Is the Risk-On Trade Breaking Down? | Macro Mondays: September 14, 2026

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to discuss several key macro signals that are potentially shifting all at once. They dig into the outlook for oil flows, whether a new hiking cycle is starting to emerge, and what it all means for the risk-on trade. Be sure to check out the Steno Nowcasting Dashboard for the latest signals on growth, inflation, and liquidity, only on Real Vision! 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision: https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Timestamps: 00:00 - Macro Mondays with Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold 00:07 - Are We F*cked? AI, Inflation, Oil, and Rate Hikes 02:25 - Dario Amodei’s AI Warning: Is the AI Boom About to Slow? 05:22 - Why AI CEOs May Be Hedging Political Risk Ahead of the IPOs 09:18 - Could the US Government End Up Backstopping the AI Buildout? 11:07 - Hardware vs Software: Who Loses If AI Development Slows? 15:23 - Fed Preview: Why a September Rate Hike Now Looks Likely 17:03 - Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Latest Oil Supply Shock 20:32 - Oil Above $100? Why Markets May Already Be Pricing the Worst 22:32 - What Kevin Warsh Could Signal After the Rate Hike 24:18 - What Usually Happens to Stocks After the Fed Starts Hiking? 25:39 - Why the Dollar Could Still Be the Trade to Fade 27:52 - Fed vs Global Central Banks: Why the US May Hike Less Than Everyone Else #macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

• 0:06Speaker 00

  Hello out there, welcome to Real Vision, welcome to Macro Mondays. My name is Michael Rosenwald, I'm joined as usual by Andres Dano. And I have to say Andres, this has been quite a weekend and quite a Monday. I had a feeling everything is tumbling down right now. Oil is at 120, 110. The AI train seems to be stopping. We're entering hiking season, summer is ending, the weather is horrible, Andres. How fucked are we right now?

• 0:37Speaker 01

  Well, you know, I actually turned pretty upbeat Friday afternoon when I saw a pretty muted reaction to that CPI print, which was admittedly a bit hotter than what we expected. And then Dario fucked up my weekend, Dario Amodei of Anthropic. To the extent where, you know, he basically wrote that the internet could end in six to 12 months from now. And I see that some of the, you know, usual suspects within the software industry, they're responding to this straight out of the gate because we received a price increase notification from Bloomberg already today. You know inbox, you've seen that as well. So it's like they've already responded with a lot more confidence after

• 1:19Speaker 01

  Dario asked to slow down the train in the AI space over the weekend. But yeah, let's get back to it, but I don't think we're as fucked as you think.

• 1:28Speaker 00

  That's good to hear, Andres. We'll try and unpack as much as we can within the time space we have here. We're obviously unpacking everything in Real Vision, trying to cover all the angles, everything that's going wrong right now and what your opportunities are. This Wednesday, for instance, we're doing an Ask Me Anything, you and I, Andres, right after the FOMC meeting. So that's at 3:30 PM Eastern. That's for Pro members only at Real Vision, so if you want the live reaction to that, you can tune into that. Otherwise, I suggest having a look at our State of the Union show that you did last week, Andres. Really great run through of what our models are telling us right now. We'll touch upon some of it, but for the deep dive, you should check out our Pro Continent, Real Vision,

• 2:11Speaker 00

  to get the full coverage and to keep you ahead of the curve. So Andres, where do you want to start? Dario, inflation, oil, which disaster to look at first?

• 2:25Speaker 01

  Dario, Dario. I mean, when he's telling us that the internet will end in six to 12 months, potentially mankind's, then yeah.

• 2:33Speaker 00

  That is probably the big story, Andres. Okay, so we had this tweet from a disgruntled ex Anthropic employee last week that really made the rounds, we have to admit. Probably setting him up for a great Substack channel or podcast or whatever you want to do, hedge fund maybe. And then it seemed like Dario Amodei, I don't know if he sort of jumped on this bandwagon, he called this, or he felt that he needed to cover this issue ahead of an upcoming IPO. And we can try and guess at his motives here. In any case, he suggested slowing the pace, pacing the development of AI. He received backing from Sam Altman and Elon Musk. Not from Donald Trump, we can get back to that, not at all. So how did you read this and is the market reaction fair in your opinion?

• 3:18Speaker 01

  I think the market reaction is pretty vanilla.

• 3:23Speaker 01

  So by telling the market that at least he's in favor of slowing things down, he's obviously also trying to tell the market that the hardware trade will slow down. And some of the, you know, some of those companies that have been on the receiving end of all of the AI beatings, if you know what I mean, all the Software as a Service names and all of those names, they've recovered a little bit of ground today. So I mean, it is a straightforward market response to this. The question is whether, you know, the timeline and, you know, the risk scenario that he puts forward and he lays out, whether it's something to really worry about. And, you know, I did this simple study since 24

• 4:09Speaker 01

  of all of the, you know, big quotes and big timelines by the AI bosses, right? Sam Altman, Dario Amade, Mark Zuckerberg, et cetera, right? And I actually don't think any of those big promises with very tight deadlines and very tight timelines have come into fruition. I mean, just take an example. In May 25, he said that we would have a white collar block bath and half of entry level jobs would be gone in 12 months. And unemployment could go to 10 to 20%. I think he said within one to three years, maybe one to four years. But at least we're now one and a half years into it and nothing, nothing is happening, right? That's point number one.

• 4:53Speaker 01

  He also stated in March 25 that AI would write 95% of all code within three to six months. We're getting there, but clearly later than what he said here. So sure, and I mean, is there a risk that we could see rogue swarms hijacking the internet within six to 12 months? I personally don't care a lot about that timeline, given how he's guided us in other instances. In terms of his motives, a couple of things, you know, I've seen a lot of theories floated on the internet. And I personally just asked Claude to respond to his obvious AI slop. Because if you, if you read his blog, it is very, very clearly written by AI.

• 5:38Speaker 01

  And everyone does that, so it's not like I'm trying to paint another story. But having said that, Michael,

• 5:49Speaker 01

  let me put it like this. So he's, he's asking for a slower pace of the whole model build out

• 6:01Speaker 01

  for safety reasons. My first initial reaction was, okay, this is a hedge against the midterms. You know, the Democrats have clearly been talking about this. So in light of that, I think it makes sense that both Sam Altman, Elon Musk and Dario Amodei of Anthropic, that they all hedge this risk in unison. Since it could be a real risk that the Democrats would actually like to see something like this if they gain back power, right? Not that it necessarily matters a whole lot if they win the midterms, but you know, it's probably a sign that we're getting there again, that the Democrats will, yeah, directionally speaking, get back in power.

• 6:45Speaker 01

  That could be one theory, which I personally have a lot of sympathy for. The other thing that I, you know, initially noted was that, okay, he's asking for a slower pace three, four weeks after his biggest competitor just outpaced them. You know, with the release of the Astra model.

• 7:05Speaker 01

  At least on all benchmarks, Claude is now, Profable is now second in line, right? So, but that doesn't really answer the question why Sam Altman said that he did agree to, right? So the third thing, which is more worrisome if you're into the long hardware trade and we can maybe get the hardware versus software trade on the screens here, is that maybe they're a little scared of how costly this race is. And I think that would be the most bearish of all of these explanations.

• 7:39Speaker 01

  It just, you know, at least for now, I think the business momentum, the underlying business momentum in each of the three businesses that we've touched upon, SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI, I think they, they pretty much back up their pipeline of compute liabilities.

• 7:57Speaker 01

  You know, if Anthropic can 3X their revenue from here, remember they've gone from zero to 70 billion dollars in annual recurring revenue. If they can get to 200 within a few years, I think they're decently ahead of their compute curve in terms of revenues versus costs.

• 8:19Speaker 01

  Same for OpenAI, so you know, I'm personally not really worried about it, but it could be that they're trying to hedge that risk, right? But I personally hold most sympathy for this theory that they're trying to hedge their political risk here. Because they ultimately want the US Treasury or the administration in the US to underpin this case, right? To, to, you know, underpin or to hedge the left tail risk of their business. Because they know that there is a left tail risk, that everything falls apart and maybe the open models will gain too much ground and all of that. So I think that is what it's all about. They're trying to remove the left tail risk. And if that's, if that is the case, that they're just trying

• 9:05Speaker 01

  to incentivize politicians to help them hedge against that left tail risk, then this is, this is actually bullish. But, you know, again, we're, we're basically guessing here.

• 9:18Speaker 00

  Yeah, no, but I agree with you, Andres, because look at Donald Trump's response, very, very quickly, very, very falsely, completely denies getting involved in any of this. This might change when a new administration comes into place, but right now, no appetite for AI regulations within the US government. I think Dario Amodei knows this or would have known this. You can see, as we all can, that this is a new nuclear race against China, so there's no stopping. But that also means if, if it becomes too expensive to borrow for CapEx, if the IPOs happen, okay, you get some money for, but eventually,

• 9:53Speaker 00

  if AI and Anthropic or the hyperscalers are struggling to find cash for CapEx, does the government swoop in? That's the big question that you're also hinting a little bit at here. Because Donald Trump has essentially made this a national security issue, that he's not going to regulate this because they're afraid of falling behind China. That logically also means that if CapEx slows down because of a lack of cash essentially, the government may step in to support this, which removes a big part of the left tail, I should say, for the trade here. Let's talk a little bit about the hardware case, Andres. Let's try and work a little bit about the logic here. Because if we did get, because that must be what the market is assuming

• 10:36Speaker 00

  or trying to price in a risk of an actual slowing down of sort of the tip of the spear in AI development, why does that hit the hardware, the hardware trade? I'm not sure I get that because this doesn't affect regular companies adopting AI. This doesn't affect your CRM adoption, what might it be of AI? Probably it opens up more compute for businesses like ours, Andres. We've been struggling with that, and Claude, to be honest. So how does that affect the hardware, hardware and software trades in your opinion?

• 11:07Speaker 01

  It depends a little bit on both the time horizon and how you look at it, right? To begin with, I agree with you that slowing down the frontier does not necessarily mean that you slow down the model deployment. And as long as you deploy the model, there is obviously a need for compute. The question is whether there's a need for next-gen GPUs, including high-bandwidth memory and all of that. So, you know, all of the hyperscalers, you know, into next year and the year after, buying Vera Rubin and, you know, the new generation of GPUs with loads and loads and loads of

• 11:52Speaker 01

  high-bandwidth memory chips in combination with that, does it risk slowing that down? Do you really need the state-of-the-art equipment if you're no longer running as fast towards, you know, developing the frontier even further? That's questionable, in my opinion. You know, you could argue that it's bad for Nvidia and, you know, ultimately those supplying Nvidia indirectly, for example, in the memory space. So I think it is fair that you need to reassess that outcome space for Nvidia and the hardware

• 12:31Speaker 01

  names, but you're absolutely right that it doesn't overall lead to a slowdown of the compute need. It leads to a slowdown, potentially, I'd say, in the state-of-the-art equipment that you're going to buy next year and next.

• 12:47Speaker 00

  Yeah, very pointed address. Let's look a little bit more on the IPO angle and maybe also on the strategic angle here because these companies that are now backing a call for reducing the pace of the frontier development here, they're also the companies who are perhaps trying to build modes as they enter IPO territory and as they're trying to keep out Chinese competitors, keep out potential competitors. We don't know if they're mistrust in Europe suddenly finds out something, but I mean, Andres, Europe often gets a lot of heat for having too much regulation on businesses. A lot of that regulation comes from the businesses themselves.

• 13:29Speaker 00

  Is this another instance and perhaps the first steps in this because this smells to me a lot like European banks going to the EU asking for stricter controls on the financial sector, which essentially builds a mode for the established businesses because it's so costly to even enter the space.

• 13:47Speaker 01

  Yeah, I think this is what is called a barrier of entry in the Porter's analysis of forces, right? So, sure, I think it kind of makes sense for them to try and navigate the market ahead in that way. And therefore, again, as I stated initially, I think the motive is mainly political, both as a hedge against the Democrats, but also to try and get the Trump administration a little bit more involved in this because they're essentially a little bit hands-off while they're still trying to accelerate the race, if you know what I mean. And I think the assessment from David Sacks, Donald Trump, et cetera, is that by having

• 14:29Speaker 01

  your hands off, you're getting to full speed, right? Which has so far been a decent assumption, in my opinion. So sure, it kind of makes sense that this is all a political hedge by the end of the day by Dario. Otherwise, I don't see how Musk, Altman and Amadee could agree on a message if it wasn't for a political reason, because they typically just hated each other, right?

• 14:58Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 14:59Speaker 01

  I actually think it's the first time they've ever agreed on it.

• 15:02Speaker 00

  More or less. It is just two and race.

• 15:06Speaker 02

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• 15:23Speaker 00

  Okay, Andres, we could talk much more in depth about this and I'm sure we will in coming weeks and months, but we have to look a bit ahead for Wednesday as well, Andres. Markets are increasingly settling with the fact that we are probably going to get a hike on Wednesday. Let's just begin there. You expect that as well?

• 15:42Speaker 01

  Yeah, I think it's difficult not to. I mean, a lot of the fence sitters, as I typically like to label them within the FOMC, they've put out pretty clear reaction functions. So if core inflation printed above 0.2, maybe 0.25, then we would get a hike and it did. So, you know, in all honesty, we're a little off on that. I'm still not worried about the core inflation outlook when you look at the observations that we're able to make. I mean, month on month is always difficult to get 100% right. But sure, headline inflation is nasty and, you know, it's nasty what we see in oil products right now.

• 16:26Speaker 01

  Just as we speak here, Meg, Trump is out saying on Truth Social that the diesel price is not caused by the Iran war. He's trying to put the focus on Russia versus Ukraine now. He's telling Russia and Ukraine to stop hitting each other's energy targets, right? Yeah, I mean, as far as I remember, Russia typically exports roughly 10% of global diesel exports, right? So they've typically had a 10% market share of all global diesel exports and now they have a market share of 1% or so because their refiners capacity is very low and they've stopped exporting as a consequence of it. So there is some merit to what he's saying here, but he's obviously also trying to get

• 17:09Speaker 01

  people to focus on something else because they're not really getting anywhere with all that ground stuff. And, you know, in my opinion, it's become even more messy this weekend and I'll allow you to unpack that.

• 17:18Speaker 00

  Yeah, absolutely, Andres. Let's just look at what happened this meeting this weekend. So obviously, we're nowhere closer to a US-Iran deal. I don't think that's anywhere close. And I am looking at some relief from a potential Iran-Qatar deal, Iran-Gulf State deal, which could be imminent. We don't know exactly what that's going to encompass. We hope it's some products. It's maybe too much to hope for jet fuel, but could be fertilizers, could be helium, other stuff that the Gulf States are then allowed to export, or that they're more broadly allowed to export but have to pay dues to the Iranians. We can live with that.

• 18:01Speaker 00

  That would still be a huge relief probably for energy costs. If we could, I mean, getting these sound tolls or what you might call them, set up the stratum, which would be a worst-case scenario 12 months ago, now it's almost like a Narnia. We're dreaming of getting to a point where you can exit the strait and have to pay the Iranians for it. But anyway, Andres, that's one point of relief we're looking for. That's also what caused me to be somewhat positive on oil, not too pessimistic about where we're going. What obviously tipped that analysis was the hit on the Yanpu pipeline, the east-west pipeline.

• 18:43Speaker 00

  And Andres, I had a lot of questions on this. We knew that something was happening. We could see the smoke cloud in the central Saudi Arabia. We could see that the pipeline had been hit. My initial reaction was to look at what happened the last times this pipeline was hit. We had some comparisons back in April. That took four days for the pipeline to be back up and running. So that was my best case. That was a pumping station getting hit as well. It seems like the damage is a little bit bigger this time, Andres. They have told us that it's going to take a few weeks to get this done, that they're missing some spare parts. Admittedly, I didn't factor that in. I didn't know that. But that's obviously what's driving the oil price up today.

• 19:27Speaker 00

  My best guess would be that this few weeks of disturbances should be priced in at 110. The question is, can this pipeline be hit in other places? Could it take even longer? It's tough to say. In any case, Andres, we have to say at this point, looking across the economy of the world, it's hard to point at any part of Trump's agenda that hasn't been completely derailed by the Iran war. We're talking China policy, we're talking trade policy, we're talking Europe, defense, oil, energy, cost of living, every aspect of Trump's presidency and his political agenda is almost, aside from women in swimming pools or trans women in swimming pools, aside

• 20:09Speaker 00

  from that, every part of Trump's presidency is currently being halted. The progress in all other areas are being halted by the Iran war. So the pressure is very, very high on him to get this solved. I don't see any solution anytime soon. They're also preparing the public for that. So, yeah, Andres, assuming in an oil price, that's what people want to hear about. Anything can happen down there. We could have another strike on the pipeline that could drive oil prices up even further. Aside from that, I don't see why we should get a lot higher than that at this point. But let's see. River of all time times and...

• 20:49Speaker 01

  Miguel, allow me to say this, you can read more in detail around how I view the market response, both to the events this weekend and obviously also the inflation report on Friday. But look at, for example, poly market or other prediction markets. I don't think anyone expects a solution anytime soon. So I mean, how much worse can it get from here? I mean, but sure, it can get worse. But everyone's already in the camp that it cannot be solved.

• 21:21Speaker 00

  Exactly.

• 21:22Speaker 01

  At least this year, right? So in that sense, it's not a major negative surprise if it gets a little worse because we're already there, right? No one expects this to be solved. So in that sense, it reminds me a little, as I've said for roughly a week, it reminds me a little of the setup back in March and April, where no one could see any light at the end of the tunnel. Oil prices were up. The market started positioning very bearishly. And, you know, right now, the market is long dollars, it's very short bonds, starting to pile into energy longs at a fast pace. It's also, to some extent, betting against the equity markets, especially betting against some of the momentum names that we've seen

• 22:04Speaker 01

  in the AI build out. So you've got the very solid cocktail for a complete wrong footing of everyone if something magically happens. That's just what I'm saying. Everyone is positioned the wrong way now if it happens.

• 22:18Speaker 00

  All it takes is one tweet, remember this? And that tweet may not come this week, but all it takes is one tweet of Hopium to turn this around, Andreas. Okay. Getting back to the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, Andreas, how much are you expecting in terms of forward guidance of what we're going to see over the next three, six, nine months? Because it hasn't really been Kevin Warsh's game. Do you think he'll dip more into that? Or are we just going to have to rely on the data that we have?

• 22:49Speaker 01

  Yeah, you know, at least we've gotten some sort of a clear reaction function if they hike this week. Because then I think it's safe to assume, as long as inflation is printing above 0.25% in core terms every month, we'll probably get some more. And I guess that that's been Walsh's target for a while, to get us to a point where the market knows how to read the data, instead of listening to him. So I would expect him to say nothing at all, rather than stating, now you can see that we move if X, Y, Z happens. And that

• 23:28Speaker 01

  is how you should expect us to act. So again, it will be more of a inflation now casting slash forecasting exercise than trying to second guess how they operate, which I think is a step forward, actually. I hold a lot of sympathy for his for his lack of guidance, or his guidance of the lack of guidance. Having said that, apparently everyone, even though he spent like 30 minutes in Jackson Hole, trying to say, this is not forward guidance, this is not forward guidance, this is not forward guidance. Okay, you're hiking in September, was sort of the conclusion, right? So it is so difficult not to forward guide at all. And the market is still caught in that exercise of trying, okay, was that a little hint of

• 24:12Speaker 01

  that? Was that a little hint of that? I actually don't think he's hinting at anything. He's basically not trying to, at least. So look at the data instead.

• 24:20Speaker 00

  Yeah. Could this actually be positive for equities, Andreas, to get that hike? Get it out of the way? Get it out of the system? It almost feels like a lot of investors are waiting for things to hurt more in the US economy. So could it actually be positive for?

• 24:35Speaker 01

  Yeah. So, you know, I did this small exercise of looking at all of the historical Fed hiking seasons, right? Where around the first hike, what actually happens in markets, right? Maybe we can take a look at the S and P 500 on page 13, Miguel. Because, you know, it is not the best environment for equities, but it's not a catastrophe either. You can see that the average is actually positive, but with one big outlier to the upside, and, you know, several so and so-ish developments, right? It's not like we've

• 25:16Speaker 01

  seen an immediate landslide. I mean, the average is to see a drop of, say, 3%, 4%, 5% over the coming 50 days, which is manageable, right? So I'm not going to say that this is going to be a plethora of opportunity in equity space, because it's obviously not. But it's not the end of the world either. It's rather flattish, to be honest. And I think the most interesting exercise is when you look at the dollar. I think we have that on page 11 there. Remember, this is in euro-dollar terms. So if we see a falling dark blue average here, it means that the dollar gains. And it's very, very firm. And you can basically

• 26:00Speaker 01

  see that in all of the, you know, historical hiking setups. And you see a strong dollar into the hike, and then it could go anywhere. And I actually think the dollar has underperformed a lot versus everything that's been happening. You know, energy prices up, that would typically be bad for Europe and Japan and what have you. The Fed certainly catching up to the rate hikes that we see elsewhere would be very dollar positive typically. We've seen very high bond yields in the US, also typically dollar positive, but it's not responding to the way that it would typically done, the dollar to everything that's happening.

• 26:42Speaker 01

  And that's to be very telling for, you know, how the market is already positioned in this story. We know that the market is heavily leaning into the dollar story in a positive sense. We see a high participation in the long dollar trade by speculants. And therefore, I'm tempted to say when the dollar, I mean, it has rallied a bit today, but again, you would probably have expected worse, I mean, given everything that's been happening. Also, equity space, you would have expected worse if this was really the end of the world, right? You would have expected more in the oil price. I mean, I think the market is

• 27:23Speaker 01

  responding fairly benign to everything that's happening. It's not like this has been a deep-seated 2.0 moment, right? Which a lot of people told me it would be today. So again, I think it's telling, it's not like we're trying to convince all market participants to stop the euphoric sentiment, because the euphoric sentiment isn't there. And that makes me a lot more comfortable just staying, you know, with a short dollar lean, hoping that we get just a little bit of positivity in rate of change terms and all of these things.

• 27:56Speaker 00

  Christophe, Andreas, any final remarks before we round off the show, Andreas? It's been a hectic few days over the weekend, lots of activity. What else are you looking for this week?

• 28:09Speaker 01

  Yeah, so I mean, it's quite interesting now that we have, I think, four rate hikes from the European Central Bank priced in in total until the end of next year, after the one they delivered last week. We have five in the UK. We're also getting there in the US, but the US is still lacking in terms of rate hikes priced for the coming, say, 12, 15 months. And it rhymes very well with what I've been saying, essentially for the past month or so. Expect the Fed to be a lot less aggressive than other central banks in this kind of environment. And again, that sort of backs up the weak dollar thesis. And I think a weak dollar is basically what we need here, both from a liquidity standpoint,

• 28:53Speaker 01

  but it also helps sort of alleviate some of the concerns in markets if we get a truly weaker dollar. So again, I actually, and you know, those could be my famous last words, but you know, given everything that happened this weekend, and I also tweeted this late yesterday, I mean, everyone expects an apocalypse today because of this, and it, you know, we're down a percent. So it's not that bad, right? And, you know, some of the short dollar proxies are even up. I mean, Bitcoin is up $1,000.

• 29:24Speaker 00

  It is. It is. Yeah. So not completely, I have to say, Andreas, I'm already getting really tired of that P Doom gauge there, that entire concept. I'm getting sick of that. If you believe in doom, you shouldn't be listening to this. You should be having a lot more fun than listening to a macro podcast. So anyway.

• 29:44Speaker 01

  Miguel, let me just stress this as the final remark of this show. Do not listen to a word of what these AI executives are telling you. They're all bullshitting, and they have so bad incentive structures that I'm almost puking. So don't listen to it. Instead, look at the data, look at the underlying fundamentals, and keep focusing on your analysis, because all of the noise from these AI executives, I'm done with it.

• 30:11Speaker 00

  Yeah, absolutely. That's all we had for you this week, guys. Remember to like the channel, like the show, and like the show, subscribe to the channel. That's what I tried to say. We hope to get this out to as many people as possible. Check into our coverage of the FOMC meeting at 3:30 Eastern on Wednesday. And if nothing else, we'll see you next Monday.

• 30:33Speaker 02

  You obviously enjoyed the episode because you're here with me at the end. But listen, don't forget to go to realvision.com/join and grab a free membership. It's an incredible community packed with alpha, great investment ideas, and the research that you need to help you unfuck your future. So get started now. Go to realvision.com/join.