China Decode: The World Order Is Tilting Toward China (Series Finale)

After a year of decoding China's rise, Alice Han and James Kynge sit down for one final episode, and they go big picture on where China goes from here. First: the real AI race isn't just about who has the best model — it's about who embeds AI into the physical economy fastest. China spent roughly 23x less than the U. S. on private AI investment in 2025, yet is shipping ten times more humanoid robots and deploying industrial AI robots at nearly nine times the U. S. rate. Alice and James dig into the shifting balance of AI talent, chips, and capability — and make their predictions on who leads next. Then: a look at the broader balance of power. A striking Pew poll shows more countries now view China more favorably than the U. S., and the Lowy Institute's 2025 Asia Power Index recorded the U. S.'s largest-ever single-year decline in regional power. Alice and James weigh whether China's global-south strategy is paying off, and where Xi's leadership goes from here. Finally: China's cultural export machine — from Ne Zha 2's record-breaking box office to Pop Mart's next blind-box phenomenon after Labubu, to TikTok's continued global growth. Is Chinese soft power just getting started? And with that, a heartfelt thank you: this is the final episode of China Decode. Thank you for a year of listening, sharing, and following along as we explored the economy, politics, and culture of a country that will only grow more important to the world. Subscribe to Prof G Media on Substack for daily analysis, livestreams, and deep dives into the biggest stories shaping the global economy: https://www.profgmedia.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:01Speaker 00

  Hogging seats on a crowded train, not saying excuse me, watching videos on your phone with no headphones in. Sometimes it feels like we don't know how to act anymore. What we have been seeing increasingly is people breaking rules. Why should I play by the rules if nobody else is going to do that for me? This week on Explain It To Me, how to mind your manners. New episodes, Sundays, wherever you get your podcasts.

• 0:30James Kynge?

  It's going to create masses of friction and stress, both in trade and commerce and geopolitics. We are going to be, I think, amazed by China. And, you know, in the West, let's face it, we're going to be struggling to compete with this. This revolution is being led by China. That is the key difference. China is at the forefront of this cluster of new technologies that promise to fundamentally reshape the way industry, commerce, and actually our daily lives around the world will change and evolve over time.

• 1:13Alice Han?

  Welcome to China Decode. I'm Alice Han.

• 1:15James Kynge?

  And I'm James Kynge.

• 1:16Alice Han?

  Before we get started today, we come with a bittersweet announcement. This will be our final episode of the show. Unfortunately, that is the reality of the media landscape right now. Some topics are easier for advertisers to get behind than others, and we've ultimately hit a wall when it comes to finding advertisers for this show, and that is a real shame. But we've had such a great time, James and I, over the past year decoding why China has become a superpower that the West simply cannot ignore, and exploring the ways Chinese business, politics, and culture are shaping the world around us.

• 1:50James Kynge?

  Oh, Alice, I'm wiping away a tear here. I must say, it really is sad to be saying goodbye to China Decode. And I want to say what a pleasure it's been to co-host this with you. We've really had a lot of fun. We've covered a lot of topics, and I've learned a great deal from your insights. I also want to mention the team at China Decode. It's been an honest privilege. What our listeners perhaps don't know or see is the team of guys in the US who debate the topics with us, who help with the research, who keep us sounding better than we should, or certainly in my case, better than I should, editing out my stumbles and repetitions each week. I'm gonna miss you guys and all of this

• 2:33James Kynge?

  a great deal. I'm sure you will do too, Alice.

• 2:36Alice Han?

  Yeah, I second everything you've just said, James, and I honestly couldn't have asked for a better ally, friend, and co-host on this pod. And it's been a real experience of a lifetime, and I'm glad that we got to share that together. So, thank you. For our final episode, we wanted to look ahead at how China will continue to shape the future. And we wanted to start off with one of the biggest stories we've covered on this show, and that is AI. When we talk about the US-China AI competition, we tend to focus on who was the best model. But China may be playing a bigger game, embedding AI into the physical economy, cars, factories, smartphones, appliances, toys, and increasingly

• 3:16Alice Han?

  robots. And as a quick sense of scale, the US spent about $285 billion on private AI investment in 2025 versus China roughly $12.4 billion, about 23 times less than the US. But the capability gap between the two countries, despite the investment difference, is rapidly tightening. So, James, I think this has been the biggest topic for us over the past year. And certainly, in the time in which we've covered this topic, I think China has surprise to the upside on a number of levels, you know, starting from its ability to do cutting-edge models, largely open weight, open source. In some instantiations, there

• 3:59Alice Han?

  are some people saying that China may be six months behind the leading closed models coming out of the US. China's also, I think, surprised to the upside when it comes to its ability to bypass the constraints on hardware, say chips, for instance, with homegrown talent, but also its ability to find workarounds in the existing architecture. And it's surprised on robotics, too, where I think it's had a real clear lead versus the West. What has surprised you the most, I think, this year on AI in China? And what are your high-level thoughts and predictions for the next five, 10 years?

• 4:36James Kynge?

  Yeah, this really got me reflecting, Alice. I think one of the things we've really tried to do on China Decode is to put the right frame around the many, many different topics that we see coming out of China and involving China and the US, and China and Europe, and China and the rest of the world. And so I spent a little bit of time thinking about the correct frame for China's advances and progress in artificial intelligence. And I would have to say that, really, I think that this is so important that we should call it something like the Fourth Industrial Revolution. That's not a phrase I've made up. That's a phrase that's already out there. And this industrial revolution is one that's

• 5:16James Kynge?

  characterized by artificial intelligence, robotics, automation, and a few other elements as well. And to me, this revolution is being led by China. That is the key difference. China is at the forefront of this cluster of new technologies that promise to fundamentally reshape the way industry, commerce, and actually our daily lives around the world will change and evolve over time. And I think just to back that up a little bit, to show that China definitely intends to do this, we need to look no further than Chinese 15th Five-Year

• 6:00James Kynge?

  Plan, which came out earlier this year, in which it says that it wants the penetration rate of next-generation artificial intelligence and AI agents to exceed 90% across economic sectors and industries in China by 2030. And of course, 2030 is just around the corner. China is already deploying AI, automation, robotics into many different sectors of the economy. We've spoken about this a lot. You and I have both done trips to China where we've seen this in real time. But just to stress the enormity of this, you know, so

• 6:39James Kynge?

  the first industrial revolution was around, you know, 1760 to 1840, and that consisted of water power and steam power. The second industrial revolution was late 19th and early 20th century. That was all about electric power. The third industrial revolution, which began in the 1960s and 70s, was all about electronics, computing, and information technology. And so what we're talking about here is something that is a discontinuity. It takes us to the next step. And that is what is going to happen with artificial intelligence and factory automation. But I want to be clear that we're not just talking here about

• 7:24James Kynge?

  humanoid robots that are driven by artificial intelligence and can do backflips and dance and amuse everyone at China's Spring Gala every year. That is the flashy end of AI and robotics, but it isn't the end that, to use a phrase that Deng Xiaoping used to say, it's not the end that, so far anyway, catches mice. The area that's catching mice in China right now is factory and industrial automation. And last year, China installed 295,000 new industrial robots. That makes up over 54% of all industrial robot installations

• 8:05James Kynge?

  throughout the world. And it's that that you and I have seen in factories and in exhibition centers all over China. It's that that's really moving the needle. I mean, my favorite example of this is the absolutely stunning example, I've used it a few times on China Decode, I'm gonna use it again without apology, of the Xiaomi car factory in Beijing that has production lines with not a single human being on them, entirely automated. They're producing a car called the SU7. I met an American friend this morning who's been in an SU7, and he says it's like a Porsche, but it costs, you know, about slightly more

• 8:47James Kynge?

  than half the price of a Porsche. But the key point is that these production lines that are entirely automated produce a new SU7 every 76 seconds. That, to me, is a crystallization of the world that we're going into. That is a crystallization of what the Fourth Industrial Revolution really means. I think it's going to amaze the world. It's going to create masses of friction and stress, both in trade and commerce and geopolitics. We are going to be, I think, amazed by China. And, you know, in the West, let's face it, we're going to be struggling to compete with this for decades to come. So, those are my high-level

• 9:30James Kynge?

  thoughts. Alice, what about you?

• 9:33Alice Han?

  Yeah, it chimes with what I've been thinking. And it's great to hear you quote Carl Schwab at World Economic Forum, who's been harping on about the Fourth Industrial Revolution for a time. And also interesting to note that the First Industrial Revolution was really dominated by the Brits, the Second and Third by the Americans. Any student of history will realize that empires don't last for an indefinite period of time. And I would be betting on the side of a hand over to the Chinese and the Fourth Revolution for all the examples and reasons you've cited. I would add to that, that, you know, China will be very, very strong on the hardware part of the AI stack, maybe excluding parts

• 10:13Alice Han?

  of the cutting edge of chip production and chip equipment production, where I think, you know, even though China has shown that it, you know, with Huawei and this making YMTC, that it has very strong homegrown capabilities, I think, given the lead that Taiwan, ASML, some of the, you know, US chip design companies for GPUs like Nvidia have, it's hard for me to see China completely disrupt them out of the water. So I think there will still be a clear advantage that the West has over chips, although China will continue to preference its own domestic production largely through, you know, lower-grade GPUs,

• 10:55Alice Han?

  ASICs, but also DRAMs and memory, where they actually have a distinct advantage, I think, on cost and scale. But elsewhere in the hardware stack or the hardware outputs, and this is where I think it chimes with your argument. China will be, I think, the dominating power when it comes to robotics. And these are not just humanoid robots used in the home. This is industrial robots. This is already the, you know, the fact of today. But also for autonomous vehicles here again, I think you have both the hardware capabilities, but the software through some of the leading car companies. And whether it's, for instance, Huawei collaborating with Chinese EV companies, or whether it's Xiaomi or Neo.

• 11:39Alice Han?

  I think that there's been a lot of investment and R and D into autonomous vehicles. And China will have the productive capacity, a scale, cheapness to really export that to the rest of the world. I think that will be a theme that replaces EVs in 10, 15 years from now. And I also think that China will ride the coat tails of this fourth industrial revolution and become, I think, still a dominant trade surplus running country, the biggest exporter in the world and by historical standards as well. That is, I think, an unavoidable truth. But one thing that I will caveat is that I do see the risk of regulation and national security elements in the

• 12:24Alice Han?

  West, in Europe, in the US, maybe even countries like Australia, Japan and Canada, to regulate some aspects of the China AI stack. And here, I think in particular, that they won't be so much directed against maybe the robots or the autonomous vehicles, because there's a clear consumer surplus that cheap, you know, at scale Chinese robots and AVs can produce for those domestic economies in G7 primarily. But I think open source models coming from China may face the risk of the same kind of regulation we saw against Huawei in 18, 19 onwards. And I think that that will create, as we've said previously, James, some kind of a digital iron curtain when it comes to models.

• 13:09Alice Han?

  And I think the US will lead on that. I think it will be very significant when we look at the 2028 election, who comes into the White House? Because if it is somebody who is able to coalesce the allies and G7 countries to, to really regulate against Chinese AI companies on the models front and maybe the applications front, that I think will be a serious blow for China's lead of the fourth industrial revolution. But other than that, I do agree with you. And I think I came away from reading Ruby Wong's book and talking to her, feeling like actually biotech is another aspect where, you know, in five, 10, 15 years from now, China will be leading across the supply chain, but also

• 13:53Alice Han?

  across the research pipelines. And James, I, I think the one topic that we don't talk about enough, but that I think will be one of the most significant drivers, and here I'm in part influenced by James Leng, who just came out with a book, Innovationism. And he's, you know, the CEO of Ctrip, is a demographer. I think the talent pool is actually pretty significant. So some of the figures coming out suggest that China dominates on AI top talent. Before MacroPolo, I think, finished their surveys in 2024, 38% of top talent came from China, 24% from the US. 72% of those top talent Chinese researchers live and work in the US. That, I think, will shift. We'll start to see more Chinese people going back to

• 14:38Alice Han?

  mainland China, working for Chinese companies, bringing the know-how back. And I, I suspect China will be better equipped to educate and train leading AI talent and AI conversant or cognizant students. And as a result, I think China will be better equipped for this AI revolution from a human talent, human capital standpoint. Okay, we'll be back with more after a quick break. So stay with us.

• 15:15Scott Galloway?

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• 16:23Scott Galloway?

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• 17:36Scott Galloway?

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• 18:46Alice Han?

  Welcome back. It's often hard to separate the global balance of economic power from the balance of political power. But we should offer some predictions on where we think geopolitics are going as well. We recently saw this pretty stunning poll from Pew Research that many countries now view China more positively than the US. That Pew Research obviously is pretty startling in terms of, you know, the real shift in people's sentiments in the West towards China. But I don't apply a lot of credence by the facts, because, you know, if you look back to previous surveys, five, six, seven years ago, it was the mirror opposite, showing again that actually national sentiment towards China can shift

• 19:30Alice Han?

  on a dime quite quickly and in a matter of years. But I do think one trend that is, to my mind, ineluctable, it's the trend towards China leading AIPAC and the Global South. And, and here, I think the creation of BRICS+, adding more countries, primarily from the Middle East to BRICS, which is 30% of global GDP, the creation of RCEP, SCO, other multilateral China-led organizations, and the fact that the Global South, as we previously discussed, James, is, you know, two thirds of the global population, a third currently of PPP adjusted GDP. That will only rise, given demographics and the way that the economies are shifting in those regions.

• 20:16Alice Han?

  I think China is going to have a bigger say in, I think, a growing part of the global community, and that is the Global South. And here, I think Chinese tech benefits, China's economy benefits to some extent. But it also enables what we've previously discussed, James, which is China's massive trade surplus. It's China's trade surplus as a share of its GDP is the biggest by any historical account. It's now currently, in terms of exports share of GDP, 20%. I wouldn't be surprised if in 10, 15 years from now, it's closer to 30%. We already are talking about China Shock 2.0. I think this is going to be an unavoidable inconvenient truth for many in the West.

• 20:58Alice Han?

  But the Global South, I think, is what China is banking on, and it's going to be a bigger part of the story.

• 21:03James Kynge?

  Yeah, I couldn't agree more, Alice. When you live in the West, if you're in the US or in Europe, the amount of, kind of, I suppose, what we used to call column inches in the newspapers, now, of course, online, the amount of writing you find about the Global South, the amount of analysis on the Global South is really very weak. And this means that China is effectively expanding into the West's blind spot. And I would go one stage further, maybe, even than what you've said so acutely about the Global South, and say that the Global South is seen by China as an agent through

• 21:45James Kynge?

  which China plans to rewire the world in a way that serves China. As you've said, China's trade and commerce connections to the Global South are, well, they put the West into the shade. All you've got to do is look at the amount of trade that China does with Africa, the amount of Chinese infrastructure that's being built in Africa, the amount of Chinese investment going into Africa, then you can see exactly what I'm talking about. And what comes from this is that in many of the global institutions, not just the China-led institutions that you've mentioned, but the global institutions such as the United Nations,

• 22:28James Kynge?

  you can see a very clear tendency among countries of the Global South, this is more than 100 countries, to vote alongside China and to support China's positions on global issues. And that, to me, really underlines the point that you're making, Alice. China's biggest supporter in global affairs, commercially, geopolitically, politically, is the Global South. Of course, there are tensions, and this goes back and forth, and it's not a straight line. But I don't think it's too much of a simplification to say that China regards the Global South

• 23:06James Kynge?

  as its kind of agent to recreate the world, and it regards the West as kind of a source of friction, a source of opposition to the ambitions that China intends. So a couple of years ago, Han Zheng, the Vice President of China, said that China, as the largest developing country, is a natural member of the Global South. It breathes the same breath with other developing countries, and it shares the same future with them. You would never find a Chinese leader saying that about the West.

• 23:49James Kynge?

  Normally, what they talk about when it comes to the West is Western hegemony, is the era of colonialism through which China and many other countries in the Global South suffered. You can also see this in the way that China's trade with the Global South is now around 50% of its total trade volume. You can also see it most revealingly, of course, in the Belt and Road Initiative, which was entirely directed at the Global South, with the exception of Italy, which is no longer a member of the BRI, and through which China invested, well, there are different opinions on the numbers, but let's say about 1.5 trillion US dollars in terms of loans

• 24:34James Kynge?

  and investments in infrastructure, ports, railways, airports, et cetera, all over the Global South. So what we're seeing here is, again, a reorientation of the world's economic and political activity that we haven't seen for hundreds of years. Prioritizing connections and development of the Global South is really very new, at least in the extent to which China has pursued it. So, yeah, I think that's a key, key point.

• 25:04Alice Han?

  Yeah, and I think what's happening in the Middle East affirms that trend towards more and more of the world's, and here I note the Gulf States, hedging between the US and China, but potentially closer to China for trade investment. You see that in both the rhetoric that is coming out of the conflict and the sort of closeness that we're seeing between the Gulf States and Beijing, but also in terms of more bilateral trade, bilateral investment, more sovereign wealth funds from the Middle East investing in Chinese startups, being bullish about China's AI capabilities. Sovereign AI, for instance, doing quite well, China's sovereign AI that is being exported to the Middle East.

• 25:48Alice Han?

  But I wanted to take a flip side of it and say that it isn't all peaches and sunshine and rainbows. We haven't yet discussed the CNY share of global trade and FX reserves. We've discussed this in the past, but I'm here quite bearish that actually we can see both China displacing the dollar with the CNY and that there will be a meaningful increase in CNY usage in FX reserves and global trade. So currently, it's remained largely unchanged. CNY is around 2% of global FX reserves, it's around 3% to 4% of global payments, and around 8% of global trade finance. Around 30% of China's current account surplus is settled in CNY.

• 26:33Alice Han?

  I think that that increases naturally because they can use that bilateral trading relationship to increase CNY settlement of payments. But elsewhere, when it comes to FX reserves, when it comes to other global trade denomination, I'm very skeptical that we see a massive uptick in CNY for a couple of reasons. One, China's just not seen as a safe asset currency. Part of that is because it's a closed capital account. Part of that is also it's historically got very weak bond yields on the Chinese government bonds that remains in place as long as domestic demand is weak. Another part of it is that China doesn't really have an incentive to see a strong CNY because it is still trying to support running massive trade surpluses with the

• 27:18Alice Han?

  rest of the world. And as long as those elements remain true, very hard for me to see that actually dollar gets displaced and CNY becomes the dominant reserve currency in the next five, 10, 15, maybe even more years. Okay, we'll be back with more after a quick break. Stay with us. Welcome back. With economic power and political power also comes cultural power. TikTok and Labubus are likely just the beginning when it comes to an increasing cultural impact of China around the globe. James, it's really fitting that our first episode was about Labubus.

• 28:02Alice Han?

  And I think it struck a chord because it was, what I believe, is the tip of the iceberg when it comes to China as a cultural superpower. You know, we saw this to some extent with Japan in the 90s, with K-pop Korean culture now. But I do think when you look at some of the cultural exports that are coming out in cinema, in toys, with TikTok, obviously, that we're just at the beginning of China becoming super relevant. And I think that this trend will only increase, given the creativity that is being exported, but also the increased travel of Westerners or foreigners going into China due to the

• 28:44Alice Han?

  visa-free travel scheme that they've expanded in the last year or more. What has made China different today, you think, to take the bull case than, say, ten, fifteen years ago, when it, you know, when China obviously was economically rising, but it wasn't clear that it could be culturally relevant?

• 29:01James Kynge?

  Yeah, well, Alice, you know, Labubus was never my comfort zone and I'm not quite, it still isn't, I'm not quite the right demographic, but I'm reading that there is a Labubu follow-up act called Twinkle Twinkle, and these are sort of cutesy chubby.

• 29:20Alice Han?

  Yeah, I got gifted one recently, they are very cute, yeah.

• 29:24James Kynge?

  Wow, okay, well, like I say, I'm probably not the right demographic, I don't think anyone would give me one of them, but apparently they're very, they're very sweet, they're kind of rosy-cheeked figures, they look like tiny joyful stars, and I don't know, we'll have to see whether or not it takes off, but, but I do think that that Labubu craze was, was really interesting, as you mentioned, because it was a Chinese cultural export. I don't know how many people in London or Tokyo or elsewhere really associated Labubus with China, but, you know, if you, if you cared to find out, you could find out, and so that, that was an interesting thing.

• 30:05James Kynge?

  Coming back to your, your question, though, why is China becoming more, you know, exercising greater cultural affinity, let's put it like that, or becoming more fashionable, becoming more hip, or, you know, to use one of the words you see quite a lot on, online, China maxing, you know, people living their, their, their best China life, as the phrase goes? I would say, you know, it actually starts with the topic that you and I have been talking about, really, since China GCO began, and that is the increasing technological prominence and advancement of China, plus the increasing geopolitical power.

• 30:45James Kynge?

  I think there's something innate in human beings to follow a leader, and China is becoming a leader now, and this is the first time that China's been a global leader for many, many centuries. But also, you know, China's becoming wealthier, and some of the products that China's producing are, in their own right, inherently, very attractive. But I wouldn't have imagined, for instance, that Chinese movies, Chinese films would become, you know, would gather as much of a, of a following as they are beginning to gather. Domestically, of course, and China's box office in 2025 hit 7.47 billion US dollars,

• 31:30James Kynge?

  that was up 20% year-on-year, and compared with the US domestic box office of 8.6 billion, but I mean, we all know that Hollywood is kind of the centre of US soft power, but China's not too far behind now in terms of money, and of course, money makes the world go round. I mean, globally, China is also contributing quite considerably to the global box office numbers, it took about 24% in 2025, and that's not far behind North America's 29%. So even in areas where, honestly, I wouldn't have expected China to be making that much

• 32:14James Kynge?

  ground, it is doing pretty well, and of course, TikTok is the runaway success of China, there are roughly 1.9 billion monthly active users of TikTok all over the world in 2026, that's, that, that's really a huge number. Again, I wouldn't say TikTok is, is particularly Chinese, I use TikTok the whole time, I don't think of it as Chinese, it's just a convenience. China is moving in lots of different areas, but I would say the basic reason is that when a leader emerges, people take note and they start to follow.

• 32:50Alice Han?

  Yeah, so I have two predictions for China culture. Number one is in the realm of AI apps and social media, really, sort of the next wave of, of digital media that is AI-generated, AI-enabled, and I'm gonna, you know, stick my head out there and make a big bet, which is I think China will dominate. And a couple of reasons, one, I think we were very surprised 10 years ago by the ascent of TikTok, but TikTok showed that a very Chinese company run by Zhang Yiming, a very Chinese founder, could be lauded and celebrated and accepted and worldwide, and it is, you

• 33:35Alice Han?

  know, still one of the fastest-growing social media companies in the world. It, you know, AIPAC is a big part of this, and here I get, I think that the Asia, China in Asia story is going to be a big theme in this sort of AI world too, because this is 60% of the world's population, it's 4.85 billion people, you've got super-weight countries like India and Indonesia that are only growing demographically. So if China can tap into the cultural relevance, relevance in AIPAC, that is a huge theme and trend, and because there are so many, you know, exciting, cool AI apps, and this is not models, the application layer of AI, that are, you know, growing and coming out

• 34:20Alice Han?

  of China and that people don't know about, so, you know, AI video editing, AI photo editing, you know, that the fastest-growth AI app companies in those domains are coming from China globally. I was just listening to Kai-Fu Li's interview, in which he talks about investing in an AI app company that generates videos for handymen in the US, so handymen can upload photos and it generates a video, and then it helps them, you know, connect with their clients. So here, I'm very, very optimistic that China can dominate AI apps, and by proxy, can build the cultural relevance and soft power that we have seen in the last couple of years,

• 35:05Alice Han?

  and I really do think that that cultural power was, has been enabled by social media companies, largely TikTok, because when I look at TikTok, Instagram, Shaoxing Shu Red Note, which has become more popular in the last couple of years globally, there's so much pro-Chinese, pro-Chinese cultural content that is coming out, and that people in the West and elsewhere are able to see, and that is what has been fueling, in what we've talked about in previous episodes, the growth of interest in Chinese fashion, in, in, in China maxing, in Labubus, in Chinese cinema. So I think that is my first prediction, that it will dominate AI apps and social media for years to come, and thereby continue to export Chinese culture.

• 35:47Alice Han?

  And my second one is a bit left-field, but, you know, hear me out, I think, given that China is showing through its 30-day visa-free policy, now with 50 countries, but I think that that will expand in the coming years, that it wants more of the West and the global audience to see China, the real China. I am pretty bullish on Chinese tourism, currently it's around 5% of GDP, it's about $880 billion annual revenue for the tourism sector, I think that we could see that double in the next five years, both because of domestic interest, but also global, you know, people are coming to visit China, and so I'm pretty bullish on Chinese hotels and Chinese tourism. You know, my feed, and this probably says a lot about me, my Instagram feed is dominated

• 36:32Alice Han?

  by new luxury hotels that are being created in China, at an alarming clip, there's one, for instance, the Sixth Sense that just came up in, in Chengdu, that, that looks absolutely amazing, I'm pretty bullish on that side of China. So these are just two very high-level predictions, but I feel like we need to say something a little bit negative, otherwise it just won't feel balanced, what do you think, James?

• 36:54James Kynge?

  Yeah, I mean, I, I was thinking the same thing, actually, I feel like, you know, everything we've said, I, I very much kind of endorse, but I feel like we're also headed for a very rocky period, and this mainly consists of China's relationship with the West. I think we're heading into what will be a slow-burn trade war with Europe.

• 37:19Alice Han?

  Yeah.

• 37:19James Kynge?

  Europe simply cannot compete with China at the moment, much of Europe's industrial base is currently being eroded or even wiped out by Chinese competition, they, several countries in Europe are hemorrhaging jobs, this is a very, very serious issue, that will create enormous tension, I think, for many years going forward, I don't think we're going to be done with this in five years, I think we're, we're looking more like decades. The same is true of the US, but to a lesser extent, the US is much better able to compete with China in most areas.

• 38:00James Kynge?

  But then there are geopolitical tensions, and there are tensions over cybersecurity, and tensions over hacking, all kinds of tensions that ride along with the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the new technologies that we've just been talking about, and these are not going to go away. Then there's military tensions, China's building up a massive military, it's going to be able to take on the US, probably within a decade, or certainly take on elements of US forces in their forward positions, and I would include Taiwan in that, Japan, South Korea, we're, we're probably going to see big changes of, you know, the, the, the military emplacements

• 38:45James Kynge?

  of the US in Asia over that time, and, you know, this will be very uncomfortable for the US and for the countries of the West. So, you know, China's ambitions in the South China Sea are well-known, those, that encroaches upon several countries in Southeast Asia, that will create tensions, so although it's easy to, well, it's not easy, but, but we spend a great deal of our time looking at China's technological advance and its advances in other economic areas, geopolitically, we're headed for a very rough ride.

• 39:18Alice Han?

  Yeah, and I would love the way that you've brought up that counterpoint, and, you know, the real elephant in the room that we haven't yet discussed, but I think is going to be the most significant. Prediction or trend is the US-China relationship and that I'm sure you agree with me is looks like it's gonna just get worse. Even after Trump leaves the wall, even after we get the new president in 2028, I think that that relationship will be worse in terms of, you know, more restrictions, sanctions, regulations against China. And that, you know, some of these issues over Taiwan, national security, South China Sea get even more heated as China tests American resolve in Asia, right?

• 40:00James Kynge?

  And there are new domains that we have mentioned in the past on China Decode, such as space, space race, space weapons, space surveillance. These are vast new different areas and, you know, unless there is some totally unexpected kind of geopolitical de-escalation between China and the US, we're probably going to see the tensions that exist between the two superpowers extended into space as well.

• 40:29Alice Han?

  Yeah, and then the other threat closer to home, but still disturbing is AI weapons or some kind of rogue agent AI attacks that could go into the nuclear bio weapons domains. You know, the fact that we haven't had any real leadership between Washington and Beijing or any concerted effort for some kind of arms controls or AI safety guardrails, I think is also going to set back civilization, really, in the years and decades to come.

• 41:00James Kynge?

  Yeah, and I think that would be my kind of parting comment would be, if the West and China doesn't get on, that is just one of those things. That's one of those things that happens in international relations. But what I would hope is that the minimum amount of cooperation to ensure the safety of our respective populations is really focused on by both China and the US and Europe. Geopolitical competition is one thing, but kind of white-knuckled competition without anybody with their hand on the tiller and nobody even cooperating in the merest of areas is really a scary prospect.

• 41:39Alice Han?

  Yeah, well, we don't want to leave everyone too scared and disheartened. But suffice it to say, this makes what we do so important, helping people understand China, helping people from different domains, whether it's policy, technology, economics, business, to better understand China, hopefully will make our world a better place. And I wanted to leave on that positive note and say that this is all for this episode. And sadly, for China Decode, we want to thank the audience so much for listening over the past year and sending messages to both James and myself. Very encouraging and supportive messages. It's been a real pleasure getting to explore China with you all.

• 42:21Alice Han?

  Its economy, its politics, its culture and its growing influence around the world. And we're incredibly proud of what we've built with this show. And we're especially grateful to everyone who listened, shared an episode, sent us a question or just spent some time with us each week. We hope we left you with a better understanding of a country that will only become more important to the world in the years ahead. This was a production of Prof G Media and we want to give a huge thank you to the entire team behind the show, David Toledo, Ness Smith-Savadoff, Mary Dew and Eric Janikas, who researched, produced, edited, booked guests and helped bring China Decode to life. And thank you to Catherine Dillon, Drew Barrows, Billy Bennett, Dan Shalan,

• 43:06Alice Han?

  William Flynn, Jesse Millwood, Gil Espinoza and Corinne Brown for production help every week. It's been an absolute pleasure making this show. We thank you for being along for the ride.

• 43:17James Kynge?

  Well, Alice, I mean, I just endorse everything you said. I think that was beautifully put. I absolutely love this. The team that we've been working with have been fantastic and it's just been such a privilege working with you. Thank you very much.

• 43:33Alice Han?

  Likewise, and we're not finished. James and I will continue to be chatting all China and hopefully educating you guys in other formats.