Bitcoin Is the Toll Collector of the AI Economy | Jordi Visser

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack. In this conversation, we break down the coming “bankpocalypse,” why AI agents will disrupt banks and big tech, and whether AI models are becoming commoditized. We also discuss the bitcoin setup, crypto’s shift from contrarian to consensus trade on Wall Street, and how to separate signal from noise in the AI bubble debate. ======================== Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates investment strategies across Stocks, Commodities, ETFs and Crypto. Whether you’re rotating into AI & Gold, allocating to the S&P 500, or accumulating Bitcoin, Arch Public executes your plan 24/7 without ever taking custody of your assets or funds. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com, and start your FREE automated trading strategy! ======================== Simple Mining makes Bitcoin mining simple and accessible for everyone. We offer a premium white glove hosting service, helping you maximize the profitability of Bitcoin mining. For more information on Simple Mining or to get started mining Bitcoin, visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp ======================== This podcast is sponsored by Abra.com. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account structure. Learn more at http://www.abra.com http://www.abra.com/. ======================== 0:00 - Intro0:54 - The “bankpocalypse” 5:20 - Can AI agents disrupt Amazon & the banks?10:08 - Are AI models becoming commoditized?20:40 - How do personal agents make money?23:30 - Toll collectors: compute & crypto28:16 - Bitcoin outlook & why patience pays33:53 - Crypto & Wall Street: contrarian to consensus38:46 - Bubble talk: signal vs noise44:00 - Jordi’s 2027 crypto world tour

• 0:01Speaker 00

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• 0:30Speaker 01

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• 1:00Speaker 02

  When it starts to happen, there's an AI theme behind it. I want to make sure people realize when it comes to crypto, this is 100% for me about agents. And I'm telling you, the amount of traditional people that continue to bang on my door to talk about tokenization, to talk about how to make money on this, they're doing their homework now. I think next year is going to be the year that we see the biggest moves in crypto because of it.

• 1:26Speaker 03

  What's going on, guys? Today we got a great conversation with Jordy Visser. In this conversation, we talk about what's going on with AI agents, how crypto and Wall Street are coming together. Then we talk about the idea of this going from a contrarian to a consensus trade. And then Jordy and I, we debate a little bit as to general purpose models versus specialized workflows. Where is value going to accrue in the AI industry? And then we get into the bubble talk. All these people worried about a big bubble and Jordy helps us separate both the signal from the noise. Here's my latest conversation with Jordy Visser. All right, Jordy, this week there's a Bloomberg piece about you. The Bloomberg piece said, forget the AI bubble. Jordy Visser says the bank apocalypse has begun. Congratulations on the Bloomberg coverage. You're a big deal now, but also-

• 2:08Speaker 02

  They waited for me to say something negative.

• 2:09Speaker 03

  Negative. They didn't say anything positive.

• 2:11Speaker 02

  No, no, no. Media loves bearish things.

• 2:14Speaker 03

  Well, bank apocalypse will definitely get clicks. What is the bank apocalypse and why do you think it is coming?

• 2:22Speaker 02

  So I posted an X that morning. I didn't see the article until someone pointed it out to me.

• 2:28Speaker 02

  We've talked about it before, but I really did a lot of it on my, my video last weekend. So rather than turn this into some like the banks are all going to go to zero thing. The software companies went through their SaaS apocalypse. So number one thing, it's a play on the SaaS apocalypse thing. The SaaS got hurt for two reasons or two, two stories behind it. One is the recognition from people that AI was going to disrupt. Seat based SaaS software, not all of software. Cyber has done well. Bitcoin miners have done well. They're in there as well. Microsoft's been fine, but the reality was AI hurt these companies despite the fact that they continue to print for the most part, record earnings.

• 3:11Speaker 02

  And that was a sign, if you remember in that first quarter, one of the most important signals for everyone to think about when it comes to sectors is that because of exponential innovation and AI continuing to increase progress, at some point it will be a negative for almost every single industry and especially legacy industries. And I just want to make sure, because I tried to, I tried to show that in the X post and I'll use some of that here. I believe the banks now are going to go through a problem, which is they're going to come under multiple compression over the course of the next year because of two factors. One is the rise of AI agents, which means consumers are going from, let's say lazy,

• 3:54Speaker 02

  individual, small businesses have their money in banks that pay them zero yield. That's really good for the banks. When the banks can take your deposits, of which there's a lot, pay you zero, take that money invested in treasuries yielding 4% short term, not like SVB did long term, but short term, you can get a spread on this. So we saw the article from Torsten Slok with an agentic bank run. So he was going a different angle, but that's part of it. And I don't want to say that there's going to be a run because that's what's going to happen. What I want to say is that agents are not going to make mistakes. They are going to search for the cheapest way to do thing. And that means that as agents control more of the money decisions, banks are going to

• 4:39Speaker 02

  be in trouble. The second thing is that the guardrails are going to apply pressure as well. And this is where crypto fits in. So when you have the users, the consumers no longer being humans, but being digital agents, and at the same time you have financial guardrails, which are being in the system more with their same day settlement, which means stable coins, which means tokenization. We're headed towards that. Settlement, long-term settlement is a good thing for banks, for Visa, for Mastercard. The longer it takes for some, somebody gets that float, somebody gets the chance to invest that money for a day, for three days. And if it's instant settlement, it's not the same. So this was really a, a belief that banks will still make money, but the spread, the edge that they had, their multiples over the future are going to be hit by terminal value again.

• 5:24Speaker 02

  So it's not a like doom and gloom thing. I kind of played with the SaaS apocalypse to create bank apocalypse, but that is what in my opinion is certainly going to happen with the rise of consumer agents.

• 5:34Speaker 03

  Is there a positive to this? Like the consumer wins in this scenario?

• 5:40Speaker 02

  Yeah, the consumer wins. The people who invest in the financial guardrails are going to see more traffic. So if you invest in crypto and it's a small asset class, you'll do well. The, the only place I see getting hurt is the middlemen. And so labor versus capital has been an issue. The consumers, we have a K shaped economy. Anything that is going to make it more powerful to bring, you know, inflation down, at least on the service side, is going to be positive in the long run. So your question, everyone should be thinking about it. What's the positive side? Well, the positive side is if we can reduce the fees, you'd be shocked at how much money the banks take purely on a spread basis from everyone.

• 6:19Speaker 03

  Well, the reason I say that is we never see the headlines of the positive news. Like one of the chapters in the book I just showed, actually, I don't know if you know this, is planes that land safely never make the news. Right? And so like same thing here is when people see disruption occurring, they always cover it from the angle of who is being disrupted. They never are like, consumers will make X billion dollars more because they now will have their money not parked in, you know, low yielding assets or whatever. So the perspective I think matters, but it also plays into, I don't know if you saw Paul Graham this week. Amazon made the decision to stop, I think it was Muse and some other bots or agents

• 7:03Speaker 03

  from accessing Amazon. And he came out and I thought it was probably one of the most interesting perspectives this week was the first time in decades that he believes someone could expose or exploit a wedge to disrupt Amazon. And his point was if somebody could build an Amazon that was made for the agents, that could be very disruptive. Now Shopify, I think is leaning into, hey, how do your agents come and buy things and do all this? But that feels like the banks are the same thing. Like if somebody builds a bank that is agent friendly, it's probably going to be pretty valuable, right?

• 7:39Speaker 02

  Well, let's separate the bank, meaning where you place your money. If they pay you the fair spread, meaning if you deposit money in a bank and they pay you and all you're doing is I'm getting interest on that money. Then there's the other service side. They call you up, we want you to invest, you know, they all own brokerage houses, they all own, they want, they want to make sure they're making money. This is, this is the service side of the business. Stripe is not a bank, but Stripe is competing with all of them. And that's what I included in the piece. This weekend I will go through about 15 slides of Stripe. Citibank is a $200 billion market cap company with 200,000 people.

• 8:23Speaker 02

  Stripe has 10,000 people. It's about $160 billion currently off the latest valuations. If you go through their M and A activity, if you go through their volumes, their revenue is up 41% year over year, according to them. You go through every metric in their revenue side. They have already built for the crypto world. They already are set up for this. They're already set up for the agentic side. They've been talking about agentic commerce for a long time. These older banks of which I worked for one, it's very hard to get through the bureaucracy and make a decision. They've always had the ability and this is one of the things that I think people should just really listen to when it comes to something that I feel by using AI and why I try to help people use it as much as you can.

• 9:07Speaker 02

  The progress is insanely fast, as you and I both know. These businesses never move fast into something. First of all, there's a calendar year, the summertime, nothing gets done. And then you come back in September and they start focusing on when they're going to pay people for bonuses. And that process, trust me, it's a while. Then they've got to do 360 reviews. Then they have to hand out the bonuses. They have to sit and put a budget in for the next year. This is all time. AI doesn't wait for that. Stripe doesn't wait for that. They don't have the amount of people that Citigroup does. They don't have to bring in the managers from overseas. They don't, it's a, it's a completely different side. So I think the nimble companies and what Paul said about Amazon, if I remember exactly

• 9:51Speaker 02

  what it said, he basically said, never in their history have they been in, had to do this. The reason I think this is important for people to think about when it comes to the hyperscalers, I say all the time, you have to look at how these mags, not the mag seven, but let's just, well, let's say the mag seven became so big. They don't compete with each other for the most part. Apple, Apple has its own business model. Amazon has its own business model. Google has its own. AI agents cut through all of them. They all want consumer agents. And if they start playing this game of we're not allowing Muse to come in because we're waiting on Alexa. And then Siri does the same thing. Apple also announced they're changing the iOS. And they said it was because they didn't want agents penetrating.

• 10:36Speaker 02

  So they used the scare tactic as opposed to, no, we don't want agents to get into this. I would love it right now if my AI agent in Muse could get my Apple messages. It would make, make it a lot easier. I think they're all now in trouble, that they're all basically trying to defend their turf. So they're playing for the same TAM now. And that means that their business to me is being disrupted. And I think Amazon, what Paul Graham wrote, is just a sign that they don't know what to do because these companies are big bureaucracies now.

• 11:08Speaker 03

  Elon Musk tweeted two or three days ago, saying that Grok was going to open up the backend to any model. And for those that are unfamiliar, if you use OpenAI, they will give you either a model that you select. Or if you are just talking to ChatGPT, they may route your query to an OpenAI family of models. They would never send your query on ChatGPT to Anthropic, Claude, et cetera. Grok historically has used their internal stuff, but now they're opening it up and they're saying, well, we're going to actually just route to whoever's the best model to answer your question.

• 11:48Speaker 03

  If that forces the hand of the other players, to me, that signals that the models are commoditized. And now the value of those models becomes much more in question than they already are. I personally think that's where we're headed. Like, we bet Sylvia on this of building a model router and saying, hey, we don't really care what the model is. We just want it to be the best one to answer for the end user. Now Elon's doing it. Does that force OpenAI and Anthropic both to open up themselves as well? Or do you think that they can keep these kind of closed, you know, kingdoms? And similar to how Amazon seems to be kind of creating a closed kingdom. Like, we were playing this game of like bundling and unbundling. That is like the story of, you know, business and finance for decades.

• 12:33Speaker 02

  So this is the one place where you fit in with the masses. So when we, when we talk, like, I disagree with where you're headed with this.

• 12:42Speaker 03

  Okay.

• 12:43Speaker 02

  And I, I've heard this repeatedly from people over the course of the next six months. This is not exactly what you're saying, but it's pretty close. OpenAI and, so ChatGPT and Claude are the best models, plain and simple. Like, I don't care what anyone says to me. As someone who uses all of them and has used open source models, the best model right now is Opus 5.5. The next best.

• 13:04Speaker 03

  For general, general purpose stuff?

• 13:06Speaker 02

  No, no, for the stuff that I do. So that includes images, video, like a general model that will do everything that I need. Not like Gemini makes a lot of mistakes and it comes back with answers that are ridiculous. Opus 4, Opus 5.5 is a game changer. Now, here's the thing.

• 13:24Speaker 03

  You tell Gemini it's silly? You know, it's the most disrespectful thing you can say to a man. It's just, you're silly.

• 13:30Speaker 02

  I don't, I don't understand. So I, I'm, maybe it's because I use them so much that I don't get frustrated by the answers. I don't have to explain twice to them. And trust me, you have employees and you know which ones you might have to say something twice to.

• 13:46Speaker 03

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• 14:29Speaker 03

  It's exactly what every serious investor does. Institutional grade automation that works across every major asset class. There's no more emotional trading, no more missing tax opportunities, just smarter, hands-free execution of your preferred strategies. Go to archpublic.com right now. Connect with their team, set up a time, bring your accountant if you'd like. Then you can learn what automated trading can do for you. Archpublic.com. I'm a very big believer and have always said, I think that people underestimate the importance of their intuition. Because it is, you know, it's your human algorithm, you've been training it. Just as there are benchmarks that are these like objective, open source benchmarks that all the models try to, you know, game or whatever. You have a Jordi benchmark.

• 15:12Speaker 03

  And what you're describing is that Opus is 5.5 is the leading model in the Jordi benchmark.

• 15:19Speaker 02

  Yes, and it's not just for me. How many times does Grok get announced as solving the greatest math problems ever? How many, who's in the fight for that? Like, it's not just me. Who finds an enzyme for CRISPR? Okay, that used to be Google. That's what AlphaGo was. That's what AlphaFold was. That's not what's happening anymore. The stuff that's happening is in these models. And here's the issue. When you start realizing how much compute is needed for consumer agents. So the Paul Graham thing, what you didn't see, Elon also posted that and said, seriously? Like, this is, we're gonna have commoditization in intelligence.

• 16:04Speaker 02

  There's no doubt about it. The difference is, and what people don't realize, the amount of compute you have leads to the models being more efficient. So if you haven't felt this yet, I'm surprised. The cost of the models for like Opus 5.5, they're getting more efficient because they have a ton of compute power behind it. But if it takes you two minutes to get to an answer in Opus 5.5, and a cheaper open source model takes you 12 minutes. When you add up the token usage and the cost and it comes through, the time does matter, not just the answer. And I think everything in AI is about the time relationship to the probability of getting the right answer.

• 16:47Speaker 02

  So everyone only talks about the cost side. That's not the way the world works. We have cheap cars, we have expensive cars. Like, everything in life becomes that. I just think for solving cancer, for solving the greatest problems in the world, that people are going to need to get to space to do this. We're getting, there's going to be high level things that are going to take these models. And the problem is Anthropic and OpenAI are going to own most of the compute going forward. And if the compute matters that much, which it will, because I still will keep saying, and I hear this on the other side. People still fight on like, there's a bubble coming. Like, we are so early in the demand side of tokens, so early. The coding agents didn't even exist a year ago. So that just started.

• 17:30Speaker 02

  The adoption, that means, for corporations. We went through token maxing. Now we're going through, okay, we can't throw this much money at it. We have to be more efficient with our thoughts. While they're figuring out how to do that, the models keep progressing and getting better. And Vera Rubin's going to come out next year. As Vera Rubin comes, for the same amount of gigawatt, you're getting more. Well, who owns most of that? The really smart groups own most of that. So that's where OpenAI, Anthropic, but also Elon Musk, he owns a lot of it too. He's been buying as much Vera Rubin as he can. So I think we're going to get to a point as you move down the road, that the open source is fine for the majority of tasks. 90% of them will be close to zero. But for the 10%, the total TAM of that 10% is going to continue to grow through adoption.

• 18:14Speaker 02

  And that's where Jevon's paradox actually matters, because the cost of it and the efficiency will keep going. And that's really important for people when they think about investing, because I will continue to say, there are two themes that I care about right now. Agentic compute, so the AI infrastructure and the financial guardrails. That's what I believe over the next one year will create the alpha. And if you look back over the last four years, the alpha's all been about AI.

• 18:37Speaker 03

  So I have somewhat of a hot take.

• 18:40Speaker 02

  Good.

• 18:41Speaker 03

  The big labs already are behind in two very important ways. What are the leading personal agents?

• 18:51Speaker 03

  Muse and Instinct, not the big labs. I know they launched Dots, we'll see what happens, but Muse and Instinct are out in front and leading in those two. When you look at specific applications, legal, finance, et cetera, the large language models are not the leading models. They're leading in general purpose, but when you start to get specific, they're not. When you look at it on a cost perspective, I can just go off of our data. If I process 500 million tokens from on Claude, about $5,000. If we process the same 500 million tokens on our own model and our own hardware, it's 97% cheaper. So what I think is going to happen, but I think the fact that you and I don't agree

• 19:34Speaker 03

  on this actually is like, maybe that's the story of like, nobody really knows, right? Is you're going to start to see the large language models say, we gotta pick our battles. Where do we go and fight to win? Because just having the general purpose model is actually not going to be as valuable because of the commoditization. And so we should accelerate into specific use cases. Anthropic recently announced that they're going to go really heavy into bio and all the biotech stuff they want to go do. It feels like they think that is a massive opportunity. If they can win there, that is trillions of dollars of value that they can create. OpenAI is saying Dots and personal assistant, and they've always been more of a consumer type company than an enterprise type company.

• 20:17Speaker 03

  And so I don't think it's just like, hey, go all in on one specific use case, but it does feel like they're now realizing that the general purpose model can serve as like a foundation, but the monetization of this and the sustainable moat is going to be in the applications. And this goes back to the idea of in crypto, if you go back to 2017 or so, there used to be this thing called the FAT protocol thesis. And the whole idea was like, all the value accrues to the protocol layer. And I could be wrong on this, but I just continue to go back to the FAT protocol thesis, the equivalent in the AI is like the FAT model lab thesis, where all the value accrues to the model lab.

• 20:56Speaker 03

  What we found in crypto was there is definitely some value that accrues to the protocol, obviously Bitcoin, Ethereum, et cetera. But actually, a ton of the value accrued to either the infrastructure underlying it in terms of miners and things like that, or the application layer. It feels like that's the same thing happening here, where as the technology gets built out, we have tons of infrastructure that's making money. We have tons of applications that are yet to be built. But I just find it really hard if like Anthropic and OpenAI just stayed as general purpose model providers. I just think that is like a cutthroat business. It's like kind of a race to zero. Who can get the, you know, highest level intelligence for the cheapest cost? And so like, what's the moat? What is the, the, you know, thing that defends against everybody else? But I don't know, maybe you think differently.

• 21:40Speaker 02

  I do.

• 21:43Speaker 02

  I don't think the application, so when you say Muse and these things, how, I, I don't understand how Muse is going to make money.

• 21:51Speaker 03

  Oh, I think they're going to print cash.

• 21:53Speaker 02

  Okay, so I don't understand how they're going to.

• 21:55Speaker 03

  Because again, the, they have a couple of decisions they need to make, but let's use Instinct as a Muse, uh, kind of proxy. What they very clearly are trying to do is they want to get as much transaction volume going through that personal agent as they can, and they think they can basically take a vig. And my guess is that they will go and start pressuring, whether it is the credit card companies, the payment processors, the merchants, et cetera, and say, hey, I'll route stuff your way, but you gotta give me something, right? So Muse or Instinct is going after a transaction based revenue model. He has said that he would like to keep it free forever.

• 22:32Speaker 03

  Facebook, they got one business model.

• 22:36Speaker 03

  Yeah. And their target is about to get way better. Right? And so whether it is actually transactions where they get paid, or the advertising is where they get paid, I worked inside that business, trust me, if you're gonna use their products and you're gonna give them more data, they're gonna get better at ads. And so to me, it's not Muse makes money as much as Facebook makes money. They just happen to own the Muse thing. And look at like WhatsApp, like that, they've started to do this across a lot of their interfaces.

• 23:06Speaker 03

  And I go back to when I opened up Instagram and I've got an interstitial at the top of my Instagram feed that's like, download Muse, they're gonna get people to download it, they're gonna get the data, then they're gonna target you.

• 23:18Speaker 02

  Did you listen to the Noah Shinar interview?

• 23:20Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 23:21Speaker 02

  Okay. When you say ads, that's, he called that the attention economy. The attention economy is going to collapse.

• 23:29Speaker 03

  Maybe.

• 23:29Speaker 02

  I, I personally, I don't, I mean, part of what's going to happen, it is very clumsy at this point to have to use your phone for your personal agent.

• 23:40Speaker 03

  Agreed.

• 23:41Speaker 02

  Okay, so that's why they're all trying to figure out the next gadget to go through.

• 23:44Speaker 03

  But by the way, I think that Instinct, which we really haven't heard Meta talk as much about this, but Instinct, he specifically, uh, he wants to monetize the transactions. And what he, his belief, which I actually agree with him on, is the agents transacting should lead to more transactions, which therefore it's like a market expanding technology for both the merchant, him, everyone kind of wins in that because the consumer also gets served.

• 24:11Speaker 03

  I think in the attention economy that you're talking about, like, yeah, if the agents are perusing or looking for something, serving a display ad in the feed of whatever is not going to be very valuable. And so is there going to be like agent to agent advertising?

• 24:28Speaker 02

  Here's the point, and this is where we can end this conversation. I only believe there's two things to focus your attention on. The toll collectors, that's crypto. As far as I'm concerned, I want the digital money guardrails, the toll collectors. I don't want, I don't want to invest in Muse and then watch as seven other agents are released. And that's before we have agents in Europe and agents in Asia. Like, this is the thing, we have competition globally. I just want toll collection and velocity. I don't want the attention economy. These are all things to me of the last 17 years. I want to bet on the things that we are always going to have demand greater than supply.

• 25:14Speaker 02

  We will not have enough compute for the agents. That is the way to play what you're describing, in my opinion. The competition, it's all going to be commoditization. The reason I say I don't agree on the Anthropic and OpenAI is because I think there's infinite amounts of money for superintelligence and they're going to have it. Open source models can never have the size of intelligence they can because they can't have the compute. All of these places, they don't have the compute. So they can keep copying, distilling the models, but at some point you need this because we won't release the best models to the market. They will go to the businesses. And that's where it can't be commoditized. So at some point, people have to realize if you have the compute, you get the best

• 25:59Speaker 02

  model. If you have the best model and it can solve all the math problems and every single science and physical place, humanoids will want that model, you don't release it to the public. And if you don't release it to the public, how do you distill all the information if it's not a public model?

• 26:14Speaker 03

  Maybe this is like the root of where we see a different world. I don't think that Claude will be able to create a model that outperforms a company. Let's say that you're a huge law firm. Let's say you're a huge finance firm. If you take open source models and you customize them via fine tuning to your specific architecture, your specific data, et cetera, you should be able to outcompete them. So again, how many businesses are going to do that? Do they have the talent? It costs money? Like, there's a lot of what ifs in there, but if that is the case, I guess that's where I get a little bit more, less enthusiastic, is just like, you can keep iterating on the model, but it's still a general purpose model.

• 26:59Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 27:00Speaker 03

  The businesses that say, hey, we're going to build custom models for ourselves, you can show up with the smartest model you want, but they're like, but it's not customized to us. And so the business is less likely to go do it. Now, I think to your point, that's a black and white analysis. What's probably going to happen is businesses are just like, give us all of it and then we'll figure out what we use and over time they'll kind of fall away, but they'll try almost everything. And that's kind of what we saw. There's a Wall Street Journal article that said, the title is, Spending on AI is Becoming Almost Impossible for Businesses to Budget, which is basically this story, right?

• 27:34Speaker 02

  And it's, it's a great one. So I, we'll leave it at this. I don't disagree at all with what you're saying. The models will not be the models behind a law firm. Those will be more open source and cheaper things. The problem is the law firm will end up being a one-person law firm and a billion of them. So if you're, like, I hear you talking and, and I think you think differently than I do in the end game, which is, I don't want to be a VC fun. Like, I don't think you can pick the winners in the world you're describing, because I believe it will always be an entrepreneur that says, I'm willing to make less.

• 28:07Speaker 03

  Hundred percent.

• 28:08Speaker 02

  And I'm going to build the business and I don't, I only need to make a hundred grand a year. So when people ask me how to, like, and this was asked to me yesterday, it's like, okay, I'm, I'm in my twenties, I want to, I want to be a part of this. I'm watching your videos. Like, okay, focus on signal versus noise. Don't listen and just keep working hard. AI is going to keep going. The alpha, as you're stacking your chips, building a poker chip, which you're getting through your job, if you don't feel like you're growing fast enough in your job, then go build an app on your own and collect 10,000 and then go build a second app, collect 10,000. Believe it or not, because of Stripe, you can do that. Like, you can create an app that competes with the world. And if you create 10 of them, they're each making 10,000 and that's $100,000.

• 28:52Speaker 02

  And at your job, you're making 115,000, then you can quit your job and go create these regularly and build up a stack and invest that money in a compounds. I met people at your event, that's what they basically do. They've made their financial wealth through investing by not listening to the bubble talk. We gotta do some bubble talk. It was a bubble week again.

• 29:13Speaker 03

  Well, why?

• 29:14Speaker 02

  I want to talk Bitcoin and bubble. I've had enough of, of tech.

• 29:17Speaker 03

  What's going, what's going on with Bitcoin?

• 29:21Speaker 03

  I think I beat him into submission. Did you just cry uncle?

• 29:25Speaker 02

  Maybe, maybe this is us. It's like us at Thanksgiving now. We were together twice this week. Maybe it's, it's.

• 29:30Speaker 03

  For those that don't know, Jordan and I tried not to talk during that week so we can come in here, but we, we had a midweek, uh, midweek session. And so, you know, we're, we're.

• 29:38Speaker 02

  It's like Thanksgiving at the Pompliano house right now. I've been a guest for two.

• 29:43Speaker 03

  All right. What, what is, uh, what's going on with Bitcoin?

• 29:46Speaker 02

  Uh, it's consolidating. No, no, no. So I, I do want to give, cause I've, a bunch of people have asked, and I, I want to make sure everyone hears this. For Christ's sake, be patient.

• 29:57Speaker 03

  Jordy, why isn't that a hundred K?

• 29:59Speaker 02

  Yeah, exactly. Um.

• 30:00Speaker 03

  Come on, it's October. What happened?

• 30:02Speaker 02

  Let me go through. I want everyone to go bring up a chart of Micron. You know, we talked about Micron when it was a hundred dollars. We talked about when it was a hundred and fifty. If you go look at 2024, we started this thing. A lot of people in your office bought, bought Micron. Should I stay in it at 200? Should I get out at 200? It went to 1400. Now, if you go back and look, it broke above the 200 day moving average, just like Bitcoin, just like Ethereum. And then it retraced back to it. It tested it. I am not sure that's going to happen with Bitcoin and Ethereum and the rest of the crowd. But you have to go look at why that happened. When it starts to happen, there's an AI theme behind it.

• 30:44Speaker 02

  I want to make sure people realize when it comes to crypto, this is 100% for me about agents. And I'm telling you, the amount of traditional people that continue to bang on my door to talk about tokenization, to talk about how to make money on this, they're doing their homework now. I think next year is going to be the year that we see the biggest moves in crypto because of agents. And so I just want people to realize that I've watched this now a lot, but in particular with the semiconductors. It took a long time when it was obvious to me because of AI, because we were going to need an enormous amount of memory. But very smart people were not on it. And right now, there are a lot of smart people running around saying we're in a bubble.

• 31:30Speaker 02

  That prevents people from jumping into anything. They see the rates going higher. Everyone should be grateful that with rates going up as much as they are, somehow another crypto went higher with gold going down as much as it has gone down. Crypto somehow has been distancing itself and going higher. So when you go through this whole thing, I, I really do believe people have to be patient with this. It's a bull market and I feel comfortable in saying that because I said when it was a bear market, we're above the 200 day moving average, the 200 day moving average is pointed upward. Just be patient. These things can never go as fast as you want. And the thing that will accelerate it the most is when the traditional finance crowd comes into it. And for that, we need the tokenization volumes to go higher.

• 32:13Speaker 02

  We need the tokenization asset size to go higher. We need the stablecoin volumes to go higher. That's why I talk so much about Stripe, because Stripe is talking about this daily. It's happening.

• 32:24Speaker 03

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• 33:05Speaker 03

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• 34:53Speaker 02

  So in the last two weeks, I have seen, uh, BlackRock, I have seen Bloomberg and also, uh, Citrini. They put out a research piece with a nice, uh, image that had DeFi on Wall Street on it. And, uh, if I did not know Citrini wrote it and I read through the, the notes of this, it could have been a Jordy Visser piece in terms of the, the main message of there's this intersection of crypto and Wall Street. I think that some people will read some of these other pieces, whether it's BlackRock, whatever, and be like, oh my God, Jordy Visser's ideas are infiltrating whatever. You said something to me interesting though, which is this is good

• 35:36Speaker 02

  because it means that like we're transitioning from almost like a contrarian view to consensus view. And you kind of need that. Can you explain a little bit as to as people see this idea show up in other places? Why that's actually a positive sign?

• 35:51Speaker 02

  When you, when you talk, so the way people view you.

• 35:57Speaker 03

  Uh-oh.

• 35:59Speaker 02

  You've been positive on Bitcoin for how many decades now?

• 36:04Speaker 03

  Well, Satoshi got the idea for me, didn't he here?

• 36:07Speaker 02

  So I don't bring that up as, as, as a dig. I bring that up as, once you kind of have this story that you say over and over again, and this works for me too. Your voice doesn't appeal to people who don't believe in you because they go, well, he's a perma bull on crypto, so it doesn't matter. So in fairness, the reason I'm saying this is if Jordy gets viewed as someone who will only be positive on Bitcoin, which isn't true.

• 36:37Speaker 03

  No, you were bearish last year.

• 36:38Speaker 02

  No, but bearish was, I, I was never bearish. What I said is we're in a bear market. Like acknowledging the facts. You can't fight the market. Like the market is the market. I believe the market knows everything. What we are trying to do is forecast what the market will think in the future. And people have to realize the only way you make money in anything that you invest in is not because you were right. It's because other people that didn't agree with you at the time came in and pushed that asset higher. At the end of the day, you are trying to bet where the money is going to go, not where the asset is going to go. So that is the problem that happens. We, I mean, salesforce.com is down, yet their earnings are good.

• 37:21Speaker 02

  So fundamentals don't matter. What's driving it? It's because people were overweight SaaS because they had a view that it was a stable business, because private credit has a lot of software. There's a bunch of reasons. So for me, we need Citrini, we need BlackRock, we need other voices to speak up. In fact, I'm going to say this right now. Jordy wants to go to as many conferences next year. That makes sense. Now, I'm saying this, you're going to help me. I've already reached out to Natalie. Like I'm going to, I'm going to get out there because I do want to sit and make sure that people hear why I'm positive on it.

• 37:52Speaker 03

  Jordy Visser World Tour?

• 37:54Speaker 02

  Yeah, I, the one thing I don't.

• 37:56Speaker 03

  And t-shirts made.

• 37:58Speaker 02

  The one thing I don't hear enough about is the connection that Citrini did, which is agents to crypto is really important. It gets back to the Marc Andreessen piece. And that's why I don't want this to be about the basement. I don't want, oh, the bonds are going down. The government's going to have to step in. I believe a year from now, it is very likely that 10-year yields will be about the same level a year from now as they are today. The only way I'll say they'll be lower is because if the jobs market gets noticeably weaker, which I don't think it will over the next year. I definitely think it's going to hover around zero. But if it got weaker, then the debasement thing will be kind of a bigger thing. But other than that, it's because we're growing so fast.

• 38:41Speaker 02

  What that means is the only thing that's driving growth is AI. It's the only thing. And so the bet becomes about AI. And I have full belief that demand is greater than supply over the course of the next few years. So the build out is going to happen. The spending is going to happen, which means nominal GDP is going to happen. I don't think the government can move rates down lower. And so if we're going to run this thing hot, that means the agentic world will continue to accelerate and that means crypto is going to do well. So I think the pieces by Citrini, by BlackRock, by everyone is very important. I think where my edge is in this whole thing is really spending the time every single day of connecting consumer agents importance

• 39:22Speaker 02

  to what's happening right now. And when you look at that chart that I've said so many times from page 71 of situational awareness, everyone should just recognize that the chaos is going to be worse next year than it is this year. What we saw this year, all of the chaos, the daily, oh, we're in a bubble, we're this. It's only going to get worse because people are overwhelmed with the speed of change and we're going to accelerate next year in speed of change.

• 39:46Speaker 03

  How do they prepare and navigate that?

• 39:52Speaker 02

  Signal versus noise is really important.

• 39:55Speaker 03

  But how do you do it?

• 39:56Speaker 02

  Okay, so this week, a very famous hedge fund manager, Ray Dalio,

• 40:03Speaker 02

  was quoted as saying,

• 40:06Speaker 02

  "Bond yields may," and I emphasize the word "may," "prick the AI bubble." So this gets a lot of attention. People send it to me and they go, "What do you think?"

• 40:17Speaker 03

  Bubble talk.

• 40:18Speaker 02

  Now, if this was said by, you know, Joe Smith on the corner.

• 40:24Speaker 03

  By me.

• 40:24Speaker 02

  Yeah. If Joe Smith got interviewed by Bloomberg and said, "I think it may prick the AI bubble," it wouldn't even, nobody would care. But because Ray Dalio said it, they care. But here's the thing. And I'll show this this weekend. Ray Dalio, if you just go into any LLM and say, "How often has Ray Dalio said there's a bubble over the last 15 years?" It's a lot. And it's not to say that he's not a smart guy. What it is to say is, he has now made a career. His, like, post-hedge fund career. He's writing books about the history of the world. He's a very smart guy in understanding the history of the world. So he's saying, "We're gonna end up in the exact same thing that we've had." And maybe we will. Maybe something will go on.

• 41:09Speaker 02

  But I think he has a thesis that he has to stick by. And he's just gonna keep doing it. And so before, it was a bubble on something else. And as I sent you something, and I'm gonna show it this weekend.

• 41:23Speaker 02

  If there was truly a bubble,

• 41:26Speaker 02

  I think if we had a pandemic, the whole market would collapse. Oh, check, we already had that. It didn't do that. We were back at new all-time highs and up for the year. Okay, well, if the Fed did the fastest rate hike in the history of the United States in an unexpected manner, we would certainly blow up this bubble of 40 trillion in debt and the whole world would collapse. We had that one. Didn't do it. Inflation hit almost 10%. Didn't do it. Okay, maybe after they were done, though, we'd see the after-effects and we'd have the biggest, fastest bank run in the history of the country. Oh, check, we had that with Silicon Valley Bank, plus all the little banks that fell too. We had deposits flowing out, and guess what? New all-time highs. Maybe if we decided to go back to Smoot-Hawley

• 42:12Speaker 02

  and we announced massive tariffs around the globe,

• 42:16Speaker 02

  that would do it. Okay, we fell 20%, then we rallied back to new all-time highs. Finally, this one, there's no way you can stop. Because those were all kind of easy ones for the Fed to print money out of, so you could think that they were gonna print money. What about if we shut down the Strait of Hormuz? Oil would go to 200, 300, 400, 500, and we would, well, we had that this year, can't print money. And yet somehow or another, the market found a way to go higher. So now the new one is, rates are gonna do it. So I think people have to just understand, the way markets work, we've had new all-time highs many, many times during my career. And there's been many, many bad things that have happened. And there may be another 20, 30% correction next year.

• 43:01Speaker 02

  And it might be because rates get to such a high level that we end up with, I don't know, a bunch of businesses that we didn't know had a lot of debt in Europe, in wherever, that end up collapsing. I don't know. But I also know that if that happens, the governments have financialized everything, so they will come in, just like they did after Silicon Valley Bank, and make sure that they put money into the system to make it not go down. A pandemic took trillions, and they did that. I don't know what other people want to do. So I think when you listen to these bubble talks, particularly when it comes to AI, the way to navigate, watch my video. I am showing facts about the demand versus supply. I am gonna show why Ray Dalio's conversation, although maybe true,

• 43:46Speaker 02

  it's just the headline that he's put out there. The alpha, which names are working? I'm literally gonna go through and say, okay, almost nothing has worked. Nothing. Over the course of the last decade, very few companies have made money. If you go back to ChatGPT, only 24% of the companies in the S&P 1500, so 1500 companies, only 25% have produced a return greater than the index as a whole. 25%. So it's very concentrated. Guess what? We've been concentrated for a long time with the MAG7. If you're trying to make money, you need to know the things that are working. The only thing that I think you can make money on with the highest probability of certainty is things related to building out the compute, because we don't have enough of it and we're gonna continue to build it out.

• 44:32Speaker 02

  On the other side, I think you need crypto. So the alpha I'm trying to give, and then finally, the best way to feel empowered is to learn how to use AI. If that's what's causing the problems, and that's where the biggest fear is, if you want to make sure that you know more than Ray Dalio, trust me, he doesn't sit on an LLM all day. So go build something, upload it to GitHub. You have something over Ray Dalio that he doesn't know about today's world. So the agency side, the empowering side, is very important too.

• 44:58Speaker 03

  I could not agree more. What are you gonna do your video on this week?

• 45:01Speaker 02

  I just kind of did it. It's a bunch of that stuff. We just talked about it, but in more detail, and seriously, I enjoy doing this. I had a great time with the group that I saw, and I'm not kidding. For people that, in the crypto community, that are having big conferences, where you have a lot of people, where you think I can add some value, I'm going to go to a lot of them next year. And before my calendar fills up with things for you and for other people that have first dibs, I would like to be in a position where I can go to places and talk. I think the most important time, to get back to your thing about Satriani, BlackRock, Joseph Chalam, William McGuire, whoever you listen to right now, the voices are getting louder and louder on crypto.

• 45:43Speaker 02

  I think making sure that people have a chance to hear this and understand it and learn from it is really important. So I think the next 12 months is something I regret with the Micron thing of not really explaining to people, but I didn't have a big enough audience. Now I have a big enough audience. I want to make sure that as many people as possible hear our show, but they also learn about the importance of crypto.

• 46:03Speaker 03

  The Jordi Visser World Tour begins January 1st, 2027. Book him now, before his availability is out. By the way, did you know that I'll never ask you to go anywhere other than in New York City, because I don't go anywhere for any event? Like, if we do an event, it has to be in New York City, because I don't want to travel.

• 46:23Speaker 02

  I wish I had a video for everyone to see that you and I passed each other in DC, where you didn't tell me you were gonna be there, and it was literally not a joke. You were going out of turnstile, I was coming in a turnstile.

• 46:35Speaker 03

  High-fived, and kept walking. And by the way, he was going, and Jordi's an amateur when it comes to conference attendance. He was there for like two days. I went down on the train in the morning, did my 15-minute talk, and went right back.

• 46:48Speaker 02

  I had the best time I've had an event with those people in DC.

• 46:53Speaker 03

  They were great. I had to come back for other reasons. But I have one last thing, a surprise for you. Did I hear that you read some of the chapters of my new book?

• 47:03Speaker 02

  Yes, I did.

• 47:03Speaker 03

  The book is so good that I made Jordi read. Just think about that. That's all the ad you need. It got Jordi Visser to read a book.

• 47:11Speaker 02

  It's really not a book. It's very similar to a book that I love, The Daily Stoic, because it's just passages. So I can read like a page, I can read a page a week.

• 47:23Speaker 03

  They're letters, so they're like two pages long, and there's 50 of them. But I just, I figured, what's the best ad that I could make? Just, the book's so good Jordi Visser read it.

• 47:35Speaker 02

  And I love reading about spinach, so it's fine.

• 47:38Speaker 03

  The devil doesn't tempt you with spinach. All right, thank you all for watching. We'll see you guys next week.

• 47:43Speaker 02

  See ya.