#758 Is Bitcoin Bullish Again? w/ Will Clemente

Will ClementeWill Clemente is the Lead Insights Analyst at Blockware. He has quickly become one of my favorite writers on all things bitcoin, including deep dives on various onchain analytics. In this conversation, we discuss the bitcoin fundamentals, on-chain metrics, what happened in the past week, and what the on-chain data is telling us to be prepared for moving forward. ======================= Nasdaq-listed BTCS was the first US-public company to secure today’s top layer one protocols. Recently, BTCS launched the beta version of its digital asset analytics dashboard! From across multiple exchanges, the BTCS Data Analytics Dashboard lets you evaluate your entire portfolio’s performance with plans to add year-end reports and yield earning on your crypto through linking to staking pools. Test out the BTCS Data Analytics Dashboard today at BTCS.com. ======================= Fundrise is largest direct-to-investor real estate investment platform out there, giving you the opportunity to achieve upside of an asset class previously reserved for institutions and high net worth individuals. That’s right, Fundrise is making high-end private market real estate investing accessible to everyone via an easy-to-use, automated platform. See for yourself how over 190,000 investors have built a better portfolio with private real estate. It takes just a few minutes to get started with as little as $10. Go to Fundrise.com/Pomp today and, for a limited time, get $10 when you place your first investment. That’s Fundrise.com/Pomp ======================= Do you want a new job in the bitcoin and crypto industry? You should go apply for hundreds of open roles at http://www.pompcryptojobs.com or sign up for our training program at http://www.pompscryptocourse.com

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:02Anthony Pompliano?

  What's up everyone, this is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. Will Clemente is the Lead Insights Analyst at Blockware. In this conversation, we talk about Bitcoin, the market structure, on-chain analytics, and where we go from here. I really enjoyed this weekly conversation with Will, as always, and I hope you do as well. Before we get into this episode, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. Today's episode is sponsored by NASDAQ-listed BTCs. They're the first US public company to secure many of the top layer one protocols. This quarter BTCs just launched the beta version of a new digital asset analytics dashboard. From across multiple exchanges, the BTCs data

• 0:46Anthony Pompliano?

  analytics dashboard lets you evaluate your entire portfolio's performance with plans to enable year-end reports and yield earning on your crypto by linking to BTCs staking pools. This groundbreaking dashboard is currently in beta mode. You can test out the BTCs data analytics dashboard now by visiting BTCs.com. Again, head over to BTCs.com today to check out that brand-new data analytics dashboard. I think you'll like what you get there. BTCs.com. Next up are my friends over at Fundrise. You all know I believe that the best investors both understand and seek out extreme asymmetry, and Fundrise has a goal of helping you do

• 1:28Anthony Pompliano?

  just that. It's the largest direct-to-investor real estate investment platform out there, giving you the opportunity to achieve upside of an asset class previously reserved for institutions and high-net worth individuals. That's right, Fundrise is making high-end private market real estate investing accessible to everyone via an easy-to-use automated platform. They have over 1 million users already that know that an investment with Fundrise is capable of producing strong appreciation returns and income generation while helping to stabilize a diversified portfolio, which is now more important than ever in our inflationary environment. So you can go see for yourself how over 190,000 investors have built a better portfolio with private real estate. Takes just a few minutes.

• 2:10Anthony Pompliano?

  To get started with as little as $10, go to fundrise.com/pomp today. Fundrise.com/pomp today. And for a limited time, get $10 when you place your first investment. That's fundrise.com/pomp. Last but not least, are you looking for a job in the crypto industry? Are you trying to figure out how do you leave legacy technology or finance, but you don't feel like you understand crypto well enough? Well, boy, do I have a solution for you. I have created a brand new training program. We've been running it all year. We've done almost 10 cohorts. We've helped a lot of people get a job. It's a three-week intensive program. You come in and we do 50-plus

• 2:52Anthony Pompliano?

  events over that three-week period. There's everything from study groups, discussions, breakouts, deep dives, technical education, and also curriculum that I teach personally. If you want to get educated on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and the crypto industry, I highly suggest you go to pompscryptocourse.com. pompscryptocourse.com. You go there, we created the curriculum in hand with many of the leading companies' HR teams within the industry, and we've helped people get jobs at everyone from BlockFi, Coinbase, Gemini, Kraken, Strike, Bitcoin, Inc., and many, many others. Head over to pompscryptocourse.com, sign up today, and I'll see you in the next cohort starting in January.

• 3:34Speaker 01

  Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only.

• 3:57Anthony Pompliano?

  We got a whole bunch of stuff to talk about. Price went down, it went up, it went down, it went up, FOMC, etc. Maybe first, just talk about your reaction to interest rates not moving yesterday. I know you were pretty bullish on it being a buy the news type event, which it seems to have been.

• 4:12Speaker 02

  Yeah, you know, I just think, you know, I texted you this in the last couple of days. I just thought that... The market had been de-risking over the last couple of weeks, right? And so whenever you have some kind of note event like this, you know, generally people, the framework I'm going to talk about, people generally applied to like, buy the rumors, sell the news, right? Where you have, you know, kind of the insiders getting in first, information comes out, you know, the kind of works its way down the informational, you know, totem pole or human centipede of information. By the time it gets to the end, when the event comes, there's no new buyers because everyone's already buying in anticipation of this event. Right? And so my kind of thesis over the last few days, and you know, this kind of why I texted you is like,

• 4:55Speaker 02

  what I, what I was thinking was kind of this reverse, in the, in the sense of, you know, you're selling the rumor, buying the news, because everyone's already de-risking. And then by the time you get to the event, right, that everyone's saying is going to be bearish because they've all risked off heading into it, who are going to be the sellers left? And I think that we kind of saw that yesterday where, you know, the, the Fed was slightly more, you know, hawkish than I kind of expected them to be. But, you know, I, I think, you know, the only, the only real sellers that would have stepped in yesterday are people that, you know, had, had been expecting the Fed not to raise rates. And, and somehow that would affect their crypto, you know, thesis.

• 5:35Speaker 02

  And so, you know, yesterday I wasn't really surprised to see that kind of be this, this buy the, you know, buy the news event, if you will.

• 5:43Speaker 02

  And so, yeah, I mean, I, I wasn't, you know, all too surprised at all by the reaction that, that we got, you know, as well. You know, leading up to that, we also saw a couple of other kind of telltale signs, but just from like a fundamental perspective, you know, I think, just, you know, doing some thinking as to like, you know, sometimes you just, it's as simple as thinking like, okay, who are going to be the buyers or sellers for this event? And so conversely, like, you know, the opposite of this would have been like, you know, the, the Coinbase, you know, which was, you know, the absolute, and the Coinbase IPO, which was the absolute, you know, peak of top on April 14th. So for some of these events, you know, sometimes it's not entirely obvious. And sometimes, sometimes you'll say, okay, I know there's going to be some kind of reaction,

• 6:27Speaker 02

  but not, you know, sure exactly, you know, where it's going to break. For example, like, I think Coinbase was a better example in that case, where it wasn't so clear, but, you know, once we started to see the market break a certain direction, then, you know, you would have, you know, then become cautious. But, you know, this, during this specific event, I think it was pretty clear that, you know, just thinking about. Who were the sellers going to be left? It's really hard to, you know, think that, you know, the majority of those who are going to de-risk had already done so.

• 6:54Anthony Pompliano?

  All right. One of the things that I saw that you pulled up, we've got a couple of charts here that I think is absolutely fascinating is that even though the price has been drawing down, we've got this Purpose Bitcoin ETF. It looks like people are still putting assets into this thing. So what is this showing us?

• 7:07Speaker 02

  Right. We're just looking at the holdings of the Purpose Bitcoin ETF, which is a spot ETF in Canada. And what we've seen over the last two weeks is their holdings have actually, and by the way, you know, I haven't done the newsletter this week. So I might mess up some numbers here because I'm not reading off the, off my newsletter. But I think they've added about $240 million of BTC in the last two weeks during this drawdown, which is anything that's going to significantly move the market, right? But, um, you know, at the same time, it, you know, it's, it's just more of a, um, you know, a sign to see that there, there is still hunger from, you know, people looking to, to, you know, buy Bitcoin and, um, you know, likely, um, you know, institutional or kind of traditional investors that are going to buy through an ETF versus just, you know, take custody of their Bitcoin.

• 7:49Speaker 02

  So, um, you know, I just think that's a kind of a promising sign in terms of looking at, you know, like institutional flows, if you will. Um, you know, we, I think in total now they hold like one and a half billion dollars of BTC. And, you know, this is just something for Gary Gensler to look at and see, you know, there's definitely an appetite for, you know, a spot Bitcoin ETF.

• 8:10Anthony Pompliano?

  All right. Then when we start to look at the supply shock ratios, we've been talking about these for months and months and months and months now. Back in June and July, a lot of people will remember that you explicitly highlighted this idea of a bullish divergence. You've got it labeled on this chart here. When you look at this, is it happening again? Like, how, how do you look at this and what is this telling us?

• 8:32Speaker 02

  Totally. So, um, you know, first of all, just before we get into the specific chart, you know, the way I'm, the way I'm looking at, um, and this has kind of evolved is the way I see this is like on-chain is macro. Right? So we have that kind of giving you the underlying like broader current of the market. And then we can look at things like, you know, order books or derivatives data, which is extremely important on the shorter term timeframes. And then price action is kind of our. Confirmation of that. So with that being said, right now, we have a bullish divergence between the liquid supply shock ratio and price, which means that we're seeing supply moving to long-term investors or entities that have very low spending history, meaning they take in and

• 9:13Speaker 02

  hold at least three out of every four coins that they take in. And this is, this is very different to what we saw over May, or in May, I should say. In May, you saw this decline as we kind of had this relief bounce, if you will. And at the time, you know, if you had this metric, you definitely would have wanted to be cautious, right? Because you're seeing supply moving from entities that were previously strong hands to now becoming weak hands. So supply moving from entities who take in and hold most of their coins that are now becoming those weak-handed entities or liquid or highly liquid entities. And so there's a kind of a key difference between that and kind of the underlying structure of what's going on in the market right now. You don't have

• 9:54Speaker 02

  fundamental investors that are currently turning into weak hands. And this was also reflected in, and this is kind of a good segue to the chart I sent, it's net unreal, I'm sorry, net realized profit loss. And so on kind of a similar note, what you'll see here is that currently investors are realizing profits, I mean, sorry, realizing losses more than profits, which just means that you have supply that was previously bought overhead is now being sold, you know, at these price levels. So, you know, people that essentially bought the top are now capitulating down here versus, you know, fundamental investors that bought in, you know, a long time ago that are now deciding that this is some kind of fair value for them to sell their BTC. You have more so kind

• 10:39Speaker 02

  of capitulation from top buyers. I mean, that especially happened last week, as you can see that big, big spike down. And we've kind of been progressively making, you know, higher lows in that, meaning that the kind of the amount of realized losses is, you know, subsiding, you know, meaning that the kind of capitulation is slowing. And so that that's kind of a ties into the previous chart I looked at, meaning, and what I'm just trying to say out of all of this is that the sellers that we've had recently So initially, we had this large drawdown, right? Because we had all these over leveraged longs. And then, you know, recently, we've just had people kind of capitulating, and that's been getting absorbed by long-term investors. And we're just kind of in this range, right? For the past two weeks, we've just talked about, you know, last week, I

• 11:21Speaker 02

  said, I'm a crab market maximalist, right? We're just, you know, we're just chilling in this range. And, you know, until, until we have some kind of clear break, in my opinion, that's defined as, you know, getting above and holding 53K, or below 40K, for the bearish scenario, you know, until we break either of those kind of, you know, invalidation points, you know, I think we're still just ranging, right? And so like, it's really easy to get, you know, chopped up in these ranges, you know, I see like Twitter sentiments, like, we get to the top of the range, and everyone thinks we're going to the moon, we get to the bottom, and everyone's saying we're going to zero. This is like the same thing that happened over summer, right? Like, every time we got down to like 30K, everyone's, oh, my god, you know, 20K, you know, this is it, or we're going to zero. Every time we

• 12:05Speaker 02

  got to the top of the range, especially when that like, with that one move up to like 40K, everyone got like insanely bullish. You know, I think, I think it's really important to just have these like kind of key, you know, invalidation points that kind of say, okay, yeah, we're, you know, we've either, you know, broken to the upside or downside of the range. And to me, that's, that's 53K, which we'll get into in a second, as well as 40, 40K to the downside. I think like, you definitely don't want to lose 40K for the, for the bulls. I think, you know, that would, I, you know, I've been cautious since, since we, you know, had all the derivatives pile up, and especially after we broke below 53, because I said that was kind of like, my, my, you know, uptrend, kind of cutoff

• 12:45Speaker 02

  for Bitcoin. But, you know, definitely, you know, if we, if we broke 40, 40K, you know, be pretty bearish. But, you know, to, to say that we've gotten back out of this range, which has been kind of called between, you know, 42 and 52K, I'd be looking for a break and hold above 53, which we can talk about in a second, as to a couple of different reasons why I think that's the case.

• 13:08Anthony Pompliano?

  Okay. Now, let's talk about the future perpetual funding rate across all of the different exchanges. This is always fascinating to me, but I think you understand it way better than I do. So what is this showing us?

• 13:19Speaker 02

  Right, um, so the the perp is based on, I mean, sorry, the funding rate is based on the premium between the per price and the spot index price. Um, and so essentially, you're just looking at, you know, are are, uh, you know, perps more aggressive or, um, or or spot or spot more aggressive. Um, and so what we see is that whenever whenever we have some kind of major capitulation event or like liquidation event, we generally kind of carve out this, uh, you know, kind of regime is what I've kind of called it, it of mixed and mixed, uh, to negative funding, meaning that, you know, traders are essentially in disbelief. Um, so you saw this, um, after March 2020, we were just predominantly, uh, just straight up negative funding. Uh, another good example would be, um, September of last year, after September of last year,

• 14:04Speaker 02

  we kind of carved out this mixed regime of of, uh, funding, you know, kind of leaning negative before that big October rally that we had, which is essentially a disbelief rally, um, going off of what funding was saying, because, you know, by seeing mixed funding is, you know, just that that literally just means that, you know, traders are are uncertain, right? Uh, and then another example would be over the summer, we had mixed, uh, to leaning negative funding. Uh, and so, you know, seeing seeing funding kind of flip negative, uh, as well as just maintaining this kind of muted level, that's a good sign for the bulls. Um, you know, that's that's kind of our what what our base case has been since this, um, you know, kind of initial liquidation event, um, you know, two weeks ago, we said what we want to see for the bulls is seeing this kind of range.

• 14:47Speaker 02

  Uh, meanwhile, you know, or or consolidation, whatever you want to call it, while kind of carving out this regime of mixed to negative funding. And that's kind of what we've seen, um, you know, over the last, over the last two weeks or so, uh, we saw funding flip negative yesterday, uh, leading into the kind of, uh, you know, uh, fancy news. So, um, yeah, that that what I'm looking for funding is just to continue to just carve out this regime of mixed to negative as long as continue to range.

• 15:11Anthony Pompliano?

  All right, and then we've got the on-chain cost basis here, which I think is probably, uh, driving some of your kind of price levels, uh, that you're talking about earlier. So explain what on-chain cost basis is and then why you're so fixated on the numbers that you're talking about with 53, 40, etc.

• 15:26Speaker 02

  Right, so we're just looking at the average. Price of which investors bought in on chain. Um, for like technical traders, you know, what I would say is the way you think of this is like a VW. So volume weighted average price. Um, and so this, this price level has been really important. If we zoom out, you'll see this is served as support for the, you know, 2017 bull market. Um, once we broke below, you know, we flipped bearish and then we kind of had these failed underside retests the whole way down into the bottom of the bear in 2018. Once we got back above this, we, you know, came back off of the lows in the, in the bottom of the bear. Um, we broke below this about two weeks ago, uh, went below 53K. And what I said was until we reclaim this, I maintain, you know, kind of this cautious stance. And I still do. So, um, that sits right around 53K.

• 16:09Speaker 02

  Um, that also lines with kind of technical, this kind of tech, nice technical level, uh, as well as the $1 trillion market cap threshold. Um, and so, you know, this is, this is why I keep saying 53K, 53K. I'm sure people are like tired of hearing that. Um, you know, that, that's kind of where I'm getting that number from. So, you know, once, once we get back above that, um, I'll happily, you know, load on, load on BTC. Um, and, and just to be clear, you know, I have, I have a, you know, DCA that I'm regularly DCing into. I also have a trading portfolio. So when I'm talking about this, I'm talking about my trading portfolio. Um, you know, if we get back above 53, I'd love to just happily pile back in, but until then I kind of maintain, um, you know, caution in that sense. Uh, so I would, I would look to either buy the 53K, um, you know, break.

• 16:52Speaker 02

  Or I would look to kind of, uh, you know, buy if we retest that, that wick down, you know, below. Call it, you know, between 42 to, to 45K within validation at 40K. Um, so those are kind of the two areas that I'm kind of looking to do business, if you will. Um, you know, but, but, you know, for the bulls, you, you want to see 53K get reclaimed. But in terms of like where I would buy. Yeah, it would, it would either be, you know, reclaiming that, that level. Or, you know, looking for some kind of, uh, you know, uh, you know, buy below, below this, you know, uh, you know, if we, if we swing the wick, you know, down to, to, you know, 42, 45K. Um, and then invalidation would be at, at 40K.

• 17:32Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it. Joe, what question you got? Will, what's going on, man? Good to see you again. So my question would just be around like you personally. How do you look at the more high level macro stuff, right? So we got news yesterday that they're signaling three rate hikes for 2022. How does this impact your view from the on-chain side?

• 17:49Speaker 02

  Being like a Bitcoin analyst, I think it's definitely something you need to keep in mind. But at the same time, like, I'm not going to sit here and like pretend that I'm like this expert macro analyst, right? And so like, I think it's it's almost difficult enough already to keep up with the Bitcoin market, let alone like predict, you know, what's going to go on with macro. And so the way I kind of look at this is like, if if investor behaviors change, then you'll see that through price and on-chain data. And so those are kind of the two like true tellers because, you know, obviously like macro included in this, like there's a lot of variables, right? And so to kind of just like get, you know, the signal of all of that information, you know, in a concise way, you can look at what's the behavior of the investors on-chain.

• 18:32Speaker 02

  And, you know, the the purest version of that is just looking at what the price action is telling you. Because that's the aggregated opinion of all market participants about all information given, right? And so, yeah, I mean, I don't really, I don't really like, like, try to read too much into what's going on with the Fed. You know, I have people much smarter than me that I listen to in that regard. But yeah, I mean, in terms of like what people or what the market thinks about it, I just watch what happens, you know, with price and what happens in the on-chain data to kind of gauge what people are making of that. Because, you know, that's like literally telling you the reaction of people to all the information at hand, so.

• 19:08Anthony Pompliano?

  Yep. Got you, man. Thanks. John?

• 19:10Speaker 03

  Will, so my question, it's not funny. My question is around kind of the halving cycles and where you think we are. We so we obviously had a halving in 2020. We're going to have another one on 2024. But we went up in up in the spring, down in the summer, up in the fall. It looks like we're kind of consolidating what people consider a bull market. What are your thoughts around the halving in like the price of Bitcoin right now?

• 19:33Speaker 02

  Yeah, I don't, I mean, I think there's a correlation, but I don't really think it matters, to be honest. And the reasoning is because The halving, well, A, like the halving, the kind of the supply shock, if you will, that it has on the market is completely diminished from like the first one. So like, you know, the first halving in 2013 was pretty significant, given the issuance versus the amount of circulating supply. But at this point, the next halving will pretty much just, you know, be irrelevant in terms of, you know, the magnitude of it. And then second of all, the other reason I'm kind of talking about like veering from these four-year cycles is just the type of market participant that we have. You know, I think, I think these are much more sophisticated market dispense. And not to say that we won't have, you know, 50 to 80% drawdowns.

• 20:16Speaker 02

  I just, I just kind of lean away from this very clean, you know, looking, you know, four-year logarithmic kind of we cup up, you know, have a parabolic blow-off top, come back down, you know, you know, the, just traditional, whenever you look at like logarithmic regression charts for Bitcoin. And I think, I think too many people, and this is like my pinned tweet is like, too many people have been trying to, you know, project the past onto the future rather than think like, what does the future look like? And so by no means am I saying that we're going to go up forever at all. I mean, obviously like I've been actually kind of like standing away from that. But, you know, when someone talks about like, what is a super cycle, right? A, a super cycle would be, you know, kind of having these rounded tops and bottoms moving forward

• 20:59Speaker 02

  without any kind of major, you know, blow-off top. So like, my end of validation for my idea here would be if we do have a blow-off top. Like if we have a blow-off top, I would, I would very much expect that we have some kind of, you know, prolonged bear market. But until we have, you know, some kind of parabolic blow-off top, I think we'll continue to kind of see these, these rounded tops and bottoms moving forward. And that's just a reflection of the type of like market position that we have now.

• 21:24Speaker 03

  Is it fair to say the halving in 2013 wasn't almost priced in because it was so significant on the amount of Bitcoin that got cut in half? And then people are starting to realize that it is a little bit or no?

• 21:35Speaker 02

  Yeah, yeah, I mean, I I think that's the case back in two thousand and thirteen. Um, but by now, you know, I I if anything, it's just like a a psychological thing of people say like, oh, yeah, well, whenever this happens, this happens, right? Rather than like the the amount of supply getting cut in half actually having like a material effect on, you know, the supply and dynamics in the market. Um, with that being said, though, I don't think that means that, you know, as soon as the having happens, people say like, oh, well, every time there's a having, price goes up. You know, if if if you think that's the case, then it just gets front ran, right? Like, you know, the type of investors we have now in the market are really smart. So, you know, they're just gonna say, oh, well, if this happens every time that there's a having, then we'll just front run that.

• 22:16Speaker 02

  So, you know, I I don't really, I'm not like paying too much attention to the the having moving forward. Um, you know, I I just think we're kind of um, I'm not saying like, oh, this time is different per se. I just think like we have a different type of market participant and and so the market structure is gonna change. And it it won't just be a repetitive, you know, four year cycle. I think I just think kind of that's like intellectually lazy. And I think like that's just, you know, it it'd be very nice for crypto natives because then they could just, you know, buy in the bear and then just sell off in the bull and then just chill until the next, you know, bull market. You know, I I I just don't think that's that's really gonna how that's gonna be how it goes. You know, I think also like talking to some people who are, um, you know, obviously I'm a kid. So like I'm I'm I don't talk to like a bunch of institutions, but talking to people who do.

• 22:59Speaker 02

  Um, you know, like, I I I don't think you're gonna see like capital, you know, coming into this space slow down. And also, you know, it takes time. So like over the last year or so, if you had, you know, different institutions that are looking to allocate, you know, it takes them, you know, sometimes like a a year plus or or two years plus to, you know, be able to to, you know, get to the point of making the decision that they want to start allocating to being able to actually allocate, uh, especially for some of these like public companies. Um, they're like big, you know, like bureaucratic, you know, institutions. So, you know, I I just think like over time, you're gonna see the market structure change. Uh, in my base case for what that will look like, it's just that we have these rounded tops and bottoms. And then the invalidation for that is if we do see some kind of like parabolic blow off top.

• 23:42Speaker 03

  Got you.

• 23:42Anthony Pompliano?

  Will, before we let you go. I know that you know that you're young, but you're one of the most informed, hardest working, hungriest people in this entire industry. And rather than you thinking about it from the sense of, hey, I don't talk to that many institutions, you should think about, they should have to pay me a hundred thousand dollars an hour to talk to me because I got the goods that they need. Right? That's why you ain't talking to them because they can't afford you. That's why. True. Facts. Facts.

• 24:11Speaker 02

  Thanks, man.

• 24:11Anthony Pompliano?

  All right, man. Listen, where are we on the follower count? How is that going? I think we're

• 24:17Speaker 02

  I don't know.

• 24:18Anthony Pompliano?

  We're, uh, we're, we're coming in here close. Four hundred and seventy.

• 24:22Speaker 02

  Getting close to 500, yeah.

• 24:23Anthony Pompliano?

  Woo! I told you, boys! Everyone watching this show, go follow Will. He's got twenty seven, twenty six thousand more followers to go, and we got fourteen days. Will, that's less than 2,000 a day if my public math is right. You can do this, man. Come on! Will, do you think, uh, this is kind of a random question, but do you think that most of these financial institutions, whether it's, uh, you know, hedge funds, private equity funds, you know, people that are more focused on public equities or whatever, do you think that they'll have on-chain analytics experts, like, hire them in the future?

• 24:55Speaker 02

  Yeah, like, okay, so the way I think of on-chain is like, right now, we're looking at, uh, kind of like these, these like market signals or like investment signals, right? And we're trying to like make predictions of saying like, what are the behaviors that, you know, market participants have partaken, uh, you know, previously, whenever the market's in a state of exuberance versus like this depressed state, and then looking for these kind of rough zones of saying like the mark Bitcoin is, you know, under or overvalued. And so where I think that kind of evolves over time is like, if we're all right and Bitcoin becomes, you know, the money of the world, right, and everything's valued in SaaS, and we're, you know, the, the whole world is using Bitcoin and dollars no longer

• 25:36Speaker 02

  exist, or, you know, whatever kind of extreme of that concept that you stand with, um, you know, Bitcoin as it grows will, the on-chain data will shift from being more like market-related in terms of like trying to make investment decisions, more so to like economic data, in my opinion.

• 25:53Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah.

• 25:54Speaker 02

  So like, then it'll shift to, you know, we're looking at what's going on with, you know, on-chain investors, and of course, like, all these metrics we have, like, it's still very like early innings, you know, it's like, in my opinion, it's still like the, you know, third or fourth inning in terms of like, you know, the progression of on-chain data and where it's going to get to go.

• 26:12Anthony Pompliano?

  I think we may be in the first inning. Right? Like, I still think it's super early.

• 26:17Speaker 02

  You're more bullish to me, but yeah, like, I think, yeah, I think like over time, it'll definitely transition to you're more so just going to be analyzing this economy that's built on Bitcoin, right? Versus, versus like trying to, trying to predict, you know, if, if the market's going to go up over the next couple of months or not. And so like, that's why, that's, that's why I'm really in the space is like, yes, I think now you can kind of get an edge in the market, especially pairing it with other things and not just looking solely at on-chain data. But, you know, it helps you kind of build this more balanced view of everything going on in the market. But over time, I do think like on-chain analysts will almost become the like economists of this, you know, new Bitcoin centric, you know, economy that we're in. So that's kind of like my, my mental framework for it.

• 27:02Anthony Pompliano?

  You're a legend, my friend. We appreciate you. Have fun tomorrow and we'll pick this up again, uh, next week. We'll figure out some time around Christmas.

• 27:09Speaker 02

  Thanks, man. I'll be, I'll be taking it easy in the mountains tomorrow. So.

• 27:12Anthony Pompliano?

  Enjoy. Willie Mountains. All right. See you, buddy.

• 27:16Speaker 02

  All right. Cheers, guys.