#884 Bitcoin Is Up 30% In The Last 2 Months w/ Will Clemente

Will Clemente is the Lead Insights Analyst at Blockware. He has quickly become one of my favorite writers on all things bitcoin, including deep dives on various onchain analytics. In this conversation, we discuss the bitcoin fundamentals, on-chain metrics, what happened in the past week, and what the on-chain data is telling us to be prepared for moving forward. WIll joins us every Friday on "The Best Business Show." To see the video with the corresponding charts that Will references throughout the interview, go to the Anthony Pompliano YouTube Channel. ======================= Today’s episode is brought to you by Coinbase Wallet, your key to the world of crypto. Crypto wasn’t made to just buy, sell, and hodl. With Coinbase Wallet, you can do so much more: Collect more NFTs, earn more with DeFi, and trade more than 4,000 tokens. Whether you’re looking to play, stake, spend, or just explore a trending new protocol — Coinbase Wallet is your key to more. Long-time HODLers already know that wallets are a must-have if you want complete control of your crypto. That’s why Coinbase Wallet makes self-custody simple, while providing the safety and security of the most trusted name in crypto. Visit http://coinbase.com/wallet to learn more. ======================= If you’re a regular listener of the podcast, I would bet that two things are true: First: You’re passionate about Web3 and protecting your personal data And two: that you’re a human. If I’m right, then congratulations! You’re entitled to all the benefits of the decentralized web. But there’s a catch: As Web3-enabled tech — like NFTs, smart contracts, and DAOs — drive more elements of our “real world” lives online, proving that you’re a person – without surrendering personal data – becomes exponentially more valuable. And exponentially more difficult. This is why Unstoppable Domains launched Humanity Check. Humanity Check proves that you’re, well, you – without revealing personal data. No matter where you go on the web, you’ll have total control over which apps you want to share data with…and which ones you don’t. Prefer to be completely clouded in mystique? No worries - Humanity Check is 100% opt in. If you want to feel alive, or at least prove you are, head to http://UnstoppableDomains.com and get your NFT domain with Humanity Check. ======================= Cryptocurrencies offer boundless potential, but how will you protect your crypto? Arculus is the next generation crypto cold storage wallet that combines the world’s strongest security protocols on the Arculus Key Card with an easy-to-use Arculus Wallet App. With over 20 years of experience developing leading-edge secure payment technologies, CompoSecure created Arculus to give you the power to protect your financial future. You can buy, store, swap, send and receive your crypto with a simple tap of your Arculus Key Card to your mobile device. Your private keys are encrypted on the Arculus Key Card and they never leave it. Stay safe from hackers with no cords; no charging; no Bluetooth. The only person accessing your crypto... is you. Buy Arculus on Amazon today at https://amazon.com/arculus =======================

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:02Anthony Pompliano?

  What's up everyone, this is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. Will Clemente is the Lead Insights Analyst at Blockware. In this conversation, we talk about Bitcoin, the market structure, on-chain analytics, and where we go from here. I really enjoyed this weekly conversation with Will, as always, and I hope you do as well. Before we get into this episode, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. Today's episode is brought to you by Coinbase Wallet, your key to the world of crypto. Crypto wasn't made to just buy, sell, and hold. With Coinbase Wallet, you can do so much more. Collect more NFTs, earn more with DeFi, and trade more than 4,000 tokens. Whether you're looking

• 0:46Anthony Pompliano?

  to play, stake, spend, or just explore a trending new protocol, Coinbase Wallet is your key to more. Longtime holders already know that wallets are a must-have if you want complete control of your crypto. That's why Coinbase Wallet makes self-custody simple, while providing the safety and security of the most trusted name in crypto. Visit Coinbase.com/wallet to learn more. Again, that's Coinbase.com/wallet and learn more today. Today's episode is brought to you by Unstoppable Domains. Unstoppable Domains is the number one provider of NFT domains. These aren't traditional domains, these are domains with superpowers. With your unique NFT domains such as Pomp.Crypto or Pomp.NFT, you can replace your long, complex wallet addresses, verify ownership of your NFTs, enjoy the tens of

• 1:31Anthony Pompliano?

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• 2:14Anthony Pompliano?

  security protocols on the Arculus key card with an easy to use Arculus wallet app. With over 20 years of experience developing leading edge secure payment technologies, Compo Secure created Arculus to give you the power to protect your financial future. You can buy, store, swap, send and receive your crypto with a simple tap of your Arculus key card to your mobile device. Your private keys are encrypted on the Arculus key card and they never leave it. Stay safe from hackers with no cords, no charging, no Bluetooth. The only person accessing your crypto is you. Buy Arculus on Amazon today at amazon.com/arculus. Again, you can buy Arculus on Amazon today at amazon.com/arculus.

• 2:59Anthony Pompliano?

  All right, let's get into this episode. I hope you guys enjoy this one.

• 3:01Speaker 01

  Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only.

• 3:25Anthony Pompliano?

  We have Will Clemente joining us. Will, how are you, buddy?

• 3:28Speaker 02

  I'm good, brother. How are you?

• 3:30Anthony Pompliano?

  I'm doing fantastic. Today's an exciting day. Bitcoin hitting 45,000. I saw you tweeting up a storm, all kinds of different thoughts. How are you feeling about sentiment in, on Twitter and kind of in the market in general?

• 3:41Speaker 02

  I'm good. It's, it's, it's pretty mixed. Um, you know, I feel like some people are still kind of in disbelief, but you do have a few people in the timeline who are kind of euphoric. So, uh, seems like a, a good kind of mix here. I mean, general vibe does kind of feel like disbelief, though.

• 3:59Anthony Pompliano?

  Hey, what, uh, what bears have to remember is that you can be bearish at certain points, and you may make a little bit of money, but ultimately you're picking up pennies in front of the steamroll. This is a decades-long trend and we only going up. And so-

• 4:12Speaker 02

  Bears win the battle, bulls win the war.

• 4:14Anthony Pompliano?

  Facts, facts. As well, you should be on a plaque somewhere for saying that. That's a great, uh, great thing. All right. Talk to us about some of these charts you got. First is, you've got the, uh, this price chart. You got a whole bunch of different levels, uh, green and red that are outlined here. What is this showing us?

• 4:29Speaker 02

  Yeah, as you said, these are basically just price levels I drew out. I think the the kind of main point I wanted to just get across here was just saying that I think at this point, we're kind of right below major resistance. And so from like a short term kind of trading perspective, uh, I don't think the RR here being, you know, like giggle long is great until we clear that resistance. Um, you know, you never want to buy right below resistance. You never want to sell, you know, right before we hit major support. And so just from that perspective, um, as we're kind of pressing up against that major resistance, um, you know, if I was a short term trader and I wasn't already long, I would kind of just, you know, wait out to see what the reaction here is at this level.

• 5:12Speaker 02

  Uh, but nonetheless, again, we're approaching this, you know, major resistance level, both kind of in this consolidation pattern that we've been in as well as just, you know, horizontal price structure, uh, going back over the last year or so, uh, which is right around forty six, forty seven K. Um, that's also around the yearly open. There's a few different moving averages over there as well. Uh, but that's kind of a, you know, as I feel like we've been talking about for several weeks or whatever. Um, that's kind of a a key level that I've been watching. And then another kind of, well, I have two other ways you can look at confluence with this in addition to everything I just said. Uh, the first one is the next chart, which is short term holder cost basis. So we talked about this last week, so I don't want to like pee myself too much.

• 5:56Speaker 02

  Um, but essentially this is the aggregated cost basis of all market participants that have been in the market for less than a hundred fifty five days or less than five months. Um, and right now this kind of aggregated cost basis sits at forty six thousand two hundred. Uh, it does kind of move around a bit, you know, week to week, whenever we speak, but generally it's been hanging out around forty six to forty seven K. Uh, as of today, it's sitting at forty six thousand, uh, two hundred. And then last kind of thing that I wanted to point out for on the confluence of forty six to forty seven K being kind of an important level is the third chart. The third chart is looking at basically a heat map of all the bids and asks across different venues in particular.

• 6:41Speaker 02

  In this chart, we're looking at Biffin X. The reason we're looking at Biffin X, Biffin X has a higher hit rate than most of the other venues. If not, they have the highest hit rate, kind of backtesting, looking at all of the kind of, you know, quote unquote, walls that they set on the both bid and ask side. Generally speaking, you know, Biffin X tends to kind of be the, you know, smart money in a sense. And whenever they kind of, you know, place either buy or sell wall, that tends to have some dictation on on future price movement. And so what we see currently is that they had just actually in the last hour or so, kind of set this ask wall between forty five and forty eight K. So that's confluence as well.

• 7:22Speaker 02

  You're seeing some, some, you know, large asks step in from from Biffin X in particular. What you don't want to see is like a partial fill. So this seems kind of counterintuitive. Like what you want to see for bulls in this scenario, because we're talking about an ask wall, you want to actually see it fully get filled, see all their orders get filled. And conversely, if it was a bid wall, what bears would want to see is, you know, full fill of the bid wall. The reason is because like the market basically moves in two ways. It moves because of, you know, effort and absorption. So effort being active orders that are stepping in, right? So when you just go on, you know, whatever venue you're using to allocate to Bitcoin, you just market buy, right?

• 8:05Speaker 02

  You're buying at the the market price. It's like if you go on eBay, right? And you hit and you hit buy it now, right? You're willing to maybe pay a little bit higher of a premium just to go ahead and get the exposure and lock in your your purchase, right? And then there's limit orders and limit orders are essentially saying, and I like to use this eBay analogy, because I think it, I think it makes somewhat of sense. You know, you go on eBay, something's listed for fifty dollars, you don't want to pay fifty. $50, you say, oh, I don't deem that fair value for this item, but I'll step in and place a bid at, you know, 40 bucks. If it fills, great. You know, that's where I, I think this is, you know, worth my, you know, purchasing power. If not, then that's cool. You know, it didn't reach what I think is fair value.

• 8:49Speaker 02

  It's the same thing in the order book for Bitcoin, right? And so people come in and they set limit orders, uh, both on the bid and ask side. Uh, and so whenever you see, you know, a clump of bids or asks or, or wall, um, whenever you see that fully fill, that means that the effort in the market is, is, you know, outweighing the absorption. So in this case, if we see this ask wall get fully filled, to me, what that's indicating is that the effort or the active orders, uh, is outpacing the amount of absorption or the, the, this wall of asks that we're looking at now, or, or limit orders that we're, that we're looking at now. Um, so that's what I'd be looking at, you know, kind of the, the bear scenario

• 9:31Speaker 02

  would be these bids fill like 60, 70% and then price reverses. Because at that point, it's, it's showing you that the amount of effort in the market couldn't outpace the amount of absorption that was set out, if that makes sense. Um, but yeah, aside from everything I just said, specifically talking about the order books, across the board, looking at order books, on-chain and technical analysis, all three are showing that the kind of 46, 47 K area is an important level for BTC. Um, and so when you talk about kind of, you know, this other framework that we've been talking about is kind of, there's value buyers and momentum buyers, right? And so I think for a lot of those kind of momentum market participants or trend following strategies, a lot of those will kind of trigger if we can get above that area.

• 10:15Anthony Pompliano?

  So when you start to look at this, it's obvious that that area is really, really important, right? In the spot market, uh, I saw you tweeting this morning about the open interest just violently spiking upwards. Uh, and we've got the chart here for that as well. First, explain like when we see these massive movements up in open interest, what is that telling us is happening? And then how do you evaluate this in comparison to some of the spot stuff you were just talking about?

• 10:40Speaker 02

  Sure. So open interest is just telling you The number of contracts that are open. So that's where open interest by definition is telling you, it's telling you how much futures, you know, how much interest is there from the futures market, you know, and being active in Bitcoin. And so, you know, a lot of times like when I post this, people will automatically think that when I'm saying open interest is up, that it's bearish. It's not necessarily the case. I mean, most of the times that we spiked up into the zone in the chart has been bearish. But all it's all open interest rising is telling you is that there's a large amount of of contracts coming into the market, right? And so that could be aggressive longs or shorts.

• 11:22Speaker 02

  So with that being said, again, all this is telling you is that there's a large amount of or buildup of contracts in the system. But we need to look at other things to kind of, you know, give us hints as to the aggression of the positioning. Because there's always a long for every short. Sorry, Cody's deciding to eat my chair. There's always a long for every short. It's all about kind of gauging what's the aggression of the market participants on both sides of the contract, right? So the example that I always like to use is, for example, you know, you have one contract, you could have like a, you know, degenerate on the long side that just wants leverage long exposure. But on the short side of that, that contract, you could have a market maker who's taking the short side of the contract.

• 12:04Speaker 02

  But they might be, you know, delta hedged and by being long spot. So they're, you know, long spot and then they're they're short the the perp contract. So, you know, it's it's all about kind of gauging what's the risk profile of all the different market participants that are making up that open interest. And we can look at the two charts after this to kind of, to kind of gauge that positioning. Not only can we do that, but we can also look at in real time. Aside from kind of, you know, the the what I just said, we're going to look at the next two charts. That's kind of. Somewhat of a predictive approach as to kind of trying to gauge the open interest. The other thing we can do is look at, you know, how is the open interest behaving? And that can kind of in real time, give us more clues.

• 12:48Speaker 02

  So what do I mean by this? Like if, you know, as we talked about 46K, really important price level. If, if, if the price starts to, you know, wick above that and, you know, open interest is kind of, you know, just flat or increasing. And you don't see any kind of wipeout in open interest. Then that probably is indicating to you that a lot of that buildup hasn't been aggressive shorts. Right? And, and, um, you know, conversely, if, if we start pushing above that price level, you start to see, oh, I kind of, you know, spike down on, on, on pushes up. That's, that's showing you that, you know, shorts are getting forced to close, um, above that price level. So I would say, you know, you can look at the next two charts that we're about to look at.

• 13:30Speaker 02

  The other thing you can simply do, um, is just, you know, sit out for a second, wait, see how is open interest reacting with the price level. Uh, and then kind of, you know, gauge your, your thesis from, from there. But with that, we'll look at from a more predictive standpoint, um, two charts to kind of gauge, uh, in a, you know, predictive sense. What, what do we think that, you know, how do we think that open interest is, is positioned? So first we'll look at, um, the spot. Go ahead. My bad.

• 13:58Anthony Pompliano?

  No, I was gonna say to the spot premium, explain what's going on here with this first of the two charts.

• 14:03Speaker 02

  Yeah. So on the bottom, you'll see perpetual basis. This is comparing the aggregated spot price versus the aggregated per price. Um, and so whenever the indicator is green, so you'll see whenever it like, you know, flips negative, that's just telling you that the, you know, spot is trading at a premium to perps. And then conversely, whenever it's gray or whenever it's positive, um, that's showing you that perps are trading at a premium to spot. Or in other words, spot is trading at a discount to perps. Um, and so we've been in a pretty prolonged regime of spot premium, um, over three months now, which I'd have to go back and double check on this. But I'm like 90% confident this is one of the longest, uh, spot premium regimes that we've ever seen in Bitcoin's trading history.

• 14:46Speaker 02

  So that's that's one thing. The second thing is the chart after that, which is the annualized rolling basis, the three month basis, or in other words, you know, quarterly, which I've been calling it in the newsletter. You know, essentially, this is the difference between the current spot price and the three month futures contracts. So you can buy spot and you can sell the future, capture the difference when the market's in contango. So what I did here was I took that basis and then I adjusted it for inflation. So for CPI inflation, of course, you know, if we want to get really nuanced, I don't think CPI is the proper gauge of inflation,

• 15:26Speaker 02

  but nonetheless, adjusting for CPI inflation, the you know, three month basis is currently in backwardation. And so it's currently at like negative 2.5% or I know it's negative two point something and some change. I posted it last night, the exact decimal point, if you want to check. It's just shy of negative 3%. But this current regime of of negative basis has lasted 65 days compared to the 35 day regime that we saw during last summer. And so to me, this combined with the regime of spot premium that we've been in is showing to me overall

• 16:06Speaker 02

  that we've just kind of got this healthy kind of derivatives greed reset, if you will. And, you know, in general, you're kind of seeing a lot of that exuberance that's kind of cooled off from the from the derivatives market.

• 16:18Anthony Pompliano?

  So when you start to think about this, it feels like we're watching a lot of the, I'll call it more kind of macro data points point towards Bitcoin. We were joking earlier that everyone in the mainstream media seems like, why is Bitcoin not going up? It, you know, there are geopolitical instability, inflation. It's like, well, Bitcoin's up, you know, about 30% or so since Russia invaded Ukraine. And it just feels like the volatility sometimes masks these types of moves. But then if we start to look at the on-chain underlying metrics, and I know you've got a couple of these charts, it feels like, I think you said last week, like, there is this laying out of a scenario where once a catalyst

• 16:59Anthony Pompliano?

  happens, it will ignite based on this illiquidity in the supply. Is that kind of still how you're thinking about this?

• 17:06Speaker 02

  Yeah, exactly. Um, you know, the way Lynn Alden's put it is basically, you know, we've got the fuel laid out, but we need spark, right? And, and so the, the two charts that we're about to look at are kind of visualizing that. Uh, the first one is the long-term holder accumulation ratio. This is created by, uh, Checkmate, who's the lead analyst at Glassnode, as well as David Pwell from, um, Ark Invest. Um, we had David on the, the podcast this week, so I'm looking forward to, to that episode, uh, dropping. But this, this metric essentially compares the, um, rate of growth in long-term holder supply to the rate of increase in Bitcoin supply issuance. Uh, and so whenever this, you know, whenever this metric is, is significantly trending down, whenever it's below zero,

• 17:52Speaker 02

  uh, it's showing you that the amount of long-term holder accumulation is outpacing Bitcoin's supply issuance. So in other words, it's got this deflationary aspect to it because more supply is getting locked up than is coming into, into circulation. Uh, and so currently by that measure, uh, Bitcoin's supply, based off of this specific measure, is currently at the most deflationary, um, level that it's ever been in, in its trading history. So in other words, it's showing you the long-term holders are locking up a supply at a pace that's, you know, outpacing, uh, Bitcoin's issuance to an extent that's never occurred before in the Bitcoin market.

• 18:30Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah, it, it's, uh, it's incredible to see this, man. It feels like we're just seeing this all play out all over again from, uh, the summer of 2021. When we look at the illiquid supply shock, uh, we can literally see, uh, that that is what was happening. Uh, talk through this a little bit.

• 18:45Speaker 02

  Yeah, so, uh, very similar summer, except this divergence is, uh, now I double-checked after we talked about it last week. Uh, it's now, you know, confirmed it's the largest, uh, divergence that we've seen, um, from this specific measure, uh, in Bitcoin's history. Uh, this is the specific metric I created, uh, back, um, at the beginning of last summer and like May or June of last summer. It's comparing the amount of supply held by illiquid entities who are entities who sell less than 25% of the coins they take in to highly liquid. Liquid in liquid entities. So in other words, it's a ratio of weak to strong hands. Whenever the ratio is ticking up, that means supply is moving towards entities to sell less than 25% of the coins that they take in.

• 19:29Speaker 02

  At the same time, this also adjusts for the increasing amount of supply. So one of the questions that I would often get about a liquid supply before I created the ratio was, well, you know, isn't this naturally going to go up as you know, supply comes into circulation? But this metric actually adjusts for that because it's telling you the relative amount compared to highly liquid in liquid supply. So it's telling you at all times, no matter how much supply there is, what's the relative holdings between those two cohorts? And so as you just mentioned, seeing this tick up over the last two weeks is obviously a good sign. But in general, we've just seen this massive divergence over the last two months, two, three months, really, of supply continually.

• 20:10Speaker 02

  You're getting locked up by these entities who have a low historical tendency to sell. Conversely, to, you know, what people will often like refute about like exchange balances dropping, right? The argument there is always, well, you know, exchange balances are going down, but people can just move the coins right back to exchanges in, in, you know, 10 minutes. And technically, yes, that's true, but with illiquid supply, it's literally telling you the historical tendency for every on-chain entity to sell their coins. It looks at, you know, based off of heuristics on my wallet, you know, what, how, what, what's the amount of, you know, BTC that I'm taking in and selling?

• 20:49Speaker 02

  And so, you know, by definition, you know, aside from like what that argument is about, about exchange balances. This is literally telling you the likelihood of those coins coming back onto the market, right? And so in confluence with long-term holder supply, this again is showing you just that supply is getting locked up. And I also think it's really interesting to note kind of the difference between now and late 2018. In 2018, I mean, a liquid supply dropping pretty much marked the 2017 top and continued to decline all the way through into the bottom of the bear market. And so, you know, that's, that's another kind of, you know, difference between, between now and then, and kind of the underlying supply dynamics from, from a non-chain perspective.

• 21:33Anthony Pompliano?

  What about whales? What are they doing?

• 21:36Speaker 02

  Yeah, so the next chart, we're looking at the, essentially what I did was I took all the, you know, large whale balances, quote unquote, it's all the entities who have over a thousand BTC. And then I filtered out all kind of the known on-chain entities that Glassnode and specific heuristics track. So, you know, GBTC, the Purpose ETF, QBTC, all the OTC desks that Glassnode tracks. Some of these different entities that they, you know, have heuristics on and, you know, have actually labeled. And so then, you know, you filter that out and you get what I, you know, call quote unquote filtered whale balances.

• 22:16Speaker 02

  And that's that green line. You could see whales bought, you know, all the way into, you know, the beginning of 2021. A lot of that was, you know, the GBTC arbitrage as well as the cash and carry trade that drew a lot of capital into spot. You saw whales holdings rise really substantially and then they distributed into that whole kind of, you know, topping period from end of, you know, February into the beginning of May. They started reaccumulating at the bottom of the summer. We talked about that here on the show. I remember that initial pop there at the end of July like it was yesterday. And then they started distributing into the end of the year last year. Over the last like month or so, you see some like interesting behavior.

• 22:55Speaker 02

  You saw them kind of buy the bottom at like 33, 34K, distributed back into this consolidation. And then over the last week or so, you've started to see their holdings tick up a bit. Curious if any of that is Doquan, but, um, you know, we've seen it, we've seen their holdings uptick a little bit over the last few days. But still, when you zoom out, I mean, we're still in a downtrend from September of last year in terms of their holdings. But conversely though, what you do see is that the smaller guys have been stacking really aggressively. And so that's that orange line in specific, I just pulled up the entities with one to 10 BTC. And, and so what you see is that, you know, their, their holdings over the last month or two have really just kind of aggressively moved up.

• 23:39Speaker 02

  Roughly offsetting some of the selling that we've seen from whales over that same time period. Um. So obviously you'll note the divergence between it seems like the smaller guys have been buying from you know, looking on chain uh and the whales have kind of been distributing over the last month or two uh which is this kind of interesting divergence. Which of course isn't ideal, right? Because um you know, generally speaking, retail doesn't outsmart large buyers. But if we look over summer, um you'll see a very similar kind of signature, right? Because the smaller guys were actually stacking through all of summer. They sold from January twenty twenty one all the way to May twenty twenty one. And then they bought from the bottom in in May twenty twenty one all the way until the end of the year.

• 24:20Speaker 02

  Um. And they actually front ran all the whales buying uh at the end of July. And so you can see that they're like kind of smack dab in the middle of the chart uh during the summer range of last year. So it's just something to to keep in mind, although ideally what we do want to see is starting to see some of those, you know, the whale balances start to tick up substantially again and kind of break us out of this downtrend in their holdings that we've been in since last September.

• 24:46Anthony Pompliano?

  All right. Now, I got one question for you, then Joe's gonna ask you some questions. Do Kwan says he gonna buy ten billion dollars worth of Bitcoin. He's got three billion in dry powder and he's starting to buy. He's buying hundred million or so a day. Uh. It seems how much of the recent, you know, I don't know, ten, twelve percent increase in price is just him buying versus other things?

• 25:07Speaker 02

  Yeah, it's an interesting question, right? Because the way he's kind of bought is he's like basically told the whole market that he's gonna buy. Um. And I tweeted like a a week or two ago. I was like, are we just gonna ignore the fact that Do Kwan's about to buy like a billion dollars plus of BTC? And then everyone's like, no, it's priced in. And of course, over the last week, it wasn't priced in. Um. But yeah, I think like the question is how much, you know, A, how much of the how much of the price increase has solely just been people front running him? Right? And, and you know, people knowing that there's just a steady, you know, bid and steady T W O P over the last week, right? And, and then the, the second question is, will he be able

• 25:47Speaker 02

  to initiate momentum in the market? And so what I mean by that is, I think Sailor, for example, at the end of 2020, I think he played a large role in kind of initiating some of that momentum, not only just because of, you know, the corporate treasury announcement, which in itself was, was, you know, you know, good for Bitcoin's narrative as kind of that whole, you know, the inflation hedge narrative that really propelled us into the end of 2020, but solely just from a supply and demand aspect, because, you know, he took a large portion of supply off the market, locked up a large portion of, of, you know, supply. And so in my opinion, that kind of initiated or helped

• 26:29Speaker 02

  initiate some of that momentum. As, you know, not only you have people front running you, but, you know, you're steadily kind of placing this bid into the market. That's, that's, you know, helping it drive higher. So I'm curious, you know, will, will his, you know, bid that, that isn't, you know, he's not finished yet. Will that be able to push us over some of these kind of momentum thresholds, trigger some of these, you know, trend following, you know, market participants, you know, momentum stuff? Will he be able to trigger that? Or will we just see as soon as he's done buying, you know, will we just come right back down? Right? Are people just saying, all right, you know, I'm just gonna step out of his way, let him finish his buys, and then we'll just, you know, continue on down. We'll see. I mean, we have, you know, the way I would approach

• 27:13Speaker 02

  that question would just be to say, set some definitive levels. We're looking at momentum to get reclaimed. We've talked about some of those things at the beginning. And then just, you know, look at this in kind of an if then format. If it reclaims, okay, then I guess he did initiate some of that momentum. If not, then no. So that's kind of the way I'm, I'm seeing it. I'm curious if we'll see that kind of follow through once he's done. Can we look at this? I just want to, for 10 seconds, I just want to show this one last chart. I think it's, I think it's interesting for people to note. Um, just real quick, it's, it's the, uh, the last one, it's, it's the US trading hours. So I think this is interesting for people to note, because When you look at throughout Bitcoin's history, you know, Asia's really dominated the market.

• 27:57Anthony Pompliano?

  Correct.

• 27:57Speaker 02

  Um, and, and you know, you saw that even into like the end of 2020 into kind of early 2021. But since, since the end of May, you know, we're talking about like the different types of buyers. We just talked about kind of the size of the buyers and that kind of thing. Talked about the kind of the spending history. When we're talking about where are the buyers coming from? It's really interesting to see US trading hours when you compare them to other, you know, trading sessions and trading hours and the price premium during those trading hours. We've seen over the last year or so, it's 10 months as of today. The US trading hours have traded at a premium and that's kind of increasingly happening. So I think that's, I just wanted to say real quick that I think that's interesting that,

• 28:39Speaker 02

  you know, you're starting to see some increasing interest in Bitcoin from the United States during US trading hours.

• 28:44Anthony Pompliano?

  It's super, super interesting and I think that this is the type of stuff that, one, kudos to you for, you know, seeing a lot of this stuff, but also two, I think this is the intellectual curiosity that people have is you can start to understand kind of how this stuff is playing out and it's ever changing, right? It's not like the stock market that's been around forever and there's not that much changing. Joe, what questions you got?

• 29:05Speaker 03

  Yeah, I was going to actually ask about that because I saw your tweet this morning and I thought that was interesting. My other question though would be around some of the stuff we've seen in the news. I feel like we've talked about this before, but I would love to just get a better understanding about how you think about some of these large corporations and entities buying Bitcoin and how you tell that from the data, right? So we've seen not necessarily buying maybe, but BlackRock, right? They've been in the news that they are very interested in serving their clients with Bitcoin. Goldman Sachs, I think you posted on Twitter, the, the front page of their website, which was very funny. But how do you think about it from an on-chain perspective? Are there specific things that you look at and you say, hey, this is what needs to change to realize that some of these big players are actually in the game now?

• 29:41Speaker 02

  Well, I think like the obvious thing would just be looking at whales balances, right? And if you start to see those, you know, large buyers, not only in their holdings, but also the number of whales stepping in. You know, that's what we saw at the end of 2020. We saw like unprecedented growth in number of whales as well as their holdings. So that would be kind of the, the biggest telltale sign. Other kind of, you know, thought experiment I've gone through with with what you just kind of described is when we have these entities coming in, are they looking to actively allocate to liquid tokens? All the, obviously Bitcoin being the main thing, but you know, whether you like other coins or not, I mean, these, these, you know, traditional finance people are interested in DeFi and all these different kinds of things.

• 30:25Speaker 02

  Um, I'm curious, will you see kind of liquid token investing or are they solely just looking to get involved with kind of infrastructure around the asset class, right? Basically, kind of the, you know, when there's a, when there's a, uh, what's it? Gold rush, you wanna, you wanna be selling shovels, right? And so like, will we see Goldman, for example, um, you know, will they just be looking to get involved with building out like OTC desks or like execution arms and infrastructure for large clients? And will they focus on that or will they actually do some kind of, you know, liquid token investing? Um, that, that's the question that I don't really have an answer to. Um, I've asked some of my buddies who are, have, you know,

• 31:05Speaker 02

  a little bit of like TradFi background, they seem to kind of lean towards, they're probably just more in interested in getting involved in the infrastructure around the asset class, but I guess, well, well, the only way to really tell us, I guess, with time, but from a non-chain perspective to like fully answer your question, um, it would just be some of that the whale stuff that I described would be kind of the obvious thing.

• 31:26Speaker 03

  You liked Goldman Sachs website?

• 31:28Speaker 02

  Yeah, I thought it was cool. Um, you know, I thought, I thought it was cool to, to see the, the space, you know, get attention. Um, didn't mention Bitcoin though, it's just, uh, kind of, you know, the whole digital asset metaverse. Uh, that's kind of what it seemed like they were, they were interested in, but you know, everybody's got to start somewhere, get them, get them down the funnel, right? So.

• 31:47Speaker 03

  I like it, I like it.

• 31:49Anthony Pompliano?

  Well, when you think about, um, what we're watching play out here, if DoKwon is successful in backing, uh, U S T with Bitcoin, do you think we could see a bunch of other stablecoins and maybe even central banks kind of follow the playbook and that just is like a? I don't know, multi-year, you know, buy a trend that they have to buy the Bitcoin in order to back their, their assets?

• 32:14Speaker 02

  Sure. So first of all, I really liked your interview with DoKwon. I took on a, I took Cody on a walk this morning. And I was listening to it, what it was like two hours ago, actually. So I like the last question you asked, which is basically like along the same premise of what you just said. And his answer was yes. And, and I, I kind of agree with him in that he's, he's basically kind of setting the playbook for, you know, other protocols and just other entities in general to back currencies with Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Although Bitcoiners, you know, don't love Luna as, you know, being another, you know, blockchain, right? At the same time, you know, I think Bitcoiners aren't, you know, fully appreciating the kind of gravity of

• 33:00Speaker 02

  in real time, we're seeing a currency, albeit maybe not the one that they would love to see. We're seeing a currency being backed with Bitcoin as, you know, the pristine collateral that it is. And so I think it personally, it's a genius move by DoKwon. And I do think that over time, you know, once, once Bitcoin's liquidity grows, you know, you can't back the US dollar with Bitcoin quite yet. But, you know, I think over time you'll, you'll see more currencies be at least partially backed by Bitcoin. Maybe over time we start to see something like a part gold, you know, part Bitcoin backing at first or, or peg, I should say, at, at first.

• 33:39Speaker 02

  And then maybe over time that pivots to solely Bitcoin. We'll see. But I do think this is kind of a, you know, an interesting,

• 33:49Speaker 02

  you know, it's kind of zero to one event in terms of, of currencies being backed with BTC. Very similar to kind of like, you know, the, the sailor immaculate conception of corporate treasury announcements. You know, I think, or, or the El Salvador, you know, nation state adoption. Like I think this is up there with, with those types of events in terms of significance for Bitcoin's adoption moving forward.

• 34:15Anthony Pompliano?

  I completely agree. I think there's a lot of reasons why people may not like it, but I actually think this is incredibly bullish. And I mean, after having talked to him like, he's a Bitcoiner, right? He understands. He gets exactly why Bitcoin is valuable, pristine collateral, etc. So it's pretty cool. Before we let you go-

• 34:33Speaker 02

  He's not competing with Bitcoin. He sees it as additive. And that's I think, you know, although I don't, like, full disclosure, I don't own any Luna, but you know, I think some of the Bitcoin people maybe should, you know, realize like, you know, they like, Doquan sees Bitcoin in the same lens they do. And, you know, he's trying to make it an additive thing because he understands the value proposition of Bitcoin as that pristine collateral in the same way that they do. So-

• 35:00Anthony Pompliano?

  Correct. Before we let you go, tell us about the podcast and the interview you got coming out.

• 35:07Speaker 02

  Oh, sure. Thanks for the plug. I'm having on Yacine Almandra and David Quell from Ark Invest this week on the pod. So it should be out tomorrow, sometime tomorrow. We talk about all things on-chain derivatives. They're doing some cool stuff. They've got a lot of research coming out, new cool stuff. And they've got a couple of metrics that they created. So we kind of ran through that, including the, the long-term holder accumulation ratio that we talked about earlier in this conversation. So should be, should be a fun one. But if you're interested, hop over on Blockware Intelligence. That's our, that's our YouTube channel. So-

• 35:46Anthony Pompliano?

  Awesome, man. All right. Well, everyone feels better when, when it's green, not red. Seems like prices going up at the most basic levels. So we'll, we'll keep watching and we'll talk again next week, but I appreciate you coming on.

• 35:58Speaker 02

  All right, brother. You guys have a good weekend. Thanks again.

• 36:01Anthony Pompliano?

  By the way, he's at 599. He's almost at 600K.

• 36:04Speaker 02

  Oh, well, it's- Getting close.

• 36:05Speaker 03

  Yeah, let's go.

• 36:06Anthony Pompliano?

  Push him over the edge there, you know, Joe? Maybe if Joe tweets once and tells everyone to go follow you. That'd be the smart thing to do. If you want some free alpha, go, go, go follow Will. All right, buddy. Sounds good. See you later.

• 36:18Speaker 03

  See you, Will.

• 36:19Speaker 02

  All right. See you, guys.

• 36:20Anthony Pompliano?

  Thanks so much for listening to today's episode. I really hope you guys enjoyed this one. Make sure you subscribe on Apple, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player. And if you're looking to try to transition to get a new job in the Bitcoin or crypto industry, we've got you covered. Head over to pompscryptocourse.com. We've developed a curriculum with the top teams across the industry. It's a three-week intensive training program with over 50 events packed into that three-week time period. Go to pompscryptocourse.com to learn more, and I'll meet you guys for the next episode.