Why No Company Will Win the AI War: The "Rebel Alliance" Thesis | Nick Grossman

Nick Grossman is a General Partner at Union Square Ventures. In this conversation, we break down his "Rebel Alliance" thesis for AI — why he believes the industry is too big for one or two companies to dominate. We also discuss USV's internal multi-agent platform, model routing economics, AI's growing role in venture capital and financial markets, data privacy risks, and what happens to jobs and society as agents get smarter. ===================== BitcoinIRA https://bitcoinira.com/pomp/: Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Take 3 minutes to open your account & get connected to a team of IRA specialists that will guide you through every step of the process. Go to https://bitcoinira.com/pomp/ to earn up to $2,000 in rewards. ===================== Looking for a better place to trade? BloFin gives traders access to deep liquidity, advanced futures products for crypto AND TradFi assets, fast execution, and a clean, intuitive interface—all in one platform. To celebrate their partnership with us, they're giving away $100,000 in Deposit & Trade Rewards. Deposit, trade, and earn rewards based on your activity during the campaign. Check them out at ( https://partner.blofin.com/d/Pomp ). ===================== Simple Mining makes Bitcoin mining simple and accessible for everyone. We offer a premium white glove hosting service, helping you maximize the profitability of Bitcoin mining. For more information on Simple Mining or to get started mining Bitcoin, visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp ===================== Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates investment strategies across Stocks, Commodities, ETFs and Crypto. Whether you’re rotating into AI & Gold, allocating to the S&P 500, or accumulating Bitcoin, Arch Public executes your plan 24/7 without ever taking custody of your assets or funds. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com, and start your FREE automated trading strategy! ===================== 0:00 - Intro0:42 - The "Rebel Alliance" thesis: why one company won't dominate AI7:15 - General-purpose vs. specialized models in USV's portfolio8:40 - Compute costs & the rise of model routing11:14 - Inside USV's internal multi-agent system16:25 - AI's role in venture capital & autonomous investing22:50 - How AI reshapes market signals & information edges27:06 - Apps building models & the fight over your data35:31 - Five-year outlook for the AI stack37:57 - US vs. China: the "philosophy" of AI models40:30 - Personalized AI & where the Rebel Alliance thesis plays43:53 - The dark side: jobs, data centers & society47:44 - AI as a personal superpower & neural implants

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• 1:00Speaker 02

  We're going to absolutely be living in a multi-agent world, thousands, millions of agents, and that there will be agents that kind of look like people or teammates that you talk to. And then there will also be agents that are just embedded in all of our systems. And

• 1:13Speaker 03

  What's going on, guys? Today, we've got a great conversation with Nick Grossman. He's a general partner at Union Square Ventures. And in this conversation, we go deep down the AI rabbit hole. We talk about a thesis that he has called the Rebel Alliance. It's the idea that there's going to be tons of companies and that the AI trend is way, way bigger than you're thinking about. On top of that, we get into some of the nuanced details about what's happening in terms of building this technology, where value is going to accrue. What are the different use cases? Where is the technology going to be valuable? And what are some of the negative trade offs? All of that and much more in this conversation with Nick Grossman. All right, Nick, you guys have a great piece that you put out that talks about the Rebel Alliance when it comes to how the AI industry is going to evolve. What exactly is Rebel Alliance?

• 1:51Speaker 02

  So the Rebel Alliance is our view that AI is too big an opportunity to be dominated by one or two or three companies. And that it's actually forming into a massive ecosystem. And we're seeing that happen in real time as agents and agentic approaches, you know, start to take hold. And that's really two things. It's like agents that interact with consumers as AI doctor agents, AI financial advisor agents, these sort of personified agents. They're going to be approaching every sector and every use case. And then also, under the hood, it's agents as infrastructure. What we're seeing now is the agentic stack is forming like the compute stack formed,

• 2:35Speaker 02

  you know, in the prior eras of the web and mobile, where, you know, not, we're not just talking about what are the products that people interact with, but how are every product going to get built? And that's agents under the hood, agents as infrastructure, fleets of agents that are going to get orchestrated in millions of ways. And what that says to us is that agents and the agentic AI approach is taking over. And it's going to look more like the fabric of computing and apps than I think the thing that a lot of us are maybe afraid of, which is everything collapsing into one or two apps, like a chat GPT or a Claude.

• 3:09Speaker 03

  Now, if you were talking like Peter Thiel, he'd be like competitions for losers. You know, the, I want to find a monopoly. He's done a great job at that throughout his career. You're really arguing that like that is not going to be the end state here?

• 3:21Speaker 02

  Well, there are real network effects in AI, right? In model training and, you know, quality. And so, you know, so far, we've seen compounding advantage going to the big labs. And the big question has been, how far will that take us? And how much of advantage will that accrue? Especially as they go farther up into the application layer and get access into, into more data from more places. So that's the worry that it's going to just compound and that there's going to be an unassailable gravity into the big AI companies. But I think what we're seeing is a couple of things. We're seeing real competition among the models. So it's, you know, it's the frontier models from the big labs, but also the, the leading open source models are really good and they keep getting better and better in lockstep.

• 4:06Speaker 02

  And developers are experiencing a lot of choice and are pitting models against one another. And then we're also seeing that like the world is big and wide. And if you think about the advantage is, is being able to capture data and use that data to improve systems, that data is going to show up in lots and lots of places. And a lot of that data value is going to accrue not just to the model layer, but also the application layer and, and other layers. So it feels like a huge, huge, huge opportunity, you know, for, for, for a lot of folks to, to win.

• 4:40Speaker 03

  Now, let's talk about a couple of different components. And I was telling you before we started that we've been building Sylvia, which is this AI CFO. And so in a weird way, I have half my brain as an investor, half my brain is like operating this business, building the technology and seeing a lot of these nuances that I frankly would not see if I was just sitting in the investor seat. One of the things is you're constantly worried about the big labs who have tens of billions, hundreds of billions of dollars, you know, trillion dollar valuations, thousands of employees saying, that's a nice little business you have there. I'm going to take that for myself.

• 5:13Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 5:13Speaker 03

  Now, we have both had the blessing and the curse where some of the labs have launched competing products and some of them have chosen to go after enterprise or something different. How do most of the companies in your portfolio think about, is it good when there's competition because that validates a space? Is it bad because they have a lot of assets? Are they distracted? And so maybe they like go into a space, but they're not very good at doing it because they're not as focused. Like, what are you seeing?

• 5:35Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, it's, it's definitely both. And I think any entrepreneur building this space is excited about where they can go and also worried about the shadow of the big labs. You know, we refer to it as the kill zone, the AI kill zone. And, you know, where does that land? And how big is it? And how real is it? I think we don't really know the answer. I think folks who are closest to the core skill set of the models today are probably the most worried. And that's things, you know, language, media, law, code, you know, things that are really natively digital, where the core experience of the, of the big products from labs is really good. But I think as you get, so I think there's a lot of worry there. But even within those areas, you know, there are really good companies

• 6:18Speaker 02

  that are building defensibility and specialization and connectivity into the real world. If you look at like AI lawyers or AI doctors or even AI financial advisors, like there's a lot to build. Or even in AI music, you know, it's about developing an experience that is special and unique and really resonates. And, you know, our bet is that while the big labs are amazing at what they're, what they're doing, the idea of being the best at every use case is, is too much, too much to chew.

• 6:48Speaker 03

  And do you feel like that is, you know, kind of, it feels like there's like general purpose models and approach. Then there's this like specialized workflows. And, you know, again, I'll just go right to the example I understand, which is, when I look at OpenAI launched a competing product, the number one takeaway I had was there was some core functionality that was missing. If you were looking at it through the investor lens. So the AI CFO is, you know, trying to serve these investors. And so it's missing some of this core functionality. If you look at it through an engineering lens, it's exactly what you would build because it's like, hey, Plaid and Snap trade these things to have the connectivity. And so it was like, oh, wait a second here. I've read about in legal or medical or, you know, but I don't understand those sectors to the, to the depth to understand the investing stuff. And so to me, it was almost like, are these engineering problems?

• 7:32Speaker 03

  Or are they actually like, almost like customer pain problems that need to be solved? And where does that expertise lie?

• 7:38Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, I think you're taking the bet that, you know, as someone with experience in that field and knowledge and, you know, a feel for the customer need, you can pull the product in the right direction. And I think a lot of entrepreneurs are doing that, not just in categories that are kind of close to the big labs, but in, in other categories too, like factory automation and robotics and all these areas. Like, there's so much expertise to be had in the world. There's so much connectivity to the real world to be kind of implemented. And I think there's a lot of knowledge at the edges. And on top of that, there's just like a lot of different form factors that tools and applications need to take. And I think people are going to pull them in many, many, many ways.

• 8:17Speaker 03

  When you look at your portfolio, how much of it is you guys betting today on like general purpose approach versus specialized workflows? If you had to put percentages?

• 8:26Speaker 02

  That's interesting. It's definitely a combination of both. You know, we're, we have investments up and down the stack from, you know, open approaches to model training to, you know, AI applications focused on, you know, medical and music and other things. And so I think in robotics and lots of others. And so what we're, I think one of the things that makes us bullish about the idea of the Rebel Alliance is that as we watch our teams build applications across all these spaces, to build a really good application, you're using a combination of general models and specialized models. So if you're, you know, building a robot that needs to like navigate around and do patrols around the outside of a, of a factory or whatever,

• 9:09Speaker 02

  you know, there's general reasoning, there's also spatial reasoning, there's local mobility. You know, there's like a whole lot of functions that you need to have. Some of those need to, can run on the cloud. Some of them need to run locally. Like, as you start going out into all the places of, of the world, you start having, you start seeing a real hybrid approach to model, model usage functionality needs. To me, it says the world is going to be multimodal and most use cases are going to be multimodal, a combination of general purpose and specialized.

• 9:40Speaker 03

  Yeah, what I see on the model side is we were one of the fastest growing, I think, on a percentage basis, customers of Claude. Right? Just month over month, we've exploded. The wake up call, actually, you'll find this interesting. I was talking to one of the executives at a public company. And he asked me, he said, how much are you spending on computing? I told him and his eyeballs like thought I was, you're spending more than us. This is like a really big public company. And I was like, oh, that's a problem, right? Like, how is that possible? And so we basically went and almost created like an internal task force. Like, let's get the token cost down. So my takeaways were, one, the token cost was going to become a topic for us. I started talking to other CEOs and they were like, hey, this is too expensive. But the second thing was, I still wanted the intelligence and productivity.

• 10:24Speaker 03

  And it sounded like other CEOs did too. It was just like, I want a lower, you know, unit of intelligence per dollar, if you will. And so I thought that was gonna have to be, that means we have to go find a degraded performance in order to get the lower cost. Now it seems like the consensus is like, well, this whole idea of model routing and the ability to predict the complexity of a query and which model is best at answering it and is it specialized or not. You're seeing that proliferate across the companies that you guys are invested in?

• 10:54Speaker 02

  Definitely. And it's, it's both cost and quality. I just saw a report that came across last week about compute performance using a bunch of different harnesses on top of a bunch of different models. And the best performing coding harness was the Pi open source harness on top of a combination of models that was beating out Claude in Claude code or Opus or in Claude code. And so, and we're seeing a similar story across pretty much everything in our portfolio where when you use, when you can intelligently use a mix of models, you can not only optimize your cost, you can improve your performance by using the best model for the best task

• 11:37Speaker 02

  and orchestrating models that way. So I also came at it thinking it's just about cost and everybody just can't be just like with their pedal on the metal for, you know, the most expensive Claude model, but it's also about optimizing for quality. And I think as everybody moves from kind of prototype phase to deployment phase, right? The whole world has been prototyping with Claude for the last, you know, and opening I models, GPT models for the last nine months. A lot of stuff's moving into production now, and I think we're going to see much more sophisticated orchestration of agents and models, both for, for cost and performance.

• 12:15Speaker 03

  Explain that a little bit more in terms of the orchestration. Like my experience is people think they're talking to one model, but actually the underlying kind of technology is a bunch of models doing different things?

• 12:25Speaker 02

  Yeah, I'll give you an example from something we're building at USV. So we have an internal platform that tracks deals and companies and people and ideas and all this stuff, kind of like a CRM, like our platform.

• 12:35Speaker 03

  Like a Palantir for VC.

• 12:36Speaker 02

  Exactly. And we built it, we built it ourselves over the last nine months, which is crazy. And we just launched something yesterday where every deal, company, idea, potentially person in our platform has an agent attached to it and they're all orchestrated through software. So it's not just a single agent you talk to, it's like thousands of agents that are under the hood in our system. And that's just one way of designing it.

• 13:00Speaker 03

  But what did like the, so like you as a user of this product, you'll come in and say that you've been tracking a company, you want an update on it?

• 13:06Speaker 02

  Yeah, so we have, so we have a, this example makes sense. We have a single agent that's like our deal analyst agent, lives in email, lives in our messaging, whatever. You can ask that agent whatever questions you want. It feels like a team member, right?

• 13:18Speaker 03

  And the types of questions you would ask this agent is like, hey, what's the latest on this deal?

• 13:23Speaker 02

  Yeah, or like research this company for me, tell me more about the founders, who are the competitors, you know, what are some risks? What should I ask them in the next follow, in the next meeting I have with them or whatever? So that's like our main analyst agent that kind of knows about everything. Under the hood, we have a sub-agent that is only focused on that deal. And so we all go to bed at night and that agent wakes up and goes out and, and listens to Twitter and listen and does web searching and, and sees the notes that have come in from our system during the day and it's like reads them, kind of dreams about them, thinks about them, goes and does a bunch of work. And then that work gets like pushed back down into the main like shared context, memory data layer. So the, all the other agents can, you know, benefit from it. So, you know, I don't know that this is the ultimate architecture for agents, but what

• 14:08Speaker 02

  it says to me is that we're gonna absolutely be living in a multi-agent world, thousands, millions of agents, and that there will be agents that kind of look like people or teammates that you talk to. And then there will also be agents that are just embedded in all of our systems. And, you know, we're building a version of that. I'm sure you're building a version of that in Sylvia.

• 14:27Speaker 03

  How much of, let's say this internal product that you guys built, is you're generating some action task, question, whatever, versus it has become, you know, it's somewhat sentient, I'll use sentient not scare everybody, but like it's almost thinking about, here's the thing that he's not asking that he should be asking.

• 14:45Speaker 02

  Yeah, well, I think there's two, two parts to that. One is you wanna prompt them to always be questioning and thinking and, you know, like reasoning and being proactive. And then the second piece is like, what are the triggers that they're working off of, right? So our fleet of worker agents trigger off a bunch of things. Some of them have like a daily, you know, wake up, think about this company, you know, do some work on a, on sort of a timer, like a cron job. Others of them are responding to things that are happening, whether a meeting gets pushed into our notes database or an email comes across our investment team list or some other trigger that happens. So there's sort of triggers that are firing agentic work within our system all day long.

• 15:25Speaker 02

  And, you know, what we, I'm sure where this is going is, cause as the agents get smarter and more capable, they can do more long-running tasks, they can make more decisions on their own. You're seeing that today in coding agents where you can give a coding agent like build me this whole app and they can just go do it like Fable's really amazing at that. So as they can do more long-running tasks, they can also be more proactive, you know, across each step. So I think we're moving from a kind of a chat-based call-response paradigm to more of a proact, to like a trigger-based paradigm where you have cloud agents that can trigger off of things that are happening in your system, to more of a kind of proactive, you know, model. And we're already seeing that, you know, move that way.

• 16:08Speaker 03

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• 17:33Speaker 03

  Then there's a bunch of automation and AI and stuff that's happening. The information's coming back, but like you, as a human, you make the decision, right? You're, you're, you're the, you're the final press yes, no, you know, Caesar type, type thing. There have been many people, we, 10 years ago, I was like, why don't the software just do it at the earliest stages? You know, there's not a lot to look at as you're kind of just like betting, whatever. Can investing get there?

• 17:57Speaker 02

  I think certain kinds of investing can get there.

• 17:59Speaker 03

  Okay.

• 18:00Speaker 02

  Well, like we do venture investing where so much of what we're doing is, you know, really episodic and you have to spend time with, with humans in real life to get to know them and know their company. And it's a very human process, you know, today. And also, you know, we're, we're not trying to have our agents make investment decisions or kind of execute on those investment decisions, although there are people who are trying to build agentic VC, like fully agentic VC, we have a portfolio company that's working on that too. So I think for certain types of deals, it could happen that way. And then outside of venture capital, I mean, already I think the first, you know, fleet

• 18:42Speaker 02

  of investing agents were like trading crypto, you know, and, and things like that where, you know, it's really more programmatic, the market's accessible. You know, this is a kind of a separate conversation, but I think one of the things that's exciting about where the world is going is agents, you know, having wallets and making payments and being more autonomous financial actors. And the places where that's gonna be the easiest are the markets that are the most open and accessible, either via API or because they're, you know, on crypto rails. And so definitely see autonomous investing as a thing that is already happening, gonna keep happening. And then will it happen to VC? I think certainly parts of it and maybe eventually all of it, but I think it'll be

• 19:26Speaker 02

  a little, probably a little slower.

• 19:28Speaker 03

  Some of, I mean, as much as I think we all love and respect YC, like there is somewhat of a joke of like, you know, it's a 10-minute meeting or whatever it is. And so there's a bunch of work that gets done that, again, it's not fully automated, but you could easily see maybe the human component is being compressed. And so the question is like the last mile, right? How much of that is necessary? And I do wonder. It's almost impossible to know, but like, how much of that meeting is less about making this decision versus it is establishing the relationship to open the opportunity for the next round or something?

• 20:01Speaker 02

  That's both. And you, so I think when you think about venture capital deals, the, the style of deal you tend to focus on most is the lead investor who's like really building the relationship and crafting the deal and, you know, taking a, a big role within the company. But in every venture round, there's also lots of follow on dollars. And so one area where I could totally see more automated capital coming to venture deals is like filling in edges of venture rounds where there's, you know, 200,000 or a million or whatever it is left. And maybe there's some signal that a VC kind of like a, a pool of capital agent could follow parameters and, you know, act pretty autonomously and pretty quickly.

• 20:41Speaker 03

  There's a firm that did something like this. I forget the name of, of them.

• 20:44Speaker 02

  I know what you're talking about and I can't remember the name either. We, we have a portfolio company.

• 20:49Speaker 03

  But they basically just followed, they were like, hey, there's, you know, here's the tier one VCs.

• 20:53Speaker 02

  Right.

• 20:54Speaker 03

  If they like lead an up round and they're the lead and it's done in some time, whatever they're like parameters.

• 20:59Speaker 02

  Correct. That looks like programmatic.

• 21:01Speaker 03

  A human still said yes, but it was pretty much done.

• 21:03Speaker 02

  And you could imagine more and more and more of that getting automated. And could you go into other parts of venture, maybe, probably?

• 21:09Speaker 03

  Now, when it comes to agentic investing, one of the things I've been somewhat surprised by is digging a little into the details of like how some of these systems work, there is like automated execution and then there is like full on agentic decision-making and automated execution. I don't think anyone has a problem yet or is concerned about like automated execution because there's still some element of like oversight or parameter set or, you know, if then type statements, whatever. The AI models, I have seen very disperse outcomes. I've seen some people be like, tell me a stock to buy, it's going to double by the end of the year, right? And like, you know, like right goal, pretty crude, you know, just like general prompting. I haven't seen too many success stories from that.

• 21:54Speaker 03

  I've also seen, we see on Sylvia, we actually have one engineer who every couple of days he'll like post, I made X dollars and he'll like explain what he did. And it's some combination of like stock screen plus, you know, maybe he's got some unique view on an industry or something. But really what he's using is again, it's kind of his idea that he's then using to find the idea.

• 22:18Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 22:19Speaker 03

  The full on like, here's, you know, a hundred grand, like knock yourself out. I feel like we're all excited about it. I just don't know if anyone's like fully there yet.

• 22:26Speaker 02

  Yeah. And I can't say that I've heard too many actual stories of that actually happening.

• 22:33Speaker 03

  I know one person who is, who is building this, but what he has been doing is less like high frequency trading type stuff because obviously those guys are excellent at what they do.

• 22:44Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 22:45Speaker 03

  And this is almost more like index creating.

• 22:48Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 22:49Speaker 03

  And so it's like less frequent trading and it's more, I think, just like you can kind of look at, hey, what's going to happen for the next, you know, 90 days.

• 22:55Speaker 02

  Sure.

• 22:56Speaker 03

  Type stuff, right? That to me feels like, okay. And, and his, in his case specifically, the performance is like amazing, but like the average person just like prompting the model, I haven't heard too many.

• 23:07Speaker 02

  Yeah. I've heard some, you know, I know a team that is, you know, using agents to trade frontier markets, so corners of prediction markets and other kind of obscure places where maybe there's some early dislocations that, you know, maybe it's largely retail and maybe an agent can see patterns, you know, before the big institutions get there and arb everything. I don't know. So I do think there are probably existing corners of real markets where you could probably just set an agent free and have it, give it a wallet, load it up.

• 23:37Speaker 03

  Those guys are making money.

• 23:38Speaker 02

  They're making some money. Yeah.

• 23:40Speaker 03

  This is like it's quote unquote, working on a, early.

• 23:43Speaker 02

  Working on a small scale.

• 23:44Speaker 03

  Early, got it. Okay. Um, the other aspect of this that I find fascinating is if you know that the agents start to become more involved in financial markets.

• 23:55Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 23:56Speaker 03

  Well, like every company in the world, every founder in the world starts saying like, how are the decisions made? What, you know, what are the things that matter? And we know this because humans do it. If they know that a bunch of, you know, VCs are all looking to invest in a physical AI, all of a sudden every company's got physical AI in their deck, right? So like, there's always this like cat and mouse game of like the signal gets arbed away. That feels like where AI is really good at like dealing with the complexity, identifying some of the stuff, et cetera, right?

• 24:25Speaker 02

  And, and arbing that away faster. Is that what you mean?

• 24:27Speaker 03

  Yeah, yeah. It's just like, okay, where's the trend shifting? Like, I don't know if you know who Jordi Visser is, but I do this episode with him every Saturday. And one of the things he told me, the best idea he's ever told me, he said to me, a lot of the AI leaders are more public in terms of interviews and stuff than any business leaders ever have been. Like Jensen gives like five interviews a week, right? People want to know what he's thinking. If you take those and you take the transcripts and you put them into the systems and you say, hey, based on what Jensen is talking about, what are the companies that are going to benefit over the next 12 months or something? Like scary accurate.

• 25:01Speaker 02

  Yeah, I bet.

• 25:02Speaker 03

  Right? And so, you know, he tells me this is like a cool idea. Gavin Baker on stage at Sohn Conference. So what I do is he's talking about Tranium being like a big H2 trend.

• 25:12Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 25:13Speaker 03

  Okay. Take it, I go ask the model, say, well, if Tranium is the thing, listen to this interview, whatever, what do you think? A full risk on portfolio, 30% allocation, Marvell. 60 days later, Marvell's up like a hundred percent, right? Now again.

• 25:30Speaker 02

  Did you trade that?

• 25:31Speaker 03

  No, dummy me. Like I heard, I heard Jordi had told me about Marvell, then this is right. And so I'm like, oh, of course, like, you know, I can't now FOMO, right?

• 25:38Speaker 02

  Right.

• 25:39Speaker 03

  But what I started to realize is like, that is almost exactly what great investors do, right? They, they listen to a bunch of complex data points and information, whatever.

• 25:48Speaker 02

  Integrate it.

• 25:49Speaker 03

  And then come up with, here is how I'm going to express this view. That seems like a perfect AI use case.

• 25:54Speaker 02

  For sure. And then the question is, you know, how much of that capability is just generally available to everybody? And then if, if it's available to everybody, then everybody has it and then the market, you know, goes away. And then the question is, what's the difference between having like general intelligence and like specific intelligence?

• 26:14Speaker 03

  How do you think it plays out? Like, we know that obviously the model labs, for some period of time, they have access to the best model that isn't yet publicly released. Forget for a second the government even like approving who gets it, who doesn't, right? Just like in general, they got to test it before they release. We also have heard reports of maybe some of the less popular large models, like basically trading in the market with these models. Does that seem like a path for these guys is like to like hold back the best models for themselves?

• 26:42Speaker 02

  Well, and to do what with them? Is that?

• 26:45Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 26:46Speaker 02

  Like I, and like trade, trade the market with them? That you could just turn the labs into prop funds?

• 26:52Speaker 03

  What is it? SSI? SSI I think is the one that is supposedly rumored to have done this. And I'm kind of torn, right? Like on one hand, if you can navigate the market, like that is the ultimate sign of intelligence.

• 27:02Speaker 02

  For sure.

• 27:03Speaker 03

  So, okay, that would mean the model's really valuable, but like if everyone's just trading against each other with models, like maybe there's not as much alpha, it's like, maybe she goes to cyber security companies or whatever, right?

• 27:12Speaker 02

  Uh, yeah. And it's, you know, that's, I guess a, a point you're making is like, I think we're just at the beginning of understanding how super intelligence goes to market in what package, right? Cause like right now, the labs are selling the models as APIs or as consumer applications, but you can also internalize them, right? So like you could, in theory, develop a frontier model and not sell it and just turn it into a trading fund or something else, you know, where like, it's a little bit like Google, you know, channeling, back in the day, channeling all of its data into making its own product better. And, and we haven't, you know, seen any of the big model companies go this way, but it's

• 27:54Speaker 02

  not inconceivable that there could ultimately be a better business model for developing super intelligence than the ones that we're familiar with today.

• 28:02Speaker 03

  I also think there's like, um, another way to come at this, like the model companies are, their business right now is making the model, right? If you look at, uh, in the crypto world, like Robinhood, the Robinhood chain, now's all the rage, everyone's talking about that. If you look at Revolut, Revolut went and they actually trained a foundation model using much of the data they have. Like it does feel like everyone is always talking about vertical integration as like model up, you know, to the application layer. But like Revolut getting into the model game was not something I think a lot of people were thinking about before they announced that. That's like the opposite direction.

• 28:35Speaker 02

  Going down from the application layer.

• 28:36Speaker 03

  Correct. Yeah. They just have unique data, right?

• 28:39Speaker 02

  And if you have that big of a footprint with that much, uh, that much user, you know, coverage and that much data, I think it's potentially possible to do that depending on what type of model you want to train. I don't know how, uh, how broad their model is versus how narrow. But presumably they, you know, have enough data to train. And I think any really scaled application company is going to have enough data to train models to do certain things. And then there's a question back to your point at the beginning about the pace of generalized models versus specialized models and how those continue to shake out. But I think we'll continue to see application layer companies go down and all to the model layer and also the sort of big labs like go up to the application layer and we'll see where it all lands.

• 29:18Speaker 03

  When you're talking to founders, one of the big things I hear people talking about is I don't want to use XYZ model because I'm like giving away my data. I'm giving them whatever, the zero data retention policies, like do they work, not work? You know, there's a lot of like questions right now about, are you essentially handing over this really valuable resource in exchange for the model?

• 29:41Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 29:42Speaker 03

  What, what is the conversation here with founders and like, do you guys have a specific point of view?

• 29:46Speaker 02

  Yeah. I mean, this, this blew up in the news over the weekend with Alex Karp and Palantir and everything else. And like.

• 29:51Speaker 03

  He has, he has a tendency to be able to get attention.

• 29:53Speaker 02

  He does. He's really good at that.

• 29:57Speaker 02

  You know, I think certainly for starters, everybody is using the enterprise plans with the, you know, the best retention data policies and assuming those are the best they can get. And I think a lot of founders are parallelizing across different models and not necessarily putting all of, you know, their data into any, you know, all of their experience or their, their data streams and traces into, into one place. And then of course, there's a whole stack of data that never reaches the actual model itself, right, which application layer companies can, can uniquely see and learn from. So I think at the, at the stage that we invest at, which is the seed and the A, like very

• 30:41Speaker 02

  early stage, companies are most founders are mostly focused on capability, performance, user experience, can they deliver something that works? And then I think as they scale, they tend to worry more about these structural problems of, you know, making sure that they're sort of protected as best possible, which is why you hear more about it from the biggest companies and are less about it from the early stage startups who are just trying to get something that works going.

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• 33:20Speaker 03

  That's simplemining.io/pomp. Go check it out today and see if you should get into the mining game. Take a step further, like one of the things we've always been tempted to is like, oh, we'd be an amazing data labeling company, right? Like, you know, all these people, you could have them opt in, you could pay them some percentage, whatever. We're probably not going to go down that path, but you could see all these companies that are like, wait a second, I'm generating tons of data, and especially if I can get my users to almost like a YouTube rev share, hey, if I go monetize this data, you get a piece of whatever. What is the conversation with some of these businesses that are like, they're building AI products, but I know the model labs are calling companies saying, hey, we'll pay you a ton of money. Is that a business?

• 34:01Speaker 02

  I think it depends. Okay. You know, you saw the first wave of this happening with all the UGC content, like the Web 2 era UGC content companies seeing, selling data to the labs as a potential adjacent business model. And I think that can work, is like Reddit and Stack Overflow and folks like that. And then, and then today, you know, there were the, the, the first round of big data generation companies like Scale AI and others who, you know, uniquely built a business model around selling data to the labs. And I think that has worked pretty well for a category of companies. Within that category, there's a question of how much it becomes commoditized and, and

• 34:44Speaker 02

  flattened as a, as a business model versus really defensible. We have a portfolio company that does DNA synthesis and, you know, uses like a really patented chemical process to generate data for folks building bio models. And, you know, that's an example to me that feels more defensible and like specialized versus just sort of doing work out in the world. And then I think we see all the time, companies in the middle, like new startups that are getting out and building something. And, you know, the question is, should I take my product direct to consumer? Should I internalize and verticalize? Or should I, you know, sell data or something else as a service to either one of the big labs or some other incumbent?

• 35:27Speaker 02

  And I think we're generally, just as USV, less excited about that category because it feels like you should be looking to capture the most value you can. And depending on how defensible your kind of, your spot is, selling data to the labs, you know, probably may not be the best option. So I think it really kind of depends on where it sits.

• 35:49Speaker 03

  I saw somebody online say something, I think it was this guy, Justin Welsh, said, if you only get paid a flat salary, so you have no equity, no upside, no anything, somebody has figured out how to monetize your skills better than you have?

• 36:03Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 36:04Speaker 03

  In a way, the data, if you're selling it to the model lab, have they figured out a better way to monetize it than you? Like, there's a parallel there.

• 36:11Speaker 02

  Totally. And then you could also argue, you know, one layer above that, you know, those labs are selling inference to, you know, developers who are building applications, and maybe those developers are, you know, capturing the value on top of the inference. So maybe, maybe, maybe, you know, and it depends. Yeah.

• 36:29Speaker 03

  How long do you think we need until we have some of these answers? Because I think you, you're very, I think, open eyed about like, as you guys are working through this, just in talking to you for a little bit, there's a lot of problems. It could go a couple of different ways. I'm assuming as, you know, smart venture capitalists, you're going to make bets in, you know, multiple potential outcomes. Do you guys have a sense, like, hey, five years from now, we'll likely have answers to some of these questions, 10 years, one year?

• 36:50Speaker 02

  Yeah. I mean, I think, you know, if, if, one way, I think it's going to be a little while. Like, I think five years is a, is a decent, you know, time horizon. Things are changing so, so, so fast. But what would, you know, what would we want to see in five years? Five years from now? I think we will see a number of massive public companies in the, in the, in the consumer AI or the business AI space, whether that's health, legal, finance, that aren't the big labs, right? So, or, or industrials or whatever, at the application layer, basically. And so many of those companies are being built right now. A lot of them have really robust, medium sized valuations. I think we're going to see a lot of those like mature.

• 37:35Speaker 02

  Then I think there's a enormous category of what you might think of as middleware companies, like companies in the middle of the agentic stack, whether that's memory or harnesses or orchestration or, you know, payments or whatever. A lot of those are kind of just getting going as agent orchestration is, you know, becoming more of a thing. They're all going to become more important. How many of those become like really big, important companies? Like, we're going to see that happen over the next five years. And then even a layer below that, what does the landscape of actual models look like? Is it OpenAI Anthropic plus some open source Chinese models and that's it? Or can we develop open models here in the US in other ways? We have an investment in a project that's trying to do decentralized model training

• 38:20Speaker 02

  in an open way. Like, there are a bunch of projects that are trying to do some versions of that. So I think we're, what I'm saying is, in five years, we'll have a clearer picture of the model layer, a clearer picture of the middleware layer, and a clearer picture of the application layer. And, you know, the Rebel Alliance thesis, you know, you know, posits that there'll be big, important companies at all three layers that aren't the big labs. And this is not to say the big labs are not amazing companies building incredible products, like they're, what they're doing is magic and.

• 38:48Speaker 03

  It really is.

• 38:49Speaker 02

  Just insane and inspiring. It's an and, not an or.

• 38:54Speaker 03

  Now, you talked a little bit about like open source versus closed source. I think there's also this like America versus China component to it.

• 39:00Speaker 02

  Sure.

• 39:01Speaker 03

  It feels like to me, and maybe I'm missing some, but there's like a performance component. So whenever like an open source model comes out of me, the people are like, you know, which one's better? There's a cost component. And then there is like a data security component of like, I don't want to give my data, or I can self-host or whatever. The fourth one, though, which I have not heard a lot of people talk about, is what I'll just kind of call like the philosophy of the model.

• 39:25Speaker 02

  Go there. The personality.

• 39:27Speaker 03

  Yeah. And just like, and maybe if I just make it really concrete, and as somebody who's building something in finance in particular, you could almost think of like, the West is built on capitalism and the East is built more on like a socialist, you know, communist style kind of thought models. Again, huge generalization, but let's just use those to illustrate the point. If you have an American model, whether it's open or closed, it kind of comes with certain ideals, certain perspective, certain risk-taking is part of the culture.

• 39:53Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 39:54Speaker 03

  The East model may not have that. It may be more of a socialist type approach. And so even if you have all the security, the performance, the cost, if the like answers, the weights are different.

• 40:03Speaker 02

  For sure.

• 40:04Speaker 03

  So how do you think about that type of stuff?

• 40:06Speaker 02

  I think it's yet another vector of competition and choice.

• 40:10Speaker 03

  Yeah. And this is like in the last week, we started to think about this, right? This is not something I've been thinking about for a long time.

• 40:15Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 40:15Speaker 03

  So it feels like it's like a wide open thing that people just haven't really come to conclusion.

• 40:18Speaker 02

  Yeah. And it's, it's gonna take us a while to understand these nuances. You know, we have another portfolio company called Cradle that does these very nuanced model challenges to try and tease out the personalities of the models.

• 40:33Speaker 03

  Oh, interesting.

• 40:33Speaker 02

  They just published a report a couple of weeks ago about which models lie to you the most, whether it's Grok or Fable or whatever. Turns out Fable in their first test lied the most. Anyway, so it's just, I think that these kinds of questions are nuanced and are not covered by your standard like software engineering benchmarks, where I think so far it's just like, how well can the agents code? That's more or less been the most important question. As we have agents doing more, you know, different kinds of things up and down the stack, you know, these questions of its personality or philosophy are going to come up and we're going to have to figure out ways to test them and understand those contours. And then, you know, depending on what you're building, you may want

• 41:16Speaker 02

  a model that's more Eastern leaning or more Western leaning or more woke or less woke or whatever, you know? And I think we're just starting to figure that out.

• 41:26Speaker 03

  When you start thinking about different use cases for different things, like in a weird way, I was having this debate with a friend of mine, think of like therapy, you know? My like general framework, I think is like, if you want a child to learn, you give them one-on-one tutoring, right? If you want somebody to be healthy, like personal, private, you know, healthcare, whatever. We think finance, you get personalized experience through Sylvia. But therapy is, on one hand, you could make a strong argument, like actually people just need tough love and like, you know, shut the hell up and go out there, which I think, again, you know, doesn't, it's not a one size fits all solution, but there's plenty of people who'd make that argument. There's also a huge population of people who'd be like, hey, we need to be more empathetic and all stuff. Well, like kind of the model you choose.

• 42:07Speaker 02

  Definitely.

• 42:08Speaker 03

  May have different.

• 42:10Speaker 02

  Well, the model and the application on top of it, right? And model and the prompt and the system.

• 42:14Speaker 03

  You could help somebody, or in that case, you could hurt somebody.

• 42:17Speaker 02

  I mean, listen, this is why competition and experimentation are good things because as we, and also it speaks to the concept of the Rebel Alliance, right? Like, I don't want there to be a single AI therapist called ChatGPT. Like, that's not a good world for us to land in.

• 42:33Speaker 03

  Hundred percent.

• 42:33Speaker 02

  There should, we should want to live in a world where there are, you know, lots of them with different philosophies and different approaches and different underlying, you know, frameworks and models and, you know, people can, you know, try them all out and move to what feels right and see the results and have the results speak for themselves. And so I think, you know, that's like a core piece of our, of our point of view on all this. And it's about the models themselves and it's also about, you know, how we build on top of them.

• 43:02Speaker 03

  Because of the Rebel Alliance perspective, do you, are you less interested in the large models? Are you less interested in like public types? I know you guys are venture capital, but like, how do you think about, if the Rebel Alliance is the right thesis, which I agree with you, does it box you out from certain areas and maybe other people are investing?

• 43:20Speaker 02

  No, not, I don't think so. I mean, that, you know, the, the whole point of it is that this is so big. It's just unimaginably big. That's really the core idea. And, and it's gonna, the answers are going to come from everywhere at all layers. And, and the big labs are hugely important because they're innovating in the models, they have massive, you know, consumer reach. And also they're going to be the first to land in the public markets. And, you know, they're going to get valued on fundamentals, you know, before anybody else. And so they matter a ton. And when OpenAI and Anthropic go public,

• 43:58Speaker 02

  you know, we'll start to get real analysis of, you know, their business models and their margins and their ambitions, you know? And that's going to ripple back, you know, through the whole venture ecosystem, which it always does. As far as where it lets us play, I think it lets us play kind of everywhere. And, you know, I mentioned the model layer, the middleware layer and the application layer. We're, we're looking at all three. We're also investing at the energy layer because energy is an input, you know, across the board for all AI. And we've been investing in energy for the last, you know, six, six or seven years now as, as part of all this. And so, no, I think there's no shortage of areas for us to invest. And, you know, it's, the, the big labs and the big models make up a really important part of what I think of as the infrastructure of the next internet.

• 44:44Speaker 02

  And then we're going to build everything, you know, next to them and around them.

• 44:49Speaker 03

  Now, the last part that I always kind of think is like, let's keep kind of going down this path is, there's an entire group of people, social belief, that this stuff is negative for humans. So we see data centers, local communities, we see the like job displacement, you know, concerns. I can go on and on about all the different arguments.

• 45:15Speaker 03

  Yes. Are they right? Are they wrong? Is there nuance? How do you think through maybe some of the like non-technical impact if this is as big as you think it is?

• 45:23Speaker 02

  Well, there's no question that it's as big as, bigger than we all think it's going to be. And so that makes it hard to reason about. And I think the other thing that makes it hard to reason about is the rate of change is extremely fast. And so humans are not good at reasoning about exponential change, myself included.

• 45:44Speaker 03

  Many humans may not be good at reasoning at all. I'll put myself in that bucket, right?

• 45:49Speaker 02

  And so I do think it's going to be really big. And I think it's going to be really big in lots of unexpected ways. And, you know, I am, as somebody like, like yourself, who's close to using the technology today, you can feel the magic in it. And so to take the optimistic side of things, are we going to get exponentially better at solving hard problems? Whether that's, you know, making investment decisions or, you know, finding, discovering new drugs, you know, discovering new forms of energy, doing, you know, things in ways that unlock efficiency and make things cheaper and more accessible. Like, I think all of that's going to happen.

• 46:34Speaker 02

  And those are all things that we want as humans.

• 46:40Speaker 02

  And at the same time, it's going to be massively disruptive. It's going to be massively disruptive in terms of jobs. Already, you know, the sort of data center, energy thing is both a trade-off. I think, you know, data centers are the biggest, you know, new consumers of energy. They're putting a lot of strain on the grid. Their, you know, communities are revolting around them. There are also real economic questions around that, which is, you know, what's the right way for, you know, not just on data centers, but in AI broadly, you know, if you believe that a lot of historical jobs are going to go away, you know, what's the right way for humanity to benefit from this? You know, in some sort of ownership model or some other, some other way, these are questions that we don't really have good answers to right now.

• 47:26Speaker 02

  And I am an optimist because I just am, and I, and my job is to, you know, imagine the good possibilities and invest behind them. But I am absolutely also, you know, fully real around the unknowns and the scary things that can happen. And also the, you know, I think with any new technology, whether that's like the steam engine or the automobile or the internet or AI, you know, there are these waves of implications, right? If you just look at something like the automobile, you know, you think of it as a way to get from point A to point B, but you don't think about it as a way that land is going to get developed and, you know, business are going to develop and energy and the environment

• 48:11Speaker 02

  and the internet, same thing, you know, there was sort of the optimistic first phase of the internet and now we have, you know, all the implications of, you know, social media and mental health and politics and all this instability that can kind of come from it. So that's the pattern that keeps happening. I think that's a pattern that's likely to happen here too, possibly even faster. And so I am honestly like equal parts excited and scared.

• 48:39Speaker 03

  When I think about some of the job stuff, a personal experience I had is I went to the doctor with my wife, she was pregnant at the time. Doctor told us some information. We basically double checked it with the AI. Turned out the doctor was wrong, went back. The doctor was like, oh my God, I made a mistake. I'm so sorry, whatever, right? So like there was this like very personal experience that I had and it made me think that one, somebody should create double check your doc.com. Just like, you know, dollar per check or something and like you'll have a great business. But second was I am not of the belief that like doctors are going to be replaced by AI. Sure. Maybe there's like, you know, reading x-rays or something, right? But I do think that there's something

• 49:20Speaker 03

  about like not augmenting just the doctor, but like augmenting the patient who's talking to the doctor.

• 49:27Speaker 02

  Sure.

• 49:28Speaker 03

  And I think people kind of already do this, right? They're like, I'm going to go buy a car. Let me go and talk to the AI about like, what are the things I should care about or whatever. And that feels very underexplored as to like, there's like a displacement argument, but there's also like a consumer protection argument.

• 49:42Speaker 02

  Yeah. Well, it's like a personal superpowers, right?

• 49:44Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 49:45Speaker 02

  So everybody gets super intelligence, whether that's entering the doctor's office or entering the car dealership or, you know, dealing with a legal, you know, situation. You know, we use a lot of AI to support our legal decisions, but we still work with really talented.

• 50:00Speaker 03

  You guys use lawyers?

• 50:01Speaker 02

  Outside counsel, you know, and I think we're going to keep using both, but I, you know, because of at least today's AI that I have in hand, I can go to our attorneys a little more prepared, right? And a little faster. That's just the same way that you can go to your doctor, you know, a little more prepared. So that's like a today thing, I think. And I do agree that that's an optimistic, empowering, you know, view of the world. And maybe in a couple of years, you know, we have eyeglasses or an earpiece or, you know, neural implant, you know, that gives us that augmentation in real time. And I don't even know.

• 50:35Speaker 03

  How many people?

• 50:36Speaker 02

  What to make of that?

• 50:37Speaker 03

  This is one of my favorite questions to ask friends right now. How many people have to have successfully gotten the neuro implant and safely, it's understood it was safe? Would it take for you to do it?

• 50:48Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 50:49Speaker 03

  Phew.

• 50:50Speaker 02

  10, 100, a million, 10 million? Less than a million.

• 50:54Speaker 03

  Less than a million? Okay.

• 50:55Speaker 02

  Probably, yeah.

• 50:56Speaker 03

  So like.

• 50:57Speaker 02

  More than 100.

• 50:58Speaker 03

  More than 100, less than a million. But like, it's kind of interesting to think through. You're like, uh, the reason I started thinking about this a long time ago was just like, you know, okay, here's the first one. How many?

• 51:07Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 51:08Speaker 03

  I saw a piece of news recently that Neuralink supposedly has done 26 of them. That was a bigger number than I thought.

• 51:14Speaker 02

  I wouldn't have been able to guess that number. That is a real number.

• 51:17Speaker 03

  Right? So like, okay, we're at 26. Again, I'm not going to go do it. But then you start thinking like, well, if I was like a chess master and, you know, like give me some advantage, like again, you know, then they're going to outlaw.

• 51:30Speaker 02

  This is the new steroids, right? It's going to be the new.

• 51:32Speaker 03

  The enhanced games.

• 51:33Speaker 02

  Yeah, exactly.

• 51:34Speaker 03

  The mental games.

• 51:35Speaker 02

  I'd feel better and I don't know, you know, this is not something I've really gone deep on, but I'd feel better with a try before you can buy, try before you buy approach.

• 51:43Speaker 03

  100%.

• 51:44Speaker 02

  If possible.

• 51:45Speaker 03

  Yes.

• 51:46Speaker 02

  But it's got to be coming, right? And I think, you know, I'm not really a sci-fi guy, but you kind of have to go that far now. And that can take you both to really exciting, you know, places and really dark places. And everybody's going to both of them, you know.

• 52:04Speaker 03

  Yeah. You need both. You have to get both. In a weird way, you don't get the benefit without the scary potential downside. And I think a lot about similar to how you have to be an optimist in the private market. It's like impossible to make money as a pessimist. You also, as anyone involved in technology, you have to understand there's these trade-offs and like do your best to kind of bend it positive.

• 52:22Speaker 02

  If you can.

• 52:23Speaker 03

  Yeah. All right. Where can we send people to find you or read more about the Rebel Alliance?

• 52:28Speaker 02

  Yeah, sure. I'm nickgrossman.xyz and you can follow USV at usv.com.

• 52:32Speaker 03

  All right. And then that's where they can read Rebel Alliance.

• 52:34Speaker 02

  Rebel Alliance is blog at usv.com.

• 52:36Speaker 03

  Amazing. All right. Thanks for doing this.

• 52:37Speaker 02

  All right. Thanks, Anthony.