Everyone Is Bearish And That’s Exactly Why You Should Buy | Ryan Detrick

Ryan Detrick is the Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group and co-host of the Facts vs Feelings podcast. In this conversation, we break down why October weakness is normal, what midterm election history says about stocks, and why the rally is spreading beyond tech. We also discuss AI spending risks, the Fed, record cash on the sidelines, and where bitcoin and gold fit in a portfolio. ===================== Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates investment strategies across Stocks, Commodities, ETFs and Crypto. Whether you’re rotating into AI & Gold, allocating to the S&P 500, or accumulating Bitcoin, Arch Public executes your plan 24/7 without ever taking custody of your assets or funds. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com, and start your FREE automated trading strategy! ===================== GalaxyOne is a financial technology platform built for people who want their cash working harder. → https://go.galaxy.app/HMiq/pomp Galaxy Premium Yield is an investment note issued by Galaxy Digital LP and guaranteed by Galaxy Digital Holdings LP. It is not a bank deposit, is unsecured, and is not FDIC or SIPC insured. U. S. accredited investors only. Cash deposits held at Cross River Bank, Member FDIC. Securities products are not FDIC insured, not bank guaranteed, and may lose value. GalaxyOne Crypto is not FDIC or SIPC insured. Terms apply. ===================== 0:00 - Intro1:17 - October weakness & the Q4 setup5:18 - Money rotating out of tech into the broader market?7:05 - Nvidia valuations & earnings growth8:28 - Big Tech’s AI spending risks & how to play tech12:53 - Record cash on the sidelines & midterm stats15:05 - The buying thrust signal16:37 - Fed outlook & does it matter?18:46 - Earnings & consumer strength21:51 - Bitcoin, gold & land23:40 - Rising yields & digital credit26:25 - Q4 outlook

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Speaker 00

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• 0:30Speaker 01

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• 1:00Speaker 02

  We talked about midterms coming up. Just real simple for everybody out there listening. You just start the day of the midterm and go one year out. The SP500 and Phil's probably shared this too. SP500 has never been lower the last 19 times. 19 times a year later, we're higher after midterms. Not all of those are up a ton, I want to be clear, but still you're up like 15% on average, which is nearly twice the at any time one year return. So again, not about red, not about blue, it's about green. Now, one more on midterms if I can quickly here.

• 1:27Anthony Pompliano?

  What's going on, guys? Today we got an excellent conversation with Ryan Dietrich. He's the chief market strategist at Carson Group. And this guy, he's got high energy and he's got unique insights that are going to help you make money in your portfolio. In this conversation, we talk about why October is sometimes weak? What is the best day in the stock market? Why he has a bunch of data from the historical performance of the stock market that suggests Q4 is going to be very good, even though every headline and every person you talk to tells you that you should be worried right now? He's a big believer in the AI trade and the tech trade. And he thinks that there's a ton of stuff happening in the market right now no one's talking about. But if he's right, that is going to lead to higher prices over the rest of this year and over the next 12 months. So this conversation hopefully will allow you to get a little bit of confidence that

• 2:11Anthony Pompliano?

  all the bears are wrong, that Ryan Dietrich knows what he's talking about. I'm excited for you to listen. Here's my latest conversation with Ryan Dietrich. All right, Ryan, everyone's freaking out going into the end of October, but you think actually this weakness is not only predictable, but it's something people just got to kind of weather the storm. Can you explain how you're thinking about right now?

• 2:27Speaker 02

  That's right. You know, first of all, thanks on me back. There's so much to talk about here, but the reality, October phobia is real. You know, it's a spooky season. Then you look at history and it's normal to have weakness, you know, the first three weeks or so of October. I mean, and this stuff isn't perfect, but historically the strongest day of the year is October 28th. All right, now that's also my birthday, so I'm not so sure if that's a coincidence or not, but you get this major low late October and then you rally. And I think it's, um, it's almost, we've talked before we started recording, it's almost too simple. Like everyone's freaking out. I mean, there's so much bearishness. I mean, hedge funds last Thursday had one of their worst days since the day after the US debt downgrade way back in 2011 for the old, old timers who remember that.

• 3:12Speaker 02

  Hedge funds have their most shorts in five years. I mean, there's a lot of negativity and maybe rightfully so, I get it, but we're going to get into some other things that aren't so, I don't think you should be so negative about. But the reality here, Anthony, I think this late October low midterm years, all the freakouts that are there, uh, it's probably going to cause max pain market. Last thing, market likes to cause max pain. And right now it sure feels like a lot of people are expecting lower bad things to happen. And I like to take the contrarian to that signal.

• 3:40Anthony Pompliano?

  Well, I see a lot of people calling for much lower lows, but more importantly is they all seem to just think that we're going to grind down. Like there's no specific catalyst for the drop. It's just kind of like, hey, things have sucked in their opinion. They continue to suck now. And so why would things go up? So it must go down. Like gravity will take over to some degree. My base case is that we have weakness going into around the election, uh, the midterm. And then once we get the midterm election certainty, regardless of who wins, like it almost doesn't matter who wins. Once we get that certainty, we have strength going in through the end of the year. Is that kind of your view as well?

• 4:14Speaker 02

  It is. And you look historically, the strongest two months in a midterm year are October and November. We, we say here, Carson, it's not about red, not about blue, it's about green. I mean, that's the stuff you need to think about. Now listen, we can get way in the weeds in this, those credit default swaps on some of those, um, hyperscalers and the neo clouds. Yeah, there's some concern there, but then you look at like high yield credit spreads and things, they're not blowing out by any means. I say there's a monster under the bed, the credit markets would sense it. We're not seeing that. And then you look at like, I don't know, maybe I'm getting ahead of the card here, but look at breadth. I mean, what's happening? Yeah, tech has a bad day. And then you have like 300 or 400 stocks up. And we saw that last week, even though like Thursday was a down day, but a lot of stocks participating.

• 4:55Speaker 02

  So it's this, um, interesting dichotomy where we're seeing passing the baton around, right? Lifeblood, lifeblood market is rotation. I mean, if tech blows up, listen, my bullish thesis probably isn't going to play out. Last week, software is up 6%. Software all of a sudden starting to come back. I don't think that's a bad thing. Yeah, you don't want semiconductors to keep, you know, going down and momentum to keep crashing or South Korea crashing. One more thing on this, actually. We had a major stock market literally earlier this week crash. Brazil, Brazil was down 20% because of the election. Now they were up like 20% quickly, you know, a couple of weeks ago. But Anthony, I'm really encouraged by the fact that major stock market just crashed and literally no one even noticed or no one even seemed to care. Trust me, somebody cared. I don't mean to minimize it, but the fact that US markets are still consolidating after

• 5:38Speaker 02

  a 15% rally in April and May on the S and P, we've literally gone nowhere for like five months. I know it's frustrating the bulls and the bears, let's be honest, because we haven't gone anywhere, but we're consolidating. And I think again, that the upward trend, this bull market, which is in its fifth year, um, you know, we just had his fourth birthday. No bull market that made it to his fourth birthday, the last 50 years died before the fifth birthday, average of eight years. I've talked with you for a couple of years about these cycles that last longer you think. I think this sideways action for five months, it's frustrating everybody is a good thing. And we're going to continue to go higher here before this year is over.

• 6:10Anthony Pompliano?

  Let's talk about this idea of breadth in, uh, in the market. So, uh, Phil Rosen, who is a friend of yours and I's, uh, he recently put out this chart and blew my mind, right? Because it's such a narrative violation. What he said was the average stock rose during the dot com bust. And he shows that the S and P 500 during the dot com bust was down almost 20%. But if you take the equal weight S and P 500, it actually was up 5.6% during the same time period. Is that kind of what we're seeing now is everyone is paying attention to tech and kind of sentiment is tied to the AI trade, but actually the rest of the market is still continuing to be strong and doing well?

• 6:45Speaker 02

  Yeah, we think so. And shout, you've joined Phil a couple of times on his podcast. I love listening to that. So you guys need to do that more often. That's really great stuff. Um, and that's very true because of the late nineties, that's when I started getting the bug and all this stuff. I thought tech was all you could own. And then, yeah, it crashed and everybody lost a lot of money on leverage and all the trouble that we see. But then you look back and you realize, you know, there were sectors that did really well in 2001, 2002. Now, yes, it was still a bear market, it wasn't like rip roaring, but, but the rotation was real. I mean, I work with a guy named Son of our geese on our team. He did some really interesting work on this stuff. Um, and again, it's like, yeah, tech was down, but a lot of other groups did well. Now I think still where we are right now, we're not so sure though the tech is, the tech trade's done, right? I mean, I think tech is taking its break here. The hyperscalers are still spinning.

• 7:30Speaker 02

  There's still positive things that are taking place out there. And, you know, I, I'm not a huge valuations guy, but I mean, you know, Dan Ives, no, he's been on with you a couple of times. I mean, Nvidia is the cheapest it's been in a long time. Amazon is cheap as it's been since it's been a publicly traded company. I mean, there are some really nice valuations on some companies that make a lot of money and are still, um, still growing very, very quickly on the tech side of things. And, you know, last thing, we say tech or bust, you know? I mean, I don't think this tech trade's over, but I still encouraged by the fact that healthcare is ripping, staples are ripping, different areas have taken that baton when tech took a little bit of a step back, but I still think tech is probably going to lead us into next year.

• 8:06Anthony Pompliano?

  Now, when you look at Nvidia being the cheapest it's ever been as a public company, what does that tell you? Is that like the market is pricing in that they're going to get disrupted? Is that the market saying it was too overvalued before and now this is a healthier valuation? Is that people saying, we don't believe your future projections? Like what, what do you take away from something like that?

• 8:23Speaker 02

  Yeah, I think it's a combination of those. And that's kind of the easy answer. I mean, I will say this much, like when we look at major peaks, right? You tend to get expansion in multiples. And this isn't just this cycle, these are all these different cycles, Anthony. And, and you look at it, I mean, yes, the valuations on the SP500 are down like 15%. Yet the S and P's ballpark up 12 or 13% the time we're doing this. How in the world is that possible? If you'd have told me multiples would be down like this this year, I don't think I would have thought the market would be up this much. It's because earnings growth has grown over 30% this year, um, is why. And again, you know, then you can think of it like, well, what if more confidence comes back? It's this whole thing I was kind of talking a couple of questions ago about, um, not a lot of confidence out there and with multiple contraction.

• 9:05Speaker 02

  Well, listen, with yields doing what they're doing, history tells us higher yields, multiple contraction is how this tends to work. At the same time, you know, earnings are justifying this. And I think with more good news, multiple expansion, just imagine, last thing on this, just imagine if earnings stay strong, the bull market keeps going, but we start to get multiple expansion, which I think is probably the play next year. Those are all still positives for investors in our opinion.

• 9:28Anthony Pompliano?

  Now, what do you think the bears have right? What is the biggest critique that you're like, you know what? I actually agree with that, uh, with that issue.

• 9:36Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, I talked about a second ago, the credit default swaps on a lot of these hyperscalers, Nvidia, Amazon, obviously some of the neo clouds. I mean, those are really, really blowing out. SpaceX, I mean, every day you turn around, one of these companies are saying, we're going to spend another 10 billion here, 50 billion there. Meta is going to sell 90 billion here to go buy, to build more data centers. I'm not saying the bears are right, but when I see all of that, you know, it's like, there's a lot, I'm saying it's not obvious here, there's a lot of spending going on, like more than we've ever seen, more than the railroads in the 1860s, more than the infrastructure highways in the 1950s, the space race, even more than the internet bubble boom of the 1990s. So there's a lot of money being put at this. So we saw with Meta last week, they said, hey, things are great.

• 10:21Speaker 02

  And you look, it's like, ah, negative cash flow. And the stock's down seven or eight percent last Thursday. So those are the things that have our attention, but then it comes back to what we just said. Just don't go all in on tech. I mean, there's other areas, stay diversified. I mean, what's happened when South Korea just crashed not that long ago, a week or two ago? What happened? Well, every single day Europe was higher, you know? I mean, it's like just keep a diversified portfolio, stay overweight equities is one thing we've been preaching for a long time now. And I still think you're going to benefit from it, but I, I don't know. I just don't think this tech wave is over. What's our buddy Dan Ives say? You know, it's like, maybe it's one in the morning. And this party still has some time left to it, I think, and tech's probably going to come back.

• 10:54Anthony Pompliano?

  When you think about this technology, there's many different ways to play. You can go to the app layer, you can go to, you know, powered land, the whole thing. How do you see your clients actually getting exposure?

• 11:06Speaker 02

  Yes, good one there. So we are, we manage about $9.1 billion on, on the Carson investment research team for financial advisors all over the country and their clients. We, uh, you know, we have a slight overweight to technology. I mean, we XLK, you know, we're not getting too cute, too specific with it. We do some more tactical models. We've had some semiconductor exposure. We've had some, um, uh, software exposure. You know, we have momentum. I mean, high momentum is another way potentially to play some of this. The high momentum's come back in a big way, as we know. You know, we've looked the last three years, look at high momentum relative to the excess returns over the S and P 500 the last three years, even after this huge momentum, almost crash that we've seen Anthony the last, you know, month or so, still in 95th percentile. So that tells you how well momentum's done.

• 11:47Speaker 02

  So really momentum, little bit overweight tech, owning some software, owning some semiconductors, those are areas, those are ways we've done it. Now, are we all in on like Neo clouds and things like that? No, no, we're not getting to quite that specific of a level. But that's how we're, that's how we're doing it.

• 12:01Anthony Pompliano?

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• 13:31Anthony Pompliano?

  The best part though, is that you can actually set it so that your yield immediately is reinvested into your favorite stocks, crypto or ETFs. You don't got to think about it every single month. It just automatically does it for you. That's why I love Galaxy One. So if your cash isn't working as hard as you are, then it's time to make a move. Check out the link in the description and start earning today. Now, the other side of this is if everyone is worried about whether it's the AI trade, the tech, uh, you know, kind of correlations, uh, even a broader market sell-off, they got to take their capital and go somewhere. And there's been a lot of cash that is being hoarded in many different types of vehicles. Uh, I've seen you talking on X about this. Can you explain, one, what's happening, but also two, why maybe you think that this is actually a bullish sign?

• 14:16Speaker 02

  Exactly. So like, we'll keep it simple. Look at like money market flows and like cash, like ETF flows on a three-month rolling basis. All I need to know, this is like the most we've ever seen. Okay. And why is it? Well, because yeah, a lot of people were in some of the high flyers that came back. And also a lot of people within bonds, bonds have not had a good run. We all understand interest rates have gone up, so bonds are struggling. So people are kind of just like, you know what? Give me cash, let me make three, four, five percent in cash. I'm done with messing around with bonds. I don't want to mess around with the stock market. But you look at history, when you have these major surges in money market and cash like ETFs, we'll take a wild guess. That usually is when the market tends to bottom. And again, then the other things like inverse ETFs, right? And we're seeing huge volume on some of these inverse, like kind of bearish ETFs, if you will, huge volume on those as well.

• 14:59Speaker 02

  So the inner contrarian in me keeps kind of buzzing. And then like we talked about mid-terms coming up, just real simple for everybody out there listening. You just start the day of the midterm and go one year out. The S and P 500, and Phil's probably shared this too. S and P 500 has never been lower to last 19 times. 19 times a year later, we're higher after midterms. Not, not all of those were up a ton, I want to be clear, but still you're up like 15% on average, which is nearly twice the at any time one-year return. So again, not about red, not about blue, it's about green. Now, one more on midterms, if I can quickly hear, um, let's say the, don't shoot the messenger, everybody, please. I mean, we all see these stats and things, but you know, Democrats probably are going to take back the House. The Senate's a little more of a coin flip.

• 15:40Speaker 02

  So we think there's more of a chance Republicans might defend the Senate because they had, do have a much easier map. The Democrats have a much harder map. So that's called a split Congress. The last 13 years, Anthony, we had a split Congress. The S and P 500 was up. Now, now listen, there's other factors to this, but gridlock can be a good thing. And we think, you know, it's something to think about when this election comes up here sooner than later.

• 16:05Anthony Pompliano?

  Now, I recently saw you talking about this idea of a buying thrust.

• 16:10Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 16:10Anthony Pompliano?

  And the entire idea is that more than 50% of the S and P 500 hit a new 20-day high. This matters as 55% is a buying thrust and has never been lower a year later. Of course, this time is different with defensive areas leading.

• 16:24Speaker 02

  Yeah, right. Exactly. And that's, that's the big question because we have a lot of stocks that are going up. It doesn't feel like it to investors that are overweight technology and communication services and Neo clouds and AI and all that stuff. But there is a lot of participation. Now, my take is this, again, when we look at this, it's called the graph indicator, right? Jeff DeGraff over at RenMac kind of found this. When 55% of all the stocks in the S and P 500 hit a 20-day high, so call it like a one-month high, S and P's higher like 21 or 22 times, uh, every single time a year later with some really strong returns. The last time we saw this signal was May of 2025, right? When all that destruction happened around liberation day and everything, we started to come back. So I don't know. I mean, my take is this, breadth is a good thing. I think you're going to start to see better breadth from technology.

• 17:06Speaker 02

  And if that happens, start to, those can hit 20-day highs, then you're going to have that signal. And that's still a, um, a, a big time positive development. We're not there yet. You know, over 70% of the stocks are above their 20-day moving average, like over, you know, well over 50% are above their 200-day moving average. I mean, breadth was this story, everyone saw how bad it was. And October 1st happened, all of a sudden breadth got a lot better. And we understand what's happened though, because tech has obviously lagged, as everyone knows. But still, I think breadth's a better under the surface and with tech coming, likely coming back, that could signal some of these buying thrusts, which will just keep this bull market going.

• 17:37Anthony Pompliano?

  This week, we're going to get the Fed decision. Does it matter? Does it actually impact stocks in the way that maybe it did, you know, 10 years ago?

• 17:44Speaker 02

  Well, let's put it this way, the last, he's only been, Warch has been there three times, right? Three, this is his fourth meeting. The market sold off pretty hard that day of every single time. So I don't think it's necessarily what he said, I think it's what he probably didn't say, because he didn't want to say anything. Then the market did come back. So big picture on us with the Fed, you know, yes, they've hiked once. You look at what they're saying though, I mean, they're, it seems like they're pretty dovish. Even the most hawkish people, when you look at those Fed dot plots, the most hawkish people out there are saying there's only going to be two hikes next year, Anthony. I mean, I think this is a Fed that does not really want to hike. You look at what the two-year saying, look at Fed, Fed Fund Futures are saying, yeah, maybe a little bit more hawkishness is priced in. We're taking the other side of that and think there are going to be a little bit more dov, net dovish coming out. Maybe they do one more hike in, um, in December. And then we think they're probably going to take a break.

• 18:28Speaker 02

  And you look at it, you know, 97 is the one time they did it a one and done, one hike and then done. Market was up over 30% a year later back then. We do think they probably do one more hike this year. But I think again, what's being priced in is major, major hawkishness. And we're not so sure that's the play here. So we'll, we'll, we'll see. He doesn't like to say anything. I mean, so we'll just, we'll find out, we might not learn much tomorrow when the Fed meeting happens. But the reality is, I think, one more hike and that's probably it.

• 18:52Anthony Pompliano?

  Do you think it's positive or negative that he doesn't like to say anything?

• 18:55Speaker 02

  I think it's positive. I, I think it's fine with me. I'm, I'm, I don't know. I started this industry a long time ago, nobody talked about the Fed. So like, it's like all these different opinions and I kind of like the idea, like, let's say less, let's let the market do its thing. Let's let free markets work a little bit. I mean, now you can go down a real rabbit hole, you need a Fed if you're a big free markets guy. I'm not going that route. But the reality is, uh, he doesn't want to say anything. Now, the problem is, everybody else loves the camera. All these other Fed members, like one of them says one thing, one says another. So kind of you just lose your mind with a lot of this. But, um, yeah, I, I'm not so sure. Well, let's put it this way, if earnings keep doing what they're doing, profit margins hitting new highs, earnings keep going higher. And then you get maybe a little bit more of a net dovish Fed. I mean, those are the things that matter a lot more than, you know, Warch says this at one cocktail hour and Warch says this at one breakfast hour.

• 19:39Speaker 02

  I think we, um, those things, uh, he's back to the Alan Greenspan playbook, which again is just not saying a lot, but not really saying anything at the same time.

• 19:47Anthony Pompliano?

  I don't know what the latest data is, but the last time I looked, about 15% or so of companies had reported and 88% of them had beat on an EPS basis. And that just feels like fundamentally, uh, of course the stock market should go higher. Companies are making more money, they're becoming more valuable. If you just boil it down to like, are companies improving? Are they becoming more efficient? Are they becoming more profitable? And if that leads to higher prices, then almost everything else seems like noise in the short term.

• 20:14Speaker 02

  Yeah, you're right. And what the banks say, they kicked it off, or they said the consumer is still pretty solid. They said loans are still happening and people are still going out there spending. And we have a lot of big names and retail names still have to report. But overall, it's been really positive once again. And it's not just like, we're talking about the S and P 500. I mean, look at like forward 12-month earnings on small caps, on mid caps, on SMID. I mean, those have been going like straight up. Okay, it's not just large caps that are starting to make a lot more money in this type of environment. And look around the globe. I mean, Europe's, I know Europe's kind of a mess, you turn on TV, what in the world's going on over there? But their economy still looks pretty solid. I mean, I know it sounds wild when you look at TV, but their earnings are still pretty solid. Or emerging markets, obviously are still solid. Now, yeah, a lot of that's because of South Korea and the incredible growth we're seeing out of, out of the chip trade.

• 20:56Speaker 02

  But the reality, or the AI memory trade, the reality is this is a global bull market being led by global earnings, not just US large cap. It's not just seven stocks anymore. There are a lot of companies, uh, that are making money and this earnings season is not done. So yeah, I'm aware, you know, things could change a little bit, but it's been a nice start so far.

• 21:13Anthony Pompliano?

  You mentioned that the consumer is still spending and there is a data point that blew my mind. I actually had to go look to make sure that this was true. Recreational products, pools, RVs, boats, et cetera, are up, but ticker pool, P O O L, is up 20% in October.

• 21:30Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 21:30Anthony Pompliano?

  What is going on there?

• 21:32Speaker 02

  That's a good one, because I mentioned this two weeks ago, when I was looking at like, you know, 110 different sectors. And two weeks ago, when everything was crazy, everybody saw how bad it was, the recreation products group was the best one, up like 15%. Then it followed up with like another 8% gain last week. And you look, yeah, there's only so many stocks that are in there. And it's not like pool said, everybody's going to buy a pool. Okay, I want to be very clear, or RVs, pools, you know, the recreation stuff, the fun stuff. But I think they said, you know, it's not as bad as people think. And people are realizing maybe money's rotating from some of the high flyers to some of the areas that might do a little bit better with lower interest rates, specifically housing stocks, which did really well. And now some of these recreation things, and maybe you do potentially in your house. But I think the bottom line to us, the consumer is not dead. Everybody keeps saying the consumer is dead.

• 22:15Speaker 02

  Just last, but two weeks ago, maybe, give or take, we got retail sales, Anthony. The last three months, restaurants are running at annualized like 10 or 11% restaurants and bars. I mean, that's, I don't know, call me old fashioned, I don't think that's a bad thing. If people are going out to restaurants and spending, that's still a positive thing. But the market is smart and all. If we can complain, or we can love what's happening, it doesn't really matter. The message of the market, again, is some of these beaten down areas on the consumer side have just come soaring back, like you just mentioned with pool. And the reality is, I think that's a leading indicator, this economy is going to continue to be strong into into next year.

• 22:50Anthony Pompliano?

  Now, one thing, regardless of who is in office is true, is that they're going to keep printing money. They're pretty clear about that. And so I immediately jumped to, okay, well, Bitcoin, gold, land, those feel like three assets that, you know, benefit from that. What is your guys' current view or outlook on those three?

• 23:05Speaker 02

  Yeah, we own all three of them. I mean, if you look at our unconstrained tactical models, we can do anything we want. We're about 68% equity. So that's 32% other stuff. In the old days, that would have been 32% bonds. Well, no, that's not the way this works anymore. And I've talked with you for a while about this, I think. We added gold to our tactical models for the first time, again, a real money we run back in, let's see, late March of 2023, during the regional bank crisis. We have about a one and a half percent allocation to Bitcoin, maybe about a 3% allocation to to gold. We have some hard assets, some real assets, some other stuff. I wouldn't say like, in place of stocks, it's more in place of fixed income. So we totally own bonds. You manage a lot of money, you have to own bonds. But I think to

• 23:46Speaker 02

  have that other stuff, diversify your diversifiers is a theme we've said for a long time. And I think this up, yeah, I know yields have come back lately. We still think this economy is strong. Nominal GDP growth, Anthony, the last couple of months, or last couple of quarters, between 6% to 8%. We've been saying for a while, yield should stay higher. At the start of this year, everybody said, how many times is the Fed going to cut? We said, you know, it's going to be really hard from the cut. Didn't say they couldn't. But we've always said yields will be stubbornly high. I mean, bonds probably don't do as well. So you want to have something, if you drop it, hit your foot, and it hurts in your portfolio, like gold, I mean, Bitcoin hurts your foot when you drop it. But nonetheless, some Bitcoin, some gold, some hard real assets, you know, different things like that are going to help that portfolio. And this year, and I mean, the Barclays Ag is still, I think, down for the year, even after what we've seen in yields drop the last couple of weeks. So those have

• 24:31Speaker 02

  really, really helped from a portfolio point of view. You know, if you own those things, I think you should continue to have those in your portfolio.

• 24:38Anthony Pompliano?

  One of the areas of finance that I am fascinated by is the intersection of yield and crypto, et cetera. And so one, one thing that has become very popular are these perpetual prefers that are being offered by, you know, a strategy, strive, et cetera. Have you guys looked at those? Is there conversation with clients about, hey, these like higher yielding things that are backed by this like digital credit idea?

• 25:04Speaker 02

  No, we haven't. We've looked into them. We know about them. I'm not so sure of compliance. I live in a world of compliance, you got to understand. We probably need to get a little more research on that. But, you know, there's, there's, it just shows there's lots of different ways to do this. I mean, again, people want higher yields. I mean, that's what it is. And you see what's going on with all these, why are yields higher? By the way, well, maybe it's a stronger economy. Maybe it's because there's inflation expectations. Yeah, I think so. Or it's all this incredible, every time you turn around, look, just yesterday, there were three major, major multi tens, 20 billion dollar deals, all these companies issuing a lot of debt. It's like, I can go make more money if I buy the debt of XYZ company versus a Treasury. So that's kind of pushing all these yields higher. And that's a theme, again, that we don't think is going to slow down. I mean, I wouldn't be shocked this time we come back in a year, this bull market's turning five, we're still higher, things are still hanging

• 25:48Speaker 02

  in there. And the 10-year yields probably around 6%. The last five years of the 1990s, when things were pretty good, last I checked, we averaged 6% on the 10-year yield with a nominal growth of GDP, which actually a little bit less than what we're seeing now. Now, there's other factors to all of this. But I think this upward bias to yields and people wanting to get higher yields is a theme that's going to continue.

• 26:08Anthony Pompliano?

  And do you think that the chasing of yield, or the desire for yield, it hurts equities, or it actually is a tailwind for the equities as well?

• 26:15Speaker 02

  I mean, let's put it this way, for last several years, it's been the tailwind. I guess maybe there's some point where the, where the dam breaks. But, but for now, to us, with nominal GDP growth, what it's doing, earnings growth doing what it's doing, yields continue to trickle higher. You know, the best answer to that, as I started talking, we don't like, well, not we, but the market doesn't like huge volatility. I mean, if the 10-year yield went from here to 550 in a hurry, yeah, that's a lot of volatility, that upset the apple cart. But if it continues to just kind of trickle higher, like we think it probably will, and honestly, like what it's kind of been doing, yeah, it's up a lot this year, but it's trickling higher along the way. You know, I think that continues to be more of a net tailwind, not necessarily to equities, but just to the economy that's growing. I mean, again, why are yields higher? Is it because inflation's going to be soaring? Or is because global growth continues to look pretty solid? Maybe it's a combination

• 27:00Speaker 02

  of those. We'd side more door number two, global growth. We've got something called the Carson, Leading Economic Indicator. So new, put this together on our team. I'll keep it real simple. Four years ago, when everyone told us there was going to be a recession, our LEI, Leading Economic Indicator, was saying no recession. It's turned higher recently, Anthony, saying again, the economy likely into next year is going to turn higher. And that probably means yields keep going higher as well. And the stock market, in our opinion, price still hangs in there and does well also.

• 27:25Anthony Pompliano?

  Hey, from, from your lips to God's ears, I tend to agree with you. I tend to think that all the bears, they're, they're drunk on their, you know, bear thoughts. They definitely are rallying each other up, spinning each other up. But the market is pretty strong. It seems like it doesn't really care what's being said. So we're going to see what happens.

• 27:47Speaker 02

  I'll leave on this. So when you have a 10% jump in the second quarter in the S and P, like we did, we did. The fourth quarter's never been lower, higher like nine out of nine out of nine times. I mean, the fourth quarter, you go back the last, you know, 13 years, it's higher 12 times. The time we're doing this, I think we're virtually flat on the S and P in the fourth quarter. So I still think we're going to have a fourth quarter surge for all the reasons we just laid out, Anthony.

• 28:06Anthony Pompliano?

  Fourth quarter, fourth quarter, you know, you're seeing the high school football game, right? Throwing up the fours.

• 28:11Speaker 02

  That's right, we're there.

• 28:13Anthony Pompliano?

  All right. I appreciate it very much. Where can we send people to find you on the internet or find out more about the research?

• 28:17Speaker 02

  Well, I appreciate that. So I guess X Twitter, at Ryan Dietrich is an easy one. Then I've got a weekly podcast, already mentioned his name a few times, that So new and I do, called Facts Versus Feelings. So check, check out Facts Versus Feelings and follow me on X. And that's probably the easiest way to do it.

• 28:32Anthony Pompliano?

  How does somebody not watch a podcast called Facts Versus Feeling? That's like the definition of investing is.

• 28:38Speaker 02

  We've done, we've done 210 of them once a week. So we've been doing it for about four years now. And it's been a lot of fun. It's grown. And it's been, it's been an honor to get to do that every single week. So there's always something to talk about. That's what makes it fun. There's always something to talk about.

• 28:49Anthony Pompliano?

  I love it. All right. Thank you very much for doing this, Ryan. We'll talk again soon.

• 28:52Speaker 02

  Appreciate it. Thank you.