#613 Are We Setting Up For A Short Squeeze?

Will Clemente is a Finance Major at East Carolina University. He has quickly become one of my favorite writers on all things bitcoin, including deep dives on various onchain analytics. Subscribe to Will’s new email newsletter here: https://btcbywc3.substack.com/ In this conversation, we discuss RSI, perpetual funding rate, strong hand accumulation, OTC outflows, whale purchases, miner activity, and UTXO realized price distribution. ======================= Gemini is a leading regulated cryptocurrency exchange, wallet, and custodian that makes it simple and secure to buy bitcoin, ether, and over 30 other cryptocurrencies. Offering industry-leading security, insurance and uptime, Gemini is the go-to trusted platform for beginner and sophisticated investors alike. Open a free account in under 3 minutes at gemini.com/pomp and get $20 of bitcoin after you trade $100 or more within 30 days. ======================= LMAX Digital - the market-leading solution for institutional crypto trading & custodial services - offers clients a regulated, transparent and secure trading environment, together with the deepest pool of crypto liquidity. LMAX Digital is also a primary price discovery venue, streaming real-time market data to the industry’s leading analytics platforms. LMAX Digital - secure, liquid, trusted. Learn more at LMAXdigital.com/pomp ======================= Public Rec is on a mission to make comfort look good. Their fan-favorite Flex Short is the ultimate crossover short you’ll need all summer long. From the beach to the gym, this quick-drying short has you covered. Comfort starts with a better fit. Free shipping. Free returns. Visit www.publicrec.com/pomp and use POMP at checkout for 10% off!

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:02Anthony Pompliano?

  What's up everyone, this is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. Will Clemente is a finance major at East Carolina University. He's quickly become one of my favorite writers on all things Bitcoin, including deep dives on various on-chain analytics. You can subscribe to Will's new email newsletter in the link in the description. In this conversation, we discuss RSI, perpetual funding rates, strong hand accumulation, OTC outflows, whale purchases, minor activity, and UTXO, realized price distribution. I really enjoyed this conversation with Will as always, and I hope you enjoy it as well. Before we get into this episode, though, I want to quickly talk about our sponsors. First up

• 0:44Anthony Pompliano?

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• 1:25Anthony Pompliano?

  Next up is Gemini, a leading regulated cryptocurrency exchange, wallet, and custodian that makes it simple and secure to buy, sell, store, and earn Bitcoin, Ether, and over 40 other cryptocurrencies. They offer industry-leading security, insurance, and uptime. Gemini is the go-to trusted platform for beginner and sophisticated investors alike. Open a free account in under 3 minutes at Gemini.com/pomp and get $20 of Bitcoin after you trade $100 or more within 30 days. Again, you can open a free account in under 3 minutes at Gemini.com/pomp and you'll get $20 of Bitcoin after you trade your first $100 or more within the first 30 days. Gemini.com/pomp. Go check it out and let me know what you think. Last but not least are my friends over at Public Rec. That's right, Public Rec. They make the most comfortable clothes in the world. Public Rec is on a mission to make

• 2:10Anthony Pompliano?

  Comfort looked good, too. Their fan favorite Flex Short is the ultimate crossover short you'll need all summer long. When I moved to Miami, I was looking for a pair of shorts that I could wear anywhere. Wear it to the beach, wear it to the gym, and wear it out to dinner and not get yelled at by my wife. From the beach to the gym, this quick drying short has you covered. Comfort starts with a better fit. Free shipping, free returns. Visit publicrec.com/pomp and use Pomp at checkout for 10% off. Publicrec.com/pomp. Publicrec.com/pomp and use code Pomp at checkout for 10% off. All right, let's get into this episode with Will. I hope you guys enjoy this one.

• 2:48Speaker 01

  Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only.

• 3:16Anthony Pompliano?

  All right, guys. Bang, bang. I've got Will here, just him and I, back like usual. Will, what's going on, man? How are you?

• 3:25Speaker 02

  Hey, I'm doing well, Pomp. I'm excited for it to just be back like old times. I feel like it has been the two of us since forever.

• 3:31Anthony Pompliano?

  I know.

• 3:32Speaker 02

  But, you know, it's been an interesting week. I'm excited to get into it, but doing well otherwise. How about yourself?

• 3:39Anthony Pompliano?

  I think people have really enjoyed the conversations we've been having with other folks, but there's a couple of people who just miss you and I going through the data. So maybe let's just start with kind of this RSI indicator. Normally, you are not known for putting technical analysis into the newsletter, but you included RSI as kind of the first metric this week. Explain kind of what that is and why you're looking at it.

• 4:01Speaker 02

  Yeah, sure. So like for anybody who does TA, RSI is just, you know, a relatively basic indicator. It's basically kind of tracking the strength of price. And so you have this range, right? And oscillator oscillates through that range. When it gets above, it's considered overbought. When it goes below, it's considered oversold. And so when you look at this RSI on the daily timeframe, and you kind of zoom out, you can see that we've been in this kind of downward trend since kind of the beginning of January. And we're right now kind of retesting that trend line. We've tested it, and it's served as resistance eight times. At the time

• 4:41Speaker 02

  that I wrote this, we were at like $250 higher than we were. So we were actually starting to break out above. But you need, you need confirmation on the daily close to determine if you have broken out or not. So I don't know, just something to keep an eye on. You know, it looks like we're kind of coiling up some momentum in price there. And that also kind of correlates with volatility, which we've been tracking. Any kind of major, you know, indication of volatility is showing that we're ready for a big move. You can look at like longer bands, or you can also just look at like the historical volatility index, and then just kind of plot that out. And you'll see once again that we're kind of at this trend resistance line, you know,

• 5:24Speaker 02

  downward sloping trend line, where Bitcoin looks ready to break out. And, you know, the volatility doesn't necessarily mean that the move's going to be up. It just means that we're going to have a big move, right? But looking at these, you know, some of these other things, I think you can get, you know, a better indication as to where that big move is perhaps going, which I think a lot of people know where I kind of stand in that.

• 5:45Anthony Pompliano?

  And the next thing that you looked at was the perpetual funding rate. So explain what this is, and kind of what it's telling you right now.

• 5:51Speaker 02

  Yeah, sure. So the perp funding rate is unique to Bitcoin, where The the PUP is essentially, um, you know, this this futures contract that doesn't expire. You can think of it that way, and it it's a contract that's pegged to Bitcoin price. And so it's pegged to it through the funding rate. And so, uh, for the derivatives, they they have something called an index. And it's basically like a weighted average price based off of all the major exchanges. And so to to keep the contract pegged to Bitcoin price, um, the the funding rate adjusts in correlation to, um, what what the PUP is trading at in in, uh, relative to to that, uh, index.

• 6:30Speaker 02

  So when the PUP is trading at a premium to spot, it the the funding rate is positive versus when, uh, it's trading at a discount to spot, you have negative funding rates. So prolonged funding rates to that are nega- that are that are negative are bullish. Prolonged funding rates that are positive are bearish. Um, and what we've had is is prolonged funding rates since late May. A couple of days here and there positive, but overall negative. Um, a- and so the last time that we've had prolonged funding rates like this was after the March 2020 crash and kind of in that that, uh, you know, reaccumulation phase after that. You know, it's it's been pretty much completely positive throughout the, you know, whole main phase of the the bull market up until May.

• 7:13Speaker 02

  So, um, you know, it's been good to to see these negative funding rates, but especially over the last, uh, you know, 24, 48 hours as we started rally a little bit.

• 7:23Speaker 02

  Wha- what that's basically showing is that, um, you know, the the spot, the the the rally is more driven by spot than derivatives. So i- if if if the futures were at a premium, like, I would, I would be a little more short term, short term, uh, skeptical because all these traders are coming in and levers longing, um, to move up. Versus what seems like to be going on now is spot is actually leading the price up. Well, it looks like sentiment from from traders is bearish, um, which is, you know, by definition, like denial in the market, right? You you you want to see, uh, disbelief of the rally for us to be able to move up higher. It it's almost like when when we're at a top, a top is when like the biggest bears turn bullish and

• 8:05Speaker 02

  Everyone just thinks we're going straight up, so the consensus is that we're going higher. And so traders are super bullish and that kind of gives incentive for price to be pushed the other direction. We had the same thing. So like, we had a long squeeze on the way down where everyone was long. And then, you know, it didn't take as much selling pressure to, as it would have otherwise. If you didn't have this high leverage to the position for more upside to push the price down. And it's the same kind of thing here. So like, you know, when we dipped down below thirty K, people were loading on shorts. And, you know, even since we rallied out of there, it still seems like traders aren't respecting the pump, so to say.

• 8:46Speaker 02

  Which is what you want to see to kind of have this disbelief rally and slow grind up out of the bottom. So watching those funding rates pretty closely like every hour, just to see kind of how traders are reacting to the market.

• 9:01Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it. And then we've got this liquid supply ratio that you highlighted as well.

• 9:05Speaker 02

  Yeah, liquid supply has been one of my favorite charts over the last month. It's one of the charts that Willie helped me create. It's basically comparing illiquid supply to liquid and highly liquid supply. And so you're essentially capturing this movement of coins from weak hands to strong hands. And so I literally labeled the chart Bitcoins moving to strong hands. But yeah, it's the liquid supply ratio. And so what you've seen is throughout the early, throughout the kind of middle part of the bull run, I should say. You know, like late September to early to mid-April, you saw this really strong increase in this. And so that was showing a bunch of coins were getting locked up.

• 9:50Speaker 02

  You know, we had that supply shock, right? And so you can also look at exchange flows to see that as well. But when we got into mid-May, late May, you all of a sudden started to see this oscillator trend down. If I had this back then, then I probably would have been less bullish than I was at the time. Because you just started seeing a bunch of coins that were being puked out by what was previously recognized as strong hands. Since late May, you've seen this kind of slow grind up in this. But then over the last couple of weeks, a big, a big pop, big move up. And so that, to me, is indicating. Um, yeah, we, we've had slow reaccumulation, but over the last couple of weeks, that's ramped up and we're starting to see more aggressive accumulation.

• 10:31Speaker 02

  And of course, you know, that, that's been trending up while price has been slowly grinding down. So, um, you know, we've been talking about on, on the show, this, this, uh, divergence between this and price. Um, I personally haven't seen any divergence larger than this. I asked Willie if he has, and he says that he can't think of anything. Um, the only other divergence I've seen in somewhat recently that, that represents, that, um, represents is, is in late September, after we had that big drop. Um, I remember like when we, when, when we first, you know, started going into the bull run, um, we kind of had that, that move up and then that sideways part. If you look on the chart, you'll, you'll see that. Um, after that, after that dump, it was a similar kind of idea,

• 11:13Speaker 02

  but just on a, on a smaller magnitude where like a bunch of coins became liquid. And then you saw this up, like slow grind up in this, in this, uh, indicator, which was showing like those coins were getting reaccumulated, but price was continuing to trend down. So like you had the similar divergence there, but just not on, you know, such a large magnitude. So, the way I kind of see this is like, the larger the divergence, the bigger effect it's going to have on price. Um, and, and so I suspect that once we kind of, um, start to get volume back, because I think that's part of the reason why you haven't seen this, like this information priced into the market yet, is because we've been having very, very low volume. Um, but I suspect once you start to get full blown volume back and, you know,

• 11:56Speaker 02

  I think that's likely to come soon because we were talking about, you know, volatility breaking out. Um, I think once that volume comes back in, then you'll see this supply shock really start to get priced in. Because as of right now, um, when you look at the ratio and then you look at where we were earlier this year, we're at levels that we were at at about fifty to sixty K BPC.

• 12:16Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it. And when you think about this OTC outflow RSI, I think this is an indicator that you created. Is that kind of confirming exactly what you're seeing with the with the supply ratios and kind of this movement to strong hands?

• 12:30Speaker 02

  Yeah, very similar. So, you know, people talk about exchange flows. You can also look at OTC flows. And so, kind of like from a first principle standpoint, I was thinking, you know, what's the money that moves the market? It's whales, right? It's institutions, high net worth individuals. So how can you track that? And so I think one of the one of the best ways to look at this is just looking at, you know, the raw flows in and out of OTC desks, which is where, you know, these entities navigate through to make their purchases or sell. And so I kind of plotted this out with an RSI and then you can kind of gauge these really strong moves up in outflows. So if there's a really strong trend in outflows, the indicator will break out of the RSI range.

• 13:14Speaker 02

  And then you'll get what I label as a buy indicator. And then if there's a there's a lack of OTC outflows, right? If there's very low demand, then the the strength of the indicator of the oscillator will trend below the range. And then that's considered a sell because there's very low demand, right? And so this has had pretty accurate signals over the last year, but we actually just flashed the second in a row, second buy signal. But the reason why I think this one has so much weight is because it's the largest that we've seen since last July. So like if you look at this in the newsletter, or you can plot this out yourself or anybody on Glassnode, you can see that this RSI, this outflow RSI is really ripped up and even stronger than it was last July.

• 13:59Speaker 02

  But, you know, it's on par with the levels that it's at, but really aggressive move up in that. And so to me, looking at that, along with seeing whale wallets tick up, you know, you've seen them accumulate pretty heavily over the last few weeks. Those two things are kind of coinciding with each other and saying the same thing. And then below that, I just I just put out a chart of comparing the outflows to the inflows. And then you'll see that right now that the outflows are outweighing the inflows to OTC desks.

• 14:28Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah, and what's fascinating to me about the outflow to inflow is it's very clear that this is not just kind of a, you know, one day thing. This has been a trend here for a little bit since maybe like mid-July or so. Now, in the past, and I know this is just kind of you speculating versus actually being able to prove any of this, it appears that the inflow-outflow chart kind of, it rises at peaks, it kind of comes back down, it rises at peaks. What drives kind of its inability to just go parabolic, right, and kind of take off like that? Is that just a natural cyclical, you know, parts of the market? Is that that there's just only so much Bitcoin that people can buy? Any ideas there?

• 15:08Speaker 02

  Yeah, I think you see, you know, like, bigger spikes in the OTC in and outflows, both, you know, so basically like OTC volume, if you will, when you kind of get to these bigger inflection points, like, you know, when we originally dumped down in late May, you saw, you know, a big spike in those in and outflows. But, you know, as long as they're matching each other, then it neutralizes it out. So I think like when you see a strong move up and you see, you know, those outflows or inflows for that matter, for, you know, if you're trying to make a bear case, if you see those strongly, you know, outpacing the other, then I think that's a stronger signal. And then also if you're getting multiple in

• 15:49Speaker 02

  a row. So like, you know, right now, we, if you look at the chart, we've had five straight, you know, kind of coinciding spikes between in and outflows where outflows have outpaced inflows. And so to me, that makes, that gives it a more bullish signal. And you're also seeing, if you look at the two, you know, this like higher high in the in and outflows both respectively, so it's showing that there's more activity going on, right? And then if you look back in late May, you had four straight bearish spikes where inflows were outpacing the outflow. So that would, you know, obviously resemble more of a bearish signature.

• 16:31Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it. And then when you overlaid all of these various charts on top of each other, looking at the various wallet cohorts, it appears that, again, just kind of confirmation that whales are absolutely buying up Bitcoin, kind of adding, what is it, 110,000 Bitcoin to their holdings since May 19?

• 16:49Speaker 02

  Yeah, exactly. So, this is just comparing the holdings of different sized entities, like you said. I couldn't fit every one in here that would have wanted to, so I kind of just grabbed some of the vain ones. Uh, because I can only compare four charts at a time in Glassnode. Uh, but I compared what's essentially retail, uh, and then you're looking at, uh, the octopus and shrimp, um, dolphins and sharks, and then the whales. So, you know, these are retail, which is below one BTC, um, a hundred K to one K BTC, uh, ten to a hundred BTC, and then one thousand to ten K BTC. And so what you see is almost every major cohort is in accumulation. Um, you know, the retail's been stacking harder than ever.

• 17:34Speaker 02

  I don't know if going back in the chart that I've ever seen them add to their positions this heavily. They've added over thirty-seven thousand BTC since, uh, that May nineteenth capitulation event. Um, whales are accumulating, like I said, especially over the last few weeks. Um, they've now added over a hundred ten thousand, like you said, since, uh, since, uh, the May nineteenth capitulation. Um, a hundred to, uh, a thousand BTC. This is an interesting cohort, because that, this has been trending up aggressively throughout the year. Um, I suspect this kind of resembles like hedge funds or, or high net worth individuals, just given the sizing, um, and kind of coinciding spikes that you saw between this cohort's holdings and, um, the, the cash and carry, uh, you know, the, the spreads there.

• 18:18Speaker 02

  But you saw a huge increase kind of at the beginning of the year in this cohort, and then this actually kind of just like bled sideways, which has been interesting. Um, just given like how aggressively they had been adding to their holdings, and now that just seems to have completely stopped. But then again, the whales are accumulating. So, um, you know, I, it, it can get a little noisy, like trying to compare each major cohort. Like, if I was, if I was able to break it down, uh, I would, I would probably just do, like, you know, retail, everything below one, and then kind of look at the midsize holders, right? And then anything over a thousand is really a whale, in my opinion. Um, and so Willie's actually done some, um...

• 18:58Speaker 02

  Kind of his own variant of this where he's looked at, you know, uh, the exchange holdings that are, that are shown as entities between, um, you know, over, over 10,000. Cause the reason I didn't include 10 to 100,000 is some of those, some of that, some of that is, and uh, some of that is exchanges. So like, if that's going up, that's not necessarily fully bullish because it could, it could just be an exchange that's recognized as an entity with, with that amount of BTC between 10 and 100,000 as their balance going up. Right? So Willie actually filtered some of those things out and he put together a little thread on Twitter. So I would highly suggest people go check that out, but, um, you just keep that in mind. So like, for example, like the over 100,000 BTC cohort, um, you know,

• 19:41Speaker 02

  a lot of people will be like, oh, the, you know, the massive whales are dumping, the over 100,000, um, you know, entities are dumping. Like guys, these are exchanges. That, that, that's a bullish thing. The exchanges are, are their, their supplies going down. So like you, you have to, you have to look at what are, what are these cohorts and like, um, kind of factor out, out some of these things. Like in the over 100K entities, um, you know, once you, once you factor out exchanges and then you factor out grayscale, you're left with 150,000 BTC. And so by definition, there can only be one, there can only be one other entity other than exchanges and grayscale. So ju- just this concept of like,

• 20:22Speaker 02

  and I suspect that's likely some kind of like custodial service that, um, that, that last entity. But anyway, I, I just think like, you need to look at what, what are the other entities that are, that fall under those, um, kind of cohorts to be able to get the best picture and Willie kind of subtracted those out and got a more accurate signal. But, um, yeah, just for anybody that perhaps like I, I've, I've got a few comments that were saying, look at, look at the 10 to 100K BTC cohort and also the, the over 100K side. I just wanted to just clear that up.

• 20:52Anthony Pompliano?

  Yep. That makes sense. And then it seems like a lot of the selling is coming from the younger market participants, which has been a theme that we've been talking about now for a couple of weeks. But, but what are you seeing there?

• 21:01Speaker 02

  Yeah, sure. So this is something that's been trending down since January and for a while in the newsletter, I had been throwing in dormancy, which is like a variant of Coin Days Destroyed. And so the way you can think of that is, you know, coins in a wallet for one day, coin moves out of wallet, one coin day is destroyed, right? And so this is a, this is a good signal in a bull market to kind of gauge the selling of older market participants. When you have higher Coin Days Destroyed, then that's showing that, you know, older coins are being sold. We can also just show that there's really high volume. So for example, like you could have one coin that has, you know, 10 Coin Days

• 21:44Speaker 02

  that sold and that shows up as 10 Coin Days Destroyed. Or you could have 10 coins that have been sitting in a wallet for one day and you still get the same amount of Coin Days Destroyed. So I think here you need to look at something that is going to be not, not adjusted for that, for that volume, that, my bad, something that is adjusted for that volume, which is the ASO, not, not the, not the Coin Days Destroyed, because this is just literally the raw average of the age of the coins being sold. And so I think this is a better indicator as to like the, the behavior of selling from, from different cohorts by age

• 22:25Speaker 02

  when you have really low volume like this. Hope that makes sense. No, that was super wordy. So anyway, this has been trending down and something that, you know, we've been watching for a while. But it's just showing the selling is coming from majority new market participants. And, you know, we're seeing that, that aggressive accumulation from strong hands while, you know, coinciding most of the selling coming from, you know, new market participants, AKA weak hands.

• 22:50Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it. And then what about miners? It seems like the miners are kind of continuing to not sell and accumulate. Is that true?

• 22:58Speaker 02

  Yeah, absolutely. So I'm looking at this two different ways. Um, you actually could look at it three different ways, but um, in the newsletter, I put in the, the transfer volume from miners to exchanges. So this is just looking at the raw um, inflows and outflows to exchanges. And so you see, this has been in a downtrend since um, kind of mid, mid uh, February. But we had a big spike around when we had the whole China migration, um, you know, when, when miners were, were moving out of China. Um, and had to liquidate some of their Bitcoin to, to move. Um, but that, that's gone back into a downtrend after that. Um, and then another way to look at this is just the, the minor net position change. So there's the minor net balance, um, and then there's also the net position change. So the minor balance is, is good if you're trying to watch like intraday things.

• 23:44Speaker 02

  But if you're really trying to identify a trend, I think that the net position change is, is a lot more valuable because if you're seeing a clear trend on something that, that is looking at, you know, a 30 day difference of something. It's, it's uh, in my opinion, a, a much clearer um, signal of a, of a kind of broader trend rather than just like looking, you know, on every day at, oh, you know, miner balance went up today, miner balance went down a little bit tomorrow. Like that can get super noisy and just kind of like it, it, it's, it's just too much to, you know, I'd rather just look at what, what's, what's the broader trend, you know, the solidified trend that, you know, over a 30 day basis. So I think like that, that minor net position change is, is the most valuable in terms of like looking at that trend.

• 24:27Speaker 02

  But yeah, for sure, miners have been accumulating, um, you know, especially over the last two weeks.

• 24:33Anthony Pompliano?

  All right. And then UTXO, bring us home with this last one. What, what do you see in the UTXO? You love UTXO.

• 24:39Speaker 02

  Yeah, I, I love this chart because it's basically like a uh, a volume profile of Bitcoin. Um, and, and so, you know, it's, it's showing how many, you know, how many Bitcoins, how much of the supply has moved at different price levels? Um, and, and so what you see is we just have like this massive zone of volume between 30K, 40K, especially between like 30K and 35K. And so when we, when we went down below 30, we were kind of like looking over into the abyss where we really didn't have any support. Until like 26K or 22K, um, but you know, it looked like we, we, we got pushed right back up into there and, and so now we're kind of sitting back in the middle of this range.

• 25:18Speaker 02

  Uh, but one interesting thing, um, the, the 31, uh, seven, that, that level has the highest level of, uh, of, of money, of Bitcoin's money supply that's moved at, at, at that since, uh, 10,300. So you have this huge kind of base of capital here building up and, uh, uh, you know, i- if we were to have some kind of bull run continuation, I would be eyeing this level for some kind of like macro support level in the future, but, uh, yeah, this is, this is, um, you know, the, the largest zone of, of support that we've seen since, you know, like six, six K to, to 10K. So.

• 25:53Anthony Pompliano?

  All right. Just as a kind of summary, how are you feeling right now? Like in terms of what we're seeing, um, bullish, bearish, still sideways, kind of cautiously optimistic? How, how would you categorize it?

• 26:06Speaker 02

  Sure. Um, so I, I think in the short term, right? You, you, you know, we can be subject to perhaps, you know, a bunch of le- uh, leveraged traders hop in all of a sudden, decide to go leverage long and that's going to, of course, you know, incentivize price to kind of get pushed down in the short term. So, you know, it, it could get a little noisy in the next couple of days perhaps, but you know, I suspect over the next couple of weeks, we're going to start to see a move up. Um, you know, the, the accumulation trends that we've been following for over a month now, uh, I think are, are finally starting to get, uh, priced in a bit. Um, you know, it, it didn't seem like it, you know, it was going to happen for a while. Um, but yeah, I think, I think over the next few weeks, you'll, you'll start to see that, uh, kind of get reflected in, in the price, especially once volume returns.

• 26:50Speaker 02

  Um, just, and I, I'd say that just because watching volatility, um, you know, some of the charts that we had mentioned earlier, um, you know, we're, we're sitting right on this, on the breakout of, of, you know, this big move and, and, uh, you know, looking at where that, you know, if I had to, you know, guess where that was going to go based off of on-chain, you know, showing, seeing that accumulation to me is, is pointing that that move is going to be upward. So, um, you know, that, that volatility break is going to come out in the next couple of weeks. And that's why I say that. So, um, yeah, I'll be, I'll be watching closely then.

• 27:21Anthony Pompliano?

  What, uh, wha- what do you think is, uh, the most likely scenario through the end of the year?

• 27:28Speaker 02

  Yeah, it's an interesting question. Um, you know, I think it all depends on like what you see from the institutionals and you know, i- if you start to get a bunch of announcements and I don't know, like some ETF news, then it could get pretty crazy. I I I personally think that we kind of top out in in early mid 2022. Um, I've seen as as far as like the length of the cycles, the idea of like this lengthening cycle thesis, I I I kind of agree with that. Um, so I I wouldn't be surprised if if, you know, like we didn't, if we extended out to, you know, um, spring to to summer 2022, uh, for some kind of like, you know, big, um,

• 28:10Speaker 02

  you know, final move up perhaps, uh, but for now, I'm just, I'm just watching to see, you know, in the short term, if we can break the 200 day, because I think that's that's kind of like a key level that, you know, traders in general or investors in general watch. Um, to determine if an asset is kind of in a in a bull bear market, right? Um, so watching that level and then if we can break all time highs, um, you know, I I think we'll we'll see a pretty aggressive move upwards. But I think in terms of like the remainder of the year, a lot of that depends on, well, macro too, obviously, but just from like a pure internal Bitcoin standpoint, um, I think what you kind of see from the institutional adoption side. What about you? What do you think?

• 28:51Anthony Pompliano?

  I think that, uh, there's a lot of bear sentiment and Bitcoins lulling people to sleep, but, uh, I'm not sleeping. I, uh, I I remain convicted on, uh, on the long term, so good luck to everyone out there.

• 29:04Speaker 02

  Yeah, I got into Bitcoin in in summer last year and and so I remember when we were sitting at like the mid nine, uh, mid 9K. Like we're sitting at like 92 to to 9800 and we're just like chopping and chopping and chopping. And I was like, this thing never moves. Like, what is everybody talking about Bitcoins exciting and stuff like this thing is just sideways forever. And then all of a sudden, I remember boom, it broke through 10K and that was it. And a very similar thing with 20K, where, you know, we were just sideways, sideways, sideways and, you know, the high 19,000 and then I remember one day I woke up this mo- uh, woke up one morning and and we'd broken out to like 22K or something. It's like Bitcoin moves in like a very small portion of time.

• 29:49Speaker 02

  And so like being being out of them, that's why I always like I I'm always, I think, gonna have, you know, a a a large portion of of my holdings just in, you know, just in cold storage because with Bitcoin, like the real risk is one day waking up and, you know, all of a sudden prices driven up on some news or or whatever it may be. But like, you know, mo- most of the moves I I've seen some sta- statistic on it, but I don't know it off the top of my head. Most of the moves come in a very small portion of the time that Bitcoin trades, so.

• 30:19Anthony Pompliano?

  That that has always been true, and I think it's gonna be no different here. So, pretty uh, pretty nuts. Um, all right, where can we send people to follow you on Twitter or or follow the the newsletter?

• 30:31Speaker 02

  Yeah, sure. I'm on Twitter at W Clemente III, and then my newsletter is BTC by WC3.

• 30:39Anthony Pompliano?

  All right, my friend, we will, we will do this again next week, but you're doing a great job. Keep it up. I think a lot of people are counting on you to keep them informed. So, let's uh, let's talk again at the end of next week.

• 30:50Speaker 02

  Sure. Thanks a lot, Paul. Take it easy.