#1340 Darius Dale | Inflation Is Sticky & Bitcoin Will Skyrocket?!

Darius Dale is the Founder & CEO of 42Macro. In this conversation, we talk about the probability of different economic outcomes, why "no landing" might happen, what that means, inflation, optimism index, small business survey, and outlook on asset prices. ======================= Buy and sell cryptocurrency in a tax-advantaged crypto IRA with iTrustCapital. Enjoy 24/7 access, lowest fees in the industry, and tax benefits for your retirement. Open an account today at ⁠www.itrustcapital.com⁠ ======================= Get the freshest price feeds free for 12 months. Join Supra’s early integration program for zero-cost access to the fastest oracles and dVRF across 50+ blockchains: ⁠⁠https://supra.com/pomp⁠⁠. Earn $1,500 by referring Web3 projects to use Supra services. The projects get the fastest services for free, and you earn $1,500 for every referral. Learn more at the link above. ======================= Pomp writes a daily letter to over 265,000+ investors about business, technology, and finance. He breaks down complex topics into easy-to-understand language while sharing opinions on various aspects of each industry. You can subscribe at https://pomp.substack.com/ ======================= View 10k+ open startup jobs: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://dreamstartupjob.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Enroll in my Crypto Academy: https://www.thecryptoacademy.io/

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:02Anthony Pompliano?

  What's up everyone? This is Anthony Pompliano. Many of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, which is my effort to find the most interesting people in the world and sit with them for hours while I ask questions in an effort to learn. So it would mean the world to me if you would subscribe to the show on your favorite audio platform, watch episodes on YouTube, and tell your friends and family about the podcast. My goal is to help millions learn from the world's most interesting people. So let's get into today's episode. Today's episode is with Darius Dale, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro. In this conversation, we talk about why there might not be a hard landing or a soft landing, and maybe the actual outcome that we should expect is no landing at all. And then we get into things

• 0:44Anthony Pompliano?

  like the optimism index, the survey results, and what is going on in terms of people's psychology in the economy. I always enjoy talking to Darius, and he did not disappoint in this conversation. He brings up a number of different data points that I had not considered before, and also allocates a lot of time to speaking on what could be driving some of the data points that you see in the economy. Here is my conversation with Darius Dale.

• 1:08Speaker 01

  Anthony Pompliano runs Pomp Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Pomp Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Pomp or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only.

• 1:32Anthony Pompliano?

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• 2:13Anthony Pompliano?

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• 2:55Anthony Pompliano?

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• 3:39Anthony Pompliano?

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• 3:54Anthony Pompliano?

  Alright guys, bang, bang. We've got Darius here. Darius, soft landing, hard landing, that's the big debate. You're coming in hot with a no landing. What is a no landing? And why is this maybe a situation that we should be paying attention to?

• 4:06Speaker 02

  Oh, great question, man. And so thanks again for having me. It's always good to be back. So let's first, let's first start off to find those three economic scenarios. So I think it's important that we're all on the same page here. So soft landing, in our opinion, is a period of trend or below trend GDP growth that allows inflation to come back to a trend over time. A hard landing is a period of significantly below trend GDP growth that usually results in a contraction in the labor market that ultimately causes, you know, growing incomes to decline, et cetera, et cetera. That's a recession. And then a no landing scenario is a period of trend or above trend economic growth that allows inflation to decelerate, but unlikely to allow inflation to get back to, get back to his 2% target over time.

• 4:50Speaker 02

  And that's sort of our, at least over the spec to the next 12 month time horizon, as this first chart indicates, we believe that is the highest probability scenario over the next 12 months. If you look at our projections, so we run two separate models to predict inflation, specifically predict, I would say we have a third model that allows us to anticipate inflation, just using the qualitative inputs in the economy. But specifically with respect to forecasting inflation, the median of those two models is effectively saying, we're going to continue to see immaculate disinflation over the next couple of quarters. But by the time we get into Q4, we're very likely to bottom at a level with respect to inflation that is inconsistent with the Fed's 2% target. In our opinion, that's likely to cause some problems or asset markets.

• 5:30Anthony Pompliano?

  Now, you've got this second chart that says a no landing in the economy equals a no landing in headline CPI. And so is this something where we just like, kind of stay in the threes? We never get down to two and three becomes the new two? Like, how does that work?

• 5:45Speaker 02

  Yeah, so that's something we've been talking about. I think I've talked about our secular inflation model on this program over the last few years. And that's, that's, that's the key takeaway from that deep dive analysis that we did with respect to our secular inflation model. So we do think three is the new two. We ultimately expect the Fed to acquiesce to three being the new two. And they certainly, in our opinion, started that process as most recently as the March FOMC meeting. It's not going to be a linear, straight line process, but ultimately we think, you know, if you're looking back two, three years from now, the Fed will have, rather have accepted. 3% inflation versus 2% inflation and a recession in our opinion. So that's, uh, that's obviously structured bullish for asset markets, structurally bearish for bond markets. Uh, so, uh, getting into this chart, so one of the things we wanted to, uh, highlight, uh, in this discussion today,

• 6:29Speaker 02

  uh, ahead of, uh, tomorrow's CPI print, uh, and Thursday's PPI print, uh, is helping investors actually understand where we are, uh, with respect to inflation, where we are just in the economy in general. I think a lot of investors, uh, particularly they get on programs like this, spend so much time talking about where they think things are headed and not enough time helping investors understand where are things today so that we have all have a, uh, very, uh, deep understanding of the base rate is so that we are, our forecasts are, uh, much more accurate. So getting back in this chart, uh, we're just, uh, you know, these next few charts, we just want to highlight, uh, where we are with respect to the inflation trends across a variety of different metrics. Uh, the, uh, the chart here just shows, uh, the no landing and headline CPIs. And we're starting to see, uh, if you look at the three month annualized, we had a change of that, the, the, those blue bars in these charts. Uh, we popped up to 3.9%.

• 7:14Speaker 02

  We're kind of trending sideways now in terms of the red line, which is the year-over-year rate of change of headline CPI at around 3%. Now again, we expect that to start to decelerate again, but again, it's very unlikely that we decelerate through 2% in a way that allows the mean of the time series to be 2% on a full cycle basis. So that, that's an issue.

• 7:33Anthony Pompliano?

  Now, you also have charts here that show PCE and core, uh, as well and kind of a no landing. And so is this something where like basically the measurements and the economy in general kind of has like, we're at the bottom now, where like almost think of it as like, we went up, we went down. Are we bottoming now? And then like, we should expect a reinflation type event?

• 7:57Speaker 02

  Yeah, yeah. I mean, that now, so bottoming now, no, uh, we, we do believe the bottom is likely to be in, in some time in Q3 and then we'll start to be accelerated again from a level that is inconsistent with 2% inflation, uh, in Q4. Again, you have to go through 2% for the mean of the time series to remain 2%. Otherwise, if you, if you bottom it to and start to reaccelerate from two, uh, then you're talking about a mean of the time series that's going to be higher than two, probably close to three, which is what it's kind of tracking at right now. So, uh, just if you look at slides three, uh, where we Showed no landing in the economy because of landing in core CPI. We have core CPI accelerating to 4.1% through financialized. That number bottomed, you know, five, six months ago. If you look at the bottom panel in this

• 8:37Speaker 02

  in this chart in core CPI, we accelerated to 6.7% through financialized. We've been trending sideways for about a year now almost in terms of a supercore. That's core services x housing inflation at 4.3%. So that these are obviously problematic trends on some very key data sets. We're also seeing problematic trends on slide four, where we show the no landing in the economy resulting in a no landing in the core PC deflators, or in the PC deflators, rather. So headline PC popped up to 3.4% through financialized. That's the second consecutive month of acceleration. The media, the middle panel shows core PC deflator. That number popped up to 3.5% through financialized. That's the second consecutive month of deceleration. And then the supercore PC deflator popped up to 4.5% through financialized.

• 9:22Speaker 02

  That's the second consecutive month of acceleration. All three of these numbers, 3.4%, 3.5%, and 4.5% are significantly higher than the longer term trend, and it's significantly higher than a number that is consistent with 2% inflation. So we again, we suspect this is a transitory backup in inflation, reported inflation. However, we do suspect this is a preview of what we're going to be dealing with as investors, most likely, once we get into Q4 and into Q1 of next year.

• 9:51Anthony Pompliano?

  Now, when we start thinking about this kind of inflation, like where's it coming from, right? So it's one thing to say like, hey, here's what we expect to happen. But like, what is driving it so much? And there's a bunch of manipulation that can occur in terms of, you know, housing or energy, or kind of all these different things that people can take in or out. The joke is like, well, if you don't have food, house, or energy, then of course, everything's fine. Just the things you need to live. But like, when you guys think about kind of the why behind some of this analysis, like what is driving it?

• 10:17Speaker 02

  Yeah, it's a great question. So it's a variety of things. I mean, actually, as we show on slide five, where we show no landing in the economy equals a no landing in the underlying inflation. To me, I think this is one of the broadest, you know, kind of things that is being missed in the discussion around inflation because it's very natural for us to say, okay, where is it coming from? But the reality is that the most unacceptable answer from the perspective of policymakers and investors is everywhere. And that's exactly what we're seeing. So in this chart here, in the underlying inflation chart, we show the Cleveland Fed's median CPI and trim mean CPI statistics. So the median CPI is just the median change of all the different categories of inflation. I want to say there's about 400 different subcategories within the CPI report. And then

• 11:01Speaker 02

  the same statistics we show for the median PC deflator and the trim mean PC deflator. And trim mean just is lopping off the bottom and top eight percentiles of those data points. So it's essentially what, you know, irrespective of what the weights are, what's happening in the economy that's, you know, from a broad-based perspective. And we're seeing a lot of inflationary pressure there as well. So if you look at median CPI, we're at 5%. That's, you know, basically twice its pre-COVID trend. You look at trim mean CPI on a three-month annualized basis of 4.3%. That's more than twice its pre-COVID trend. If you look at the median PC deflator at 4.1% through my annualized, that's essentially twice its pre-COVID trend. And then lastly, the trim mean PC deflator, it says at 3.7% through my annualized. That's more than twice

• 11:44Speaker 02

  its pre-COVID trend. So we are just, again, this backup that we've seen in inflation over the last couple of months is extremely broad-based. And it's, in our opinion, it's a preview of what we're likely to experience as investors later this year in terms of inflation bottoming at a level that is inconsistent with 2%.

• 12:02Anthony Pompliano?

  Now, as we go and we look at kind of the chart here on six, the March New York Fed Inflation Expectations Survey was supportive of the immaculate disinflation theme.

• 12:13Anthony Pompliano?

  So does this mean people are maybe confused?

• 12:16Speaker 02

  No, no. So in my opinion, I think it's it's it's it's confirming exactly what we think is going to happen, which is, you know, we probably have one to two more quarters of trending deceleration in inflation, which is positive for asset markets because it ultimately means the Fed and Treasury are likely to continue implementing dovish forward guidance and dovish net financing policy. By the time we start to see evidence that inflation is not going to sustainably stick at 2% or bottom at a level that is inconsistent with 2%, which I don't think we're going to get data that can really truly confirm that, or at least according to our models, that is when we suspect we're going to have some problems in asset markets. So right now, we're looking at leading indicators, leading survey data like in this chart,

• 12:59Speaker 02

  University of Michigan's Consumer Cinnamon Index, their one-year CPI expectation, that same statistic with the conference board in the middle panel, and then we have the same statistic for the New York Fed survey. So what we're looking for here are leading survey data that can give us confidence in the durability of the immaculate disinflation theme. When you look at these data points, all three are essentially giving you confidence in terms of, A, two of the three are actually ticked down in the most recent month, but all three are actually getting close to their pre-COVID trends. Now, that that might be the bottom for a lot of these statistics, and that can be an issue. But again, on the lag, we would expect the PC deflators to chase those down back to those those levels. And if we bottom at those levels, then that's going to be a problem because you have to go again, you have to go through the level to actually create a mean of 2%.

• 13:44Anthony Pompliano?

  Now, the Small Business Optimism Survey seems to be showing a lot of the same type of thing?

• 13:50Speaker 02

  Actually, the opposite. So we got this data point this morning, unpacking the NFIB survey, which has been a decent leading indicator for some of the inflation trends as well, at least the inflation components there. We saw the prices component tick higher in the month of March that moved in the wrong direction. We saw the price plans next three months, data point move higher in March. That's in the wrong direction. We saw the compensation plans, compensation and compensation plan readings both tick up in March. So, you know, you're trying to you're trying to build a piece of puzzle together from an economic standpoint, you want to rely on as much data as possible. And particularly rely on as much, you know, data that's highly correlated with the stuff that really matters as possible. And these, these are the kinds of data points that, you know, you've got to kind of roll up your sleeve and get out of the, the, the reports to figure out.

• 14:35Speaker 02

  But once you do that data, that you do that analysis, it's pretty clear to see that, you know, not all of the leading survey data are continuing to confirm the macro disinflation theme as they had been for most of the past, you know, kind of several quarters. And so that's, that can be an issue.

• 14:49Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it. And so when we look at some of these survey and optimism data, like one of the things that I always cracks me up is, uh, I went on CNBC recently and I said, you know, hey, people have lost hope. And then somebody who will go unnamed, uh, posted a chart and was like, well, the consumer sentiment survey says that, uh, things are looking up. And I went out and I was like, I'm pretty sure that if I remember correctly, the methodology on this stuff is like ridiculous. And so I went and I looked at specifically the consumer sentiment survey, uh, they call 500 people on the phone and they're, and they asked them questions.

• 15:20Speaker 02

  That sounds funny, right? They call 500 people on the phone.

• 15:23Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah. Who, who are you calling? What questions are you asking? And like, oh, by the way, people lie. They'll tell you things look great and then they're literally buying meme coins lottery tickets, right? And so like, how do you kind of balance when you evaluate markets and kind of asset allocations and stuff like we have data points, right? And again, like sometimes they're just the best data points we have, even if they're flawed. At other times, maybe you don't put as much weight on it. And so like, how do you think about, you know, the methodologies of some of these and like, are there certain ones that when you wake up and you're like, all right, I want to analyze this, you put more weight on rather than others?

• 15:55Speaker 02

  Yeah. Oh, that's a phenomenal question, my friend. You are one of the world's best at that. Uh, so, uh, there's a couple of answers there. So, uh, for starters, uh, the most important thing you can do as an investor is not put too much stock in any one data point or any one model to drive your investment decision making. It's about building a robust process that has a bunch of different data points, a bunch of different models that are all, that create orthogonal signals. Look that up if you need to look that up. It's a very important word. If you're trying to talk institutional finance, you want models and data points that are, uh, coming from different, that have different methodologies that allow, that are, that give you the opportunity to respond to orthogonal signals in real time as an investor.

• 16:33Speaker 02

  This is why, you know, when we, when we come on here, we don't just say, hey, this one super secret data point that I know that no one else knows and you gotta pay me for this says this. That's not what investing is about. And reality is that anyone who's telling you that is a charlatan. Uh, the reality is we have to create, you know, we got to piece the puzzle together with just much, uh, robust data and robust data analysis as we possibly can. Which is why, you know, we do so much work for our clients at 42 Macro. And so for another example of this is on slide eight, uh, where we show the ISMPMI surveys, uh, they were mixed on the macro disinflation theme. So going back to, um, your comment on the consumer sentiment survey, uh, the, the second answer to your question, uh, specifically is that, uh, when you analyze data in rate of change format,

• 17:14Speaker 02

  the, the methodology becomes less relevant. Now, if the methodology changes over time, then you, you know, then you're gonna have some issues like, you know, for example, the CPI or not. But even then, you know, as long as it's not changing all of the time, then you, you, you're getting clean signal from the delta. You know, is it accelerating or is it decelerating? Is it above its trend, the most recent, the trailing trend or is it below its trailing trend? Those are, you know, hard quantitative statements that are, that, you know, that institutional investors are looking to make with data. You know, whether the data is good or bad, or you know, that's a, that's more of a subjective data, uh, discussion and you shouldn't have to focus too much time on that. So, uh, getting back into this chart, uh, the ISM services prices, uh, component ticked down to the lowest level we've seen in four years.

• 17:56Speaker 02

  Uh, it's now below its pre-COVID trend. That's positive at the margins, uh, in terms of, uh, in terms of, uh, you know, sending a leading, uh, signal that inflation is likely to continue trending lower over the short to medium term. Uh, we saw the ISM services, uh, the percentage of respondents reporting slower supplier delivery times. Uh, that number ticked down to four, uh, year low. It's actually one of the lowest levels we've ever seen, uh, in that time series. So you're thinking about the services side of the economy, which is, uh, is, uh, creating a lot more inflation, uh, for, for, for investors. Uh, you know, if you look at the core, core services CPI, it's running at six percent, which is 200, 200 basis points higher than core CPI itself right now. So clearly this is where a lot of the inflation is coming from, and this leading indicator is saying, uh, we are starting to see, uh, better outcomes there.

• 18:38Speaker 02

  Uh, but when you look at the bottom panel of that chart on slide eight, you know, the manufacturing is now starting to move. The wrong way. Now manufacturing is a much smaller segment of the economy. It's only about twenty percent or fifteen percent of GDP and twenty percent of total employment. So just to be aware of that, but we are now starting to move in the wrong direction. So again, kind of just wrapping this whole discussion on inflation up. You know, we are immaculate disinflation theme, which is one of the most supportive themes out there in terms of creating positive outcomes for asset markets for, you know, for crypto markets or Bitcoin for, you know, for, for a lot of different assets. That theme is on the ropes because we are starting to see evidence of sticky inflation. What we're arguing here today is that some of the leading indicators are saying that immaculate disinflation is likely to continue.

• 19:18Speaker 02

  Some of them are starting to say, hey, it might be, you know, might be cut time, you know, head for the exits on this theme. We're not, we're not so sure that it is time to head for the exits. But we certainly want to have that discussion because the data is telling us to have that discussion in real time and we want to put ourselves in a position to respond to these critical inflections faster than the average investor, which allows us to make money, you know, allows us to take money from them.

• 19:40Anthony Pompliano?

  Now, when we're looking at a lot of this data, it feels like the Fed and specifically Jerome Powell kind of confused as to what to say. And he knows his words carry a lot of weight. And so he's looking at all this data. Let's say that he, you know, he's reading forty two macro. He's like, oh shit, we're, we're kind of in a doozy right now. How do we get out of this situation? We started the year off seven rate cuts, I think was the estimation. We're down now to like two or three. I'm starting to hear talk of zero. I think even one of the Fed presidents said maybe zero. What do you, what do they do? If you're Jerome Powell today, like what do you do to get out of the situation?

• 20:18Speaker 02

  Uh, I mean, I don't know if they're ever going to get out of the situation, right? The Pandora's box that is forward guidance and, and, and constant communication from Federal Reserve officials, you just, you can't put that back in the box, right? You know, I'm sure if they went backwards in time, they probably would like to, but it is what it is. And, and, and by the way, this is Jay Powell's a Federal Reserve official that believes in the power of forward guidance. He believes that the power, the channel for guidance in terms of asset markets pricing in what they want, what the Fed wants them to price in is a powerful tool in the Fed's toolkit. Now that tool can be manipulated by market participants as we obviously saw. Where seven, eight rate cuts were priced in at the beginning of the year. Now we're talking, you know, something closer to closer to two at this current juncture.

• 21:00Speaker 02

  And that's the right, in my opinion, that's probably better than being, oh, you know, just aggressively surprised at some point in the mid-year, you know, as a function of a function of a lack of forward guidance, but that's neither here nor there. But from my perspective, in terms of what, you know, what, what the markets are pricing is, is quite appropriate in terms of pricing out rate cuts from 2024 and even pricing out rate cuts from 2025 and 2026, because the reality is one thing that has been persistent since we authored it back in the summer of 2022 is the resilient US economy thing. And the economy and a resilient economy does not require rate cuts. Now, this is the Federal Reserve that believes a neutral rate is significantly lower than it than the current policy rate today. So they want to get started, understanding that monetary policy works for long and variable

• 21:42Speaker 02

  X, they want to get started on trying to, I guess, normalize policy. They're not trying to ease policy, they're just trying to make policy, quote unquote, less tight. But in our estimation, policy is really not that tight. I mean, none of us knows where the neutral rate is, but we can obviously observe through the financial conditions, we can obviously observe through the evolution of economic data and both on the growth and inflation side, that policy must not be very tight. And so in our opinion, the markets are moving in the right direction in terms of pricing out rate cuts, pricing volatility into the fixed income markets, but sparing the risk asset markets like equities, credit and crypto, because this is a resilient economy that does not require monetary easing.

• 22:20Anthony Pompliano?

  Got it. And then my last question for you is asset prices relationship to interest rates and inflation to some degree, pretty much have done the exact opposite of what we expected it to do, like interest rates went up, stock markets at all time high, bitcoins at all time high, meme coins are going crazy, like, why is that happening?

• 22:43Speaker 02

  Great question, man. So in our opinion, this is exactly what you would expect to happen in a reflation market regime. We are currently in reflation. Reflation is long risk assets, short defensive assets, you know, the riskier, the riskier, the better generally. You want to be short things like treasury bonds, want to be short things like the dollar. In our opinion, if you look at the current constellation of volatility adjusted momentum signals across all the major asset classes in the world and even the major factors within those asset classes, it looks and smells and tastes like a reflation market regime. And so this sort of, this is the expectation that a bond yield going down, or sorry, bond yields going up, bond prices going down has to equal stock prices or crypto prices going down. In my opinion, is a flawed assumption that's inconsistent with market history. There's plenty of market history of reflation regimes

• 23:27Speaker 02

  and our clients are currently taking advantage of the current one.

• 23:30Anthony Pompliano?

  Where can we send people to find you on the internet or find out more about 42 Macro?

• 23:34Speaker 02

  I appreciate you, man. I always love having these discussions, brother. So come check us out, 42macro.com. As we say, you know, we do a lot of high-end institutional content, but we turn that content into actionable investment signals for retail and RIA investors as well, namely through our KISB FOT construction process, which is making a lot of folks a ton of money in recent months.

• 23:52Anthony Pompliano?

  You got it, my friend. We'll definitely do this again in the future.

• 23:55Speaker 02

  Always a pleasure, my friend. Thank you, Avi. Appreciate you, pal.