Fed Hikes Rates, Oil Affordability Crisis & Paramount Threatens California Exit | PBD #858

Patrick Bet-David and the Home Team react to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates for the first time since 2023 as inflation and fuel prices surge. They also break down Saudi Arabia’s escalating fight with the Houthis, the growing global oil crisis, Paramount threatening to leave California, the battle over AI, Lindsay Clancy’s holdout juror, and much more. ------ 👞 Get the NEW Billionaire Suede Loafer: https://bit.ly/4ym5oRA . 👕 SHOP THE ICON COLLECTION: https://bit.ly/3TuUU3x . Ⓜ️ CONNECT ON MINNECT: https://bit.ly/4kSVkso . Ⓜ️ PBD PODCAST CIRCLES: https://bit.ly/4mAWQAP . 👔 BET-DAVID CONSULTING: https://bit.ly/4lzQph2 . 🥃 BOARDROOM CIGAR LOUNGE: https://bit.ly/4pzLEXj . 🇰 KALSHI: http://kalshi.com/pbd . SUBSCRIBE TO: @VALUETAINMENT @ValuetainmentComedy ABOUT US: Patrick Bet-David is the founder and CEO of Valuetainment Media. He is the author of the #1 Wall Street Journal Bestseller "Your Next Five Moves" (Simon & Schuster) and a father of 2 boys and 2 girls. He currently resides in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida. He currently resides in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:14Patrick Bet-David?

  My handshake is better than anything I ever signed, right here. You are a one of one?

• 0:19Speaker 01

  My son's right there.

• 0:20Patrick Bet-David?

  I don't think I've ever said this before.

• 0:27Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, just so you guys know, I got some bad news. I don't know if you guys heard this or not. This just happened. A lot of people are not happy about this. Forbes 400 list billionaires. Do you know 590 billionaires were not rich enough to make it on the Forbes 400 list? Catastrophic. Times are hard, you know, and then number came out saying Americans income hits record high. Then people are like, wait a minute, whose income is hitting record high? Top is hitting record high, but at the same time, lower earners lose ground. So the whole concept of rich getting richer, poor getting poor affordability. We got some of that that we'll be talking about today. Umberto came in today pissed off. He parked his car 500 yards away and he walked to because he's trying to save money on gas. So he parked,

• 1:10Patrick Bet-David?

  no longer, he walks, he was sweating, it was wet, you know, he knows what I'm talking about. He had his mustache all uncrewed. His mustache. Look, as much as we're laughing, having fun with this, people are having a challenging time with the gas prices. We're seeing it with diesel and I'm sure you saw the story on JP Morgan Chase. They're asking the JP Morgan Chase analysts and they said, can you model what's going to happen with oil prices? I don't have a clue what the hell is going on. When have you heard an analyst saying, I can't predict what's going to be happening with the marketplace? And because of that, we decided to bring two guys in Snyder, Jeff, a very smart guy. He comes here, he gives us a workout here. Him and Tom fight it out on who's more smart. Gets both of them going a little bit, which is good competition. We like that. I don't think we fight.

• 1:55Patrick Bet-David?

  No, you fight a lot. You guys fight hardcore. That's off air though. That's off air. And then we also have the good looking handsome. Could have gone a different direction in his life. Could have gone on Hollywood, maybe done Top Gun 3. I don't know. He could have done a completely different direction, but we got the great Will Witt here with us as well. So with that being said, let's get right into it. I'm glad we put him in the middle of these two so they're not fighting over brains.

• 2:16Speaker 02

  You don't need the brains.

• 2:17Patrick Bet-David?

  Let the good looking guys. Well, look, when we need sports commentary, we're going to go to Will. We have things up. Will knows a lot about sports. He just made it very clear on how much sports he watched growing up and maybe he'll share that story with you. Exactly. So, okay, Paramount leaving California. Where they going? Nobody knows. There's some speculation, but what everybody knows is they're leaving California. Now, why would a company leave California? It's not like they're doing anything bad. Alicia, you can bring it, no problem, but they're leaving California. Number two, Messi wants to impeach Hexet. Johnson wants to shut down the, you know, the government. Messi saying, why are we doing this if we're about to lose midterms? We got only a few months left to fix this. Others are saying, why are you

• 3:02Patrick Bet-David?

  going after Hexet? This is not the way of doing it. Maybe we'll have that conversation here together. Then you have the Fed rate increase that happened. Kevin Walsh, Tom was panicking for a few weeks, worried about if that was going to happen or not. It did. Rates went up a quarter of a basis point. He came out and some say he's trying to be his own man. Some say he made the right decision. Some are upset at it. The bonds folks like, what's his name? Jeffrey Gunlak? He thinks it needs to go up even another point. Trump think it needs to go down to 1%. We'll have that conversation, how it impacts you as the individual that's going through this. And then we talked about that in a minute. Houthis drone strike over Mecca and Saudis like, wait, what are you doing? That wasn't us. We would never do such a thing. It was you. No, we would never do such a thing like

• 3:47Patrick Bet-David?

  that. So now Saudi is coming up to ask Trump for help. Trump is saying, we're not going to be involved. We'll get into that story as well. Rogan says if AI was running the world, there would be no wars. He says he thinks running AI, running the government would stop all wars on the planet. You guys don't even know that's one of the stories? I kind of want to know what you think about it. Would it? Would it be better? Would we have more wars, less wars? Would there even be mankind for there to be no wars? Who knows? Maybe it sparks a good conversation. And then we got Vivek Ramaswamy, once a superstar on the Republican side, now going against Amy in Ohio. The calcium numbers came up

• 4:28Patrick Bet-David?

  and the calcium numbers are not looking favorable for Vivek and maybe we can talk about why that happened, why that's happening. And then Cash Patel, you know, I'm watching Kennedy. What's his name? What's the gentleman's name? His first? John Kennedy? He's phenomenal. He's asking Cash, I heard you changed the requirements to be an FBI agent. We did. Now, why would you change the requirements for bestiality? Says, we have to do it because of if people were tied to, what does he say? If people were tied to, what do you call it? Human trafficking and you were forced to, he said, so we want to protect. Some unsavory thing. Yeah. He says, we want to protect them on both sides. He says, oh, so you're going

• 5:09Patrick Bet-David?

  to protect animals from bestiality? He says, no, he starts laughing. So people are wondering, why would you allow people who have experienced bestiality to become FBI agents? It's a valid question to bring up. It's actually a very weird thing to even do.

• 5:22Speaker 02

  His answer was worse than the question.

• 5:23Patrick Bet-David?

  His answer?

• 5:24Speaker 02

  It was far worse than the question.

• 5:25Patrick Bet-David?

  Whose answer? Kennedy's or Cash's?

• 5:26Speaker 02

  No, Cash's.

• 5:27Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, it was a very weird answer.

• 5:29Speaker 02

  The way, the implications of his answer were far worse than the question.

• 5:32Patrick Bet-David?

  So you know, I think, I think, I have a, I have an idea of what I think they're doing with that. And maybe we'll get into that. Lindsay Clancy's Holdout juror, a man who interviewed him. His name is now out there. His brother's coming out talking about why he made the decision. And one African American man who interviewed him saying why he chose the position from day one and never changed. And then farmers who voted for the president are not happy right now. They're having a hard time financially. And then we'll definitely talk about some gas prices. And there was a college girl, I believe at York College, Pennsylvania was attacked. This video went viral. Nobody on mainstream media talked about it at all whatsoever. I'll go to Will on this. And then last but not least, for some of you guys that are watching football, for those of you guys that watch football, I'm

• 6:15Patrick Bet-David?

  going to give you a statistic, which is very crazy. There's this quarterback named Josh Allen, which is kind of a big deal. Did you know, Adam and Tom, that Josh, and by the way, Will, I know you follow this stuff closely. Did you know Josh Allen has more rushing touchdowns? 83 than Frank Gore, all time, than Edgerrin James, all time, then Tony Dorsett, all time, then Earl Campbell, all time, then Ezekiel Elliott, all time, then LeSean McCoy, all time, then Eddie George, all time, then Ricky Williams, all time, then Tiki Barber, Josh Allen. And Josh Allen is not even a flipping running back. All these guys were

• 6:57Patrick Bet-David?

  great running back. He's a quarterback with 83 rushing touchdowns. Holy moly. And I bring this up because this man's a diehard Bills fan. And I used to be a Bills fan when they, when I first came to this, it's very common for Iranians that they come to America, they become Bills fans. It's very natural. Yeah. Thurman Thomas, BB, all those old guys. But anyways, with that being said, before we get started, we just recently came up, we had a lot of shirts that we would sell with all the value tainment and the gear that we had. And based on what people were asking about, we went and got the highest quality cotton, Pima cotton shirts. When you put this on, you're, you're going to notice your wife's going to touch you more because it's so soft. She's going to be like, babe, come

• 7:41Patrick Bet-David?

  here. And I don't know if you want, maybe you don't want that. If you do want that, you may want to order a couple of these for yourself. Go ahead, guys.

• 7:48Speaker 03

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• 8:20Patrick Bet-David?

  There you go. Go to FLB.com. These come in navy blue. They, they look insane. Navy blue, super light. We got them in black. We got them in tan, green and white. Go to FLB.com, place your order, get all the colors for yourself, your son, your husband, your brother. Super, super comfortable shirts that we have here. But go to FLB.com, get the latest Pima cotton shirts and start sporting the FLB gear. Again, FLB.com. With that being said, let's get right into it. First topic I want to start off with is interest rates. The Federal Reserve raises the rates. Everybody's like Kevin Walsh goes up on the stage. He took maybe five seconds. He says, the Federal Reserve has decided to raise the rates a quarter of a basis point. The market within minutes loses a half a trillion dollars

• 9:05Patrick Bet-David?

  of valuation at the time. It's recovered ever since. Lots of topics, lots of people started talking, what's going to happen next? Jeff, when you first saw this, were you surprised? And was this the right move?

• 9:16Speaker 02

  No, and no.

• 9:18Patrick Bet-David?

  You're not surprised?

• 9:19Speaker 02

  No, no.

• 9:19Patrick Bet-David?

  Well, you don't think this is the right move?

• 9:20Speaker 02

  No, it wasn't the right move.

• 9:21Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, tell me why.

• 9:22Speaker 02

  There's a couple of reasons. First of all, the reason the Fed actually did raise rates is simply because they don't know. They're, they're basically saying, we think what's going to happen in the short run is that consumer prices are going to go up, which they already have due to energy prices. We're worried that they could spill over into other prices and become broader inflation.

• 9:41Patrick Bet-David?

  Inflation went up to what? 5.3, whatever the number was?

• 9:43Speaker 02

  Four, four and a half, depending on which measure you're talking about, CPI versus the PC. They, they look at the PC deflator, which has been a little bit higher than the CPI. But they realize that an energy shock doesn't necessarily become inflation. In fact, historically, it doesn't. So when you look at their summary of economic projections, which is the material that comes out with the press conference, what they actually model, what they're actually expecting is that consumer prices will go up in 2026 and then decelerate in 2027. So if that's the case, you ask, why the hell would you raise rates? If you actually think that there's no inflation problem next year, other than energy prices, why would you raise rates? And the answer is, they're not actually confident in their projections. They think that this is going to happen because this is what normally happens. However, they also remember what they said in 2022.

• 10:27Tom Ellsworth?

  So basically Kevin Warsh is taking out a somewhat of an insurance policy. It's more of a symbolic symbolic insurance policy than that. We're going to raise rates because we think this is a one time increase in energy prices. And once the oil prices go back down lower, we won't have an inflation problem. We don't know for sure. Because I don't want to be Jay Powell and be criticized heavily by basically everybody for not doing something. We're going to proactively raise rates to make it look like we're we're on the ball here about an inflation problem, but we don't think we have, but we might actually have. So it's it's it's it's a combination of things. So is it the right idea? Is it the right is it the right tactic? No, of course not. They're just basically saying we're not really confident that what we think is going to happen is going to happen.

• 11:08Patrick Bet-David?

  Well, what are you up with that?

• 11:10Speaker 05

  It's pretty laughable that they're thinking, you know, we might not have an inflation problem later on and thinking that, oh, it's going to get better and everything's going to slow down. I mean, you're talking about 5% inflation. When you look at the numbers on just basic consumer goods, I mean, there's inflation on things with beef and coffee and, you know, normal things that people are using that is much higher than just a 5% increase. So I see this getting a lot worse before it gets better. But to me, the real question is, you know, I'm an anti Fed guy. I think the Federal Reserve has been bad for America since its inception. You had the second central bank of the United States, which was shut down, then they made the Federal Reserve. And for me, I just don't understand why we have 12 people who are deciding essentially the economic future, economic reality of a $30 trillion economy. It makes no sense.

• 11:53Speaker 05

  And it's the same thing because, you know, Trump is talking about 1% interest rates. I wouldn't want Trump to be in charge of this either.

• 11:58Patrick Bet-David?

  Lowering it to 1%.

• 12:00Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah. You don't want that, no. Lower interest rates are bad.

• 12:03Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, I mean, you heard Japan also raised the rates to highest in 31 years.

• 12:08Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, that raises another question, okay? This is not just a US problem, right? If we're having this energy shock and the effect on consumer prices in Europe, in Japan, in Asia, not China, China's a different story entirely, but most of the rest of the world. So most of the rest of the world is having a consumer price problem. What the hell is the Federal Reserve going to do? If it's a global factor, it's a set of global factors. Why is the Fed responding to global factors that are beyond its capabilities to begin with? And I agree with you, Will. The Fed is it's not what everybody thinks it is. It doesn't actually control the economy. In fact, the real purpose of the Fed is for periods like this. So if you're a politician like Trump, you can say, this is a mess. You guys screwed it up. This is I didn't do this. It's not my fault. It's your it's your fault. The Fed is basically a lightning rod. That's what it exists for.

• 12:53Speaker 05

  Yeah, it's easy to blame people or it's easy to blame the Fed as a politician for all the problems that are going on.

• 12:57Tom Ellsworth?

  Or anybody, right? Anything, you know, the market can blame the Fed for raise, oh, stocks went down, damn Fed, why did they raise rates? I mean, it's it's the illusion of control.

• 13:05Patrick Bet-David?

  So Tom, let me ask you this. So if Japan raises the rates and typically when you look at Japan raising the rates and us, we're not on the same page, 75% to 80% of the time, not moving together. Okay, we're not. 20% of the time to 25% of the time, we move together. What we do, they do, the other 75, 85, we don't. We raise the rates, they raise the rates to the highest. And we know at one point, these guys had negative point 1% was their rates for about an eight year period from 2016 to 2024, which that's the extreme, complete opposite. By the way, when we're talking about them raising their rates, you know what the Japan's federal rate is right now? What do you think their rate is right now?

• 13:43Tom Ellsworth?

  One and a quarter.

• 13:44Patrick Bet-David?

  1%.

• 13:45Tom Ellsworth?

  Oh, wow.

• 13:46Patrick Bet-David?

  They're exactly at 1% right now. It's not like it's a astronomical number that they have. They're at 1%. They stayed negative for eight years. Why do you think both parties, Japan and US are on the same page with this?

• 13:56Tom Ellsworth?

  I think they're on the same page for different reasons. And I and I think you have to remember.

• 14:00Patrick Bet-David?

  So you don't think there's like a correlation between the two?

• 14:02Tom Ellsworth?

  I think they watch each other, but I don't think there's as much correlation when you take a look at what what our Fed did or what our Fed did is something that's non-correlated. They said, we're raising rates. And by the way, you guys are teasing me about fighting with Jeff.

• 14:14Speaker 05

  I'm going to fight with you.

• 14:16Tom Ellsworth?

  But I agree with I agree with I agree with Jeff on this, and I'll go into the specifics. This is absolutely a supply shock, and it is a supply shock, to be exact, that is 65% the barrel of oil, which has moved since February 28th, when the fund started, and it is 35% the 321 crack spread, which has been driven by refinery closures in the United States, and we have a shortage of refinery capability, which also has raised the price of a gallon of gas and worse, a gallon of diesel, because the economy runs on diesel. And that's my point. The economy runs on diesel, and you can take a look at the inflation you're seeing everywhere

• 14:59Tom Ellsworth?

  from a strawberry to the gallon of gas, and you find it's in the supply shock. That is related to energy. And so they are taking a pay if they if they here's what the Fed did. I'm going to prove my independence from the president. I'm going to raise rates a quarter point, not a half, not a whole point. So not like a not like a 2009, 2008 crash, and I'm moving things big. I'm just going to raise by a quarter point, and I'm giving lip service to inflation because I don't want to be wrong. I agree with Jeff on that point. They basically did this to give them a get out of jail free card if inflation keeps going up. Well, I tried. I raised it a little bit.

• 15:43Tom Ellsworth?

  That's the textbook thing to do, except the inflation is not related to that. And when they're talking about next year go down, basically what you need is you're only going to get part of it back. You stop the war and you get oil running and you get the Venezuelan stuff, the heavy crude coming across the Gulf of America, coming into Houston. Okay, you're going to get some relief, but you're not going to get relief on on refining costs in the US. You're only going to get some of it back. And so just and raising rates by a quarter point doesn't build another refinery. Raising rates by a quarter point doesn't open the Strait of Hormuz, and raising rates by a quarter point.

• 16:17Patrick Bet-David?

  So why do it? Why do it?

• 16:19Tom Ellsworth?

  Because they wanted to get out of he wanted to prove his independence from the president. He wanted to say it's inflation, because everybody's saying inflation, inflation, inflation, and he's getting beat pretty hard.

• 16:29Patrick Bet-David?

  So let me ask you a question. Does this right now make asset look good? Because he was another one that they were looking at. So yeah, so you would you think he would have done anything different?

• 16:39Speaker 05

  No, there's there's technical reasons for this, too. I mean, you don't want to get into the econometrics here. They have something called R star, which is how they evaluate where interest rates should be. And there's a whole big argument there. It's not strictly.

• 16:49Patrick Bet-David?

  What I'm asking you is the following. Could the president have chosen somebody else that would have not raised rates and would have lowered it?

• 16:55Speaker 05

  No, in this situation.

• 16:56Patrick Bet-David?

  This is very important, by the way. If you if you can isolate this issue, go for it, because a lot of people are saying maybe he could have chosen somebody else.

• 17:02Speaker 05

  Wouldn't have made a difference.

• 17:03Patrick Bet-David?

  So anybody the president would have chosen, you're saying it would have been the same result?

• 17:07Speaker 05

  It would have been the same.

• 17:08Patrick Bet-David?

  Because the pressure they get from who?

• 17:09Speaker 05

  The pressure they get from, first of all, the staff, the the Federal Reserve does take a look at the economy. They have all these sophisticated econometric models that tell them they should do this if this set of circumstances arises. And that set of circumstances, a bunch of these boxes checked. So whoever was going to be Fed chairman was going to say, I have to raise rates because the staff is telling me I have to raise rates.

• 17:27Tom Ellsworth?

  And by the way, the issue is the misunderstanding of inflation. They're saying it's inflation. It's inflation. Well, wait a minute. It's like having it's like having the flu. What flu do you have? Do you have common seasonal flu or do you have COVID? They're saying there is inflation, Pat, and everybody around him is saying inflation. So guess what? You reach into Batman's utility belt and you pull out a quarter point increase, but they're failing to look at what's causing the inflation. It is not overheated driving economy. With a K-shaped economy, by definition, the middle class isn't getting jobs and raises and and wage inflation, which drives broad inflation because you have to pay your people more than you have to raise price on your products. That's not what we're seeing. It's a supply shock inflation.

• 18:09Tom Ellsworth?

  But they're sticking with the it's inflation and they made the move. Look, I'm going to default to you guys when it comes to these macroeconomic things. I'll just give my two cents. If you told us six months ago, a year ago, that the new chairman of the Fed would basically go against Trump and raise interest rates, I'd say you got to be kidding me. Because the the sort of the illusion was that Trump was handpicking exactly who we want in the Fed. He's basically condemning Jerome Powell, and he's going to handpick his guy. What we've just realized is Trump is not a king. The guy he picked to be chairman of the Fed in his first major move was like, yeah, sorry, Trump, inflation's up, I'm going against you. And by the way, it says it was unanimous by the committee.

• 18:52Speaker 05

  12-0.

• 18:53Tom Ellsworth?

  Completely unanimous. So when Trump says this was only for political reasons, I don't think so. I think they're actually trying to fight inflation.

• 19:00Patrick Bet-David?

  But I think that's what Jeff is saying. And to me, I would rather know that. And by the way, what do you think is a likelihood that Kevin talked to the president, telling him that I'm going to be raising the rates before actually doing it? Do you think that conversation happened? What do you think is a likelihood?

• 19:15Speaker 05

  He was asked about it, and he invaded the question.

• 19:17Patrick Bet-David?

  But what do you think is likelihood that they spoke?

• 19:19Speaker 05

  Oh, of course he did.

• 19:20Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, so to me, but but I will tell you, I don't think Trump is as pissed off as you would have expected him to be. I don't think Trump is pissed at Kevin. I think Trump is sitting there saying, here's the conversation could have gone something like this. Hey, Mr. President, I have to raise the rates, and they're voting unanimously, and I'm telling you the news first. Great. Then Trump may say, I'm going to trash it as well, and I'm going to disagree with it publicly. No, I know, Mr. President, what are you going to do? I'm just letting you know as respect that you're going to know. A call could go like that, but Trump himself doesn't seem surprised. The people I see that are surprised are maybe the guys like Tom, maybe the guys that are in the business, maybe the guys that are saying, maybe not even you, that it's people that are like, why would they raise the rates? Why would they do this? This is not the right thing to do. Even Trump doesn't seem surprised that they raised the rates.

• 20:05Tom Ellsworth?

  Did we about were we about to have the clip there where Trump talks about it?

• 20:09Patrick Bet-David?

  And by the way, correction, the rates in Japan is one and a quarter. You were right. So it's not one, it's one and a quarter. What is this clip? This is the clip with.

• 20:15Speaker 05

  See, that's the point. You know, the comparison isn't Japan. It's how it's the US, the Federal Reserve usually acts in concert with every central bank around the world. Japan is the outlier.

• 20:24Speaker 02

  Political and hostile.

• 20:25Speaker 05

  Yeah, so these, again, these these things are global.

• 20:27Patrick Bet-David?

  You're saying the EU. Play this clip. Go for it. Watch this clip. This is Trump. Go ahead.

• 20:33Speaker 06

  Yeah, I do. I mean, I'm relying on Kevin, but he's got, you know, a very tough board. He's got a board that was put there by a lot of other people, and the interest rates are too high. They're not appropriate. And I told I talked to Kevin, and I said, you might as well vote with the board because it's not going to matter. The board is very hostile. They're very political. They're doing the wrong thing. They're a bunch of politicians or people put on by politicians.

• 20:57Patrick Bet-David?

  This is this is my point.

• 20:58Speaker 06

  It's a shame because.

• 20:59Patrick Bet-David?

  You can pause it right there. My point is, he is not pissed off at Kevin the way he was pissed off at Powell. It's a very different relationship, because I think even he knew. So let me get to the next story here, which kind of goes together. Do you know what is special about today? Do you know the record numbers on the highest diesel price ever per gallon is today, ever in the history of America? Today's the record, ever. 645 is today. The previous highs that we hit numbers wise was June of 2022, was the previous AAA high that we hit. This is right around when the war got started with.

• 21:35Patrick Bet-David?

  Russia and Ukraine, and if you want to go even previous to that, when we hit a record high was I think 2008 when diesel hit, is it eight? I think it is 2008.

• 21:45Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 21:46Patrick Bet-David?

  Yes, peak of July of 2008. So 476, that was the peak. We had never experienced that before. June 22, 581, we had never experienced that before. And then today, 645 diesel, we've never experienced this before. So you'll hear a lot of people say this directly impacts. So some people may say, well, but I don't drive diesel. It's not about you driving diesel. It's about all the trucking companies, transportation moving, they're paying more. Cost is going to go up. They have to pass it down to somebody else. You saw burger prices being higher and you're seeing a reflection in different places. I'm going to go to one story, then Jeff, I'm going to come to you first. So JP Morgan Chase, and Tom brought it up this morning. JP Morgan Chase is being asked about what they think is going to happen with oil. Give us an opinion, Will.

• 22:30Patrick Bet-David?

  You're an analyst at JP Morgan Chase. What do you think is going to happen? Here's what the analyst said. This is a Bloomberg article. More than six months after the start of the Iran war, JP Morgan Chase, oil analysts, are stating what many traders have been saying privately. The path to the end of the war is increasingly impossible to predict. So if you can't predict how it's going to end, I cannot tell you what's going to happen to oil prices. Several economic red lines, the bank assumed the administration would be unwilling to cross, including oil above $100 a barrel, gasoline near $5 a gallon, surging treasury yields have already happened, making the exit strategy less clear. Analysts, including Natasha Keneva, said in a note, "The market is on edge, in our view."

• 23:15Patrick Bet-David?

  The analyst wrote, "Oil fair value in September is estimated around $90 a barrel. Prices through close to 106." And implying the market is pricing in a risk of additional 4 million barrels a day of supply losses, on top of the 10 million barrels a day already disrupted. So it seems like the market can't see what's going to happen to oil prices. What do you say, Jeff?

• 23:35Speaker 02

  It's not really about oil. It's like you said, it's about diesel and gasoline, and that's where the problem is. The bottleneck in energy has moved from oil to the distillates. There's a lack of refinery capacity, as Tom pointed out, in the United States, which is coming back to haunt us at the worst possible time. You've got disruptions with Russian diesel exports, which have been banned, because they have their own problems over there. You've got issues with the Middle East, and then all sorts of shortages that are going to start appearing in Asia and other places, which is going to bid up the price of diesel as well as gasoline. With crack spreads, and the crack spread is simply a market price that gives you an estimate of how the physical, physical reality of the energy market, and the diesel crack

• 24:16Speaker 02

  spread right now is ridiculously high, $112 per barrel, which is insane. But that goes to show you the level of desperation and urgency in the energy market, because there's that, that, that level of a potential shortfall in diesel, and we're rapidly, rapidly running through all the inventories and supplies as it is. So the market is basically saying, once that physical shortfall really starts to manifest itself, we don't know where prices are going to end up. The $6, $6.50, $7 range that we're getting now in diesel is probably just the beginning. So diesel prices are-

• 24:50Patrick Bet-David?

  How high do you think it's going to hit?

• 24:51Speaker 02

  Oh, we can see $10.

• 24:52Patrick Bet-David?

  $10 of these, by when?

• 24:54Speaker 02

  I have no idea. That's the thing.

• 24:56Patrick Bet-David?

  Give me, give me the timeline, shortest, latest.

• 24:58Speaker 02

  Shortest would be the end of the year.

• 24:59Patrick Bet-David?

  Of course, we're eventually going to hit $10, but I'm saying like-

• 25:01Speaker 02

  End of the year. It's that soon. It's that, that close.

• 25:04Patrick Bet-David?

  In December, diesel could hit $10 a gallon.

• 25:06Speaker 02

  $10 a gallon. And then the consequence-

• 25:08Patrick Bet-David?

  Why do you say that? Based on what?

• 25:10Speaker 02

  Sure, again, the crack spread. Crack spread is an estimate of how much of, there's a price dislocation in the market.

• 25:15Patrick Bet-David?

  Is this it right here that you're talking about, the crack spread?

• 25:17Speaker 02

  No, that's world inventories.

• 25:18Patrick Bet-David?

  Can you pull up the crack spread real quick? So the crack spread shows what?

• 25:22Speaker 02

  The crack spread shows you how profitable it is to refine a barrel of oil. That's 321 crack spread, which is oil, which is gasoline plus distillate fuel.

• 25:32Patrick Bet-David?

  Explain it to the average person out there, so they can understand.

• 25:34Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, I've never heard of the crack spread.

• 25:36Speaker 02

  No.

• 25:37Patrick Bet-David?

  Pretty, pretty terrible. I thought we were going to go to a porn hop or something.

• 25:40Tom Ellsworth?

  I thought we were going to the hood or something right now.

• 25:41Speaker 02

  I know, you'll have a lot more fun.

• 25:42Patrick Bet-David?

  We've done that before, but go ahead.

• 25:43Speaker 02

  When we're talking about crack spread, you know things are not good.

• 25:45Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 25:46Speaker 02

  So the crack spread basically tells you the price of oil-

• 25:48Patrick Bet-David?

  Depends on who it is.

• 25:49Speaker 02

  How do you, how profitable is it to convert? Sorry.

• 25:52Patrick Bet-David?

  But, no, I'm-

• 25:53Speaker 02

  How, how prof-

• 25:54Patrick Bet-David?

  I'm just saying.

• 25:55Speaker 02

  It's true.

• 25:56Patrick Bet-David?

  You guys got dirty minds here. Stay focused. Go ahead.

• 26:00Speaker 02

  How profitable is it to refine a barrel of oil into, in a 321 crack spread, it's three barrels of oil into two, two barrels of gasoline and one barrel of distillate stuff. Diesel, it's a little bit different, but it's a similar idea. And so when the crack spread is high, what that basically tells you is that it's very profitable to take a barrel of oil and turn it into something useful. And the reason it's profitable to do so is because the marketplace says, "I want that something useful, and I'm so desperate for it, I will pay a premium to do so." So the crack spread is basically a premium on supply.

• 26:29Patrick Bet-David?

  Jeff, who else agrees with you that diesel could hit $10? If the JP Morgan Chase analyst is not making any predictions, who else agrees with you that could hit $10?

• 26:37Speaker 02

  I think the marketplace does.

• 26:38Patrick Bet-David?

  The marketplace?

• 26:39Speaker 02

  The marketplace. That's why the crack spread is that high. But also, I mean, the reason they said we can't model this is because they don't want to say it'll be $10 a gallon.

• 26:46Patrick Bet-David?

  So do me a favor. Do you think the president knows this?

• 26:48Speaker 02

  Yeah, absolutely.

• 26:49Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, so if the president knows this, and you're in his ear, and let you say that conversation is taking place, Mr. President, diesel could hit $10 by December. Midterms are when? November. What does he keep saying? Gas prices are going to drop right after the election midterms. Why is he saying that? Because he needs to win midterms. The, you think the average person's buying that?

• 27:09Speaker 02

  No.

• 27:10Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay. So let's say it does go to $10. What happens to America? What happens to the market? What is, what does the average person do if it hits $10?

• 27:18Speaker 02

  If it hits $10, what will happen is you'll see layoffs. You'll see jobs disappear. You'll see companies that are struggling. You will see a lot of weak companies that have been kept alive through refinancing debt start to go under. It will be economically, every, it will be like every other energy shock that we've gone through in history. It leads into a recession. And I think Trump knows, I've said this from the very beginning. Trump said Iran is worth the cost. If we have to go into a global recession, if I lose the midterms really badly, it's worth the cost. And so everybody expected these, you know, the, the idea that there's these red lines in the energy market, that was never, never a case.

• 27:51Patrick Bet-David?

  Do you agree with him that Iran's worth the cost?

• 27:53Speaker 02

  If he gets it, if he, if he executes it correctly, yes, it will be worth it. Long run.

• 27:57Patrick Bet-David?

  So you're, you're part of a minority group that believes that?

• 27:59Speaker 02

  I understand, yeah.

• 28:00Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay. But you're saying if he gets it done, it's worth it? Why?

• 28:03Speaker 02

  Because of the, the short run, the, the pain in the economy will be in the short run. If Iran actually turns into a, you know, what we all hope it could be, that's a long run future that's hugely positive. So it would be worth the short run economic pain and political pain, because it's going to be political pain. I think Republicans need to steel themselves for how this election is going to go.

• 28:23Patrick Bet-David?

  Well, where do you have to go with this?

• 28:24Speaker 02

  Well, I just want to say this. When the Iran war started, I was one of the, you know, few voices who were saying, "I don't think this is a good idea," everything like that. And I got called a liberal. I got called a traitor. You know, I'm now a horrible person and all this, and no longer a conservative.

• 28:36Tom Ellsworth?

  You're a Russian shill.

• 28:37Speaker 02

  Russian shill, you know? And everyone was telling me at the time, "Go back and read the comments on my videos about the Iran war." They said, "Two weeks, this is going to be done. It's all going to be taken care of. You know, oil prices are going to go way down. Everything's going to be great. We're going to figure it out." And now look at where we are, you know? And I hate to be the guy-

• 28:51Patrick Bet-David?

  But what was your reasoning for not being forward at that time?

• 28:54Speaker 02

  Well, I think we've seen this, you know, song and dance before with the endless wars. And for me, I just, I don't see it working out any other way, you know? Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan. I mean, it all seems to me, the same to me. And I didn't want America dragged in. And that's not just from, you know, Americans going overseas and being separated from their families, potentially dying, but also from this economic standpoint that we're looking at, you know? It seems to me like you're making companies like Lockheed Martin and Boeing incredibly rich with these defense contracts. And I know, again, this, people will be like, "You sound like a liberal right now, you know, anti-war liberal." But, you know-

• 29:24Patrick Bet-David?

  But it's true.

• 29:25Speaker 02

  To be honest, this is, this is what it really goes down to.

• 29:27Patrick Bet-David?

  No, I think, I think a lot of conservatives would agree with that whole, we all know what, who was it? Eisenhower before he stepped down, where he says, "Be careful with the military industrial complex, that how much money they can make and keep the wars going." I get that part, Tom. Where are you at with this?

• 29:40Tom Ellsworth?

  I'll tell you where I'm at with this right now, is that if you take a look at where that crack spread was before it started, and I think we were at $24, $26. So it's $24 to $26 to take a barrel of oil and to turn three barrels of oil into two barrels of gasoline and one barrel of diesel. That is up now three and a half X. And so I think right now, I think we are literally a couple of weeks from seeing $8 a gallon in some of the high tax states on diesel, like California, and it's devastating. That, soon as you touch that, you're, you are playing with fire right now. And as soon as you touch $8 diesel, you're going to see layoffs in hospitality.

• 30:20Tom Ellsworth?

  The hospitality industry, which is discretionary consumer spending, is going to do a face plant. It is absolutely going to stop. It's going to be like COVID. Similar, what I'm saying is, similar to COVID, that the, the revenue stop will stop so quickly. You have restaurants and independent restaurants that are not supported by national franchise fees and things like that, already that are under deep stress or laying people off right now in hospitality. You're seeing it. And you see the jobs report, which included seasonal things that happened, specifically in education, as everybody went back to school, and the jobs report was misread. And so what I see right now, I see misreadings. And I, to answer your question directly, I'm worried about $8 diesel, because I think

• 31:04Tom Ellsworth?

  that just, that's where the tree starts. The, the tree right now is leaning. I think the tree falls at $8 diesel, and I think we have a very tough winter and we have a recession.

• 31:13Speaker 02

  Like you said with COVID, oh, sorry, I didn't-

• 31:15Patrick Bet-David?

  Go forward. No, no, go ahead.

• 31:17Speaker 02

  Like you said with COVID, I mean, the most important thing with that, it was like, what, 60% of all small businesses in America shut down? And that's what it seems like it's going to be again.

• 31:23Patrick Bet-David?

  You think this is going to be a that level type crisis?

• 31:25Speaker 02

  Well, it's funny, I was just on the phone, I always talk to my family, and, and my sister is married and, and looking to maybe buy a house. I'm like, "I'm not buying a house right now. Everything's going to crash soon enough."

• 31:34Patrick Bet-David?

  How old are you?

• 31:35Speaker 02

  I'm 20, or just turned 30 actually, last week, so 30.

• 31:38Patrick Bet-David?

  Happy birthday.

• 31:39Tom Ellsworth?

  Congratulations.

• 31:40Speaker 02

  I know, I know. I decided to just say 29 forever.

• 31:42Tom Ellsworth?

  Just like I'm 40 still, Pat.

• 31:43Speaker 02

  Yeah, exactly. You know, but it seems like the small businesses are all going to get shut down. The big businesses are going to take another huge win off of this. I mean, you know, it seems to me like it's going the exact same way.

• 31:53Tom Ellsworth?

  Look, I, I think these are all worthy discussions, and discussions that need to be having, gas prices, oil prices. I keep going back to the same thing. This is where I respectfully disagree with my super liberal friend, Will, right here. If we didn't deal with Iran now, when would we have dealt with them? Because if not Trump, then who? President AOC?

• 32:13Patrick Bet-David?

  I will tell you this, though. You better finish the deal.

• 32:16Tom Ellsworth?

  Okay.

• 32:17Patrick Bet-David?

  You better finish, and this is a guy that you know where I stand.

• 32:20Tom Ellsworth?

  I fully agree. But if we didn't do it now, what would happen in five, 10, 20 years, when they actually have a nuclear weapon? When they actually have more capabilities, and it's not even a nuclear, they were building up their, their missile shield, that if you even tried to attack them, they would have unleashed hell and fire and fury around any of their neighbors. So yes, it sucks. Yes, gas prices are high. Yes, inflation is higher. Yes, core inflation and CPI is higher. But I will ask you this. If we didn't do it now, how much worse would it have been five, 10, 20 years from now? That's what I keep going back to. Yes, we need to finish the job. Yes, we need to clean this up. But I'm, I'm coming back to-

• 32:58Speaker 02

  You can say that, Adam, but you-

• 32:59Tom Ellsworth?

  But I'm, I'm coming-

• 33:01Patrick Bet-David?

  Those are two different discussions.

• 33:02Speaker 02

  Coming back to how this all started. We're figuring out how this is ending.

• 33:05Patrick Bet-David?

  Jeff said the best thing. Jeff said the best thing. Jeff said, he said, if I lose the midterms, if I lose this, if I lose that, if I lose that, guess what? It's all worth it. Guess what, folks? You didn't become the president.

• 33:18Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 33:18Patrick Bet-David?

  President Trump did. So you, and by the way, guess what? President Trump can't say, why is the media talking smack about me and the podcasters? That's what happens when you're the president. Everybody gets to talk trash and you get to say, agree, disagree, fake news, whatever. But if you're making this massive type of a bold position that you're going to put the Iranian regime out, guess what this works like? If you do it, your face is up there with Mount Rushmore type of conversations and you did something that all these other politicians talked about, you close the deal. If you don't do it, AOC is the president in 2028. It's that simple for me. And let me simplify it for you. I'm going to say this to you one more time.

• 34:00Patrick Bet-David?

  If he pulls it off, JD or Rubio are president in 2028. If he pulls it off, one of those two guys will be president and probably more Rubio if he pulls it off. Okay? You understand why it's going to be probably more Rubio if he pulls it off? If he pulls it, if he doesn't pull it off, here you go. Socialism's here in America. And you know why socialism is going to be here in America? Because if this goes to eight, if this goes to 10, if even conservatives and farmers, here's a story from farmers, and I'm going to come to you with this, Jeff. Farmers who voted for Trump talk about impact of high cost for Iran war tariffs. We're all just in survival mode is what farmers are saying. Okay. So you know, we need these guys. These are people that are not wanting a lot of recognition. They just do it because they love their jobs.

• 34:45Patrick Bet-David?

  Matt Bell, 52 years old, North Carolina farmer who grows soybeans, corn and wheat and raises cattle on more than 1,000 acres, voted for Trump and now says soaring fuel fertilizer and equipment prices are crushing them. I've done this for 34 years. I've never worried and stressed like this. I have in the last year. We've cut everything we can cut. There's nothing left to cut. The war with Iran and the Houthis Saudi fighting the squeezed global fuel supplies. Diesel average about 640 a gallon nationwide. Nearly double a year ago, Bell's combined burns roughly $600 of diesel a day. He blew through $35,000 of annual fuel budget in August. Tariffs attitude, everything that we touch has gone up. He said, noting that China's $10, 10% retaliatory tariff on soybeans has left the market in limbo. Bell now says the administration miscalculated the war.

• 35:30Patrick Bet-David?

  I think we've been misled and agriculture was going to mean the forefront right now. That has not happened. A Republican, he plans to split his ticket in November. We're fighting for survival and we're running out of options. So your thoughts when you hear farmers going through this because the economy?

• 35:42Speaker 02

  Yeah, I mean, that's the, I agree with you. I think the way you approach this, the macroeconomic end of it is we can sit here and argue about why, whether it was a good idea, whether it wasn't. It happened. You're exactly right.

• 35:53Patrick Bet-David?

  And he won the election. You get to do what you want when you become president.

• 35:56Speaker 02

  And the idea, the taco stuff, that was all garbage. I mean, Trump has said from the very beginning, I'm going to do this. And I don't think he's going to back down. I think he sees a pathway forward and there is, there is enough indication out there that to get off topic a little bit here. There's enough indication out there that he could actually pull this off, that the Iranian regime isn't as strong as it appears to be and that maybe the Iranians, but that's the, doesn't matter. Trump says, I'm going to do this. There are no red lines here. Diesel hits 10, cost of doing business as far as Trump is concerned. So what we have to do is analysts to say, okay, this is the reality we're working with. What happens from there? And so farmers are saying, we've cut back to bare bones. We can't handle $10 diesel without raising prices. So prices are going to go up from, for food. That's going to happen.

• 36:40Speaker 02

  What happens then? Well, most Americans aren't going to see an increase in their incomes, which means they're going to have to cut back, as Tom was saying. Where are they going to cut back? We've already seen numbers come out of places like Mexico. Tourism in Mexico has absolutely crashed in some places by 20%. And a lot of that, that crash and that decline in Mexican tourism, Americans. Americans are not flying to Mexico. Why? Because they first of all, realize that gas prices are high today, but food prices are going to be high tomorrow. And then food prices and some other things are going to be higher tomorrow. That's how you get to the recession. So the, the argument here isn't whether or not this farmer is right or you know, whether Trump was right in doing what he did. He did what he did and he's going to keep doing it. So we now have to figure out what the macroeconomic consequences are.

• 37:23Speaker 05

  I'm curious.

• 37:23Speaker 02

  And this farmer is telling us what the macroeconomic consequences will be.

• 37:27Speaker 05

  I guess I'm just curious what you're saying, you know, pull it off. Trump would pull it off. What does that even mean? Like what does pull it off mean? What is the benchmark that people could look at and say, okay, now we've finished it and it's done? Because looking, myself, looking at it, I mean, I have no idea. I have no idea what that would even be.

• 37:42Speaker 02

  There are three things that I think have been, become crystal clear that the administration defines as success. One is the nuclear program, which is less, less uncertain. I think the nuclear program is going to be a done deal, easy. The second thing is control the Strait of Hormuz. They're never going to go back. They're never going to let Iran have the Strait of, control of the Strait of Hormuz. This is a, we need to decide this issue for now and forever. You know, when they were talking earlier about the memorandum of understanding and Iran, that was, that was all just, you know, so Hormuz has to be wrestled, it has to turn into some kind of international control. And the third thing is, the more contentious one is a regime collapse. So what they're, what they're betting on is that by squeezing Iran economically, which by the way, is not a fun thing. You know, there's a lot of people in Iran who are suffering.

• 38:25Speaker 02

  But that's the, you know, the, the tactic here is to squeeze the Iranian system economically so that Iranians rise up, the moderate factions in Iran rise up, they throw off the IRGC, which the IRGC is in a war of survival, which makes it even more difficult. But that's the three things that need to happen for Trump to say, we've got this done. I think that he has shown.

• 38:44Patrick Bet-David?

  Push back. What will you get?

• 38:45Speaker 05

  Yeah, I guess it really comes down to the three things that you're talking about. They sound great, but all of those things sound like they need to be monitored by America to continue afterwards. Because what's the point of doing this? I mean, again, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan.

• 38:59Speaker 02

  I agree. No, I'm not arguing for, I'm saying this is what Trump, I think this is absolutely clear.

• 39:03Speaker 05

  It's impossible.

• 39:04Speaker 02

  Maybe it is.

• 39:05Speaker 05

  You know, really, I mean, unless you're keeping American interests, Americans over there to monitor all these things, how do you stop them?

• 39:11Patrick Bet-David?

  Let me ask you this. Let me ask you a question because I think a lot, millions of people side with you and they have the same concern that you have. And, and, and the world, if you're a leader of a country and you have your base that voted for you, supported for you, that are now concerned about this war that's starting, we don't want another endless war. What could happen with this now that would make you happy? What would, what would happen for you to say, you know what? Respect, cannot believe the president, I never thought he would be able to pull this off. Give me two or three things that could happen specifically with Iran that would make a 30 year old like you happy?

• 39:43Speaker 05

  Getting out.

• 39:44Patrick Bet-David?

  So that's one.

• 39:45Speaker 05

  I think that's the biggest thing.

• 39:46Patrick Bet-David?

  Is that the only one?

• 39:47Speaker 05

  Really, yeah, I would say.

• 39:48Patrick Bet-David?

  So let me ask you another question. So let's just say in the next six to 12 months. IR, Reagan tried this in the past in 1988, the whole operating prey and mantis. George Bush tried to do this with the IRGC, KUDS4, when he did that in 2007 against Soleimani. Obama put sanctions, sanctions on Soleimani. We know Trump killed Soleimani, the number two guy. So a lot of people have tried to do this with that. What happens if in the next six, 12, 18 months, Iran, the IRGC toppled? They're gone, regime change. That entire force is out. Okay? Pre 2028 election going into it, that's been done. What does that do to a guy like you? Does it change your position at all?

• 40:30Speaker 07

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• 42:41Speaker 02

  Potentially, it just, it really looks forward to the future. Like when Saddam Hussein was killed, you know, you had people in Iraq and Baghdad celebrating, you know, at first they were celebrating everything that was going on. They were very happy about it, but you know, then a few weeks later, a few months afterwards, you look at Iraq and the people were not happy anymore. And they're not happy now with everything that has happened. I think the issue here isn't that. Everybody would agree with you. If Trump pulls it off, everybody would celebrate. The issue is-

• 43:04Patrick Bet-David?

  But do you think though?

• 43:05Speaker 02

  Again, the pull it off-

• 43:06Patrick Bet-David?

  What I'm trying to say to you-

• 43:08Speaker 02

  The issue here is-

• 43:09Patrick Bet-David?

  I think there's two things though. I think even if he pulls it off, there's gonna be people that are gonna say, "Yeah, but you know, what's the big deal? He didn't do anything." So, when you're a leader, you have to understand as a leader, I am never gonna win Will over. The only thing Will wants for me to finish the war and move on. And guess what?

• 43:25Speaker 02

  And Trump wins me over in other things.

• 43:26Patrick Bet-David?

  No, I get that. But what I'm saying is, in this topic, I'm not gonna win Will over and these millions of people, whether I pull it off or not. So guess what? I'm gonna go do it anyway.

• 43:33Speaker 02

  I think what a lot of people have, and I'm gonna speak for you, Will, if you don't mind, I think the issue here is- More eloquently than me. No, the issue here is can, because we've heard this before. We heard it, I mean, the 1990s, the no-fly zones in Iraq. That was supposed to put pressure on Saddam Hussein. He was gonna- We've heard this before. You know, Iraq, Iraq itself. We took over Iraq, like you said, they were celebrating, the Iraqis were happy, and what happened? Two decades of just chaos, hardship, and heartache, right? So, it, the problem here is, it's very difficult for the average person to see this as a likely probability.

• 44:06Patrick Bet-David?

  I don't blame him. I don't blame him.

• 44:07Speaker 02

  Nobody does. Nobody should. I still don't think it's a high probability, but at least I think there's a plausible enough pathway that Trump says, "We can potentially do it."

• 44:14Patrick Bet-David?

  Pull off regime change.

• 44:16Speaker 02

  Credibly difficult.

• 44:16Patrick Bet-David?

  If he put, to pull off regime change, you know, there were moments where, you know, my confidence was higher because you had guys like Reza Pahlavi that were saying there's gonna be defectors in the military. None of that happened. Okay? You know, military leaders are gonna be, you know, they're gonna come out and they're gonna turn against, and all of a sudden, that did not happen. When they turn off the internet, you couldn't see what happened to Iran. The amount of people they slaughtered and killed. So, that scared the crap out of a lot of parents that said, "Where are you going? Stay home. No more protesting. Stay home. Where are you going, Will? Stay home. Stay home. You're not going anywhere," because they're worried they're gonna kill your kids next. So, the IRGC suffocated the people that had momentum, because it takes the Iranian

• 44:59Patrick Bet-David?

  people to make this happen. It's not gonna be anybody else but the Iranian people. I think the Iranian people right now are sitting there saying, "Look, man, another time we tried to take over the IRGC and we failed again, we just have to suck it up. I need a job to pay my bills. I can't feed my kids." I think that's where they are right now. How much do-

• 45:15Speaker 02

  That's the difference. That's the one, the one difference that they never did in, say, Iraq in the 1990s, the economic blockade. I think the economic blockade is having a much bigger impact than people realize.

• 45:25Patrick Bet-David?

  What Besen-

• 45:26Speaker 02

  Besen, the Navy sitting out there saying, "No ships coming in and out of Iran," the economic blockade is really decimating the Iranian economy. So, that's the key difference.

• 45:34Adam Sosnick?

  You saw this article by Breitbart where J.D. Vance talks about the first phase of the war, second phase of the war, basically says, "First phase is to destroy the nuclear program and to destroy their conventional military. Check. Second phase is to ensure that they're not able to rebuild. They're in that process." And then Scott Besen, we've been calling him Besen, but it's Besen, you know, a little flavor to it. He said, "The U.S. is waging the greatest economic isolation campaign in the history of the world against Iran through Operation Economic Outcast." Shout out to Andre3000 right there, but I think they're gonna do this. I don't know when, I don't know how, how long it's gonna take, but I'm gonna believe in our military.

• 46:14Speaker 02

  It's at least a possibility. That's the thing.

• 46:16Patrick Bet-David?

  What I'm saying to you is, there's certain, okay, so who remembers Friendster? Friendster.com.

• 46:22Adam Sosnick?

  Yeah, that was before MySpace.

• 46:23Patrick Bet-David?

  You know what Friendster was? Do you remember MySpace?

• 46:25Adam Sosnick?

  Yeah, of course.

• 46:26Patrick Bet-David?

  You know the first social media site ever was Friendster.com. It wasn't MySpace. MySpace, I think, was the second or third. But Friendster.com came up with this concept of, "Hey, let's, let's create a social media site, okay?" 24 years ago, they came out, like, "Hey, we're gonna build this thing, and people are gonna be social networking," and everyone was like, "I don't know about that. I don't, I don't know if we're gonna be doing this." 8.2 million users is what they had, right? Then others were like, "Well, listen, this Friendster idea was pretty good. They got 8.2 million users. Let's do MySpace." And then this guy named, what's his name? Bill or Tom or Tom?

• 46:58Adam Sosnick?

  Tom.

• 46:59Patrick Bet-David?

  Tom is his name.

• 47:00Adam Sosnick?

  The white shirt.

• 47:00Patrick Bet-David?

  With the white shirt. Yeah, Tom comes out with MySpace, ends up selling it for half a billion dollars, right? And Tom Anderson was his name. So, he get, they get, you know, whatever amount of users that they get. Then what follows MySpace?

• 47:11Adam Sosnick?

  Facebook.

• 47:11Patrick Bet-David?

  And Facebook is now what? A trillionado, multi-trillionado company? The rest is history. No one knows Friendster, okay? Some know MySpace. Everybody knows Zuck. What's the point? The point is, sometimes when you're doing the impossible, if you're, you know, many times people will say, "This is the guy that went bankrupt. This is the guy that built a business and went bankrupt. This is the guy that started this and went bankrupt. Look at him. He's poor, he's got nothing going on." He may have worked very hard. He may have had the right idea. He may have had the right, but he may have been a little too early for the times of being ready for

• 47:51Patrick Bet-David?

  it. But what he did is he left the fingerprints of what things to not mess with for the next guy to pull it off. I don't know if this is making sense or not.

• 47:59Adam Sosnick?

  Yeah, he set the tone.

• 48:00Patrick Bet-David?

  So, meaning, what Trump is doing here, you know what he may end up becoming? You know what he may end up becoming?

• 48:07Adam Sosnick?

  The OG of how to deal with the-

• 48:08Patrick Bet-David?

  He may end up becoming the guy that sets up the ways not to do it, on what to face, that the next guy comes in and is able to pull it off. I don't know. But if he doesn't pull it off, I'm just telling you this, if he doesn't pull it off, AOC's the president in 2028.

• 48:23Adam Sosnick?

  You mean a Democrat, not-

• 48:25Patrick Bet-David?

  A socialist will be a president, not a Democrat.

• 48:28Adam Sosnick?

  Hopefully, America's-

• 48:29Patrick Bet-David?

  Not a Democrat.

• 48:30Speaker 02

  Saying Michelle Obama. Just ask her.

• 48:32Patrick Bet-David?

  Not, yeah, not, not a socialist, but not, somebody who is a socialist.

• 48:37Adam Sosnick?

  Let me say, guys, if you like what we had to say today, contact me on Friendster.

• 48:41Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, for sure.

• 48:42Speaker 02

  In my top eight.

• 48:43Patrick Bet-David?

  Go, go, contact them in Friendster. Okay, let's go to the next story. Next story I'm gonna get to while we're going through this is two stories that kinda go together. One, Forbes comes out and announces that 580 billionaires are too poor to be on the Forbes 400 list. Let me say that one more time. There's 580 people in America that are billionaires, but they're not rich enough to be on the Forbes 590, that are not rich enough to be on the Forbes 400 list. Imagine how pissed off you would be if that was you. So, some people read that, and they're like, "Wait a minute, who gives a shit if these guys are not, why should I care for you, poor you, that you're not on the Forbes 400?" And in simultaneously, the same story, another story comes out where Tom, I'm

• 49:28Patrick Bet-David?

  trying to find a 590 story. I don't know what page that went on. Am I missing this here where it's at? There it is. Record-breaking page 11. Let me read this, and then I'll go to what other number came up at the same time, and I'm gonna ask you guys what you think about this. So, just having 10 figures is not enough. The minimum net worth to make it on the Forbes 400 list today, ready? You have to be worth $4.4 billion to be on there. 600 million more than a year ago,

• 49:53Patrick Bet-David?

  leaving a record 590 billionaires too poor to make the list up from 500 in 2025. So, that means that's an increase of 90. Every notable name who fell short, Oprah Winfrey, media and entertainment, 3.4 billion, not Forbes 400. Roblox founder, 3.4 billion, not in it. Sam Altman, 3.3 billion, he's not in it. Tim Cook, 3 billion, too poor to be in the Forbes 400. Tyler and Cameron, Winklevoss, 2.9 billion. Jay-Z, 2.8 billion. Taylor Swift, 2 billion. Kim Kardashian, 1.9. LeBron James, 1.4. Sanjay Mehta from Micron, 1.2. Arnold Schwarzenegger, apparently his net worth is 1.2 billion. Good for him. Beyonce, 1 billion. Dre, 1 billion. You got a few other people there. Now, while this story comes out, this other story comes out, I hope I can find this

• 50:38Patrick Bet-David?

  one, if you guys can point me to it, you know which one I'm talking about. "Americans' income hits record, but lower earners lose ground." What page is that one on? There it is, page four. Let me read this to you, and then Jeff, I'm gonna come to you, then Tom, I'll come to you right afterwards. "U.S. household income in 20, hit a record in 2025 with real median income rising 2.6% to $87,000. Highest inflation-adjusted level since its record began in 1967, while official poverty level to 10.2%, but the gains were uneven incoming, income among the wealthiest 10% of the American rose 1.7%, while the bottom 10% saw no significant change. And the top five

• 51:19Patrick Bet-David?

  of, the top fifth of households captured 52.4% of all income versus 3%." So, you know, Jeff, the, the concept of rich getting richer, poor getting poor, is that what's happening here? Or is there something deeper we're not looking at?

• 51:34Speaker 02

  No, that's, that's exactly it. The economy doesn't work, and people realize that. I mean, the simplest way to think about it is, okay, if you have 100 people, 99 people, their income is $50,000, and it goes up 1% to $50,500. The 90, the 100th person has income of a million, and it goes up to a million, million one. The aggregate statistic looks good, because the average, the, the entire income, average income goes up. But if you polled those people, what would ended up happening? One person would say the economy's great, and 99 people would say the economy sucks. So, it's the difference between averages and what people actually experience. And this is a real phenomenon, and it has been happening especially since 2021 and 2022, really the lockdowns. Ever since the lockdowns, it has been-

• 52:16Speaker 02

  They call it a K-shaped, Chris Martinson called it an I-shaped economy, which is probably a better representation of it. People at the top are doing well. People at the top have no problems. They are able to shelter their wealth because they have access to financial markets and leverage and liquidity that nobody else does. If your only asset is your labor, your labor has been devalued since 2022 in a substantial way. So you've been made poor and people realize that. And so we have all these statistics that say if you're at the top, you're doing well. And if you're at the bottom, you're not doing well. The problem is there are more people going into the bottom than there is going to the top. So while there may be 590 billionaires who don't make the Forbes list, how many thousands and millions of Americans are falling into the bottom part of the economy? Well, if you ask Americans, they'll tell you. I brought a couple of charts here.

• 53:01Speaker 02

  I don't know, Connor, if you can bring them up. This is one reason why Republicans really need to be, really need to be on alert for the election here. Americans' view of the economy is exactly the opposite of what you hear in the media. So you hear, you know, Kevin Worsch talk about how resilient the economy is. Americans are, they want to flip him the finger and say, what the fuck are you talking about? It's the University of Michigan Consumer Survey. This is a survey that goes back into the 1960s. They've been doing monthly surveys since the late 1970s. Americans' assessment of their own current financial situation today is equal to the worst levels of each past recession that we've had since the 1970s. That's how Americans think about the economy. Not just their own financial situation, what they think about the lack of jobs.

• 53:44Patrick Bet-David?

  How do they measure this? How is this measured?

• 53:46Speaker 02

  It's measured the amount of people who say that their financial situation is better minus the amount of people who say their financial situation is worse.

• 53:53Patrick Bet-David?

  Plus minus. So it's a plus minus chart.

• 53:55Speaker 02

  So what we're saying is many more, a vast majority more people think that they're worse off than a year ago. And if you look at the other charts, it's unemployment, it's income reasons for what we just saw on the other chart. Every single one of these measures coming from Americans, and this cuts across political divides, demographics, this is widespread change. Americans' assessment of the economy, their place in the economy is at lows that we associate with the worst parts of recession.

• 54:19Patrick Bet-David?

  So then I got a question for you. If you go on this here, and if you look at from 2010, 2008, nine, which we know what happened, eight, nine, market crash, right there at the bottom that I'm looking at, massive drop off that's post-Bush. Then you have Obama comes in and it goes up. And if you go to 16, Trump comes in, spikes all the way up. Then you got 2020, 2021, Biden comes in, massive drop off, and it goes all the way down. And Trump comes in 2024, 2020, so 2025, 2026, it drops off. So a part of this, how much of this you put on him? How much of this you put on the other?

• 54:55Speaker 02

  Oh, zero. This is not Trump. This is, this is not, well.

• 54:59Patrick Bet-David?

  So who is this?

• 55:00Speaker 02

  You can argue about, the massive drop off there is actually under the first Trump administration. That's during COVID lockdown.

• 55:06Patrick Bet-David?

  Right.

• 55:07Speaker 02

  So you could, you could make the case that, you know, the lockdowns were the original sin, the CARES Act, the massive explosion of government spending, that's a lot of it too. But this, this transcends politics. This is not partisanship. It's not a Biden economy versus a Trump economy, and Trump fixes the Biden economy. It's just the fact that we made a whole bunch of mistakes.

• 55:23Patrick Bet-David?

  So a president cannot do anything to positively impact this, is what you're saying?

• 55:27Speaker 02

  What I'm saying is it was baked in five years ago. And Trump's mistake is the same mistake the politicians made all throughout the world was saying, this was Biden's economy. I'm going to fix Biden's economy. Remember, Trump came in office and said, I'm going to build the greatest economy in the world. He never should have said that because it's not in his hands to do that. It wasn't as simple as if we replaced Biden with Trump, the economy fixes itself.

• 55:48Patrick Bet-David?

  Whose hands is it in?

• 55:49Speaker 02

  It's whoever decided we should lock everything down and, you know, spend all that money on CARES Act and then the follow-up, follow-up bills where the government expanded itself, you know, exponentially.

• 56:00Patrick Bet-David?

  So more House, more the House of Representatives, Congress?

• 56:04Speaker 02

  I think at that time, you know, the CARES Act was a bipartisan act. I think everybody in 2020 has their hands dirty, whether it be the Trump administration. And then Biden just continued it. We had a rapid, massive expansion in the government in 21 and 22 that never returned. The emergency's over, but government spending is as high as it was back when we were doing the pandemic. So.

• 56:25Patrick Bet-David?

  Can you do me a favor? Go back to the previous chart that he showed, the plus minus, this one right here. So if you look at, I wish that thing was out. Oh, okay, it's gone. So 2008, 2009, we know where that is. Today, I mean, to have those two comparisons together, what's the other one? Oh, three, oh, four? And then you got 91, 92, and then you have 1980. That's Carter, where interest rates were 16%, 17%, 18%.

• 56:51Speaker 02

  You had to double dip in 81 and 82.

• 56:52Patrick Bet-David?

  Is there a correlation you see between all those? Or no? Each of them is a different reasoning?

• 56:56Speaker 02

  Well, they're business cycles. So these are recession cycles. So the reason why confidence starts to go back up is because the business cycle hits its bottom and it starts to go back up.

• 57:06Patrick Bet-David?

  You think we hit the bottom?

• 57:07Speaker 02

  No, that's, that's what we're just talking about. $10, $10 per gallon diesel guarantees we're not at the bottom.

• 57:12Patrick Bet-David?

  Tom?

• 57:13Tom Ellsworth?

  And I'm at eight and the tree falls. What I see here.

• 57:19Patrick Bet-David?

  You're at eight and the tree falls.

• 57:20Tom Ellsworth?

  At $8 diesel, the tree falls. I think the tree is leaning right now.

• 57:24Speaker 02

  And so what Americans are saying is the economy is bad today.

• 57:28Tom Ellsworth?

  His stats he brought up, Americans are not taking short-term vacations to Mexico. And what we're seeing this summer, they're not taking even shorter-term vacations just to drive to Six Flags. We're, we're seeing it.

• 57:41Patrick Bet-David?

  So you're saying Catalina's going to get a lot of business? Catalina Island and?

• 57:44Tom Ellsworth?

  Right. Well, if you go back to this, here's.

• 57:46Patrick Bet-David?

  Catalina Wine Mixer?

• 57:47Tom Ellsworth?

  Here's what I think people need to pay attention to, what you need to pay attention to, is that the prior chart that Jeff showed, that means that right now, two things happened on COVID. We shut down the economy and people were unable to make, you know, money and save, number one. And number two, we printed a bunch of money in the process and inflated the piss out of everything that was there. And then.

• 58:11Speaker 02

  Except labor.

• 58:12Tom Ellsworth?

  Except labor. Except their wages. And so when they went back to work, everything was way up, including houses. We started migration in America. What we had with COVID is, I would argue, has been almost as cataclysmic as 2008. We just didn't see it that way in terms of the net economic change that happened to the facility and situation of the average American consumer. That's my headline.

• 58:38Speaker 02

  They were paying for the mistakes of 2020 and 2026.

• 58:42Tom Ellsworth?

  So it was the big market crash in 08. And I look at print, COVID lockdown, savings. Those three things came together and were as bad as the crash of 08. And then the government kept spending at the same level in terms of the deficit, which was the trailing. I put those four things together. That's why this thing goes from 22 to 26. That's why the consumer's there.

• 59:06Speaker 02

  Well, the thing is that you don't see this. You look at the economic statistics and they look relatively decent, which is why Jay Powell, now Kevin Worsch gets on TV and says the economy's resilient. Because you look at the aggregate statistics, they look okay. But what Americans are saying is, okay, the numbers might look good, but that's not my experience. I experienced something completely different.

• 59:23Tom Ellsworth?

  And their 401Ks or IRAs, if they haven't withdrawn, are okay because of the index-driven market. Okay, fine. But at home, just trying to take care of the increase in price in energy, insurance, I mean, never mind energy, go look at what happened to insurance since 2020. Health insurance, home insurance, you know, car insurance. Go look around.

• 59:44Speaker 02

  But this also explains why Trump did the, first of all, the Trump accounts, right? Because most people don't have access to the stock market. And people who do have access is mostly through their retirement assets, which is not spendable real income. And it's also why he brought up the $5,000 dividend at the midterm convention.

• 59:59Patrick Bet-David?

  That's ridiculous.

• 1:00:00Speaker 02

  Because what he's, they know what's coming. They know that Americans' view of the economy is not good.

• 1:00:04Tom Ellsworth?

  I'm dubious on the second, but I'm with him on the Trump accounts. I think he's saying, okay, guys, let's build savings for everybody born in America, starting now. I don't think that's a bad idea.

• 1:00:14Patrick Bet-David?

  I'm not with the 5,000. Will, thoughts?

• 1:00:19Speaker 05

  Well, right now you have millennials, my, my age, versus baby boomers. At the age of 35, on average, baby boomers owned about 21% of this nation's wealth. Now you have millennials at about the age of 35, on average, own only 3% of the nation's wealth.

• 1:00:34Speaker 02

  Is it that high? It doesn't seem like it.

• 1:00:36Speaker 05

  Yeah, it might be even lower now, you know, this, this stat. But that, that is absolutely insane to me. The, the value that people have in this country who are my age, I mean, we own basically nothing. You will own nothing and be happy, as they, as they tell you, you know? But in, what is it, 2005, the median house, price of a house was?

• 1:00:51Patrick Bet-David?

  You're comparing boomers with millennials?

• 1:00:53Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:00:54Patrick Bet-David?

  What is the average age of a millennial?

• 1:00:55Speaker 05

  This is 30, yeah, this would be about 35.

• 1:00:58Patrick Bet-David?

  I'm actually not surprised with those numbers. I'm not surprised with those numbers. Compound interest is scary.

• 1:01:04Speaker 02

  Yeah, but the problem is.

• 1:01:06Patrick Bet-David?

  Hang on, let me just finish my thought. I'm going to give them a point. Compound interest for me is scary. What happens? Scary. You know, I would watch a guy that would come to the office at 8 o'clock in sales, leave at 10, and he would make 20 calls more than his peer, and he would send cards to all his clients and the other guy wouldn't. In one year, they made the same money. In the second year, the guy would make 10% more income. Third year, 25%. By the fifth year, he's making 200% more income. And it's not even close. And the other guy would say, I can't believe it. He got lucky. I said, no, man, he just would make 20 more calls than you would. And compound interest is truly a real thing. Now, let me go to the other side.

• 1:01:52Patrick Bet-David?

  What I believe, I'm talking about guys that are under 30 years old, is I'd like to see something where we don't tax anybody under the age of 30 for the first $500,000 they make. They keep all of it. No federal income tax, meaning you make 300, it's your money. You make 200, it's your money. You make 100, 100% is your money. You make 600, you pay taxes on $100,000 of it. Why? Because if, if, in, in the business, our guys, I was in an insurance company, that they changed the comp plan to benefit guys that have been around for 20 years, not benefit the newest guy that was getting recruited. And I would always say, if the opportunity is no longer good for the newest person, you no longer have a good business.

• 1:02:34Patrick Bet-David?

  The newest person needs to have the same opportunity to make a lot of money as the guy that was there 5, 10, 15, 20 years ago. We don't have that today. So for me, if we can find a way that somebody's getting into the marketplace, zero taxes upwards of a half a billion, half a million dollars they make, let them keep that money. We need to increase people getting married, having kids, buying a house, and they simply don't have that today. And that's a scary thought. If the incentive doesn't benefit the youth, you have a very, and if they pay a price for boomers saying, no, no, no, no, no, don't give up my benefits. No, no, no, no, no. You know, no politician's gonna run up there and say, hey, we need to raise the retirement age for boomers five more years. Nobody would get elected with that. No one. Not a single soul, even though they may be right.

• 1:03:16Patrick Bet-David?

  Not a single soul would win a campaign if they went there and say, retirement age needs to be increased. Nobody, even right now, if I said this, look how many people are gonna get pissed off at me. I'm telling you, look how many people are gonna be like, oh, you know, screw you. You don't know, you're talking from a place of, you know, you made the money, you did this. I grew up in a family where my mom and dad were poor. My dad worked at a cashier at a 99 cents store in Inglewood, California. You know, yesterday I'm talking to my, my knee, you know, I'm doing physical therapy because of the ACL. My dad is sitting there saying, he reminded of a story about 14 years old, how he's scared he was about me because a guy named Latimer Alhose, who's a great pastor in Torlock, San Jose area, his father was one of my heroes. And when I was 14 years old, troubled teenager, I joined a basketball league

• 1:04:00Patrick Bet-David?

  called the New Century City Basketball Association in Echo Park. We played with Blood, Crib, you know, Diamond, we played with everybody. TBR, Tunaville, you tell them, 18, we played with everybody. All the troubled kids were playing basketball together. And then my dad's telling the story to this guy, Carson, and I'm just listening to him. He says, I remember one day we're at Las Vegas and we're, we took him there and my son didn't come up till 2 o'clock in the morning. I'm in the street, we got into a fight with five guys from New York, guns out, and I'm hanging out with a couple of these guys in a car, Burbank, that I say, the guy's driving a car at 14, 15 years old, his dad's Cadillac. My life's going this way. My life's going this way. And this guy got a hold of me and changed my life. So I know what it is to be poor and it sucks. I know what it is to go through the price.

• 1:04:44Patrick Bet-David?

  I went to the military, I was hoping I would do 20 years because they gave me a pension plan. My plan was I was gonna go do 20 years in the military. I understand that pain. Today, we gotta figure out a way to get the youth to have incentives, to have kids, to get married and to buy a house. And we can't just look the other way and say, look how many billionaires we're producing. They gotta feel it. But at the same time, we have to find a way to say, look, everybody's gotta pull down a little red wagon. You know, there's gotta be something that everybody's gotta give up here as we're going through this next phase. And, and spending needs to kind of lower a little bit. Spending, the amount of things that we're spending money on right now, it's getting a little bit out of control. Why did you then I'll come to Jeff?

• 1:05:22Speaker 07

  Now, more than ever, we need someone on our side. But Rob Whitman? Whitman's votes drove up costs, cut Medicaid, and risked 350,000 Virginians' healthcare to pay for tax breaks for himself and his donors. He's not on our side. Shannon Taylor will fight corruption, cut taxes, and bring down costs. This November, vote for Shannon Taylor. She's for us. Paid for by HMP, the HouseMajorityPac.com. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee.

• 1:05:53Speaker 08

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• 1:07:17Speaker 05

  I mean, you can definitely, I mean, before 1912, there was no federal income tax. I mean, I'm totally for, for all of that.

• 1:07:22Patrick Bet-David?

  But the amount of expenditure we got right now, the amount of how big the government's ballooned into to cut the whole thing, they tried Doge, but look what happened. The richest man in the world got fired.

• 1:07:31Speaker 05

  Yeah, exactly. You know, but the

• 1:07:33Adam Sosnick?

  In a blaze of glory, by the way.

• 1:07:35Speaker 05

  The compound interest.

• 1:07:36Adam Sosnick?

  When him and Trump got into it.

• 1:07:38Speaker 05

  Yeah, the compound interest, I mean, I dropped out of college to move to Los Angeles to go and work for PragerU. This was in 2017.

• 1:07:44Adam Sosnick?

  You crushed it, by the way.

• 1:07:45Speaker 05

  Thank you, thank you. And there, there weren't conservative influencers or conservative people like that, you know? It was a completely new thing and I saw what was going on in the world and I said, man, I'm gonna work really hard. I lived in a horrible bachelor apartment in Hollywood, California, where I'd wake up with cockroaches crawling on my face at 4:00 AM, you know, eating Ritz crackers and turkey with no kitchen, you know? And so I get that, working hard and putting in that, and, and you can, of course, make something of yourself. This is America. But there is no doubt that there aren't more hurdles today for young people than any other time, I think, in American history. I mean, just looking at minimum wage laws, I mean, minimum wage laws are something that keep people out of actually, you know, making money in the future, you know? It's not letting businesses decide how much they're going to actually pay people,

• 1:08:27Speaker 05

  making it especially hard for black Americans to get low-entry jobs to then move up in the world. All these different hurdles that are making it very difficult.

• 1:08:35Patrick Bet-David?

  Give me more hurdles. What, what else is it? Hurdles for the youth?

• 1:08:38Speaker 05

  Yeah, well, one thing, you know, you have

• 1:08:39Patrick Bet-David?

  The hardest it's ever been.

• 1:08:39Speaker 05

  Yeah, I mean, one thing, we're talking about housing, right? And one of the reasons why housing has gone so expensive, you know, it's not the only reason, but you have these big hedge funds coming in and buying up single-family homes in this, in this country. Right? And if you're doing that, then you're making it so, I mean, how much, it's obviously going to inflate the price of the house.

• 1:08:54Patrick Bet-David?

  They changed a few months back that they can't do that anymore and, you know, to kind of prevent them from pushing the way, because they're raising the price of where everybody's sitting there saying, I'm just gonna be renting. There's even a story in here about just renting. What else would you say outside of that?

• 1:09:06Speaker 05

  Well, the biggest one has gotta be illegal immigration. If you have two houses that are built and someone cuts in line and comes and gets government benefits and says, well, I need a house too, of course that's going to push the supply up. So, illegal immigration, the, the hedge funds, the, the not really good jobs for young people that are making them passionate and creative people, you know? They're just replaceable people and, and stupid email jobs all day in some big techie city. I think the biggest problem is young men, especially right now, don't feel like they have a lot of purpose or meaning in their lives. And if you take that away from a civilization, the entire thing crashes. You know, even if, you know, we have all this kind of like high-level economic stuff and things like that, but really, it's gonna come down to the young men finding something of value to do in their lives. Otherwise, what do you do with all of them?

• 1:09:51Patrick Bet-David?

  Jeff?

• 1:09:51Speaker 02

  It's the opportunity. You guys don't have the opportunity. Compound interest, you're exactly right. And the, the issue here is that millennials and Gen Z, two generations now, have never had the opportunity to do what you're talking, it's not a case of they're not working hard enough. That's not it at all. And so I brought some more charts because I've got charts for everything.

• 1:10:07Speaker 05

  There is some of that, I will say.

• 1:10:09Speaker 02

  Maybe.

• 1:10:10Speaker 05

  The not working hard. Like, I'll talk to people and they'll be like, man, this guy came in, he thought he could just work from home every day and, and not show up.

• 1:10:16Speaker 02

  And so there is, there are people my age who did the same thing. The boomers complained about Generation X, it's, it's, it's old is human nature, right? You know, the kids are always bad, right? But this is a macroeconomic thing and it goes back to 2008. If you look at the chart here, which shows you income, income fell off trend in 2008 and never went back. To the point that we're now 5 trillion behind that trend. That's $5 trillion in real price-adjusted income that never happened. That's income, you know, baby boomers got their, got their, their jobs, their incomes, their retirement savings, their houses, they got, they got all that stuff. After 2008, things were different. People your generation, they're in the bottom part of the K because there isn't jobs and income.

• 1:10:58Speaker 02

  So you don't have the chance. You don't have a chance to build your career in the same way. You don't have a chance to buy a house at age 28, 29, or 30 and build your equity, because everything comes with equity. People who have, who have entered the economy after 2008 have experienced a very, very different life than people from before 2008. And the numbers show this. The problem is nobody knows this because all we've heard from, since 2008 is that everything's just fine.

• 1:11:26Speaker 05

  We also have to go into the college question because the price of college in this country has gone way past the, the point of inflation for how much college.

• 1:11:33Speaker 02

  And then there's that, right?

• 1:11:35Speaker 05

  And then you can't, what do you get out of it? You also can't file bankruptcy on a student loan from the government.

• 1:11:39Patrick Bet-David?

  Tom?

• 1:11:39Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, and if you take a careful look right here, great chart, Jeff. Let's see if we could look at the slope of the line from the spike down in 2020, the COVID. If you draw a new line on that path, it's even flatter than the 2.9%.

• 1:11:53Speaker 05

  Worse than that, it's actually rolling over.

• 1:11:54Tom Ellsworth?

  It's correct. It's not 2.2%. It is flat. It is dead flat. So now you go from 3.1 compounded, 2.9, but if you look careful after COVID and you adjust it, it's almost flat. So, you know, this is, this is the reality. And that's why I call it, you know, after COVID, I say it was as bad as 2008, but we didn't see it that way because COVID was over, we took off the mask, we went back outside, we were working again, and the market was up, that, which was protecting 401Ks and IRAs. It was, it is, it continues to, but it's flat.

• 1:12:30Speaker 02

  And so that explains why Americans think that this is as bad as every recession because the data shows that's actually the case. And the, the stock market has made it worse. And that's where a lot of the, you know, the frenzy over socialism comes from because the stock market's at all-time highs, are very near all-time highs. Yet, most Americans experience this economy. So you think, okay, if this is, if this is a booming economy where the stock market's at record highs, I'm, I'm opting out. I need something different. I need something that actually works for me.

• 1:12:58Adam Sosnick?

  Look, I might be the dissenter on this one. I think this is the greatest country in the world. I think we have the greatest economy in the world. I think when we talk about like, what's the famous Churchill quote? Democracy is the worst form of government, except for everything else has been tried. Pick a country in the world you would move to with all your complaints about America. Go ahead.

• 1:13:17Speaker 02

  Well, this is not a-

• 1:13:17Adam Sosnick?

  Everyone wants to complain, well, inflation's a little high, the cost of housing. I get it. I'm in the same country as you guys, paying the same prices.

• 1:13:25Speaker 02

  But guess what?

• 1:13:25Adam Sosnick?

  But I, hear me out. But I, I think at the end of the day, it's like, where else are you going? Like, you're not going to trade all your issues for America, whatever it is, for any place in the world. So, listen, I believe in personal responsibility. I believe in personal finance. What I had to do, just like PBD, I was a South Beach nightlife party boy that knew everybody and was having a great time in my life, but I was broke as hell. So I had to go, basically, move out of Miami, move into a house with five of my buddies. I paid nothing in rent, the cockroach story, the ramen noodle story. And my first year in business, I made $5,000. I stuck it out, I was making a million cold calls a month. Next year, I made $100,000, then the economy busted in 2008. And you know what?

• 1:14:10Adam Sosnick?

  I had to figure it out. The bottom line for me was, was this one major thing. You can't save your way to becoming a millionaire. You have to own assets. So at some point, you're going to basically have the tipping point where you're going to say, alright, what, you know, what's, what did, uh-

• 1:14:24Patrick Bet-David?

  You pointed at me, Tom. What's up?

• 1:14:26Speaker 02

  Yeah, well, I was waiting for him to finish.

• 1:14:27Adam Sosnick?

  Okay.

• 1:14:28Patrick Bet-David?

  Oh, I thought you were pointing at me because of a text. Go ahead.

• 1:14:30Adam Sosnick?

  No, sorry.

• 1:14:30Speaker 02

  No, no, no.

• 1:14:31Adam Sosnick?

  So, to me, and this is a weird analogy, but I, I've been watching a lot of Thomas Sowell lately, the great Thomas Sowell. He said, there's no solutions for anything. There's only trade-offs. So what's the trade-off? Okay, so maybe you're not going to get your own apartment, buddy. Maybe you're not going to buy a house, buddy. Maybe you're going to have to get a roommate. Cool. Maybe you're not going to drive a BMW. You're going to drive a Kia. All good. Maybe you're not going to Taco Tuesday every Tuesday, and you're going to eat at home. It's all good. You're still living in America. And, and, and, and I'm so sorry that we're going to have a moment of silence for, for Jay-Z and Beyonce and Taylor Swift and Oprah, that they're not in the Forbes 500, but they still own assets and they're still billionaires.

• 1:15:12Adam Sosnick?

  And you can be a millionaire too, if you just work, work hard, work, earn, save and invest.

• 1:15:20Speaker 02

  Adam, I see where you're coming from, but some of that argument is why people get so pissed off at, at, at the generation above them. Well, I think what Pat said-

• 1:15:27Adam Sosnick?

  What do you mean?

• 1:15:27Speaker 02

  I agree with you. Hang on, I agree with you. I agree with you, it's the greatest country. I agree that there's a great economy. But the reason Pat brought up his point about, hey, under the age of 30, we won't tax you up to 500. I want to help people with a ramp. And, you know, Jeff talks about, we need wage growth. I talk about wage growth as well. We agree, you know, dramatically on that point. And one of the ways you can give people wage growth is you can give them spending growth, the, the ability to spend, not on credit, not on credit cards, which are at 1.4 trillion right now, and you've got BNPL that's strangling people because they decided to use that. What he's talking about is let's, in this economy, in this situation, what if we help these people under 30 to get a ramp up on to it?

• 1:16:12Adam Sosnick?

  Oh, but by the way, not to cut you off, I think it's a great idea, but how soon is that idea going to be implemented? A year, five years, 10 years, 20 years? Let's live in reality today, though.

• 1:16:22Speaker 02

  Wait a minute. It's like, okay, Edison, you're going to invent the light bulb, but how long is it going to take? You have to start someplace.

• 1:16:26Adam Sosnick?

  I agree, but that's not going to help somebody pay the rent today.

• 1:16:28Speaker 02

  Somebody stepping up with an idea that says, I've got an idea, we've got a problem, why don't we get together?

• 1:16:32Adam Sosnick?

  I, I love the idea. I'm not, I, I, I fully support the idea, even when you brought it up to Ben Shapiro, he loved the idea. That's not going to pay your rent today. So what can be done today?

• 1:16:42Speaker 05

  Well, you're talking about Thomas Sowell, and one of the great stats that he had, which might not be as relevant before or after COVID, was that 25, or you have like 25 people, percent of people in the bottom quarter of economics, by the end of their life, 75% of those people will have been in the top quarter of the economics in this country at some point in their life.

• 1:17:02Adam Sosnick?

  Economic mobility.

• 1:17:03Speaker 05

  Exactly.

• 1:17:03Adam Sosnick?

  Yeah, that's why they say the middle class is shrinking. It's like, well, if you actually look deeper, it's because a lot of the middle class entered the upper class because of compound interest. Right?

• 1:17:13Speaker 02

  But if you don't have the opportunity to get a compound interest, you're stuck in the bottom.

• 1:17:17Patrick Bet-David?

  Oh, Jeff, Jeff, I'm sorry, though. So, go ahead. What's your solution? You just, you just sold massive crisis. If I'm a 22-year-old watching this, I'm depressed right now. But no, I'm, wait a minute, no, but I should be.

• 1:17:29Adam Sosnick?

  You should not be.

• 1:17:30Patrick Bet-David?

  No, you, would you tell your son that? I'm sorry, I'm not wired that way. I don't speak that language. I don't relate to that language. So here's my question for you. If you're telling me that it's the shittiest time to be in, give me ideas. Go ahead, what can I do?

• 1:17:43Speaker 02

  First of all, I want to address one thing first, is that this is not-

• 1:17:46Adam Sosnick?

  No, no, no, sir, you address his question first. You're not putting me first.

• 1:17:49Speaker 02

  This is not a US-only problem. In fact, the same chart can be found everywhere else around the world.

• 1:17:54Adam Sosnick?

  Yeah, but we care about the United States.

• 1:17:55Speaker 02

  I, but what I'm saying is that this is not strictly a US problem.

• 1:17:58Patrick Bet-David?

  What I want to know from you is-

• 1:17:59Speaker 02

  Yeah, how do we fix this?

• 1:18:00Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, give me that, because anytime I hear people that are just saying, selling crisis, crisis, it's like, when you work in a company and you got employees, that's not working. This is not working. That is, okay, great. Give me this, I think we should change our benefits and do this. Okay, fantastic, let's have the conversation. So walk me through your ideas. If you had influence, what would you do?

• 1:18:20Speaker 02

  All right, go back to that. Can you pull up the chart again?

• 1:18:22Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, let's go to it. Which one?

• 1:18:23Speaker 02

  The, that one right there.

• 1:18:25Patrick Bet-David?

  4.9, go for it.

• 1:18:26Speaker 02

  It's circled. What, what, what happened in 2008? Because that's where you see the-

• 1:18:30Patrick Bet-David?

  Quantitative easing.

• 1:18:31Speaker 02

  What happened to cause that?

• 1:18:33Patrick Bet-David?

  The 2008.

• 1:18:34Speaker 02

  What was the 2008 crisis?

• 1:18:36Patrick Bet-David?

  Heavy borrowing.

• 1:18:37Speaker 02

  Because look at what, what, what this chart is telling you.

• 1:18:40Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 1:18:40Speaker 02

  Something broke in 2008.

• 1:18:42Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay.

• 1:18:43Speaker 02

  Now, the reason the socialists are winning is because they say the same thing. They say something broke in 2008, and it was free market capitalism.

• 1:18:49Patrick Bet-David?

  Sure.

• 1:18:49Speaker 02

  So we're going to replace it with socialism. They're correct about the one part, obviously way wrong about the other part. What broke in 2008 to the point that the entire global economy changed, the entire nature of the global economy changed after 2008? This is the problem. Nobody knows what happened in 2008. What broke in 2008 was the entire global monetary system. It's the same thing that happened in the 1930s. Why was the Great Depression a Great Depression? Because the monetary system that existed before 1929 broke down permanently. In fact, this is the reason why Ben Bernanke was famous. He said, look, after, after 1929, 1930, the banking system got broken, it never recovered, we never had a recovery. Same exact thing happened here. In 2008, the monetary system that we had, the Eurodollar system, why I call it Eurodollar

• 1:19:34Speaker 02

  University, broke. And it didn't break on a temporary basis. It broke in a way that was permanent. Quantitative easing didn't fix it. The Federal Reserve's zero-interest rate policy didn't fix it. It was a permanent rupture in the global monetary system, which is why you see this chart everywhere around the world. So the answer is to unbreak what happened in 2008, which argues for rejiggering the monetary system so that it actually functions in the way that we need it to. So that's the solution. The problem is getting people to that solution.

• 1:20:03Adam Sosnick?

  I'm so sorry to interrupt.

• 1:20:05Patrick Bet-David?

  Wait a minute. Okay, so how do you fix it?

• 1:20:09Speaker 02

  How do you fix it?

• 1:20:10Patrick Bet-David?

  There are certain things you can't unfix, right?

• 1:20:12Speaker 02

  Exactly.

• 1:20:12Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, so, so now, if that's-

• 1:20:14Speaker 02

  But you're not going to like the answer.

• 1:20:15Patrick Bet-David?

  But, but, but I actually want to know what you're going to say, because the only thing I care about is, well, I'll tell you what, what I care about. I want to know how you fix it. I want to hear what you're going to say.

• 1:20:24Speaker 02

  How we fix it is we allow things like cryptocurrencies and digital currencies to develop new systems. The problem is, we go, global economic history goes through these periods of cycles.

• 1:20:34Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay.

• 1:20:35Speaker 02

  So before the 1930s, we had a period of, 30-year period of tremendous prosperity. People call it the roaring 20s, but it's actually the, the zeros, the 10s and the 20s. And then what happened is the monetary system, human nature takes over, we get greedy, we do things we shouldn't do, the monetary system breaks down.

• 1:20:50Patrick Bet-David?

  We've done that before, for history, always.

• 1:20:52Speaker 02

  Yep. Human nature is undefeated.

• 1:20:54Patrick Bet-David?

  Yep.

• 1:20:55Speaker 02

  So the monetary system broke down, and what happened afterward? We went through a two-decade, two, 25-year period where things sucked for a very long time. There's nothing you can do about it. You have to sit there and grit your teeth and bear it until bottom-up processes take, have time to develop-

• 1:21:12Patrick Bet-David?

  Yep.

• 1:21:12Speaker 02

  That fix the problem and we get out of it. So we go through these long-period cycles. So we're in a long-period cycle where we, we screwed everything up in the 90s and 2000s. We went way too far.

• 1:21:21Patrick Bet-David?

  We haven't tried to fix it yet, so-

• 1:21:22Speaker 02

  I have, it's-

• 1:21:22Patrick Bet-David?

  What do you do? What, what, what part of crypto technology? Go ahead.

• 1:21:25Speaker 02

  Monetary system needs to be replaced, but it can't be done overnight by flipping a switch. You have to, you have to give it time enough to become-

• 1:21:32Patrick Bet-David?

  And to replace the monetary system, how many people need to make a decision for that to happen?

• 1:21:37Speaker 02

  Nobody. It's, it's a bottom-up process. It's decentralized. The monetary system-

• 1:21:41Patrick Bet-David?

  A part of that is happening, and a part of that is happening.

• 1:21:43Speaker 02

  It is.

• 1:21:43Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay.

• 1:21:44Speaker 02

  So the, if you want to put a positive spin on this, Pat, the positive spin is we're 20 some, we're almost 20 years into the downside of the cycle, which means we're 20 years closer to the upside.

• 1:21:53Patrick Bet-David?

  So you know, you know where I'm at with this, where, and look, whether, the people that will like this and relate to this, awesome, I can't wait to meet you. The people that won't like this, listen, I also respect, you have your own opinion, and I'm not comfortable, uncomfortable with people agreeing or disagreeing with me. It's very comfortable in our environment. Let me go through a couple of things I wrote here, okay?

• 1:22:17Patrick Bet-David?

  Number one, people are driven by incentives on what's gonna happen to their lives. I trust people gonna make the right decisions to have their incentives for their lives, whatever that may be, okay? Number two, people that have assets, how hard will they work to protect what they have? We know people will work harder to protect the twenty dollars that they have than to go make another twenty dollars. A guy stole twenty dollars from them, they'll run ten miles to get that twenty dollars back from the guy, but they won't go put additional ten dollars, ten hours in a week to make an additional four hundred dollars or three hundred dollars. But they're gonna protect what they have, okay? So people gonna make the decisions to say, what I currently have right now, I'm gonna protect. Number three, dream. Everybody has dreams, everybody has dreams and they wanna pursue. Some are gonna give up on the dreams, some are not gonna give up on the dreams.

• 1:23:02Patrick Bet-David?

  Whoever you listen to will either destroy your dreams or is gonna get somebody, say I'm gonna continue it. I've gone to churches where the main thing the pastor wanted to talk about is the end of times is here. The end of times is here, the end of times is here. You're going to hell, the end of times is here, the end of times is here. I got it, I understand. I've read Revelation, the end of times, no, no, but it's right now, it's, you see, it's reminding of what happened in the city of Corinth and what, watch what happened in Las Vegas and OnlyFans and Sophie Rain and all. I got it, I understand, Tinder, totally get it, alright. So what do I do if it's the end of times is here? Do I just go to that pastor and say, that's why I don't work that hard, I'm just gonna sit around and not do anything because the end of times is here? The end of times is here.

• 1:23:46Patrick Bet-David?

  That message doesn't create urgency and a way of going out there and fixing things, I'm sorry, I don't relate to that. And I've been in a lot of these meetings. I was in a meeting one time where a man named Monty Home told me, Mormon man, very successful financially, phenomenal guy, good family guy, he says, Patrick, don't go into the, I just got promoted to a position of CEO, he says, I don't want you to go into this meeting. He said, why do you not want me to go into this meeting? He says, Pat, I want you to host the meeting. I brought up, um, who was the guy, Chris Gardner from, what was the movie, Pursuit of Happiness? I brought Mary Lou Retton up, she's like right here and I look like it's my daughter, but it's like it's Mary Lou Retton. And then after hosting this meeting, Cal Ripken Jr. was speaking and about, you know, consistency and not giving up. And then I'm going into the CEO session, this is Patrick, I'm telling you, he writes me a letter, don't go into this meeting.

• 1:24:31Patrick Bet-David?

  So the more he says, don't go into this meeting, guess what I wanna do?

• 1:24:34Adam Sosnick?

  Go to the meeting.

• 1:24:35Patrick Bet-David?

  There's fifty-six people, something like that in the meeting. I said, can you just tell me why you don't want me to go into this meeting? He says, Pat, you're on fire. Your attitude is so positive, you're gonna have big things that's happening to you. These people, ninety percent of them, all they do is bitch and complain how hard the business is today. Don't go into this meeting. What do I do? I go into this meeting. And guess what I sit there and hear? All the men I respected and admired, guess what they did for three straight hours?

• 1:25:03Speaker 07

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• 1:27:00Adam Sosnick?

  Bitch and complain?

• 1:27:01Patrick Bet-David?

  These are people that have been in the insurance business for twenty-five, thirty years, twenty years, and I've only been in the business for five years. All they're doing is bitching and whining because two thousand and eight is the worst time to sell insurance, is the worst time to be in the stock market. Do you know my business? My business, oblivious PBD, who doesn't have an MBA and all these other guys are the brilliant guys. From two thousand and two till the day I sold the business, we never had a down year, ever. Every year we grew, what do you want me to tell you? What do we go through from oh-two to two thousand and one, do we sell the business, Tom? Two thousand twenty-two, we sold the business. We went through COVID, we went through oh-eight market crash, we went through bullshit, bullshit. Every fricking, you know our numbers, we grew every year.

• 1:27:43Patrick Bet-David?

  And I'm not a brain scientist, you know, schooled, no, we just grew. But Monty had a very good point. When he said, if you go in a meeting like this and you're around other people who are no longer excited about the future, they're gonna rub off on you and you have to fight it off. Whether you know, and I went in and I came, I said, Monty, I understand your, your point already, what you were saying. I fully got it. I'm not those guys, I don't relate to those guys. So for me, whether you agree with what I'm saying or not and all this other stuff and you wanna be a pastor that says the end of the world is coming, great, don't go do anything about your life, just sit home and go collect coupons and, what do you call it, clipping coupons and take your cash that you got from the government and find a way to get a regular job and don't give your best. Don't read any business books, don't go pick up any new material.

• 1:28:27Patrick Bet-David?

  But this guy didn't become successful because he sits around and works his ass off. I think one thing we have to do as individuals and leaders in a time like this is we can openly talk about the shit that is hitting the fan. We can't criticize the president, and I do. Five thousand dollars to win a vote, horrible idea, horrible idea to win the votes. Affordability is not a real thing, it's a hoax, it's a real thing, they're going through it. Yo, this is, it's not, AI, oh, it's, don't know, it's not AI, then let's not. No, we should look into it and see and get these guys to come in and educate us. We don't have all the answers. You can be a billionaire and still know nothing about a different industry. I can be a forty-seven-year-old successful financial guy and I wanna listen to Will because I wanna know what thirty-year-olds are thinking about right now, I really do, I wanna know what he's going through.

• 1:29:08Patrick Bet-David?

  I wanna learn from him, I can learn from a nine-year-old kid that's been playing the piano for five years, he can teach me piano, I don't know nothing about piano and how to play it, I just, I like to listen to it. So I think that's the mistake and the blind spot that we have in the White House right now where we're kinda like, you know, when you have success, you kinda feel like you are, you know, everything is gonna, you have to listen to everybody, but at the same time, if there's one thing I flipping respect about this guy that's working at the White House is the level of optimism he has, whether he's right or wrong. Everybody can learn from that. The guy's eighty years old, working harder than anybody else, answering questions twenty-four-seven to people that are bitching and whining at him and he takes all the calls. I'm trying to get ahold of the president to give an idea to him on how to help out with affordability.

• 1:29:53Patrick Bet-David?

  You know how quickly she got back to me? She said, the president scheduled a call with you, can you get in a call with us? I got a call scheduled right after the same, hey, we gotta do something with affordability, I'm trying to impose my ideas. Whether they do or not, I don't know, but, but I, I don't, I don't relate to this, you know, and here's what went wrong and here's what, yeah, okay, then what? Then what? What can I do to fix it? Give me that, if I lose ninety percent the audience because you don't relate to this message, I'll do this show by myself and listen to my own self. I'm not changing this message. And I don't think Americans, we need to go subscribe to the fear porn non-stop, have the difference. I wanna know why Thomas Massey wants to get Hexit to resign, why? Give me the motive, what's your motive? I wanna know why Speaker Johnson wants to shut down. Let's learn and talk to each other, why do you wanna do this stuff?

• 1:30:37Patrick Bet-David?

  But if we lose the optimism and we lose that enthusiasm and we lose the fact that we believe this the greatest country in the world, holy shit, horrible times are around the corner. Holy shit, I'm not, I'm not, I'm not gonna do that. I'm not gonna do that, I'm not gonna subscribe to that camp. And I think we need to a little bit go back to the, here's the five things that is going on that I fully disagree with that's shitty, but these are my three solutions. Here's what's a horrible thing in, in our brains collectively. You're brilliant, you're brilliant, you're brilliant, we're sitting here with, I'll skip on Adam, but I'm just saying like, Pass over me. But what I'm saying, you know? You say I'm cool, baby. I think I'm a regular guy that's just curious. Hey, listen, at one point, I had GPA, man. Just so you know, I don't even put myself in a brilliant category, I put myself in a category of I'm curious,

• 1:31:22Patrick Bet-David?

  I wanna learn, I wanna talk to everybody and see what can we do to make this thing the greatest country in the world? Yeah. Period. I think that's kinda what we need to go to. You know, you see churches that congregations decline and all they do is bitch and whine. And then you see churches that are growing, pastors saying, hey, no matter what happens, you're gonna see your father, you're gonna see your late mom, you're gonna see your family, we got a place that's waiting for us. I think a little bit, we are a little bit subscribing too much to fear porn. And listen, I'm sorry about the rant I went on right now, but I think we need a little bit of that in our house so when we go to dinner with the kids and the wife and the family.

• 1:31:55Speaker 02

  I just wanna salute the rant, Pat.

• 1:31:56Patrick Bet-David?

  I think it's a little too much, it's a little too much, so.

• 1:31:58Speaker 02

  This, this discussion isn't about giving up, this discussion is about being honest.

• 1:32:02Patrick Bet-David?

  Thank you, I don't mind being honest.

• 1:32:04Speaker 02

  No, the honest discussion is when Will says, it sucks. Not to look at him and say, you're just a lazy piece of shit.

• 1:32:10Patrick Bet-David?

  No one's saying that, though.

• 1:32:11Speaker 02

  They are.

• 1:32:12Patrick Bet-David?

  No.

• 1:32:12Speaker 02

  Yes, lots of people are.

• 1:32:14Patrick Bet-David?

  But I don't, but I don't.

• 1:32:14Speaker 02

  You don't work hard, no, you don't work hard.

• 1:32:16Patrick Bet-David?

  By the way, Jeff, I will tell you, part of them are also right.

• 1:32:20Speaker 02

  Sure.

• 1:32:20Patrick Bet-David?

  So he even said it, he says, there are people that are also right. So this thing to be like, we're a hundred percent right on everything, we're oblivious if we think that. When, when my, you know, when my kids like, I have a credit score for people who complain. You know what my credit scores with people that complain? Here's how it works. Tom has a high credit score. If Tom complains, I'm listening of something that's going on in the company. My wife, she's not a complainer. But if she tells me something's going on in the family, guess what? I'm listening. Melba, my nanny, if she comes and says, hey daddy, I don't want to say this, but this person disrespects me a lot and I don't want to start a fight. I just think they look at me as a nanny. And I think I'm more than a nanny to you. I've been with you for 20 years. I said, who's talked to you like that?

• 1:33:05Patrick Bet-David?

  This, she never, I'll go talk to that person and confront and say, I said, listen, if you talk to her again like she works for you, you're gonna have a problem with me. This is not just a nanny to us. This is a blood to me and what she's been with me for 20 years. So I watch who's complaining and I watch who's, and to be honest with you, there are people that are just complainers. But then there are people like him, he's working, he's doing his thing. I want to listen. I want to know what he has to say. But we have to know, there is also both sides of the extreme side of the story that we got to give a little bit credibility. All I'm saying is this, if I got a brain like Jeff Snyder, I want to see the solutions you're suggesting. That's what I want to hear. I want to use a guy like your brain to come back and say, Pat, last time, remember when you said this? Let me tell you what five solutions I got. I'm looking forward to that podcast. I want to hear that.

• 1:33:50Patrick Bet-David?

  I think all of us needs to be challenged a little bit to think that way. This may not be a popular thing, but I think this mindset was popular 2,000 years ago. I think this mindset was popular 1,000 years ago, and I think it's popular today. And the only difference is there's more noise today than ever before because we all have podcasts, we all have a show and we all are talking and we all are tweeting and we all are saying stuff and oh my God, let me see what that person said. I'll give you the final thoughts and we'll go to the next story.

• 1:34:14Speaker 05

  I mean, you can work hard and make something of yourself. Of course, that's there. But there are also more hurdles at the same time. So it feels like, you know, kind of everyone's right. When I had my business, it was called Pure Basics Collective. It was a kind of like Amazon or Etsy, but for super healthy products. You know, I became a certified health coach and I was reviewing all this stuff. You know, think of like raw milk and tallow on the face, all that stuff. And so we'd bring in these people who are small businesses. They would all sell it on the site. And like one of the things that we had to do, you know, the site is, we're no longer active, unfortunately, but like one thing, just an example, like when you're doing your website, you have to make it ADA compliant, right? If you don't have your site ADA compliant, then you know, Shark Lawyers will come in and check out people's sites and then, you know, do cases against you and all this stuff. And it's like, why do I have to do that? Why do I have to make my site ADA compliant?

• 1:34:56Patrick Bet-David?

  But by the way, like, but I don't even, I want to challenge you on that, buddy. I mean, I went into, it started an insurance company right after 2008, where compliance regulation was freaking skyrocketing.

• 1:35:07Speaker 05

  No, I'm not saying it's not possible.

• 1:35:08Patrick Bet-David?

  No, all I'm trying to say to you, if I'm playing a role of a uncle or a father figure, an older brother to you, I don't even want my son to talk that way. My son, he, one week, all the kids in the house were sick before the vault. He was a starting lineup on the team. Then the next week, he's at the vault for one week, so he doesn't go to practice. Next week at a game, he gets a knee injury. The coach pulled him, he only played two quarters instead of the four. They're doing quarters right now in soccer. It used to be two halves, but it's, he's playing 11 v 11. Well, you know what? It's not fair, I'm not playing. No, I would take you out if I was your coach. This is hard. And, and, but as hard as it is, Will, you think you would have been famous 20 years ago? As famous as you are right now? You think the world's gonna know who I am 20 years ago? Who the hell am I 20 years ago?

• 1:35:52Patrick Bet-David?

  I'm just an insurance guy. Look who we are right now. We got right now in a room, just so you know, 16,000 people are sitting in the bathroom stall or their car or their work, acting like they're working. And they're listening to us, agreeing, disagreeing with us. 20 years ago, nobody has a clue who I am. So what would I do 20 years ago? I gotta get a WME agent. Who the hell is getting a WME agent with this guy? CIA? Who, what am I doing? I'm working at Fox? I'm working at CNN? Who signs this guy? I gotta go to Columbia, whatever the university is, or go to Brown or one of these bullshit, what are the big journalist schools out there? I gotta go to those schools for me to barely get a job and go kiss everybody's ass to make my way up to getting a job at Fox or CNN or CBS. You kidding me?

• 1:36:36Patrick Bet-David?

  The world now knows who Will Witt is. We are living in a ridiculous time. And if I have to exchange the regulation, go back 100 years ago, 100 years ago, AC, TV, radio, this is the greatest time ever. But we have challenges.

• 1:36:55Speaker 05

  Yeah, that's what I'm saying. I'm agreeing with you.

• 1:36:57Patrick Bet-David?

  That's okay. But all I'm saying is the regulation stuff, every industry's got regulation stuff they're dealing with. Trust me, it's not in every industry.

• 1:37:04Speaker 05

  Right.

• 1:37:04Patrick Bet-David?

  We got to find a way to rise above it. Leaders, we need to be leaders and we need to rise above it. And this message, trust me, I didn't make any new friends today. I'm telling you, I didn't make any new friends today. People are pissed off at me saying, you don't understand what people are going through.

• 1:37:17Speaker 05

  I feel like we're good friends now.

• 1:37:18Patrick Bet-David?

  Oh, no. I, I, Jeff, but, but my challenge to you, Jeff, is you have a brain that needs to be used to come up with solutions and share that with us. Every time you come here, I look forward to hearing from you because I really respect the brain of yours. But I want you to think about bigger solutions. I want you to think about if you're in the room and the president's listening to you, what would you advise him to do? That's the challenge, that's all it is. It's nothing more, nothing less.

• 1:37:42Speaker 05

  That's why you're here, because the world needs people like you.

• 1:37:45Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, and I appreciate that.

• 1:37:46Speaker 05

  People need to whip people and say, hey, you know, stop being, stop being so negative.

• 1:37:50Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, every once in a while, we gotta go through, okay, let's go to the next story. Let's talk about Vivek is going against Amy Acton in, in what do you call it? Ohio. Can we look at the calcio Vivek and Amy Acton, please? Uh, nobody thought Ohio, a, a, and Amy Acton was gonna get ahead of Vivek. If you go back to February 2025, go to February 2025, all the way back. Look at this. Uh, you got 83 and a half to 16 and a half, okay? Then we go to today, go to the flip side of today, is Amy is now 54, nine against 45, one. If you're somebody that's watching the same, man, I think Vivek's got a shot. You may want to go on calcio and create an account and go that side.

• 1:38:33Patrick Bet-David?

  But the market right now is saying Amy Acton is gonna be beating Vivek. Tom, how did this happen? Vivek was a superstar everywhere. How did this happen? Was it just that tweet or is it more than the tweet?

• 1:38:46Tom Ellsworth?

  It, it was more than the tweet, but the tweet started a waterfall effect. Ohio is in the middle of America. The middle of America doesn't want to hear that the middle of America has, you know, perceptive problems that he was talking about. And they certainly don't want to hear in the middle of America that a guy that sounds like an elitist engineer who's already sold this company, oh yeah, nice to be you. They don't want to hear that. And so it was how he responded to it and the little comments that he's been making along the way. And then they're in the middle of America and they're facing this. And they're facing the economy and the affordability crisis, Pat. So those two things came together.

• 1:39:28Tom Ellsworth?

  Vivek did it to himself a little bit and God bless you Vivek. You know, it says, I love you, but you, after that comment, you didn't kind of rally with it. And then also the wave of affordability crisis came that. And those are the two things that are hitting him hard. And now you've got this woman coming from, you know, the, the angry white middle aged.

• 1:39:50Speaker 05

  Crazy town.

• 1:39:51Tom Ellsworth?

  Crazy town Democrat woman and it's, she is, the, the air has been sucked out of the room and she's coming in with it. Those two things came together. It's not any more complicated than that. And so they don't see Vivek as understanding them. He lost that momentum. The economy moved, affordability moved, and she moved into the, into the gap. And that's exactly what we've got going on here. He needs to be out there talking about all the things that we could be doing. He could be doing, hey, let's lower the restrictions on housing so we could build houses. If we have more house, the price of each house will go down a little bit. We'll have supply. We need to, we have, let's, let's take what Patrick was talking about taxes. Let's do that. Let's drill, baby drill and have more oil and energy here

• 1:40:35Tom Ellsworth?

  so that we are not just an exporter of natural gas to Europe. We could have more here and we could build jobs on this. Those are three so simple things, taxes, housing and energy. And he could be talking about those in Ohio in the middle of the US. But I think he lost the narrative, Pat. And he didn't come back and say, you know what? American exceptionalism is what I believe in. I've taken advantage of it. I've been part of it.

• 1:40:59Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 1:40:59Tom Ellsworth?

  But we gotta go. And I, I just don't think, and by the way, I like him. You know, we, we have.

• 1:41:05Patrick Bet-David?

  Do you think most do?

• 1:41:07Tom Ellsworth?

  No, they used to.

• 1:41:08Patrick Bet-David?

  So why? That's the, that's the thing.

• 1:41:10Tom Ellsworth?

  Because he, he didn't come back, he seems a little arrogant and aloof. I'm sorry to say that, but the average person looks at him, he seems arrogant and aloof.

• 1:41:19Patrick Bet-David?

  Do you think that's fixable?

• 1:41:20Tom Ellsworth?

  It is fixable. Talk about things and have solutions and demonstrate that you've got the ability to do it.

• 1:41:26Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, where are you at with this? Do you think he's gonna win or lose?

• 1:41:29Speaker 05

  No, I think he's.

• 1:41:29Tom Ellsworth?

  Is it fixable in months? No.

• 1:41:31Speaker 05

  No, I think, again, this is the.

• 1:41:33Patrick Bet-David?

  So you think he's gonna lose?

• 1:41:34Speaker 05

  The kitchen, I think Republicans are in for a really tough November. As sad as that is and what that actually means, Republicans are in for a tough November. People would have given him a little bit of slack if things were different. Yes, I think Tom, you're right. He's a little bit aloof. He doesn't connect well with the average American. Most of average Americans would say, okay, that's not a big deal. But when kitchen table issues are front and center every single day, you don't want aloof. You want somebody who says, I feel your pain.

• 1:41:59Tom Ellsworth?

  And aloof said, it was aloof, but then he said something.

• 1:42:01Speaker 05

  Well, he, he actually confirmed everybody's worst fears.

• 1:42:06Tom Ellsworth?

  Look, the greatest states in the country right now are led by Republican governors. Ron DeSantis, shout out to him, and Governor Abbott in Texas. And the former greatest states in the Union, Gavin Newsom and Kathy Hochul have completely ruined. So I'm not following the Ohio race. I do like Vivek. I understand that a lot of people maybe have been turned off. I'm a fan. And I want to say, when's the last, I think Ohio hasn't had a Democratic governor since pre-John Kasich 15, 20 years ago. So Ohio's doing pretty damn good. Ohio State's doing pretty damn good. Columbus, Cincinnati, you even had LeBron out there in Cleveland.

• 1:42:51Tom Ellsworth?

  Be careful what you wish for, Ohio. Things are going pretty damn good for you. And if you don't go with Vivek, you're gonna go end up potentially what's happened in California and New York.

• 1:43:01Patrick Bet-David?

  So you're saying for the voters to show up? A lot of people think they're not gonna show up. Then if they're not showing up, who is the onus on? If the onus is on Vivek, why are they not showing up? Now, by the way, just so you know, this is just a Kalshi poll, and we follow Kalshi because nowadays, that's where I go to. I trust these polls more than any other polls I look at. When Kalshi puts this up, I want to know why the audience has put $1.7 million on choosing Amy over Vivek. Why are they doing that? Why do you think?

• 1:43:32Tom Ellsworth?

  Just to be clear, these are odds, right? So like, it's 50/50 at this point, give or take, right?

• 1:43:36Patrick Bet-David?

  It's not, it's 55/45, 54/46.

• 1:43:39Tom Ellsworth?

  But, so, I mean, it's, but also...

• 1:43:42Patrick Bet-David?

  But Adam, but go back to, this is kinda like Poliev, what was his name?

• 1:43:46Tom Ellsworth?

  Pierre Poliev.

• 1:43:48Patrick Bet-David?

  He had a 94% chance, and he lost to Carney. Now, he royally screwed up. He royally screwed up because he did not want to work. Vivek's not a guy that's not a worker.

• 1:43:59Tom Ellsworth?

  Oh, Vivek is...

• 1:44:00Patrick Bet-David?

  Pierre was an arrogant, pompous, eating apple, I don't need to sit down with podcasts, scared, walking on eggshells, little bit of a pansy-esque type of Stalin. And now, after he lost, he's now going and doing podcasts, which is good. But I'm trying to find out, this isn't over with right now. Will, what do you think about Vivek's chance of winning against Amy?

• 1:44:18Speaker 05

  I think it's tough, and you know, to kinda say the elephant in the room with this, you know, the fact that his last name is Ramaswamy, and I don't know if people totally look at him as the Republican candidate, you know? Just to be completely honest with people...

• 1:44:31Patrick Bet-David?

  The Vice President's wife's name is Usha.

• 1:44:34Speaker 05

  Of course, you know, but we elected, people elected Donald Trump for being Donald Trump, not for JD.

• 1:44:40Patrick Bet-David?

  So you think the name is gonna hurt him?

• 1:44:41Speaker 05

  I do, I do think it hurts him. I think it makes people less excited about him. You know, I think, right now in America, you're seeing all sorts of problems that, I guess you could say are race-related, but a lot of it comes down to like ethnic, ethnically done, and I think that people, I don't know if people want this. I'm gonna be completely honest with you.

• 1:45:01Tom Ellsworth?

  Just because he's Indian, or because of his last name, or because of what?

• 1:45:03Speaker 05

  Both, yeah, yeah, yeah, I think people...

• 1:45:05Tom Ellsworth?

  I mean, we just, we voted for Barack Hussein Obama.

• 1:45:08Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:45:09Tom Ellsworth?

  What are we talking about?

• 1:45:10Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 1:45:11Tom Ellsworth?

  So I...

• 1:45:12Speaker 05

  That was Democrats, you know, the Democrats voted for...

• 1:45:13Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, also, there was a lot of people in the middle that voted for him.

• 1:45:15Patrick Bet-David?

  You're saying Republicans may not.

• 1:45:16Speaker 05

  Yeah, I'm saying Republicans may not. I think it's also, oh, sorry.

• 1:45:20Patrick Bet-David?

  What could he do, what could he do, Will, to change it? Like, remember when, the first time Trump was running, and hey, I'd grab him by the, you know what? And, so what did he do? He went and got a Mike Pence, hardcore conservative, and safe, and Christian, and no, he's a good man, he's a good man. And I think Pence played a bigger role for Trump winning than JD did for Trump. I don't think JD played any role for Trump winning, I think Pence did. What could he do here strategically to be able to regain the vote? Regain the Republican Party?

• 1:45:45Speaker 05

  I think he's gotta push hard on the America-first agenda. I think if he's not going forward with that, on American interests as the first thing, you know, I mean, there's all this talk about these H1B visas, and bringing people in, and all this kinda stuff, and if he doesn't really take a stand against that, you know, I think it's going to be losing for him.

• 1:46:01Patrick Bet-David?

  All right, we'll see. Let's go to the next story. Paramount, always known for being, you know, for the most part in California, they set California exit plan over antitrust battle with blue states, $111 billion WBD merger, and they're leaving. So now, speculation where they're going, some people know, some people are speculating, but Paramount is deadly serious about relocating its headquarters out of California if the state doesn't drop out its effort to block the company's pending Warner Brothers/Discovery merger, sources told Deadline. With executives telling LA Mayor Karen Bass and Attorney General Rob Bonta that billion-dollar merger with Paramount CEO David Ellison has called blackmail in response, California has floated, Georgia, Tennessee, and Texas has possible new homes.

• 1:46:45Patrick Bet-David?

  Bonta's office called the relocation talk, saber rattling, saying what Paramount decides to do and Paramount's choice alone. Counties Economic Development Corporation report estimated a full relocation could cost California $28,000 to $58,000 jobs, and $10.6 billion to $21 billion annually in economic output. Tom, how big of an impact would this be, and how likely is it that they're leaving?

• 1:47:12Speaker 07

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• 1:49:22Tom Ellsworth?

  This would be the impact that they're saying. I buy off on the...

• 1:49:26Patrick Bet-David?

  The numbers.

• 1:49:27Tom Ellsworth?

  The numbers, yep. I have no reason to doubt those, number one. Number two, I don't think it's saber rattling. I think if you look at it, you know, back in the old days, why did you need to have steel mills where they were, in the Rust Belt? Why? Because we're moving ore across the Great Lakes, that's where the ore was. The ore gets offloaded, goes into smelters, we made steel, we made iron, we did all this. In a streaming world, you do not have to be in California. In a world where you need the labor that the studios need, you don't have to be in California. It used to be convenient. The fact is, this icon, the Paramount arch that everybody drives from, takes pictures and everything like that in LA, you know what?

• 1:50:10Tom Ellsworth?

  They haven't been making movies at the volume that they're back there for 25 years. They've been in Vancouver, they've been in Georgia, they've been in other places. They've been doing things on sound stages there, but they really haven't been there in terms of the factory of content, nor do they need to necessarily be there. And they're looking at the cost of real estate and the cost of doing business there. I don't think it's saber rattling. I think they're saying, you know what? I can make a lot less money, and 1/3 of the music industry moved to Brentwood, Tennessee, and there's streamers, and there's a lot of things in Tennessee, and Tennessee's favorable for it. So they're like, you know, I'm moving. You don't have to be there.

• 1:50:51Tom Ellsworth?

  It used to be that everybody was there, so kinda like, the Rust Belt, and the Great Lakes, and the ore coming on ships and barges, it used to be that that was it. It's not no more. You don't have to be there, and it's a cost decision. I don't think it's saber rattling. Will they move?

• 1:51:06Patrick Bet-David?

  Paramount.

• 1:51:07Tom Ellsworth?

  I give it 60% that they're moving. It's not saber rattling.

• 1:51:11Speaker 05

  100% they're move. But I don't think it, I think they're using this as an excuse. I think they were gonna move anyway, because of what Tom says, it makes no sense.

• 1:51:18Patrick Bet-David?

  It's a great opportunity.

• 1:51:19Speaker 05

  Yeah, you don't need, you don't need the scale of Los Angeles anymore like it used to, so it made more sense to move, and they're just saying, let's just, let's just speed up the timetable, they're giving us a reason to do it.

• 1:51:28Patrick Bet-David?

  Where are you at?

• 1:51:29Speaker 05

  Yeah, why would you not leave California? I lived there. I lived in Los Angeles, you know, right over by the Warner Brothers Studios, myself over in Toluca Lake for five years.

• 1:51:37Patrick Bet-David?

  It's a great city, by the way, Toluca Lake.

• 1:51:38Speaker 05

  It's amazing, amazing, little farmer's market.

• 1:51:40Patrick Bet-David?

  You know who used to have a house in Toluca Lake? Marilyn Monroe.

• 1:51:43Speaker 05

  Really?

• 1:51:44Patrick Bet-David?

  Used to have a house in, I know that because...

• 1:51:45Speaker 05

  Every single Hollywood apartment I would move into, they'd always say, oh, Marilyn Monroe lived right there.

• 1:51:49Patrick Bet-David?

  No, actually, the houses, the houses in Toluca Lake that she had, in a corner area, but, you know, relative of ours bought it many years ago.

• 1:51:58Speaker 05

  Yeah, and I loved it there, but, you know, there just comes a certain point, it's a breaking point, you have to leave, and it seems very obvious why they would.

• 1:52:06Tom Ellsworth?

  Whether you're any of the big major studios, whether you're Sony, Warner Brothers, Paramount, the question is, you know, whether they're gonna leave or not is, why would you stay? Why are you staying in LA at this point? Just because like future generations, I'm sorry, past generations loved Hollywood and what Hollywood did for America? Yeah, that's great. We can have sort of like that wonderful feeling about what happened back in the day. But looking at where California is headed, why would you stay and sign up for more of this nonsense? That's my opinion. And by the way, Paramount, the weather in Florida is incredible. Come on here to Florida, South Florida, you're not gonna do better than.

• 1:52:41Patrick Bet-David?

  You know Glenn Beck bought at the Blaze, I think the old Paramount building they had in Dallas. Did you know that?

• 1:52:47Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah, yeah. Well, he said he has a massive studio.

• 1:52:49Patrick Bet-David?

  It's, I don't know if you've ever, have you ever been to it?

• 1:52:51Tom Ellsworth?

  It's incredible.

• 1:52:51Patrick Bet-David?

  Have you been to it? It's ridiculous.

• 1:52:53Tom Ellsworth?

  It's a museum.

• 1:52:54Patrick Bet-David?

  It's ridiculous. How beautiful that place is.

• 1:52:56Tom Ellsworth?

  Spread your wings Paramount, spread your wings.

• 1:52:58Patrick Bet-David?

  Texas could be a place, but Florida.

• 1:52:59Tom Ellsworth?

  Time to put the nail in the coffin.

• 1:53:00Patrick Bet-David?

  Well, you know, you know what needs to be happening? I hope Governor DeSantis's team is calling and selling and making a pitch on why Florida.

• 1:53:08Tom Ellsworth?

  Sell the dream, baby.

• 1:53:09Patrick Bet-David?

  Sell the dream, baby, to come to Florida. I think we need to be recruiting these guys to come down here. All right.

• 1:53:13Tom Ellsworth?

  I'll sign up for that recruiting.

• 1:53:15Patrick Bet-David?

  All right, next one. Joe Rogan thinks AI running the government would stop all wars on the planet. Okay, all wars on the planet. I don't know if you have a clip in the back or not, but I'll read this. If you have it, pull it up. Joe Rogan said he hopes AI eventually replaces humans in running government and international relations, telling physicist Carlo Rovelli, as AI becomes more and more omnipresent, one of the things that we're gonna farm off is government. Imagine a war, imagine a war where it stops, a world where it stops. Is this it? Go for it.

• 1:53:48Speaker 16

  It sounds like, like a very, it's a sounds like a crazy hope. But my hope is that as AI becomes more and more omnipresent, as we start farming off various tasks to it, one of the things that we're gonna farm off is government. One of the things we're gonna farm off is how we interact with other countries. I know that's terrifying to people, but just think of the disastrous effects that we've had so far with humans doing it.

• 1:54:25Speaker 16

  If all international military conflicts ended instantaneously upon AI governing the use of conflicts and military weapons, and imagine that? Imagine a war where it stops, all war stops on the planet? That is one of the things that everybody wants, but no one thinks could ever possibly happen. If you ask the average person in the street, what are the odds that in 10 years from now there'd be no war anywhere on earth? Everyone's gonna say no. You're never gonna have that. Isn't that insane? That the idea of people, for whatever reason, wanting to kill each other is universally accepted as being something that's always.

• 1:55:08Patrick Bet-David?

  So in other words, humans have a terrible historical record of governing conflict. Do you agree with what Joe is saying here, Jeff?

• 1:55:15Tom Ellsworth?

  No, I think it's incredibly naive to begin with, and it's, it's a hell of a lot more complex than just saying, if we only got people to act rationally, we wouldn't have conflicts. That's just, that's just nonsense. I mean, it's, it's utopian nonsense is what it is.

• 1:55:30Patrick Bet-David?

  Why would he say that?

• 1:55:32Tom Ellsworth?

  Because I think there's, in the context of the discussion we had earlier, that we're, people are tired of it. People are tired of conflict. That doesn't mean that we can just eliminate it through farming off governmental capabilities to a machine. That doesn't necessarily follow. I think it's, it's a bad premise, it's a bad argument, and it ends up in crazy town.

• 1:55:50Speaker 05

  I think it also has to do with the fact on that question that Trump is not warning about any AI safety. Trump is basically coming out and saying, you know, we don't need to worry about this, it's all gonna be fine. Independently, people will do it, and I think that's a big misstep.

• 1:56:02Patrick Bet-David?

  Tell me why. Why do you think? So you, you, you're 30 years, you just turned 30 last week. Why are you, are you concerned? Are you optimistic? What role do you think AI is gonna play?

• 1:56:12Speaker 05

  Oh, I'm incredibly concerned. I'm actually writing my third book right now. It's called This Book Is Not Written By AI. And I should love it. Yeah, it should come out next fall. I am entirely against, yeah, you won't find it on here, it's, it's, you know, still working on it, but incredibly concerned for all, a multitude of reasons. You know, we can talk about human extinction and all that coming, and of course, that's scary and, and do it kill us all and all that. But the main point is, is that it's taking away people's humanity and it takes away people's ability to think for themselves. You know, like I'd be, I go and do these debates on college campuses, right? And I'm there, I don't have any notes. I have to basically read everything before, be like a human encyclopedia, so that anyone who comes up and asks me about a multitude of millions of different things, I have to know the answer.

• 1:56:54Speaker 05

  And I'll be there, talking to people, having a conversation, and they're on their phone on AI, talking to me while fact checking it at the same time. That's not real knowledge. That's just me debating an AI. Why'd you even come up to the microphone if you're just gonna search this? And people do this for everything, and they're not actually learning anything. And if you go to any of these big companies right now, they're going and writing all their press releases with AI, they're doing all their marketing with AI. It's like, at what certain point, it's like, why am I paying you $200,000 to run marketing for our company when I could have some intern that I pay $15 an hour that just puts in the exact same prompt as you? You're basically useless. People have amazing minds, amazing brains, and we're losing it to social media and AI, and it's only going to get worse as the AI love epidemic comes, the transhumanism comes. I mean, so many different problems that are coming.

• 1:57:39Patrick Bet-David?

  Tom, what do you think about what Rogan is saying here? Do you agree with him?

• 1:57:42Tom Ellsworth?

  I think Rogan was, Rogan was speculating, and he, he was saying, wow, you know, all these things that were, what do you use the word, farming? We're just farming them out to this and this and this. And I think what he was getting at, if we farmed out to AI, you know, working with other countries, if, as I was reading this, one of the things we're gonna farm about how we interact with other countries, I know that's terrifying people, but just think of the disaster effect that we've had so far with humans doing it. So I think what he's saying is, when humans and egos get together, countries fight. If AI was doing it, then it would be told, don't fight, just find a solution. I think that's what Rogan was saying. So he's a little Pollyanna, because you do get to the part, okay, well then what, what are humans really doing? What relationships do we really have? And I don't buy off on that.

• 1:58:27Tom Ellsworth?

  I think, I think this is a time for humans, this is a time for statesmen, this is a time for connection, this is a time for somebody standing up and leading, not programming AI how to lead. And by the way, whose fingers are on the keyboard? You're gonna come back to somebody, whose fingers are on the keyboard, giving it the parameters? Oh, by the way, this is Iran, so be aggressive and be in charge and don't give them an inch. Okay, well, we just eliminated the conflict, but now it's programmed in. So I, I think Rogan was just speculating, and I, I discount it because leadership means human interaction representing humans. And I, I just don't buy off on all the wars would stop if AI was doing it rather than your president, your secretary of state.

• 1:59:08Adam Sosnick?

  Uh, I've, I've actually been watching the, sort of the evolution of Joe Rogan. I've been, I've been listening to a lot of his old standup lately. Has anybody listened to Pandora? Everybody still listens to Spotify and Apple. I still love Pandora. And you can put together a comedy channel, and Joe Rogan's monkeys in space stuff that he used to talk about. And what I've, what I've noticed about Joe Rogan is this, is that he's like the original just asking questions guy. Hey, look, I'm just speculating, I'm just asking questions. He was, the things that he said recently about Jesus and religion are actually incredible, given like things he said 10, 20 years ago, when he was sort of anti-religion. So I've seen his, I've seen him evolve politically, I've seen him evolve.

• 1:59:53Patrick Bet-David?

  So give your thoughts on it.

• 1:59:54Adam Sosnick?

  On one of the things. So I, I don't, when I look at Joe Rogan, I don't look to him as a substantial debate, I look at him and saying, hey, hmm, wouldn't this be interesting to talk about? Who I would basically listen to are the, basically the AI companies, not the politicians here. So, and regarding AI, you know, again, I'm not the brainiac here, but I do try to research. Are you familiar with something called the Luddites? You familiar with these people?

• 2:00:19Speaker 05

  That's what people call me.

• 2:00:20Adam Sosnick?

  Oh, you're really? Okay.

• 2:00:21Speaker 05

  Well, I'm not, but that's what they say.

• 2:00:23Tom Ellsworth?

  You're a Russian Luddite.

• 2:00:24Adam Sosnick?

  So the Luddites were during the Industrial Revolution, I believe it was going on in, in, the UK and, and old British times, they were basically English workers who worked in, in factories, who basically rebelled against the revolution, rebelled against the machines, like there's the famous group Rage Against The Machine. So the Luddites in the 1810s, 1820s, whatever, they were someone who disliked and basically distrust technology. So the technology that they were using for their, for their, for their, their jobs, they would start smashing and ruining the technology. And, you know, low and behold, they were wrong. The Industrial Revolution basically went on, it changed the world, and the world's better for it.

• 2:01:04Adam Sosnick?

  So I'm just wondering if the, the AI doomers and people, the wits of the world evidently, are basically the Luddites of today? And you can't stop progress, and these things are gonna happen. To tie this in with Joe Rogan, I think he's just basically posing a question. But for me, I think there's a lot of doomsdayers out there basically saying that AI is gonna take over the world. Rogan's saying that it's gonna save the world.

• 2:01:27Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, so you, to me, the way I think about it is, I had, I don't know what, oh, I had a, who was that guy that said his name is pref- professor, and it wasn't a professor, it was a teacher, but he was saying that Trump's gonna win, he's gonna go to war to Iran, he's gonna lose, Jang or?

• 2:01:42Adam Sosnick?

  Jang.

• 2:01:42Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay.

• 2:01:42Adam Sosnick?

  The Asian guy?

• 2:01:43Patrick Bet-David?

  So he said something when I was talking to my, my, the part I really enjoyed about the conversation with him is how much he can criticize China while living in China. And he says, yeah, those are issues we just don't talk about.

• 2:01:54Adam Sosnick?

  He lives in China?

• 2:01:54Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, at the time when I talked to him, he was doing the podcast from China. He says, no, we can't criticize you, we just don't talk, don't talk about those topics, because, you know, we just, we, there's a mutual understanding with the people to criticize the China government. Okay. Peace doesn't always mean freedom.

• 2:02:10Patrick Bet-David?

  So if AI eliminates 100% of war, what does world look like for humans? Let's go there.

• 2:02:18Speaker 02

  In Brave New World, there is no war.

• 2:02:19Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, exactly.

• 2:02:20Speaker 02

  You have this dystopia.

• 2:02:21Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, what does that look like? What decisions can we make?

• 2:02:24Speaker 02

  If it's China's.

• 2:02:25Patrick Bet-David?

  How quickly are we getting arrested? So I'm going to the, and then the other part, when Lenin, you know, Stalin, all those guys, they took Karl Marx's Communist Manifesto and they brought it to Russia and USSR and it was 100%, nobody makes money. But government's gonna take care of you. Everybody drove the same car, same apartment, same underwear, same clothes, same this, same that. And this is how it is. What did Russians all start doing? They all broke the law. And what did they do on the side? They all had side businesses. And they found ways to make money. So that was 100% communism and all. And when they come to US, a lot of time when you talk to Russians, they'll say, Pat, I don't know how to say this to you, man. My parents, we grew up breaking the law to make additional money and that was a norm. It's not like you, nobody was seen as a criminal.

• 2:03:11Patrick Bet-David?

  Cause we all did it. Everybody broke the law in USSR to make money to take care of their families. So they come to the state. Guess what happens to them? They think that's still the norm. So he was trying to explain to me, this is, we've lived like this for 40 years, 30 years. This is all we know. That you have to find a way to break the law to make money. And then it takes a generation sometime for that to get out of the system and say, not in America. You don't need to do that. Go make as much money as you want. Just do it legally here, right? So I don't know if world peace is ever gonna exist as long as mankind is making the decisions. And I don't even know if I like it.

• 2:03:45Speaker 02

  Yeah, the only way world peace comes through AI, I think, is because people will be so docile and destroyed mentally that they no longer, they just sit in chairs and sax.

• 2:03:54Patrick Bet-David?

  What a horrible life. I love the debates. I love the, you know.

• 2:03:58Speaker 02

  It's also progress. Progress, progress breeds conflict.

• 2:04:01Patrick Bet-David?

  That's right.

• 2:04:02Speaker 02

  We continue to grow. We continue to have new ideas. Obviously, there are going to be people who have, you know, you talk about the Luddites. That's a, it's a perfect example. Um, the irony with the Luddites is they were.

• 2:04:10Patrick Bet-David?

  Look at the wise man now, Jeff.

• 2:04:12Speaker 02

  The smart guy over there. The Luddites were actually correct about one thing. They were, they were afraid that the machines were gonna take their jobs. Machines did take their job.

• 2:04:21Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 2:04:21Speaker 02

  But they were wrong about, exactly. That's what they were wrong about. So progress comes with conflict. To, to try to reverse engineer conflict out of the equation means almost necessarily, there is no progress.

• 2:04:32Speaker 05

  I'll tell you a story. I was at a bar a little while ago in Sarasota and there was this guy there. He's probably 20, 21 years old. And I'm not trying to be a snoop, but I'm like looking over at what he's doing. And he's Snapchatting, you know, still using Snapchat in 2026. And uh, he's talking to this girl, sends selfies. And the girl sends something back to him. He takes her message, he goes to ChatGPT, types it in and says, what should I respond to this girl on the thing? How are you supposed to actually talk with a girl in person or whatever you're trying to do? If this is the way you're living.

• 2:05:00Tom Ellsworth?

  The bigger thing is if he's in a bedroom with her and he's like, what do I do next? That's a bigger problem.

• 2:05:07Speaker 02

  That's where we're going.

• 2:05:08Patrick Bet-David?

  Hopefully he has a bigger problem. But you know, when you're, when you're going through this, obviously uh, there's gonna be a lot of conversations like this. I made a video like 10 years ago saying by 2052, the president's gonna be a robot. And they're gonna be campaigning to say, vote for this robot because this robot knows how to make the decisions to minimize war, conflict. This video was like 10, 12 years ago. We made it in 2016, when we were in the Providence Towers. It's out there public, somebody could find it. But let me get to the next story. Last story I want to get to before we wrap up is uh, Saudi accuses Houthis of attacking Mecca. And Houthis like, uh, no, we didn't do that. That's not what we did. There's no, you did. So Saudi seeks allies,

• 2:05:52Patrick Bet-David?

  seek allies, help as missile defenses run low in fight with Houthis. Do you have the video, by the way? Is this the video? Go for it.

• 2:06:06Speaker 07

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• 2:08:31Patrick Bet-David?

  So Saudi seek ally help. Saudi Arabia's running law on missile interceptors has turned to regional Western allies for help. Two regional officials said the Saudis asked France, Britain, Pakistan, Egypt to deploy air defense support against the Houthis missiles and drones. The outreach came because the United States and the kingdom, uh, the kingdom's main arms supplier has seen its own interceptor stock dwindle over the past six months. Uh, war of Iran. Saudi Arabia accused the Houthis of trying to strike Mecca with a drone declaring the city a red line. The Houthis denied it. A crucial Saudi pipeline has been shut for weeks. The Houthis have seized islands in the Bab El Mendeb Strait and oil remains above $100 a barrel. One official said the kingdom is in a very difficult position, having to protect bases, government

• 2:09:15Patrick Bet-David?

  installation and oil facilities. Adam Baron, a fellow at the Washington think tank New America, said that this is not just a Houthis versus Saudi issue, but a question of guaranteeing international shipping routes. And then US opts out, opts not to back Saudi Arabia and the Yemen meeting Houthis leaders. How do you feel about the story, Jeff?

• 2:09:36Speaker 02

  I don't think we have nearly enough information. I mean, who is, who's, what's actually true here? Is this a false flag operation to expand the wider war for Saudi Arabian purposes? Is this a legitimate threat? Um, obviously it's a legitimate threat in terms of the theater, but is this a US, is this Saudi Arabia versus Yemeni rebels of conflict? Or is this actually part of the wider Iran conflict? I think the US by not backing Saudi Arabia says, you guys, it kind of says that this was a false flag thing, that Saudi Arabia wanted to expand the wider conflict. Uh, and the US does not consider it part of the, their goals and their, and their conflict with Iran. Um, but not really a whole lot of information here.

• 2:10:15Patrick Bet-David?

  Tom?

• 2:10:16Tom Ellsworth?

  Yeah. Number one, there's not a lot of information. But number two, these two guys go way back. In 2022, after about a year of border clashes, very real border clashes, Saudi and Yemen had a truce and included the Houthis. 2022, they had a truce. No one knew what was going on. It was out in the back corner and you know, the Western media didn't cover it a whole lot, some, not, not, not. In the meantime, the Saudis made a defense pact just recently with Turkey and Pakistan. And now they reached out to Turkey and they say, hey dude, help me with this thing in my backyard here. They're breaking the truths and they're doing things and oh my gosh, they launched something at Mecca. And the turkeys, the Turks said, hang on, man.

• 2:11:00Tom Ellsworth?

  We really haven't gotten our pact validated by our parliament. And we want to chill just for a second, if that would be all right? Uh, can we do that? And he said, well, they're doing this. And so the Turks, which is the largest military in the Middle East, is Turkey. You know, clearly said, we don't want to be drawn into this, this clash down there. Cause Saudi wanted other people to clean it up. And then who did Saudi ask? They ask us. And we said, you know, we bombed the Houthis down there. We hit a bunch of their camps and stuff for about eight days, apparently about a year ago. Yeah, we're not into the kind of starting it up down here. So what's interesting to me is that the Saudis are saying, oh my God, they've thrown something at Mecca.

• 2:11:43Tom Ellsworth?

  And they have this clash that's been going on, you know, in 2021, 22, Pat. And now even Turkey said, no, I really don't want to get drawn into this down there right at the moment. And then we said, we want to get drawn in. So what everybody is saying is like Saudi, come on, the Houthis are your guys. And they are Syed, uh, Syed Shia, I believe is their sect of Islam. And that sect happens to revere Mecca as well. So it's like, yeah, I think what everybody's seeing down there with Saudi, for all the reasons articulated, Pat, is I think you got to work this Yemen thing out. You got your own treaty down there. And no one is sure of what's going on. So neither the Turks or the US wants to jump in and start, start blowing shit up.

• 2:12:28Patrick Bet-David?

  Adam.

• 2:12:30Adam Sosnick?

  Man, this Muslim on Muslim crime gotta stop, guys. You know, the Houthis and the Saudis and the Iranians and the Qataris. They're all, I mean, come on, guys. Let's, let's figure out who your real enemy is here. Obviously, I'm joking here, but the lost in all this. Did you hear about this secret meeting that took place in Germany? Apparently, a week ago between the CENTCOM, United States aligned this meeting between Israel, Egypt, Saudi, the Emiratis, Jordanians, I think the Bahrain and one or two other Middle Eastern countries to basically get them in a room and say, guys, what the are we doing with Iran at this point?

• 2:13:11Adam Sosnick?

  And the fact that Saudi, Egypt, Qataris, the Emiratis are sitting down with the Americans and the Israelis signifies one major thing.

• 2:13:21Adam Sosnick?

  Iran is the bad guy and everybody knows it. At some point, you know, Israel, who's not even being mentioned these days because, you know, no Jews, no news.

• 2:13:32Adam Sosnick?

  They're basically saying, hey, Israel, would you mind lending us a hand here and helping us figure out what to do? Because quite frankly, we're incapable of beating a ragtag terrorist group called the Houthis. So, and we're also incapable of beating the IRGC. So please help us, would you? Because clearly Saudi and respect to MBS, I think he's doing great things in Saudi. You're using all American weapons. You have all our capabilities. We've given you planes. We've given you bombs. You can't beat the Houthis? What are you guys doing over there?

• 2:14:07Tom Ellsworth?

  Is that the way it happened? That everybody gets together and America says, what do we do about this?

• 2:14:11Adam Sosnick?

  I mean, who do you think's in charge of that meeting?

• 2:14:14Tom Ellsworth?

  And the Emiratis say, who's we, white boy?

• 2:14:17Adam Sosnick?

  So the

• 2:14:19Patrick Bet-David?

  What are you saying, Tom?

• 2:14:19Adam Sosnick?

  Yeah, what are you saying?

• 2:14:20Tom Ellsworth?

  Well, I'm saying you get everybody together and it says, what do we do about this? And it says, who's we? You know, you started this. It's escalated over to us. We've engaged. We agree that Iran is a bad actor, but who's we?

• 2:14:33Adam Sosnick?

  What's your point?

• 2:14:34Patrick Bet-David?

  He's making a very good point. He's saying, we didn't start this. You started.

• 2:14:39Adam Sosnick?

  No, no, no, no. The Houthi thing, to correct everybody, has been going on for 20 years in Yemen.

• 2:14:44Patrick Bet-David?

  No, that's not, that's not what he's saying.

• 2:14:45Tom Ellsworth?

  But you mixed it. You're talking about the meeting.

• 2:14:48Patrick Bet-David?

  Talking two different things.

• 2:14:48Adam Sosnick?

  Okay, but that's also, that's also a part of it. I'm not isolating anything. That whole region is chaos.

• 2:14:53Patrick Bet-David?

  I said Thomas.

• 2:14:53Adam Sosnick?

  No, I know, but you started.

• 2:14:55Tom Ellsworth?

  And I'm reacting to your first point that you correctly made about the, the secret meeting in Germany, getting together, talk about Iran.

• 2:15:01Adam Sosnick?

  But it wasn't just about Iran. It was also about the Houthis. It's about a mess with the shipping straits and what's going on here. It's all interweaved into one thing. It's how do we get out of this mess?

• 2:15:10Tom Ellsworth?

  That's what the meeting said, is it's not. The Houthis is a Saudi problem. We, we don't consider it part of our, the wider conflict. I think that's the consensus here.

• 2:15:18Adam Sosnick?

  Well, Saudi, Saudi problem.

• 2:15:20Tom Ellsworth?

  No, the Saudis obviously don't.

• 2:15:21Adam Sosnick?

  The Saudis are asking everybody to come to their defense.

• 2:15:23Tom Ellsworth?

  Right, and nobody wants to.

• 2:15:24Adam Sosnick?

  And the Saudis would get their weaponry from America.

• 2:15:26Tom Ellsworth?

  And the US and the Turks said no. That's the thing. Everybody keeps saying no, which should tell you that their, their view of this conflict is, is not part of the wider conflict.

• 2:15:34Adam Sosnick?

  Well, we'll see what happens here. But when, when, when, uh, when the Houthis take over shipping straits in the Red Sea or in this other area, everyone's going to get involved anyway. So I think that was part of the conversation.

• 2:15:44Speaker 05

  Yeah, I'm actually on Adam's side for this one. I think, I think you're right on that. I think it will probably escalate into something else. And it seems, yeah, I mean, again, not enough information and then we'll see what happens. But again, like what happened with Iran escalating things there. It said it wasn't going to happen. It was going to be over. I could see something like that happening here in the same.

• 2:16:00Patrick Bet-David?

  Awesome. I, you know what today's for me? Today is Friday and a few months ago, uh, when we pay, when we have our pay cycle that we pay people, I made omelette a few months ago for everybody. You know what I'm doing today? I'm making chicken barbecue.

• 2:16:15Adam Sosnick?

  Oh, yeah. I'm coming for lunch today.

• 2:16:17Patrick Bet-David?

  My, for my recipe that I've been doing this for the last 26 years. I gotta go cook for everybody. But Will, thanks for coming out. It was great having you on.

• 2:16:25Tom Ellsworth?

  Of course, no, thank you guys.

• 2:16:26Patrick Bet-David?

  And your analysis on NFL season, spot on.

• 2:16:30Tom Ellsworth?

  Next time we have to talk about, we gotta talk about disc golf.

• 2:16:33Patrick Bet-David?

  The Super Bowl? Yeah, disc golf.

• 2:16:34Tom Ellsworth?

  Disc golf.

• 2:16:34Patrick Bet-David?

  And Jeff, as usual, I can't wait for our next one.

• 2:16:37Tom Ellsworth?

  Yep.

• 2:16:37Patrick Bet-David?

  And you know what I want to hear the next one?

• 2:16:39Tom Ellsworth?

  I'm gonna have, I'm gonna have a 20, 20, 2,000, 20,000 word report.

• 2:16:43Adam Sosnick?

  Jeff, you know who you are? You're like a, you're like an economic, you're like an economic rock star. You got that hair, you got the glasses.

• 2:16:48Patrick Bet-David?

  Everybody else.

• 2:16:49Adam Sosnick?

  You're doing both things.

• 2:16:50Patrick Bet-David?

  Everybody else, have a wonderful weekend. God bless. We'll do it again on Monday. Take care, everybody. Bye, bye, bye, bye.

• 2:16:55Tom Ellsworth?

  Thank you.

• 2:16:57Speaker 07

  Now, more than ever, we need someone on our side. But Rob Whitman? Whitman's votes drove up costs, cut Medicaid and risked 350,000 Virginians healthcare to pay for tax breaks for himself and his donors. He's not on our side. Shannon Taylor will fight corruption, cut taxes and bring down costs. This November, vote for Shannon Taylor. She's for us. Paid for by HMP, the House Majority PAC dot com. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee.

• 2:17:27Speaker 09

  How many discounts does USAA Auto Insurance offer? Too many to say here. Multi-vehicle discount, safe driver discount, uh, new vehicle discount, storage discount?

• 2:17:36Speaker 10

  How many discounts will you stack up? Tap the banner or visit USAA dot com slash auto discounts. Restrictions apply.

• 2:17:42Speaker 12

  Hi there, I am fully charged and here to tell you, Toy Story 5 is now on Disney Plus. Woody, Buzz and Jesse are back for a brand new adventure with such seriously cool new tech. What? Holy butterscotch! You said it, Jesse. So save your batteries and watch the global phenomenon at home. And the best part, it's perfect for the whole family. Power up your movie night and watch Disney and Pixar's Toy Story 5, now streaming on Disney Plus, rated PG.