#951 Will Bitcoin Continue To Fall To $30k? - BTC On-Chain Analytics

In today's episode, I break down Bitcoin On-Chain Analytics. I'm usually joined by WiIl Clemente on Saturdays to discuss his research through articulating his weekly newsletter. Unfortunately, Will was unable to join us this week. Instead, I go through the Blockware Newsletter to help you understand why Bitcoin crashed this week and what you should do during a crash. This on-chain breakdown was streamed live on the "The Best Business Show." To see the video with the corresponding charts referenced throughout the interview, go to my Anthony Pompliano YouTube Channel ======================= Today’s episode is brought to you by Coinbase Wallet, your key to the world of crypto. Crypto wasn’t made to just buy, sell, and hodl. With Coinbase Wallet, you can do so much more: Collect more NFTs, earn more with DeFi, and trade more than 4,000 tokens. Whether you’re looking to play, stake, spend, or just explore a trending new protocol — Coinbase Wallet is your key to more. Long-time HODLers already know that wallets are a must-have if you want complete control of your crypto. That’s why Coinbase Wallet makes self-custody simple, while providing the safety and security of the most trusted name in crypto. Visit http://coinbase.com/wallet to learn more. ======================= If you’re a regular listener of the podcast, I would bet that two things are true: First: You’re passionate about Web3 and protecting your personal data And two: that you’re a human. If I’m right, then congratulations! You’re entitled to all the benefits of the decentralized web. But there’s a catch: As Web3-enabled tech — like NFTs, smart contracts, and DAOs — drive more elements of our “real world” lives online, proving that you’re a person – without surrendering personal data – becomes exponentially more valuable. And exponentially more difficult. This is why Unstoppable Domains launched Humanity Check. Humanity Check proves that you’re, well, you – without revealing personal data. No matter where you go on the web, you’ll have total control over which apps you want to share data with…and which ones you don’t. Prefer to be completely clouded in mystique? No worries - Humanity Check is 100% opt in. If you want to feel alive, or at least prove you are, head to http://UnstoppableDomains.com and get your NFT domain with Humanity Check. ======================= Crypto is all about giving the power back to the people and our sponsor, Pipe, is doing that in a big way. Pipe is the world’s first trading platform that allows you to trade recurring revenue streams for up-front capital. And with Pipe’s new API, companies with recurring revenue can build seamless, embedded financing options into their platforms. One of the most interesting uses for Pipe’s new API right now is Compass Mining’s “Mine Now, Pay Later” which powers payment plans on bitcoin mining hardware so more miners can start or scale with a smaller up-front investment. Whether you’re looking for mining hardware or scaling any business with recurring revenue, check out Pipe to access growth capital with: No loans. No dilution. No restrictive covenants or warrants. Just growth on your terms And right now, Pomp Podcast listeners can access tens of thousands of dollars even millions fee-free for 12 months. Whether you are a bitcoin mining company looking to enable financing for your customers or a SaaS, DTC, or any business that has recurring revenue, sign up at http://pipe.com/pomp to start trading today.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:02Anthony Pompliano?

  What's up everyone, this is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. In today's episode, Will Clemente couldn't join me for our weekly sit-down, so instead, I just break down all of the charts that he put together. I hope that you enjoy this, and please bear with me, as obviously, I'm nowhere near as astute in these metrics as Will, but I'm doing my best to keep up. So, before we get into this episode, though, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. Today's episode is brought to you by Coinbase Wallet, your key to the world of crypto. Crypto wasn't made to just buy, sell, and hold. With Coinbase Wallet, you can do so much more. Collect more NFTs, earn more with DeFi, and trade more than 4,000 tokens. Whether you're looking to play,

• 0:46Anthony Pompliano?

  stake, spend, or just explore a trending new protocol, Coinbase Wallet is your key to more. Longtime holders already know that wallets are a must-have if you want complete control of your crypto. That's why Coinbase Wallet makes self-custody simple, while providing the safety and security of the most trusted name in crypto. Visit Coinbase.com/wallet to learn more. Again, that's Coinbase.com/wallet and learn more today. Today's episode is brought to you by Unstoppable Domains. If you're a regular listener of this podcast, I'd bet that the two things are true. First, you're passionate about Web 3 and protecting your personal data, and two, you're a human being. If I'm right, then congratulations, you're entitled to all the benefits of the decentralized web. But here's

• 1:29Anthony Pompliano?

  the catch. As Web 3-enabled technology, like NFTs, smart contracts, and DAOs dive more elements of our real-world lives online, proving that you're a person without surrendering your personal data becomes exponentially more valuable, and exponentially more difficult at the same time. This is why Unstoppable Domains launched Humanity Check. Humanity Check proves that you're, well, you, without revealing any of your personal data. No matter where you go on the web, you'll have total control over which apps you want to share your data with, and which ones you don't. Prefer to be completely clouded and mystique? No worries, Humanity Check is 100% opt-in. If you want to feel alive, or at least prove you are, head to unstoppabledomains.com

• 2:10Anthony Pompliano?

  Today and get your NFT domain with humanity check again head on over to unstoppable domains dot com and get your NFT domain with humanity check today. Today's episode is brought to you by pipe crypto is all about giving the power back to the people and our sponsor pipe is doing that in the big way. Pipe is the world's first trading platform that allows you to trade recurring revenue streams for upfront capital and with pipes new API companies with recurring revenue can build seamless embedded financing options into their platforms. One of the most interesting uses for pipes new API right now is compass minings mine now pay later, which powers payment plans on Bitcoin mining hardware so more miners can start or scale with a smaller upfront investment.

• 2:53Anthony Pompliano?

  Whether you're looking for mining hardware or scaling any business with recurring revenue, check out pipe to access growth capital with no loans, no dilution, no restrictive covenants or warrants, just growth on your terms. And right now, pump podcast listeners can access tens of thousands of dollars, even millions fee free for 12 months. Whether you are a Bitcoin mining company looking to enable financing for your customers or a SAS DTC or any business that has recurring revenue, sign up at pipe.com slash pump. Again, pipe.com slash pump to start trading today.

• 3:30Speaker 01

  Anthony Pompliano runs pump investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of pump investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by pump or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only.

• 3:53Anthony Pompliano?

  What's up guys bang bang. This is the overview of what happened in the Bitcoin market over the last week. Let's jump right in first Bitcoin has been trading around $36,000 or so. There's a lot of volatility across asset classes with Bitcoin actually holding up pretty well compared to the rest of the market. If we then go look at the actual Bitcoin network stats themselves, what we'll find is that Bitcoin is about a $700 billion asset. The inflation rate unchanged still at 1.77% over 90%.

• 4:20Anthony Pompliano?

  Of Bitcoin has already been issued and is in the current circulating supply. As we look at the real exchange volume, you can see $5.71 billion trading every 24 hours. That mining reward value, that means that miners were paid $33 million over the last 24 hours to help secure the most decentralized secure computing network in the world. The GBTC premium has turned to a discount and is at negative 33%. Bitcoin's still almost 50% down from its all time high, but it's up about 9% or so from the local cycle low. If we then go ahead and we take a look and compare some of these asset classes, it gets kind of nasty. Over the last year Bitcoin is down 36%. The S and P 500 is also negative at negative 2%. Gold, holding strong at plus 5%.

• 5:05Anthony Pompliano?

  But if you go to any other time period, two through 10 years, Bitcoin absolutely destroying the returns of both gold and the S and P 500. If we then take a look at what exactly is going on with the Bitcoin price? We see here that the Bitcoin price has only been above this level for 400 days. If you bought Bitcoin 91% of the time of its life and held till today, you're still in the money. But if you happen to buy it in the 8.2% of the days where it was actually higher than today, you're underwater. So naturally, paying attention to that stat continues to be important. Then let's go ahead and take a look at the side by side comparison of each one of these assets. We've got Bitcoin, gold, the S and P 500, NASDAQ and TLT. We see that the 10 year compound annual growth rate, still 142% for Bitcoin,

• 5:51Anthony Pompliano?

  drastically outperforming any of the other assets. If we then take a look at the five year sharp ratio, we see that Bitcoin coming in at over 1.5, still making it an attractive asset to put into any portfolio, especially if you're looking for non-correlated assets. Bitcoin continues to be the apex predator of financial markets from that regard. Now let's go ahead and take a look. Will Clemente and the Blockware team putting together a fantastic breakdown of various statistics throughout this past week. I highly suggest that you go subscribe to their email. As Will and the team points out, Bitcoin had a really volatile week. But of course, if we start to look at some of the underlying metrics, it tells a very interesting story. First, we have the 180 Weekly exponential whole moving average. This essentially is a moving average that weights the factors to recent price action.

• 6:36Anthony Pompliano?

  It just turned red for only the fourth time in Bitcoin history, meaning the moving average is actually declining rather than increasing. Another indicator that they've been looking at for a long time now is the short-term holder cost basis or realized price that currently sits somewhere around $46,900. Bear markets typically involve multiple failed underside retests of that price point. And so what we see is that once again, it went ahead, it tested that short-term holder cost basis, and it rejected it right off of the trend line. If we then go ahead and we take a look, the Blockware team still views the $30,000 mark or somewhere in that low 30,000s as the place where likely we will see some sort of reset and visit that area.

• 7:20Anthony Pompliano?

  That is based on a bunch of on-chain macro oscillators, all saying it's likely to retest somewhere in that low 30,000 range. The correlation to the NASDAQ remains extremely high as market participants put Bitcoin in with tech and all their other risk on assets. Then if we take a look at the DXY, we see that that's pushing towards multi-year highs, and Bitcoin has seen a sharp inverse correlation to that dollar index. So let's then jump into the network statistics. All of those continue to decline, unfortunately. It's showing a decrease in speculative retail and exuberance in the market. Then we jump to the actual transfer volume dominated by transactions below $10,000, and that's also seen a perpetual decline.

• 8:03Anthony Pompliano?

  Again, Will and the team pointing out that this indicates a transaction batching by exchanges paired with a primary decrease in bull market retail market participants. Then lastly, let's jump and look at the long-term holder dynamics. What we can see here is despite that macro backdrop, under the surface, crypto natives are still holding on tight. The amount of supply hasn't moved in at least one year, continues to grind to new all-time highs, and the long-term holder supply is also increasing, which is very interesting when compared to their cost basis. The rate of decline in long-term holder cost basis is the sharpest by far in Bitcoin's history, and when it's paired with an increase in the holdings, it shows a level of adoption from top buyers to long-term holders.

• 8:45Anthony Pompliano?

  Now, as we continue to look at various metrics, Will and the Blockware team continue to do a great job at all the on-chain derivative analysis. But ultimately, if you just look at the sentiment as well, you can see it all over the market. Stocks, commodities, real estate, Bitcoin, and crypto at large. Everyone is super, super bearish. And so I tend to think that the fear is actually overstated. People need to be aware. They need to be prepared. But I don't think that stocks, or crypto, Bitcoin, real estate, or commodities go down forever. I tend to think that at the all-time highs, people get over-exuberant. They actually get over their skis and they think that we're going up forever. The same thing happens when we get into the bottom of these markets as well. People

• 9:28Anthony Pompliano?

  start to get really, really fearful. They start throwing out all kinds of crazy numbers they think will visit. But ultimately, what ends up happening is that we bottom well before the most fearful belief. And so ultimately, what you have to do is ask yourself, "Am I a trader? Am I trying to time markets? Or I simply trying to dollar-cost average into great assets, regardless of what the financial market is?" And ultimately, what we've seen in the low-cost indexing in stocks, or in real estate, and even in Bitcoin, is usually the people that just dollar-cost average into assets, have a really long time horizon, they don't try to outsmart the market by day trading, and they simply don't care about short-term price movements. They tend to just end up performing

• 10:08Anthony Pompliano?

  better over those long-time horizons. And so ask yourself, "Who are you?" But one thing I would still suggest, regardless of whether you're a long-term investor, or you're a day trader, paying attention to these metrics is important. The on-chain metrics tell us a whole bunch of stuff about what's happening in the market. And of course, when there's fear, uncertainty, and chaos in financial markets, the more information you have, usually, the better informed you are. And that can be a really great way to calm your nerves, calm down, breathe and relax. Because ultimately, information ends up driving...

• 10:44Anthony Pompliano?

  Information ends up driving patience and patience is what a lot of people could use right now. I hope that you enjoy these overviews. This past week was a real volatile one. I'll talk to you next Saturday and hopefully we'll have better news. But until then, I hope that you guys have a great week. Thanks so much for listening to today's episode. I really hope you guys enjoyed this one. Make sure you subscribe on Apple, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player. And if you're looking to try to transition to get a new job in the Bitcoin or crypto industry, we've got you covered. Head over to pompscryptocourse.com. We've developed a curriculum with the top teams across the industry. It's a three-week intensive training program with over 50 events packed into that three-week time period. Go to pompscryptocourse.com to learn more and I'll meet you guys for the next episode.