#620 The Bitcoin Supply Squeeze Thesis With Will Clemente

Will Clemente is a Finance Major at East Carolina University. He has quickly become one of my favorite writers on all things bitcoin, including deep dives on various onchain analytics. Subscribe to Will’s new email newsletter here: https://btcbywc3.substack.com/ In this conversation, we discuss whales buying, new holders selling, miner accumulation, strong onchain buy signals, and the convergence of fundamentals and price. ======================= Gemini is a leading regulated cryptocurrency exchange, wallet, and custodian that makes it simple and secure to buy bitcoin, ether, and over 30 other cryptocurrencies. Offering industry-leading security, insurance and uptime, Gemini is the go-to trusted platform for beginner and sophisticated investors alike. Open a free account in under 3 minutes at gemini.com/pomp and get $20 of bitcoin after you trade $100 or more within 30 days. ======================= LMAX Digital - the market-leading solution for institutional crypto trading & custodial services - offers clients a regulated, transparent and secure trading environment, together with the deepest pool of crypto liquidity. LMAX Digital is also a primary price discovery venue, streaming real-time market data to the industry’s leading analytics platforms. LMAX Digital - secure, liquid, trusted. Learn more at LMAXdigital.com/pomp ======================= Public Rec is on a mission to make comfort look good. Their fan-favorite Flex Short is the ultimate crossover short you’ll need all summer long. From the beach to the gym, this quick-drying short has you covered. Comfort starts with a better fit. Free shipping. Free returns. Visit www.publicrec.com/pomp and use POMP at checkout for 10% off!

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:02Anthony Pompliano?

  What's up everyone, this is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. Will Clemente is a finance major at East Carolina University. He has quickly become one of my favorite writers on all things Bitcoin, including deep dives on various on-chain analytics. You can subscribe to Will's new email newsletter by clicking on the link in the description. In this conversation, we discuss whales buying, new holders selling, minor accumulation, strong on-chain buy signals, and the convergence of fundamentals and price. I really enjoy these weekly conversations with Will, and I hope you do as well. Before we get into this episode, though, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. First up is Gemini. Gemini is a leading regulated cryptocurrency exchange, a wallet and a custodian

• 0:47Anthony Pompliano?

  that makes it simple and secure to buy, sell, store, and earn Bitcoin, Ether, and over 40 other cryptocurrencies. They offer an industry-leading security, insurance, and uptime. Gemini is the go-to trusted platform for beginner and sophisticated investors alike. You can open a free account in under three minutes at gemini.com/pomp and get $20 of Bitcoin after you trade $100 or more within 30 days. Again, gemini.com/pomp, and you'll get $20 of Bitcoin after you trade $100 or more within the first 30 days. I'm a big fan of Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss and what they've built with Gemini. Go check it out at gemini.com/pomp. Next up is LMAX Digital. If you're an institution, you know

• 1:28Anthony Pompliano?

  LMAX. LMAX Digital is the number one institutional crypto exchange, offering clients the deepest pool of crypto liquidity on the planet, underscored by 100% uptime track record through volatility spikes. They leverage LMAX Group's liquidity relationships and ultra-low latency technology. LMAX Digital is the market-leading solution for institutional crypto traders and custodial services. If you're a retail investor, you might not know about LMAX Digital because they only serve institutions. I've had the CEO on the podcast before. I'm a big fan of what they built. So, go check out their Central Limit Order book streaming spot Bitcoin, Ether, Litecoin, and others, and it's all paired with US dollars, euros, and yen. Institutions know LMAX Digital. They're secure.

• 2:10Anthony Pompliano?

  They're liquid and they're trusted. Learn more at elmaddigital.com/pomp. Again, elmaddigital.com/pomp. Last but not least are my friends over at Public Rec. When I moved to Miami, I needed shorts. That's right, I wear shorts everywhere. Gets hot sometimes. And I needed a pair of shorts that I could wear anywhere and not have my wife get mad at me. So, Public Rec has that. They've got the most comfortable clothes in the world and they're on a mission to make comfort look good, too. Their fan favorite, Flex Short, is the ultimate crossover short you'll need all summer long. From the beach to the gym, this quick drying short has you covered. Comfort starts with a better fit. You get free shipping and free returns with Public Rec.

• 2:50Anthony Pompliano?

  So, go visit publicrec.com/pomp and use code POMP at checkout for 10% off. Again, publicrec.com/pomp and use code POMP at checkout for 10% off. All right, let's get into this episode with Will. I hope you guys enjoy this one.

• 3:05Speaker 01

  Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only.

• 3:28Anthony Pompliano?

  Will, what's up, man? How are you?

• 3:30Speaker 02

  I'm doing well, man. I'm getting ready to head back to school here in like two weeks, so I'm excited to get out of the house.

• 3:37Anthony Pompliano?

  Let's start just with this whole idea that on-chain metrics and price had diverged. It seemed like the on-chain metrics were really strong, but price kept falling over the last few weeks. It now looks like we kind of are getting them to converge back and the on-chain metrics are being reflected in price. How do you look at that?

• 3:55Speaker 02

  Yeah, sure. So, you know, for the most part, market price follows what the underlying investor activity is doing on-chain. But we do have these kind of more rare occurrences where price is doing one thing while on-chain is doing another. And so like the most recent example of this I could think of before now was in late January. And then before that, in late September, after we had this big crash, like twenty, twenty-five percent crash before we ran on that big run up to sixty K from ten K.

• 4:30Speaker 02

  But yeah, you get these, you get these rare occurrences where price is moving against on-chain. And the way I like think this is like, the longer that that happens, when that information finally gets priced into the market, it's going to have a greater effect. And so I think the fact that you've had such a large divergence, especially over such a longer period of time, you know, several more looking at almost like two months now that this has been going on, really two, three weeks heavily. But the fact that there's such a strong divergence between the two makes me think that once that information is finally priced in, there's going to be a huge effect on price.

• 5:07Anthony Pompliano?

  So we've seen nine daily green candles. What exactly does that mean? Like, what should people take away from that?

• 5:15Speaker 02

  Yeah, sure. So just like any market, Bitcoin, you know, there's traders and traders use candles. And so for these candles, you need to have this, you know, a closing and opening for different timeframes, such as, you know, the daily, hourly, if people even look at like minute candles, right, like traders that are in there like on this really short timeframes doing all that in and out, you know, day trading stuff. But, you know, Bitcoin itself never closes. So, you know, a lot of people get upset whenever you say, oh, Bitcoin's closing. Because people are like, oh, well, Bitcoin never closes, but technically it does. For trading purposes, it does.

• 5:55Speaker 02

  And so Bitcoin closes at, I just know because I'm on Eastern time, so it's eight PM Eastern time. I think it's zero UTC. And so, yeah, so for candles, you know, you, you, you open and then you close and then there's wicks. And so the wicks are where the price went above or below the close. And so you can, you know, there's traders that literally analyze these, these candles. And so they need some kind of open and close threshold to be able to do those analyzations.

• 6:27Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it. And so you created this 365 day like stock RSI over a 30 day net change of illiquid supply. That is like an alphabet soup of things to say. Explain what this metric is and then it looks like right now it's starting to show us some pretty interesting things, especially when you compare it to what it's shown us over the past.

• 6:48Speaker 02

  Yeah, for sure. The name is definitely a mouthful. Like some of the stuff just sounds like really complex. It's really not. What this basically is, is a way to kind of track the the underlying supply shock in the market. Because in my opinion, that's, that's what drives Bitcoin up to have these big price rallies is, you know, you have this wave of supply shock and then the speculators come in and ride that wave up and, and, you know, take the reins of it and, and push it up further on the speculative premium. And so like when you go back and look at Bitcoin's history, I also threw in the newsletter we did this week, an example from the, you know, 2017, 2018, that

• 7:29Speaker 02

  timeframe. And what you see is kind of, you know, at the beginning of the bull market, you know, well, I should, I should start here. You know, in the bear market, you had a capitulation event. And then going into the bull market, you have the supply, supply shock, I like to think of it as a supply squeeze, kind of just because it sounds cooler. But that's what really propels us into that main phase of the bull market. And then on the back end of that, you see, you know, supply becomes liquid again. And so for anybody who's not familiar, basically, when I'm saying a liquid or liquid, the way you can think of this is like, the, the coins moving to like

• 8:08Speaker 02

  entities on the blockchain that have a very low or high spending behavior. So liquid and, and Glassar also has something called highly liquid, which is like a way to look at it even further, have like extremely high spending behaviors. So these coins are in and out all day. These are speculative traders, right? Then you have liquid coins, which are, you know, are in and out a fair amount. And then you have illiquid. And a liquid are the way I like to think of it as the strong hands, right? These are the people that take in a lot of coins, never really sell them. These are the long-term investors that are kind of the, the, you know, concrete foundation of, of Bitcoin. So.

• 8:46Speaker 02

  Um, you know, kind of analyzing their behavior, I think, has a lot of signal to it. And, you know, these are the, these um indications that, that you get from this metric aren't um, you know, you don't get them often, but when they do come, they, they have a, a very high reliability. Um, and so what we have now is, you know, we had this big capitulation event in the end of May. A bunch of coins became liquid um that were previously registered as strong hands. And, and so what you've had since then is just this really strong rate accumulation. Um, and so like in this broader context, uh broader context, we've actually reached um what I, what I've used for this metric as um a buy signal. Where we, we fully made the rounds from, you know, a full capitulation below this RSI and now we're back above it.

• 9:30Speaker 02

  So to me, you know, just seeing not only that, that we're in a buy signal, but um the rate of change from that sell, from that capitulation to this new, to this new buy signal has just flashed is really, is really um, you know, quite incredible. Um, going, going back into coins history, we haven't really seen anything like this aggressive per se. Like we have, you know, obviously, like I said, you know, we see these supply shocks every, you know, every bull run. Um, but, but nothing on, on um, on, in the scale of, in, in terms of momentum. Even, even looking back to last year, which was, you know, is still, still a really strong wave. But yeah, this has pretty much just been vertical accumulation since May.

• 10:10Anthony Pompliano?

  And so when you look at things like exchange balances, it looks like again, uh, people are buying Bitcoin on the exchanges and they're just taking them off almost as fast as they possibly can. Is that accurate?

• 10:22Speaker 02

  Yeah, um, so the, the exchange flows are, are something that I think a lot of people are familiar with now. Um, you know, the, the way that, the, the premise here is that, you know, when coins are being moved on to exchanges, um, they're being sold. Um, you know, when, when they're being moved off exchanges, they're going into some kind of like custodial service or, or cold storage, not, you know, to, to be held. Um, and so this is something that, you know, a lot of analysts have been following for the, for, you know, the early mid part of this bull run. Up until kind of mid-April, um, you know, you just had coins just getting ripped off of the exchanges. Um, and so. You know, in, in, in mid-April, all of a sudden, you had like, you know, between then and, and, uh, and March, I mean, I'm sorry, in, uh, May 19th, you had like 145,000 coins that came out to exchanges.

• 11:06Speaker 02

  And so, you know, that, that was obviously highly bearish because you had a lot of people moving those coins onto exchanges to be sold. So that was like kind of an indication that, you know, we were going to need this kind of prolonged, um, reaccumulation phase because a lot of coins had been sold. Um, but since then, since, since May 19th, we've kind of just been, um, grinding sideways bearish. Um, well, I shouldn't say sideways bearish, sideways down, which is actually bullish for this indicator. Because it's saying the exchange balances are going down. Um, but this week, we've got this really large downdrop. Um, a- a- anybody who was on Twitter, by the way, um, might have seen yesterday that, um, there were these huge reported outflows. And, um, I, I left that data out. This, this data is only going up to Thursday. I, I left the, I mean, only up to Wednesday. I, I left the Thursday, uh, data out.

• 11:51Speaker 02

  Just because, um, some, some of those transfers weren't internal. It just hasn't been picked up by the last notes heuristic yet. So I just, you know, wanted to just be on the safe side and just leave that data out. But, um, even, even excluding that, um, which is showing like, like a ridiculous, you know, uh, sig- signature on the chart. That's why I just left it out because, you know, there, there's no way that, that, that's true. It has to partially be internal. Um, you know, it's, it, we're still seeing really strong accumulation, um, in terms of the, uh, exchange flows as well.

• 12:20Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it. And so when you look at this exchange flow Bollinger bands, right? Basically what you're doing is you're overlaying charts on top of each other and then they're telling you, hey, based on the historical context, when this happens, it usually leads to prices going up or down and it literally flashes green or red. Uh, this Bollinger band, explain what this is and then why is it flashing green right now?

• 12:43Speaker 02

  Yeah, sure. Um, so like traditionally people use Bollinger bands just to kind of gauge, um, well, A, to track volatility and then also to see, you know, in a general sense, w- w- when, when prices are at the bottom of the bands, um, you know, prices are low. When, when prices are at the top of the bands, prices are high. And then you can kind of build like this general premise to make other like trading decisions based off of that. Um, but, you know, I, I, I- Like I said, you know, I think the the exchange balances, um, the flows have some merit to them. And I wanted to kind of figure out how I could kind of take it a step further. And so on Glassnow, you can run different technical indicators, which the Bollinger Bands are a technical indicator. Um, a- and so, you know, playing around with them, I I, you know, ran the Bollinger Bands over them.

• 13:25Speaker 02

  I find this interesting, um, somewhat of a signal where you see when when this breaks below the Bollinger Band. You know what that's showing is like there's super aggressive outflows, um, you know, that broke out of the band that it's been, you know, that's been winding in. Um, a- and so to me, you know, that that's a bullish signal because, you know, once again, you're you're seeing heavy accumulation, you're seeing heavy buying, people are moving coins off exchanges. And so like going back and looking at this chart, it's given some really good buy signals, um, you know, going back to like March 2020. Um, it's also given some some pretty solid, uh, sell signals, like, you know, uh, in September before we had that big 20, 25% crash. Um, and then also in in late May before we had the big capitulation.

• 14:07Speaker 02

  Um, a- and the way that, you know, I'm saying a sell signal is conversely to, you know, the the metric going below the Bollinger Bands. It's when it when it goes above. So, you know, that's showing really strong inflows to exchanges and that's that's, you know, presumed selling.

• 14:21Anthony Pompliano?

  So when we look at the net realized profit or loss, basically this idea of where people, uh, if they were to sell today, they would make money or lose money. Uh, talk about where we are on this because it was negative for quite a while, but now it looks like we've gone into uh, into the positive again.

• 14:37Speaker 02

  Yeah, absolutely. Um, so like a lot of the coins that had been trading in the range, um, and and this kind of goes, um, uh, you know, along with what we were saying about this whole reaccumulation phase, we're we're selling at a loss. So as people who bought at higher prices were selling at lower prices. Um, a- and so, you know, to me, that was that was just, once again, evidence of the fact that, you know, it was younger mark participants, newer mark participants, um, that were selling while you had these strong hands that were coming in and buying the coins. And we're offsetting, um, you know, the the selling from those from those weak hands. And it was just a matter of, you know, when that when that process, um, completed. But, you know, it looks like now, after trading in in, um, you know, a a long range of of, uh, you know, net losses being realized,

• 15:22Speaker 02

  we're actually starting to see net profit being realized, which is, you know, which is of course a a positive thing because, you know, uh, investors are on profit again. Um, a- and so, you know, they're they're more likely not to, um, you know, uh, capitulate, right? So. The other way to think about it is like you don't want, you know, as soon as we just start to have, you know, a bounce, you don't want to just see long-term investors that had been holding off in this range just all of a sudden start, you know, dumping their coins, you know, just looking for some kind of exit liquidity. And so to me, like, this is not alarming necessarily, but I just wanted to take it a step further. So like you had, you had $2.4 billion of realized profit on Tuesday, but I wanted to see, you know, is that coming from people that had bought lower in the range, right?

• 16:06Speaker 02

  Or is it coming from, you know, longer-term investors that were just looking for some kind of dead cat bounce and exit liquidity to, you know, move out and they, you know, they think that the market's bearish. And so of course you want to kind of follow what the smart money is doing. And so just like looking into this a step further, looking at the average age of the coins being sold, you know, that's, that's still just kind of sideways and the overall trend event is down. So, you know, it's still younger and younger coins overall being sold. Actually on Tuesday, when we had that large, you know, event of realized profits, the average age of coins actually turned it down. So to me, this is showing that, you know, it's, it's people that bought in this range. I don't know, maybe in the, in the low 30s, right? And, and so they're now kind of like pulling some chips off the table at, at the top of the range.

• 16:49Speaker 02

  Cause we still are technically in this 30, 40 K range. And then, you know, just to take it a step further, aside from just the average age of the coins, you can actually look at by, by age cohort, you know, how much selling has come from the, from those different ages. So like, you know, an hour, you can look at coins, you know, between seven and 10 years, between a year and two years, et cetera. And so looking at, you know, coins between one week and, and three months, you saw this huge spike in that as well on Wednesday. So, you know, obviously in the last three months, pretty much we've been in this range, you know, between, between the last week and three months. So to me, that, that's indicating as well that a lot of the selling on Tuesday was coming from people in the range once again.

• 17:29Anthony Pompliano?

  Sopra is something that we've talked about non-stop. Remind people what Sopra is and then what you're seeing there.

• 17:36Speaker 02

  Yeah, um, SOBR is actually like very similar to that. Uh, just like the way you you get to it is is different. Um, SOBR is the the spent output profit ratio. So it's basically looking at the profit of the coins that are trading on and on like on any given day. Um, and so what you want to see, you know, in in a bull market is that, you know, obviously coins are are going to be trading in profit and um, whenever this slightly dips below one, which, you know, below one, coins are trading at a loss on in aggregate, right? And and that one that, you know, it's just flat, it's just completely neutral. And like in a raging bull market, this is a good way to look at, you know, the second it dips below one, you know, those are really good buy opportunities in a, you know, in a raging bull market. Of course, you need to look at other things to, you know, kind of build that premise that you are in a bull market because, you know, you might

• 18:20Speaker 02

  buy when it dips below one and, you know, it's not a raging bull market and, you know, it just keeps going further down. So, uh, that that's one way that like people, I think, traditionally use SOBR in in bull markets. And then conversely, you can use it in the bear market when you know you're in a bear trend, um, you know, second that it goes above one, um, and, you know, if you you use other metrics that once again determine you are in this bearish market, um, then you can use that to, um, you know, as kind of sell signals instead of buy signals in a in a bull market. Um, but anyway, so right now we we've gone back a blow, uh, back above one. Um, and what I would like to see here is us to either A, kind of like stabilize above one or B, you know, have have some kind of price correction.

• 19:01Speaker 02

  Um, you know, today we're down like 2%. I would like to see, you know, like some kind of like 5, 10% plus correction. Um, and for us to bounce off of one. Um, and to me, that would, that would be a really good sign, uh, you know, that that we have, you know, that we're back in a bull market.

• 19:15Anthony Pompliano?

  Before I turn it over to my brothers, real quick, to ask you a couple of questions, uh, what about miners? What are they doing? Are they in profit? Are they not? Are they accumulating selling?

• 19:23Speaker 02

  Yeah, this is, um, this is interesting because, uh, you know, miners miners played a role in in the capitulation event that we had down in in late May. Um, and, you know, probably part of the reason why why we kind of chopped around in that range for a while and kind of was moving, you know, sideways bearish. Um, but, you know, for almost for almost two months now, miners have actually been accumulating. And, you know, part of that is due to, you know, we had this big drop in hash rate and you have this massive like record difficulty adjustment. And so now the miners that are still on the network are like extremely profitable. Um, and so, you know, it it, you know, it's just from, you know, first principles, it makes absolute sense why, you know, you're seeing this really strong accumulation.

• 20:01Anthony Pompliano?

  Joe, John, what questions you guys got?

• 20:03Speaker 03

  Well, what's going on, man? Big fan of your work. I only open up his email the day that you write.

• 20:10Speaker 02

  Appreciate it.

• 20:11Speaker 03

  I got you.

• 20:12Anthony Pompliano?

  I'm gonna go over there and smack that.

• 20:15Speaker 03

  That was a pretty good one. It took me like 30 minutes to think of that, so. No, so for people that don't look, don't necessarily have kind of background in financial markets, don't look at technical indicators, don't kind of look at any of these on-chain metrics, but they own Bitcoin, they see it as whether it's a store of value or just part of their long-term holdings or financial strategy. Should they be caring about on-chain metrics? Are there certain things that they should be looking at? Where do they start? Is it important, etc.?

• 20:44Speaker 02

  Yeah, absolutely. You know, I think there are some people that just don't care, right? Like, there's people that are just, "I'm gonna DCA, I don't care about any charts or anything." And those people are definitely out and spoken on Twitter. But, you know, I think on-chain can be useful to,

• 21:02Speaker 02

  you know, just kind of have some directional awareness, right? Like, maybe you're not gonna make a trading decision based off of it, but with some people, just to, you know, like to enjoy, you know, knowing kind of where we are in terms of, you know, traditional market cycles, or, you know, what's the behavior of the investors on, you know, just so they can be, you know, prepared and, you know, just aware of where, you know, kind of where we are. And so, you know, I think for just people who are gonna hodl and just, you know, they don't care about, you know, price fluctuations, I think there can still be some value for them there. In terms of like, how to go about like learning on-chain, you know, I think there's a couple of good newsletters. Of course, like, I'm gonna show my own, but Glassnode also does like an excellent newsletter.

• 21:46Speaker 02

  Willie Wu does one as well, but his is $50, well, I think it's $50 a month. But, you know, mine's free and Glassnode is also free. So for people who are just like looking to just dip their toes in the water, I think those are two really good options. And, you know, those go straight to your email as well, so, you know, that's a good way to get started. Also, you know, Glassnode, on their website, they have something called Glassnode Academy, and it's just, you know, it's completely free. It's just basically like an introduction program to kind of get, you know, a good understanding of kind of like the, you know, very entry-level metrics and things like that.

• 22:20Speaker 04

  Will, thank you for doing this. Um, I also enjoy your letter every day when you write it. I make sure to like it as well. I am curious what you like, what you use to look at on-chain metrics, what services are out there available, which ones do you like, which ones do you not like? Um, and like, is there anything people should basically be looking at or staying away from?

• 22:41Speaker 02

  Yeah, sure. Great question. Um, I, you know, I think, I think overall, um, you know, it's, it's still a very, um, niche, like little, little segment of even Bitcoin, um, the, the whole on-chain, uh, analysis community. So, you know, I, I think, I think the on-chain community does a good job of kind of policing itself where people will call each other out for bad work. Um, and so like, I, I don't think necessarily there's any, any providers that I would say to stay away from. Um, you know, I personally prefer Glassnode just because I think, I think they have some really interesting, um, data, especially around entities. I think, um, there's a lot of signal in, in their entity, uh, data that is proprietary to them. So I see merit, I see merit in them for that reason.

• 23:22Speaker 02

  Um, but you know, there, there's other really good data providers out there, including, uh, Nick Carter's CoinMetrix, which I think is, um, probably one of the more popular ones. And then also CryptoQuant, um, which is based out of, uh, South Korea. So, um, you know, there's some other small and up, up, up and coming ones like, uh, ByteTree I know of, they're, they're based out of England. And then also, uh, WhaleMap, they do some really interesting, um, unique data, you know, kind of, uh, tracking whale movements and, uh, they, they've come up with some creative metrics there. So, um, yeah, you know, it, it's still, it's still a small, um, very, very niche thing. So, yeah, I think overall, like, it, it, it does a good job of, of kind of policing itself.

• 24:00Speaker 04

  Appreciate that.

• 24:01Anthony Pompliano?

  Will, when you think about, uh, what people should do with the metrics, I know that you and I have talked about it before. Is this something that you think should just guide their overall view of kind of the macro environment of Bitcoin? Do you think it's something that they should be trading on? Do you think that, uh, it's just kind of one data point? It's the Bible of data points? How, how do you think about it?

• 24:20Speaker 02

  Yeah, um, you know, the way I think about on-chain is it's best used to find broader trends. You know, you can look at on-chain and like, you can watch like the intra-daily exchange flows and you can drive yourself absolutely crazy doing that, like, you know. I, I think the real value is following like what's going on over multi, you know, multi-week basis, multi-month basis, you know, where are we in terms of, um, you know, a broader sense and kind of gain this kind of like directional awareness and, you know, in terms of, um, you know, how, how is the kind of like underlying investor activity looking? Cause on-chain is basically like X-ray vision of the market. Um, and you can see what all different kind of entities are doing by, by age, you know, by their size, if they're exchanges, if they're, you know, retail, whatever.

• 25:06Speaker 02

  Um, and so like, I, I think that's, that's the best way to use it is as kind of like this foundational premise in a broader sense. Um, and then like if I was gonna make any trading, you know, decisions, I would, I would use it that way. But I also think, you know, it, it should be used in confluence with other things. You know, I think, um, all good traders, you know, look for confluence across, you know, multiple different kinds of indicators. So you can use things like technical analysis, you know, order flow analysis, follow liquidity, um, you know, whatever it may be, but I, I just see on-chain, even if, even if you don't, um, see it as like your primary way to analyze the market. I still think it's a very strong, um, supplemental, uh, way, way to, to analyze things and at least kind of give you this like situational awareness as to, you know, okay, yeah, we're,

• 25:51Speaker 02

  we're, you know, seeing strong accumulation, we're still not in, you know, bear ter- territory. Um, and, and so, you know, I, I think, you know, uh, we're, we're still in, in this underlying bull market, even though price action is perhaps saying another thing. Or you can maybe, you know, use it to have that foundational premise and then use the technical analysis to get more of kind of like a accurate entry, or you can use order book flow analysis to get like, you know, a more solid entry. Um, and, and so, yeah, I, I think it, it's best used with other things, right? And, and looking for confluence amongst, you know, like as many things as possible. If you get, if you get confluence amongst on-chain, technical analysis and fundamental analysis and, you know, whatever, you know, kind of like order books and stuff, you know, that, that to me is like the ultimate buy, you know?

• 26:35Speaker 02

  And, and, and this is what we have been tracking over the past month is like. You had this confluence with volatility where volatility was really tightening up. You know, it looked like volatility was was getting ready for this massive move. Um, and at the same time, we have, we have been tracking this, you know, quote unquote, supply squeeze, um, where we had more and more coins getting reaccumulated, um, you know, by, by those strong hands from, from the speculative traders. So, you know, I think there were some, there was some synergy in that, right? Where you had this, uh, this confluence across, across two different things and, and, um, you know, I think those, those are the best opportunities.

• 27:11Anthony Pompliano?

  Will, you're a legend. Where can we send people to find you on Twitter or subscribe to the email?

• 27:17Speaker 02

  Yeah, sure. Uh, thanks for having me on, pump. This is, this is really fun. And uh, it was nice to meet your brothers as well. Um, I'm on, uh, Twitter at W Clemente III. Um, and then I have a newsletter that's free, goes out every week. And then, you know, sometimes I'll send out an intra-weekly one, you know, if I, if I see something like super interesting. Um, but it's, it's WC three, I'm sorry, BTC, uh, by WC three at substack.com. Um, and it's also in my bio on my Twitter. So you could just click that.

• 27:46Anthony Pompliano?

  Pe- people, uh, people in the comments love you, which means that, uh, you're doing a great job. So keep it up. Uh, I think that you're going to end up passing, uh, Joe in Twitter followers by the end of the year, but that's just my thought process.

• 27:57Speaker 02

  What's Joe at?

• 27:58Speaker 03

  Uh, 275.

• 27:59Anthony Pompliano?

  Oh, he's, he's, you know, he said, what's Joe at?

• 28:01Speaker 03

  He's like, do I got a chance? I think you got a chance.

• 28:05Anthony Pompliano?

  Will, what are you at?

• 28:06Speaker 03

  You're killing it.

• 28:07Speaker 02

  I think I'm at, uh, like 155 or 156.

• 28:12Anthony Pompliano?

  He's at 156. So, uh, last year Joe was at zero. Will, what you, you were at what at the beginning of the year?

• 28:20Speaker 02

  Uh, God, like 2000?

• 28:24Anthony Pompliano?

  2000 to 155 in about six months. Joe, you went from what at the beginning of the year?

• 28:30Speaker 03

  Zero to 270.

• 28:31Anthony Pompliano?

  No, you didn't have zero at the beginning of the year.

• 28:32Speaker 03

  Oh, oh, I'm talking about last year. Uh, I don't know. I'd have to check. His growth is more, Will's growth is more. Will's growth is more this year. Will's a hockey stick in here right now.

• 28:40Anthony Pompliano?

  All right, we're gonna see that. That's the big, uh, that's the big competition I wanted to see. Joe on a tear, LeBron James retweeting them. He's just, but Will, man, Will's got the beast apex predator tailwinds for him.

• 28:53Speaker 03

  Bitcoin community, uh, is a little more passionate than sports, I think, sometimes.

• 28:58Anthony Pompliano?

  Hey, some would argue that Bitcoin is, uh, better than New York Yankees, but, uh, that's, all right, Will, thanks for doing this, man.

• 29:05Speaker 02

  Yeah, no problem. Thanks so much, guys. Appreciate you.

• 29:07Anthony Pompliano?

  Talk soon, buddy.