Pod Insights The Pomp Podcast Why Is Bitcoin CRASHING?! | Jordi Visser About this episode Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack. In this conversation, we discuss why bitcoin is down 50% and whether the bear market is over, why he's still buying through the dip, how AI agents will drive bitcoin adoption, and why the rotation from AI hardware to human software is the biggest investment opportunity right now.=======================Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Take out a Figure Crypto-Backed Loan, allowing you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms, 8.91% interest rates, and no prepayment penalties. Or check out Democratized Prime (https://figuremarkets.co/pomp) and earn ~9% APY on real world assets, paid hourly. Unlock your crypto’s potential today at Figure! https://figuremarkets.co/pomp Figure Lending LLC dba Figure (NMLS 1717824). Loans subject to approval. Crypto collateral may be liquidated. Terms apply - see full disclosures at figure.com/disclosures/=======================Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates the buying and selling of your preferred crypto strategies. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com and start your automated trading strategy for free. No catch. No hidden fees. Just smarter trading.=======================Simple Mining makes Bitcoin mining simple and accessible for everyone. We offer a premium white glove hosting service, helping you maximize the profitability of Bitcoin mining. For more information on Simple Mining or to get started mining Bitcoin, visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp=======================0:00 - Intro0:45 - Why bitcoin is down 50% & is the bear market over?6:48 - What would convince Jordi to sell his bitcoin?9:07 - Bitcoin as the S&P 500 of crypto14:02 - Why bitcoin is safer than any company past 203017:45 - Bitcoin volatility vs. the stock market22:22 - The five-layer AI stack & where revenues are missing26:22 - Token budgets & the shift to specialized AI35:10 - Are LLMs now commoditized?40:30 - Peptides as the API key for the human body49:24 - Healthcare, entitlements & the future outlook
Transcript 11,938 words · 4 speakers
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1:00 Speaker 02 There are more AI agents on HTML sites than humans. This is where we're headed. So if you think the world of human beings is going to dominate commerce, it's not. It's AI agents. So if you ask me, what is a direct play on that? I believe Bitcoin is a direct play on agents dominating humans going forward.
1:18 Speaker 03 What's going on, guys? Today we got a great conversation with Jordy Visser. In this conversation, we talk about what's going on with Bitcoin. Why is it selling off? Is Jordy worried? And is he going to sell his Bitcoin? On top of that, we talk about what's going on with Eli Lilly, why he is so convicted that it could be the best AI name for the AI trade. And then we get into a bunch of other second and third order effects of what's going on with the infrastructure build out, artificial intelligence, so much tokens being consumed. And then how does Bitcoin fit into all of this? All that and much more in this conversation with Jordy Visser. All right, Jordy, Bitcoin is down 50% from its all time high. People are freaking out. Michael Saylor sold 32 Bitcoin this week and people think that maybe he doesn't believe anymore. What's your take as to why Bitcoin has fallen so much? And is it over or will Bitcoin recover?
2:00 Speaker 02 So I learned my lesson that last year not to predict levels on the upside. I'm also not going to predict levels on the downside. Last week in my weekend video.
2:11 Speaker 02 I highlighted the difference between a bull market and a bear market. And that's what charts are good for. We're still in a bear market until that changes and until we start seeing some moving averages start to either point higher. But more importantly, we failed at the 200 day moving average a few weeks ago. We started to go down again, all while the stock market was going up nine weeks in a row. So the good news is Bitcoin's not correlated to the stock market anymore. The bad news is it's down 50% off the highs. I wrote a paper last week to, yeah, last week in Substack about taking a stoic approach to everything in life. But it's really important with with markets.
2:51 Speaker 02 And I think for people that are either A frustrated or B people that are really happy and pounding on X in the bearish thing. This bubble is going to unwind, strategy is going to go bust. This is the way it all ends. Well, none of that's true, in my opinion. I also don't believe that Micron can continue to go up every single week. So on one side, we have this whole recognition of hardware. Everything should be bought. We had software go down. Now you've had some of the software names go up. Most of them, so people realize are not true software names. They are AI software names, so cyber names and the Bitcoin miners and things like that. So I think Bitcoin's been lumped in.
3:33 Speaker 02 I'm starting to write about this more. You're going to see a lot more from me. I believe we're at a rotation point that's going to last for at least the next three to six months. And that rotation is we're kind of at a, I don't want to say a market, stock market bubble. What I'll say is a rotation bubble. We've had one group winning and most groups have been losing.
3:54 Speaker 02 Starting to see a rotation. And I think software is going to have a bid, but I don't think when people recognize what I'm going to say with software, it's going to resonate with them. But the software is not going to be the traditional SaaS software. So I think people are going to have to think outside the box on human software. And also the financial guardrails with tokenization and everything. And that's where my attention is focused. So I think Bitcoin's fine. Let it break through the 60,000 level. Maybe it goes down even below that. I don't really care.
4:23 Speaker 03 You told me months ago, four year cycle basically was like a male astrology, right? You're just like, why, why does this four year cycle exist? Who made this up? Why does this thing, uh, it would pay attention to it. Are you a believer yet?
4:36 Speaker 02 No.
4:37 Speaker 03 Why not?
4:37 Speaker 02 Again, um, first of all, I don't do the same thing with the stock market. One thing I will say is this is the first time in that quote unquote four year cycle that stocks are going higher at the same time that Bitcoin is going down. And I don't know whether that's good or bad. My whole belief has been that the only time that crypto can go through the growth that I believe it will go through, which is the transfer of wealth from the fiat system into the crypto side, or at least a merging of the two. That was the whole reason why I focused on AI and focused on crypto. For that to occur, you need to run to a point where, believe it or not, they have to be uncorrelated to some degree. And I think we're at that phase now. So that's the positive side. The negative side is, and again, the thing that has always protected me in life, we
5:20 Speaker 02 all have views on assets, we all have views, and we're all wrong at some period of time. I don't want to get heavily involved with playing Bitcoin or any crypto stuff on the upside until someone else is doing it. I'm not a momentum investor, but at this point, we're not talking about momentum. It's down 50%. So let it start to base, let it look like supply and demand have met a place where it's positive, and then let it break a long-term moving average. There was something, um, this week about Charlie Munger, uh, talking about if I could just have one thing in hindsight, it was the fact that find good companies that you believe in long-term that get back to their 200-week moving average. That's the way I'm focused on Bitcoin.
6:03 Speaker 02 I don't remember where the 200-week moving average is, but the 200-week moving average is a really important thing. And again, if you lock it into what you said, what is the 200-week moving average? Well, that's kind of a four-year moving average. So if the four-year cycle is this, it's fine. I've done a couple of interviews in the past week, and I just want to say this to everyone. I believe that the IPOs that are coming, what Google did this past week, which I'm sure we'll talk about all of these, but I think these are a sign of something important. It's not a stock market bubble to me, but it is a sign that people need a lot of capital right now for what is happening with inside the AI world. And that's an important story. On the flip side, with what's going on with crypto.
6:45 Speaker 02 I think if you would have looked in hindsight for a, what would be a sell the news event? Very similar to what I think might be happening in the hardware side for the time being. An ETF launch, we're still above where we were trading at the ETF launch. Number two, the US government basically decides that crypto is good and the president of the United States says, okay, and he launches a meme coin. If you would have taken those events, which basically occurred in 24 and 25 and said, what would that be? Well, that will be a sell the news event. And yet Bitcoin went higher into those. But I think if you look at it and you go back to how many OGs have been selling and what's been going on? I do think there's been churn that's been happening now since 2024.
7:26 Speaker 02 So for people that are looking for hope, until the charts start giving you hope and you get a, it going higher on bad news type thing, I'm not going to get too into it. I'll still stick with the, the, the, the main thing I said, which is we right now have three month rates that are below inflation. Just wait for the next trend higher in Bitcoin, and I think this will be the one that gets very important.
7:48 Speaker 03 What could convince you to sell your Bitcoin?
7:53 Speaker 02 I know this is gonna, um, not be the answer people want, want to hear, but there's a reason why all of my eggs are not in one basket. I have plenty of things. So does everyone who's investing own things that are probably going to zero? And everyone might sit there and say, no, that's not true. If you own the S and P 500, trust me, you own some things that are going to zero. Bitcoin is not everything in my life. So I believe on where crypto is going to go. I have plenty of things in my portfolio that I'm going to own forever. I really do. Do I think Bitcoin might go to zero? Sure. It's part of the distribution of outcomes. Do I think quantum is going to do it? Do I think it, I think it's a very low probability.
8:36 Speaker 02 So again, everything in my mind is always based on what my father taught me, which is what do I think the upside is? Versus what do I think the downside is? And then what percentage of the bets do I want it to be? It's not everything for me. So if people are sitting there and they have 100% of their wealth in Bitcoin, I think that's very stupid. If they have less than 1%, I think that's very stupid. I believe that it should be at this point in everyone's portfolio, at least 2% to 3%, regardless of what they believe in. So that's the way I'm going to answer the question. It could go to zero. I'm not selling any because it's not that important in my lifetime. If it was, I'd probably be going through it. One thing I have said, I've never sold a single one in it, single Bitcoin. I have traded micro strategy many, many times, got in, got out, got in, got
9:17 Speaker 02 out. I will trade, but I trade more in, in micro strategy. And I really didn't own much Ethereum at all. I've been buying Ethereum during this whole drop. So I'm happy it's going down because I'm putting bits and pieces in. If we start to trend higher, I'm going to treat this like I did Micron last year. I bought Micron from 105 down to 60, all beginning part of last year. And look where it is today. That's the way I view Bitcoin for next year.
9:43 Speaker 03 Jordy, you can't come into the church of a podcast and talk about Ethereum. Why are you buying Ethereum if Bitcoin is so cheap?
9:50 Speaker 02 Well, I'm buying Bitcoin as well. The Ethereum thing again is more of a, an ecosystem thing at this point. I really am betting that the network effects are going to be the big story for next year, for the next 12 months. I think Bitcoin is going to be a participant in this whole situation. I don't know if you saw, I sent you something. So I am working on having a weekly YouTube that is specifically geared towards crypto. Now, to do that, I want to convert for the traditional finance crowd, how they can look at the crypto ecosystem in the same way they look at the S and P 500, which means some sort of sectors or themes with inside. And so
10:31 Speaker 02 for me, Ethereum is a better proxy for that in terms of, I want to bet on the ecosystem. I'm not going to bet solely on Bitcoin. But the reality is when I create an equal weight of 40 separate companies, 34 of them being cryptocurrencies or tokens, six of them being public stocks, all as one index, very similar to my agentic thematic portfolio. Magically, it's extremely correlated to Bitcoin, even when you don't include Bitcoin in it. So for me, that means that the ecosystem is acting the way I think it should. It also means that Bitcoin is what I think it is, which is the S and P 500 of the crypto world. So at some point,
11:07 Speaker 03 It's the king.
11:08 Speaker 02 It's the S and P 500. It's the only thing that lasts at the end of time. And I don't know if we've talked about it. I don't believe any idea or innovation in the history of mankind has ever lasted. There's always a new thing that's better. There's always a new way of doing something that's different. Well, that is what stocks are. That is what tokens are. They're ideas, they're innovations by human beings. And if AI is now going to be creating all of the ideas, that means they're not going to be around that long. There'll be something better that comes up. You're going to start seeing this far more rapidly. That's why when people say, well, what's the bear case on memory? I went very easily. You think human beings are going to solve the memory side? I don't. I think algorithms are going to solve the memory side. When is that going to happen? I don't know, but within five years, I know it will in my head. So when Goldman Sachs says five years from now will be this, I'm like, I don't really care.
11:52 Speaker 02 That's why I stick myself in the AI world. So I just think for this whole thing, when people really think about crypto and they really think about this, you have to make a decision on whether you believe still in the long-term story. And if you don't, you should be out. If you still believe in the long-term story, then it's a gift that you're getting to put things down here. I'm not only buying for me, I mentioned to you early on when we started doing this, that I have strategic Bitcoin reserves for my kids. This is a blessing to me. My business is growing and I'm able to put more of the profits that I have back into Bitcoin for my kids. So if it doesn't work out, sorry, guys, you guys lost out. If it does work out the way I think it will, they're going to be very, very happy in a few years.
12:27 Speaker 03 It's always, I like old school ads because I think that the ad creative used to be very thoughtful, very kind of bold, right? And one of them, I think it's Philippe Patek, has this entire ad campaign that talks about it's not your watch. You're merely taking care of it for the next generation. And this idea that when you buy this, it is not only one going to last, but two is you are going to pass it down. And so now all of a sudden emotion, family and all this stuff gets attached to it. Very powerful ad campaign for obvious reasons. It's very luxury positioning. But the more that I've thought about that campaign in an investment portfolio, especially when you have kids, you start to think about, well, what if I don't think of this portfolio as mine? I think about it as theirs and what do I want to allocate to?
13:12 Speaker 03 Resilience and the ability to have durability from a time horizon really becomes interesting. Now, the reason I think of that is because probably the smartest investor that I know, who I don't want to name, said to me one time that the hardest problem in finance is the intertemporal transfer of wealth. And I was like, that's too smart for me. What does that mean? He basically goes, how do you give yourself money 20 years from now? So this idea, again, of resilience of durability. And historically, I think a lot of families, real estate has been a great asset for them to do. But there are cases where Detroit used to be really popular, and now all of a sudden, maybe the real estate prices aren't what they were at one point. Obviously, COVID, I think, really scared the heck out of a lot of
13:55 Speaker 03 corporate building owners in New York City, for example, right? And it's come back, but there was a period there where people were questioning it. I don't know of an asset more than Bitcoin that people have confidence in over some very long period of time, 50 years, 60 years, is going to continue to do that. And so that's what I think I hear you saying as well is like, look, this is such a long term thing that there's almost nothing that convinced you to sell it. But you understand that doesn't mean it's going to be successful. It's just the thing that you are playing or the exposure you're buying is almost this like durability in the portfolio over a long period. Is that like a fair way to categorize it?
14:30 Speaker 02 Yeah, but so over the course of last year, you've gotten to know me and the viewers and listeners have.
14:38 Speaker 03 You weren't wearing these nice shirts back then. You know, now all of a sudden they've got a fashion icon.
14:44 Speaker 02 So I haven't, it's a Hawaiian shirt. And because I'm in this now library.
14:49 Speaker 03 I think we're going to call it the podcast cathedral. That's what I've been thinking.
14:52 Speaker 02 Okay, the podcast cathedral. So I've decided that it needs a little Hawaiian shirt every day until I head to Maine in three weeks. So here's, here's the thing I'm going to say, I spend a lot of time thinking about what the future is going to look like. And I take bits and pieces from a lot of futurists. So I mentioned yesterday that I met Keith Grossman, and we talked about Kevin Kelly from Wired Magazine. Kevin Kelly had a huge influence in me during the 2014 to 2020 period. I read a lot of his books. He's a futurist that called a lot of things directly right. His angle on this and my belief in Moore's Law, Ray Kurzweil, Singularity, all of that stuff is why I believe in Bitcoin. I think it's ironic that Bitcoin is,
15:36 Speaker 02 as of today, it's a trillion and a half dollar asset. Isn't it ironic that we have SpaceX coming? And it's about a trillion and a half asset? How can people justify buying a company? That not only is not making money right now? And forget Elon, let's leave it alone. He's great. But to make the comparison between Bitcoin and SpaceX, you're still buying something based on your future thought. And when I talk to people who love rocket investments and I go, how is that any different than Bitcoin? How do you have any idea on something that is more than three years out? How do you know the government won't take over SpaceX? How do you know? There's, there's no way to know what the future is going to look like
16:21 Speaker 02 when you're dealing with something that's based on going to Mars, which has never been done before. So when I think of investments and I think of the future, I have a belief in what I think will happen. I don't think investing in the S and P 500 is safe past 2030. I've said that repeatedly because I think AI will disrupt all companies. So for me, I don't think Apple's safe. I don't think Google's safe. I don't think Amazon's safe. So when people look at Bitcoin and they don't think it's safe, I understand that that's their belief. The question is, have they thought a lot about the future? Because one of the reasons that I think Bitcoin is safe is because the consumer, human beings, will not be consuming more than AI agents in a short amount of time. Now, one of the great things about, I know you, you know him and you go through,
17:06 Speaker 02 but one of the great things about Moonpay is the agentic side and being able to talk to someone who knows what's happening with AI agents and involved. It came out on X this week that there are more AI agents on HTML sites than humans. Like, this is where we're headed. So if you think the world of human beings is going to dominate commerce, it's not. It's AI agents. So if you ask me, what is a direct play on that? I believe Bitcoin is a direct play on agents dominating humans going forward.
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18:46 Speaker 03 I agree with you that Bitcoin is a safer bet than any company, just given all of the complexities, all the changes, et cetera, over, let's say, 20 years. Does that then mean, if you get paid for the risk that you take, that companies should be more asymmetric and actually Bitcoin should not be asymmetric because it is "safer," and therefore the return profile should be lower?
19:07 Speaker 02 No. Here's what I'll say is happening in the world today, and here's where I say Bitcoin actually set the framework for this. So what's another positive thing in Bitcoin? Well, this 50% crash has occurred with volatility collapsing. It's not been because of FTX. It's not been... The volatility is going down. So Bitcoin's bleeding like 2% a week. It's not going down 15% in one day anymore. But every day, we're watching the leading stocks in the stock market move eight to 10% a day. Every single one of them. We're seeing individual stocks trading at the highest volatility relative to index vol that we've ever seen. And so this is a representation to me that the traders of the world, which are very zero date to expiration option related.
19:51 Speaker 02 They're very retail related. It's training people to get ready more for parabolas and bubbles and speed crashes, as I've written about. That is what I think we're in now. That means that Bitcoin is acceptable as an asset. Because one of the big negatives was it was too volatile. It's not too volatile anymore relative to the things that are making alpha in the market. So what I see happening is this exponential move, the agentic move is compressing time. And one of the things when I spoke at the New York Stock Exchange this week that I highlighted to people. You have to understand that the MAG7 went from one trillion to 20-plus trillion in basically a decade.
20:29 Speaker 02 Isn't that a bubble? It's a bubble, except for one thing. It just happened over a longer time period. So if Micron can go from 60 to 1100, and then it goes back to 600, and I'm not saying it's going to, but if it does. Was it a bull market? Was it a bear market? Or was it both? And that's what Bitcoin, and then all of a sudden, maybe these aren't four-year cycles. Maybe these are now nine-month cycles. And we've compressed the time. And that's what a bubble is. It's price versus time. And I'll say it again and again, AI is speeding up time. The exponential age is speeding up time at a pace we've never seen before.
21:02 Speaker 03 So there's a couple of pieces of this. First of all, we need more bubbles and we need more billionaires, which I think is two ideas.
21:09 Speaker 02 You're getting both of those.
21:10 Speaker 03 Yeah, both of those ideas, I think, are very counterintuitive to people. But the bubbles bring capital, and you've mentioned that these companies need the capital to build out the infrastructure for what is going to be the future. Now, with Bitcoin, and I think that Micron and some of these other companies are now experiencing the same thing. And so I actually think that there's a very interesting historical analysis of crypto over the last 15 years or so. It may have been the best training ground to be an investor in any asset class. Because what you essentially did is you compressed all these market cycles into a very short period of time. Volatility was magnified in a way that, you know, the stat that I always tell people is 50% drawdown in public equities in the global financial crisis. Bitcoin has gone through that every 18 months for a decade.
21:55 Speaker 02 Yep.
21:55 Speaker 03 Right? So you just see this stuff over and over. Now, the framework that I've used for Bitcoin, why does it go up and then crash, then go up and crash? It's very similar to like a mobile app. So if I created a mobile app with you, we want to go get users, we'd run a marketing campaign. A hundred people come in and sign up. Well, some portion of those people are not going to stay, they're going to churn. So let's say that 30 churn out. We're left with a net gain of 70 people. We run another marketing campaign, another 100 people come in, but 30 of those people churn out. Well, now we have 140 people who are left, right? And you keep doing this, and that's basically what we've seen in Bitcoin. Is you get these big run-ups in price, a bunch of people pile in. You get it kind of bleeds out, some people leave, but you've converted to new people. AI is starting to do this now. And I think that's where you see, even when you get these big moves and there's some drawdown,
22:40 Speaker 03 some portion of those people are not leaving, whether it's passive indexing, whether it's just, you know, longer-term believers, et cetera. We are almost driving more capital into these businesses and they're setting new floors, even if there's volatility in it. And to me, that becomes really interesting because as the companies get bigger and bigger, the dollars being invested are getting bigger, but also the productivity is accelerating, right? You've talked about Eli Lilly and a number of these companies where they're just, they're good capital allocators and they're able to accelerate. And so actually, in a weird way, the bubbles are necessary in order for us to only to build out the infrastructure. But it's also necessary to get capital to appreciate for the investor as well, right?
23:21 Speaker 02 Yeah, and, and so the worst part about this, we're now at a point where when we say AI, let's, let's use forever Jen Sun Yung's five-layer cake. And let's just say that, okay, you got the chips, the energy, the infrastructure, the models and the applications.
23:40 Speaker 02 The only thing that's been monetized or the only thing making money are the chips, the energy and the infrastructure.
23:48 Speaker 02 There's a problem with that eventually. This is all about the build out in preparation for it. And like I said, you eventually do have to get the revenues. There was an interesting interview with the head of the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund. And he interviewed, I don't know the name of the CEO of IBM, but the IBM CEO. And the IBM CEO, who's obviously been involved with AI as long as anyone. I mean, Watson was before Google was even a company. He basically said, when you do the math, and he, and he went through it logically. He's like, a data center now costs, and so people hear this, in the course of basically nine months, a data center for one gigawatt has gone from 50 billion.
24:33 Speaker 02 He was saying it's 60 to 80. And Jensen Huang said in Computex this weekend, it'll very quickly be 80 to 100 billion. So you're talking about massive inflation in building this stuff. That's how bad the bottleneck situation is. And it just shows that, okay, how are we going to keep building this? Smart people are going to solve this. But what the guy said is at these costs for the gigawatts, for, they're not going to be able to make the revenues. Now, I've said repeatedly, this is not a bubble. But what I do agree with is that DeepSeek is in direct competition with the model component of this. I'm not sure a generalist model anymore, you're going to be able to make the money. I don't think the adoption is going to happen on the enterprise side. You brought up Eli Lilly.
25:17 Speaker 02 The reason I believe Eli Lilly, and you can mark this down, we can go back to see it, has a chance to be the largest company in the world and the number one AI company in the world within five years, is because they're building a specialized model. And I think eventually people have to realize that they have their own data center with a thousand GPUs, with all of the data that Eli Lilly has had, this is 100 and. What is it? A 150-year-old company? All the failures, all the successes, all of that data actually matters. I've joked before that I don't know if an asset management company's data is as valuable as they think it is. But I know that all of these trials and things, they started from some intelligence place. And if you combine all this stuff and you combine it with AlphaFold, where they have a partnership with Isomorph.
26:02 Speaker 02 If you combine it with their Nvidia co-innovation lab, if you combine it with Toon Lab, which is their Google X, which means they allow people to use their data center effectively. And the only thing they get is the data, like they get the access to what's going on. They are creating an innovation hub of using data all for human software. So if I think about who's going to get the revenues, well, if a drug company can make their entire process of getting FDA approval efficient, and at the same time, they can benefit by selling better drugs, well, they're getting revenue directly. That's an easy one for me to understand. The other ones I don't understand. So I think people have to realize that in this five-layer cake, we're kind of at the point where every dollar that's generating margins in the S and P 500
26:47 Speaker 02 is commodity related that has inflation. Until we start seeing the application, I think what the IBM CEO said on this, people should go listen to. I don't know if they're going to be able to get the revenues in as quickly as they need it. And that's the issue is if you have bottlenecks and you're spending all this money, you eventually need to get the revenues. And we've seen what Anthropic's ARR looks like. The question is, if that slows for even a month, what are people going to do? You've been involved in this a long time. If a company is growing rapidly and it's parabolic, if they tweak a little bit, think about what happened to OpenAI over the course of last year.
27:20 Speaker 03 Oh, I was just gonna say, OpenAI showed us what happened there. So I want to talk about Eli Lilly a little bit more in a second. But on this general versus specialized workflow, we have direct experience with this, right? We're building CFO Sylvia. We see the actual specialized workflows. And I'll tell you that there are, and I've been talking about this for a couple of months now. And I think finally it is cracking into the mainstream conversation. The single most important thing that I see happening in the AI industry is that the general purpose models were the default. No one knew how to build specialized workflows or any of this stuff. And so OpenAI came out, Anthropic started to push Claude. Everyone basically kind of mandate from heaven to their teams, go use AI. And people listened and they went. And we're now seeing reports of whether it's Amazon or JP Morgan or Uber. They're all reporting that they blew through their token budgets, you know, in a single quarter for the entire year, stuff like that.
28:06 Speaker 03 But people are starting to question, are we getting the value for what we're spending? And they are as AI-pilled as they come, but what they're trying to connect it back to is the ROI. And so what we saw at CFO Sylvia is that we actually gave token consumption to the user. So the user was in charge of how many times they queried, et cetera. So you essentially could think of that as you have uncapped upside for usage of the tokens. But we, as a company, had uncapped expenses because as much as the user want to use it. So then that forced us, if we want to keep costs under control, to go look at how do you efficiently consume tokens? Yep. We have seen a significant reduction in the number of tokens that are used on a per query basis for certain things in the backend, all this kind of stuff.
28:49 Speaker 03 As we went through that process, I started to talk to many of my friends who run companies or have implemented some of this stuff. They're all going through the exact same thing. Yep. They're all trying to figure out if I'm spending hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars per year using some sort of AI system. How do I get the same output, but get a cheaper bill? It's human nature. It's corporate incentive. And so now what I'm starting to see is all of these companies are becoming successful at doing it. And they're all sharing some of the best practices and the engineers are all talking to each other. So in a weird way, it makes Anthropic's revenue growth even more impressive that they are growing at the rate that they're going. At the same time that every single one of their customers is trying to become more efficient in using their service. Right? So you have like a per customer, per token revenue basis is coming down.
29:33 Speaker 03 But your overall revenue is growing so rapidly because the demand is just, you know, insatiable. So when I look at that, it does split the world into general purpose for specialized workflow. I think that finance, I think that healthcare, I think there's very specific areas where it's going to be incredibly difficult. And I think that the general purpose models have waved the white flag. They're admitting it because what are they doing? They're creating JVs, they're creating internal teams, and they're basically saying, we need a biotech team. We need a team that's going to go and we're going to part with a bunch of PE firms and go do accounting rollups or whatever. And they're essentially saying that their general purpose models are not going to be able to compete on a specialized basis. And so a company like Eli Lilly that has a data advantage, has technical capabilities, they've got the infrastructure.
30:17 Speaker 03 It's not hard to see them beating whatever general purpose models are out there for their specific use case, right?
30:23 Speaker 02 Yes, and everything you said gets tied up in the same thing. So for Anthropic, the cost of building, the ability of providing the tokens is going up dramatically. So they have to raise the cost. So users who are very smart are like, wait, wait, wait, I'm not paying for this. So then you start figuring out ways to not pay for it. So Gavin Baker, on an interview about a year ago, sorry, about six months ago, it's amazing how fast this is, he literally said, "The bearish argument for all of the model providers is eventually going to be the edge."
30:56 Speaker 02 So the problem with the edge is the edge is coming sooner than what people think. The data center build out and the borrowing of money and the building of this stuff, this is why I keep saying, there is risk for every one of them. When you, when we talk about Anthropic, and we're like, it's 44, it's not 44 billion. That's the ARR. So like, I want to make sure people realize, going like this for three months does not ensure you'll be doing that for another three years. And there's a lot of factors, and you're naming, if you go through all of the factors you're saying, so let me get, their cost of providing that's going higher. The clients using it are like, wait, wait, wait, my budgets are too high. This is too expensive. I gotta figure ways to do it. Oh magically, I don't need as many
31:38 Speaker 02 tokens. Anthropic doesn't care because they have a waitlist for tokens, so they're still growing. But the issue is, you're still playing with this game of like, well, we need more compute, and they're out there racing to Colossus and to Google and trying to get all this stuff. It just seems very clear to me that there's a problem with bottlenecks and shortages. And oh, by the way, the Strait of Hormuz is still shut, and I can't say this loud enough, the one thing about prediction markets that people need to pay attention to, when you hear all these things of like, the Strait will be reopened by whatever, if you believe that, then go bet on Kalshi, because right now, for the Strait to completely reopen to normal by right before the midterms is less than 50%.
32:20 Speaker 02 So we're getting to the point where all of these bottlenecks are building, and as someone who's a macro person who's focused on the situation of bottlenecks, I want to focus on what Eli Lilly is doing, because you know what they don't depend on? Tokens. They spent the money on a thousand Blackwells to build a data center to be able to take their data. And so you have to think real hard about, why do they have an advantage? Because they are printing money and they can build their own. And so for companies like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, they're going to have to make a choice at some point. Do I want to pay Anthropic? Or is this a way to get started on this? Because they were nowhere seven months ago. And that's what I think is happening. There's a combination of hoarding
33:04 Speaker 02 on the hardware side. There's FOMO on both the model side, but also on the enterprise side. Because Goldman doesn't want to fall behind Morgan, doesn't want to fall behind Bank of America or JP Morgan. So they all have to start spending money because they're like, we have to do something on this. Oh, my gosh, Opus and Claude make it easier than OpenAI. Let's get rid of ChatGPT. But ChatGPT Enterprise was the biggest thing a year ago. So I think people are overestimating this. And that's why the IBM interview is so important.
33:30 Speaker 03 I recently saw one person online say that they have completely eradicated the use of Claude internally, and they've gone to DeepSeek V4.
33:40 Speaker 02 Yep.
33:41 Speaker 03 And they believe that not only is it saving them a lot of money, but they also think that it is a better performance in terms of accuracy, latency, etc. Now, it will be very interesting to watch over the next 30 to 60 days. If more people do not start saying as part of this, hey, what are we getting for the token, you know, bill that we're receiving? Can I get away with using an open source model that maybe we fine tune a little bit?
34:02 Speaker 02 Mm hmm.
34:03 Speaker 03 And get 90%, maybe even better performance than what I'm getting here with Claude. Now, I actually think that this is a pie-expanding exercise. And so Anthropic is going to continue to do well. OpenAI will continue to do well. I think XAI is very underrated in terms of their ability to kind of come out of nowhere and start to get adoption. I also think that whether it's Eli Lilly, Revolut is a business that here in the United States, people don't really talk about a lot, but it is kind of the Robin Hood of Europe. They probably wouldn't like that term, but but just think of them that way as a retail brokerage. They've built their own model, and they've used their own data to be able to do it. And so you go and you look at this and you say, at the end of the day, what people are always going to be incentivized to do is control as much of the stack as possible.
34:46 Speaker 02 Mm hmm.
34:46 Speaker 03 And if you have a model, whether it started as open source that you fine tuned, and you trained, or you are able to actually go and do it, probably similar to what Eli Lilly did. You are going to have such a competitive advantage. It's no different than why are you spending so much money going to every college campus trying to find the smartest new people? You're looking for intelligence, right? Well, what if there are synthetic intelligence that is better than anybody at any college? When I started to think about that, I said, no wonder young people are having a hard time trying to find a job. Because people are saying, I can go and I can get this same intelligence in a different way. I don't have to do recruiting, I don't do all that stuff. Now, with that said, the young people are getting smart. And what are they doing? They're learning how to use the tools.
35:28 Speaker 03 And so you get this ever moving, dynamic environment where everyone is trying to like take a snapshot of the market. And they want everything to be black and white. Anthropic is winning, OpenAI is losing. Closed source versus open source. Young people can't find a job. Eli Lilly is screwed, right? Like whatever the snapshot in time is, people start to extrapolate these kind of hardened thoughts. And my conclusion over the last couple of weeks is the single most important thing you can do right now is to remain with incredible flexibility mentally. Because it is changing very quickly. And if you try to take that static snapshot, you are going to be wrong three weeks later. And so you've got to stay informed. You've got to continue to update kind of your mental models here. And if you do that, that's the best way to kind of navigate all this.
36:09 Speaker 02 Yeah, the only thing I would add, and I don't know if you've felt this and we didn't talk about it, but
36:16 Speaker 02 the LLMs are now commoditized. And what I mean by commoditized, the price is not zero, but the difference between, and I won't say all of them, but I will say Claude and ChatGPT. They're indistinguishable to me in terms of now being able to use them. And I got into a conversation with someone we both know this week, who had just gotten off a plane and mentioned something they did. And I said, oh, I don't really use Claude as much. And I was the person who said, you really have to use Claude, not ChatGPT. So people are starting to ask me like, are you using Codex and ChatGPT? And I'm like, yeah, that's my model. That's it now. Now I'm using both of them.
36:59 Speaker 02 But the reason I say they're commoditized is when you interview someone, and this is the easiest way for, we've both been in the seat. Let's assume that you had four pieces, two pieces of information for each of them. Their grades in school, they both went to the exact same college. They both finished with perfect scores. Their SATs exactly the same and their IQ exactly the same. Now, you're gonna pick the person not based on that then. You're gonna pick it based on the nuances that match with you, what you're looking for, because they're not gonna be the same person. They might have exactly the same scores on everything, which is where I believe the LLMs are now, at least for ChatGPT and Claude. Now, maybe Claude is slightly better at coding, but I'm not really sure about that anymore either.
37:42 Speaker 02 I'm building stuff in Codex every day, and I'm working on a very long project, the longest one I've ever worked on, and I'm doing it in Cursor and Codex. I'm just going back and forth between the two, and it's, I'm doing, because this one is something for the subscribers that to me is really cool, and it's breaking, it's creating a new structure in terms of, in terms of the way I look at the market. But I, it's indistinguishable. So the reason I've chose ChatGPT 5.5 is because it is the better brainstorming partner for me. And when I meet intelligent people, and I love to meet someone who can always puts things in my head that I hadn't thought about. They could speak for an hour and only two things enter, but those two jewels are worth so much to me.
38:26 Speaker 02 ChatGPT does it all the time. Claude almost never does it for me anymore. And when I say never, it may sound like an exaggeration, but for me, it's not. I just believe that the, the critical things that make my brain go, oh, my gosh, happen more in GPT 5.5, and it's not a reflection of the model's abilities, it's a reflection of how it responds to me and can almost feel what I'm looking for better than Claude. It's it better at anticipating what Jordy wants, and that's why I've migrated back towards it.
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41:40 Speaker 03 to discuss. And today you said something to me that was very interesting. I'd love for you to elaborate, which is peptides are the API key for the human body. Now, I have learned throughout my life that there are two types of experts in the world. There are medical doctors.
41:57 Speaker 02 Yes.
41:58 Speaker 03 And then there are the bro scientists. The bro scientists have been very right for a long time. They are the ones who we're talking about. Everyone should be taking creatine. They are the ones who we're talking about, you know, saunas and cold plunges and, you know, all of that type of stuff. They have been on the peptide train for a while now. And it feels like the rest of the world is now saying, oh, peptides, that's interesting. And the bro scientists are saying, you know, come into the warm water. We've been here a while. What is a peptide? Why is it the API key for the human body?
42:33 Speaker 02 So I want to take a step back from just answering this for people at this point.
42:42 Speaker 02 You made a comment which I agree with, and this is the way Wall Street has been separated. People who are not scientists never enter the biotech and pharma world as an investor. And because you can't understand the science, but for some reason, we all became experts at technology. And we think like we know exactly what goes on in a computer and Moore's Law and everything else. And the reason we became experts at it is because that was the way we all made money. So we all own Nvidia. We all go through this. So what I know.
43:13 Speaker 03 I know what a GPU is.
43:17 Speaker 02 The funny thing is, why would people know what an API key is? So an API key and a peptide are basically ways to enter into something with a receptor. Meaning I want to do this. I want to take my data from this software that I pay for. I use my API key. So it's a door into something. So the easiest way to do this is for people to learn that GLP-1s are peptides. Peptides are growing exponentially. So if you had Chris Camillo sitting across from you and he was doing all this TikTok analysis at nighttime. And we said, are peptides big? He'd be like, peptides are huge. How do I make money on peptides?
43:58 Speaker 02 Okay, there was a lot of private companies, but the reality is when you start spending time, well, GLP-1 is the king of peptides. And its growth is enormous, but it's only serving a very small portion. I can't think of a scenario where whatever your view is of GLP-1s. Peptides is now kind of what they've been replaced with. GLP-1s are a little scary to people. But peptides, everyone seems to be migrating towards because now they're on every podcast. Now everyone's talking about them. Google Trends, it's going through the roof. I can't go in any kind of setting without hearing it. I worked out today. The person at the desk, I know what her job is and she's a health coach. She deals with nutrition.
44:39 Speaker 02 Before I could finish saying peptide and I said, what percentage of the people that you have as clients every single day come into you and talk about pep? And she went, everybody. And she said, this is never ending. And she went, if you're talking about GLP-1s. More than 50% of my clients are on GLP-1s. Now again, this is Manhattan.
44:58 Speaker 03 Are they doing it for weight loss or are they doing it for other non-weight loss reasons?
45:04 Speaker 02 At this point, the majority of them are for weight loss. They're not, but she does have a lot of diabetic clients and she does have a lot of prediabetic clients. So I don't want to be, it's people have money that can afford to pay for these things because they're there. But they're growing rapidly. The thing is what Eli Lilly and the reason this is so important. So if the decade of 2009 to 2020 was about the App Store and API keys. You could argue that API keys were the key to all of the money made by the MAG7. I believe the pharma industry with peptides has locked into something where again, whether it's gene editing, any way you want to go, we're getting to the software side of
45:45 Speaker 02 the body. We're actually getting to the point of understanding this does this to someone. So Eli Lilly has data that is unexplained for them. And if you listen to David Ricks, he'll say, we knew it was losing weight. We knew it was helping with diabetes. What we didn't understand is why is addiction going down? Why is this going down? They're getting to the part and they've been doing metabolic metabolic disease focused for 100 years. So now we're getting to the point of actually getting to the root cause of problems as opposed to the treatment of problems. And if you get to the root cause of problems through peptides and through receptors, you're now getting into the point where you're putting an API key into the human body to deal with something. This
46:26 Speaker 02 is the beginning of a massive trend because if it wasn't for AI, in my opinion, we're still kind of guessing and going through a long process, but AI helps speed up the process. I'll give you something we didn't talk about. So you know, there's different phases of trials. So very recently, I think in the last month, maybe it was two months, Eli Lilly stopped disclosing phase one trials to working on, which is when they're actually using human beings for this. They won't disclose it anymore. Why wouldn't you disclose it anymore? Well, because it's much easier to catch up to IP if you have AI. If you're doing this and disclosing it, it was for investors because they want investors to be focused on it. Well, now what they're worried about is competition. Competition
47:08 Speaker 02 is about AI. So what we're watching in front of our face is human software. The TAM market for obesity in the, in the world is between 200 and 300 billion dollars. That's a big TAM. And it's very little of it right now is being accessed because of the cost of this and the fact that you can't get insurance. But if you find ways to make them and what they're working on is one treatment as opposed to every single month. Pill, not shot. Like, we watch all this stuff and that's what they're focused on and they are buying companies almost every single week. And in some weeks, they're buying multiple companies. But if you go through, they're all connected to the parts of the diabetes side that GLP-1s, that they've seen some kind of impact, whether it's kidneys, whether
47:52 Speaker 02 it's cancers, whether it's all this. You're talking to someone who didn't know any of this six months ago, but I wrote a paper in October. When I get fixated on something, I keep going. And the reason I'm talking about it today, people, is because I believe we are seeing signs of a top in hardware. Not that they're going to go down and not that this is a crash, but you look for rotations to where the market narrative shifts. And I think the market narrative is shifting from the chips, infrastructure, energy side of the cake, and it's moving up to the application side. And I think the best application for this is going to be on the human software side.
48:26 Speaker 03 So one of the aspects that I became very interested in is the second I heard the GLP-1s could help with addiction, and the data point that really hammered it home was that some of the hedge funds on Wall Street were requiring people to not take GLP-1. Because it took away some of the risk-taking genes, you know, the risk-taking component, was everyone is looking at GLP-1s as a physical body, weight loss, you know, et cetera, impact. What happens when this hits the drug and alcohol addiction market? I don't know where people are yet in terms of actually being able to do that from a pure medical standpoint. Will insurance dollars be able to be used, et cetera? But if you're telling me that there is now something that can be injected that will help solve that
49:11 Speaker 03 problem, and it maybe is matched with recovery centers, or rehab, or whatever, that is a very big market. That is a market that not only would have a profound positive impact on society, but there will be very big businesses built there. And so I think that, to me, is what's interesting here, is you're talking about this like API key for the human body, but it seems like a lot of these peptides, they're not just single application. We're starting to see, okay, it can do weight loss, it can do addiction, it can do whatever. It's one single drug, right, or peptide?
49:46 Speaker 03 When we look at the cholesterol shot, my guess is it does other things as well, right? And has certain impacts on people's body. And so as you see this kind of roll out here, it feels like we understand maybe the first order impact, but we yet do not understand what else can these things do? And so it's a perfect example of a market that continues to expand as we better understand the technology. As an investor, what else do you want? It's already a big TAM. And oh, by the way, you know, it's kind of like the SpaceX TAM slide. You know, we have rocket launch. We have Starlink, enterprise AI. Right? Same thing's going to happen here in healthcare, right?
50:27 Speaker 02 Yeah, and for people, I mean, we're, we're, we're almost at 20% of personal expenditures in the country each year are healthcare. We're getting close to that. It grows every single year because of demographics and because of the health of the country. So we all realize it's a huge market. I don't think people fully grasp how big the market is, but forget housing, forget all this stuff like health expenditures are what you want to focus your attention on. So if you can get a piece of that pie, it's great. Second thing, when, when you talked about addiction, people hear the word side effect and they think it's something negative. Well, these side effects of addictions going down, these are just one of the things that are coming that they can now go study. So I believe what Eli Lilly has figured out is side effects now
51:13 Speaker 02 become something very useful to go investigate as to why this is having an impact. This is different than spending an enormous amount of years to get a drug that treats something as opposed to a peptide, which is there to make the body act differently. And that's the thing people have to realize is if they go spend the time, and for everyone listening, I did this on my weekly video. I highly recommend listening to an interview on YouTube with David Ricks, the CEO of Eli Lilly and Jensen Huang. They're partners.
51:42 Speaker 02 Eli Lilly is partners with Nvidia. That should be enough for people to be interested because he's had a pretty high hit ratio. But if you listen to the interview, you'll learn more about why GLP-1s are so important and why peptides are so important. And you'll get a sense as to where Eli Lilly is going with this. So I think as everyone thinks about this more and they get through how big the market can be, how it'll go, they're going to get back to one other important issue. I've never worried about the debt of the country, despite all the doom and gloom that's out there, because the household net worth of the country is five times the size of the debt of the country. So yes, the government has a bad balance sheet, but the household balance sheet is phenomenal. But entitlements are a major issue that are going to be an issue. But what makes up the bulk of entitlements? When you get through Medicare and Medicaid and you're dealing again with the health of the country.
52:26 Speaker 02 If we're going to get to the point with peptides, but also with gene editing, with mRNA, every single thing. If we're going to get to the point where people are going to die healthy as opposed to die sick, that has a huge impact on the entitlement issue. And that's where, again, I don't think looking out five years, people should think that any business that they've invested in is safe. I don't think they should think that they're going to die. The reason I spend so much time trying to be healthy today is because I'm not sure they're going to be able to reverse my age. So I want to stay the same age for as long as I can, or at least have the delta be shrinking. So I think the healthcare side is something people need to think more about. Watch Eli Lilly's stock just because, number one, it is a trillion dollar company.
53:07 Speaker 02 Number two, believe it or not, it's been kind of consolidating to a very high degree for the last 18 months.
53:12 Speaker 03 So you have no clue as to what the impact of GLP-1s are, and neither did I until this past week. Victoria's Secret put their earnings out there. The stock was up 47% earlier this week. They reported 15% sales growth in, I think, Q1.
53:33 Speaker 03 Directly attributable or in a large part to GLP-1s, people are losing weight. Bedroom fashion is back, I guess.
53:42 Speaker 02 Yeah.
53:43 Speaker 03 The second order effects here on some of these businesses. Everyone was talking about our fast food company is going to come under pressure. But there's the positive stories as well. And so it does feel like this is going to kind of infiltrate out into the US economy in a bunch of ways that maybe we didn't predict before.
53:59 Speaker 02 Yeah, and I think again, the main point here for people to think about is this is with limited access. So I remember when I first wrote something about GLP-1s, which was probably four years ago now. And it was when originally it was becoming kind of a big theme where everyone was talking about. But it was when it was starting to impact the consumer staples companies. And I remember people asked me the question because people say, what do you think? And doctors were already telling me this is like a miracle drug. And most people thought it was bad. And the doctors, some of which were family members, were like, Jordy, you have to understand. For every 10 people that I take care of, seven of them can't go on trips to Disney. They can't do things with their family. This is changing their ability to live their life.
54:45 Speaker 02 And are there side effects? Yes, but they're going to live a healthier life going forward. So what you're talking about now is four years later, the technologies have gotten better. They're still getting better. The weight loss percentage is getting higher. The muscle mass loss is going down. The ability for people to take these less often and not in shot form is increasing and it's only going to get better. So a lot of the things, and again, I'm writing a paper on this on Eli Lilly. I can't possibly describe to you all of the strategic purchases they've made of other companies. So if you go back to what was happening with the MAG7, what were they doing? Buying Instagram, like they were buying.
55:26 Speaker 02 Companies, they were buying API keys. So what's Eli Lilly doing? They're making so much money from this one drug that they're taking the cash to build a data center to like, this is the greatest story you could ever want to hear. And like I said, Toon Lab is basically Google X. Their co-innovation lab out in Silicon Valley with Nvidia. Co-innovation lab with Nvidia is to speed up health and it's to attract talent from Stanford and the people that are graduating out there to make sure that when they have a choice and they're like, do I want to go work for a software company? Or do I want to work for a human software company? All of this stuff is happening and I can already see the supersonic tsunami of healthcare is approaching.
56:08 Speaker 02 And so I think there's going to be more and more Victoria's Secret stories going forward.
56:13 Speaker 03 What are you going to put in your video this week?
56:16 Speaker 02 There's obviously going to be a lot of Eli Lilly and teasing out some of the things that I said here. There's going to be a lot on my belief that the IPOs that are coming to the market, that people are underestimating what they signaled. The Google, what the 85 billion? Why Berkshire buying it? Why that says something too, that a company that's been raising cash decides, oh, we'll take 10 billion of a company that's up 120% year over year. A lot of stuff going on in the market that I think people need to be paying attention to. And again, I'm going to say that this is not a bubble. The title of my video last week is "We Will Crash", which was a play on Andrew Ross Sorkin. But the rotation to me is going to happen and I'd be focused on companies there. And I will emphasize one other point too. We talked about the human software side.
57:00 Speaker 02 I'm not going to emphasize the importance of crypto and tokenization on the financial guardrails, but that is the other software side that if I'm right, for the second half of the year, when, if and when Bitcoin breaks through the 200-day moving average? If and when? Maybe it's two years from now, maybe it's three years from now, maybe it goes to zero before then. I don't know. But once it does, I believe we're entering a new phase where the software that people are choosing is for the human body and for the financial guardrails because AI agents are both that part of software.
57:32 Speaker 03 I love it. We have three asks of the audience today. Three. I mean, look, you know, it's getting to be summertime. We got three of them. The first is go search on YouTube for Jordy Visser and subscribe to his channel so you can watch his weekly video. Every Sunday it comes out. It's amazing. He has more charts than you can ever imagine. It's very informative and I think you'll learn a lot. The second thing is that we want you to go to Jordy Visser 22V Research and how many pieces are you putting out a week right now?
58:03 Speaker 02 I'm putting out two pieces a week, but then I'm also putting in a bunch of models for trading and stuff like that.
58:08 Speaker 03 This guy writes so much I can't read it. He's getting out of hand here. You're gonna have to put a speed limit on him. So 22V Research, Jordy Visser, or if you want to use AI to better manage your portfolio, you can go to CFOSilvia.com. You can sign up there for free. So go subscribe to Jordy on YouTube, go listen to or subscribe to 22V Research, or go sign up for CFOSilvia.com. If you do those three things, we'll be happy, guys. You know, we don't ask for much around here, but those three things will be very helpful and we'll see you guys next week.
58:38 Speaker 02 See ya.
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