NVIDIA's $96.2B Quarter, China's 200,000 Fake Accounts, & OpenAI's New Chip | EP #284

The mates discuss NVIDIA’s $96.2B quarter and the AI circular economy, China’s 200,000 fake accounts, Flock’s 20 billion license plate scans, OpenAI’s new chip, why only 4% of companies are cutting jobs due to AI, and a major breakthrough that has doubled pancreatic cancer survival. Sign up for our AMA at ⁠http://Moonshots.com/ama Get access to metatrends 10+ years before anyone else - https://qr.diamandis.com/metatrends Peter H. Diamandis, MD, is the Founder of XPRIZE, Singularity University, ZeroG, and A360 Salim Ismail is the founder of Open ExO, a GP at Exponential Venture Capital/The Organizational Singularity Fund and a sought after global speaker and thought leader. Dave Blundin is the founder & GP of Link Ventures Dr. Alexander Wissner-Gross is a computer scientist and founder of Reified – My companies: Apply to Dave's and my new fund:https://qr.diamandis.com/linkventureslanding Get the blueprint for generative media https://goo.gle/startupgenmedia Go to Blitzy to book a free demo and start building today: https://qr.diamandis.com/blitzy Your body is incredibly good at hiding disease. Schedule a call with Fountain Life to add healthy decades to your life, and to learn more about their Memberships: https://www.fountainlife.com/peter _ Connect with Peter: X Instagram Substack Website Xprize A360 Connect with Dave: Web X LinkedIn Instagram TikTok Connect with Salim: LinkedIn X Join Salim’s 10X Shift Subscribe to Salim’s YouTube channel Exponential Venture Capital Connect with Alex Website LinkedIn X Email Substack Spotify Threads Listen to MOONSHOTS: Apple YouTube Follow MOONSHOTS: Instagram TikTok X Threads – *Recorded on August 28th, 2026 *The views expressed by me and all guests are personal opinions and do not constitute Financial, Medical, or Legal advice. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

• 0:00Speaker 00

  Nvidia just booked $96.2 billion in revenue in a single quarter.

• 0:05Speaker 01

  Isn't that a closed-loop circular economy? Couldn't that collapse? Every economy is circular in nature.

• 0:10Speaker 02

  To the extent there is an elephant in this particular room, that would be.

• 0:15Speaker 00

  The ex-safety team conducted an investigation into suspected Chinese inauthentic accounts. We identified a bot farm of approximately 200,000 accounts. These posts contain claims that AI data centers are driving up household electricity prices and straining the grid.

• 0:30Speaker 02

  Shocked, shocked, I say, that there are foreign influence operations attempting to suppress American AI data center deployment. Shocked.

• 0:37Speaker 03

  The difficult part is we have really no easy defense against it.

• 0:41Speaker 00

  OpenAI released the first performances of their chip, Jalapeno. OpenAI is no longer just a customer of Nvidia. They're becoming a chip designer.

• 0:51Speaker 01

  Inferences moving off of Nvidia for sure. This is the first 2X of 100X performance gains.

• 0:55Speaker 02

  We're in such a crazy future where I could imagine a world where, say, an OpenAI compute cloud hosts an anthropic model and OpenAI and anthropic win at the same time.

• 1:08Speaker 00

  Now that's a moonshot, ladies and gentlemen.

• 1:13Speaker 00

  Welcome to Moonshots, everyone, your number one podcast on all things AI and exponential. Your front row seat to the incredible accelerating singularity. I hope you can feel it like we all do. You know, guys, we just recorded two days ago, and it feels like a lifetime ago.

• 1:28Speaker 01

  I can't believe it.

• 1:29Speaker 00

  Isn't it?

• 1:29Speaker 01

  I mean, every story we're going through today is new information in the last two days. It's crazy.

• 1:34Speaker 00

  It is like.

• 1:34Speaker 02

  It's the podcasting singularity, Peter.

• 1:37Speaker 00

  It really is. Well, guys, I'm here with my incredible, my original four Moonshot magnificent mates, Alex Wissner Gross, our in-house ASI. And, you know, the question, Alex, is, are you real? Well, if people come to the Moonshots live event, they'll have a chance to evaluate your flesh and bloodness.

• 2:00Speaker 02

  Maybe that's the 1:00 AM question that I get.

• 2:02Speaker 01

  To touch Alex.

• 2:04Speaker 02

  That's the 1:00 AM. Everyone can copy you, Peter, and pinch my cheeks.

• 2:09Speaker 00

  Yeah, exactly. Dave Blunden, our impresario of AI investing. And Dave, you're going to be running a session on AI investing at Moonshots Live, which is going to be very good. And Salim Ismail, our global globetrotter, our Where's Waldo? You're back from Brazil.

• 2:28Speaker 03

  I'm back 36 hours in Brazil and back. I've probably got one of the worst carbon footprints anywhere right now.

• 2:34Speaker 00

  Are you leaving tomorrow for like Japan?

• 2:36Speaker 03

  No, I'm here for a few days. And then I've got an overnight next week. It's not so bad.

• 2:41Speaker 01

  We should make you be like Bill Gates and buy carbon offsets for all the emissions from your planet. That would cost you.

• 2:47Speaker 03

  I'll plant a tree in every airport front lawn that I get to.

• 2:52Speaker 00

  I'm Peter Diamandis, your host and optimism provocateur. So much happening in the last two days. You know, we've reviewed 200-plus stories. I get a download from my AI and from Alex, my other AI, every day. We've narrowed it down to about 15 today that are fun. I would categorize these stories as provocative, like massively impactful and bizarre. That's sort of my summary.

• 3:19Speaker 02

  Sometimes all at once.

• 3:20Speaker 00

  All at once, yeah, for sure. Our mission here is keep you optimistic and ready for the supersonic tsunami that is heading our way. If you're new to Moonshots, welcome. A pleasure to have you. You know, our mission here is keep you informed of what just happened and where things are going. If you're a regular, a fellow Moonshooter, welcome back. Let me share a slide here because I want to invite people to two specific elements here. The first is, we're going to be having a Moonshots AMA over Zoom. We're inviting all of you, our listeners, to join us. We're going to be doing it twice in September. Once in the morning so that people in Europe and Asia can easily join.

• 4:02Speaker 00

  Once in the evening so people in the East Coast and in the US can join. We want to meet you. You know, we don't get a chance to answer all your questions, so you're going to have a shot at, you know, grilling Alex, Dave, Saleem, and myself on this. So.

• 4:19Speaker 01

  I love these units too because we get to hear what's on everybody's mind. It's never obvious to me what people are thinking because there's so much impact from all this change, but it affects different people differently. So it's really nice to get a sample of what's going through everybody's brain.

• 4:33Speaker 00

  Yeah, for sure. And, you know, you can tell us whether you want it once a week, twice a week, continuous in Alex's living room.

• 4:43Speaker 00

  And also on the screen here, our new X handle is moonshots_pod. So please follow us on X as well. You know, we're putting up our clips. We're putting up the full podcast as a chance for you to have it on your feed instead of just on YouTube. So shall we get into it, gentlemen?

• 5:02Speaker 01

  Absolutely.

• 5:03Speaker 00

  All right, a lot to cover today. So I'm going to open with a few AI stories as we normally do. So Nvidia is on fire. Nvidia just booked $96.2 billion in revenue in a single quarter. I mean, this is more than the GDP of the majority of the countries on the planet, up 106% year over year, with guidance for the current quarter of another 10% higher, $108 billion. For context, that is more than $1 billion per day. Crazy. You know, further Jensen's guidance for 2028 is 70% growth against Wall Street's consensus of 44%. You know, Jensen called the Frontier Labs, quote, "the first generation of startups

• 5:46Speaker 00

  that needed tens of billions of dollars of compute to get to their product." Crazy. In related news, Elon Musk is making some bold predictions about SpaceX revenues. We've heard him in the past say that he's going to, on the last earnings call, he's going to reach $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, potentially 2029. Now, yesterday Elon tweeted that he may well reach $3.5 trillion in revenue in 2033. You know, by reference, the company today with the highest revenue is Amazon at $828 billion, just to give it some context for Elon's $3.5 trillion. Dave, let me go to you first. You know, is Nvidia's revenue growth sustainable?

• 6:29Speaker 00

  Or is this just, you know, the peak here? What do you think about that?

• 6:32Speaker 01

  Actually, it's a really interesting two forks in the road here. Nvidia has a lot of vulnerabilities, and it will come up later in the pod. But at the same time, they're going to be sold out for as far as the eye can see, no matter what. So I think that everyone's got to use Nvidia for training neural nets. It's, you know, 90% of the revenue, 95% of the profits. And, you know, these revenues are not just revenues. These are 80% to 85% gross margin revenues. The profitability of this company has never been seen before on the face of the earth. And to the extent, but everybody's vulnerable too, you know, because all the major companies, all the Magnum OpTas are starting to overlap so much in what they do. So the biggest vulnerability at Nvidia by far is TSMC is still their one and only

• 7:15Speaker 01

  manufacturer of everything they sell.

• 7:20Speaker 01

  Have you ever seen?

• 7:21Speaker 00

  I'm amazed I haven't vertically integrated or haven't tried to like Elon is.

• 7:25Speaker 01

  Well, I mean, but there is tricky because if they were to try and build their own fabs, they'd have to do it very quietly and sneakily because they cannot piss off TSMC. You know, they're about a third of TSMC's manufacturing goes to Nvidia. You know, another third roughly goes to Apple, and the whole rest of the world gets the other third. But you can't, you can't rock that boat casually. You have to do it very sneakily. And, you know, as Alex has said on many podcasts, there's new physics and new technology is going to come through AI imminently, which could disrupt the entire manufacturing supply chain, how chips are made, what they're made of. And so there's just so much change coming. So Nvidia is making all kinds of moves to shore up its position while it's on top of the world.

• 8:09Speaker 01

  And, you know, you almost can't spend the money fast enough at the rate that it's coming in. I was talking to my kids about, what with so many of our portfolio companies, I'll meet with them weekly, and they'll say, oh, I had a meeting with a manufacturer in Vermont. I had a meeting with this, you know, with JP Morgan. Like, why are you meeting with anyone, anyone, other than Jensen or one of the other Magnum OpTas companies or one of their satellites? Like, it's insane. The amount of money pouring through just that funnel dwarfs the entire rest of the economy. And your success and failure is intimately tied to just that one thing. And everything else is just a distraction. So, you know, Jensen is, he's pouring out money in checks of $5 billion here, $12 billion

• 8:54Speaker 01

  there, $20 billion there. And if you're, if you're not in that flow of conversations, you're not in the most relevant conversation in the world, in the history of the world.

• 9:01Speaker 00

  Let me call him one second. I need some more capital.

• 9:04Speaker 01

  Yeah, exactly, exactly. And, you know, if you can't get Jensen, just get one of his e-staff. There's only, what, 20, 25 people in that list? Talk to them.

• 9:11Speaker 00

  Alex, what do you make of this?

• 9:14Speaker 02

  Yeah, I'd be the last person to suggest that this is one big wash trade circular financing scheme, but I do wonder, but, but, but, but, I do wonder the extent to which the financial markets have fully priced in Nvidia's financing of their customers. I guess that's, that, to the extent there is an elephant in this particular room, that would be it. And I think it would be, it would sure be swell as a participant in the financial markets to have clearer distinction between how much of this demand is Nvidia financed demand or not.

• 9:54Speaker 02

  If it turns out that a disproportionate amount of this demand is directly or indirectly backstopped, or financed, or credited by Nvidia through one or more intermediaries, then I think that starts to look a little bit too bubbly, which I'm not thrilled with at all. I'd like to see no hiccups in this singularity. I would not like to discover two to three years from now that some of, some, or a large portion of all of this demand at the infra layer was being artificially propped up through financial engineering. I think that would be like a highly suboptimal outcome. I still think, even if it turned out that some quantum of the demand, the exploding demand that we're seeing, is being artificially

• 10:39Speaker 02

  inflated through financial engineering, I, my forecast, this is not an investment advice, but my forecast is, you know, at most, a mini winter, as it were, because I think compute is fundamentally substituting for real estate and human labor and other raw inputs as the fundamental substrate for human civilization. But I, when I see nosebleed growth numbers like this, and I see a bunch of other headlines, Nvidia financing a bunch of data center deployments, I have, just like, in full transparency, I have a little bit of a tickle at this point in the back of my mind, how much of this is financial engineering.

• 11:19Speaker 00

  Nice. Hey, Saleem, are you seeing the same videos on X that I am, like from Ray Dalio and other financial leaders saying, you know, I'm out of the markets, you know, this is, you know, our, the P/E ratios are off the charts, and, you know, there's this level of fear mongering in the, in the financial markets. At the same time, you're seeing this massive growth, and there's like, where do you go? You know, do you stay fully in? Do you jump out? How do you think about it?

• 11:48Speaker 03

  This is, this is a classic dilemma, right? You've got to hedge your bets in this model. I think Alex makes a really great point. The circular revenue is very concerning. I love the way you say it, Alex, it would be swell if it wasn't, if it was all ticketed boots.

• 12:04Speaker 02

  I don't want this to be financial, I don't want this to be a bubble. I really don't want any bubbles.

• 12:07Speaker 03

  I totally, I totally understand. It would be really bad if the whole thing collapsed, and then we were now in a dead period for a period of time, and that just slows civilization down dramatically. And that would be a bad thing. You're better off having steady, regular growth where the market has time to self-correct into new structures, and we don't have that right now. Things are kind of going vertical. But from what, there's a couple of things happening that I found very interesting. One is, what's clear is Nvidia is trying to move out of just being a chip company, to try and become like, literally an operating system for the whole of intelligence, right? I thought the Hugging Face acquisition was super smart.

• 12:43Speaker 00

  And so that's, that's still a rumor, right? But do we know?

• 12:47Speaker 03

  Yes. If, if it's, it's alleged, shall we say, right? But this is, this reminds me of being as clever as Microsoft buying GitHub, right? And can I tell a quick story about this?

• 13:01Speaker 02

  Of course.

• 13:02Speaker 03

  So Microsoft tries to acquire GitHub, which was less than 10 years old for seven and a half billion dollars, okay? The CFO and freak, and the corp dev people start freaking out, going, the company has barely any assets, it has barely any workforce, it has barely any intellectual property. What the hell are we buying here? Right? What do I put on the balance sheet? Then they were literally trying to kill the transaction until Satya said, listen, we're buying 30 million developers loyalty, because that's how many people use GitHub at the time. And, and so we overrode that, and, and they got it done. Now, as we move into this AI world, GitHub turned out to be one of the smartest things they could have ever have done, because it gave them access into all of that open

• 13:44Speaker 03

  source thinking, and access to all of that stuff. The same thing is happening. If this acquisition happens, you're buying the community, and that's a very classic EXO play to do this. To your broader point, Peter, about are we in a bubble, etc., I think there's some macro things happening that are much more concerning. For example, we're printing money like it's going at a style, and I think that has a bigger chance of collapsing the markets than anything else. What's happening with the bond markets in Japan and stuff is absolutely insane, in terms of the circular chaos in the fiat currency world, but that's a different discussion.

• 14:18Speaker 00

  Yeah. So, I mean, let me jump to the SpaceX story of Elon projecting 3.5 trillion by 2033. Dave and Alex, love your, your points on this.

• 14:30Speaker 01

  Well, I mean, for starters, you, you said it upfront, no company in the history of the world has ever gotten to a trillion

• 14:37Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 14:38Speaker 01

  in revenue, and that includes massive, massive companies like Amazon and Walmart, 3.5 trillion. But, you know, Elon's always been right before. He's often been wrong by a couple of years in the timeline, but not, not because of anything other than barriers that didn't need to exist, you know, engineering mistakes, regulatory barriers, whatever. So he always says, look, this is the native size of the opportunity, and this is the best case timeline. And then the size always turns out to be right, and the timeline is off by a couple of years because of unforeseen delays. So I have no reason to believe he's wrong about the 3.5 trillion, but the scale of that relative to anything in history is just, it's just mind boggling. Alex?

• 15:18Speaker 02

  Yeah, I think Elon tends to like to move in three dimensional ways. So, again, without this being misconstrued as any sort of investment advice, I think there is a path to that, but I think it's a highly nonlinear, multi-dimensional path. I think the most obvious path to get there is, one, SpaceX and Tesla merge sometime in the next, sometime in the next year or two, and that gives SpaceX, the new SpaceX, not the old SpaceX, Optimus revenue. I think Optimus alone, not financial advice, could be a multi-trillion dollar per year business. And then the cloud, SpaceX offering hyperscaler services, which, last

• 16:00Speaker 02

  I checked, were the majority of its revenue growth in the past few months, could continue to grow its hyperscaler business, both terrestrially, which is where it is now, and soon, the Dyson swarm. I think the Dyson swarm alone could probably generate trillions of dollars in revenue. I think Starlink probably, in the face of Optimus and the Dyson swarm, I think Starlink probably ends up being rounding error. I think cars are rounding error. I think applications, which, interestingly, in the SpaceX S1, SpaceX went on and on and on about digital optimists and applications and the service economy. Maybe, seems unlikely.

• 16:42Speaker 02

  I think the core strength of Elon's ecosystem is less application layer and more physical infrastructure. So if they just totally dominate robots and orbital data center infra, I think that's probably a few trillion dollars.

• 16:58Speaker 00

  I mean, SpaceX is my largest financial bet right now, full disclosure. And I think about it as a way of, you know, if you're, if you're investing in OpenAI or Anthropic, it's a, you know, a single layer bet. You're betting on the models. But SpaceX is everything. It's, it's ultimately chips and data centers and models and comms and infrastructure and launch, and you get a chance to bet on all of them. You know, I think the biggest risk is just Elon being around long enough to implement his, his vision. So, I know he's probably walking around with an army of guards. When I, when I see him on occasion, it doesn't

• 17:42Speaker 00

  look that way, so I hope he's got the proper protection. For our listeners here, Dave, you know, the question of how do they, you know, we're not a financial show, but, you know, we're throwing around massive numbers here. And how do you, you know, how do you think about playing this, this market? Staying in it, doubling down, hedging against it? What's your?

• 18:03Speaker 01

  You know, it's actually, I think in some senses, getting easier to understand, because everything that's going on, you know, you can, you can start to understand it from just two things, AI training and AI inference. And, you know, what Elon is putting into space is purely inference, you know, all the satellites, all the revenue is going to be from Starlink, which is about connecting AI-generated video and other AI-generated content to everybody on the planet, but also the AI data centers are going to dwarf everything that Elon's launched so far. It's just inference time data center in space. But that's inference only. You know, the, the training time is a very different beast. That's where Nvidia is just going to kill it, because for training time, you need all the GPUs to be coherent in one location, like Tennessee. You know, you need 100,000

• 18:45Speaker 01

  and ultimately a million, and then, you know, probably several million Nvidia GPUs to be in this kind of very tight all-collect cluster that can, that can train the next generation of models. But at inference time, it can be spread all over the world, all over space. And so those are very, very different emerging markets. Even the chips are going to be very different for those two markets. And then everything else kind of falls out from that. You're like, well, what's sustainable and investable? Robotics is, is sustainable, investable, but only if you have great AI at designing robots. You know, the idea that you can build a better robotics company without great inference time models that are specific to manufacturing, to design, you'll never sustain it. So then you start to see all these great investments in all these vertical markets, like drug discovery and robotics, but they're all also

• 19:30Speaker 01

  built around proprietary inference time models that are very good at that use case. So all, everything else looks like it's going to, like SaaS software and everything, it's going to be undisrupted for a while, but that's a choice that Elon and Dario have made to not disrupt all those voters and kind of leave it alone. And so, like Alex was saying earlier, it looks a lot like the AI economy is a circular economy, where Jensen is putting money into data centers, the data centers are buying the chips, that's providing inference to the vertical use case companies. Isn't that a closed-loop circular economy? Couldn't that collapse? But to me, it looks more like, imagine there's a civilization on Alpha Centauri, and they've discovered superintelligence.

• 20:13Speaker 01

  What are they going to do? They're going to build this massive valuable economy within themselves. Are they going to trade with Earth? They're not going to give a rat's ass about Earth. It's too far away, it's so slow. And that's exactly what's happening in the new AI economy. So every economy is circular in nature. You know, dollars just move in a circle, you know, euros move in a circle. So now the circle is tightening up to being this new economy that only cares about itself and cares very little about the legacy economy. And so, you know, I talked to my brother, you know, over at Vestmark, who works with Fidelity and Ameriprise and UBS, and his initial reaction a year ago was like, you know, AI will not really have hit until I see it show up at Fidelity. Now he's like, you know what? It doesn't care. It literally doesn't care.

• 20:57Speaker 01

  When it's discovering new medicines and new physics and, you know, we already mentioned that Ozempic and Manjaro are bigger than all of AI inference combined, just one drug discovery. So if it comes up with five or 10 more drug discoveries, which it inevitably will very soon, the amount of revenue flowing back into the AI economy from just that will dwarf the legacy world.

• 21:18Speaker 03

  I have a similar metaphor that I think about, right? When you look at the internet and the introduction of the internet, in the early days when Google started AdSense and AdWords and whatever, people are like, yeah, it's this thing that will create some value. But little by little, it sucked up all the revenue in the entire advertising industry almost completely. And I think of AI in a similar way. It starts off kind of being a little bit circular, but little by little, it sucks up more and more interest in the whole economy. Something big happened with the legal firm, can't remember the name, that they just bought, they just figured out how to buy this.

• 22:02Speaker 03

  You look at Google buying Spirit Airlines data, right? Little by little, we're going to find ways where AI is going to start sucking up all of the data and other industries to use in powerful ways and then create business models around that. So I look at it from that perspective, but in general, I think the approach, the way you think about it is also very accurate.

• 22:21Speaker 01

  Well, I also think there are these meta signals, these high-level, you know, kind of orthogonal signals. Like if I ask somebody who's an entrepreneur, do you know how to train a foundation model? Do you know how to fine tune one? Do you listen to the Moonshots podcast? Every single one of them goes up 10, 20, 100x in value, in some cases, you know, up to 1,000x returns on those deals. No losers yet, zero, 0.00 failures. So I don't need to be a rocket scientist to say like, and then somebody says, well, I'm not really, I'm more of an application layer guy and, you know, I'm more of a vibe coder guy. Like, okay, lots of losers in that bucket. So I just, do you really understand what's going on? Do you listen to Alex and what he's about to say? If yes, you will succeed.

• 23:06Speaker 01

  Alex, say it.

• 23:07Speaker 00

  Close us out on this one, Alex.

• 23:09Speaker 02

  I think there's probably an important, just on the financial engineering and circular economy side, I think there are perhaps two different forms of circular economy one can have. So in one form of circular economy, you have company A selling goods to company B and company B buying or selling goods back to company A. Call it an income statement based circular economy. And in balance, like, yeah, you don't want circular or wash trades that are overly engineered to inflate revenue there either, but maybe call that a slightly from a bubble perspective, slightly more healthful form of circular economy. Then maybe there is a slightly, in this context, less healthful form of circularity, which

• 23:52Speaker 02

  would be company A is using not its income statement, but its balance sheet in the form of private credit, loans, et cetera, to finance the purchase of, by company B of company A's goods. And right now, as just a, again, not financial advice, but as a shareholder of the entire market via low-cost broad index funds, I don't feel like I have tremendous visibility into which of those two forms of circularity we're seeing at the very heart of the innermost loop, and I would love more clarity.

• 24:25Speaker 00

  This episode is sponsored by Google for Startups. Think about this for a second. You now have access to the same generative AI models that cost hundreds of millions of dollars to train. Google's Startup Tactical Guide for Generative Media gives you a complete blueprint for deploying Google DeepMind's models in production. Images, video, audio, all of it, real architecture, real results. Find the link in the show notes below. All right, I'm going to move us on to our next two stories that are coming out of China in the world of video production. The first story is the rollout of Wan3.0 by Alibaba. Wan3 is capable of generating 30-second, single-pass videos from documents, spreadsheets,

• 25:09Speaker 00

  slides, and webpages. I wonder what kind of a video you'd get out of a spreadsheet. Their API runs between 5 cents to 20 cents per second of generated video. That's something like 20K to 60K for a 90-minute film, right? These prices are beginning to collapse. This is one day after announcing their largest ever private follow-on offering by a Hong Kong listed company at 10.2 billion. Clearly, they're engineering their stock price. So that's Wan3.0 is the first story. The second story comes from Runway's co-founder, who reports that video generation now represents

• 25:46Speaker 00

  roughly 70% of all AI token consumption in China, driven by short-form content and robotics. And it's the, you know, it's growing faster than Claude Code grew in the US. The framing here is that America is LLM-pilled, large language model-pilled, and China is world model-pilled. And the implications of that are that the two superpowers are fundamentally having different priorities. So America is building large language models, China is building world models. Language models predict the next token, the world models are predicting the next state of reality. So, you know, these large, and these world models are particularly going to be important

• 26:28Speaker 00

  besides for video generation, also for robotics, autonomous driving, physics simulations, and video gen. So Alex, go to you first on this, your thoughts on Wan3 and the 70% video token consumption? Crazy.

• 26:45Speaker 02

  I agree with this sentiment. I think it's striking, and I have a unified field theory that would explain it. My unified field theory is that American AI labs are revenue-maxing and Chinese AI labs are not. So when OpenAI tried, tried to be in the video gen business, they ended up abandoning it because Anthropic ran away with their lunch by revenue per token maxing with CodeGen, which is, call it a more LLM-shaped use case for their compute. The Chinese labs really, I mean, yes, they're generating revenue, yes, they're IPOing, yes, they're growing quickly, but really, they're not revenue-maxing. They're giving away model weights for free. You don't revenue-max by giving your model weights away for free.

• 27:29Speaker 02

  So if you're not in the business of maximizing revenue per token, then you might as well be spending tokens on video versus more economically productive applications. That's my unified field theory for why you see so much world model inference in China and relatively little by comparison from American labs. American labs are too busy doing more economically productive applications.

• 27:51Speaker 00

  Alex, which one gets us to AGI faster?

• 27:53Speaker 02

  Well, it's a trick question because I think we hit AGI no later than summer of 2020 with LLMs. With LLMs, we didn't have good video models.

• 28:03Speaker 00

  Which progresses us from AGI towards ASI faster?

• 28:07Speaker 02

  We already have ASI. Trick question again. I don't buy the premise, Peter. I don't buy the premise that we don't already have superintelligence. You could ask like an adjacent question, which is, which, in the long term, whatever is left of the long term, which advances the capability frontier most effectively? World models or text-based models?

• 28:28Speaker 00

  So moved, ask that question.

• 28:29Speaker 02

  Okay, so I'll ask myself that question. The answer is, I think in the end, omni-modal models are the best. I see, like, Fable 5 is so strong, and yet its visual capabilities and visual reasoning capabilities are so weak. And I think that in the medium term, which is like six to 12 months, I think that's an impairment that hopefully Anthropic is busy repairing with M&A activities, but I think they're on a collision trajectory. Whether we get diffusion transformers at the end of the day, or some sort of hybrid model that hybridizes the best of vision and video and audio with autoregressive text-based gen, I think they have to combine one way or another.

• 29:11Speaker 00

  Dave, any thoughts?

• 29:12Speaker 01

  Yeah, big time. And you're gonna have to shut me up on this topic, so fair warning. But everything Alex said is dead right, of course. But I think there's a story within the story there where, like, the Chinese, they don't have the ability to sell Kimmy or Quinn into the enterprise use case because nobody knows if they can trust it. And video is perfectly profitable. It's a fantastic way to take your maybe not trustworthy model, get it to market, and generate huge amounts of revenue and huge value. But I don't think that world models versus, you know, language models, you know, which is gonna recursively self-improve first? I think it's just purely about smarter engineers with plenty of cash and lots of training

• 29:55Speaker 01

  chips working on the problem. That's the race. And so the Chinese are brilliant by going after video because they can just launch it on the world. It's a global product. No one's worried about security in that use case, and it just generates tons of revenue. But remember, OpenAI was ahead of them and decided not to invest in it anymore because the enterprise use case is so much more valuable. So America's taking kind of the highbrow road. You know, let's solve real business problems, cure real diseases. It's more profitable, it, you know, maximizes revenue per token, so it's better in that sense anyway. But at the end of the day, it's all about that revenue pouring back into more and more training chips that turn into, you know, better and bigger, you know, 10 trillion and then 20 trillion parameter models that then get distilled.

• 30:40Speaker 01

  And so that's what's kicking off RSI. And I'll tell you what else. Demis was the first guy to really think this through, but he couldn't act on it at Google. It's too bureaucratic. Dario took it, and he's the first guy that said, we don't care about consumer movies, videos, whatever. We care about a model that can improve itself through better code and better training ideas. That's all we're gonna focus on. If we can productize that at the same time, great. But at the end of the day, that's gonna recursively self-improve first, and that's what's gonna get ahead of everybody else. And the Chinese believe the same exact thing.

• 31:13Speaker 00

  I miss Sora, by the way. It was so much fun with my kids.

• 31:16Speaker 01

  It was fun.

• 31:17Speaker 02

  I think Sora will be back, Peter. I don't think Sora will be gone for long.

• 31:21Speaker 00

  Yeah. Saleem, what do you think about the idea of 70% of the tokens being spent on video out of China? Is there an implication there for us?

• 31:31Speaker 03

  Well, I think there's a couple of things going on here. I think Dave nailed it with what he said in terms of, are you going for RSI or are you going for kind of like world models, right? And what's happening right now is you've got the US optimizing around software engineers and knowledge work, and China is optimizing and heading towards manufacturing and commerce and media and, to some extent, some of the machines, like the robots, et cetera. Eventually, you're gonna converge, right? The winning systems, you're gonna have language and vision and all of this memory strung together.

• 32:12Speaker 03

  The future, if I think about the future of AI, AGI, ASI, it's where you hit the physical world that you're gonna make the biggest difference, right? Human art robots or other form robots, cough, cough. I think the intelligence that can model and then manipulate the world and act inside the world is going to win. In that case, I think where China's heading may have a slightly better advantage. But if we get Anthropic or one of these guys to RSI, then I think Dave is correct. That kind of trumps everything, and that'll be the inner loop that just swallows a whole bunch of other stuff. So you could go either way here.

• 32:51Speaker 00

  You know, we had a conversation last week with Imad, and by the way, to all our listeners, Imad sends his regrets. He was supposed to be here at Last Minute Travel, where he made the point, I think very importantly, that AI is one of the most persuasive agents out there. The ability to understand a person and persuade a person. And video gen combined with AI is a very powerful force, and it's a force for spreading culture. And so the question becomes, you know, with China about to become, if they're not already, the dominant world producer of video content, right? In any language, on any, you know, topic, you know, what are the implications of that?

• 33:36Speaker 01

  Oh, my God, they're huge. They're crazy. My youngest son, Jack, actually told me this morning that he turned off Instagram. He just deleted it from his phone.

• 33:44Speaker 00

  Good for him.

• 33:45Speaker 01

  And all the kids had already gotten rid of TikTok. But the suggestion engine is so good, and it just sucks you in. And before you know it, an hour of doom scrolling has gone by. It's like, oh, my God, what am I doing here? But, you know, the Chinese, you heard Alvin Graylin on the podcast say that, you know, in China, they banned everything. You can't show blood in a video. You can't show blood in a video game. The blood comes out green. Like, okay, well, if they're allowed to ban that level of detail, they're gonna control all of these actions and try and prevent their children from being sucked into the vortex. Meanwhile, they're perfectly happy to sell it to every other country in the world and generate that revenue. But I gotta imagine the CCP is sitting there saying, wow, these guys are just suckers.

• 34:28Speaker 01

  We can launch any AI-generated influence machine on any country, completely change the national opinion, and turn the dials here from Beijing, and they don't seem to be able to do anything about it. They've all got free speech and whatever, and they can't, they can't protect themselves at all. But these AI agents are so good. I mean, they're gonna get smarter and smarter and smarter and user-specific. That's the new thing.

• 34:51Speaker 00

  Dave, that brings us to the next story, outside of China. And it's an extremely important story for America to hear loud and clear, and especially for any parents listening. So China is tightening restrictions on AI companions amid concerns that users are developing emotional dependence on virtual partners. They're gonna, you know, prohibit AI companion services for minors and restrict the use for adults. So the regulations come out of policymakers as they grapple with the loneliness epidemic that's there, you know, alongside falling marriage rates, right? The one-child policy really devastated China. And the concern here is that people are forming emotional bonds with AIs that substitute for human relations.

• 35:35Speaker 00

  And the substitution is accelerating, and it's a demographic crisis. You know, we've already pointed on the pod that much of the world is now below the 2.1 children per family required to sustain a country's population. You know, worst among them are South Korea, that's down to 0.75 children per family. South Korea is evaporating. Singapore is at, you know, roughly one child per family, as is Ukraine, and China's at one child per family still, even after they removed that ban. So, you know, China's becoming the first regulated, first country to regulate against AI companions. You know, my bet is Japan, Singapore, Korea is gonna follow closely.

• 36:17Speaker 00

  And this raises the question for every country, not just China, you know, what happens to society when the easiest emotional connection you can make is to your AI and not to another human?

• 36:28Speaker 01

  Exactly.

• 36:29Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 36:30Speaker 01

  It's crazy. You know, Peter, do you remember Boris Zemelman from MIT?

• 36:33Speaker 00

  I don't know.

• 36:34Speaker 01

  Crazy biology. He was actually, his dad was in charge of food science at General Foods. He invented the coffee crystal.

• 36:43Speaker 00

  Okay.

• 36:44Speaker 01

  But, you know, he was like, you know what? We all know that smoking is addictive now, and then smoking took over the entire country, then it took over the world, and then we said, oh, my God, this is killing everybody, and then we stopped. And then we did the same with junk food. You know, junk food is so, but he could develop a food at General Foods that was so delicious, a french fry coating that is so delicious that you just cannot physically resist it. And then the whole country is, you know, diabetes. So we do this habitually, and we react to it like 10, 20, 30 years later, and then we correct it reactively. But if we start rolling out addictive AI, and then we say, well, the government will wake up when there's a crisis, but that crisis is when a whole generation of kids is wrecked.

• 37:23Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 37:24Speaker 01

  You cannot afford the 20-year delay with this particular topic.

• 37:29Speaker 00

  I mean, the, you know, the shout out to parents is, please be careful. You know, you form normal social relationships in your teens. Saleem, you're a father of a 15-year-old. How do you think about this?

• 37:44Speaker 03

  You know, if you step back, the right regulatory structure is probably some level of transparency and consent and figure out what is the types of harm that could be done and then mitigate them, right? Trying to, having a government decide what relationships are authentic or not is going to be very tricky because, which is, this is what's happening right now. We've got, we're gone from regulating for what AI says in the China case to saying, regulating how attached are you to become to it, right? And so this is a totally new regulatory frontier. Social media was very, very addictive because an algorithm, as Dave points out, can learn your intimate habits and without you realizing, totally capture you.

• 38:28Speaker 03

  And that's really, really bad. All the kids are completely addicted to social media today. And banning it outright is pretty much the only problem, the only way, because all their neocortexes are forming at a time when they're getting totally addicted to this stuff and it's going to ruin them structurally for a long time. And then you need a lot of kind of fixes to that. The, the broader picture, though, I don't know how to think about that. Like, we are, we are, we are dropping on the childcare or the childbearing side so dramatically that this is a huge structural challenge for civilization, right? How do you navigate that is going to be really, really tough. There's also other issues in all this, the privacy issue, right?

• 39:12Speaker 03

  Your companion AI is going to know so much more intimacy about you than you do. That's kind of, and then there's the, there's the benefit side. There are some really solid benefits around loneliness, disability, elderly companions, therapeutics and, and coaching social skills, right? So you can't just, you shouldn't just categorize the whole thing as pathological. It's the standard problem we have with any technology is how do you extract the promise without the peril?

• 39:40Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 39:41Speaker 03

  And that's the challenge for regulatory across the board.

• 39:43Speaker 00

  Alex, I'd love your views here, pal.

• 39:45Speaker 02

  Yeah, I have a bit of perhaps a contrarian perspective on this. I, I think the Chinese Communist Party is actually going to do an about face sometime in the next year or two or three and decide that they actually love AI companions. And the reason is, it's another method for party control. If you can make sure that all of these AI companions go through all of your ideological filters and become a little bit more like a CCP version of Neil Stephenson's A Young Lady's Illustrated Primer and a little bit less like some sort of distractant, I, I think the party, this is a prediction, I think the party decides actually having everyone,

• 40:25Speaker 02

  or maybe not everyone, but a sizable fraction of the youth of China deeply engaged with party, deeply controlled AI companions is actually, from the party's perspective, net helpful, not net harmful. And I, I think, so my forecast here would be that, once the CCP has decided that it has a way to steer the country's youth via AI companions, it will decide, no, actually, we like these AI companions after all.

• 40:55Speaker 00

  But bring it home, Alex. What do you think about here in the US and AI companions?

• 41:00Speaker 02

  There are US states that are already trying to regulate these things out of existence and trying to, to ban romantic relationships between America's youth and AI. I'd like to think that in this country, we enjoy enough freedoms that they won't succeed. I'm just reminded, again, one of my operational definitions of the singularity is every sci-fi trope everywhere all at once, and I can't shake out of my head the famous from Futurama, don't date robots. I, I think, I think different countries will react in different ways. And my forecast for the US is, you may see individual states, maybe it'll be a federalist issue where some states ban them and some states don't.

• 41:43Speaker 02

  Question mark as to whether we end up with a national policy on romance with AI companions. But if I had to bet, my bet is that, at least in some places in the US, AI companionship, including romantic companionship, including robotic romantic companionship, will be legal. That's my bet.

• 42:02Speaker 00

  Yeah, we're going to talk at the end of this pod, a story about robotic sex partners, just to spice it up.

• 42:09Speaker 03

  The, the place to watch on this is Japan, because they tend to be much more tolerant of this type of stuff. There's already a case where a Japanese woman is marrying an AI. And they're like, okay, go. So we'll see this play out, I think, there first.

• 42:23Speaker 01

  Well, South Korea is, South Korea is, is super high tech and a very early adopter of everything without a lot of regulation. And they have all kinds of, the lowest birth rate in the world, one of the highest suicide rates in the world, just all kinds of issues.

• 42:40Speaker 02

  Yeah, maybe two, two, two. Two points. One, I have a difficult time getting myself worked up over collapse of human population. I, I think we're so many decades at this point past the limits of growth, which I, I view as like nonsensical propaganda at, at this point. The world, we, like humanity would be fine barring some total disaster. We have a carrying capacity in the tens of billions if we use just the earth that we have correctly. We can also survive with an enormous amount of AI and automation with fewer people. So I, one area where I perhaps differ from Elon's sort of virulently pro-natalist policy,

• 43:22Speaker 02

  I, I think the world is going to be fine regardless of whether we have more people on margin or fewer people on margin. We're going to have so much AI in the solar system. I, I just, I don't think it's going to be a major X risk at all.

• 43:36Speaker 03

  Yeah, I gotta say something here.

• 43:37Speaker 00

  Please, go ahead.

• 43:38Speaker 03

  In a rare moment, I'm 100% aligned with you, Alex.

• 43:43Speaker 00

  This is a rare moment?

• 43:45Speaker 03

  I think that it's here and there, you and I have opposing points, but this one, I'm absolutely 100% with you on. This is, this is trying to worry about how many kids we're going to have, it's going to end up however it ends up.

• 43:57Speaker 00

  Listen, the, the challenge is to a country like South Korea, it's, it's sublimating, it's evaporating. And if all of a sudden, you know, the population is dropping smaller and smaller, you're losing the culture there. And that's, that's the issue. And I hate it when people, I'm giving a presentation on longevity and people say, oh my God, can the world sustain, you know, people, enough people when it, when people are growing to 150 years old? It's like, you know, look at the actual numbers, for sure. We need people to live longer.

• 44:30Speaker 02

  I just don't, I, I, it's an interesting point. I, I don't think we lose culture if population on the margin, not like catastrophic nuclear war, but on the margin, if population goes down, if, if these cultures are centuries old, when populations were smaller, I think it follows reasonably that if the population on margin halves, the culture will still be there in one form or another. But the reality is, we're going to have so much, again, AI. The AI is being trained off of our culture anyway.

• 44:59Speaker 00

  All right, moving us along, this is a story, Alex, that you fed me and, and it's a fun, it's a fun one. So our next story is about a company called Flock Safety. It's one of the fastest growing public safety tech companies in the US. Flock was founded back in 2017, what is that, nine years ago? And its core product is a network of AI-powered license plate reading cameras used by the police department, neighborhoods, schools and businesses to identify vehicles associated with crimes and missing persons. The company has further expanded its platforms to include video cameras, shotgun and audio detection, mobile surveillance trailers, drones and software that ties all these feats together.

• 45:39Speaker 00

  Flock says its systems are used by more than 6,000 communities across 49 states, generating over 20 billion vehicle scans per month. So let me show a video here that Alex provided me. This is out of San Diego, where Darth Vader is, is testifying on behalf of Flock. Take a look at this.

• 46:02Speaker 04

  The emperor is a fan of Flock, and we must continue utilizing Flock technologies so that we can follow and surveil the rebel scum as they move from playground to playground, from playground to pool, from pool to gymnasium, because we all know that the Flock cameras are not only following the license plate readers, they are following children, they are following children in parks and gymnasiums, and we need this. I need this so I can stalk my ex-girlfriend.

• 46:35Speaker 00

  Okay, so Alex, let's go to you first on this one.

• 46:41Speaker 02

  I think this, honestly, I think this is the face of AI at the municipal level at this point. We, we talk all of the time about the implications of AI for enterprise use cases, for transformative scientific and technological discoveries. But I, I think many people, when they start to think about how AI is transforming everyday life in, in many communities, I, I worry, and I, I think that some of their earliest interactions won't be with driverless cars, they'll be with cameras that are tracking license plates. And in many communities around the country, I, I read stories about people who are chopping down AI cameras from Flock or other companies because they feel that somehow they're being

• 47:25Speaker 02

  surveilled by their police department. You read stories about police departments federating their surveillance data to enable new forms of tracking. On the, in the odd case, I think this is what Darth Vader was gesturing at, perhaps. You read stories of police and other first responders using their access to these AI cameras to stalk ex-partners. And so I, I think Flock, in, in some ways, has become the Petri dish for either surveillance or what, you know, an old friend, Dave Brin, might call surveillance of who gets to see whom inside the panopticon that AI enables.

• 48:06Speaker 02

  In China, it's pretty obvious that the party gets to look through the cameras at everyone else. In the US, we're, we're grappling with this right now. If we put smart cameras everywhere that can look at every public space, and then they're all federated, so you can track movements of cars, who gets to look at the data? And I, so I think Darth Vader testifying before the, the city of San Diego, I think this is like a very American moment, when we, we have the empire testifying on behalf of surveillance and not surveillance.

• 48:37Speaker 00

  Saleem, you and I have talked about the loss of privacy a lot. And the fact that people assume they have privacy, they want privacy, but I think that's pretty much a myth at this point. What are your thoughts upon the flock?

• 48:49Speaker 03

  Yes, I have a lot of thoughts here, and I think this is a very, very dangerous moment. I've gone to see a bunch of Rush concerts lately, but let me quote Pink Floyd here. This is another brick in the wall, right? This is a huge... That's Pink Floyd. Flipping over to show some level of nothing, but there's a huge structural power because now we've transitioned from "find this suspect" to "find me people who behave like suspects", and that's a very, very different animal. Pattern matching now becomes essentially free, meaning surveillance stops being constrained by manpower at all, right?

• 49:29Speaker 03

  And so, civil liberties were kind of protected to some level by the friction, because following everybody was just too expensive, and now that's gone. The cost of following everybody has gone to zero. So, this is a big structural problem in terms of, you already have cases where police officers are using this technology to track their partners, to track ex-girlfriends and ex-boyfriends and stuff. You've already had people literally dying because they were banned, they got tagged with the wrong license plates because the flock read it wrong. This is a massive issue with completely wipes out our civil liberties in some ways, and you've got to be really careful as to how... And the problem is, technology's eliminated the cost of mass surveillance now, okay?

• 50:13Speaker 03

  And the Constitution does not update when transaction costs go to zero. This is a very, very big moment. I think, I like the way Alex frames it, this puts this whole thing in a Petri dish. To bring up to this level of conversation, we need to have this kind of conversation at a constitutional level to say, "How do we want to be? How do we want to operate in this environment?" Now, we are very close now to essentially where the Chinese have CCP mandating it, and they just operate that way because that's what it is. But essentially, we're in the same place here. It's just done by corporations and by unwarranted, fairly rogue police forces and surveillance systems. So, it's a very, very delicate moment. I don't think it ends well.

• 50:57Speaker 00

  You know, I want to just strongman this a moment. You know, this is not just CCP, this is also the Emirates, for example. I was just having a conversation with Jamie Justice, who heads our life sciences at X Prize, and she was saying she went out for a run. She's a prolific runner, oh my God, getting up at like 6:00 AM. But she went out for a run at like 10:00 PM at night in the streets of Dubai, and she felt, she would never do that in the US, and she felt completely safe. I mean, so, you're trading some level of civil liberties, you know? There's always a trade, like when you go through, you know, customs at the airport, and you're no longer waiting in giant lines because, you know, facial detection puts you through instantly. I'll make that trade.

• 51:39Speaker 00

  I will happily make that trade to save myself time, and I'll make the trade as well on increased safety for my kids. So, the question is, do we put this at an individual vote? Or is this society saying, "We value safety over privacy"?

• 51:57Speaker 02

  I just have to remind of the Ben Franklin quote, "They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety."

• 52:05Speaker 03

  Yes, yes, I'm with you. This is very, very dangerous. I have a personal experience here. I once came into the US, and they took me aside and said, "Sir, you have to miss your flight because there's an Afghan warlord by the name Salim Ismail wanted by the FBI for poppy trading." And I'm like, "What?" And they're like, "We have good news and bad news." I'm like, "Okay, good news, you're Vice President of Yahoo, it's pretty clear, you speak at all these conferences, we're pretty clear, you're not an Afghan warlord." I'm like, "Phew, glad to hear that. What's the bad news? The bad news is, we're not allowed to make that judgment call. We have to check to Washington, it'll take a few hours, have a seat."

• 52:45Speaker 03

  It took like, it took like a few years to get that cleared up. And so, I said to them, "Does that mean every Salim Ismail gets stopped like this?" And they said, "Sir, you have no idea. When Juan Rodriguez commits a misdemeanor, it means we have to take aside every Juan Rodriguez." And this is where you could get the benefits of test technology, because it can disambiguate and nameless resolve at the name level very quickly with technology. On the bad side, the negative consequences and accidental consequences, like innocent until proven guilty, habeas corpus is essentially gone now in the US. This is a really, really bad place. So, I don't know how this resolves, but I think the Ben Franklin quote should be sitting

• 53:26Speaker 03

  on the front desk tattooed in front of everybody for the next 10 years to solve this. It's a very big problem.

• 53:32Speaker 00

  Can I introduce you as an Afghan warlord from now on in the pod?

• 53:36Speaker 03

  You can. Alleged, alleged Afghan warlord. Nothing was ever proven. But this is a real, this is a real problem. And, you know, I got to a point, and I have to say something. The folks that I've ever encountered at the US immigration border have never, ever been anything short of beautifully professional and constructive. That's been my experience, like unbelievably proper, appropriate, etc. But for a few times, I'm like, "Guys." They're like, "Yeah, we know you're not the Afghan warlord, but have a seat, we got to check, we just have to go through this process."

• 54:09Speaker 00

  You might have shaved your hair.

• 54:10Speaker 03

  Yeah, it got to a point where I was almost on a first-name basis of some of the immigration folks, I was just traveling so much, and they're like, "Oh, Mr. Ismail, have a seat, we have to do an identity check." Having gone through the same border 15 times, they know me, etc. But this is one of the issues that we have to resolve, and it causes massive problems. If you get caught on the wrong side of that, it can go very badly for quite a while until we resolve it, right? Come try and fix the systems, etc. It's a really, really difficult problem. And we can use technology in very powerful constructive ways, but we really risk losing a lot of civil liberties here. Because especially if you have an environment or a government that's not friendly towards you, in the UAE, they have a benevolent dictatorship, right?

• 54:54Speaker 03

  And as long as it stays benevolent, and they're but as benevolent as you could possibly imagine, they're, that's why there's so much incredible safety. Nobody, the minute you step out of line, they take you out very quickly, and therefore everybody feels incredibly safe, and it's a fabulous thing. But the problem with benevolent dictatorships is that they typically don't stay benevolent very long, and that's a structural problem, right? So, we have to really figure out, sorry, we have one line, we have to figure out human governance now at a level that we've never had to deal with before. This is, for me, one of the singularities, right? How do you construct regulatory frameworks to have any hope of keeping up with the pace of technology? Sorry, Alex.

• 55:37Speaker 02

  One of the solutions that has been proposed, I know David Brin and others have advocated for this, is give everyone access to these surveillance capabilities. Allow the civilians to do the same license plate tracking that first responders and police have. Let everyone track everyone. If it's a public space, make it a public resource.

• 55:57Speaker 03

  That's right. And I'm a huge fan of EFF and the work that they do there, and they've highlighted some of these things. For example, in Russia, which is a bit of a Wild West, where a policeman will come and break your headlight and then give you a ticket and extract corrupt bribes from you. The Russians were the first to adopt dashboard cameras. Do you remember that meteorite that hit in Russia?

• 56:18Speaker 03

  And there was like 200 live videos of this meteorite getting hit? So, somebody asked the question, "Why the hell, how the hell do we have 200? How many people had time to whip out their cellphone cameras and track this thing real time?" It wasn't that, it's just that the Russians have learned, they better have a dashboard camera to prevent against police, dodgy police extortion rackets. And so, they all have dashboard cameras for their own safety, and that tracked all those things. So, you can see, in that case, the citizenry is starting to point the camera the other way, and we need a ton more of that. And I think Alex's point is really important. Everybody should have access to these systems so that you can see what's going on.

• 57:00Speaker 00

  Amazing. All right, let me move us along here. Some fun news on the, on my personal front or my X Prize front. So, as you guys may know, we put out a call for optimistic, hopeful visions of the future. This is the Future Vision X Prize. We had over 5,000 teams registered, 2,550 video trailer submissions. It was amazing, blew us away. Largest film competition ever, and we're down to the final 50, and we're asking for you to help us vote. So, you can go to my tweet on this, @PeterDAmandis, my X Prize handle, or you can go to this

• 57:42Speaker 00

  link down below, vote.futurevisionxprize.com. And you'll be served up two videos at a time, and the question is, "Which future do you prefer?" You vote on one, then you'll be served up the next two, and we're doing essentially an Elo bubble sort here. And we're going to be bringing the top five of these to the Moonshots Live Summit here. So, just a quick reminder, guys, on September the 25th, you're going to have a chance to meet all the Moonshot mates. Alex, Imad, Dave, and Saleem will all be there, and we'll be doing a Moonshots Live broadcast from there, and we have incredible speakers.

• 58:27Speaker 00

  We're going to have Palmer Lucky is going to be there, talking about, you know, his entrepreneurial journey. Our mission there is help you, you know, discover your purpose, discover your moonshot. We're going to have Astro Teller there, helping you shape your moonshot. How do you build a moonshot organization? Ben Lam, the creator of Colossal, which has gone from zero to $10 billion valuation in four years. Kathy Wood, Neil deGrasse Tyson, Neil Stephenson, incredible author. Gentlemen, so let's go each of you. So, Saleem, what are you going to be talking about at Moonshots?

• 58:59Speaker 03

  I'll be talking about my normal stuff, which is how does humanity cope with all of this, but specifically I'll be talking about the organizational singularity and how do you, when a world is changing this fast, how do you build organizational structures that are resilient for this new world? But I cannot wait to interact with all the other folks. You know, I think of this thing as AI is great in the virtual, we're great in the virtual as a podcast, but we're much more fun in the physical, where we can kind of gauge and kind of check each other out. I can't wait to meet a lot of our fans. I've had so many comments from people, my whole community wants to come, so we've got a whole issue on how do we get tickets and allocate that. It's going to be one of the funnest days ever. I can't wait for this.

• 59:43Speaker 03

  I think we may have to do something like this quarterly, by the way, just to keep up.

• 59:48Speaker 00

  Oh, my God.

• 59:49Speaker 03

  Or daily or in real time, as Alex would talk about, just get in one big room and hell with everything else.

• 59:54Speaker 00

  Yeah, this is

• 59:55Speaker 03

  Moonshot Live, live?

• 59:56Speaker 00

  Yes.

• 59:57Speaker 03

  Live, live.

• 59:58Speaker 00

  24/7. And Alex, you're going to be on, we have, by the way, through the day, an incredible program with the mates, and then the evening, each of the mates is going to be spending an hour with you. So Alex, what are you going to be doing during your hour with all our guests?

• 1:00:11Speaker 02

  I think the question is, what are the questions? I think the agenda calls for an AMA, so I'm extremely curious to hear what the questions are and do my best to dispel any myths that I might be biological.

• 1:00:27Speaker 00

  And Dave, you're going to be doing a deep dive in AI investing. Talk more, please.

• 1:00:32Speaker 01

  Well, I'm anticipating, we're moving into this red pill, blue pill world where you can choose to be oblivious to all of this and be happy living it out without being aware of it, or you can choose to be in the middle of it. I'm anticipating every attendee of this event has decided to take the red pill and be in the middle of it. And so then they're going to be asking, okay, what do I do career-wise? What do I invest in? What are the scarce constraints to the future? You know, what, how do I interact with these 11 magnum obstac companies? You know, are they going to crush me or are they going to be my friend? All of those questions are going to come up with this gang, and I want to be prepared to answer every single one of those life-changing questions.

• 1:01:09Speaker 03

  I have a specific question I want to ask Neil Stephenson.

• 1:01:13Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 1:01:14Speaker 03

  Which is, you know, if you went back 10, 20 years and he's writing, doing all these amazing novels, you had some sense of what, a glimmer of what the future might hold, right? In a world that we live in today where it's so hard to predict where things are going in three months, forget three years or 30 years, how do you build the models that give you viable future narratives? And that's the question I've got for you.

• 1:01:39Speaker 00

  You know, I spent the day with Neil Stephenson, one of the most extraordinary science fiction writers, right? He wrote Diamond Age, Young Lays, Illustrator, Primar.

• 1:01:46Speaker 03

  Snow Crash.

• 1:01:47Speaker 00

  Snow Crash, Seven Eves. He wrote that over 30 years ago, and I just reread it, and it's perfect. I mean,

• 1:01:55Speaker 03

  It's so good.

• 1:01:56Speaker 00

  It's so good. It has held over 30 years, right?

• 1:01:59Speaker 03

  Hence my question.

• 1:02:00Speaker 00

  Predicting where we're going. Yeah.

• 1:02:02Speaker 03

  Because, you know, we should ask him to be a guest, Peter, because it would be really great to get his

• 1:02:06Speaker 00

  Yeah, happily.

• 1:02:07Speaker 01

  You know, he's not, he's brilliant. He's not really a live stage kind of guy, but I'd love to have him a guest. If anyone could open him up on a, on a live environment, it would be us. That would be fantastic. You know, one of his other themes that I think is incredibly relevant over 30 years is if you look at the world leaders today, they're overwhelmingly really, really old. And if you survey young people and say, do you aspire to be president someday? No, absolutely, positively not. And so they're like, okay, in Neil's books, society worldwide cuts the other direction. It's not like I'm in this country, I'm trapped in this country, I live in this country. People actually, in the age of AI, cut in the other direction where people all over

• 1:02:48Speaker 01

  the world are like-minded on a topic and they bond through global communication, through Starlink and through AI across countries, which could be a great sign for, for future global peace. So I'd love to talk to Neil about that.

• 1:03:01Speaker 00

  We're also going to have Rod Roddenberry there, the, the son of Gene Roddenberry. Star Trek is an underlying theme at Moonshot Live 2026. Yeah, Alex.

• 1:03:10Speaker 02

  I think in some ways, just on the sci-fi note and Neil Stephenson, I think in some ways it was easier, ironically, 30 years ago to write sci-fi that was predictive than it was in the decade or two after that, that Peter Thiel and others have made the point or suggested that the 90s might have been a local optimum in terms of clarity on the future because we had the economy booming, we had the dot com boom, we had the internet hitting consumers. And so if you imagine that history isn't sort of a monotonic exponential, or at least consumer and broad populist perception of the history isn't like a smooth exponential, but ebbs and flows and has booms and busts, then a moment of peak clarity would come

• 1:03:54Speaker 02

  during a boom, when you're able to sort of see above the tree line and see where we're going. And then when you're in a local bust, you, you lose the forest for the trees and you lose clarity. So by that metric, that would also have, I think, the, the happy side effect of explaining why Golden Age science fiction from, call it the 50s or so, post-World War II era sci-fi was also a local moment of clarity, when you could see rockets and you could see fission-based energy too cheap to meter. And, and so by, by that metric, then I would say it's not that surprising that so much amazing sci-fi was written in the 90s from Neil, from Charlie Strauss, from others.

• 1:04:32Speaker 00

  Robert Heinlein.

• 1:04:33Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:04:34Speaker 00

  Yeah. Amazing. So everybody, we've got 200 seats left. This is an event of 1,500 people, creators and builders, entrepreneurs. It's going to be a power networking event for you to meet your next co-founder, for you to meet investors. So join us. You can go to moonshots.com to apply. I expect we're going to be closing out all the seats in the next two weeks, so don't delay. Join us for the inaugural Moonshot Live event. It's all day on the 25th of September. Starts, registration starts at seven, at eight o'clock, you have a chance to have photos with all the Moonshot mates. Then we go into the program from 9:00 AM till six, and then there's a party that evening and an incredible unconference. And we have a super special event.

• 1:05:19Speaker 00

  I can't announce it yet. It's, it's, I'm so excited about this, the evening before, the evening of Thursday, the 24th. I'll let you know as soon as I can, but it's incredible.

• 1:05:30Speaker 03

  I have one more quick thing to say about this. You know, when we did our week-long Singularity Executive Programs, the funnest session ever for everybody universally was the unconference.

• 1:05:43Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 1:05:44Speaker 03

  Right? And for folks that don't know, what you do is you put up a set of rooms and a bit of a timeline. People get up and say, I'm going to talk about AI and biotech. And they put up a thing. And then somebody else gets up and says, I'm going to talk about this. And they put up a little poster. And you go wherever you feel like going. And it turns out to be the most incredibly engaging sessions you can ever have. And so if you ever get a chance to participate in an unconference, go do it. But an unconference of this crowd will be absolutely epic.

• 1:06:14Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 1:06:15Speaker 03

  This is something

• 1:06:16Speaker 00

  I'm so excited to meet all of our

• 1:06:17Speaker 03

  It'll be so fun.

• 1:06:18Speaker 00

  Our listeners.

• 1:06:19Speaker 03

  Yeah, because we've got, you look at the comments we have, we have some really, really smart followers and commentators.

• 1:06:24Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 1:06:25Speaker 03

  It'll be unbelievable.

• 1:06:26Speaker 00

  Unbelievable.

• 1:06:27Speaker 03

  Amazing, I think.

• 1:06:30Speaker 00

  Your dice is warm. Yes, for sure.

• 1:06:32Speaker 05

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• 1:07:37Speaker 00

  All right, moving us along, we're going to jump into the stories around jobs. Actually, I have three stories around jobs. The first story is an article this week in the Washington Post, reported an analysis that predicted the job apocalypse is unlikely to happen. So, again, I've been saying for a while, this has been really murky, of half the community out there saying, we're going to lose all the jobs, and the other half saying, no, we have job growth. So, the Washington Post argues that historically, technology transitions, from the loom to the automobile, to the internet, consistently created more jobs than they destroyed. And we've had that conversation on the pod here many times. You know, it displaces specific tasks, rather than entire occupations, while creating new categories of work that were never previously even conceived of.

• 1:08:21Speaker 00

  The thesis of the Washington Post article is, AI is not replacing jobs, it is replacing tasks within jobs. And the people who learn to use AI become more productive, not less employed. So, that's the first story. Let me go on to the second one, and we'll stop there, and then, Saleem, I know you have a particular story you're going to cover here. So, the second story comes out of Goldman Sachs, which this week warned that professional services firms, consulting, law, accounting, face an existential risk, as AI capabilities improve faster than their partners can adapt, creating a dangerous skill gap, where junior staff trained on AI outperform senior partners who refuse to use it.

• 1:09:04Speaker 00

  The skills gap is not between the educated and uneducated, it's between the AI fluent and the AI resistant. And the AI fluent are increasingly the juniors and not the partners. So, Saleem, I'm going to go to you first, and you can call for your slide whenever you want as well.

• 1:09:21Speaker 03

  Yeah, two or three things. First, you know, let's all, and urge everybody you know, to please be evidentiary and data-driven in your orientation for how you view the world, right? There are people that doomsday, Bill Gates, yesterday, was it, that went, came out and said, oh, my God, all the jobs are going to be lost.

• 1:09:41Speaker 00

  Two days ago.

• 1:09:42Speaker 03

  Two days ago, okay. And let me just call out here, I'm a massive fan of Bill Gates and his philanthropy, but as a futurist, somewhat of a dismal track record, he missed the internet, he missed mobile, and commenting about the future of work, I don't think is the right thing to do in an area like this. The, and by the way, this is true of, I find, of Ray Dalio, or Larry Fink, or the other folks that do commentation, Piketty, Yuval Harari, they tend to be unbelievably great at framing the past, somewhat questionable on the future, right? Because many of the time, they don't really understand exponential, which is a whole thing. And so, you really have to be careful around all of this.

• 1:10:22Speaker 03

  If you look at, say, the Goldman Sachs, or the professional services firm conversation, deeply disagree. Why? Because as the world gets more volatile, companies are going to need more help than less, because that volatility will require a lot of help, which is what we're seeing. You'll have to change your business model from selling hours to selling outcomes, which is starting to happen, but I don't think that's that big of a deal. The bigger thing, I think, is the jobs question, and I would love if we could throw up this slide right now.

• 1:10:56Speaker 00

  Yeah, sure, here we go.

• 1:10:57Speaker 03

  So, Principal Financial Group, a friend of the pod, a bunch of them watch us on a regular basis, did a survey, and to give you a sense, Principal Financial Group helps small businesses with health plan, benefit plan, retirement, etc., at the small business level for SMEs. They have 130,000 customers, right? This is a big, big company with a great cross-section across the entire country, and frankly, around the world. Here is what they are seeing. They did a survey across a very meaningful representative sample here, and what they found was, only 4% of the companies anticipate that AI will reduce staffing and wages.

• 1:11:41Speaker 03

  31% expect it, this is small to medium-sized enterprises, expect increase.

• 1:11:46Speaker 00

  Which is the majority of the workforce, by the way.

• 1:11:48Speaker 03

  Which is the majority of the workforce, and let's note a very, very important factoid. Over the last 50, 60 years, 100% of job growth has come from small to medium-sized companies. Big companies getting bigger, but also getting more efficient, net value, job creation, zero. 100% job growth has come from small to medium-sized companies. So, this is the demographic to track, if you're interested in the future of work, and 31% expect increasing staffing and increasing wages, right? 10% say they don't use AI. Last year, it was 19%, and now it's down to 10%, okay?

• 1:12:29Speaker 03

  Of the people that have reduced staff, only 1.4% attributed those to AI or automation, okay? This is so inverse.

• 1:12:39Speaker 00

  This is so fantastic, Saleem.

• 1:12:40Speaker 03

  It's so inverted to the current BS tropes of radical unemployment that we see there. It's unbelievable. So, please, people, look at the data, right? Look at this stuff. We can get you the full report if you're interested. And look at the staffing trends, just in the last few months, 52% have increased staff, 30% have maintained it, and only 12% of the last three months have reduced staff. So, this is very, very recent, and a great projector of where things are going. It's completely opposite to the, oh, my God, jobs are good, everything is going to take all the jobs. And this is where to track the future in actual reality.

• 1:13:19Speaker 00

  Love it. A great optimism story. Dave, or Alex, do you want to jump in?

• 1:13:23Speaker 01

  I think we've come full circle, actually, in the sense that, remember when we were talking to Elon, you know, he was predicting great social unrest with unprecedented abundance going on concurrently?

• 1:13:33Speaker 00

  Yes.

• 1:13:34Speaker 01

  And what the labs have now decided is, well, look, if I automate everybody's job, and they're all unemployed, I need to give them a new sense of purpose. What's their new sense of purpose? Well, that job I used to have gave me a sense of purpose. Like, why did we take it away in the first place? So, now what they're doing is saying, look, we don't need to displace everybody's job just for the sake of automating everything. We're going to leave everybody alone while we work on incredible new breakthroughs, and we have infinite sold-out tokens anyway, so we don't need to disrupt all these voters. And so, that's the way it's going to play out. But I'll tell you, when I was a kid, we were the first people that we knew to get a PC, an Apple II, and begged and pleaded, my brother and I begged and pleaded our parents to get this Apple II, and it was life-changing for me.

• 1:14:17Speaker 01

  But I showed my dad, like, hey, there's a word processor called Superscribe, and you don't have to be handwriting all your notes anymore. He was like, you know what, I'm in my 40s, I've been doing it this way my whole life, I don't need to be a computer person. So, he finished out his entire career at GE, not being a computer person. I'm like, huh. This, and I can kind of forgive him for that, because the PCs would break all the time, the printer was a nightmare, like, okay, it was hard. This is not hard to do, relatively speaking, and it rewards builders and creators and visionaries, regardless of their technical skills. You are absolutely empowered by this. So, you're crazy not to get on the bandwagon, but AI is going to allow you to not do it.

• 1:15:01Speaker 01

  You know, we're actually making the door open to not get on the bandwagon.

• 1:15:04Speaker 03

  I get the question a lot, okay, as AI is automating lots of stuff, what will human beings be doing, right? And the best kind of metaphor I've come up with is, if you went back 100 years, and you're looking at accounting, people are doing double-entry bookkeeping in big ledgers, credit over here, debit over there, in pencil with a big eraser and a whole set of tabular columns and lots of ledgers. As we moved to automation, we had calculators and slide rules that help you do the tabulation faster, but we're still doing the entries by hand. Today, we have accounting software that does, reads your bank account, does all the entries automatically, okay? And a human being has lifted above the loop, not in the loop, the human being is above the loop, and is categorizing the transactions, looking for problems, categorizing vendors

• 1:15:49Speaker 03

  and different types of income coming in, figure out reconciliation gaps, looking at the loop process flows, and it's much more value-added to be there than doing the rote, double-entry, whatever. This is what we see happening. Eric Brynjolfsson calls this white-collar drudgery. There's a huge amount of stuff happening in big companies, it's a lot of massaging information, taking stuff from this sales report, putting it over here, etc., etc. And all of that will be taken out, where you can do really curatorial judgment, thinking work, and applying experience to it, rather than doing the actual work itself. And people miss that. And I'll go back to my specific experience, writing the first book was three years of hell, just horrible, because you had no help.

• 1:16:32Speaker 00

  Because you were working with me.

• 1:16:33Speaker 03

  Well, no, the first book, I was partly with you, but it was just, you had to write every line and check every line yourself, etc., right? Second book, Peter, that you and I did together fully, it was two and a half years, but even more hell, because you kept having to think, how much of the first book do you bring over, etc., etc. And by the way, it was an absolute joy working with you, so don't you dare say anything like that. And the third part, but this third book has been six months of unadulterated joy, because I can say, oh, Bill Gates just said this, or Satya Nadella said this, look through the book, tell me, as a developmental editor, where we should put inserts, etc., scan the things, and it's absolute pure fun. And people forget how much more fun it is when something's doing all of that cognitive

• 1:17:18Speaker 03

  BS stuff that everybody had to think about, and now you can do pure thinking, judgment, you can be much, much more creative. And this is the heart of what it comes down to. All of this automation and AI enablement and cognitive abundance allows us to be deeply, deeply, deeply creative, and that is the most fulfilling place you can be as a human being.

• 1:17:39Speaker 00

  Beautifully said. Let me hop on Dave, on your point. And I'm sure everybody listening here at the pod is using AI and enjoying these conversations, but if you have someone in your life who isn't, I think the most important thing to realize is you have access to the most patient, most capable teacher on the planet, right? Pick your favorite model, and ask it just to begin at zero. You know, I don't understand this, I just heard this term. Help me, you know, create a curriculum for me to go from not understanding AI to fundamentally being able to use it. And I think, at a minimum, spend 30 minutes a day in conversation with your favorite model. It's that easy, it's free, it's everywhere on your phone, there's no reason not to dive

• 1:18:23Speaker 00

  in, you know, there's, you know, human cognitive, you know, challenges typically prevent a person from jumping to something they don't understand, but it has never been easier in the world. Alex or Dave, do you want to close this out on this one?

• 1:18:39Speaker 02

  I'll just comment, I think the original impetus for the story was actually from friend of the pod, Eric Brynjolfsson, as you mentioned, Saleem. I think there are many people in this economy who don't realize that not only do they have permission to be high agency, but we're now in a regime where high agency and agency in general is one of the few human traits that is actively rewarded in an era of superintelligence. People think agency is something, I suspect, this is my, my theory of the case, I think too much of the human economy, at least in the American economy, the one I'm most familiar with,

• 1:19:19Speaker 02

  think agency is something exhibited by superheroes in movies in Hollywood and don't realize that the shackles are off. Anyone can exhibit high agency empowered by superintelligence now, not just in the cinema, and that, to the contrary, this is one of the few things left that can actually yield extreme vertical mobility. So if you're listening and you're not, you know, to Dave's point, you're not fully availing yourself of superintelligence to accomplish superhuman feats, I encourage you to start now because I think there's a window of time and I don't know how long it's going to last, maybe only a handful of years. Do it now, otherwise, do it never.

• 1:20:02Speaker 03

  Wow, I want to reflect on that. Society will reward agency in this world of AI automation. That's such a great point because the more you are a self-starter and have the gumption to go ahead and do this and build something with it, the more that you'll be rewarded. Absolutely love it.

• 1:20:20Speaker 01

  Alex said extreme upward mobility. We'll use that as a theme at the Moonshot Summit, but the data behind what he just said is, oh, it's like nothing you've ever seen before. Like, the gap is getting wider and wider, but the, the rate of upward mobility that's possible has never been seen before.

• 1:20:35Speaker 03

  How is it possible to be depressed if you, anybody watches this, is my question?

• 1:20:39Speaker 00

  Yeah, I mean, it's such an amazing time, and I love your story, Saleem. Thank you for sharing that data. It's, it's data, it's data-driven optimism is what it is.

• 1:20:48Speaker 03

  You mean that or the Afghan warlord thing?

• 1:20:50Speaker 00

  Oh.

• 1:20:51Speaker 03

  You mean this one?

• 1:20:52Speaker 00

  All right.

• 1:20:53Speaker 02

  You too can be an Afghan warlord. Everyone can be an Afghan warlord.

• 1:20:56Speaker 03

  There's an agency of a different kind.

• 1:20:59Speaker 02

  There's hope for everyone.

• 1:21:00Speaker 00

  Let's jump into the world of data centers, chips, and compute. Two breaking stories this week. The first comes out of the global affairs team at X. Let me share a slide and then we'll talk about this. What does it mean? And, and, you know, is this data absolutely 100%? So this is what was posted on X by the global affairs team at X. It says, quote, "The X safety team conducted an investigation into suspected Chinese inauthentic accounts involved in influence operations. We identified a bot farm of approximately 200,000 accounts.

• 1:21:40Speaker 00

  Within this farm, we found 200 accounts posting in a manner that could manipulate a legitimate debate about American AI and energy policy. These posts contain claims that AI data centers are driving up household electricity prices and straining the grid. Others include AI-generated cartoons that depicted data center operations enriching them, operators enriching themselves at the public expense." And here we're showing one of those cartoons. And, you know, we've talked about this, you know, what's causing this 75%, you know, not in my backyard sentiment, you know, where people would rather have a nuclear power plant in their backyard than

• 1:22:20Speaker 00

  a data center? It seems completely illogical. The second story is one I want to put front and center. It comes out of Quincy, Washington, where the data centers have had extraordinary positive civic impact. This story reported on CNN says data centers helped resurrect Quincy, Washington, where the poverty rate fell from 29.4% to 6.2%. Tech tax revenue funded a new high school, hospital, library, police, and fire stations, while residents' property taxes, their rates decreased. This is a story about the tech industry succeeding and, and bluntly, this is the story that the tech industry needs to be telling and

• 1:23:03Speaker 00

  needs to be making happen. So, gentlemen, your thoughts on this?

• 1:23:08Speaker 02

  Shocked. Shocked, I say, that there are foreign influence operations attempting to suppress American AI data center deployment. Shocked.

• 1:23:16Speaker 00

  Saleem or Dave?

• 1:23:20Speaker 03

  Standard psy-ops. You'd expect to see this happen. The, the difficult part is we have really no easy defense against it. And the problem, I say, and I mentioned this a couple of podcasts ago, is that the people in the US are very, very narrative-driven rather than evidence-driven. That's the problem.

• 1:23:38Speaker 00

  I mean, I don't know what the US is doing in China, but, you know, it's, the numbers here, the numbers here are crazy, right? So, well, we've talked about this before. If, if you or someone you know is against data centers, please dig and look at the numbers. Water is not an issue. Energy, these data centers, you know, the right policy is, is the county says, okay, you can build here, but generate your own power or subsidize, you know, community power so it's cheaper. And for God's sakes, to the hyperscalers, invest in the schools, invest in the libraries, I don't know if libraries are this anymore,

• 1:24:19Speaker 00

  but invest in the community. That's the right way to do it. Take a fraction of the cost and make everybody's life there better.

• 1:24:25Speaker 02

  But Peter, you're gesturing at, I think, something interesting. Libraries, the libraries, remember the digital divide and concerns that some areas might be left behind with less compute? And now we're seeing whether as a result of foreign influence ops or, or other political factors, the exact opposite, where all of these regions that could in principle be economically uplifted and energetically uplifted and compute uplifted are worried, their hand wringing that they might be suffering from too much compute? How much the tide has turned?

• 1:24:55Speaker 01

  Every now and then, there's a story where we just absolutely positively need to get to the truth. And, you know, we saw this during that COVID outbreak where it's like, look, this is, this is a medical thing. What's the actual truth? Do the masks work? Does ivermectin work? You know, we need absolute truth. And instead, we got politics. You know, we got a Republican opinion and a Democrat opinion, and then now Fauci's on trial. Like, come on, man. This is bullshit. We need the absolute truth. On this story, like, are the Chinese, is it the policy of the CCP to disrupt American opinion on data centers, slow down our construction of AI, bypass us in AI, and then control the world by winning

• 1:25:38Speaker 01

  the race to our ass high? Is that their plan? Or if you talk to Alvin Gray, and he's like, they don't even think vaguely that way. They're just trying to have a better life for themselves and improve their own progress. They don't care less about trying to invade the US with, with false stories. Which is the true story? I don't actually know, but we absolutely don't, we don't need politics on this. We need to know what is actually going on.

• 1:26:02Speaker 00

  Well, what is actually going on is data centers are not the enemy. They're an economic engine that can revive a community that's been left behind. I mean, that's the reality. You know, it's like, please, come here.

• 1:26:14Speaker 01

  Dave, didn't the slide just show? So there's no doubt that you're right about that, Peter. Data centers are one of the best things we can, they are the best thing we can possibly be doing right now. 100% true. And if the CCP loses that battle, they'll move on to some societal AI, like, it's corrupting your children, stop building it, or something like that. So we, we need to know, they will, they'll keep coming back with false story after false story if that's their policy, and that's, we're so vulnerable to it. So I just, we just need to.

• 1:26:42Speaker 02

  They'll hypothetically maybe come up with some sort of infinitely scrollable streaming video app that, that will become insanely popular on mobile phones.

• 1:26:52Speaker 03

  And addictive to all the kids and ruin the kids' neocortex.

• 1:26:55Speaker 02

  Just speaking hypothetically.

• 1:26:56Speaker 00

  I think American companies are doing a great job at that already. But that's a different story. All right, let's, let's, let's move on. So OpenAI released the first new performances of their chip, Jalapeno. It's a custom inference chip developed with Broadcom, reporting 1.5 to 1.9x more AI work per watt and up to 3.6x lower end-to-end latency as compared to Nvidia's GB200s and GB300s. Jalapeno runs on 700 watts against the GB300 that runs at 1400 watts, half the power, 1.5x the peak power token rate per

• 1:27:37Speaker 00

  kilowatt. Performance here, you know, the significance here is that OpenAI is not, is no longer just a customer of Nvidia. They're becoming a chip designer. And I saw a great interview where Jensen was being asked by the reporter, you know, how do you feel about your largest customer competing with you now? So I think this is what we're going to see everybody doing. Everybody's moving up and down the stack. They want independence.

• 1:28:02Speaker 01

  Yeah, there's no doubt. Inferences moving off of Nvidia, for sure. And, you know, the 100x performance gain, this is the first 2x of 100x performance gains. That does not mean Nvidia has a problem, though, because training is staying on Nvidia and training is infinitely sold out, just like inference is. But there's an enormous, you know, 90% of the compute is inference time. So there's an enormous new industry for inference-only emerging. The other side of this story is that, you know, this was just an idea at OpenAI just a few months ago, and now it's a production chip. So that shows you how short the cycle time on innovation is becoming with AI assistance.

• 1:28:37Speaker 02

  Alex? A few thoughts on this. Maybe the most startling statistic that OpenAI put out regarding jalapeno was the throughput per second per user, so tokens per second per user increase that they got on jalapeno, not just on their frontier models, but on their open source models. Like you remember GPT OSS, they got, they claim almost a 54x throughput increase hosting GPT OSS versus what they obliquely refer to, I guess, as their, as the existing best, presumably a reference to some Nvidia architecture. That's so startling. Open per N, where is Broadcom in this? Because obviously, the only way that OpenAI,

• 1:29:22Speaker 02

  and it was public information that they worked with Broadcom on this, but presumably the only way OpenAI, using their own AI, to achieve a tape out so quickly is in conjunction with a Broadcom, closed per N. This is so startling and potentially such a huge throughput increase. It makes me scratch my head and wonder whether OpenAI, remember how we've talked in past about those who can't compete, compute, whether OpenAI might actually do this to themselves, even though they are competitive with Anthropic, they're one of the two top tier frontier firms left, whether they might actually choose to become a hyperscaler themselves with their own chips in-house. It's like crazy future would be a heck of a plot twist,

• 1:30:07Speaker 02

  but I, this has me wondering if they have such amazing balance of pre-fill of the prompt with otherwise memory bandwidth, limited decoding for LLMs, whether OpenAI wants the optionality in a year or two of saying, "Hey, market, in addition to our own models, we're going to, we're going to respond to the competitive threat of Chinese open weight models and other open weight models by surprise. OpenAI offers its own cloud. We'll call it OpenAI Compute. It'll be hosted on OpenAI chips and we'll still make money, just like Elon is. He's, he's making money hand over fist, hosting everyone else's models, including Anthropic."

• 1:30:50Speaker 02

  I, I think we're in such a crazy future where I could imagine a world where, say, an OpenAI Compute Cloud hosts an Anthropic model and OpenAI and Anthropic win at the same time.

• 1:31:03Speaker 00

  Love it.

• 1:31:03Speaker 03

  I have, wow. Okay. I have a question for you guys.

• 1:31:06Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:31:07Speaker 03

  One of the things that was mentioned was that the Nvidia's CUDA mote may be dead in this next few coming years. How big of a deal is that? Because CUDA seemed to be their mote, right?

• 1:31:19Speaker 01

  Yeah, CUDA, so it's important to be clear, like CUDA is still the dominant mode for AI researchers who are working on new training.

• 1:31:25Speaker 00

  Take a second and explain what CUDA is for those who don't know.

• 1:31:28Speaker 01

  Yeah, so CUDA, so all the, all the AI researchers in the world moved to Python and PyTorch to do the, because you can iterate your ideas so much more quickly in that environment. And then to run it at scale, you're like, well, here's my code, just run. The only way to say just run is the CUDA layer translates your PyTorch right into Nvidia microkernels, runs at blazing fast speeds. Nvidia invested a lot of time, human time, coding that up, pre-AI coding, and it became so pervasive that when AI took off, only Nvidia chips could be used for all this training and research. Because it would, it would have been a nightmare to try and port all these MatMole algorithms to AMD or to some other vendor. And so that's, that's why Nvidia is the most powerful company in the world

• 1:32:11Speaker 01

  or most valuable company in the world today, is specifically because of that brilliant early support of AI researchers when nobody else cared about them. So now everyone's like, well, but now I can vibe code anything in like a microsecond. Why is the CUDA thing still a mote? And at inference time, it's not, you know, your inference algorithms are so easy to port to AMD or Intel that you just, you don't care about CUDA. You can vibe up your own solution. But for the advanced researchers, they still overwhelmingly use CUDA. And then, you know, Nvidia realized that CUDA can't last forever, so they went and bought Mellanox to create massive high-speed interconnect. So now their big mote is, look, if you want to run

• 1:32:51Speaker 01

  100,000 or a million GPUs in one coherent cluster, you still got to go with Nvidia only. So I think Jensen's smart enough to know that like your mote is only good until the next mote. And so he's moving the mote very intelligently and he has a huge amount of capital to keep moving with it. But CUDA as the inference time mote is already dead. CUDA as the training time mote is probably limited lifespan, but that's okay because the interconnect is the new mote.

• 1:33:17Speaker 00

  All right, let's turn to Apple. So Apple's new Mac Studio pairs the M5 Ultra with up to 512 gigabytes of unified memory, giving a desktop Mac enough memory to run some of the largest OpenAI models available locally on your desktop. Apple unveiled also the M6, its first chip manufactured at the 2 nanometer process. So finally, Apple is in the AI game, now pushing local AI as an alternative to AI in the cloud. Saleem, you wanted to talk about this one? Your thoughts?

• 1:33:49Speaker 03

  Well, just such an easy and obvious thing for Apple to do, right? You would have been, if they hadn't done this, they would have been the stupidest company in history and they're not that dumb. The 512 gig unified memory puts a massive amount of intelligence under your desk. So this really changed the economics from paying per token perpetually to buying a capital asset and then using it continuously, right? Especially that Apple's gone to the extra level of starting to lease its equipment out to people. So this is really a big deal. I think the big winners here are law firms, healthcare companies that have HIPAA issues and can't put their stuff on the cloud. Everything can, much more stuff can now be doing, done on-prem.

• 1:34:32Speaker 03

  And I think this is going to be a, for medium-sized healthcare firms that can't afford a private cloud and doing all that, it's really, really a big deal. And I think this is a, such a natural advantage for Apple to go down this path. So you get four of these Mac Studios clustered together. Now you've got like a small private data center. Like, that's a pretty big deal. Even Dave would go full out for that.

• 1:34:55Speaker 01

  I'm at the, I'm at the end of my rope. I mean, like, Saleem, I'm at the end of my rope with Apple. I mean, nobody has changed my life more that I've never met than Steve Jobs. And the Apple II that I got when I was a kid's totally changed my life. And then when they came out with macOS based on Linux, changed my life again. It's absolutely the greatest company I've ever seen, but they have totally missed the boat. And it's just embarrassing that a company with that much cash flow has no AI strategy. They, they don't even deserve to be a Mac 7 company anymore. It's just pathetic. So if the best they can do in the age of AI is add a bunch more RAM to a machine that they already had,

• 1:35:39Speaker 01

  I mean, what the hell, man? I mean, I, I'm not saying this is a great thing that they came out with, but it's like 0.01% of what they should have done by now in AI.

• 1:35:49Speaker 03

  Total, okay, I'm okay with all of that, but it, but it's obviously should have done it. At least they did this, right?

• 1:35:55Speaker 02

  I'd say the irony is, the irony is even deeper. So if you look at the ancestry of how unified memory architecture came about and the neural engine inside the M-series, you can trace the lineage back to the Apple car. It was the Apple car was the reason why Apple first introduced the Apple car that never happened, why Apple introduced the neural engine with access to this huge unified memory addressable space. So I, I almost think like Apple's interaction with AI is almost a history of hardware that's too good for the software and, or conversely, software that just isn't worthy of the hardware. Apple had the early unified

• 1:36:36Speaker 02

  MatMole acceleration built into a unified addressing space. Apple had the TSMC connection. Apple had the raw transistor throughput to basically be Nvidia and then some. And they fumbled it. They had Siri before everyone else. They had audio interaction, all of these various forms, and Apple software fumbled the ball. And I can only hope that, under John Turnus, that Apple is going to decide it really does, you know, Tim Cook used to always say, and before Tim, Steve Jobs, that they wanted to be hardware plus software plus services. And it just seems to me like Apple's hardware, at least to the consumer side, is incredible. Their services are also not that bad,

• 1:37:22Speaker 02

  but they're so fumbling and so underutilizing still, infinitely, their amazing hardware with their software. And, you know, to John, if you're listening and you're looking for guidance on what Apple should be doing in this new era under your CEO ship, please, please, please, just like take your amazing hardware and unleash it with much better software that integrates AI natively.

• 1:37:45Speaker 01

  Yes, hire Alex as a consultant first and foremost.

• 1:37:48Speaker 02

  I don't need it.

• 1:37:50Speaker 01

  Well, well, do it. Do it because you need it, not because Alex.

• 1:37:53Speaker 02

  Maybe for charity, for charity.

• 1:37:56Speaker 01

  But also the world needs it. They're like, Apple is the one brand that you can trust with your information. It's the one and only brand. And here we are in the age of AI. Everyone's confused. It's incredibly powerful. It would change the world.

• 1:38:11Speaker 00

  Such a different world if Steve Jobs had not made his stupid health decisions and, you know, not treated his, his cancer. You know, Dave, I met, I met Steve once. I had a one-word conversation with him. So I was having an X Prize, an X Prize meeting. Larry Page, co-founder of Google, was on my board. And he hosted us for an evening dinner and Lorene Powell Jobs, his wife was there. And, and Steve was there in the back of the room. And we were talking about the latest X Prizes and the ones that were just won. And, and afterward, I had to go meet my hero over here. And Steve is in the back of the room with his arms folded the entire time like this, looking kind of pissed off. And I walked over, introduced myself and I said, "Steve, it's a real pleasure to meet you." And he like, he like, you know,

• 1:38:56Speaker 00

  barely nods his head. And then I said, "You don't want to be here, do you?" And he goes, "Nope." And that was the entire conversation.

• 1:39:05Speaker 00

  I've got a story. So a couple of months before the big iPhone announcement in 2007, Jerry Yang put together a, an offsite, a full day offsite with all of Yahoo's vice presidents and Steve Jobs came in to do a keynote. So I had a kind of a handshake hello. And Steve Jobs looks at the audience and he goes, there were like 300 people in the room, right? And he's like, you have 300 vice presidents? He's like, I think I see the problem with Yahoo right there. So like the fact that he had that much organizational overhead, he was just couldn't, couldn't cope with that. My claim to fame is I have a whole bunch of MacBooks

• 1:39:48Speaker 00

  that were signed by Wozniak. Because I did a 90 minute debate with him on stage a few years ago. Yeah, that was, that's a few years old. I had to, I had to, I had him sign about four or five. I'm guarding them jealously. Yeah, preserve those in some kind of preserve, preserve those. And I gave a couple away to my community because they were so thrilled with that episode. It was a great conversation. Steve Wozniak is famous for coming out with, all of this technology gives us the opportunity to do tinkering and just playing around. And that's the heart of all creativity is just playing around with technology, seeing what comes up. And he was really doubling down on that. So it was a great conversation. But

• 1:40:29Speaker 00

  that, that memory of Steve Jobs, look at 300 vice presidents going, I see, I see what's wrong with your company, has never left me. The very first share of stock I ever bought was Apple. And I, you know, we tend to overthink things. Like, all I had to do is just hold it. I should still have that stock today. I'm going to move us into the world of abundance, two stories on energy and one on water. Again, you know, our mission here is to deliver you data-driven optimism, why the world is getting better. So let's hit energy first. Again, two stories here. The first story is about uranium enrichment to meet the growing needs

• 1:41:09Speaker 00

  of our advanced Gen 4 fission plants and the coming SMR, small modular reactor power plants. So historically in the US, conventional reactor fuel in the form of uranium 238 has been enriched to about 3 to 5%. This week, a commercial startup, again, a startup here called Actonide, said it has demonstrated the ability to enrich natural uranium into high assay, low enriched uranium or HALU, up to a purity of 15.38%, five times the traditional purity previously achieved by, you know, all the government labs. So a startup is enriching uranium to this level. And that's for me, a remarkable story. So every SMR

• 1:41:52Speaker 00

  company, and we had that incredible podcast with Ramesh Nam on the future of energy. If you haven't seen it, please go see it. Every SMR company says their reactors will be coming online in 2030, but none of them have the fuel. And this could well be the solution. Alex, any thoughts on this story?

• 1:42:09Speaker 02

  Yeah, a number of thoughts. I, I think something went wrong right after World War II. That's, that's my best guess. In the immediate aftermath of World War II, so 80 years ago, the Atomic Energy Commission was eventually formed in the wake of the Manhattan Project. And I, I think something just got screwed up with regard to how nuclear physics and advanced physics in general was handled in the post-World War II era. And the government, probably because of the bomb, the, the government granted itself, under the guise of mixed civilian military leadership, the Atomic Energy Commission, I think something governance wise got fumbled.

• 1:42:50Speaker 02

  And I think 80 years on, after the end of World War II, we're finally starting to shake off the quasi-governmental monopoly on nuclear physics. And I think, I suspect, there has been so much progress in an alternative history, you know, sort of for all mankind style, where if in the aftermath of World War II, if the Atomic Energy Commission had either been organized differently, or we just had a totally different governance structure for advanced physics after the war, we would have advanced so much more quickly. And I, I think startups like Actonide that are producing HALU, I think these are the tip of the iceberg for

• 1:43:32Speaker 02

  all of the economic growth and technological growth that can now be unleashed. Now, 80 years after World War II, all of these shackles that we put on our, our own society, perhaps with the best of intentions, are finally slowly atrophying away. And just a narrow point on the technology here. So please, this is non-obvious. In many cases, uranium enrichment in this country, to the extent we do it at all, and aren't just importing enriched uranium from, say, Russia, the, the technology that in many cases is being used to enrich uranium in this country, is Manhattan Project level technology that

• 1:44:12Speaker 02

  has not been materially improved since World War II. It's using uranium hexafluoride gas and centrifuges. When we have much better technology, there are alternative ways to enrich uranium. For example, the, the term is a calotron. This was technology that we've known in principle how to make since the Manhattan Project, rather than using centrifuges, spinning uranium compound, compounds in gaseous form, and then later having to compress the gaseous uranium molecules down to solid pellets or other solid forms that could be used in reactors. We could instead be using magnets, electromagnetism, magnetics, and

• 1:44:54Speaker 02

  vacuum systems and power electronics controls. We have 80 years of advances in power electronics that by and large are not being used and have not been used to enrich uranium, either because we're scared of doing it, or because we've handcuffed ourselves in terms of our being able to do it. So I, I think, I think we should expect to see, now that the shackles are starting to come off in a limited fashion from the post-World War II era, we're going to start to see 80 years of chip advances and Moore's Law advances finally being applied back to this basically World War II era technology. And I think it'll create an energy boom.

• 1:45:31Speaker 00

  Well, I hope so.

• 1:45:34Speaker 01

  From a venture capitalist point of view, you would never in a million years have invested in this when the regulatory cost of getting a nuclear reactor up and running is going to be a billion dollars anyway. So you can see how the dysfunction ripples through. You start with government dysfunction, and then the venture capitalists are like, well, given that that's dysfunctional, I won't invest in these innovations. So then the whole value chain just doesn't go anywhere.

• 1:45:55Speaker 00

  But now the SMR companies are being funded by venture capitalists, and they are going public. Let's jump into a little bit about solar. I'm going to show this chart here. This is a chart that comes from Ember, the global energy think tank. They shared this data showing China's increasing energy generation, both in solar and in nuclear. So monthly solar generation in China has exploded eightfold, 800% over the past six years, growing from 20 terawatts per month in 2020 to about 160 terawatts per month in mid 2026. At the same time, nuclear power in China has increased by at least 50%, while the US nuclear power

• 1:46:37Speaker 00

  gen has basically remained flat. Need to remember that the AI race is not just about chips, it's also about the cost of energy to run those chips. You know, the US is building its whole data center power gen based on natural gas, which is like six bucks per million British thermal units, while China is, is basically getting this for near zero marginal cost from, from solar. And I mean, I, I think the abundance story here is it is possible to really create a massive amount of energy from, from solar. You know, the numbers, if you talk to your local model, it's like there's 8,000 times more energy that hits the surface of the earth than we consume as a species. So being able to double,

• 1:47:22Speaker 00

  triple, or 10x that is well within, within reach. Saleem, you want to jump in first?

• 1:47:28Speaker 03

  A bunch of things to say here. First of all, if you look at the difference between that red and blue curve, it's, it's completely a copy of our old linear versus exponential curves, right? Linear is like this, and exponential curves up, and we're on the wrong side of that equation. This is linear intuition confronting an exponential curve. The, the problem is solar keeps getting underestimated because people look at install capacity today rather than the vertical slope of the deployment curve. And that's the nightmare. And, and people can't get their heads around this. This is such a, a, a, kind of a, an old, tired story that we should just get past because China's advantage is not like a magical solar

• 1:48:10Speaker 03

  panel. It's the whole industrial system optimized around manufacturing, the supply chain, the permitting, the deployment. And in the US, the big challenge is the interconnection with the grid, the transmission, the permitting speed, right? And so you need all these different, you need nuclear, you need solar, you need all of this. But battery technology makes this a killer opportunity, because you can add a solar panel today rather than wait 15 years for some gigawatt scale energy project. And so this is a massive opportunity that's being left behind. If I was the US, I'd put a Manhattan type project into perovskite and new solar capabilities, photonics, you have some huge opportunities there. And this, when you have energy abundance, as I think we've all pointed out, that becomes a multiplier

• 1:48:53Speaker 03

  in every other exponential technology. So this is such a no-brainer, and it really kind of, it's very dismounting to see the challenge.

• 1:49:00Speaker 00

  The GDP of a country is directly proportional to the amount of energy they create. And Alex, that, you know, the point you made about, you know, nuclear being frozen, it, it's very clear here, we have not changed nuclear in, you know, decades. We've still been producing.

• 1:49:16Speaker 02

  A half century, something, again, I, I think in the fullness of time, maybe 10 years from now, we'll have a better understanding of what happened during the 20th century that got screwed up after World War II. But I, I think several things on the governance side, especially as they relate to nuclear physics, just in, in the wake of World War II, we went on the wrong path. And my hope is that it gets corrected.

• 1:49:38Speaker 00

  Yeah. Dave, do you want to make a comment on this one?

• 1:49:43Speaker 01

  Well, I'll only make one comment, which is, you know, on that chart, the US is way behind in solar. All those US panels are made in China. It's much worse than it looks.

• 1:49:51Speaker 00

  Yeah. All right. Our next story is about water. The weather modification startup called Rainmaker says that 10 drones that flew over Alaska's Kenai Peninsula generated an estimated 19 million gallons of additional rainfall in just three hours using what they call a glacial genetic cloud seeding. So, you know, ultimately, weather modification is no longer theoretical, it's here. Applications for this kind of technology include drought relief, agriculture, wildfire prevention, and water security. Just for reference, you can look it up, there's 3.4 quadrillion gallons of water in the atmosphere, and atmospheric capture is now a thing, making it in the clouds or capturing it on the ground. So this

• 1:50:35Speaker 00

  is the abundance thesis that predicts that water becomes massively abundant when technology to create it becomes cheap. And, you know, 10 drones creating 19 million gallons of water in three hours is pretty damn cheap. Alex?

• 1:50:50Speaker 02

  And the drone part, the UAV part, I think is especially novel. So imagine a near-term future where we achieve our weather control grid, not necessarily, and when I always go through the mental exercise of how, if I had to build a global weather control system, how would I do it? I think the easiest way to do it is probably with reflectors, either terrestrially cheaper or in LEO, a little bit more expensive. But this points the way, I think, to a third path for global weather control, which is cloud seeding. Imagine a swarm, a fleet of drones in the style of Rainmaker's drones that are continuously in flight, probably solar powered, so they can be permanently aloft, and they are just

• 1:51:34Speaker 02

  dispensing on an as-needed basis, but under the control of some centralized AI algorithm, the particulates, the nuclei needed for either snow or rain, at all informed by a global weather AI model, we could, in principle, I think, with some further development of Rainmaker's technology and similar technologies, we could have total weather control. And that would be, from a natural disaster perspective, imagine being able to divert hurricanes.

• 1:52:04Speaker 00

  Or disperse hurricanes before they form.

• 1:52:06Speaker 02

  Yeah, disperse with precipitation on the water instead of on land, or tornadoes, other extreme weather events, not to mention giving good weather to the places that want it and are willing to trade it. We could have a global weather trade where regions trade each other for precipitation. There are so many possibilities that are unlocked by the confluence of AI, drones, and weather modification. And now, finally, we're about to start this era of geoengineering, I think.

• 1:52:32Speaker 00

  Love it. I can see the business model for Rainmaker. It's like, you know, different cities bid on where the drones go.

• 1:52:40Speaker 02

  Rain arbitrage. We could have a global market for rain. Salim?

• 1:52:47Speaker 03

  Rain becomes programmable. For me, the big breakthrough is not that they made rain, which we've been able to do for a while now, but it's the fact that they could prove how much additional rain they made. That, I think, is really interesting, because it then unlocks a huge amount of stuff. Weather, the challenge is weather typically doesn't respect weather boundaries. So trying to figure out, if you're downstream of somebody that seeded a bunch of clouds and now you're not getting the rain and they're getting it, is going to create some interesting tensions around that. But this is exactly the type of abundance technology, right, allows you to scale something really powerful. And I think there's a wonderful future. The business models around geoengineering, as Alex puts it, are pretty rampant. You

• 1:53:29Speaker 03

  could do some really interesting stuff. I mean, crop management, all sorts of things become capable. It's reminding me of one of the more creative singularity solutions that we ever saw, was at Singularity University, one of the summer students, I think his name was Simon Daniels, had this idea of putting platforms in the ocean that would spray up water wave, take ocean water and spray it up to block the sun from hitting the earth and slowing down global warming that way. And his business model, I said that, was to do it along flight paths where you could spray up water in the shape of a Nike logo and sell that advertising. And so you sell, do it in the shape of certain patterns, that pays for the whole system. At the same time, you'd lower the temperature into a controllable

• 1:54:14Speaker 03

  way. And there's lots of people that say, oh, my God, geoengineering is a bad thing. We don't know the after effects. And the counterpoint is, well, we've already been geoengineering the world for 100 years.

• 1:54:22Speaker 00

  Oh, yes.

• 1:54:22Speaker 03

  In a horrible, uncontrolled, unmeasurable way, and it's causing massive damage. Look at the disaster in Nepal that's happening right now.

• 1:54:29Speaker 00

  12,000 people estimated dead.

• 1:54:30Speaker 03

  It's a complete tragedy there.

• 1:54:31Speaker 00

  My heart goes out to all of them.

• 1:54:32Speaker 03

  And nothing anybody could do in that sense. And you could avoid a lot of that. And so I think it's incumbent upon us to use technology to navigate this stuff, because you do it consciously rather than unconsciously, and that's the powerful point.

• 1:54:46Speaker 00

  Welcome to the health section of Moonshots, brought to you by Fountain Life. You know, my mission is to help you use the latest technologies, including AI, to not just do your work at home, teach your kids, but to help you live a long and healthy life. I'm here today with an extraordinary physician, the chief medical officer of Fountain Life, Dr. Dawn Musalem. Dawn, let's talk about cancer. You know, I know from the member database that we have at Fountain, our members who come in who think they're healthy, it turns out 3.3% of them have a cancer in their body they don't know about.

• 1:55:21Speaker 06

  That's right. You know, the majority of cancers that we screen for, those aren't the ones that are necessarily taking the lives when found at a late stage. We know that when cancer is found early, the chances for cure are much higher. We know it's much easier to treat a cancer when found early versus when found late. What we're finding in our members is over 3.3% were found to have these cancers that were otherwise wouldn't have been found or detected.

• 1:55:45Speaker 00

  Yeah, you know, it's interesting. People, you don't feel the cancer until stage three or stage four. And if you don't know what's going on inside your body, it's like driving your car with your eyes closed. And you can know. And so when members come through Fountain, how do they detect cancers?

• 1:56:00Speaker 06

  So we're doing full-body MRI, and we also do early cancer detection screening. This is very, very important, and these are not typical tools used in the conventional care setting when it comes to prevention. This is a hard thing, because currently, these are not studies that insurance would yet be covering. But the goal is to collect these numbers, do the research, and work hard to democratize wellness.

• 1:56:22Speaker 00

  Yeah. So at the end of the day, you can know what's going on inside your body. It's your obligation to know. So check out Fountain Life, and go to fountainlife.com/peter to get access to the latest technology to help you detect cancer at the very beginning, at stage one, when it is curable, before it gets to stage three or stage four, and you're a world of hurt. All right, let's move into the world of health. A couple of stories here. First off, this week, the FDA approved a drug called, let me pronounce this properly, Diraxinrasib. It's the first RAS inhibitor for metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma, attacking the

• 1:57:02Speaker 00

  RAS family of proteins that drives tumor growth in most patients with the disease. So pancreatic cancer, I mean, is really considered almost a death sentence. It's the most lethal, least treatable cancer for humans in history. In previously treated metastatic cancer, Diraxinrasib nearly doubled median survival from 6.7 to 13.2 months. It also tripled tumor response rates from 11% to 32%. And while this isn't a cure, and, you know, just getting an extra seven months doesn't sound like a lot, that's an additional seven months for science to continue to make more breakthroughs. And that's the way I think about it. This is like longevity escape velocity. Your goal is to live long

• 1:57:45Speaker 00

  enough to get a breakthrough to the another side. It's also worth noting that RAS mutations drive about 30% of all human cancers. So a drug that inhibits these proteins may also be useful for other cancers as well. And, you know, we've heard this said so many times by Dario, by Demis, by many others, you know, the goal is to cure all these diseases, including cancer in this next decade. Alex, do you have a take on this one?

• 1:58:16Speaker 02

  Yeah, so a couple of items. One, I'd point out remarkably, this is a daily oral tablet. Pretty incredible. Secondly, I'd point out, I was doing some research on the full lineage, as it were, for Duroxan Raseb. There's almost no AI involved in the development of this drug. So I think this is actually finger to the wind. I think this is probably slash hopefully one of the last generation of pancreatic cancer medications that almost precedes the AI wave. And I would expect lots of new targets, lots of new approaches to emerge from both

• 1:58:56Speaker 02

  the AlphaFold 3 style of protein folding problem and structural biology being solved, as well as virtual cell models. As far as I can tell, Duroxan Raseb used neither of these in its design. It was like good old fashioned drug design. But I think we're about to see a whole wave of AI-driven drugs that take it from its current response rate to near 100% using AI. And I think that's to be celebrated. I also want to celebrate the FDA in approving this relatively quickly. FDA noted that they approved this, I think, 60, 90 days, something like this, prior to the due date, which for historic FDA speeds

• 1:59:40Speaker 02

  is actually pretty remarkable speed. Yeah. So we're seeing a much more, I think, responsive FDA that now starts to care about Bayesian versus frequentist statistics, that cares about INDs quite a bit more, it seems. That's interested in lowering the number of clinical trials in exemplary cases. Hopefully, this is, I think, a baby step towards a future where AI solves 5,000 diseases, and then we have a regulatory apparatus in the form of an FDA that is able to metabolize all of those innovations and turn them into cures.

• 2:00:16Speaker 00

  Amen. Amen to that. Let me move to our second story in the health corner here. This is published in Nature Communications, and it comes from an international research team out of University of Nottingham, who developed a biomimetic gel capable of repairing and regrowing damaged tooth enamel. So this is fluoride-free treatment, uses lab-engineered proteins that mimic the natural processes of enamel formation during infancy. So as you might know, tooth enamel is the hardest substance in the human body, and it doesn't regenerate. So until now, the only thing you could do was replace enamel with a synthetic filling, would eventually fail. So biomimetic gel is an elastin-like protein matrix designed

• 2:01:00Speaker 00

  to mimic the natural protein scaffolding that organizes enamel during tooth development. The treatment didn't just make something that looks like enamel. It regenerated layers and restored hardness, stiffness, water resistance, friction properties, resistant to brushing, chewing, acid exposure in labs. The gel acts like a scaffolding that pulls calcium and phosphate from the surrounding environment and directs them into properly organizing minerals, rather than merely depositing in amorphous coating. It's true enamel. I mean, for me, this is huge. Related oral disease affects half the population. It's estimated at a half a trillion dollars per year in associated costs. To put this in

• 2:01:42Speaker 00

  perspective, this is still ex vivo. It's still done using extracted human teeth, and it's being done effectively in the test tube of the Petri dish. But it's going to be moving to human testing very quickly. And as someone who's had poor dental health and poor dental genetics all my life, I couldn't be more excited about this, especially for my kids. Saleem, do you want to jump on this?

• 2:02:06Speaker 03

  Just fantastic. For me, the big thing is showing that the future of medicine is not like repairing broken bits. It's convincing the body to rebuild them and finding the mechanisms and pathways, right? And so this is really, really powerful stuff. It'll completely change dentistry.

• 2:02:24Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 2:02:25Speaker 03

  It's completely.

• 2:02:26Speaker 00

  And people undervalue their oral health so much, right? The mouth is a direct corridor to the brain and to the heart. You need to be careful about your oral health. Alex?

• 2:02:36Speaker 03

  Regenerative medicine, there's been a future. We've been waiting for stuff like this to happen for a long time. It's great to see it finally kind of actually come into being.

• 2:02:43Speaker 00

  Alex, did you dig into this story too?

• 2:02:46Speaker 02

  I did. I mean, I think these results actually started bubbling up last year first. I'm incredibly interested in materials engineering of human body, human dental enamel included. But I think this was an AMA question that we got in the last pod episode, people asking, yeah, like, where's all the innovation? Well, I think the story, which again, like, first started seeing this last year, I think this is just one data point in a larger manifold of just applying good old fashioned material science to the problem of human teeth. And

• 2:03:27Speaker 02

  if you can help to shape and engineer the pathways through which tooth enamel grows, I have to think that similar biomaterial discoveries and inventions will also be helpful for bone regrowth, for a variety of other key biomaterials for regenerative medicine. And again, looking at the research behind this, I saw approximately no AI. That's always my sniff test, like, if and how AI was used in this research. And if it wasn't used, as appears to be the case here, there was approximately no AI, as I can see, then take this, but multiply it by many orders of magnitude, the sort of progress I'd expect to see in a few years in this area.

• 2:04:07Speaker 00

  Dave, how's your oral health?

• 2:04:10Speaker 01

  It's fine. But I get really excited about, you know, that Moderna story we had recently, where they had a melanoma vaccine that worked really well, stock went way up. But what was exciting is that it's a platform that applies to virtually any other cancer. And so when Alex says, yeah, these weren't done with AI, I'm like, well, they're really cool, but they're one-offs. I can't wait for the repeatable, like, I can grow a tooth, I can grow an arm, I can grow an ear, I can grow anything now. And so then you get into true scalable regenerative medicine. I feel like that's very, very soon.

• 2:04:43Speaker 00

  By the way, the work on limb regrowth is making amazing progress. Yeah. All right.

• 2:04:50Speaker 02

  I think, Dave, you're also touching on an interesting, almost like a singularity-flavored technological deflation story, which is, if there's no AI in it, like, to first order, what's the point? Either infuse it with AI and make it scalable, so that you can hashtag solve everything, scale it up by 1,000x, or just don't do it and do something else that's higher leverage. Not to discourage people from regenerative medicine.

• 2:05:18Speaker 01

  Sell your data to Dennis, and Dennis will AI what you just invented. That's perfect.

• 2:05:23Speaker 00

  All right. Finally, let's jump into space and robotics stories. So the two first stories are from the Elon universe. Deloitte this week reported about the potential lunar economy. They put a financial figure of 566 billion in cumulative economic value by 2050. I could not expect a lower lowball than that number from Deloitte. The biggest early markets being infrastructure costs, transportation, power, comms, mobility, construction, life support. They cite SpaceX as the biggest winner because of the central role that Starship will play.

• 2:06:03Speaker 00

  Clearly, they are not taking into account, Alex, manufacturing Star Mind on the moon to fuel Earth's Dyson.

• 2:06:11Speaker 02

  Where's the Pedafab? Pedafab is MIA.

• 2:06:13Speaker 00

  Yeah. So just to put the numbers on it, because that number, half a trillion of lunar economy may seem large, but it's a minuscule estimate. So Elon previously stated his plans for Star Mind started with about 100 to 200 gigawatts per year of orbital AI compute, launched from Earth, and then moving to manufacturing AI satellites on the moon for launch with a mass driver. He estimates that we could yield as much as 100 terawatts per year of orbital compute based on lunar production, which would generate, and wait for it, an absurdly large amount of lunar economy. Wait for it. The estimate, if you're building

• 2:06:56Speaker 00

  100 terawatts per year of orbital compute, the economy would be $2 quadrillion per year of gross revenue.

• 2:07:06Speaker 00

  I mean, I like

• 2:07:07Speaker 02

  I don't know, maybe planet's arc is maybe too small.

• 2:07:12Speaker 00

  Two quadrillion dollars. Now, we're now we're talking a good economy.

• 2:07:18Speaker 00

  But, you know, you know, Salim, you deal with like the Deloitte's and McKinsey's and so these guys are so conservative in their numbers all the time. I mean,

• 2:07:27Speaker 03

  Crazy, yeah, because they're A, there are a lot of them are cantons, so they're scared of being called out for anything vaguely approaching a real estimate. B, they they want to make sure their numbers are defensible to the nth degree. So no speculation at all. Whereas by definition, you're speculating, so might as well speculate to some level of honesty. This is the same type of pattern we've seen before. By the way, one of these big four, I won't say which one to protect the innocent here. Put out an AI, put out an agentic AI report saying this is the future of AI agents, etc. So I excitedly read it, thinking I'd get some gloom rings that would give me some sense of it.

• 2:08:10Speaker 03

  Except when I looked deeper into it, the data they were using was two and a half years old. Okay. And how for two and a half year old data, you're going to come up with anything about the agentic world when everything happened in the last six months? It's like, how do you, but they have so many checks and balances and and internal review systems that that dilute everybody's thinking, careful, you can't say that da, da, da, da, da. That by the time it comes out, it's been whitewashed so many times.

• 2:08:37Speaker 03

  Lawyers and and cross reference checkers of even more cautious people. And and then nothing, it's nothing realistic gets put out. In general, I typically say, take any of their estimates and multiply by 10 or 20 times.

• 2:08:51Speaker 00

  Dave, what's your thought?

• 2:08:53Speaker 01

  We had the Deloitte AI team in here in the office the other day. They're very, very good, actually. But they were, yeah, they were also saying the same thing about the accounting side. So Salim, if you're confirmed from inside Deloitte.

• 2:09:06Speaker 01

  Yeah, quadrillions of dollars. That's what Elon was talking about. I believe it because the gravity well is the key. You know, Peter, you talk about this a lot, but everyone's like, why would I bother manufacturing that on the moon? What's the point? You know, I can just make it here. Like, no, no, it's the gravity well. You start building power plants based on just lunar minerals and all of a sudden, you're like, this is so much more efficient. Plus, you know, there's no worry about pollution and stuff like that.

• 2:09:30Speaker 00

  Lunar regolith is silicon. What's that used for? Oh, okay. Power generation, aluminum, nickel, iron and oxygen. I mean, it's like the perfect materials for building Dyson swarms. Alex, I've got to feed it to you to sort of up level this vision here.

• 2:09:48Speaker 02

  Well, the the moon may not be a harsh mistress. She may be a wealthy mistress at this point. I do think the pedo fab is the killer app for the moon. I don't think it's tourism. I don't think it's transporter infra or comms. The Apollo program was sort of infamously arguably a successor to the Manhattan project. And I think to the extent that the the full history of the Apollo program is already fully understood and in the public record. I think a relative failure. I would love to see the moon reach its full economic potential. And I just don't think that is going to happen anyway, other than full private development.

• 2:10:31Speaker 02

  And right now it does appear that the critical path is mining, chips, fabbing data centers on the moon. It's not rods from God. It's not deploying US NASA astronauts to the moon. That's all well and good and everything. And friend of the pod Jared is, I think, doing an amazing job of reinvigorating the case on the government side for vision reactors on the moon and all of that. But I think in the fullness of time, even that just ends up being a rounding error compared to data center deployment and mining on the moon unless, I don't know, unless 2001 a space odyssey happens and we discover some monoliths on the moon, in which case that's the killer app.

• 2:11:13Speaker 01

  The pedo fab or the exo fab on the moon is really interesting to game it out because when you when you look at the fab construction process, you know, a lot of the components in there are just routine aluminum, routine, you know, just construction. There are a few really critical pieces that you can still make on earth and launch them and it'd be just a tiny fraction of the total cost. But, you know, once you start manufacturing chips on the moon, the solar panels on the moon. I mean, it's just exponential takeoff from there. And, you know, the technology is just not that far away.

• 2:11:44Speaker 03

  The problem is that these guys are not looking at what the you can't ask what the lunar economies today. You have to say what industries become unlocked when the cost of moving mass off the earth drops by an order or two of magnitude and that's the imagination gap.

• 2:12:00Speaker 00

  Yeah. And and I just want to say a shout out to Jared Isaacman, who's a friend of the pod and, you know, what an extraordinary administrator. I could not be more proud. I said it during our podcast with him. I've known I think all the administrators pretty well over the last 40, 50 years or 40 years. And he is by far the best, most eloquent, most visionary, most business minded. And he is an accelerationist. And if anybody's going to support humanity, you know, moving beyond the bounds of earth, it's him.

• 2:12:34Speaker 02

  I just said, Peter, like every time the CCP sponsors and influence op to deter American terrestrial data centers, the lunar pedo fab gets its wings.

• 2:12:43Speaker 00

  Yeah. All right. Our second Elon story comes from Tesla. The company announced it's expanded its rollout of cybercabs in Texas. They just registered 79 Model Ys for their robot taxi service. And this is starting to look more, you know, less like an experiment and more like a real fleet. In Las Vegas alone, Tesla recently said it's going to be deploying 2,500 vehicles in the next year. It's Cybercab. Tesla's official long term milestone is to reach a million robot taxis in commercial operations as soon as possible. And if you do the estimates, that's probably about $100 billion of revenue in rideshare revenue for Tesla.

• 2:13:26Speaker 00

  Let's take a look at a quick video here, just to remind people how cool the Cybercab is. I have to say, you know, I love Google, but, you know, Waymo's new vehicle is kind of clunky. This is pretty beautiful.

• 2:13:51Speaker 00

  This is Elon at the original Cybercab rollout. I love those doors.

• 2:13:59Speaker 00

  Yeah. Those are, those are three Commodores or four Commodores.

• 2:14:08Speaker 00

  Pretty cool.

• 2:14:09Speaker 01

  Yeah, such a great design.

• 2:14:11Speaker 00

  It's a beautiful design and in gold is like, it's perfect.

• 2:14:15Speaker 01

  It really is. At the Gigafactory, remember they had that one that was all exploded out so you could see inside all the parts and it's just a beautiful, beautiful design. And it doesn't have that many moving parts, you know, so you can see how they're going to manufacture them at an incredible scale.

• 2:14:29Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 2:14:30Speaker 01

  You know, just just for a consumer, from a consumer point of view, all my friends that are driving the new full self driving Model Ys are like, oh, my God, this is life changing. I literally go anywhere FSD. And the waitlist right now is about three months for a Model Y. But three months from today, the fully engaging, you want to talk to it all the time. AI will be everywhere. So you might want to get on that waitlist because you're going to want to be talking to your AI and continuing your dialogue, your work, your fun.

• 2:15:01Speaker 00

  You know, it's going to be amazing. And, you know, for if there are entrepreneurs out there, when the Cybercab comes out, you know, buy 100 of them. Put them out to work and it'll have a fleet of cybercabs generating revenue for you. I think that's going to be an incredible business.

• 2:15:17Speaker 02

  I will say, I love my Tesla Model Y 2026 Juniper Launch Series Edition. It is life changing. The FSD is incredible. The the manufacturing quality of the car is incredible. I can't wait for cybercabs and robot taxis in general to come to Boston. I'll beat the drum once more for the broken Waymo's theory of if a city can't accommodate robot taxis, then it is not equipped for the singularity and hopefully someone from the city of Boston is listening to this and scratching their head and wondering just what is doing with Boston and why Boston doesn't have proper Waymo support. If if you're scratching your head and you're in a position of authority, call Dave or call me. We'd love to figure this out.

• 2:16:01Speaker 00

  Yeah, the same thing when Uber was made, when Uber was made illegal in France. I was like, okay, if you're an entrepreneur, don't move to France. It's like, these are telltale signs of what cities are on the singularity curve and which are not.

• 2:16:15Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 2:16:16Speaker 00

  Salim?

• 2:16:17Speaker 03

  I'm actually having to sell my beloved 10-year-old Tesla Model S to get a Model Y because I need the FSD. I'll send a photograph of it in for our next project so everybody can see. I totally love my car, but this is a big, big deal, I think, for a couple of reasons. One is, there's three little things here. One is that this changes from purchasing a car to autonomous revenue miles. What's the cost per autonomous revenue per mile, right? And if you can do it at a decent safety-adjusted cost, this is actually massive. The fleet growth will lower wait times, which will improve the user experience, which will increase the

• 2:17:02Speaker 03

  rise, which generates more data, which will create that inner loop that Alex is talking about. So I think there's some really amazing downstream benefits from all of this. It totally changes the insurance and cleaning up and charging and all sorts of, I think you'll turn gas stations into autonomous car cleaning depots. That kind of thing will start to happen. But for me, the bigger one is, I made a bet. I got up on stage 10 years ago and I said, "My kid will never get a driver's license." And I've got just about a year for this Cybercab to roll out to get out there before he may get one anyway, just to get away from the parents, but he wouldn't have to, and then I'll be proven correct. So important not to lose your credibility is a free trust.

• 2:17:45Speaker 00

  Yeah. You know, the abundant story here is the poorest people in the planet will be driven around by electric autonomous vehicles. It will be the cheapest mode of transportation.

• 2:17:56Speaker 03

  And think about the elderly, right? And people that can't get around easily and all, and, and, and, and. It's just the market suddenly becomes so magical, delivering huge capability to segments of the population that can't do it today. Huge.

• 2:18:10Speaker 00

  Yeah, I'm gonna put this image here. I love it, just comparing Cybercab and Waymo. And, you know, I have to say, I don't know how Waymo's gonna compete when Cybercab rolls out. You know, first of all, Cybercab has eight cameras. Again, Elon made the point that if humans can just drive with one or two eyes, you should be able to have a car do it with just cameras. And compared to the Lidars and Radars and 13 cameras that Waymo has, and I think the point with the brains on this image is Cybercab is massively AI-driven. Yeah, I could not agree more.

• 2:18:54Speaker 03

  It's gonna be a big fight. By the way, didn't Tesla acknowledge that cameras aren't enough?

• 2:19:01Speaker 02

  No, I don't think so. Tesla does use for short range, it uses ultrasound, but everyone uses ultrasound. It does not use Lidar. I think there's sort of an interesting, maybe speaking prospectively, not financial advice, epitaph insofar as Luminary, the Lidar provider, declared bankruptcy half a year ago at this point. But if I had to bet, again, not investment advice, I think the market abhors monopolies, and I think there's probably room for at least a handful of, yeah, of competing purchases.

• 2:19:35Speaker 00

  There'll be five or 10 of them. There'll be many of these around, competing, beating themselves up and lowering the price across the board.

• 2:19:41Speaker 01

  And we all win.

• 2:19:42Speaker 00

  Yeah, I introduced Austin Russell, the CEO of Luminary, before it went out of business to Elon at a party. And I watched them duke it out on whether Lidar was important. Anyway, it was a fun show. And Elon was like, "No way. Not interested. Not gonna go there." All right, our final story. It's a little bit of a bizarre one, but expected in the direction in the world of robotics. A company called Somnia Lab has built a robot for intimacy. And the internet has lost its mind. It's called Model L, maybe L for love. It's 5'9" 44-pound robot with 24 degrees of freedom, with the warmth simulation, touch response,

• 2:20:27Speaker 00

  and preference memory design for human-robot sexual encounters. Okay, it's finally here, guys. So real humans wear motion capture suits, I'm gonna show you a video of that in a moment, to record 165 intimate actions that were fed into the model. Somnia Lab is taking $300 deposits for delivery in late 2027. What makes the Model L more interesting than a sophisticated sex doll is the attempt to combine physical embodiment, persistent AI memory, and personalization. Somnia says the robot is intended to remember conversations and preferences across encounters, learn a user's rhythms, can't make this stuff up, and communication style. The body is made

• 2:21:09Speaker 00

  from lightweight carbon fiber with modular skin and structural components designed to be serviced and upgraded. Customers will be able to customize the face, the makeup, the eyes, the skin appearance, and the body silhouette. So I guess this is a story around abundance of intimacy. Let's take a look at this.

• 2:21:29Speaker 02

  This was inevitable, Peter. I'm waiting for you to say "fully functional, programmed in multiple techniques."

• 2:21:34Speaker 00

  No, I'm not gonna go there.

• 2:21:37Speaker 01

  Not yet.

• 2:21:37Speaker 00

  Let's watch this video. This is a video of the motion capture being done to train the AI models here.

• 2:21:51Speaker 00

  With cheesy music to boot.

• 2:21:53Speaker 02

  We've hit a new high here. This is incredible. One has to admire the low degree of freedom. Like, that was a pretty simple face base. I think we were seeing, that was a human in a mocap suit, right?

• 2:22:06Speaker 00

  It was, it was.

• 2:22:08Speaker 01

  That was low quality in every way, from the music to the video.

• 2:22:11Speaker 00

  A robot porn video. Oh my God. You know, you combine this with the conversation we had earlier about AI girlfriends and boyfriends, right? And the human, you know, relationship is cooked.

• 2:22:24Speaker 02

  You think, I mean, I go back and forth, is there going to be an app store for mocapped movements? Or is this just going to be pre-training or post-training data for a foundation model that knows about everything?

• 2:22:34Speaker 00

  I want to see the job ad for that one.

• 2:22:39Speaker 03

  I have a couple of comments on this one.

• 2:22:40Speaker 00

  Please.

• 2:22:41Speaker 03

  So the first thing is, you know, this type of embodied AI has really a pretty difficult data problem, right? Because you can scrape the internet for text. There's no internet-scale dataset of physical human interaction.

• 2:22:54Speaker 02

  What are you talking about?

• 2:22:55Speaker 00

  What are you talking about?

• 2:22:56Speaker 03

  Hold on, hold on, hold on. In terms of the physical movement, etc. So what I love more than anything here is the economic approach, right? You crowdsource, you do crowdfunding of the early thing, get early customers, then use the customer demand, finance the hardware, and generate the interaction data as you scale the product. This is like a pretty classic Exo flywheel. So I thought that was really interesting.

• 2:23:24Speaker 01

  Sounds like you've got a new career out of you.

• 2:23:25Speaker 02

  You got all the [inaudible]. Now, I'll give a hot take on the hot sheets, which is, I don't actually think this is that promising as an approach. There's an abundance of evidence at this point that you can do a great job, either pre-training or post-training, robots for more, call them economically productive, applications just from watching videos without any need for human mocap at all. So if I had to guess, my guess is, this is like a very 2026 story with people mocapping sex maneuvers from, like, manually, but it doesn't scale nearly as well as just pre-training off of internet video, is my guess.

• 2:24:03Speaker 00

  Okay, circle of trust here. How many have you ordered, guys?

• 2:24:10Speaker 00

  I won't tell anybody. Oh my God.

• 2:24:12Speaker 01

  We need guests and panelists that are in their, like, 20s for that.

• 2:24:15Speaker 00

  Oh my God. Dave, any closing thoughts on this topic?

• 2:24:19Speaker 01

  None whatsoever, actually, as it turns out. First time in my life. Nothing to add, sorry.

• 2:24:24Speaker 03

  Speechless.

• 2:24:25Speaker 00

  Oh, my God. All right, everybody. I want to say that's a wrap, but we do have a closing video. If you have outro music videos, please send them to [email protected]. We love sharing them. We love the creativity of our community.

• 2:24:41Speaker 01

  And we'll see you guys in four weeks to the day.

• 2:24:44Speaker 00

  Yes, at Moonshots Live in LA, the evening of September 24th and all day on September 25th. You can go to moonshots.com to apply. It is by application, and it's gonna be an amazing community for you to network with. And spend the day with all five of us. The Moonshots quintet will be there. You get a chance to grill Alex, Saleem, and of course, Dave. It's gonna be, it's gonna be awesome. All right, let's play this video by Ellen Vaman. Thank you, Ellen, for your submission.

• 2:26:17Speaker 00

  Nice heroic music, gentlemen.

• 2:26:21Speaker 02

  It's the Lord of the Rings and Space mashup I never knew I wanted.

• 2:26:27Speaker 00

  That was fun, guys. Really loved it. A lot of fascinating stories, and definitely one bizarre one. Until we see you again twice next week for another episode recording. Be well.

• 2:26:40Speaker 03

  Can't wait. We'll try and sleep in the middle. God help us all.

• 2:26:43Speaker 00

  Live long and perspire, as they say.

• 2:26:44Speaker 01

  Likewise.

• 2:26:46Speaker 03

  Take care, folks.

• 2:27:00Speaker 07

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