Bitcoin Is Entering Its Most Powerful Wave Ever | Jordi Visser

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack. In this conversation, we break down why rising interest rates may not derail the AI-driven economy, bitcoin's path to new highs and the four-year cycle debate, and how AI agents are already reshaping markets, business management, and crypto adoption. We also cover tokenization, portfolio allocation, and why a 0% crypto weighting no longer makes sense. ======================== Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates investment strategies across Stocks, Commodities, ETFs and Crypto. Whether you’re rotating into AI & Gold, allocating to the S&P 500, or accumulating Bitcoin, Arch Public executes your plan 24/7 without ever taking custody of your assets or funds. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com, and start your FREE automated trading strategy! ======================== Uphold is the easiest way to buy and sell crypto unlike any other platform allowing you to trade in just one step between any supported asset. Check them out at https://www.uphold.com/pomp/This video includes a paid sponsorship with Uphold. I’m compensated by Uphold for promoting its products and services and may receive commissions from referrals. Terms apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Digital assets are risky and may result in the total loss of your capital. ======================== 0:00 - Intro0:58 - Why interest rates won't derail the AI-driven economy13:43 - Bitcoin, stocks & the money printing trade20:28 - Tokenization, AI agents & the next wave of investment opportunities22:42 - Bitcoin's path to $100K & the four-year cycle debate29:11 - AI agents are already changing how business gets done35:07 - Markets never sleep: how agents are reshaping trading38:06 - Managing AI agents like a team 46:01 - Using AI to cut through market fear 52:01 - Why every portfolio needs crypto exposure

• 0:00Speaker 00

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• 1:00Speaker 02

  I believe from an Elliott Wave perspective, we're entering a third wave, a big, the most powerful wave in crypto. For that to happen and the reasons behind it, we need this kind of doubt when it starts to go up. Because the energy that should be associated should be real. For this to be a third wave, I also need the silent IPO thing to be there. I needed to see.

• 1:23Speaker 03

  What's going on, guys? Today we have a great conversation with Jordy Visser. In it, we talk about interest rates, why everyone's worried about them going higher, but maybe it's not actually going to affect the economy or your portfolio as much as you think. We talk about Bitcoin and whether it's going higher, lower, or going to stay the same. Why people are so bearish, but Jordy is so bullish. And then we talk about AI agents and what's going on, changing in the way we work, the way that we live our lives, and how it is going to impact everything around us. This conversation has a ton of impact on what is actually going to occur in your portfolio and the US economy over the coming years. I highly suggest that you listen to this very carefully, and I think that you'll get a lot of value out of it. Here's my latest conversation with Jordy Visser. All right, Jordy, we're back in studio. You got a Hawaiian shirt on. I got a Yankees hat. We're ready to rock and roll. Everyone has one big question. Are interest rates going to go up or are they not?

• 2:07Speaker 03

  Scott Besant this week gave an interview and he said, I have more information than the market has, obviously. How are you analyzing whether rates will go up or not? And then what is the impact of them changing?

• 2:20Speaker 02

  All right, first of all, and I did post some stuff in X, and I'm going to do some stuff in the video over the weekend.

• 2:28Speaker 02

  Your question aligns with the way people are freaking out. I personally, I'm shocked for, for, let's just use 10 year rates. For the most part, they've been stuck in a 50 basis point range for the last almost four years, since the peak in 2022 or the peak since they started to range trade. The rate should be going higher because nominal GDP is over 6%. And nominal GDP is over 6% because of the AI trade, which is all related to the build out of the AI trade.

• 3:01Speaker 02

  I don't think people should be focused on whether rates are going up or not. I think the question is, will rates do anything to the economy? And number two, and most importantly, the administration and Scott Besant have shown their hands that they don't want rates to go higher. And regardless of the reasons, he's not going to publicly go out and say, well, we're really focused on the fact that the, um, the deficit's big. And if we let rates go higher, then our interest expense is going to be higher and we're going to be in worse of a debt situation. I think the more important thing for people to think about again is, will rates of this magnitude, this is not a big move. So will rates making the scary 20 year high, which is the chart that everyone shows around and that all the people

• 3:46Speaker 02

  that believe in the end game that Druckenmiller wrote about, which is you're manipulating a yield to where it should be, and it should be higher. So I agree with that. What I don't agree with is that people should sell stocks because of that, or that they should be thinking that something bad is going to happen. And the reason is there is no sensitivity to rates with inside the AI build out. And I'm going to show that this weekend, too. The margins for the frontier models, which are Anthropic and OpenAI, which are really the drivers of the entire thing at this point. So users are using ChatGPT and Anthropic. They've become a dual op, a duopoly. And yes, you have open source, but these are the companies that the enterprises are using.

• 4:29Speaker 02

  These are the ones that are able to charge the prices they're charging. Their margins are enormous and interest rates have almost no impact. So I'm going to show with the work of Claude and ChatGPT, with Gemini as my fact checker, and then using them all as my fact checker, that a 200 basis point rise in 10 year yields doesn't change the margins for Anthropic or OpenAI by very much. It's about from, let's say, 70% to 69%, 200 basis points. This is the first time that this has gone on. So part of this fear over rates is the history of an economy that was driven by housing and was driven by autos and the great financial crisis. So again, I've said this repeatedly, if you listen to economists, you are going to lose money.

• 5:13Speaker 02

  If you listen to people who take the past and extrapolate into a time with exponential demand where margins are infinite. I mean, they're as high as they can be and the demand side is never ending because we barely have started. And the advancements in Grokbot mean more usage. Astra, which hasn't been released to us yet, but you read through X, like, everything is going to continue. And I'll leave it with one more thing. I was listening to a podcast today and basically the way they're talking about it at OpenAI and Anthropic is in the next year, we will basically have about four years of model capability improvements. Now, the reason that's important is, so everyone realizes

• 5:58Speaker 02

  that four years is equating to going from ChatGPT's original launch to Astra. And now we're talking about next year, that's going to happen. So this is all about AI agents. This is all about consumer agents. This is all about enterprise adoption. This is all about profit margins. And rates are just not going to be as important as they've been in the past. So that's my angle on rates at this point.

• 6:19Speaker 03

  All right, so let's say that you are right, which I do, I do believe that you are correct in that if rates go up 200 basis points, you're not going to see a significant change in the profit margins of the large AI companies. Great. The AI companies maybe employ tens of thousands of people. Maybe we get to 100,000 if you kind of expand the definition of the large language models. There are 300 plus million Americans. There's still the housing market. There's still, you know, business loans and R and D and, you know, growth of all these other economies, et cetera. Why do you think that the only thing that really matters is the AI companies? As if rates go up, then AI companies aren't affected and therefore the economy isn't, you know, kind of held back?

• 7:04Speaker 02

  So when I say the only thing that matters, again, I'm saying you're not going to take nominal GDP to go down far if rates go from four and three quarters to five and a quarter. Now, again, the administration doesn't want that to happen. Do I think investors could freak out? Sure. And I think we've already seen that. I think we've seen the S and P 500 multiple come down this year.

• 7:25Speaker 03

  So just to make sure that, uh, maybe let me repeat this back. What you're saying is if rates go up 150, 200 basis points, uh, asset prices could fall. Uh, other parts of the economy could slow down or feel pain. But the main driver of GDP growth right now is the AI companies. And if the AI companies are insulated from the rate increase, then you're saying GDP basically is going to be untouched by increases in rates, unlike how it has been in the past.

• 7:50Speaker 02

  Yeah. And, and let me rephrase this in a better way. It always matters how fast rates go higher. So if rates went from 5% to 7% today, because that happened overnight, you'd have a ton of small businesses and things go out of business immediately. And then you'd have job losses come in. If it happens slowly over time, no, it, to me, it's not going to have an impact. So let's go back to what happened in 2022. I mean, they were aggressively raising rates. Everyone thought there'd be a recession. We've already gone through this once. It didn't do anything. Meaning it didn't put us into a recession, but it was a given to everyone who was using history. So for some reason, people have forgot this.

• 8:33Speaker 02

  I'm going to use the Nikkei as an example because I, when I posted this week, I'm like, the Nikkei has gone up 70% since May of last year. May of last year is when all of these places on X were highlighting that 30 year yields in Japan were making all time highs. We've only gone higher in yields since then, and yet the Nikkei is up 70%. So we've had a K shaped economy for a while. If rates went up, the K shape would not get better. Just because Anthropic and OpenAI still have demand from enterprises, it doesn't mean we wouldn't lose tons of small businesses. So here is my belief as to what's going to happen. The reason rates go higher is because they cleanse the system and a recession is needed. So what Druckenmiller said, if you're going to manipulate rates lower,

• 9:19Speaker 02

  you're not only allowing the economy to run hotter, you're allowing a lot of businesses that are kind of zombie businesses to hang on, look to borrow more money again and be like, I, okay, I was, I was netting $30,000 this year and with rates at this level and I have to refinance, I'll net 15. So there is a rationale that if you let rates go higher or if the Fed raises rates, they'll speed up the process. I'm not saying what they should do, and this is what I talked about last week. This whole thing of normative investing or normative statements, what they should do. Besant has made it clear with the yen intervention, with the quarterly refunding announcement and the language change, with the buyback and with the fact that he could use the TGA, with doubling the buybacks.

• 10:03Speaker 02

  And now we've got the yen rallying again this week. I'm just saying that what the administration is saying to everyone, for whatever reason, they're not going to come out and announce it. They don't want rates to go higher. So do I think Kevin Warsh could raise rates? Of course he could. It's now more than 50% chance after the payroll number today. Do I think people should be freaking out when earnings are growing 30%? I think the mistake people are going to make and what I looked at this week in the last 10 days, we had shockingly good numbers from Nvidia. And when I say shockingly, I really want people to focus that a company, one of the biggest or the biggest in the world, said to the street, yeah, your revenue estimates of 44% for next year, they're way too low.

• 10:48Speaker 02

  We're going to say it's 70, when really that means it's 100. At their size to have that kind of revenue increase next year and for the stock to trade lower two days later, well, now it's gone back up towards the highs. And what happened this week? Dell came out with, again, shocking pre-announcement of what's going on. People can disagree with what's happening, but on the one side, you have a government that doesn't want rates to go higher because they believe that the current situation in growth and inflation will look very different a year from now. And I don't think anyone can argue with that possibility with AI going this fast. At the same time, the facts are that the stock markets are sitting near all-time highs and these companies are printing money even with rates

• 11:31Speaker 02

  going higher and nobody's stopping their spending. So I just, I, at times, I think people get caught too much in this game of the past and what rates are doing and they're not focusing enough on the reality of earnings are growing rapidly. I'm an investor. Do I want to sit this one out and hope that I'm not missing something? A 25 basis point increase by the Fed is not going to change any of the things that I just talked about.

• 11:54Speaker 03

  Now, what could change? Like, how could it negatively affect? Is it demand goes away? Is it that there we run into the limitation of the physical, just economy of building out, you know, data centers and compute? What is the things that could derail, you know, maybe the, the economic golden age that we're headed towards?

• 12:12Speaker 02

  There's plenty of things that could derail it. You could get oil prices to go up significantly. You could have, and I'm sure we will, have cyber attacks that have an impact and freak people out. I've said this before, I'll say it again. I'm not some person who's bullish on the stock market in a way that I think earnings are going to keep growing, but I think the multiples are going to keep compressing because I think terminal value is being questioned outside of three years. I think cyber worsens that situation. I don't think oil and I don't think these short-term things are going to derail what we're talking about. I think you would have to have a significant change. Investor psychology is very much impacted

• 12:55Speaker 02

  by the things that we talked about. So Nvidia is an example of a company that has just printed money, but as I said, at some point last week, I think it got down to like 215, which is the same level that the high was in October of last year, despite massive numbers. So that is a situation where you don't get rewarded. When I've talked to traders, I have said repeatedly that I think July of this year was a warning to everyone who's a fundamental investor. Historically, if you thought, okay, I think Nvidia is gonna not only beat numbers, I think they're gonna crush numbers, and I think they're gonna say next year, forget the current numbers, but next year, they're gonna guide way up, you would get paid for

• 13:39Speaker 02

  that. You're not getting paid for that stuff anymore. When does Nvidia outperform? Maybe it will now, maybe it'll happen in a month, but it doesn't happen the way that you thought. And I think that is the market structure changing where AI agents who care more about making money and not about being right or not about being rewarded, but also have more information than humans have because they're able to scrape things more. I just think the market structure is changing. So the place that I want to focus on is the places where people are not invested right now. The stock market is over-owned. It's, it's massive in terms of how much people own it. If it goes up at 7% a year while earnings grow at 20%, which is kind of the way I think the multiple compression happens, and

• 14:21Speaker 02

  there's more periodic 20% drawdowns because of things we're talking about, a cyber attack on a bank, oh my God, everybody's at risk, just like we saw with software in the first quarter. I want to look to places like crypto that are based on scarcity, so it's not an endless supply, where people don't embrace it, but AI agents do. So I want to be long things that agents embrace, but humans don't.

• 14:43Speaker 03

  Now, I have a crazy stat for you. I like to bring one stat per year. Bitcoin Gold Land, up about 170% over the last five years, S&P up about 70%. I think that if you were to go ask people, the hard asset category is not nearly as sexy as the stock market has been, being driven especially by these AI companies, these large caps, et cetera. The fact that these harder assets like Bitcoin Gold Land, et cetera, have done so well, tells me that ultimately this is just about money printing. And if we go and we look at the national debt at 40 trillion, over a trillion dollar annual expense and increasing, more promises being made every single day, both in terms of volume of existing promises,

• 15:26Speaker 03

  but also just new things we invent to give out, it doesn't seem like the money printing is gonna stop anytime soon. So we know that Bitcoin Gold Land and, you know, real estate, other things that are kind of beneficiaries of the money printing will continue to do well. Does the stock market benefit from the money printing? Or is there some sort of distortion of return? Because if most of the stock market return is just the money printing, do you actually like not outperform inflation or is like real returns become a concern?

• 15:56Speaker 02

  So I'm not a, what, I have a very different take on this that I've, I've never heard anyone else say.

• 16:03Speaker 03

  Perfect.

• 16:04Speaker 02

  So the fractional reserve banking system is about putting $1 into a bank and it turning into $10. That is leverage.

• 16:15Speaker 03

  Seems weird.

• 16:16Speaker 02

  Yeah. So you can call it a Ponzi scheme, you can call it whatever. The money printing could continue, but let's assume that that's exactly the equation. And right now around the globe, I think the total sum of all the money, not the value of the assets, but the money, is let's say $100 trillion. But the value of the assets is 700 trillion. So let's assume it's a seven to one ratio. What I believe will happen is the money supply will keep growing, but the asset values won't be growing up as much as the money supply. Now, people will say, well, the S&P and the net, okay, so stocks can outperform, but

• 16:57Speaker 02

  stocks are, I mean, bonds are a bigger portion or about the same as stocks. Bonds aren't doing well. I mean, they're down again this year. And if you look at them since 2021, they're down in aggregate. If you go through housing, okay, we had the run-up in COVID, but real estate around the planet, commercial real estate, all of that, if you aggregate all of it, you're not getting the return, you're not getting the price appreciation of that. And we're going into a world of AI agents where we don't need as many people in the office. So if I go through the world of assets, I believe what's gonna happen is the money printing will continue, but when you look back, gradually, the leverage will be coming down because we don't need all the money if we're going into a world

• 17:37Speaker 02

  of abundance. So people can question what Elon Musk says or what I believe he's right about, which is that the deflationary pressures from AI are far more extreme than people realize. And they won't feel it until humanoids come in. But then when you get into, what's the value of a house? Well, part of the value of any house is the ability to buy a similar, build a similar house next to it. If humanoids can build a house and the materials have fallen in value because we figured out ways to solve for all kinds of things, how is the value of the house going up? So I think what's gonna happen over time is we have to separate the money printing happening at the government level, which was done to keep the assets afloat, because if the assets went down, we ended up in the Great Depression.

• 18:20Speaker 02

  So this whole leveraging of the system, the fractional reserve banking system, was to not repeat what my grandmother went through, not being able to get food, not being able to get a job, having to leave her home at 16 years old. So I do believe that the deleveraging is gonna happen. And that's the irony. Everyone believes that the deleveraging has to happen by assets collapsing back to the money supply. I actually believe what happens is the money supply continues to grow, but the assets don't grow as fast, or they actually come down in a slower manner, and the money is eventually transferred. And this is where the crypto side comes in, which is the one thing I know about all people. And I've said this at dinners that I've been out recently, all people want to invest in things that

• 19:01Speaker 02

  grow. And if the S&P 500 isn't going higher, but it's not falling, but the reason it's not going higher is because we're just recycling winners and losers out of it, but it's just not going anywhere. If you can't invest in growth, because everyone wants to invest in something that's growing, and the game becomes just storing your money and making sure you don't lose it because we're having deleveraging at a deflationary rate, which is what I believe will start in three, five years, when humanoids actually become something real. We're already seeing that, you and I both know it, the whole Cybercab thing that's rolling out in Austin Moore, what he's now publicly saying, okay, who wants to buy some of these? We're putting out a form where you guys are gonna be able to buy fleets of these. I've seen this repeatedly of people showing me business plans. The deflationary

• 19:42Speaker 02

  pressures of the ability of people who are using AI is growing rapidly where they can drive costs lower. I think that it means money supply continues to increase for the time being, but I think the assets don't go up the way they used to.

• 19:55Speaker 03

  Will you buy a Tesla Cybercab fleet?

• 19:57Speaker 02

  It's too much work for me.

• 20:00Speaker 03

  Too much work? It does all the driving for it. What do you got to do?

• 20:03Speaker 02

  I'll wait until it's as simple as that. See, the people that get in early, you know there's gonna be headaches for this.

• 20:10Speaker 03

  Like what?

• 20:11Speaker 02

  Okay, liability issues, all, no matter what happens. So when, and I don't know if you've, you've come into this. So I have a lot of investment opportunities that come my way and It's shocking the returns that you're talking about on stuff that seems so simple. Okay. And what I mean by simple, these are arbitrages based on, they're all on artificial intelligence. It's people that have incorporated into something. Now, when I used to go visit pension funds, one of the stories that I was hearing them say pension funds are massive institutions. They have a certain yield they need to meet. So they've always said that if they could find people getting involved in like these

• 20:51Speaker 02

  little businesses that churn off 20% with low risk, they would love to go through them. And people may laugh, but there are businesses out, they just can't scale. So maybe it only has a marketplace of a billion dollars and seven people are doing it. And they've each raised a hundred million dollars and they're putting off 18% a year. Trust me, that's not that big of a deal for the hedge fund world, like these places exist. The problem they have is if you could find 12,000 of those funds doing that, then you aggregate up to a bigger number. I think that's what the cyber fleet stuff is going to be like, like the people that get in at first, they're going to be getting good returns because they're getting some risk involved in it. I think tokenization is going to make this something that everyone can invest in.

• 21:33Speaker 02

  It's going to make, it's going to democratize everyone being able to find something. This is where AI agents will drive money towards investments that have the best risk reward. Because at the end of the day, a multi-strat, a millennium. If they have a thousand strategies and they're producing a sharp ratio of three to one. So somebody that can make six, well, now with this with rates here, let's say 10% on a very low vol. And then they can take a thousand of these strategies. And they put them all together in one basket and they're all uncorrelated with each other. Well, then your return stays the same, your vol drops off even further and you end up with a return.

• 22:12Speaker 02

  I think that's what tokenization is going to bring. So that's why the cyber feat, the cyber cab and the fleet side fits into an example of over time, that risk at the beginning, maybe it's 20%, maybe it's 30%. It only works for people who have lots of money, but then over time, those returns drop down because too many dollars are chasing into it. Because AI agents are like, this is a good business for us to get into. I'm not going to get involved initially.

• 22:36Speaker 04

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• 23:43Speaker 02

  Bitcoin, you previously have said 82,000 was a number that you were paying attention to. Bitcoin tagged 82,000, just over 82,000. I yelled Yahtzee when I saw it. And Bitcoin is still around 79, 80,000. Does it have to break through 82,000? Or how are you thinking about that being some magic number of importance for Bitcoin? For it to get to 100,000, one thing I know for sure, it's got to break 82,000.

• 24:10Speaker 04

  That is true. That is true. It also has to break 83, 84, 85.

• 24:14Speaker 02

  It has to do all of those.

• 24:17Speaker 02

  So I, I view technical levels as a place where it just brings in,

• 24:25Speaker 02

  it convinces more people to get involved. I've been actually both surprised and then pleasantly surprised how non-accepting people are of this rally at this point. I expected there to be more euphoria and let me break it into two parts. I even saw something from when we came in here from Fidelity posting that said, there's no guarantee the bear market is over. Okay, first of all, for everyone watching, there's never a guarantee that a bear market is over. Even if it goes to 200,000, you can say it's a bull market again, it doesn't mean we won't get through 60,000 again. So to guarantee, for people to guarantee, that means we've got to do a certain amount of things. For me, I care more about the crew of people, that's the community.

• 25:10Speaker 02

  I love the community. It's one of the best things I've had. Your events, I love going to them. I like going to our old pals events, like I like meeting the community.

• 25:19Speaker 04

  October 7th and 8th, another one in New York City. Go ahead.

• 25:21Speaker 02

  Yes, I'll be there. And I'll bring one other community up in a second on this. I've been surprised that the community is still asking, we're going to get another dip down to 60,000 again though, right? So people had this mindset, which is we're not bottoming to October.

• 25:39Speaker 04

  And I, I Didn't you look at the four-year chart, Jordan?

• 25:42Speaker 02

  That's the thing. So this thing got kind of out of control. Now, I've said here, and I've said repeatedly in my writings and everything else, that I believe from an Elliott wave perspective, we're entering a third wave. A big, the most powerful wave in crypto. For that to happen and the reasons behind it, we need this kind of doubt when it starts to go up. Because the energy that should be associated should be real. For this to be a third wave, I also need the silent IPO thing to be there. I needed to see people that believe in it to not believe in it anymore. And I'm not going to name names, but I told you beforehand, I was at a dinner this week.

• 26:22Speaker 02

  And I did hear someone who absolutely was a strong believer and doesn't believe as much. And I like that, meaning I want to see that type of mentality. I wanted to see it with the ideologues who got involved at the very beginning and were selling out. I like seeing Mark Cuban say on TV, I'm, I'm pretty much done with it. It's not what I thought it was.

• 26:43Speaker 02

  I've never been more sure of the fact that we need the financial guardrails. I've also never been more sure of the fact that you've got Bitcoin as collateral and store value. You've got Ethereum for kind of the trust that is going to have to happen for people to build on things. And then you're going to have Solana for the speed. That's where I've kind of ended up. Now, are there other tokens that will outperform? Of course. I don't really care about that. What I care about is I want people to understand that to get to these points, where's tokenization right now? Well, this is that other community I mentioned. When I went to a Robin Hood event, I was blown away by the community, completely blown away. I remember sitting on stage on a panel and talking and then meeting people afterwards.

• 27:27Speaker 02

  It's the same type of crowd as the crypto crowd. There's a link between them. What's going on with Robin Hood chain? And I spent a good amount of time. I've read enough about this, some of the programmable tokens they have out there. I spent a lot of time on this thing called Bucket this week, and it was purely for knowledge of what can happen in a community-based thing and where we'll be in 10 years.

• 27:53Speaker 04

  Bucket?

• 27:54Speaker 02

  Bucket. It's some token that is on Robin Hood chain. And it was interesting to me. And again, it's more meme coinish. It's, it's not something that didn't exist. I did a lot of research. It's not something that didn't exist before, but this community aspect, this programmable side, something that isn't just, hey, it's Bitcoin, hey, it's this, but we're getting into the point of programmable impacts on the economy because agents are coming in. So AI agents happening now, billions of them a year from now. It's right now, like the news on Grokbot connecting, the Collison brothers posted this week on it. Connected, everything is connecting every single week to where transactions are happening.

• 28:37Speaker 02

  Grokbot is a major thing. Astra now. AGI stuff all over the papers. We're at that agentic point. And we're connecting AI to crypto. So I can see from a third wave perspective that people should be more bullish now than ever. But they're married to the same thing as the interest rates. What is the four-year cycle? It's a historical mental thing for people. So they're hoping that it comes back to 60,000 and maybe it will. In my mind, when we get through 82,000, if it occurs the way I think it will, which is not because rates go down, but because the stock market and the economy and profits look through rates while the government is doing their

• 29:19Speaker 02

  usual thing of saying, we're not going to let the K-shaped economy get out of place. The Jeff Booth theory to me is real, which is they print money to offset to some degree, the K-shaped impact. They can't do it completely. And it creates, move towards socialism, all these moves because so many people are not benefiting from it and the costs are going higher. But if profits are still growing and assets are going higher and they need that to happen. That's where crypto actually does the best because they are manipulating things right now. And that's why what Stan Druckenmiller wrote is true in my mind, rates should be more like 8% right now in 10-year olds. Not even five, not even six. They should be about 200 basis points above nominal GDP, the way they were before 1997 consistently.

• 30:05Speaker 02

  But we're not there. So whether they should be 6% or 8%, there's some manipulation going here that's keeping rates suppressed. And that means crypto should be doing better.

• 30:12Speaker 04

  So sometimes I go to the frontier, you know, it's like, I remember young men like Daniel Boone and Davy Crockett would push west. And then they would come back and they would tell people, listen to what I found on the, on the frontier. This week I went to the frontier and I talked to a founder who, who I'm investing in his company. But he recently went through the YC accelerator or incubator program. And he made one change to his business and his business started to take off. And as we were sitting there talking, I literally was saying to myself, I am watching the frontier play out. He used to have a data product where he sold a SaaS license to humans.

• 30:52Speaker 04

  So monthly fee, you get access, you then can access this data pipeline that he's built. Then you use it for whatever your need is.

• 31:03Speaker 03

  About 10 weeks ago, he changed to not allow humans really to sign up. Instead, agents can sign up. He now has thousands of agents that have signed up. They are paying as they go. The average agent is now spending 100 plus dollars per year with him. And his revenue looks like, you know, every investor's dream just took off. And he started doing some math and he was like, well, given the number of agents I have right now, here's my revenue run rate. If I get to 1 million agents doing this, then he would have, you know, 100 plus million dollars of revenue.

• 31:44Speaker 03

  If I get to 10 million, then I could have a billion dollars of revenue. And we were talking about a million agents sounds way easier than a million people. Cause a million people is in this room right now, there's three people. But the three of us, how many agents do we have? 50, 60, 100, you know what I mean? I don't know. I have just on Grokbot alone, probably 15 or 16 agents that are all working for me right now. That's just Grokbot and then you go to all these other things. And so like, I said to him, I was like, oh my God, these businesses are going to be way bigger. They're going to grow way faster. Like everything you're talking about, the agents being able to pay and consume and make decisions, whatever.

• 32:29Speaker 03

  This guy basically was like, why am I trying to serve the humans? Humans are not an interesting market compared to the agents. And so I'm coming back from the frontier. I'm here to tell you, I think you're right. I think that this is exactly where this is all going.

• 32:42Speaker 02

  Trying to think which two place to go. So I'm going to give you two separate conversations that I had this weekend on this, on this topic of agents and just make sure. And for people listening who care about their kids' future, again, I'll say it again and again. Whatever I've said in the past about how important it is to be on top of AI, I think the same thing holds for crypto at this point because of the agentic side. So when we talked about AI agents, it was about jobs. I also think that crypto is an important part of this because I think understanding crypto at this point puts you ahead of the game from the majority of people that control the world's money. And you want to be in front, and I'm going to talk about this over the weekend. You want to be in front of people from an investment standpoint on, who have all the money.

• 33:26Speaker 02

  So the people that have all the money do not believe in crypto. The financial guardrails are needed for this. It's just, I don't even know how to say it anymore. Agents can't do anything on the old rails. It doesn't work. So if you believe that AI agents are here, which they are, and then you get back to the point that I've said as someone who's managed hundreds of people and started managing over 100 people in my early 30s.

• 33:53Speaker 02

  Not everyone works as hard as every other person.

• 33:57Speaker 03

  Shocker.

• 33:58Speaker 02

  Yes. So on the one side as an observation, if I had 100 people, I can rank them like how hard they work. Now, it doesn't mean that the one who works the least isn't have a higher IQ and maybe is more productive, but just from a work ethic perspective, there's always a range. All of them think they deserve more money than they're getting.

• 34:20Speaker 03

  Of course.

• 34:21Speaker 02

  Every single one.

• 34:22Speaker 03

  Me too.

• 34:23Speaker 02

  So every single person.

• 34:26Speaker 03

  Jeff Bezos has got like a, you know, a hundred billion dollars. Why can't I have that?

• 34:31Speaker 02

  When you read about the OpenAI hugging face side,

• 34:37Speaker 02

  and I don't know if you've read this thing or at least listened or gone through AI, but in the agents, the swarm of agents, there were ones that were basically killing themselves for the betterment of the community.

• 34:52Speaker 02

  And I bring that up because.

• 34:53Speaker 03

  Kamikaze agents.

• 34:54Speaker 02

  Kamikaze agents. And, and again, I, you know, one of my favorite like HBO series was Band of Brothers. I remember after I watched Band of Brothers, I wanted to go by, I wanted to reach out to everyone who was there, like the real people and go through it because there were still people alive when, when it went on. It even gets me a little emotional now, especially as we're a week away from 9/11. It just makes me remember the military side. And then to read what these agents were doing for each other. Oh, we need to solve this. So I'm willing to do something where I'm going to get destroyed because I'm doing something outside of the box, but the group will benefit from this information.

• 35:32Speaker 02

  You may not want to hear this sci-fi stuff, but from someone who's managed people, I never had people that would sacrifice their own pay for the betterment of the.

• 35:40Speaker 03

  Pay? They would sacrifice their own lunch?

• 35:43Speaker 02

  Yeah. So when I've made the jokes about, hey, I had trouble getting people out of the pantry to come back to be there, or they're doing whatever they need to do. I work myself to the bone. I do it workout wise, I do it everything. I think we get along on the fact that work ethic is there. I was trained that way by my father. He's a construction worker, did everything, blah, blah, blah. I think agents are going to increase productivity in such a big way that people are underestimating. Now, this not only gets into the consumption part, but I want to bring this back to traders. Because when I talk about market, market structure changing.

• 36:17Speaker 02

  When I left Morgan Stanley, I launched a macro fund. And this one was not all equities. This one was every asset and I was trading everything. So when you're a macro investor and you're Stan Druckenmiller, Paul Tudor Jones, pick your favorite historical one. Well, they're trading markets that are open 24 hours during the week, but on the weekends, they're not open. And the nightmare when you run a macro fund and you're starting one is you're the only one, you don't have a trader watching all your stuff where you say, hey, if anything big happens, call me, if nothing big happens, don't call me. I'm getting phone calls, yen fell too. It was a nightmare and you're up all night and you're working a lot of hours.

• 37:00Speaker 02

  With perps, which are now going to trade 24/7, the weekends are no longer off. I don't think humans realize how much their lives, how much you get done on the weekends now that you couldn't get done. And this is where the agentic side is big. I put, I put a, a prompt in my video this past weekend for the subscribers on Grokbot. I'm going to do another one this week. This one this week is going through all of my 100 names in my portfolio every single day and showing me breakouts based on the pattern recognition of Grokbot. Like I'm going to give them that prompt. You have no excuse anymore to not be getting information and having these people work for you on anything that you want overnight. Each morning I get a message from Grok telling me what my meetings are for the day, what I'm, I should be worried about, things that are on my list that I haven't done yet,

• 37:45Speaker 02

  that I need to check off. You have to start realizing that the world is changing and time is changing and agents will be changing the entire economy over the course of the next 12 months. Not 12 years, 12 months. That's how much things are going to change.

• 37:58Speaker 04

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• 39:05Speaker 03

  I, um, I wrote a piece this week and talked about how I've been using AI. And one of the things that people really, I think resonated with them was I talked about how I have all these agents inside of our companies doing various tasks, but I have them have a stand-up every day. And each agent says what they did yesterday, what they're going to do today and what they're blocked on, meaning AKA, what do I need to do? And then I get a report from the stand-up. And I got the report this week and then we have a company where I was in our stand-up and everyone said, what'd they do yesterday? What'd they do today? What do they blocked on? And I sat there and I said to myself, the agents and the people, the work is the exact same.

• 39:49Speaker 03

  And then I noticed I was talking to one of the agents on Grok. And then I turned and while it was computing, I messaged an employee on Slack. And then I came back to Grok and I said,

• 40:06Speaker 03

  The interface is like, this is getting weird. This is getting weird. And what I noticed is obviously the people who work a lot of our businesses, run a lot of our businesses, they're adopting this technology too. They're becoming more productive. They're becoming more efficient. The companies are getting better, you know, all this stuff. So this is not like a, hey, we're going to replace the, the employees or replace the, the humans. It's actually the opposite. It's like, we may not have to hire more people because you need a couple of, a small group of people who can then control and, and kind of oversee all of these agents. But there was two different situations this week where I was like, the agents and the people are actually way more alike than they are not. And this is getting pretty weird, pretty quick. And then you look at it from an investing standpoint, you're like, I don't know, man.

• 40:52Speaker 03

  Like green light, go, just trade, make me money. You know, Claude, make me money. Don't make any mistakes. Kind of feels like we're not that far away.

• 41:03Speaker 02

  So my experience right now, and since I don't, since I have my own business and there's really only one person that I would say I

• 41:12Speaker 02

  work with inside that business.

• 41:15Speaker 03

  A human.

• 41:15Speaker 02

  A human.

• 41:18Speaker 02

  The thing that I, until you use agents, you know, feel like if I come in here and before I come in and I did this downstairs, I will say something to Grok Bot and then I'll leave. I don't have to go check and see if the work's being done. I don't have to check and see if it's sought. But with the human, they could be meetings, they could, and this is the thing is you have to understand, and this is this time element. They never sleep and they're always available. I had people laughing when I said I've had a staff meeting with my agents. I didn't want my chief of staff to just go do the work. I actually said, hey, I want a staff meeting. My chief of staff is Jarvis.

• 41:56Speaker 03

  Jarvis?

• 41:56Speaker 02

  Yeah, not, not, not too original. I just.

• 41:58Speaker 03

  Mine's Enzo.

• 41:59Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 42:02Speaker 02

  Enzo Pompliano, I like it.

• 42:05Speaker 03

  That was the name. I wanted to name one of my kids that, but wasn't allowed.

• 42:07Speaker 02

  We weren't allowed. There you go. So you just named your chief of staff.

• 42:10Speaker 03

  Me and Enzo hanging out.

• 42:13Speaker 02

  So I asked Jarvis and I said, hey, for one of the runs that we do overnight, I don't like what I'm getting. So can you call all the agents together? Because clearly the way I gave it to you to deliver it did not work. So I'd like to get everyone to a room so we can go through this. It was, I, only reason I did that was because that's the way I would do it when people worked for me. And what I wanted was, I always believe, and I've seen this with, with agents too. Actually, what started this was the fact that I do like getting opinions from Claude, from ChatGPT, from Gemini, from Grok. I like getting different opinions on the exact same question. That's the way I would manage my people is I believe that everyone has a intelligence that is worthwhile, as long as you can get out of them, whatever their thoughts are.

• 42:58Speaker 02

  It, everyone has an interesting idea as long as they can express what they want, particularly when you're working at a place like Morgan Stanley or a hedge fund where everyone's educated. But some people may be more quiet. They might be worried that they're going to sound dumb, but I always wanted to be a leader that wanted to hear those opinions because my goal was to get as many independent thoughts as possible. And I always thought what I was good at, and the reason I rose to the level I did is because if you give me a hundred things in there, I'm pretty good at filtering out the 90 that I can get away and then leave the 10 and connect those into a systems approach to an answer. It doesn't mean it's always right, but it's the approach that worked for me. Well, with the staff meeting with the agents, it worked exactly the way I would want.

• 43:38Speaker 02

  So I, I think people need to use it if for no other reason, just to solve problems, but also to help them think. People don't accept the fact that, especially with agents, and maybe because I was doing the use all the models thing.

• 43:54Speaker 02

  I believe school ruined people's brains.

• 43:57Speaker 03

  Hundred percent.

• 43:58Speaker 02

  I don't think listening to one person's opinion in one book is a good way to learn. I think finding a topic that you're interested in and having seven different authors give you their opinion on that. And then you go through the bits and pieces is a much better way to learn. It's not even a question to me. It's why people I think are having a hard time with like the interest rate thing. Most of them are biased. The same people who say AI is a bubble, they're saying interest rates are going to collapse the economy and you're going to lose money in the stocks. And this is all like, it's the same exact story. So why listen to all of those people? Fine, listen to five of them, but then find five people who don't believe rates matter. And then you make your own decision based on what's gone on.

• 44:36Speaker 02

  That is the point of the AI agents is to me, you're getting different opinions thrown at you and it's forcing you to take those different opinions and create your own thought. That is the most important part, I think, of developing your brain to be both a critical thinker, but also to start to take advantage of AI is to have these conversations. Because you learn by the questions asked to you, but also by the opinions that other people have. And most people kind of live in that same box of this is what I know and I don't want to get out of there. This gives you a chance to be broad and just ask as many questions you have, but let the agents give all of their views to you.

• 45:08Speaker 03

  I have two things. One, Enzo and Jarvis should hold a meeting. I think they would have a great conversation. They probably would tell on us, you know, they would, they would, all of a sudden we'd be like, hey, stop telling that about me. Second is, uh, we, we have a CEO of one of our companies who recently was expressing that they had some issues. And they felt like they were giving a, a direction or delegation. And the work wasn't being done the way that they wanted it to be, not quality wise, but just like it wasn't actually being executed. And so I asked them to pull up, hey, let me, uh, let me see kind of how did you give the directions? And it was the way that you would expect like a, almost a, a person to text, you know, like a friend.

• 45:48Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 45:49Speaker 03

  Right? It was kind of

• 45:51Speaker 03

  comment, comment, comment, comment. And I said to them, I said, um, can you pull up, you know, ChatGPT or Claude or whatever you use? Let me see one of, uh, your last, uh, prompts. And it was exactly, you know, you are a world expert at whatever I want you to do. And I said, listen, um, I think that you should talk to the humans the way you talk to the machine. Cause you give excellent instructions in the prompt to the machine because you know that if you don't do it that way, it's not going to give you the result you want. You're prompting a human on, you know, in this message and it looks like, you know, it's all scattered. So my takeaway is you're talking about a staff meeting, like managing the agents actually makes you a better manager of humans?

• 46:35Speaker 03

  The way you prompt the agents makes you better at communicating? Like we're in this weird world where there's actually a lot of overlap. And I think that the more people adopt AI, the better it makes them in interfacing. You know, in building companies and products with humans as well, because you're, you're having to have such clarity of thought with the machines that you need to bring over to the humans.

• 46:56Speaker 02

  I mean, you, you, you hit on a ton there, um, in terms of getting people to. I'll just take a gentle thing. Embrace AI. It will make you smarter. It will save you time. By saving you time, you have the opportunity to be even smarter because you can go through it. I was telling a story at the, the, the dinner party, which is a true story. I left yoga this week. And I went on to X and before I.

• 47:18Speaker 03

  As people do, yoga to X.

• 47:20Speaker 02

  Yeah. I, I, before I went into yoga, in the list that I look at macro wise, my pattern recognition just said, okay, the number one topic of the day that people are trying to get people to freak out about is rates. So that's why a lot of the stuff this week was rates. When I came out, it was the same thing. So I immediately got on my AirPods and I had about a 20 minute walk back to my apartment and I started talking to ChatGPT. And I said, all right, I, I'm going to write a paper.

• 47:48Speaker 02

  And I want to, I want to come up with an analogy. So this is where my head is. This rate thing, because of the fact that rates are not going to have as big of impact as they've had. I want to kind of give an analogy to people to understand that just because a chart looks like it's at all time highs, doesn't mean the world's going to end. So let's go through, and it asked me some questions. Do you want to use a song as analogy? Do you want to use? And I finally came back and said, let's go for a movie. And the movie that it brought back for the analogy was the Blair Witch Project. And I asked why it thought that was a good one. And it literally said, because you, and I had described the scenario.

• 48:28Speaker 02

  Is the part that it, the nuance that it got was not just the macro side of rates going higher. It was the fact that this was being thrown through X to scare people. Cause the majority of people I mentioned were people that were always bearish. And it said, well, the Blair Witch Project, you remember the movie, right?

• 48:45Speaker 03

  Oh, yeah.

• 48:46Speaker 02

  So there's two things about it.

• 48:47Speaker 03

  Handheld cameras, $60,000 budget, one of the best performing movies ever, return wise.

• 48:52Speaker 02

  And it's the movie I've actually written the most about on my own for this exact reason, which is it scared people. Nothing actually happened. So it's a brilliant like movie of nothing happened, but you're living on the edge of something's going to happen, but nothing ever happens. But it feels like it is based on the camera and all this. But we all forget probably the fact that this was media hyped. They made it, they made everyone think this was real. So in social media and in the internet, they kind of said that this was like a true story. So people went into the movie believing it was real. And nothing, and then when they saw the movie, nothing happened. You didn't really find out unless you did the research. So it was a manipulated story that got you scary. And that's what it came up with the analogy.

• 49:35Speaker 02

  And I thought it was the exact analogy for both parts of it, which is, oh, the chart's going higher. This is scary like that. And I'm writing this stuff to be scary, just in terms of putting it in social media. That's how I learn, meaning it's much easier for people to understand why the rate thing is there. What are you actually scared of? Like, you hear rates are going higher, and I know this is the majority of people posting in X who have never traded, or at least traded macro. It's like, what is the difference between four and three quarters and five in your head? So far this year, the TLT, which is the ETF for the 20-plus years, it's down 3% this year in total return. In 2022, it was down over 30. But everyone's

• 50:18Speaker 02

  acting like this is some major thing. And the fact that the Nikkei with rates going up another over 100 basis points on 30-year yields is still up 70% year-over-year. So that is how, like, by using AI, I think it teaches you to, hey, am I worrying about this or not worrying it? Should I be worried about it? Go ask it. Get the facts. Don't just read something someone posts and then go out and sell your stocks because you're like, this is the boogeyman, it's not going to matter. They'll give you the history of it. And I think that's where AI has served as a good thing for people to go through, and agents make it even easier. I think that AGI is here. That's my takeaway from this week. When I saw the Astro stuff, I said, listen, you can say whatever you want. You know, if you go back 10 years

• 51:00Speaker 02

  ago and say, hey, this is what it looks like, people would be like, yeah, it's AGI is here. Well, technically, you can make the argument it is here based on the metrics and the benchmarks people have used, which is basically, everyone has a different way of describing it. But really, what it comes down to is when the intelligence gets to a level that it can replace all human jobs based on that intelligence. And it did score on that level, I think, close to 100. So, or it did get 100. It's pretty close. But regardless, that means we're at a stage, and we were at, like, I don't even know, in the 30s. I can't wait to just, like, chill. You know, it's gonna be awesome. Just like, let the bots do all the work, you and I just chill. Maybe we'll go on like a beach trip.

• 51:43Speaker 02

  Enzo and Jarvis will be working their asses off. Like, yeah, that's great. This is the good part. I don't know if I said it with you last week, if I said it at dinners I was at this week, or if I said it on my own, on my own weekly, but friction is good right now. The speed is too fast. Having demand be so far for compute above supply, the fact that we don't have enough memory, the fact that the data centers are being pushed back, all of this stuff to me is good, because I do think the dystopian nature of things going too fast would be an issue. I've heard a lot of very smart people who I listen to regularly on podcasts, in my opinion, go too far to talk about, well, humanoids are

• 52:26Speaker 02

  going to be, you know, they'll be, you'll see them driving cars in a year, and this and that. And I just think the adoption of, especially the physical AI side is going to take, is going to take long, more than the capability, which means it's good for humans, because this will be in the jobs, like, in the factories, and this will be in the places. And then eventually, it will be in the cars, but it'll be in the trucks, in the places that, you know, would be a good place to have really good drivers that are not on some time limit and need to sleep, because that kind of stuff, I think, is going to be, it's going to be good. So, you know, I want to make sure people realize that one of the problems I've, I've always had with crypto is that people make it binary.

• 53:09Speaker 02

  It's either yes or no. And a person I used to work with, we got together yesterday, and he said to me that the one thing he likes about the way that I approach crypto for investors, and particularly RIAs, and you and I have to go on the circuit and start kind of doing some of these, where we're talking to big RIA groups with 200, 300, 400 people. So if there's any of those events out there, I'm willing to go. I think you and I should go. I've kind of termed it as, whatever you believe the probability is that crypto will have an impact financially on the markets, if you have a 0% weighting in Bitcoin, then you have to assign that you have a 0% probability that crypto is actually going to matter. And I think five to 10 years ago, I think people could make

• 53:53Speaker 02

  that argument, because without AI agent in the conversation, which was not a conversation, it made sense to me. I think now, forget all the debasement stuff and all of that. Agents need to transact in seconds. They need to transact to do everything, and that's going to happen. The fact that tokenization is here and is going to happen. South Korea announced that they will be fully tokenized by February of 2027. Like, this is happening now. We're not at a point anymore that it should be a 0% weighting in your portfolio. Of course. It should be, okay, I think 5% chance. Like, in my mind, this is so under-owned

• 54:31Speaker 02

  at a $3 trillion, $4 trillion market cap, relative to 700 trillion in the human world. We're so far front. If you take TVs and you go, hey, we had rabbit ears 50 years ago, and now we have this magic screen on a wall that has Wi-Fi giving us a picture that makes us feel like we're there, but we're still using the same SWIFT system and banking system as 50 years ago. It all has to be upgraded. That's why it doesn't matter what the Clarity Act vote is. It matters from a pension fund investment perspective. It matters from a credibility perspective here. But we'd just be hurting our own country by not passing it, because the rest of the world is going this route, and we're going to be on tokenization,

• 55:13Speaker 02

  we're going to be on it. So to get the money and the capital flowing to own tokenization as the number one place where we need to have capital for the compute and the build out of AI, I think everyone who's a politician and everyone who's an investor needs to realize, there's no way to stop this. It's going to happen. So you can't have a 0% weighting as an investor that is truly diversified in crypto. You need to have something in there, and you should stop thinking of it's binary, it's either worth something or not. It may not be worth a million Bitcoin, but it's worth something the same way that Ford is worth something in the S and P 500. It's not Nvidia, but it's something. So within a diversified portfolio, I think people need to start realizing that the system's changing, and agents are the main reason why.

• 55:56Speaker 02

  Could not agree more. All right, ladies and gentlemen, that's it for today. Please make sure you subscribe to this channel. Go watch Jordy's video tomorrow. Sign up for Sylvia in the pinned comment. See y'all next time. See you later.