Marko Kolanovic Is Back With a Warning for Stocks

Marko Kolanovic was one of the biggest names in markets, earning the nickname 'Gandalf' for some eerily prescient calls over the years. But last July he left his role as JPMorgan's chief global market strategist and co-head of global research, after missing out on a pretty epic rally. Since then, stocks have climbed higher with valuations increasingly stretched. So what does Marko think of the market now? In this episode we talk about his outlook the market, the impact of AI including the new DeepSeek model out of China, plus his own research and analysis techniques. Read more: Kolanovic on the Canary in the Coal Mine for Higher Energy PricesOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Speaker 00

  Finance is increasingly being built on digital rails. But as the adoption of virtual assets, tokenization and stable coins grows, can regulation not only keep pace but help accelerate it? Find out more later in the podcast.

• 0:16Speaker 01

  This is the Bloomberg Tech Minute brought to you by ChatGPT. I'm Carol Muster. Getting hired at SpaceX requires exceptional ability and may include having Elon Musk review a candidate's resume. So writes Bloomberg Business Week's Lauren Grush. She reports that the company culture is defined by Musk and job candidates must understand that a commitment to SpaceX means adhering to this culture and exhibiting loyalty to Elon Musk. To get hired, candidates must demonstrate their achievements from past jobs and hands-on experience matters more to recruiters than advanced degrees, with the company looking for people with raw innate intelligence. A spokesperson for SpaceX didn't respond to a request for comment on its recruiting

• 0:58Speaker 01

  and hiring practices, but according to recruiters, advisors and those who've interviewed for jobs there, it's the space exploration dream that draws people to the company and Musk invokes that dream regularly to remind workers why they're there. Prospective hires are told that the job will require stamina, including in job ads that candidates "must be willing to work extended hours and weekends as needed." One major perk for all that hard work? Employees' access to equity, either the right to buy shares or payment in the form of restricted stock units that vest over time. That's the Bloomberg Tech Minute brought to you by ChatGPT. Get started at chatgpt.com.

• 1:41Speaker 01

  Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, radio, news.

• 1:57Tracy Alloway?

  Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. I'm Tracy Alockway.

• 2:02Joe Weisenthal?

  And I'm Joe Weisenthal.

• 2:03Tracy Alloway?

  Joe, in your, in your history of being a financial journalist, what are you like most proud of in terms of coining phrases?

• 2:13Joe Weisenthal?

  Oh.

• 2:13Tracy Alloway?

  I gave you a hint just then because I assume it's mint the coin.

• 2:16Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah. Oh, good one. Yes, sure. Mint the coin. That's right.

• 2:19Tracy Alloway?

  Okay.

• 2:20Joe Weisenthal?

  Thank you. Yes.

• 2:21Tracy Alloway?

  So I have a few. I have China's Great Ball of Money.

• 2:25Joe Weisenthal?

  I like how you're like, what are you most proud of? And this is going to be my saying into what I'm proud of. But keep going, keep going.

• 2:31Tracy Alloway?

  Thank you. You called me out. Europe's Sovereign Bank Loop.

• 2:35Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah.

• 2:35Tracy Alloway?

  Although no one believes that I invented that one. And flows before pros, which has come up quite a bit on this podcast. So the idea that, you know, when valuations are extremely high and everyone's buying everything, no matter what the price, that it's kind of momentum.

• 2:49Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah.

• 2:50Tracy Alloway?

  That matters more than fundamentals. Today, I'm very happy to say we are going to be speaking to a pro who knows flows.

• 2:59Joe Weisenthal?

  Oh, excellent. Extremely well done, Tracy.

• 3:02Tracy Alloway?

  Thank you.

• 3:03Joe Weisenthal?

  Excellent setup. Of course, I appreciate all of the Tracy neologisms. Man, what a time in the market to be talking about flows, to be talking about momentum, et cetera. I feel like I, you know, it's always chaotic. It's always uncertain. You'll never get an answer. But man, things feel really noisy right now.

• 3:22Tracy Alloway?

  They feel super noisy. So we are recording this on January 30. It is a week that has seen a very sharp sell off in tech stocks, thanks to anxiety over DeepSeek coming out of China. We're going to talk about that. And more generally, we're just going to talk about what's going on in the market right now, how investors might be handling it, and how the market structure might have changed over the years. And as I said, I'm very excited because we do have the perfect guest, the pro who knows his flows. He has a lot of nicknames, actually, Gandalf being one of them as well. Actually, I didn't realize one of our colleagues at Bloomberg kind of coined that name for him. But of course,

• 4:02Tracy Alloway?

  we are speaking with Marco Kolanovic. He is JP Morgan's former chief global market strategist and co head of global research. And now he's with us to talk about the market. And Marco, thank you so much for coming on Odd Lots.

• 4:18Speaker 04

  Thank you so much for having me.

• 4:20Tracy Alloway?

  I'm very excited. I know I've said that three times now, but I guess we should start with the recent sell-off, like the the DeepSeek, DeepStock sell-off. There are all these superlatives that you can use to describe Monday's action, like the biggest single stock plunge in history in the form of Nvidia and like eight of the top 10 biggest one-day drops in the S and P 500, et cetera, et cetera. And actually, as we're recording this on January 30th, Microsoft is down 6% after earnings. So maybe the tech sell-off isn't over yet. But one of the interesting things about this week is there hasn't really been broad contagion. So most stocks in the S and P 500 were kind of like, meh, we don't care.

• 5:04Tracy Alloway?

  When would you expect some of the anxiety over DeepSeek to maybe start having a bigger impact on the broader market?

• 5:12Speaker 04

  So, you know, as you said, there was not much contagion, you know, and if you look at the different stocks in S and P, many of them were actually up, you know, and many even in the tech sectors sector were up, you know, if you look for instance, you know, Facebook yesterday or today or a bunch of other names that sort of were perceived that they might be sort of benefiting from, you know, the sort of open architecture, you know, type of things that can come at a cheaper price, you know, and can be still, you know, implemented in their business model when it comes to AI models. So it was fairly contained, you know, I'm a little bit surprised just because there were like three or four names that really got hammered, you know, and that can only be explained with a, not just with a panic, but some of the sort of forced selling, you know, maybe coming from options, you know, if you are, you know, if you're selling Nvidia

• 5:57Speaker 04

  puts for the past few years, you could make a good living out of it. But then, you know, you'll have a day like we saw this weekend and basically you might get, you know, forced out of these positions and maybe have a catastrophic loss. So it was fairly limited. I'm a little bit surprised, you know, just, just because we didn't really have a meaningful sell-off since last summer, you know, sort of when the back of Bank of Japan, you know. So, so I do think we will, we'll see one, perhaps it's a little bit too early in the year. There's still quite a bit of an optimism post-election. There's a little bit of seasonality in January, people. Put money to work, they get paid, you know, they allocate the capital. So maybe it's a little bit too early. I was somewhat inclined to see that we will see a bit more, you know, at the back of it. It's perhaps not over.

• 6:41Speaker 04

  We still have a few important earnings to come. So remains to be seen sort of what happens, you know, maybe another week of earnings. You know, whether there is any, any sort of follow through, you know, but I do think that it's going to be. Some investors got burned clearly and a little bit of a tarnish on the sort of this thesis that some of these stocks like Nvidia just go up, you know, every day you can't lose, you know, like. So I think people will think twice. If something can drop like 20% in a day, you got to also think of it, what it does to your, to your risk.

• 7:09Joe Weisenthal?

  Well, so Tracy asked about contagion and the anxiety spreading across the market. But I guess I would flip the question, which is, as I've said before on the podcast, I'm a boring index investor. So like I look at a random American company that is like General Electric, it's doing fine. I'm not very exposed to General Electric because they're a small part of the index. I am very exposed to Nvidia and Microsoft and so forth. We did a recent episode about market concentration, but I'm sort of like curious your take on this fact that like so many of these flows, they go into broad market indexes, but we're really all very exposed to a few concentrated market bets.

• 7:53Speaker 04

  Yeah, so the concentration is the highest, you know, sort of 60s or 70s. So we're looking 50 years, half of the century, history and concentration is, is sort of at the highest point. It's been a while for staying there at this level, like maybe past, past year. So it's a weird market, you know, this concentration came for two, two reasons, you know, one is clearly thematic investing in technology. Then you also have investing in large company. You have a theme of momentum, sort of that is basically self fulfilling. You know, more something goes up, more money it attracts, becomes bigger in index, you know, all the passive flows into it. So there's a technical aspect, there's thematic aspect, there's even geopolitical aspect. A lot of money went outside of the other parts of the world. Europe is doing worse when it comes to sort of economy.

• 8:38Speaker 04

  China has been, we've been sort of at the brink of this cold war with China. So money has left there. You know, Latam has its own share of sort of issues. So money has been also geopolitically moving. So it's moving in the US. It's moving into indices. It's moving into tech, you know, and then you end up with these give or take 10 stocks that that really sucked up all the capital and valuations got very, very high. Now, you know, tech investors, they do have a sort of their rationalization. So what's going to happen in the future? This thing is just grow and grow and grow. And that's when we, when we saw with the deep seek, we saw a little bit of a dent in that, in that thesis, but these stocks didn't go up for the sake of, for the thesis. They, they went up some of these, these, these other flows, you know? So unprecedented concentration is not going to stay there.

• 9:22Speaker 04

  You know, the, the big question is when will we see that rebalance? Do we need to see, you know, some cyclical downturn first to purge and to normalize some of these valuations, you know? Because historically, these PZ, PEs were never this high. I mean, in 2000, they were this high and, and we know how it ended, you know? But a lot of people got burned, myself included with some of the call. We were more negative last year, you know? And, and basically, you know, markets has this tremendous momentum. So the timing is, is going to be challenged.

• 9:50Tracy Alloway?

  What does it take to, I guess, turn momentum at this point? Like what, what are the catalysts that actually work here? Because it does feel, looking at the market, so much of it is now technical or systematic in some way. There's a lot of option selling, as you mentioned, lots of multi-strat funds that basically, you know, just have to sell or buy to rebalance their exposure. What actually changes directions? Like, how do you get enough to change a trend?

• 10:20Speaker 04

  So, you know, so there's a technical aspect, sort of the, the mechanical aspect of it, and there is a sort of catalyst or more fundamental angle of things, you know? So. To get things to start moving or to stall, you usually do need to have some fundamental driver of it. So perhaps there is concern about economy slowing down. You know, perhaps there is a concern about something geopolitically, maybe trade war with China or some sort of blockade of Taiwan's trades or something like that, right? So first you need to have a little bit of a catalyst, you know. But if the market is technically very strong, the catalyst is not going to change the momentum. So what that means in, you know, more specifically, you know. So when you look at the trend investors, you know, they have a range of signals, you know, like so they can look at the one month price momentum, three month price momentum,

• 11:04Speaker 04

  six month price momentum, 12 month price momentum, maybe 18 months. But that's about it, you know. And there are some very short term momentum players that look intraday or on daily basis. But most of these signals are concentrated around 12 months and 200 day moving averages, right? So that's why when people look at the 200 day moving average, they first when I, you know, 20 years ago, when someone told me, I said, like, what is this magic? Why would this work, right? But it's reality is that many models, you know, systematic models primarily, you know, it's computer driven, but also psychological investors look at these things and become self fulfilling. So you need to actually come close enough to these levels to break them, right? So for instance, earlier this week, S and P got below around 6,000 or a bit below. We were close to breaking 20 day moving average and 50 day moving average.

• 11:48Speaker 04

  So you can think of it as about one month and three month price momentum. So that's about a third of a signal. The big signal is really 12 month, you know, or 200 day moving average, right? But when you start moving things, you can, you can actually unravel. It's like a little bit like a snowball. So I thought like if the market is going to stay below 20 and 50 days, at the end of the day, you may get enough selling from CTAs or de-risking from CTAs that it may get you to another leg lower, right? So it's a basically, you need to have a setup that you're close enough to these triggers on the downside to move it. And again, I think this week we got very close, but there was also other flows like rotation. You know, you saw like selling on Nvidia, but Apple and Meta went up. You know, like so at the end, Nasdaq dropped, but did not drop a lot.

• 12:47Speaker 00

  What's next for virtual assets? I'm Jacob Rees, host of Economy Scale, a series exploring growth in key global sectors. And in this episode, we're diving into the digital forces shaping finance. Shaun McHugh from Dubai-based Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority has this to say.

• 13:02Speaker 05

  We're seeing a lot of insocial players come in, digital asset dedicated hedge funds, high-frequency traders and that sort of thing, and folks who service insocial clients.

• 13:11Speaker 00

  As more capital enters the market, adaptive regulation is likely to become increasingly key. Reece Merrick of Ripple says.

• 13:19Speaker 06

  A lot of regulators globally would like to keep the industry at arm's length. That's the opposite here. I think also what you'll find is that regulation and frameworks can come out, but some of them are maybe a slight iteration on some 80-year-old policy and not actually in line with what the technology can do and offer. And again, that's very different in Dubai.

• 13:38Speaker 00

  Listen to the full episode wherever you get your podcasts. This series is brought to you by Bloomberg Media Studios and the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism.

• 13:48Speaker 01

  This is the Bloomberg Tech Minute, brought to you by ChatGPT. I'm Carol Muster. Getting hired at SpaceX requires exceptional ability and may include having Elon Musk review a candidate's resume. So writes Bloomberg Businessweek's Lauren Grush. She reports that the company culture is defined by Musk and job candidates must understand that a commitment to SpaceX means adhering to this culture and exhibiting loyalty to Elon Musk. To get hired, candidates must demonstrate their achievements from past jobs and hands-on experience matters more to recruiters than advanced degrees, with the company looking for people with raw, innate intelligence. A spokesperson for SpaceX didn't respond to a request for comment on its recruiting

• 14:30Speaker 01

  and hiring practices, but according to recruiters, advisors and those who've interviewed for jobs there, it's the space exploration dream that draws people to the company. And Musk invokes that dream regularly to remind workers why they're there. Prospective hires are told that the job will require stamina, including in job ads that candidates quote, "must be willing to work extended hours and weekends as needed." One major perk for all that hard work? Employees' access to equity, either the right to buy shares or payment in the form of restricted stock units that vest over time. That's the Bloomberg Tech Minute, brought to you by ChatGPT. Get started at ChatGPT.com.

• 15:12Tracy Alloway?

  Joe, it kind of reminds me of like structured credit notes where there's that knockout level and then you get this massive cliff risk and the whole thing kind of unwinds.

• 15:22Joe Weisenthal?

  Right, you have all these rules-based investors and something happens. They're like, oh, the model says to sell. It is worth noting that as we are talking, 10:19 a.m., January 30th, Nvidia is basically right at its 200-day moving average. I know this isn't the broader market, but it's a big part of the broader market. Yeah, it might as well be. One thing that struck me on Monday, which I was a bit surprised about in the sell-off, is that even on Monday, you mentioned that Meta actually closed green and they are a maker of a competitor to DeepSeek. They have their open source Llama, but they're seen by the market as a consumer of AI services because they don't sell their product.

• 16:05Joe Weisenthal?

  They use it to do things like better ad targeting, et cetera. Were you surprised that even on this day in which there was this sort of exogenous shock to the market? Everyone wakes up to some new thing that actually investors showed a fair amount of discrimination in terms of what they dumped?

• 16:23Speaker 04

  Yeah, so I mean, that was, that was against, you know, January sentiment is still pretty positive. Economic data are strong. So people are saying, okay, this is not the beginning of economic downturn. This is isolated sort of event whereby some companies will get hit. You know, their sort of revenues will get hit.

• 16:39Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah.

• 16:40Speaker 04

  And some will be able to do things for cheaper. You know, like so you had Salesforce, I believe, as well. And so it ended up not a macro day, but more of a rotational day. You know, there is also So called quant factors where, you know, even within technology, some stocks are higher multiples, some stocks are lower multiples, you know, some stocks are more momentum, less momentum, you know, like, so there was a bit of rotation. So Apple, which was a lag, had also kind of caught a bit, although I don't think there was much fundamental stuff going on for Apple. It was probably just rotation. So, so market kind of held up, you know, and I was sort of a defense, whether, whether these like technical levels 2050 will, will get broken and will go lower or not, we didn't, you know, but, but I do think that sort of,

• 17:22Speaker 04

  you know, valuation, positioning, and some of these technicals are a bit stretched, you know, like, so I don't have, I don't see like a huge, huge upside for the market. So maybe I'm switching the topic a little bit, but.

• 17:32Joe Weisenthal?

  No, no, that makes sense.

• 17:33Tracy Alloway?

  Can I ask you a sort of procedural question, which is, you know, you were at JP Morgan for 20 years and you were in the industry even before that. How did your sort of research and forecasting process change throughout those years?

• 17:49Speaker 04

  Oh, thank you. And, and it did change and it's, and it's an interesting, good question, you know. So, so I, I got my PhD in physics, in, in theoretical physics. So there was a lot of coding, there was a lot of modeling, there was a lot of sort of trying to understand why one thing leads to another, you know, what is the cause, what is the concept, what's causality, you know, and what's the noise, what's statistically important, what's statistical not important, you know, like, so, so in physics, you build this type of models, you try to understand what's significant, what's not, what you can neglect, which factors you can, you have to take into account. And most importantly, how to simplify the complex, you know, market is extremely complex system, you know, as many as physical systems. So you need to sort of move the noise on one side and drivers on other side and try to

• 18:30Speaker 04

  recognize those patterns, right? Like, so although I really never used any formula from the physics in my, almost never really in the finance, but the way of thinking is, is similar. So I started Merrill Lynch in derivatives, in derivatives research, where I started looking, you know, interestingly, we are now in earnings season. So my first models were impact sort of of earnings on a stock price and what can you read from options market, you know, like, so I published some papers, you know, come up with some formulas and we were kind of backing out, okay, what the option market is saying. And then we would go to analysts and say, hey, do you think it makes sense or doesn't? Makes sense, right? And then if you if you think that options are saying too much of a move or too little of a move, you could trade these options and stuff like that. So that was one example of, okay, how do you sort of, you know, you have a catalyst, you look at different markets, you see, are these markets aligned?

• 19:14Speaker 04

  You put some model together and then you find a discrepancy with them all. It's not always going to work, but if you do it for a hundred stocks, maybe on average in a portfolio level, you'll you'll be fine, you know, like so. So so so so that derivatives research and quant research, I did a lot of quant research. So you try to process the data, you try to look at the measures. And at that time, like, you know, twenty, twenty five years ago, it was beginning really of trading of VIX, of volatility swaps, of correlation, of dispersion, you know, like. So you kind of try to see, okay, you know, you look at the VIX, you look at the market volatility, what's driving market volatility? Well, people say, well, it's a panic or it's not, but let's be more quantitative, you know, you you can see how correlated stocks are, what individual volatility of each stock is, you know,

• 19:57Speaker 04

  which part is due to the macro factor of the market, what's idiosyncratic? So you can kind of break this down, then you can look at the sector. What's correlation between sector, what's correlation within sector? So you can kind of quantify these things and analyze and get some insight, you know, like two thousand eight, for instance, we look at the two thousand seven, two thousand eight, I look at the how the hedging of options impacts the market, you know, like. So you basically need to look at how many options are out there in index, let's say. You try to assess what's the positioning from from the flows, from the sort of knowing of industry, no hedging flows. And then you see, okay, what are the hedging requirements in the end of the day? And and two thousand eight and then two thousand eleven and there's like a low hanging fruit. You could see sometimes these flows would be bigger than market can absorb, you know,

• 20:41Speaker 04

  and and they would all go same way from lever ETFs, from options, you know. So you see like, okay, there's like twenty billion dollars to sell and market can't absorb that. So you know, market towards last ten minutes will drop. And that's, you mentioned sort of Gandalf, that's where where where some of these things. Because people, you know, if you look from the outside, you say, oh, how how can he get that, right? Right. You know, and but it is really understanding a bit of technicalities, which is flows, option, convexity is liquidity and how they how they sort of interfere. But, you know, after. 2015, 16, people figure it out, you know, and then people put it in their models. They create like a structured product.

• 21:19Tracy Alloway?

  After 2018, everyone sort of woke up to the VIX especially, right?

• 21:23Speaker 04

  Oh, yeah. 2008, 2009, yeah. And, you know, stuff like that. So you kind of analyze causes and consequences in the market. Something that is new, that's not been yet looked at, you know? And I have focused on things that were new in the market like products, options, futures, CTA's, those type of things.

• 21:43Joe Weisenthal?

  You know, this is, it's not particularly like technical, but another thing that seems to be true about the market right now is at least maybe up until a week ago, and there's just incredible amount of optimism in any sort of measure. So if you ask, you know, there's consumer measures. Do you think stocks are going to be higher in a year from now? Very high levels. If you look at things like the Bank of America sell-side analyst sentiment, very close to euphoric levels. If you look at fund cash levels, extremely low right now. Very over, everyone is overweight long tech. How do you ingest this information? Because on the one hand, you say, oh, everyone's all in. This is negative. On the other hand, people have been very optimistic for a while.

• 22:25Joe Weisenthal?

  How should we as consumers of this information think about what it says about the fragility of the bull market?

• 22:32Speaker 04

  So, you know, clearly in the markets, things are mean reverting, you know? Like so when things reach some very high levels, you know, eventually they're

• 22:40Joe Weisenthal?

  It can go on a long time.

• 22:41Speaker 04

  Exactly. So, so, so, so there is this mean reversion, but there's also trend, right? You know, like, so, you know, figuring out the timing of that is hard, right? You know, like, I mean, if there is a sort of a limited set of drivers, like in some of these technical markets, you know, so for instance, CTA's, you know, you know, once when the, all the levels are positive, you know, all the signals are positive and then volatility drops a little bit, you know, they're maxed out, you know? So you know they're not going to buy more, right? You know, like, and so you can, you, that's a, that's a self-contained, isolated system. And you can say, okay, optimism is too high. So there's only downside, right? With a, with a entirety of market, right? You know, with, you know, you have a crypto, you have a fiscal measures, you have like monetary stimulus, you have a sentiment shift. It's hard to handicap all of those, you know?

• 23:24Speaker 04

  So it's hard to say that for all of the investors to be able to know exactly when this thing is going to stall, right?

• 23:31Joe Weisenthal?

  Sure.

• 23:32Speaker 04

  And, and, and There are developments that is hard like, you know, this whole AI, you know, and I see the I wrote a book in 2017 about AI with my colleague Rajesh, 2018. So we were early on on AI and, you know, six years ago, right? Nobody was talking really about it that time. So it's not that I don't understand it, but I'm a little bit cynical about it now. I think it's it's too hyped up, right? But it's hard to assess how long people will be excited about it, right? You know, and yeah, so and then you have a changes. You have a political changes that can bring deregulation, that can be change in tax regimes. You have like a wild cards. So it's hard. Your question, I started like there is a version always, but where you're going to pick it can be very frustrating and very sort of you can be wrong for a long time.

• 24:16Tracy Alloway?

  Wait, can I just press you on that point about AI? Because I think I think the difficulty that investors are having is AI has a great story right now. And there's this idea out there that it's this revolutionary technology that's going to change the world. Joe keeps referring to it as inventing God when it comes to AGI at least. And at the same time, there is also a feeling that people are maybe getting a little too optimistic about it. There's too much hype in the market. You've started seeing companies that, you know, just put out a press release going, oh, we're looking into AI and their stock price goes up. How should investors handle their exposure to AI?

• 24:58Tracy Alloway?

  Like, how do you actually play it at this point in time, given that you were early to the topic?

• 25:03Speaker 04

  And now cynical. You know, I look at it from theoretical side. I look at it more how to apply it sort of in finance, in quantitative trading, you know, how to use large language model to assess the sentiment, changes in sentiment and those type of things, right? So, you know, how to read quickly things and summarize them and derive some signals out of it. So there is obviously bigger question of AI, you know, which you said is kind of philosophical questions like, are we going to be replaced? You know, at what, at which point, what's going to be role of human once when, when we can, you know, kind of break down our way of thinking and effectively train it and replace it, you know? So there are a whole host of other questions, you know, like, so I'm, I'm not skeptical that this is going to be hugely important and it is hugely important, you know? It's not very, very different of what people have been doing.

• 25:47Speaker 04

  You know, five years ago, or 10 years ago, or 20 years ago, obviously, big progress in computing power, big progress in the models as well, you know, like, so, so, so it's, it's, but, but I see, I see it like more as an evolution, you know, than something that changed with ChatGPT in 2023, like, two years ago, as a kind of like a step function. I see it as an evolution, always important, right? Like, 10 years ago, when we use our smartphone to take a picture, it's like, you know, camera would recognize the face, it would zoom into face, it would kind of do the proper focus and stuff like that. So that's also, you know, that's also AI, and, and, and things are advancing, right? And will keep on advancing. Now, question is gonna be winners, losers, how to monetize, you know, does, does that suddenly re-rates all of equity market multiple, you know, like, suddenly, okay, people are

• 26:32Speaker 04

  not gonna work, these companies go to all the work, so we're just gonna value them? Like, who am I to say that? And also, who am I to say that that's wrong as well, you know, but there's a lot of speculation, and I trust, you know, people often tell me, well, imagine just how my way to search internet has changed, you know, like, like, okay, like, we were searching internet for 25 years the same way. I, I used to use like a Netscape like 25 years ago, right? And, and the same thing, you type in a bar, and you, and, and you find something. So for Christ's sake, of course, it's gonna change. Of course, at some point, it's gonna be, we're gonna tell something to computer, computer will have its own ways of parsing and finding what's relevant and giving us back information. So I'm not as excited about that change. I think it's way overdue change, you know, like, but there is a lot of optimism now, there's.

• 27:18Joe Weisenthal?

  Well, I was wondering, because I was looking at your LinkedIn, and you mentioned you have a PhD in physics, graduating from NYU in 2003, theoretical high-energy physics, cosmology, string theory, and finance. I guess a two-part question. A, would you, would, do you think there's a world in which if you graduated today, you would have gone into AI instead of going into finance? Because I imagine they would have hired you at those skills. But B, like, would you think about, and Tracy mentioned, you know, like, the true AGI, do you think that the current AI research is on a path to that sort of AGI inventing God that a lot of the proponents believe?

• 27:57Speaker 04

  So, you know, I think eventually it will get there in a sense that it will sort of address some very important, you know, questions which are kind of deeply what every person fears or wonders or sort of seeks, you know, kind of meaning of our lives, like, you know, future after we die and stuff like that. So there are definitely interesting, interesting things there that can be done. I mean, people are doing with these like assistants, right? Like you train, and I believe really this AI will have to be a lot more personalized, you know, like so you will train it really on your life experience, you know, like so if AI can see every image I saw, if it can read every email, you know, I believe AI will be able to tell me when did I make a mistake, when should I do something different, you know, did you overreact in this life situation, did you not, right? And going

• 28:42Speaker 04

  further, right, like that will stay. And my, my kids can, after I pass away, they can say, hey, what would that say in this situation, right? You know, like what would, maybe I'll be able to in some way talk to them, right? So you blur all these things which were, which were sort of not blurred in the past, right? You know, so you, you, you will start having these like very, very interesting developments, you know, but I would kind of not look at them from the sort of P and L perspective, earnings perspective. There is also going to be a lot of issues as we have already now. I mean, sometimes AI can give you wrong answers, sometimes it can be used to do bad things, to impersonate, to deceive, to manipulate. So, so there's going to be a lot of, lot of interesting, I would say philosophical issues, you know, technological issues and investing, investing issues, but I just

• 29:26Speaker 04

  don't think it's going to be as simple as like seven companies are going to have P of 50 and everyone else will have P of 10 and it's going to persist that way.

• 29:33Tracy Alloway?

  Yeah.

• 29:33Speaker 04

  I, I don't think it's going to be like that in finance at least, yeah.

• 29:37Tracy Alloway?

  The other thing I wanted to ask you is, you know, you left JP Morgan in July and then pretty much a month later, we had a very sharp sell off. When you look back at that particular sell off, you know, we never got to hear from you, your thoughts on that, on that particular week in markets. What did you actually see and observe there? Because there are still differing opinions out there about what the proximate catalyst was for some of those moves and what was exacerbating what.

• 30:06Speaker 04

  So the catalyst was definitely moving rates related to Japan and the currency, right? That was a sort of catalyst, but you always have like a spark and a bucket of fuel, right? And the bucket of fuel will stretched, CTAs stretched, vol targeters, systematic investors, too much optimism, you know, and then you start basically hitting the stops across these strategies, right? CTAs hit their sell signals, vol targeters, vol, VIX goes up, vol goes up, they need to sell. If you know, if you were selling puts on AI names, you suddenly to, you know, you need to kind of close. So VIX was very, VIX behaved most phenomenally. So it was a vol, a lot of short vol covering as well, you know. But again, I think it was, what was missing for this to be the turn in the cycle was, I guess,

• 30:50Speaker 04

  you know, GDP, employment, still fine, right? Still hope that Fed is going to cut.

• 30:55Joe Weisenthal?

  Right.

• 30:56Speaker 04

  You know, so it didn't, it didn't, there was a little bit of conflagration, but it didn't kind of burn everything down, right? So it was a little bit of satisfaction, but it didn't last too long.

• 31:05Joe Weisenthal?

  It is pretty remarkable, because even we got a little sell-off, but it's a very minor sell-off. We're basically, the stock market is more or less at all-time highs. This is despite a pretty big repricing of the expectation of the short end of the curve, where people were expecting deep cuts to continue through last year and to this year. We might not get any cut this year, and yet still the market is close to all-time highs. It must be nice on some level to be out of the game of having to come up with an end-of-year price target, because that sounds like a job I would never want to take. But I also wonder, you know, do you wake up in the morning and still like? Yearn to give end-of-year target. So like, talk to us about, you know, what, you have a market outlook for right now? Like, give us some, give us what's on your mind.

• 31:49Speaker 04

  Sure, sure. Like, so, so, look, it's nice once in a while that you can be somewhere away and not look at the Fed, parse every single word, although I did it yesterday, you know, but a few months ago I didn't, you know, like, so it's nice to make a break, or maybe it's necessary. You know, ultimately, markets are a little bit of a sort of compulsion, thing of compulsion, you, when you feel like you need to understand what's going on in the world. You know, so I think it becomes part of your DNA if you do it for a long time. So, so I do always think, and I do have an outlook.

• 32:18Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, so, give us a...

• 32:20Speaker 04

  So, you know, you know, on a sell side, you kind of need to put a price target, and I, and I think it's a kind of poor way to summarize everything into one number. It's basically almost you're telling, you're trying to forecast...

• 32:34Speaker 04

  Probabilities in the world, you know, because world, real world actually works in terms of physics, deeply works in terms of probabilities, not just superficially, you know, in a quantum physics. So you, you need to sort of have a sort of that hyperbolic view and, and you're forced to have one view like a hundred percent or nothing, right? So, so it gets oversimplifies. I think media, you know, and not referring to you, but media does a bad, bad job. They say, oh, what's your price target? They just want to talk about that. And they say, oh, you're right, you're wrong. That's okay. Joe just did that. Yeah. So, so no. So I would say like, you know, if, if I can move away from price target, I do think we'll go back down in the 5000s this year. Sometimes I think at that point in time, we will, we will see whether the cycle is still strong or it's not.

• 33:13Speaker 04

  You know, I think we need to see the whole new political climate, whether it will lead to turmoil. And I'm, I believe more likely than not it will, you know, like, so those things where I think will get us lower, right? You know, at that time, whether, whether it becomes an end of a cycle and you go much lower into 4000, that I, I don't know. I think there's some probability of that, you know? And then conversely, on the upside is everything goes, if really this is what they call it golden age, golden age of America, you know, then market will stay in 6000s. It can go a bit higher. I just see, I'm hard pressed to see it going much, much higher, right? Because valuations are there, positioning is already there. As you said, Fed is not cutting, right? So it's a little bit of a chicken and egg.

• 33:56Speaker 04

  I mean, I have been scratching my head like at these level of rates, which I do think are restricted rates for now, more than two years with the commercial real estate. Here and there we saw a few hiccups, you know, like, but you know, I do think that is sort of under the hood of economy, some damage is being sort of built up and down. So, so I, I, I don't think like market really, you know, going to 7000 or, you know, 6800 or something like that. So I would say maybe it can go 65, stay range bound, you know, like, so I would sort of formulate the view in, in terms of, okay, you perhaps want to sell upside, give yourself a little bit of a room for some more excitement first few years of the, of the first few months of the year.

• 34:36Speaker 04

  But then also be ready to assess once when you go in, if, you know, let's say 5500 or 5700 to assess is the Cycle potentially ending, you know, or that's going to be buying opportunity. And I wouldn't want to sort of say, hey, like it's going to first stay at sixty one hundred, then it's going to pull to fifty five, and then you buy with both hands at fifty five. And like, that would be too predictive, you know. But I think some variation of that path will be whereby sort of the depth of a pullback will depends on trade war, China, domestic political situation, rates, and like one off things like we had on Monday.

• 35:28Speaker 01

  This is the Bloomberg Tech Minute brought to you by ChatGPT. I'm Carol Muster. Getting hired at SpaceX requires exceptional ability and may include having Elon Musk review a candidate's resume. So writes Bloomberg Business Week's Lauren Grush. She reports that the company culture is defined by Musk, and job candidates must understand that a commitment to SpaceX means adhering to this culture and exhibiting loyalty to Elon Musk. To get hired, candidates must demonstrate their achievements from past jobs, and hands on experience matters more to recruiters than advanced degrees, with the company looking for people with raw innate intelligence. A spokesperson for SpaceX didn't respond to a request for comment on its recruiting

• 36:10Speaker 01

  and hiring practices, but according to recruiters, advisors, and those who've interviewed for jobs there, it's the space exploration dream that draws people to the company, and Musk invokes that dream regularly to remind workers why they're there. Prospective hires are told that the job will require stamina, including in job ads that candidates, quote, "must be willing to work extended hours and weekends as needed." One major perk for all that hard work? Employees' access to equity, either the right to buy shares or payment in the form of restricted stock units that vest over time. That's the Bloomberg Tech Minute brought to you by ChatGPT. Get started at ChatGPT.com.

• 36:51Tracy Alloway?

  I'm glad you mentioned domestic politics because one of the other weird things about this week, when we had the deep sea sell off was everyone was focused on that and you know, tech stocks went down as we mentioned, but then on Tuesday, everything started rebounding, even though we had headlines coming out of the White House about cutting what amounted to a pretty big chunk of federal spending. The entire market seemed to look through that, which is kind of ironic because one of the things we've heard for the past four years or so is this idea that, you know, deficit spending is driving the entire economy and stuff like that. I feel like political risk is one of those things that investors really

• 37:33Tracy Alloway?

  struggle to price in because there's so much uncertainty. A lot of it seems very binary. How do you deal with that?

• 37:41Speaker 04

  So you need to sort of, you know, put some scenarios, you know, what can happen in terms of taxes, regulation, you know, tariffs, trade wars, geopolitical conflict, you know, and then see what can, how can they impact specific stocks and industries, countries, and maybe overall market sentiment, you know, and maybe put some scenarios. That's a kind of a blueprint and market never goes by that blueprint, but at least gives you some framework to try to understand if it doesn't go by, by your sort of assessment, what have you missed and what you need to, what else you need to take into account. But you put some blueprint, sort of what can happen. So, you know, I think you pointed very well. He was talking about Nvidia, Taiwan export, sort of like, so those type of things, right? So market that's, then market has its minds of its own, which is tied to sentiment,

• 38:26Speaker 04

  you know, and it's tied to momentum, you know, and most people think momentum, you know, they don't calculate, but they think they just feel good about market. They see good news about market. They, their taxi driver or friend or family feels good about investing, right? And, and, and they choose then to ignore, you know, like, so on Monday, I was watching CNBC and every single guest was saying, oh, take your shopping list out, take your shopping list out, take your buy this, buy this, buy this, right? So, so, you know, it creates a little bit of a sentiment, you know, it creates a sentiment and people say, okay, you know, I'm, I'll make a punt. I'll buy if it's 20% down, maybe next day it's gonna, that cat bounce some. So people buy, right? Some people rotate. So, okay, like, I'm getting rid of Nvidia, but look, Apple has been, you know, underperforming, so maybe I put my money there. So, so the sentiment overall was still pretty strong.

• 39:10Speaker 04

  There's this aura of momentum, psychological momentum that is harder to break, you know, you do need to have a few, few punches for it to break for people to sort of give up.

• 39:18Tracy Alloway?

  So one of the other things I want to ask you, you know, just again, looking back at the sort of long-term changes in in the market, and we touched on this earlier, but we've just seen an absolute explosion in different types of options trading and volatility trading. And now you even have TikTok influencers who are like pitching options investing as passive income, like, oh, don't buy a US Treasury bond, do an options bet, which is kind of crazy. How has that impacted the market? And how have you seen people, you know, trying to handle some of that new, I guess, dynamic that's been introduced?

• 39:56Speaker 04

  So that's a very good question. And it started sort of with around the COVID time, people were locked in, they got this stimulus checks, they started trading, right? Proliferation of these online brokers, no commission fees, options being traded as a sort of very short and short maturities, right? You know, options used to be sort of leaps, and then maybe like a monthly options, you know, second and third, first, second and third month, quarterly options moved to weeklys and dailies, you know, and then in the single names, you know, like, so you had sort of people locked, they got money, and they got these instruments, these extremely powerful instruments with leverage, about 100 times leverage, you know, like, so you suddenly can make a bets of, you know, millions of dollars, even if you

• 40:37Speaker 04

  have like, you know, $10,000 or $5,000 to invest, you know, like, so that changed, that changed a lot. And for most of these people, actually, it worked, right? Because since 2020, we had that pullback when the Fed started hiking, but for most of it worked, you know, like, so speculative trading activity, especially on the long side, it worked. Then you also had in parallel sort of crypto markets growing, right? You know, like, so if you think of it, like, you know, few trillions of dollars of wealth was created there with probably some of these similar type of investors and similar type of people, you know, like, so, so it changed, you know, so there is less leverage in terms of borrowing money, when interest is, but more, a lot more leverage in terms of option trading activity, you

• 41:21Speaker 04

  know. So as you said, I'm always also surprised you go on on some of these social media and then you see all kind of strategy. That can't lose money that are making like tens of thousands every day. You just need to follow him and and it becomes really kind of bizarre. You have like these people who are at same time performer or like women who are like, you know, in the like underwear suggesting how to trade options.

• 41:42Tracy Alloway?

  Buy zero day options.

• 41:43Speaker 04

  They're all big fans of mine. They follow me on Twitter and then they DM me. I'm very flattered. So so it's it's kind of crazy, you know, like, and we try to handicap it by looking at flows from Robin Hood, see which names are being sort of bought, which names are being sold, try to see where the retail may be forced out or something like that. So we did some quantitative work. We did a lot of the sort of language, large language models sentiment wise, like from Twitter and those type of other social medias, which which we could we could get permission to do. So we're trying to incorporate it, but I think overall it's hard to 100% handicap it. But for sure, it added leverage to the market, added speculative element to the market. And at some point, it's not going to probably end up well, right?

• 42:28Speaker 04

  At some point, you know, but it's hard to say when exactly.

• 42:30Tracy Alloway?

  Right. It's again, one of those things that can go on for longer than you think. Since you mentioned getting data from Robin Hood just then, this is the other thing I always wanted to ask an equity derivative strategist, because you alluded to this earlier. There's a lot of, I guess, misunderstanding or lack of understanding of what an equity derivative strategist actually does and exactly what data they're looking at in order to make some of their conclusions. Can you maybe give us like a quick 101 in where your data comes from? How much of it is from official sources like, I don't know, an EPFR or someone like that versus like color that you're getting from the market?

• 43:12Speaker 04

  Good question. Yeah, no, so so there there are all kind of data. So there are price and volume data, all kind of technical data that can be derived from from from those type of things, which can also be a different time horizons, you know, like they can be daily, mostly they are daily, right? You know, but increasingly you also want to look at the intraday data, you know, intraday correlations, intraday momentum, volumes, large blocks that are traded. So there is also high frequency one day, but most of it is daily, I would say. And there are longer term data, you know, when you look at the sort of, you know, some like a monthly statistics on positioning or up to the sort of filings, you know, 13F filings, like holdings and stuff like that, you know, like so.

• 43:51Speaker 04

  So different sort of frequencies of positioning, volume data, price data, then so directly market observed data like open interest, you know, options, volume and options, those type of things, right? Then you have sort of fundamental data, you know, and fundamental data, you have fundamental data for stocks, you know, which are related to earnings. But increasingly you have a data which are derived from non-traditional sources, you know, so-called big data. That can be sort of sentiment measures, but quantically derived measures, objective, not sort of guesswork. To some very specific niche data like, you know, satellite, you know, all kind of like data that, you know, we didn't have, you know.

• 44:29Tracy Alloway?

  How many cars are parked out shopping malls?

• 44:30Speaker 04

  Correct, parking lots and in front of Walmart and those type of things, right? So you have these stock-specific data, earnings derived, news derived, sentiment derived, and then also non-traditional ones, you know. And then you have like macro data, you know, typically lower frequencies, but increasingly also with some of these alternative data sets, big data sets. You can try to figure out like, you know, shipping and again, sort of storage and oil tank, tanks, how full they are and stuff like that. So this whole host of data, you know, like as a quant and there are this person, you probably focus most on the market data, you know, so open interest, price, volumes. And all stuff that is derived from that, but you also wanna wanna supplement that with all these other, other data.

• 45:10Speaker 04

  And then, and then some of the data set you derive it on your own, you know, like so, so for instance, gamma imbalance in S and P options put minus call. So I was running that for fifteen, twenty years and first people tell me, you know, what's that? That's, you know, you cannot know what's, you know, but then now everybody has it actually, you know, and, and the same thing with like a CTA stuff. You know, and, and vault targeting exposure, I was getting so much sort of critique in 2011, 12, 13, you know, now everybody has it, you know, kind of CTA positioning percentages. So you can derive some on your own based on your understanding of the markets.

• 45:42Joe Weisenthal?

  All right, I just have one take and I bring it up a lot and I sort of feel like the Kool-Aid Man. It's like every conversation, I have to jump it through the wall and interject this. But you know, there's all sorts of like quant techniques and there's the definition of quant and changes over time. And obviously there's an incredible amount of data that we can use now. And then there's sort of like old fashioned quant where you're just like, we're gonna buy, you know, that I sort of associate with like AQR from years ago, where like, we're gonna buy the cheap stocks that are exhibiting momentum, right? And we're gonna short the expensive stocks that are declining momentum. And why doesn't this work anymore? And all these sort of hand wringing in the traditional quant industry. Why haven't, why haven't things mean reverted?

• 46:25Joe Weisenthal?

  How much is the fact that like so many of these sort of ideas about how the market should work have been broken by the simple fact that a handful of American companies that are very big exhibit year over year earnings growth that are truly remarkable. And this is a fact, not about the market world, but about the real world, that for whatever reason, these big tech companies just keep getting bigger despite their size.

• 46:52Tracy Alloway?

  Wait, Joe, you have to end that by saying the Kool-Aid Man catchphrase.

• 46:56Joe Weisenthal?

  What did he say?

• 46:57Tracy Alloway?

  Oh, yeah.

• 46:58Joe Weisenthal?

  Oh, yeah. As long as the Metas and the Googles and the Nvidia's and maybe the Apples of the world just keep growing earnings like crazy every year, how much does that bust any sort of notion of mean reversion in market?

• 47:11Speaker 04

  So I think it busts the notion of a value as a factor, but value as a factor has been struggling for a long time now. So sort of probably since, you know, decline in interest rates post 2008, a lot of these, you know, and growth of indexation, right? Growth of indexation kind of sparked the momentum and changed the structure of the market. So some of these quants, quants models or quant factors work less and less, you know? There is also another aspect, which is how, you know, once when you put money to work in these strategies, you kind of squeeze out the alpha, you know, and, and, and these things are fully priced in, so they stop working. So sort of growth of quant funds, traditional quant funds, you have quant ETFs. Like broker dealers doing quant strategies kind of squeezes out returns, right?

• 47:56Speaker 04

  You know, on your question, sort of like these big companies that keep on delivering. That's also a very good point, you know, quant strategies are designed for sort of steady state situation. When kind of things are fluctuating around something which is in a steady state. And we had sort of, you know, big sort of big changes in the world, right? In technology.

• 48:15Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah.

• 48:16Speaker 04

  And also geopolitically sort of, you know, capital move to US and it move into this sectors of innovation, right? You know, and now, so you may sort of, you know, you may constantly be out of equilibrium. Right? You know, where some of these mean reversion or quant strategies would work. Certain type of quant strategies, value based strategies, right? Question is how long, you know, how long can, you know, going back to the concentration, right? How long can it go? The my, my question becomes like, let's say, if you have like a social media company like a meta, right? I mean, once when they have all the users in the world, I mean, like, you know, they can go much further, right? They can go to the.

• 48:52Tracy Alloway?

  Right, there's limits.

• 48:53Speaker 04

  There is limits, you know, by number.

• 48:54Joe Weisenthal?

  Start creating fake AI.

• 48:56Speaker 04

  Fake AI, or go like to Mars, like there's no one there, so. So there's some, some limitations, right? Like, and then there's some sort of also historical, when you look at the weight of stocks in an index, right? So, so you take Nvidia percentage rate in S and P and, you know, you, you run back history and you see that this basically never happened. And even if it happens, it never lasts forever, right? But to your point, it can last, you know, one or two or three years is enough to, to ruin a lot of investment strategies.

• 49:21Tracy Alloway?

  All right, Marco Kolanovic, thank you so much for coming on Odd Lots, a real treat for both of us.

• 49:25Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, that was great. Thank you so much.

• 49:27Speaker 04

  Thank you so much.

• 49:42Tracy Alloway?

  Joe, that was really fun. I'm so glad I finally got to ask him a bunch of. Questions about just being an equity derived strategist.

• 49:49Joe Weisenthal?

  I know.

• 49:49Tracy Alloway?

  I've had on my mind for a while.

• 49:50Joe Weisenthal?

  I love those. I love those questions so much because they're this sort of like dark fiber or the dark matter of how this industry actually works, but everyone just abstracts over them. It's like, oh, you look at the data and then you do this.

• 50:03Tracy Alloway?

  Right. Like what data?

• 50:05Joe Weisenthal?

  Where did the data actually come from? Like, I could listen forever to someone, and we should do more of that, just like talk about these aspects, like paying for data and data costs and all that stuff. I really like Marco. It was a nice conversation.

• 50:19Tracy Alloway?

  The one thing I would say is, you know, you asked that question about like, well, the S and P 500 overall didn't do too bad on Monday. And like, you know, if I'm an index investor, I have exposure to GE. And so that's good because I don't have to worry about AI. But I think the question really is like, how much is GE exposed to AI in very indirect ways?

• 50:40Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, that's correct. Right. And you do sort of, I mean, you know what? I think I saw a tweet about this, so I'm just going to say it. And it may not even be true, but if it's not true, it's truthy. Someone tweeted that apparently there was like a Sherwin-Williams earnings call, and someone asked about how much paint data centers are going to need to paint their walls. I don't know if it's true, but if it, because I just saw the tweet. But if it's not true, it doesn't really matter because it is true. Like every company is like, are you doing something that could supply? Do you sell some product that someone building an AI data center is going to need at some point? But my point about GE, though, was kind of the opposite, which is like GE did fine on that day,

• 51:24Joe Weisenthal?

  but I wish I had more exposure to GE. What I really have is a bunch of Nvidia and Microsoft exposure through my index fund.

• 51:30Tracy Alloway?

  Right, but you don't know how much exposure, indirect exposure you have to Nvidia and Microsoft through GE.

• 51:36Joe Weisenthal?

  This is true. This is true.

• 51:38Tracy Alloway?

  Skonda wrote that excellent column in the Odd Lots newsletter about how more and more of the economy is being driven by AI. We actually saw on, on Monday, the treasury market move a little bit.

• 51:49Joe Weisenthal?

  Yeah, yeah, for sure.

• 51:50Tracy Alloway?

  Which, you know, okay, treasuries will go up when there's a market sell off, but a lot of people were saying, well, this impacts. Growth expectations as well. And so that's why you're getting this reaction.

• 52:01Joe Weisenthal?

  No, totally. I think the degree, I mean, especially you know, you go back and like Trump announced the half a trillion dollar Stargate project. And I don't know what's really going to become of that. But like, I believe the data centers and AI specifically through the data center channel is a meaningful, important, is a growing important part of the real economy right now. And if suddenly they're like, you know what, this is a dead end or suddenly like, we don't need this because we can get AGI so cheaply that it's just like on our laptop, that would raise some real econ concerns.

• 52:38Tracy Alloway?

  Yeah. Shall we leave it there?

• 52:39Joe Weisenthal?

  Let's leave it there.

• 52:40Tracy Alloway?

  Oh, yeah. This has been another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.

• 52:47Joe Weisenthal?

  And I'm Joe Weisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart. Follow our guest, Marco Kolanovic. He's at Marco in NY. Follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen Armin, Dashell Bennett at Dashbot, and Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks. For more Odd Lots content, go to Bloomberg.com/oddlots, where we have transcripts of blog and a newsletter, and you can chat about all of these topics 24/7 in our Discord, discord.gg/oddlots.

• 53:11Tracy Alloway?

  And if you enjoy Odd Lots, if you like it when we discuss the dark magic of equity derivatives, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening.

• 54:01Speaker 07

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• 54:37Speaker 08

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