Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev on Tokenization and Prediction Markets for Everything

Last year, we had Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev on the podcast to talk to us about his company's plans to tokenize shares of private companies. The idea is that retail investors want to participate in hot names like OpenAI and SpaceX, and that tokenizing private equity would allow this to happen. Right after our episode though, a number of companies expressed frustration at the idea, saying that they were not voluntarily participating in the plan. So where do things stand now? And how is Robinhood thinking about how it will play in the red hot prediction market space? On this episode, Vlad returns to talk about where things stand, and all of the company's new efforts to give retail traders even more instruments to use. Read more:Polymarket Bets on Iran War Show Limits of Prediction Markets for Wall StreetRobinhood Adds $695 ‘Actual’ Platinum Card to Compete With Amex Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots Subscribe to the Odd Lots NewsletterJoin the conversation: discord.gg/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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• 0:00Joe Weisenthal?

  There are some market stories where you want every detail. Tracy and I have made quite a few podcasts on that basis, but sometimes you've only got 10 minutes and need to know what's moving markets and why. That's the Barclays Brief Podcast. Every week, experts from Barclays Markets and research get you up to speed on what matters and what to watch next, about the time it takes to grab a coffee. So, search Barclays Brief wherever you get your podcasts.

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• 1:27Speaker 03

  Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, radio, news.

• 1:43Joe Weisenthal?

  Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal.

• 1:48Tracy Alloway?

  And I'm Tracy Alloway.

• 1:49Joe Weisenthal?

  Tracy, I think I've mentioned it before, but the idea that I've had for podcasts in general, maybe this one one day, other podcasts, I want to do everything in two parts.

• 1:59Tracy Alloway?

  Oh, yes, yes.

• 2:00Joe Weisenthal?

  Interview the guest, because sometimes it's like, all of the questions I want to ask are only after I've talked to a guest for an hour and have some better understanding of the situation. So, when I interview the guest... Think about it for a few days, let the listeners listen to it and have their questions. And then it's like, okay, you know, we've thought about it for a few days, come back. Also, our listeners want to know about this and then have the second part of the conversation. Just like a follow up. I want to like formulate, I want to do that more.

• 2:26Tracy Alloway?

  I think it's a good idea. It's also just a flywheel of content.

• 2:29Joe Weisenthal?

  It's a flywheel of content.

• 2:30Tracy Alloway?

  It'll be never ending that way.

• 2:31Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, I think that.

• 2:32Tracy Alloway?

  It's good job security.

• 2:33Joe Weisenthal?

  Anyway, we did an episode last year that was great, but it also provoked a lot of questions. I'll just like jump right into it. So we did an episode last year with Vlad Tenev, the co-founder and CEO of Robinhood. And that was about the company's tokenization efforts. So basically his ability to create instruments that would allow users to actually trade shares, not shares, I guess, but you know, quasi equity or equity linked instruments in private companies like, you know, an open AI or something like that. And then after that came out, a bunch of people, including the company was like.

• 3:06Tracy Alloway?

  There's a lot of reaction.

• 3:07Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, they're like, what the heck? We didn't, since when did, you know, these private companies, they're like, since when the heck did like, we authorize our equity to be traded like this? There are all kinds of stuff. I didn't even like really think about that aspect of the time. So it's like, I wanted to know more.

• 3:19Tracy Alloway?

  I think there's a lot to talk about here. So, I mean, it does feel like the, I guess, the trajectory of history right now is marching towards tokenizing everything and just allowing markets in everything.

• 3:30Joe Weisenthal?

  And everything in every form, yeah.

• 3:32Tracy Alloway?

  From like, kind of quasi derivatives to one-off event bets. Like, that just feels like the trend at the moment. But at the same time, there are so many interesting questions that this actually raises, not least of which is the safety aspect and how much of our lives are just going to be watching lines, going up or down and making bets on them.

• 3:52Joe Weisenthal?

  Absolutely right. You know, like with the prediction markets and, you know, something I've been thinking about with prediction markets is you can replicate equity through that, right? Because you could just have like prediction markets on, will Tesla go up 1% today? Will it go up 2%? You could just recreate.

• 4:05Tracy Alloway?

  Stock go up or down?

• 4:06Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, you can recreate all of these instruments and all these different formats. So it definitely feels like a jump ball, especially with a very sort of liberal regulatory environment. Anyway, I'm very excited to say we're going to get a chance to do the second half of that conversation that came out last July. So we are rejoined once again by Vlad Tenev, co-founder and CEO of Robinhood. So Vlad, thanks for coming back on Odd Lots.

• 4:27Speaker 05

  I'm happy to be here again. And I think from the guest perspective, I'd also like this if there was an opportunity to replace any of my answers from part one with better answers now that I know the questions.

• 4:39Joe Weisenthal?

  You can't replace them. The first one is going to live on forever.

• 4:42Speaker 05

  But it's a very interviewer friendly format that you've created.

• 4:46Joe Weisenthal?

  That's right. Of course we did. Well, let's talk about that because like we did that episode where you talked about these tokenization efforts. And I was, I don't know why I didn't even think like other companies whose private shares are being tokenized. Are they cool with this? But apparently they weren't. What's going on with that? What happened with that? Because it does seem weird to be able to offer instruments of privately traded companies when the company is themselves like, just to be clear, this is not us.

• 5:11Speaker 05

  I think there was various degrees of disavowal. I think a lot of these companies are very concerned about their reputations. And if they don't understand something, they don't have time to dig into it. They'll just say, we had nothing to do with this, which I think is fair. I think you talk to these AI companies and they all kind of say the same thing, which is, yeah, we'd love our company to allow retail investors exposure, right? And we think that would be better for the world. Everyone generally agrees with this. But when you get down to the details of what that entails and it is a new thing, not a lot of companies are doing it. Nobody really wants to be the first and no one wants to mess with the status quo.

• 5:55Speaker 05

  And from their perspective, they want to focus on running their business, increasing their revenues. And this is sort of ancillary. But for us, it is our business. Our business is all about helping the retail investor, making sure they have all the advantages that institutions have. And so it's very, very important. We've continued on this journey. Obviously, the OpenAI and SpaceX stock token giveaways in Europe were kind of step one. But it's evolved, like we're continuing to pursue that overseas.

• 6:25Joe Weisenthal?

  Okay.

• 6:26Speaker 05

  But of course, we want to find a US solution for US customers as well. And actually, this week, we are taking public Robinhood Ventures Fund One, RVI on the NICE, which is a closed end fund. So you can think of it as a venture capital firm that we're taking public. We raise capital from retail investors and some institutional as well. And we use that capital to invest in private companies, which we've already invested in in quite a few.

• 6:55Tracy Alloway?

  These are things that traditionally would be limited to accredited investors.

• 6:58Speaker 05

  But it's not accredited vehicle and also no carry. So actually, one of the things we've been hearing is from a perspective of an LP that invests in venture capital firms and has to give up that performance fee to the manager. This is a disruptive vehicle. And for all of the Robinhood Ventures portfolio companies, and these are companies like Databricks, Aura, Revolut, I think I have to go through all of them because I don't want to pick out a particular, Boom, Hypersonic. Oh, yeah, we had their CEO on. Yeah, Merckor and Stripe, which we've signed and not closed. And I'm probably forgetting some, but yeah, these are all companies that are excited to have Robinhood and retail be a part of the picture.

• 7:43Speaker 05

  And they filmed videos explaining why they chose to be part of this. So there are people that want to be the first. And of course, this is a different product than tokenization of an individual name. And so it's like a little bit more palatable to most of these companies. But I think it ends up in the same place. I think there's going to be a gradual acclimatization to retail access to these companies. And, you know, Robinhood is going to be leading the way across all aspects of this journey. But, you know, our, our approach to it has, has evolved a little bit, you know? Now we're at the point where we're actually surprised how many companies are interested in it and are engaging and view it as a differentiator.

• 8:25Speaker 05

  So I think at least for a bit, we're going to be less aggressive than we've been in the past and just get into these companies and make sure they want to be part of what we're doing willingly and openly.

• 8:35Tracy Alloway?

  I definitely have a lot of questions on the venture fund in particular, and you promised to answer all of our geekiest questions about like the technical structure of how it works. But before we go any further, I have one conceptual question, which is when you think about the difference between, I guess, investing, trading and gambling, how would you differentiate those three activities? Because I think a lot of the tension that arises from something like tokenizing stocks is this idea that like. Well, you know, when you buy a stock, you're buying equity. The clue's in the name, right? You're buying equity in the company and that's supposed to come with certain rights. It's supposed to lead to a virtuous circle of, you know, the investors putting capital in

• 9:17Tracy Alloway?

  the company and the company talking back to its investors. And so I think if we just step back for a second and talk about how you see the differences between those three activities, that would be really helpful.

• 9:27Speaker 05

  Yeah, I think that the difference between investing and trading is really one of velocity. I think the mindset of someone, and by the way, it's not always different people. It could also be different activities within one person. So in fact, we have a lot of customers who have multiple accounts that they have for different purposes. So investing to me is, the mental model is, I'm buying something and I never intend to sell it.

• 9:56Tracy Alloway?

  Mm hmm.

• 9:57Speaker 05

  Right?

• 9:57Tracy Alloway?

  Longer term.

• 9:58Speaker 05

  So it's sort of like accumulating assets and you intend to have them only grow. And of course, maybe you'll sell it if you actually need the money, but the intent is always, I'm holding on to this and I'm building like a monotonically increasing portfolio. Trading is, I'm gonna move in and out because I see an opportunity. And that opportunity might not exist in one day or three months, but there's like a very particular thesis that I have that's time bound and systematic. And I think gambling is like mostly emotional driven, like maybe I really like this team, right?

• 10:40Speaker 05

  And they're my, my local team, so I'll just, you know, put, put some for entertainment purpose behind it.

• 10:48Joe Weisenthal?

  On tokenization specifically, just to go back to this question, you mentioned that you're through the regulatory environment or you're able to move a little bit more aggressively in Europe than US. But setting aside Europe or US. If someone buys something that on the Robinhood platform is called an OpenAI token,

• 11:05Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 11:05Joe Weisenthal?

  What are they getting? Do you have equity that has been like backing it? Is it a sort of swap where the only thing backing it is your promise to like redeem the token at some price? Like, what is the token?

• 11:16Speaker 05

  Yeah, so all of the tokens that we have offered in Europe, including the SpaceX and OpenAI giveaways. So those haven't been unlocked for trading. It's basically just, we gave our customers a gift that they hold in their accounts. And that's because, or actually, private markets, even in Europe, for tokenization, we're sort of like working through, since we're the first to do this, at least that I'm aware of, we're working with the regulators to make sure that when we unlock those for trading, the product is safe and is sort of like, answers all the questions and meets all the requirements for making sure customers are clear on how it works.

• 12:00Speaker 05

  So the intent is for that to happen later this year. So we're working on it. But as of now, private stock tokens aren't tradable. They're just gifts. And all stock tokens are backed by underlying equity or like equity equivalent position in, for example, OpenAI doesn't have traditional equity because.

• 12:19Joe Weisenthal?

  Okay, but there is, just to be clear, someone acquired some equity at some point in a VC round or whatever it is. And when someone buys an OpenAI token, that link exists to an actual asset that someone has.

• 12:34Speaker 05

  With the caveat that nobody's buying the OpenAI token through Robinhood currently. It's just been gifted.

• 12:40Joe Weisenthal?

  Okay, so someone holds.

• 12:42Speaker 05

  Those tokens are back.

• 12:43Joe Weisenthal?

  They've been gifted, but those are back.

• 12:45Tracy Alloway?

  But the token holder doesn't have the equity. It's in the like special purpose vehicle, I assume.

• 12:49Speaker 05

  So yeah, technically, the way this works is. It's kind of similar to a stablecoin. Yeah. So you have your bag of traditional assets that are governed by traditional rules and legal covenants and whatnot here, and then you mint and burn tokens against that. But yeah, as of now, in Europe, it's a derivative product. And that's also subject to change. You can think of this as kind of the paperwork around the technology. The technology is the same, but we have been hearing from customers that, hey, they're a little bit concerned, you know, with traditional stocks in the event of bankruptcy of Robinhood or something. It's very clear what happens. Yeah. And so in V1, I think a lot of those questions were ambiguous.

• 13:33Speaker 05

  But since then, we've continued working and we're going to have a V2 and eventually a phase three of this offering where we believe we'll have a path to actually addressing all those concerns. So now you're at the point where if you buy something that's tokenized, maybe it's a little clunky and it is slightly worse as a product than if you have the traditional equity. Right? If you have access to that, some people don't have access to it. So it's actually much better for them. But I think you're going to get to the point within the next year where it's superior in all practical ways. And I think that's where things really start to get interesting.

• 14:13Tracy Alloway?

  And just on the ventures fund, I know you said it was a closed-end fund, but is that like a 40 act thing?

• 14:18Speaker 05

  It's a 40 act.

• 14:19Tracy Alloway?

  40 act, okay.

• 14:20Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 14:35Joe Weisenthal?

  There are some market stories where you want every detail. Tracy and I have made quite a few podcasts on that basis, but sometimes you've only got 10 minutes and need to know what's moving markets and why. That's the Barclays Brief Podcast. Every week, experts from Barclays Markets and Research get you up to speed on what matters and what to watch next. About the time it takes to grab a coffee. So search Barclays Brief wherever you get your podcasts.

• 15:01Speaker 01

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• 15:30Tracy Alloway?

  I find financial engineering interesting and it certainly gives us a lot to talk about, but on the other hand, it seems like so much work. Would it not just be simpler to try to lobby for the accredited investor rules to actually be changed? Like, how are you making the decisions to, we're gonna create all these new products, which I assume are a lot of work for you guys, take a lot of discussion with the regulators, versus just lobbying for these old rules to actually get overhauled?

• 15:57Speaker 05

  Yeah, I think we're doing that as well. I think the accredited investor rule needs to go. Frankly, it doesn't make any sense. But I don't think that answers all of the problems that people have with private market investing. The other problem is just liquidity. Like, even myself, right, who has access to these things, I don't want to have my capital locked up for 10 years, possibly more, for these companies to go public. And some of them might never go public, right? So there's liquidity. There's also just access. And I mean, Robin Hood, part of what we're doing here is we're out there hustling, getting into these deals, because I'm in Silicon Valley. Our team is there, unlike most of these financial companies that are here in New York.

• 16:42Speaker 05

  So we happen to kind of be in the epicenter where the deals are getting done, where the companies are based. The no carry, obviously, and the accreditation, you know, if we could solve that through other ways, that will become interesting. But Chairman Atkins of the SEC actually specifically called out closed-end funds as the preferred vehicle for having access to privates. So, you know, we're doing our part, working with the regulators to try to open this up. I think they agree that it's a problem. And, you know, I don't think that it's going to be the end state necessarily. I think this thing will evolve, but we want to serve customers and work with regulators at all stages of it, so.

• 17:23Speaker 05

  And you know, you do this once, the fact that it's hard is also kind of attractive because it makes it so that we're unique. Like, we figure it out. We have qualities that we can bring to bear that not all of our competitors can. For example, you really need to have both sides. You need retail to actually be on the platform and to be serving customers who are interested in these products. You also need to get the supply. And I think Robinhood is somewhat unique in being able to actually do both of these things simultaneously. And then we figure it out once, and then we turn the crank. So, you know, you notice we named it RVI, Robinhood Fund One.

• 18:03Speaker 05

  We do anticipate there will be other funds. We already have lots of ideas of of unique products we can offer. So it's really just the first step.

• 18:11Tracy Alloway?

  So you mentioned being in Silicon Valley and being able to source these deals. And this is the other thing I wanted to ask you because getting into a hot private tech company at the moment seems incredibly competitive. And Joe and I, we go out and we talk to a lot of venture capital funds and they always give us the same pitch, which is, well, we're different. We build long-term relationships with our investments. How is Robinhood actually competing in that space and what, I guess, differentiates you from a sort of classic VC?

• 18:40Speaker 05

  Yeah, I mean, a big one is we can say that there's no carry on these funds. And what that means is it's just the more, we believe, a more investor-friendly vehicle, right? Typical venture capital firm will charge the management fee. There's also a carry on top, which means every dollar past a hurdle rate, 20% of that goes back to the fund manager. So it's more investor-friendly product. The other thing is, I think a lot of these companies are interested in retail. And no other venture capital firm can say, hey, actually, our LPs, de facto, not technically LPs,

• 19:18Speaker 05

  but the people investing in your company and who will get the underlying exposure through this fund are normal people, mom and pop. And I think that's something that nobody else is offering. So that's a unique differentiator. And some people don't. Like that, to be fair, but other people really, really like it. And for those people, and I think in the future, less people will not like it because of the uncertainty. And that'll just make it more attractive. So the the headwinds are receding headwinds, right? It's never going to be as difficult as it is right now to get companies interested in it. And I think it'll actually get substantially easier. We kind of went through this with IPO access, actually.

• 19:59Speaker 05

  So we have the largest retail platform for access to IPOs where we function as a selling group member. And, you know, we first rolled this out slightly before our IPO. The intent was Robin Hood's IPO would be a big retail offering. And I think at the time it was the largest for its size. It was north of 20% retail allocation. The other companies that allowed us access to their IPOs that year, I mean, they were early adopters. They saw the vision. We also just had to like, scratch and claw and bang on a lot of doors and ask a lot of favors, right? There was some skepticism. Then the IPO market shut in 2022.

• 20:40Speaker 05

  Then we, when we reopened, an interesting thing happened. Now everyone's coming to us and asking us about retail strategy. Pretty much all of the IPOing names are coming to us to talk about retail. And and so we saw that shift in just a few years. I think this will be even faster for privates.

• 20:58Joe Weisenthal?

  I want to ask, so, okay, you mentioned the advantages is, okay, there's no carry, there's things like that. That all sounds nice. I foresee a potential conflict of interest that I'd like you to talk to me about. In a traditional VC fund, it's pretty obvious, like the goal is to make a lot of money, right? You like make investments and you want them to go up. It strikes me, and especially when hearing the names of the companies in RVI, it's like, they're very sexy names, right? They're the the kind of household names to the extent that that exists within private companies and Boom and Databricks, et cetera. It seems to me like the traditional VC fund, like you're going to optimize for making the most money, the best returns, including names that no one has ever heard of.

• 21:40Joe Weisenthal?

  Why should I not think that Robin Hood's portfolio has been optimized for retail awareness? Not for the best returns, but for the collection of companies that will spark the most triggers in people's heads to get them invest because they've heard of them and they're sexy and not necessarily the best options out there in terms of investing?

• 21:57Speaker 05

  Well, I mean, first of all, we are incented to make this firm perform well, right? We, everyone will see it. It's going to be highly public. The returns will just be out there. And, you know, we have a fiduciary obligation. We've got a great fund manager that we've hired and we're underwriting all of these deals extremely rigorously. I think the biggest worry that you have with things like this is actually adverse selection, right?

• 22:26Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah.

• 22:26Speaker 05

  Are you just going to get into the deals of the companies that need the money and are desperate for it?

• 22:31Joe Weisenthal?

  Right, right.

• 22:32Speaker 05

  This is what you run into with like new things typically. It's like, when am I going to start looking at?

• 22:37Joe Weisenthal?

  This is like what I think, because I've got, like, I mentioned this on another episode. Someone was like, Joe, someone is selling some Anthropic shares that is interesting. I'm not investing in companies I cover in the private markets. I'm not going to do it. But like, I always have the thought, like, you know, if someone's offering to sell it to me, they must really want to get it. When they're asking us for money, it's a bad sign. When they're like offering the equity to Joe, like, that's like a bad sign. I, not necessarily a bad sign, but that adverse selection of like, by the time it's getting allocated to retail, like, a bunch of people have decided to part with it.

• 23:06Speaker 05

  We have to flip that on its head. And actually, all of the deals that we've gone into have been competitive deals. Like, we've had to work for these allocations. You know, I've had, I have a lot of friends that are venture capitalists.

• 23:17Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah.

• 23:18Speaker 05

  And I think some of them, like, I've been talking about this for a while, this general idea of we want to get in and actually start competing with you guys, you know, and they never took me seriously. But then we started, you know, getting allocations and deals that they wanted allocations in. And I've started getting calls and they've been telling me, hey, this Robin Hood Ventures is a real thing. I have to contend with you now. So. I think we're very proud of the companies that we've gotten thus far. I think.

• 23:45Joe Weisenthal?

  You made the point that one of the drawbacks is liquidity, which is always going to be a phenomenon in private markets. Another drawback to this is that the investor doesn't know anything. There's no 10Qs, there's no earnings calls or anything like that. And you know, you don't know, okay, you own some tiny slice of a private company, whether via a token or whether via RVI. You don't really know what the share count is. You don't know like, how much have they like allocated to employees this quarter? Cause they're under no obligation to think that. Are we heading towards a world, do you think, in which the trade off is like, okay, investors can get access to almost everything via some instrument? But are we heading to a world where the flip side is? And they're going to know a lot less about the companies that they've invested in?

• 24:29Speaker 05

  I don't think so. I don't worry about that. And in fact, one of the innovations that we've were putting out there with the launch of this offering is private company detail pages. So you'll actually be able to search for the private companies themselves in Robinhood and see all of the information.

• 24:47Joe Weisenthal?

  But they're not gonna like, they're like revenues, like earning, like all the traditional, like they're not.

• 24:52Speaker 05

  It's publicly available information, what they've chosen to share, but it's all in one place. And you get a lot of useful stuff in there. You see the valuation history. So you can see like, you know, the chart of companies like Databricks, for example. Yeah, and I think there's just a lot of information out there. I mean, if you think about investing in a private company today versus a retail investor investing in a public company, say in the eighties, I'd venture to say there's more information. You have like App Store analytics data for consumer products. They're out there. A lot of these late stage privates are doing public company like disclosures and audits on a regular basis.

• 25:33Speaker 05

  Because this isn't, you know, these aren't hundred million dollar companies. These are, you know, some of them are in the hundreds of billions of valuations, tens of billions. Probably 15 years ago, these would have gone public a while ago. So, I mean, we've generally started with household names. With some exceptions that are already established at the frontiers of the industries. And these are like the companies that would be closest to being public. So if you think about, you know, public company IPO access candidate, Robinhood Ventures. Robinhood Ventures is filling, it's like gradually extending backward.

• 26:12Speaker 05

  Actually, the thing I'm most excited about, if I had to point to something, it's eventually getting to the earliest possible stages. Like I think retail should be funding seed rounds, like the first capital in a company should have a retail participation. And, and I think we hear from the, the customers. One of the concerns is, well, these companies are fairly late stage. How do I get exposure to something that's earlier so I can get in on the ground floor? And I think that's something we're excited to dig into and, and work on.

• 26:43Tracy Alloway?

  Would that be like a GoFundMe competitor or something? Cause there are some, there are Kickstarter, that's what I'm thinking of.

• 26:49Speaker 05

  Well, the difference is with those products, you don't actually get any ownership. You're giving, you're making a donation.

• 26:56Tracy Alloway?

  You get early products, I guess, but that's not it.

• 26:58Speaker 05

  Yeah, but what they want is, is ownership. They want to invest in something when it's at a valuation of say 10 million.

• 27:04Tracy Alloway?

  Yeah.

• 27:04Speaker 05

  And if it gets to 10 billion, that's a.

• 27:07Joe Weisenthal?

  And then they'll learn that 99% of those companies go to zero. But they have to learn that lesson for themselves, it sounds like.

• 27:12Speaker 05

  Well, you know, that's where we come in, right? And we, we think that we can, like, we can figure out what, what the right deals are. And what, what we intend to do is offer great companies to customers.

• 27:24Tracy Alloway?

  Well, on this note, and just going back to the ventures fund as well. I mean, one other issue I foresee is that you see a lot of flow and information in the market. And you can imagine some of your competitors potentially thinking that, you know, maybe some of that flow would inform how the fund is actually managed. I mean, in some respects, like you're starting to get a little bit investment bank-y where you have this huge flow business that you can glean market insights from. And then you also have managed funds. How are you sort of hiving off those two? Activities or how are you thinking about how like the data and the flow data that you see? How will that actually inform management?

• 28:03Speaker 05

  Yeah, I mean, certainly one of the advantages is we know what retail investors are interested in.

• 28:09Tracy Alloway?

  Yeah.

• 28:09Speaker 05

  And by and large, what we try to do is give people things they're interested in. You know, if they're not interested in it, it's not going to be a successful product. So I think that's a big differentiator as we think about this product. In terms of how the fund is managed, it has a separate board with great board members, separate, you know, everything auditing, compliance. So it's like a company within Robin Hood, the management company.

• 28:34Tracy Alloway?

  Yeah, so there's a Chinese wall effectively.

• 28:37Speaker 05

  Well, you know, it

• 28:38Tracy Alloway?

  I don't know.

• 28:39Speaker 05

  You get into legal questions that I don't even know if that word is appropriate.

• 28:42Tracy Alloway?

  I was gonna say, I don't think we're supposed to use that anymore, so I'm sorry.

• 28:46Speaker 05

  But yeah, of course, you can imagine everything that we do is highly regulated and scrutinized by armies of professionals. So yeah, that's, that's the one thing we were so established at this point that we have to play everything by the books.

• 29:19Speaker 01

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• 29:48Joe Weisenthal?

  Can we talk about prediction markets for a little bit? I have a lot, we have a lot of questions about this. You have a relationship with Kalshi, so people can access Kalshi's markets through the Robinhood platform. When trying to understand who is going to make money in prediction markets, which is more valuable? The liquidity pool and activity that's emerged on Kalshi? Or the distribution that you have through Robinhood? And like, which is the harder thing to replicate here?

• 30:20Speaker 05

  Yeah, I mean, it's fundamentally two different businesses, right? You can think of Kalshi, in this case, playing a role similar to an exchange in the equities and options markets. So it's like institutional business predominantly, although in CFTC land, it's interesting that the exchanges also have the ability to go direct to consumer, which you don't see in traditional equities. And it's a business where you're matching orders. So you're working with market makers, you're working with professional traders, you have retail as well. And to win there, you have to have great technology, low latency, you have to be good about listing products, maintaining market integrity.

• 31:05Speaker 05

  And it's like a complex business, right? And that's why the businesses that have gotten scale and traditional assets are worth, you know, tens of billions of dollars, sometimes more. We have a slightly different business model. The way to think about Robinhood is we're a financial super app. We should be the best place to keep your money and your assets. And we're building products to make sure more and more of your financial life, ideally all of it is on Robinhood. So if you want to trade prediction markets, options, futures, you're an active trader, we should get 100% of your active trading activity and we compete for that. We also want your retirement account, your kids' custodial accounts, your trusts, all

• 31:48Speaker 05

  of your mutual funds eventually, your spending activity through our card products, your banking through checking and savings. So it's really about how do we own the entire financial relationship? And we vertically integrate where it makes sense, where we think we have a unique advantage. But it's not like a... A focused, you know, exchange business. Although, you know, I should say, we entered into an agreement. We've acquired a stake in Rothera, which is formerly LedgerX, which is a DCM. So we do intend to actually vertically integrate the prediction market side of the business.

• 32:26Tracy Alloway?

  Hmm. So one of the things we often hear in defense of prediction markets is this idea that like, well, actually, if you're an institutional investor, this could be a way to hedge some exposure that you have. So I don't know, if you're an airline and a huge part of your expense account is oil, maybe you would take a position on what's happening in Iran or something like that.

• 32:46Speaker 05

  Yeah.

• 32:46Tracy Alloway?

  I know that-

• 32:47Speaker 05

  Or if you're a retail investor.

• 32:48Tracy Alloway?

  Well, this was going to be my next question. I know that you see mostly how retail investors are behaving, but do you see any evidence that people are like thinking through it that systemically versus just like placing a bet on whatever particular contract kind of catches their eye?

• 33:03Speaker 05

  Yeah, I mean, I think there's lots of stories out there that have been covered about people being incredibly scientific about all of their trading. And prediction markets gives you a wide surface area to do that under. I mean, you have obviously the sports contracts, which everyone likes to talk about, but economics. You've got a contract on alien disclosure, which I really, that's one of my favorite ones. Last I checked, 22% chance that there will be alien disclosure by the US government this year.

• 33:34Tracy Alloway?

  It's rising, I think, rising recently after all the Trump comments.

• 33:37Speaker 05

  Well, there's been some chatter about it for sure. But yeah, I mean, I think that like there's people out there that are studying these things in detail. They're building models. And what you find is with any nascent market, before you get like full institutional participation, there's more opportunities. And I think now we're before the point where these opportunities are arbitrage by, by the big players.

• 34:02Joe Weisenthal?

  I asked this question recently to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, and I think we kind of got a no answer, if I'm being honest. So maybe I'll try it with you. As you understand it today, would there be any limitation legally on Robinhood setting up a live stream of a giant roulette wheel and having people make futures event contracts on whether it's red or black?

• 34:27Speaker 05

  Yeah, I mean, currently, our policy has been to have them be backed by real events. So we don't want to do like- Derivative, we haven't done any derivative prediction markets and there's, there's different forms of that as well. Like you have like prediction markets and then you have a prediction market on how this prediction market is, is going to go.

• 34:50Joe Weisenthal?

  So like, for example, Polymarket had a market where it was the coin toss at the Super Bowl and you could bet on heads or tails and it was trading at 50% before the toss and then it went to 100%.

• 35:00Tracy Alloway?

  I mean, that seems very much like gambling, right?

• 35:02Joe Weisenthal?

  Well, like, why even bother having the Super Bowl at that point? If people are willing to like bet money on a coin toss, why not just have a continuous coin toss? Why, just forget the Super Bowl, just have a coin tossing machine and let people trade on it. Is there like, is there anything actually like stopping you from doing that?

• 35:18Speaker 05

  I'm, I'm not sure. Um, yeah, I mean, I'd have to look into that. We don't offer any of those contracts. I personally, you know, I'm a former trader, probably wouldn't trade those. I think the purposes for people trading them is, is probably more entertainment. But yeah, that's not to say that all prediction markets are like that. And, and I'm not against people innovating because that's how we discover things, right? Like generally speaking, I'm in favor of people trying new things and seeing what happens as long as nobody is getting hurt and, you know, market integrity and, and investor protection, all of that is being upheld.

• 35:55Joe Weisenthal?

  Just on the relationship with Kelsi, like you want to be this one stop shop for all money. Presumably they're, you know, Polymarket is going to build out its US version. I don't know exactly what state of that there's by other competitors. Is that going to be an exclusive thing or will you, is the goal so that a user of Robinhood can trade predictions on any platform?

• 36:16Speaker 05

  Yeah. So even currently, our relationship, we, we connect to multiple prediction market backend exchanges. Kelsi obviously is the larger because they have the, the vibrant sports contracts and, and they've been moving fast. We also have Forecast X, which is the prediction markets subsidiary of Interactive Brokers. And as I mentioned before, we've got Rutherford, which is, which is ours. And also we're continuing to talk to these guys. Everyone's interested in. You know, having access to Robin Hood customers sending our orders there. I think the way this plays out is similar to our other asset classes where we prioritize for where the customer is going to get the best execution and also contract variety.

• 37:01Speaker 05

  And we'll send our orders there. And I think where this ends up is you'll have lots and lots of destinations. You'll have smart order routing and the contracts, I think, will be increasingly fungible. So at some point, there's going to be a way to cross books and actually offload risk. And, you know, you'll have the election contract here and election contract there. And there will be a layer where you can actually like, even though there's technically on different exchanges, exchange one for the other.

• 37:33Tracy Alloway?

  Say more about this because this was actually going to be my next question. But when you think about what makes a good prediction market, the complaint that we often hear is, well, there's just not enough size. There's not enough liquidity in the contract. So I imagine a big component of who you're partnering with is just like the largest platform that's out there, like Akeshi. But can you describe like actually what you think makes a good prediction market for investors? Like, what are the pros and cons of each one?

• 38:01Speaker 05

  Yeah, I mean, I think volume and liquidity and contract selection are the big things. Contract selection, customers want selection. They want variety. They want to be able to explore. And both traders value this because they can trade more things. But also the casual use case of just looking at the markets and figuring out what the odds of events are. Liquidity obviously improves things. It improves the prices and also improves the odds of getting filled if you bring in an order with size and costs, transaction costs.

• 38:36Tracy Alloway?

  Yeah.

• 38:37Speaker 05

  Yeah, I mean, I think those are basically the the main things. It's very easy with prediction markets to replicate.

• 38:45Joe Weisenthal?

  Things that we don't think of as event contracts. So you can recreate a line that looks like equity or futures on a prediction market. You could, you know, you could have. And I'm curious, like.

• 38:56Speaker 05

  And I think some of those products are very useful.

• 38:58Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, that's exactly what I was guessing. Do you see a year, a point where particularly from the perspective of a trader, where essentially the exchange itself can be disrupted or sort of Napsterized or something like that because they have the instruments to get the price exposure that they want without having to interact with the traditional equity layer?

• 39:22Speaker 05

  I think it's different. You know, I think that obviously equity exposure is extremely low cost right now.

• 39:32Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah.

• 39:32Speaker 05

  In large part due to our efforts in the space. But if you want to buy an equity, I mean, it's just never been cheaper.

• 39:40Joe Weisenthal?

  Right, right.

• 39:40Speaker 05

  Our all-in monetization on equities business is like two basis points. So I don't really think it's competitive with that product. The other thing is you have leverage, which again, Robin Hood for our active traders, great margin rates. I mean, the, I think the most competitive margin rates in the industry, at least that I'm aware of.

• 40:02Joe Weisenthal?

  Will you provide leverage to prediction market traders?

• 40:04Speaker 05

  Right now, leverage is not permissible at prediction markets, but that's something a lot of people are talking about and asking about. Well, it's, I guess we're working on it to some degree, which is just driving towards clarity. But since that would have to be an exchange product, the exchanges would actually have to have to get clarity. But I think it's coming. Look, I mean, I don't think, you can imagine the market's still in its infancy. So you'll get all of these things introduced. And when you look at the options markets for traders, the leverage is actually a very attractive element of it, being able to, you know, put in a relatively small amount of money and get large exposure.

• 40:46Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah.

• 40:46Speaker 05

  So I think there's a lot that prediction markets, there's a lot, there's a lot of growth and a lot of evolution that's needed before it becomes like a full institutional grade asset. But it's underway and we should assume that it's, it's going to happen and it's going to happen quickly. And I think there's all sorts of, we view this and we have early insight because we're actually, I think. One of the only places where you can have all these assets in one place. We don't see any cannibalization. Traders love it. And I think we see an opportunity in combining all of these assets into one cohesive picture. For example, you can imagine you have a particular equity. In that equity detail page, say it's a Tesla or another company.

• 41:31Speaker 05

  You see prediction markets related to that company. And then that gives you a comprehensive view and you can trade very specific things. We think there's a big opportunity in earnings as well. A lot of people have thoughts on how companies are going to do with earnings. They have models. Stock price is an imperfect proxy for that. So EPS and revenue contracts directly would be, would be very attractive. And right now that's in a little bit of a limbo because it meets the criteria of a securities base swap, which would be an SEC product, right? So harmonization is needed to, to clear the path for listing products like that, which we're working with the, the regulators and collaborating to try to figure out.

• 42:14Speaker 05

  But yeah, it's, it's, it's exciting from like a market nerd standpoint because we're in the early innings and you can kind of see the future of how it's going to evolve. It's going to be a much bigger asset class, much more institutional. It's evolved similar, I think it'll evolve similarly, but more quickly to other asset classes that have come in, in the past.

• 42:32Tracy Alloway?

  Just going back to tokenized stocks for a second. Does consent matter at all? That sounded more like Epstein-ish than, right? Intended it to sound like, but like if an OpenAI comes out and says like, we have some reservations about this, we have some concerns. Would that give you pause for providing a token in that particular company? And then, you know, your role in the market is expanding as you start these new venture funds and things like that. You might not want to annoy a bunch of private companies at this stage. So how are you balancing those considerations?

• 43:06Speaker 05

  Yeah, the, these are all considerations that we're thinking through. Obviously, right now, the policy that we have is we'd like to get the consent of the companies. We want them to be on board. I think that if, if you think about it from, now, now here's the nuance. Let's say you're an accredited. High net worth individual. There are ways to get exposure to these companies without the company consenting, right? They just don't care, but legally you have a mechanism, you could become a LP and an SPV that exists. There's these ways where companies have already lost control of who their shareholder base is. And not to mention, when they go public, you've completely lost control of your shareholder base.

• 43:51Speaker 05

  So I think since it's early, obviously, our approach is we want to make sure everything is. We don't want anyone saying they don't want Robinhood Ventures invest in their company and throwing ice water over it. Not to say that that's going to be the policy forever, but that's kind of the, that's the approach we're taking now.

• 44:11Joe Weisenthal?

  Do you want to just drop your new card on the table?

• 44:14Speaker 05

  Oh, my God.

• 44:15Joe Weisenthal?

  So you have, we could just, we don't need to do a big like ad for like all the great, people can look that up, but you have this new platinum card.

• 44:22Tracy Alloway?

  Is this really bad opsec if he's like dropping his credit card?

• 44:25Joe Weisenthal?

  No, I just want to hear how it sounds.

• 44:26Speaker 05

  This is the most secure credit card on the market. Your number is not on it.

• 44:30Tracy Alloway?

  Oh, alright.

• 44:31Joe Weisenthal?

  Oh, that is legit.

• 44:33Speaker 05

  Would you like to hold it?

• 44:34Tracy Alloway?

  I would. Yes. This is nice. This is really nice.

• 44:39Speaker 05

  So heaviest card on the market beats out the Robinhood gold card.

• 44:42Joe Weisenthal?

  Actually, drop the gold card now. Let's hear the difference.

• 44:45Speaker 05

  Oh, very different.

• 44:47Joe Weisenthal?

  No one wants that puny gold.

• 44:49Tracy Alloway?

  Disappointing.

• 44:50Joe Weisenthal?

  Here's the platinum drop again. Let me drop the platinum one more time.

• 44:52Speaker 05

  So let me tell you, I can tell you the thesis behind this card, if it makes sense. We want this to be like the James Bond card.

• 45:01Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, no, it feels nice.

• 45:02Speaker 05

  If you are James Bond, this is the card for you. If James Bond, Sean Connery himself, were to have a credit card, he would have this card. And I think we tried to evoke that feeling, not just in the design of the card, but if you look at the website.

• 45:15Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah.

• 45:15Speaker 05

  We have a scuba diver.

• 45:17Joe Weisenthal?

  Nice.

• 45:17Speaker 05

  We have like these nice planes. So, yeah, we really tried to think.

• 45:22Joe Weisenthal?

  If I pulled that out, my friends won't make fun of me.

• 45:25Speaker 05

  No.

• 45:25Tracy Alloway?

  I will, Joe.

• 45:26Joe Weisenthal?

  You and Tracy will.

• 45:27Speaker 05

  If you pull that out.

• 45:28Tracy Alloway?

  Actually, I really like it.

• 45:29Speaker 05

  Well, actually, it's got 5% dining credit. That's probably, that's, nobody offers that with a high limit. So it's actually intended for you to treat your friends.

• 45:38Joe Weisenthal?

  Okay.

• 45:39Speaker 05

  And take it out.

• 45:39Joe Weisenthal?

  They're not gonna complain, they're not gonna make fun of me when I'm paying for dinner.

• 45:42Speaker 05

  And, and what we found was with the gold card, a lot of people, a lot of people don't really use physical cards anymore. It's Apple Pay. But the moments when you use your physical card, it's less of a payment instrument. It's more like, let me show you my watch, right? It's, it's a, it's a fashion accessory. It's a luxury good. And I don't know if the credit card industry is really, has really evolved. I think the same degree iPhone, you know, you have the orange iPhones now. It's, it's a fashion accessory, less of a utilitarian good. And I, I think physical cards the same way. It used to be that people wanted physical cards that were as light as possible.

• 46:19Tracy Alloway?

  Yeah.

• 46:19Speaker 05

  Because it served a utilitarian purpose. You want to keep it in your wallet. You want your wallet to be light so that you're not hunched over. Now I think it's a little bit different. It's an extension of your personality, so.

• 46:30Tracy Alloway?

  I'm a big fan of physicality in everyday products. Like, remember the, the cube, the tungsten cube?

• 46:36Speaker 05

  Yeah, yeah.

• 46:37Joe Weisenthal?

  Oh, yeah, I have one, I have one.

• 46:38Tracy Alloway?

  Like, that was a direct response to like, the ephemerality, ephemeralness?

• 46:42Joe Weisenthal?

  Crypto, yeah.

• 46:42Tracy Alloway?

  Of crypto, right? Like, you want something that's tangible and like, feels heavy in your hand.

• 46:46Speaker 05

  I keep telling Deepak that a tungsten card for crypto people would be cool.

• 46:51Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, get on that.

• 46:52Tracy Alloway?

  Oh, you should do that.

• 46:53Speaker 05

  Not a bad idea.

• 46:54Joe Weisenthal?

  Vlad Tenev, thank you so much for coming back on Odd Lots, appreciate it.

• 46:58Speaker 05

  Yeah, always a pleasure. Thank you, guys.

• 47:12Joe Weisenthal?

  Tracy, I love catching up with Vlad. I mean, Robinhood is a company that is like, so far ahead of the curve in basically everything that's happened with like, the retailization of every market. The complete breaking down of every distinction between what's a stock, what's a future, what's a token, et cetera. Like, they're right in the middle of all of it.

• 47:33Tracy Alloway?

  Absolutely. And also, there's a reflexivity here, right? Because the bigger Robinhood gets, the more its offerings kind of matter for the way the market itself behaves. So I think it's definitely a worthwhile discussion. I gotta say, though, like, the financialization of everything, I do find a little bit dystopian. I remember like, I went to Macau once and

• 47:55Joe Weisenthal?

  Never been there.

• 47:56Tracy Alloway?

  I was really looking forward to it because I was thinking, you know, the Las Vegas of the east. But a lot of the gambling I found like pretty depressing because some of it was as basic as like, let's roll the dice and if it's a high number, you win. And if it's a low number, you lose and taking like those kind of very simplistic binary bets.

• 48:14Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah.

• 48:14Tracy Alloway?

  And I feel like, I feel like a lot of that is sort of creeping into the financial system.

• 48:20Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, I mean,

• 48:20Tracy Alloway?

  And our daily lives.

• 48:21Joe Weisenthal?

  People bet on the coin flip of the Super Bowl.

• 48:23Tracy Alloway?

  Yeah, I know.

• 48:24Joe Weisenthal?

  Why even have the Super Bowl at that point? If people are, they're just betting on a coin flip, the Super Bowl is kind of an irrelevancy. If people are inclined to bet on the coin flip, I don't know if like people will bet on a coin flip, but it's not like that much. It's basically the same thing.

• 48:37Tracy Alloway?

  Yeah.

• 48:38Joe Weisenthal?

  Betting on red or black, which people do, which people do online, which is really depressing. Actually, the most depressing thing I've ever seen on the gambling front was, I was in Iceland and I think they have this

• 48:50Tracy Alloway?

  I do not think of Iceland as like a hub of gambling.

• 48:52Joe Weisenthal?

  No.

• 48:52Tracy Alloway?

  Go on.

• 48:53Joe Weisenthal?

  Like I was looking for stuff to watch on TV in my hotel room. And they had a stream or they had a video of like this like video casino where they had like an attractive woman dealer dealing cards and then people could phone in their bets.

• 49:08Tracy Alloway?

  Oh, wow.

• 49:09Joe Weisenthal?

  So like recreate kind of this casino-ish thing. But like, it seems like that's where we're going. And then the other thing too, is that, as I mentioned, like whether it's like technological arbitrage or regulatory arbitrage, every type of bet can be turned into, done with any type of instrument.

• 49:26Tracy Alloway?

  Yeah.

• 49:26Joe Weisenthal?

  You can replicate stock and options with futures. You can do sports betting in the form of prediction markets. You can then take prediction markets, and we've already seen this, you can take prediction markets and bundle them into ETFs. And so you could have buy an ETF that is a series of long Democrat in the Senate markets, et cetera. And so everything can be wrapped in every other sort of wrapper. And everything is just sort of seemingly, once you find the right wrapper, kind of allowed within their current sort of like regulatory framework. And honestly, even if it's not allowed, you do it offshore with crypto, et cetera. And so there's almost no way to sort of stop this, stop this progression.

• 50:05Tracy Alloway?

  But the other thing I've been thinking of is, you know, we used to hear of markets described as, you know, there were upsides to capitalism, right?

• 50:12Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, yeah.

• 50:13Tracy Alloway?

  Like, you're supposed to be efficiently allocating money to

• 50:16Joe Weisenthal?

  I still think there are some pretty good upsides.

• 50:17Tracy Alloway?

  Of course, of course, but like that used to be

• 50:20Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah.

• 50:20Tracy Alloway?

  the thing, right? And now you see more and more money that's kind of being diverted away from like, well, this is just going to fund a company.

• 50:27Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah.

• 50:27Tracy Alloway?

  Well, we're just going to bet on the line in the company going up or, you know, some other real world outcome or whatever. Here's what it is. We were talking about this the other day, but like, it actually feels like if you think about the 1980s, you had that greed as good shift.

• 50:42Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, yeah, right.

• 50:42Tracy Alloway?

  Right? And even that was controversial. And now you fast forward to 2026 and it feels like morality doesn't even like necessarily enter into it. Everyone is just like so resigned

• 50:53Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah.

• 50:53Tracy Alloway?

  to this idea that like, well, of course, people are going to try to make money. Of course, we're going to just bet on random things to try to win.

• 51:00Joe Weisenthal?

  Everyone just accepts that like securing the bag is, is the other thing. The one other thing I do worry about is like, I think American capital markets are good in part because we really do have excellent disclosure. And, um, you know, from time to time, you hear about like an accounting scandal or something, but they're rare. Like, and they're a lot rare. I think anyone who looks in any other market around the world would find them way more frequent. And market manipulation would find it way more frequent in other markets outside the US because we have this very good regulatory regime and expectations. And the SEC mostly does this job very well. And it's going to increasingly sort of like be taken over by tradable instruments for which investors really do not have the same level of information at all.

• 51:45Joe Weisenthal?

  And the expectation that an investor would like be able to know the share count of a thing they're buying or be able to know the earnings or the margins of a thing they're buying. Like, that's going away and we might regret like having so much traded without as much transparency at some point down the line.

• 52:00Tracy Alloway?

  No, absolutely. Actually, this is a good reminder. I wanted to call back to two episodes. So on that note, we did that really good episode about private credit in particular, kind of turning the economy into a black hole.

• 52:11Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, yeah, that's right, that's right.

• 52:12Tracy Alloway?

  I think that's really good. You know, obviously it's focused on credit, but you can extrapolate to more and more companies just going private in general. And then secondly, Vlad mentioned he's really into aliens. We got to get Paul Krugman back on.

• 52:25Joe Weisenthal?

  To talk about alien disclosure.

• 52:26Tracy Alloway?

  To talk about aliens.

• 52:26Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, let's do it.

• 52:27Tracy Alloway?

  But in the meantime, there is an existing episode that people should check out. Anyway, shall we leave it there?

• 52:32Joe Weisenthal?

  Let's leave it there.

• 52:32Tracy Alloway?

  This has been another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. I'm Tracy Alockway. You can follow me at Tracy Alockway.

• 52:37Joe Weisenthal?

  And I'm Joe Weisenthal. You can follow me at thestalwart. Follow our guest Vlad Tenev at Vlad Tenev. Follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen Armin, Dashell Bennett at Dashbot, and Cale Brooks at Cale Brooks. And for more Odd Lots content, go to Bloomberg.com/oddlots for the daily newsletter and all of our episodes. And you can chat about all of these topics 24/7 in our Discord, discord.gg/oddlots.

• 52:59Tracy Alloway?

  And if you enjoy Odd Lots, if you want us to bring back Vlad on a quarterly basis to follow up on our previous questions, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening.

• 53:52Speaker 02

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