Bitcoin’s Rally Today Just Confirmed Everything | Anthony & John Pompliano

Anthony & John Pompliano discuss the state of bitcoin at $64,000, why the price has stabilized, and what it will take to spark the next bull run. They also break down the exploding cost of AI adoption inside businesses, the national debt problem no president seems willing to fix, and where investors should be putting their capital right now. ====================== Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates investment strategies across Stocks, Commodities, ETFs and Crypto. Whether you’re rotating into AI & Gold, allocating to the S&P 500, or accumulating Bitcoin, Arch Public executes your plan 24/7 without ever taking custody of your assets or funds. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com, and start your FREE automated trading strategy! ====================== Uphold is the easiest way to buy and sell crypto unlike any other platform allowing you to trade in just one step between any supported asset. Check them out at https://www.uphold.com/pomp/This video includes a paid sponsorship with Uphold. I’m compensated by Uphold for promoting its products and services and may receive commissions from referrals. Terms apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Digital assets are risky and may result in the total loss of your capital. ====================== 0:00 - Intro0:35 - Bitcoin at $64K, catalysts & future returns7:58 - Why every industry needs "bitcoiners"12:20 - National debt, government spending & why nothing changes17:24 - How much businesses are spending on AI20:30 - How to evaluate if AI is giving you ROI21:29 - Stocks, equities & conviction on AI23:16 - Year-end outlook

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• 1:00Speaker 02

  Bitcoin does not need a narrative. I think that is probably one of my biggest takeaways over the last decade or so is Bitcoin just needs to continue to produce block after block after block of transactions, and they just need the government to be dumb and keep printing money. As long as the government keeps printing money, Bitcoin will go up. What's going on, guys? Today, we've got a great conversation with John Papaliano. He interviews me, and he's got some big, hard-hitting questions. In this conversation, we talk about artificial intelligence stocks. What's going on with Bitcoin? Why is the price so stable? Then we even talk about what I'm excited about through the end of the year, how I'm thinking about the government printing so much money, and much, much more in this conversation. So here's my latest conversation with John Pompliano. Let's go, John. Let's hit it.

• 1:37Speaker 03

  Let's hit it. What's going on with Bitcoin? 64,000? Wall Street's bullish?

• 1:41Speaker 02

  Bitcoin's stable. I mean, that's what people want, right? They want a stable store of value. So why is everyone so upset?

• 1:47Speaker 03

  Because that's 64,000.

• 1:48Speaker 02

  It came down 50%. But yeah, it's just chilling, right in the mid 60s. Look, I think that most people are trying to figure out why is Bitcoin not going up, or why it's not going down more. Remember, there's a lot of folks who were predicting that Bitcoin's going to draw down 85% in a bear market like it's done in the past. But to me, I actually think that Bitcoin's kind of hanging out around where you would have expected. One of the best things I ever heard anyone say going into this bear market was Matthew Siegel over at VanEck. He said, "If volatility has fallen 50%, then the price of Bitcoin should probably draw down about 50% of what the normal drawdowns are." And that's where we kind of ended up, you know, ballpark. And so I know everyone wants it to go back up,

• 2:27Speaker 02

  but what has changed about the story of Bitcoin from six months ago to today? Not much, right? The Clarity Act, which everyone's all worried about, right? That's not clear or passed. There really hasn't been a change in terms of net new buyers coming into the market. If you go and you look at the macroeconomic environment, not much there has changed either. I mean, there was slight uptick in inflation. It came back down. Then you go and you look at, they're still printing money. They were printing money before. They're still printing money now. And so it comes back to like, there has to be some sort of catalyst. Now, the good thing for Bitcoin is that there's always going to be a catalyst within four years because you've got the halving. And so you'll get kind of this supply shock where

• 3:10Speaker 02

  you will cut the number of Bitcoin coming into the overarching supply by 50%. Okay, that's good. But is there some sort of environment-type catalyst? Right now, there's not a lot of people who see any sort of catalyst that's coming. And I understand that people are, you know, antsy, but just chill. Bitcoin has a sense of doing what Bitcoin does. It'll go up over a very long period of time. The future return of Bitcoin, I think, is going to be much lower than people have previously experienced. So I don't think it's going to compound at 60, 70% year over year for a decade. I think that it's probably 20% to 30%. And so there's a lot of people saying to themselves, "Okay, hold on a second. AI's hot, and I'm making a lot of money over there, so let me move capital, let me chase returns." Then you've got a lot of companies that are saying, "Hey, I could go buy Bitcoin, or I

• 3:55Speaker 02

  could just grow my business more than 30% every year." And so Bitcoin's got to kind of find a bid, right? And obviously, having BlackRock and others excited about it, that's good. But ultimately, you're going to need a catalyst to get this thing going in the other direction.

• 4:08Speaker 03

  Yeah. So one thing I wanted to really point out was, BlackRock, in one of their statements, said Bitcoin has exhibited a dual personality, talking about how it's both safe haven, but then at other times, trading with the risk assets. How do you determine the Bitcoin narrative right now? Is it really a safe haven, and that's where pensions and 401Ks should be looking at it? Or is this something that you think will obviously have that 20, 30% appreciation every year for the next 10 years?

• 4:33Speaker 02

  As someone who's paid a lot of attention and known what the different narratives are at different times, and been pretty involved in the minutia of how that has shifted, there's really only one narrative that matters. If they print money, Bitcoin will go up over a long period of time. Everything in the short term is noise, and I think that individuals and businesses have to decide. If I have capital that is on my balance sheet or my bank account, where do I allocate it? Where do I put a dollar? And there are some people who are saying, "I need 1%, 5%, 10% allocation of Bitcoin." A lot of those people already have that allocation, right? And so then they're going and they're looking for other areas. There's other people who I would put in the hardcore Bitcoiner category. They're saying, "I need to buy as many Bitcoin as I possibly can." And they just denominate

• 5:15Speaker 02

  it in Bitcoin that constantly are accumulating. And then there's a third bucket that I would still put in the cautiously skeptical or cautiously optimistic bucket, right? They're trying to figure out, like, "I understand it. Maybe it's not for me, or maybe I'm not super excited about it. But man, the government, you know, it's over $40 trillion of national debt now. That seems like a pretty big number. How do we handle this?" And so I think that it's kind of different flavors for different people, right? But ultimately, Bitcoin does not need a narrative. I think that is probably one of my biggest takeaways over the last decade or so is Bitcoin just needs to continue to produce block after block after block of transactions, and they just need the government to be dumb and keep printing money. As long as the government keeps printing money, Bitcoin will go up. But again, I do not think the rate of return is going to be nearly as high as we have experienced in the past. Still,

• 6:00Speaker 02

  a 20 or 30% return is going to outperform the stock market, right, given its historical performance. But I think people are just trying to figure out, "How much of my capital should I allocate to Bitcoin versus other things?" And that answer is very personal for each business or individual. And I think that's what people are going to end up kind of making decisions around.

• 6:18Speaker 03

  Ultimately, though, you need these portfolio managers, right, to kind of get involved in the institutional capital more than just the retail?

• 6:25Speaker 02

  Maybe, right? Like, if you think about it, institutions buying the ETF is great. There was a bunch of capital that flowed in, but the ETF's got approved, and Bitcoin today is sitting at the same price it was five years ago. So did the ETF have an impact? Sure, it ran up to 126,000. It's pulled down 50%. And so there's a lot of people who say, "Oh, well, the next leg up," right? Again, it goes back to, it depends on what you think the future return of Bitcoin looks like, and where does the net new buyer come from? Where does the catalyst come from? Again, I'm not bearish on Bitcoin by any means, right? If anything, it's better to buy Bitcoin at $65,000 than it is at 125,000. But I just think that when you look over the next six to 10, 12 months, the question becomes, where

• 7:09Speaker 02

  is the net new buyer going to come from? And you need a net new buyer in order to go and create that catalyst, because if not, then you're going to be waiting for the halving to occur. And then usually, the market peaks 18 months after that. So you've got to wait all the way until the halving, and then you've got to wait another, you know, six to 12 months before you really get into, you know, kind of the next bull market. It's a lot of time between now and then that people are going to have to figure out.

• 7:31Speaker 03

  Okay. So let's talk about what investors are probably doing with their money. 30-year Treasury just hit 19-year all-time high. Across the world, we're seeing Treasuries continue to hit all-time highs for different nations. Is the Treasury a good buy right now? Is the 60, 40?

• 7:45Speaker 02

  Depends on what you're optimizing for. If you're looking for capital appreciation, no, absolutely not, right? Of course not. If you're looking for interest in terms of you need short-term interest, then yeah, pays 3.7% or whatever is in short-term Treasuries. I think that there's some people who say, "Well, I actually want to have cash exposure, but earn a little interest while I'm doing it." Okay, then Treasuries become a really interesting thing. But if you're like, "Hey, should I buy stocks, or should I buy Treasuries? I'm going to hold them for 20 years." Like, of course, you should buy stocks, right? So I think that it really is just, what are you optimizing for? And by optimizing, you may actually go and make a different decision. And look, a big part of this is, I think there's a lot of companies right now that are trying to figure out, "How do I use these

• 8:29Speaker 02

  various assets? How do I use real cash? How do I use stable coins? How do I use Treasuries? How do I use potentially tokenized Treasury funds? How do I use Bitcoin? How do I use, you know, these different kind of technologies and have it serve the purpose of the company?" And I think one of the things that people, you know, kind of get confused is, not every individual or every company should be focused on just acquire as much Bitcoin as possible because there's a lot of stuff that could work or not work, but...

• 9:00Speaker 02

  Ultimately, we do need people and companies working on other things. And so I always say that what we want is we want Bitcoiners who are in every industry. It is valuable to the world and to Bitcoin to have Bitcoiners who work in oil fields. It's valuable to have Bitcoiners who are doctors. It's valuable to have Bitcoiners who maybe run a food company or who build homes or who work in an investment firm, or you know, maybe they are a school teacher. Having the Bitcoin mentality and values and ethos and all that stuff embodied in all of those different industries. It is net positive for Bitcoin as well, right? I think that Bitcoin is obviously a financial asset, but it's also an idea. And it has a certain viewpoint of the world.

• 9:41Speaker 02

  And so, you know, if you get on the, you know, X or something, you'll see people talking about fiat food. Like, that's kind of like a Bitcoin or perspective on food. And so, wouldn't it be helpful to have some people who are maybe like, you know, the seed oil thing? Like, I don't know, maybe we shouldn't have seed oils. And you can see this, like, um, who is it? Is it, uh, In-N-Out? Um, I think is a, uh,

• 10:01Speaker 03

  The Tallow.

• 10:02Speaker 02

  Yeah, but they're a big Bitcoiners. I think they have Bitcoin on their balance sheet and stuff, right? But like, you see the Bitcoin mentality ethos and perspective showing up now in the product they serve to people using Tallow rather than the seed oil. I'm not some like grand conspiracy theorist around seed oil. It seems to be unhealthy for you compared to other things. Okay, great, like, it wasn't there. Americans got overly obese on, in general, compared to other countries. And so, if we can shift that back, like, yeah, sure, the financial asset Bitcoin going up helps a lot of people. But also, I don't know, ripping out seed oils from a lot of stuff also helps a lot of people, right? If you have a doctor who says, hey, maybe we shouldn't be in the business of being reactive

• 10:43Speaker 02

  to what goes on in your life, instead, maybe we should do preventative, you know, medicine or preventative care. And you know what would be really great? Maybe you shouldn't eat all those carbs and processed foods. Maybe you should eat more meat and protein. That's kind of a Bitcoin or perspective, right? Maybe you should work out. Maybe you should go out in the sun, right? We can go through all these different things. And so I think that's another piece of this is, uh, we as an industry have to be encouraging of different people who have different perspectives or different, uh, kind of focuses with their time, energy, talent and money. But also understand that the perspective or the, the, the kind of viewpoint of Bitcoiners is permeating throughout society. And if you just look, like, I would argue that the Bitcoin or perspective really forced the hand of politicians in DC.

• 11:28Speaker 02

  Because three things happened. There was a massive pack of crypto money that was very influential in the 2024 election cycle. You have a current administration that seems to be very pro Bitcoin. There's some people who are disappointed that, hey, they're not buying Bitcoin hand over fist or whatever. But like, generally, they have been more pro Bitcoin than definitely last administration. And then the third is the last administration and kind of the left-leaning parties. They're starting to realize, wait a second, we should probably become sympathetic to this. We should encourage this because the people want it. And so you can see like the certain perspective, the certain, you know, viewpoint really permeated politics. And people kind of had to get on board or get out of the way, right? And so I think that you're going to start seeing this in a lot of different industries.

• 12:11Speaker 02

  Again, very small anecdotal examples today, but over time, you know, it only heads in one direction. Today's episode is brought to you by Arch Public. Arch Public has just expanded its agentic trading platform beyond crypto. So pay attention, this is a big one. Now they are automating strategies across stocks, commodities and ETFs. And I think that this is going to be huge. You can now automatically take profits when one market hits new all-time highs and rotate that capital into other markets showing more opportunity. Whether you're rotating capital into AI stocks, gold, if you're investing in the S and P 500, or you're accumulating Bitcoin. Arch Public brings real discipline and automation to your investment strategy. Additionally, they've launched a powerful new tax loss harvesting tool. With crypto being so volatile and its exemption from the wash sale rule,

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• 13:22Speaker 03

  All right, so inflation is still up. Sean Frank, uh, the CEO of Ridge recently reshared one of Rivers' graphs. It's essentially every president over time over the last, uh, 10 or so. And the national debt that has increased under their administration. It slowly just gets steeper and steeper. Does this train ever stop?

• 13:42Speaker 02

  Well, obviously not, but I think what it tells you is even the presidents who have come in and said, hey, we're going to cut spending. We're going to balance the budget, all this kind of stuff, like, it is not up to one single president. It's not up to one single, uh, administration or even, I would say, you know, one Congress, right? These people cannot stop. They literally cannot put the genie back in the bottle. And so I, more so than anyone I know, yell and scream all the time. National debt's too high, the interest expense now on the national debt is too high. We are just blowing out the national debt. They're going to debase the currency, you know, they're going to hurt all the people without investment assets. All that stuff's true. No one's going to do anything different about it. So you can yell and scream all you want, or you can go do something about it, right? It's the difference between competing versus complaining.

• 14:22Speaker 02

  And the reason why I, you know, maybe have kind of thrown my hands up and said, well, they're not going to do anything about it. Is because I think, one, this administration came in with Doge and all this stuff. And whether you believe they were actually trying to do it or not is almost besides the point. There was more effort than not or than usual to try to cut government spending. And even if you don't like their tactics, at least you got to respect the like, you know, thought process. I mean, just didn't work, right? And some of it was because there was fight internally from politicians. Some of it frankly was like, oh, we just owe a lot of money to, you know, people from social security and Medicaid and Medicare. And like, we know there's fraud, but what are we going to do about it, right? Type, uh, type thing. By the way, there was an immense amount of fraud, obviously.

• 15:05Speaker 02

  And then I also think that there's this element of, uh, you kind of get into, uh, these negotiations. And when you see these things play out, all this pork gets added to these bills. And my understanding of it is basically people are horse trading. Fine, I'll sign on to your bill, but give my constituents a billion dollars, right? Cause we're going to do this, you know, program or we're going to do whatever. And like, of course, if you're horse trading and you're using someone else's money, you want a billion, why not two billion? I'll give you two billion, fine, vote for my bill. Like, that's what goes on. And so it comes back to it's never going to change. They're all incentivized to do this. They know that somebody long from now is going to pay for that bill. And they're probably not even going to be in office anymore to, you know, even, uh, have to deal with those consequences. And you can go back.

• 15:49Speaker 02

  Do you hear anyone stopping George H W Bush, Bill Clinton, George Bush, or even Obama? And saying, you screwed up the national debt? No, now they do, the people critique them all the time. Some people, you know, they don't like them or they don't like their politics or their party or whatever. But like, I've never seen anyone stop one of them and be like, I remember, hey, Clinton, in the nineties, you blew out the budget.

• 16:14Speaker 03

  Well, that's because they all point to the guy before him and say, that's what he did.

• 16:17Speaker 02

  The last balanced budget I think was in the late nineties, if I remember correctly, right? But like Bush, Obama, both sides of the aisle, everyone is contributing to this, Trump, Biden, all of them. But it's kind of like, eh, we got this problem. Who's responsible? It's like kind of all of you, right? And it's not even the president. Then it's like, well, it was the president plus the administration, plus, you know, the House, plus, uh, Senate, blah, blah, blah. And so it's just kind of like, uh, uh, you can't attack one person because it's the blob. So I think they all, you know, kind of know, like, eh, no one's going to really say anything about this 10 years from now.

• 16:56Speaker 02

  Which, you know, hey, maybe we as Americans should be much more, you know, upset about it and much more direct with them about it. But I think that most Americans have kind of, uh, resigned themselves to the fact it's never going to get budgeted or something to get balanced. I was excited. I thought that the Trump administration had a good shot at doing it. So I thought, bring in the number one cost saver in the world. If you were going to create the like Megatron of saving, it's Elon Musk ripping out inefficiencies. All, look where we are, right? And so it's just like, uh, yeah, man, train doesn't stop. Let's see what happens.

• 17:27Speaker 03

  Commended for picking up the soda can instead of kicking it, but then putting it back down and continue to kick it.

• 17:31Speaker 02

  And punting it.

• 17:32Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 17:33Speaker 02

  It's like you can kick it on the ground, right? That, that would be like, all right, you're just kicking the can. But if you pick it up and then you punt it, I mean, it depends. Maybe it goes further, maybe it doesn't, right? You don't really know, but it's, uh, uh, yeah, look, again, I think that we should absolutely commend the politicians for saying, hey, you know, that's what I want to do. But it kind of like results speak louder than words, right? And by the way, I always go through the exercise of, let's say you and I, the, uh, Pomp Brothers ended up as president and vice president, United States of America. We were going to stop this, we're going to, you know, balance the budget. What would we do any different?

• 18:09Speaker 02

  I don't know, maybe we have some good idea. Maybe we would do a bunch of work and we'd figure out some ideas to how to balance the budget. I just don't see, you know, a path, given the information that we have today, where it is going to actually get balanced. And so, dollar get devalued and let's roll.

• 18:25Speaker 03

  All right, let's keep it on a roll. Let's talk about AI spending within organizations. The top 1% of businesses spend about $7,500, just under $7,500 per employee per month on AI, per employee per month on AI in July, very big number. But obviously, the smaller organizations spend less than that, right? So the top 10% of organizations are closer to $500.

• 18:47Speaker 03

  Do you think that there is a correlation between spending per employee on AI and results that you get from the technology?

• 18:54Speaker 02

  They're saying $7,500 per month?

• 18:56Speaker 03

  Per employee per month, the top 1% of businesses.

• 18:59Speaker 02

  Oh, top 1%, okay, yeah. So, you know, maybe there's a couple hundred businesses or thousand businesses that does that. Sure. I think the average business, let's just kind of anecdotally go off of averages. I think that the average business is probably paying for two or three subscriptions on AI, depending on what their business is. You know, they may have something like a ChatGPT, a Claude, etc. They may use some sort of creative tools like a Higgs field or something like that. And then they probably have some sort of industry-specific thing. If you're in legal, you're using Harvey. If you're in finance, you're using Sylvia, CFO Sylvia.com, go check it out, right? And so you're trying to use kind of a different tool for the different industry. But let's just say that you max out all of that, right?

• 19:40Speaker 02

  Okay, what is it? Maybe it is 200 bucks per month per user? 600 bucks, 800 bucks, you know what I mean? So 7,500 seems really, really high.

• 19:49Speaker 03

  Agreed.

• 19:49Speaker 02

  But by the way, if you're even spending five grand a year per employee, well, what's your average, you know, salary? I mean, that is an immediate cost increase for the business. Now, why are they doing it? Because they're, obviously, they think they're getting ROI, right? Or they believe they're going to get ROI. And so that's why you see the ARR or these companies skyrocketing, is because businesses in particular, and individuals, but mostly businesses, are saying, hey, I think I can get an ROI here. Let me go sink money into it and see, see what we can get. Today's episode is brought to you by Uphold. Are you someone who's tired of juggling multiple apps just to trade, earn, stake, or spend your crypto? Then listen up, because Uphold does all of that in one single unified platform. You can access 300-plus crypto and

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• 21:25Speaker 03

  If you were a small business owner today, how would you evaluate that AI is giving you a positive ROI?

• 21:30Speaker 02

  I am a small business owner, big dog. Um, I think, and a big business owner, just to clear the record. Um, the, the way that I would think about it is, I want to see directly attributable impact. So, there's some people who are just like, I don't know, man, it seems, you know, all my friends are doing it, whatever. That's not how I operate. I want to understand, what are we spending? What do we think that the return on that investment is? Now, you may tell me, I can't draw a straight line from I use this product to revenue. Okay, well, that's not a good start. But you may then say, but I can draw a straight line from I use this product and I saved three hours this week. Okay, I can work with that, right? Because that freed up three hours, maybe you can go do something else. That's kind of an indirect line, just cost savings, time savings, whatever. Okay, fine. So that's

• 22:15Speaker 02

  really what I would look for is, one, what's the revenue impact? But then, two, is what are the savings? Either time, energy, money, etc. And then I would put that together in a full picture and say to myself, all right, what's, what's the deal here? How do we continue to, to invest in this and get an ROI?

• 22:29Speaker 03

  All right. Let's talk about stocks and equities for a minute.

• 22:32Speaker 02

  Higher.

• 22:33Speaker 03

  Just continue going higher? Is it a similar thesis to Bitcoin, where as long as they print money, you know, general equities will go up?

• 22:40Speaker 02

  Long-term stocks are going up forever, because they're never going to stop printing money. So that's definitely long-term. But in the short term, like, are you, do you have more conviction today on AI or less than you did five months ago?

• 22:51Speaker 03

  Conviction in, in what manner?

• 22:52Speaker 02

  Just the AI industry being a thing, being used, being around, etc.

• 22:55Speaker 03

  I have more conviction today than I had.

• 22:57Speaker 02

  Okay, because, because you have, you know, at least half a brain, probably a full brain, right?

• 23:00Speaker 03

  Hope so.

• 23:01Speaker 02

  The people who are like, AI is a zero, like, these people are moronic. Like, what are they talking about, right? But again, hey, what do I know? I'm not some genius. They are, supposedly. And I think that's why these stocks have bids, is because people are realizing, dude, these things are going to keep going up, because there are three things that I use as a framework. The first is their shortages. So if you have a shortage, meaning you have more demand than supply, guess what? Prices go up. If prices go up, then stocks go up. Okay. Second thing is that there is massive asymmetry. Some of these markets are still very small, but they're going to become very big over time. Great, there's a huge opportunity there. And then the third thing is that there is inefficiencies getting ripped out. People are applying these tools and they're actually making things more efficient. Well, that's going to rip as well. So I just think that people need

• 23:45Speaker 02

  to, you know, relax a little bit and let's see what happens. But I, I just, I don't see a world where we're anywhere near bubble territory, yet. There will be a bubble at some point, I'm sure. But that's fine. If you bought things in the mid 90s, for the most part, if you bought good companies, went through the bubble, they crashed, and then they continued, and a lot of them are still around. Not every single one of them, but a lot of them are still around. Like, it'd been a good idea to buy Nvidia. It would have been a good idea to buy a lot of this stuff. Amazon, whatever. So let's see.

• 24:16Speaker 03

  Okay. Uh, let's talk about end-of-the-year predictions. What are you excited about towards the end of the year?

• 24:23Speaker 02

  I'm excited about hanging out with you. I'm excited about doing this podcast. I'm excited about BRR and what we're doing with Sylvia. I think that Sylvia is still drastically underestimated, which I love being, is whenever people underestimate something that we're doing. And then frankly, I'm excited that, uh, I truly believe the more people who use these technologies, Bitcoin, AI, etc., the better their lives will be on a net basis over the long run. And so the more adoption, the more the people are using this stuff, I think is great. And it doesn't come without risk. There's not trade, you know, of course, there's trade-offs, whatever, but I think generally it's a net positive. And so I'm very excited to see kind of how that stuff happens. And, um, let's see, uh, let's see if the money printer stays warm. I think, uh, it will. I think it'll actually accelerate.

• 25:08Speaker 02

  And so, assets, I think, will, uh, keep going.

• 25:12Speaker 03

  I would like it for my portfolio, and I hope if you don't have any investable assets, anyone listening to this, to go get some, because I generally agree with your take there.

• 25:19Speaker 02

  I, I agree. Thanks for doing this.

• 25:21Speaker 03

  No problem.