Why Did the Iran War Restart? | Macro Mondays, July 13, 2026

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back with the latest Macro Mondays to discuss the latest escalation in the Middle East and what the impact might be; a slowdown in Korean chip exports and what it tells us about the health of the AI trade; and a worrying new trend in the U. S.-China rivalry. Monarch is the personal finance app that tracks everything – accounts, investments, savings, and spending. Use code REALVISION at Monarch.com to get your first year half off at just $50. Today’s sponsor is Plus500 US. Take your trading to the next level with cross-market contracts, from precious metals to key indices, and more. Whether you’re a seasoned trader in the Futures arena or brand new, Plus500’s user-friendly trading platform offers you the advanced tools, market insights, and quick execution you’ve been looking for. Get started with Plus500 for as little as $100 at https://us.plus500.com. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

• 0:00Speaker 00

  Summertime is maybe good, summertime is maybe shit.

• 0:29Speaker 01

  Andreas, before I get to ask you about the elephant in the room behind you, let's start with the other elephant. Do we need to worry about oil again? I thought the war was over.

• 0:48Speaker 00

  Well, I don't think you should ask me that question, whether the war is over. I think I've called it over like three or four times. But I actually don't think the oil math looks that bad compared to, say, March or April. So I'm not worried as we speak, but of course we cannot live with a closed rate for the rest of the year. So it depends on your time horizon, Mikkel. That's the long answer to the short question.

• 1:13Speaker 01

  And what's the big trade you're looking at right now, Andreas?

• 1:17Speaker 00

  I think the big trade that everybody's looking at is the memory stocks. You know, we've had bizarre volatility on Friday and on Monday here again in some of the names that everybody's involved in. So, you know, I think we're approaching a point where it looks incredibly tempting to buy the dip here in memory.

• 1:37Speaker 01

  Absolutely. We'll dive much more into this, including a look ahead at the prints this week. And all the news that we're going to be getting on the inflation picture, they're obviously heavily influenced by oil. Remember, this is our free show on Real Vision that is published across platforms. We publish a number of articles and exclusive shows on Real Vision as well. So do check out your options on realvision.com for even more content, including Andreas, your oil flash update. We will be digging a little bit into it, but if you want the full picture, the full analysis and all, you need to sign up for Real Vision's Proche for that. Andreas, let's dive straight into it.

• 2:20Speaker 01

  We had this message from Donald Trump just an hour and a half ago, I think, that Donald Trump wants to, wants the US to run Hormuz. And we're essentially in a position, Andreas, where the past, for the past week or so, we've had increasing attacks from both sides, leading up to the point where Donald Trump, first of all, declared the ceasefire for over, initiated heavy attacks on the IRGC over the weekend. And we didn't really get any Hobium, Andreas. We didn't really get any talk about returning to the negotiation table. And now there's news that the US wants to run the Strait of Hormuz. Now, let's start with geopolitics here, Andreas.

• 3:02Speaker 01

  I wrote a piece last week, and you can check it out on Real Vision, on why we got to this point, why the US miscalculated in the memorandum of understanding. It's actually, there are some logic steps you can follow, game theory wise, as to why the Iranian Republican Guard ended up essentially disrupting the memoranding and the peace process. But now we're at this point, Andreas, the US wants to run the Strait of Hormuz. I don't know what that means. How do you run a block of water? Do you run the coastlines on each side? Possibly. Do you take some of the islands within? Do you blockade it naval? We don't know. In any case, this speaks to further disturbances to the flow of oil.

• 3:46Speaker 01

  How do you gauge the market reaction to all this, Andreas? And have we seen the worst yet?

• 3:53Speaker 00

  Yeah, I mean, if we look at the oil price live, we're not even above Thursday's peak. So, I mean, it's not that bad. And speaking of the flow, I mean, we're not talking about a closed straight, at least. I borrowed a chart from our good friend Rory Johnston, so a big shout out to him. He's really, really good follow when it comes to the flows in and out of the Strait of Hormuz. And it's been clear to me for a while that the flow was better than reported everywhere, basically. So if you look at the left-hand side here, we have the west to east flow out of the Strait of Hormuz of tanker ships, right?

• 4:33Speaker 00

  And we had a lot of unaccounted dark transits, basically through June, most of July. We still have those, still waiting for the point where Donald Trump admits to Abu Dhabi being behind these dark transits, right? And I still think that it remains the case that the flow is actually okay-ish. I mean, there is at least the flow.

• 4:59Speaker 00

  Having said that, I think the, yeah, basically the beige bar here, the Umani route, is what triggered the response from the military side of the Iranian leadership. So the US effectively managed to create a transit together with the administration in Oman.

• 5:23Speaker 00

  It is now not used again. So, I mean, they have at least effectively managed to officially close that part with the attacks that they've made, the IRGC over the past days here. So, I mean, there is a flow. It is incredibly difficult to gauge it in real time. As I've said over and over, I think the best way of gauging it is to look at a lot of very technical price spreads in oil markets. I can show you a couple of them in just a second. But having said that, Mikkel, I don't think the market response points us in a direction where we should be overly worried about the oil flow,

• 6:03Speaker 00

  especially since, you know, we had a pretty massive flow out, say, over the first two weeks of this ceasefire. And those ships are basically in transit now, right? So we know that a lot of oil will arrive over the next four weeks, both in Asia and elsewhere.

• 6:22Speaker 00

  And if we look at the, you know, current setup, I've tried to, you know, calculate backwards, if you know what I mean, on page 14. How close are we to some sort of normalized oil flow out of the region? And my best assessment is that we lack 4 million barrels a day. Is that manageable for the US and China in cooperation? Well, they managed to fill a void of, say, 8 million barrels through April and May. So we're basically talking about half the damage of when it peaked.

• 6:59Speaker 00

  And we still have time, but, you know, we're still using strategic reserves, both in China and in the US, to fill this gap. And there is obviously an end date to such a policy mix, right? So having said that, that end date is not anywhere near. We're talking three, four, five months from here. So there's still time.

• 7:21Speaker 01

  And, you know, that is the true long-term picture of this, Andreas, because the, obviously, the Iranians, the Republican Guard, essentially, especially, they're, they're, they're really trying to push their leverage on this. They feel like this is their chip to both make a lot of money, but obviously also to secure their position in the future. But there's a limit to how much they can push this. We've discussed this a lot, Andreas. And not only are they pushing the patience of the Americans, they're also pushing the patience of China. And the rest of the world has learned by now how to address this. So if the straight gets closed, yes, it's a problem. We know how to fix it. China just stops buying oil. And in the future, we're going to have a lot more ways to fix this.

• 8:04Speaker 01

  We already heard talks about the US investing massively in shortcuts around or in alternative routes to get both oil and other commodities out of the Gulf, Andreas. So so far, not overly worried, it seems to be. Also, you know, Andreas, once we hit $100 in oil, if we get there, people begin to get very, very, very creative. And that's not even accounted for here.

• 8:29Speaker 00

  No, but I, you know, my best guess would be that we won't even get close to $100 again. I think the equilibrium right now is probably 80. And having said that, Mikkel, the issue is not oil. The issue is products. So, you know, jet fuel, diesel, et cetera. We're talking about a situation where we've managed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz on oil, but we haven't managed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz on jet fuel, right, products? Because we cannot move the refiners. And that's still an issue. We're talking record-high crack spreads in the US because refiners have moved marginal capacities of jet fuel instead of gasoline and diesel, et cetera, right?

• 9:14Speaker 00

  So it's still an issue that the straight is closed, especially when it comes to the consumer inflation. Because as long as the straight is closed, you cannot pass on the full price disinflation from the barrels of oil because of a lack of refiners capacity, basically.

• 9:32Speaker 01

  No, I have a feeling, Andreas, looking at the numbers in your analysis, that we were getting very, very close to the price of the pump finally dropping. And now it's probably been postponed a few weeks at least here. I'm not overly confident that we're going to have an improvement on the political situation here. But the fallout from market seems to be, to be a little bit more compressed this time around, not perhaps as dramatic as we saw earlier this year. But, Andreas, let's have a look at inflation. Obviously, we have inflation rates coming out this week, the big prints.

• 10:09Speaker 01

  We've talked a lot about your expectation that inflation will roll over. We're seeing it in our now casting. Will we get evidence of that already now? Or do we need to wait another month for this to kick in?

• 10:22Speaker 00

  So if we look at the June inflation from Europe to begin with, we already have some evidence from Europe a couple of weeks back, and it looked pretty benign outside of energy. And so it wasn't really an energy story that surprised the market. And my best guess, you know, we run our nowcasting across all of the soft categories in the inflation index, is that we get a pretty soft report. Broadly speaking, it's not an energy story. Of course, it's partially an energy story, but it's not a standalone story. And my best guess is that we get a report that prints 0.2 percentage points below the consensus tomorrow, which should be a pretty big deal, especially given the chart that you just put on the screen here,

• 11:04Speaker 00

  Michael, right? Because we had the FOMC meeting minutes out, was it Wednesday or Thursday last week? And it was probably the most hawkish message from the Federal Reserve since 2022, where they had this hiking cycle, right? So a lot of members are clearly concerned about the inflation outlook, but it's still an outlook thing. If the outlook improves, then my best guess is that they'll wait and see. So, you know, I cannot put enough emphasis on this inflation report. If it prints soft, it should massively reprise the front end of the curve in the US, because everyone is so concerned about inflation within that committee.

• 11:49Speaker 00

  So they'll probably change their mind if inflation comes down, right? It's not like they've changed their reaction function. They've changed their outlook, and that outlook is probably wrong, if you ask me. So I see it more as a forecasting error than a policy error, if that makes sense.

• 12:03Speaker 01

  Yeah, a matter of time lag of when these reports are sampled and counted together. Okay, Andreas, so we had the last print at 4.2%, consensus around 3.9%. What's your bet to make this very, very specific, so we can hold you up on this next week?

• 12:17Speaker 00

  3.7 for headline and 2.7 for core. So yeah, it's a little bit less than 0.2% points below consensus. A big surprise in case we're right.

• 12:29Speaker 01

  An ice cold print, if that's what we're about to get. Very interesting, Andreas. Maybe the Iran story still, the restart sort of of the war in Iran, maybe that gives Kevin Walsh a bit more breathing space before the pressure mounts on him to begin a new cutting season. I still think the political pressure will emerge at some point, but right now, obviously, he has the best excuse of them all, which is disturbances to oil and the energy market, Andreas. So very interesting.

• 12:59Speaker 02

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• 13:15Speaker 01

  Let's get to a few of our laughs of the week. We like to throw in a few of them on the show, Andreas. First of all, you posted this picture. You sent it to me yesterday, because we've been talking a lot about AC this year. Obviously, we're both living in Europe, and we're living in the part of Europe where it's only really hot for a few weeks every year. But it's been exceptionally hot this year, and a lot of Europeans have been traveling to the US for the World Cup and experiencing what AC is. It's like they've crossed the river into Mania and seen what's over there. And you seem to be really enjoying your AC down in France, Andreas. How's it working out?

• 13:54Speaker 00

  Yeah, I just posted this picture because when I started talking about a lack of AC in Copenhagen, you know, my inbox was full of these, oh, you're just a Europe or messages, right? And this is a heat pump slash an AC in the house here in France. So it is possible here in Europe. I just wanted to confirm that. It's from just outside. So we can't actually figure stuff out here. It's not, it's actually, I think you put it very well when we had this discussion on AC here in Europe, Michael, that it's actually because the demand hasn't really been there to large extended Northern Europe, that, you know,

• 14:39Speaker 00

  the solutions are not pretty good, right? So in that sense, I guess it's a matter of time before enough people will demand AC for us to get there, but let's see.

• 14:54Speaker 01

  Absolutely, Andreas. Just to confirm all the notions about Europe, I went to an open house on a house builder over the weekend. I asked them about what's it going to take here in Denmark to build complete AC covered house? Not going to happen. If you apply for permit to build, that is just going to be turned down. So still a bit of work to do here in the north of Europe, but happy to hear that you're enjoying it, Andreas. And I know you've been enjoying this chart as well, the complete K curve of hyperscalers and semiconductor companies that's really making rounds on Twitter right now, and really got you agitated from the pool side there, Andreas. What are we looking at here?

• 15:38Speaker 00

  Well, I think the chart is pretty interesting in itself, right? You know, hyperscalers are spending all of their free cash flows to buy semiconductors. That is essentially the story of 2026. It was possibly the story of 2025 as well, and I think it will be the story of 2027 as well. The guy here, Puro, is a decent fund manager, but he's a part of the very vocal crowd right now, admittedly, sort of having the upper hand in price action on these things at the moment, calling for mean reversing, say this cannot continue. Fair enough. And then he explicitly states that you should never buy cyclicals, in this case semiconductor companies, around peak earnings. And I'm

• 16:23Speaker 00

  like, should you ever buy anything around peak earnings, right? It's like, water is wet, that statement. Having said that, Michael.

• 16:30Speaker 01

  Don't buy the peak. That's, yeah.

• 16:33Speaker 00

  No shit, Sherlock, right? But having said that, the discussion is not whether to buy a cyclical at peak or not. I mean, that's just the silly part of that discussion. The discussion is whether we've peaked or not, or whether this will continue to accelerate. And I simply don't see anything that points in the direction that we've peaked. If you look at the underlying spot price of semiconductors, for example, we're still accelerating. If you look, it's on page 22. So even since we've got the updates from Micron, Hynix, et cetera, we're probably up another 20% or so. And one of the smaller players, Taiwanese

• 17:14Speaker 00

  semiconductor player, last week was quoted for saying that they expected the big players within that space to hike prices 30 to 40% in Q3. And I mean, that's certainly not discounted. If you look at the forward earnings, most market participants expect the semiconductor companies to peak in Q1 next year, something like that. So that's the discussion. Will the cycle run for longer than Q1 next year? If you look at the communication from the hyperscalers, it will run far further. If you look at the communication from Hynix, for example, itself, they say we basically have a solid orders book until 2031. So I

• 17:58Speaker 00

  mean, there's a huge divergence between what most of these bearish PMs currently expect and what the companies involved in this free cash flow transfer from hyperscalers to semiconductors say about it, because they communicate that 2027 will be wilder, way wilder than 2026. So I'm of the view that, you know, we're currently in a setback for a lot of momentum trades, basically all of the trades that have worked so far this year.

• 18:31Speaker 00

  But it's very driven by this shock from the policy slash forecasting era from the Federal Reserve earlier in June. You know, we've had higher dollar real rates for a while. A lot of people are a little bit scared whether we'll get interest rate hikes, et cetera, right? So if we get that off the table again, then I think people will start staring at these spot prices for memory chips once again and conclude that we're far from we're far from peaking. My best guess is that we peak maybe late 2027, early 2028, if I should give a guess right now. But there's just nothing pointing to peak right now if you look at the underlying price trends.

• 19:10Speaker 01

  Interesting, Andreas. We're obviously covering that in a lot of our publications on Real Vision, if you want to dive into all these charts and even more on that. Let's go to your favorite number, Andreas, the export numbers out of South Korea. People love it when we bring this on, also because it's such a high-frequency number. Are we seeing a rollover right now?

• 19:32Speaker 00

  Well, we've had that from the first 10 days of July, and it looks a little weaker than June. June was extraordinary on all scales. We had the results from TSMC early this morning, also showing that June was probably the most bizarre month in financial history in terms of exports of everything semiconductor-related. So sure, are we seeing a slight rollover in July? Yeah, but is it a big surprise? I mean, half of the globe is on vacation. I mean, I'd like to see more to state that this is a chart that rolls over. But obviously, it's one of the charts that we have to watch on a running basis here,

• 20:17Speaker 00

  because when this chart rolls over, the memory trade is done, we all know that. So again, the question here is whether we've peaked in terms of sales, in terms of earnings, in terms of margins, et cetera. The question is not whether the sector is cyclical or not. And you know, I wrote a long, long story on Friday on why memory is probably not as cyclical anymore. For those of you interested in that, I actually spent the time investigating, researching on the underlying trends hardware-wise, while Michael Burry and his crew, they just say mean reversion, mean reversion, mean reversion, mean reversion. They've said it two years in a row.

• 21:01Speaker 00

  I consider that analysis lazy, to be honest. And I've been stuck in a Twitter battle with Michael Burry for a while. At least I'm spending my vacation on something fruitful here, right? Am I?

• 21:16Speaker 01

  At least you're arguing with him and not your wife. That's a positive, Andreas.

• 21:19Speaker 00

  Oh, I've told her a lot of times during the past week that the memory trade has not peaked, so.

• 21:26Speaker 01

  That's good to hear, that's good to hear, Andreas. So just to compress this a bit, Andreas. Still confident about the inflation picture? We'll have to see what happens in the straight-up moves, if that can disrupt that. I'm sure it's going to be used as an excuse to postpone that, but still very bullish on the inflation picture, still bullish on the memory picture. The question we get a lot here, is it too late to enter the memory trade, Andreas?

• 21:54Speaker 00

  I get why it's difficult to enter it if you haven't been in it. I get that, especially since the momentum trade has really suffered for two weeks running. So I'm not speaking from a strong position right now, because my book is suffering. I have to admit to that. Again, I cannot put it more transparently than what I do. I think everything, spot-wise, points in the direction of a further acceleration of prices. To me, that's still strong evidence that there is more to go on these trades. And I don't consider the memory trade to be as cyclical as it once was.

• 22:34Speaker 00

  So I have 9%, 10% of my portfolio in memory stock, something like that. If you include other semiconductor companies, we're past 25% of my portfolio. That is the most transparent way of saying it. I mean, I have my money in the trade, so I think it will go up.

• 22:56Speaker 01

  Looking ahead to next week, Andreas, that's also something we like to do in this show. Obviously, we're heavily focused on the CPI print. Any earnings, anything else to gauge the memory trade or other momentum that you're watching?

• 23:10Speaker 00

  So I mean, we got some numbers from TSMC, right? And we have the earnings season opening with all of the banks tomorrow, Tuesday, alongside the CPI, as you know, Citibank and Goldman and all of those. Then on Wednesday, we have our good friends in the Netherlands, the ASML, reporting. ASML is probably the only gauge you have in Europe on the AI momentum, right? More or less, but of course, an important global bellwether as well. Also, since they, you know, it's always tricky to figure out how much they're truly selling to Asia.

• 23:53Speaker 00

  And you know, they're always at risk of China getting hold of their technology and all of that. So I mean, there are kind of two sides to that report. Both will obviously look at the earnings trends, but we'll also look at the orders book and where it goes. And on top of that, you know, it's earnings season now, so you know, we cannot hide anymore. All of the discussions on whether we've peaked, I mean, we'll get the evidence over the coming month or two, right? So I'm, you know, the expectations are much higher than in Q1, but for good reasons. I still think that we'll see a beat across the board.

• 24:35Speaker 01

  Okay, Andreas, we have time for just one more topic that I know you're very, very anxious. It's a bit unfair to leave it to you with five minutes to go. But this is a chart we've been talking about a lot for the past few years. A basket of the most critical and strategic metals exports out of China, or US imports from China as a percentage of total imports.

• 24:57Speaker 01

  We had a few weeks back a seemingly positive, productive meeting in Beijing, Trump and Xi.

• 25:04Speaker 01

  There were talks of a trade ceasefire, a detalent even in the relations.

• 25:10Speaker 01

  What are you seeing in these markets, Andreas? Is the decoupling that we've had as a trading bed not working anymore as a consequence of this? What are you seeing?

• 25:22Speaker 00

  Well, quite clearly, a couple of the decoupling bets we had in our portfolio have suffered from this ceasefire. And you actually had that right at the time. I was a little bit more skeptical. But you know, sometimes markets, they trade off narratives instead of what's actually going on beneath the hood.

• 25:43Speaker 00

  The trade relationship is as frosty as it's ever been.

• 25:47Speaker 00

  And you know, every single data point points you in that direction, from the standpoint of making a conclusion. So this data is updated until 1st of June, so it lacks a little bit because it's export data. But you know, the three, four weeks that followed the ceasefire in Beijing basically didn't lead to any whatsoever reversal of that trade relationship. I know that the US will probably just buy these metals via third-party, right? It's not like, remember when we were all not allowed to trade with Russia all of a sudden because of the invasion, right? I mostly agreed with that conclusion, by the way.

• 26:31Speaker 00

  But in any case, we started trading with Russia via third-party countries, right? It's probably the same that happens here, right? That China sells these things to Malaysia or, you know, another party that holds good relationships with the US. So it's not like I'm overly scared of a scarcity within that space, but it still goes to show that the US needs to sort of retain control of its supply chain. And Europe, for that matter, we're just waiting for the US to do this for us. And nothing, nothing points in the direction of this trade relationship rebounding, nothing. I, you know, I think they had to sort of agree on a ceasefire

• 27:16Speaker 00

  because they had a common issue with the straight-up moves that they had to deal with.

• 27:22Speaker 00

  If we move on the other side of that straight-up moves issue, probably take a while, then this could probably resurface, right? But right now, and I'm very curious to hear your thoughts on that. It seems like both Xi and Trump agree that they have to, you know, take it a bit easy, given that they're both dependent on, you know, ensuring that the oil market is balanced. But I can assure you that the Chinese, they hold a pretty decent card if they start buying a lot of oil just before the midterms, right? Because they can move the needle now. They can really move the needle if they want to on oil prices ahead of that election date,

• 28:05Speaker 00

  which is something that they have to account for, that risk at the White House. I mean, I haven't really heard them talking about it, but probably since they were scared of talking about it.

• 28:15Speaker 01

  Yeah, absolutely. There's a limit to how much the US can do to counteract that. So I agree with you. It seems like the US and China found a common problem, and that's often what you need to get to terms and to set aside your crawls. But it's still right there underneath the surface. This is the big strategic rivalry. The big strategic problem is the dependence on China and especially these metals. So that decoupling bet is going nowhere. It's a long-term bet, but it's going nowhere. We're going to see, no matter who's elected in both the EU and the US, we're going to see enormous investments in solving this problem. The EU is finally getting to grips with this problem as well, has essentially taken over the Trump playbook, as we talked about a few weeks back.

• 29:01Speaker 01

  And yeah, maybe at some point, this will be the common problem that unites the EU and the US again. That's always been my idea, that both the EU and US have this problem in common. So why don't we work together on it instead of waging separate trade wars against China on and off? So yeah, maybe we'll see that in the coming years.

• 29:23Speaker 00

  Yeah, but Michael, one thing I'll add here, and that's basically the thing that we've been waiting for maybe, say, two, three, four weeks in a row, is that, you know, this trade, this decoupling trade in metals, it won't work as long as we have a strong dollar and as long as we have high energy costs. So you know, maybe the inflation report tomorrow is basically the timing to get into all of these metals trades. We started trading that theme a little bit last week, but we're, I mean, we're a bit cautious in terms of adding a lot to it until we see a weaker price action in the US dollar. And it basically requires a softer inflation picture and a turnaround of the current rhetoric from the Federal Reserve.

• 30:03Speaker 00

  And you know, this is one of the, you know, timings where it gets really tricky as a strategist and a PM, because our data is screaming in one direction, right? Inflation down, softer dollar, everything related to that.

• 30:24Speaker 00

  But those in charge, they haven't really acknowledged that, right? And we need them to acknowledge what our data is telling us for it to work. So you know, I'm an eager beaver, but I'm really trying to be patient here because we need Kevin Walsh to play ball before we can get into this short dollar trade and all of that. And I still think it's a little early, but we'll see tomorrow. Hopefully, the inflation report is sufficiently solved for this to gain some momentum.

• 30:50Speaker 01

  Yeah, you could argue that this is where you're supposed to be when you're doing your own data research, that you should be ahead of the official acknowledgement. But it's, sometimes it's a bit of a patience issue. But let's see what happens tomorrow, Andreas. Absolutely. Let's see what happens tomorrow and let's see where everything heads, Andreas. We're in for a very, very interesting July, no rest for the wicked here. Have a great final days of your journey to Corsica, Andreas. We will be back with a lot of content on Real Vision, even though you're down there, Andreas. We're still producing a lot of content on there. We have my weekly The Drill geopolitical article out on Wednesday. Later today, we have the Oil Flash article. And then we have our weekly portfolio update out on Friday as well.

• 31:35Speaker 01

  So lots of good stuff to look out for. That's all we had for you this week, but remember to tune into Macro Mondays every Monday, live on Real Vision X YouTube and wherever you might elsewhere find it. So thanks for today, see you next week.

• 31:51Speaker 02

  You obviously enjoyed the episode because you're here with me at the end. But listen, don't forget to go to realvision.com/join and grab a free membership. It's an incredible community packed with alpha, great investment ideas, and the research that you need to help you unfuck your future. So get started now, go to realvision.com/join.