Mike Novogratz: Crypto's Investors Have Moved On

Ed Elson and Scott Galloway are joined by Mike Novogratz to discuss why crypto has struggled this year and where he thinks the industry goes from here. They also explore how he got into the AI infrastructure business, why he now considers himself an AI landlord, and whether the AI boom is headed toward a demand crisis. Mike Novogratz is the founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital. Subscribe to the Prof G Markets Youtube Channel Check out our latest Prof G Markets newsletter Follow Prof G Markets on Instagram Follow Ed on Instagram, X and Substack Follow Scott on Instagram Send us your questions or comments by emailing [email protected] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:01Speaker 00

  This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. Good times mean competitions between you and your friends. Like seeing who can throw some pigskin the farthest or rush the field the fastest. Winner gets an ultra because it's not just a superior like beer. It's also giving fans superior access to their favorite sporting events. Superior is worth playing for. Visit michelobultra.com/superioraccess to enter. Enjoy responsibly. Copyright 2026 Anheuser Busch InBev Michelob Ultra Beer, St. Louis, Missouri.

• 0:30Speaker 01

  Flowing ad budget on metrics that look great till the CFO sees them. That's bull spend and marketers are calling it out in dashboard confessions.

• 0:39Speaker 02

  I remember telling my boss, it'll be good for the brand when leads were slow. Yeah, it, it wasn't.

• 0:47Speaker 01

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• 1:00Speaker 03

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• 1:29Scott Galloway?

  Today's number $50.1 million. That's how much a T-Rex named Gus sold for at auction this week, setting a new record for fossils. True story. I actually bought a gun from Gus. He's my small arms dealer.

• 1:55Scott Galloway?

  Has Michael's symbolism forgiven us yet?

• 1:57Ed Elson?

  I'm not going to answer that question. You know why? Because I love the dad jokes. I don't want them to ever end. I know you, you're into the dusty stuff, but like just objectively, the dad jokes are very, very strong.

• 2:08Scott Galloway?

  By the way, did you see my new shades, my new peepers? Look at these.

• 2:11Ed Elson?

  Wow, yeah.

• 2:11Scott Galloway?

  You know where I am, right? You know what's going on here.

• 2:13Ed Elson?

  I know where you are, but maybe our audience doesn't. Where are you?

• 2:16Scott Galloway?

  I don't like to be a Sharon. I don't want to talk about my kids without their permission. I'm in Charlottesville and I'm at orientation, which is fucking ridiculous that I'm even here. I, I woke up yesterday, got to have breakfast with my son, despite that, that, you know, it, how uncool he must have felt having breakfast with me. And then he basically told me that it wasn't really necessary that I dropped him off at his dorm where he was spending a night. But I'm like, no, I'm coming to your dorm with you. I'm up fucking oh dark hundred hours. And so we go to his dorm hauling comforters and there's all these nervous looking parents with their, their like, you know, Sherpas and people bringing shit for one night in the dorms. And I'm not exaggerating. We barely walked in.

• 3:00Scott Galloway?

  He turns around and hugs me and practically body blocks me out of the room. And I'm taking my revenge. I picked up these bad boys.

• 3:10Ed Elson?

  Yeah.

• 3:10Scott Galloway?

  At registration and I've been wearing them. I wore them out last night. So I came down here thinking, and I said to him, I apologize, but during the middle of the day, I'll have like two or three hours of podcasts. I haven't seen him since 8:00 AM yesterday. He hasn't, like, he texted me late night last night. I called him, I'm like, are we getting together? What's to do? We get him dinner and he wrote back, is it important? That's what I've gotten back. And I'm like, no, and he goes, I'll call you later tonight. Didn't call me. Anyway, so I'm in Charlottesville. What are you doing, Ed?

• 3:40Ed Elson?

  That's amazing. That, it sounds like you're having an amazing time. Just to clarify, does he have activities that he has to attend to? Like, is he like meeting all his friends? Cause in that case, I give him a pause because he needs to kind of focus on socializing, being cool, et cetera. Is that what's going on or is he just, you know, chilling without you?

• 4:00Scott Galloway?

  No, he's, he's busy and what you realize, and you have a long time to, to prepare for this emotional trauma. But you, you have this, this, these, these mixed emotions of we've clearly done something right. He's at launch. You don't want a kid clinging to you and worried and calling you and anxious. So we've done something right, but you can't help it. You also, you're just really sad and you want your little boy back. I mean, it is, it's a very emotional time, but the, the, he's busy. So I'm trying to continue talking so I don't get emotional. He's busy, but the, the parents' calendar, they have all day, they have schedules for us. We should not be here.

• 4:41Scott Galloway?

  Let me summarize everything I've learned from the parents' events. Every child is on the verge of a mental breakdown. And, but don't worry, we have 800, 800 numbers and we have a SWAT team. If your kid even blinks suspiciously, a SWAT team of adolescent psychiatrists are going to drop from the skies and give your kid therapy and call you in accordance with HIPAA laws or whatever. And I'm like, if the kid isn't fucked up, the parents are going to be fucked up by the time they leave. This session that has convinced us that every kid is an emotional tide pool.

• 5:20Ed Elson?

  Actually fascinating, this experience for you. It tells you a lot about where college is headed, where young people are headed. It's really interesting, but that's very exciting stuff. I'm, I'm, I'm very, I'm very happy for you and I'm very happy for your son. And I'll, I'll also say, I met your other son for the first time. Talk about well-adjusted kids. Had a great time at the England game with you and your son and your buddies. And I had an incredible experience. England is, I mean, I, it's hard to talk about it because this episode will be out on Friday. So we don't actually know what the result of the semifinals will be. And I'm not going to make any predictions because I don't want to jinx anything.

• 6:03Ed Elson?

  But that was, that was highlights of the year going to the England game. So thank you for bringing me.

• 6:09Scott Galloway?

  I've been talking about this a lot. I feel like all the goodwill that was bottled up between nations in and amongst each other is coming out of this World Cup. It was great to have you there. I've taken my sons to the last three World Cups now. We're going to the final on Sunday. And to see all the UK, all the British fans rowing and to see all the Norwegian fans also singing Sweet Caroline. I just thought it was, and I've described it. It's like cousins who love each other, doing a sleepover when their parents are out of town. And despite the fact their parents are fighting all the time. I've been to World Cups. I was at the World Cup in the US and I think it was 94. I've been to Russia, Qatar, and now this one. This one is the best.

• 6:54Ed Elson?

  Okay. Well, we have a big episode to get into here. We're speaking with the one and only Mike Novogratz. So let's get into it. Today we're speaking with one of the most prominent leaders in the crypto space. He founded Galaxy Digital in 2018, one of the industry's leading digital asset investment firms, and has been investing in crypto for more than a decade. Back in 2013, he invested $7 million of his own money in Bitcoin when it was trading for roughly a hundred dollars a coin. Last year it peaked at more than $126,000, but recently crypto has fallen on hard times. Bitcoin is down 27% year to date. Ethereum has fallen 37% and Solana has fallen 38%.

• 7:36Ed Elson?

  At the same time, AI has emerged as the market's new obsession and few investors have embraced that shift more aggressively than today's guest. So we wanted to talk to someone who's been at the center of both worlds to get his take on where he sees both industries heading from here. This is our conversation with Mike Novogratz, founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital. Mike, great to have you on the show. Thank you so much for joining us. I want to start with crypto and then we'll talk about AI and then we'll talk a little bit about your investment philosophy. But we have to acknowledge what I would say is the elephant in the room, which is Bitcoin is having a rough year. Down 50% from its peak, down 47% from a year ago.

• 8:20Ed Elson?

  The industry itself is struggling right now. I'd love to just get your views on why this is happening, what you make of it and where things go from here.

• 8:30Speaker 06

  Little context, right? Crypto was a storytelling business. I mean, I think I was well-suited for it because I'm a storyteller by nature. And we told the story of this is an important technology. It's going to change the way the world processes information, moves value around, right? Like this was going to be the new plumbing for both the financial markets and the consumer markets. And that was the story. And some very bright and creative entrepreneurs, you know, Arthur Hayes starting, uh, created this idea of the leveraged perpetual future on crypto tokens.

• 9:06Speaker 06

  And that really created the crypto markets because it allowed young people especially, but all people to gamble leveraged on these stories. And it created a tremendous amount of excitement and capital into the system, especially after COVID, when everyone was sitting around at home with nothing to do. And really kind of crypto chapter two, that grand move that brought Ethereum to 4,000 and all these, these tokens that you'd never heard of into multi, you know, tens of billions of dollar market cap, was really fueled by gambling mania of young people wanting to get wealthy. They didn't want 12% returns. They wanted 12,000% returns and.

• 9:51Speaker 06

  A lot of capital got brought into the system. Some of that capital was really well spent, right? Building this infrastructure. And we're now at this crossroads where crypto is actually going to be used. And that blockchain infrastructure, tokenized stuff, is going to get used all over the world. Some with crypto tokens, but not many. Many with traditional assets. Perpetual equities, tokenized equities, stable coins, which are perpetual currency. I mean, which are tokenized currencies. And so it's a really interesting place, a galaxy. We're pivoting of a lot of our business to helping trade by companies build that infrastructure. Right?

• 10:32Speaker 06

  This thing is the wallet where you'll have your tokenized equities, your currencies, your interest rate. This is the neo bank of the future. And you see businesses outside of the U.S. where financial services aren't as good, like Bybit, Binance, Bitget. Like, no one here has heard of Bitget or Bybit. They have 100 million customers each, right? Robinhood has 15 million. So these are monster businesses that connect to the rest of the world. And why crypto is exciting from a U.S. perspective is the rest of the world wants the great American brands. They want to buy Apple and SpaceX and hopefully Galaxy and Google.

• 11:16Speaker 06

  I'd like to be in that category. And so the infrastructure of crypto was going to survive, be hardened and thrive. Those tokens that we used to trade, if it was Avalanche or Solana, some will survive, but many will drift down because they were really association tokens. And a lot of that was the fault of first Jay Clayton and then Gary Gensler of not really making the rules clear and prosecuting people. So people made crap tokens, like Franken tokens, so they could kind of, you know, skirt the rules and were too scared to have a token that gave you economic value.

• 12:00Speaker 06

  And then they were like, well, they're going up anyways. And so I don't have to give away the economic value and I'm getting paid just for, in essence, creating a bunch of meme coins. And now you're seeing that, you know, those things drift down to less relevance, not to oblivion, because those communities still care about them. Right? What was unique about crypto is you build community around a story. That community was fiscally incented to bring more people in their community, actually to drive the price of your token up. And man, they don't want to give up because they're like religions. And so screw with the XRP army and there's hell to pay.

• 12:38Ed Elson?

  It's really interesting to hear you say that because, I mean, you're describing this dynamic where it was this, as you say, speculative gambling mania that really drove this bull market. But it's interesting to hear that coming from you because that has long been the largest criticism of crypto, that some have said that there's something else. It's not just speculation. It's not just gambling. There's something more inherent to it. And it's usually been the crypto bears who say kind of what you're saying, which is it's a lot of leveraged gambling.

• 13:10Speaker 06

  That's what drove the valuations to them. Listen, there is a technology that is being used. I mean, I'm literally doing deals with five or six, hopefully, a big traditional institutions to help build infrastructure. Right? You're going to see that crypto infrastructure, automatic settlement, being able to transfer value over the internet, used all over the place. Again, overseas crypto is a lot more important than is in the U.S. We have great financial services here. And the other thing that's happened is we've got sports betting and same day options. And so, and now betting on Korean stocks, right? Every young kid that used to buy Solana is buying Heineken's or some memory, you know, company.

• 13:54Speaker 06

  And so a lot of the oxygen of that speculative frenzy shifted. And you're just like in macro, you saw it, you know, there was a gold and silver bubble that popped, right? That was the top. That's what tops look like. Crypto had that same topping pattern. It doesn't mean these things go back to zero. I think Bitcoin probably holds 60,000. And if the Clarity Act passes, it's probably a 60/40 that it does. We head up a little bit higher. There's too many people that have bought into the Bitcoin story as its own store of value for it to go away. But someone asked me what crypto was like this year. I was like, MEH, meh. You know, people just aren't as excited about it because there's other things to be excited about.

• 14:38Ed Elson?

  How much of the value at this point, at the current price point? You mentioned that earlier on in the crypto cycle, a lot of the value was kind of propped up by this speculative gambling mania. A lot of that energy has been sucked out of the room. To what extent is that still a part of the crypto story at current price levels in your view?

• 14:59Speaker 06

  Well, listen, if you think about Bitcoin, Bitcoin is a story. It's if you trust me and I trust you, we trust this ecosystem. We're going to store our wealth there. And so it's always, the value comes from trust. And there's a core group of people that that trust hasn't been eroded. And so I think, again, Bitcoin is the most stable of all the cryptos because it has the biggest community. Ethereum, which was the second biggest, had a technology story, not a store of value story, right? Bitcoin was digital gold. Ethereum had, we're going to build the base layer of trust, this giant database for people to build on top of. That story drew people in, but the valuation came because enough people believe it, it becomes money. It becomes money, just like Bitcoin became money.

• 15:43Speaker 06

  And so that, they're still fighting that battle, right? Vitalik kind of having less of an impact, less presence hurt that ecosystem because he was such a charismatic in his own way and brilliant and decent guy, right? I mean, he really is. If anyone gets a hero, a hero award for crypto, it's Vitalik. But, and the rest of them, it's just in smaller and smaller ways, right? What's been hard about this crypto universe is there were lots of fraudsters and hypesters and scamsters. And so as you separate the wheat from the chaff, we'll see which of these big, big

• 16:25Speaker 06

  protocols are used to build on, right? And then there's new ones that come out, right? I mean, Robinhood is pretty interesting to look just how quickly people have jumped on their chain.

• 16:36Scott Galloway?

  I buy that Bitcoin is a legitimate store of value. And consumers on two, both sides of the trade, they get to decide what is a legitimate store of value. If a baseball card or Pokemon cards are a store of value, there's no reason that Bitcoin can't be. So I buy that. What I heard in your earlier comments is you think we're at a bit of a tipping point in terms of the underlying technologies creating utility across different industrial transactions or businesses. I haven't seen that. I feel like we keep getting promised this future where this underlying technology becomes this incredibly efficient plumbing infrastructure for all types of businesses. And I'm not saying it doesn't exist. I just don't.

• 17:19Scott Galloway?

  Can you give us some examples of how an end consumer or an end business is benefiting or is recognizing the benefits of this tipping point of the incorporation of technology into consumers or businesses' lives?

• 17:32Speaker 06

  So the only really big one has been stable coins and with cross-border payments, right? So there's, we have invested in a lot of different businesses that in Latin America and in the rest of the world that do cross-border payments and make that much more efficient. And those are, those are, if you just look at stable coin usage, it's mostly out of the United States. And so some of it's store of value just in dollars instead of Bitcoin, but a lot of it is in transaction value. And so I think stable coins is the first. We're seeing the very beginning of tokenized equities.

• 18:04Ed Elson?

  Explain what that is, Mike.

• 18:05Speaker 06

  You take Galaxy in tokenized form and it's the exact same thing as owning it. So there are 8 billion people on the planet, probably 5.5 billion don't have access to a brokerage account, maybe 6 billion. And so if you're the kid in Bahrain and you want to have some savings, you want to buy a fraction of an Apple share, you're going to be able to buy it. Now, I said earlier, most crypto kids want leverage. And so what's been interesting is the product that has grown faster than tokenized equities is perpetual futures, tokenized perps on real world assets. And so if you think about like this company XYZ, my friend Jeff Lowbill, it was doing, it's doing or annualized a trillion dollars of volume for a six-month-old company.

• 18:49Speaker 06

  But the SpaceX pre-IPO, it got all the volume and it literally predicted the price to the dollar of where it was going to open, right? And so 24/7 trading, non-KYC. So anybody in that 6 billion just shows up with an account and starts buying and selling. And that, I think, shows you the demand globally when you got 6 billion people that are outside of the financial system.

• 19:18Scott Galloway?

  So this question is more about kind of how you've been able to manage your brand and Galaxy's brand. When I think of crypto, I think of some central players. Sort of adjacent is Trump because I would argue, and we'll get to this question, because of his ability to use crypto as an empty vessel for his corruption. Obviously, that's a loaded comment. There's FTX, that didn't end well. There's Michael Saylor, and I think Michael is seen as a legitimate business person. Obviously, there's real substance. Anyone who knows Michael's background knows there's real substance there. And also that he votes in a big way with his feet. I mean, his actions match his conviction.

• 19:59Scott Galloway?

  But at the same time, I think a lot of people look at some of his perma bull on it as, with a decent amount of skepticism.

• 20:09Scott Galloway?

  And then there's Mike Novak Gratz in Galaxy and you're sort of perceived as and granted, I'm known for glazing our guests, but it doesn't mean I don't mean it. But you're sort of seen as the clean, well lit corner of crypto. You haven't been tarnished with this sort of carnival Barker, constant pumping. You're somewhat sanguine, you have, you, you've called out, you know, fraud or, or hype where you see it. Just sort of curious as to why, what are the principles and why do you think you've been able to, if you will, not get infected with what feels like a little bit Barnum and

• 20:49Scott Galloway?

  Bailey slash Adam Newman like Sam Bankman Fried like skepticism here? What, what, what principles do you try and incorporate into the firm and into your own brand that's been able, quite frankly, you just seem a little bit above the fray?

• 21:07Speaker 06

  Well, I mean, part of it is, you know, you, you have your kitchen cabinet in life, right? And so your, your family's part of that. But my macro kitchen cabinet, right? Guys like Paul Jones and Lewis Bacon and Stan Druckenmuller, it would just be embarrassing to not be truthful, right? Like you gotta kind of call a spade a spade in some ways. And because I grew up as a macro trader and in that community, it's my fantasy football league, it's, it's guys I speak to every day, at least one of them every day, they help hold you to integrity, right? The people you surround yourself with in life are the people that hold you to integrity. I mean, you'd like to think it's all internal, but it's also that external, like who's your community that you don't want to disappoint? And I think that's important on like who you surround yourself with in life.

• 21:52Speaker 06

  And so, listen, I, I've spent a bunch of time with Michael Saylor, but what I think I'd say about him is he believes everything he says.

• 21:59Scott Galloway?

  Agreed.

• 22:00Speaker 06

  Sometimes I'm like, Michael, that, that sounds insane, but he, he literally.

• 22:04Scott Galloway?

  No, he might be wrong, but I don't think he's a fraud.

• 22:05Speaker 06

  Right. And I think, listen, he did a lot of good things in pulling Bitcoin in and now it's, you know, one of the weights on Bitcoin is he's got this, he put too much leverage onto a big pile of coins and he's got to dig himself out of this over leveraged position.

• 22:21Ed Elson?

  When you speak with him, Mike, because that, that's the real problem and it's a problem that we all knew and could have predicted would have happened. And we had him on the show and we were like, what happens if it goes down? What happens to your position? And he said, he said something to the effect of like, well, what happens if a meteor strikes tomorrow, which to me was like just a total false equivalence. Now he's in that position, like, does he acknowledge the point that you're making?

• 22:47Speaker 06

  To be fair, and you can call me a, a wimp, I haven't had a really hard conversation with him post this. The last time, you know, I saw him for, you know, at, at length was a year ago, summer when it was all working well. And I, I, I did say, Michael, I'm skeptical. He believed he was going to buy so much Bitcoin, there was no way it could go down. I was like, that's, that's, it's a, it's a, a tautology that doesn't work with me. And, you know, I, I, he also had this fascination with tapping into the fixed income markets, right? The fixed income markets are two and a half, three times the size of the equity markets in the world. And so creating a fixed income product, which he did with his, his, you know, perpetual,

• 23:31Speaker 06

  I mean, the crazy part is not that he would do it because it would really tarnish his brand. If you read the contracts on these perps, you know, S T R C, paying the dividend is optional. I mean, it really is equity. He could turn the dividend off legally and just like tough luck. And he could turn it back on when he wants to. It's not, it doesn't accumulate, it doesn't. And so, you know, he, he was very thoughtful on how he structured these stuff. It just is not thoughtful enough because once you, once you do that, then the game's over. And now he's got a, he's got a big burden to carry unless, listen, what could get Bitcoin going higher again?

• 24:11Speaker 06

  You saw the CPI number today, you know, Kevin Moore breathed a huge sigh of relief. I don't think Kevin hikes rates at this next meeting and he probably doesn't in, in, in the fall if, you know, inflation stays, stays sanguine. But if you flip to where he's cutting and you get clarity passed. And, you know, the Chinese are big players in this and I never believed in the four year cycle, but everyone else did. And the Chinese certainly do. And that cycle kind of kicks back off in October of this year. And so you could, but you can make a narrative where the buyers come back in and, and you get a story again. I don't see a lot of energy in the space. You know, my hedge fund guys used to call me every day.

• 24:56Speaker 06

  Now they call me once every two weeks about crypto, they call about other stuff. Uh, you know, it's just not as exciting of a space. And so all the crypto businesses are kind of batting down the hatches. And we do see what's coming, right? I mean, X, Y, Z is doing a trillion dollars of volume. Like that business didn't exist. Hyperliquid, who created a token where it feels like an equity, right? You, as it does better, the price goes up. Uh, and so the future is kind of out there, but we haven't seen it yet.

• 25:26Ed Elson?

  We'll be right back after the break. And if you're enjoying the show so far, send it to a friend and please follow us on YouTube, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

• 25:46Speaker 00

  This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. Good times mean competitions between you and your friends, like seeing who can throw some pigskin the farthest or rush the field the fastest. Winner gets an ultra because it's not just a superior like beer, it's also giving fans superior access to their favorite sporting events. Superior is worth playing for. Visit michelobultra.com/superioraccess to enter. Enjoy responsibly. Copyright 2026 Anheuser Busch InBev Michelob Ultra Beer, St. Louis, Missouri.

• 26:13Speaker 07

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• 27:14Ed Elson?

  We're back with Prof G Markets. I think that Saylor is, has really become the face of the industry. And when he goes out and he's, says he's selling and then does sell, I mean, that's a, that's a real problem for the industry. But then on the other side, I would say that Trump's involvement, I mean, the fact that we just learned that he, he earned $1.4 billion from crypto last year, he out earned every crypto company in America. He made, he earned more on crypto than Coinbase earned last year, it's just unbelievable. How much do you blame it on him?

• 27:53Speaker 06

  It's so interesting. It's a double edged sword. Like Gensler and the Democrats were terrible on crypto. And as a Democrat, I was like, this is almost not American, like what, what, what they were doing. And Trump ran on, I'm going to take care of crypto and he did. So that initial surge was, okay, we've got an SEC and a CFTC that are going to be very crypto positive. And in quite fact, to be fair to the, the head of the SEC, he said, I remember talking to him right before the inauguration, he said, until there are rules, I'm not going to enforce the rule. Like I'm not going to enforce non-rules. And so in essence, he said, go for it until the clarity act passes. And people did. And so companies like, quite frankly, Hyperliquid and X Y Z, right?

• 28:37Speaker 06

  Non-K Y C companies are growing and thriving, not thinking they're going to have, you know, the same thing that CZ or, or Arthur Hayes did, right? The long arm of the US law getting them, even if they're not US companies. I think. What Trump also, and listen, Paul Atkins telling me this, he said, listen, I'm all about disclosure. If it's disclosed, buyer beware, right? That's a big boy's Republican idea, right? Democrats want to protect the consumer, buyer beware. All of these Trump coins, Wilfi, the meme coin, if you read the frickin' tiny fine print, it says, oh, I, it's not, it's

• 29:19Speaker 06

  not even made all this money from selling the coins. Every transaction, they got a marketing fee. And so it's all in the frickin' fine print. It's like, oh, my goodness.

• 29:28Ed Elson?

  The question is, who reads the fucking fine print?

• 29:31Speaker 06

  Yeah. So like, they made $600 million off Trump coin when it went straight down.

• 29:37Speaker 06

  And then there's also people that sold the coins. And, and so I, listen, it doesn't help at all. Like this Clarity Act, if it, if it doesn't pass, it's going to stumble because of the ethics piece. Because even Republicans are saying, we need some, that's like, it's, it's hard for Republicans. They're running on this thing that looks more and more corrupt. And people are like, and I go down to DC at least once a month now. I'm like, guys, look past it. It's what's good for the country, what's good for the industry. Give clear rules. That's good for any industry. And there were plenty of legal ways to go after a president who's doing bad things, right? From the Malum Inns clause to just you're not allowed to insider trade. Like, we have a Department of Justice who has decided not to pursue cases against what normal Department of Justices would

• 30:22Speaker 06

  pursue. And so I, I argue that why should crypto have a special set of rules, right? You can look at the same thing with the rare earths, the Kazakhstan deal. I mean, there are plenty of deals that, that don't feel up and up. But the bulk was crypto of the wealth. And so that's become a real political hot, hot potato.

• 30:41Ed Elson?

  So what you said before, that kind of crypto is a story. If, if you have an asset that doesn't produce underlying cash flows, doesn't have hard assets, then it is sort of, it's a, it feels like an empty vessel that is filled with a story or a narrative. And that describes a lot of stocks right now. And the word we use is meme, right? Do you think that the energy, and I like the way you described it, there's just more energy elsewhere. Do you think the story shifting to SpaceX and AI, do you think a lot of that mentality or that gestalt, or the kind of person that was buying crypto, is now, quite frankly, more interested in trading, you know, zero day options on SpaceX right now?

• 31:23Speaker 06

  We see it 100%. That's, that's, it's so interesting, because you could, even in non-crypto people, so 100% within crypto people. And I talked to the, those two big Chinese firms I was telling you about, they were like, they're dying to get into the tokenized equity game because their customers want it. Like, people want to go where the heat is. But even in bigger macro, right? Because Trump came out at the beginning and started down, you know, bashing the dollar, really, right? I don't want to be part of the international community, you know, like, they wanted a weak dollar. Now, Besson's changed that a little bit, but the, the, the early story was, screw Canada, screw, we're going to take out, you know, Greenland. And this idea of where should

• 32:08Speaker 06

  you, if you inherit $10 million, Ed, like, what's the safe place to be? Was it in the dollar? Was it, and so everyone wanted gold and silver. Then gold and silver had a huge move in its bubble. It was Bitcoin, and then gold and silver, and then Korean stocks. And so moving the hot potato of where to stay ahead of your neighbor. Because remember, wealth is all about, am I richer than you? Right? It's not an absolute number. It's a relative number. And, and so I think being a wealth manager has gotten so much more complicated, because you have these hyper-vol places which are exaggerated by all leverage. I mean, right now, in the US equity market, we have never, ever had as much leverage. In global markets, this is, we're one of one

• 32:53Speaker 06

  here. We're, we're above 29, we're above 07, we're above 99. And so it's a very dangerous place to be.

• 33:02Ed Elson?

  We had Tom Lee on the show, and he said, I mean, we had him on when Bitcoin was suffering recently. He said he sees Bitcoin going over $100,000 by the end of the year. Do you agree with that? And do you have any predictions for Bitcoin price?

• 33:18Speaker 06

  His lips to God's ears. Listen, can I make a, can I make a, a case for it?

• 33:23Ed Elson?

  Sure.

• 33:24Speaker 06

  We would need Clarity Act, we would need the Fed cutting rates, and we would need some buyer base to get reignited. I'm not seeing those three things. I don't think we cut rates this year. I think we'll be good enough not to hike them. Clarity, I think, is a 60/40, maybe even the two thirds at this point. I, my gut feeling is somehow they find a way across the finish line, and that will help. I don't see where the, the new enthusiasm comes from. But the one thing I would say is every time crypto feels dead, like, something happens, and you're like, whoa. And so I don't want to, I don't want to count it out. But I don't see it. And in the past, like, the easiest crypto bull market of all time was COVID. Because you're

• 34:09Speaker 06

  like, oh, that's my narrative. And I feel like I'm an insider, because I'm one of the storytellers. And I, I figure out, what's the story I can tell to get people excited? And it was, you know, the money printer goes brr, right? Like, we were going to throw tons and tons of money at the COVID problem. And, and you had kids that now had more time to, to sit around and do nothing but gamble.

• 34:32Ed Elson?

  Yeah, it's exactly right. So if you had to predict a price point by the end of the year?

• 34:36Speaker 06

  I think 60 is going to hold, and I think 80, 80 is going to be a top. And if we can get through 80, then 100 is going to be a top. But I would, I would say we're 60/80 for the, the rest of the year, unless we get a real nice setup.

• 34:47Ed Elson?

  Shifting to AI for a moment. And if everyone knows Galaxy Digital as a crypto company, they know you as a crypto investor, which is why I think a lot of people might have been surprised to read a headline in the Wall Street Journal last week, or maybe a couple of weeks ago, it said, quote, "Galaxy Digital Stock Surges on AI Data Center Business." This is a very interesting story. Galaxy Digital is now in the AI business. How did that happen? How did you get into this?

• 35:17Speaker 06

  You know, the crypto community sometimes has a little rainbow that follows it around. The biggest users of energy pre-AI were Bitcoin miners. And we got into Bitcoin mining partly out of another Trump thing, when he came up with the 2020 opportunity zones, or maybe it was 2016. When was the opportunity zone thing came in? But in 2021, it was a monster year in profits in crypto. And I was like, I don't want to pay all this capital gains tax. Let's put it into an opportunity zone. One of the best assets for an opportunity zone within our space was Bitcoin mining. And so having never been a Bitcoin miner, because I didn't like

• 35:59Speaker 06

  the business, I'm like, well, but for this tax advantage, we'll go into Bitcoin mining. And, you know, I said something before, you don't have all the cleanest players in crypto. And after a couple mistakes of hosting our machines at other people's data centers, we decided we wanted to buy our own data center. And now it's 2022, and there's this company that owns a giant data center in Texas that is close to bankruptcy. And we helped them avoid bankruptcy by buying their big data center and lending them some money. And so we, we got our hands on what looked like one of the best Bitcoin mining data centers in

• 36:41Speaker 06

  the country. And we put our machines there. And, and it was a decent Bitcoin mining data center. When AI kicked in, and people started talking about this giant bull market in power, I was like, dude, we own a lot of power. And, you know, so some of it's luck, some of it was us being smart and saying, because everyone wanted to buy it or partner with it, say, no, no, this is, this is more valuable than we think. And now we've developed it. I think this Helios is the campus, I'm pretty certain will be the largest data center in the United States that's not, you know, being built behind the meter. That's, that's part of the grid. We're already 1.6 gigawatts approved. There's another gigawatt that is in the, is in the queue

• 37:27Speaker 06

  that we'll know about in first quarter. But even at 1.6 gigawatts, that is a massive data center. It is.

• 37:36Speaker 06

  For us, it's about a $16 billion capex spend. Then the people that put the chips inside it, probably another 60. So just from what we're already contracted, it's going to be a $75 billion capex bill. If you build the whole thing out, it'll be over 100. The only $100 billion capex build in American history is the interstate highway system. And so for me, it's interesting to become a landlord because our business is we have the power. We go get a lease from somebody who says, I'll rent it from you. You take that lease, we go to the bankers and say, we need to borrow the money to build it. And build it, you got to build on time and on budget.

• 38:21Speaker 06

  And then you collect rent and pray your tenant doesn't go bust.

• 38:24Scott Galloway?

  Exactly. Which is increasingly the question for the AI data center lotals for some of these companies, right?

• 38:31Speaker 06

  Yeah, I look back and I couldn't find an example of a top three market cap company in the world ever going bankrupt. In a 15 year period, right? Nokia got close.

• 38:43Scott Galloway?

  Yeah, but I just want to double tap on that because Amazon lost 92% of its value. So did Cisco, they didn't go bankrupt, but they lost 92. And what I, I want to describe a dynamic and just get your thoughts. It seems to me that in the last 90 days, there's been this dramatic shift potentially from a supply crisis in AI to a demand crisis. And that is a lot of the front end guys who were supposed to be creating this, all this demand on the front end, including Meta, the largest scaled platform in the world. XAI have all of a sudden decided, okay, we overestimated our ability to create demand on the front of these LLMs. But we have this incredible infrastructure we've developed.

• 39:27Scott Galloway?

  And then we have Mike Novogratz, who who recently or fortunately built a bunch of data center capacity for crypto. It feels like, and tell me where I got this wrong, we've moved, we've flipped from a supply crisis where there's not enough compute to potentially not only meeting the supply, because everyone's flipping from demand generation to supply generation for essentially, as far as I can tell, the only one, the only people creating demand right now are Anthropic and OpenAI. Are you worried that the pendulum is swinging the other way to a demand crisis?

• 40:03Speaker 06

  It's going to be a very quick moving pendulum back and forth. And I tell you what, so first of all, most of the power that you've talked about, like of our 1.6 gigawatts, 200 megawatts is now up and running and producing, you know, AI stuff. And so it's just getting started, this power being brought online. But most companies aren't really using AI yet because they're scared to, they don't know how to. We don't have robots yet. Like when you look at the exponential usage of compute, when it starts really happening, like it's hard to think of this, but we're in like the first out of the first inning. And I mean, even in my company, I didn't scream, we got to use more AI.

• 40:47Speaker 06

  We just did a 40 minute call with, you know, Anthropic and their internal team to, because they have a team to help people learn how to use it better. I, I think, and we should be more cutting edge. I think the bulk of America isn't even really using AI yet. And the real use, I mean, the real use cases are going to take so much more power. And so, but I don't think it's a linear line because I think you're right. You're not going to have five of them. You're not going to have, you know, these, you're going to have some guys win and other guys get knocked out. I just think it's early to be, even, even to think Anthropic is going to be the winner. It's early to know.

• 41:28Speaker 06

  Like every time I've counted Elon Musk out in my life, I've been smacked in the jaw.

• 41:34Scott Galloway?

  Tell me about it, brother. So, but that's, you just zeroed in or you've identified what I think is the fulcrum or the epicenter, the, the plates crashing into each other around what is the central question or debate? And that is, are we just scratching the surface? We, we, we didn't even imagine all the different uses for broadband, right? We thought, oh, at some point, if the chip keeps doubling in power and having in cost every 18 months, we're, we're not going to need anymore. And we have invented ways to use broadband a lot faster than even the exponential increase in it. And I absolutely conceptually understand. At the same time, I think there's a countervailing argument that actually it's not,

• 42:18Scott Galloway?

  it's not that we're on the precipice of an explosion in ways to use it. A lot of companies are using it, they're just not getting the return they'd initially anticipated. And then we might, in fact, I think there's a decent thesis that a lot of CFOs are going to say, playtime is over. I need you to either justify the return on investment in our token consumption or to reduce it.

• 42:40Speaker 06

  Well, the, the cost of tokens is going to have to go way down. Here, let me tell you a story and go quick one. I invested, not through Galaxy, a PA investment in this young kid who was building an insurance company, a health insurance company based in Texas, a brilliant kid. He was scientist of the year in the UK when he was like 16, not, not young scientist, scientist of the year. And, you know, he had a great thesis and he was going to use AI, but the thesis was more, can I incentivize people to get tested early on? And then if I do that, I'm going to give them no copay and no premiums because I can drive medical costs, medical expenses down 30%. And he's doing that. So then he says, I'm going to use AI. First it was all the back office, right?

• 43:25Speaker 06

  There's huge amounts of paperwork pushing it at Aetna and US healthcare, right? Aetna, US healthcare, legally they can have a 15% charge. 85% goes to the providers, 15% to them. And they do two to 3% margins. And he said, well, I can AI all the paperwork. Then he said, let me create an AI sales force. And I was like, what? And right there, hundreds of hospitals and, and psychiatrists and healthcare systems that you're trying to sell this to.

• 44:03Speaker 06

  And he created AI Lucy that scanned, scanned the phone book and figured out who my targets were, figured out who to talk to at that target, sent them an email, started the conversation. Start to finish, he got the, he got the, the docu sign. And his sales force of 50 people did 90 clients, 90 in the two, in the two month sales period, did 90 contracts. So basically two each. Lucy, in her first two months, did five times that by herself. And he was like, oh my God.

• 44:46Speaker 06

  And so it's the first example I've seen of someone who's actually created a real superhuman employee that's soup to nuts sales. In a pretty complicated business. And now listen, this boy, he's a boy genius. They think I'm going to make more money out of this company than I have on any venture bet, I hope. And so I'm, I'm a cheerleader. But more importantly, I was like, you know, that's not just processing and making someone more efficient. That literally is superhuman. I just think we're so early in this thing. But it's a good, here's another example. Like Goldman was telling me that they record all the conversations.

• 45:31Speaker 06

  And at the end of the night, they run it through and figure out what's the, what's the collective brain thinking? And he said, well, you get these little robots that follow people around. So if I'm having a conversation with you, the only way the recording is going to be if the robot follows me around. And so now it's recording us talking by the water cooler. That robot has so many, you know, touch points to be able to follow you around and record. Like that's, like, that's the usage where they say it goes infinite, right? That every last device is connected to, to this grid of AI. It's a future that's a weird one. But that's the bet. And if it's just people using it to make their email more efficient, Scott, you're 100% right.

• 46:16Speaker 06

  But it's, you've got to have that imagination that, like there are no driverless cars in New York right now. And I never, I mean, I'm sure there are a couple, but you never see them. Like if in five years, the whole fleet's driverless. And if you got in the new Tesla, you know, Tesla self-drive, I mean, I hadn't done it in years because I was just, you know, take your hands off the wheel and it would stop. Now you just can go like this. I don't know. And I, what I do know is Scott's right in that you're going to have this lurch left, lurch right, lurch left, lurch right. This is not going to be linear. And we're at parabolic, right? Like markets went parabolic. And so I think it's very, the equity markets, I think are very dangerous right now.

• 46:59Scott Galloway?

  Yeah, I guess the, the trouble is, to your point, these futures are totally possible. They're totally on the table. The amount of capital that is going into them, that is being invested, would make you think that they're inevitable. And that's the problem is they're not necessarily inevitable. And similar to what we saw with the dot com boom, there was a massive period of overinvestment, overbuilding, knowing that something would happen, but not necessarily knowing what it would actually be. It does seem quite similar to what we're happening, seeing right now.

• 47:32Speaker 06

  Even the stats I gave you, for us to build out our full data centers, over $100 billion. And that, that'll be the biggest capex. Like Galaxy was a small company. Like we're in a data center company. We're not, you know, we're, you know, 10, 10 plus billion other market cap now. But, but there's a lot that has to go right for us to actually by 2031 say, dude, I spent $100 billion.

• 47:57Scott Galloway?

  See, I think you could spend it. It's dude, it worked is the hard part. I think in this environment, you could probably spend it.

• 48:03Speaker 06

  Well, there are so many, I mean, what you're seeing now in Texas is they're like, okay, stop. Because so many people applied for permits and whatnot. If you looked at, and why the politics are changing on data centers. If you looked at everything that was applied to be built, the whole country would look like one giant data center. I mean, the whole state. And so now all the politicians are like, well, that's not right. And so they're doing some smart things to say, hey, you got to put the money up first. And lots of people are falling away. But I think of what you read about and hear about and are proposed, 10% don't get built. That's still a huge dumper.

• 48:39Scott Galloway?

  We'll be right back. And for even more markets content, sign up for our newsletter at profgmarkets.com.

• 48:56Speaker 00

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• 50:28Ed Elson?

  We're back with Prof G Markets. Mike, when I ask people what the secret was to your success? And just for people who don't know, I mean, it goes, there's a long track record here. You before, I mean, now you've made this incredible AI bet that is paying off. You had the crypto bet that paid off. You started Galaxy Digital. You worked at Goldman for a long time. You made partner by 1998. Before that, you were the captain of the Princeton wrestling team. Princeton along myself, go Tigers helicopter pilot in the New Jersey National Guard. Like you've had a pretty incredible track record.

• 51:04Scott Galloway?

  He's launching a cologne called testosterone. Jesus Christ.

• 51:10Ed Elson?

  So my, my question.

• 51:12Scott Galloway?

  Fucking A.

• 51:13Ed Elson?

  Yes, it's a good, it's a good, it's a good resume. My question, so when I, when I ask people like, what is the secret to Novo? They, I always hear the same thing. Everyone tells me Novo has a risk tolerance unlike anyone I've ever seen consistently.

• 51:32Ed Elson?

  Where does that come from?

• 51:33Speaker 06

  The irony is it start off with fear of failure. Like I was like, you know, I was supposed to do well. Uh, born a cute little kid. My mom told me I was going to be the senator one day. And, and so I had all this pressure to succeed. And actually it stopped a lot of early success. I think my wrestling career would have, might have been better if I wasn't so nervous all the time. Um, and then having failed a couple of times and realized I didn't die. Uh, there was kind of the opposite of fear of failure. It was like, hey, let's go for it. Let's have some fun. And I do have a high risk tolerance, partly, you know, I grew up in a great family. Uh, and I was really happy when I was poor, uh, or middle class. I went to the army. I made $18,000.

• 52:17Speaker 06

  So my, some of my most fun years. And so while I spend a ton of money and I have fun with it, I was never attached to it as much. Uh, and so, uh, listen, there's still a, I don't want to fail gene in me, but it's not the fear of it. And I don't have the fear of looking stupid. Uh, and maybe that's coming from confidence of having been raised by a loving mother or whatever. But I don't have the fear of looking stupid and I've looked stupid a few times, you know? I mean, I've got a Luna tattoo and Luna went to zero.

• 52:49Speaker 06

  You know, I like certainly have looked less than, less than you'd like to. That doesn't scare me so much. I'm like, hey, guys, I got on this thing. We actually made money on it and you know, the world's turned and, uh, and so I do think it comes from some confidence that you get as a young kid. Uh, that, you know, cause otherwise you're, you're going to sit there. And it's always, what do people think about me? If you, if you get away from what people think about you and say, hey, all right. And I used to say it on TV. I said, listen to my employees, I said, you guys are taking a lot of risk, uh, joining this company. Cause crypto might not work and you're going to have taken your great years of your life. I said, all I'm risking, I already have money. I'm risking like reputation.

• 53:34Speaker 06

  I'm going to look like a complete idiot. Uh, I'm willing to do that. Uh, but it's, it's that's that, in my mind was less risk than the 28 year old. Who was at that core of their career saying, I'm going to spend the next six years in this weird industry. And I'm happy for lots of people it paid off. Yeah, I think the journey itself was good enough for most people in this industry to feel like it wasn't a waste. But I don't think you have the same people in this industry in the next five years. Right. They'll take those skills and do other things.

• 54:02Scott Galloway?

  Just, I just want to pause on that, you know, Goldman Sachs, army, multi-billion dollar firm, Princeton, and what you said that really struck me is that if you reverse engineer your own confidence, you reverse engineer it to, to, um, a loving mother. Um, I, I, I'm gonna, I want you to end here, but I just want you to talk a little bit about your parents.

• 54:28Speaker 06

  Yeah, listen, I, I have a middle class family. Uh, my dad just passed and, uh, we were at his funeral and we were like, when we were writing his obituary, you know, some of the siblings were saying, well, he did this. He was an all American and the obituary really became who he was, not what he did. And so I had a really strong, quiet dad who I don't think, you know, I was comparing him to Trump. I don't think my dad has broken one of the seven deadly sins in 50 years. Uh, and you know, he was a very kind of moral center and I had a mom who was really aspirational and a cheerleader and there were seven of us. Uh, she worked as a waitress at one point, you know, to kind of keep selling antique. She was a hustler. She came from Queens.

• 55:12Speaker 06

  She's still alive and is still going strong. And, you know, we just had that kind of idyllic 1970s American, you know, military family. Uh, you know, my mom always told us, uh, that we can be the world. I mean, she, I think she thought we should be the Kennedys. Um, I mean, she named my sister Jackie, my brother Rob Bobby. I was Michael John John. We all names, uh, but it was that era. And, uh, you know, she's a big, she's, she's still a big cheerleader to all of us and all the grandkids. And, you know, my, my dad's funeral, the, the, the, the telling point was there was the caskets going down the island. There are 23 grandkids walking behind it.

• 55:52Speaker 06

  And that legacy of big family, you don't have that as much in America anymore, but it, it does allow you to take more risks. Cause you know, there are some people you're going to screw up and they're going to like, you know, have your back. And when you do well, they're going to take the shit out of you. Right? Like, you know, they're, you're, you're brothers and sisters and big families don't allow you to be special.

• 56:14Scott Galloway?

  So just one, one anecdote that is related. I was doing a podcast with your sister Jacqueline and I was talking about something in my, my usual cynical, depressed manner. She just kind of stopped and she said to me, she looked at me and, and not a, in a sincere way. She said, looked at me and she said, I get the sense you could really use a hug.

• 56:40Scott Galloway?

  And it was so arresting. Like I just wasn't expecting that and I feel like I can handle anything. And I'm like, yeah. And she got up and I got up and she hugged me. So anyways, a weird way of saying like your, your, your mom clearly did something right.

• 56:58Speaker 06

  Yeah, we were, we are a family of huggers and drinkers.

• 57:04Scott Galloway?

  First time a podcast guest has said to me, you need a hug and was right, by the way.

• 57:10Ed Elson?

  I'd like to go back and see what went wrong in that interview to get to that point.

• 57:15Scott Galloway?

  Anyways, bring it, bring us home. I might get on with it.

• 57:18Ed Elson?

  Yeah, just one, one final question here. You said part of your success was you were able to shed a fear of failure and a fear of embarrassment, which I think from all accounts I've heard about you is true. Um, a lot of young people listen to this show and I'm sure a lot of young people would like to know how to get rid of that fear. What would be your advice?

• 57:42Speaker 06

  I had screwed up at Goldman Sachs and I, I was no longer there and I was trying to figure out. I felt so embarrassed with myself and I did this six marathons in a row across the Sahara. And about halfway through in grueling pain, but in this gorgeous, you know, sun and mountains of sand, listening to the same nine songs, because that's all you could get on an MP3 player. I was like, what are you complaining about? You're fucking alive. And that physical piece to it kind of brought me back into my body and into like, you know, stop being a whiny bitch, like go for it again. And, and so I, for me, it's been a, a lot of, I mean, from ayahuasca, trying that journey, understanding.

• 58:25Speaker 06

  Cause one thing about ayahuasca, when you're on it and you're like a puddle on the, on the, on the floor and you're crawling around and you're throwing up, you're like, you realize how idiotic it is to think you're more special than the next guy. You're just like, what in God's name? And so that, all of those things, and I don't think I've reached some, you know, Buddhist state by any stretch. I think I'm as far from it as, as, as most, but that journey helps you kind of de-stress the, the, the, oh God, what are, what are people thinking about me? Right. The other thing is.

• 59:02Speaker 06

  Service, the more you think of your life in service, I want to, I, I, I work really hard to make money because I want to do shit with it. Building a hotel in New Orleans, I'm building a bar park somewhere in the Hamptons, I'm giving money to these different charities, I'm trying to change politics. Like, the moment you start thinking about others, you stop thinking about yourself. And it's the greatest hack for public speaking. If people go out for a wedding toast and they're all nervous, like, what are you guys nervous for? This is your best friend. How about, think about him and just talk about how they're in love with each other and you're happy to be here. And like, wedding toast should have no nerves to them. But most people get nervous. I say you're nervous because what do you think about you? And so if you can flip the

• 59:44Speaker 06

  switch and think of your life in service, it takes a lot of the stress away.

• 59:49Ed Elson?

  That's great advice. Mike Novogratz is the founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital. He was formerly a partner and president of Fortress Investment Group, prior to Fortress. Mike spent 11 years at Goldman Sachs, where he was elected partner in 1998. He also served on the New York Federal Reserve's Investment Advisory Committee on Financial Markets from 2012 to 2015. Today, Mike serves as the chairman of the Bail Project, this is going to be a long one, and has made criminal justice reform a focus of his family's foundation. He also sits on the board of overseers at NYU Langone Medical Center and is board member of Princeton Varsity Club and Jazz Foundation of America. Mike received an avian economics from Princeton University and served as a helicopter pilot in the US Army. That's a great place to end on the resume, Mike. We really appreciate it. Thank you so much.

• 1:00:33Speaker 06

  Guys, thanks. Here's to guys that are follicle challenged.

• 1:00:40Ed Elson?

  This episode was produced by Claire Miller and Alison Weiss and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our video editor is Jorge Carty. Our research team is Dan Shalon, Kristin O'Donoghue, and Mia Silverio. Jake McPherson is our social producer. Drew Burrows is our technical director, and Catherine Dillon is our executive producer. Thank you for listening to Prof G Markets from Prof G Media. If you liked what you heard, give us a follow and join us for a fresh take on markets on Monday.

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