Why Bitcoin Still Can’t Catch a Bid?| Trading The Markets w/ Kris Bullock & Bijan Maleki

Bijan Maleki and Kris Bullock kick off today’s Trading the Markets with a fresh macro rundown, from liquidity and rates to the broader market backdrop. Kris explains why macro still matters for crypto. Then they turn to bitcoin, where price action remains under pressure and traders are still searching for the next real catalyst. They’ll cover the key charts, the altcoins showing relative strength, and the headlines driving sentiment across crypto. Let Monarch do your financial 'spring cleaning' for you! Use code REALVISION at Monarch.com to get your first year half off at just $50. Today’s sponsor is Plus500 US. Take your trading to the next level with cross-market contracts, from precious metals to key indices, and more. Whether you’re a seasoned trader in the Futures arena or brand new, Plus500’s user-friendly trading platform offers you the advanced tools, market insights, and quick execution you’ve been looking for. Get started with Plus500 for as little as $100 at https://us.plus500.com. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss. 🔥 Our Biggest Sale Ever, Don't Miss the Generational Setup realvision.com/pricing Have a question for Kris? Join the live show every Monday at 1pm ET in the RV Discord. Register here: https://discord.gg/FTQsrUhD9Z. Moderated by Bijan Maleki. Timestamps: 00:00 - Monarch Sponsor 01:00 - Trading the Markets: Bitcoin, Macro & Crypto Charts 03:17 - Financial Conditions, Liquidity & the Dollar 07:30 - Bitcoin Breakdown: Bearish or Just More Chop? 11:20 - Strong Dollar, ETF Outflows & Bitcoin Pressure 15:36 - The Clarity Act: What Delays Mean for Crypto 17:33 - Hyperliquid, Venice & Crypto’s Strongest Charts 21:15 - Near, Aerodrome & Where Relative Strength Remains 25:24 - Solana vs Ethereum, Sui & XRP: Which Major Looks Best? 36:31 - Circle, Stablecoins & Why Coinbase May Be the Better Play 44:56 - Coinbase vs Bitcoin: Which Is the Better Investment? 46:57 - Canton Network Breakdown & Crypto Watchlist 49:02 - Is a Black Swan Event the Final Bitcoin Buying Opportunity? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

• 0:06Speaker 00

  Happy Wednesday, everyone. You just caught Chris trying to tinker with his new keyboard, new mouse on the way. That is what lifestyle chips look like. Welcome to our weekly TA show, Trading the Markets. This is the show where we go over the charts. We look at what's happening in the world of crypto and technical analysis to see what we can sift through. And we're back, guys, and the market is slightly up, slightly down, who knows these days, but we're going to talk about all of it. But before we do, head over to realvision.com/pricing

• 0:47Speaker 00

  for your generational setup. Right now, we're running memberships up to 70% off, so $14 per month for connect, which gets you access to Chris's AI portfolio, Chris's crypto portfolio, Joe Bland's macro portfolio, as well as our live shows and reports that come to you monthly. And alpha, $49 a month, and you can get pro for $249 per month. So head over to realvision.com/pricing. Just so you know, we have a lot of stuff coming, especially by the end of this month, a lot of new dashboards, and something really, really

• 1:28Speaker 00

  cool, if you ask me about it in the Discord, I may tell you. But until then, you'll just have to wait. Chris, happy Wednesday. How's it going?

• 1:38Speaker 01

  It's going well. I actually did a really good TA interview with Wrecked Capital earlier this morning for the pro tier, and that was a lot of fun. So I'm primed to talk about Bitcoin and everything else that's going on. And yeah, looking forward to it.

• 1:52Speaker 00

  Yeah, definitely looking forward to it, I guess, a little bit. Right before we started the show, Bitcoin was at 60,000, or a little bit above. And then I made a comment, and then it fell below 60,000. So I'm just not going to comment on it. I'll leave that to you. But I know you wanted to look at kind of the macro setup and seeing what's going on before we dive into Bitcoin. So why don't you take it away?

• 2:16Speaker 01

  Yeah. Yeah. So I wanted to start with macro, because I had, I made all these cool new macro conditions indicators. And so I wanted to just go back and do a brief run through of all of that, talk about how things have evolved over the past week. Conditions have started to loosen a little bit and are potentially trending in the right direction. So I thought that that would be a good starting point. And then, yeah, we'll get into Bitcoin. And I'm going to spend a fair bit of time using the trading alpha indicator suite, because I haven't been using it on the shows as much lately. And so I was looking at it this morning, and I was like, yeah, I think I need to give this one some love, because it's a solid setup.

• 2:57Speaker 01

  And so we'll go through the watch list and sort of look at crypto through that lens and talk about what we see. But let's start with macro. So last week, I don't know where we were last week at this point, but Mac, like, global liquidity was still chunking down, basically. Let me turn on my cursor here. It was, it was doing this big ugly downtrend. And I don't know which button. Okay, nope. New keyboard. Sorry, bear with me. One of these will make this highlighter work. Anyway, it was, it pivoted here, it bottomed. But it doesn't look like it's showing a lot of strength. It's like, yeah, it's a bounce. Of course, the dollar, you know, conversely bounced at the same level as they're inversely correlated.

• 3:42Speaker 01

  So it was interesting to see that. But the dollar is still showing a fair bit of strength. I mean, it really only bounced off of its 10-day moving average and is kind of bumping right back up there. And then if you look at like, the rate of change for the liquidity, which are these, you know, colored squiggly lines here, basically, these top three are the monthly, yearly, I'm sorry, three-month, six-month, and yearly rates of change. You can see they're all still pretty heavily pointed to the downside. It's really only the monthly rate of change that has bottomed and bounced back up, which sort of, of course, aligns with this, this short-term bounce we're seeing here. So on a monthly level, rate of change liquidity has bounced. But on the other, you know, higher timeframes,

• 4:24Speaker 01

  still very much pointed to the downside. So we are still firmly in a liquidity contraction. And we're only seeing a potential, potential slight bounce there. So not, not great. But if we look at everything else, the VIX has settled down, which I think is good. It was hovering up in the low 20s, and that was causing the, the stock markets in particular to go batty over the last, you know, couple of weeks. And it's sort of come back down to its, you know, kind of more boring level, around 15, 16, which is good. And then if we look at the risk framework, credit spreads have remained stable. I want to talk about

• 5:05Speaker 01

  real rates, though. Real rates have leveled off. Like, they were really tightening, they were really getting constrictive. But over the last week, they've stabilized a bit, just like liquidity has stabilized a bit. So that's starting to, well, stabilize, which is causing the rest of the market to stabilize. But this one is kind of an impulse indicator of that, of that one we just looked at a second ago. And this also, we can see, has rounded over and is starting to cool off. And I'd like to see this, even just pick up a little bit of momentum of the downside. It doesn't even need to flip green or go below this line. As long as it just keeps trending to the downside, that's going to indicate that markets are going a little bit more into a risk-on posture. And so that will be bullish

• 5:48Speaker 01

  for me. So I'm looking for some continuation on this line here. And then finally, this is like, the whole risk, or financial conditions index. And we can see here that it's slightly less bad than it was last week. So the whole point here, things are easing slightly. They're trending towards easing. They're not like, good. They're not like, risk on, but they're, they're less bad than they were. So they're moving in the right direction. They're still tight. But that's helpful to see. So I think that that's the big overarching kind of theme I want to start with. And then let's get into Bitcoin specifically.

• 6:30Speaker 01

  So it's interesting with Bitcoin. Let me actually look at it on the daily here first. So on the daily,

• 6:40Speaker 01

  well, it's funny. It broke down, this was the, yesterday was the first day that it actually closed below this big support resistance line. Like, we had had several WIXs down below it, but it would always come back up and close above it. And then yesterday had finally closed, closed below it. But then today, well, up until a little bit ago, it had fully engulfed yesterday's downward candle, and it was back up above it. And it still is back up above the line now. And we do have a decent bullish divergence flag here, a four flag. And we've still got a slight bullish divergence on the RSI. But it's, it's lost a little bit of its speed. It actually got rejected off the 10-day moving average. It waked up to it perfectly, and then is back down off of it a bit. So it remains to

• 7:21Speaker 01

  be seen if it's actually going to close below this line. Like, if it closes below this line, that's not a great look, obviously. But then at the same time, I keep talking about September, October timeframe, and how we're just going to see a bunch of chop between now and then anyway. So it's like, does it, does it really matter, I suppose, whether it does or doesn't? And then if we kind of zoom out to the weekly timeframe, same deal. Last week, we got a WIC below the line, but it still managed to close it right at the line. And then, of course, it opened this week, right on the line, wicked way down below it again, and is back up above it at the moment. So on a weekly timeframe, we're still holding the line, even though we've got multiple WIXs below it. We still do have this, I mean,

• 8:05Speaker 01

  you can call it a bullish divergence a little bit, but it's lost a lot of its strength that it had. Like, earlier, it was more like this, and now it's kind of like this. It's like, technically, yeah, it's still a bullish divergence a little bit. But we're starting to see some pretty decent continued momentum to the downside that's pushing this RSI lower and lower even still. So my thesis still stands with Bitcoin. I still think we're gonna, we're gonna see a lot of chop for a ways still. I still think there's a real possibility we get down into the 50s. And I still, you know, patience remains the name of the game with Bitcoins. So, and with the rest of crypto, for that matter. That said, there are a handful that are doing well. And so, yeah, I wanted to go through the

• 8:50Speaker 01

  watch list using this trading alpha suite indicator that I use. It's funny, I talk about it a fair bit, but like I said, I just haven't looked at it that much in recent, recent history. So let's start with Bitcoin. We did have a bottoming flag signal pop here. But in order for this to be like confirmed, validated, whatever, one of the next two candles has to close above the highest point of this, of this signal flag. And right now, that's not the case. It did WIC above it, but it's back down below it. So either this candle needs to close above it, or the net tomorrow's candle needs to close above it, for this to be sort of a confirmed bottom signal. Otherwise, it's just noise, really. So that's what we're

• 9:32Speaker 01

  looking, that's what we're looking at with Bitcoin. Also, ugly track line, really pointed heavily to the downside, really remains red. This has all the hallmark signals of a, of a downtrend, basically. I mean, it's red candles, red dots, which are showing that there's continued momentum to the downside, which I just spoke about with the RSI. And then, of course, the red track line, too, with a pretty heavy, you know, downward trajectory. So, yeah, Bitcoin doesn't look awesome on the daily, on the weekly, I mean, just as bad. It's, you know, red candles, red dots, red track line, all of the above. Not great. So, yeah, I'm going to pause there for a second, let Bijan interject, and then I can

• 10:14Speaker 01

  go through the rest of the alt sector. But that's kind of one of the, where I wanted to focus.

• 10:19Speaker 00

  So we've been seeing a lot of, like, we've been seeing a lot of headlines and news about the dollar strengthening, right? And then I think just recently, it had, can't remember, like, historically where it fell, but like, Japan basically hit a new low, or the Japan yen hit a new low against the dollar. How is that impacting what you're seeing in terms of how it relates to crypto?

• 10:45Speaker 00

  Because like typically stronger dollar means like, you know, less risk, less risk on, right? But it seems like Bitcoin is not tanking as maybe as much as I thought with, with what a stronger dollar headline might, might reflect, but what are you seeing?

• 11:00Speaker 01

  It's definitely not showing a lot of strength. I think the stronger dollar really impacts things like Bitcoin, things like gold, you know, non-yield-bearing, non-revenue generating assets, like, you know, store of value type assets. Those are the ones that tend to be the most heavily impacted by this. And, and they are. I mean, stocks are continuing to do well, particularly tech stocks, particularly AI stocks that have the, the capex that are driving them, um, that aren't really as subject to the, the whims of the dollar strength. They've got money coming in, they've got order backlogs, revenues, all, all of that stuff. So they kind of operate on their own. But when you look at something like Bitcoin or gold, where there's not a company, there's no yield, there's no revenue, there's no, it's just like, it's just gonna, it's almost like it's gonna move directly inverse with

• 11:43Speaker 01

  the dollar, because obviously if the dollar value goes up, naturally Bitcoin is worth fewer dollars, just by virtue of the dollar going up itself, you know? And so, um, yeah, it's, it's directly inversely correlated, like I said. So that's kind of what we're seeing here. Um, obviously, the rest of crypto largely falls in line with that, but of course, we know there are exceptions. We know there are a handful of crypto assets that are generating money, that are, you know, doing actual, real, real stuff. And so, not that Bitcoin isn't, but you know what I mean? There's, there's, there's a difference between like hyper liquid and Bitcoin in that sense. And, and so that's kind of what I'm talking about. Um, pretty ugly, it's also kind of exemplified with Bitcoin in particular, with

• 12:26Speaker 01

  the, the ETFs, like TradFi is really selling off. For the first time since this chart was created, we have ETFs dipping below, uh, like, the, the total volume of, of Bitcoin held in ETFs dipped below the total number of Bitcoin held in, in treasuries and Dats, um, which is a bit ugly. That's, and it really, uh, the, the ETF level is at the lowest it's been in about a year. Like, it gave up essentially a whole year's worth of gains, um, from an ETF standpoint. It's, in terms of total aggregate, you know, institutional held BTC, it's a little better off because, again, because Dats have continued to increase, uh, strategy has continued to buy Bitcoin, and so it's only, you know, given up, um,

• 13:11Speaker 01

  a few months' worth of price action. But, but yeah, ETFs, man, people are, institutions are selling Bitcoin ETFs big time, and it's, it's, uh, it's rapidly dwindling. I think that that will be contained, but it's just, um, emblematic of, of where we are right now. So, anyway, getting back to this.

• 13:30Speaker 00

  At least that reconciles though, or makes sense to where we're at right now, because before it was like, you know, record ETF inflows, right? Um, and all of this, like, overall weakening dollar, you know, inflation rising, all of this overall bullish macro environment, but we didn't see that in the price. But now, when we see a, a strengthening dollar, right, ETF outflows, now the price actually starts to make a little bit more sense as opposed to that. I'm not really making a point, just more so that at least it, it finally is making a little more sense than where we were like a few months ago.

• 14:05Speaker 01

  I agree. Um, it's probably not a bad thing to see institutional or TradFi investors kind of capitulating a little bit too. I mean, that sort of also just falls in line with the general bottoming pattern, you know, bottoming phase of the, of the bear market. And, um, I think that that's not a good thing, but it's sort of, again, one of the, yet another checkbox that needs to happen in order for the bottom to ultimately be in kind of thing. So, um, yeah.

• 14:36Speaker 00

  And you add to that, that, uh, you know, reportedly that, uh, the Clarity Act is essentially being punted into 2027 now, um, which just adds, you know, further uncertainty, if you will. And my friend Matt, the markets hate uncertainty more than negative news.

• 14:55Speaker 01

  Yeah, I'm really iffy on the Clarity Act. Um, there's, it's, it's very much a, a coin flip that it's gonna pass this year. And it's like, if it doesn't pass this year, I don't know what that means for next year. You know, there's, there's even more uncertainty at that point. Um, it still is possible, it's still is possible that it could pass, but it's got a tough road ahead. And then I wanna, I, I wanna also reiterate too, I've said this a few different times in the Discord, but even if it does pass, which we need it to pass, but even if it does pass, that doesn't automatically mean there's this instant influx of liquidity, there's this instant catalyst to rocket Bitcoin into a new bull market, you know, that, the Clarity Act passing isn't suddenly gonna give retail a bunch

• 15:38Speaker 01

  of extra money to go buy Bitcoin. Um, it's not gonna, you know, if anything, it's just gonna give TradFi, it's gonna create a more investable environment for institutions to participate in crypto. But that doesn't automatically mean that on day one, it's just gonna go to the moon. So keep that in mind. If it, you know, if it passes, that's not necessarily gonna be the savior that flips us into an extended months-long bull market right out of the gate, you know? So I guess just keep your expectations in check there. But also we need it, you know, at the same time. So, um, we'll, we'll, you know, we'll see.

• 16:16Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 16:17Speaker 00

  All right. Well, let's, uh, before we got off on that little tangent, you were, you were talking about how there are, um, other assets though, that are showing strength, right? Regardless of this environment. I think you were about to go into, um, what those were.

• 16:33Speaker 01

  Yeah. There's a handful. I mean, it's a lot of the, it's a lot of the regulars that, that I talk about. I'm gonna, I'll start with hyper liquid. We can see, hyper liquid, obviously a very different picture than what we were just looking at with Bitcoin. However, um, it's not as rosy as it once was. I mean, clearly, it's, it's changed the, you know, we were in the steady green uptrend up until, uh, the beginning of June. We corrected, we had a nice bounce, we actually did poke a slightly higher high later in June, but, um, obviously, you know, the indicator has changed. We flipped from green to red, so the trend is now to the downside. I would argue the trend is very sort of neutral in this sense. We've got a, a yellow track line, which is a neutral signal. We've got no dots,

• 17:16Speaker 01

  which is also a neutral signal. So, um, it is red, I'll, you know, I'll count that against it. But like, to me, this is just, it's plotting sideways. We're seeing a bit of a volatility compression, a volatility squeeze, and, um, we're just sort of waiting for the next catalyst. So this isn't necessarily bad. The fact that it's still above its track line, I think is a solid positive. The fact that the track line itself is not pointed downwards is also a solid positive. So I take, again, I just take away from, from hype right now, just a very sort of neutral, neutral signal, which is better than still most of crypto. So I'll take a neutral signal over a outright negative signal all day

• 17:58Speaker 01

  long. Um, and if we look at Venice, it's funny, Venice is like, slightly nuanced in a, in a slightly worse fashion, but, um, it's still green candles. But arguably though, this is in, in part to do with, um, it's a newer chart. Well, actually, no, I take that back. Forget that. Um, it, it has, it actually has red dots, even though it has green candles, it has red dots, which is telling me that it's actually building momentum to the downside. Though unlike, um, the more sort of neutrality signal we were getting from hyper liquid, we're actually getting some momentum building to the downside. Like, these, these red dots are often very much a precursor to a change from green candles

• 18:40Speaker 01

  to red candles. And the fact that it's below its track line, whereas hyper liquid was still above its track line, um, and it's been in a neutral state for a longer period of time than hyper liquid, uh, is, is a little bit concerning. Now, however, there was a good headline today that came out from Venice. Uh, they, they, uh, had a new funding round. I don't remember exactly, they, you know, they were deemed to have a billion-dollar valuation, and they, they, um, generated like 20 or 30 million in, in new funding investments. So that's good. Obviously, that's good for Venice. Um, I don't think Venice is going anywhere long-term. I think what we're seeing really here is more just sort of short-term. This is, you know, it, it ran for a while. It, it's been one of the

• 19:23Speaker 01

  better performers for several months now, and it probably just needed to cool off, and it's cooling off a little bit more than hyper liquid was. But, um, still very strong, uh, and still sort of in that very, very small category of crypto assets that are, you know, gonna be solid revenue generating, um, sort of assets that break out of the, the crypto sphere, you know, that, um, yeah.

• 19:49Speaker 00

  While we're on Venice, real quick, if you guys want more on Venice's background, uh, Raul did a episode, I think it just, it was just two weeks ago, a journeyman episode, Derek Voorhees, who is the founder of Venice. Very insightful, very cool stuff to hear, like, kind of how he thought about it when he created it. Uh, definitely check that out. If you just want some background knowledge on, on how Venice started and, and where they're looking to go.

• 20:12Speaker 01

  Yes, definitely.

• 20:13Speaker 00

  Go ahead.

• 20:15Speaker 01

  I wanted to, I wanted to touch on Near because it has been doing well and it's, it's sort of come back to earth a bit here. So, like I said, you know, it had broken out, it was showing a lot of strength. You can see that this is what I talk about. When we start to see these red dots being a precursor, this is what I mean. When these red dots show up, this means that whatever the trend is, it's losing steam. It's, it's waning and it's, you know, should they continue, it's gonna, it's gonna flip the whole trend red. And it, sure enough, it did. So, um, once it started breaking down below the track line, the track line flipped neutral. Um, we flipped from green dots to red dots. Now we're in a full-on downtrend, basically. This, this uptrend that Near was in, um, is, is well and

• 20:56Speaker 01

  truly over, uh, for the time being. I don't, I'm not gonna say forever, but for the moment, it's in a downtrend. It has reversed. Um, and this, like this arrow here, this downward arrow indicates that it's building steam. You know, again, it's below its track line. It's got all the, the fundamental characteristics of a trend reversal and a downtrend. So, right now, Near is, uh, risk off for me. Near is like, I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna go there. I, you know, I think it ran a bit on some narrative. Um, and yes, it's got the fundamentals. It, it's still got the cool stuff that it's doing with, um, the agent side of things and building out that framework, but it's, it doesn't have the adoption to support the, the narrative. So, yes, while it's

• 21:38Speaker 01

  doing cool stuff, um, it still needs more real world adoption to fully sustain a rally like this. And that's what we're not seeing yet. So, um, Near, in other words, Near just remains a speculative asset. Um, it's a good one, but it's still just speculative. And so what we're seeing here is speculative price action and people are taking profits after this big rally. And, um, it's just gonna kind of move based on, on, on buzz right now. Um, so just, I guess, know that with Near. And really, that goes for almost all of these to some degree or another. Um, another one, Arrow. We talk about Aerodrome a fair bit. Um, Aerodrome, if you don't know, is the, uh, DEX that runs on

• 22:20Speaker 01

  the base, uh, base chain, the layer, the ETH layer two, the base, um, that has been partnered with Coinbase and operates as the sort of de facto backend, DeFi backend for trading DeFi on the Coinbase platform. So, they're directly tied in with Coinbase, which is gonna always continue to sustain them. Um, they look good. They're above their track line, green candles. They've lost their green dots, but they're still neutral. So, um, nice, steady, solid, just, I guess, relative strength is what I would, how I would characterize this. Um, it's not, you know, rapid, uh, but it just looks good and, um, it's outpacing a lot of the other assets in the space. And it's, you know, it's in a good category, being DeFi. Um, it does accrue some value back to the token,

• 23:05Speaker 01

  not, not like the way, not to the degree that Hyperliquid does, but it's got good fundamentals. It's got good tokenomics. It's got, it's got all the stuff. So, I'm not surprised to see it doing well. Um, but just in this larger crypto market, I, I still, you know, hesitate to get too into any of these, to, to invest too heavily into any of these. But nevertheless, Arrow does look good right now and it is outpacing quite a bit. And then another one that popped up on, on here that kind of surprised me was useless. Um, yes, granted, it's red. It's been running up. Um, and it did have a breakdown, but it quickly shot back up, broke back up above its track line. And, uh, even though the candles flipped red, it's still, it's got green dots, meaning it's,

• 23:50Speaker 01

  you know, again, on the verge of potentially flipping back green again. So, it's a neutral-ish signal, but it too, like, um, you know, like Arrow, is showing relative strength compared to a lot of the rest of the crypto market. So, um, yeah, I mean, it, it looks good. Those are the handful that kind of took me by surprise. Um, I definitely want to go through the, the big majors, your, your Ethereum, your Solana and Sui and XRP and all those and, and kind of just show you where those are at too. But, um, there's not a lot that looks good at the moment, honestly. So, so, yeah.

• 24:24Speaker 00

  Yeah, yeah, definitely. Let's take a look at those majors because, um, it kind of leads, segues into a question I have for you about them in particular, right? Like, so basically, does it give you like a little confidence, reason for optimism when you see things like Solana, like when Bitcoin is, is on, is going up, right? That you see the Solanas and the Sui's of the world going up more than Bitcoin? Does that give you a reason for optimism? Or like, how do you kind of think about that?

• 24:57Speaker 02

  So, a quick break in your regular programming. If you're serious about your future, grab my free report called Prepare for 2030. I think you've got five years to make as much money as possible, and this guide will help you navigate what's coming. The link is in the description. Download it now.

• 25:14Speaker 01

  Um, well, I think, I mean, first of all, they're not outpacing Bitcoin, at least in this, in this moment. So, they're, to me, it's more just, I think we're gonna see all of these majors be pretty anemic, you know, for the next three, three-plus months. I, I really am not expecting anything. Um, if I was gonna get into any of them, I, like I said, I keep saying, be patient. Only DCA, don't think you need to pile into any of these, especially if you see like a big wick down or a big candle down. Don't think that that's like, I gotta, I gotta go all in right now. Like, it's just patience remains the name of the game here. Uh, so, but let's look at each one of them individually and we'll see if there's some more, more to talk about there.

• 25:57Speaker 01

  I want to start with Bitcoin Cash, actually, because it's, I, the reason it's, I laugh at this, but Bitcoin Cash actually outpaced Bitcoin quite a bit last year. Like it, most people don't even really realize that, but it outpaced Bitcoin for most of last year, um, just totally under the radar. And then it had a huge drawdown here, oh, just in May. Um, but it's kind of rounded back up. And we're starting to see signs of a reversal. We had a bottoming candle, uh, trigger here, and then we had a reversal candle trigger here, both of which were confirmed, uh, by the subsequent candle, uh, closing higher than both of these. And now we've kind of got to see, um, the, the dots went away on the, on the red side, and we've got our first green dot on, on here. So,

• 26:42Speaker 01

  and we can see the RSI has rounded back up over. So, this looks like a pretty decent, just technical bottoming pattern with Bitcoin Cash on the daily. Um, obviously, it's still pretty ugly, but it, it was showing some resilience, I guess you could say, uh, and showing some signs of the bottom being in, uh, at least in the short term. I don't know what that means in terms of over the next three to four months, but it was a technical change that caught my eye and I wanted to call it out. Um, moving on to Ethereum. I mean, Ethereum doesn't look as good, even just as Bitcoin Cash did a second ago. Like Bitcoin Cash, nice, solid rounding up pattern, you know? Uh, we're seeing the, the red dots disappear, the green dots reappear. If we compare this to ETH

• 27:23Speaker 01

  now, um, you know, yeah, it had a bounce, but it's just kind of red, red, red across the board. No real bottoming signals or reversal signals. The only two that showed up were immediately invalidated. Um, just not a lot of strength here. Like, we've had the first candle with, with, uh, the red dot disappearing, but still, just really steep trajectory on the track line, very red, kind of very ugly looking with ETH, honestly. Uh, and then moving on to Solana, we can see Solana's a little bit of a different picture here, all, all of a sudden, quite a bit different, in fact. Solana has managed to poke above its track line. Track line is now green. Um, three green dots in a row. We've got our first green candle and we've got a, um, well,

• 28:04Speaker 01

  it's funny, this is a reversal signal to the upside that was kind of invalidated immediately by a subsequent higher, higher high. So, and the RSI looks much, much stronger too. So, right now, Solana, of, of the ones that I've looked at so far of the majors, Solana is showing quite a bit of strength comparatively. Um, you know, back above its track line is pretty significant and, uh, three green dots and green candle. So, right now, it's technically ticking all the boxes. Green candle, green dot, green track line. Um, you know, the only thing we need to see next is some, some additional closes above the line, uh, and we need to see the line itself, you know, rotate back to the upside. But Solana's looking pretty good. Now, to be fair, it's kind of done

• 28:46Speaker 01

  this a couple of times here. I mean, we had a poke above it here and it broke back down. We had a poke above it here that broke back down too. So, we'll see, we'll see how it plays out, but it's had a, a habit here of showing decent relative strength compared to the other major. Um, moving on to Sui.

• 29:06Speaker 01

  Unfortunately, Sui doesn't look as good. Sui looks a lot like Ethereum, uh, in that it's actually very much like Ethereum, in fact. Um, you know, kind of all the signatures, red, red, red, red, red across the board. Uh, we did have a reversal signal here that did not get confirmed. So, we've had some noise here in terms of bottoming slash reversal signals, but they're just not, not really holding up. They're still proving to be just kind of noise, uh, thus far. We do have a nice bullish divergence on the RSI, so this tells us at least that the downward pressure is waning some, but that's about all we have to go on here with Sui, um, at the moment. And that's unfortunately not, not a ton. So, um, looking at Tron. Tron's kind of had a nasty,

• 29:51Speaker 01

  nasty correction too. Uh, we know Tron has been generally stronger than most, but, um, it, you know, rolled up and then reversed and kind of ran right back down to its lows again. So, um, I'm not sure what's going on there, but Tron's, Tron's risk off at the moment across the board. And then XRP, XRP continues to look pretty ugly too. Like, XRP, um, it's, I, it's actually setting lower lows. It actually looks worse than Ethereum, uh, and Solana and Sui. It's continuing to set lower lows and it's almost gaining strength to the downside. So, XRP, um, not a great look, honestly, at the moment.

• 30:33Speaker 01

  And then the same thing with BNB.

• 30:36Speaker 00

  I'm sorry, Dan.

• 30:37Speaker 01

  Yeah, BNB too. Not as bad as XRP. Like, it's largely been holding its sideways range, but it is starting to break down out of it to the downside, which actually is a little bit better than maybe even ETH and Sui, but

• 30:52Speaker 01

  and we've got, you know, we've got some exhaustion here. We've got a D-Mark 9 and a potential bullish, bullish divergence. So we'll see how this goes, but it's still early days as far as that. So yeah, the majors, like I said, my, my bigger point, the majors are all looking pretty weak right now. Outside of Solana showing perhaps the most relative strength across the, the top 10. Well, not including, not counting Hype.

• 31:18Speaker 01

  Yeah, I, I think it's really, in terms of the top 10, we're looking at Hype, obviously, as the most, as the strongest, and then Solana being a distant second still, I would say, to, to Hyperliquid. I mean, it's, yes, it looks okay, but it definitely is not showing anywhere near the strength that, that Hyperliquid is.

• 31:38Speaker 00

  Yeah, I think we're seeing that Solana look okay because very, like, very recently, I think even just like as of this week, it's been a little resurgence in meme coins. Cause Ansum had a meme coin drop on Solana that just ripped as well. So I think that has a lot to do with what we're seeing there. And then some of the other meme coins got a bump off of that Ansum meme coin pump. Can we go back to the XRP chart really quickly? I just want to see what its current price is and how far we're off of the XRP all-time high.

• 32:13Speaker 01

  So, uh, current price is a dollar five, and then let's zoom out to the weekly.

• 32:21Speaker 01

  Oops. So, all-time high was, unless, actually, hold on, let me look at a, an older chart so I can get the whole price history here.

• 32:35Speaker 01

  Oh, right. Okay. I kind of remember this now. It's sort of double, double topped. So it peaked way back here in 2018. It peaked at high 331, and then here last year, three, oh, 365. Okay. So this was the true all-time high, uh, this, this past year. So, yeah, 365. So we're down, uh, let's see exactly how far.

• 33:02Speaker 01

  At the moment, we're down 72% off the, off the high.

• 33:05Speaker 00

  It's not, I mean, it's not great, obviously, but, um,

• 33:08Speaker 01

  Right.

• 33:10Speaker 00

  Okay. Yeah, I wanted to just get on record my theory that XRP is absolutely going to have a VC pump at some point. I don't know when it is, but I feel like they always do. So

• 33:22Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 33:23Speaker 00

  Just getting that, just getting that on record and when it happens.

• 33:28Speaker 01

  I'm curious.

• 33:28Speaker 00

  Okay, Chris. Sorry, go ahead.

• 33:30Speaker 01

  Hold on, I want to look at something just real quick with XRP.

• 33:38Speaker 01

  Okay, it's kind of lost that. So I, I've, I've spoken quite a bit. Hold on, this is the wrong chart to look at this with real quick.

• 33:49Speaker 01

  I've spoken quite a bit how, uh, the, the XRP Bitcoin price would always get up to like this level here, this big red line that I had denoted. And I remember way back when it first did, you know, in kind of the end of November, uh, I kept shouting out, saying, this has proven to be really strong resistance, uh, for the XRP Bitcoin ratio for going back several years. And in the end, that held true, that held to be, that ended up being the same and proved out this time around. So,

• 34:23Speaker 01

  yeah, when it gets up in this range, you know, it's probably time to, to, to rotate out of XRP. And at least back into Bitcoin or back into whatever. But, uh, it, it has not significantly broken out of this range. I mean, really since 2017, you know, and it blew way up out of it. Held above it for a long time, but then ever since it lost that range, uh, in the bear market in 2019, it has never, uh, materially broken out of this ratio ever since then. So, um, and that held true again this cycle.

• 34:57Speaker 00

  All right. Uh, question from Jordan on the water. Are we still SPX fans?

• 35:06Speaker 01

  Yes. SPX is, uh, continuing to be relevant. Uh, they're continuing to make videos. They're continuing to have in-person meetups. Uh, Murad still talks about it. There's lots of regular podcasts about it. I don't know if I want to pull up the chart.

• 35:25Speaker 00

  He knows what he's doing. He knows what he's trying to get you into.

• 35:30Speaker 01

  I, I'll just say it's showing, it's showing solid relative strength. It's still in the conversation. If you want to look at a chart, you can go get a chart on your own. But, uh, it, yes, it is relevant. Uh, we are still SPX fans.

• 35:45Speaker 01

  It hasn't lost any of its mojo.

• 35:48Speaker 00

  Can we take a look at the Circle chart? I know it's not, you know, it is technically crypto, but yeah, they had that news come out about what the open USD, uh, stablecoin and basically showing that Circle wasn't going to be minting, um, basically the new supply of stablecoins. And Circle has,

• 36:11Speaker 00

  since corrected, but I wanted to get your take on, uh, on the chart.

• 36:16Speaker 01

  So here's, here it is on the weekly, looking at it through this indicator. We can, we can see that it, you know, isn't going well. Um, we had, you know, it was holding, it was holding up for a while. We started to get green, I'm sorry, we started to get red dots, which as, as I keep saying, is a precursor to a larger trend reversal. It was building momentum to the downside. And then finally, just this, this very week, for the first time in Circle's history in this indicator, we now have a red candle, uh, on the weekly. So that's, that's how Circle is going, uh, as far as this goes. Let's look at it on the daily.

• 36:55Speaker 01

  Yeah, I mean, it's, it's broken down. So like it, it held, it set a support level here that it has now broken down through. It tried to set a bottoming signal. It actually did close above it. So it did confirm this bottom signal, but then kind of immediately broke back down, uh, just a few days later and broke through it. So now we're, we're firmly entrenched in, in downtrend territory at this point. It's, you know, red, red track line, red dots, red candles. Um, we do have a, a reversal flag poking up at the moment, but I don't know, given the weekly, I don't, I don't have a ton of confidence in that. So, yeah, I mean, Circle, not a, not, not great right now. I, I,

• 37:36Speaker 01

  it, it, Circle's tricky as an investment for me because it really is just so entrenched in, in the whims of, of crypto, you know, it's like, and it's hard because like I really, as a narrative, I, you know, I wanted a way to invest in stablecoins because stablecoins are, as we know, one of the few really solid product market fits with blockchain technology that have emerged since, since its sort of inception. And so, and I always thought, man, if I could just invest in stablecoins, you know, we'd all be rich because that's where there's so much money in there. There's so much revenue in there. And yet you look at the price of Circle and it's just, it's like, it's stuck in this sort of meme coin

• 38:20Speaker 01

  narrative, you know, cycle, unfortunately, where it's like, it doesn't really matter how much money they're making. It's just the chart, the chart's all over the map. And so it's like, as, as Bitcoin does, so too does Circle. And I don't know that that's actually fair because, again, we know that this is a very viable business model and it's doing well. So, yeah, I don't know. I, I don't know what to make of that, unfortunately.

• 38:49Speaker 00

  Yeah, Jordan had a great question about how this could impact Coinbase's price, right? Because Coinbase are famously involved with Circle. But it's interesting because Coinbase, they are one of the major backers of this open USD stablecoin as well. So now I'm thinking, is Coinbase the, the play for your exposure into stablecoins?

• 39:18Speaker 01

  Well, and that's a good point, and it might be. Um, I mean, to be fair, Coin is a better looking chart. Actually, I'm curious, let's compare, compare the two.

• 39:32Speaker 01

  Oops, I don't think that's the right.

• 39:42Speaker 01

  Oh no, that's right. Okay. So yeah, um, well, yeah, I mean, it's kind of been regaining some ground. Uh, Coinbase has largely outperformed it. It did go on a dip here. Uh, you know, at the beginning of the year, but I think it's kind of recovered that clearly and it's, it's trending back up again. The weekly track line has trended back up. So Coin, Coinbase has been the better chart, the better stock to hold, the better investment, I guess.

• 40:10Speaker 01

  And yeah, I think, like you said, I think that, um, maybe it is the better play in terms of stablecoin exposure. Uh, I mean, there's a lot more going on. Obviously Coinbase has a ton of different revenue streams. So it's not a pure stablecoin play like Circle is. And I don't know how much you can factor that into this chart because I mean, they're making money. Like I said, all over the map from all kinds of different things, from institutional holdings, from ETFs, um, from treasury, you know, yields from, from Circle, from just trading fees from retail, um, from custody of all, all kinds, staking.

• 40:47Speaker 00

  Within your frame, it's making more, honestly.

• 40:51Speaker 01

  I know. I mean, they've got, they've got loads of revenue streams, uh, for sure. And they're very diversified. And they're doing a good job at being diversified. And so, you know, props to them for that. And that's probably reflected in the price here.

• 41:04Speaker 00

  Did you say aerodrome as well?

• 41:06Speaker 01

  Aerodrome as well.

• 41:09Speaker 01

  And, and base chain, I mean, also, so like, you know, they, they, all of that stuff. So,

• 41:16Speaker 01

  yeah, I mean, and what are they off the, how far down are they? Sort of 25 off the peak? I mean, well, they peaked actually in July, but let's see how far down they've come. Probably not that far.

• 41:30Speaker 01

  Well, 66%, not as bad as Bitcoin, uh, still not great, but, um,

• 41:37Speaker 01

  yeah. So I don't know, is coin the, the, the lower volatility way to have exposure to the crypto market? I don't know. If, if a 66% drawdown is, you're fine with that in terms of low volatility, then, then sure, I guess go for it. But, um, yeah, I don't know.

• 41:59Speaker 00

  Obviously they're so heavily tied to the crypto market. So they are going to, they experience the same pains as crypto will. But like on the upside, when crypto starts taking up, the fact that they've added so many different revenue streams. Um, and now that they're in the back, now that they're like all, they have their hands all over the stablecoin ecosystem between Circle, now Open USD, and then just capturing everything that goes on on their platform anyway. I can't help but think they're like

• 42:26Speaker 00

  Corning of the crypto world.

• 42:29Speaker 00

  Am I crazy?

• 42:29Speaker 01

  You're not wrong. No, not at all. I think that makes total sense. Uh, they, you know, they, they, they're in every sort of aspect of crypto. Um, and, and pretty soon they're going to be trading, uh, perps, you know, you'll be able to trade perps on crypto.

• 42:44Speaker 00

  Prediction markets.

• 42:45Speaker 01

  Yeah, prediction markets too. So they've got their hands in everything and, um, you know, I, like you said, as crypto does, so too does Coinbase. Uh, plus, I mean, of course too, you know, I'm sure that a large reason why this stock is down at the moment has to do with the fact that there's so much less trading volume going on right now. There's way less retail trading going on right now than there was, you know, later, later last year in all of 2025. So, um, that's reflected in the price too. Obviously the revenues is going, the revenues are going to move as the crypto cycle moves. So they're a boom and bust stock in that sense. Uh, having their diversified revenue streams will help mute that volatility somewhat, but, um, it's still gonna,

• 43:30Speaker 01

  no matter what, it's going to be subject to the, the boom and bust cycle of, of crypto. So, um, yeah. I don't know where we're going with that, but yeah.

• 43:42Speaker 00

  Well, well, just where, where we're going now is like me personally, after today, I'm adding coin, coin to my watch list in general, um, of things that I might look to be adding once, uh, once I feel a little more confident on the uptick. Uh, I, I really like it, especially with that stablecoin exposure, aerodrome, base and all their other revenue streams. Uh, it seems pretty attractive to me.

• 44:07Speaker 01

  So here's a

• 44:08Speaker 00

  Obviously not right now, it's down 60% and crypto is, you know, not doing so good, but yeah.

• 44:13Speaker 01

  Here is a Coinbase Bitcoin chart.

• 44:17Speaker 01

  Which is, I think, interesting to look at too. Uh, it's largely been sideways.

• 44:23Speaker 01

  Uh, with Bitcoin really since 2022. I mean, it, it started out a little bit higher, it lost some steam and it's been a, a higher beta to Bitcoin itself ever since then. It's just kind of oscillated up and down, but it's largely tracked sideways. So, I don't know, are you then better off just holding Bitcoin? I, I'm not sure. I guess it, it depends on which, which sort of world you want to operate in, whether you want to be crypto native or, or TradFi native, but I don't know. This will be interesting to see what happens when, you know, we have a breakout, but to be fair, you know, I mean, all of 2023 and 2024, when Bitcoin was making the bulk of its gains in this,

• 45:07Speaker 01

  in this sort of four-year cycle that we're in, um, coin largely held pace with it in terms of its, its percentage gains. So,

• 45:17Speaker 01

  I don't know. It's interesting.

• 45:20Speaker 00

  But also coin didn't have, though, they've added additional revenue streams since then. So maybe we'll see something, you know, a little bit better. I'm interested in seeing how this plays out for sure now though.

• 45:33Speaker 01

  I agree with you. I think that's true. I think one thing, if you are going to do this, if anyone is going to do the coin play, make sure you are keeping an eye on the coin Bitcoin chart. So that you know, if you're actually better off holding coin and not just Bitcoin. So,

• 45:49Speaker 00

  Right. Well said. Yeah. Yeah. Uh, don't just go blindly guys. Uh, that's, we'll be charting it though, I think, uh, as well. Uh, cause I'm going to be very curious to see how Bitcoin or coin, uh, does going forward. Uh, Chris, is there anything else you like or anything, uh, else that's interesting you in the, in the world of crypto or otherwise?

• 46:14Speaker 01

  I mean, no. Okay. Let's talk about Canton. It, it had an interesting, uh, breakdown, which I wasn't, I wasn't kind of expecting because it had been sort of generally trending upwards and doing this sort of very, very shallow cup and handle pattern. And I thought maybe it was going to come back up and get back up to this sort of 20 cent level where it peaked last time. But it actually broke down. Um, it didn't get up there. And in fact, it broke down before it even got to this, this previous, uh, you know, high here. And now we've got a full-on trend reversal, basically on the daily timeframe. We've got, it went from full-on green to full-on red, you know, with all the, all the boxes. So like, I don't know what happened. I wasn't really paying attention to, to the behind the scenes with this, but

• 46:59Speaker 01

  as I was going through my watch list today, I did notice this because I've been kind of looking for a bit of a breakout here as like a potential entry and, um, we, we didn't get that. We got the opposite of that. So, uh, now I feel like I need to kind of dig in a little bit and see what actually happened here because this was a pretty big wick down, uh, that happened yesterday. In fact, it was, you know, at one point it was down, whatever, several percent. It, it only finished the day down a little over 2%, but, um, it was down quite a bit. So, um, something, something changed here and I don't know what it is.

• 47:34Speaker 00

  Well, that's, uh, stay tuned for next week and, uh, on next week's episode, we'll find out what it is.

• 47:43Speaker 00

  Chris, uh, it's been another great TA show. Um, we have some, we have some, you know, positives to take away from this, but, uh, I think, you know, just stay the course. Don't, don't go crazy on anything that goes, you know, super up or super down, right? Um, that's kind of what, what we're saying here. Uh, we'll be back on Monday for our, uh, world according to AI show, where we will talk some of the AI trades and we'll look at Corning as well. Uh, but until then, Chris, what do you have in the, don't fuck this up motto for us?

• 48:19Speaker 01

  So I will, I will leave you with this. It's kind of funny. Don't, don't read into it too much, but, uh, at the end of my interview with Rekt Capital earlier today, um, we were making the comment how it's interesting how kind of at the peaks and the, and the, the bottoms of each, you know, bull market and bear market, we got this, we got some wild, crazy breakdown event, you know, or like a black swan type event. I remember, if you remember in October, we had the, the breakdown. Do you remember at the end of the 2022 bear market, we had FTX collapse? And, uh, his comment was just that, you know, as we get to these extremes in the both, in the markets, whether it's to the high or to the downside, it generally can sometimes serve as a mechanical catalyst for a black swan event that

• 49:04Speaker 01

  produces the final capitulation. And so, he then was like, that said, we haven't had one yet. We may be due for a black swan event to happen in the next one to four months.

• 49:18Speaker 01

  That sort of cements the final low of this, of this bear market. And so, um, it, it play out, uh, it would be consistent with the previous cycles for that to be the case. Maybe we'll be lucky this time and we don't get that, but it was just an interesting observation that he made and, uh, yeah, maybe we got a black swan to look forward to here for, uh, uh, you know, the one final fire sale. Then it'll be time to go all in and, and load up your bags and get it as cheap as you can. Um, and that's all it's going to be. If, if it is, think about it as a buying opportunity, not as a doom and gloom, you know, nuclear event or anything like that. So maybe it's not the end of the world necessarily.

• 50:00Speaker 01

  Obviously we don't want some company to implode all at FTX and take a bunch of people's money with it. That would be terrible. I'm not, I'm not advocating for that, but we'll see. Maybe it's something to do with Michael Saylor. Who knows?

• 50:16Speaker 00

  Oh God.

• 50:16Speaker 01

  There we go. I'll leave you with that.

• 50:21Speaker 00

  All right, guys.

• 50:24Speaker 00

  Before we get anything else, that's going to, you know, make us nervous. We're going to end here. Uh, have a great week, everyone. Enjoy the World Cup matches. We're starting the round of 32. Don't fuck this up until Monday. Have a great week.

• 50:39Speaker 02

  You obviously enjoyed the episode because you're here with me at the end. But listen, don't forget to go to realvision.com/join and grab a free membership. It's an incredible community packed with alpha, great investment ideas and the research that you need to help you unfuck your future. So get started now. Go to realvision.com/join.