Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid on the First Jackson Hole of the Warsh Era
Hosted by Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway
- 28m
- Transcript
Summary
Written by a model from the transcript; not yet reviewed.
In this episode of Odd Lots, hosts Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal are live from Jackson Hole at the 49th Kansas City Fed Economic Symposium. They are joined by Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid to discuss the intersection of financial innovation in payments, structural labor force changes due to retiring baby boomers, and the current economic backdrop of strong growth and sticky inflation. Schmid addresses the implications of high bond yields, the new Federal Reserve leadership under Chairman Kevin Warsh, and the ongoing debate over R star and the Fed's dual mandate.
- The Federal Reserve moves between $5 and $10 trillion a day through payment pipes, and the financial sector is moving toward instantaneous atomic settlement. 3:49
- The baby boom generation is retiring at a rate of about 4 million people per year, creating a massive structural labor force shift. 6:57
- Inflation has surged into the mid-threes and must be addressed because it is part of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. 13:56
- Higher short-term policy rates have a behavioral impact on current business decisions such as whether to pre-buy inventory. 26:27
Chapters
- 0:00Podcast Introduction and Setting
Hosts introduce the episode, explain the format, and welcome listeners to Jackson Hole.
- 2:07Arrival at Jackson Hole and Theme Overview
Tracy and Joe arrive at Jackson Hole, noting the scenery and previewing the symposium’s focus on financial innovation in payments amid economic uncertainty.
- 2:58Jeffrey Schmid’s Welcome and Symposium Context
Schmid greets the hosts, remarks on the 49th year of the symposium, and outlines the theme of payments innovation against a backdrop of high bond yields and economic uncertainty.
- 3:43Payments Innovation and Instant Settlement
Schmid explains the importance of payments, the move toward atomic settlement, and the need for liquidity and duration management in an instant payment system.
- 7:00Economic Outlook: Inflation, Yield Curve, and Labor Force
Schmid discusses inflation targets, the yield curve, and the impact of the aging labor force and AI on credit demand and economic growth.
- 10:00Bond Yields as Policy Signals and Inflation Control
Schmid elaborates on how bond yields influence policy decisions, mortgage rates, and the broader economy, stressing the Fed’s role in managing inflation.
- 17:15FOMC Dynamics: Dissent, Debate, and the Role of the Chair
Schmid reflects on his past dissenting votes, the importance of debate within the FOMC, and the evolving communication style under Chairman Worsch.
- 24:45R Star, Accommodativeness, and Future Policy Direction
Schmid addresses the debate over R star, the current accommodative stance, and how future policy will balance inflation and employment.
- 29:17Closing Remarks and Future Outlook
Hosts wrap up the conversation, hint at upcoming developments, and thank Schmid for his insights.
Highlights
- 3:49
Moving Toward Instantaneous Atomic Settlementinsight
Payment technology is evolving toward instant reconciliation and settlement, which will be both innovative and disruptive for the financial system.
- 6:57
Baby Boomer Retirement Wavedata
Around 4 million baby boomers retire each year, causing a massive structural change in the labor force and a significant loss of intellectual capital.
- 10:31
Data Center Boom Competitioninsight
The massive build-out of data centers and artificial intelligence infrastructure is driving heavy demand for commodities like steel, copper, and machinery, creating competitive pressures across industries.
- 13:56
Addressing Elevated Inflationinsight
Inflation has remained unacceptably high in the mid-threes, and Schmid argues that the Federal Reserve must actively take it seriously and act on it to fulfill its mandate.
- 17:15
Deciding to Dissent at the Fedstrategy
Schmid explains that a dissent on the FOMC is an action that signals a disagreement on how risks between the dual mandates of inflation and full employment are weighted.
- 24:45
Normalizing R Star Levelsinsight
Schmid notes that while economic conditions are normalizing around R star, the baseline level of R star may be higher than it was prior to the 2008 financial crisis.
Quotes
“We have the mountains in the background, but I think I say this every year. I think this genuinely might be one of the most interesting Kansas City Fed economic symposiums ever.”
Tracy Alloway · 2:25 “Because some people would say, oh, man, payments, that's boring. But actually, yeah, but it, you know, we want it ultimately as the Federal Reserve, make payments boring.”
Unnamed speaker · 3:43 “I absolutely do. I mean, I've been fairly public about what I, you know, my proclivity to say, look, I think the labor force is, is in a pretty good place.”
Unnamed speaker · 13:22 “I think there's a couple of things in your question that I think it begs.”
Unnamed speaker · 5:08
About this episode
We are back in Jackson Hole! And this year's Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City symposium on monetary policy might be one of the most interesting editions in years. It marks the first under new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, and Fed observers all over the world will be closely watching his Friday speech for signs of how he might further distinguish himself, and the institution he is in charge of, from the Jerome Powell era. This meeting at Jackson Hole also comes at a fascinating, and pretty tense, time for monetary policy in the US and abroad: high bond yields, above-target inflation, and AI's still unrealized effect on broader parts of the economy like the job market. As we have in the past, we speak with Jeffrey Schmid, the president and CEO of the Kansas City Fed, about what to expect and he also shares his thoughts on the wave of baby boomer retirements and how it's affecting the labor force, his recent FOMC votes, and he explains why this symposium is so focused on payments. See omnystudio.com/listener https://omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Transcript
5,858 words · 9 speakers
Speaker names marked are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.
Topics
- ChatGPT
- FOMC
- Wise
- Kansas City Fed
- Cincinnati Insurance
- Jackson Hole
- ChatGPT Work
- Barclays Brief Podcast
- Atomic Settlement
- Bloomberg Audio Studios
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