#1506 Jordi Visser | Trump Throws Bitcoin & Stocks Into CHAOS

Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos. In this conversation we discuss Trump’s economic plan, tariffs, tax proposals, Trump vs Powell, inflation, gold, stocks, and the relationships and uncertainty from the Trump admin.=======================Simple Mining makes Bitcoin mining simple and accessible for everyone. We offer a premium white glove hosting service, helping you maximize the profitability of Bitcoin mining. For more information on Simple Mining or to get started mining Bitcoin, visit https://www.simplemining.io/=======================BitcoinIRA: Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Take 3 minutes to open your account & get connected to a team of IRA specialists that will guide you through every step of the process. Go to https://bitcoinira.com/pomp/ to earn up to $500 in rewards.=======================Pomp writes a daily letter to over 265,000+ investors about business, technology, and finance. He breaks down complex topics into easy-to-understand language while sharing opinions on various aspects of each industry. You can subscribe at https://pomp.substack.com/=======================View 10k+ open startup jobs:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://dreamstartupjob.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Enroll in my Crypto Academy: https://www.thecryptoacademy.io/

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:02Anthony Pompliano?

  What's up everyone, this is Anthony Pompliano. Many of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them for hours while I ask questions in an effort to learn. So it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform, watch episodes on YouTube, and tell your friends and family about the podcast. My goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode. What's going on guys? We are back with an amazing episode with Jordy Visser. Jordy spent over 30 years on Wall Street. He is one of the smartest hedge fund investors that I know, and he's here to give you free information about what's going on in the world. We talk about the current administration, tariffs, tax situation, why the stock market is going

• 0:46Anthony Pompliano?

  down, whether you should worry about it or not, whether he thinks stocks will actually hit all time highs again before the end of the year. We then talk about gold, Bitcoin, what the relationship is, why it's breaking down, whether Bitcoin is in good shape or not, and why is gold going up at such a fast pace? We touched on all of this and much more in today's episode, so I hope you guys enjoy it. Once you get done listening, send it to a friend, help them get better educated as well, and we'll see you guys next week. Here's my latest conversation with Jordy Visser.

• 1:12Speaker 01

  Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only.

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• 2:38Anthony Pompliano?

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• 3:22Anthony Pompliano?

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• 3:55Anthony Pompliano?

  So Jordi, a great place to start this conversation is, the Trump administration is obviously moving incredibly fast. It seems chaotic to a lot of people. There's uncertainty, the stock market is coming down. And people want to understand, like, what is their plan? What are they doing? And I thought that a good place to kind of level set here is, just what is your understanding of what they're trying to accomplish? And why are they trying to do it?

• 4:18Speaker 03

  Yeah, I think this is, at least from the people I talked to in the markets, this is the biggest confusion point is, is there a plan? What is the plan? And how are they executing it? So everyone's kind of lost, like not knowing what the situation is going to be. So you see uncertainty levels and all surveys have gone through the roof. You're hearing that last week, FactSet put out earnings changes for the first quarter, and they've moved earnings estimates down sharply based on consensus numbers. And the number one reason is uncertainty over the tariffs. So when you ask the question, what is the plan? I think people who don't understand how severe the situation is need to kind of

• 4:59Speaker 03

  set the table in their mind for something has to be done quickly. And if they want to go someplace to really learn more about what's happened, listening to any recent one-hour podcast with Ray Dalio, and Ray Dalio has been in the press a lot. He actually wrote a book specifically about the situation, and he released it free on the internet, so people can go read it. But I think this will start to calm people down, and it sounds funny to say there's a serious problem. But if you're looking for what's going on and should it be happening? I think if you read traditional media, you've got one side saying this is a disaster, and so it's scaring the hell out of people. On the other side, you have people saying this is the way we should go, and no one will get off of the, we don't care about the stock market,

• 5:42Speaker 03

  we're in a full-out war, it's economic, we have to get back what we want. I think people have to go back and just see that, number one, we have too much debt. Number two, this year, I think there's $9 trillion that matures. So we have to refinance that debt. That's a big number. But when you add in the fact that the deficit is another $1.8 to $2 trillion, that means that we have to also issue more debt to finance the hole that we have. So Ray Dalio's point was, when you get in that situation of a spiral, it's a death spiral, meaning if you don't fix it fast... You're in trouble and his point was you have to use all different types of mechanisms. And I think if you sit back and look, we're trying to do tariffs. That's a tax hike.

• 6:25Speaker 03

  That's to transfer money from the private sector to the public sector for the, to make hopefully the deficit better. You've got those trying to make deficit better through austerity. You are trying things, but at the same time, Dalio's point is you do deflationary actions, but then you also do stimulative actions. And that's where the tax cuts fit in. So I think there is a plan. You can debate whether it's being executed properly, but there is a plan.

• 6:45Anthony Pompliano?

  So one of the parts to me that people really don't quite get is you have this deficit. And the way that I think about this is the deficit is getting bigger every single year on an annual basis. So it used to be a $1 trillion a year deficit. Then it was 1.5. Now it's like two. The latest numbers are suggesting it could be as big as 2.75 trillion. Like it's just continuing to expand. And then to your point, we already have a big debt number out there and that debt rolls over. We got to continue to refinance this. And in layman's terms, the way I always describe to people is we basically take out a second credit card with a higher limit to pay off the first credit card. Right? And every time you do that, you got to go find someone who will give you a bigger and bigger credit limit to be able to pay off your previous credit card debt.

• 7:28Anthony Pompliano?

  And so as a government doing this, they're coming in and they're saying, hey, this is a big problem. We need to come and address it. Now, it also feels like when you go and you have a company that is struggling and you're going to take over that business, you don't just show up and say, okay, we're going to make this one change. It is a complete overhaul of the business. So you got some good employees, you keep them. You got some bad employees, you fire them. You're spending too much money over here, you cut that. You got to go to your customers and say, I need you to pay me more money on the revenue side. Like you're pulling all these different levers to make the whole better. It sounds like that's what the government really is trying to do here. And so maybe we can kind of go through each one of these and unpack, you know, is it working? Is it not? What are they trying to accomplish? And we can start with the tariffs because I think a lot of people see tariffs as economic

• 8:13Anthony Pompliano?

  policy to drive more tax revenue. But then there's a whole lot of other people who say, wait a minute, this just seems like we're playing, you know, kind of like a pissing match with some of these world leaders. And, you know, the guy in Ontario says he's going to put 25% tariff on electricity. So we come over the top with 50% on steel and aluminum. You know, the people in Europe say they're going to put a 50% tax on American whiskey. We come over the top and say, we're going to 200% on wine and spirits. Right? So how much of this is like negotiating and geopolitical kind of posturing versus do you think that they're actually trying to drive more revenue?

• 8:43Speaker 03

  I definitely think without a without any question, you cannot doubt that tariff, the tariff negotiations are real and there's going to be tariff changes. I think you have to start with that because it's impossible to take what he did in the first administration, realize he did put tariffs. He's called himself the tariff man. Tariffs are real. I mean, I, there's no other way around it. They're going to happen. Now, when you say the stock market is falling because of tariffs, I, I think what's ended up happening and what people have to realize, a lot of what we're trying to renegotiate is reciprocal. It's trying to get things that are more in line. If you're going to put tariffs on our cars, why shouldn't we have tariffs on your cars? So if we can come to an agreement that balances things out,

• 9:26Speaker 03

  he's just trying to get some money through the tariffs back in the government's hands that normalize things. And when you combine it with your other question, anyone who has gone into, if you haven't read the book, just go into ChatGPT and say, what's the negotiating style of Donald Trump based on the art of the deal? And you will get literally what we're getting. So when someone posts 200% tariffs on wine, just post it. And the market responds to it. He's clearly doing negotiation in the way that he feels, which is to apply leverage. Now, I think there's a bigger plan here that probably has to do as well with what happened with getting the tax cut or getting the, the shutdown kind of averted.

• 10:11Speaker 03

  I think he's trying to apply pressure to everyone. And as Ray Dalio said, you have to come out of the gates running on this every day that counts. It counts in a big number and you highlighted that like so far, five months in or over the last five months, it's if you annualize that number and I, and I will say, remember the biggest tax receipts that we get come from income taxes, which are going to be coming soon. So that's, that'll bring the number back down. But your point is valid, like we, we have to do stuff. So the tariffs are meant to get some money back in. They are a tax hike. There's no doubt about it. But to be honest with you, we've, we've talked about consumption tax hikes where the wealthy pay more money. And I think people have to start realizing that tariffs on items, yes, they will make the overall consumer pay more.

• 10:55Speaker 03

  Some of that money will go to the government, but if it's on items where we've got a distribution of wealth problem, you are bringing money hopefully back into the country that way. So that's the first thing, definitely.

• 11:04Anthony Pompliano?

  On taxes in particular, I think the knock against Trump or the critique from the left was always, you're just going to give tax breaks to the wealthy, you're going to help enrich your friends, kind of the normal political talking points. I don't think anyone saw that Howard Lutnick and Donald Trump and Scott Besant and all these guys would be talking about, no, actually, our goal is to get 0% tax rate at the federal income level for anyone making $150,000 or less. Right? And when I looked at the data and there's 130 million American households, they say that 85 to 90% of American households make less than 150K. So that means that like 110 million or so households, they want to get them to zero federal income tax,

• 11:45Anthony Pompliano?

  which would be one of the most transformative things you could do for households, let alone the American economy. But you are taking money away from the US government in that funding mechanism. So talk a little bit about these like tax proposals at this point. They're not targeting just rich people. They're also saying that they want to have no federal income tax on people who make less than $150,000 a year.

• 12:07Speaker 03

  Yeah, this is again, why if you read the papers, whatever paper you read every day, you're going to be biased by what you've read because it's going to have either something that is more to the right or something more to the left. My own opinion from hopefully sitting somewhere in the middle is, I don't see how anything he's doing is helping the wealthy people. I think he's trying to get a message out, whether it's taxes on tips, whatever it is. He's trying to help out people in the country and the distribution of wealth problem is a major part of this thing. He just doesn't want to do it by raising taxes on the wealthy, which is a very difficult thing to do because it slows down businesses. So that's why if you do things like consumption wise and it's on tariffs and who spends,

• 12:51Speaker 03

  you know, the bulk of GDP in this country. Is consumed by the top 20%. It's a huge portion of GDP at this point, and that's the distribution of wealth problem. So if you make tax hikes on consumption through tariffs, you are by definition hurting people. You're getting more money from wealthy. So it's a way to to increase taxes on the wealthy. And so I think this income tax thing, I don't know how they're going to be able to maneuver this through. But I do think they're genuine about trying to help out the distribution of wealth problem in the country. And whether or not they can do that, I think a lot of it is going to be many moving pieces. And I think one point that has gotten a little bit too far out of control. There's short term things that are negotiation today. The tariffs thing to me is a negotiation today.

• 13:36Speaker 03

  And I, that's why I said, I believe that averting a shutdown and then getting his tax cuts through simultaneously around. This has been kind of the goal. Play the tariff debate, get what you can out of that. At the same time, get your tax cuts through to kind of go through stimulative on one end and balanced on the other with increased revenues. I think that that's what he's trying to do. And I think this is to try and both help the stock market, give people some comfort, because everything is negative right now in the press.

• 14:03Anthony Pompliano?

  What is interesting to me is everything that he's doing on tariffs, taxes, kind of economic policy, geopolitical negotiating, even I would say trying to get the ceasefire deal done for Russia, Ukraine, etc. Is having an impact on the stock market. Stock market is down 10% in about three weeks. I believe it is the fifth fastest decline since 1950, you told me. But then I see stats like Peter Maluk over at Creative Planning posts. And he says, hey, the intra year average drawdown is like 14, 15% over the last 75 years. And so I guess my first question is just like, should we be worried about a 10% drop?

• 14:45Anthony Pompliano?

  Or is this somewhat normal in, you know, kind of the the stock market in general?

• 14:50Speaker 03

  Yeah, I mean, this is the point where in the last two weeks, a sentiment on surveys that the market. Participants look at, it has gone down sharply. It doesn't matter. First, it was kind of the trading one, but now you've got into the Investors Intelligence Newsletter, which is one of the more reliable ones, and that's gone into, I would say, bearish territory. So sentiment's been negative, but there hasn't been a bounce yet. And I think part of it is because A, a 10% correction, although it's happened super fast, and it is, I mean, it's the fastest 10% correction since COVID, and it's been very disruptive to hedge funds, it's been very disruptive to the parts of the market where, like we've seen in crypto,

• 15:32Speaker 03

  take the altcoins and convert that into the stock market and things like AppLovin, Palantir, which, I mean, some of these companies are making real dollars, but their multiples had exploded. So we've seen multiple compression, but the reality is, the breadth of the market is near all-time highs stuff. And that's because there's been a lot of stocks that have gone higher. In fact, as of last, I guess it was Tuesday, we still had about 200 companies in the S and P 500, out of the 500, so about 40% were still up for the year. So a 10% correction is not a big deal. The question I always say, as someone who tries to be rational about this, and who does think we are nearing a point where there's going to be some kind of a bounce, is are we going to have a recession? Because where the question becomes important, to actually

• 16:16Speaker 03

  have a 20, 30% correction, which is less common, those generally happen when you're either at or going into a recession. And that's where sentiment is starting to go. But the reality is, all we're seeing right now is a pause in businesses and investors, and they've kind of said, we don't know what's going to go on. There are no signs as of now that there's going to be a recession. And I don't think there'll be one, because I think very quickly, if we reduce the rhetoric and the trade war, the market will start to bounce, and all of a sudden, people start planning those vacations again. But right now, everything's on hold.

• 16:50Anthony Pompliano?

  One of the parts I always go back to is, it seems like the more people talk about a recession, the less likely a recession is to happen. Is the same thing true, you think, in the more fear in those sentiment surveys, the less likely it is that we're going much, much lower? Like, if people are already worried, if people are already kind of projecting what they think's going to happen in the future, it feels like usually the market is telling you, hey, maybe we're bottoming now, because the fear is the worst that it's been? How do you think about that?

• 17:18Speaker 03

  Well, first of all, let's go through, because... You and I have gotten to know each other about technology and about crypto.

• 17:28Speaker 03

  When we actually had recessions, true recessions that, and I hate to say this to people, if you throw out COVID, we had a recession in the great financial crisis, which was a real one, and it was driven by a credit contagion, a debt, it was, in my opinion, the last of the industrial revolution, where we had built up all this debt in the private sector. And it started to unravel, and the government had to absorb that debt and put it on its balance sheets. Now, if you go back to 1980, when recessions were more relevant, manufacturing jobs were about a third of the economy. Now they're less than 10%. So where are the jobs are created? And the reason I bring up jobs, to actually have a recession,

• 18:10Speaker 03

  there needs to be a credit situation, which I just, the private credit market is not big relative to the equity market. So the equity market needs to fall a lot. But the problem is, most of the jobs being created are in healthcare. They've been government too, so we're reducing that. And as you pointed out in one of your videos this week, a lot of the jobs have been government, and this goes to contractors and stuff there. 25%, I think, over the last two years, yeah. It's a big number. Healthcare is not a cyclical job. We need more nurses. We've got an aging population that, until we have humanoids that can actually work in the hospitals, which isn't coming soon, we will continue to hire people on that. I've mentioned here, I have four kids,

• 18:49Speaker 03

  three of them are in the healthcare field. So it's a reality. So we don't have recessions the way we did in the past because of credit, but also because the nature of the job situation has gone. But when I say the private sector, and this is something that I want to make sure people watching this, this is a great time to be looking for what is going to work coming out of this. So if you're going to invest and you've done this, I think everyone in crypto gets used to these. I think the equity market, it's not as, it's not as normal. So people start worrying about this whole, well, it's going to be a recession. A recession to me is defined as you lose about one and a half percent of jobs, which would mean job losses of about two and a half million people And you can't find work for about a year or two.

• 19:33Speaker 03

  So when we had the great financial crisis, we went up to 10% unemployment and it took us a long time to get back down to four. That was the last time because the demographic shift in the first baby boomer retired in 2011. So we have a labor shortage now. So we have a bigger problem that we don't have enough jobs. We're obviously not, the immigration policies changed. We're not going to have an excess of people. So it's going to be harder. And so I don't see recession as a possibility. And I think AI is going to create tons of productivity that'll keep going, which will bring profit margins up. So we're actually in a really good spot that could we shrink down to maybe 1% growth over a couple of quarters? Yeah, could it be negative for a quarter? Sure. But people shouldn't be looking at some massive unwind like 2008.

• 20:12Anthony Pompliano?

  And there is this like hedge fund unwind that you've been talking about, um, which more is from like an investment thought process, but explain how this works and like, why is it happening?

• 20:23Speaker 03

  Yeah, it started to make the press and if things don't change soon, uh, it, it could become a bigger story. There, there's two places. So I grew up in emerging markets. That's where my background is in the nineties. Everything that I traded, I, I, when I was at Morgan Stanley, my first job, I was handed the Mexico book two months before the tequila crisis started and they devalued their currency. And it was a derivative book and thankfully, um, the guy who had it before me did a really good job of making sure that it was hedged. But I learned very quickly two things. Number one, uh, when you have a lot of debt, things can unwind very quickly. And number two, all the bad things that tend to happen in these situations tend to happen

• 21:08Speaker 03

  from an unwind of, of leverage. LTCM happened while I was in Brazil during the emerging market crisis. And this is a version of that. So I mentioned last week that I'm concerned about AI optimized risk management structures. So machine learning and AI has been around a lot longer than people realize. Chat GPT was not the beginning of it. That's where we got LLMs, uh, democratized, but machine learning has been used for a long time and some of the bigger hedge funds have had a huge advantage and spend hundred plus million dollars a year on quant models to make sure that they are hedged. Once we had democratized AI, a couple of things happened. One is momentum strategies started to really work well.

• 21:49Speaker 03

  And part of the reason they work well, my son can go in and back test any strategy and say, "Hey, tell me what's worked really well, create a portfolio and let me put it on." And we saw a really big rise in people doing this. At the same time, you can go optimize a portfolio much easier. You can just put it in, "Hey, I want to strip out all the factor risk." Main point is, it's been kind of this grace period where a lot of big strategies that run paired portfolios that are risk optimized, they've been losing money at a fairly fast clip. And it's been, let's say, out of the ordinary relative to the past six, seven years. And in some cases, the last 13 years. And that's because, in my opinion, what we are trying to do.

• 22:31Speaker 03

  When you say NATO might break up, when you start going into a trade war and saying tariffs are going to go back to where they were in the 1800s, risk optimization is based on historical correlations and volatility. We don't know the world we're going into. And so I think, and I don't want to get wonky on this one, but a lot of risk models don't know what to do right now. And so everyone is risk reducing, and that is a self fulfilling prophecy of creating losses. So internally, it's been a lot worse. And that's why I said there's been about 200 stocks up and the S and P 300 down. And that's because the ones that are down have been the ones that people were long, very sensitive to artificial intelligence. The ones that have gone higher, like even Europe, like China, are ones that people didn't own.

• 23:13Speaker 03

  And so you've had this kind of unwind that happens every now and then. Right now, it's losses. It could get worse if things continue. But as of right now, I think if that happens, credit will start to widen out. I did want to mention the other place where there's been a growth in leverage that people should watch is the private debt markets. And so the private equity funds have fallen significantly over the court. Their stocks have fallen significantly over the last five weeks. And historically, they have a fairly high correlation in their stock price to the private credit markets, because obviously they're private equity and private credit. And we're starting to see some weakness there. So that's another place that people should watch. Watch the private equity stocks.

• 23:57Anthony Pompliano?

  When you see this unwind happening, it means that they are de-risking as a individual, you know, participant in the market. What are the risks to the market when everyone starts to de-risk together? Right? Because now you're like creating this like correlation in a weird way where each individual actor is becoming safer in their opinion. But actually, if they all do it at the same time, there's got to be risk.

• 24:21Speaker 03

  And that and that's the problem. And I think that's why, you know, the administration, we may have talked about it last week. I know you've you've made it. You've talked about it on your videos, but if the goal of the administration was to get tenure rates lower, everyone was kind of applauding, well, rates have gone down from 480 to 425 as of yesterday. That's great, but the stock market is back to where it was September. And I think you also said stock market is unchanged over the last six months, which is true. Tenure rates at that same time, six months ago, when stocks were down there, they were 367, they're 425 right now. So they're actually higher. So this is the problem that comes, and I think your point is the one that worries me. And this is the point where I think if I had to grade the administration, I think they're trying to solve a problem which needs to be solved and they're doing it quickly.

• 25:06Speaker 03

  So I completely agree with doing it that way. I think the messaging they're bringing to the market is we don't care about the stock market. Okay, I don't think that messaging is a great idea. I don't think getting into trade wars as opposed to negotiating the terrorists, but this is the way he likes to negotiate. So at some point here, the reason I think there's going to be a bounce is because I do think the pressure is starting to show up in approval ratings. And I do think it's showing up from his own administration around the country, just from the stuff you've kind of seen Twitter and the little, little talking points. That is why this self fulfilling prophecy of de-risking, it's starting to hurt his situation. And so I think we're at a point where if he continues with this and we have April 2nd

• 25:50Speaker 03

  coming up and everyone in the hedge fund world is waiting for that, which means the opposite of de-risking is are people going to take risk? No one's taking risk ahead of April 2nd at this point because we have no clarity on what it's going to mean. And that puts us in a very precarious position if something starts to happen. And we do have vulnerabilities on economic data, earnings, things along those lines, because the earnings period will start just after April 2nd and we'll start to see how much of an impact that the pausing has had from the consumer.

• 26:16Anthony Pompliano?

  One of the parts that I've noticed already is there's been a couple of companies that have reported and I think I saw BMW, a couple of others, they're all already pointing to tariffs as like a boogeyman and you gotta say, look, the guy got in office on, you know, January 20th or whatever it was, he hadn't even been there for 60 days yet and companies are already blaming these activities. What's hilarious to me is it feels like now if you had a bad performance, you're going to have a window of time where you can just blame the government and it doesn't actually have anything to do with what your Q4 results were, right? He wasn't even in office

• 26:57Anthony Pompliano?

  yet, but you're already talking about tariffs. How do hedge funds kind of evaluate, you know, what's being said in terms of the words versus what the data is and the calendar of when the results are actually being reported from?

• 27:09Speaker 03

  Well, that's why I mentioned, so there's two things about this and last week I said something and I've said it, I've done some webinars this week with strictly for asset managers.

• 27:21Speaker 03

  The stock market is 200% of GDP. Their sentiment is, no matter which one you use, consumer confidence, University of Michigan, I don't care where, it's not just low, it's been lower than you would expect with unemployment rate where it is and the stock market where it was. And the reason is because of the distribution of wealth problem and I've called this and I think AI is impacting this, where we've lost the ability for people to upwardly move up the corporate ladder. And so if you're a person who just started and I'll use my daughters and, you know, they just come out of college and they're working really long hours trying to help people get better. And I asked them, well, do you know approximately how much money you'll

• 28:06Speaker 03

  be making in five years? They go, yeah. And they tell me, that's not enough to live in New York City and they want to live in New York City, they want to live in LA, they want to live in these places. One of my daughters lives in Little Rock, Arkansas, and she went there because how much he could make relative to what it would cost was more in line with what she wanted in her

• 28:24Speaker 03

  The reason I bring that up as part of your question is the stock market and crypto, they're both hope things for people. And so when the stock market goes down, what does happen and what has happened in surveys, vacation plans in the US have collapsed in surveys. We've seen new orders from the PMI sharply lower. We've seen real consumer spending in the first month down sharply. The economic data, the Atlanta Fed GDP now, it's going to move back up, but it's somewhere between 0 and 1%. We are having a slowdown and it's not because we're going into a recession. It's because people are like, I don't want to take those extra spendings because my stock market's going down. My mother's retired.

• 29:09Speaker 03

  She sees her stock market go down 10%. That's meaningful and it doesn't matter that same price of September. They keep marking that up in their heads. They're like, you know what? I'm going to be prudent. I'm not going to spend anything because they're reading the papers and the papers are scaring them. So I, I think that isn't an overreaction to the tariffs. I think what we're seeing around the globe is people that are spending are just holding back until they get more clarity. And that's what I said, if his goal was to create softer economic conditions, which might be, he's getting that. The rate fall is not happening at the same pace as the stock market. But there's a lot of people that speculate that what he really needs to do, because most of the debt, and this is the other problem that I mentioned, we have $9 trillion of debt maturing this year,

• 29:53Speaker 03

  but most of that's short-term debt. So if 10-year rates go down, that doesn't actually help the debt situation. If the Fed doesn't cut rates. So I think there's a lot of belief that if we can get this stuff down, gas at the pump is coming down, egg prices are finally coming down. Like you're seeing things finally come down. Maybe they can cut rates, but I think the stock market has paused people.

• 30:16Anthony Pompliano?

  One of the heuristics that I've used is Trump truth posted or tweeted at whatever platform he's using now. At Jerome Powell, basically said, get the rates down, get the rates down, cut rates. Powell very defiantly said, no, I'm not going to cut rates. I'm independent. That led reporters to ask him, you know, if he tells you to quit, will you quit? Or will he fire you or whatever the language was? He said, no. So it was very kind of, I'm going to be independent. I'm almost to the degree of being defiant.

• 30:47Anthony Pompliano?

  Is it as simple as just like Trump and Besen are saying, okay, you're not going to cut rates, we're going to make you cut rates, we're going to literally break your will by slowing down this economy so much that you're going to cut these rates down? Or is that too, maybe, uh, that's a hopeful dream that there's some, you know, chess going on between the Fed and, uh, and the executive branch?

• 31:09Speaker 03

  Bill Dudley wrote an op ed this week in, uh, in Bloomberg, I believe it's in Bloomberg. Regardless, he wrote an op ed this week. The problem is, and this is the issue that, that they have, uh, the Fed is responding, yes, to what'll be slower growth, but their mandate is around jobs, which right now are still fine. And unfortunately, inflation is not only above their target, but, you know, based on, we, we saw two good, what appeared to be good inflation numbers this week, but the problem is the PCE, which is the one that they follow, the estimates are above point three. So you go through an annualize, you take 12 time, we're still above 3% in PC core.

• 31:52Speaker 03

  And, and at this point, this is a very difficult thing for them to navigate in terms of, okay, we want to, they want to lower rates too. They understand this, they're Americans, they realize that paying money on debt's not real, but they need to have inflation in check. And the issue is inflation expectations for the next two years via the swap market, they're up above 3%. And they have gone up since Trump took over. 10 year rates are below that. I guess it's more two years are about 270, the, the, the actual tips are up at three. But regardless, there's a 30 basis point spread right now where two-year swap expectations of inflation are above 10-year. The problem with that is that means inflation expectations in the near term are elevated

• 32:37Speaker 03

  in terms of what people expect, and you've seen that in most surveys. Now, it's been skewed a lot by the divide between Democrats and Republicans. While Democrats think it's going higher, Republicans say it's going lower. And I think all of that just makes it confusing for the Fed. So unless we see something on the job situation that gives them the ammo, I think it's really, really hard with how fast he's going to, at the same time, say, we're going to do tax cuts and we're going to do tariffs, because both of those arguably, you could make a case, could be inflationary, and they don't know the answer. So I think they're on pause to wait and see.

• 33:14Anthony Pompliano?

  Inflation number, and I wrote about it this week, 3% now 2.8. Trueflation, which I always caveat, say it's alternative inflation metric, tries to be more real time. There's some people who really, you know, put a lot of weight into it. There's other people who will tell me all the reasons why it's stupid, whatever. But it is showing 1.35%. So if the government number was 2.8 and trueflation is showing 2.6, it's kind of a wash in my mind, right? But when you are 50% lower, and you actually were higher than the government number three months ago, it tells me that you're not like, you know, structurally under accounting forever or whatever, right? It

• 33:57Anthony Pompliano?

  seems more sensitive to the real time nature of this. And so when the government was at, you know, 2.93%, they were at like 3.1%. Now all of a sudden trueflation is down at 1.35, which is such a significant drop.

• 34:08Speaker 03

  Yep.

• 34:09Anthony Pompliano?

  Do you read into two, three, four months from now, we should expect the inflation number to be under 2%? And it's just that they have backwards looking, kind of lagging data? And that probably is more likely where we are with the inflation number? The government data just hasn't caught up yet?

• 34:22Speaker 03

  I am actually finally in the camp that what trueflation is showing, and again, if, when I was doing my YouTube videos at the end of last year and in the beginning, I was more in the camp that there was going to be inflation. And it wasn't around the tariffs, it was around some other things. But you take oil down to the mid 60s, and it is the bottom of kind of the range that it's been bouncing around it. Gas at the pumps come down. That's kind of the, the, let's say, the flexible ones are the, the part that moves and bounces around. But a lot of things like auto insurance, housing insurance, all of those things had gone up significantly. And I'm not saying they're going to come down, but I think we've

• 35:06Speaker 03

  reached a point where the economy is weak enough.

• 35:11Speaker 03

  And I do mean, I think the economy is going to weaken. I think the policies that have come in place are going to shave off a good hundred basis points of nominal GDP. Nominal GDP has been about 5%. It doesn't get talked about that much, but I think if you can get nominal GDP back down to around four, China's CPI just went negative again, and that has an influence on our stuff. Even, and we're going to raise tariffs, so it's not going to be a pure one for one. But I happen to believe that the inflation stuff is not going to be bad. And if it is related to the tariffs, it is a one-off. That is true. I mean, you raise prices once, the next year, they're not getting another tariff raise. So it raises for one year, it has a little impact, and then it comes back

• 35:53Speaker 03

  down. So I think the market's going to look through it. That's why I really, I don't think we're going into recession. I think actually the policies that we're doing are going to find a way to help inflation. I just think as a Bitcoin person, one of my, you know, big things is the conversation about the Mar-a-Lago Accords. If you ask me how this is going to end, I find it hard to believe that we're going to find the money necessary for the fiscal deficit to get in check, based on the way we're going about this. I also think the fight back from the other countries on the tariffs is a meaningful thing, and that leaves the, how do we solve this thing? And I think there's a lot of truth in the Mar-a-Lago Accords as to how this thing may end. It's very good for

• 36:37Speaker 03

  gold, it's very good for Bitcoin, and that's one of the reasons why I think you've seen gold go higher, is I think people are starting to build in that this is going to end up with some kind of an agreement between the countries, because I don't think it's going to end with us backing down.

• 36:48Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah, I definitely don't think that he's going to back down. He strikes me as, what's the scene in the Titanic where they go and the captain's there and he's like, the captain goes down with the ship? I think that is exactly, we got a captain who's going to go down with the ship, or he will succeed with the ship, right? Either way. Gold and Bitcoin you brought up, and usually the drivers of gold are the drivers of Bitcoin. We have seen both of them do well last year. I think gold was up 50%, Bitcoin was up 100%. I have said, you know, Bitcoin is gold with wings. It actually, you know, goes up or whatever. But gold has been going up and Bitcoin has been going down in recent weeks. What do you make of kind of the divergence of performance between those two assets?

• 37:32Speaker 03

  Okay, so you have described Bitcoin as analog gold, which is what it is.

• 37:42Speaker 03

  So if I look at digital gold and I go, okay, so let's take the other side. There has to be two parts to this. So gold itself to me is it's about it's about money supply. It's about growing liquidity, but it's also about the framework of the world, possibility of wars. I'm going to hide my money. What Donald Trump is doing is knocking down technology stocks. So Bitcoin has a correlation to technology because it is a technology. At the end of the day, I'm bullish on it, not because of printing. I think if productivity is really good, even if money supply grew very, very little, as long as we're productive, then Bitcoin is still going to be going higher.

• 38:26Speaker 03

  So I've not been one of those ones that likes to follow this M2 thing in there. That being said, it is pointing straight up now. So everyone who's happy about Bitcoin will be there. I think gold is actually moving this way because of what I said, which is we got off of the gold standard. And so this whole thing of whether you go to Bretton Woods, whether you go back, we're talking about reestablishing kind of the order of the world. It's very pro gold. You don't know whether it's deflationary or inflationary at this point. I think at the end of the day, it's bad for all currencies because I think, you know, we talk about our debt, Japan's is far bigger. Deficits all across the globe, ours is just worse than most places.

• 39:06Speaker 03

  So I think we're still in a world where at the end of this, even if it ends up being something for gold now, once the NASDAQ starts to move higher, and I hate to say that because then everyone goes, well, it's just tech stocks. The NASDAQ is amorphous. I don't know anyone that owns the NASDAQ. I know people that own the S and P and Bitcoin outperforms the S and P. I know people that did own the Mag 7, but now the Mag 7 has gone down. And the fact that they've had a 20% correction and Bitcoin's had a 30% correction. Here's what I will say. I think when Bitcoin does go higher or when the market turns a little bit, I think Bitcoin is going to dramatically outperform stocks. So gold has gone. On higher Bitcoin hasn't, but I think the catch up will happen once we get a bounce in the market. And I think Bitcoin will be back up towards 90.

• 39:47Speaker 03

  The real move higher, though, at this point, I think, has to come from clarity on the tariffs. And at that point, that's when we'll have a big move. And then the bigger move will come from the admission that we're going to have to print money to get out of this. And I will remind people that part of Ray Dalio's thing is the stimulating part also includes debasing. I mean, it's you have to get the deficit back to 3%. That's what Scott Besen is said. That's what Ray Dalio said. I don't think the fact that they both said that is go read Ray Dalio's stuff. It'll it'll give you some insight. And what does he say to own gold and Bitcoin? So.

• 40:24Anthony Pompliano?

  Gold is at all time highs. Is there a psychological barrier at $3,000 an ounce? You know, Bitcoiners were looking at 100,000. It's a big round number. It was kind of a dream at one point, then it became reality. Crossed over and said, oh, now everyone's going to be paying attention. It feels safe now because it's at 100,000, whatever. Is there any kind of psychological impact of gold hitting 3,000? Or is that just another number like 2,000 was?

• 40:50Speaker 03

  Yeah, it's it's just another number. I mean, we've seen central banks buying for a while, but to be fair.

• 40:59Speaker 03

  When Stephen Mirren wrote the paper. If you're a central bank and you you've kind of gone through this yourself and you're like, the only solution is for them to come to us and say, how about we issue bonds for 100 years and we pay you zero interest on it? I mean, basically defaulting on the debt. You would be accumulating as much gold as you possibly can. They're going to let the dollar go down. You'd be accumulating as much gold as you can. And so I think the gold thing has been about defensive posturing or posturing for central banks of what the world will look like. My obsession and belief in gold is that it is still. It's still an old person's thing. It's it's not a young person's. It's not.

• 41:44Speaker 03

  It's not the kid in Nigeria or the kid in Brazil or the kid in Argentina. They're going to own Bitcoin. And the problem is most of the money is with these bigger powers. And so the older people control the power at this point, but they're just figuring out the nature of what this. The world's gonna look like when you talk about NATO not existing, I mean, I don't think people have put into context what that actually means. I mean, it's a big statement and rather than sit there and like freak out about it, I, you know, my grandmother taught me a lot growing up in, in the depression and, and then in World War II. When you talk to people like that, like they had a bad life. My grandmother was born in 1920. I mean, her first 25 years,

• 42:25Speaker 03

  she saw horror. She was one of the nicest, happiest people I ever met. She never took debt out again, but that was the scar she had. But the rest of the stuff, she enjoyed life. So we survived through these things and we go through it. So when you hear NATO's bringing down, the question is, has the world changed since 1945? Of course it has. So I think the system is changing and I think people are buying gold as a, I don't know what the new system's gonna look like. I don't trust I have any idea what Donald Trump's gonna do. I'm gonna have gold for the time being, but at some point Bitcoin's gonna go up and gold is not gonna go up. It's gonna happen at some point soon.

• 42:57Anthony Pompliano?

  Do you think stocks will hit a new all time high before the end of the year?

• 43:00Speaker 03

  Yes, I do.

• 43:02Anthony Pompliano?

  So 10% correction now means you don't just go with 10% back up, right? Obviously I had to go up more to recover. Is it as simple as we get clarity on the tariffs? Maybe we get past, you know, April 2nd, everyone can understand what's going on and that's the driver? Or do you think that there has to be some true return to what I'll call, you know, QE where they're cutting rates and printing money? And that's really the driver?

• 43:28Speaker 03

  Honestly, I think it's a combination of, of, of both of that. I, I don't think anything's gonna happen on April 2nd that's gonna bring clarity. Not, I mean, from what I know about the reciprocal tax situation, it's gonna take months and it's still gonna be negotiations. The thing that has hurt the stock market the most, and this is why I believe it's intentional.

• 43:51Speaker 03

  He's waffled on tariffs when they have an impact, but what he hasn't waffled on is there is, I mean, when Besen says, there's no Trump put. Yesterday, Donald Trump said, I won't bend. Like, they're, they're sending a message that they don't care about the stock market. When he said, the Chinese think in hundreds of years, we think in quarters. There is a truth to that, but I mean, he's literally-

• 44:17Anthony Pompliano?

  I mean, that was such a fire line, right? Like, like, again, there's plenty of people who don't like on whatever, but that is one of the hard truths that Americans do not want to hear.

• 44:25Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 44:26Anthony Pompliano?

  Right, is their long-term thinking, we're short-term thinking. And I would argue that with him in office, we don't even think in quarters, like, pretty much the media is thinking in hours. I know multiple people who work at these publications and they wake up and they're like, I have to wake up earlier because this guy's already doing stuff at six o'clock in the morning and I want to be first to cover it. It's crazy.

• 44:46Speaker 03

  It is crazy. And, and the person saying, we think in quarters, he's tweeting or posting all day long.

• 44:52Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah.

• 44:53Speaker 03

  And I literally was getting a coffee yesterday and I look on that and I'm like, 200% tariff on all alcohol coming from Europe.

• 45:01Anthony Pompliano?

  Minutes, minutes after they announced the 50%, right?

• 45:04Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 45:04Anthony Pompliano?

  The, um, have you ever seen the clip? Uh, I'm gonna, um, there's a documentary that was created. Uh, it is called, I think, The Art of the Surge, if I remember correctly. Um, and it follows his campaign and it's fascinating to watch because you essentially get behind the scenes look at how he and his team operates. So there's some political elements to it, to kind of ignore that stuff, right? But, but if you watch it, it's an episodic thing and you get to see him interacting with his team. And there was this famous clip that went very viral online because he's sitting at a, at a table and he's watching, I think it was a debate or a speech.

• 45:46Anthony Pompliano?

  And as he hears what's going on the TV, he turns to a woman who, uh, she's known as the human printer because she walks around with a, uh, mobile printer and she prints out physical papers that he can read it because he doesn't like to use his phone.

• 46:00Speaker 03

  Yep.

• 46:00Anthony Pompliano?

  And he is dictating to her what to tweet. And the camera shows him and it cuts to her computer. And so you can see like what he's saying and what she's typing. The like randomly capitalized letters, the all caps, you know, the multiple X, that's not actually him writing it. It is somebody on the team who understands how he does tweet when he tweets.

• 46:25Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 46:25Anthony Pompliano?

  But they're the ones who are typing it. And so what always surprises me when I see tweets like the 200%, you know, and the way it's written and all stuff is that passed a filter. Did I get posted without like going through a filter? And everyone was still like, you know, publish, which tells me that this is maybe more strategic than if it was just somebody, you know, sometimes I tweet things and it doesn't go through a filter. And you're like, ah, I maybe should have thought that went through a little bit more. You know, of course they're going to critique this one word. I should have phrased that better or whatever, right? He's still President of the United States. He's still like, they're, they're not going to just give him his phone and be like, you know, knock yourself out, right?

• 47:06Anthony Pompliano?

  So it then begs the question of when you hear Besant and Lutnick and all these guys talk, I think I'm just impressed maybe by how cohesive they are in a situation where it would be very easy for them to break from the president because their friends are calling them, they're like, like the pressures of this. Essentially everyone you care about, you're hurting.

• 47:31Speaker 03

  Mm hmm.

• 47:33Anthony Pompliano?

  Which is a very weird dynamic, but they all are, we're doing this. We don't care. We're steadfast in it, you know, whatever. Do you read at all into the fact that if one of them dissents or one of them breaks, does it kind of fall apart? Now all of a sudden you've got the president standing by himself and he doesn't have to support the Treasury Secretary or Commerce or whatever?

• 47:55Speaker 03

  So this is a great question, and this is one of the things I want to say for people to calm down a little bit. I think that point there is it's both good in one sense. Meaning when he was president, the first time he was clearly learning on the job. He brought in a lot of people and, and, and it's been reported. He, he hired a bunch of people that had their own opinions. They're very strong and things kind of broke down. Right now, the fact that you have everyone coming out with the same message is very unique. Now, I will say last night, there was a post in X by Charlie Gasparino.

• 48:32Speaker 03

  Saying someone in the White House has said effectively that we've reached a point in the market that it's starting to have an impact and the White House is now having conversations that maybe this has kind of gone a little too far. I think within an hour, it came out that it was from outside the White House and that they have not changed anything inside. And so you can take that two ways. I, and I, again, I, this is one of the reasons why I like to listen to other congressmen and senators speak because they're not in the White House, but they're getting pressure from their constituents and the pressure is growing because when the stock market goes down, it becomes an issue. And for everyone out there, that's a good

• 49:15Speaker 03

  thing to know that, okay, we're a democracy. If stocks are going down, my big fear is you open up Pandora's box, it starts to spiral out of control. I don't mind a 10% correction. When you ask me, do I think stocks will go back to highs? Whether it happens in November or in May of next year is relevant to me. I think our earnings will be good. I think there won't be a recession. I think the goals of the administration are incredibly important. And regardless of what you feel about the president, we can't sit here and let debt to GDP be at this level and let the fiscal deficit be at these levels because we have no room. God forbid there was a recession. We have no room to do anything and we will

• 49:56Speaker 03

  have failed auctions. So I think the, the messaging out of the White House at this point, it's been impressive that it's cohesive. I think it needs to stay that way. I just think we gotta start making sure the stock market doesn't keep moving at a pace that is this fast.

• 50:13Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah. One of the things I was talking with a friend at dinner the other night is with Biden, there was not a lot of action. Like there wasn't the frenetic pace of things getting done, but also there wasn't a lot of information. And you know, Chris, but oh, he, you know, he is being hidden. Nobody wants to, you know, his cognitive decline, whatever. Other people would say like, hey, he's busy. He's being the president, right? He's not talking to the media, whatever. But like, lack of action, lack of access actually created in a weird way, uh, very calm markets.

• 50:44Anthony Pompliano?

  Trump is the exact opposite. Not only do you have a frenetic pace of action, but also he's posting, they're interviewing there. I mean, it, I don't know how Letnick and Besen are getting anything done. They're doing like 10 interviews a day each. Right? I mean, it's incredible to see, not only do you have a president who is obviously high energy and, and you know, kind of very fast paced, but he's surrounding himself with people like this. And so to me, that's also contributing a lot to the like uncertainty and the, and the chaos a little bit. It's not just the actions, but the fact that every single hour you're getting new information. And then that makes people feel like, hey, things are moving faster than they really are. And so to me, that again, is part of the design.

• 51:25Speaker 03

  Yep.

• 51:26Anthony Pompliano?

  Right? Is keep doing the interviews, keep talking to the press, keep getting the word out there. And if we change our mind, if we change tactics, if there's an update, like we immediately have the information out there. Versus the past administration, which was almost the exact opposite. It was like, we're not saying anything. I mean, even to the point where the southern border was basically wide open and people were like, hey, what's going on? And they're like, we don't know what you're talking about.

• 51:48Speaker 03

  So I'm going to give, I'm going to give you some props here. For, for those of you who don't watch Anthony's daily stuff from the desk. What he just said there, as someone who's followed markets for a long time, that's a nuance in terms of paying attention to what is actually happening. Scott Besen has been on TV almost every single day. It's, it's amazing. And you go back and say, how often was Janet Yellen on TV?

• 52:11Anthony Pompliano?

  Never.

• 52:11Speaker 03

  Never. And so you're in a point where they are bringing messages. You may not like what the message is right now. But to your point, if they want to quickly pivot and move, this is all part of what they're trying to do. There is no doubt in my mind that there is a plan. Again, you can disagree, and I do with the execution on the, okay, we're putting tariffs, 200%, like random number. I, it impacts markets. But I also believe that whether the stock market falls 10% or 20% in a period of six weeks. If five weeks from now, it takes back half of that, it doesn't matter. Like, I don't think at the end of the day, that disrupts and creates a recession.

• 52:54Speaker 03

  What will create a recession is if the stock market goes down 30%, it stays there for two years, and then this whole thing is a disaster. But the only way for that to truly happen is if companies are going to start firing people, and that's not going to happen. So everyone just needs to tap their brakes. They should watch you on the daily shows because what you just said is a very nuanced way that should bring people. You're not going to read that in the paper. They are out there, they are trying to get the message across. And it's very important when you're trying to do something as troubling as this is, it very seldom gets talked about. So you guys hear this. With our debt situation and the amount of debt we have rolling off and the deficit we have, if we don't do this, we will have a failed auction at some point. And when you have a failed auction, the market's going to fall that way.

• 53:37Speaker 03

  And when it falls that way, you're not in control of it because there's nothing you can do other than print more money and get back into the same hole. So they're trying to do something which, trust me, is very, very important. Just type in Ray Dalio, beautiful deleveraging into ChatGPT, and it will bring up exactly what they're trying to do, which is find money from all different places, just like you would if you were in a house and you had a mortgage and all of a sudden you realize, okay, I lost my job. I got a new job, but my expenses are above my income. That's where we are as a country. We have a huge amount of debt that we have to roll over every year, and our expenses are above our income by almost $2 trillion. We have to get that in line, just like you were a homeowner.

• 54:22Speaker 03

  And this doesn't get put out in the media in the last administration, but that's the reality coming out of COVID. We spent too much.

• 54:28Anthony Pompliano?

  I completely agree. Where can we send people to find you on the internet?

• 54:32Speaker 03

  You can find me on YouTube, you can find me on Substack, you can find me on X.

• 54:36Anthony Pompliano?

  Visser Labs?

• 54:37Speaker 03

  Visser Labs and some form of it for all different handles on those. But you can find me there, but Visser Labs has all my stuff on it too.

• 54:43Anthony Pompliano?

  Your Substack is excellent, YouTube highly suggestible. We'll link to both in the description. Thank you so much for doing this. We'll do it again next week.

• 54:48Speaker 03

  Love it. Thanks, Anthony.