Pod Insights The Pomp Podcast #1546 Jordi Visser | Bitcoin’s Price Is About to SHOCK Everyone - Here’s Why About this episode Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos. In this conversation we discuss a potential bitcoin short squeeze, current macro environment, public vs private markets, trade deals, inflation, AI, and where he sees opportunity.=======================Figure Markets is where crypto meets real-world finance. Trade 24/7 with speed and transparency, borrow against your crypto with no credit checks, and earn—all on-chain. Stocks and real estate trading are coming soon, giving you 24/7 access and instant settlement. It’s the best of TradFi and DeFi in one platform. Get started today at https://www. Figure.com/pomp! Disclosures: https://www.figuremarkets.com/disclosures/=======================Core is the leading Bitcoin scaling solution, enabling you to lock in yield by locking up your Bitcoin. Simply lock it on the Bitcoin blockchain to secure the Core network, and get rewards. No bridging. No lending. Just holding. Still your keys. Still your coins. Now your yield. Start at https://stake.coredao.org/pomp=======================Pomp writes a daily letter to over 265,000+ investors about business, technology, and finance. He breaks down complex topics into easy-to-understand language while sharing opinions on various aspects of each industry. You can subscribe at https://pomp.substack.com/=======================View 10k+ open startup jobs:https://dreamstartupjob.com/Enroll in my Crypto Academy: https://www.thecryptoacademy.io/
Transcript Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.
0:02 Anthony Pompliano? What's up everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Many of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them for hours while I ask questions in an effort to learn. So it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform, watch episodes on YouTube, and tell your friends and family about the podcast. My goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode. What's going on guys? Today we have an excellent episode with Jordy Visser. Jordy's got 30 years on Wall Street. And so when he tells you that a potential short squeeze is about to happen, you've got to sit down, get your coffee, open up your ears and take a listen, because that's exactly what he's about to talk about. He's going to explain
0:45 Anthony Pompliano? why he thinks that a short squeeze in Bitcoin and commodities is possible, what that means, how it would work, what the macro backdrop, all these trade deals, interest rate cuts, currency manipulations going on around the world. And then we even talk about where he's seeing opportunity, whether that's AI, Bitcoin, crypto, hardware, or something else. So make sure you listen to the full thing. These are unique thoughts you're not going to find anywhere else. Jordy's amazing, and I hope you guys enjoy our latest conversation with Jordy Visser.
1:09 Speaker 01 Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only.
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3:42 Anthony Pompliano? All right, Jordan, I thought a great place to start this conversation is this idea of like a commodity short squeeze. And I think people quite don't understand, like very asymmetric violent moves in assets and how they can come together. So what are you seeing here that's giving you the sense that this could be kind of setting up?
3:59 Speaker 02 Yeah, this is, uh, this is an important thing. As, as a derivative person my whole life, one of the more interesting conversations I had with someone who, uh, who I'll refer to on, on this podcast, the same way I've referred to him in Substack, I'll call him Dr. X. Okay. Highlighted to me the asymmetric, the asymmetric pricing or the, the strange pricing in Bitcoin calls versus puts. And the first time I saw this, uh, I was looking at the Deribit exchange, which as of this week was, there's a takeover by Coinbase. And it's a big story. But what I looked at was that, just for example, with a hundred thousand
4:39 Speaker 02 as the price for spot Bitcoin, uh, out to September, so we're talking four months, you, a $30,000 out of the money call was close to $5,000, close, yeah, close to $5,000. While a put at 70,000 was close to $1,700. So in equity markets, you typically get this skew where the higher the prices, lower the vol. In this case, there's a variety of factors that, uh, that fit in with the Bitcoin, which makes the Bitcoin option market unique. But what really scares me about this is that as an equity person, and you see that, you can buy spot Bitcoin and you can sell 30% out of the money calls and you can collect
5:23 Speaker 02 what's effectively higher than the Fed funds rate for just four and change months, which means on an annualized basis, whether it's the calls or the futures, they're trading at a really big premium to spot price, which means you're going to get a lot of people that are willing to kind of sell options on this. So one of my beliefs overall has been that Bitcoin is not a currency, it's not an equity. So when people call it a risk asset or they call it currency, I'm like, it's not that. It's kind of a hybrid. Thing, it has a finite amount. And this is what's different with the Fiat thing. This is what Michael Saylor talks about. This is what makes it interesting. So the upside can be asymmetric. You can get short squeezes. And I believe what we're going to see this year at some point is a period where someone gets caught
6:05 Speaker 02 short, primarily because of the option stuff and where these calls are priced, but also not recognizing how fast this thing can move to the upside where the vol can be extremely, it can move very, very quickly. And the reason I think it is going to happen is because there's a lot of miners that seem to overwrite their calls. This is a production related thing, and it reminds me of what happened to nickel in 2022, where we had this massive spike in nickel. So it actually this year will probably look more like a commodity at some point where people have to come in to cover their, the calls that they've shorted against it. So I think it's going to happen this year.
6:42 Anthony Pompliano? When people hear short squeeze, they think huge asymmetry, hundreds of percent of upside. How significant or severe do you think that the upside movement in a short squeeze of Bitcoin, given its size now of a couple trillion dollars? Like, what does that look like?
6:59 Speaker 02 So here's the issue on a short squeeze.
7:03 Speaker 02 Going on X and just reading how many people are involved in this market and think of GameStop and all these situations. I think Bitcoin fits in with these kind of, it has this huge community following. And if people believe that someone has caught short, I think it can get extremely violent. Now, once it's done, you'll get a pullback, obviously, but at some point here, I think you're going to get a big move. Michael Saylor has done one thing to, to Bitcoin through the micro strategy convert market. He's brought a lot of short options out there in terms of people are now long a bunch. So there's gamma out there. So it's longer dated. All that means is we can get an asymmetric move and then it will come back. But I think we're going to see it because I think the community will feel the short squeeze.
7:46 Speaker 02 They'll be pressuring it and there'll be a story floating around. So I think at some point this year Bitcoin will be a front page news story as to how it's gone higher on a short squeeze.
7:54 Anthony Pompliano? Now, as this occurs, we obviously see lots of public companies. That are now starting to buy Bitcoin. We see a lot of private companies trying to become public companies. But one of the areas that I don't hear a lot of people talking about, but I think is very interesting. I know that you've been paying attention to strategy and what's going on there. Or these like income generating funds or these yield type funds. I think the strategy one is MSTY, if I remember correctly. And I see some chatter online of very high yields being paid out. But there's always the concern of these like NAV erosion, you know, type situations. And so how do you look at the equities of these Bitcoin treasury companies versus maybe what I'll call like the derivatives or kind of the things built
8:37 Anthony Pompliano? on top of them that are optimizing for different things depending on what the fund or the instrument is?
8:43 Speaker 02 So number one, I think they're healthy. And the reason I say I think they're healthy, they're bringing, they're creating structures that'll bring more people slowly into it. I saw one, I believe it's Calamos. They've offered an ETF that is one year. It's principal protected. So worst case scenario, you get your money back. You participate in Bitcoin up to, I'm gonna say 12%. Like I said, the futures are trading at a premium. So if you buy spot Bitcoin and you sell the futures out front, you can get anywhere from 15 to 20% depending on the time period. So I think this is allowing people through creativity to bring people into the market. And again, it gets into, you have to be more worried about an asymmetric
9:27 Speaker 02 upside than downside in this. Everyone has always been more worried about the asymmetric downside. I think what these products are doing is taking advantage of the asymmetric pricing that's up there, bringing structures that fit insurance companies that fit, I mean, whether Michael does a, you know, a perp, whatever he wants to go through, he's trying to figure out different structures that allow people to invest in it, where he can raise fiat money and then turn it back into Bitcoin. So I think this is going to continue. I don't think the structures necessarily are as interesting at this point as the corporate balance sheet side, just from a, if people get a chance, strategy, he spoke at
10:06 Speaker 02 At MicroStrategy's earnings release, the annual report, and I think it's an important listen. In fact, if you get the chance, if you watch that one, and just listen to what he's saying about the competition, how much the Mag7 have dominated, how the majority of companies are suffering, and then you go back to thinking where MicroStrategy was in 2020, and then if you want to get more optimistic about the future from another angle, again on Bitcoin, go watch the Stripe Sessions videos, which are fantastic, and especially the the opening keynote report. They talk about the ecosystem that's going on. They talk about stablecoins. They talk about AI. They talk about just an amazing growth story around the globe, but in the US as well with startups.
10:47 Anthony Pompliano? Now, this is all happening with a macro backdrop of what was, I think, a lot of uncertainty, but maybe we're getting more clarity. One of the things I find most interesting is just this week, where the President of the United States tweet and say, like, now's a good time to go buy stocks, which last time he did that, hours later, stocks ripped. When he tweeted that on Thursday, Friday, crypto was up, stocks were up, everything looks, you know, great. We have a trade deal that is not signed, but seems to be constructed, which my takeaway from the trade deal was somehow we got the UK to lower their tariff. We increased our tariff, and we got some market access. And I don't know if that's good or bad, but it seems like they at least got what they said that they were going to
11:32 Anthony Pompliano? get. And then you have like some currency competition going on around the world, where you're seeing certain currencies devalue against the dollar, etc. So like, how do you see Bitcoin and crypto playing into this macro environment? And then like, how are you reading the macro environment right now in terms of good through the rest of the year? Or do you see cracks in in the wall?
11:53 Speaker 02 Yeah, so I think you and I, during the midst of the panic, thought it was an overreaction. We both agreed on it.
12:00 Anthony Pompliano? Were we right?
12:02 Speaker 02 We were right. The market has migrated higher. And I think there's still one more capitulation in terms of positioning, normalizing, because most of the sentiment stuff has kind of eked back the other direction. But there's still going to be, I think there's going to be one more capitulation, probably when China and the US come to some agreement. But overall, I would like, you know, I'm at the point where I would temper enthusiasm. So I think for the second half of the year, people have to start focusing on what is going to happen and what it means. There's been a few things that have happened this year that should be raising alarm bells for people. When Scott Besant was at his confirmation hearing, he did mention 10% tariffs.
12:47 Speaker 02 So it's not surprising that start up here and then kind of guide everything back to 10% with China being the outlier. The problem is when he was asked the question, well, isn't this going to be inflationary? He said, not very. So if we have 10% tariffs, the companies will eat 4%. The dollar will strengthen by 4% and that'll leave 2% left for individuals for one-time costs. That was what he said. The dollar has not strengthened, the dollar has weakened. And as I talked about here, which I feel very strongly about, the global reserve currency function of the dollar is over. And what comes with that is a lot of repricing.
13:29 Speaker 02 So this week, we had the Taiwanese dollar finally have a strong move against the dollar. So the dollar weakened against the Taiwanese dollar, and it was a multiple standard deviation event two days in a row. That is, again, if you go through this year, we had a huge move in bond markets in the US one day where bond stocks and currencies went down, hadn't happened before. You had a historic move in German Bund yields. You had a similar move in terms of breakout of 30-year yields in GILTS and in JGBs, so in the UK and in JGBs. You're getting more and more of these multiple standard deviation moves in something that is related to what's happening.
14:11 Speaker 02 I actually believe the mistake here is that people have focused on the negative side of growth. The dollar weakening as much as it has and beginning a downtrend, which I think will continue around the globe. People don't realize how much a strong dollar has actually worsened growth in the Midwest, in the US, but also around the globe. This is unleashing growth. This is why when you see these charts of global liquidity is going higher, the reason global liquidity is going higher is because the dollar is weakening and you're getting these countries that weren't stimulating to stimulate like China and Germany. This has huge implications for Bitcoin because I think what is going to happen is by the second half of the year, because of the dollar weakening. The deficit, Doge, has not been successful. We're not going to meet your budget deficit
14:52 Speaker 02 based on everything I've seen. It's worsening. We're still at debt 120% to GDP and the rest of the globe has a lot of debt, $100 trillion of which 40% is maturing over the next two and a half years. We haven't fixed that. So we're going to have inflationary pressures from the government. We're going to have inflationary pressures from the weaker dollar. I do believe that the AI situation is going to create power problems coming in the second half of the year, even though Spain's situation that went on may not be directly related to AI. I think people are underestimating what's happened. And we had a very unique situation in oil this week where you had this, hey, we're going to surprise, release more barrels into the system. And yet somehow crude ended up opening lower on the week and has traded higher. I use those kind
15:37 Speaker 02 of reversal signs on what should be theoretically the kind of news that would make you go lower as a sign that we may have seen the low in energy prices this year and we're going to start to migrate higher.
15:46 Anthony Pompliano? Now, if that inflation comes, which we probably, you probably think it's going to be higher than I think it's going to be, but let's say it happens. What is the impact to asset prices? Is it 2020, 2021 all over again? Inflation runs, so do asset prices? And then what do you think the response of the government will be in that scenario? Because I think that, you know, one aspect that I always shocks me is how many people, especially online, they look at static pictures of a market. Whereas they say terrorists, oh, terror, you know, whatever. They don't realize that, well, if there's deregulation, if there's taxes, if there's AI, if there's like, all of this is happening and is dynamic and it can change day to day. And so it's very hard to look at these static photos. So let's say inflation does come. Asset prices, how are they affected?
16:31 Anthony Pompliano? And what is the government's response to that?
16:33 Speaker 02 So let me, let me be clear. I don't think we're getting inflation much higher. But let's assume instead of heading back towards two, we head back towards four. Okay. And that would be kind of my belief. The other thing Scott Bessent mentioned at his Senate confirmation was that rates were going to come down on the long end. That has not happened. We're at 440 this morning on 10-year yields. And I believe the surprise is going to be they go higher. So this is a little bit of a history lesson on this. And then it'll get in directly into into your question about about assets. Because I think there's a very important redistribution of wealth thing that is a story here that'll surprise people.
17:12 Speaker 02 So when I was in Brazil in 1997, the Asian crisis started with the Thai baht. So their currency came under attack. That was in June of 97. And then it took another year and change to get to the Russian default, to LTCM, to Tiger blowing up in terms of dollar yen, all of these different things occurred over that timeline. What people don't realize is before that month, nominal GDP in the US versus 10-year rates, 10-year rates would normally be about 100 to 150 basis points above nominal GDP. Nominal GDP right now in the US is somewhere between 4.5 and 5,
17:51 Speaker 02 which means if we were, you know, back where we were before 97, we'd be somewhere around 5.5 to 6. The reason that's important is because we stayed below nominal GDP on 10-year rates for a long time. So who benefited from that? Well, part of that was QE, but this has really been long-duration assets. So long-duration assets for people involve VC, private equity, technology stocks, things where you're looking way into the future and discounting cash flows. My belief is that we are going to see 10-year rates start to migrate higher. And I don't see how the administration can control 10-year rates. They've already kind of lost control. And this is what brought the equity market back up is they saw 10-year rates, they went, whoa, whoa, whoa.
18:35 Speaker 02 The tariffs are causing a problem in 10-year rates. We can't have that. I don't think they can control 10-year rates, and I don't think Powell is going to be able to help because of the inflationary pressures. So what will happen just from a redistribution, I think, long-duration assets. You saw that not only Harvard, but all of the elite universities. Are talking about selling off their private equity and VC. I don't think people realize, but they have about 30 to 35% of their portfolio in these long duration assets. The globe is overweight long duration assets because that's what US assets are. So I think we're going to get into a situation, as I've talked about on here, where you don't want to be in long duration assets. And one of the benefits from that, it's not just commodities, it's not just healthcare,
19:17 Speaker 02 financials, the other place that is very, very good in long duration assets is Bitcoin, you know, the opposite is Bitcoin.
19:23 Anthony Pompliano? So I actually agree with this and it's something I've been talking about now for about a year with some of our teams, also some of our investors is as someone in their mid 30s, my entire generation over rotated to privates. I joked that they watched the social network and everyone either wanted to be zuck or they wanted to invest in zuck, right? So literally it like poisoned the water and everyone went into that. Now, the good news is it was a great time to do it over the last 15 years. I believe that because of the undisciplined monitoring fiscal policy stuff, because of some of the structural stuff that you're discussing, there is going to be a lot more opportunity in the public market versus the private market because there's this like structural tailwind for liquid assets
20:06 Anthony Pompliano? that are not these kind of illiquid, long-term type things. And so what you're going to see is you're going to see this migration back of many of the people in the private market having to go into the public market. It's a different skillset. There is a very, very different kind of liquidity management. One of the beauties of VC is you think about buying and usually you don't have to think about selling, right? It's buy and hold until the founder makes a decision to sell the business, to go public, whatever. And so as that occurs, the portfolios of the institutional investors are going to look different. Obviously, the endowments and stuff like that are already starting to look like they're going to change. But I also think that you're going to see in the liquid market, a lot of different aspects. And so one of the things that I always like to talk to public hedge fund managers about is
20:51 Anthony Pompliano? they say, oh, we had 8,000 public companies, now we have 4,000. I say, yeah, you see a decline in public companies. I see an explosion of public liquid assets because a whole generation went, now they're just playing in this crypto world. It's not on your exchange, right? But we went from eight to 4,000 companies, but we got 20 million or whatever the number is now coins, of which 99 are nonsense. But there's a lot of capital, trillions of dollars now that went and got diverted into these public liquid assets that otherwise would have gone into stocks or something like that. And so to me, it's like we're going through this like regime change. And it is not only capital markets wise, it's also from like a demographic standpoint. And if an entire generation was very focused on privates, if that capital starts to now come into
21:34 Anthony Pompliano? these kind of shorter duration, more liquid type assets, that should serve as a tailwind for those asset prices. And also, I think the people who are doing this, they're trying to hide from inflation. So in a weird way, stocks became kind of an inflation hedge, even though that's not how they're kind of pitched, if you will. And so you start like checking these boxes and you say, wait a second, like the public market is going to have a renaissance in a way that all the people for the last decade who've been predicting, like, you know, we're going to have no public companies in the future. I actually think it's going to be completely offside. What do you think?
22:06 Speaker 02 So this is an interesting thing because I think we're in agreement here on, on what's happening, but I want to, I want to make sure the, the phrasing, I'm going to use a different phrasing for private and public. So I'm going to take the public sector as the government, the private sector as all of us as individuals. And then there's a third booming part and Stripe highlighted this. Have you seen their keynote yet?
22:31 Anthony Pompliano? I saw that happen, but I haven't had interviews up.
22:33 Speaker 02 It's where it's where it's cash and stuff. So I'm going to reference a couple of things that were interesting, but the Collison Brothers, they, they termed it as borderless financial services. So when people go, what's, if, if the dollar is not the global reserve currency, what is it going to be? And I go, well, Bitcoin is not a currency, but the digital economy will be the economy. And that means stable coins, it means Bitcoin. It's, it's, it's, it's a fragmented thing, but it's just a different capital system, capital structure. And that's why when you say private companies, public companies, I think capital structure is just changing. What the Collison Brothers highlighted, really interesting chart.
23:13 Speaker 02 They've shown how quickly AI companies are able to get to an ARR of $5 million and then showed cursor, which we've talked about on here, just booming, getting up to 300 million in, in revenues very, very quickly. When you go through that, they also talk about how SaaS. Had a stickier retention than AI. Now, when you think of coins and you go, well, they're 90% of them don't matter. At some point, the coins go from zero to a billion and then they come back down. What they were basically saying about the retention is that people use AI as a tool, but then they're like, oh, there's a better tool. That's exactly the way I describe it to people. So what I've said about the public and the private market,
23:55 Speaker 02 it's going to be a lot of activity happening outside of the S and P 500, outside of kind of the VC and private equity world where they're taking public companies, moving them private, doing this. I think Michael Saylor, when you combine what he said, which is there's very few companies that are actually winning. The majority of them are zombies and I agree with that. Now, when you watch Stripe, they're talking about massive growths of startups and how quickly they're able to go up. Now, these zombie companies are not using AI. All of Stripe companies are using AI. So if you get the chance and you watch it too, that's why I think we're on the same page here. I think crypto is the, the capital structure of the future for all of these little businesses. And they don't have to go through the concept of the public market.
24:39 Speaker 02 And that's what Michael Saylor talks about. So if you combine the Collison brothers, who are young, with Michael Saylor, who's not young, and you take those two presentations and you combine them, you're looking at the new capital structure. It's a very interesting dynamic to look at both of them.
24:53 Anthony Pompliano? Where are you seeing opportunity right now, given macro environment, what we're seeing with Bitcoin and crypto prices? Obviously Bitcoin, you're very bullish on, AI, you're very bullish on. Are there other things in your portfolio that you're looking at and saying, you know, either I think it's kind of a unique risk reward, or there's areas that you're paying attention to that maybe other people aren't yet?
25:13 Speaker 02 I, I'm going to say it a lot of times on here. I love the hardware side at this point. Underinvestment for the last 17 years, uh, humanoids are going to happen. Power, we need a ton of it. We need a lot of commodities and construction. Now, it's not the old school commodities of, you know, we don't need steel. We don't need aluminum. We don't need a lot of stuff, but we need to build the power that's necessary. Full self-driving vehicles. There's a lot of different stuff and I've talked about Micron, Micron, SK, Hynix and Sam. I mean, they have a stranglehold on memory. Memory is a really big thing. I don't think people fully grasp the age of intelligence and what it what it actually means that we're finally going to be able to replace humans in a way we're actually replacing their brains.
25:58 Speaker 02 It's not going to kill jobs. It's going to allow people to create businesses and move to the side. The Collisons go through how quickly the creator economy is growing, which you and I are both part of. This is on YouTube. This is a podcast. We're part of the creator economy. I do my own YouTube. I do my own Substack. I do research for other people. This is the side of the economy that's going to continue to grow. So I think everyone looking at the old economy. Yeah, it's in a recession, guys. Like, I don't know what to tell you. If you take the MAG7 out, we're in a recession. But if you guys think that this is a recession, when startups are going through the roof and growing their businesses faster than ever before,
26:37 Speaker 02 you're missing the AI picture. And so everything related to AI is where the growth is, and I would focus again for at least now on hardware. And then boring companies that are still getting government tailwinds, which means the financials because of deregulation and the healthcare because the entitlements continue to grow. And just remember, if the government can't shrink the deficit,
26:58 Speaker 02 this was supposed to happen. It's not going to happen. This is the biggest change is that if rates have moved higher, the dollar was weaker. And we weren't able to cut as much as the trillion dollars or two trillion that we hoped. I'm sorry, guys, but you have to go back to the inflationary playbook. Right now, inflation is low. But I think this is the trough of inflation for the rest of the year.
27:20 Anthony Pompliano? When you think through what's playing out right now, let's talk specifically about rate cuts and trade deals because I think those are two potential catalysts. Obviously, we saw just again, the announcement of a concept of a deal with the UK. And I don't think the UK was very high up on most people's list of like the most important deal to get done. But the market very positive, right? The reaction was, oh, here comes clarity. Oh, here comes, you know, some ability to show that you can execute these deals.
27:49 Anthony Pompliano? Do you expect, you know, a windfall and we're going to have 10 different deals and stocks go back to all time highs? How do interest rate cuts play into this? It feels like those two potential catalysts really are the thing that is going to kind of drive us higher if that does happen.
28:04 Speaker 02 So I don't think each deal now, the first one getting done is probably the biggest reaction initially, and we didn't even react that well to it yesterday. I mean, we drifted lower. It's been about three weeks where continuously the market would close above word open. And that just showed that there was, you know, there were buybacks happening. There's systematic buyers that have to buy as the market goes higher. But there were a lot of people covering shorts too. So sentiment has started to migrate back. So I still think there's upside pressure. And I still think the reality is we'll probably get to new all time highs this year. But because I think rates are going higher, and I think inflation's going higher, I wouldn't be, if we get any rate cuts this year, I believe it'll be one.
28:49 Speaker 02 And I'll tell you why. Number one, I do believe that we're going to get pressure from commodities. It's going to start to show up in the second half of the year. The second thing is what people, and I don't know why this hasn't been talked about, if he's successful with these tax cuts, and let's even throw in the tax on the two and a half million and above. The reason we had strong growth during COVID is because we gave money out. Did you get a STEMI check? I didn't get a STEMI check. I still spent. So when you hand money out to people that are getting tips and you're redistributing tax cuts lower for people, that's not deflationary, because that means 100 million people get to spend more money than they did, you know, a year ago. It brings hope back. It brings enthusiasm, because
29:33 Speaker 02 it's not just a one time thing. It's looking forward as well. So I think one of the things people have underestimated is if he's successful in the redistribution of the taxes, people, wealthy people don't change their spending habits because they're paying an extra 2%. They can bitch and complain about it. And the Republican, you know, people that have wealthy people in the thing go through, we don't raise taxes. But the reality is if that's what ends up happening, I find it to be inflationary as well. It may be good for the average person, which is why he got elected. And that's what I think he's doing. And that's why in the end, the globe, 7 billion people are going to benefit from the dollar weakening. And I just want to make sure people understand this because I've said it and I haven't given an example. When I left, when I was in Brazil, the exchange rate was
30:15 Speaker 02 1 to 1 versus the real. Here we are now. I left in 99. So we're 26 years later. It got up to six. Okay. When the currency weakens, inflation pressure, they can't cut rates. So in countries like emerging markets, if the dollar is stronger, I mean, if the dollar is weaker now, finally, and it gives up its overvalued, it's good for the Midwest, but it's also good for Brazil. It's good for these other countries that have been under pressure, which means the globe actually, a weaker dollar unleashes growth. And that's why for Bitcoin, it's incredibly powerful because you want, I mean, where are most of the users of crypto in the world, they're outside the US. The US does not dominate as a holder of crypto.
30:59 Speaker 02 That is dominated in terms of the number of users around the globe. We might have the most dollars in there, but in terms of the usage, I think, I forgot the last numbers, but it's no more than 15 to 20% is US in terms of the users. We're 70 something percent of the market cap of stocks. So if you're going to have this transfer, I believe a weaker dollar is incredibly bullish for the crypto side. It's incredibly bullish for Bitcoin and it's very, very positive for emerging markets. So that's kind of the way that I've looked at this whole thing is that the dollar being on this side is a much bigger story. I think we're only going to get one rate cut. And when we get that rate cut, I think the 10 year rate is going to go higher, just like it did in September.
31:39 Anthony Pompliano? China allegedly cut rates, printed 1 trillion yuan. Is that negotiating ammunition? Is that our economy is in trouble? How does that affect US asset prices?
31:54 Speaker 02 It's, it's all of the above. China's economy is not good. I mean, they've been trying to get locals to spend money now since COVID ended and their zero COVID policy was in place. It's been five years since COVID and five years in China right now is a long time because you're dealing with demographics that are worsening at a very fast pace. And unlike us where we've got, you know, A majority of our worth in stocks, a majority of their worth is in housing. They can't get the housing market to go. It's much easier to get stocks to go in the U.S. than it is there as we're seeing.
32:30 Anthony Pompliano? The president just tweets.
32:31 Speaker 02 He just tweets out, says, go buy stocks, make money over the weekend, which I've never seen in the U.S. So it's a little emerging market for me.
32:37 Anthony Pompliano? I was at a breakfast recently with a buddy of mine and he said that the first time that Trump did it, he immediately messaged every single one of the traders at their firm and was like, buy. And they were like, why? And he's like, he's telling you to buy, right? They're like, dude, like, who else are you going to listen to if it's not this guy? And they did buy some, but he's like, many of the traders were like, but that's not a reason. And so, obviously, a couple of hours later, everything ripped. And now they're like, if he ever tweets that again, we like, you know, it was almost like they got like the feedback loop. And so I thought it was a hilarious anecdote of what was happening.
33:16 Speaker 02 This is actually the third time. Now, again, only the second time he said it. But what I think people forget, so he said it on April 9th, the market rallies. Then it started to come down and it was going to retest the lows. And the night before, Scott Besant was at a dinner and he said, oh, there's going to be the escalation with China.
33:34 Anthony Pompliano? Yes. Yeah.
33:35 Speaker 02 So that marked the low then, and then we got another rally. So the administration has been using the jawboning, the deals. That's why I think you can only use that deal thing. And it's just ironic that the countries with the two major countries with the worst trade deficit, the UK and the U.S. are the ones who make a deal first.
33:53 Anthony Pompliano? Yeah, of course.
33:53 Speaker 02 So I don't think it's going to be easy for all the other ones. So I do think we'll get deals. I think the tariff situation is going to flow through and there'll be impact. But overall, I think we've gotten the benefit we can get from it. When the president says, buy for the weekend, I think we might be at a point where you start to fade kind of the, out of the White House.
34:12 Anthony Pompliano? You want to know what one of my, one of my goals for this administration?
34:17 Speaker 02 Can't wait to hear this.
34:18 Anthony Pompliano? To the end of it.
34:20 Anthony Pompliano? We gotta get a buy Bitcoin tweet. Just one of them, right?
34:25 Speaker 02 Not from Eric.
34:27 Anthony Pompliano? No, no, no. From the POTUS account.
34:30 Speaker 02 Yeah.
34:30 Anthony Pompliano? Because if you screenshot the POTUS account saying buy Bitcoin, it's like officially, we've established the flag. We've climbed the wall of fear, uncertainty, doubt, haters, critics. Let's see.
34:47 Speaker 02 I thought that the the stablecoin bill yesterday getting held up, not getting passed.
34:56 Speaker 02 I thought was one of the more positive things for Bitcoin. And it's very funny because I think the more that the Democrats push back on Bitcoin and they push back on Trump for for what he's doing. I just don't think they're getting the picture that crypto is a growing thing for the masses. And that if the stock market, which I do not believe the US stock market is going to be able to produce the returns that it did over the prior 15 years. So as much as we've been positive on this, if we get a true redistribution, which is what he's after, I think private equity suffers. I think elite universities suffer. I think VC suffers. I think major tech companies, long duration assets suffer.
35:41 Speaker 02 And it's not go down. I just think they don't go up the way they did. And there's multiple compression and money is drained out of it. If that's the case, crypto is going to do very well. And I think the Democrats are making a very, very big mistake, not understanding that this is where it's going. I don't know when they're going to stop this fight.
35:57 Anthony Pompliano? Buy Bitcoin tweet.
36:01 Speaker 02 You're right.
36:02 Anthony Pompliano? It's to me, it's just, um,
36:06 Anthony Pompliano? again, I actually am not in love with any politician talking about public liquid assets. Right? But if we're going to talk about them and we're going to say buy stocks, even buy stocks and Bitcoin, yeah, that's okay. You know, it's like closer to the target. But just, I think that Bitcoiners, one, would have a field day. But two, just having it, it's like a historic tweet, right? As you went from Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous individual or group creating a decentralized digital currency in the wake 2008.
36:46 Anthony Pompliano? It has this epic rise over 15 years and it's capped off with the leader of the free world saying buy Bitcoin. Nothing else in this tweet. We don't need anything. Just POTUS handle buy Bitcoin. And like, I think that is a psychological victory for the Bitcoiners that would just be like a cherry on top.
37:10 Speaker 02 Just remember when he tweeted out what they were going to add to the reserve the first time he left Bitcoin out.
37:15 Anthony Pompliano? Had a quote retweet himself. Oh, of course Bitcoin.
37:18 Speaker 02 He's not used to it yet.
37:20 Anthony Pompliano? All right. Where can we send people to get your weekly video? The video, Jordan does a lot of stuff. He writes, records the video, does many interviews, does the research with the firm, all the stuff. The video is my favorite thing that you do. And to kind of help people understand this, you sit up there in the little corner on video, you got a bunch of charts, graphs, kind of different things that visually help people understand. I watch it every single week. And what I like about it is every single week when I watch the video, there's at least two to three things that I haven't heard before. Right? And usually it's even things that it's not like, oh, I've heard people talking
38:02 Anthony Pompliano? about this. This is a unique view. You have those. But a lot of times it's, I haven't even heard anyone talk about this specific point, like the Besen confirmation hearing stuff. First time today I heard about that.
38:14 Speaker 02 Right. And I'm gonna go highlight it on the video this week.
38:16 Anthony Pompliano? So where can people find that video?
38:18 Speaker 02 They can find it at Visceral Labs on YouTube. Same thing on Substack. And then for people on the institutional side, particular things with hardware, AI embodiment, I do a lot of AI research for 22v Research. I did, I did a video this week with the technician at 22v on the importance of the Asian currency side. I do, I do some of this on the video. That is meant more to take people on a journey that they can understand, whether it's a crypto person, whether it's mom and dad just sitting at home that don't follow markets, and they're just wondering what, what's going on in them. This kind of takes people to bring them somewhat at ease. So I appreciate you, you watching it. I appreciate you talking about it.
38:57 Anthony Pompliano? Trying to learn.
38:58 Speaker 02 Always love to be here.
38:59 Anthony Pompliano? You got knowledge that I don't have. I need the knowledge. All right. That's it for this week. We'll see you guys next week.
Previous #1545 Anthony Scaramucci | How Trump’s Trade Policies Could Supercharge Bitcoin Next #1547 Anthony & Polina Pompliano | BITCOIN BREAKS $103K: Wall Street Surrenders Page updated October 26, 2026 · transcript and summary are machine-generated
