#1428 Sam Callahan | Bitcoin Will EXPLODE With Global Liquidity

Sam Callahan writes simple, insightful updates on bitcoin called “The News Block Weekly Newsletter.” In this conversation, we talk about global liquidity, why bitcoin is so sensitive to it, Paul Tudor Jones comments on bitcoin, companies putting bitcoin on balance sheets, interest rates, and where you can get smarter on a daily basis. ======================= Buy book: https://www.amazon.com/Live-Extraordinary-Life-Anthony-Pompliano/dp/0857199927/ ======================= Xapo Bank, the world’s first fully licensed Bitcoin-enabled bank, offers military-grade security with an unmatched blend of physical and digital security, as well as pioneering regulatory oversight, so your funds are always protected. Beyond secure storage, they enable you to grow and use your Bitcoin. Earn daily interest in Bitcoin, spend with zero FX fees using a global card, and make instant payments via the Lightning Network for unrivalled access and convenience. Visit ⁠https://www.xapobank.com/pomp⁠ to join. ======================= The Pomp Podcast is powered by BetOnline.ag, the premier crypto-friendly place to gamble on politics and sports, casino, poker and horse racing. BetOnline.ag gives you the ability to use Bitcoin and more than a dozen altcoins to make deposits and withdraw your winnings. There are no crypto transaction fees, and processing is instantaneous and secure. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://promotions.betonline.ag/pomp⁠⁠⁠⁠ and use PROMO CODE: POMP100 to receive a 100% matching bonus on any crypto deposit. BetOnline.ag is available in nearly every country around the world, making it the top global gaming destination for crypto users. ======================= Pomp writes a daily letter to over 265,000+ investors about business, technology, and finance. He breaks down complex topics into easy-to-understand language while sharing opinions on various aspects of each industry. You can subscribe at https://pomp.substack.com/ ======================= View 10k+ open startup jobs: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://dreamstartupjob.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Enroll in my Crypto Academy: https://www.thecryptoacademy.io/

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:02Anthony Pompliano?

  What's up everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Many of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them for hours while I ask questions in an effort to learn. So it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform, watch episodes on YouTube, and tell your friends and family about the podcast. My goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode. What's up guys? Today we've got Sam Callahan here and we got a great episode for you. We talk about global liquidity. We talk about why Bitcoin is so sensitive to it, what Paul Tudor Jones is talking about, how corporate CFOs are putting so much Bitcoin on their balance sheet, and why they're going to start realizing that dollars are liabilities and not assets.

• 0:47Anthony Pompliano?

  Then we get into what's going on with interest rates, what the Federal Reserve is thinking, and how you can get smarter on a daily basis, where Sam gets his information and where you can too. I really enjoyed this conversation and I think you guys will learn a lot from it. So here's my latest episode with Sam Callahan.

• 1:02Speaker 01

  Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only.

• 1:26Anthony Pompliano?

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• 2:11Anthony Pompliano?

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• 2:30Anthony Pompliano?

  I thought a great place to start is you did this report with Lynn Alden about Bitcoin and its relationship to global liquidity. It's a good time to talk about this because global liquidity seems to be increasing, M2 money supplies expanding, they're making capital cheaper. Why do you think Bitcoin is so sensitive to global liquidity compared to other assets?

• 2:48Speaker 02

  Yeah, I teamed up with Lynn Alden on that report and the reason why we thought, it was like our hypothesis that Bitcoin would be the most sensitive and that's what we found. But our theory was that other asset classes, there's different factors that drive the prices. So for instance, like equities, equities have like dividends and earnings that it's not just liquidity driving their, the price action, as well as they have a structural bid from like retirement accounts, right, 401ks. So even if liquidity gets drained out of the system, you know, that passive bid can kind of buffer those prices up. So kind of distorts its relationship with global liquidity and that's just equities. Gold, similar, has like a mixed relationships with liquidity. It's scarce, it benefits from pro

• 3:32Speaker 02

  liquidity environments, but it's also seen as like a safe haven asset. So when liquidity gets drained, you know, prices fall, people kind of flock to it as a safe haven. So it's not just a pure, you know, correlated asset to liquidity either. Now Bitcoin, you know, risk assets tend to do better in pro liquidity environments. Investors kind of move further out on the risk curve. Bitcoin in today, I think other people disagree, but it's broadly seen as a risk asset still. And so it's going to benefit from pro liquidity environments. It doesn't have earnings or dividends driving its stock or price like stocks. And so it's very purely correlated to liquidity or so we thought. And so all those things, it's global as well. Like if you look at like emerging market stocks, for instance, they

• 4:16Speaker 02

  could kind of break with liquidity as well because they can have like very specific events happen in their economies that kind of are specific to them. So some kind of currency crisis, economic crisis, natural disaster or something like that could kind of help break that liquidity condition. Whereas Bitcoin is just this like global asset, right? It's also very scarce fixed supply. So it's very small too still. So it's going to get thrown around more than other things with like the waves of liquidity coming in and out. So for all those reasons, we thought that Bitcoin would be the most pure barometer of liquidity conditions. And that's actually what we found with the data as well.

• 4:54Anthony Pompliano?

  So if we go back to 2021, obviously, interest rates were at 0%, we just printed trillions of dollars, asset prices were at or near all time highs, and the Fed comes out and says, we're going to raise interest rates. They ended up doing it at the fastest pace in history. I think every person that is in the investing world would say, obviously, asset prices fall and stay down until we start to cut interest rates. Instead, what we saw was Bitcoin stocks and many other assets, they did fall initially, but even though rates were still above 5%, they all came back at or near all time highs. And so you have the S and P hitting new all time highs, you have Bitcoin hitting new all time highs in a high rate environment. Why is that happening? Or why did that happen?

• 5:39Speaker 02

  I think there's a couple of different factors. I mean, for one, you know, we do live in this environment where the fiscal policy just kept spending, right? I mean, this is like the fiscal

• 5:48Anthony Pompliano?

  politicians didn't get the memo?

• 5:49Speaker 02

  No, they didn't get the memo. And so in this period of like fiscal dominance is what you call it, as interest rates rise, it actually widens deficit more. And so this is when typical monetary policy tools that are used to fight inflation to combat it actually do the opposite. It's like this backwards where the fiscal deficits get so big that's actually the main driver of inflation. And so if the interest expense is increased as the Fed keeps raising interest rates, well, that's going to be a problem, right? That's going to keep things elevated. Another thing that was happening was you had a kind of, as the Fed was engaging in, say, quantitative tightening, there was like offsets happening, right? There was the reverse repo kind of getting drained down. There was also the Treasury General Account that Yellen was kind of manipulating

• 6:33Speaker 02

  to kind of add liquidity to the system as well. So that was kind of buffering asset prices. And so there's kind of these offsets that were happening at the same time that I think was kind of purposeful because they didn't want everything to get drained right at the system and everything to fall right away. They wanted to kind of try to have that soft landing that they always speak about. And so those are the different reasons, I think, why even though the Fed jacked interest rates at the fastest pace, you still saw asset prices kind of perform well in that environment.

• 7:02Anthony Pompliano?

  As they cut interest rates, is it as simple as interest rates go down, asset prices are going to continue going up? Or there are other things to consider, whether it's Bitcoin or stocks?

• 7:13Speaker 02

  Well, I think, you know, yes, I think when when they cut interest rates now borrowing is going to get cheaper. I think that's just generally good for liquidity and it's not just the Fed doing it, right? It's it's a central banks around the world. It's the ECB, it's the Bank of England, Bank of Canada. They've all started cutting rates. You have this coordinated action once again. And so I do think like as they cut rates, that's going to make borrowing cheaper. It's going to flood the market with more dollars because that's how dollars are created in this system. And asset prices are going to perform well. I think it kind of is that simple.

• 7:44Anthony Pompliano?

  And the US is cutting rates, but also we're seeing a number of these other central banks start to do that. How much emphasis do you put on global liquidity from the United States contributing to other places? And also those interest rates, like, is it a US story? Or do you have to, as an investor, look at global liquidity is global for a reason, right? And also those interest rates kind of around the world, obviously, are at different levels, depending on the country and the individual economy.

• 8:13Speaker 02

  Well, I think it is a US story. I mean, it is the largest global economy. We are the Federal Reserve, you know, dictates the price of money. The dollar is the global reserve currency. And so I think that's where most of the focus is on. I mean, everyone's kind of focused on China and kind of the stimulative activities they're doing there. But I mean, that's very different than if the Fed came out and did something similar. I mean, that would cause the market to really react to it. So I think that's the main story. I think you should focus on what the US is doing. And the Fed is kind of signaling that, okay, this is a this is a pivot. I think everyone was focused on this is a 25 basis cut or 50. But really, the trend is clear and we're in this regime change where the Fed's now easing monetary policy,

• 8:55Speaker 02

  where they were tightening before, and that's good for liquidity conditions.

• 8:59Anthony Pompliano?

  And when we look at, let's say, companies, they have these balance sheets. You've previously talked about there's kind of two different playbooks that they need to be aware of. One of them is holding cash and one of them is holding Bitcoin. Obviously, the dollar based strategy seems to be the same as an individual holding the cash. They just get devalued over time. What is it going to take for more and more people to realize that this Bitcoin strategy is actually something that can be used inside of corporations and done where it can actually be good for shareholders?

• 9:31Speaker 02

  Well, I've been asking myself that because you look at MicroStrategy, I mean, it's insane that another corporation hasn't followed suit right now because you just look at their stock performance and they've adopted a Bitcoin corporate treasury's reserve strategy. I mean, it's crazy. They've outperformed every single stock in the S and P 500 at this point. And so I think, you know, when it's in such a, it's kind of a change in thinking for these CFOs and these treasurers to really think about, you know, a dollar is no longer an asset, it's a liability. And they really need to think about that. And when you see Michael Saylor, not just think about it, but then say, oh, my gosh, we're going to put $500 million into Bitcoin right away. I mean, that just takes a very innovative thinker

• 10:12Speaker 02

  to identify that, but then to actually execute a strategy. I think you're starting to see kind of a change in thinking. You see some like companies on the margins, like the Metaplanets of the world, One Med Nets, Semler Scientifics start to do it. And I think they need to be like founder-led teams. Bill Miller talks about this, you know, founder-led teams. You have to think about the corporate governance, if they have the power to even implement a strategy like this, or if they're going to get a lot of pushback from the board or from their investor base, you know, they have to be really good about investor relations, of why they're doing it and, and looking at, you know, their balance sheet, saying, okay, this is actually how we can get a competitive advantage over our competitors. And, you know, having a case study like MicroStrategy now, where you can point to and say, look at what

• 10:56Speaker 02

  it's done for this company, not just from a, you know, performance standpoint, but like culturally, the entire narrative around MicroStrategy is completely shifted, right? And so I think now that we've seen that, it's going to be, this is kind of the cycle where I expect to see a lot more corporations start to get in here.

• 11:14Anthony Pompliano?

  So if more and more companies are going to do this, is it something where you just buy Bitcoin, leave it on the balance sheet? Or is it going to be something where it seems like Michael Saylor said, hey, I'm going to buy this, put it on the balance sheet, but now I'm going to almost go on offense. I'm going to start borrowing capital. I'm really going to go try to acquire as much Bitcoin as possible. Like, how do you think about offense versus defense with Bitcoin on the balance sheet for, you know, the average corporation where they may say, hey, you know, we believe in Bitcoin story, but we're not necessarily going to go and become the, you know, Bitcoin company, as I think maybe Michael Saylor has done?

• 11:44Speaker 02

  Well, I think that's like this, you know, when you get into Bitcoin as a corporation, I think that's a decision you have to make. But I think most are going to just be on the defensive side. They're going to say, hey, we have a opportunity to kind of... Diversify our balance sheet a little bit to protect ourselves against inflation as well as maybe rising geopolitical uncertainty. You know, a small allocation goes a long way. River put out a great report that said, you know, if you have 2% to 3% of Bitcoin and the rest cash, you will outperform the rate of inflation. And so a little bit goes a long way when it comes to Bitcoin. I think a lot of corporations will probably take that more conservative route. Now, the ones that really get it, that really can put on some of these more aggressive strategies and say, okay, no, we want to acquire as much Bitcoin as

• 12:28Speaker 02

  possible. You know, I think, again, you have to be kind of like a innovative, you know, led by an innovative thinker with the power to do something like that. And then you have to have the access to the capital markets. I mean, you have to be able to raise debt, both through the debt markets and the equity markets, and then to implement that Bitcoin strategy. That's just ultimately a choice. I think you have to have a lot of conviction to put on something like that. But I do think more and more people will do that because, I mean, you see this with Mara too. I mean, they put on their hodl strategy, and now they're doing the same thing. They're entering the convertible debt markets. And if you think about mining, it's one of the most competitive industries out there. And what's one competitive

• 13:11Speaker 02

  advantage that I'd say Mara has over other miners? It's the liquidity of their stock. It's how big they are. So they can actually go access the capital markets and put on a strategy like this, where smaller miners can't. And so they have that competitive advantage and they're leaning into it. And they're going to start, hey, we're actually going to put on this hodl strategy. We're going to put on the micro strategy playbook here. And if we're right, especially with the timing, then down the road, we're going to have a much bigger competitive advantage over somebody who did not do that. So I think it's just a matter of, you know, where you are, who you're led by, what you're able to do, whether you want to be more on the defensive side of things or the offensive. But I think it always starts with that first step, and then maybe more and more people will do the micro strategy playbook.

• 13:55Anthony Pompliano?

  How about private, like, small businesses? Right? One of the things that people have reached out to me over the years, they're like, cool, I see what Michael Stradis is doing. That's awesome. They're a publicly traded company worth billions of dollars. I run X local business. I have half a Bitcoin or a full Bitcoin on my balance sheet. What should I be doing? Like, is it the same thing? It's just like, hey, keep stacking Bitcoin and, you know, kind of use it as that defensive thing? Or do you think that kind of size matters? And maybe public companies versus private companies or big companies versus, you know, kind of small or medium sized businesses? There's something different that they should be thinking about when it comes to Bitcoin?

• 14:31Speaker 02

  Well, I think for somebody like a small business, I mean, every single one of these businesses have the same problem, which is like, if they're gonna, you know, have cash on their balance sheets, then again, it's a liability. And so they want to hold some Bitcoin that actually will appreciate in value and protect themselves against currency debasement. Then, yeah, I think, I think they should do that. And I think, you know, they don't have to do the whole micro strategy thing. We have to keep raising money and leverage your, your business to do something like that. Again, that's like your own personal risk tolerance and whether your business can handle something like that. Because obviously leverage has to be intelligent leverage is how Michael Saylor describes it. But a lot of these small business owners, I think it just makes sense to put some on their balance sheet. And, you know, instead of their cash, but make sure that they have like a working capital threshold

• 15:14Speaker 02

  to, you know, keep their business running operationally. And then anything left over, they can kind of put it into Bitcoin to save more long term. And then they can use that Bitcoin down the road. It's just a way to save. So they can use it to, you know, reinvest into the business down the road. But until they make a decision of how to allocate that capital, it makes sense to hold it in Bitcoin instead of something that's gonna lose value. Right? So that's how I think of it as like a small business owner. And going back to that same River report, they say they're seeing a ton of uptick in their customer base of small businesses. So people are doing this, they just don't get the headlines of the micro strategies or the Mars of the world.

• 15:52Anthony Pompliano?

  It's not as interesting if the local restaurant does it compared to a micro strategy doing it with billions of dollars.

• 15:56Speaker 02

  Yeah, no, but that reminds me of, I was just actually talking to a small business owner and they own a restaurant up in California and they've been doing this since. I think 2018. So really good time to get in back in 2018. They said that their Bitcoin holdings is now worth more than the entire business.

• 16:14Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah, it surprised me.

• 16:14Speaker 02

  Yeah, which is, which is crazy, right? So that just shows like how impactful a Bitcoin strategy can, can be to any, any business that adopts it.

• 16:23Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah. Paul Tudor Jones recently came out. He said that all roads lead to inflation. He's long gold. He's long Bitcoin. He's long some commodities. And then he thinks that the NASDAQ is also serving as some sort of inflation hedge for young people.

• 16:36Anthony Pompliano?

  Do you think corporations will buy into the inflation story? Like, let me get some Bitcoin, but I'm also going to maybe get some gold or some of these other inflation assets? Or do you think that this is really a Bitcoin only story? And, you know, obviously Michael Saylor and Michael Strategy just bought Bitcoin. We've seen Meta Planet, they're just buying Bitcoin. There's a couple of other companies that have started to do this. I haven't really heard of anyone being like, I'm going to buy some gold and Bitcoin. But do you think that CFOs and corporations may actually take more of a Paul Tudor Jones approach and say, let's build an investment portfolio of kind of inflation hedge assets?

• 17:07Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, I could see that happening. I mean, especially again, if they, they see Bitcoin as just like one, you know, part of a more diversified portfolio. That would make sense to me. Now, gold has its problems, right? I mean, it's physical. It's harder like, and like, so these companies, they can't, they can only buy a certain amount of securities before they have to reclassify themselves as an investment company. I think it's 40%. So if you want to play gold and have an ETF, well, okay, but that's a security. And so, and if you want to have the NASDAQ, that's a security as well. And so that's one of the things that Bitcoin offers these corporations is that we'll never have to reclassify. They're going to hold as much Bitcoin as a percentage of the balance sheet as they want, because it's a commodity.

• 17:46Speaker 02

  Now, if they want to buy real gold, I mean, they could do that as well. That's a commodity. But again, it's physical. I mean, they have to deal with all the logistics of getting the physical gold and storing it and securing it. Bitcoin being digital makes it a lot easier. But yes, I do think that corporations will probably start to diversify. Because up to this point, from my understanding, most CFOs and treasurers, it's, it's pretty simple. I mean, they, they're just like, we're in treasuries, right? We're in, we're in cash and cash like equivalents. That's, that's our balance sheet. It's just, it's just now. That they're starting to think about these risks really since 2020 when inflation started to ramp back up really quickly in terms of the CPI because that's really what they track, right?

• 18:25Speaker 02

  I think Bitcoiners and gold bugs, we kind of look at the empty money supply and other measures of inflation. But now that CPI is ramped up, the cost of living is increasing, their costs are increasing. And so now these CFOs and treasurers are starting to think about, okay, how do we protect ourselves?

• 18:43Anthony Pompliano?

  Now, there is something called a reverse Thiel's law, which is basically like bad money flows to good money, right? Or capital flows from bad money to good money.

• 18:56Anthony Pompliano?

  And so there's this idea that like Bitcoin was going to take away economic value from dollars. It's kind of like fiat currencies are bad money, they get devalued, everyone's going to go to Bitcoin. One of the things I've been thinking a lot through is like, well, stable coins are pretty popular. And it's kind of this like new wrapper for the fiat money. And so it almost feels like Bitcoin and dollars are winning together. You know, in maybe, maybe it's a short term thing, maybe it's a long term thing. Like, how do you balance, you know, maybe the Bitcoin critics are like, oh, Bitcoin is bad because it's a threat to the dollar. But actually, the data points seem to be like, well, the dollar seems to be doing just fine. You know, there's new digital rails and Bitcoin obviously is doing well as well.

• 19:30Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, the stablecoin growth over the last three years or so has been crazy. I think it's over like $450 billion now. I mean, there's clear demand there. That's like, if you point to like crypto, that's the one thing that's found product market fit is these stablecoins. I just saw the Bridge acquisition by Stripe. I mean, that's a big, big point right there. That's something like a signal to look at. And the way I see it is that, yes, I think that you talk about network effects in Bitcoin a lot. Dollar has a pretty strong network effect. And now these stablecoins just improve accessibility. I mean, you had people like Paul Ryan talk about also, you know, this is a way for us to kind of increase dollar accessibility

• 20:11Speaker 02

  and, and improve the dollar stance and the global stage with stablecoins. And so it makes a lot of sense to me that that's going to keep growing. But the problem is that it still lacks, it's not a store value, right? That's what Bitcoin has that all these stablecoins don't have because it really is just like a wrapper for fiat. And they're going to keep debasing their currencies. And the other thing that stablecoins have that people need to think about is you're still trusting a centralized issuer. I mean, we saw the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. What can happen when Circle holds all of its reserves in one bank? And then its peg broke and suddenly it was like, oh, this is actually really centralized.

• 20:51Speaker 02

  You're trusting this, you know, private issuer of these, these dollars, so to speak, these, these crypto dollars is what Nick Carter would describe them. But it kind of depends on the reliability of the issuer itself. And this is where you get into the conversation of CBDCs because they're like, well, we, we shouldn't be a private issuer for these digital dollars. They should be a central bank backed, you know, dollar because we are the most stable issuer. You know, you can trust us. We have a money printer. There's no liquidity risk with us. You know, we can hold the reserves at the central bank. And so this is kind of this conversation that's been developing over many, many years. But to me, there's, you still can't replace Bitcoin because Bitcoin is that store of value, right?

• 21:35Speaker 02

  Can't get manipulated. It doesn't have a single issuer. It's decentralized. And so I see them growing over the same time. You've got these stablecoins. You've got the Bitcoin.

• 21:47Speaker 02

  But the problem is that like over a long period of time, the people who adopt Bitcoin, they're gonna, their purchasing power is going to go up over time. And it's like that, that thing you always hear where if your neighbor is getting richer, everyone notes, notices, right? So the people that hold Bitcoin over time, if you're holding stablecoins and your neighbor is holding Bitcoin, you're going to look over your neighbor who's living a good life, going on multiple vacations. And then you're going to continually get poorer over time. And eventually you're going to be like, well, why am I holding these stablecoins? Even if they're faster, even the shiny wrapper. I should probably hold some Bitcoin as well. And so like, that's kind of like that law that you spoke of where the good money gradually will take out the bad money.

• 22:25Speaker 02

  But that can happen over a long, long time. And that's kind of how I see it happening. I see the dollar kind of being fine for a long time. Then Bitcoin kind of in parallel with it. And then I see like weaker currencies really fading off. And then at the end, it's like, I think just more and more people will recognize Bitcoin as superior because it actually holds its value.

• 22:46Anthony Pompliano?

  What's interesting to me is Bitcoin's kind of promise, obviously, is electronic cash, right? And it feels like right now Bitcoin has won as a store of value. You know, it is the dominant store of value coming out of this kind of digital crypto world.

• 23:03Anthony Pompliano?

  Does it need to become a transaction and medium of exchange and kind of a payments type technology in order to fully reach its promise? Or if it just becomes kind of digital gold, is that still a win and we can kind of claim victory and, you know, we should be happy with that?

• 23:21Speaker 02

  Well, I think even if Bitcoin allows people to save in something that's free of debasement and that can't be manipulated, I think that is a win. But I think if you look around the world, even today, I mean, yes, in the Western world, primarily a store of value. I mean, that's how we see it. But there's other people around the world that use it as medium of exchange. I mean, in people in authoritarian regimes who are censored, you know, they use it to transact. There's people in Africa who use it to transact quite frequently. There's people who have really high remittance payments that use it to transact. It's not the dominant way that people use Bitcoin today, but you know, they are using it as a medium of exchange.

• 24:04Speaker 02

  It works as a medium of exchange. And then there's different scaling solutions that are happening, lightening. And that's, I think that's going to keep accelerating over the years. Bitcoin's still kind of young in that second layer scaling solutions of for, you know, improving the transaction speeds and things like that. And then there's like developments like e-cash that people can have thought about, like, you know, developing with a Fediment. Protocols that have different trade offs in terms of privacy as well as this transaction speeds that allow Bitcoin to be used as a medium exchange. So I think that we're just going to see like developments happen over the next decades or so of how Bitcoin can improve as a medium exchange. But again, like, the biggest problem Bitcoin solves right now

• 24:47Speaker 02

  is being able to save something that's free of debasement. And that's a huge problem that everyone, every corporation, every individual faces right now. And Bitcoin is serving that very well as a store of value.

• 25:00Anthony Pompliano?

  You recently talked about macro models that fail to incorporate future policy interventions are basically breaking.

• 25:08Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 25:09Anthony Pompliano?

  And so it's, you know, I always laugh that the Fed has this like impossible job. I'm gonna look at backwards data, make decisions today to predict the future. But what you're talking about here is these models that are trying to understand asset prices and GDP growth, etc. They can't incorporate things they don't know, right? Kind of these future interventions. So explain a little bit as like what that challenge is and then like, what do you think they should be doing maybe instead?

• 25:32Speaker 02

  Well, that was like, there's a really good report from Alliance Bernstein that's called Debt Dead or Alive, I think. I think everyone should check it out. It was a really good report. They were just looking at kind of what we talk about a lot with the spending problem. And they're looking at the CBO projections. CBO projections are quite ridiculous, in my opinion, because they're out to 2054, looking at the debt GDP, they say, hey, it's going to be like 175%. But they assume the inflation rate is going to be 2% the entire time and that there's never going to be a recession. Right? And so

• 26:05Anthony Pompliano?

  Sounds awesome.

• 26:06Speaker 02

  Sounds great. Sounds great. And we know, like, when you look at the global financial crisis, as well as, you know, the pandemic, how these crises can result in huge responses from the fiscal and monetary sides that just jack up the debt to GDP like substantially, right? And so to not incorporate any of those things and look at those projections, it's just nonsensical. So what the Alliance Bernstein, there's a little like paragraph that they were like, there is a secret amongst the modeling community in DC and in academia, whereas if you do any of these projections or try to make it make sense in terms of how we're going to pay for it with the CBO projections.

• 26:47Speaker 02

  The models break if you don't include some kind of intervention, some kind of policy intervention. And by policy intervention, they mean some kind of recession and then there's a huge response that comes in. And so it just doesn't make sense, like the arithmetic doesn't make sense. And so that's like the secret that I think Paul Tudor Jones is talking about, Stanley Chuck Millers talking about. You're looking at discretionary versus mandatory spending over the next 30, 40 years. And then it just doesn't make sense how we're going to pay for it. And that's when it comes back to, oh, they're probably going to try to debase the currency. That's probably they're going to try to inflate away their way out of it.

• 27:25Speaker 02

  And that's the, the other playbook that I mentioned, the IMF playbook, published a paper in 2015 called the liquidation of government debt. They laid it all out and that's exactly what they're doing now. And so in that environment, they're like, okay, we want to hold a hard assets. So that's what all these really smart investors are talking about now. The models don't make sense, they break, they're going to try to inflate their way out of it, you know? And so protect yourself.

• 27:52Anthony Pompliano?

  One of the investors that's doing this is Anthony Deedon. Most people watching or listening to this are not going to know who that is, but he's a very well respected, very good investor. I believe he lives in Switzerland. I'm aware of maybe one or two interviews he's ever done. But he has a quote that he put out where he basically said, the compelling thing about gold is the risks we don't take by holding it. And so talk a little bit about that being very similar to, I think, a lot of Bitcoiners saying, the reason why I hold Bitcoin is because I don't want to take the risk of holding dollars or anything else.

• 28:30Speaker 02

  Yeah, so Anthony Deedon, I think he resonated with me. You brought up that interview. I mean, I thought he was brilliant. He's a sound money guy and he was talking about gold and yeah, so like it's about the risk you don't take when you own gold. That's what makes it a compelling investment for him. Said, the risk you don't take owning gold could fill volumes. And that's why I own Bitcoin and people don't understand that. They see it as such a risk on asset, but I see it as a risk off asset. It doesn't have. Counterparty risk, right? Duration risk, it doesn't have, you don't have to worry about like the cash flows of the business or the management team if you're looking at a stock. All of these things, it's just Bitcoin is this asset that's unchanging and people don't

• 29:14Speaker 02

  understand this when they hear about it, they're like, oh, this thing's very volatile. But really, it's very simple, the way it functions. I mean, there's only ever going to be 21 million Bitcoin. It's, it's, it's an asset that will never change. And when you look out into the world that is continuously changing with all these different risks, Bitcoin is very unique in that, in that, in that way. And gold is probably its closest comparison. And so when somebody who's a little bit older, like Anthony Deedon, they might be attracted to gold and look at Bitcoin and be like, oh, this cryptocurrency, it's such a risky thing. But I own Bitcoin for the exact same reasons that Anthony Deedon owns gold. And I wonder what you thought when you saw that quote too.

• 29:56Anthony Pompliano?

  I mean, you said earlier something that I think people don't quite understand, which is if you're a corporate CFO, the dollar is a liability and Bitcoin is an asset. And that's not how they think about it. They think, you know, the dollar is this offensive thing. When you start to understand that the dollar is going to be devalued, when you start to understand that bonds, like, you know, Paul Tudor Jones recently said he owns no fixed income. I think people are very surprised by that. But it's like, look, you know, if you look at TLT is, you know, something I look at quite often because over the last five years, it's down like 25, 30%. And so you're like, okay, I get, you know, hold to maturity, all this nonsense, whatever. But it's like, no, no, you're like,

• 30:39Anthony Pompliano?

  you are losing value, holding this thing. And so in a weird way, you kind of have to like, have this contrarian view of the traditional assets to even understand what Deedon's saying, right? Like so many people are like, what do you mean, you're holding gold? Like gold is, you know, risky to me, or Bitcoin is risky, or whatever.

• 31:01Anthony Pompliano?

  But then you're like, what are you holding in your portfolio? And they're like, I have cash. Like, I'm super safe. And you're like, whoa, whoa, whoa, hold on a minute.

• 31:07Speaker 02

  Yeah, treasury, risk free asset.

• 31:08Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah, yeah, yeah, risk free. I mean, literally, right? Like, it is non-controversial to talk about a risk-free asset being treasuries. And you're like, well, actually, let me explain how this works.

• 31:18Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 31:18Anthony Pompliano?

  And so I just think that Bitcoiners maybe, you know, are early to understanding some of this stuff more so. But I always come back to this idea of like, what is it going to take for the public narrative to change? Where then cash or in treasuries and stuff like is seen as risky? I think that's very hard, right? You know, like, there's still people who, if you go and you ask them like for personal finance advice, like, we'll just save your way to financial security. Like, hey, man, that's like way harder now than it was 50 years ago. And so maybe it's time. Maybe it's just like, we all get older and then we're the old people, right? Then we like tell our kids or whatever and, you know, you have to change it like through time.

• 31:58Anthony Pompliano?

  But I do think that Deedon is unique in that he's older. But he sees something that a lot of older people don't see because he's had to change his mind about like fiat currencies. Where it's much easier, I think, for young people to be like, you know, what's this new thing? I'm kind of more open-minded, you're more mentally flexible, and so you go and you do the work.

• 32:15Speaker 02

  Yeah, maybe it's some more pain for for bondholders, right? I think like, thinking about things in real terms is something that people don't think about either. Like, taking into account, yeah, okay, I have a bond, I protected the principal and earned the interest, great. But did you actually outperform inflation during that time? Like, no, you lost out in real terms, I think. Especially people that might not be as more sophisticated, don't really think in real terms. And that's so important in this world, that's more inflationary. And that's, I think, the big underlying theme is we are probably entering this more inflationary world. And when you think about portfolio allocation. AQR Capital put out a really good report on this a couple of years ago, just looking

• 32:58Speaker 02

  at how the correlation changes between bonds and stocks in inflationary environments. When in the past inflationary environments, they go positive, right? And so all of modern portfolio theory is built around this like inverse relationship between stocks and bonds. You know, bonds are able to be that buffer when stocks fall. Fed cuts rates, bonds rise, kind of eases off some of that loss for the portfolio. In inflationary environments, that's not the case. They actually move together. And so that's what we saw in, you know, 2022. We saw them both crash and that had everyone scared because they're like, okay, what do we do now? Where do I hide? We haven't seen this in like 20 years, right?

• 33:39Speaker 02

  But AQR Capital was even, he was like, the weird thing has been this, the last 20, 30 years where interest rates have just gone straight down and they have been moving adversely all the time. But really, when you zoom all the way out, they actually, for a lot of the times, they move together. And so there's just this regime change where people have to look for alternative investments to diversify now, if they think we are entering this more inflationary environment. And so that's my base case. When I just look out into the world, I see more conflict, deglobalization, I see the demographic situations, I see the spending. All those things are all inflationary. And so if we are entering this inflationary environment, you have to change the way that

• 34:21Speaker 02

  you diversify your portfolios and how you, you know, reduce risk by enhancing returns. And I think nothing is better than Bitcoin and Bitcoin has shown that over the last, you know, whatever 10 years you could say.

• 34:34Anthony Pompliano?

  When you do the calculation, I call it, you know, kind of like napkin math on, okay, I'm going to calculate the real return of stocks. I'm going to calculate the real return on bonds. What is the number that you use for the inflation rate? And what you're really trying to get at is like, you know, right now they claim that it's 2.4%. There's base effects, there's, you know, the measurement of CPI, there's all these things that kind of feed into it. Do you have a number that you just say, hey, this is the number I'm going to use both in terms of, maybe it accounts for the current situation, but also I think it'll be a fair number to use to evaluate, you know, kind of forward 10-year returns or anything like that?

• 35:11Speaker 02

  I look at the the growth rate of the money supply, which has been historically seven to eight percent. So, and then that's increased, you know, in different parts, but if you really stretch it out, it's usually around eight percent. So I think that's actually the right rate that you should use for the inflation. I mean, we know that CPI has its problems with its methodology. I don't think it accurately reflects people's, the rate of inflation. I think the best way to think about it is that inflation is a monetary phenomenon and that you should look at the rate of the M2 money supply growth. And so that's about seven to eight percent. So I think that's actually your hurdle rate.

• 35:51Speaker 02

  And then if you think about even further, like, it's kind of like for businesses, it's like you're an investment manager. It's like the S and P 500 almost like that's kind of your hurdle rate too. Cause that's like another option, but you know, if I'm just thinking about like inflation, that's, that's what you should be beating. You gotta beat eight percent and so every year. And so there's not many assets that have actually been able to do that. And Bitcoin is one of them.

• 36:14Anthony Pompliano?

  Now, when you use that number, obviously during the pandemic, when the official number spikes to, you know, over nine percent, let's say, are you thinking, okay, the official number is nine, so add another seven or eight on top of that. And that's your real number or like, how do you think about these like spikes? And the reason why it becomes interesting is if you think that the world is going to become more inflationary because of the debt problem, then actually seven or eight is what it's been doing, you know, looking backwards, but looking forwards, maybe it's actually 10 or 12.

• 36:42Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 36:42Anthony Pompliano?

  You know, some higher number.

• 36:43Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, if there's a huge jump in it, like you have to take that into account. I mean, you gotta understand, like, people even talk about the M2 money supply growth year over year going negative recently. But again, if you look at it since 2020, it's still up 40%. Like, yeah, it's dropped a little bit of the year, but you have to take into account that huge increase over the last like four years. And so that definitely changes specifically, I mean, that's what. Michael Saylor had a really good presentation where he talked about this because he kind of pins it like since they did the MicroStrategy Bitcoin playbook, which is like August 2020. That's when he saw all this huge M2 money supply growth. And it's like, what has outperformed that over that time period? And it's really just like Bitcoin.

• 37:26Speaker 02

  I mean, I mean, there's certain individual stocks that you can pick. But again, that that's tricky for people to do. I mean, they have to understand like what they're investing in. They have to do the research to pick those like individual stocks. And then there's all those risks that I talked about, like business risk. But yeah, Bitcoin is one of the only ones that have outperformed since since August 2020. When you look at the M2 money supply growth. And so if you haven't been beating that with some of the other investments, you're losing in real terms, you know? So it's it's one of the things that makes Bitcoin such an attractive asset, just how much it compounds every year that it can actually outperform the rate of currency debasement that's happening.

• 38:09Speaker 02

  If we are entering a period where they're going to keep doing that, it's probably going to happen at a faster and faster rate. And so you want to own something that actually will protect you.

• 38:19Anthony Pompliano?

  You've previously said that the risk reward for Bitcoin is second to none right now. We talked a lot about the reward side. What do you think the big risks to Bitcoin are? And one of the things that always becomes interesting to me is like, I think Bitcoiners are pretty critical of Bitcoin and try to think about, hey, what are the things that we could do to improve it? But like, what do you think are the two or three biggest risks right now?

• 38:40Speaker 02

  I think the risks really with Bitcoin are like self inducing. You know, people have said it before. It's more like a critical, critical bug or something like that. Anything that kind of threatens the that 21 million number. I think if that ever comes into doubt, then this experiment is going to get put into doubt. It all comes down to like 21 million. So if something happens, some kind of critical bug, it is software. So something like that could happen now. I think we're kind of past that. That risk is getting lower and lower over time. And so I'm not as worried about it. But again, software, something could happen. So that's always a risk that's there. Other risks, you know, are more like can just delay things like it's more like the

• 39:23Speaker 02

  on on and off ramps, kind of make it harder to access it. There can be like, you know, heavily being taxed, you know, you kind of see that some countries are taking different. Approaches to taxing it heavily, which could kind of hinder its adoption. But it doesn't stop Bitcoin. That's the thing. I mean, you saw Italy kind of increase its capital gains tax from 20 to 40 something the other week. And so these things can kind of help hinder Bitcoin's adoption. And so that could be a risk if you're an investment manager and you have a more like short term thinking. Hey, I want this to do well over the next couple of years. If they start to do things that hurt the adoption of Bitcoin by regulation, by enforcement,

• 40:08Speaker 02

  shutting down on ramps and off ramps, you know, that could kind of delay things a little bit. If you don't have a really long investment horizon. But that's not really a risk for somebody who's just like a young person who just wants to save in something that's not diluted by currency debasement, who has 30, 40 years. Because, you know, that just kind of stops it from happening in one jurisdiction. But Bitcoin's a global phenomenon. And I think it's just an idea whose time has come, given the amount of currency debasement happening.

• 40:40Anthony Pompliano?

  What's fascinating to me also is it's really forcing an entire generation to think long term. Yeah. When I see certain people come out and they're like, oh, what's it going to do next week? Next month, whatever. I'm like, oh, you must be new here. Yeah. Right. Most of the people I know have been around for a long time. They're now literally thinking decade plus timelines. And the people who I probably respect the most are thinking 20, 30, 40, 50 years out. And then of course, you know, Bitcoin's got like weird cultural things around it. People eat certain food. I always joked that like, there's a certain subset of Bitcoiners who want to like go outside naked and like sun their balls or whatever. Like, you know, there's always like different like cohorts, whatever. But I do see a lot of people who they started to think long term in their portfolio. And then they sort of think long term in their life.

• 41:23Anthony Pompliano?

  And it's this very like fascinating thing of maybe actually one of the greatest gifts that Bitcoin gave to the world is just like, think long term.

• 41:29Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 41:30Anthony Pompliano?

  And for young people who tend to be more, you know, excited about Bitcoin than older people, like they still have time on their side.

• 41:35Speaker 02

  Yeah. I've noticed it in my own life and I think about fiat currency, it makes sense when you look at it at the other side of things. So like if you have, if you live in a jurisdiction where the currency's inflating like 100%, I mean, how can you think long-term, right? You're just kind of worried about like the grocery store prices increasing the next week. You have to keep thinking really short-term, short-term, short-term. And all the greatest things that we built as a civilization has been like long-term investments, projects, you know, building businesses, like solving things, solving problems that take like these innovations that like, oh, I never thought this was gonna work, but I'm gonna invest some capital and just like see if it could work over the next five to 10

• 42:18Speaker 02

  years. You know, that's how we get like some of these like really big technological breakthroughs. And so like thinking long-term is I think really, really good for society as a whole. And I think that sound money does that to people. And so it's one of the reasons I'm so bullish on Bitcoin, because I think it's like sound money for the digital age. And it's gonna get people thinking more long-term about how we can solve these like really big problems in our society. And I've seen it myself. I know you've probably seen it yourself. And I'm excited to see that kind of like trickle out into like the corporate world, nation-state level over the next, I mean, I'm just kind of front row seat right here, just kind of watching Bitcoin spread. And it's a, that's one of the reasons I'm so excited about it.

• 43:02Anthony Pompliano?

  I do love this idea that like the critics eventually join our team, right?

• 43:07Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 43:08Anthony Pompliano?

  It's like, you know, like the Larry Finks of the world, like he's the CMO of Bitcoin now. Like he's doing a great job, like we love him.

• 43:14Speaker 02

  Pretty good.

• 43:15Anthony Pompliano?

  And there's this weird thing, like the messenger really matters. And so he's maybe saying the exact same thing that Bitcoin has been saying forever, but like it actually matters that Larry Finks saying it, you know? And so like the team expands over time.

• 43:28Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 43:28Anthony Pompliano?

  And very few people I know were into Bitcoin and now aren't. But there's a hell of a lot of people who weren't into it that now, you know, kind of joined team Bitcoin. And that seems to obviously be a great tailwind. Before I let you go, one thing I'm always interested is what information do you consume on a daily basis? Like you wake up in the morning, what are you looking at Bitcoin or investing wise, like data or information? What sites are you going to kind of consume content? What are those things that you've kind of filtered through? You say, hey, look, I think these are high signal and things that, you know, really kind of I learned from?

• 44:02Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 44:04Speaker 02

  I wake up and I kind of, I go to the mainstream media sites too. Like I go to like Financial Times, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal. And I just kind of see what everyone's talking about. And then if there's like a Bitcoin article or anything about digital assets, I'll like read it and see what's going on there. Then I go on X. I think like X is so powerful because it's just like a hive mind of really brilliant people. And I think like if you look at people's following list, I think that's one of the biggest alpha you can do. If you think somebody's really smart, just look, look at who they're following and then follow them too. I think I learned so much from just like the community there. And so I usually like bookmark things, like reports that come through, like whatever on X.

• 44:46Speaker 02

  And then, you know, there's all these different firms throughout the industry that have put out great reports and content and research. And I try to read like as much as I can. If there's a really good report, well done, took a lot of time to make, I'll read it. I'll read everything, no matter if it's just like Bitcoin specific or digital assets or about stable coins. I'll read anything that people put out. And so like, I'm really interested right now and like, so like BlackRock, for instance, like they put together those slides and they're going around, like you said, I mean, it's crazy. They're going around like a worldwide tour, teaching institutional investors about Bitcoin.

• 45:24Anthony Pompliano?

  With Bitcoin memes, right? Like the things that Bitcoin has been saying for a decade.

• 45:28Speaker 02

  I mean, I just, I try to read everything and I'm like going through their, you know, slide that some of them leaked on, you know, X. And I'm just like, this is crazy. Like, and I'm learning some things like how are they sending the messages? But it really is just what Bitcoin has been talking about. Another one is like Bernstein from Alliance Bernstein. They just put out like 160 page, what they call Black Book. This is one of the most respected research firms on Wall Street, all about Bitcoin and the institutional adoption era and why Bitcoin's going at 200K by the end of next year. This is Bernstein. I mean, so like I get really, I try to read. All different types of perspectives on it from different people, from Wall Street,

• 46:08Speaker 02

  mainstream media sources, industry-specific firms, as well as X and just like regular, you know, individuals, like blog posts, because that's how Bitcoin content really grew. Back in like 2017, 2018, it was like a collection of Medium posts, newsletters, podcasts. And not to say those people are brilliant too. So I tried to read everything. It was like one of the first things I did at Swang was grab all the Bitcoin content that was out there from YouTube, blog posts, articles, reports, and I archived them all. And then I just like made a different curated content, an entire educational platform

• 46:52Speaker 02

  of like the decentralized content of Bitcoin. And so you can learn so much from all those different mediums. And it's just like, really, how do you want to learn about it? And so for me, I'm trying to like, I try to read everything. I try to like digest everything. It's almost impossible now. But I learn from everything. So I guess I wake up, it's just constant reading.

• 47:15Anthony Pompliano?

  That's a great way to learn, right?

• 47:16Speaker 02

  Yeah, that's how I like to learn.

• 47:17Anthony Pompliano?

  And then I find that after I read a lot, then I go talk to people and they kind of help me filter like, oh, that was dumb. Okay, I'm not gonna forget that thing, right? Like I had Bernstein, come on, man, you know, the 165 pages or whatever, like 159 were great. Like those six pages, ah, I gotta forget that part.

• 47:33Speaker 02

  Totally. I like reading, I like going directly to sources too. There's a lot of articles that talk about, you know, lawsuits or something like that. I like to read like, like I'm the guy who's like reading like the 180, you know, page lawsuit from the SEC. Like I like going digging into those. And then even like looking into the footnotes, because that's where you see some of the real like gems is where you read the footnote to where they got the information. And then you dig into that and you get into these rabbit holes. So I think like going to find the original source material and then Giving your own opinion or like developing your own opinion before going on Twitter and just like finding a thread. I think that's like a generally a good idea to do. And so I recommend people go to the original source material. That's always good.

• 48:16Anthony Pompliano?

  Bitcoiners are very smart. Every once in a while, they get too excited.

• 48:21Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah. And there is like something goes super viral and like we were talking about one earlier. Like, is that true? Is that not true? Let's go. Let's go try to figure it out.

• 48:28Speaker 02

  Yeah, I've been guilty too. This is more like after eight, seven, eight years. Like I'm wearing like, I'm not gonna trust that guy. I gotta go to the original source material. And then, yeah, maybe he's right, maybe he's wrong.

• 48:37Anthony Pompliano?

  Amazing. Where, where can we set people to find you on the internet?

• 48:40Speaker 02

  Yeah, I'm on X. So at Sam Kallah, S A M C A L L A H. Share my thoughts there. I also do a newsletter called The News Block, where we just try to break everything down every week in under 10 minutes, like a block. Usually we curate a lot of things on there. So we talked about like where I get my content. I usually just make it easy for everybody. So it's all right there for them. So I do all the work for you. You can just read all the links to all the reports and stuff. So check it out. It's the news block at substack.com.

• 49:09Anthony Pompliano?

  Newsblock.substack.com.

• 49:11Speaker 02

  Yeah, the news block.

• 49:11Anthony Pompliano?

  Okay. And the news block.

• 49:13Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 49:14Anthony Pompliano?

  Make sure you tell them exactly. Cause if I mess it up, then everyone's gonna get mad at me. The news block.substack.com. And I see what you did there with 10 minutes and the block. That's clever.

• 49:22Speaker 02

  Yeah. Yeah, there you go.

• 49:24Anthony Pompliano?

  All right. Well, thank you so much for doing this. We'll do it again in the future.

• 49:26Speaker 02

  Yeah, thanks, man.

• 49:27Anthony Pompliano?

  What's up, guys? I hope you're enjoying this episode, but I got a quick message for you. I just released my very first book. It's called How to Live an Extraordinary Life. In this book, there are 65 life lessons that I've picked up over the years. These lessons will teach you about money, investing, relationships, work, health, happiness, and much more. In this book, I wrote letters to each one of my children, and I tried to share those life lessons with them. If you pick up this book, there's three things that I can promise you. The first is that it is very concise. The audio book is only three hours. You can listen to it on a long drive or on a rainy afternoon. The second thing is that you're gonna learn something. It's worth the price of admission just for the lessons themselves. And then the third thing is it will make you think more deeply about your life and how you try

• 50:12Anthony Pompliano?

  to live it. So go pick up. How to Live an Extraordinary Life Today. It's a quick read. It's very impactful. It's very concise. And it would mean the world to me for the support. Go check it out today on Amazon, Barnes & Noble, or wherever you buy your books. Hardcover, audiobook, it all works. Thank you so much for the support, and I'd love to hear what you think about the new book.