Pod Insights Prof G Markets Figma’s IPO is Finally Here, Fed Holds Rates Steady & Amazon’s $20M AI Licensing Deal with the NYT About this episode Ed and Scott share their predictions for Figma’s highly anticipated IPO. Then Ed breaks down why the Federal Reserve decided to hold interest rates steady and unpacks the price tag on the AI licensing deal between the New York Times and Amazon.
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1:29 Ed Elson? Today's number? 10. That's how many smartphones are stolen by monkeys per day at the Uluwatu Temple in Bali. According to researchers, the monkeys operate with, quote, "unprecedented economic decision-making", identifying which items we value most and trading them for food. In other news, Howard Lutnick was recently spotted in the jungle speaking to monkeys. According to reports, he wanted to, quote, "know what they know."
2:01 Speaker 03 Money markets matter. If money is evil, then that building is hell.
2:10 Ed Elson? Welcome to Profitec Markets. I'm Ed Elson. It is July 31st. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The S and P 500 and the Dow declined following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. More on that later. The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed and the dollar rose for the fifth day in a row. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq rose ahead of Meta and Microsoft's earnings. Meta stock ripped 10% in after-hours trading after the company reported a revenue increase of 22% year-over-year. That beats out analyst expectations by nearly $3 billion. Microsoft's stock got a 7% pop after posting a powerful beat with Azure revenues up 34% year-over-year. The company also raised their CapEx guidance for the year by $10 billion.
2:54 Ed Elson? Tune in on Monday for a full breakdown on all of the big tech earnings from this week, including tonight's reports from Amazon and Apple. Okay, what else is happening? One of tech's most anticipated IPOs is finally here. Design software firm Figma is set to go public today, targeting a nearly $19 billion valuation. The offering is expected to raise around $1.2 billion at current pricing. So Figma's moment has finally come. We discussed this IPO a couple of weeks ago. I explained why this is the only IPO in 2025 that we're actually excited about.
3:35 Ed Elson? We've seen a bunch of quote-unquote "hot" IPOs in 2025, but most of them have been unimpressive and mostly crypto-adjacent companies, certainly not companies that we want to invest in for the long term. Figma, however, is the exception. As we discussed, this actually is an impressive company. They've built an incredible business. They have an amazing design product. They are, in a lot of ways, endemic to the startup ecosystem at this point. In some, great company. And if you want to hear more about why we think that, go check out our episode from July 3rd, where we run through all of the numbers. So that's where we stand. And it appears that the market is beginning to feel the same
4:16 Ed Elson? way. The IPO was originally priced at around $25 per share. That's where they started the roadshow. And then by the end of the roadshow, based on the feedback and the demand, they're now pricing this at a range of $30 to $32 per share. According to a Bloomberg report, the IPO is almost 40 times oversubscribed now. So that really would make it the hottest IPO of the year. And therefore, my prediction, we're going to see a huge pop in the stock price today. And in my view, a warranted pop. I think this company is worth at least $20 billion, and the current pricing values it at less than $19 billion. But let's give Scott a call. Let's see if he has a prediction for us. Perhaps he agrees with me. Perhaps he disagrees. Let's find out.
5:04 Ed Elson? Hey Scott.
5:04 Speaker 04 How are you, Ed?
5:05 Ed Elson? I'm doing well. How are you?
5:06 Speaker 04 I'm good. I'm indoors where my air conditioning is screaming at you. You're asking a lot of me. I may break down at any moment. It's about 140 degrees here. And it's pretty hot here in New York.
5:18 Ed Elson? It's terrible. Is your IC working? Is that the problem?
5:23 Speaker 04 At the moment. But fortunately, I only pay $11,000 a month in HOA fees. So it's, you know, you get what you pay for, which means my air conditioning could go out at any moment.
5:33 Ed Elson? Yeah, love it. Well, we want to get your take on Figma, about to go public. I'm very bullish. I've made my case. What are your views on this IPO? What do you think we can expect?
5:44 Speaker 04 Well, two people that I trust immensely. The first is Catherine Dillon, who teaches a course on visual language. People don't know, Ed Ellison gets some of the credit, Scott Geller gets most of the credit. But the real strength here is Catherine Dillon. And she's a professor of the arts at Tisch. And she's not easily excited. And when we talked about Figma a couple of years ago, she said, the first thing I have my students do is learn Figma. And then you weighed in saying that you thought it was a great IPO. And I've been looking at it. By the way, just in the spirit of full transparency, I'm desperately trying to find shares in this thing. And the funniest thing was I called a friend or a guy I've dealt with at
6:28 Speaker 04 an investment bank that I have some money with, and he picked up the phone and said, Scott, I cannot get you shares in Figma. He knew exactly who I was calling. He knew. He knew I was calling. Wow. Look, so in a world of AI, everything looks kind of anodyne and you can create a website, but design still is an enormous point of differentiation. And if you look at both at Lhasan and IBM, and I thought this was telling, the ratio of designers to coders that they hire has gone from like one to 50 or one in 70 to one in 10. And that is the corporate world realizes the power of design. Adobe, which is an incredible company, some people would argue has become over engineered. It's got $150 billion market cap to kind of own the space.
7:11 Speaker 04 Canva came out, I would argue Canvas is sort of the entry level kind of clip art player, and then Figma has swept in. And it said, okay, uh, there is a, there is a middle ground. There is an E class in between the C and the S class. It's a Mercedes metaphor. But this company is just incredible. If you look at, look at Uber, Uber burnt $21 billion from 2009 to 2021. This company has raised 750 million and has a billion and a half on its balance sheet, meaning that it's, it's operationally run incredibly well. And then there's this, um, I think it's called the score or the SAS score.
7:53 Speaker 04 I forget what it's called, but it's essentially you add or the rule of 40. You add the growth rate plus, plus the profitability of the operating margins. And if it's above 40, you have a great SAS company. This company is trading at 64, which puts it at the top, in the top 5% of all SAS companies. And then I was used to evaluate at the end of the year, L2's metrics, my subscription-based analytics company, based on logo renewal and dollar renewal, or what they call net retention. And the net retention or the dollar renewal at Figma is 134%, meaning that if a customer's spending $100 on Figma the next year, and you take out people who don't renew, on average,
8:37 Speaker 04 they're spending $134 or $34 more per year. The metrics on this thing are just incredibly strong. It's in a category that's growing. The metaphor I would use is that it's OpenAI to search, and that is, I think Adobe is going to be just fine. It's still the market leader, little bit over-engineered, and the AI or the OpenAI is Figma coming in with kind of a more, I don't know, collaborative, that's what they're sort of known for, they're really good at collaboration, 80% of the Fortune 2000 are using the product. I think this, and I want you to talk about this, I think this is the, every year we pick an IPO, last year we picked Reddit, the year before Lemonade, the year before Airbnb,
9:21 Speaker 04 this is my pick for IPO of the year. I think this thing is going to scream out of the gates.
9:26 Ed Elson? Yeah, I'm 100% with you. I think, I think we're looking at the IPO of the year, and we'll see throughout the day, any predict, I mean, it sounds like you think the stock is going to see a massive pop, is that right?
9:37 Speaker 04 So, managements have learned that in an IPO, it's not only a fundraising event, but a branding event, and they're willing to, they're willing to price it below the market. I have, as I referenced before, I've been calling around trying to find shares, I can't find them, and the most recent number I've heard is that this IPO, a good IPO is usually 12x over-subscribed, people put in an order for $1 million, thinking they'll get clipped back, and so it's 12x over-subscribed. The latest number I heard is this, this thing is 40x over-subscribed. So I think this spring has wound so tight, and for people who are fortunate enough to get into this IPO, I think you could see, and it's dangerous to put numbers on it, I think this thing could explode. I think this is the-
10:20 Speaker 04 The biggest IPO of what I'll call a real company, not a fashionable crypto company, since Reddit or an Airbnb. But yeah, I think
10:29 Ed Elson? Hundred percent.
10:30 Speaker 04 My prediction here is this thing is up dramatically on the first trade. What are your thoughts? What do you think is going to happen here?
10:36 Ed Elson? Massive pop, huge pop, no question about it. I mean, there's, there's the demand that we're seeing, as you say, 40 times oversubscribed. I love that anecdote that you tried. I mean, if anyone should be able to get in to the latest tech IPO, it's you. So the fact that
10:53 Speaker 04 You know it the most, my brother. Goldman and Jay, if they only, if they only cared what Adam Ellison thought, I should absolutely been this IPO, but now they want to go with people like BlackRock and Blackstone.
11:06 Ed Elson? The fact that you give Goldman a call, and not only is the answer no, but he knows what the question is.
11:11 Speaker 04 He knows who I'm calling. Hundred percent.
11:13 Ed Elson? That to me tells me that the demand is just through the roof on this thing. So that's the demand side of it. But then you can also just look at the fundamentals of it. Just think about a couple of years ago, when we were discussing the acquisition of this company by Adobe. And Adobe wanted to buy the company for $20 billion. And, you know, we talked about that at the time, didn't go through because the, the EU antitrust division didn't let them, which by the way, is a great thing for retail investors, and that's another talk track. But $20 billion back in 2023, I believe. And since then, revenue's gone from $500 million to $820 million. And yet the company's being priced below the acquisition
11:56 Ed Elson? price. We're looking at less than $19 billion for this thing. So both on a fundamentals level and in terms of the hype and demand, I think you're going to see a huge pop. We'll see. I, I, I hope we don't get proven wrong, but that, that would be my guess.
12:13 Speaker 04 Yeah, but the, the observation here, other than a desperate professor trying to find, trying to find shares in a hot IPO is The learning here is that regulation and antitrust are really important. And there's a certain trope fomented by the far right and by incumbents that, oh, no, you don't need antitrust. Let, let your thoroughbreds run and acquire companies. I believe the acquisition offer was late 2022 and it was valued in the company at 50 times revenues. Now investors, if you can get in on this, are going to be able to buy the company for 16 to 20 times. And so investors win here. Investors have an opportunity to invest in a company that's growing faster, that it's a disruptor, and they get access
12:58 Speaker 04 to a different stock to diversify in the space of design as opposed to just piling into Adobe, which is a great company. Let's talk about clients. Now organizations, corporations, have a second competitor that they can negotiate with, which forces Adobe, Adobe Express is much more collaborative. The reason why they're much more collaborative and they've invested a shit ton of money in R and D to become more collaborative is they feel Sigma nipping at their heels. Sigma, what's so interesting about this is Sigma got a billion dollar breakup fee. They took 750 million of that, imported into R and D in 2024. So you saw R and D spending go up. Employees win. Typically, when a company is acquired, 18% of the people
13:42 Speaker 04 at the acquired company end up leaving. In an ITO, you end up with hiring of, of 23%. So it's an increase in employment. So clients, corporations win because there's more competition, which means people have to come up with better products at a lower price, i.e. innovation. Investors win because they have another opportunity to diversify and invest in a pure play that's growing faster. And the employment market wins, tax, more tax revenue. I mean, this is just, this is why competition is so important. And the lesson here is that good regulation matters and it works. And what's most interesting, I find about this old thing. Is that it wasn't our FTC or DOJ that created a great independent company and competitor
14:26 Speaker 04 that grows the economy, it was EU regulators and that is the FTC and the DOJ and what it could best be described as a deep slumber of antitrust in the United States.
14:37 Ed Elson? Exactly.
14:37 Speaker 04 Was going to let this go through and then the EU said, sorry girlfriend, let this go through. And because they wouldn't let it go through, the deal didn't go through. And here we are with an opportunity to invest in a company at 18 times revenues as opposed to 50 times revenues. So EU-
14:51 Ed Elson? And remember what people said, people said, oh, the EU's suppressing innovation. Meanwhile, Adobe invests more in R and D, you see massive AI investment from Figma. And now you get to invest in this company and you don't have to, I mean, now you can get some real exposure to this versus again, as you said, piling into Adobe and that would have been your option otherwise.
15:12 Speaker 04 Yeah. And like this is, this is a case study and the good regulation and competition create economic growth and wins across our tax base, employee base and give people better products at a lower price.
15:24 Ed Elson? Yeah.
15:24 Speaker 04 So let's take a guess. So I'm comfortable saying that this is crop team markets IPO of 2025 unless something else blows our socks off. We're excited about this one. Let's take a guess. First trade, where do you think it's up from the pricing?
15:38 Ed Elson? I'm going to go 30, 30% up.
15:40 Speaker 04 Yeah, that sounds right. I'm going to go, I'm-
15:42 Ed Elson? What do you think?
15:43 Speaker 04 I'm going to go 40 or 50. I think the spring has, has wound so tight here. There's been such a, not only is the mark, is there a dearth of IPOs, as you have pointed out, there's a dearth of great companies going public that aren't fashionable, not to ship post on circle, but it's fast, crypto is fashionable right now. This is not fashionable. This is just a great company with great underlying fundamentals that can sort of justify, you know, a, a above market valuation. So I'm, I'm going to take the over under here. I'm going to go that I think it's going to be higher.
16:18 Ed Elson? Okay.
16:18 Speaker 04 Than 30%. I think at some point during the day, it'll be up 40 or 50% or more. I did, this feels very Airbnb-ish to me.
16:27 Ed Elson? Watch the stock tank.
16:28 Speaker 04 There we go. There we go. Crop team markets.
16:33 Ed Elson? Good.
16:34 Speaker 04 Remember that.
16:34 Ed Elson? The inverse, the inverse index. Yeah.
16:36 Speaker 04 There you go.
16:37 Ed Elson? Well, now I'm really praying for a, for a stock pop. Thank you for your time, Scott.
16:42 Speaker 04 Thanks, brother. Good to see you.
16:43 Ed Elson? Good to see you. Bye bye. After the break, a look at the Fed's interest rate decision. Stay with us.
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17:59 Speaker 01 Hey, Bose here. When your next track starts, listen for the decisions that the artist makes. The vocal pushed right up front. The bass that waits half a beat. That sample from a 70s underground gem. Every choice deliberate. With Bose, you'll hear it all. Your music deserves Bose.
18:30 Ed Elson? We're back with Prof G Markets. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady for its fifth straight meeting. However, two Fed governors pushed for an immediate quarter point rate cut. That is the first time since 1993 where more than one Fed governor has dissented. Well, first off, we're going to take a victory lap. Back in May, when most of Wall Street agreed that we would get a rate cut in July, I took the other side of that bet. I predicted we would not get a July rate cut. I predicted that the earliest time we would see rates come down would be September.
19:05 Ed Elson? Expectations for a rate cut, which most traders believe will happen in July, that actually came down a little bit. There was an 80% probability of a rate cut coming in July, and that came down to 70%. So the net net is there is less of an expectation that we will get rate cuts soon in the summer. But it's still sort of a high probability. They think 70%, that's what the markets believe. I'm going to take the other side of this. Yeah. The vibe I got here was that Powell is extremely cautious. He said the words, "wait and see" 11 times in the press conference. And I think what he's doing is he's clearly waiting
19:45 Ed Elson? to get the data. He wants to see what is the actual impact of these tariffs, and we haven't seen that yet. So my prediction after this press conference, I think we're not going to see a rate cut until September, because I think Jerome Powell is waiting for more data. Specifically, I think he wants to see the Q2 GDP report, and that's not going to come out until the end of July. And my view is only then will he decide that he has enough data to actually make a decision, which would mean that the next time that he could potentially cut rates, if that's all true, would be September. Could be possibly even later, but my prediction, this isn't going to happen. We're not going to get any cuts until September at least.
20:27 Ed Elson? So there you have it. No rate cut. We're still at a target rate of 4.25% to 4.5%. And according to Jerome Powell, the Fed has, quote, "made no decisions about whether to cut rates in September." Now, why did he hold rates steady? Well, as I said before, I think Jerome Powell wanted more data. He wanted more information, because as we've discussed many times on the show, if you implement a tariff in April, you're not going to see the economic impact until sometime in the late summer or in the fall, because it just takes a while for the cost of the tariffs to funnel through. So if you were to cut rates in July, you would essentially be making a decision based on zero relevant
21:11 Ed Elson? information. And as we know, Jerome Powell likes to make informed decisions. He likes to see the data and then decide. And so that's why a rate cut wouldn't make sense here. Now, the question then becomes, when will Jerome Powell decide that he is adequately informed? And that is an important question, because as we also saw yesterday, the GDP data for the second quarter just came out, and it looked pretty good. GDP grew 3%, which reversed the contraction we saw in the previous quarter, and it also blew past expectations. So, does that mean then that Jerome Powell now has his evidence? Does he have proof that America's doing well and that tariffs are no problem?
21:56 Ed Elson? Well, probably not, because unfortunately, the reality of this GDP report is that it is just as noisy and misleading as the last one. You might remember, in Q1, GDP fell 0.5%, and a lot of people were quick to say, look, the economy's doing badly. But as we discussed, that number was actually quite misleading. It was, in reality, a byproduct of this wild swing in our trade balance, where businesses imported tons of new products in anticipation of the tariffs, which had this distorting effect on the GDP. Without getting too into the weeds, imports are a tricky thing to measure. They're technically subtracted from GDP in the GDP equation, but they're supposed to
22:41 Ed Elson? be accounted for in our measures of consumption and inventories. The trouble is, the government just doesn't have a great way of measuring inventories. They have to rely on estimates, which is why we saw this huge mismatch in the data last quarter, which made things look way worse than they actually were. So, it wasn't that the economy actually declined 0.5%, it's that the volatility in trade made the data extremely noisy, and as a result, unhelpful. And that's why you're likely to see some serious revisions to that data in the coming months. So, with this GDP report, the same thing is happening, but flipped. Tariffs have been implemented, and imports have dramatically declined.
23:24 Ed Elson? So, now we have the same mismatch, but in the other direction. And that's why GDP grew so sharply. Now, why does any of this matter? Well, because the question is whether or not Jerome Powell is going to look at this GDP data and decide, yes, I should cut rates. And the answer to that question is almost certainly no. The data is way too noisy and it doesn't really tell him anything. He needs to see something else, specifically data that tells him the story of what tariffs are doing to prices. Because remember, that is what this is all about. It's all about inflation. So yes, he might cut rates in September. The markets are saying 50 50.
24:06 Ed Elson? I'm pretty skeptical, but if he does, it won't be because of this report. It'll be because of the inflation data, most likely the PCE data, which is set to come out today. But even if that's good, it's highly possible he'll look at it and conclude, actually, this still doesn't tell me the story of tariffs. Because as we've seen, the pass through is taking a really long time to show up. And it takes even longer when your tariff policy is changing every five minutes. That's the story we're hearing in earnings this week. All of these companies saying, we haven't raised prices yet because we still don't really know what the tariff situation is, but the plan is to raise them.
24:46 Ed Elson? So is that story going to be told in this month's inflation data? No, it won't. So in sum, we're still not in a place that is all that different from where we were three months ago. The data still isn't telling us much. And if we believe that Jerome Powell will only cut rates once he knows what the data is telling him, once he knows what the real story of tariffs is. Then I think if we were to place bets, we would have to bet that he won't cut rates next month. Once again, it's a toss up. The markets are split on this. But given what I think I know about the guy and given what I think I know about the way he makes decisions, I don't think he's going to cut them.
25:38 Ed Elson? A high-profile deal between a tech giant and a media heavyweight finally has a price tag. Amazon will pay the New York Times between 20 and 25 million dollars per year to license its content. The deal allows Amazon to train its AI models on content from the Times and feature excerpts across its products. That means that Alexa can now respond to your questions using Times reporting. Okay, so this is the latest in this AI content licensing story that we've watched unfold over the past couple of years. As you probably already know, a lot of these AI chatbots have been scraping data from books and journals and newspapers, basically
26:20 Ed Elson? anyone who makes content. And the people who make that content have understandably wanted to get compensated. And it's been a struggle. We've seen multiple lawsuits filed against the AI companies. We've seen actors and authors and journalists all coming together to say, hey, stop stealing our stuff. And then we've also seen some deals made. The Financial Times, for example, struck a deal with OpenAI last year. So did News Corp. Reuters struck a deal with multiple AI companies. But this is the very first AI deal we've seen out of the New York Times. And the way that this deal has been presented, at least in the media, is that
27:01 Ed Elson? it is a big win for them. According to the Wall Street Journal, the deal is a, quote, "meaty payday" for New York Times. According to The Verge, "a big price tag." According to LinkedIn News, "a mega content deal." And you know, maybe it is for the New York Times. But I do think it's worth zooming out to consider what this means for the other party in this transaction, what this means for Amazon. For context, Amazon raked in 640 billion dollars in revenue in 2024. AWS alone did more than 100 billion. This deal is worth 20 million dollars, which means that for Amazon, it is equivalent to two months of revenue from one
27:46 Ed Elson? single client in the AWS division.
27:50 Ed Elson? And so you do have to ask yourself, is this really a big price tag? Did the New York Times actually win here? Well, you could certainly make the argument that they did. Again, $20 million for the New York Times is maybe a good amount of money. It's about 1% of its revenues. But even if that seems good to you, you still have to think big picture here. You have to consider what these AI companies would be worth if the data they used to train their models didn't exist. And the answer is zero. These AI companies could not survive if they didn't have access to the content that lives across the internet. And that isn't to say that a company like OpenAI couldn't survive without the New York Times.
28:34 Ed Elson? But it is to say that OpenAI couldn't survive if the New York Times had banded together with every other publisher in America. And they all said in unison, no, you cannot access our content unless you pay us. That right there is the difference between a valuation of $300 billion and a valuation of zero. And so you have to ask, what would that contract be worth? Would it be hundreds of millions? Would it be billions? Would it be hundreds of billions? I don't know. But I'm pretty sure that whatever it would be, it would make a $20 million contract look like peanuts. I don't know for sure, but that would be my guess.
29:17 Ed Elson? So sure, the New York Times had a meaty payday. But if the New York Times were serious about this, a meaty payday would not cut it. If the New York Times were serious, they'd be thinking of ways to double, triple, quadruple its market cap. That's what's at stake here. And once again, despite the flashy headlines, the markets told us the real story here. The New York Times stock initially jumped on the news about 4%, but by market close, that had completely reversed and the stock ended down 1%. Put another way, 20 million in revenue gained, 100 million in market cap lost. So this wasn't a win for the New York Times.
30:01 Ed Elson? This was an opportunity that they decided to miss. Okay, that's it for today. Thanks for listening to Prof G Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Ed Elson. Join us tomorrow for our conversation with Kevin Gordon, Director and Senior Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab.
30:44 Speaker 07 This podcast is supported by Anthropic, the public benefit corporation behind Claude. Everyone's got a hard question about AI. Anthropic was built to surface those questions and share what it finds along the way, because there's hope in hard questions. Ask yours at claude.ai/spotify and keep thinking. That's claude.ai/spotify.
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