#1060 Dylan LeClair On The Continued Decline Of Consumer Sentiment

Dylan LeClair is the Senior Market Analyst at UTXO Management, a digital asset fund investing in the analog to digital transformation of money and the emergent financial system. In this conversation, we discuss how consumers are feeling, what the yield curve inversion means, Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500, and what options does the Fed have left to get the economy back on track. Dylan joins us every Tuesday on "The Best Business Show." To see the video with the corresponding charts that Dylan references throughout the interview, go to "The Best Business Show: LIVE" YouTube Channel ======================= Coinchange is an automated wealth management platform that earns daily compounded yield for you. Earn up to 10% APY on a risk-mitigated basis – your payout doesn’t depend on the volatility of the market and there are no lockups or minimums. Register now at coinchange.io/pomp and get a welcome bonus of 40 USDC when you fund your account. ======================= BCB Group is the leading payment services partner for the digital assets industry. BCB Group provides payment services in 30+ currencies, FX, cryptocurrency liquidity, digital asset custody and BLINC, which is BCB’s free, instant settlements network for the BCB client ecosystem. Find out more by visiting bcbgroup.com/pomp =======================

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:02Anthony Pompliano?

  What's up everyone, this is Anthony Pompliano. Most of you know me as Pomp. You're listening to the Pomp Podcast, simply the best podcast out there. Now let's kick this thing off. This episode is brought to you by CoinChange. CoinChange is an automated wealth management platform that earns daily compounded yield for you. They've got sophisticated algorithms that automatically analyze and allocate liquidity to more than 25 DeFi protocols where you can earn very high rates of return on a risk mitigated basis when you hold your crypto. Earn while you sleep, exercise, or listen to this podcast. Your payout doesn't depend on the volatility of the market and there are no lockups or minimums. They don't lend, trade, or rehypothecate your assets. This means that by becoming a CoinChange client,

• 0:43Anthony Pompliano?

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• 1:26Anthony Pompliano?

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• 2:11Anthony Pompliano?

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• 2:31Speaker 01

  Anthony Pompliano runs POMP Investments. All views of him and the guests on his podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of POMP Investments. You should not treat any opinion expressed by POMP or his guests as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only.

• 2:55Anthony Pompliano?

  Dylan Leclerc, how are you, my friend?

• 2:57Speaker 02

  Hey, BCB. How we doing, man?

• 2:58Anthony Pompliano?

  I'm doing fantastic. We got a lot to talk about. Let's start with the White House. The White House is gaslighting us. They said a recession is not two negative GDP quarters. What's going on?

• 3:08Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, they seem to be redefining a lot of definitions lately. I think, yeah, pure gaslighting, maybe the technical definition, but you ask anybody on the street, ask anybody, they they understand that things aren't as good as they were last year. And by all means, we're, you know, if not technically, we're definitely, you know, starting to head into recession here.

• 3:28Anthony Pompliano?

  I also saw President Biden tweeted out saying that, given the downward price pressure on gasoline, the average family saving $35 if they own one car and $70 if they own two. And I died laughing because the first comment was Ramp Capital saying, how much do they save if they have three cars?

• 3:49Anthony Pompliano?

  Right? Like, it feels like that's what we're dealing with. We're literally dealing with like elementary math and economics right now because they just either don't want to tell us the truth, or maybe they don't understand. I don't know.

• 3:59Speaker 02

  Yeah, I think it's more propaganda than anything. I think that's politics. And like, you know, by the way, I'm not like a left or right kind of guy. I think it's just how politics works in general.

• 4:08Anthony Pompliano?

  My general take on it is exactly that, which is like something that used to just be math is now being kind of co-opted by the political administration. And it's on both sides of the aisle, right? We just had another president who was doing very similar things. And they just continue to try to twist the data to tell stories about the stock market, the economy, whatever. It's pretty incredible to watch. You have a US consumer sentiment and EU consumer sentiment charts stacked on top of each other. They don't look good. What's going on?

• 4:40Speaker 02

  No, it's truly remarkable, just kind of the situation we find ourselves in as a global economy. You know, we've been talking about it, you've been talking about it on your show for the last year, but truly, it's kind of like the perfect storm of just craziness that's leading us here, right? So we have this kind of huge global asset bubble, everything bubble, that, you know, seems to kind of be in the process of popping. That's been happening for the last eight months or so, you know, post-COVID, all that stimulus. On top of this, you have the structural inflation problem, which they were trying to, like if we go back a little bit, they were trying for the longest time, for really almost 20 years, to spur inflation.

• 5:23Speaker 02

  They said inflation's too low, right? CPI was hovering around 2% and they really, they wanted to kickstart that inflation a little bit. They were doing quantitative easing, they couldn't do anything to get any inflation. I mean, hell, the Eurozone had negative interest rates until just last week for about a decade. And so now, right, post-COVID, supply chains get shattered, they throw a bunch of funny money stimulus at everything, and now we get inflation. And that's a good thing for these, actually, they were actually rooting for this inflation. Why? Because the debt loads were so large that they needed a way to kind of erode the real value of the debt. It was actually a plan. If you read Fed papers, if you read IMF papers, they talked about global debt to GDP, these debt numbers that were unsustainable, and they said, how do we lower them?

• 6:08Speaker 02

  Well, we can't default. Austerity is not politically feasible. Well, we can run inflation higher than rates and higher than bond yields for a while, and we can erode that debt. So that was the plan, and they actually executed it. They did it too good. So inflation's too hot. And now, due to the kind of the social pushback, the political pushback, they're trying to reel it in, and the Fed, who's way behind the curve, is saying, alright, I guess we gotta jack up interest rates. So you have consumers that are facing super high inflation, corporate margins are getting killed, and now they're, on top of all this, we have a huge debt problem still, and they're jacking up the cost of capital. So obviously not a good sign. I didn't even mention the Russia-Ukraine conflict and all the second and third order effects there. But what a mess. And I think, you know, we're

• 6:53Speaker 02

  just kind of still crazy enough in the early stages of this kind of geopolitical, global, you know, cluster F.

• 7:02Anthony Pompliano?

  When you think about the Federal Reserve, they were obviously still buying assets and they had interest rates at 0% going into the end of the year. Inflation was over 7%, super scary situation. In hindsight, they probably shouldn't have been doing that. Now, we have Q1 GDP data negative, Q2 likely to be negative as well, and they're hiking rates essentially into a recession. Are they just repeating the same mistake but on the other end of the spectrum?

• 7:26Speaker 02

  Yeah, I think the Fed is behind the curve. I mean, that's that's kind of an obvious statement at this point. They, in hindsight, shouldn't have been jacking up, you know, mortgage-backed securities and Treasury bonds into 2021 at a clip of, you know, $120 billion a month into a into a hot economy. And they could have honestly raised that, you know, those front-end rates earlier. Well, obviously, that's in the past, can't do anything about it now. So they're very behind the curve, and they're actually hiking into a recessionary period. And I think they've kind of telegraphed that they're doing this because they're explicitly trying to crush demand. They can't really do anything on the supply side. And honestly, the kind of the paradox here is that the tightening of monetary policy actually, probably over the medium to long term, hurts the the supply-side dynamics, right? We need more

• 8:11Speaker 02

  supply of energy, we need more supply of commodities, and hiking and tightening monetary policy actually kind of constrains that effort a little bit. So even if we get kind of a recession, we crush demand a little bit, and by we, I mean the Fed and global central banks, the kind of the structural issues here haven't been fixed. And while we do see kind of year-over-year inflation maybe come down following these measures, we still have a pretty big problem. And, you know, if we look big picture here, stuff like peak globalization is a pretty big possibility. And so if that is the reality here, then inflation is absolutely not going to just, you know, return to ho-hum 2% for the next decade. There's there's some bigger issues under the surface.

• 8:55Anthony Pompliano?

  Let's talk about the energy markets. You've got the German one-year forward electricity. I mean, this looks parabolic. This is just up into the right and it's not going to slow down. What's going on here?

• 9:07Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, so by no means am I, you know, a global energy expert, but what I do know is that if you look at kind of the makeup of the EU, Germany is kind of the EU's manufacturing powerhouse. It's economic powerhouse of the European Union. And for the longest time, if you looked at like, say, European debt, Germany's bonds were trading with a negative nominal, not negative real yield. Because we always talk about, you know, negative real yields, right? Inflation over the bond yields, you're losing your value as a creditor. Well, no, Germany's bonds for the longest time were negative in nominal terms. So you were, investors in the EU were actually paying Germany money to loan Germany money. It was quite crazy. And this was because Germany, of all the EU countries,

• 9:51Speaker 02

  was just, had by far the best economy and the lowest default risk. And so now, due to the kind of the Russia conflict and, you know, the kind of the chess that Putin is playing,

• 10:03Speaker 02

  you know, Germany's electricity prices are absolutely soaring. So, and this is the summer, right? Where I think it's, you know, potentially a better outcome if the EU kind of wises up and Putin turns on the gas before winter when things can really get tragic. But if you're looking at, say, Germany's manufacturing, kind of capability with these energy prices, it's just not feasible. And so the EU, and if you look at, say, the euro, right, it's getting crushed and that's for good reason. Because Germany and Europe more broadly is almost kind of facing this emerging market dynamic of being short energy while the central bank is still, you know, burring at almost full capacity. You see stuff like the anti-fragmentation policy that they're putting in place to cap credit spread between nations.

• 10:48Speaker 02

  There are some really big structural problems in the European Union. And so when you see kind of currencies like the euro, which is the second or third biggest currency in the world, trading like an emerging market, it's, you know, there's some pretty big problems here.

• 11:01Anthony Pompliano?

  When you start to come back to the US and you look at the 10-year, 2-year yield curve, we're negative. We were last negative back in 2007, 2008, and then obviously, kind of in the late 80s, early 90s, as well as the 2000 tech bubble bursting. What is this telling you? Like, how much should we be worried about this, given just how obvious it is that, you know, this is happening?

• 11:28Speaker 02

  Yeah, so, I mean, really, the bond market isn't buying, isn't really buying the long-term inflationary outlook. You're seeing front end of the curve, the 2-year, it's spiking up because inflation pressures continue to intensify. But the long end of the curve, the 10-year, 30-year, they're actually starting to fall materially against the front end of the curve because of the long-term, basically, the long-term reality of way too much debt and the demographic outlook, which are both kind of deflationary factors. When you see a huge inflationary impulse like we're seeing today, paradoxically, over the medium to long-term, that's actually kind of, it leads to deflationary outcomes. And so I think that's what the Fed's tightening policy is actually doing.

• 12:11Speaker 02

  It's setting up for somewhat of a spectacular deflationary bust, and the bond market is kind of smelling it out. So while you see, earlier in the year, in 2022, the Treasury bond market had the worst start of its year in recorded history, right, as duration got killed because yields went up. So long-dated bonds, long-dated debt, even though you kind of can secure in that nominal yield over the course of the debt, mark-to-market-wise, the bonds got killed in value. And so now we're starting to see the long end of the curve relative to the short end. You know, bond market is supposedly the smart money, and they're not buying this long-term inflationary outlook. And you're seeing a lot of kind of commodities start to sniff that out as well.

• 12:53Anthony Pompliano?

  When you then take a comparison like the CPI year over year versus the Fed funds rate, again, pretty concerning stuff here. What is this telling us?

• 13:03Speaker 02

  Yeah, so we kind of talked about the structural issues and the debt to GDP a little bit earlier, right? So when we look at the kind of the Fed's messaging, the messaging from the Treasury, and just, and just look at kind of the, the global debt bubble that we knew we had coming into this, and, and post-COVID, the reality that central banks were facing. The reason that they wanted inflation over yields in the first place was because debt to GDP was so elevated. So if we just skip over one slide, slide number five, real quick, there's, there's a pretty amazing stat, and I might, I might get some of the details wrong, but of nations that have 130% debt to GDP over the last, I believe, 80 years, there's, there's been

• 13:42Speaker 02

  52 of them, only Japan, which is now experiencing a mass currency devaluation, hasn't defaulted on its debt, either explicitly defaulting, or input, kind of implicitly defaulting through a huge spurt of inflation, right? So the US debt to GDP, actually in Q4 of 2020, hit 136% through high inflation and low interest rates. We actually got that, that debt to GDP number, public debt to GDP, to 124%. All it took was just, you know, 8% CPI over the course of the year. But that, that was a playbook, and they actually executed it well. They got the real burden, the real value of that debt lower. But now, because

• 14:26Speaker 02

  of that kind of political pushback, they, they have to reverse course. And so I think ultimately, it's, it's, it's not going to last. It's just mathematically, not, not a reality that can persist for long, given that as the economy slows, as asset values crash, you're going to see tax receipts absolutely plummet, and the federal government and the Treasury isn't going to be able to fund itself. Interest expense on this debt is going to be far too high with yields at 3% rather than, say, 1% or 1.5%. So we still have this debt spiral dynamic that a lot of people like Greg Foss talk about. It's just over the short to intermediate term. Kind of unwinding, right? But ultimately, there is that reality that that the treasury,

• 15:08Speaker 02

  that the US government has to fund itself. And so I think that's that's kind of the long term thesis of further debt monetization, money printer go burr, and the Fed kind of backstopping this entire credit system comes back into play. That long term kind of dynamic is is absolutely unchanged, despite all the craziness in the short term.

• 15:27Anthony Pompliano?

  As we continue to watch this play out, obviously, there's many sophisticated investors who just say, the macro trade is too big, the Fed's in control, I don't want to fight the Fed, let me dump assets. And what that does is it seems to drive correlations of assets closer and closer to one. We've got a chart here of the S and P 500 futures and the Bitcoin USD. It just literally is moving in lockstep, it appears. How do you kind of read, is this a good thing for Bitcoin? Is this something that needs to change over time? But what's kind of your read on this?

• 15:58Speaker 02

  Yeah, so I've kind of always thought, at least for the last couple of years, that there's there's two mainly two kind of cohorts of Bitcoin investors. There's there's the, you know, the plebs, the stat, the sat stackers, the hobblers, that are treating it as a new monetary asset in its in its early nascent kind of monetization phase. And so they're willing to withstand massive volatility. They understand their time horizon is is years, maybe even decades. And the volatility is something that, you know, they, over the long term, actually benefit from because because of the, you know, eventual upside upside performance, right? On the other hand, there are kind of the Wall Street shops, hedge funds, etc., that are treating it like just any other risk asset, right? So it's actually performing like that. And actually, it's serving

• 16:43Speaker 02

  as like kind of equity market beta. So the S and P is up 2%, Bitcoin's up 5%. The markets are down 2%, Bitcoin's down 5%, 10%, whatever it is, right? It's much more volatile. And so I think a lot of the leverage that has led to this downside performance has been purged, right? A lot of the kind of fraud has been kind of unraveled, which is a long term net benefit and actually very healthy. But there still is the kind of the dynamic that, you know, that the Wall Street firms are treating it like a risk asset. So it's going to, you know, perform like With the short to intermediate term and that's fine, right? Uh, the kind of the financialization of Bitcoin, I think as it, as it's kind of grown global uh and global liquidity and relevance is something that was always going to happen, right?

• 17:25Speaker 02

  People would love for, for uh Bitcoin to have been treated and, and talked about in macro circles in 2018, 2019 at 3,000, right? So now at 20,000 in the depths of this bear market, uh you still have bond market traders, you still have uh legacy market participants talking about, you know, what's Bitcoin, what's crypto doing? And I think that's, you know, a natural kind of maturation step.

• 17:45Anthony Pompliano?

  As we see the VIX coming down, obviously Bitcoin's price coming down as well. Are these two things uh just correlated? Are they interrelated in the ways that maybe people don't understand? Like, why are stacking these two on top of each other so important?

• 17:59Speaker 02

  Yeah, so it's kind of uh similar, uh similar to the chart I just showed, right? So the VIX is, is S and P 500 volatility index. So it's showing implied volatility of, of, and it's kind of derived from, from option, option traders and, and how much volatility they're pricing into the, the market one month forward. And so we see when kind of the VIX, VIX falls, Bitcoin, whether it catches a bid or just finds, uh, you know, finds some support or consolidates uh over the last year um before the kind of the next volatile rip upwards in the VIX. Um, and then Bitcoin falls, right? So I think Bitcoin, if, if the volatility, if, if VIX, uh, if we just see more illiquidity and, and volatility in legacy markets broadly,

• 18:41Speaker 02

  uh, it's going to be very hard for Bitcoin to kind of sustain its, its current level. Uh, and that's what I'm kind of looking for in a potential leg down scenario is, is more downside and, and more volatile kind of pricing in, in equity markets uh for the next leg lower. Um, so, you know, if, if 17.5 is, is the ultimate bottom, great. Uh, but I, I suspect if we see any kind of significant uh volatile correlation to one move uh across equity markets, across bond markets, especially with all the kind of uh the global macroeconomic uncertainty when we're talking about Europe, when we're talking about Japan, when we're talking about potentially emerging markets feeling distressed because of a really strong dollar. All of this stuff is interconnected and, and the history of financial markets shows us that none of it kind of exists in.

• 19:23Speaker 02

  In a vacuum and counterparty risk, especially during these recessionary periods can can lead to quickly lead to financial crises. So in that in that environment, I would suspect Bitcoin to sell off materially as well. And that's fine, right? The same thing happened in March of 2020. And it's just kind of natural for for a global asset that trades in every jurisdiction 24/7 to kind of in a rush to dollars for it to sell off. It just makes sense.

• 19:48Anthony Pompliano?

  So when I start to think about Bitcoin's price, obviously, the illiquidity of the market is something that in the bull markets is very obvious. If all of a sudden Bitcoin goes and it's 80% hasn't moved in 90 days or whatever, it becomes obvious that if there are catalysts, there can be substantial moves to the upside. In the down phase of a bear market, there's still an analysis of that illiquidity in the market. But how do you think of kind of the relationship of like, what's the lowest price Bitcoin could go? Given some portion of people who just are unwilling to sell Bitcoin, right? So let's, I don't know if that number is 50, 60%, 40%, whatever that number ends up being. Like, how do you just think about the relationship? Less about like, what is the price?

• 20:34Anthony Pompliano?

  And more of just like, is there some price that Bitcoin literally can't go below because there are just not enough sellers that will come to the table because they believe Bitcoin is, you know, a 10, 20, 30 year asset to hold?

• 20:47Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, the reason that Bitcoin always recovers despite, you know, going down 90%, 80% these these hyper volatile moves to the downside is because eventually the sellers run out of coins. And we don't know when that when that kind of where that price level is. But, you know, for instance, if Bitcoin is down 80%, those stackers of last resort have 5x the relative buying power in BTC terms with with $1, right? So eventually, when you kind of, when you see a bottom formed, it's because every forced and willing seller has already sold their coins. And now there's there's kind of an imbalance, right? Price set the margin for every asset. It's just with an absolutely scarce asset where you can actually see, you know, each and every single individual coin or, you know,

• 21:32Speaker 02

  piece of that property. Uh, moving in real time with on-chain analytics, uh, we can kind of quantify it a little bit better. And so that, that elasticity, uh, you know, this, of this absolutely scarce asset, like you said, works to the upside and to the downside. And so, you know, that's why, that's why bear markets are often, are often very brutal with, with many fake outs, uh, and many kind of bull market, uh, rallies. And that's why during true bull markets, the parabola is just, is just kind of mind bending because, uh, there's just a fundamental supply, uh, demand imbalance with, with, you know, the marginal buyer and marginal seller.

• 22:05Anthony Pompliano?

  And as we look at the Lightning Network, let's use that as an example, there's been a bunch of debate around, uh, how popular it is. On one hand, if you go and you look at the charts, whether it's, uh, Lightning Network capacity, uh, number of nodes, open channels, like all this stuff is up into the right, sometimes hundreds of percent year over year. Uh, and it looks like on a percentage basis, it's growing incredibly quickly. At the same time, if you look at the amount of Bitcoin that's locked up, you know, in, in many days, it's under a hundred million dollars worth of Bitcoin actually locked in the, in the network. How do you evaluate the health or, uh, kind of, um, future potential value of the Lightning Network? Are there specific metrics that you look at that you find really important? And then how much of it is just like aggregate number versus like percentage growth numbers that you look at?

• 22:49Speaker 02

  Yeah. So I mean, I think like the Lightning Network is, is very interesting and, and often if you compare it to something like, uh, a DeFi protocols, TVL, or I saw yesterday someone was comparing it to, uh, the, the wrapped Bitcoin on Ethereum. It's just fundamentally different, right? With something like WBTC on ETH, wrapped Bitcoin on Ethereum, there's like 200, 300,000 Bitcoin that are wrapped, uh, on ETH, right? There's a custodian that's BitGo, they issue, uh, WBTC token, which is, uh, an ERC20 token that can trade on a, you know, the Ethereum blockchain, some similar to like a stablecoin. And you can use that as collateral, you can get a small yield on that, you can trade it on a DEX, you can do all these things. The Lightning Network is, is rather simple, right?

• 23:30Speaker 02

  You have peer-to-peer channels where you can, where you can route payments, uh, and it's just, you know, fast, cheap, easy payments. There's not much speculative, uh, use case for that. I mean, there are some kind of, uh, trading, uh, platforms. But it's they're really not used all that much. It's just it's just a peer-to-peer payment network, right? So this is something where adoption is adoption is growing very, very fast, but it still is, but pretty miniscule, right? And oftentimes centralized centralized payment solutions are much easier if you don't need a decentralized network, right? So for the users that do need a decentralized network or want to opt into it, the Lightning Network is has a ton of potential and it's growing really, really fast and is exciting.

• 24:13Speaker 02

  But for the most part, I kind of view Bitcoin as still more of kind of a monetizing store value asset. Right? It is hyper volatile, but that medium of exchange use case for Bitcoin, but crypto more broadly, it's really not all that. It's really not there yet. I mean, Venmo works fine, right? Even Cash works fine. Cash App works fine. And I don't really want to pay with something, maybe not personally, but the average user maybe doesn't want to pay and have to track their capital gains taxes, right? So for anyone in a Western country where Bitcoin is taxed like an asset, it's, you know, paying with crypto, paying with Bitcoin, maybe is not all that all that useful right now. Where I think it's really exciting is over the long term,

• 24:56Speaker 02

  as Bitcoin matures from more of a speculative store of value asset that's kind of in its early nascent stages, to more of a global globally liquid money that is used that is used for peer-to-peer payments, that is used potentially as a unit of account, right? These are the these are the long-term visions of the Bitcoin asset and the Bitcoin network. That's where I think something like a Lightning Network that'll that'll last for fast, cheap, quick, easy payments, where all the tech is kind of abstracted behind a wall, you know, a nice UX and UI. I think that's really, really exciting. And obviously, a lot of work has to be has to be done to get there. But I think, you know, kind of having a long-term vision with these technology networks is ultimately what pays off if you kind of look back through history.

• 25:39Anthony Pompliano?

  And as you start to evaluate the market today, what are the two or three things that you're paying attention to moving forward? Are you looking at Fed interest rate decisions? Are you looking at some sort of reversal in their language? Are you looking at the energy markets? Are you looking at gas prices, recession indicators? What are the things outside of Bitcoin that you think have an impact that you're just paying attention to?

• 26:02Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, as kind of simplistic as it is as a framework, I think ultimately that the Fed's communication and the Fed's just simply, yeah, the communication with the market, right? They've been kind of, if you've been listening, they've been kind of saying since really late 2021, early 2022, the opposite of what they've been saying for the longest time. Instead of buy the dip and, and you know, we're going to, we're going to support and accommodate asset markets. While that may not be the exact language, they're saying, hey, we need to reel in inflation. We need to tighten, we need to tighten the ship. And so I think that's really the signaling of Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve is something to, you know, to pay attention to. And I would suspect that they continue

• 26:45Speaker 02

  to kind of tighten the ship until something fundamentally breaks or the US economy, the global economy weakens a lot further. So whether that's something in the treasury market or something in, you know, equity markets, I really think, you know, there probably needs to be more pain. And something I'm also looking at is the labor market. I suspect that and real estate is probably the next kind of dominoes to turn over. And so I think for a Bitcoin investor, for any investor, you know, long term, this is, this is going to present great opportunities over the next six to 12 months. But don't, don't be, you know, in too much of a rush to snipe the bottom or to go all in or to leverage long, right? These things can take time. There can be kind of a lot of fake outs and

• 27:30Speaker 02

  consolidation before, you know, the next, the next bull market. We've had a really unique, you know, conditions for the last 20 years. And, and, you know, it may not be replicated with, you know, a V recovery up only again.

• 27:42Anthony Pompliano?

  And when you look at some of the price recovery that we see, so obviously if Bitcoin goes down to 17,500, it comes back to 20,000, it goes to 19,000, it goes to 22,000, $23,000, people get excited. How do you look at, you know, kind of dead cat bounces, head fakes, whatever language people want to use, but kind of the short-term optimistic type movements versus the more macro trend of like, look, we've been going down for eight months and, you know, you think that that's not going to change in the short term?

• 28:11Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, just kind of in Bitcoin specific, right? It's much more volatile than equity markets. And so it's still kind of somewhat tracking those markets as well. This week seemed to be big in terms of earnings, in terms of FOMC, right? Walmart, I think, had a pretty terrible earnings report, you know, traditionally kind of a recession-proof stock, down big after hours. It's kind of a crazy world where, you know, the price of this global monetary asset is affected by retailers and tech giants and something that, you know, fundamentally doesn't have too much kind of in common with. It's just, it's kind of, everything is dependent on this global liquidity tide, right? So I think ultimately, over the long term, that's

• 28:52Speaker 02

  a benefit of Bitcoin because they will mathematically certain have to kind of turn on the spigots again. That's the reality of this debt dynamic. But what to keep in mind is that the pain and the volatility, especially to the downside, can last a lot longer, you know, than some people think. So stay solvent, have some cash, you know, don't be leveraged longing or, you know, trading yourself to death here. It's fine to stay patient and, you know, I think over the long term, you'll look back and say, hey, like, this was, this was a really great 12 months of, or maybe even 18 months of buying opportunity. But don't be too eager to, you know, kind of go all in with your chips. Things like this can take some time.

• 29:34Anthony Pompliano?

  Yeah, that makes complete sense. Where can we send people to find you on the internet or subscribe to the newsletter?

• 29:41Speaker 02

  Yeah, you can find me on Twitter @dillonleclaire underscore. Kind of, we're putting out next week, Sam Ruhl and I for Bitcoin Magazine Pro, we're putting out kind of a monthly report, kind of documenting all this macroeconomic craziness and tying it into Bitcoin. And so if you're interested in any of that stuff, give us a sub. And, you know, if not, you can just find me on Twitter and I'll be posting some of that stuff anyway. So, yeah, I appreciate you having me on, Poppin'. It was good to catch up for the first time in a little bit.

• 30:10Anthony Pompliano?

  You're doing a fantastic job. I'm excited to read it when you guys put it out. So, thanks so much for joining us and we'll talk again next week.

• 30:18Speaker 02

  Cheers, brother.

• 30:18Anthony Pompliano?

  All right, later.