#638 Bitcoin New ATH By September?! w/ Will Clemente

Will Clemente is a Finance Major at East Carolina University. He has quickly become one of my favorite writers on all things bitcoin, including deep dives on various onchain analytics. Subscribe to Will’s new email newsletter here: https://btcbywc3.substack.com/ In this conversation, we discuss the bitcoin fundamentals, on-chain metrics, miner accumulation, all-time high in an important metric, and what Will’s guess for a bull market top is. ======================= MiamiCoin, the first CityCoin, is now live! Mining began on August 3rd, and the community has already generated over $1 million of protocol contributions reserved for the City of Miami. This is a community-launched program built on Bitcoin, and it’s far more than a currency: MiamiCoin is a protocol, and a platform for innovation. So, the CityCoins team is announcing something pretty cool: MiamiCoin Makers Month is a bringing together hackers, designers, and creators who are passionate about creating apps to benefit the City of Miami. $25k in total prizes will be awarded to developers who build the winning apps. And, the winners will be announced by Ryan Hoover, founder of Product Hunt, and Bored Elon Musk, everybody’s favorite pseudonymous Twitter inventor and blockchain enthusiast. Visit MiamiMakers.co to learn more and sign up to take part. ======================= Mask Network connects mainstream social media with the new, open, decentralized Web 3.0. Through browser extensions and mobile applications, users could get a glimpse of the decentralized application world, make borderless cryptocurrency transfers, display, and trade NFT collections, and participate in DeFi projects. Visit mask.io/pomp to start exploring. ======================= Polymarket is the world’s leading information markets platform where you can trade on the most pressing global questions and see unbiased, real-time data on what the market thinks will happen – all on the blockchain. For a limited time, sign up with referral code “Pomp” to get your first trade reimbursed up to $100. Click on the link to get started: polymarket.co/pomppod

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:02Anthony Pompliano?

  What's up everyone, this is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. Will Clemente is a finance major at East Carolina University. He has quickly become one of my favorite writers on all things Bitcoin, including deep dives on various on-chain analytics. You can subscribe to Will's new email newsletter by following him on Twitter. In this conversation, we discuss the Bitcoin fundamentals, on-chain metrics, miner accumulation, all-time high in an important metric, and what Will's guess for a bull market top is. I hope that you enjoy this conversation with Will. I really enjoy doing them every single week. Before we get into this episode, though, I want

• 0:43Anthony Pompliano?

  to quickly talk about our sponsors. First up is Stacks. Miami Coin, the first city coin, is now live. Mining began on August 3rd, and the community has already generated over a million dollars of protocol contributions reserved for the city of Miami. As mining continues, these contributions are increasing every single day. The city can claim these funds at any time, and Miami Mayor Suarez has shown strong support for the project. This is big for Miami. Remember, this is a community-launched program built on top of Bitcoin, and it's far more than a currency. Miami Coin is a protocol and a platform for innovation. So the City Coins team is announcing something pretty cool. Miami Coin Makers Month is bringing together hackers, designers, and creators who are passionate

• 1:27Anthony Pompliano?

  about creating apps to benefit the city of Miami. They've got $25,000 in total prizes that will be awarded to developers who build the winning apps. And the winners will be announced by Ryan Hoover, founder of Product Hunt, and board Elon Musk, everyone's favorite pseudonymous Twitter inventor and blockchain enthusiast. You can go to miamimakers.co to learn more and sign up to take part. Again, go to miamimakers.co to learn more and sign up to take part in this remote week. miamimakers.co

• 1:58Anthony Pompliano?

  Next up is Mask Network. They're the portal to the new internet that connects mainstream web 2.0 social media with the open decentralized web 3. Through our browser extension, users can get a glimpse to the decentralized application world. You can easily share and make borderless cryptocurrency transfers, decentralized file storage, and display and trade NFTs. You can also participate in various DeFi projects and vote on governance proposals. Do everything in a web 3 way, but on top of web 2. It's an interoperability between web 2 and web 3. Go visit them at mask.io/pomp to start exploring. Again, it's a portal to a new internet that's

• 2:38Anthony Pompliano?

  built on top of web 2, but it allows you to experience the open decentralized web 3. Go visit it at mask.io/pomp to start exploring it today. Let me know what you think. You can tweet at me about it. Last but not least is Polymarket, the world's leading information markets platform where you can trade on the most pressing global questions, all on the blockchain. You can choose from a variety of markets, like will Cardano support smart contracts by October? Will the US have more than 100,000 COVID cases before 2022? Will Trump run for president again? With over $100 million traded in its first year, Polymarket is the go-to platform to settle the biggest debates of the day. Think you know more than the market? Trade on your beliefs and earn a return if you're right. Do you want tomorrow's

• 3:23Anthony Pompliano?

  news today? Use Polymarket to see real-time data on what the market thinks will happen. No fake news, no pundits without skin in the game. So head over to polymarket.com and make an account today. For a limited time, sign up with referral code POMP to get your first trade reimbursed up to 100 bucks. That's right, if you go to polymarket.co today and you sign up using referral code POMP, they'll reimburse you your entire first trade up to 100 dollars. Go to the description and you can also click on the link at polymarket.co/pomp pod as well. Go to polymarket.co, use code POP, you get reimbursed for that first trade up to 100 bucks, no brainer. Alright, let's get into this episode with Will. I hope you guys enjoy this one.

• 4:05Speaker 01

  Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only.

• 4:28Anthony Pompliano?

  All right, everyone. We got Will here with us. Right now, we're currently looking at Bitcoin sitting around $48,000 or so. Let's start with the realized price distribution, or URPD. What are you seeing there?

• 4:40Speaker 02

  Yeah, so this is just basically on-chain volume profile. You're basically looking at like at which different price levels of a certain amount of Bitcoin was moved. And so like, we have this massive zone of volume that was formed while we went sideways for three months between 30, 40K. And that's below us. And then as well, we have a fair amount of distribution, kind of like the mid 40Ks, which we can call it like 44 to 47K that we're kind of, well, we just now broke through that. So, yeah, we have a good amount of support under us in that sense.

• 5:13Anthony Pompliano?

  All right. And then the miners, when China banned a bunch of the miners, obviously hash rate dropped significantly. But the miners that stayed on, what happened with them? They got super profitable?

• 5:24Speaker 02

  Yeah. So when we had this big drop in hash rate, we had a record difficulty adjustment that followed. And so what it meant is that the miners that were still left on the network became way more profitable, especially in North America. And so this is shown in this chart. What you see is the green line is hash per, I'm sorry, revenue per hash. And then the purple line is just the hash rate. And so what you see is this correlation between as hash went down and we had difficulty adjustment, then the miners, like we just said, on the network were more profitable. But as hash has started to slowly come back on the network over the last few weeks, that profitability is kind of fizzling out, if you will, but

• 6:04Speaker 02

  it's still way higher than it was compared to a few months ago. But yeah, hash is starting to come back online slowly, still far from, you know, where it was before the Chinese, you know, miner migration. But, you know, it's looking positive.

• 6:18Anthony Pompliano?

  And so when we look at their actual net position change, this has been positive. They've been accumulating Bitcoin, not selling it for a while now. Has that continued?

• 6:25Speaker 02

  Yeah, for sure. Um, you know, just it makes sense because they're more profitable, right? So they don't have to sell as many Bitcoins to cover their operational costs. Um, and so this is looking at the 30 day change between minor balances 30 days ago on the 20th uh, of July versus August 20th. And so what you see is that, you know, it's it's been staying in the green. And over the last, you know, call it week or so, it's actually moved up. So yes, seeing strong accumulation for miners, which, you know, as we just looked at the profitability, uh, you know, completely makes sense.

• 6:56Anthony Pompliano?

  Yep. So it's pretty much since the beginning of July, once they went from selling a bunch of Bitcoin, uh, to now holding it, accumulating it, uh, that's actually accelerated as well, which we're seeing here in the chart. Another metric that you, uh, included this week, which, uh, I don't think I actually understand is market cap to thermo cap ratio. Explain to us what is this? And then what is this chart showing us?

• 7:15Speaker 02

  Yeah, sure. This was created by, uh, Nick Carter. It's just looking at the, the market cap of Bitcoin in comparison to like the total revenue that miners have ever brought in, if that makes sense. And so like what you basically get is these over and underheated zones and obviously like the peak of the bull and the bottom of the bear in terms of like the speculative premium that's bid up on the marginal, uh, from the marginal buyer in comparison to, um, the, the, the revenue that miners are bringing in.

• 7:44Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah. So super bullish to see it kind of, uh, what appeared to be, it was going down and that trend reversed, uh, pretty significantly. And we're kind of headed back up now.

• 7:53Speaker 02

  Yeah. And then also we never really he, uh, reached like a real overheated zone, at least just, you know, compared to historical peaks. Uh, and, and yeah, so like over the last couple of weeks, this started to move back up as well.

• 8:04Anthony Pompliano?

  Yep. One of my favorite stats right now is the realized cap, uh, is at this all time high. Explain what realized cap is and then, uh, what you think, uh, kind of the ramifications of it hitting an all time higher.

• 8:16Speaker 02

  Yeah, realized cap was also created by Nick Carter. Uh, this is basically looking at, if anybody doesn't know, Nick Carter is like crazy smart. Um, realized cap is basically the, the average weighted price of Bitcoin. So it's the capitalization based off of when coins were last moved. So like, you know, if, if you bought a hundred thousand dollars of Bitcoin at a dollar, well, then you're adding a hundred thousand dollars to realized cap. If those coins have still not moved since when you bought them at a dollar, then it's still only added a hundred thousand dollars to realized cap. While, you know, in, in market cap terms, you're, you're just, um, you know, that's like four point, whatever now we're at forty eight K. So it's four point eight billion dollars. That's, uh, the chunk of, of market capitalization that those coins are contributing to.

• 8:58Speaker 02

  So it's basically like a V WAP, which is a, a volume weighted average price of Bitcoin. Um, and so like seeing that, seeing that reaching new highs is showing two things. Um, well, not to be a few things, but like A, coins are, are being, um, they're no longer being sold at a loss because like, if you, like I said, it's, it's based off of when their last move. So if their last move at sixty K and then they were moved at thirty K, well, you have thirty thousand dollars removed from the realized cap. So seeing, seeing it go up is showing that coins are moving from below and not above. Um, and so also it's showing that there's new capital inflows, um, that, that's coming in and, and they're buying at these higher prices. So, uh, it's a really good sign, basically showing like the markets absorbing, um, the profits that are being taken from below.

• 9:44Anthony Pompliano?

  So bullish. Uh, if we take the realized cap a step further, you've got David Puel's, uh, M V R V here. What is M V R V? Uh, and then what is it showing us?

• 9:54Speaker 02

  Yeah, this is a simple ratio, basically taking what we just described as the realized cap, um, a ratio of that in, in the market cap. Um, and then this is the Z score version, so it's adjusted for volatility. And it just kind of gives you like crisper signals on the, on the upside. Um, and so you, you get these very similar to the market cap to thermocap. You get these overheated, uh, zones in the, in the top of the bull market. And then also you get these like nice buy zones in the bear. Uh, we kind of briefly dipped into the overheated zone, but we didn't break above it like we did, you know, historically. Um, but yeah, we, we've started to see recovery in this as well over the last like two weeks, especially over the last week. So, so now they're really positive sign. Uh, basically like the way you can think of this is,

• 10:38Speaker 02

  When it goes up, it's basically showing that the marginal buyer is bidding the price up higher. It's at a higher premium comparison to like what the average prices that investors paid for their coins. So when this blows way up out of proportion, then it's it's the marginal price is way higher than what the actual average prices that investors bought in. So therefore, the market's overheated by definition. And then also in the bear market, like when market cap goes below realized cap, you're in capitulation by definition because the the market cap is below the average price that investors paid for their coins.

• 11:13Anthony Pompliano?

  That makes sense. You've got these three supply-related ratios that we've been tracking now for a couple of weeks. Things like the illiquid supply shock ratio, etc. Describe kind of what you're seeing in all three of those supply ratios.

• 11:25Speaker 02

  Yeah, people have been hearing me talk about this for like crazy for the last three weeks, probably sick of hearing about these things.

• 11:31Anthony Pompliano?

  But you were right. But you were right. Don't let the haters ever say that you were wrong. You were right in terms of what was going to happen in the supply shock. Keep going.

• 11:38Speaker 02

  Yes, so we've got the illiquid supply shock ratio, and that's basically looking at a qualitative view of the movement of coins from from weak hands or entities that are like moving coins in and out all day. And the movement of those coins to strong hands are basically entities that have very low selling histories. So they take a lot of coins in, don't move a lot out. And so this has been pretty much up only for the last couple of weeks. Saw another uptick in this over the last few days. So that's a really good sign. The green line is the long-term holder supply shock ratio. So very similar, but instead of looking at the spending behavior, it's just looking at the the age of the entities. So it's over 155-day threshold is the cutoff for long-term holder, short-term holder.

• 12:23Speaker 02

  And so seeing this moving up is showing that coins are moving from short-term holders to long-term holders. It's also showing that that those previously entities that were previously recognized as short-term are aging past that 155-day threshold. So showing that these entities that accumulated those coins 155 days ago are now starting to cross into that long-term threshold and are holding strong. That's all. Reflected in like hod waves, which is very similar in sense of like what's it, what it's kind of showing. Uh, hod waves is just showing like this, the percentage of supply that was last moved in a certain timeframe. So you're seeing really strong maturation of coins in that sense as well.

• 13:03Speaker 02

  Uh, so yeah, so this is a really good sign. And then the, the purple line is the exchange, uh, supply shock ratio. This is just basically looking at, um, you know, the amount of coins that are available to be bought on exchanges relative to the overall supply. Um, this is just kind of in sideways, uh, you know, so kind of sideways neutral, but, um, yeah, the, the liquid supply and, uh, the long-term holder supplier are looking really bullish.

• 13:27Anthony Pompliano?

  When we look at the long-term holder supply, we've got, uh, another chart here that shows, um, you know, through 2018 and 2019, there's these two big upward movements that led to pretty significant price increases afterwards, you know, shortly after. It appears that we're now looking at a third very large increase in the long-term holder supply. Uh, is your expectation that, you know, kind of history repeats?

• 13:48Speaker 02

  Yeah. So like, there's a couple of things to unpack here. Um, this is basically just looking at the portion of supply. So just literally the percentage of supply held by these long-term holders. Um, and so what you see is that, you know, in the bottom of the bear markets, that, uh, long-term holders come in and they start buying discounted coins. And then when they get into the bull market, they, they distribute those coins. Uh, but in, in the bear market, when long-term holders hold a certain threshold of supply, then you get this supply squeeze effect because they lock up a certain, a certain portion. Um, and, and so like it's, there's not a certain threshold, but what you see is that when, when you get this peak, um, in terms of the movement from, from the short-term to long-term holders, uh, that, that's when you get those, uh, supply shock.

• 14:32Speaker 02

  Like there's not a certain ratio necessarily that it crosses to say that it's going to initiate a supply shock. But in a general sense, the idea here is just to illustrate the fact that long-term holders set the floor, basically. Um, and as we just touched on, long-term holders are accumulating really heavily right now. And so in my opinion, they are kind of setting the floor here. Um, one of the big things to, to point out is the rate of increase. So like, when you look at, like, when people look at this, One of the things they'll say is like, oh, after 2017, you saw long-term holders also accumulating. So like, why is this bullish? But what you really need to look at here, in my opinion, is the rate of change. The rate of change here is way stronger than what it was in 2017.

• 15:15Speaker 02

  And then also the base that it was built off of is way higher. So like, if you look at the bottom of long-term holdings in 2017, you see it's almost at, aside from 2012, it was at the lowest it ever was. So it was going to take a while for those long-term holders to reaccumulate those coins and initiate another supply shock, which came in the bottom of the bear market in 2018. But yeah, like, so we have, A, a higher base for these long-term holders to build off of, and then also like a really high rate of change upwards. So yeah, it's just basically showing the same thing, just kind of in a broader sense that these long-term holders set the floor, and I suspect that's kind of what's going on.

• 15:55Anthony Pompliano?

  When we look at the illiquid supply shock ratio compared to 2017, it looks like you've identified almost the exact opposite of the end of a bull market. Explain what's going on here.

• 16:06Speaker 02

  Yeah, this is very similar. So we, you know, two metrics ago, we explained the difference between the long-term and illiquid supply. So this is the illiquid supply shock ratio over time. And what you see is like, in late 2017, this pretty much just dropped off a rock, dropped off like a rock, and then really didn't start moving back up. It kind of bottomed out in the bottom of the bear and then started moving back up after the COVID crash instantly. I mean, ironically, so what we're seeing now is this reaccumulation that we've been describing. And this, you know, when looking at 2017, it looks nothing like what we saw heading into the bear market, where this metric pretty much just dropped off a cliff. So yeah, complete opposite of what historically has marked kind of like bearish price action.

• 16:52Anthony Pompliano?

  Bullish. All right, spent output age bands.

• 16:56Speaker 02

  Yeah, this is something we've been looking at in terms of like, is this a dead cat bounce or not? Because what you don't want to see is long-term holders taking exit liquidity and then just dumping on the first opportunity they get. Um, so this is looking at all the spent outputs above six, uh, six months. Cause that's the closest threshold I could get it to the long-term holders, which is, um, five months. But looking at this, we really haven't seen anything alarming. Um, we did get some movement on Tuesday from two to three-year-old coins. Um, but that was just, seems like it was just a one-off thing. Uh, overall, the trend is, is nothing alarming. Um, also looking at, you know, dormancy and, uh, destruction, um, which is basically coin days destroyed.

• 17:39Speaker 02

  Uh, and then also the, the average spent output lifespan. These are all basically saying the same thing, just kind of looking at the age of the coins moving. Uh, and, and yeah, like not seeing anything alarming there in the sense of like, what we mentioned about long-term holders taking exit liquidity. So this is a good sign so far.

• 17:56Anthony Pompliano?

  When you look at things like, uh, the entity adjusted N U P L, the net unrealized profit loss, what are you seeing?

• 18:01Speaker 02

  Yeah, like the premise of this metric is basically when you get into like a full-blown bull market, people get really complacent and they don't want to take profits. Right? Um, and so like that basically sets up the, the market for a big capitulation. Once you finally get that move down because nobody's taking profits. So then everyone basically takes profit at once and causes a cascade. Um, and, and so you, you basically have these little zones, you have capitulation, hope and fear, optimism, anxiety, uh, belief denial, euphoria, greed. We never reached a euphoria greed zone that we have, um, historically. Uh, but we, we also interestingly bounced off the, the hope and fear threshold, uh, which is very similar to when you look back in mid 2013, what happened there?

• 18:45Speaker 02

  Um, both after the 2013 and after the 2017 bull runs, when we started moving into the bear market, we actually did dip into that hope and fear zone. Um, so yeah, like that, that, that kind of distinguishes it for me in terms of like. Is this kind of like a mid-cycle thing? Or are we perhaps just seeing like a relief valley? Um, yeah, i- it doesn't resemble it in that sense. Um, a- and we're starting to move back into that belief denial phase. So people are not realizing their profits, AKA kind of holding their coins.

• 19:16Anthony Pompliano?

  Stablecoin supply ratio?

• 19:18Speaker 02

  Yeah, this is comparing, uh, the market cap of Bitcoin, uh, relative to the overall stablecoin supply. Um, and, and so this is running like Bollinger Bands, Willie Willie did this, he ran Bollinger Bands over it. And what you see is that whenever the ratio dips below the bottom Bollinger Band, um, i- it is marked kind of like this historical, uh, bottom, basically. You know, you see late 2018, uh, March 2020, September of last year. And then just recently, a few weeks ago, we, we went below. Uh, now we're starting to, to come back inside of the Bollinger Band. So that's basically showing to me that, um, stablecoins are starting to flow back into the market. And then very similarly, we have the stablecoin exchange reserve ratio, which I created this week.

• 20:02Speaker 02

  Um, it's, it's just comparing the overall stablecoin supply relative to the amount that, that's on exchanges. Um, the only flaw here is that I need to filter it out for smart contracts. So for how, for how much, uh, the, the amount of, uh, stablecoins locked up in those smart contracts. And then also I'm going to try to figure out a way to figure out, um, how much of this is just coins that are being used as collateral? Because it's just showing during the exchange, it doesn't necessarily say that, you know, are they just sitting idle, ready to be deployed? Or are they already being locked in, you know, in, in some kind of futures contract as margin? But, um, overall though, we still do have a, a pretty large portion of the stablecoins that are, that are sitting on exchanges.

• 20:45Speaker 02

  So at least a, a portion of that can be presumed to kind of just be dry powder waiting to get in. So to me, that, that's showing that, you know, there's still capital on the sideline that, that has yet to kind of flow into the market.

• 20:57Anthony Pompliano?

  This is how you know Will's a young wizard. See, just casually dropped, yeah, I looked, I just created this new metric this week, no problem. Um, all right, let's go to SOPRA, uh, spent output profit ratio. Remind everyone what this is and, and explain what, uh, what it means that it's over one still.

• 21:10Speaker 02

  Yeah, I, Tom, I think we've looked at this metric every week since we met. Um, this is, this is looking at the profit taking of the coins. And then this is the A, the adjusted version A soper. Uh, this is basically looking at soper, but, but, uh, filtering out the, the outputs under one hour. So it kind of just gives a little more clear signal. Uh, the one threshold is basically the, kind of like the pull bear threshold, if you will. When, when the market is in kind of a, a bearish phase, it, it tends to stay below one. And in a, in a bullish phase, it stays above. Uh, and so we got that breakout above one in late July, like three weeks ago. Uh, and so what we wanted to see is twofold. So A, we wanted to see, um, a retest of one as support if we got a price correction.

• 21:54Speaker 02

  And then also kind of see the, the ratio stabilize above one. So we got, you'll, you'll see right above, uh, August 2nd on the, on the timeline on bottom. Um, you'll see we, we bounced off the, the one threshold on a price drop. And then we've kind of just stabilized above one. So to me, um, I, I, we, we had seen that balance. And then I was, I was just looking for the full confirmation with the stability above one. But I think we have that now after, after kind of going hovering above it for the last couple of weeks. So to me, I think this is like a textbook soper reversal. So this is, this is, uh, one of the more bullish things.

• 22:31Anthony Pompliano?

  One of the things you told me a couple of weeks ago was if you had to make a bear case for Bitcoin at the time, was the number of transactions or the active addresses was going down. Uh, and that wasn't good. It appears that it's coming back now.

• 22:43Speaker 02

  Yeah, um, this is like the one thing that I was kind of skeptical of. Like when you looked at transactional activity, looked at the men pool, um, everything just looked kind of dead. But we are starting to see that move back up. Uh, so when you're looking at active addresses, you're also looking at just the, the number of transactions. Uh, both of these things are, are starting to move back up, which is a positive sign of, of kind of like follow through on this rally. Uh, but of course want to see more continuation of that over the coming weeks, but so far so good.

• 23:12Anthony Pompliano?

  All right. And then lastly, derivatives is something that I think you're starting to get deeper and deeper into. What are you seeing there?

• 23:18Speaker 02

  Yeah, a few things. So the chart I threw in the newsletter this week was the futures estimated leverage ratio. This is just looking at the amount of Bitcoin on an exchange relative to the open interest. So it's trying to kind of ballpark the amount of leverage that people are using. So basically like, you know, the amount of how collateralized people are. And so looking at this, then also looking at funding, which is the mechanism that's used to peg the perpetual swap contract to spot price. That's not near what the levels it was back in, you know, February, March earlier this year at similar price levels. Yeah. So like overall, it looks pretty healthy, but you know, we'll have to, we'll have to watch over the coming weeks.

• 24:02Speaker 02

  If we start to see, you know, funding absolutely spike, then you know, we might get some kind of short-term price pullback. But I think funding is best used when you're looking at the weight that open interest has against market cap. So you can take like a very simple ratio of just market cap to open interest and see, you know, what percentage of market cap is made up of open interest. And so like when you go back earlier this year, that was way higher than where it is now. We're very similar to the estimated leverage ratio where kind of, you know, we're not really overheated in that sense at all. So yeah, derivatives for now look, look pretty healthy. And there's nothing of kind of red alarm there.

• 24:46Anthony Pompliano?

  I got two last questions for you and then we'll let you go. First is, I saw Dylan Leclerc say Bitcoin all-time high September. When do you think we hit an all-time high? Do you have a, an estimation?

• 24:59Speaker 02

  Uh, do I say something for engagement or do I try to be objective here?

• 25:04Anthony Pompliano?

  You pick. It's your, your answer.

• 25:08Speaker 02

  Let me see. I'm gonna say this. I'll say by the end of the year, I think seventy-five K is conservative. Whether we get new all-time highs next month, I I think it's kind of up in in the air to an extent. Uh, it could depend on like some macro factors, because, you know, macro doesn't look really great right now. So if we don't get like any of those existential threats, then I'll say, yeah, we get all-time highs next month.

• 25:35Anthony Pompliano?

  Okay, second question. Where we sit today, if you had to pick, what's the highest you could see it going? Not saying it's going there, but what's the absolute highest you could see Bitcoin going this year?

• 25:46Speaker 02

  Yeah, so I have a price model basically looking at like the historical tops. It's marked the historical top. It wasn't built by Naos, but by Will. It's marked the historical tops within like five percent. And so right now, that model's sitting right around one hundred seventy-six K. Right now, though, so there's a couple different, if I get into the math of it, I'm probably gonna bore people to sleep. But I'm looking for us to cross this this threshold of about fifty-seven, fifty-eight K. It's sloping upwards, but once we cross that, um, I'll I'll have full bull market confirmation, if you will. Even I I'm pretty, you know, strongly believe that we are in a bull market right now.

• 26:26Speaker 02

  But once we get over that, then I'll have that full confirmation, uh, which also by the time we get there, it'll probably be around all-time highs anyway. But once we get above that, I'd probably be targeting around uh ninety-two, ninety-four K, which is the next uh kind of uh threshold in that model. So right now, looking to see if we get above that. Once we get above that, we targeting around mid ninety Ks. And then if we can get above that, then, you know, we'll see where that top model is kind of sloping at. I suspect, you know, by then, it'll probably be up near two hundred K, because it's it's sloping upwards. But yeah, for now, it's around one hundred seventy-six K.

• 27:02Anthony Pompliano?

  So one hundred seventy-six to two hundred thousand, not saying it's going there, but uh it's possible.

• 27:08Speaker 02

  Yeah, you know, perhaps that'd be like the the absolute cycle top.

• 27:13Anthony Pompliano?

  All right, man. Where can we send people to follow you on Twitter and subscribe to the newsletter?

• 27:18Speaker 02

  Yeah, sure. Thanks for the plug. I'm W Clemente III on Twitter and then the newsletter is my bio. It's just BlockerIntelligence.com.

• 27:28Anthony Pompliano?

  You, uh, you came on and Bitcoin started absolutely ripping. It's at like almost 49,000 right now. Whoa, look at that live reaction. Look at the live reaction. Oh. The people love to hear the young wizard when he talks about Bitcoin.

• 27:46Anthony Pompliano?

  I, uh, it'll be very interesting. You have any, uh, any ideas to when we'll, uh, break 50,000? I feel like that's like another big kind of psychological barrier is closer to 100 and zero.

• 27:56Speaker 02

  See, I, I think 50K is probably the last logical level for bears. Because that's where we broke down from the lower low when we broke down in, you know, mid-May.

• 28:09Speaker 02

  And so if we can get back above that, I think the whole idea of a dead cat bounce from a price structure standpoint, the probabilities of that are, are going lower and lower, especially once we get above that. 50K is also just like a nice round number. So we'll probably see some resistance there. It depends though, like if, if we get there and everybody's shorting it, then odds are we'll, we'll probably break through relatively soon, right? Uh, so we'll have to look at funding once we get up there. But yeah, like if everybody's, if everybody's trying to long resistance, then yeah, we probably get a rejection there at least for the, the short term. But I think like 50K is probably the last logical level for like a macro lower high.

• 28:53Speaker 02

  And, and above that, I think it's, it's probably going to be pretty quick to that, that upper 50K, upper, you know, 60K range. But I think like 50K is like the final boss in my opinion.

• 29:04Anthony Pompliano?

  50K is the final boss. Joe and John are sitting here, eyes wide, ready to roll. They're like, hey, we'll take down that wall. And then we'll see you at a new all time high, going right through it.

• 29:14Speaker 02

  We, we all buy at the same time. We all coordinated on Twitter.

• 29:19Anthony Pompliano?

  Willie Whale, that's what I'm gonna start calling you, Will the Whale. All right, man, listen.

• 29:25Speaker 02

  I did my $50 DCA buy this morning, so.

• 29:29Anthony Pompliano?

  He pushed him up, he's pushing it up. All right, man, listen, thank you so much for doing this. Everyone appreciates when you come on. They absolutely love it. And we'll do it again next Friday. Keep up the great work. I see you absolutely just cranking out content on Twitter. So everyone make sure you go follow Will. Probably the best follow. You're followers, by the way. Let's see, what are you at this week? Last week you were, you were growing, oh man, you're at 184,000. You are absolutely exploding right now.

• 29:56Speaker 02

  Yeah, it's pretty wild, man. Like, sometimes I'll look at it and I'll have to double look and be like, do I really have that many followers?

• 30:03Anthony Pompliano?

  Real quick for Joe and John, end of year Will Clemente follower prediction?

• 30:11Speaker 03

  Hmm, it depends on the price. I'm going somewhere between, I'm bullish on the price, so I think it's gonna be somewhere between, I'll say 275.

• 30:25Anthony Pompliano?

  275, John? I'm gonna say 300 plus. I got you, Will. You guys are, you guys are haters. Will Clemente will end the year with over 500,000 followers.

• 30:34Speaker 03

  Oh shit, we.

• 30:35Anthony Pompliano?

  He's at 183, 500,000.

• 30:37Speaker 03

  He's got a.

• 30:38Anthony Pompliano?

  As long as he keeps tweeting, he keeps doing high quality work, he's gonna end up the year with over 500,000. Will, this is relying on you here, so. Will, don't let me down.

• 30:45Speaker 03

  I changed my number.

• 30:50Speaker 02

  I got you, brother.

• 30:52Anthony Pompliano?

  All right, we'll see. All right, we'll see you next Friday. Thanks for doing it, man.

• 30:54Speaker 03

  Thanks, Will.

• 30:55Speaker 02

  No problem. Take it easy, guys.

• 30:56Anthony Pompliano?

  Later.