odds are in our favor that, you know, we might get, we might get a little bit lower. Like I said, I'm going to be looking at the 70, whatever, 76.3, call it 75, whatever, in that general ballpark as a potential support zone. It's, it's going to, it's kind of right up on the, there's a couple other moving averages that sort of land right around there too, that we can get to on the weekly timeframe. Well, actually, let's just kind of go to the weekly timeframe real quick. So yeah, down here, the 50-week moving average is here. The 21-week EMA is right around that same level. And so, you know, it, and just too, there's, there's a lot of like, this also was a support level back earlier in, in August, rather, it came back down and bounced off of it.

• 10:01Speaker 01

  Maybe it comes back down and double bottoms again off of it. So again, I think that level is, is holds up pretty strong. But overall, I like the fact that, you know, we're still seeing a bullish RSI pattern. It's not diverging from the, from the chart itself. It's still showing solid momentum. So yeah, I think it's just, I think it's just chop. I can't tell you exactly where it's going to go. Obviously, nobody can. But I do look at that 76 level as kind of a good general support area.

• 10:30Speaker 01

  A couple other quick things I'll get into before we move on to other stuff. Let's look, let's look at a couple different sort of cycles, things.

• 10:39Speaker 01

  Monthly BTC, we're still in the process of, we haven't flipped the, the monthly mega trend red yet, or green red, sorry, green. I don't think we're going to at the close of this month because it was a red month and you really need like a solid breakout above it to flip that. So we're still according to the mega trend, kind of in this, this bearish structure. There's not enough strength, breakout strength yet to. To flip it bullish, but let's look, is this one? I wanted, this was just interesting. I'm not making any claims here. It was just, think of it more like an interesting observation that I noted. So if we look at the past, you know, two or three Bitcoin sort of four-year cycles, it's interesting. I'm not going to include these two first years or

• 11:23Speaker 01

  three first years because it was really wonky back then, but starting around 2012 is when the cycle structure that we know of today sort of came into effect. And so we would get this pattern, you know, where we'd have, say, three years up and then a year-long bear market. And then we have three years up and a year-long bear market, and then three years up and a year-long bear market. But if you notice, it's kind of, it kind of came in under the radar a little bit. Nobody really observed or pointed out that 2025 was actually a red year. And if you go back and look on like the, the weekly timeframe, hold on, I've got it on a different, like, it's partly because we, you know, we peaked earlier in the year than normally we have in the

• 12:04Speaker 01

  past. Like, normally it was in November or December, but we actually peaked in August of that, of last year, and then had a pretty solid couple of down months right out of the gate. So by the time the year actually closed out in December, we were net negative on the year. So if you go back and look, we're actually net negative 2025, and so far this year, we're net negative as well. So Bitcoin's never done this in its history. It's never had two red years in a row. And right now, we're, we're down about, give or take eight, eight percent, 8.1% right now on the year. So we've got two months now, a little over two months to flip this in the negative and not break this pattern. But interesting, we've already kind of broken the four-year cycle

• 12:48Speaker 01

  pattern, which everybody was like, we're still in a four-year cycle, and arguably we are. But like, the fact that last year was a red year already sort of broke that pattern that we've established, you know, for the last, whatever, 10-plus years. And now we're potentially going to end up with a second negative year. So hopefully this doesn't mean, uh, this is kind of the, the peak, the highest Bitcoin we'll ever get. We don't want a scenario, this is, this is more just in jest, this is kind of a tongue-in-cheek thing, but I drew this, I drew this curve where...

• 13:22Speaker 00

  I think we all know a couple people who are, you know, truly believe this and are just biding their time.

• 13:29Speaker 01

  Right, right. So here, Bitcoin peaked, you know, whatever, in 2025, and it's just going to roll back over. And by 2040, it'll be back to zero. So no, I'm kidding, of course.

• 13:39Speaker 00

  A copy of this.

• 13:43Speaker 01

  Yeah, I can send you a copy of it. But anyway, yeah. So, all right, getting back to where we were. Um, yeah, that's kind of the, that's kind of where we're at with Bitcoin. We can dig into a bunch of other charts. We can look at ETH. There's some, there's some stuff to talk about there. I know we've got some stuff in the comments, so.

• 14:02Speaker 00

  Start with one of the commenters. Aiden wanted to know if we could take a look at Lit and Pump. So let's start with Lit.

• 14:09Speaker 01

  Definitely, yes. So, oh, wow, my, boy, TradingView must have updated. They're changing the interface around here. So let's see. Lit, uh, hold on, crypto.

• 14:24Speaker 01

  Why do they got to do this? Now it's all stupid. Hold on. What are we looking at?

• 14:30Speaker 01

  Uh, well, I, I've got, do I have Lit down?

• 14:33Speaker 00

  Just to keep it simple right now, since TradingView decided to pull a fast one on us.

• 14:39Speaker 01

  Well, I mean, it's, it's going to be the same no matter what I look at, but let's see. Hold on. Let's just go with this. I'm just trying to.

• 14:48Speaker 01

  Lit USD, lighter, lighter. All right. Yeah, so, I mean, lighter's definitely had a bit of a rollover for sure. Let's kind of zoom in a little bit. Um, it's back to, it's getting back to its 200-day moving average cloud. It is showing a little bit of a bullish divergence. Um, momentum is higher on this subsequent, you know, double bottom than it was on this first double, on this first touch of the low. So that's kind of a positive sign, but I don't like the fact that these bigger moving averages have started to roll over, like this 50-day moving averages started to roll over. Uh, let's take a look at it here. This is kind of my, my general framework. Um,

• 15:28Speaker 01

  where was that again? Here we go. Lit. So, yeah, Lit's definitely in like a, I would not be in Lit based on this. So like, this red weekly mega trend would have caused me to exit back here. The fact that it lost its green dots here would have been a problem. The fact that it's, you know, lost its 10-day or 10-week, rather, moving average and is threatening to lose its 20-week moving average as well, is a definitely, definitely a sign of caution. So technically, this chart doesn't look good to me. Um, and it's got a, it's like, it's got a bounce here, or it's definitely pull the plug, because it's at that double bottom range again. Like, if it loses this low, let me go back to this chart here. If it loses this low that it's set back here, which is at,

• 16:14Speaker 01

  um, oops.

• 16:17Speaker 01

  So 282 is your kind of line in the sand. If you're still holding it and it closes, it loses this level, certainly on a weekly timeframe, if not a daily timeframe, then I would say, you know, it's, it's time to get out. But already, it's, it's kind of been time to get out. So this is your last line of defense here at 282. Um, moving on to Pump, then let's see what we got here. I've got Pump in the watch list.

• 16:46Speaker 01

  Pump's not great either, but a little bit better. It's still generally like, actually, I should be staying on this timeframe. Um.

• 16:58Speaker 01

  Oh, too many watch lists here.

• 17:01Speaker 01

  Here we go. Um.

• 17:06Speaker 01

  Going to have to start typing these.

• 17:09Speaker 00

  Yeah, I don't know how you deal with a watch list that large. It's, I mean, I know why you do, but like, I don't know how you do it. Um, I constantly yell at Art or one of our producers every time he screen shares because he has like, I don't know, two dozen tabs open at all times. And if I have more than like eight tabs open in a browser, I, my OCD starts kicking in.

• 17:37Speaker 01

  It would help if I typed it right. Um, okay. So, yeah, I mean, Pump also, it hasn't actually flipped it red, but it's, it's trading below it. So it's kind of a cautionary signal. Also, it's lost its dots, but it is holding up. It's better, you know, it's well above its 20-week moving average. It hasn't set a lower low since the initial low back here, uh, two weeks ago, two to three weeks ago. So Pump is, Pump had a sell-off, but it is generally setting a series of higher highs and higher lows, and it's holding them. It's volatile, it's swinging widely, but it's still in a, in a general bullish structural regime. It's just very, very high beta, very high, high volatility, you know, highs, big ups, big downs, big ups, big downs, but still a series

• 18:22Speaker 01

  of higher highs and higher lows. So, um, that's, that's Pump. Which is funny to me because as much money as it makes, I don't, I don't understand the volatility necessarily, but, um, that's crypto for you, you know?

• 18:36Speaker 00

  Yeah, I also think that, I mean, there might just be a narrative that that type of

• 18:41Speaker 00

  part of crypto is maybe over. You know, from a, you know me, I love my narratives, is like, maybe we have washed out the degenerates to a certain degree, and they have truly moved on to proper gambling, like FanDuel and Polymarket.

• 18:56Speaker 01

  So the one, the one thing that I keep coming back to, you're, you're right. You're absolutely right. Like, the obvious question is, who's trading memes? Who's, who's generating, who's doing this and why? You know, like, what, what, that doesn't even make any sense. Like, where is the, but if you go over here, pump.fun is, they made $67 million in the last 30 days. Like, they're averaging $13 million a week in, in revenue. Like, they're, they're third behind just the two giant stablecoin issuers in all of crypto, ahead of Hyperliquid, ahead of Tron, you know, ahead of Polymarket. Like, that's what I keep coming back to.

• 19:37Speaker 00

  I mean, yeah. I mean, when you put it that way, absolutely. It's just... I don't know. I guess my X feed has started to filter them out. I don't know. Um, that's incredible.

• 19:49Speaker 01

  Not only that, they they tick the box, they the key boxes, they buy back and burn, they accrue value back to the token holders. The token holders are directly benefiting from all of this money that they're making. And so that's why I'm like, what's going on here? Do people not get that? Like, what? You know?

• 20:07Speaker 00

  There must be something else behind this all that, you know, one day we'll we'll discover or will be revealed. I'm not saying anything like illicit, perhaps. I'm just, it is really interesting just to me from a optics versus reality standpoint. But, you know, it goes to show that like we each have our subjective realities and that, you know, we need to break out of those to become better traders because, you know, if I just looked at my X feed, I'd be like, you know, Pump is dead.

• 20:36Speaker 01

  It's there. There is a major disconnect between sort of what happens on the pump.fun platform versus the the the successful business that is operating underneath it.

• 20:48Speaker 00

  Yeah, no, it really is. Because like the last time Pump, I really was thinking of Pump was like the height of the grifting meme coins, just, you know, just rug pulling immediately, basically. So interesting. Wow. I gotta take a closer look at that. And I'm gonna talk to Arch and Brian, see if we can maybe get someone from Pump to talk to us, because it's a really interesting story.

• 21:12Speaker 01

  It really is. And there's there's also multiple things going on on Pump. I mean, yeah, there's the meme, the meme sort of creation thing, but there's also content creators on there that are actually generating real content that's, in some cases, valuable content. And they're creating meme tokens to sort of support them as content creators, and they're making a lot of money, too. And that's where-

• 21:33Speaker 00

  I forgot that there was that sort of Twitch streaming style component to Pump and that people, yeah, wow, wow, this has been a big blind spot for me. I gotta dig back into Pump more. That's really interesting.

• 21:47Speaker 01

  Yeah, so there's people making money on Pump and then Pump itself is making a ton of money.

• 21:52Speaker 00

  Money, yeah, off of everyone.

• 21:54Speaker 01

  Everybody talks about Hyperliquid as sort of the king of of, you know, fees and crypto, and Pump on on any given week or month is outpacing them. So-

• 22:05Speaker 00

  Because that's exactly what I was gonna say next is, you know, Hyperliquid seems to have taken all of Pump's momentum. But it seems that's just an optics, that's not an actual, wow, interesting. Anything else on Pump, or should we maybe move on to some of the classic L1s?

• 22:22Speaker 01

  No, yeah, that's that's everything for me. Um, let's take, let's move on to ETH, because ETH is actually not faring as well. Um, like, if you go, like, actually, let's really, well, I'll do a couple of things here. First of all, we're looking at kind of the initial dip down for Bitcoin, which happened back on October 15th. It's it's sort of, it's wicked below that, but it's held this initial low. And so if we look at ETH through that same lens, here's October 15th. I mean, well, it's a little worse off. It's also a little bit closer to its its sort of big moving average clouds, the 20-week and the 200-day. It's moment, it's losing a lot of RSI momentum,

• 23:04Speaker 01

  but the big kicker for me that I keep coming back to is looking at ETH BTC. Um, and so that's, yeah, I mean, it's already, it's so it's lost its big moving averages. And now the 200-day moving average cloud is actually starting to roll back over, back to the downside. And if you look at this on the weekly timeframe, um, this is kind of an off-sided chart. This won't be new to some of you. But, um, I worry about this long downtrend that ETH Bitcoin has been in all the way back since September of 2022. And we've tried a couple of times mightily to sort of break that downtrend and have really just kind of petered out. Like, it's it's come up, it actually, you

• 23:48Speaker 01

  know, here, it certainly broke it. I mean, well, granted, it was coming off of a major, major, like, deviation to the downside. So it had to sort of retake that that kind of, the mean, if you will. And and so it did that, but it basically then just resumed the larger downtrend. And we kind of had a bit of a breakout here. It technically did break out. It got above its 200-day against Bitcoin, but now it's rolled back over and lost it again. And so we're now three, gonna be three consecutive weeks in a row of closing back below this 20-week moving average. And again, I just fear that we're going to see a resumption of this larger dominant, very long, you know, um, very long downtrend at this point. This is so, so yeah.

• 24:33Speaker 00

  22, you mean, have the answer, but is that hypothetically when FTX starts unrolling positions ahead of the collapse? Maybe not, like, obviously, in the timeline of like us, you know, on X, it was October, it was towards the end of October that people started noticing. But I'm just curious if maybe this is part of that fallout still.

• 25:00Speaker 01

  Well, possibly. I mean, it did have a big dip leading up to that. But what actually happened right on this date that I have noted was the conversion from proof of stake to, I'm sorry, for proof of work to proof of stake.

• 25:15Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 25:16Speaker 01

  Was was literally the the pivot point is when it when it changed.

• 25:21Speaker 00

  I remember, we were covering that heavily, Chris, back then. What was the, they had a name for it, like, that day?

• 25:28Speaker 01

  Uh, I know they did, and I don't remember what it was.

• 25:31Speaker 00

  It was, but yeah, it was like, it was the biggest thing in crypto for like several weeks leading up to it. That's fascinating.

• 25:38Speaker 01

  Now, it's interesting to note that the Layer 2s did come along a bit prior to this, but they didn't really start gaining momentum until a little bit further down into this initial. And then there was another, you know, EIP, basically market, I mean, not market, network upgrade, um, that sort of changed the fee structure a little bit and started, uh, favoring the L2s even more, uh, so that the L2s were able to capture more of the transaction fees. And that's when the downtrend accelerated much, much further to the downside. And it did, again, it did rebound, it did sort of reclaim the the general mean as, you know, it got way sort of probably multiple

• 26:19Speaker 01

  standard deviations sort of oversold. Um, and it did reclaim it, but there's been a couple big upgrades to the Ethereum network. And really, the big story here is value doesn't accrue to ETH directly anymore like it once did. You don't, you don't need a lot of ETH to to transact on Ethereum anymore. Um, and all of the, all the protocols, everything moved to the Layer 2s. And the Layer 2s now are benefiting, they're capturing most of the fees. ETH isn't really getting any of this. Um, gone are the days where we would have these frenzied NFT minting scenarios where people would spend three Ethereum to mint an NFT, you know, on gas. I mean, and so

• 27:00Speaker 01

  like, that that whole era of Ethereum is is gone and will never be back. And so there's no reason to buy Ethereum, there's no reason to hold Ethereum, even the staking yields on Ethereum are kind of pretty low compared to-

• 27:13Speaker 00

  They're terrible now.

• 27:14Speaker 01

  USDC right now. So, um, I, again, I fear that unless something changes, this larger, uh, this larger downtrend is going to continue. And so-

• 27:27Speaker 00

  That is really, wow.

• 27:30Speaker 00

  That's quite a stark way to put it. Yeah.

• 27:32Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 27:35Speaker 00

  Well, oh, go ahead, please.

• 27:37Speaker 01

  No, no, that was it. Sorry.

• 27:39Speaker 00

  No, no, I was gonna say, so maybe let's take a look at, um, the next L1 on the list, Solana, and how it's faring.

• 27:48Speaker 01

  So, um, let me go back to this. Oops, no, this one. Um,

• 27:58Speaker 01

  Solana's been weak of late. Solana hasn't held up as well, hasn't held, like Bitcoin actually has held up better than most, not all, but most. Um, and so Solana has looked weak, Ethereum has looked weak, a lot of the other Layer 1s, which we can talk about. But, um, yeah, it's just, it's not like it's rolled over, it's not like it's lost its trend. It's still above the key kind of breakout level of that initial August rally that we had. It hasn't fully come back down or lost that level yet. So it's like, it's fine. It's just, again, it's like, all of this is a higher beta to Bitcoin. And so it's gonna move up more, it's gonna move down more. And when the when the trend resumes, when when sort of Bitcoin decides to do another leg up, all of these are

• 28:41Speaker 01

  gonna rip harder, and they're gonna go up more than Bitcoin did. And they'll probably, you know, on a percentage basis, eclipse Bitcoin for a period until that, you know, it's just this big sort of oscillation, basically. And so we're seeing potentially the bottom of this oscillation. We're seeing a lot of things find, you know, at support levels, whether that's at the 10-week or the 20-week, um, or, you know, breakout levels or big moving average levels, kind of, they're all sort of sitting at these general support levels right now. And we're just sort of waiting to, waiting to see the next leg up. Solana's right there. Um, none of this is screaming, you know, oh, it's all, it's all over, sell, go home, you know, nothing like that. Um, it's just kind of choppy sideways mess. And probably the same can be said for Sui. It's, I imagine it's

• 29:26Speaker 01

  right there in this, yeah, right about the same. Like, let me go back. So it's maybe even a tick better. Sui's arguably margin, well, yes and no. It's it's right in its sort of 200-day moving average cloud, whereas Solana is a tick above it. So, but I mean, they're more or less, you know, neck and neck, I would say. They're kind of right there in the same conversation. Um, they're sitting in between its 10 and its 20-week moving average. So, yeah, they're just kind of-

• 29:58Speaker 01

  They're just doing the do, you know, chopping along, waiting for the next phase of the market to run everything up. So

• 30:03Speaker 00

  Absolutely. Solana also has Breakpoint coming up in November, which, you know, sometimes, you know, causes a rise, sometimes causes a fall. So we'll see how that goes.

• 30:13Speaker 01

  Right.

• 30:13Speaker 00

  Um, what else is on your list today, Chris? Anything in particular?

• 30:18Speaker 01

  Um, I did see Aiden wanted to, wanted to take a look at PONs and that's been an interesting one. So I've been kind of keeping an eye on that.

• 30:27Speaker 01

  Well, here we go. PONs. So PONs, uh, as, as a lot of you know, ripped for a long time, obviously here. Well, right out of the gate, basically upon launch, it just ran forever. But then it peaked out and it's been in a pretty steady, you know, gradual bleed out since then. And everybody's been wondering, when is, when is the bottom in? When are we going to see, you know, when is the time to buy PONs again, basically? Uh, or maybe the better question is, when is the market going to decide what the actual value of this token is, is a better way to look at this? Um, and so what we're looking for is certainly on the daily timeframe to start is a reversal of the daily downtrend, you know, it went sideways for a long time and then it just lost it.

• 31:10Speaker 01

  And now we're looking for a reversal on the daily timeframe and we're not too far off from that. Um, hold on, where did my?

• 31:20Speaker 01

  On my indicator. Uh, let's get a D mark in there too. Okay. So yeah, it bottomed at the daily timeframe on a, on a combo 13, uh, which was showing major, major exhaustion. Kind of interesting that it bottomed perfectly on there. Since then it's had a pretty strong rally, but we've got a couple of lines of resistance that I'm looking at here. So it did for the first time, really since it, since it kind of took off, uh, closed successfully two days now, potentially in a row above its 10 day moving average. It's kind of butted up against it as resistance up until this point. So we've got a couple of things looking good here. We've got a D mark 13 bottom signal. We've got a couple of consecutive daily closes above the 10 day moving average.

• 32:03Speaker 01

  And so now really what we're waiting for, we've also got a new setup count starting. It's on a two on the D mark setup to the upside. So we, really what we need to kind of cement this as a reversal on the daily is some closes above the 20 day. Um, and then for ultimately the 10 to cross back up over the 20 and for both of those moving averages to start pointing back up and to the right. So it's still early days. Um, you'd be kind of, uh, taking a bit, an aggressive entry is what they would call it at this point.

• 32:36Speaker 01

  I know people like to make fun of that term, but, um, it's, you know, you're, you're sort of betting that it's going to continue doing this. Yet while it still hasn't proven itself necessarily. So, um, it does look decent though. It's, it's, you know, like I said, positive steps in the right direction, but we need to see, like, I wouldn't personally touch it until we've gotten a couple of closes above the 20 and it looks like this is really going to continue. And so that's where PONs is, but it's definitely an interesting project. And, um, yeah, uh, we'll, we'll see, we'll see how it goes. It's, it's still early, but it's looking positive. So, yeah.

• 33:13Speaker 00

  Interesting. Interesting. Interesting. Why don't we take a look, just because we talked about it earlier at Hyperliquid?

• 33:19Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 33:21Speaker 00

  And then we'll get to three, uh, has one, two, three, four. He wants us to look at all great ones as well. So we'll do a run through those.

• 33:31Speaker 01

  Hyperliquid, uh, Hyperliquid generally looks pretty good. It, it, it's funny. It did start to bleed out. In fact, right at the, the, the close of the weekly candle, uh, so Sunday evening, you know, earlier, the, the beginning of the week, I guess. This technically flipped red and I was like, oh man, Hyperliquid, it's, it's starting to trigger a sell, you know?

• 33:53Speaker 01

  Um, but Monday morning it, it, it bounced a little bit. And then I think Tuesday morning came out with a more official announcement, kind of that we already knew, but that the parent company of Kraken has, has, is officially announcing that they did partner with Hyperliquid to provide backend infrastructure, DeFi infrastructure for trading DeFi perps on Kraken, on the Kraken platform, using Hyperliquid as the backend. And so we, we didn't know that already, but it was additional sort of confirmation. Uh, so that was nice. And of course, since then it's, it's seen a bounce in its price. And so I like this. I mean, it's, it's more of a gradual incline. It's just been kind of coming back all the way down to its 20 week,

• 34:35Speaker 01

  bouncing, running up. It came damn near all the way back down to it again and is bouncing again. So it, it, it's generally still good and it's been in an uptrend much, much longer than everything else. You know, it bottomed again back in January, whereas everything else bottomed in like June, you know, or something like that. So Hyperliquid kind of in a way has been the best performing asset of the year to a large degree. Uh, just from a structural standpoint, not necessarily from a percentage gain standpoint, but like, it's just been in a solid grind upwards since January and it's, it's still looking good. It's still setting higher highs and higher lows. It's held its 200 day cloud this whole time. It just kind of had a moment of weakness

• 35:16Speaker 01

  for a minute, but then it got positive news and it, it bounced again. So, um, I think Hyperliquid continues to look really good. I think it's, it, you know, there's, there's nothing in here that says sell or it's rolling over or it's losing its structure or any of that. So it's like, kind of, it, it just remains a hold for me, you know, based on its chart structure essentially.

• 35:37Speaker 00

  Awesome. Um, so, uh, we got a request to look at Near.

• 35:42Speaker 01

  Yeah. Near is another interesting one for sure. So Near had a, here was the August breakout where most of the stuff had its biggest rally. Near didn't like, Near actually was lagging behind and it had a little bit of a rally at the end of August. But then in the September rally, where most stuff had a much smaller candle, Near actually had a massive breakout. And so, um, it kind of has been doing the opposite of the rest, most of the rest of the market space. But off the back of this giant rally, it, it needed to consolidate. So it's really broken out, you know, two huge weeks in a row, and then has kind of chopped sideways ever since.

• 36:20Speaker 01

  Um, I like the fact that it's been mostly sideways and has waited for the moving averages to catch up to it. That's generally a sign of strength. Um, I know I talked about Near on the, the daily timeframe last week and I highlighted this chart pattern here about how I was really liking, of course, it had to make me look like an idiot, how I was really liking the fact that it did this big run up and then the two moving averages converged. And it was, I think it was, well, here it was Wednesday. So this was Wednesday of last week. And I was like, oh, this looks poised for a breakout. And then of course it did the exact opposite and broke down. So don't listen to me ever, basically, but it did, it did bounce on the, on the 50 day

• 36:59Speaker 01

  and it held there and it's been running back up since then. It's sort of recovering. Um, it's doing well. The thing I like, the thing I, not rather, the thing I question about Near from a general fundamental standpoint is I think it's a good project. I love what they're doing in the fact that they've got kind of their hands in a lot of different cookie jars. And they're benefiting from lots of different narratives, privacy, AI, um, uh, you know, interoperability, kind of all of this stuff. They're, they're in the Z cash world. They're in the, they're in the AI world, you know, they're, they're doing cool things. They're in the Hyperliquid world. You can now do kind of masked transactions, Hyperliquid transactions through Near. So I like everything that they're doing. They're making money with the Near intense protocol, but

• 37:45Speaker 01

  it's kind of over its skis a little bit. I would still say even at 458, it's probably overvalued relative to the amount of money that they have coming in and relative to the amount of money that they're sort of giving back to the token holders. It's like, yes, they do do buys and burn. I even actually posted an X post about near yesterday. They are doing buybacks and stuff like that, but not those, those buybacks aren't necessarily disappearing. And there still is some, um, inflationary properties to the network. There's still some, some overhang to the network. So it, it, I like, I don't know that crypto cares about that. They're going to see this. They're going to go, this is an amazing project. They're doing all this stuff. We're going to sort of,

• 38:28Speaker 01

  um, speculate and sort of buy what we think it's worth regardless, you know? And so they're going to run the price up anyway, I feel like, but I do question the actual value compared to the price at the moment. I think it needs to play a little bit of catch up. I think it probably will. But just sort of keep that in the mind in the back, you know, the back of your mind that it's not, it's not like Hyperliquid where Hyperliquid is raking in, you know, $10 million a week and, um, getting, burning 90, 99% of that, you know, basically. They're, they don't have this, Near doesn't have the same mechanics. And so

• 39:04Speaker 01

  just kind of, you know, be wary of the price action. Make sure that it's going up sort of commensurate with the amount of money that it's making and, and all of that. So anyway.

• 39:15Speaker 00

  Next up, we got Uni.

• 39:18Speaker 01

  Yeah. Um, Uni also is a, is a great one these days. Um, where is it?

• 39:25Speaker 01

  I say that and look, it's kind of rolled over a bit, but still uni had a like this trajectory on uni was massive. So like, like here was the August breakout and it just sort of kept going. And so yeah, it's it's broken down below its mega trend, but in this span, it just like it never even slowed down. It had the August breakout, didn't really consolidate. You know, three big weeks in a row, hit a little bit of a hump in the beginning of September, but then had another huge week in the September rally with everything else. And these are big candles. These are like, let me just call these percentages out. So to start, you know, 38% and then we had it 13 and then a 42%.

• 40:04Speaker 01

  A little bit of a 15% correction, but then another 42% rip again. So like uni just kind of exploded. Um, and it's also making a lot of money doing really well with its V4. Um, it's got a lot of, it's benefiting a lot from the Robinhood uh, transaction activity, which has tailed off admittedly, but um, it's, it's, there's a lot of uni is huge and it's not going anywhere. It's the biggest DeFi protocol in the space practically in terms of like swap decks anyway. And so, and it's very innovative. It's continuously reinventing itself. Um, even recently. And so I think Uniswap is going to continue to be one of the the things going forward, basically. And so, yeah, I, I like it. Um, it's just, you know, took a little bit more of a, a breakdown than

• 40:49Speaker 01

  some of the other ones, but again, it's, it's August breakout levels way down here at 443 or 450 basically. So it's still almost double that, you know, at this point, um, way ahead of most things. So uni looks great.

• 41:03Speaker 00

  Love it. Um, from one OG to another, let's take a look at Circle.

• 41:09Speaker 01

  Let's take a look at, so Circle, Circle's just been kind of flat. It's Circle's interesting to me. Like it's not doing as well. Um, as perhaps it should be, whatever that even means. Um, it's just mostly been chopping sideways. It hasn't really benefited much. Like it had a breakout from the August, you know, here was the August candle here. Um, it didn't really have any breakout in September, like a lot of actual crypto did. And it hasn't been able to break above its 200 day moving average, unlike most of crypto has, you know, at this point. So it's not really tracking with the rest of the crypto market. Also, it's, it's, it's, you know, it's very tight, very low volatility. It's got a volatility squeeze

• 41:50Speaker 01

  shading here. So I, I mean, obviously as soon as Bitcoin breaks out as, you know, or whatever, you know, it's, it's likely to, but um, I think this is in large part because we're not seeing stablecoin market cap increasing, like crypto is moving. There's a lot of activity happening. There's people buying Bitcoin. There's institutions buying Bitcoin, but actual stablecoin market cap um, has been, well, maybe this is a better way to look at it. Let's just look at like USDC market cap. Hold on. USDC market cap and that's maybe weird. So

• 42:31Speaker 01

  yeah, I mean, this is basically, this is Circle right here is, is the market cap of USDC and it, as you can see, has been flat and, and going down a little bit. Now, it's not like, I mean, it's, it's, you know, bumping between whatever 71 billion and 76 billion. It's not like it's nobody's using it or whatever, but it's just not, there's, there's not a lot of like new adoption of stablecoins basically since whatever, since it peaked back in March. And so that's why I think we're seeing Circle

• 43:02Speaker 01

  sideways, you know, essentially.

• 43:04Speaker 00

  If, if either of us had had more coffee, we could have probably come up with a nice circling the drain. I don't know, circling something, but it's Wednesday, our brains are fried and the market is sideways. Um, next up, let's take a look at Galaxy.

• 43:19Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 43:22Speaker 01

  Galaxy's been interesting too. Um, hold on.

• 43:28Speaker 01

  Or you know what? Let's go, I like this one. Keep doing that.

• 43:37Speaker 01

  So I feel like, well, whatever. Um, I feel like Galaxy should maybe be doing better than it is. Uh, partially, I get working against is the fact that it's got its hands in, in so many things that some of which have been impacted by the, the credit issues and the, the data center rollout issues in the AI space. So they're, they're kind of getting some, some resistance from that, uh, in terms of the fundamental side, but um, they're, they're in a lot of good things too. And I think that, you know, you know, I would look, go on X, I think, uh, who was Jeff Dorman, who I follow. Jeff Dorman is great on X. He posts so many, like,

• 44:18Speaker 01

  he's one of my favorites to follow. Um, and he posts so much good stuff and go, just a couple of days ago, he was posting about Galaxy Digital and, and sort of how and why he thinks it's undervalued. So, um, if you don't follow Jeff on X, he's one of the ones that like is a good sort of, you know, high signal, low noise account, like, because I know X, X has in particular been kind of a cesspool lately. And uh, his, his posts often sort of cut through a lot of that. And so

• 44:44Speaker 00

  I'll also say that when we launched Real Vision Crypto in 2020, our first interview was Ral and Michael Saylor. Our second interview was Ral and Jeff Dorman. So to put in perspective of how much, you know, we here at Real Vision trust his thoughts.

• 44:59Speaker 01

  Yeah, no, totally. I think he's great. He, you know, he definitely isn't shy of, of sharing his, his thoughts and uh, sometimes uh, it's, it can be polarizing. Sometimes it can be a little abrasive, but I think, I think dude is super sharp. I mean, for sure, for sure. So yeah.

• 45:16Speaker 00

  Absolutely. Um, already Angela wants us to take a look at Zcash if we can.

• 45:21Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 45:23Speaker 01

  Um, Zcash has been another one of this, this, you know, standout outperformers of the cycle. Um, and I think will continue to be, for whatever reason, the, the privacy narrative seems really, really sticky these days. And I think it's because, you know, it's, it's coming back to a lot of the new, certainly new laws, privacy laws that are being implemented in, in Europe and places like that, um, that are, that are driving a lot of this and um, yeah, Zcash, they just, and they have a big team behind them, big KOLs. They, they, they know how to make, they know how to make the number go up, but like, no, I, I say that, but fundamentally Zcash is, is obviously a good,

• 46:02Speaker 01

  a good product and um, has a use case and uh, it's going to continue to benefit. And so, so yeah.

• 46:11Speaker 01

  I, this is a great looking chart. I mean, it's better than most of the charts that we've looked at today, you know, it's, it's, yes, it's below its mega trend also, but two solid weekly green candles in a row. Um, you know, never really lost its trend. It's not far off of an all time high, which if I'm not, hold on. Am I wrong? No, yeah. So very, very few crypto assets can make the claim that they are, well, before I say that, let me make sure I'm looking at a chart that includes all of its price history. Um, cause I want to, I think that's important, but um,

• 46:44Speaker 01

  USD, see, just, or here, let me do this.

• 46:51Speaker 01

  Since.

• 46:57Speaker 01

  Okay. Yeah. No. So, oh wait, no, it is back.

• 47:01Speaker 01

  Well, okay. So this is interesting. Let's take a look at this real quick. So not quite at all time highs, but outside of its initial sort of launch, whatever fiasco that every little bit of crypto goes through, where they launch at some ridiculous price and then sort of establish their market value. Barring that, it's at all time highs. So, um, you know, that's, what else, what other crypto is at all time highs right now, basically, or has set all time highs? Uh, anywhere recently, hardly any. Ironically, at Monero, its direct competitor is sort of also sitting at all time highs, basically.

• 47:39Speaker 01

  Um, so yeah, that's privacy for you. Monero and Zcash sitting at all time highs. I think this narrative has some legs, you know, wouldn't you say?

• 47:50Speaker 01

  Meanwhile, Bitcoin is still like a mile away from its all time high.

• 47:56Speaker 01

  So yeah.

• 47:58Speaker 00

  Yeah. Speaking of which, um,

• 48:02Speaker 00

  who was it that did a whole thread the other day on Monero? Someone had a thread on it. Basically saying like, keep an eye out on it as like a sneaky rival to Near or something. I forget who it is.

• 48:17Speaker 01

  To Zcash?

• 48:19Speaker 00

  To, sorry, to Zcash. Yeah.

• 48:21Speaker 01

  Yeah. Well, I mean, it, it certainly, most certainly is. In fact, it's been around much longer.

• 48:26Speaker 00

  Longer, yeah.

• 48:27Speaker 01

  Um, it, it's got some unique attributes, Monero. And Monero is, is much more, um,

• 48:35Speaker 01

  broadly distributed. It's fully decentralized. It doesn't, it's, it's like Bitcoin. It does, it just sort of exists. There's no team behind it. It's just a fully decentralized, fully autonomous privacy, privacy token, you know, privacy, uh, protocol, whatever, that masks transactions. So, um, it much less concentrated in terms of its holder base than, than Zcash is. Uh, kind of it's, it's sort of downside, if you will, which I don't know that I even call it that, is that it doesn't have a big team behind it that's supporting it. It doesn't have people going on X and touting its virtues because it's just, it, like I said, it's just, it's like Bitcoin. It just is there, you know? And so, um, it, it sort of loses because of that, but in terms of its actual

• 49:21Speaker 01

  quality of what it is and what it does and, um, you know, in some ways it's better than, uh, Zcash from like a decentralization standpoint.

• 49:31Speaker 01

  So yeah, it's, it's right there. And, and again, rightfully so, right? It's, it's also at all time highs right now. So, um, it's clearly doing well. It doesn't have the big ripping gains that Zcash has had this year. Uh, like if you look, if you compare the two, Monero's down against Zcash.

• 49:51Speaker 01

  Oops. Type. Z.

• 49:56Speaker 01

  So yeah, see like ugly, ugly, Zcash is wildly outperforming it from just a price standpoint. Um, Monero's way down, you know, since, since kind of the peak back in, well, in July of 2025. So Zcash has taken the bit and ran with it, but um, yeah, kind of don't, like you said, don't discount Monero. It's, it's, it's still better than quite a, quite a lot of other things in fact.

• 50:24Speaker 01

  Problem is, it's hard to get to because of the nature of what it is. Not many exchanges list it. It's some jurisdictions, you just can't get it. You just, unless you really, really jump through a lot of hoops. It's hard to even get. And then some jurisdictions will actually, you know, that looks shady. You come across as suspect for even holding any Monero because then potentially they, they can, you know, claim that you're laundering money or hiding your activity, you know? And so it's difficult to hold these privacy tokens in some, in some places. And, and that's problematic. So that's, that's partially why you don't see them maybe doing as well as they could. Zcash again is a little bit different, but yeah.

• 51:08Speaker 01

  So anyway.

• 51:11Speaker 00

  Awesome, awesome, awesome. Um, what else should we look at before we wrap up today?

• 51:16Speaker 01

  Yeah, let's see. Let me kind of go back to this. Let me zoom back out here.

• 51:23Speaker 01

  There was a couple I wanted to check in on. Wormhole, this was an interesting one that has kind of, it blew up for a second and then it, you know, gave a lot of that back, but it sort of has stabilized. It's one of a handful. There's not a lot that's actually green on the week right now. Like we're having a kind of mostly a red day to day, mostly a red week across the board. So the, I'm, I kind of am going through a lot of these charts and looking to see which ones are green this week because that's, that's interesting to me. Um, so Wormhole is still though, it needs to kind of reestablish a fair bit here. It took a lot of technical damage here. Venice has always been another one that's interesting to me because Venice too, while not green on the week, Venice is another one that's really been in an uptrend for

• 52:07Speaker 01

  this, for the entirety of this year essentially, like Hyperliquid has and has, has outperformed most things. And, and even right now today looks better than most things. I mean, it's, it, yes, it's below its mega trend, but it's still right there. It's still got green dots here on the trading alpha, you know, green track line as well. So Venice is still holding strong and doing all the right things. And I think, you know, warrants being on, on your radar. BAT was another one that caught my attention that also is in the process of a big correction. But I think once this bottoms out, I'm going to be looking to add some of this because I think that it's got, we talked about, I'm not going to go through it all.

• 52:51Speaker 01

  I think we talked last show or the one before, but I'm just sort of waiting for the dust to settle on this one. And then once it does, I'll be looking for it. So, so far that dust hasn't settled yet, but I actually like the fact that it's red this week and is continuing to come down. I want that to happen. And so once that does, I want to see, let me actually throw like a, like a Fibonacci retrace up here and see what kind of levels we might be looking at from that standpoint. We'll start it here. We'll go all the way up to here. So we're at the, we're at the, at the five right now. So yeah, coming back down to like the 618, which would put us at right around 12 cents. I would love it if it could get back down to there.

• 53:34Speaker 01

  I think that would be a nice, good, healthy, you know, retrace. The 618 is a very common level that things kind of come back down to. If it loses that too, then I would start to be pretty wary of it overall, but that's kind of the level I'm going to be looking at is the 618 level at around 12 cents. So once it gets there, that's kind of light bulb on for me. I'll be paying attention to see if it holds that level and bounces or if it loses it. If it loses it, I think it's probably got a little bit more ways to go. But I think BAT is one that is worth, again, keeping, keeping on your shortlist for the moment because I think it could run, so.

• 54:10Speaker 00

  I got, I got one for you, Chris.

• 54:12Speaker 01

  Yeah. What was it again?

• 54:15Speaker 00

  Bit Tensor.

• 54:16Speaker 01

  Bit Tensor, yeah, let's look at Bit Tensor. So, um.

• 54:20Speaker 00

  I don't know if I told you, but I bought some when it was around 200.

• 54:25Speaker 01

  Oh, okay. Nice.

• 54:27Speaker 00

  If I finally got in, I'm listening to you talk about it for on and off for the last however many years.

• 54:35Speaker 01

  So Bit Tensor, actually I have a, a channel here drawn. Where is it? Tau. It's been in this interesting channel for, well, since 20, whatever, 2024, where it's kind of bouncing up and down, bouncing up. And then even more recently, you can look at this red horizontal channel that I've got drawn where it's been even more stuck just in this range, kind of since, you know, since the, the bear market started back in November. It's just been chopping up and down on these, these big, huge swings. And so it's still generally tracking with the rest of the market. I mean, if we go back and look, here was the, here was the August breakout.

• 55:17Speaker 01

  It tracked, consolidated, but had some nice big weeks in there. And then big, you know, decent sized September breakout too. So this is positive. I like that it's, it's doing as well as anything, I guess you could say. But it's, it's still, I need, I, I just want to see it kind of break out of this, this chop that it's been doing. I feel like it's been more choppy than most. It, it just hasn't really been able to establish like a really solid, long-term trend. It just kind of will run up for a few months and then just kind of give it all back and run up for a few months and give it all back. And, and interestingly, you know, I mean, the 200 day has largely been trending down and, and right now it's, it's, it's kind of just sideways.

• 56:02Speaker 01

  It did reverse, to be fair. It did reverse, so credit where it's due here. But it's, it's sort of rounded back over and is just a bit choppy and it's given a lot of that back, like it, whereas some of these we've seen kind of just ran up to September and went sideways. This, you don't really want to see it, you don't ever want to see something run up and then go right back down to meet its moving averages. You want to see it go sideways and have the moving averages catch up to it. And so overall, I think it, I mean, it's in the mix. It's, it's probably, it's not going anywhere. I don't think Bit Tensor is going to go to zero or anything. I'm not saying that. I'm just saying that I want to see a little bit more strength here. I want to see a little bit more of a trend.

• 56:44Speaker 01

  I'd like to see it be able to break this long-term, you know, downtrend and, and just reverse that frankly. And so that's what I'm looking at with Bit Tensor.

• 56:54Speaker 00

  Love it. Before we wrap up today, any key takeaways you want to leave the audience with on another sort of sideways week?

• 57:03Speaker 01

  Um, well, like I said, let me, let's kind of go back to the, go back to the beginning here. I want to see.

• 57:14Speaker 01

  I'd like to see Bitcoin get back above the, the weekly sort of breakout level back here at 82 and, and kind of reestablish that. It's, it's trying to bounce a little bit here, but if it doesn't, you know, we're, I'm, I'm going to be looking at that 76,000 as kind of the support level. I also want to see, you know, I'm going to be watching all the other stuff. I'm going to be watching the financial conditions to make sure that credit spreads continue to roll over, that bond yields continue to roll over, that the Dixie kind of resumes its downtrend a bit and sort of things start to loosen up and, and make money cheaper and more readily available and start flowing through the system more easily. And so that's really what I'm looking for. We're starting to see it in equities a little bit, a little bit more, but I want that to trickle into Bitcoin and everything else too.

• 57:59Speaker 01

  And so I'm kind of watching all of that stuff and, uh, you know, we'll see where it goes. But so far there's incremental steps in the right direction and hopefully that continues. So, yeah.

• 58:11Speaker 00

  Well said, I love it. I, I concur, not that anyone here is here for my opinion by any means, but thank you so much for this, Chris. Maybe one of these days when I host, it will not be moving sideways, but we'll just have green candles galore. Inshallah, here's to that. And otherwise, Chris, you'll be back next week with another guest host and really looking forward to that. And you can catch me tomorrow with Joe Bland on Charting Macro at 9:00 AM Eastern. Otherwise, Chris, thank you so much. Do you have a portfolio? No, you had yours last week, right?

• 58:50Speaker 01

  No, the crypto portfolio report is, well, I'll be writing it tomorrow, so it'll be published.

• 58:55Speaker 00

  Tomorrow, so it does come out Friday. So yeah, everybody keep an eye out for that. Otherwise, Chris, thank you so much and thanks for watching, everybody.

• 59:03Speaker 02

  You obviously enjoyed the episode because you're here with me at the end. But listen, don't forget to go to realvision.com/join and grab a free membership. It's an incredible community packed with alpha, great investment ideas and the research that you need to help you unfuck your future. So get started now. Go to realvision.com/join.