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Oil Expert: We Can’t Predict Iran Anymore

Prof G Markets

Hosted by Ed Elson and Scott Galloway

31m
Transcript

Original podcast

Summary

Written by a model from the transcript; not yet reviewed.

This episode covers the intersection of volatile commodity markets and the rapid expansion of online sports betting. The host discusses ongoing uncertainties in global oil supply, specifically focusing on the Strait of Hormuz, US-Iran tensions, and surging diesel prices with a commodity research director. Later, a policy expert breaks down new reporting on DraftKings utilizing machine learning models to target vulnerable gamblers, the massive shift in sports betting revenues, and regulatory headwinds facing prediction markets.

  • The guest explains that oil markets remain in a holding pattern until after midterm elections while enduring severe price pressures on diesel. 4:46
  • The guest notes that 82% of sports betting revenue during the 2023-2024 NFL season came from just 3% of customers. 21:48
  • The guest points out that legalizing online sports betting has led to measurable economic harms, including a 10% increase in personal bankruptcies. 24:28

Chapters

  1. 0:01
    Podcast Intro and Sponsorships

    Hosts introduce the show and list multiple sponsors before transitioning to the main topic.

  2. 2:21
    Oil Market Overview

    Ed reviews recent market movements, noting Brent crude’s volatility and the impact of geopolitical events.

  3. 3:10
    Trump’s UN Speech and Iran Dynamics

    The hosts discuss President Trump’s remarks at the UN and their implications for U.S.-Iran relations and oil prices.

  4. 3:41
    Expert Insight: Matt Smith on Middle East Tensions

    Matt Smith explains how Saudi and Iranian actions shape oil supply and price risk premiums.

  5. 8:04
    Risk Premium and Diesel Inflation

    The conversation turns to how Strait of Hormuz risks feed into diesel prices and broader inflation.

Highlights

Quotes

  • “We simply don't know how to model the end game”
    Ed Elson · 5:50
  • “10% increase in personal bankruptcies, a 6% to 8% increase in auto loan delinquencies, increase in child maltreatment cases, increases in food insecurity”
    Unnamed speaker · 24:32
  • “The number one driver is availability, right? Since the 2018 Supreme Court decision, 39 states in Washington DC have legalized sports betting in some form, 32 of them providing it online.”
    Unnamed speaker · 21:21
  • VCX 0:01–0:41
  • Attio 0:55–2:07
  • Google Chrome 1:33–1:56
  • NetSuite 13:38–16:21
  • AlphaSpace by Yahoo Finance 15:03–16:52
  • Google Chrome 16:34–16:58
  • Anthropic 33:36–33:55

About this episode

Ed Elson is joined by Matt Smith to break down how Trump’s latest threats are driving oil prices and where he thinks they’re headed next. Then, Jonathan Cohen returns to discuss the state of the sports betting market and what the regulatory landscape could look like going forward. Finally, Ed explains why he thinks the AI debate is the dumbest conversation of the year. Matt Smith is the Director of Commodity Research at Kpler. Jonathan Cohen is the Policy Lead at the Institute for Boys and Men and author of Losing Big: America’s Reckless Bet on Sports Gambling. Subscribe to the Prof G Markets Youtube Channel Follow Prof G Markets on Instagram Follow Ed on Instagram, X and Substack Follow Scott on Instagram Send us your questions or comments by emailing [email protected] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

0:00
31:50

5,905 words · 8 speakers

Speaker names marked are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

Topics

  • Sports betting
  • Diesel
  • Prediction markets
  • DraftKings
  • AI
  • Oil
  • Strait of Hormuz
  • FanDuel
  • Brent crude
  • Supreme Court

Page updated · transcript and summary are machine-generated