Office Hours: Apple Stock and China. Should Young People Pursue a Career in Sales? And How to Bounce Back After Layoffs

Scott takes a question about tensions between China and Taiwan and the potential impact on Apple stock. He then shares his thoughts on a career in sales and finishes with a pep talk to a listener who was recently laid off. Music: https://www.davidcuttermusic.com / @dcuttermusic Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:01Scott Galloway?

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• 0:48Speaker 01

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• 1:26Scott Galloway?

  Welcome to the Prop G Pod's Office Hours. This is the part of the show where we answer your questions about business, big tech, entrepreneurship, and whatever else is on your mind. If you'd like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to [email protected]. Again, that's [email protected]. I have not heard or read these questions. First question.

• 1:47Speaker 02

  Scott, hi. This is Brian from New York City. I'm a long-term holder of Apple, as I believe you are. Earlier in 2022, I took profits on all my tech holdings, except Apple, believing it is uniquely positioned to sail through these difficult economic times. I also took comfort in knowing that Apple is Berkshire Hathaway's biggest holding. Since the Chinese Party Congress a few weeks ago, in which the party leader appeared to adopt a more aggressive tone against Taiwan, I'm now wondering if holding on to Apple is such a smart move. We're trying to invade Taiwan. Many pundits see that results for Apple is nothing short of catastrophic. From a risk management perspective, how do you view the risk and potential impact of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan on owning Apple stock?

• 2:32Scott Galloway?

  Well, that is a complicated and thoughtful question, Brian, from New York City. So trying to assess geopolitical risk and how it impacts stock prices. I don't know, I feel like that's a question more for Ian Bremmer. Look, Apple sees this risk and is trying to, my understanding is divest a bit away from China, although they're inextricably linked to China. And by the way, I think that's a good thing. I think that probably the two things that make an invasion of Taiwan less likely are, one, the bravery of the Ukrainian army that is pushing back against a much bigger, more ferocious army, which is probably giving Chinese generals some pause in terms of what they probably believe would be an easy victory over Taiwan. And two, we need China, or Apple needs China, but China needs Apple. There are more employees working for Apple in China than in the US.

• 3:17Scott Galloway?

  And Xi Jinping still needs to bring tens or hundreds of millions of people out of poverty into the middle class, otherwise there's, you know, the likelihood of revolution goes up. So I think actually, Apple in some ways being in China is sort of a good thing, not only for, not only for Apple, not only for China, but just for geopolitical safety. Now, as it relates to the stock price, Apple trades at kind of historically high PEs. I think it's at a P of 24, 25 now. It has held up really well. But I think your approach is the wrong one. And that is, I think the dimension or the analysis that, that should drive your investment decisions, or the tail that should wag the dog here, isn't trying to assess geopolitical risk. It's to look at your portfolio.

• 4:00Scott Galloway?

  And if you've enjoyed the kind of run-up I enjoyed in Apple, I've owned Apple since, I think, 2010, I think it's up, I don't know, 10 or 15 fold, and I've sold along the way, and it's still worth a lot more. Then when I bought it, but look at your total portfolio. What percentage of your wealth or your stock portfolio does Apple represent? If it's only 10 or 20% of your portfolio like the company. Okay, fine, hold on if you think the prospects are good. But if it's grown, which I bet it has to be a bigger and bigger part of your portfolio. Then maybe think about taking some chips off the table and investing in some other stuff. Maybe outside of US tech because US tech has had such an incredible run up. I find there's always a regression to the mean. What do I mean by that? Everyone gets their turn at the woodshed and in the sunshine.

• 4:43Scott Galloway?

  And it's been really sunny for Apple for a long time. Most valuable company in the world. Typically, a company that's most valuable company in the world doesn't stay there for longer than 10 years. I don't care if it's GE or Cisco or Exxon or Saudi Aramco or Apple, which is now the most valuable company in the world. I love the company. You don't have to sell all, but look at your portfolio. Spend more time trying to balance your portfolio across different, different asset classes and different regions because your kevlar is diversification. So the geopolitical risk, bottom line is, I don't know. Next question.

• 5:21Speaker 03

  Robert here from Omaha, Nebraska. My question is a macro one. What do you think of the future of commissioned sales reps in the new economy? In a world of near perfect information between buyer and seller, do you believe that the commissioned salesperson represents an uneconomic tax on commerce? And will that career be a viable career path for young people into the future? Would love to hear your thoughts.

• 5:51Scott Galloway?

  Robert from Omaha, Nebraska. So according to ZipRecruiter, the average salary of a commissioned salesperson in the US is currently around $50,000 per year. In New York, commissioned sales reps can easily make up to six figures, easily. As a matter of fact, I would argue if you're not making six figures in New York, you're not going to last very long. Here's the bottom line. Anyone in your company that people think is not that talented, but makes a lot more money than them? There's a word for that. Salesperson. On a risk-adjusted basis, people who can sell will make more money relative to their efforts than anyone else. The bottom line is, if you want to be an entrepreneur, or you want to make a shit-ton of money, you have to learn how to sell. You know what is one of the things?

• 6:33Scott Galloway?

  You know what are the things that are sort of the pillars of my success? One, I'm ridiculously fucking lucky. I was born a white heterosexual male in 1964 California, which meant free education, processing power, coming of age in the internet. Two, the irrational passion for my well-being of my mother. And three, I was forced to sell at a young age. I was not only, I not only had a paper route, I used to go sell the goddamn subscription, not to the LA Times, but to the Herald Examiner. Try selling the number two paper in the US. I used to sell chocolates. I used to sell magazines from a young age. I was knocking on doors. Also, as a young man, I was six foot, 130 pounds when I got my driver's license with bad acne. And guess what? I wanted to go to the prom.

• 7:18Scott Galloway?

  So I learned how to approach women and endure rejection. You know, that, that may sound kind of trivial or strange, but your ability to be successful in life, whether it's money, whether it's mating, is a function of your ability not only to sell, but your ability to sell is your ability to withstand rejection. And the majority of people, the majority, are not willing to endure rejection. If you want to start a company, if you want to make more money than your peers relative to your efforts, you better learn how to sell. Being a salesperson, if you can sell, you will always find a great way to make a living. And if you want to be an entrepreneur, and if you want to be a CEO,

• 8:01Scott Galloway?

  and if you ever want to run for office, boss, you better learn how to do one thing. Two things. Sell and endure rejection. Thanks for the question. We have one quick break before our final question. Stay with us.

• 8:17Scott Galloway?

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• 9:02Scott Galloway?

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• 9:17Scott Galloway?

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• 10:02Scott Galloway?

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• 10:29Scott Galloway?

  Welcome back. Question number three.

• 10:31Speaker 04

  Hi Prof G. My name is Nikki and I'm a 28-year-old project manager from Las Vegas. My question is about the path forward for young professionals who have been affected by the downturn in technology. I work for a VC firm headquartered in Palo Alto and found out this week that I'm being laid off at the start of the new year. In line with your predictions over the last few months about the recession for information age workers. Like I'm sure many others feel right now, it seems like I'm putting myself back on the market at a time when morale is only getting dimmer. I love what I do and I want to keep growing my career in the tech industry. What would you suggest is the best path forward for someone like me and so many others who are being laid off just as we are beginning to hit our professional stride?

• 11:13Speaker 04

  Thanks, and I love listening to the Prof G Pod and Pivot every week.

• 11:17Scott Galloway?

  Nikki from Las Vegas, thanks so much for your authenticity. Thanks for your honesty. First off Nikki, if you're at a VC at the age of 28, the VC industry is actually a very small industry. And people call me and say, "I want to be a VC or I want to be in private equity." I'm like, "Well, good luck with that." It's, it's an industry that people think is much bigger than it is. There's actually very few jobs in venture capital, even fewer in private equity. So if you were able to get a job in venture capital, it means one thing. You are an impressive young woman and you are the solution to a lot of firms' problems. So yeah, getting laid off, it sucks. You deserved to mourn for a little while and then you have to move on and again, stand in front of the mirror and go,

• 12:01Scott Galloway?

  "I'm an impressive young woman and I am the solution to a firm's problem." And what do you need to do? You need to get out there and immediately start interviewing, start calling people, start reaching out to friends, reaching out to firms to find out if they have a corporate investing arm. Think about the things you enjoyed about VC. Would you like to be in corporate development for an organization? Would you like to be in investor relations? There are so many ways your skills could go. And what do you want to do? You want to start just putting yourself out there, doing informational interviews, calling on friends, just getting out there. Also, don't let perfect be the enemy of good. No job's going to be the perfect job. I'm not saying take the first thing. Have a kitchen cabinet of people who advise you.

• 12:44Scott Galloway?

  But what you don't want, quite frankly, is to still be looking in a year. And also, also, it is not dark yet. I mean, it's barely, it is, it is, there's some clouds, but it is still really sunny out, Nikki. Employment is still really strong and there are a lot of companies, maybe not in the growth economy as much, but there are a lot of companies that want people with your skills. You are in the sweet spot. We always anchor off the highs. Is the market not as good for someone like you a year ago? Yeah, but guess what? At this moment, it's better than it has been for 90% of history. And the fact that you got as far as you did as young as you are, means that you're, in a word, awesome. This is a mild bump in the road.

• 13:29Scott Galloway?

  If you, when you are older, when you are my age, you will look back on this, Nikki, I promise you, and you will not be upset about being laid off. You'll be upset at how upset you were. Get back on the horse, assemble a kitchen cabinet, get out there, start talking to people. And Nikki, if you got this far, it means you are really damn good. That's all for this episode. Again, if you'd like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to [email protected].

• 14:07Scott Galloway?

  Our producers are Caroline Shager and Drew Burrows. Sammy Resnick is our associate producer. If you like what you heard, please follow, download and subscribe. Thank you for listening to the Prop G Pod from the Vox Media Podcast Network. We will catch you next week.

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