“Trump Would’ve Won Without Musk” - Ian Bremmer DEFENDS Davos, Deep State & Global Elite Agendas | PBD Podcast | Ep. 542

Patrick Bet-David sits down for an interview with Ian Bremmer, geopoliticalscientisit and founder of Eurasia Group. Bremmer, a World Economic Forum speaker, gives insights into the WEF’s annual Davos meeting, Klaus Schwab, Trump’s 2024 election win, and the Too 10 global risks of 2025. ---- 👕 GET THE LATEST VT MERCH: ⁠https://bit.ly/3BZbD6l⁠ https://bit.ly/3BZbD6l 📕 PBD'S BOOK "THE ACADEMY": ⁠https://bit.ly/41rtEV4⁠ https://bit.ly/41rtEV4 📰 VTNEWS. AI: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/3OExClZ⁠ https://bit.ly/3OExClZ 🎙️ FOLLOW THE PODCAST ON SPOTIFY: ⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4g57zR2⁠ https://bit.ly/4g57zR2 🎙️ FOLLOW THE PODCAST ON ITUNES: ⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4g1bXAh⁠ https://bit.ly/4g1bXAh 🎙️ FOLLOW THE PODCAST ON ALL PLATFORMS: ⁠https://bit.ly/4eXQl6A⁠ https://bit.ly/4eXQl6A 📱 CONNECT ON MINNECT: ⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4ikyEkC⁠ https://bit.ly/4ikyEkC 👔 BET-DAVID CONSULTING: ⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/3ZjWhB7⁠ https://bit.ly/3ZjWhB7 🎓 VALUETAINMENT UNIVERSITY: ⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/3BfA5Qw⁠ https://bit.ly/3BfA5Qw 📺 JOIN THE CHANNEL: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/4g5C6Or⁠ https://bit.ly/4g5C6Or 💬 TEXT US: Text “PODCAST” to 310-340-1132 to get the latest updates in real-time! ABOUT US: Patrick Bet-David is the founder and CEO of Valuetainment Media. He is the author of the #1 Wall Street Journal Bestseller “Your Next Five Moves” (Simon & Schuster) and a father of 2 boys and 2 girls. He currently resides in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Speaker 00

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• 0:16Speaker 02

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• 0:41Patrick Bet-David?

  You're New York Times bestseller. You've been shown in many different meetings with some people that would be considered globalists. You've spoken at World Economic Forum multiple times. Some people would consider them deep state.

• 0:51Speaker 04

  I've gone for 15 years. I can assure you that no running of the world is being done by the World Economic Forum.

• 0:58Speaker 05

  I see the need for a great reset.

• 1:00Patrick Bet-David?

  You don't think that's a little weird?

• 1:01Speaker 04

  No.

• 1:02Patrick Bet-David?

  Really? You don't think that's a little weird?

• 1:04Speaker 04

  No. I mean, you're a smart guy.

• 1:06Patrick Bet-David?

  No, I am a smart guy.

• 1:08Speaker 04

  And I ask questions. I think globalization is good.

• 1:11Patrick Bet-David?

  I think all of you guys are bought on this side. You guys are for sale.

• 1:15Speaker 04

  And the idea that that's true only of one party, not the other, is insane.

• 1:18Patrick Bet-David?

  Tell part of my argument.

• 1:20Speaker 04

  Trump sees that he has a tool, and he scattershot, uses it everywhere. I think that is one of the most irresponsible decisions by a president I have ever seen in my life, honestly. And why is he doing it? Because he wants to show he can?

• 1:35Patrick Bet-David?

  Do you know what happened to the Democratic credibility to me? Right here.

• 1:39Speaker 04

  It got hurt.

• 1:40Patrick Bet-David?

  Not hurt.

• 1:41Speaker 04

  Completely.

• 1:42Patrick Bet-David?

  This is not hurt. This is the first time in history. It's shattered.

• 1:45Speaker 04

  China today, they have advanced technologies. They're ahead of us.

• 1:48Patrick Bet-David?

  I don't know if you can say it, because that could even upset some of your friends.

• 1:51Speaker 04

  No, no, it's not that.

• 1:52Patrick Bet-David?

  Dinner will be canceled. We'll call you.

• 1:54Speaker 04

  I can say whatever I want. I can.

• 1:56Patrick Bet-David?

  I don't know if you can say it.

• 1:57Speaker 04

  I really can.

• 1:58Patrick Bet-David?

  I want to protect you. Don't say everything you want to say.

• 2:00Speaker 04

  No, no, no, no, no.

• 2:09Patrick Bet-David?

  Very interesting guest today. Two and a half hour conversation. Ian Bremmer, geopolitical expert. For the last 26 years, he comes out with the top 10 global risks every year. This guy's gotten tens of millions of views. One of his TED Talks got 10 plus million views. You know, spoken at World Economic Forum many, many times. He's been in that circle many, many times. I asked him about Klaus Schwab. I asked him about World Economic Forum. His answer is very different. I asked him, what do you think about the guy that talks about a great reset? What do you think about the fact that COVID happens in March of 2020? Four months later, Klaus Schwab writes a book called The COVID Reset or The Great Reset, COVID-19 Great Reset. And he had his own opinions on it.

• 2:51Patrick Bet-David?

  We talked about Trump, the relationship with Musk was very, very... The way he explained the dynamics of how he views Trump and Musk leverage each other's relationship. I've probably not heard broken down by anybody the way he did. This guy's a certified genius. At 15 years old, he went to Tulane College. By 16 years old, the college sends him to Russia and he's at USSR. And he's staying right next to, you know, all the main events in Moscow with everything that's happening. And very rarely I do a two and a half hour podcast because I got a meeting. I'm late to 30 minutes, but I really, really enjoyed this conversation.

• 3:36Patrick Bet-David?

  And I hope you do as well with the one and only Ian Bremmer.

• 4:08Patrick Bet-David?

  How you doing?

• 4:08Speaker 04

  I'm doing good, man.

• 4:09Patrick Bet-David?

  Good?

• 4:09Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 4:10Patrick Bet-David?

  And Armenia, two Armenians in a room.

• 4:12Speaker 04

  Happens, right?

• 4:12Patrick Bet-David?

  I mean, it's a miracle, but it does happen every once in a while.

• 4:15Speaker 04

  Yeah, I feel the connection already.

• 4:17Patrick Bet-David?

  See the connection as well. You know, obviously, I've seen your stuff for many years. You know, you've done stuff that TEDx, TED Talks, 10 million views. You know, always making your predictions every year, what's gonna happen? The risks, all that stuff. How does somebody wake up one day and say, "I wanna get into this space"? How did it happen to you?

• 4:36Speaker 04

  So, when I went to college, I was really young. I was 15. And I grew up with nothing. I grew up in the projects. I'd never traveled anywhere. I had a professor, this was back in 1986. I had a professor that was leading a trip to the Soviet Union. This was when Gorbachev, like, first came in. It was, this was before reform. This is like, super evil empire Reagan days, right? And I begged him, "Take me on this trip." And so here I am as a kid, finding myself halfway around the world, behind the iron curtain, authoritarian regime, communism, crazy government, but meeting young people that in many ways are just like you and me. Fascinating.

• 5:19Speaker 04

  And then three years later, the wall comes down. So I was very much, you know, very impressionable, in the right place at the right time. The world was changing. Felt like democracy was winning. It felt like our ideas were actually, you know, sort of becoming, you know, helping people all over the world. And how could you not wanna do something with that? Be a part of that? So that's what inspired me to wanna understand different people everywhere and try to do something with that.

• 5:49Patrick Bet-David?

  15 years old, you go to Tulane.

• 5:51Speaker 04

  15 years old. Well, it's not my fault. It's not like I said I wanna go to Tulane at 15.

• 5:55Patrick Bet-David?

  15 years old, you're in a party town. What do you do? Where are you staying at?

• 6:00Speaker 04

  One, you lie about your age.

• 6:02Patrick Bet-David?

  Right off the bat.

• 6:04Speaker 04

  Well, the girls are not gonna date a fifteen year old and it wasn't like I was gonna troll high schools, right? No, so I mean, I just like pretended I was just eighteen, I pretended I'm normal. And, uh, and, and then you, I joined a frat and that didn't go so well.

• 6:17Patrick Bet-David?

  What happened?

• 6:18Speaker 04

  Uh, they promised they weren't gonna haze and they lied. And I couldn't really handle it. So I quit. But, you know, when you're fifteen in college, and especially at a party school, the hard thing is not your, your grades and the classes. The hard thing is trying to find a way to actually be a normal kid. And so here I am by myself for the first time away from family and trying to learn how to socialize with people, how to just be normal. And that was, that took a lot of effort.

• 6:47Patrick Bet-David?

  How's, how's mom handling you? Like, was mom like, you know, we're, we're taking one of our kids to a soccer camp, right? Uh, for IMG and he's gonna be there for a week. So does he stay at the school? Does he stay with us? Does he stay at the campuses? And I said, how does mom handle you being gone at fifteen? How does she do that? Cause mom's Armenian.

• 7:04Speaker 04

  Yeah, and mom's Armenian. My dad was German, uh, died when I was four.

• 7:11Patrick Bet-David?

  Your dad died, you, you died, your dad died when you were four?

• 7:14Speaker 04

  Yeah. Yeah, they met, they met, my, um, my dad was an enlisted man in the army and my mom was in high school, met on Revere Beach and, uh, she fell in love, quit high school, eloped with him because he was being sent out to Ecuador to be based and she was an officer's wife. And so that was the, that was the background. So when he died, she went back to Boston, Chelsea, where her family was. And I mean, her life came crashing down and, and I was, I was her life and then my brother later.

• 7:44Patrick Bet-David?

  Is that mom and dad there?

• 7:46Speaker 04

  That's, that's mom and dad. Yeah, that's right. Yeah, there you go.

• 7:49Patrick Bet-David?

  Wow. Four years old.

• 7:51Speaker 04

  Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah.

• 7:52Patrick Bet-David?

  What, what happened to him?

• 7:53Speaker 04

  Uh, cancer. And, uh,

• 7:55Patrick Bet-David?

  That's young.

• 7:56Speaker 04

  Yeah, he was in his forties. He was young forties at the time.

• 7:59Patrick Bet-David?

  So you're going to Tulane. Can you pull up the Tulane picture I just saw? You pulled it up. That was a great scene.

• 8:03Speaker 04

  Really?

• 8:04Patrick Bet-David?

  That was, you were playing chess.

• 8:05Speaker 04

  Oh my god, that's a horrible photo. That's a horrible photo.

• 8:08Patrick Bet-David?

  You're playing chess.

• 8:08Speaker 04

  Look at those David Stockman glasses. Look at the velour sweater. It's not good. I didn't know you were gonna do this to me. I didn't know you were gonna do this to me.

• 8:15Patrick Bet-David?

  That's cool. That is cool.

• 8:18Speaker 04

  I haven't seen that photo in years.

• 8:19Patrick Bet-David?

  Fifteen years old, that is.

• 8:20Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 8:20Patrick Bet-David?

  So, did you do a four-year program like, you know, in a two-year thing? Is that kind of what happened with you because you were going through it fast? Or did you do a full four years?

• 8:27Speaker 04

  I did the full four years, but I traveled everywhere. I mean, I went to the Soviet Union a couple of times. I went to Japan. I did my junior abroad. I mean, I went from nowhere, growing up in Chelsea, Massachusetts, to traveling everywhere because there were all these opportunities.

• 8:40Patrick Bet-David?

  How old were you when you went to Russia?

• 8:42Speaker 04

  I would have been sixteen. First time sixteen.

• 8:44Patrick Bet-David?

  What, like, you know, like, I don't know if you saw when Tucker went to interview Putin and he's explaining what the subways and all the stuff looks like, right? What was it for you? Impressionable kid, you're going there, what did you notice?

• 8:55Speaker 04

  Subways were incredible, of course, and they're super, super deep underground. They were meant to be bomb shelters, all of this incredible marble artistry, grandiose. I mean, you know, communism, and it was meant to show the average Soviet citizen that this is Soviet power, it's accessible to everyone. But my first experience was very different from that. It's a funny story. So, um, this was the Hotel Cosmos, which was, excuse me, the Hotel Rusia. I was at the Cosmos as well, the Hotel Rusia. And it was in Moscow. It was right off Red Square. And at the time, it was the largest hotel in the world. It was where the Olympic athletes, the Americans, if Carter hadn't boycotted, would have been staying there.

• 9:38Speaker 04

  And so, here I am, that's the hotel, the Hotel Rusia. It's right, you see the Kremlin in the background there on the left, and there's the, there's the river. So, anyway, there I go, and there's, you know, ten of us, fourteen of us on the trip, all students from Tulane and our professor. We're two to each room, these little single beds. And, you know, you're trundling with your suitcase, um, up the stairs, down these long hallways, and, um, it was dark. And I was jet lagged, I'd never been jet lagged in my life before. I'm zonked out of my skull, I have no idea where I am. And I go to put the light on in the room because it's dark. So, it's a single bed, and there's a clip-on lamp that is clipped to the little headboard

• 10:23Speaker 04

  on the back of my bed, behind the pillow. And so, I go to try to turn the knob on the lamp, there's no knob. It turns out that it's on the wire behind the headboard. So, I, I break rule number one in the former Soviet Union, which is never put your hand someplace you can't see. I reached behind the headboard and as I go to turn on the light, it turned out that the plastic casing had been broken, eaten through. My finger went into the copper wires. I electrocute myself and pass out.

• 10:58Patrick Bet-David?

  Get out of here.

• 10:59Speaker 04

  Swear to God.

• 10:59Patrick Bet-David?

  Sixteen years old.

• 11:00Speaker 04

  Sixteen years old, my first ten minutes in like this hotel in Moscow. And I had passed out on the bed. It was and and it just you realize suddenly that, okay, this is not like in the United States. You eat an apple pie and it says caution and it's really hot. There are no fucking caution signs in the former Soviet Union. Okay, so it's it was just a real come to Jesus moment of, okay, Ian, you're gonna need to like actually be a little more aware of your surroundings here. You're gonna have to like pay attention.

• 11:32Patrick Bet-David?

  First experience.

• 11:33Speaker 04

  First experience.

• 11:34Patrick Bet-David?

  What else? What else was it for you? Like when maybe when you left, you're on the flight back. You're talking to your roommate. What are you telling him?

• 11:41Speaker 04

  Uh, I'm saying like I what an incredible, mind blowing, all of these different places. I I thought that communists were all the same. I thought like the Soviet Union, there were all gonna be these mindless automatons that hated us. Turned out, I mean, you had Armenians and you had Georgians and Azeris and Russians and Ukrainians, and they had different parts of the Soviet Union. And they they acted differently. Their culture was different. Their languages were different. I mean, and some of it, I had some personal and cultural connection with. It was nothing like what I heard in the newspapers. You know what I read in the Boston Herald? Um, you know, when I was growing up as a kid, it was nothing like that. It was so much more rich.

• 12:23Patrick Bet-David?

  When's the last time you went back to Russia?

• 12:26Speaker 04

  Oh, it would have been before the pandemic, but not much before.

• 12:29Patrick Bet-David?

  So twenty nineteen, twenty eighteen.

• 12:30Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 12:30Patrick Bet-David?

  What was it like? What was the biggest difference from eighteen to when you went in eighty six?

• 12:35Speaker 04

  Oh, I mean, first of all, just how much more money has come into these places. Right? I mean, a lot of these countries are, you know, now fully integrated into a global economy. And so you've got, you know, that's another funny thing. Um, my not my first trip to the Soviet Union. My second also was a student, right? Undergraduate student a couple of years later. And I knew from my first trip there that they were super interested in all of these American consumer goods and technology that they had no access to. I mean, so these were the days where you'd bring a pair of Levi's blue jeans and they'd want to trade because they couldn't get them themselves. They'd want like a ballpoint pen, they couldn't get them. They wanted like, you know, anything that was like decent, basic, American branded stuff.

• 13:20Speaker 04

  So I went to the, remember the Sharper Image? Of course. Yeah. So, I mean, as a kid, I remember it was right off of Faneuil Hall in Boston, and that was a super fancy shop. You couldn't buy anything from there, but it was cool. You'd like all this fancy stuff. So I went there, I told them I was going to the Soviet Union, I said, would you give me like a hundred of your catalogs? So that when I go and meet these kids, I can show them the stuff that Americans have, that we could just buy, which I thought would blow their mind, right? I mean, like, you know, sort of capitalism, like behind the iron curtain. And so I get there, I remember one of the things that completely blew their mind. This would have been in eighty-eight, eighty-nine. This is the second time you went. Second time I went, as a student.

• 14:01Speaker 04

  And there was a cordless phone, right? So a home cordless phone. Sharper Image US. Sharper Image US. It was, it floated and it was waterproof. And it was so you could use it in your swimming pool. Now, imagine the orders of complete befuddlement that the average former Soviet would have with that concept. I mean, one, phones have wires, so how is it possible that you can be talking into this device that isn't physically connected? Secondly, what do you mean it floats? What are you talking about a swimming pool? Like what, you bring it with you to the common swimming pool?

• 14:46Speaker 04

  No, your own swimming pool that a lot of them, my aunt had, who was like perfectly middle-class, had a swimming pool in her backyard. You could have used it there on your floaty, right? And that's, all of that was completely inconceivable for an eighteen-year-old kid in the Soviet Union. So that was kind of interesting. Yeah, I mean, I remember in Iran.

• 15:07Patrick Bet-David?

  Uh, I had never had, we were told, like, rich people eat this fruit called ananas. Okay, pineapple, right?

• 15:15Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 15:16Patrick Bet-David?

  And banana.

• 15:17Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 15:18Patrick Bet-David?

  So I'm like, oh, man, one day, that'd be so freaking amazing. So we would be, every once in a while, we would get Nutella. And if you got Nutella, German Nutella would come in, let me tell you, we're fighting over Nutella. I mean, it was like, you know, everybody's fighting to get it done. But we go to Germany, and for the first time, I have, uh, what do you call it, banana.

• 15:38Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 15:38Patrick Bet-David?

  Oh, my god.

• 15:39Speaker 04

  You've never had a banana before.

• 15:40Patrick Bet-David?

  I'd never had a banana, eleven years old.

• 15:42Speaker 04

  Eleven years old.

• 15:42Patrick Bet-David?

  First time I had banana, Ian, I'm like, I cannot believe they kept this away from me for eleven years.

• 15:48Speaker 04

  Yeah, yeah.

• 15:49Patrick Bet-David?

  And then I ate pineapple, you know, like, full on, they're cutting it, not to go out of a can.

• 15:53Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 15:54Patrick Bet-David?

  And I'm eating this pineapple, saying how sweet it is, right? So two and two and, the innocence of a kid, you know, in Russia, you're seeing that phone flow, you know, in water, you're not, you don't have to worry about wireless. It's gotta be a big deal to somebody like that, I've seen it.

• 16:05Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 16:05Patrick Bet-David?

  But let me ask you, as an impressionable kid, eighty-six, eighty-eight, eighty-nine, you're going there versus now, for yourself, majoring in political science, or poly sci.

• 16:13Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 16:14Patrick Bet-David?

  And you're, you're a brilliant kid. At fifteen years, you're going to Tulane. It's not like you're, you're very smart, you're very educated. What's changed for you politically from them? Like, what events, because this is your world. You've been making predictions since, I think, I saw two thousand, I think you started it from eighty-six, eighty, eighty-eight or eighty?

• 16:33Speaker 04

  Ninety-eight, ninety-eight, twenty-seven years.

• 16:34Patrick Bet-David?

  So since ninety-eight, and then your predictions been making every year, but what's evolved with you from the nineteen eighty-six, nineteen eighty-eight, eighty-nine, first time you went to Russia to today, politically?

• 16:45Speaker 04

  Well, eighty-nine was this incredible moment where the United States, right, actually won. And won without a bullet being fired. Won not because our economy was better, though it was, not because our military was stronger, though it was. But because all of these people behind the Iron Curtain saw the way Americans and our allies lived, and said, we, we don't want to tolerate the loss of these liberties. We, we want to have freedoms. We want to have free speech. We want to have a free market. We want to live like these people. And, and so our political system, our civil society was, you know, the, was leading by example.

• 17:32Speaker 04

  And it was something that, I mean, if you think where we are today, when, I mean, so many people want to come to the United States. But no one outside the US would say, I want my political system to run like America's. Like, you just wouldn't say that today. But thirty-five years ago, you would. You would. And I think that that was, for me, that was really inspirational. That that was something I was a part of. Like, I would say the Pledge of Allegiance when I was a kid every morning. And I would, you know, put my hand on my heart and I knew it. And I would sing the Star Spangled Banner. And those things all felt just like you were going through the motions when you're a kid in public school. But when you then go to the Soviet Union and when you see the wall come down, you see fifteen republics become independent countries. And I was in Ukraine in nineteen ninety-two, and I was there for their first-ever day of independence.

• 18:16Patrick Bet-David?

  Oh, wow.

• 18:17Speaker 04

  And you saw ethnic Russians and ethnic Ukrainians all come out in the hundreds of thousands and celebrate the fact that they had independence from the Soviet empire. Suddenly, all those things that you did as a kid really mean something to you. They really inspire you. Like, oh, I'm proud to come from a system where I can do all of these things, where I can say all of these things.

• 18:38Patrick Bet-David?

  Proud to be an American.

• 18:40Speaker 04

  Absolutely.

• 18:40Patrick Bet-David?

  Or at least I know I'm free, right?

• 18:41Speaker 04

  Absolutely.

• 18:42Patrick Bet-David?

  And has that level of being proud to be an American, is it the same as it was in eighty-nine as it is today in twenty-twenty-five for you?

• 18:51Speaker 04

  No.

• 18:52Patrick Bet-David?

  Why not?

• 18:52Speaker 04

  It's a little different.

• 18:53Patrick Bet-David?

  Tell me why.

• 18:54Speaker 04

  I'm very proud to be in a country where I believe that it is still patriotic, essentially patriotic, to say what you disagree with, to say when you think your political leaders are making mistakes. So, and Lord knows, as an entrepreneur who started his own firm from nothing and with no money, there's no other country in the world that you could have done that. So I'm enormously grateful to have been so lucky that I could be born in a country where we could do the kind of things that you and I do. That's incredible. But I I'm a little sad that we have not lived up to the promise of 1989 in 2025.

• 19:38Speaker 04

  Not the role of the dollar, not the strength of our military, not the fact that we have the best universities everyone wants to come to. But the fact that people don't look up to our political system, the fact that we're so divided in this country right now. That is something I'm not proud of. I don't like how divided we are.

• 19:53Patrick Bet-David?

  Were you proud to be an American in 24? Were you? When's the last time you would say? The last time I was proud to be an American like 89 was when?

• 20:02Speaker 04

  Yeah, because I'm still proud to be an American, if you don't get me wrong.

• 20:04Patrick Bet-David?

  But that level.

• 20:05Speaker 04

  But like 89, uh, it probably would have been.

• 20:12Speaker 04

  Oh, definitely after 9/11.

• 20:14Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay.

• 20:15Speaker 04

  Definitely after 9/11. I was in New York. I saw the second tower go down. You saw the whole city and the whole country.

• 20:21Patrick Bet-David?

  Sure.

• 20:21Speaker 04

  Come together. And we did some things that we shouldn't have done, and we over egged all of that. But but in terms of how the Americans felt about the values that we stand for and and not tolerating being attacked by nihilists. They just wanted to tear everything down. That made me really proud, absolutely.

• 20:38Patrick Bet-David?

  So, you know, you said you said divided, where we are today as a nation being divided. This is this is the world you've been in since, like you said, 98, right? You've been doing this 27 years. How do we get there? Because like you said, in 9/11, when 9/11 happened, I was working on Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. I had just started a day before, Clendale, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. 9/11 happens, you're seeing. In New York, no one cared if you're Republican, Democrat, independent, white, black, Hispanic, Puerto Rican. Look, man, where's your kid? Let's go look for him. Where's your daughter? Let's go look for her. Where's your husband? Where's your wife? Where's your this? It was a whole different thing, right? What's gotten it to be where it's at today? And do you see us going back to being united again?

• 21:23Speaker 04

  Not soon. I mean, honestly, not soon. But I'm an optimist. I think it's incredible that we're here. So, of course, it's possible. I think there are three big things that have happened. Um, one is, uh, class division and mobility have become a lot harder in the US. So, I mean, back in the eighties and nineties, the United States had some of the greatest class mobility of any advanced industrial democracy. Today, it has some of the least. So, you can predict a person's wealth in the United States on the basis of their parents' wealth, much more than you can in other countries like in the UK, or Germany, or Japan, or South Korea. That's not the American dream, right?

• 22:07Speaker 04

  So, the fact that a lot more young Americans today are not confident that they will have the opportunities that their parents, or their grandparents, or you, or and I have had, that's one reason. I think second is identity politics. I think there was an enormous amount of immigration that came to the United States without a feeling that American leaders were caring about the people that were already here. That's particularly true on the illegal immigration side, but I think it's true generally. The Europeans have already gone through that, um, and there's now consensus in Europe around that issue. The Americans are still very divided on that issue. And then the third is algorithmic.

• 22:46Speaker 04

  The third is the breakdown in media, in our information space, talk radio, cable news, social media, and increasingly AI, so that people around the world get their information in very, very segmented and fragmented ways that tear us apart. I think that those are the three biggest reasons why the United States today feels so much more divided than it did when you and I were growing up.

• 23:13Patrick Bet-David?

  So, you're putting three is social media. You use a different word. You said, uh, what was the word you used for the last one?

• 23:20Speaker 04

  I said algorithmic.

• 23:21Patrick Bet-David?

  Algorithm.

• 23:22Speaker 04

  But, I mean, you know, even before that, I mean, you remember, when you and I were kids, the conceit of advertising is that fifty percent of advertising dollars are completely wasted. We just don't know what fifty percent. So, you're just throwing money at the wall, and you had three big networks, and everyone listened to the same networks, they got the same news. So, even before social media, when you think about how people started segmenting, when it was Lou Dobbs on CNN, you know, one of the first that really started segmenting, right? Or when it was in a Rush Limbaugh on talk radio. Um, and definitely, social media has done that, has amplified that to, in an exponential way, but this has been coming for a while now.

• 24:01Patrick Bet-David?

  So, you said something very interesting. When you said for Russia in eighty-nine USSR, when Soviets saw, "Hey, do people want the same freedom that they have?" Right? Like, when I lived in Iran, the way we got movies was bootlegged. You didn't get movies because we didn't have access to movies. They're not going to show you the movies. You're going to see the movies or whatever, you know, they were showing us there. But we'd see the movies and like, "Wow, that's what America looks like? I want the American dream. I want to have something like that." What was the mechanism or method that Russia saw what was happening to America? Where Russians revolted against their people? Because you'll hear the story about Reagan goes to, you know, meet with Gorbachev and it's like, "Hey, what can we do?"

• 24:45Patrick Bet-David?

  So, "Look at your people. They're all driving the same cars, all this. They're like, 'Look at our stuff. Look what we got going on. You got to bring this here.'" Where it was almost as if Gorbachev was open to the idea.

• 24:53Speaker 04

  He was.

• 24:54Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay.

• 24:55Speaker 04

  He was.

• 24:55Patrick Bet-David?

  So, but, so was it more the people pushing the change? Or was it more Gorbachev saying, "Hey, man, I just feel like if I want to be a better leader for my people, I think we have to open it up like they did."

• 25:07Speaker 04

  I would say, I mean, much as I want to say it was the people pushing for change, and certainly, you know, you had for years and years and years, the Americans standing tall with those captive nation parades and all of the people behind the Iron Curtain that wanted independence and wanted freedom. And we had dissidents that would get to the United States illegally, right? And they would, you know, become these incredibly inspirational stories about, you know, how much better it was in the US and how repressive it was in the Soviet Union. And definitely, like, there were a lot of big demonstrations that happened first in the Eastern Bloc countries and then in the Baltics, which, you know, had independence more recently. And then in Ukraine, and then even in places like Azerbaijan, Central Asia, right?

• 25:52Speaker 04

  You'd see it. But, you know, after that happened, Gorbachev started leading into it. When Gorbachev first became General Secretary of the Communist Party, the first things he did were not reform. The first thing he did was like the anti-alcohol campaign. He was kind of like Xi Jinping in the early days, right? He was like, "No, no, we just need, we need more control." And then when he realized that this wasn't working. That the economy was falling apart, that they were falling desperately behind the Americans and there was no way to really fix it. He decided to go full-on experimental reforms. And he did three different things, right? First, he opens the economy so that people can actually start their own businesses.

• 26:36Speaker 04

  They can experiment with cooperatives. And that was perestroika, that was restructuring. And then, he created openness in the information space. Glasnost, right? And then he did a third thing, which was self-accounting. He devolved power to these local republics and let the Armenians have control for local Armenia and let the Azeris have control for local Armenia. It's called Zhorashot. And he did those three things simultaneously, which is incredible for the people of the former Soviet Union, but, I mean, was just giving away the keys to the kingdom in terms of the Soviets no longer had the ability to repress, to impose control in a way that, say, in Iran today, the Iranians are apt, even though the Iranian people are desperate,

• 27:21Speaker 04

  right, to have freedoms. The Iranian people are desperate to be independent from the Islamic Republic, but the military in Iran has absolutely zero willingness to give away that kind of power. Gorbachev did that.

• 27:34Patrick Bet-David?

  Well, so this is where I'm going, the reason why I'm asking this question. So, do you think, because 89, no social media. You got TV, a couple of channels you got in Iran, we had two channels. And it's both ran by the government. So, they control propaganda, what to tell you, you know, how terrible America is and the evil empire and all this other stuff.

• 27:55Speaker 04

  But you had Voice of America that they were able to get.

• 27:58Patrick Bet-David?

  We couldn't get it. We only had the two channels, right, that we could get in Iran. But today, you got social media, right? So, when you're seeing social media where kids have access to it in different parts of the world, and some countries are not happy about the fact that they have, you know, some, you know, social media platforms are available there. Do you think that's maybe the reason why some countries are just sitting there saying, you've seen what happened with Trump in 2016 and him coming out with, you know, the campaign that he had and was successful, him beating a Hillary Clinton type of a caliber person, which was, this is not gonna happen, this is David versus Goliath. Do you think this is why you're seeing a lot of Milays? Do you think this is why you're seeing the Orban?

• 28:42Patrick Bet-David?

  Do you think this is why you're seeing Maloney? Do you think this is why you're seeing folks that are kinda seeing what's happened in America where other countries' citizens are like, look, I kinda want that, that makes sense to me, these other ideas are not making sense to me. So it's harder for the establishment today to keep control because of social media versus what it was in 89?

• 29:01Speaker 04

  Oh, absolutely. I think that Bolsonaro doesn't win in Brazil in the previous cycle if it's not for Facebook. I think that a lot of these leaders, that these populist anti-establishment leaders, many on the right, some on the left. I mean, you look at AMLO and now Shane Baum in Mexico, same basic playbook, right? Which is, the establishment is corrupt and entrenched, there's a deep state, they don't care about you, we're gonna do something completely different. That's how they win. And I think that social media and the ability to communicate directly with the people with comparatively limited amount of funds available is a completely, it's a game changer for,

• 29:46Speaker 04

  and it undermines the establishment in a lot of these places.

• 29:49Patrick Bet-David?

  So who, so the establishment, if we go through themselves, like there's a, and I wanna get your thoughts on this here, where the concern is. One of the things that Trump did, you saw Jim Acosta just got fired, whatever you wanna call him, stepping away from CNN.

• 30:03Speaker 04

  Booted to midnight, yeah, whatever.

• 30:05Patrick Bet-David?

  Whatever you wanna call it. It's a way of saying, look, if you're gonna quit, we're okay with it, what do you wanna do, go ahead, we don't have to pay the severance and all this other stuff, so he walks, okay? But he's the OG guy with fake news, right? Your fake news, your fake news, and then Trump started saying, fake news, fake news, fake news, fake news, and then, oh shit, he exposed...

• 30:25Patrick Bet-David?

  A company Ted Turner started that was a very successful company, CNN. And now they're 400 million dollars down there, letting go of 200 million people, 200 employees. MSNBC now for sale, CNN now for sale. Fox, top 500 of 500 shows since I think Election Day, November 5th, have been all Fox shows. And the first one is 507, I think was somebody that was CNN, I don't know who it was. Why do you think, you know, folks who before were like, well, no, this is how you gotta think. No, I mean, you know, I gotta take this shot. No, I gotta do this. No, this is what they're telling me to do.

• 31:09Patrick Bet-David?

  The level of disruption of social media to the establishment and media, not just social media, media. What effects you think social media has played for people to kind of start saying, wait a minute, I don't believe you, you're full of shit. You just tried to play games with me. You lied. No, no, you're, you're, this is not cool what just happened here where, and RFK, I'll never forget, first time Joe Rogan had Bobby Kennedy on his podcast. He says, I thought you were a kook. I think that's the word he used. He says, I thought you were a kook before I had you on here. I'm like, who is this guy? What are you talking about? Vaccines are good for you, all this stuff is good for you. And then, you know, like, maybe, maybe he's got something interesting to talk about. Some of the stuff he's saying is kind of interesting.

• 31:54Patrick Bet-David?

  I'm interested, I'm interested, I'm interested. And then now, yesterday his hearing, one of the guys says, RFK, you know, Robert, would you consider yourself a conspiracy theorist? And he says, you know, a lot of people say that, but was I a conspiracy theorist? When you guys were told, we were all told that vaccines, if you take it, you won't be able to give the virus to another person? Did I get that wrong? How about, how about the red eye when you guys, the red dye, did I get that wrong? How about when you guys said this? He's kind of going through it, right? Do you think the chokehold, the establishment, media, you know, even our educational system had on the populace?

• 32:36Patrick Bet-David?

  They've now, Trump and others have broken and these guys don't know how to get control back of it like they used to once have.

• 32:42Speaker 04

  So, I'm, I'm a political scientist, not an epidemiologist, so I, I'm not in a good position to try to debate on where RFK is and isn't right or wrong. But I will tell you more-

• 32:55Patrick Bet-David?

  That's actually not where I'm going.

• 32:56Speaker 04

  I know, I know.

• 32:57Patrick Bet-David?

  I'm not going to that.

• 32:57Speaker 04

  I understand, but I'm saying more, but more broadly-

• 33:00Patrick Bet-David?

  Right.

• 33:00Speaker 04

  Right, in terms of whether I think the establishment media has gone way too far on a bunch of issues. You look at the, um, the COVID, um, starting, uh, with a lab leak, uh, in, in, in Wuhan, China. And, and that was something that clearly was a narrative that, um, the establishment media decided that they did not want to go ahead with. Uh, and I think they did a lot of damage to themselves as a consequence of that, as the Biden administration itself, in the last weeks of their presidency, did a study and came out and said, "Yeah, this looks actually very plausible to us." Well, they weren't saying that, um, you know, a couple of years ago.

• 33:40Speaker 04

  I think those sorts of things undermine, I think that when Fauci was aware that, um, you know, that, that N95 masks could be effective, but other masks weren't, and he wasn't saying that to the people because he didn't want to cause panic and there weren't enough of them. Well, that comes back and bites you in the ass, you know, when, when you're not being transparent and accountable to people. Now, more broadly, more broadly than, than the, the, the stuff around, um, disease and epidemiology, is, I think that the Democrats have gone way too far on a bunch of issues that, that do not align with where the base of the country actually is, the base of the population. I think the Republicans have done that on one big issue, right?

• 34:25Speaker 04

  For the Republicans, it was abortion. Um, we had for 50 years, Roe versus Wade, call it settled law, call it unsettled law, it was very messy. Right, and it made nobody completely happy, but it happened to reflect where the average American was on abortion. And therefore, it was a pretty good compromise. And when a whole bunch of Republicans decided that they were going to push and push and push the bounds, they ended up losing in a lot of different places, right? And Trump and Vance worked really hard to pull that back over the last campaign and say, hey, hey, hey, we're not trying to like do a national abortion ban and stuff like that. Well, the Democrats got over their skis on every identity issue, right?

• 35:09Speaker 04

  They went way, way farther than the average American was willing to tolerate. They ended up getting completely captured by a small number of elite, well-educated progressives in urban centers, and they lost the rest of the country on those issues, on migration. They completely lost the country and decided they were going to stand for some progressive values that the average American would not tolerate. And I think that when you do that, and when the media that supports you reflects that, you lose Americans. Now, is the answer to be found on social media, given, you know, sort of the, I'll do my own research, I don't need to be credentialized, there's massive amounts of verified people

• 35:51Speaker 04

  that aren't really people, they're bots, that algorithmically you're promoting an immense amount of disinformation? No, I don't think social media is a better answer for civil society. I don't think that we will become more unified by leaning into algorithmic learning. But I do think that establishment media, mainstream media, has destroyed their credibility in the United States over the past 10 years.

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• 36:57Patrick Bet-David?

  How does the Democratic Party recover? I had Ro Khanna here.

• 37:01Speaker 04

  Just a day ago.

• 37:02Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, just a day ago. By the way, great conversation.

• 37:05Speaker 04

  I'm sure.

• 37:05Patrick Bet-David?

  We had him just a day ago. And we're sitting there talking about what policies do you have left for the average day-to-day person to agree with you that's not an extremist? What do you have left? Like, I'm actually curious. Because you used to be the party that's against war. Now it's Republicans. You used to be about, you know, hey, working Americans, rich got richer under your term, and gas prices went up under you. You used to... What part of it do they have the edge over, argument-wise? Purely argument-wise? I don't know what argument they're winning. You know, hey, no taxes on tips. That's low and middle-income earners, waiters, waitresses.

• 37:50Patrick Bet-David?

  He said that first two weeks that Kamala says that. Hey, you know, we're gonna finish the war. I just don't want people to die. The other side is causing... What argument do they have left?

• 38:04Speaker 04

  Well, if you're becoming a party that wins with wealthy Americans and loses with labor union members, loses with the working class, loses with middle class, clearly the Democrats have lost the plot on this, right? I mean, Republicans, this time around, won with average Americans.

• 38:21Patrick Bet-David?

  That's insane.

• 38:22Speaker 04

  It's... Well, it's a big difference from where they were.

• 38:25Patrick Bet-David?

  By a billionaire. By a media guy.

• 38:28Speaker 04

  Right.

• 38:28Patrick Bet-David?

  How did he connect with them? Were the average guys like, dude, that guy's gonna take care of me much more than this guy that's from Delaware. I feel like he's the one. I feel like he's gonna do a better job than Kamala Harris.

• 38:43Speaker 04

  So, two... I'm gonna have two answers for you.

• 38:45Patrick Bet-David?

  Please.

• 38:46Speaker 04

  And they're different, very different answers.

• 38:47Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay.

• 38:47Speaker 04

  One is that the Democrats really believed that democracy needed to be on the agenda, right? That this was, you know, if it was just an issues election, they weren't gonna win. They had to go after Trump because he's like, you know, gonna destroy democracy.

• 39:02Patrick Bet-David?

  Right.

• 39:02Speaker 04

  There were very few Americans that actually voted who believed that democracy was the most important issue.

• 39:07Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay.

• 39:07Speaker 04

  But of those that did, they voted more Trump than Harris.

• 39:13Speaker 04

  And isn't that fascinating? And that is something the Democrats

• 39:16Patrick Bet-David?

  How do you handle that? This is like, were you shocked?

• 39:19Speaker 04

  No, not at all.

• 39:20Patrick Bet-David?

  So you saw this coming?

• 39:21Speaker 04

  I thought Trump was gonna win, yes. But that'll be, this will be my second argument. But let's start with this one, which is, yes, Trump has done a bunch of things that do not reflect that he is someone that really cares about long-term rule of law in this country. In my view, he is not the poster child for like, great American governance standards and values, historically, I wouldn't put him in that category. But so many people in this country believe that the reason democracy is broken is not because of Trump, he's a symptom. The reason democracy is broken is because for decades, you have special interests in this country that have captured the political system, and the uniparty, and the deep state, and call it whatever you want. But the average person sees that

• 40:06Speaker 04

  the leaders don't care about them. The elites don't care about them. The political leaders, the business leaders, the media leaders, the university leaders, the whole damn lot. And so, why would they vote for Trump? Because they believe that just keeping on, keeping on, voting for the establishment time and time and time again, is gonna do more wars, and send poor kids to Afghanistan and Iraq, and god knows where else, and promote free trade that takes, they believe, jobs away from average Americans, support, you know, collective security, and sending lots of money to other countries. And they're like, well, that may be good in principle, but if you're not gonna help me, why should I support that? If it's just gonna help the top 1%, why should I support that? Like, I think globalization is good,

• 40:51Speaker 04

  but globalization is only good if your leaders also take care of you. So, I think the fact is, you have lots and lots of Americans that feel like they needed someone that was prepared to break the system. To challenge the establishment. And that has happened in lots of countries, not just in the United States. But Trump took advantage of that. And, and not just the first time, but the second time, when they knew exactly who he was. When it wasn't an experiment, when he's already gone through the impeachments and was almost assassinated and got convicted and everything else. And people said, no, no, no. Exactly, he's fighting against those guys. I want this guy. Now, there's a second reason that Trump won. And this one is a, is not an American reason. But it's really important.

• 41:36Speaker 04

  You, you've, I know you've seen how many elections we've had all around the world over the last 12 months. We have more coming in the next few months.

• 41:42Patrick Bet-David?

  That's right.

• 41:43Speaker 04

  Overwhelmingly incumbents lost. And that is mostly a hangover from the pandemic. That is, in, this was, I mean, of all the things you and I have experienced as Americans, the pandemic has been the most disruptive in our lives. Right? Every American felt that, don't care your walk of life. Um, the economy was completely disrupted. Supply chains were completely shut down. A massive amount of money, trillions and trillions of dollars were spent. And also, people didn't move. They didn't go from state to state, they didn't go from country to country. You finish the pandemic, inflation is at historically high levels. Migration is at historically high levels. Any leader that is holding the bag around the world is going to lose in that environment.

• 42:26Speaker 04

  And, and here's what's interesting, is that if you were an alien, looking down at all the elections over the last year, the US election was one of the closest. I mean, you, you would be forgiven for asking, why did Harris do so well? And, and the answer is not that she was a good candidate. The answer is that the US economy was doing comparatively better. And inflation was comparatively lower than what they had in the Europe, in Europe, for example. Or in Canada, for example. And, and that's why that election was close. That's why, despite everything we've been talking about, Trump didn't break 50%.

• 42:59Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, I mean, he, she lost seven states.

• 43:02Speaker 04

  Oh, I know.

• 43:02Patrick Bet-David?

  Seven, four, swing states. But, and, and-

• 43:05Speaker 04

  I'm just comparing it to other elections around the world.

• 43:07Patrick Bet-David?

  But then this is what it makes me think about. Rob, you know what I want to know? Of all, and maybe you, you already know the answer to this question. Of the incumbents that lost, you said majority of them lost.

• 43:16Speaker 04

  Almost all of them, yeah.

• 43:16Patrick Bet-David?

  Almost all of them.

• 43:17Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 43:17Patrick Bet-David?

  What percentage of them were liberals?

• 43:21Patrick Bet-David?

  And more democratic socialist progressive policies that were aligned with what America and Biden did. What percentage of them?

• 43:31Speaker 06

  And this is for the 2022 midterms?

• 43:33Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, no, not midterms. We're talking 2024, because in the last 20 months, it's known for the biggest election, you know, India, globally. I want to know what percentage of the incumbents were lost, had identical policies to Biden, the way they handled COVID, not the way maybe a DeSantis handled COVID.

• 43:51Speaker 04

  So, interesting point, right, is the UK was one of these elections, and the conservatives got completely hammered, and Labour came in. Um, why? Anti-incumbent. It's like whoever happens to be in power through that, it's not about the policies.

• 44:07Patrick Bet-David?

  You think so?

• 44:08Speaker 04

  Absolutely, because it was such an incredible shock, and people just said, I want these leaders out. I don't care who they are, I want them out. I mean, you know, in India, Modi, who's one of the most popular leaders of any democracy in the world, and massively underperforms his expectations and has to have a coalition government. In Japan, LDP leader, right, again, centre-right, um, it's kind of a uniparty, now has to govern in coalition. Now, there are plenty of examples on the other side, too, but I think that the through, the through point here is that if you are in a position of power in that environment, it's a real democracy, and the election isn't rigged, you just got hammered. And that's, that is the reality.

• 44:50Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, did you ask Chad GBT, Rob, is that the one you asked?

• 44:52Speaker 06

  I did, that's where that information comes from.

• 44:53Patrick Bet-David?

  So it says, over 80 countries representing nearly half of the, but can you find out how many of them are, okay, that's what you're doing?

• 44:58Speaker 06

  This gave me United States again.

• 45:00Patrick Bet-David?

  I want, I want the world. So it says, over 80 countries, uh, amongst democracies, more than 80% of incumbent partners experienced a decline in support compared to previous elections with many suffering historic losses.

• 45:13Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 45:13Patrick Bet-David?

  Right?

• 45:13Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 45:13Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, but I would, I would want to know. Based on what? I understand with UK, they had a lot of weird things that they were dealing with. And I wonder how much, okay, so maybe let me go to a different question with this.

• 45:26Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 45:26Patrick Bet-David?

  Do you think, do you think if it was Biden and he doesn't step away, do you think he beats?

• 45:31Speaker 04

  Oh, God, no.

• 45:32Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, so neither one of them, so neither one of them.

• 45:35Speaker 04

  I mean, Biden gets hammered much worse.

• 45:37Patrick Bet-David?

  How about Josh Shapiro?

• 45:38Speaker 04

  I, I think that anyone in the, it would have been easier for Shapiro because at least Shapiro wasn't as much of an incumbent. I mean, Harris and Biden are responsible.

• 45:49Patrick Bet-David?

  Put them in the same camp.

• 45:49Speaker 04

  Put them in the same camp, yeah.

• 45:50Patrick Bet-David?

  How about Newsom?

• 45:52Speaker 04

  Uh, look, again, I would say if you are looking at a change election, then, you know, any, even Josh Shapiro and Newsom would be seen as largely.

• 46:02Patrick Bet-David?

  Politics and policies.

• 46:03Speaker 04

  In politics and policies, yeah.

• 46:06Patrick Bet-David?

  So, but, but even if you go to UK, how did they handle COVID? I don't know if you handled COVID the way the Sanders handled COVID.

• 46:13Speaker 04

  No.

• 46:13Patrick Bet-David?

  You know, even if you go to a lot of these, there was a, some people you can consider conservative, but they still weren't handling it the way it was like open, feel free, what do you want to do? I mean, the best state in handling COVID was probably the state of Florida, my opinion, you may disagree, my opinion, right, on what happened. No, the, the, the reason why I'm asking this, I don't know if it's all COVID related, maybe it is, maybe it's not. A lot of things happened that were just weird, like you said that earlier, they tried to really push on the identity politics a little bit too much. And they tried to.

• 46:46Speaker 04

  I'd say a lot too much.

• 46:46Patrick Bet-David?

  Cave to the one percenters who are very loud and, hey, pay attention to us, well, we're gonna do this and we're gonna, we're like, they're sitting here talking about RFK is not qualified to be the HHS Secretary of, you know. Did you forget Biden's HHS Sec, this is him, this was our, Biden's HHS Director, I mean, you know who this is, Rachel Levine, you know? We're supposed to sit here and say, he's qualified, but RFK's not? So to the average person, logic made no sense the last four years on what happened, and, and for me.

• 47:25Patrick Bet-David?

  So maybe let me go a different direction because now you're you're giving good perspectives here. Trump, does Trump win? Take Bobby that goes with Trump, take Tulsi, take Rogan.

• 47:37Speaker 04

  Both Democrats.

• 47:37Patrick Bet-David?

  Take Musk.

• 47:38Speaker 04

  Yeah, okay.

• 47:39Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay?

• 47:39Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 47:41Patrick Bet-David?

  With which one of them does he not win?

• 47:44Speaker 04

  As a...

• 47:45Patrick Bet-David?

  So, say that Musk doesn't get behind him and puts a quarter of a billion dollars and go to Pennsylvania to campaign for the days that he did and does the Twitter spaces that gets a billion views.

• 47:55Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 47:56Patrick Bet-David?

  Say Tulsi doesn't go to Trump.

• 47:57Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 47:58Patrick Bet-David?

  Say Bobby doesn't come out and walk out. Say, you know, uh, uh, who's the other one I'm missing? I'm missing one. Tulsi, Bobby, Elon Musk. Say Musk is with which...

• 48:08Speaker 04

  And you said Rogan, yeah, of course.

• 48:09Patrick Bet-David?

  With Rogan, right.

• 48:10Speaker 04

  Yeah, yeah.

• 48:11Patrick Bet-David?

  Which would which one of them would he have still won?

• 48:13Speaker 04

  I, look, I, I think that, again, the fact that we had, and it's still going on, I mean, the Germans just had their government implode, right? Um, and Canada just had Trudeau implode. I mean, we are seeing across the board that this is a horrible time to be an existing leader and be attached to whatever it is that's happening. Attached to this part of the economic cycle, this part of the migration cycle, this part of the information cycle that goes with that. So, I mean, my view was that Trump was not a prohibitive favorite, but a fairly strong favorite, um, irrespective of each of those individual components. Like,

• 48:57Speaker 04

  it was gonna be a fairly Herculean task for the Democrats to hold power for another four years after that, given where inflation was, given where migration was, and how they weren't able to handle either of those things. Gaza was also an issue, right? Because there were a lot of people that didn't turn for Trump, but didn't vote at all. They lost a fair number of young progressives because they were seen as too close.

• 49:25Patrick Bet-David?

  Free Palestine community.

• 49:26Speaker 04

  Absolutely. That hurt them, right?

• 49:27Patrick Bet-David?

  Of course.

• 49:28Speaker 04

  So, yeah, I mean, I, do I think that it matters that Elon threw $250 million and actually targeted it well and set... Seven swing states, yeah, I think that matters. Do I think RFK helped with people that might otherwise not have shown up? Yeah, I think that matters. All those things matter.

• 49:42Patrick Bet-David?

  But you're saying without them, he would have still won.

• 49:44Speaker 04

  I, I think I still would have expected very close race. But I thought Trump was gonna win this race.

• 49:49Patrick Bet-David?

  You, so Bobby doesn't come out, Tulsi, Elon, Rogan, none of these guys come out, you're saying he still wins without him?

• 49:56Speaker 04

  I do. I absolutely do.

• 49:57Patrick Bet-David?

  Well, that's, so then, then, okay. Case study wise, the, the part I'm going with is the following. Here's what I'm trying to see if it happened or not. Okay? I'm, I'm trying to

• 50:11Patrick Bet-David?

  really put myself in a place to believe what you're saying is the reason why that happened. Is to say, nobody was gonna win. It could have been anybody as president, and even if, let's just say, let's completely change it up. Let's say somehow, some way, 2020, Trump steps out. And let's say DeSantis became president in 2020. I'm just making things up here. The Sant, you're saying even DeSantis wouldn't have won on his first term?

• 50:38Speaker 04

  I, I'm saying DeSantis in, in 2024.

• 50:42Patrick Bet-David?

  Wouldn't have won.

• 50:42Speaker 04

  Would have had a really good shot.

• 50:44Patrick Bet-David?

  No, no, no, no. Hear me out, what I'm saying. Stay with me here, what I'm saying. Okay, so Trump wins 2016.

• 50:50Speaker 04

  Yes.

• 50:50Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay. 2020 election, your COVID starts, whatever, March 10th, they shut down, you know, all this stuff's going on. Great. So, say in 2020, Trump's like, I'm so sick of this, I'm gonna go back to my regular life.

• 51:03Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 51:04Patrick Bet-David?

  And guess what? I think DeSantis done a good job, he gets behind DeSantis, and DeSantis runs for president.

• 51:09Speaker 04

  Oh, in 2020, you didn't have the same issue.

• 51:11Patrick Bet-David?

  But hang on one second. So then, say DeSantis wins.

• 51:17Patrick Bet-David?

  He's the president in 2021.

• 51:18Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 51:19Patrick Bet-David?

  It's his first term.

• 51:22Patrick Bet-David?

  He is now going to compete for his second term as an incumbent.

• 51:25Speaker 04

  Right.

• 51:26Patrick Bet-David?

  But he's gonna go against who? Kamala, Newsom, Josh and all those guys?

• 51:30Speaker 04

  Someone, yeah.

• 51:30Patrick Bet-David?

  You're saying DeSantis would have still lost?

• 51:33Speaker 04

  He would have lost. He probably would have lost. I think the anti-incumbent sentiment is overwhelming.

• 51:37Patrick Bet-David?

  I don't know about that.

• 51:38Speaker 04

  I know, I get you.

• 51:39Patrick Bet-David?

  I, I, I.

• 51:39Speaker 04

  All I'm saying is that, look.

• 51:41Patrick Bet-David?

  Well, let's debate it, because I want, I want, I want, in, tear my, tear apart my argument, because I want to really go with it and, and tell me, Pat, I still think DeSantis would have lost.

• 51:48Speaker 04

  Look, we don't know what DeSantis would have governed.

• 51:50Patrick Bet-David?

  What I'm saying to you is, well, no, let's just say DeSantis governed the way he governed the state of Florida. If DeSantis governs the way he governed the state of Florida, do you think DeSantis would have won 2024 election?

• 52:02Speaker 04

  I think he would have probably had a better shot, right? In the same way that Biden staying in is like a complete disaster because he clearly is not capable of running the country for four years, right? It's just not possible. So again, I hear you. But I think it's important. Americans need to look outside the US more than they do. There are a lot of democracies out there. They're facing a lot of the same problems. We talk about trade. We talk about migration. We talk about the media space. This is not, you talked, you asked about Facebook and social media, and you asked me about Millet. You could have asked about Boukely in El Salvador.

• 52:40Patrick Bet-David?

  Same.

• 52:41Speaker 04

  All these leaders. So you're willing to talk with me about all of these like grassroots factors that are causing things all over the world. But then when we talk about the impact that has on an election after a unique, extraordinary, global time of crisis, global time of crisis. And it turns out that that that leads to overwhelming pushback.

• 53:02Patrick Bet-David?

  May I present? Let me present it to you and tear apart the argument. So let's say in a fantasy world, Trump steps out in 2020.

• 53:11Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 53:11Patrick Bet-David?

  And he says, guys, you know what? I'm not dealing with this. I want to go spend time with my grandkids and go golf. I got 20 more years to live. I want to enjoy my life. I can't stand politics.

• 53:19Speaker 04

  Plausible.

• 53:19Patrick Bet-David?

  I'm out.

• 53:19Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 53:20Patrick Bet-David?

  DeSantis comes in, I get behind him. DeSantis wins 2021, you know, January, whatever it is. DeSantis, the president, there is no J six, okay? Okay, he wins. Let's go through which events he would have handled in a different way. Okay. So now, do you think DeSantis being a president, Trump still tweets?

• 53:42Speaker 04

  No.

• 53:43Patrick Bet-David?

  No, meaning do you think DeSantis becomes president in 2021? Do you think Trump is still going to be loud and say stuff and?

• 53:49Speaker 04

  If he's golfing, not as much.

• 53:51Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, maybe not as much, okay. Do you think the DeSantis being president, the border would have been handled the same exact way?

• 54:00Speaker 04

  No.

• 54:01Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, so stay with me here.

• 54:02Speaker 04

  That's important.

• 54:03Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, stay with me here. So I don't think the border would have been handled the same exact way.

• 54:06Speaker 04

  Yep.

• 54:07Patrick Bet-David?

  So we're in 2008, the unaccompanied alien children, UACs. In 2008, Bush's last year, we had 8,000 UACs.

• 54:22Patrick Bet-David?

  Where in 2022, we had 148,000. It's not gonna happen under, under DeSantis.

• 54:27Speaker 04

  Correct.

• 54:28Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay. So, America was sick of that. Number two.

• 54:33Patrick Bet-David?

  Do you think he would have allowed for the amount of abuse that took place for kids to not go to school and leaving kids closed and, you know, been able to control with the funding for some states that are abusing and they're not letting kids go back to school? Probably not. Okay? Probably not. On how he would have handled it because he would have probably shared similar policies that he was doing in Florida. Crossed the board nationwide.

• 54:56Speaker 04

  But the Democrats, Democrats in opposition also wouldn't have been leaning into the crazy populists, the crazy progressive stuff on identity politics to the degree that they were in the, when they have power in the White House.

• 55:08Patrick Bet-David?

  Stay on COVID. To me, stay on this COVID part, right? So now we're talking COVID and school shutdown. Okay? If they opposed him and they said, "Who the hell you think you are? Our job is to protect the kids and we're gonna be able to protect it and may have regrose. Text us if you see people that are driving in the streets because we told people to stay home if they're non-essential and da-da-da-da-da." Okay. If they opposed DeSantis and DeSantis is saying this policy, it would have backfired on the progressives still, right? Let's go to the third one. Do you think a war would have happened with Russia and Ukraine? I don't think so.

• 55:42Speaker 04

  Yes.

• 55:42Patrick Bet-David?

  Do you think, you think it would have still happened?

• 55:45Speaker 04

  Absolutely.

• 55:45Patrick Bet-David?

  Do you think Hamas and Israel still happens?

• 55:48Speaker 04

  Probably, yes.

• 55:49Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, so you're putting those two as a yes. So meaning,

• 55:51Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 55:51Patrick Bet-David?

  you're saying Putin wouldn't necessarily have the fear towards, you know, DeSantis as a president.

• 55:56Speaker 04

  Trump. Absolutely.

• 55:57Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, fair. That's fine. Let's stay there. So then the next one, progressives talking about puberty blockers for kids and the LGBTQ and the transgender, we have to make sure we do this. And a Randy Levine, what is his name?

• 56:13Speaker 04

  Rachel Levine.

• 56:14Patrick Bet-David?

  Rachel Levine?

• 56:14Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 56:15Patrick Bet-David?

  He's not gonna be in there.

• 56:16Speaker 04

  Again, less of an issue because the Democrats aren't in the White House.

• 56:20Patrick Bet-David?

  You're right. You're right. So that's exactly where I'm going with you. Because the argument I'm trying to make with you is, The incumbent wouldn't have lost here if a DeSantis was president.

• 56:32Speaker 04

  I hear you.

• 56:32Patrick Bet-David?

  Because I think it's policy based, not just because all incumbents lost. Whoever it would have been, they would have lost. I don't know if I buy that argument.

• 56:41Speaker 04

  Again, I think that inflation in the United States absolutely would have been at the same rough levels if we had DeSantis for the last four years.

• 56:49Patrick Bet-David?

  Tell me why. In what way?

• 56:50Speaker 04

  Because the reason for inflation in the US and globally is because you had these incred- first of all, because you needed to throw a lot of money in the teeth of the pandemic. That had to happen.

• 57:01Patrick Bet-David?

  Sure.

• 57:01Speaker 04

  And secondly, because you shut down global supply chain. And when it reopened, it was reopening at different times in different places. Remember, China had zero COVID for way too long. Europe was opening it sometimes and wasn't. US, different times as well. The ships aren't in the right places. You're paying massively more to get. All of that is happening. That's an enormously important issue.

• 57:21Patrick Bet-David?

  Fine.

• 57:21Speaker 04

  That's a pocketbook issue. People don't, they don't care if their wages are going up if they're paying more for eggs on a regular basis.

• 57:26Patrick Bet-David?

  No, I remember, listen, used car prices used to.

• 57:29Speaker 04

  Incredible, right?

• 57:30Patrick Bet-David?

  I couldn't believe a guy offered me to buy my, I bought my car for a hundred thousand dollars. Guy offers me a hundred and ten thousand dollars two and a half years later. I'm like, what are you talking about? He says, yeah, because the chips, whatever's going on with the chips, you know, that they, all the, you went to a watch store, you're trying to buy a watch, there are no watches out there. They're not even making watches. Like, we don't have any watch. Everything is empty. So you're right. I'm with you on that part.

• 57:49Speaker 04

  So I'm prepared to accept that if you ask me, would DeSantis have been a stronger incumbent in an environment where incumbents are getting crushed everywhere around the world? Would he have had more of a chance?

• 58:01Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 58:01Speaker 04

  Yes. But do I think he would have won? Would I bet on that, given that, I would say no.

• 58:06Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay. So you said earlier, you used the word deep state and you used one other word. I don't know what word you used before the deep state, but something around the lines of that same community. Do you, for somebody that you've spoken at World Economic Forum multiple times? You've, your New York Times bestseller, you've sat down with a lot of different people, you've been shown in many different meetings with some people that would be considered globalists, you know, some people would consider them deep state and all this stuff. Do you believe, at this phase, in 2025, with what we saw the last four years, do you believe there is such thing as a deep state or you think that's just a term that's thrown around as a fear porn word?

• 58:46Speaker 04

  Like all of these things, they resonate because the basis of the argument has some truth in it. So if you ask me, is there a deep state in the sense that there are people at the World Economic Forum, or the Council of Foreign Relations, or the Bilderberg Group, all of which I have attended, right? That are actually making, that have their hands on the levers of power, and are strategically figuring out, here is how we're going to manipulate and stay in power. No, these organizations have virtually no power in and of themselves, and they serve as networking organizations to help people get deals done. You think Klaus Schwab is a good guy? I didn't say that. I said that, that's not, that wasn't the question you asked.

• 59:29Speaker 04

  Klaus Schwab is someone I know and have known for a long time. He is not someone that I would say is a, you know, warm, fuzzy, you know, sort of, you know, classical, liberal, care about everybody in the world. He's, he, the fact is that, I wrote a book, not my latest one, but two books ago, called Us Versus Them: The Failure of Globalism. I think globalism has utterly failed in the United States and around the world. A large number of incredibly wealthy people that have bought access to power have used that to advance their own interests against the interests

• 1:00:13Speaker 04

  of people that are now saying, we're not going to tolerate that anymore. I think that's incredible, incredible injustice. So I, I'm not a globalist. I believe in globalization. Because in the last 50 years, we've managed to reduce poverty and increase a global middle class that can actually live longer. We've managed to like educate women. We've managed to urbanize. We've managed to reduce infant poverty. We've, you know, all of, we educate people. Those are all great things. Globalization is wonderful. I love the fact that people and goods and services and ideas move faster and faster around the world. And that people like you and I, our families can get the hell out of where we were and make something of ourselves. I believe in all of that.

• 1:00:55Speaker 04

  But globalism, the idea that if you can get your hands on power, you can promote these things and not care about the people in your own country, I don't accept that at all, at all. And, but my point is, because you asked me about the deep state. You didn't ask me about, like, is Klaus Schwab a good guy? The, the deep state is true.

• 1:01:16Speaker 04

  In so far as there are a class, a tiny class of people that don't care whether it's Democrats or Republicans, they will find a way to ensure that they are close to power and that they are using that to get outcomes that benefit them and not outcomes that are free and fair competition in a well-regulated free market. And who gets screwed? The average American gets screwed.

• 1:01:41Patrick Bet-David?

  Of course they do. Of course they do.

• 1:01:42Speaker 04

  So is that a deep state? I would argue that that is a component of, that's a kleptocratic, oligarchical system. It's a little bit like Beresovski in the early go-go Russian days. Was Beresovski and Yeltsin, were they good for the average Russian citizen after the Soviet Union collapsed? No, it was a disaster for them. They managed to take the wealth of the country and put it in their own pockets.

• 1:02:04Patrick Bet-David?

  So, so, deep state. Let's stay on that and then we'll go to class swap. So let's talk about deep state. So, so you think, yes, probably there's a deep state on both sides. Fair. Okay. So, the question that I would ask when I think about the deep state, people that don't want to give up the card, right? The control card, whatever you want to call it, right?

• 1:02:26Speaker 04

  Mark Zuckerberg.

• 1:02:28Patrick Bet-David?

  I would put the politician guys first. Let's go McConnell's, Schumers, Pelosi's, some of those guys that like to have the power and the control, right? So put them there. The story that came out with Barry Weiss and Speaker Johnson, I don't know if you saw that, where she's doing a podcast with Speaker Johnson, and he says, "For nine weeks, I'm the Speaker of the flipping House and I'm trying to get a meeting with Joe Biden." Everybody's telling me he's not good.

• 1:02:54Speaker 04

  I remember that. Yeah, yeah.

• 1:02:55Patrick Bet-David?

  He's busy. He's busy.

• 1:02:56Speaker 04

  Couldn't get the meeting. Couldn't get the meeting. They're protecting him. They're protecting him, yeah.

• 1:02:58Patrick Bet-David?

  What are you talking about? He's like, "Hey, President, you signed." I said, "I never signed that." What do you mean you didn't sign this? You signed this for, you signed this. I never signed that.

• 1:03:04Speaker 04

  Look, I mean, I was at the NATO's 75th anniversary in Washington. I met with world leaders that told me in their meetings with Biden, Biden didn't recognize them. I mean, it was, it was extraordinary that Biden still was running for president at that point. It was extraordinary. Obviously, there were people around him that were doing everything possible to ensure that the actual state of his health on a day-to-day basis was obscured from the rest of the world. I completely, I accept that.

• 1:03:36Patrick Bet-David?

  Right, so, but when you have, and then he says, we're sitting in the office, and he says, who's in the room? Hakeem Jeffries, I think he said. He said Kamala Harris, and one other name. Schumer, he said, can you guys give him a few minutes to talk to the speaker? And they almost didn't want to leave.

• 1:03:53Speaker 04

  Yeah, and they did. And they left, and he spoke with Johnson directly.

• 1:03:56Patrick Bet-David?

  So, the deep state, Kai, if you sit there and you think about the deep state, again, go to a DeSantis. If DeSantis was in, and he's dealing with that, you think he's gonna be helping those guys out?

• 1:04:14Speaker 04

  Helping the Democrats?

• 1:04:15Patrick Bet-David?

  No, the deep state, whoever, you think the deep state's gonna like him? You think the deep state's gonna, you think the deep state would like a DeSantis?

• 1:04:22Speaker 04

  Absolutely.

• 1:04:23Patrick Bet-David?

  Tell me why.

• 1:04:24Speaker 04

  Well, I mean, I think about-

• 1:04:25Patrick Bet-David?

  More than they would like a Trump?

• 1:04:27Speaker 04

  More than they would like a Trump. It's interesting. Trump is more transactional and more pay-for-play. So if you're someone like Jeff Yass, he will flip on TikTok because you've given money to his campaign. So, I mean, in a way that I think DeSantis would be less overtly transactional. I think that's a fair point you make. But, I mean, if I think about how comfortable an awful lot of big donors are with all of these people. I mean, it is true that more billionaires, a larger number of billionaires, gave money to Harris than gave money to Trump. That's certainly true. But, you know, if you ask

• 1:05:09Speaker 04

  me how the American system feels broken, it's not because we're becoming a dictatorship. It's because special interests with a lot of money ensure that they pay for almost every congressional race, House and Senate, Democrat and Republican, and the presidential race. And it's $3 billion, and it takes 24 months, and it's a subversion of democracy. And the idea that that's true only of one party and not the other is insane. It's insane. So we all know that, I mean, like, no matter who comes in, you know, the people that are doing really, really well in the United States keep on keeping on.

• 1:05:44Patrick Bet-David?

  The comparison is not even close to. If you look at the money that's go goes from special interest to the left and the right, it's not even close. Have you ever looked at the numbers?

• 1:05:52Speaker 04

  I, at the total numbers?

• 1:05:53Patrick Bet-David?

  Have you seen what kind of numbers are being raised? Have you seen how much money a Trump raised versus a Biden? Have you seen how much of a Trump raised versus a Kamala? Have you seen where 1.5 billion dollars for Kamala in the span of six months disappeared? And, you know, celebrities are getting paid?

• 1:06:07Speaker 04

  I certainly saw how much more Harris was able to raise in this last cycle than Trump did. But if you look at Senate races for Democrats and Republicans across the board, I think those numbers are pretty comparable. And those are big races.

• 1:06:20Patrick Bet-David?

  I'm not, I'm not, but when you, when you, I'm talking specifically-

• 1:06:23Speaker 04

  But you're asking about DeSantis. So, I mean, I'm just saying, DeSantis raised a lot of money, right?

• 1:06:26Patrick Bet-David?

  He did, he did raise a lot of money. But I'm, I'm, I'm going back to the idea why, that, why is it that special interest groups, like, if you go to Rob, can you pull up presidential campaign contributions? Like, how much they've raised by, by president? When you see Biden's number, I mean, go to images if you could, by president.

• 1:06:48Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:06:48Patrick Bet-David?

  I don't think that's the one. There's one that shows how much each of them raised.

• 1:06:52Speaker 04

  I think Brandon may have sent it to me.

• 1:06:54Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, and, and Biden's number is astronomical on what he raised. They're not giving the money to him because they believe on how great of a speech he gives and how great he's gonna negotiate.

• 1:07:02Speaker 04

  Of course not. Again, I would compare the United States with any other advanced industrial democracy. You look at the Republicans, you look at the Democrats, and you would say, wow, the United States is so out of whack compared to every other country. You know, you, you have an election in Canada, and you're talking about raising like, you know, sort of tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars. Germany, I have friends that are running in Germany right now. These are tiny, tiny races. And you're not able to self-fund in the way you can in the United States.

• 1:07:32Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, so check this out. Watch this. Okay. Can, can you zoom in a little bit?

• 1:07:36Speaker 04

  Yes.

• 1:07:36Patrick Bet-David?

  So check this out. Eighty-four.

• 1:07:38Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:07:38Patrick Bet-David?

  Who runs in eighty-four? Okay, eighty-four is Reagan.

• 1:07:42Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:07:43Patrick Bet-David?

  Seventy-seven million versus 149.

• 1:07:45Speaker 04

  Yep.

• 1:07:45Patrick Bet-David?

  Go to eighty-eight.

• 1:07:46Speaker 04

  Hmm.

• 1:07:47Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, he's running on a second term. Of course, he's gonna raise more money because he's on a second term. Ninety-two.

• 1:07:52Speaker 04

  Yep.

• 1:07:53Patrick Bet-David?

  Bush Senior. Okay. The VP becomes a president. Ninety-six, Clinton. I think that's Clinton goes against Bush. Still, look at red, two thousand. Now go from two thousand.

• 1:08:05Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:08:06Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay. Blue, blue, look at Obama. Blue, twenty-twelve Obama. Blue, twenty-sixteen Hillary. Blue, look at that one right there. Three point one billion dollars. And then go to twenty-four, Trump against, you know, the, the number of money going to Republican candidates versus Democratic candidates.

• 1:08:26Speaker 04

  What, what's that two hundred six million? Because obviously the Republicans got a lot more money than two hundred six million.

• 1:08:31Patrick Bet-David?

  Go a little bit lower, Rob. This is statista. Okay, go and look at the top so he can see exactly what the top is. Top spending.

• 1:08:37Speaker 04

  A president.

• 1:08:38Patrick Bet-David?

  A president candidate, majority Republican from nineteen eighty-four to spending. This is spending. So when you're looking at that kind of money that's coming in, why is special interests so interested in the Democratic Party? Is it because they're bought? Is it because they'll take money and do anything for them? Why are they putting more money on the other side? See, to me, when I'm looking at this, and the reason why I went back and asked you a question earlier.

• 1:09:00Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:09:00Patrick Bet-David?

  Where I said, I had Rokana here, I'm like, what is left for you guys? Is it the fact that there's just more money coming to you? So because there's more money coming to you, it makes it seem like you guys got the policies? Or was the last four years during COVID so phenomenal because they went so aggressive on the offensive that the American people finally said, oh, I got you. No, we're not doing this anymore. You guys can give as much money as you want to her or him, I'm, I'm done. I don't care how much money you give them. I'm going this way. Okay? I, I don't believe you guys, I think all of you guys are bought on this side. You guys are for sale on this side. The moment Trump wins, Bill Gates has a three hour meeting with Trump.

• 1:09:45Patrick Bet-David?

  Zuckerbock goes over there.

• 1:09:47Speaker 04

  They all go.

• 1:09:47Patrick Bet-David?

  And they all go.

• 1:09:47Speaker 04

  They all go.

• 1:09:48Patrick Bet-David?

  But, but this is very different though.

• 1:09:49Speaker 04

  And they're all gonna donate.

• 1:09:50Patrick Bet-David?

  And, and they did. They, you know, a lot of them gave a million dollars, two million dollars for inauguration.

• 1:09:54Speaker 04

  Absolutely, yeah.

• 1:09:55Patrick Bet-David?

  So where I'm going is, you know, is this a monumental moment where the Democratic Party took a Got a black eye. The way the Republican Party got a black eye in 1960, 1964 with Barry Goldwater, where the Republicans went from having 64% of the, you know, African-American voters voting for Democrat, the other side would be Republican, it went from 64 in 1960 to 92 in 1964, and they lost the black vote until 2024.

• 1:10:29Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:10:29Patrick Bet-David?

  So, do you think this was a catastrophic event for the Democratic Party in 2024? Or no, it's just normal ebbs and flows, it goes back and forth? That's what I'm trying to see, especially for someone like you.

• 1:10:42Speaker 04

  Look, I think that the country is so much more divided. There are so many fewer votes that are up for grabs today than there were 50 years ago in the United States. I mean, at the end of the day, you're talking about a very small number of people in a very small number of districts, and otherwise, people are reliably red and they're reliably blue. It's very hard to flip most of those people, most of those places. There are a lot more independents in the United States now than there were before, but those independents reliably lean with a party or another, even if they're not a part of that party or another.

• 1:11:19Patrick Bet-David?

  That's fair, yeah.

• 1:11:19Speaker 04

  So, I think that-

• 1:11:21Speaker 00

  Your sausage McMuffin with egg didn't change, your receipt did. The sausage McMuffin with egg extra value meal includes a hash brown and a small coffee for just $5. Only at McDonald's for a limited time.

• 1:11:34Speaker 01

  Pricing participation may vary. Promotion pricing may be lower than meal pricing.

• 1:12:03Speaker 04

  What we are talking about right now is a country that is, that has most of its population that has decided that they are on Team A or Team B and the other team is an enemy. And that's a serious problem, right? Now, it was at least really good in 2024 that nobody thought the election was rigged. It was good that everyone accepts that Trump is actually the president.

• 1:12:27Patrick Bet-David?

  I don't know if I think 2025, the other side, think the other side's the enemy. I actually don't believe that right now. I believe that the last five years. I don't believe that right now. Let me, let me give you an idea of why.

• 1:12:39Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:12:39Patrick Bet-David?

  And, and I'll, you know, push back. Bezos? Go have a good meeting? Wall Street Journal this week, if you go to WSJ's YouTube channel, go to YouTube channel, they interviewed Bill Gates, I don't know if you saw that.

• 1:12:51Speaker 04

  I saw it, I saw it, yeah.

• 1:12:52Patrick Bet-David?

  12 minute interview.

• 1:12:53Speaker 04

  Said good things about Trump.

• 1:12:54Patrick Bet-David?

  He said good things about Trump? Are you, can you imagine like a world where, yeah, this was five days ago. It's actually a very good interview. I watch, I'm like, okay, good.

• 1:13:03Speaker 04

  That's very different from the average American. I mean, again, Bill Gates is, you know.

• 1:13:07Patrick Bet-David?

  No, what I'm saying to you is, for a guy like him to go to the other side, for TikTok to get kids and younger boys to go to the other side, you're supporting who? To get, you know, African-American numbers where the CNN host is watching this guy giving the stats and she's like, that can't be right. That's the numbers. Are you joking? Yes. Even Kamala Harris, the worst with African-American voters for the last four Democratic presidents. That can't be real. That's the real numbers. See, I think this was a, this was a place where, you know, Rogan said something the other day. Actually, really like what he said.

• 1:13:50Patrick Bet-David?

  He says, you know, he says, I still am not a Republican. He says, I'm still an independent. Says, there's some things I agree with with the left. There's some things I agree with with the right. But to him, he saw more common sense and sanity on Trump's side than the other side. This, this doesn't mean where, two years ago, when I'm on his podcast, episode 216, whatever it was, a year and a half ago, you know, he had no plans of having Trump on.

• 1:14:19Speaker 04

  And then he did.

• 1:14:20Patrick Bet-David?

  And Lex Friedman is like, I'll never have him on. I'll never have him on.

• 1:14:23Speaker 04

  Look, I think it's a bigger win, and, and there's no question.

• 1:14:26Patrick Bet-David?

  But I think it's a, I don't think it's a win. I don't think it's just a win. The, the part I'm trying to ask from you is, I think it's a real shift. Like, I truly, like, you know, we haven't had a third party competitor in a long time since Ross Perot.

• 1:14:38Speaker 04

  I understand.

• 1:14:39Patrick Bet-David?

  Whatever, 19 points, 20 points, whatever the number was.

• 1:14:40Speaker 04

  Right.

• 1:14:41Patrick Bet-David?

  And every year it's, well, we need an independent party. We need a third party. Okay, great. Eventually, someone's gonna say, I'm a Republican, I'm a Democrat. I think something happened right now. I really think 2020, because when I'm talking to guys right now, who are left, right, center, I, I run an insurance company and we, we got agents that are regular guys that do what they do, and so they're not rich people. These are insurance agents that are making 2, 3, 4, 5 grand, and then we got some people that make millions. But some of these guys are making 60, 50, a hundred thousand dollars. You're talking to them. It's a very different vibe I get when Trump's name comes up than the level of hate and anger they had towards him in 2018, 19, 20, 2021. They hated this guy in 2018, 19. They thought he was the Antichrist.

• 1:15:26Patrick Bet-David?

  And now they're like, look, still don't like the guy, but I don't hate him. I actually think I'm happy he's a president. It's a very different language you hear. That's the part where I'm saying, where I don't know if we're as divided today as we were two or three years ago.

• 1:15:41Speaker 04

  I hope, I look, I hope you're right. I, I, I don't see that in the United States now. I don't see that around the world right now. Um, I think that Trump's impulses, of course, are still very much about, um, finding people that are the enemy. Um, and I'm gonna win and we're gonna win together and we're gonna go after these people. Um, I think that Elon does the same thing. And not just domestically, but also around the world. I think it works. It produces algorithmically. You know, you get clicks on the basis of much stronger emotions than you do long-form nuance and engaging in civil society. And a lot of Americans are hurting. A lot of average Americans, a lot of young men in the United States don't feel like they're

• 1:16:24Speaker 04

  doing well, don't feel like people are taking care of them, and they're angry at stuff. And you know, what can you do? You go after them. Thirty thou-- talk about Guantanamo, and I'm gonna set up thirty thou-- you know, a camp for thirty thousand people. Does he need to do that? No. Can the cruelty be the point in going after folks? Yeah, it helps because they want to say, "You're responsible for my pain, and I'm gonna do something about that." So, I don't-- I think that all of these things play because there's a lot of hurt, there's a lot of feeling of isolation. There's a lot of Americans that are spending much less time with other Americans and instead are being intermediated through their phones, and I think that's a problem. And I think that MAGA has managed to create something that people can aspire and connect

• 1:17:07Speaker 04

  to when the family's broken down, and when the church is broken down, and when public schools aren't doing so well. Our economy's doing fantastically well at the macro level, but the average American, I think, is still feeling like they're hurting. So, I have a hard time seeing America not being as divided until we start fixing those issues. Those are long-term structural issues. I don't think we're getting closer on that. I also worry that we're throwing the baby out with the bathwater when the United States-- I've never seen a time-- I mean, you've been talking a lot about the US over the last fifteen, twenty minutes. I spend most of my time talking outside the US about what's happening in the rest of the world. The United Nations, the World Health Organization, all of these organizations, we created them.

• 1:17:51Speaker 04

  The United States, after World War II, the World Bank, the IMF, right? NATO, we created them with our values and our allies because we recognize that, long-term, we have a democracy, our system is messy, you go from one president to a different-- different types of ideas and policies, but that if we could create institutions where, yes, we'd be responsible, and we'd do more, maybe in some cases, in our fair share, we'd pay more, we'd be more engaged, we'd show leadership, but, long-term, we would benefit from that. But if the average American doesn't believe that they benefit from that, they're gonna say, "Screw you. We shouldn't support that anymore. We don't like the UN. We don't like the WHO. We don't like any of these organizations because you're not taking care of us."

• 1:18:29Patrick Bet-David?

  But do you know why they don't like the UN? Do you know why they don't like NATO? Do you know why they don't like World Health Organization?

• 1:18:34Speaker 04

  I do.

• 1:18:35Patrick Bet-David?

  Why?

• 1:18:35Speaker 04

  Well, I mean, there are different reasons. But the main reason they don't like them is because they feel like the United States is getting rolled by a whole bunch of countries that aren't taking care of themselves and want the Americans to pay for it.

• 1:18:48Patrick Bet-David?

  So, but is that, is that, that's a different idea than what it was when NATO first got started? Why did NATO first get started? It got started because of Russia, USSR, right?

• 1:19:02Speaker 04

  Of course.

• 1:19:04Patrick Bet-David?

  Why is NATO needed today? And so, do they need to counsel? The part with the average person, see, what Trump did is, Trump asked interesting questions that prompted everybody to go in search. He asked the questions like a business owner asks. I mean, you're, you're running a business since 1998, right?

• 1:19:24Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:19:25Patrick Bet-David?

  I don't know what your revenues, I don't know, how many, how many employees do you guys have?

• 1:19:27Speaker 04

  Two hundred fifty.

• 1:19:28Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, you got two hundred fifty employees.

• 1:19:29Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:19:30Patrick Bet-David?

  You have a board, you, you know?

• 1:19:31Speaker 04

  I own it, so, I mean, I started it.

• 1:19:32Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay. But do you have a board where you sit there and talk to people and have counsel? Or no, you don't have a board?

• 1:19:36Speaker 04

  No.

• 1:19:36Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay. So, but two hundred fifty employees. Two hundred fifty employees, it's a legitimate sized company you've got. It's not a small business. Okay. So, what do you do? Don't you sit there and say? The other day, my CTO comes up to me, he says, "Do you know we pay subscription to nine hundred different things?" I said, "What? Why? Who signed up for this?" Well, you had one employee that kept subscribing to everything. He's no longer here, so we're looking at the credit card. Let me tell you, we're learning so many different things as we're asking questions. Subscribe, subscribe, subscribe. Asking nobody. Subscribe, subscribe, subscribe. Nine hundred subscription to different things. So then I'm asking questions. What are some questions I want to ask?

• 1:20:19Patrick Bet-David?

  On which credit card were the subscriptions prompted first? Data rolls it and you'll see boom, boom, boom, boom, boom. Oh, shit.

• 1:20:30Patrick Bet-David?

  Two hundred and ninety-three came from this one employee? Which one of them were approved? Okay, maybe we approved those, but what is this? Great, how about this other person? How about that other person? Which one of these do we even know what we use for? Out of the nine hundred, we probably don't even need fifty percent of them, right? So, that person who should be these payments going through, he should approve these. That guy did it without getting the approval. Okay, we have to change the, you know, and then you change the prompts, right? Okay. What did Trump do? Trump asked questions that a CEO like you asks. Any reason why we're giving three hundred and fifty million dollars to World Health Organization with three hundred and forty million people living here while China's giving thirty-nine

• 1:21:15Patrick Bet-David?

  million, give or taking, to have one and a half billion? Very good question. Any reason why we're giving more money to NATO to protect them while we're not worried about our borders? Why aren't all these other countries giving? And they're like, oh shit, nobody's been asking, guys that start giving more money.

• 1:21:29Speaker 04

  And useful for them to be giving more money and pushing on that, absolutely.

• 1:21:32Patrick Bet-David?

  But what I'm saying is, when you're saying, we started these things as a form of imposing our values and principles, the challenge then happens is what? You're, like, even right now when Trump said, I think we buy fifty percent of TikTok and fifty percent of TikTok goes to an owner in the US and I'm gonna give you a license. I'm not a fan of that. Why? I don't want the government to own fifty percent of TikTok. Why not? I trusted under Trump. I don't trust it under who's gonna be president next. I don't trust it on two presidents from now. So even though we're creating these world economic.

• 1:22:03Speaker 04

  Well, look, and this is an important thing, is that in four years' time, Trump is not president anymore. So, I mean, as much as he can impose all sorts of ideas and will, that a lot of people are going to say, I like this. The reality is the law of the jungle, driven by Trump with all of these things, saying, you do it my way or you're in serious trouble. When that stops, and you have a different leader, Republican or Democrat, don't care, but they're not gonna have that ability. They're not. He's a unique figure in that regard.

• 1:22:30Patrick Bet-David?

  They're not gonna have that.

• 1:22:31Speaker 04

  They're not. And so, but then you don't have the same institutional have to ensure that people otherwise behave, that we're aligned with the Americans. You're going to lose something.

• 1:22:40Patrick Bet-David?

  Right.

• 1:22:41Speaker 04

  Right, that's important.

• 1:22:42Patrick Bet-David?

  It is important, but go back to what we discussed. So a lot of these organizations that may have started with the right cause have now turned into a political, you know.

• 1:22:51Patrick Bet-David?

  Abuse of their power and hey, we need more money. Yeah, let me send you more money. Let me say, don't worry about it. I got you. We'll send you more money. We'll send you more money. No, we're not sending you more money. And now, World Health Organization could potentially be shutting down. They're begging other people for money. They're like, why are we gonna do this? We're not gonna be doing this. I love that. I love that part of coming in and asking, hey, any reason why?

• 1:23:14Speaker 04

  I like asking. I don't like breaking.

• 1:23:17Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, so here's another question to ask.

• 1:23:18Speaker 04

  And that is the difference.

• 1:23:19Patrick Bet-David?

  Your 250 employees, how many then work from home?

• 1:23:22Speaker 04

  Uh, everyone is three days a week in the office.

• 1:23:25Patrick Bet-David?

  And where you base that up?

• 1:23:26Speaker 04

  New York, but that's 90 of them.

• 1:23:28Patrick Bet-David?

  And then the other guys are all over the world?

• 1:23:29Speaker 04

  Offices all over the world, yeah.

• 1:23:31Patrick Bet-David?

  So, and you're, most of them, what do they do? Are most of them doing research? Are they writing? What's their job?

• 1:23:36Speaker 04

  Yeah, probably a solid half are direct analysts in some fashion.

• 1:23:42Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay.

• 1:23:43Speaker 04

  And then you've got, you know, people, you've got tech people and you've got HR people and da-da-da-da.

• 1:23:47Patrick Bet-David?

  Do you have a system to track people's behavior that the work is being put in?

• 1:23:51Speaker 04

  Sure, of course, many.

• 1:23:51Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, perfect. So, here's another.

• 1:23:53Speaker 04

  It's a company, it's not the government.

• 1:23:54Patrick Bet-David?

  I get, brother, what I'm, like, the part that...

• 1:23:58Speaker 04

  Like, do I think the government is inefficient? Yes, I do. Do I think that we should break everything and ask questions later? No, I want us to ask questions first and then break. That's the difference. That's the difference.

• 1:24:09Patrick Bet-David?

  You're not gonna have time, because you've got two years on, they told midterms.

• 1:24:11Speaker 04

  Oh, no, my God, look, I mean, I, I think that, you wanna ask questions about Greenland? We can ask questions first. Ask them with our ally, Denmark. Don't break things first and then go and ask the questions. You're gonna damage stuff.

• 1:24:23Patrick Bet-David?

  You're talking to a guy that is, has been doing this for 78 years and it's worked.

• 1:24:28Speaker 04

  I know.

• 1:24:29Patrick Bet-David?

  Right.

• 1:24:29Speaker 04

  I know, in a different environment.

• 1:24:31Patrick Bet-David?

  We got 2 million government employees, of which only 6% come to the office every day.

• 1:24:35Speaker 04

  Horrible. I said publicly, I tweeted publicly when they said everyone's going to work on every day. I said, if Doge does nothing else, do that and it's a win.

• 1:24:43Patrick Bet-David?

  I mean, this is the kind of...

• 1:24:45Speaker 04

  I completely agree.

• 1:24:46Patrick Bet-David?

  Nowadays, more than ever, the brand you wear reflects and represents who you are. So for us, if you wear a Future Looks Bright hat or a Value Taming gear, you're telling the world, I'm optimistic, I'm excited about what's gonna be happening, but you're free... You question things, you like debate. And by the way, last year, a hundred and twenty thousand people got a piece of Future Looks Bright geared with value attainment. We have so many new things. The cuff links are here. New Future Looks Bright, this is my favorite, the green one. Just yesterday, somebody placed an order for a hundred of these. If you watch the PBD podcast, you got a bunch to choose from. White ones, black ones. If you, if you, if you smoke cigars and you come to our cigar lounge,

• 1:25:30Patrick Bet-David?

  we have this high quality lighter cutter and a holder for the cigars. We got sweaters with the value attainment logo on it. We got mugs, we got a bunch of different things. But if you believe the future looks bright, if you follow our content and what we represent with value attainment, with PBD podcast, go to vtmerch.com. And by the way, if you order right now, there's going to be a special VT gift inside just for you. So again, go to vtmerch.com, place your order. Tell the world that you believe the future looks bright. So, okay, let's go to World Economic Forum and Davos. I was invited there this year, okay? Yeah. Couldn't go. You know, we had stuff going on. Yeah. And if I were to go, I would have to have the conversation to see what it is.

• 1:26:15Patrick Bet-David?

  I'm not going to, you know, but anyways. They extended an invitation. Nice of them, fellow, he had a call with my EA and my couple of guys. It was good to go. Yeah. Klaus Schwab, I ask you, is he a good guy? I didn't say that. You said, I didn't say that, right? Is he a good guy or not?

• 1:26:35Patrick Bet-David?

  World Economic Forum, okay? Good organization, bad organization? What's the motive? You saw some of the stuff on the website. They put some stuff that's kind of suspect. You want us to do what? You're going to own nothing and be happy? Weird things that they talked about, some of the messages that comes out. Now, here's, here's, here's an issue that I know a lot about. Perfect, and I want to hear it. Why do you think a lot of people? Who maybe sided with Trump don't trust the World Economic Forum?

• 1:27:07Speaker 04

  Um, because it's a conference every year in Switzerland, not in the United States, with a lot of very wealthy and powerful people that are getting together, a lot of them are flying in on their private planes. And it's very easy to imagine that when you do that, they must be controlling the world. And, you know, all you need is to get a quick video and take something out that, you know, sort of says, um, the Great Reset, or says, "We want you to eat bugs," or whatever it is that's crazy and stupid. And that suddenly becomes the meme for what they're actually discussing. I've gone for 15 years. They have 600 employees. I think they make $400 million a year.

• 1:27:51Speaker 04

  I can assure you that no running of the world is being done by the World Economic Forum. The reason they are successful, and the reason that you should probably go, and you would find this out for yourself, and then you could tell everybody exactly what I'm now telling you, is that the most busy people in the world, for whom time is a very precious commodity, can get five weeks of work done in five days. And that is what they do, because they are able to get their bilaterals all set up with every other business leader in their sector, in related sectors, all these government leaders. They will not take a meeting unless that meeting will get something done. If I go to London, and I haven't been to London in six months, and I want to see someone,

• 1:28:34Speaker 04

  even if I have no business, they'll say, "Yeah, Ian's here. Yeah, I'll see Ian for an hour." And there might be nothing to get done in that meeting. You will not take a meeting at the World Economic Forum, because it's such a target-rich environment, unless you have something concrete that you want to get done in that meeting. So, number one, everyone is there. Number two, almost every meeting is productive. And number three, you are filling your time with people that you really want to see. For CEOs who work in finance and foreign ministers, whose time is incredibly, incredibly valuable, this is the most target-rich environment, the most productive environment they could possibly have, and that's why they go. And that's why it's successful. And everything else, and the memes that you see about what the WEF is driving in terms

• 1:29:17Speaker 04

  of some of the research papers they put out, that's, that's like window dressing that shows that they have like some stuff to talk about in content, but that's not why the WEF worked. No, zero. No, you should not at all buy that. You should not.

• 1:29:32Patrick Bet-David?

  Well, so you're saying that they cut a clip of what he's saying to eat bugs and do all this stuff? No, like-

• 1:29:40Speaker 04

  I've never eaten a bug at Dubs.

• 1:29:41Patrick Bet-David?

  I, I have. I ate it in Mexico.

• 1:29:43Speaker 04

  I have in Mexico, Quinto Neale. Is that where you went?

• 1:29:46Patrick Bet-David?

  Let me tell you.

• 1:29:47Speaker 04

  That was great. I had three courses with bugs.

• 1:29:49Patrick Bet-David?

  It was insane.

• 1:29:50Speaker 04

  It was good.

• 1:29:51Patrick Bet-David?

  I actually liked it.

• 1:29:52Speaker 04

  No, I mean, if you were eating bugs like that, you would eat bugs.

• 1:29:54Patrick Bet-David?

  If I'm gonna eat it, I'm gonna eat Mexican bugs, by choice, with the best hot sauce and all that other stuff.

• 1:29:59Speaker 04

  Were you seated at the, were you at the kitchen bar there?

• 1:30:01Patrick Bet-David?

  Listen, it was the most amazing experience.

• 1:30:04Speaker 04

  Amazing meal. Four hours.

• 1:30:06Patrick Bet-David?

  Food, everything they brought, it was ridiculous, right? But, you know, like, if I, if you see-

• 1:30:10Speaker 04

  You sound like a globalist. I don't know, I'm a little concerned, Pat.

• 1:30:13Patrick Bet-David?

  You're so funny.

• 1:30:13Speaker 04

  I swear to God.

• 1:30:14Patrick Bet-David?

  But if you see, if you, if you see a person getting up there and they give a message, and this guy's up there talking about the Great Reset and all this other stuff.

• 1:30:24Speaker 04

  I know.

• 1:30:26Patrick Bet-David?

  And he, what's his role with the World Economic Forum? Is he the director? He, he gave, I think, uh-

• 1:30:31Speaker 04

  I think he's executive chairman or something now.

• 1:30:32Patrick Bet-David?

  Wait, who's about to, Harari's about to take his position, I think. I think he's gonna pass it over to him sometime soon, right?

• 1:30:38Speaker 04

  Yuval Harari?

• 1:30:39Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 1:30:39Speaker 04

  No.

• 1:30:39Patrick Bet-David?

  No?

• 1:30:40Speaker 04

  No.

• 1:30:41Patrick Bet-David?

  Uh, maybe you haven't read this article. There was an article that said Yuval Harari, let me find this here, Klaus Schwab, uh-

• 1:30:49Speaker 00

  Your sausage McMuffin with egg didn't change, your receipt did. The sausage McMuffin with egg extra value meal includes a hash brown and a small coffee for just $5. Only at McDonald's for a limited time.

• 1:31:02Speaker 01

  Price and participation may vary. Promotion pricing may be lower than meal pricing.

• 1:31:06Speaker 02

  This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome, that's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration block, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online make sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up required. Compatibility and availability varies. 18 plus.

• 1:31:32Speaker 04

  I think, i-if that was in an article, I think it's wrong.

• 1:31:38Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, Yuval Harari is, his right-hand guy.

• 1:31:40Speaker 04

  No, he's not.

• 1:31:41Patrick Bet-David?

  Well, listen, these are articles saying it's his right-hand guy.

• 1:31:44Speaker 04

  I'm telling you, it's not his right-hand guy. He wasn't even there this year.

• 1:31:46Patrick Bet-David?

  Are you his right-hand guy?

• 1:31:47Speaker 04

  Who the fuck are you talking about? Uh, his name is, uh, Berga Brenda, uh, and he's a former foreign minister in the Nordics, uh, and he's a perfectly affable, smart guy. When he was foreign minister, he was very well-respected by all of the other leaders in the region. And he's good at coordinating these meetings, and, you know. No, I mean, the, um, no, yeah, I think you misread that.

• 1:32:10Patrick Bet-David?

  I don't think I misread that.

• 1:32:11Speaker 04

  I do, because it's not showing up, man. I'm telling you, I'm looking at you right now.

• 1:32:14Patrick Bet-David?

  I'll find it for you. I will find it for you.

• 1:32:16Speaker 04

  Yuval Harari doesn't even, like, I know him well, um, and he's, uh, not someone that's going to take over the web.

• 1:32:25Patrick Bet-David?

  Hang on, let me, I'm gonna find it for you before we wrap this up. And then you can say it's not true, or it's inaccurate, or whatever.

• 1:32:30Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:32:30Patrick Bet-David?

  But if you see Klaus Schwab.

• 1:32:32Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:32:33Patrick Bet-David?

  Getting up there and talking about, "We need a, we need a reset, great reset."

• 1:32:37Speaker 04

  Every year, they try to come up with some interesting ideas about where they think the world is or isn't going. And it's absolutely talked about, because they have a big forum.

• 1:32:49Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay.

• 1:32:49Speaker 04

  Is it talked about more than, you know, what someone would say at the UN General Assembly every year? Or at a NATO summit, or anything else? No. I mean, it's, it's, the, the fact is that the business of the web is, as I've just described it to you. But again, I understand that in an environment where people are doing their own research, there are people that are making up stuff wholesale, and they'll take a tiny clip of something and they'll make it into more than it actually is. That's, it just is not...

• 1:33:17Patrick Bet-David?

  I'm gonna play you a clip by this guy. Just, can you find one clip of him?

• 1:33:22Speaker 04

  Of Klaus?

• 1:33:22Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, of Klaus. And you tell me if this sounds normal to you.

• 1:33:26Speaker 04

  You mean his accent?

• 1:33:27Patrick Bet-David?

  Not his accent. I mean, his accent, he sounds like, uh, he sounds like, well, Kissinger had his own set of issues as well. I'm not gonna sit here and tell you Kissinger was an angel. Kissinger, uh, could be a reason why you and I are sitting here right now. Because if it wasn't for Kissinger, I may still be in Iran today. I may be in a different situation.

• 1:33:43Speaker 04

  It's possible, yeah.

• 1:33:44Patrick Bet-David?

  Because of, uh, the, the promises they made to... Help out the shop, which last minute they didn't, which I'm sure you know the history of that.

• 1:33:51Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:33:52Patrick Bet-David?

  But why, why do you think, why do you think they don't trust it? Why do you think they don't trust Klaus Schwab? Why do you think they think he's evil? Why do you think when you're, you know, the amount of when they see him as a person, you think it's just the clips that are doing that? You think he doesn't have any other motives? You think when you're-

• 1:34:09Speaker 04

  I think it's all the wealthy people showing up in a mountain in Switzerland.

• 1:34:12Patrick Bet-David?

  When you write a book, how long does it take you to write a book?

• 1:34:15Speaker 04

  A year and a half, two years.

• 1:34:16Patrick Bet-David?

  A year and a half, so when, when all of a sudden COVID happens in March of 2020, where it becomes public, how does Klaus write such a book so fast that comes out in July, four months later? I've never written a book that fast. I don't know if you remember the dates, so here's the COVID-19, the Great Reset.

• 1:34:34Speaker 04

  Again, he's got about 600 people, how many people working with him on that?

• 1:34:38Patrick Bet-David?

  I got a lot of people working for me, so here's- His book is July 9th, 2020. COVID is a thing in March. You just said it takes a year, you don't have to write a book.

• 1:34:47Speaker 04

  Terry Malory, I remember Terry. He is, no, it takes me a year and a half because I have a goddamn day job. It's really hard. I have to find time to actually do it in between everything else that I do. It's hard. People that write books for a living, of whom Terry Malory, who's the second author there, that is what he does. He's a global strategist who writes books and thought pieces for a living. And I am certain that he did a hell of a lot of lifting there. And can you get that done? And it also was a relatively short book, if I remember correctly. It was like 120 pages.

• 1:35:18Patrick Bet-David?

  280 pages.

• 1:35:19Speaker 04

  No, it was not.

• 1:35:20Patrick Bet-David?

  Print length, 280.

• 1:35:21Speaker 04

  Was it really 280?

• 1:35:22Patrick Bet-David?

  Right there. You gotta get your facts right. You're spending too much time with-

• 1:35:26Speaker 04

  Yeah. Go screw yourself, man, I swear to God. I swear to God. But the idea, I mean, if you're basing this theory on the fact that he got a book done in four months with a guy that writes books professionally for a living, I don't buy it.

• 1:35:38Patrick Bet-David?

  I can ask a question, I say that's a little weird. You don't think that's a little weird?

• 1:35:41Speaker 04

  No.

• 1:35:42Patrick Bet-David?

  Really? You don't think that's a little weird?

• 1:35:43Speaker 04

  Jesus Christ, man. No. I mean, you're a smart guy and I don't-

• 1:35:47Patrick Bet-David?

  I am a smart guy and I ask questions.

• 1:35:49Speaker 04

  Don't go into deep zone.

• 1:35:50Patrick Bet-David?

  Oh.

• 1:35:50Speaker 04

  Deep part of the pool on this.

• 1:35:52Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, so let me go to a different direction with this one.

• 1:35:54Speaker 04

  I'm telling you that if you actually-

• 1:35:55Patrick Bet-David?

  Ram Emanuel.

• 1:35:56Speaker 04

  If you next year, if you next year say yes to the web-

• 1:35:58Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 1:35:59Speaker 04

  And you go and spend the entire week and actually see all the meetings, you'll come away saying, yeah, that's a conference.

• 1:36:05Patrick Bet-David?

  Rahm Emanuel, you know who he is?

• 1:36:06Speaker 04

  I know him well, yeah.

• 1:36:07Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, he said never let a crisis go to waste.

• 1:36:10Speaker 04

  Yes, he did say that.

• 1:36:11Patrick Bet-David?

  Do you think they saw covid as a crisis to use? Do you think the World Economic Forum maybe saw this as an opportunity to really impose their beliefs around the world?

• 1:36:20Speaker 04

  A nonprofit organization of 600 people, most of whom last for two years and then go on and work someplace else? No!

• 1:36:26Patrick Bet-David?

  This-

• 1:36:27Speaker 04

  No! People said that about the Council on Foreign Relations. The council is like a tiny sleepy nonprofit and why and who and they're they're like they are the most bureaucratic organization, it's so hard to get things done. And they're nice people and they're smart people, but they don't run the world. And and so the idea, now the people that run the world are the people that are worth hundreds of billions of dollars, that are directly in meetings with world leaders where they can actually take real advantage of those meetings because they can put cash into play. Like you and I both know the currency of power in the world is about do you have capital? And the WEF does not. They don't. They're convenor. They're conveners of events.

• 1:37:11Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, but you're you're not a, so the insurance industry has an organization called Limra, okay?

• 1:37:17Speaker 04

  Hmm.

• 1:37:17Patrick Bet-David?

  The guy that was running it was a guy that was very, very powerful in the insurance space. He was the CEO of it, okay?

• 1:37:25Patrick Bet-David?

  What made him powerful? What made him powerful is the fact that every CEO of 40, 50, 100, 200 billion dollar insurance company went to his conference.

• 1:37:34Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:37:34Patrick Bet-David?

  Every year. You know how much power the guy had?

• 1:37:37Speaker 04

  I don't.

• 1:37:37Patrick Bet-David?

  A lot of power.

• 1:37:38Speaker 04

  I'm not in the insurance industry.

• 1:37:39Patrick Bet-David?

  Oh, it's a lot of power though.

• 1:37:40Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:37:40Patrick Bet-David?

  So if you think about, this guy is getting all of these leaders like Larry Fink, Jamie Dimon, everybody from around the world is coming to his conference.

• 1:37:49Speaker 04

  They all have industry groups that are really, really relevant for them. And if you want to talk about where they're applying and making sure that they're aligning their capital, it's in their industry groups. It's not in the WEF with everybody else. In the WEF, they're meeting with everyone so they can get business done. It is transactional, it is not strategic. Strategic are where they put money into their PACs, they put money into their industry groups and figure out what are the things that move the needle for them so that they have more access to the kind of regulations they want, the kind of taxes they want. That's where that power is being levered. No question.

• 1:38:24Patrick Bet-David?

  And the guy that hosts it? That brings everybody together.

• 1:38:28Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:38:28Patrick Bet-David?

  Who says things like the following, let me just read this quote to you.

• 1:38:31Speaker 04

  From who?

• 1:38:32Patrick Bet-David?

  This is the sweetheart of a guy Klaus. You'll own nothing and you'll be happy.

• 1:38:36Speaker 04

  I remember that, yeah.

• 1:38:37Patrick Bet-David?

  You think that's just normal?

• 1:38:38Speaker 04

  I, I thought that that was an odd quote.

• 1:38:41Patrick Bet-David?

  You think that's just odd?

• 1:38:42Speaker 04

  I do. I mean, I, do I-

• 1:38:44Patrick Bet-David?

  Odd is an understatement.

• 1:38:45Speaker 04

  Odd, odd, I mean-

• 1:38:46Patrick Bet-David?

  That brings all these, the richest people in the world-

• 1:38:49Speaker 04

  Oh my god, if I look at the people that are driving AI in the world today and what they say about the future, and so the idea that like, you know, you're gonna have digital sovereignty and people are gonna upload into the internet-

• 1:39:01Patrick Bet-David?

  The guy that's running the whole thing, that's inviting all these guys who sell you'll own nothing and be happy.

• 1:39:07Speaker 04

  Running the whole thing.

• 1:39:08Patrick Bet-David?

  That's normal?

• 1:39:09Speaker 04

  He's in charge of a conference.

• 1:39:11Patrick Bet-David?

  That everybody shows up, like he's got influence or, like for example, if a guy hosted a, hosted a conference that said, "I want the best fighters in the world to show up to my conference," who the F are you? But this guy puts it, "All the fighters show up." Why? Guy's got influence.

• 1:39:30Speaker 04

  Look, I mean, if we were to try to find individual quotes that make political leaders that you and I know look batshit crazy and only talk about those things, we could do that. We choose not to.

• 1:39:43Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 1:39:44Speaker 04

  Why, why it is that, that we've decided that we're gonna key in on this one quote?

• 1:39:49Patrick Bet-David?

  I don't think it's, I think it's the last four or five years that a lot of people started looking to seeing, when you make, I mean, he said in 2016, right?

• 1:39:56Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:39:56Patrick Bet-David?

  When he said, "You'll own nothing, you'll be happy." And a leader who says, "You can make a lot of difference," you grab them by XYZ, right? You know, when Trump said that to whatever the Bush guy, right?

• 1:40:07Speaker 04

  Yes, of course, on the, on the access Hollywood.

• 1:40:09Patrick Bet-David?

  Alright, alright, so what is that? Okay, got it. Inappropriate.

• 1:40:14Speaker 04

  Sure.

• 1:40:15Patrick Bet-David?

  Sure. Another guy says, you know, "We gotta get the, they send the worst, they send the rapists and criminals and you know, da-da-da." Oh my god, Trump just called all these, "Hey, they do, do," I mean, stuff has been said. People have some bad days. You'll know nothing, nothing and be happy is a little bit weird.

• 1:40:34Speaker 04

  It's a little bit weird. If you ask me what I think that actually reflects.

• 1:40:38Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 1:40:38Speaker 04

  Um, it reflects a, a view of a technologically driven, some would say utopian, many more would say dystopian world, when human beings are radically different than they are right now. If you ask me, if I look at where AI is driving, you know, sort of humanity, um, it's not in a place where most people in the world are gonna have a lot of control over productive forces. Labor's getting a lot weaker. Do I think people will be happy about that? No, I don't. I think people, and if they are happy, it's because they're programmed to be happy. I think that everyone says artificial general intelligence is coming. I think that computers are programming us a lot more quickly than we're programming computers.

• 1:41:22Speaker 04

  But we are affected much more as consumers and products.

• 1:41:26Patrick Bet-David?

  Right.

• 1:41:27Speaker 04

  As we engage on this stuff. I think that if we, if you put it in that context, I think you would find that what he said is much more aligned with a lot of your most advanced tech thinkers in the world today, and those are places that we should be pushing back against.

• 1:41:43Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, maybe let me show you highlight reel of Klaus Schwab being Tony Robbins here. Rob, if you got a clip, do you have something you want to show us?

• 1:41:48Speaker 04

  Sure.

• 1:41:49Patrick Bet-David?

  Here's Klaus Schwab.

• 1:41:51Speaker 05

  Yeah. It's not just happening. The change can be shaped by us. We have to prepare for a more angry world. How to prepare? Takes a necessary action to create a fair world.

• 1:42:07Speaker 05

  I see the need for a great reset. So people assume we are just going back to the good old world which we had, and everything will be normal again. This is, uh, let's say fiction. It will not happen. The change.

• 1:42:22Patrick Bet-David?

  A little weird. Some of the stuff he says, it sounds like out of a movie.

• 1:42:26Speaker 04

  Yeah, the accent, I think, definitely helps with that, too.

• 1:42:27Patrick Bet-David?

  Even some of the stuff that he's saying.

• 1:42:29Speaker 04

  I don't know, I didn't, I didn't see anything particularly exciting, honestly.

• 1:42:32Patrick Bet-David?

  You, nothing, you'll owe nothing.

• 1:42:34Speaker 04

  Exciting?

• 1:42:34Patrick Bet-David?

  No, nothing.

• 1:42:35Speaker 04

  Look, the thing about me, you've, you said you've followed me for a while. I mean, look, I may be a kid from Chelsea, I'm authentic. I will tell you what I think.

• 1:42:43Patrick Bet-David?

  I'm actually really enjoying the conversation with you, so it's not, yeah.

• 1:42:45Speaker 04

  So, I mean, you know, some places you and I clearly agree, um, some places, um, you and I, uh, have less, um, let's put it this way. I have less knowledge about a lot of the domestic stuff that you're talking about. I have a lot more knowledge on the international stuff. So if we don't agree, I think it's mostly because.

• 1:43:00Patrick Bet-David?

  Let's talk tariffs, because you, tariff is something you do, you do talk about, right? Because let's talk tariffs. So, uh, the topic of tariff became, um, hot, I think, the last three months of the election. It's always been talked about, but it's kind of like, well, I think tariff is the, you know, uh, uh, best word in the dictionary. After love and after God and after religion, it's gotta be tariff, right? He's kind of giving a message.

• 1:43:23Speaker 04

  And he's been saying that for decades.

• 1:43:25Patrick Bet-David?

  He's been saying it for decades, but it's, it's, it became hot the last 90 days, where there's like, well, if we do this, if we do that. What's your concern with tariffs?

• 1:43:34Speaker 04

  Well, first of all, um, the US, you look at the place that tariffs have caused the biggest conversations over the last 10 years. It's been China, and Biden and Trump's policies on China have been virtually identical on this issue. Right? I mean, Biden didn't take any of those tariffs off.

• 1:43:52Patrick Bet-David?

  Sure.

• 1:43:52Speaker 04

  Um, he actually added export controls. There is a move towards a decoupling of the global economy. From the US and China that had very integrated supply chains to increasingly less integrated supply chains. Is that good, bad, or indifferent? There are some ways where it's good, because, um, you have more control over, you know, you aren't going to be as vulnerable to political intervention stopping you from having stuff. Um, we're finally starting to move some of our semiconductors away from Taiwan. That was a huge mistake the Americans made over the past 30 years. In the same way that the Germans made a huge mistake allowing their energy to come from Russia. And by the way, some of the Europeans are now talking about, let's do that again. That would be another huge mistake if they were to do it. So, I, I believe that.

• 1:44:38Speaker 04

  There is a utility for national security purposes in using the strength of US economic policy, including tariffs, to help defend the interests of Americans and its allies. I also think that as the most powerful country in the world, you can use tariffs as a stick that can force countries to negotiate with you in ways that they might not otherwise. So I look at the Mexico conversation right now, and Trump willing to credibly say-

• 1:45:07Patrick Bet-David?

  Just money, you may want to lift it up and put it back up.

• 1:45:09Speaker 04

  Oh, thank you.

• 1:45:10Patrick Bet-David?

  There you go, that's good, yeah.

• 1:45:11Speaker 04

  Trump credibly saying that we're going to hit you hard will make them take fentanyl more seriously, will make them take border security in the south more seriously. He will get more from them because he is willing to use sticks for the United States, and those sticks are less dangerous if they are tariffs.

• 1:45:29Patrick Bet-David?

  You're okay with that.

• 1:45:30Speaker 04

  Yeah, I'm okay with that. I recognize that tariffs also have costs. We are in a very low tariff environment right now in the world. I think the average tariff on the average good globally is something like 3%. It's almost historic lows.

• 1:45:44Patrick Bet-David?

  2%.

• 1:45:45Speaker 04

  It's really low.

• 1:45:46Patrick Bet-David?

  We only get $80 billion in revenue from tariffs. It's not a big amount of money that comes-

• 1:45:49Speaker 04

  It's not a big amount of money. So, I mean, the fact is that moving a little bit on tariffs, if it gets you some outcomes that you want, is not going to have a massive effect-

• 1:45:56Patrick Bet-David?

  Let me ask you a question. What would happen if we went to 25 points?

• 1:45:59Speaker 04

  On everybody?

• 1:46:00Patrick Bet-David?

  Everybody.

• 1:46:01Speaker 04

  Well, there you would have a significant amount of near-term inflation, right? I mean, that would definitely happen.

• 1:46:09Patrick Bet-David?

  So, okay, so are you following-

• 1:46:11Speaker 04

  And a lot of cor- and you'd also have a significant impact on the stock market, which would come down, and corporates would take a hit that have exposure to all those markets, and so they'd have to pay costs as a basis of that. Those are the two major things that happen.

• 1:46:24Patrick Bet-David?

  Are you seeing how he's talking about lowering taxes, or getting rid of it, and, you know, have you heard about him giving the speech on taxes lately?

• 1:46:32Speaker 04

  Sure.

• 1:46:33Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, so-

• 1:46:34Speaker 04

  There have been their costs to doing that, right? Because you're no longer getting that revenue.

• 1:46:36Patrick Bet-David?

  For sure, I totally get it.

• 1:46:38Speaker 04

  I'd really like to not see the IRS get defunded, because one of the best ways that you ensure that you continue to make revenue is to make sure that people that owe taxes actually pay them and are audited. So I do think that's important.

• 1:46:50Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, but what he's trying to do is the the concept of external revenue service. You heard him talk about that.

• 1:46:56Speaker 04

  Sure, yeah, absolutely.

• 1:46:57Patrick Bet-David?

  So what what what would happen?

• 1:46:58Speaker 04

  Which we have, I mean, he'll rename the existing organization, but yes.

• 1:47:01Patrick Bet-David?

  But what would happen if we bumped it up from two points on average, two twenty five points? Hear me out here.

• 1:47:06Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:47:07Patrick Bet-David?

  And that would be, instead of eighty billion a year, that would put us at around a trillion dollars a year, a rev that's coming in, okay? That if you want to do business with us, that's the number. Now, obviously, it doesn't work that way. It's not black and white because, you know, other things could happen.

• 1:47:22Speaker 04

  Substitution effects, and they will come back and hit you with tariffs as well, and that's going to be a cost on you and all the same thing, yeah.

• 1:47:28Patrick Bet-David?

  No problem. So, but but I think at two points, it's nothing, at two points. If we were to go to twenty five and we stay at twenty five for four years, hypothetically, and then he flips and he lowers taxes on individuals, okay? On individuals that are paying taxes. How would that sit with American people? Would they sit there and say, wait a minute, you're lowering my federal income taxes? Yeah. You're raising tariffs? Yeah. Interesting. I haven't done the the charts to see how the numbers would work. Everybody's, people on the left side, they'll never work. People on the right side, it could work.

• 1:48:08Patrick Bet-David?

  What what, how do you think the average day to day worker who hears that message saying, let's collect the money that we're not collecting with these other guys unless lower the taxes would sit?

• 1:48:18Speaker 04

  I don't know how it goes for people that hear the message. But in terms of how they experience the outcomes, I can tell you that, um, people, when they get more money in their income or their taxes go down, psychologically, pocket that, that's theirs, they earned it, it's it's it's their due. When inflation goes up. They're angry about that. That's not okay, and it doesn't balance off. So inflation has a significantly greater impact psychologically on people because they're paying that. Now, to be fair, Trump is clearly very concerned about one area of inflation, which he should be, which is oil. And the reason for that is because guys in the United States that are going and filling up their car

• 1:49:02Speaker 04

  actually see the price of oil, price of gas, every week, and they see it by itself, and so they're very sensitive to that. So that helps. And if you bring down the cost of oil, and let's say, you know, so you get oil down to 60 bucks a barrel, which I think is plausible this year, and Trump is leaning into the Saudis to try to get them to pump more, and Trump is leaning into the regs to try to get, you know, sort of US drillers to do more, then you might be willing to take more inflation in other aspects, even though he'll get beaten up by the Democrats. And at the end of the day, that might be seen as a wash by the American people. So you might have more flexibility on tariffs. Now, there are some tariffs that he is talking about putting on that I think are a mistake.

• 1:49:46Speaker 04

  So for example, Mexico, you want to hit the Mexicans really hard right now? They have a government that is, they have a supermajority. They can make constitutional changes. The leader's very popular. She is oriented to do everything possible to get to a better deal. Trump will be seen as a winner. That's a smart place to use your strength. Canada, huge mistake. Why? Because Canada is heading into an election cycle. And everyone in Canada has become really angry about what Trump is saying. And as a consequence, both the liberals and the conservatives have to outplay each other in who's going to be tougher to respond to Trump. So he should have waited until after the elections if he wanted to hit the Canadians with tariffs,

• 1:50:30Speaker 04

  when the US would have a lot more leverage and when the politics wouldn't be a play. Because instead, he's going to either have to back down, which makes him look weak. Or he has to keep going and the Canadians have to get into a vicious cycle and it's going to cost us a lot more and that we will see. So I absolutely believe the tariffs are an important, even an indispensable tool for the United States in foreign policy, but you want to use them strategically. You want to use them in a more, you know, sort of actual use judgment in how and when you apply them. Trump doesn't do that. Trump sees that he has a tool and he scattershot uses it everywhere at the same time and see how it goes, see how it sticks and you break things that way. So it's not that he's wrong.

• 1:51:14Speaker 04

  His political instincts have always been incredibly sharp, but his willingness to actually think through what the implications of some of those knee jerk statements are and knee jerk policies are, even as the strongest guy out there, even as a guy who's consolidated power when so many of his allies are weaker, when the American economy is stronger, when the US has a better technological position, when our military is stronger, he can still make big mistakes. And so I'd rather see him as my president, as your president, I'd rather see him minimize those mistakes.

• 1:51:44Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, so this is tariffs here, right? And you said you're not a globalist, but you believe in globalization.

• 1:51:50Speaker 04

  Yes, big difference, yes.

• 1:51:51Patrick Bet-David?

  Big difference, okay. So this amount of tariffs we used to, revenue used to come in for the US government. Obviously, it's a different world today than it was before.

• 1:51:58Speaker 04

  Yep, tiny.

• 1:51:59Patrick Bet-David?

  And tiny.

• 1:52:00Speaker 04

  Tiny.

• 1:52:01Patrick Bet-David?

  What we had before versus today.

• 1:52:02Speaker 04

  Yep.

• 1:52:03Patrick Bet-David?

  Uh, used to be eighty, ninety percent late eighteen hundreds, then it was forty, fifty percent till nineteen tens. Then we were still getting some tariff nineteen thirty, nineteen forty, and then all of a sudden nineteen forty-ish, forty-five-ish goes all the way down to nothing and we've stayed at that number, two percent.

• 1:52:22Speaker 04

  Correct.

• 1:52:23Patrick Bet-David?

  For a long time till today.

• 1:52:24Speaker 04

  Right.

• 1:52:25Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay. So who did that benefit? You were saying globalization, if everybody is doing better around the world, it's kinda good, you know, people are making money, they're taking care of themselves, stress is lower, crime's gonna be lower, you know, overreaction's gonna be lower, fine. But, don't you think for a country that's helped, when you're looking at the numbers of what the deficiency is between how much China makes with us, you know, how much they're making off of us versus us, the other way around, don't you think he has the leverage to be able to say, "Look, we're just increasing everything on everybody because people are trying to do business with US, not the other way around."

• 1:53:01Speaker 04

  Well, you gotta keep in mind that compared with the periods of time when tariffs were a lot higher, you now have global supply chains that are completely integrated. They weren't before. I mean, you look at US-Mexico, and you'll have cars with components going back and forth, sometimes thirty, forty times, with, you know, completely integrated US-Mexico supply chain before it actually gets bought by somebody. You suddenly throw a 25% tariff across the board between US and Mexico, and Mexico hits you back with that, then suddenly, like, you're literally breaking that supply chain in ways that makes absolutely no sense, given how corporations and jobs on both sides of the border have been set up for decades.

• 1:53:43Speaker 04

  So you don't wanna suddenly break that, because that's gonna cost your corporations and the workers in those corporations an awful lot. So you can't do that. You have to be careful at being more incremental, and this is what Scott Besson is saying, right, is that he understands the desire to move towards a higher tariff environment, but he wants to do it incrementally, and he wants to be squeezing, using that power to get outcomes that are more beneficial for the United States. I accept the fact that there has been free riding in a low tariff environment by a whole bunch of countries that are not necessarily providing for the public good globally what they should be. China today is a middle-income country, they're not a low-income country. They have advanced technologies, they're

• 1:54:24Speaker 04

  ahead of us in post-carbon energy. This is a country that can afford to actually change around their trade relationship with us. They can afford to uphold intellectual property and stop ripping us off. And also, a lot of American companies aren't as interested in being in China because their economy is doing so badly right now. So the Americans have more leverage in that relationship today, and should use it, absolutely. But you've gotta recognize that this is not 1925.

• 1:54:54Patrick Bet-David?

  No, I recognize that's nineteen twenty-five, but it's also not nineteen eighty, nineteen ninety-nine, two thousand where we keep doing it for everybody else and we're just kind of leaving that money on the table.

• 1:55:03Speaker 04

  So who benefited from globalization, right? There are two groups of people that benefited, that really benefit from globalization. It's the top ten percent globally, and particularly the top one and top point oh oh oh one percent, right? And then the global middle class that really benefit from globalization. And the people that didn't benefit from globalization were wealthy people from a global perspective, but in reality, middle and working classes in the United States and Europe and Canada and Japan and South Korea. Those are the people that didn't benefit. And the reason they didn't benefit is because all of the benefits that came to the wealthy were not reinvested into those countries in ways that would improve education, that would improve healthcare, that would improve social cohesion.

• 1:55:47Speaker 04

  They didn't do that, and that's why globalism has failed. Because you can't be winner-take-all in a more kleptocratic system and forget about your own fellow countrymen because they will say, "Screw you." And that's why you had Brexit, right? That's why you have all these eurosceptic movements too. This isn't just the United States. It's not like the Americans are the, you know, the ones that have uniquely gotten it wrong and everybody else is on the right side of this. This is a global phenomenon.

• 1:56:14Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, I just found where Yuval Hari was considered the brain of Klaus Schwab.

• 1:56:20Speaker 04

  Oh, that's very different than going to take over.

• 1:56:22Patrick Bet-David?

  Well, the idea was the fact that he could be his replacement. This is in the book, Technocracy: The Hard Road to World Order by Patrick Wood.

• 1:56:32Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:56:32Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, you read the book, you're thinking the guy's replacing him.

• 1:56:35Speaker 04

  No, you're not.

• 1:56:36Patrick Bet-David?

  I'm, no, you're thinking he's his guy, like he's the brain.

• 1:56:39Speaker 04

  The brain, I mean, like, he's a, he is a very smart guy.

• 1:56:42Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, but that's the premise of, so for you.

• 1:56:44Speaker 04

  So the fact that if someone, if someone uses, if someone uses your ideas and informs your, your ideas and inform him, you're gonna let your company be run by that person?

• 1:56:54Patrick Bet-David?

  If somebody calls, you know, me the brain of, let's just say, this guy's the brain. Hey, that guy could be his replacement. That's how the conversation of Yuval Hari came in this book.

• 1:57:02Speaker 04

  Okay, so I'm glad that you agree with me.

• 1:57:04Patrick Bet-David?

  No, no, it's not. I agree with you on that one. I'm telling you, that's what the discussion was about.

• 1:57:09Speaker 04

  I thought someone was saying he was about to take over the weapon. That's not credible.

• 1:57:12Patrick Bet-David?

  That one is not. You're right about that one. But the other one is, this is what prompted that conversation. But the tariff conversation.

• 1:57:18Speaker 04

  I can see that, by the way. If you go back to his book, Sapiens, I can see why Klaus would have found a lot of those ideas very attractive.

• 1:57:25Patrick Bet-David?

  Right. So going back to, and you know, you've read Sapiens, I've read Sapiens.

• 1:57:28Speaker 04

  Everyone's read Sapiens, yeah.

• 1:57:29Patrick Bet-David?

  So but going back to tariffs, okay.

• 1:57:33Patrick Bet-David?

  My brain goes to a different place. You know, there's a camp that thinks very highly of Nixon. And Nixon did this, you know, a lot of people, oh my god, you know, water, get all this up. But then if you really think about it, this guy was a revolutionary guy. Was it good getting off of gold standard? I don't know. Was it good, you know, opening up China? I don't know. Did we strengthen China? Did we benefit more from China being open in the economy to be able to get cheap labor, all that stuff? Is, did the capitalists in America benefit?

• 1:58:00Speaker 04

  Good question. That's a good question. Companies did. American companies did. Did the average American? No. No. Look at, look at middle-class income in the United States since China's opened. Flat. How have Americans, how have the average Americans, how's the average Trump voter saying that they're benefiting from China getting open? No.

• 1:58:21Patrick Bet-David?

  But that's, that's exactly where I'm going with that. And now that we were reading five years ago, made in China 2025, they're gonna be the world. Didn't happen.

• 1:58:30Speaker 04

  Didn't happen.

• 1:58:30Patrick Bet-David?

  Eight years ago, not even five years ago, eight years ago.

• 1:58:32Speaker 04

  Didn't happen.

• 1:58:33Patrick Bet-David?

  Didn't happen. Okay. So they're trying to sell themselves as they're doing very good. They have a net negative migration rate. They're losing people, leaving, right? Billionaires are trying to get away of getting their money out. They can't. It's very hard to do that.

• 1:58:45Speaker 04

  Population is shrinking massively.

• 1:58:46Patrick Bet-David?

  They got the whole, you know, the, the.

• 1:58:49Speaker 04

  Population distribution.

• 1:58:50Patrick Bet-David?

  Totally. It's terrible, horrible. The, you know, the whole one baby rule really backfired on them in a big way.

• 1:58:55Speaker 04

  Now their three doesn't matter, yeah.

• 1:58:56Patrick Bet-David?

  No, it, it really messed it up. So now, but going back to now. So maybe, maybe. Trump and his administration is trying to look at an opportunity here saying, okay. Well, you're saying we can't tariff everybody and go this way. No problem. If we continue going the way we're going right now, that shit's not working either. We're in thirty-three trillion dollars of debt. We're not doing things in a way that's proven that our system is also working if we go this route. So what if we do a massive disruption to the system? What if we do? Would it shake things up? Maybe. Would it increase people's median income? Because I sit there, I wonder, I'm like, how are people gonna buy these houses?

• 1:59:40Patrick Bet-David?

  Today, we had Byron Donalds here.

• 1:59:42Speaker 04

  You can't buy this.

• 1:59:42Patrick Bet-David?

  Byron Donalds was, you know, the, you know who he is.

• 1:59:44Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 1:59:44Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah. And he says, half the battle with homeowners insurance is the fact that houses cost so much.

• 1:59:53Patrick Bet-David?

  Salary is not really going that much higher. Houses just skyrocketed the last four years. Homeowners insurance, I don't want to have freaking homeowners insurance. I'm a homeowners insurance company. I don't want to be in California. I don't want to be in Florida.

• 2:00:07Speaker 04

  Look, I mean, so interesting because you've got inside MAGA right now, right? You have a whole bunch of people that are not saying, I want libertarianism. They're not saying, I want tiny government. They're saying, I actually want government to intervene more on my behalf. I, I want the special interests to get hurt. And I want more to stay in the United States. And I want the government to do that. And yeah, I want tariffs. Why do I want tariffs? Because I want, I would much rather have a good job that pays me money.

• 2:00:35Patrick Bet-David?

  Your interpretation is the fact that they're saying they want government to do what?

• 2:00:37Speaker 04

  Government to tariff, government to ensure industrial policy, government to force people to invest in the United States. They want government to do that. They don't want the free market globally.

• 2:00:46Patrick Bet-David?

  No, that's.

• 2:00:47Speaker 04

  Yes. Look, that's not everyone in MAGA. That's not what Elon Musk wants. But there is a core basis that is saying, we allowing free markets around the world and allowing, you know, sort of open, easy capital to move. No, we want government intervention.

• 2:01:03Patrick Bet-David?

  Or no?

• 2:01:05Speaker 04

  I think that Trump is absolutely prepared to use American power to get outcomes that he wants. Trump is, in my view, is not a libertarian, and Trump is certainly not just a free market guy. I mean, he's very transactional, and, and lord knows, I mean, he's, in the way he's built his own business. He's built it all over the world, and a whole bunch of the MAGA hats and whatnot have been made in China, and, you know, all of his products. He's not a, has no problem with globalization, he's benefited from it. He's had a lot of immigrants from all over the world that are working for, you know, sort of his places, not, not all of them.

• 2:01:45Patrick Bet-David?

  He even talked about, he had H1B visa.

• 2:01:47Speaker 04

  H1B visa, he supported that. So, I mean, where is Trump on the, you know, what I would call deep MAGA versus dark MAGA? Right? I mean, dark MAGA is the globalist wing, and deep MAGA is the populist, like, you know, industrial policy wing. I think Trump's both. Trump's both, and he has the ability to decide on any of these issues where he wants to play.

• 2:02:07Patrick Bet-David?

  You think he's both, or he knows how to dance with both?

• 2:02:09Speaker 04

  I think he actually, I think he actually is both.

• 2:02:11Patrick Bet-David?

  How do you become both?

• 2:02:13Speaker 04

  Well, I mean, look, Trump used to be a Democrat, now he's a Republican, right? I mean, because, why? He sees that that was where the opportunities were for him to actually win as president, for him to capture a much bigger piece of like the vibes, or the zeitgeist of the American people. I, I don't think that he is consistent ideologically with one side of this argument or the other. I mean, he was very close with Robert Lighthizer last time around, and now you've got his former chief of staff, who's running USTR. Lighthizer grew up in Ohio, working class, like me and Chelsea Mass, and feels like I would much rather people not have two or three televisions, but know that they're gonna have a good opportunity for themselves and their family going forward.

• 2:02:57Speaker 04

  And if that means, you know, that we're gonna break some eggs, that's okay. I think that resonates with Trump, frankly.

• 2:03:01Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, so, so it's interesting you say that, because just this week, remember the whole Deep Seek, uh, this happened four days ago.

• 2:03:07Speaker 04

  Of course, the China AI stuff.

• 2:03:09Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, so what do you think about Deep Seek, and what do you think about, you know, ChatGPT? He says, look, you know, I kinda like it. Six million dollars, I hear they build it for, and, you know, let's see what happens. I think a little bit of competition is good, where it's... It's interesting how he dances with this, right? Because that's not a tariff position.

• 2:03:27Speaker 04

  No.

• 2:03:28Patrick Bet-David?

  So it's almost like he, he is thinking steps ahead on how to use a certain leverage to negotiate both sides. He will lean on allowing, in my mind, using deep seek to possibly get the local guys who that have a lot of power, the Nvidia, the Sam Altman, the chat GPT folks to be like, hey, we

• 2:03:50Speaker 04

  Do more.

• 2:03:51Patrick Bet-David?

  It's such a very, very interesting. He said, well, you know, right now, there's a lot of people that are participating and wanting to buy TikTok. We got Larry Ellison and, and, you know, Elon, but also Microsoft.

• 2:04:02Speaker 04

  Microsoft too.

• 2:04:03Patrick Bet-David?

  You saw that, that just came out yesterday or two days ago.

• 2:04:05Speaker 04

  Two days ago, yeah.

• 2:04:09Patrick Bet-David?

  Very interesting.

• 2:04:10Speaker 04

  He was the guy on Huawei and 5G.

• 2:04:12Patrick Bet-David?

  I remember the CFOs, the daughter in Canada, Iran.

• 2:04:15Speaker 04

  That's right, Meng, I mean, and that was a real problem for the Canadians.

• 2:04:18Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 2:04:18Speaker 04

  But at the end of the day, he said, big national security problem. So I, I, I think it is a mistake to take a read on Trump and say, this guy is only tariff man. This guy also is prepared to cut a deal with anybody, right? I mean, that, one of the biggest things the mainstream media has gotten wrong about Trump is they say he's in Putin's pocket. No, he's not, but he's willing to talk to Putin in a way that Biden was not. I mean, when the guy that is telling the Europeans they need to spend more on defense, you think Putin wants that? It's exactly the opposite of what Putin wants.

• 2:04:47Patrick Bet-David?

  Are you happy with him as your president or Biden?

• 2:04:53Speaker 04

  They're, they're very, very different people, right?

• 2:04:56Patrick Bet-David?

  That's not what I'm asking.

• 2:04:57Speaker 04

  I know. Am I happier? I make more money with Trump, right? My taxes are lower, far more people use our services.

• 2:05:04Patrick Bet-David?

  Are you safer?

• 2:05:05Speaker 04

  Um, am I safer with Trump? Trump wants to end wars, right? On the other hand, uh, the likelihood that Trump can get some things, I think that the, the level of tail risks, upside and downside on Trump are far greater than they were under Biden. So the potential that you get some really big wins that were not conceivable under Biden, more likely under Trump. The potential that some really big things blow up under Trump, more likely than under Biden.

• 2:05:31Patrick Bet-David?

  Same thing they said.

• 2:05:32Speaker 04

  Geopolitically.

• 2:05:33Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, but, but you see, I think if I would ask you that question.

• 2:05:37Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 2:05:39Patrick Bet-David?

  In 2017, 18, let's just say if I asked you that question in 2016.

• 2:05:44Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 2:05:44Patrick Bet-David?

  2017, I think you would have said Obama.

• 2:05:47Speaker 04

  That's right.

• 2:05:48Patrick Bet-David?

  I don't think you would have said Trump in 2017.

• 2:05:50Speaker 04

  That's right. That's right.

• 2:05:51Patrick Bet-David?

  So, you see, that's the part.

• 2:05:52Speaker 04

  My view is different.

• 2:05:54Patrick Bet-David?

  No, no, no. What I, what I think happened is, in a private, by yourself, without any cameras being around, wink, wink, no one's watching. This is a very small podcast. We only get a couple of viewers.

• 2:06:05Speaker 04

  Yeah, I know.

• 2:06:05Patrick Bet-David?

  A week.

• 2:06:08Patrick Bet-David?

  I think.

• 2:06:08Speaker 04

  People laughing in the background here, just, you know.

• 2:06:10Patrick Bet-David?

  Those are the two people. My wife doesn't watch this. So only, but we got one other person listens to it, right?

• 2:06:14Speaker 04

  I like this. I like the self-deprecation on the pod. It's good. It's good.

• 2:06:18Patrick Bet-David?

  No, no. What I'm saying to you is the following.

• 2:06:19Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 2:06:20Patrick Bet-David?

  Is that I think, deep down inside, you're kind of happy he's the president, not Biden or Kamala. I don't know if you can say it, because I think you can upset some of your friends.

• 2:06:31Speaker 04

  No, no, it's not that.

• 2:06:32Patrick Bet-David?

  Dinner will be canceled. Just leave a couple of your friends.

• 2:06:34Speaker 04

  I can say whatever I want. I can. I really can.

• 2:06:36Patrick Bet-David?

  I want to protect you. Don't say everything you want to say.

• 2:06:38Speaker 04

  No, no, no, no, no, no.

• 2:06:40Patrick Bet-David?

  Consider your career.

• 2:06:41Speaker 04

  One of the very few things that has driven my career is the fact that I have to be able to say what I believe, because otherwise, I can't live with myself. And it's why I've never been in politics. I've never been interested. I've been asked by a bunch of folks.

• 2:06:52Patrick Bet-David?

  Life's better under Trump.

• 2:06:55Speaker 04

  You know, I, I really worry.

• 2:06:58Patrick Bet-David?

  You can't say it, can you?

• 2:06:59Speaker 04

  I can't. I can't say it because I, I.

• 2:07:03Patrick Bet-David?

  Even though you know it's right.

• 2:07:04Speaker 04

  I don't know it's right. I think that it's, there are certain things that Trump has done. Look, we, we have a ceasefire in Gaza now. That would not have happened under Kamala Harris. I completely accept that. And he was the one that pushed the Israelis.

• 2:07:18Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 2:07:18Speaker 04

  And he was the one that threw, Qatar pushed Hamas.

• 2:07:21Patrick Bet-David?

  Sure.

• 2:07:21Speaker 04

  That got done.

• 2:07:22Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 2:07:23Speaker 04

  I think it is more likely that we will get a ceasefire on Russia-Ukraine under Trump than we would have under Kamala. I think that's true. At the same time, as someone who, you asked me right at the beginning, what got me into what I do? And it was standing up for rule of law, ideals, what America stands for, someone who truly understands that America leads by example, by example. And I, I find that Trump as a human being.

• 2:07:56Speaker 04

  Does not lead by example.

• 2:07:59Patrick Bet-David?

  But Biden and Kamala do.

• 2:08:02Speaker 04

  I, I, neither of them were the people that I would have voted for ideally.

• 2:08:06Patrick Bet-David?

  But your, your only choices, these three.

• 2:08:07Speaker 04

  I, I understand. And if you ask me where you have an ability to get people around the world to say the United States is a system that I, a political system that I trust, that I stand with, that I know that I can count on reliably from one administration to the next, I, I think that the level of longer term strategic damage which Trump is doing to alliances that matter to the US, I'll give you an example. I mean, I, I just gave Trump, you know, plaudits on Gaza and on Russia, Ukraine. I happen to believe, this is a place that I disagree fundamentally

• 2:08:52Speaker 04

  with Trump. I believe in a world that's becoming more dangerous and more fragmented, that a strong cohesive Europe is very valuable, valuable for the United States. I believe that. I believe that Europe as a supranational institution supports rule of law, supports transparency, supports human rights, supports, you know, all of the things that we as Americans have stood and put our hand on our hearts since we were kids.

• 2:09:17Patrick Bet-David?

  They've lost their minds a little bit.

• 2:09:18Speaker 04

  I, yes, we have too, in the United States, in different ways.

• 2:09:22Patrick Bet-David?

  Have you been to UK to see what UK did? I mean.

• 2:09:24Speaker 04

  Oh, my God.

• 2:09:24Patrick Bet-David?

  The case study with what.

• 2:09:26Speaker 04

  Let me, let me just make the argument. By the way, UK is not in Europe right now. So.

• 2:09:29Patrick Bet-David?

  Brexit, I fully get it, but look at the case study of what they've done. Everybody else is following suit. Germany, go to different.

• 2:09:34Speaker 04

  I think that if the UK were still in Europe, they'd be in much better shape right now. Absolutely. And by the way, over 70% of Brits now agree. They recognize this was a huge mistake. Right? So the fact that Trump really believes that Europe should.

• 2:09:51Speaker 04

  Go their separate way and fragment and he wants to support all of these, you know, irredentist and eurosceptic movements, I think is bad for, it's penny wise and pound foolish, quite to use the pun. Long term, it's a problem. Leading by example, if Narendra Modi in India, Prime Minister of India, if he were to get on phone calls and meetings with Gautam Adani, the most powerful oligarch in India, and, and, and that Adani was suddenly like part of those conversations and driving policy even though he has no official position, we'd say that was a banana republic. I really have a problem with the fact that Elon is playing that role right now with Trump. That bothers me.

• 2:10:30Patrick Bet-David?

  So how do you, keep going. What do you, what do you think about that relationship? And you think it's gonna work and last?

• 2:10:35Speaker 04

  Of course.

• 2:10:36Patrick Bet-David?

  Tell me why.

• 2:10:37Speaker 04

  I do. Well, one, because Trump is really good at managing relations with people that have a lot more money than him and are very useful to him. That was true, it's, it's true with Steve Schwarzman, it's true with Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia, and I think Elon is even more useful. And I also think that Elon is very good at keeping his mouth shut when he needs to. Like with China, he's never said anything bad about Xi Jinping. He's had lots of reasons to. His business has had its challenges. He's never, he'll, he's more than happy to go after the SEC. He's more than happy to go after the British Prime Minister. He's more than happy to go after the German Chancellor, because they're not gonna hurt him. But the Chinese, they can hurt him. So he's very careful. He's very pro Communist

• 2:11:22Speaker 04

  Party, says great things about them, you know, all, all the sort of things that Zuckerberg says to Trump in the last few weeks. Trump is far more important to Elon now than Xi Jinping is. Not even close. So I think that the ability of these two men to ensure that they continue to keep that relationship very, very strong is extremely high. And everyone I know that really asks the question about, oh, they're not gonna last. Those are people that want them not to last. Well, that's not analysis, that's sales. I mean, you know, if you're just telling me what you want, you're not, it's not a useful, it's not a useful judgment on the, on the conversation. So I have a problem with that.

• 2:11:55Patrick Bet-David?

  So out of all the good things that you said about Trump has done since he's won, the border is safer, children are gonna be safer, okay? They're going and getting the criminals and sex traffickers out and arresting them. That protects kids, right?

• 2:12:15Patrick Bet-David?

  Uh, business is open. All these folks are publicly saying they're gonna put a half a trillion dollars, two hundred billion dollars, a hundred billion dollars, two trillion dollars, whatever they're saying, you know, Saudi Arabia. That's a good thing that they're putting money here that benefits the American employees, right here. Um, Russia, Ukraine, every, so you said ninety percent of things. He's done better to make your life better as your CEO of the country that you've chosen to live in. The one thing that makes you be more supportive of a Kamala and a Biden than him is because of his relationship with Musk.

• 2:12:56Speaker 04

  No, not something, I, I, that wasn't the only thing I said.

• 2:12:58Patrick Bet-David?

  What else did you say?

• 2:12:59Speaker 04

  I did, I talked about.

• 2:13:01Patrick Bet-David?

  The Euro, the Euro.

• 2:13:02Speaker 04

  I talked about Europe, I talked about rule of law. Look, I, I.

• 2:13:05Patrick Bet-David?

  Rule of law? Like, do, do, do you think rule of law, like, seriously, I mean, you, you, you. On the rule of law situation, like, what they did to him the last eighteen months, you think that was okay? You think they didn't abuse the rule of law against a candidate that's going up?

• 2:13:21Speaker 04

  Oh, the New York cases? I absolutely thought that was abusive and I said it at the time.

• 2:13:24Patrick Bet-David?

  They went to Mar-a-Lago, they. You think he's gonna do worse than what they did to him the last eighteen months? Ian, you're a very smart guy.

• 2:13:32Speaker 04

  We'll see, we'll see, I don't know. Um, I mean, I.

• 2:13:35Patrick Bet-David?

  He can't, I mean, the president pardoned him, his kids, his family.

• 2:13:39Speaker 04

  I'm deeply worried, I am deeply worried about the fact that he has taken the national, the, uh, security detail off of Mike Pompeo.

• 2:13:46Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 2:13:46Speaker 04

  And John Bolton, who the Islamic Republic, right, are trying to assassinate. I, I think that is one of the most irresponsible decisions by a president I have ever seen in my life, honestly. And why is he doing it? Because he, because he wants to show he can? Because they did bad things to him? Because they were inadequately loyal, even after they worked for him? That's bullshit. I'm sorry. So, again, I mean, I, I know you agree with that. I know you agree with that.

• 2:14:13Patrick Bet-David?

  Hear me out, though.

• 2:14:14Speaker 04

  Do you agree with that?

• 2:14:15Patrick Bet-David?

  Hear me out.

• 2:14:15Speaker 04

  Answer my question. I've asked, I've asked it all your questions. Answer that one, because I can tell that one, that troubles you.

• 2:14:21Patrick Bet-David?

  You, I'm not gonna say.

• 2:14:23Speaker 04

  You're not gonna do it.

• 2:14:23Patrick Bet-David?

  I'm, no, it's not about I'm not gonna do it. You haven't done any of it I've asked you so far.

• 2:14:26Speaker 04

  I have.

• 2:14:27Patrick Bet-David?

  Let me finish mine and I'll give you mine. I will, okay?

• 2:14:29Speaker 04

  Okay.

• 2:14:29Patrick Bet-David?

  I'll ask it, I'll give it to you. So this is the part on where I wanna go with this. Okay? Predictions.

• 2:14:35Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 2:14:35Patrick Bet-David?

  You said, I don't know. I said, how they've treated him, the government and the abuse of power the last eighteen months. You think he's gonna do worse than they did to him? You said, I don't know, we'll see. Okay.

• 2:14:44Speaker 04

  I don't know.

• 2:14:45Patrick Bet-David?

  Well, come on. I mean, but fine. But let me ask you this question. We have a news site called VT news dot AI. We hired fifteen machine learning engineers. And it's a news site that tells you which one, which stories leaning on the left. Being reported, if you look at it, that story's being reported more from the left than the right. Sports, politics, business, and there's AI component. You can ask questions. And on the bottom right of the website, we have a new initiative we're doing right now called the first one hundred days.

• 2:15:11Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 2:15:11Patrick Bet-David?

  To see how good people are at making predictions, right? Trump's first hundred days, what kind of predictions they're gonna make. You're a prediction guy.

• 2:15:18Speaker 04

  You look at my top risk.

• 2:15:19Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, I'm gonna read it. So here's your, here's your prediction, right?

• 2:15:22Speaker 04

  Right at the bottom. Trump, Trump fails. Red herring. That's where you're going, right?

• 2:15:25Patrick Bet-David?

  So, no, no, I'm not going there. I'm not going there.

• 2:15:27Speaker 04

  Darn it.

• 2:15:27Patrick Bet-David?

  Your, your prediction is top ten global risk for twenty twenty four. I'm gonna read them.

• 2:15:32Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 2:15:32Patrick Bet-David?

  For, I'm sorry, twenty twenty five, not twenty twenty four.

• 2:15:34Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 2:15:35Patrick Bet-David?

  Ian Bremmer.

• 2:15:36Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 2:15:37Patrick Bet-David?

  Legit guy, two hundred and fifty employees, smart guy, brilliant. Fifteen years old college, Tulane, Russia, eighty six, eighty nine.

• 2:15:42Speaker 04

  Crazy, right?

• 2:15:43Patrick Bet-David?

  Crazy guy, right? Armenian guy.

• 2:15:44Speaker 04

  I love him.

• 2:15:45Patrick Bet-David?

  I, I like him a lot. I just met him for the first time today, right?

• 2:15:48Speaker 04

  But you're like, he's surprisingly fun and charming.

• 2:15:50Patrick Bet-David?

  No, I actually like him. So Ian Bremmer's top risks for twenty twenty five.

• 2:15:54Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 2:15:54Patrick Bet-David?

  Maybe we'll have dinner together next year in Davos, who knows? But let me read this to you. Number one.

• 2:15:59Speaker 04

  They're gonna say the Armenians are in charge of the great reset. Can you imagine that? Uh, it's gonna be horrible.

• 2:16:05Patrick Bet-David?

  Zero world.

• 2:16:06Speaker 04

  Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 2:16:06Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, number two, rule of dawn.

• 2:16:07Speaker 04

  Rule of dawn, yeah.

• 2:16:08Patrick Bet-David?

  Number three, US-China breakdown.

• 2:16:10Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 2:16:10Patrick Bet-David?

  Number four, Trumponomics.

• 2:16:11Speaker 04

  Yeah, sure.

• 2:16:11Patrick Bet-David?

  Number five, Russia rogue, uh, uh, role. Number six, Iran on the ropes. Number seven, global economic fragmentation. Number eight, AI unbound. Number nine, ungoverned spaces. Number ten, Mexican standoff, right? Okay, cool.

• 2:16:25Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 2:16:26Speaker 00

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• 2:17:11Patrick Bet-David?

  We're playing a game that's a movie simulation. Okay. Okay. And it's 2016.

• 2:17:19Patrick Bet-David?

  And this technology we have can predict that the next nine years from 2015 to 20... Let's just go, yeah. 16 and 25, yeah. From 16 to 25. Yeah. January 20th. Yeah. It shows you everything. Trump's first term and Biden's first term. Yeah. It shows you everything except for one thing.

• 2:17:41Patrick Bet-David?

  Which of the two presidents? And who they pardon? If I was to ask you in 2026, Mr. Prediction? Yeah. Who is more likely to pardon his entire family? Oh, yeah. At that point, you would've said Trump. No, who would you have said? I would've said Trump. But who did? It was Biden. So think about what you just said. I asked you the last 18 months, they destroyed this guy's life. Yeah. And I said, do you think he's gonna do the same? You said, we'll see. But when I ask you who you think's gonna pardon his own family? He never pardoned his own family. And this guy pardons his own family? Yeah, it's interesting. It's never happened before to see something like this. Yeah. Any pardons Fauci, any pardons Milley, any pardon... I thought it was a huge mistake. Again, absolutely. But that's the part with that is as a...

• 2:18:27Patrick Bet-David?

  Something gives me, I'm not gonna ask you who you voted for, but I have a feeling you didn't vote for Trump. Yeah, in public, I didn't vote for Trump. So let's say you didn't vote for Trump, right? But the question becomes, this is why I think the Democratic Party took the biggest black eye ever. Because we were told, this is the guy that's gonna pardon himself and his own family. That's right, won't do it. And we were told, Biden said, no man is above the law. And he pardoned his entire family. Do you know what happened to the Democratic credibility to me? Right here. It got hurt. Not hurt. Completely. This is not hurt. This is the first time in history. It's shattered. It shattered and it hurt a lot of the experts who were saying there, here's what's gonna happen.

• 2:19:11Patrick Bet-David?

  Fifty-one secret intelligence signed off that there's nothing in the laptop and Russian collusion.

• 2:19:16Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 2:19:16Patrick Bet-David?

  Schiff and all this credibility was shot.

• 2:19:18Speaker 04

  I agree. I think that, again, I think the country is incredibly divided. And I think that what you are talking about is something that is very widely felt by, you know, pretty much everyone that would consider voting for Trump. And I think everyone on the Democratic side would say, they do it. This was necessary because look how bad Trump was gonna be. That's what they'll say.

• 2:19:39Patrick Bet-David?

  Hmm.

• 2:19:40Speaker 04

  That's what they'll say. Where is there space for someone to actually have a conversation that can engage with both sides? That can be balanced. And the fact is, it's a really hard thing to do. It's easier in other countries, you know? It's a reality. It's uncomfortable, but I'm not prepared to say this is, you know, all kumbaya on the Republican side.

• 2:19:59Patrick Bet-David?

  Your life is better today under this guy than the Biden or...

• 2:20:02Speaker 04

  Look, I mean, I spend most of my time, most of my time thinking about the world.

• 2:20:08Patrick Bet-David?

  Mm-hmm.

• 2:20:09Speaker 04

  I spend most of my time thinking about the eight billion people that are here. I understand that I'm American. I understand that, you know, we care about Americans first and foremost. The end of the day, as someone who was born here by stroke of luck, and I'm enormously appreciative about that. But do I consider that Americans matter fundamentally more than everybody else around the world? No, I kind of feel like we're all human beings on this little ball. And I really care about where the little ball is going. And...

• 2:20:38Patrick Bet-David?

  And I believe you're being sincere.

• 2:20:39Speaker 04

  I'm being completely sincere.

• 2:20:40Patrick Bet-David?

  No, no. What I'm saying is, we've never met. This is the first time we're talking. I believe you're being sincere.

• 2:20:44Speaker 04

  And I worry more about the future of all of us on the little ball with Trump. I do. I really do.

• 2:20:52Patrick Bet-David?

  And I'm on the complete opposite side of my level of optimism to people around the world. We ran election night, okay?

• 2:21:03Speaker 04

  Hmm.

• 2:21:03Patrick Bet-David?

  Election night, we ran the number one livestream worldwide on YouTube. That doesn't mean anything to you. I don't give you the numbers on what it is.

• 2:21:10Speaker 04

  That's pretty cool. That means something to me.

• 2:21:13Patrick Bet-David?

  No, no. What I'm saying to you is numbers wise. What does that really mean? We're in DC. We're talking to YouTube CEO and Google CEO. You know who they are and how'd you guys run the biggest live and what happened? We had 2,000 people on our hangar. You've seen the property. The hangar on the other side, right?

• 2:21:26Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 2:21:27Patrick Bet-David?

  2,000 people are there. You know where people were from? All over the world. Guy flew 24 hours from Australia to come. I said, why are you here? He says, this, you may not know this. Whatever happens here, we're gonna feel it everywhere. We're so glad Trump is in because the amount of games that was played under Biden and Kamala. We're just so happy finally another person is in. That's not imposing ridiculous ideas and policies to us. And so I'm in the mindset of-

• 2:21:57Speaker 04

  And I'm telling you, the two countries that are closest to us, that know us best, that do the most business with us, that travel the most to our country, Mexico and Canada, overwhelmingly, these are people, it's not that they're scared of Trump, it's that they really think that that things are going to be worse.

• 2:22:16Patrick Bet-David?

  Trudeau goes and has dinner with them right after having-

• 2:22:18Speaker 04

  Oh, that's horrible.

• 2:22:19Patrick Bet-David?

  Trudeau goes and has dinner with them, a week later he resigns.

• 2:22:22Speaker 04

  Don't ask me to defend Trudeau.

• 2:22:23Patrick Bet-David?

  Well, you just did.

• 2:22:24Speaker 04

  No, I didn't. When?

• 2:22:25Patrick Bet-David?

  He said, Canada.

• 2:22:26Speaker 04

  What? I said, Canada. I'm talking about Canadians.

• 2:22:28Patrick Bet-David?

  Have you seen his rate, what his rating is with his own people?

• 2:22:30Speaker 04

  Have you seen how conservatives feel about Trump and Elon?

• 2:22:33Patrick Bet-David?

  Well-

• 2:22:34Speaker 04

  E- even, even worse.

• 2:22:36Patrick Bet-David?

  I don't know about that.

• 2:22:37Speaker 04

  That is absolutely true.

• 2:22:38Patrick Bet-David?

  Listen, I, I know, I know what Pierre said. Like, I heard what Pierre said when he said, you know, Canada will never be the 51st state and he has to say that. Of course, he has to say something like-

• 2:22:47Speaker 04

  It's not just that. It's because everybody feels that way.

• 2:22:48Patrick Bet-David?

  And, and, no, but, but the, but the point is with, am I sitting there trying to really make those guys happy? No.

• 2:22:57Speaker 04

  No.

• 2:22:57Patrick Bet-David?

  We've made them happy. Their life's been better because of America, of the amount of opportunities they've had because of us. Yet, Mexico, you're sending 10 million people over, Colombia guy gets up and talks shit at 3:40 in the morning, someone's saying he was drunk and immediately later, later, it's like, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. No, I think, I think there's a guy in charge in America that his priority is- Me first, and as a guy that lived in Iran for 11 years, almost, two years Germany, and I've been here my entire life since then, I'm glad that this guy is for me over anybody else that he's willing to give money to than us taking care of ourselves first.

• 2:23:35Speaker 04

  Well, where I will tell you and where we agree strongly is I really want him to succeed.

• 2:23:39Patrick Bet-David?

  I love that.

• 2:23:40Speaker 04

  I do not want him to do that.

• 2:23:41Patrick Bet-David?

  I love that, and I respect that.

• 2:23:43Speaker 04

  That's important.

• 2:23:44Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, I respect that.

• 2:23:45Speaker 04

  And we need more people, no matter who they vote for, to be able to come together and say that, because I really wanted Biden to succeed, and I hope you did too, you know? He was your president. You wanted Biden to succeed, didn't you, when he was there?

• 2:23:57Patrick Bet-David?

  Of course I wanted.

• 2:23:58Speaker 04

  Of course you did. Of course you did. It shouldn't be hard for us to say.

• 2:24:01Patrick Bet-David?

  No.

• 2:24:02Speaker 04

  And, I mean, you know, at the end of the day, succeeding as the American president in the most powerful country in the world, in a much stronger position now than we have been in a very long time, you know, means everybody succeeds. It really should.

• 2:24:14Patrick Bet-David?

  What will need to happen for you to say life was better under Trump, what needs to happen the next year, two years, three years? I'm gonna invite you back. We're gonna go to dinner.

• 2:24:22Speaker 04

  I'll tell you.

• 2:24:23Patrick Bet-David?

  What needs to happen for the great Ian Bremmer to say, "My life changed positively under Trump." What needs to happen?

• 2:24:31Speaker 04

  Uh, if...

• 2:24:32Patrick Bet-David?

  Armenians are stubborn, so I don't know if I can...

• 2:24:34Speaker 04

  I am very stubborn, but if the world is in a more stable place, if we are able to actually build leadership, not just for Americans, but also for people wanting to follow us around the world, right? And we see that definably, right? In aligning more with like collective ideas of, we have, the world is fragmenting and falling apart. We need to come together, and that means it can't just be America first.

• 2:25:02Patrick Bet-David?

  So let me ask you, so if your parents, you're, let's just say you're, are you married? You got kids?

• 2:25:07Speaker 04

  Yeah, no kids, but I'm married, yeah.

• 2:25:08Patrick Bet-David?

  Okay, so let's just say you're married, okay? Let's say you're in a house with mom and dad, four kids, I'm just making up a number. You're in the family.

• 2:25:15Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 2:25:16Patrick Bet-David?

  What's more important? Would you rather have your family, marriage, family life, everything be good there, or bring it down two notches, but make sure everybody else's marriage is also better around the community? I mean, you got, the way...

• 2:25:28Speaker 04

  That's a very good question.

• 2:25:30Patrick Bet-David?

  The, the, I, many, many years ago...

• 2:25:32Speaker 04

  My mother would have voted for Trump.

• 2:25:35Patrick Bet-David?

  And I love your mother. I think your mother is.

• 2:25:38Speaker 04

  And Bernie Sanders.

• 2:25:39Patrick Bet-David?

  And I.

• 2:25:40Speaker 04

  And she wouldn't have.

• 2:25:40Patrick Bet-David?

  She would have voted for Bernie?

• 2:25:41Speaker 04

  Without a question. She would never vote for an establishment politician.

• 2:25:44Patrick Bet-David?

  Like a Hillary?

• 2:25:45Speaker 04

  Ever. Or Bush. Never. Never. She didn't trust those people.

• 2:25:48Patrick Bet-David?

  Wow.

• 2:25:49Speaker 04

  Because they did nothing for her kids. Nothing for her kids. They knew, she fundamentally knew that everything they said was a lie.

• 2:25:54Patrick Bet-David?

  So she would have not been for Kamala or Biden?

• 2:25:57Speaker 04

  No, I don't think she'd be for Kamala Biden. I think she would have voted for anyone on the far left or far right. I think she would have voted for RFK.

• 2:26:03Patrick Bet-David?

  Or left or far right. Wow.

• 2:26:05Speaker 04

  Yeah, I mean, she brought the National.

• 2:26:06Patrick Bet-David?

  Because of the anti.

• 2:26:06Speaker 04

  I learned how to read in part with the National Enquirer. Every week, you know?

• 2:26:10Patrick Bet-David?

  No shit.

• 2:26:11Speaker 04

  And everyone that I grew up with in the projects were like that.

• 2:26:14Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah.

• 2:26:14Speaker 04

  Of course.

• 2:26:15Patrick Bet-David?

  Well, to me, I think many, many years ago, I was a, a, a salesperson. I went from being an employee to a salesperson, started making money.

• 2:26:24Speaker 04

  Yeah.

• 2:26:24Patrick Bet-David?

  Then I became a sales leader. And when I was a sales leader, I was making a lot of money. Well, my guys were making money. I was 27, 28 years old. And I'm like,

• 2:26:34Patrick Bet-David?

  yeah, we gotta make some money and my guys gotta make some money as well. And then I, for about three years, all, all I read, any book I read was all about leadership books. So it's my obsession. It's all I read. Everything was about leadership books. And then, I realized, you know, the mindset was about making sure our guys are doing better. Then people started making money. And I said, okay, so what is the philosophy of leadership? It was two things. One is the example, okay? The example you set, how you live, you're setting an example, how you live. And then the other one is getting people to do things they typically wouldn't do on their own. That's the art of persuasion, challenging, driving, motivating, whatever you want to call that, right?

• 2:27:18Patrick Bet-David?

  I think Trump is doing his best to set the example as America's gonna lead the free world. And number two, in his own creative ways, using tariffs, challenge, threats, opportunities.

• 2:27:32Patrick Bet-David?

  He's trying to get people that would do things that they typically wouldn't do on their own, such as increasing the amount of money they're giving to NATO, such as getting their actor to get back to work. There's a, who was the president of this country? It's like, some of you guys are asking, "America's no longer sending us money." Do you know which one I'm talking about, Rob? That Brandon and I were talking about earlier with, uh, Rob, you know which one this is? And he says, "Why are you waiting for America to send us money?" Listen, we need to take care of our country. We need to do something about it. Rob, can you, Brandon, can you send this clip to Rob?

• 2:28:01Speaker 04

  Was that, was that, was that Bukele?

• 2:28:02Patrick Bet-David?

  Oh, no, this is a clip that came out yesterday that was going viral on Twitter. I want, I want to finish on this, but I want to show this. Brandon, if you can send this clip, it's such an innocent clip, but it makes so much sense.

• 2:28:16Speaker 06

  Oh, I believe I have it. Vinnie, you said Vinnie sent it.

• 2:28:18Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, Vinnie sent it.

• 2:28:19Speaker 06

  I have it.

• 2:28:20Patrick Bet-David?

  If you can go to it, I'll tell you, that's exactly the one.

• 2:28:23Speaker 06

  Kenyan president.

• 2:28:24Patrick Bet-David?

  Kenyan president, watch it.

• 2:28:25Speaker 04

  Ruto, yeah.

• 2:28:26Patrick Bet-David?

  Yeah, watch this here. Go back, watch it.

• 2:28:28Speaker 07

  People the other day crying, "Oh, I don't know, Trump has removed money. He said he's not giving us any more money." "Why are you crying? It's not your government, it's not your country."

• 2:28:45Patrick Bet-David?

  Lower audio a little bit, Rob.

• 2:28:48Patrick Bet-David?

  Watch.

• 2:28:49Speaker 07

  He has, he has no, he has no reason to, to give you anything.

• 2:28:55Speaker 07

  I mean, you don't pay taxes in America.

• 2:29:00Patrick Bet-David?

  Wow.

• 2:29:00Speaker 07

  He's appealing to his people. This is a wake-up call for you to say, "Okay, what are we going to do to help ourselves?"

• 2:29:08Patrick Bet-David?

  That's right.

• 2:29:10Speaker 07

  Instead of crying, to, to, to, to you listen, what are we going to do? What are we going to do?

• 2:29:20Patrick Bet-David?

  I think that's the mindset.

• 2:29:21Speaker 07

  To support ourselves.

• 2:29:22Patrick Bet-David?

  I think the mindset is to support ourselves. You don't pay taxes in America, he doesn't owe you nothing. I agree. So that's the part where for the last four years, it's been the other way around. We, the taxpayers, are sending money to people that were like, "Why are we sending money to these people?"

• 2:29:35Speaker 04

  Look, I completely understand why the average American would hear that. It would resonate with them. I get it. I will tell you that if you are in the top 1%, the .1%, or if you're in the government and aligned with them, and you have benefited from exploiting resources all over the world, you've benefited from us pumping carbon into the atmosphere when so many of these countries have not had a chance to globalize. And now, they're saying, "What's gonna happen to us?" Whether, you know, you're a tiny little country in Southeast Asia or Sub-Saharan Africa, the idea that the Americans don't owe anything to anybody else in the rest of the world is not something that I sit well with.

• 2:30:20Speaker 04

  I'm just telling you. I'm telling you, man. And I think that this is a conversation that I want to see more Americans actually have. It's not just long-form, but it's like looking at it from two completely different reasonable perspectives, you know?

• 2:30:32Patrick Bet-David?

  And that's why these are my favorite conversations. And I want to finish off by saying, uh, thank you for coming out

• 2:30:38Speaker 04

  Yeah, sure.

• 2:30:38Patrick Bet-David?

  to the audience. I hope you guys enjoyed this as much as, uh, I have. I can't wait for him to come back and tell us how great President Trump's been and be a spokesperson, maybe even make a long-form video being complimentary about the President. I'm looking forward to that day. Whether it'll happen or not, who knows? Maybe a little bit of inspiration from mom, you know, to come out and say my mom's, the anti-establishment side of your mom. But either way, uh, I look forward to continue this conversation with you. I got smarter. I enjoyed it. The debate was fun, and you're a class act. Very likeable. I appreciate your time.

• 2:31:19Speaker 04

  Thanks, man.

• 2:31:20Patrick Bet-David?

  Appreciate you. Take care.

• 2:31:21Speaker 04

  Good to be with you.

• 2:31:21Patrick Bet-David?

  Gang, take care, everybody. Bye-bye, bye-bye.

• 2:31:25Patrick Bet-David?

  Nowadays, more than ever, the brand you wear reflects and represents who you are. So for us, if you wear a Future Looks Bright hat or a ValueTainment gear, you're telling the world, "I'm optimistic, I'm excited about what's going to be happening." But you're a free thinker, you question things, you like debate. And by the way, last year, 120,000 people got a piece of Future Looks Bright gear with ValueTainment. We have so many new things, the cufflinks are here, new Future Looks Bright. This is my favorite, the green one. Just yesterday, somebody placed an order for 100 of these. If you watch the PBD Podcast, you got a bunch to choose from. White ones, black ones. If you, if you, if you smoke cigars and you come to our cigar lounge,

• 2:32:09Patrick Bet-David?

  we have this high-quality lighter cutter and a holder for the cigars. We got sweaters with the ValueTainment logo on it. We got mugs, we got a bunch of different things. But if you believe the future looks bright, if you follow our content and what we represent with ValueTainment, with PBD Podcast, go to VTmerch.com. And by the way, if you order right now, there's going to be a special VT gift inside just for you. So again, go to VTmerch.com, place your order, tell the world that you believe the future looks bright.

• 2:32:43Speaker 04

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