Is Inflation About to Derail the Rally? with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays - Oct. 19, 2026

Andreas Steno of Steno Research is flying solo on this week's Macro Mondays, breaking down the latest inflation signals and what they mean for the market outlook. With energy prices and input costs rising, is another inflation shock on the horizon — and could Kevin Warsh be focusing on the wrong inflation measure? Andreas also examines the latest business cycle data, why he's not ready to turn bearish on equities just yet, and what renewed pressure in France's bond market could mean for European investors. 🏆 The Real Vision Trading is now open! The best trade ideas on the platform compete for $80,000 in cash. 📈 Trading League: https://realvision.com/your-future Timestamps: 00:00 - France Is Burning — But Is the Market Panic Overdone? 02:30 - French Bond Stress: Why Credit Markets Are Turning on France 04:23 - AI Credit Stress: Is the Data Center Buildout Finally Breaking? 05:14 - Extreme Fear, Record Hedging, and the Midterm Setup 07:30 - Why This AI Selloff Is More Fundamental Than the Last Ones 08:26 - Hot CPI and PPI — So Why Did Bond Yields Fall? 09:38 - Positioning Is Crowded: Bonds, Energy, Dollar, and AI 11:30 - Inflation Peak Ahead? Why October Could Be the Turning Point 14:35 - Are the Mag 7 Really About to Cut AI CapEx? 15:41 - Compute Prices Are Rising — and That Changes the AI Bear Case 18:04 - DeepSeek Banned From US Government Systems: A New AI Trade War? 20:12 - Hiking Cycles, Credit Stress, and the Timing of the Next Trade 21:05 - Why Inflation and the Midterms Could Set Up a Q4 Rebound #macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch #realvision Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

• 0:00Speaker 00

  New week.

• 0:04Speaker 00

  Big moves.

• 0:08Speaker 00

  You ready? Andreas on the data, Mickel on the floor. Turn the headline into trades you can know. From yields to inflation, every chart, every trend. Get the story, get the setup from the open to the end. They try to be as actionable and as honest as possible. But keep in mind that their predictions might be. Sometimes maybe good.

• 0:35Speaker 01

  Sometimes it's maybe good.

• 0:37Speaker 00

  Sometimes maybe shit.

• 0:38Speaker 01

  Sometimes it's maybe shit. Shit, shit, shit, shit, shit, shit, shit, shit, shit, shit. Sometimes it's maybe good, sometimes it's maybe shit.

• 0:46Speaker 00

  It's Macro Mondays. Big picture. Clear play, stocks, bonds, FX, crypto on the way. Get context with the strategy right now on your screen. Macro Mondays, level up your week. Oh, yeah.

• 1:06Speaker 02

  Hello there, welcome to Real Vision, welcome to Macro Mondays. My name is Mick Rossmann, I'm joined as usual by Andreas Denel. And if, I'm not sure if you can see it in the caption of Andreas here, but we are joined by your son Andreas as well in the studio.

• 1:21Speaker 03

  Yeah, we have a live audience today, so here we go.

• 1:25Speaker 02

  It's gonna be wonderful, wonderful, great to see you, Andreas. And Andreas, quite an eventful afternoon, European time, morning US time we've had here. So we both have interesting news out of Iran. The breakup of WhatsApp negotiations apparently between US and Iran. We have brand new ISM numbers, so we have a lot to unwrap. And we obviously entered a new month, so we're gonna try to unwrap what we see coming in June, both from a macroeconomic but also from a macroeconomic standpoint, but also throw in a few trade ideas maybe. Maybe if we have time for it, we're just gonna touch upon Bitcoin that you also wrote a bit about in your Stenosikles report, Andreas.

• 2:06Speaker 02

  And speaking of your Stenosikles reports, it's out this afternoon or later today. That's one of the three paid articles that we publish every week on Real Vision. That's for the approach here. If you're not interested in the approach here, you can always watch Macro Mondays. That's for free every Monday. But we do urge you to look at some of the options at Real Vision. If you're up for the approach here, you can also catch Andreas's monthly State of the Union show this Wednesday. What can people expect there, Andreas?

• 2:35Speaker 03

  Well, it's early days, but it seems like we have more or less flatlining inflation momentum in the US, especially since the first week of May, which is a big surprise in many ways, given that we don't have a resolution to the Strait of Hormuz. And you know, given what happened 45 minutes ago, it looks even further away, that resolution, to be honest. So a lot of surprises still in the macro landscape, in my opinion. And remember that roughly two months ago, everyone was caught in a very doom and gloom-like storytelling around the Iran war and how it would impact global supply chains, growth and all of that.

• 3:16Speaker 03

  And we stayed with a very positive view on the economy due to our outcasting. It basically looked a lot better than what was portrayed in many financial media outlets, etc. And it allowed us to capture this massive rally that we've seen over the past two months. And you know, my main conclusion in the editorial today is that, you know, we're currently high-fiving each other right, left and center around our abilities to find the next bottleneck trade in AI, the next bottleneck trade in electricity. But remember that macro is basically the driver, right? And therefore, macro is, you know, everything. And it will be everything in that show on Wednesday.

• 4:00Speaker 02

  Absolutely, looking forward to that, Andreas. Remember, guys, as you alluded to a little bit here, over the past two months, things have been mostly good. But remember that our trade ideas, while actionable and well researched, might be.

• 4:13Speaker 01

  Sometimes it's maybe good, sometimes it's maybe shit.

• 4:17Speaker 02

  That's always important also to mention, even when things are going okay here, Andreas. Okay, Andreas, let's maybe start on the ISM that just came out. Very, very strong numbers, surprisingly strong, from what I saw. What's your initial reaction here?

• 4:34Speaker 03

  So again, it rhymes very well with what we're seeing in our outcasts. We're talking about a US economy that is mostly accelerating in manufacturing terms, not as much in services terms. And I actually think this is what you should expect for the upcoming couple of quarters as well, since the whole AI build-out is very manufacturing-heavy, not least due to the hardware trade that we've talked a lot about over the past couple of months. But obviously also due to the on-ground CapEx that follows such a build-out of data centers, etc., right? So very satisfied to see that the manufacturing sector is basically growing at a faster pace than it did pre-war. Big surprise to many, but it was well flagged in our outcasts.

• 5:19Speaker 03

  So and you know, the new orders index is rising as well. So I mean, it looks good for the next couple of months here. Again, this has caught many by surprise. But if you follow the data on ground on a day-to-day basis, it shouldn't really surprise you, to be honest.

• 5:36Speaker 02

  Absolutely, Andreas. We're gonna get back to the inflation part of it, obviously. Let's just touch upon Iran a little bit before moving on to what we see happening in June and some of the bottleneck trades we've been looking at. Andreas, you mentioned it 45 minutes ago, we had the news that Iran has broken off. Message replies is probably one translation of what we saw in Farsi. I'm not a Farsi speaker. It's probably a few WhatsApp channels, if I'm being completely honest, that have been shut down, that have served as some of the main communication links between the US and Iran. We also saw over the last few days increased attacks between the US and Iran.

• 6:19Speaker 02

  My reading on that, that remains even what we've seen today, is that the ceasefire and the peace process is very, very fragile. But as long as both sides still stick to the wording of a ceasefire, then we have a ceasefire. So as long as the attacks are centered around the Strait of Hormuz, close to the water, you can somehow claim that it's contained within that realm, that it's different from attacks on Dubai or Tehran or whatever. But it's becoming really, really fragile, Andreas. This is a long way from the almost, this is almost over that we've heard over and over again, especially if you follow Barack Baravid and the Axios guys.

• 7:04Speaker 02

  I believe they do a great job, but we've heard from them, I think, a dozen times at least. That this is it, now it's done. We're still waiting for that final "here we go" message from the White House. But Andreas, what do you make of the market reaction? We're seeing oil obviously spike on these news. Do you think the market patience is running out with this? Or are we still pricing this in fairly?

• 7:30Speaker 03

  So I actually think the market reaction is fairly benign. I mean, oil is up a little bit more than a handful of percent. But if you look at the US equity market, I mean, yes, sure, we're down a little bit, but it's almost flat on the day, right? For what it's worth, this Iran war, outside of the few first weeks, has proven to be a lot less relevant for the global economy than many fear, right? And I know there is an end date to that view, since we cannot rely on global storages of oil and jet fuel and what have you for the remainder of the year. So we need a resolution on probably within this quarter or the early parts of next quarter

• 8:11Speaker 03

  for this global upswing to remain intact. But for now, the market seems pretty calm about what we've received from the Iranian news bureau just 45 minutes ago. As far as I can tell, Mickel, they basically tell the US to rein in the Israeli Defense Force, basically. That's the key message. You need to stop Israel for us to sign a deal. And you said this to me on Friday. Expect Israel to do something now because they have a window of opportunity before the deal is signed. So maybe this is, you know, the last saber rattling. I don't know.

• 8:55Speaker 03

  I mean, I've called an end to this war quite a few times, and I think I should refrain from doing it again.

• 9:02Speaker 02

  Yeah, but we've made a lot of money doing so, Andreas. And that is the end of the day while we're here. No, but you're right. I feel like, Andreas, it's like when you're at a nightclub and it's getting late, it's 3, 4 o'clock. You can hear, okay, these are the final songs, you need to make a move now. I think that is essentially what Israel is up to. It may sound a little bit cynical, I know people are dying, it's horrible. But from a strategic standpoint, that is, they have a window when we have a true peace between the US and Iran. The US will not allow Israel to continue these attacks. So they need to get some business done. And they always have a list of things they want to do inside their neighboring countries. And they're trying to get as much of that done because it buys them time and advantage over Hezbollah moving forward.

• 9:47Speaker 02

  So Andreas, once again, I have no effing clue when this thing is gonna end. It seems like Trump keeps getting close to a deal, but then changing his mind. Getting close to a deal, then changing his mind, always trying for slightly better terms, still quoting the fact that the Iranians believe they've won this. And they have a legitimate claim that they have at least held out to a draw. So it's very, very hard for Trump to find an off-ramp that satisfies his requirements for calling this a victory. So but in a way, the economy is still doing quite well. We have these supply chain issues, some of them are being worked on. Some of it is handled through demand destruction, not as much perhaps.

• 10:30Speaker 02

  Perhaps still a fear scenario, and that's the last thing I want to ask you here, Andreas. What do you see as sort of the pain threshold here time-wise? If this drags on throughout the summer, is that a problem? How far do we need to go before this truly becomes a problem?

• 10:47Speaker 03

  You know, my best guess right now is that we have, you know, comfortably still have six, seven weeks left of reserves. But of course, if you get very close to that deadline, the leverage from the US side weakens quite a lot, if I'm right. So let's see, my base case and my working assumption has been that we need to strike some sort of ceasefire deal or prolonged deal, including at least a partial reopening of the Strait of Amos sometime during June for the economy to keep accelerating. And I still hold that view. Of course, if they close the shipping route through the Red Sea as well,

• 11:32Speaker 03

  which is something that, you know, they've threatened with, you know,

• 11:39Speaker 03

  using their alliances around the globe. Let me put it like that. In this case, obviously the Houthis in Yemen to wreak havoc on that part of the supply chain as well. And if they strike a few ships there, I'm pretty sure that we'll get a few nasty days in markets, right? So that is obviously the one that we need to watch now. But they've had so many opportunities to do so. It doesn't seem like the Houthis are really willing to do it. I'm not really capable of explaining why, but why now? They've had plenty, plenty of chances to do it.

• 12:10Speaker 02

  Yeah, exactly. It seems like there is a willingness to contain this from Iran's standpoint and still keeping that leverage alive, because they are losing the home use leverage long term. But let's move on a little bit, Andreas, to look at the month of June. We've just talked about the potential top in inflation, a good ISM number, and things are looking quite okay. And Andreas, in our portfolio, which has been doing great this year, we've picked out currently nine thematics that we're trading against. You can track the portfolio live on Real Vision. Myself personally, I've skewed my investments a bit more towards two of those thematics. And that's obviously the two of the nine that have performed horribly throughout the 26, robotics and military drones.

• 12:56Speaker 02

  We had a bit of life support in the military drones last week, and I still believe completely in these topics. Robotics is still, especially industrial robotics, still struggling a little bit here in 26. But then you sent me this video, Andreas, and this revived all my hopes in industrial robotics. Let's see if we can get it played here.

• 13:20Speaker 04

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• 13:25Speaker 04

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• 14:09Speaker 04

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• 14:22Speaker 05

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• 14:39Speaker 02

  So Andreas, my thinking here is if there is so much potential money to be made, and it's the really potential, because these home service robotics aren't really on the market, aside from vacuum cleaners. If there's so much money to be made in this that it pays off to now, way before these things are on the market, it's already profitable to clean people's homes for free. I mean, the potential must be huge in this. Am I right?

• 15:06Speaker 03

  Of course, of course, the potential is huge. I wouldn't call it profitable as of today, right? But the point here, and I guess it's a thing that I've, you know, kind of missed this year, is that for AI to work in real life situations such as, you know, cleaning desks or whatever it is, you need loads and loads and loads and loads of recordings, right?

• 15:40Speaker 03

  And the one example we have of, you know, millions of hours of recordings in real life is in autonomous vehicles. We've had Teslas on the road for a long while. We've had Waymos on the road for a long while, and they've just doubled their driven autonomous miles over the past six months or something like that. It's a true exponential case by now. But for, you know, in a load of other real life practical issues, we still need the recordings first for the, you know, the AI to be trained. And therefore, you know, we're probably talking years before

• 16:24Speaker 03

  those robots, those humanoid robots are really truly capable of solving these things. And the question is whether we have patience enough in this cycle to wait for that. I mean, I fully believe in this trend, say, five, seven years ahead. But the question is whether we will get enough progress in some of these cases related to humanoid robots already this cycle. I doubt it, because we need all of these recordings first. So, you know, in practical terms, what we've done is that we've started to tilt our robotics portfolio towards autonomous miles as a simple consequence of that, because there we actually have a load of recordings already that you can use to train the models.

• 17:11Speaker 02

  Makes a lot of sense, Andreas. Okay, let's zoom into the matters truly at hand here in the month of June.

• 17:19Speaker 02

  We've talked about this being at least partially liquidity driven rally. Where do you see the liquidity situation right now? We have the sort of our go to chart coming up here.

• 17:31Speaker 03

  Yeah, there it is.

• 17:35Speaker 03

  We have another good month ahead of us, largely driven by technicalities, since the US Treasury is currently underestimating the issuance needs. And this is in sharp contrast to what we saw during the second half of last year. Remember how the deficit actually proved to be, you know, better than feared during large parts of last year, in parts due to the tariffs intake? And yeah, currently, the terrorist intake is not particularly strong, to say the least, right? We've had two rulings against the terrorist policy of the administration now. You know, first, these reciprocal tariffs on a one on one basis versus other countries. They were deemed illegal, I think it was in January.

• 18:21Speaker 03

  And then the administration replaced those reciprocal tariffs with a 10% global tax instead, and that was deemed illegal as well. So now they're stuck with a terrorist intake that is probably at max index 40 of what they hoped for.

• 18:41Speaker 03

  So it's a big deal for the deficit. It actually turned into a pretty nice revenue source, this terrorist policy. And now they're, I actually don't know whether they're looking into new solutions on how to terrorists other countries, but terrify the countries. But for now, it's crystal clear that they have to pay back more than they take in,

• 19:04Speaker 03

  which leaves a nasty hole in the budget for the coming month or two. And, you know, the last time they updated their issuance profile was, I think it was the 3rd of May. And yeah, we've only had negative surprises since. So it basically means that they have to use the liquidity that they have at hand already on hand already, right? They have this TGA at the Federal Reserve currently running.

• 19:29Speaker 03

  Below projections as a consequence of this, and I think we will see a large drawdown in this, on this account over the next four to six weeks as a consequence of these tariffs paybacks. And that essentially means that private banks will be on the receiving end of this liquidity. And do note that on the very bottom of this panel, we probably have the metric that matters the most, a live gauge of the price of leverage. So it's the spread between software rates and effective Fed funds rates. And we're pricing very negative now, meaning that the software rate is well below the effective Fed funds rate. And that typically happens when there is an abundance of dollars.

• 20:11Speaker 03

  So basically banks are readily available in terms of providing you with balance sheet capacity to lever up trades and treasuries, mortgages, whatever. And that's a big part of what's ongoing right now because we've obviously seen a spike in leverage through this rally. And you know, given how it's priced right now, I would assume that the spike in leverage continues. A spike in leverage can be two-sided, basically. You can also use leverage to short things, right? And we've certainly seen that, for example, in software, which is probably one of the reasons why software is now flying, because we essentially have a short squeeze there. And that probably leads us to the final question, why aren't we seeing a squeeze in Bitcoin?

• 20:56Speaker 03

  Now that software is improving, right? I think that's a big puzzle. Yeah, please bring up this chart. I mean, it's getting personal now. It kind of seems like Bitcoin is basically the only risk asset that is not really participating, right? Which is odd. And you know, I've seen some pundits rolling their portfolio into crypto now. I, you know, for transparency, I actually sold a bit of ETH last week to pay taxes. So I've done the opposite. And with my short attention span, I said, you know, I'm very bad at waiting, if you know what I mean.

• 21:35Speaker 02

  It's the same point as the robotic. Can you wait three, four years for this? Nobody has patience for that in this, in this market, this part of the rally. And I mean, usually when, when, when the level of greed, the level of returns people are getting in all sorts of trades is this high, we should be, we should be talking Doge, we should be talking Fartcoin, but we're not. So there has been sort of a vibe shift. And the question is if, if, if it can still come with the liquidity and the ISM is 5400, it should, should be.

• 22:07Speaker 03

  Yeah. And let me put it like this, it would be odd if Bitcoin was the only risk asset that wouldn't enjoy its moment in the sun during this cycle. So I guess it could be very violent once, once the momentum returns. But let's see, I'm, I'm still patiently watching the price action here. I haven't really added to anything in that space. I'm, I'm under allocated to crypto versus what I've typically given. That's the honest answer here. Simply since we see so, you know, many good return cases elsewhere. And yeah, I guess it's, it's a sign of the times in a way that, I mean, we know that both from flow evidence, but also from anecdotal evidence that, that some crypto investors

• 22:48Speaker 03

  have obviously shifted focus to AI for a lot of reasons. And yeah, we simply need some trigger to get the price momentum back, I guess.

• 22:58Speaker 02

  Okay, Andres, I promised people three banger trades for June. I can gauge from what you're telling me, it's not ETH, it's not Bitcoin. What are you looking into?

• 23:10Speaker 03

  I honestly would move that out.

• 23:12Speaker 02

  No, it doesn't have to be specific names. People can watch our portfolio from that, but which sectors are you looking for if we, if we limit it to June?

• 23:20Speaker 03

  This software squeeze is getting pretty violent now, and the market is caught very, very short in this trade. To be specific, I like a few names within the security space. We've doubled down on those during that SaaS apocalypse. We, we've made tremendous returns there and stay, you know, heavily allocated to security software. So that, that is a very good case for, for June, I think. On, on top of that, I, I think the surprise element here, look at Dell's numbers last week. Wow, right? Mostly in AI service, but we're also starting to see the spillovers to some of the end consumer products.

• 24:05Speaker 03

  We also saw HP Enterprise making a partnership with Nvidia now on, on, on a new production line, which, which is very interesting. So another name in that space that looks compelling. So computer server makers, wow, I, I don't think we've even started in that trade. We, we entered that trade, yeah, was it, correct me if I'm wrong, probably three or four weeks ago, Michael, and you know, Dell is trading like a meme coin.

• 24:35Speaker 02

  Absolutely. It's the ultimate boom. This is your best hold of the year, Andres. I have to say, a company like Dell, the ultimate, you had all these memes of the, was it the JP Morgan offices being started with the, the dystopian, everything. It shouldn't be doing good and it's, it's doing, I mean, peak meme coin material here. It's, it's incredible, Andres, what we're seeing.

• 24:55Speaker 03

  So software, yeah, software and these end consumer producers of servers, computers, et cetera. I think those are two good trades. Then, this is probably early days because we had this Wall Street Journal article last week around some of the drone companies potentially receiving funding in return for equity stakes. And the most important factor right now in equity markets is momentum. And we've seen a reversal of the momentum in a couple of these high beater names in drones. So I, I'm actually tempted to say that it makes sense to add to some of these drone names.

• 25:40Speaker 03

  Of course, unusual machines is absolutely through the roof since they have Donnie Junior on the board, right? But yeah, I, I don't want to comment on that, but, but anyway, I, I should refrain from doing so because I don't think I can, I could save myself if I start commenting on it. But having said that, it looks like there is a potential confirmation case here, if you know what I mean, through June, because for now, we only had that, we have that Wall Street Journal story about the negotiations, but we haven't seen the confirmation. And once the confirmation of these packages arrived for quantum companies a few weeks ago, we had another massive spike there, right?

• 26:22Speaker 03

  So it could be, you know, a specific confirmation case for drones in June.

• 26:26Speaker 02

  Yeah, absolutely. The one problem for, for drones is that it is still a military thing. It is still related to the war. And if we get one or two wars ended, it should be negative also for military drones. And not enough to make it a bad case, in my opinion. I'm, I'm very, very long. I'm, I believe this is going to be an incredible case for coming years, but just one thing to consider is very specifically for June. But, but obviously the country is getting, getting picked for, for US equity takeover, US equity acquisitions. It's kind of been incredible, Jade. And I have to say, for, for, for the wrong reasons, unusual machines looks, looks really, really interesting there, Andres.

• 27:06Speaker 03

  But Michael, let me mention one thing before we conclude the show here. Have you noticed how Claude has started recommending going long service now? So, you know, quite a few people have just asked Claude to, you know, come up with portfolio tips on a running basis, and I don't think they've necessarily prompted it. So, you know, tell me what to buy on a running basis and refresh it once a day, something like that, right? And I've seen quite a few screenshots of it suggesting service now, obviously probably on the back of Trump buying into the stock, right? But it's been on an absolute tear since.

• 27:49Speaker 03

  And it's funny because I don't think there's a more obvious cannibalization case than exactly service now from the launch of, of Claude, right? So, and now Claude is recommending it as the best buy out there, which is peak meta in a sense, or peak circular era. I don't know, I don't know what to say about it, but there's a huge short squeeze ongoing in service now, so that could also be another fun play for June. I don't own it, but yeah.

• 28:20Speaker 02

  And you know, Andres, at some point, we're gonna have to, you're gonna dislike this. At some point, we're gonna have to try and estimate how much money is being managed on people's own accounts directly by recommendations from Claude. And how much, to what extent are they getting the same recommendations? How much is, yeah, that's.

• 28:37Speaker 03

  You know, I'm an investor and fund manager, first and foremost, but also an analyst, right? So I, I actually think it's something that we need to consider on an ongoing basis going forward because it adds to the momentum factor.

• 28:54Speaker 02

  Exactly.

• 28:55Speaker 03

  That, that, you know, everybody's just piling on the same trades because they're told so by Claude and Gemini and whatever. And it gives you opportunities both as an investor in value names and in momentum names. Because obviously you'll get some moves that will be three, four standard deviations off the chart, which will provide you with tremendous opportunities to fade if you can find the right timing to do so. But there is also plenty of money to be made in the momentum trade in the meantime, right? So you, you simply have to, to maneuver both the value and the momentum factor here.

• 29:35Speaker 02

  Absolutely, Andres. Okay, guys, that's all we have for you this week. Remember to, if you're a ProT, you're a subscriber at Real Vision, to tune into Andres's State of the Union speak here on, or show here on Wednesday. Another eventful week. We'll be back next Monday with another macro update, hopefully with even better news on Iran and a still ongoing rally at that time. Thanks to you, Andres, for joining. Thanks to everyone for tuning in. We'll be back next week.

• 30:03Speaker 05

  You obviously enjoyed the episode because you're here with me at the end. But listen, don't forget to go to realvision.com/join and grab a free membership. It's an incredible community packed with alpha, great investment ideas and the research that you need to help you unfuck your future. So get started now. Go to realvision.com/join.