Pod Insights Real Vision: Finance & Investing It’s Beginning To Look A Lot Like COVID! | Macro Mondays: May 11, 2026 About this episode Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down why today’s macro environment is starting to resemble 2021, from renewed concerns around the Hanta virus to rising input costs and supply chain pressures. Additionally, they assess the highly anticipated meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, and monitor the latest developments in peace talks for both Iran and Ukraine.🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Timestamps:01:07 - Why 2026 Is Starting to Look Like 202103:17 - Hantavirus, Covid Flashbacks, and Why Markets Should Ignore It06:30 - Easy Dollar Liquidity, SLR Reform, and the Return of Risk Appetite11:27 - Tomorrow’s CPI Report and the Next Inflation Wave13:29 - Iran, Oil, and Why Hormuz Is Fading as a Market Driver15:03 - Trump-Xi Meeting: The Underreported Macro Event of the Week17:30 - Best Portfolio Hedges for US-China Decoupling22:21 - Iran, Ukraine, China: Could Easing Geopolitics Extend the Rally?25:12 - End Consumer Scarcity: The New AI and Semiconductor Trade
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Transcript 0:00 Speaker 00 New week.
0:04 Speaker 00 Big moves.
0:08 Speaker 00 You ready? Andreas on the data, Michael on the flow. Turn the headline into trades you can know. From yields to inflation, every chart, every trend. Get the story, get the setup from the open to the end. They try to be as actionable and as honest as possible, but keep in mind that their predictions might be. Sometimes maybe good. Sometimes it's maybe good. Sometimes maybe shit. Sometimes it's maybe shit. Shit, shit, shit, shit, shit, shit, shit, shit, shit, shit. Sometimes it's maybe good, sometimes it's maybe shit. It's Macro Mondays, big picture.
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1:07 Speaker 01 Hello there, welcome to Real Vision, welcome to Macro Mondays. We have a great show for you today. We're going to be talking about why Andreas is reminiscing 2021 all of a sudden and whether we should worry or not about the antivirus. We're also going to touch upon the inflation numbers tomorrow, the Xi-Trump meeting and everything else that's going on. So a great show for you today. My name is Michael Rosenwald, your usual host. And as usual, I have with me Andres Dino. How are you doing, Andreas?
1:36 Speaker 02 Good, I'm not suffering from the antivirus yet at least, so.
1:40 Speaker 01 No, no, very happy to hear that, Andreas. We have a great show today. We're going to touch upon the antivirus, not too much, I promise you guys that, but a little bit, we've got to have some fun at least. Andreas, you're doing another show this Wednesday, I just wanted to plug. It's at 3:00 PM Eastern Time, the monthly State of the Union Show. I'm skipping it this time, but what can people expect from that if they're Proche subscribers at Real Vision?
2:03 Speaker 02 Yes, so we're going to look into the inflation wave, whether we should expect it to also slowly but surely filter through to other. Goods than than the energy basket of the consumer inflation basket, right? We'll have inflation out from the US tomorrow. Highly anticipated report and it probably won't look pretty. So we'll spend most of Wednesday's show looking into how this will pass through to everything from foreign exchange markets to interest rate markets to the whole macro picture across the globe. So a very important one to watch.
2:37 Speaker 01 Absolutely. On Thursday, we have Shooting the Ship with Roland Julien at 12:00 PM Eastern, noon Eastern. So lots of good stuff to look up, to look forward to if you are a subscriber at Real Vision. Remember, this is our weekly free show where we give you a sneak peek into our view on the world of macro. We have a bit of fun and we try and give you some ideas of how to navigate this crazy, crazy world of ours. Things are moving very, very fast. This is obviously the exponential time age. So remember that even though we try to be extremely actionable and accurate in our updates and our ideas, that things might be, sometimes it may be good, sometimes it may be shit.
3:17 Speaker 01 That's the way it is. Okay, Andreas, let's kick off with one of our rules. We have a lot of rules of thumb here on the show. One of them is the Fauci rule. And we've used that, we've mainly applied that to all analysts during 2026 here because, you know, Andreas, remembering back to the COVID days, you had a period of time towards the end of COVID where all of the experts were sort of clinging on to this sudden wave of attention that they had, including Mr. Fauci here. And to poke some fun at some of the all analysts, we've seen some of the same during the Iran war crisis. Some geopolitical analysts as well, I'm not afraid to take that. But now we're back in Fauci territory, in true Fauci territory.
4:01 Speaker 01 Dr. Fauci has been quoted for saying that it might be time to start wearing masks again and maintaining social distance. So how do you rate this, Andreas? What are the chances that we get into a new lockdown and all the turmoil that came after the last pandemic here, Andreas?
4:22 Speaker 02 So thanks for allowing me to don my inner armchair virologist here. It's not necessarily my area of expertise, to put it like that. Having said that, I think it is very unlikely that we'll enter lockdowns this time around. That would just put it like that. I basically think we should spend our time on other topics than the Hantavirus.
4:45 Speaker 02 For what I've been able to gather so far, you know,
4:50 Speaker 02 it's incredibly unlikely that this is going to spread fast between humans.
4:56 Speaker 02 And therefore, I think we have six confirmed cases on Earth. And I think the first case broke roughly 10 days ago now. So it's not like I'm scared of the exponentiality in what we've seen in terms of confirmed cases. It's obviously a very nasty virus. Also, given the empirical evidence that we've been able to gather so far. But let me just put it like this, and it could be my famous last words. I wouldn't spend a second discussing this from a macro or market perspective. And yeah, I probably should refrain from commenting on what Fauci said.
5:32 Speaker 01 Absolutely. I just want, I want to get in one thing, because we had a few questions during the week. What is the Hantavirus bet? Aside from Moderna doing 30% or so, you could probably guess that. The real sleeper bet lies here, Andreas. We've already here all across X that ivermectin is obviously the solution to Hantavirus as well. It's the solution to everything from, from a common cold to AIDS. Or I don't know, it's a, this is, this is a place where Europe and US is very, very different, Andreas. Because when I talk to Europeans, almost everyone laughs at this ivermectin stuff. In the US, it's quite big. I've been hearing about people building up stocks of ivermectin to combat whatever the next pandemic might be.
6:14 Speaker 01 So possibly not the worst bet of all to get into that. But, but it's, it's not part of our portfolio. Let's just leave it at that, Andreas. No. I've been poking a bit of fun also in the title of this show that is beginning to look a lot like COVID. It has nothing to do with the Hantavirus, to be honest, Andreas. It's much more to do with the outlook in US dollar liquidity and the macro outlook. So, so tell me, Andreas, why is it that you are reminiscing 2021 suddenly?
6:40 Speaker 02 So I mean, I actually had these thoughts about everything playing out right now, looking a lot like 2020, 2021, before we even heard about the hands of virus. So it was kind of an odd coincidence that we certainly had a virus to compare it to as well. But if we look at the setup right now, we have the so-called non-profitable bets in Wall Street, all of the, say, tech companies not making any substantial revenues or profits for that matter, yet outperforming stocks with incredible cash flows, for example.
7:23 Speaker 02 That's a thing we saw back in 2020, 2021 as well, with a lot of, you know, non-profitable bets outperforming classic value bets. And we've seen that to a large extent, especially over the past six weeks. We've seen signs of recycling of dollar liquidity to an extent that I haven't seen outside of, say, April, May of 2020, right at the peak of that panic QE during the first lockdown. And it is very related to this so-called ESLR reform, the supplementary leverage ratio
8:06 Speaker 02 reform, which basically allows banks to run more leverage without setting capital aside. What does that mean? Well, it basically means that they set aside a lot more balance sheets to low-risk transactions such as repurchase agreements in treasuries. Why is that important from a liquidity perspective? It's very, very important to watch repo trends as they basically tell you how easy it is to recycle the same dollar into more than one asset. Think of it this way, a repo transaction is basically a short-term borrowing transaction.
8:46 Speaker 02 I agree with the bank to post collateral, for example, a treasury, and in return for that treasury, I get short-term funding. I can then use that short-term funding to buy a new treasury. And then, again, same logic, I can use that treasury I just bought to borrow against in a repo transaction. So you can actually recycle the same dollar, albeit with a haircut every time. And, you know, the more balance sheet the banks set aside for this, the easier it is to buy a lot of treasuries with the same dollar. And we've seen an incredible increase in the repo transaction activities since this ESL reform.
9:30 Speaker 02 It was put in place around first of April. So I think this is, to some extent reminiscent of what happened during 2020. And therefore,
9:41 Speaker 02 you know, it reminds me of some of the mechanics of 2020. It's not like that we have a lockdown. It's not like that we have a,
9:49 Speaker 02 you know, a meaningful pandemic. I don't think we'll get one from the hands of virus either. But we have this cocktail of pretty, very easy access to money, paired with, you know, in my opinion, a very underappreciated re-acceleration of the US economy. We got another decently strong labor market report on Friday, right? It was the second consecutive strong report, which we haven't seen for a year or so. And it kind of goes against all of the doom saying that we've seen from energy pundits since first of March, right? That we see an acceleration now, but it rhymes very well with what we're observing and now casting. And at the same time, we have a Federal Reserve that is pretty reluctant to
10:32 Speaker 02 do anything about the inflation spike that we've seen that is pretty reluctant to, you know, tighten policy into the acceleration of the economy that we're seeing. So in that sense, we have this easy monetary policy relative to inflation that we also saw back in 2020, 2021. And it will probably end in an inflation wave, also in other goods than energy. But it may take, say, six to nine months from here for it to really show up in the US economy outside of energy.
11:02 Speaker 01 And that's a very interesting similarity, because back then you obviously had the the big inflation wave, especially hitting in twenty twenty one, especially into twenty twenty two, also came from sort of an exogenous shock. Back then, it was obviously the pandemic. Today, we might not have a pandemic right now, but we do have that exogenous inflation shock, or at least the expectation of it, from the Iran war, from oil prices. So let's maybe zoom in a little bit on that address. What do you expect from this inflation report? And how far along are we in that expected tsunami of inflation?
11:37 Speaker 02 So we'll probably see peak energy inflation in this report, at least unless things worsen in Iran, meaning that we'll we'll get relatively close to four percent in headline inflation. You know, I'm currently looking into the details, but probably between three point seven and three point eight in headline terms. Of course, again, very driven by energy this time around, but we're also starting to see some of the spillovers to the broader goods basket. For example, fertilizer prices are up a lot.
12:10 Speaker 01 We'll bring up the chart here, yeah.
12:12 Speaker 02 Slowly but surely, that's, you know, it is basically a pre-warning of what's going to happen to food prices, right? We know that there's a scarcity of fertilizer. I'm not the kind of pundit that expects that scarcity to show up in the West through actual shortages. I think we'll import the price increases and then leave some of the poorest emerging market countries without any supply. That's typically what happens. It's the cynical truth of the capitalistic world. So the whole notion that we'll see shortages is outright wrong, but we'll get some second order effects through prices, right? And we're going to
12:52 Speaker 02 see the first glimpse of that tomorrow. And I probably even underestimated rhetorically by calling it a glimpse, because it will be quite nasty, what we'll see tomorrow. But it is expected. I mean, it's not like it's it's not like it's a truth bomb that we'll suddenly see energy inflation tomorrow, right? Everyone's been at the pump over the past month, right? So we know what we're dealing with, and we also know
13:19 Speaker 03 What the solution is, it just doesn't seem like Trump and the Iranian regime are able to agree on that exact solution, right?
13:28 Speaker 01 No, let's dive a little bit into that, Andreas. We had less Monday hope, as you usually call it this week, mostly continued the bad news. I'm still struggling to understand, to be honest, the exact dynamics of what's going on, and especially the US strategy is a little bit bewildering for me. At the end of the day, it's not really driving markets anymore. Yes, we have the inflation wave, it's not going to be completely over until we get a solution to this. It seems like both parties have more or less on common ground in sort of containing the disagreements or limiting them to the nuclear question, sanctions, and then obviously the straight.
14:12 Speaker 01 And so, to some extent, we're back to square one. Before the war, they discussed sanctions and the nuclear question. Now we also have the Strait of Hormuz to tackle. So it is still a game of patience, essentially. We don't really see any signs of interventions or pressure from China, as you could have expected. They're just leaning back and letting this happen. The US is, I mean, yeah, you're going to have a hot inflation report, but again, Trump can live with that for a while. The Iranians are sort of trickling oil out, so no real pressure from either side, at least economically, financially, so this fiscally.
14:52 Speaker 01 Politically, it is becoming a little bit expensive for both sides, but yeah, not the biggest market driver, though.
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15:16 Speaker 01 What could be a big market driver in geopolitics this week? And it surprises me that it is so underreported still. It's the Trump Xi meeting. I know a lot of other stuff is going on. We're going to touch a little bit on Ukraine maybe in a moment. But um, Donald Trump is going to be Xi. Uh, that's a big thing. Um, it was the main uh, Trump economic driver or driver of the economy 2025, the trade war with China. Um, we've heard some reports of what's what's going to be agreed upon. It seems like a much more well-prepared meeting than a lot of the stuff that happened in 2025. And so I have my expectation. Um, my base case is that this is going to be a very, very smooth meeting.
15:59 Speaker 01 Uh, a smooth meeting means it's it's it's it's not a it's not a it's not a big market driver. There is always the potential that Trump decides to throw in a hand grenade uh uh into the meeting, blow everything up, start a new trade war. More likely, I think we will see an announcement of a board of trade, board of investment type of thing. Um, some sort of framework for dealing with with with with trade between these countries. There's been talk about naming it a G2 um, cooperation. So so crystallization that this is the the the driving relationship of the world right now. Um, and I mean, all that should be good for markets. I'm not, I don't believe we're going to get a big solution or rare earths or chips. So that's still going to be there.
16:42 Speaker 01 We may see some kicking the can down the road, some extensions of the the ceasefires that are running for for another six months. I don't think we're going to see any solutions, at least not publicly about these things, probably not about Taiwan either. We might get some wording that China is is sort of obligated to bring down their trade surplus, et cetera. But that's, that's just words. At the end of the day, um, my base case is a relatively smooth meeting, some some some good news and and a framework to discuss these things. And usually, as we've seen with other of these um, geopolitical tension points, that's all market needs. To know that things are being handled, to know that things are now in a bureaucratic process, that's going to ease markets a lot and it's going to take a lot of geopolitical
17:23 Speaker 01 risk out of this, in my opinion. So, so potentially very, very bullish case, in my opinion, or perhaps more of a slow bullish case from this, obviously with the potential that Trump decides to throw a hand grenade here. So, how do you view this from a portfolio standpoint? Should you prepare for this? Should you just await the news? So, what's your take here?
17:47 Speaker 02 So, I mean, practically speaking, what we've done is that, you know, we, we hold, I think roughly fifteen, sixteen percent of the portfolio in what I call decoupling bets. So, companies that thrive if the US and the Chinese economies drift further and further apart, which even with, you know, some sort of G2 high-level agreement is still what's ongoing on a trend basis.
18:15 Speaker 01 That's a stop.
18:16 Speaker 02 Yeah, and, and such, such companies will obviously do even better if they decide to throw hand grenades at each other, or whatever you labeled it. So, one example is obviously companies working with bringing the supply chain of rare earths back home to, to the West. You know, there are a couple of obvious choices there. I think a couple of the, you know, domestically focused solar companies in the US are very valuable assets in a portfolio, given the situation between the two big powers of the world. They've, by the way, been doing very well for us, these solar bets over the past, say, six, nine months. And solar is still incredibly cheap relative to some of the other power
19:01 Speaker 02 sources that we've seen on a tier, basically, since two thousand twenty-five to two thousand twenty-four and onwards, like nuclear fuel cells and stuff like that. So, I think solar is a good US-China bet. I think rare earth supply chain bets are still very valuable. Then, of course, you have this whole notion that, you know, the, the risk of decoupling between the US and the Chinese economies also, you know, increases the arts of global south central banks accumulating metals. That story has been.
19:41 Speaker 02 Put to bed a little bit due to the Iran war, but it's not over.
19:46 Speaker 02 Flow wise, we saw a very nasty march for metals accumulation. We saw a rebound in the accumulation of metals in April. And I suspect that we're seeing a resumption of that trend through May here as well. And these metals have stabilized. And I even went as far as tweeting, I think it was on Friday, that actually looks like we could get another silver rally here, even though I've been more of a foe than a friend for the silver community since New Year, so.
20:20 Speaker 01 Love made relationship, yeah.
20:21 Speaker 02 Yes, exactly.
20:23 Speaker 01 Without the love.
20:24 Speaker 02 Yeah, without the, ah, to some extent, I mean, they've called me fat and retarded over and over. That's a bit of love, isn't it?
20:31 Speaker 01 Tough love, mate.
20:32 Speaker 02 So having said that, I think, you know, from, in sort of a priority ranked order, rare earth bets probably serve as the best hedge against what's ongoing between Trump and Xi. And then solar is the second, then broader metals and mining bets probably also work.
20:50 Speaker 01 Yeah, yeah, I mean, some of these bets could take a bit of a tumble if we get good news out of the summit. Still very, very valuable bets for the long term. So, so I mean, that's, that's probably my, my bottom line here.
21:03 Speaker 02 Yeah, and you know, I agree with that, but
21:08 Speaker 02 well, back, turn back time, is it six, seven months back in October, when this official communication came out from China that they were going to implement sort of a licensed regime for everything related to their rare earths, right? If, if you had any, you know, traceable
21:29 Speaker 02 just mist of rare earth in your product stemming from China, you would have to report that directly to the CCP, right? Or the Communist Party.
21:41 Speaker 02 You cannot make a U-turn from that.
21:45 Speaker 01 No.
21:46 Speaker 02 Strategically, as soon as you've weaponized that to the extent that the Chinese were willing to last year, you can no longer be counted as a supplier of any sort of loyalty over time. And I think that is crystal clear to everyone involved in this supply chain in the US now. And therefore, no matter what they agree upon, I still think this Warp Speed operation to bring some of these supply chains back home is fully intact on a trade basis.
22:16 Speaker 01 But I mean, and just zooming out a little bit here, 12 months ago, or even during the fall of last year, we were talking about this continued increase of tariffs against China, 200%, 250%, 300%, we were just throwing new numbers at each other, even talk about the E-word, the embargo word, a trade war. We haven't heard a lot about that. The tariffs are getting outlawed one by one. And whenever we talk to institutional investors, there still seems to be a lot of fear that the global trade could be disrupted, etc. I have a feeling that this is gonna lower the geopolitical risks, combined with what we're seeing in Iran and Ukraine. And you can argue that these are problems that Trump made for himself. But again, if these problems are more or less solved towards the summer, should be
23:01 Speaker 01 fuel for the rally, in my opinion. We're not gonna be diving too deeply into the Ukraine stuff. I'm gonna write more on that on Wednesday in my The Driller article for the Proche subscribers here. But we are hearing very, very good news, especially also for the Russian side. We have had that before, but it sounds like both parties are more willing to talk now. And I mean, if you get a solution in Iran, a solution in Ukraine, a solution on the trade war with China, that should be fuel to this rally, Andres.
23:32 Speaker 02 Yeah, it should. And I'm just trying to look up my trading account here because I'm a little bit interested in how things are evolving today. But you're right. And
23:46 Speaker 02 My my gut feeling is a lot better around the prospects of of getting a peace deal in Ukraine than it's than it's ever been. And I explicitly refer to my gut feeling here because, you know, what tangible tangible evidence do I have, right? But rhetorically,
24:07 Speaker 02 Putin has certainly softened.
24:11 Speaker 02 And Ukraine is no longer in a in a position where they can just,
24:18 Speaker 02 you know, relentlessly deny any negotiations around their territory. I mean, they don't have
24:27 Speaker 02 the the backing from the US on on the armory anymore. So I mean, that's obviously a big thing when you look, you know, nine, 12, 15 months ahead. So the the cynical analyst in me tells me that there is a window of opportunity here in terms of striking a deal, but we'll have to see.
24:45 Speaker 01 Yeah. Again, the the investment angle here is to be ready to invest in Ukraine whenever we get a peace deal, because that is going to be a rally. There are going to be lots of opportunities, also a lot of volatility probably in that. But but obviously, a country coming out of such such a massive war can have a lot of possibilities. So we'll we'll dig a little bit into that on on Wednesday by the drill article and possibly touch upon that in future shows if we indeed do get closer to to a peace in in Ukraine. I just wanted to end off the show, Andreas, with a little bit of fatigue or or putting some words into a new thematic that we've put into the the the model portfolio that we run, because we've obviously talked a lot about both electricity bets, semiconductor bets, photonic bets, all the the AI bottlenecks.
25:30 Speaker 01 But we've essentially gone one step further in the thought line here and introduced a thematic that we're calling end consumer scarcity. And just early in the show, you told me there weren't gonna be gonna be any scarcities on on energy. So so what on earth are we talking about here?
25:47 Speaker 02 I made a sketch, I think it was during the first couple of weeks of the war on page 16 on, you know, how how long does it take for, you know, various production lines of semiconductors to?
26:04 Speaker 02 Be faced with disruptions in the so-called no helium supply scenario. Helium gas is used to cool wafers, so. And by the way, Qatar is probably the biggest exporter in the world of helium gas. Many of the new production lines, those used in the semiconductors for AI and data centers, they basically more or less recycle the whole helium gas supply. So it's not really a biggie for them. But some of the oldest production lines, for example, MOSFETs for cars, so the power chips and stuff like that, stuff you put in your mobile or in your laptop. They'll be hit earlier by some of these constraints.
26:45 Speaker 02 And on top of this, which is a very ongoing issue, we've seen that within the memory chip space. You know, all of the demand is is moving towards AI. Meaning that there's a way for catalyseation ongoing from lower margin production lines towards those with high margins used in data centers, right? And therefore, for example, in memory, we've seen a much smaller production capacity set aside for some of the old DRAM memory chips that you use in various consumer electronics.
27:28 Speaker 02 And it's that they've obviously focused on servicing that massive demand for memory in the data center space. We're seeing some of the same signs out of the power space now that you're basically redirecting capacity in the production lines towards some of the chips that you that you intend on selling with higher margins to
27:48 Speaker 02 IRN and Cypher and whatever they're called, all of these data center suppliers and.
27:55 Speaker 02 Therefore, you know, it's basically a guessing game exactly when we'll see scarcities, but it is very likely that we'll see scarcities in some of the consumer-linked products first. And that's why the, you know, the chronology still works from this sketch I made on the helium supply back in March. It basically means that cars, mobile phones, laptops, et cetera, will to some extent be faced with some supply disruptions. Again, I'm not talking about necessarily a shortage, but there will be a tremendous value embedded
28:36 Speaker 02 in these companies that have secured supply chains. Apple is a very good example of this, right? I don't think that's a hidden story. They have their own secured supply chains of everything that goes into their phones. And therefore, they'll probably be able to get through such a period with an extreme degree of pricing power if some of their competitors struggle a little bit with these supplies. And they'll probably even be able to increase margins during such a period. So I think this is a focus area for the next six months that, you know, all of the demand that is sort of from AI that is sort of sucking away
29:18 Speaker 02 production capacity in many of these semiconductor companies towards higher-margin production lines included in data centers will eventually lead to some sort of day of reckoning in the consumer space where those suppliers that are, you know, well-equipped to deal with these small disruptions and scarcities, they will have a tremendous pricing power, and they'll be able to deliver the laptops, the mobile phones, the cars to some extent that are still needed. And remember that we're still in an accelerating consumer economy, which is, it's kind of hard to grasp given everything that's ongoing, but it's very true.
29:58 Speaker 01 It's what we've seen, and it's absolutely interesting. Very, very fascinating stuff, very actionable here.
30:03 Speaker 02 And we're, by the way, off to a tremendous start in this theme. You know, I started buying into it last week, and, oh boy, what a start.
30:11 Speaker 01 Absolutely interested to see the specific names. I'm sorry, guys, you're going to have to to sign up for the approach here with Real Vision and get access to the macro model portfolio that we run in there. But hopefully some some inspiration for your portfolio out there what to invest in for the next legs of what's hopefully a a continued rally here. That's all we had for you this week. Remember not to miss Andreas's State of the Union on Wednesday and all the other good stuff we had for you on Real Vision this week. And if nothing else, we'll see you next Monday. Take care of yourselves.
30:43 Speaker 03 You obviously enjoyed the episode because you're here with me at the end. But listen, don't forget to go to realvision.com/join and grab a free membership. It's an incredible community packed with alpha, great investment ideas and the research that you need to help you unfuck your future. So get started now. Go to realvision.com/join.
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