Pod Insights The Pomp Podcast Bitcoin’s Next 50% Move: Why the Bottom Is In | Mel Mattison About this episode Mel Mattison is one of the leading macro strategists on the internet, known for his deep insights into global markets and digital assets. In this conversation, Mel explains why he believes bitcoin is quietly building a strong base for its next move higher. We cover the key macro forces shaping markets — from Fed policy and the Supreme Court’s tariff decision to the sustainability of the AI boom and rising geopolitical tensions.======================Check out my NEW show for daily bite-sized breakdowns of the biggest stories in finance, technology, and politics: http://pompdesk.com/======================Simple Mining makes Bitcoin mining simple and accessible for everyone. We offer a premium white glove hosting service, helping you maximize the profitability of Bitcoin mining. For more information on Simple Mining or to get started mining Bitcoin, visit https://www.simplemining.io/======================In this episode, Pomp spotlights easyBitcoin.app—the app that pays you 1% extra on recurring buys, 2% annual bitcoin rewards, and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it now for iOS or Android at https://easybitcoin.onelink.me/F1zP/klc4v1p8 and start earning today. Your capital is at risk. Crypto markets are highly volatile. This content is informational and not financial advice.======================Timestamps: 0:00 – Intro2:11 – How Mel views uncertainty in markets today4:12 – Government shutdown & Supreme Court tariffs impact7:49 – What could actually cause a bear market10:14 – Why Mel is bullish on bitcoin’s base at $100K13:56 – What would make Mel turn bearish on bitcoin17:33 – Three negative market signals in stocks22:04 – Has bitcoin’s 4-year cycle changed?27:16 – White House Asset Management and US industrial policy30:20 – Any concern around US–Venezuela tensions?
Transcript 0:02 Speaker 00 The action's on the court and as the official beer sponsor of the NBA, Michelob Ultra is getting fans closer to the game with a chance to win courtside seats, merch and more. Visit michelobultra.com/courtside to enter. Michelob Ultra Courtside 26 to 27. No purchase necessary. Open to US residents 21+ Begins on October 1st, 2026 and ends on June 30th, 2027. Multiple entry periods. See official rules at michelobultra.com/courtside for free entry, entry deadlines, prizes and details.
0:30 Speaker 01 Welcome to Sephora. I'm looking for a perfume that's not too perfumey? I got you.
0:36 Speaker 02 Serum moisturizer or moisturizer serum?
0:40 Speaker 01 Let's get into layering. My concealer is making me look worse? Sounds like the wrong shade. Let's get you matched.
0:48 Speaker 03 There's only one store that really gets what you're going for. Get beauty from people who get beauty, only at Sephora.
0:55 Speaker 01 Hi, I, uh... Let's get you a basket.
1:02 Speaker 04 What's up everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Many of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them for hours while I ask questions in an effort to learn. So it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform, watch episodes on YouTube and tell your friends and family about the podcast. My goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode.
1:30 Speaker 05 Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only.
1:54 Speaker 06 So I think Bitcoin is setting up literally for a 50% move by the end of February. And so we were at 98,000 today. A 50% move gets us to a little under 150, actually. I think we can hit 150 in February. I think we can still hit 140 by the end of the year.
2:17 Speaker 04 What are the things that you'd have to see in the Bitcoin market that would make you change your mind? What's going on, guys? Today, we got a great episode with Mel Madison. Mel is here to tell everyone in the Bitcoin community, calm down, everything's going to be okay. Mel believes that Bitcoin is poised for a very big move up. He thinks that a base is building, and he explains why. He also goes into many things that are uncertain in the market, things like the Supreme Court decision around tariffs, trying to figure out when the government shutdown is going to end, who is going to lead the Fed next, and will they make a cut in December? All of that plays into it. We also talk about the stock market, whether AI is actually a sustainable trend, what he's seeing there in terms of bulls and bears. And then we even talk a little geopolitics in the China trade deal and whether the United States actually doing some sort of military action in Venezuela
3:01 Speaker 04 and what the impact would be on financial markets. Mel shares tons of great insights in this conversation. I'm excited for you guys to listen to it. Here's my latest conversation with Mel Madison. All right, Mel, I thought a great place to start this conversation is, obviously, investors are very worried about the uncertainty in the market. There's everything from the Supreme Court on tariffs. There's the government shutdown. There's a question of what the Fed's going to do in December. It feels like clarity is what everyone is seeking. How do you look at the clarity, the uncertainty, and then the recent market action that people are paying attention to?
3:30 Speaker 06 Definitely. So I think this is human nature 101. We have had stupendous moves off of the April lows, and everybody is waiting for another shoe to drop, something bad to happen. And anytime there's something that is actually very normal, very healthy, like we talked about last time, seeing volatility in up markets, where you get a 1%, 2% pullback, and people immediately jump to, well, the top is in. So just for context, from the new all-time highs in the S and P 500 set last week at 6920 to the low that we set this week, it was a 2.2% drop. So we moved down 2.2%.
4:14 Speaker 06 When you go back to that big October 10th Friday drop, From there to that high was an almost 6% gain. So essentially, we went up 6% in two weeks. And then now we've pulled back 2% or roughly a third of that move. Very, very normal stuff that you should expect to see. And not just expect to see, but want to see. One of the worst things that could happen is Bitcoin shoots up to 250,000, S and P to 8,000 in like a three-month period. And you get this blow off top and everybody rushes for the exits to take profits when it starts going down. And so we're having healthy rotations, healthy movements. And we're getting at some very interesting points in a lot of the channels that I look
4:55 Speaker 06 at on, especially on Bitcoin, which I think might have put in, you know, a low for this fourth quarter and is basically starting to base for what I think is going to be a really nice move over the next four to five months.
5:10 Speaker 04 Before we get more into Bitcoin, let's talk about some of these uncertainty moments. So government shutdown and maybe the Supreme Court decision around the tariffs. How do you see those two things playing into Bitcoin stocks and other asset prices?
5:22 Speaker 06 Yeah. So I think, given all this uncertainty that we do have, the government shutdown, people not getting paychecks. Literally, the entire year has been this focus on tariffs. And the Supreme Court, by early indications, it's a little bit of a crapshoot of whether or not they're going to keep this up under AIP. But now that doesn't mean that Trump can't put tariffs in elsewhere. But that's going to interject a lot of uncertainty. You also had the Mondami election last night. You had, what else have we had? The future path of the Fed being put into doubt in Powell's recent comments and some of the comments by other governors like Lisa Cook.
6:04 Speaker 06 So you've got that whole soup of uncertainty out there in the zeitgeist, in the sentiment. And still, you know, when you look at what the market has been doing, it keeps chugging along. Bitcoin undoubtedly been a little disappointing. But again, I would go back to the crazy move that we had in the last two years. Two years ago, Bitcoin Was thirty five thousand a coin and a year later it was a hundred thousand a coin. So we went from thirty five thousand in the fall of twenty three to after the Trump election, you know, cracking a hundred for the first time, not long after after November and it was in December or January, I believe.
6:46 Speaker 06 So when you have that move, you know, consolidation is expected and that to me is all that we're seeing. And yet you have a lot of Cassandars out there ready to jump out there and say, this is it, this is the top, the valuations are crazy. And you're just not seeing it in the way the market reacts. The market could have taken things much lower, for example, this morning. But people are stepping in to buy. This is one of the things we talked about last time, was institutional buyers are seeing the dollar stabilize. In fact, the dollar, the DXY hit a hundred recently. So if you're a European institutional investor and you're going into something like,
7:25 Speaker 06 you know, the NASDAQ or SPX, you're not only getting, you know, recent increases in the value, you're getting a little bump from the dollar now that you weren't seeing earlier in the year. So all of these things I think are putting a floor under these markets and they're essentially very shallow, normal, healthy dips and they're getting bought and their opportunities more than anything else.
7:48 Speaker 04 Now, when you look at those moments of uncertainty, is there anything that you think could be an outcome that would actually push us into bear market or really kind of hurt asset prices? Or is it just the fact that we get clarity is important, right? Like, there's something about, okay, in an election, I think, take New York City mayor race, it's capitalism versus socialism is the way it's pitted, right? Whether people agree with that or not, that that's kind of the standoff, if you will. They don't just want clarity on, okay, the election's over. They actually wanted a certain candidate to win. How do you look at some of these moments of uncertainty? Is it the clarity that's important or is it there actually a desired outcome that will have the impact on asset prices?
8:25 Speaker 06 Yeah, I think for all of these, what I would call bumps in the road, kind of clarity and just working through them is what's important. If you want to find something structural that could really hurt this market and take, you know, sure, we could have a 5%, 6% pullback in markets, but if you want to find something that could really threaten the longer term bull, you have to look for something more serious and more structural. You would have to see the AI story literally start to fail and people start backing out of deals. You know, people, instead of every earnings call you heard, you've heard people say, you know, it's not a demand problem, it's a supply problem.
9:10 Speaker 06 And you've heard people say, you know, yes, we might have enough chips, but we don't have enough power. So the desire is there, there are bottlenecks in the system. If you saw that start to fall away and people said, oh, you know what, Amazon says we don't need to work on nuclear reactors anymore, actually, we've got that handled, there's not that big of a demand, that's going to do something. The other thing that I think is a November 2026 story that could be somewhat structural is as we get past the midterms, if we get, you know, a strong performance, for example, by Democrats and socialist leaning Democrats, and it starts to look like in 2027 that we're
9:52 Speaker 06 on a path for a more socialist type of a Democratic presidential candidate, whether it's an AOC or a Bernie Sanders or someone that we're not thinking of, that would kind of essentially take everything that the Trump administration is trying to do around deregulation, around lower taxes, around freeing of business, and say, we're going to, we're going to reverse all that and go in the opposite, opposite direction and raise taxes. Yeah, that, that's gonna, that, that could do something to the, to the bull run. But I don't think that's at least a year away before that really starts getting on people's radar. And I think right now, what people are wanting to do is get past
10:35 Speaker 06 These uncertainty bumps in the road and then look at all of the amazing things that we have coming, whether that's the Clarity Act, the Sovereign Wealth Fund, probably a proposed housing emergency that does something to get the housing market booming, a new Fed chair being appointed in the coming months. All of these things, the one big beautiful bill that tax credits, everything really getting in full force in 2026. All of these things that are on the way and we know they're coming, they're going to be the story, the narrative that's going to kind of flip this script a little bit on things like Bitcoin and start making it jump again.
11:13 Speaker 04 There's a lot of people in the Bitcoin world who they see this four-year cycle. They say, hey, October, November is probably the top. There should be a big correction now. You seem to think that Bitcoin is kind of setting a base here in the kind of 100K, 110K range, and that is really the base for a bigger move up over the next couple of months. Describe a little as to what you're seeing in the market and why are you very bullish in terms of the future months here that we're going to experience?
11:38 Speaker 06 Yeah, so it really was about about two years ago that we started in this kind of broad up channel in Bitcoin, which we are still in. And if you look at the charts, essentially, we've kind of touched near the bottom of that channel just this week, and that was something that I thought was possible last time we were on. Last time we were on, I think Bitcoin was 108. I said, this could be the time because this is the level we broke up to in the beginning of the year. But I also wouldn't be surprised if we went back and touched 98,000, which was where we hit in that Iran bombing timeframe, and it also was the bottom of that channel. And I said, if we do hit 98,000, it's probably not going to be there long,
12:20 Speaker 06 probably a few days, and it's going to be back to 108 and start working its way back up. So I think we've hit that 98 channel. If we break it, you know, I'll have to relook at things. But right now, this is kind of going according to plan. And so essentially with Bitcoin, what I see happening is after such a huge move after that election, as we talked about, it needed some time to breathe. It needed Some time to also do something again, very healthy, which is start to disseminate some of these coins that have been held by the OG whales into the broader market and financial system into the IBits and the the portfolios, the BlackRock portfolios, which are now absorbing this supply without the
13:04 Speaker 06 the price crashing, right? We we're roughly down maybe 20%. But the thing with Bitcoin is it's still very capable of extremely powerful moves. Just this year, we had six trading days, basically. I wrote down the dates, September 28th to October 6th. We went from 109 to 126,000. So we had a 15% move just a few weeks ago, really. I mean, if we're talking September and October. A $16,593 move in six trading days. You know, of of markets, like calendar days, eight or nine. In June and July, June 22nd to July 14th, we went from 98,000 to 123,236.
13:49 Speaker 06 So we went up 25K or 25% in three weeks. So I I think Bitcoin is setting up literally for a 50% move by the end of February. And so we were at 98,000 today. A 50% move gets us to a little under 150, actually. I think we can hit 150 in February. I think we can still hit 140 by the end of the year. And that, like I said, these these narrative drivers of the Clarity Act, which is getting revived. The Senate has now put it out for comment. This is a huge deal that also presents the story to get people excited about it again. And then the Sovereign Wealth Fund, the new Fed chair
14:34 Speaker 06 and and the housing emergency getting declared that kind of gets animal spirits riled up. All those things I think are going to start to come together here. And, you know, in the two years that this up channel's been in place, there's only been about three or four times where we've hit the bottom of it. And every one of those times has been a great opportunity. And this week is another one of those times.
14:56 Speaker 04 What are the things that you'd have to see in the Bitcoin market that would make you change your mind or become very bearish? It sounds like a kind of violation of this trading channel. Is there anything else that would would kind of catch your attention or that you're waiting for?
15:09 Speaker 06 Yeah, a massive breakdown, a technical breakdown in the uptrend that gets confirmed. So we dropped dramatically below this 98 level out of the channel and we stay there for a week and we can't get back into the channel. Then I start to say, something is going on here. I might not be in the news, but the price is telling you something that you have to pay attention to. The other thing would be, you know, as of, you know, pretty much all year, while there have been some vocal people on the left against, you know, digital asset regulation, for the most part, the Genius Act was bipartisan and a lot of the scuttlebutt around the Clarity
15:50 Speaker 06 Act, which is the digital asset bill that's going to kind of define what's a commodity, what's a security, how's it going to be regulated, what kind of entities these need to be. All of those things have relatively been bipartisan. If that would just start to fall apart and it looked like any regulatory progress is kind of stalled out and there's not going to be anymore, that would be a concerning thing to me. And then, of course, there's the, I don't know if you call them black swans, because if you can identify them, they're not really black swans, but, you know, some super-secret Chinese quantum military computer gets discovered that threatens encryption, but that's going to be a big problem for the whole world, for every bank account, for militaries.
16:35 Speaker 06 I mean, so there's always something like that out there, but, I mean, that I put at an extremely low likelihood. And I think the other two, the first two, probably 10, 15% likelihoods tops. And so you've got this, you know, predominantly positive backdrop with the charts telling you we could very well be at a low. And, you know, in the past, those have been opportunities to take some risk and add exposure, and it's paid off handsomely.
17:08 Speaker 04 Today's episode is brought to you by Simple Mining. Have you ever been interested in mining Bitcoin? As a miner myself, I've been using Simple Mining for the past few months, and the experience has been nothing short of seamless. Mine with the pool of my choice and the Bitcoin is sent directly to my wallet. Simple Mining, which is based in Cedar Falls, Iowa, offers a premium white glove service designed for everyone, from individual enthusiasts to large scale miners. They've been in business for four years and currently operate more than 20,000 Bitcoin miners, including mine. Their electricity is over 65% renewable, thanks to the abundance of wind energy. Not only do they simplify mining with their top notch hosting and onsite repair services, but they also help you benefit financially by running your operations as a business. This approach offers 100% bonus depreciation to optimize the profitability of your investment.
17:53 Speaker 04 Do you ever worry about the completion of maintaining your mining equipment? They've got you covered there, too. For the first 12 months, all repairs are included at no extra cost. If you experience any downtime, they'll credit you for it as well. And if your miners aren't profitable at the amount, simply pause them with no penalties. When you're ready to upgrade or adjust your setup, their exclusive marketplace provides a seamless way to resell your equipment. Join me and many satisfied miners who have simplified their Bitcoin mining journey. You can even get started today with a seven day miner trial. Visit simplemining.io/pomp to get started today. That's simplemining.io/pomp to get started today. With Simple Mining, they make it simple.
18:33 Speaker 04 Now, you have three things that you look at as negative market signals that are in the stock market. And so, you know, I think you and I both appreciate some optimism. We're very bullish and, you know, where asset prices are going. But I do think it's important to kind of say, hey, look, that there's a rational view, right? Understanding what are some of the negative things? So the first one you have is 39% of S and P companies are above their 50 day moving average. Overall, you think there's low breadth in the market? And you think there's a general pickup in the VIX and shaky market sentiment? Can you walk through kind of why you're able to identify those, but you don't think that they are a cause for concern yet?
19:10 Speaker 06 Yeah, I mean, we were making, you know, new highs last week and we just weren't seeing a lot of the stocks, just a pure number of stocks, kind of following along and saying, "Hey, we're buying into this," you know, "all over the place, across all sectors," that sort of thing. And so, one way to look at that is percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average. It was, you know, peaking out over 50% last week and then it kind of precipitously dropped off. And as you said, it was at 39% as of the close yesterday. So, you'd like to see that over 50, you know. You start getting below 50 and, you know, a move to like the 20-day moving average is no big deal, but we've
19:55 Speaker 06 had a number of stocks that have basically gone in their own bear markets, that are down 20%, 30%. And so, again, I'm seeing that as healthy because a lot of those stocks that are, are the Frost stocks that have been up, you know, 200% this year, 500% in the last two years. And so, to see them come in 20%, 25% is a healthy thing. But when you do start seeing that and then, you know, you have the algorithms that play off of these types of moves, selling can be good selling, you've had this sentiment, you had the Michael Berry disclosure of Nvidia and Palantir puts. So, you've had this sentiment creep in that, "Hey, we could be getting top evaluations extended." Meta had a very
20:40 Speaker 06 poor reaction to their earnings when they basically expanded their CapEx. So, we've had, you have to be, you have to be fair, right? You have to admit, when there are negative things out there, you need to recognize them. And I think, I think that's one reason why, you know, cutting back on exposure when you get a very like euphoric run like we saw last week where we were just shooting up every day, you know, it makes sense to say, "Hey, let me pull some, pull some cash in so that if we do go down in the coming days or weeks, there's, there's money there to put back in at lower prices." So, I think that's what's going on. And I think that, overall, these type of technical indicators Like breath and things can get worked through.
21:21 Speaker 06 And I'm sure that if we keep up doing what we're doing today as we record on Wednesday. With a strong day in the markets, a strong day for Bitcoin off of the lows that we hit overnight. You know, a lot of these technical things get worked out and maybe by the end of the week, we're back to 50% of companies around their 50 day average, if not this week, the next week. So I think these things can get worked off and then we have this positive seasonality out there. That I don't think can be ignored, you know, people talk about portfolio managers needing to chase to keep up with their benchmarks. You look at basically past years when the market's been up 15% at the end of October. What happens in November, December?
22:05 Speaker 06 And so to have a little brief pause in the action, everybody catch their breath, all that stuff that I think is happening. I think the key thing is to remain calm and not get all panicky and say, oh my gosh, you know, I've got good profits, I need to sell everything now and book those. Nobody gets hurt taking some profits once in a while. But to also keep in mind, there's a lot of positive things on the horizon. And that the volatility is a feature, not a bug of of high uptrend markets. As we talked about last time, all the big pullbacks in the NASDAQ during the dot com boom. And I think we're going to see a lot more 1% days in the market in 2026.
22:49 Speaker 06 And we're going to see a lot more $5, $6,000 candles in Bitcoin. And that's just going to become par for the course. And you know, it's kind of one of those markets, if you can't take the heat, maybe get out of the kitchen. But I think I think there's going to be volatility, that's for sure.
23:04 Speaker 04 Now, when you start to look in the Bitcoin market in particular, there's these dashboards that have kind of bull market indicators. They've got like 30 of them. And what they're really measuring in a whole bunch of different ways is like blow off tops, euphoria. You know, things that are just very obvious, this is unsustainable. Bitcoin has hit zero of the 30 as of two days ago when I looked. Do you think that Bitcoin could have? Some sort of market correction or bear market as it's, you know, kind of been following this four year cycle without having had the blow off top. Like I kind of think of the institutional participation, you know, it used to be this kind of huge blow off top. You get a market correction, you get this like very deep sell off and then you, you know, kind of go up and do it again.
23:47 Speaker 04 What we've seen since the ETFs is actually more of kind of like a 45 degree grind up in price. Right. And it seems like we're not getting too far ahead of ourselves, but also the drawdowns have been much shallower as well. Could that just be a market structure change? Now you have a different, you know, kind of bid in the market. And so people should kind of throw out this idea of expecting blow off tops, but also expecting these, you know, deep kind of 70% drawdowns.
24:11 Speaker 06 Yeah, I, I do think so. I, I'm not saying that, you know, Bitcoin is never going to draw down 70% again. It is always possible. It's possible on the S and P 500 as well. But when you look at like a 50% drawdown in, in broad equity markets or, or even the gold market. They're pretty rare. They're pretty few and far between, right? So 20% a lot more common, you know, 25 maybe. But, you know, we had a 50% drawdown in, in the great financial crisis. We had more than 50% in the NASDAQ after the dot com boom. That's twice in the last quarter century that that's happened. Bitcoin doing 70% drawdowns every couple of years, I think is probably a thing of the past.
24:56 Speaker 06 And I think it's only to be expected because of that structural change in the market, not just the market size and surpassing 2 trillion in market cap. But all of the financial instruments that are now at play within the Bitcoin market, whether it's options on IBIT, the ETFs themselves, the futures contracts, the micro futures contracts, the derivative deaths, the fact that, you know, banks and brokers feel more comfortable interacting with this in a way that they didn't in the past, where they might've gotten yelled at by their boss or even fired if they were, you know, holding crypto assets. So I think a lot of these things, they do put in a, they put in, I wouldn't say a floor, but they, they're volatility dampeners.
25:39 Speaker 06 And, and that's not to say, you know, Bitcoin doesn't have volatility. I talked about the, the huge up moves we've seen this year. You know, 25% in three weeks, 15% in six days. So it's still got volatility, that's for sure, but it's definitely less. And I think. You know, this move, could we break down? Yeah, I mean, I think we could. You have to admit that that's always possible. But I'm just not seeing a really good story for someone to tell me why Bitcoin should go back to 50,000. I just don't see why that's what makes sense from here. In fact, when I look at the big, broader, big-time macro issues, sovereign debt bubbles
26:21 Speaker 06 around the world, you know, money printing, I mean, you literally had the Fed saying they're restarting expansion of the balance sheet. Now, it's probably only going to be commensurate with, you know, nominal GDP growth, but that's still a big deal to say, oh, we're going to stop selling Treasuries or stop letting them roll off, and we're actually going to start buying them. You know, these are the types of things that are the core of the debasement trade, and I just don't see them either ending the narrative for Bitcoin or ending the narrative for gold, which, you know, we haven't talked about yet. But again, I see that as just bouncing around, consolidating at this point. Could we go a little bit lower? Sure.
27:03 Speaker 06 But we're already getting close to that rising 50-day moving average is coming up quickly. And so, I mean, I think gold might have a little bit more downside and definitely more time to consolidate before another breakout occurs. But I don't see gold, you know, going back to 3,000 or silver going back to 20 or... I just don't see these things as likely, but they are probably possible. But they're, like I said, 10, 15% outlier chances in my book.
27:34 Speaker 04 Today's episode is brought to you by EasyBitcoin.app. They offer a simple, rewarding Bitcoin investment experience. With EasyBitcoin, every recurring buy automatically earns you 1% extra in Bitcoin, and the sats don't stop there. Hold your stack in the app and you'll collect a 2% annual reward plus 4.5% APY on any US dollars you park in a USD interest account. You can even opt in to have your interest auto-converted to Bitcoin. It's a simple set-it-and-forget-it way to grow your Bitcoin. EasyBitcoin is live right now on iOS and Android. Hit pause, click the Link in the description, download the app and start earning while your Bitcoin stash grows. Your capital is at risk, crypto markets are highly volatile and this content is informational and not financial advice.
28:16 Speaker 04 One of the things that we haven't talked about is this new term that I've heard, White House Asset Management. Which basically is, you know, Washington DC, the Trump administration, they started taking positions in different companies. They've been very prescriptive in terms of certain industries that they think are important for national security. We've got this report that Scott Besson, the Treasury Secretary has been tasked with around the Sovereign Wealth Fund. It feels like DC is a market participant in a way that maybe they previously have not been. How does that play into your analysis as you think through both stocks, Bitcoin and gold?
28:51 Speaker 06 It's generally bullish because I think we are doing things that are deemed necessary from a national defense, you know, American sovereignty perspective. And I actually don't think that that would or will change with perhaps someone on the other side of the aisle in the White House, you know, in three years from now. I think that these are, these are necessary things that actually, you could call it the blob, the foreign policy elites are also in agreement with. And basically what they've recognized is, look, you know, we essentially are no longer a self-sufficient country when it comes to certain things, whether it's chips or rare earths.
29:36 Speaker 06 And even if it's not profitable for these companies to go out and mine in the US or, you know, do fabs in Arizona, you know, we have to support them to do that. And these are things that are not uncommon. These are things that the United States has done time and time again, when it's deemed it necessary. It happened after the revolution when we wanted to break away more from British dependence on textiles and we started building the textile mills in the United States in the Industrial Revolution. It happened during World War II. I mean, there was a famous example during World War II where the head of Montgomery Ward had Basically refused to kind of break a strike and and they were involved in different war
30:21 Speaker 06 production and FDR sent the National Guard into his corporate headquarters and they carried him out in his big like boardroom chair and there's this famous picture of the CEO Chairman of the Board of Montgomery Ward being carried out of his office and the entire company was put under direct control of the Department of War and it was called the Department of War back then. And so, you know, these types of things, they happen, but they they've tended to happen, you know, maybe when there's an actual physical war going on, but there there isn't that hot war with China where the the bombs are going across the Taiwan Strait, but we're on like a semi quasi war footing with them from a foreign policy perspective. And I think that that's here to
31:06 Speaker 06 last. And I think it's going to take time to get our sovereignty back in some of these key areas. But I think that's the plan and the agenda. And so Washington, you know, White House Asset Management, Inc., you know, I think is going to be in business for some time.
31:20 Speaker 04 Now, when you think about US-China, all eyes on that trade deal and and you know, kind of the reduction of tariffs, the rare earths, all that stuff, I think is very well covered. One of the areas that I have been very surprised there's not more chatter about is US and Venezuela. And one of the things that you really go to is like they have a lot of resources. Now, they're not China, right? But they have certain resources that would be very valuable to the United States. You've got Maduro, who I think a lot of people are saying, hey, this guy has been, you know, kind of screwing this up. There's a lot of questions about human rights and freedom and and those things. Prediction markets, they've got higher odds than I thought about the US actually intervening in Venezuela, troops going to Venezuela. I mean, some of these numbers,
32:05 Speaker 04 again, it's not, you know, 80%, but there are numbers that range between 10 to 30%, depending on what the the exact topic of the betting market is. And then there was a report, I think from the Miami Herald recently, that basically said, you know, the Trump administration has made the decision that they're going to go ahead and they're going to strike within Venezuela. I have no clue if that's true or not, but you know, whether it's a leak at testing the market, who knows?
32:28 Speaker 04 Is there any concern about the US actually striking somebody in South Central America that would either cause concern or, as we've seen, when the US locks into war, usually stocks go up many times. And so, how do you evaluate that type of risk or that type of event occurring?
32:45 Speaker 06 Yeah. I mean, that's a tricky one because it is concerning seeing some of the actions. They're sending the aircraft carrier group left the Mediterranean this week and they're on their way to the Caribbean. There's supposedly been reports that Trump has essentially been green-lighted to go into Venezuela by Xi and Putin, who have basically made it clear through back channels that they wouldn't send troops. Putin might send some arms to Venezuela, but the dangerous thing about that really is it could easily lead to just
33:27 Speaker 06 this spiral of anti-Americanism across Latin America, which is already pretty well rooted in certain countries and in certain parts of the continent there. And I don't think that would be healthy. I think that would probably be a mistake to send troops into Venezuela. Now, is it just a show of force? Is this something where Trump is working on a deal with Brazil and he wants, obviously, we had the Argentina support and that this is part of this broader posture for the United States to be more focused on the Western Hemisphere. And this is a signal, this is a sign, hey, we're taking the Western Hemisphere
34:11 Speaker 06 seriously. And yeah, they're blowing up some boats, which is probably questionable. But actually putting any US boots on the ground into Venezuela, or even just doing airstrikes, then the question becomes what it always becomes. Well, what happens next, right? You take out Saddam Hussein, what happens next? You take out the Taliban, what? And Venezuela is a huge country. I believe it's larger than France and Germany combined. It does have a lot of natural resources and emeralds and gold and low quality oil, but a lot of it. So it's got things that we could obviously want to get our hands on. But it could also be part of a negotiation. You know, Trump said Maduro offered him, quote,
34:53 Speaker 06 "everything," but he could want even more. You know, he could want even more kind of guarantees, or maybe he's doing it as a gambit to stoke internal forces within Venezuela to rise up and try to take down Maduro. So I would want to keep an eye on that. I would think, because I doubt that China or Russia would get involved, that if it did happen, the initial market reaction would be negative. It could look detrimental to our economic interests in Latin America overall, and it wouldn't surprise me to see a 5%, 10% pull down within a week if we actually went into Venezuela. But again, that would not be something structural to
35:37 Speaker 06 the bull market, just like I talked about with AI, the AI boom being over, or, you know, a socialist regime coming into the United States and control. So I think, you know, that would be something that could cause like April surprise like we had this year, you know, like if they decided we're actually going to go into Venezuela. I don't think it would put an end to the bull market, but I don't think it would be received favorably by the market, at least initially. But I think over time, like we kind of got used to the war in Ukraine, like we got used to the war in Israel, and as horrible as it is, because I know people have been killed horribly in both of those conflicts. But as far as the market is concerned, getting used to these things, I think eventually
36:20 Speaker 06 the market would get used to it. And there might be a shock and awe phase, and then things would simmer down, and there'd be some sort of ceasefire deal put in place, and the market would move on its merry way.
36:32 Speaker 04 That makes sense to me. Mel, where can we send people to find you on the internet?
36:36 Speaker 06 MelMadison1 on X or MelMadison.com on the web are great places. And also, I have my financial thriller, Quoz, available wherever books are sold, if people are interested in that.
36:49 Speaker 04 I got my copy of Quoz. I'm going to read it this weekend, so I'm going to let you know. I do book reviews, but I'm super honest. If I like it, I'll tell you I like it. If I don't like it, I'm going to tell you that too. But I'm pretty excited about it. So anyone else who wants to read along, go ahead and get Quoz. Just search it and it comes right up.
37:07 Speaker 06 Awesome. I hope you enjoy it. I'll be prepared for an honest review. I appreciate, I appreciate honest, honest feedback. All right, Mel. Thanks so much. We'll do it again soon. All right. Thanks, Anthony.
Previous Bitcoin's Big Risk Exposed | Jeff Park Next Why $100K Bitcoin Is Just the Beginning | Jordi Visser Page updated October 16, 2026 · transcript and summary are machine-generated
