The System Is Rigged, the Power Is Shifting—And You’re Being Lied To | The Tom Bilyeu Show

Tom and Co-Host Producer Drew explore a range of topics shaping the current socio-political and technological landscape. With insights from Ray Dalio's tweets and the backdrop of recent policy announcements, the episode delves into the impact of tariffs, globalization, and the intricate dance of international economics. Tom unravels the complexities of U. S.-China trade relations, the nuances of economic policies under Trump, and the controversial rhetoric surrounding these issues. Emphasizing clarity and depth, Tom and Drew dig into the less obvious layers of geopolitical strategy, explaining how currency manipulation and trade barriers play a pivotal role in the global economic stage. They also reflect on the looming AI revolution, China's impressive technological advancements, and the ethical dilemmas posed by rapid innovation. Join them for a deep dive into the dynamics reshaping America and the world today. SHOWNOTES 00:00 Modern Echoes of Marie Antoinette 09:55 Decoding Geopolitical Strategies 11:53 Ray Dalio on Tariffs' Impact 17:07 Currency Warfare and Tariffs 22:05 "Unpredictable Consequences of Economic Warfare" 29:57 Tariffs' Uncertain Global Impact 35:02 Waiting on Election Outcome 39:32 AI's Energy and Global Race 45:34 "AI Inspires Creative Expansion" 47:58 Elon's Political Impact Examined 57:49 Avoid Racial Profiling in Justice 01:01:19 Reevaluating Deportation Ethics 01:06:55 "Future of Intelligence and Energy" 01:13:41 "Goal-Oriented Strategy vs. Emotion" 01:14:45 "Until Next Time, Legends" CHECK OUT OUR SPONSORS Audible: Sign up for a free 30 day trial at https://audible.com/IMPACTTHEORY https://audible.com/IMPACTTHEORY1 Vital Proteins: Get 20% off by going to https://www.vitalproteins.com https://www.vitalproteins.com/ and entering promo code IMPACT at check out Shopify: Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial period at https://shopify.com/impact Thrive Market: ​​Go to https:thrivemarket.com/impact http://thrivemarket.com/impact for 30% off your first order, plus a FREE $60 gift! American Alternative Assets: If you're ready to explore gold as part of your investment strategy, call 1-888-615-8047 or go to https://TomGetsGold.com https://tomgetsgold.com/ Tech Unheard: Tune into Tech Unheard from Arm and NPM—wherever you get your podcasts. ********************************************************************** What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here: If you want my help... STARTING a business:join me here at ZERO TO FOUNDER https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show SCALING a business:see if you qualify here. https://tombilyeu.com/call Get my battle-tested strategies and insights delivered weekly to your inbox:sign up here. https://tombilyeu.com/ ********************************************************************** If you're serious about leveling up your life, I urge you to check out my new podcast,Tom Bilyeu’s Mindset Playbook https://open.spotify.com/show/47VE90Cittmo6TGGFqg2xf —a goldmine of my most impactful episodes on mindset, business, and health. Trust me, your future self will thank you. ********************************************************************** Join me live on myTwitch stream https://impacttheory.co/4fitmnJ. I'm live daily from 6:30 to 8:30 am PT atwww.twitch.tv/tombilyeu https://impacttheory.co/4fitmnJ ********************************************************************** LISTEN TO IMPACT THEORY AD FREE + BONUS EPISODES on APPLE PODCASTS:apple.co/impacttheory http://apple.co/impacttheory ********************************************************************** FOLLOW TOM: Instagram:https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok:https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter:https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices https://megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Tom Bilyeu?

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• 1:07Speaker 01

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• 1:37Tom Bilyeu?

  Trump's Liberation Day has everyone throwing fits. Lutnick and Vance have to do damage control. China lengthens its lead on energy with another mega dam as the world grapples with AI's insane power demands. A remote human-bot tag team surgery inches us closer to a sci-fi reality. Fleets of flying cars launch in China that would make the Jetsons proud. Tesla continues its nosedive, though, as they post yet more horrific sales figures. Jack Dorsey explains how he thinks Bitcoin could die. Eighty-dollar video games hit the market. Drew, between the potential of global stagflation and a dam that can literally slow the rotation of the earth. Today's quite the ride.

• 2:20Speaker 02

  It literally added time to the year. That was like nuts to me. I was like, how did you rebuild something that changed the curvature of the earth?

• 2:26Tom Bilyeu?

  Like, what? Much bigger. So, yeah, China already has a dam that has slowed the rotation of the earth and they're building one that's a lot bigger. It's crazy.

• 2:34Speaker 02

  It is nuts. Um, well, if the cat's out of the bag, it is liberation day. Um, some people are calling it-

• 2:40Tom Bilyeu?

  Days into liberation day now.

• 2:42Speaker 02

  Some people are calling it liquid day after all the stock market reactions to it. So people are upset. Um, Trump releases plan for reciprocal tariffs based off of trade deficit that had both trade barriers as well as other countries' trade tariffs. Um, so we had those chart in our last episode, so now it's just been blowback. So I've seen blowback with both Republicans breaking with Democrats and saying this is a little bit too far. I have heard Republicans ringing the bell that this is going to bring manufacturing back. Let's just level set and kind of say, what? What do you think is happening? Give us kind of a, a, a refresh of what actually happened today and what do we think is going to happen in the short term?

• 3:22Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah. So I think the really important part here is that people not jump on a team. The reality is we don't know what's going to happen. And Ray Dalio had a, a really great tweet thread that we'll go through after we do the Vance Letnick thing. Let's do that first. But um, he had a really thoughtful tweet thread that was like, here are how tariffs work. And so we don't know what the second and third order consequences are going to be, but we're, we've got a high degree of certainty about what the first order consequences will be. And so getting everybody to not play political ball and instead say, this is where we're trying to end up. So Trump has been very clear on where he wants to end up. Whether he gets there is a different question, but he wants to end up where we are not beholden to China for our manufacturing and where we reinvigorate our own manufacturing base here in the US

• 4:07Tom Bilyeu?

  so that we can take care of the working and middle class. So his whole hypothesis is that globalization was terrible for America. It, it did drive down the cost of goods, but also at the same time, not saying it's causative, but at the same time, America has started growing at a much slower rate. So, um, I forget who said this, but I think it's really brilliant. The, the- Current model of globalism for America is let them eat flatscreens. And so for people that know the let them eat cake thing, you can get into this delusional bubble where you don't realize what's going on beyond that myopic thing that you're looking at. And sure, if you're wealthy, the great irony is Marie Antoinette never said let them eat cake, but let's not get hung up on details like that, Drew.

• 4:51Tom Bilyeu?

  That's nonetheless become the famous way to capture the ethos of that moment that led to the French Revolution. So we have something similar going on right now, which is, hey, but we've delivered you all of these cheap goods. And so please don't look at the fact that we're now in a Cold War with a peer competitor in the form of China. Please don't look at the fact that they control the vast majority of your manufacturing, which you saw the realities of during COVID. And please don't look at the fact that if you went into a kinetic war with China, that they could turn you off from a manufacturing perspective in the same way that Israel has turned off Gaza. So you don't want to be in that position. And I didn't see anybody loving it when Israel could do it to Gaza, and we really shouldn't love it when it can be done to us.

• 5:35Tom Bilyeu?

  So from where I'm sitting, again, I don't know if Trump's policies are going to work. All I know is, as Ray Dalio points out in his tweet, you can't keep doing what you're doing now. So you absolutely must protect yourself from a wild trade imbalance because this is how you get into the absurd deficits that we get into. That's complex. We'll talk more about it. That's one. Two, you cannot have somebody that you're in a Cold War with and could, I hope not, but could find yourself in a kinetic war with. You can't let them control your manufacturing, especially not manufacturing of the very weapons that you would need to defend yourself, which are drones, which is exactly the position that we're in right now. China controls basically that entire supply chain.

• 6:21Tom Bilyeu?

  So the position that we're in right now is fiscally untenable, and it's untenable from the working and middle class, and it's untenable from a national security standpoint. So you must act. And that is the very reason that Trump was elected, from where I'm sitting.

• 6:38Tom Bilyeu?

  Now the debate becomes, is what he's proposing actually going to work? And for that, I want to look at both sides. But again, you're going to have to start with what are we trying to achieve? So if you hate his policies, do you agree on what we're trying to achieve? But just think he's not going to get there? Or do you have a totally different thing? Let's peg that. But I think a lot of this is emotional reaction, not cause and effect chain reaction. So let's see.

• 7:03Speaker 02

  Copy that. JD Vance and Howard Lucknick were playing cleanup, going to look with news outlets, explaining what this actually means for local Americans.

• 7:12Speaker 03

  I'd elected on is to bring the cost down for people, but also bring manufacturing back to the country.

• 7:19Speaker 04

  That's right.

• 7:20Speaker 03

  These are gonna kind of hit each other, right? Explain to us how you get manufacturing here, but also get the cost down for the American people.

• 7:29Speaker 04

  Well, if you go back a little bit, Lawrence, remember during the first Trump administration, everybody said that Trump's tariffs were going to be inflationary back then. What actually happened? We had 1.5% inflation. We had the fastest growing economy in a generation, and we had the beginning of a manufacturing renaissance in the United States of America. Then, of course, we had four terrible years of the Biden administration. But I think it's useful for all of us to step back and ask us, ask ourselves, what has the globalist economy gotten, the United States of America? And the answer is fundamentally, it's based on two principles. Incurring a huge amount of debt to buy things that other countries make for us. And to make it a little bit more crystal clear, we borrow money from Chinese peasants to buy the things those Chinese peasants manufacture.

• 8:13Tom Bilyeu?

  Bro, that statement is so inflammatory to me. When I heard that, I was like, wait, why? Why do we have to go out of our way to say that? So anyway, I'm not sure what he's trying to do with that. Peasant has connotations, horrific, ugly, disparaging connotations.

• 8:29Tom Bilyeu?

  That shit is so inflammatory. That, that to me was the whoa moment of this whole thing. Like you're already in a spot where people are, people on both sides of the aisle. So this is after you've got a vote in the House where Republicans were voting against this very thing, saying that the president cannot do things that are taxes. That goes through Congress, full stop. And they're saying tariffs, this is in reference to Canada, if I'm getting all my facts straight, saying that you can't do tariffs because that's effectively a tax and that's the purview of Congress. So anyway, this is all being battled out.

• 9:08Tom Bilyeu?

  And now you've got this weirdly inflammatory rhetoric coming from the Vice President, while in my opinion, they should be doing damage control. That feels like, and I haven't seen yet, so maybe nobody like got their feathers ruffled, but that one hit me real weird. That was a sour note for me.

• 9:29Speaker 02

  I feel like J D Vance likes to pop off. This is giving me Zelensky vibes, like you should say thank you. And now he's calling Chinese peasants when Chinese is our biggest trade adversary. I'm not even gonna say partner, like where that's the deficit that we're most want to slash. And calling them peasants, I feel like is a great start of a negotiation, but.

• 9:49Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah. Oh, man.

• 9:50Speaker 02

  I didn't read the article.

• 9:50Tom Bilyeu?

  All right, I, I won't, I won't derail us on that. I'll, we'll stay on tariffs, but that one is a real sour note for me.

• 9:56Speaker 02

  Yeah. And then on the other side, Howard Lutnick was on Bloomberg and I feel like he had a more business oriented take.

• 10:03Speaker 05

  Along with that, there, there, there sometimes are some unintended consequences. And if it's the biggest reset of the economy, US and global economy since World War II, you know, in the world order in terms of currency, is that's, is there a Trump put there? Maybe there's not a Trump put on the stock market, but what about on a, a collapsing dollar?

• 10:27Speaker 05

  It, it, it just can't happen.

• 10:29Speaker 06

  I mean, if you think about it, the United States is a twenty nine trillion dollar economy, and we are the consumer of twenty trillion dollars of goods. And other countries are producers of goods, and we are the buyer of goods. So if you want to build your product, you're going to have to build it in America if you want to avoid these tariffs. Or these countries have to fundamentally alter the way they do their business. Those two things going together are going to result in interest rates in the United States of America being much, much lower. High-quality production jobs much, much higher. Domestic production of huge amounts of factories, that's GDP, right?

• 11:14Speaker 06

  Remember, when Donald Trump says we've got five trillion dollars of factories coming to America, think of five trillion divided by his four years. That is huge GDP growth on factory building, which all of you are not yet thinking about. These factory commitments are going to create huge growth in America.

• 11:33Tom Bilyeu?

  Before we move on to this next question, which is equally brilliant. These two questions to me are the right two questions. So let me try to plain English the first question. And please speak on behalf of the audience if there's anything that you think is unclear, like this is the time to push back. Because if people can understand the geopolitical game that actually exists, because we're talking at this surface level of tariffs and all that. But I think there's a more important game to be played, which is understanding if you go to the chart that Trump showed in the Rose Garden. They do a bad job of showing it, but nonetheless, he's holding it up. You can find it online. In fact, if you can't pull it up, please do.

• 12:13Tom Bilyeu?

  And it shows the tariffs that we're going to be placing on people. And I think people are very right to look at the math, to scrutinize it, to ask whether this is the right mathematical equation. Because they're billing it as here are the tariffs that the other countries have on us, and we're just doing roughly half of it with a minimum of ten percent. So some people, even though they have According to them, 10% on us, we are then just applying 10% on them. For the most part, it's roughly the midpoint. What he's calling friendly, I think, friendly reciprocal tariffs or kind reciprocal tariffs, something like that. But the first question anybody should ask is, wait a second, what is that math based on?

• 12:58Tom Bilyeu?

  And so it's something they're calling trade barriers. Now, they do have a math equation. It is, I won't even pretend to understand the actual mu sigma minus divided by like all that stuff. There's literally not a number in it. It's all symbols. And this is not, the mathematics side of it is not where I'm going to be able to shine. But you can go find the debates on the actual math. But I think it is very right to ask that question. But what I want to talk about is just understanding that there is something called trade barriers. Okay, the most important one that people should be zooming in on is the manipulation of currency. So we'll go through Ray Dalio's tweet, but one of the things that he talks about in the tweet is you have to understand the way that currencies are manipulated and the way that tariffs interact.

• 13:41Tom Bilyeu?

  So you put a tariff on a country and it ends up being deflationary for the country that's having the tariffs put on them. So just take US-China. We're tariffing the life out of China. We have historical tariffs already and now we're layering like the fentanyl tariff plus more tariffs. So it's like, we're really tariffing China. Okay, so what ends up happening in China? For China, you get this deflationary pressure on the goods because they made all this stuff and they planned to sell it to the US. And now we're saying, nope, you're not going to be able to sell it in the US at the price you thought you were going to be able to sell it. Which means now it's like, oh, the demand for the things.

• 14:21Tom Bilyeu?

  I China made these things, having a predictable amount of demand based on the previous year's sales that were based on a known price. When you force me to change my price through this tariff, AKA tax, now I'm in a position where the demand just got lower, but I've got the goods. So now I'm going to flood my own market with these goods because I don't have that external market to send them to.

• 14:47Speaker 02

  I can't dump it in the US, I have to keep it in China.

• 14:50Tom Bilyeu?

  Exactly. And so now the Chinese are like, well, there's so much of this, it's not as valuable.

• 14:54Speaker 02

  And now I'm not paying as much as I'm used to paying because there's three of them now as opposed to one of them.

• 14:58Tom Bilyeu?

  Exactly. And so now it's, this is cheaper for us. Here's where deflation gets weird because non-crisis created deflation is good. You want your computer to get more powerful and to stay at the same price. That's deflation. So because the final price is the same, you don't think about the fact that you're getting more and more and more for your dollar, which means you can buy an older version for less and less and less.

• 15:23Speaker 02

  You used to buy $200 for a 20-inch TV, now that $200 gets you a 50-inch TV.

• 15:27Tom Bilyeu?

  Correct. And that you could go buy the 40-inch TV for like pennies.

• 15:31Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 15:31Tom Bilyeu?

  So now you're making a product available for much, much cheaper, or you can get the same price for way, way more. Okay, so when it's not crisis-led, deflation is awesome. Quick break, but don't go anywhere. There's more to come after this short break from our sponsors. Luxury brands are not charging you more for better cashmere. You're paying for the storefront, the ad budget, the name on the tag, but Quince cuts all of that out. They work directly with ethical factories. They skip the middlemen and sell 100% Mongolian cashmere, starting at just 60 bucks. 50 to 80% less than similar brands. Now, I gave one of these as a gift last year.

• 16:13Tom Bilyeu?

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• 16:58Tom Bilyeu?

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• 17:42Tom Bilyeu?

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• 17:59Tom Bilyeu?

  All right, we're back. Let's get into it.

• 18:02Tom Bilyeu?

  You want your stuff to get cheaper. You want to get more bang for your buck. When it's a crisis led deflation, now you've got a problem because companies start going, oh,

• 18:13Tom Bilyeu?

  I don't have a new thing to sell you at the same price, but you get more for it. I have the old thing now that I have to sell at a lesser price. And I'm gonna have to let some people go. So you start layoffs, you start firing people, you start shrinking down. And the government looks at that and goes, okay, we don't want to be in that position. So we need to do something that is going to protect us from losing those jobs. I'm oversimplifying, but that'll give you an anchor to hold on to. So we don't want people to lose their jobs. In comes central banks. And when I say central banks, you should hear wolves howling in the background. The reason that you should hear it isn't even necessarily that they're born to be evil.

• 18:57Tom Bilyeu?

  It is that they cannot help, but have second and third order consequences that I think, that not everybody's going to agree with this, that I and many others think are manipulations of the market that create things like 2008. And you get these huge bubbles because the Fed, as it's known here in America, or the central bank in China, they're trying to protect you from things. So in this case, they're trying to protect you from the deflationary effects of tariffs. And so the way that they do that is they say, okay, we've got to find a way to increase demand inside of our own country and outside of our country.

• 19:38Tom Bilyeu?

  And we're going to do that by lowering the value of our currency. So now all of a sudden, somebody in the US goes, oh, you're tariffing it at whatever, 100%, but you just cut it in half, the cost. So effectively, for me, this is the exact same price. And so this is the war that's going on behind the scenes. And so there is a ton of beef between the US and specifically China. There's probably more countries that are doing this, where the US is saying, hey, part of these trade barriers, the reason that you're saying, we don't tariff you, what do you mean? And Lutnik is saying, that's bullshit. You may not call it a tariff. It has the exact same economic impact as a tariff.

• 20:21Tom Bilyeu?

  And so what you're doing is you are making my goods more expensive in your country as a fuck you to me. So you're saying, oh, you're going to tariff us? Well, I'm not going to tariff you back, but I am going to lower the value of my currency by printing money. They're going to give it a fancy name, like quantitative easing. It's counterfeiting. It's printing money. People have heard me talk about that many, many times. So that government is going to print money so that their currency is worth less, so that the dollar compared to the RMB, the dollar is stronger. And now, when I'm selling that product in, even though it has increased tariff, it has, the, the cost of it is decreased compared to a dollar. And so they can begin to balance it out.

• 21:04Tom Bilyeu?

  So you tried to do this thing, you tried to strong arm China, but they then have this other lever that they can pull, which is to make their currency worth less. And so you get into all this currency warfare back and forth. And there's a longstanding belief on the part of the US that China has artificially deflated their currency so that they could flood our market with cheap goods from China, even though they've become a more and more sophisticated manufacturer, which we talked about in a previous episode where Tim Cook comes on and is like, "I don't know what made you think that the labor is cheap. The labor isn't cheap, but if you drive the cost or if you drive the value of the currency down, the cost of those highly skilled goods is still cheap once it lands on your shore."

• 21:49Tom Bilyeu?

  If you're China and you can do all this top-down shit and be like, "Fuck you, I don't care, dear Chinese, that we're inflating the life out of your currency", which is, by Tom Bilyeu's metric, evil. It is amoral because it robs power, purchasing power, from all of the people, all of the Chinese people or anybody else that holds RMB. So I think that that is legitimately immoral.

• 22:08Speaker 02

  And it's one party, one mind, one direction.

• 22:10Tom Bilyeu?

  Yep. Hey, listen, we have a Fed and the Fed does the same shit. So I'm not by any means letting us off the hook. I'm just trying to set the table for people. The argument is going to happen at the level of tariff, tariff, tariff, tariff, tariff. What Lutnik is trying to get across is, boys and girls, this battle is far more sophisticated than that. And I wish fucking Vance would stop saying shit like Chinese peasants trying to be a dick about it. But there really is a thing going on where China's like, "Oh, baby, we will inflate the shit out of our currency to keep these goods cheap." And then good luck explaining to the American people what's happening. Because we're gonna go to war, as they have been very clear.

• 22:55Tom Bilyeu?

  We'll fight any kind of war that you want to have and we will fight it till the end. Let us not forget that tweet. So when they put up the tariffs, quote-unquote tariffs, it isn't that simple. There is a far deeper war going on.

• 23:13Speaker 02

  Yes, I think we got it. I think the currency manipulation, if I can say it back to you just to make sure I interpreted it right, was that, let's say this mug is a dollar.

• 23:22Tom Bilyeu?

  Yep.

• 23:23Speaker 02

  And now I say, "I'm gonna put a tariff on this. So now if you try to sell it to the American people, it's gonna cost you $2."

• 23:28Tom Bilyeu?

  Yep.

• 23:29Speaker 02

  China's gonna say, oh, you're trying to put a tariff on it to make it more expensive. So instead, I'm going to turn my dollar, I forgot what they did, yuan.

• 23:38Tom Bilyeu?

  Let's, uh, RMB yuan, yep. Let's, let's, uh, use real numbers so that we can track this. So, uh, let's say China says, I sell this to you. And unfortunately, I don't know the conversion rate on RMB, so I could be so far off on this. But let's say this mug is a hundred RMB. And we set that price because that's gonna be a dollar in the US, whatever. And you put a tariff on it and now it's going to cost $2 in the US. If I can make a hundred RMB now worth half the amount that it was before, because you doubled the price. Now it comes across, even though it's now, uh, went from a hundred to 200 RMB.

• 24:22Tom Bilyeu?

  If I can make 200 RMB worth $1, we're back to this only cost a dollar.

• 24:28Speaker 02

  So they just inflate, they inflate the currency so much that it's still, the buying power is the same?

• 24:35Tom Bilyeu?

  Or roughly the same. They probably won't get to exact parity, but they get to the place where you're like, nah, it's a little bit more expensive, but it's not a big deal. And so you get some of those purchases back. You won't get them all back, probably, but you can certainly mitigate, uh, the impact.

• 24:51Speaker 02

  Got you. Okay. So then with that said, you, you're saying to sum up Howard Luckner's point now was like, this is not just about tariff on imports and goods. There's other things that are going into the boat and that's why we had to do this?

• 25:04Tom Bilyeu?

  I would like people to be way more paranoid than that.

• 25:07Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 25:07Tom Bilyeu?

  Howard Luckner is going to point out the reality that there is a far more complicated game being played. It is important for people to understand that, one, there's a far more complicated game being played. And two, Howard Luckner is likely to spin and position to make his team look right.

• 25:24Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 25:24Tom Bilyeu?

  So that you'll back him as we push forward on this. But I would like to remind everybody. Doesn't matter what Howard Letnick says, or Trump says, or anybody says, left or right, it's all spin. And they may have the best of intentions, but nobody can predict the future. This game is so complicated. This is probably the time to pull up the Ray Dalio tweet, because he does such a phenomenal job of walking through the basics. And each level of the tweet, we see how, oh, first order consequences is pretty easy to predict. Second order consequences get a little weirder. Third order consequences are like, oh, my God, I have no idea what the chain reaction's gonna be, because this all comes down to how do people react?

• 26:08Tom Bilyeu?

  Because does China inflate their currency to drive the value down? Or do they do retaliatory strikes on us? And they're like, fuck you, we'll deal with pain, but now you're gonna deal with more pain. All that stuff, all your pharmaceuticals, all of your drones, we're just gonna blow the prices up, because you think you can hurt us, but we think we can hurt you even more. And so, the war will get messy. The reason I brought all of this up is, so much of this debate really needs to be had at the level of, how, what is the math that we're using to say, this is the right amount of tariffs to apply? They've posted it, so people that understand that level of math can get in there and do

• 26:52Tom Bilyeu?

  it. I'm gonna take it at the level of, like, plain English of, okay, this is how we're running it. And it's the simplest way to sum it up is, this isn't straight tariffs, this is trade deficit, plus the hurdles that they put in place. Like, that's basically what they're trying to get to, is there are hurdles that are unseen, like the things that we just walked through, that's what we're accounting for, that's where this number comes in. But be paranoid, that- They're doing this to be aggressive. And that's where I come down to, do you agree with what they're trying to achieve? Because if you agree with what they're trying to achieve, then we can debate whether this is the right thing to do or not.

• 27:34Tom Bilyeu?

  Because to get manufacturing back on our shores, you're going to have to put a shock to the system.

• 27:40Speaker 02

  Yeah. And just for the record, Russia, North Korea, and Cuba weren't on that list, not because they have zero trades, but because they have economic sanctions, the US is not allowed to do business with those countries.

• 27:50Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, so there's no point. All right, pull up the, all right, here's the Ray Dalio thing. Uh, the effects of how, the effects of tariffs, how the machine works. All right, I'm gonna really um try to do this quickly. The first ones are probably gonna have to read verbatim. So one, tariffs are taxes that, one, raise revenue for the country, imposing them that both the foreign producers and the domestic consumers, how much paid by each depends on their relative elasticities, uh, which make them an attractive tax. Okay, what does that mean? It means that the reason that people lean on tariffs is it's a tariff that you share, or a tax, excuse me, that you share between uh the buyer and the seller. So now neither side is having to carry the full weight.

• 28:32Tom Bilyeu?

  Uh, two, tariffs are taxes that reduce the global efficiencies of production. So this is deglobalization, just to be very clear about what Trump is trying to do. Uh, tariffs are taxes that, three, are stagflationary for the world as a whole. We talked about this, exactly how that works. Uh, tariff, tariffs are taxes that, four, make companies in the importing tariffing countries, so in this case, America, more protected from foreign competition in the domestic market. Let's just say China, which make them less efficient, less globalist, but more capable of surviving if aggregate domestic demand is maintained through monetary and fiscal policy.

• 29:15Tom Bilyeu?

  Meaning, we want to bring manufacturing back. We want to make these things here in the US. Now you're able to pay your workers instead of Chinese workers, so you're creating jobs. Um, and you've got the manufacturing capabilities. Like, when Tim Cook came On and said China is not skilled labor. Uh, sorry, China is not cheap labor. They're skilled labor. And the chattering class was like laughing, ah, Trump's such an idiot. Like, look, these guys are skilled and you just think they're cheap. I was like, uh, motherfuckers. He just screamed at you. You've made Americans incapable of doing these things because globalist policies sent all that overseas. And they were fucking smart about it. And they said, yeah, we're gonna get really good at this.

• 29:57Tom Bilyeu?

  And we're going to bring efficiencies and technical know-how to be able to produce better and make things cheaper. All of that stuff. Plus, using currency manipulation in order to feed that machine. So that they're capable of the most extraordinary manufacturing feats. Like building a dam that can slow the rotation of the earth, Drew. So, um, this is the kind of thing you have to be aware of, that by onshoring manufacturing. The long-term consequence is you get really good at manufacturing. So this isn't a ha, ha, ha, Trump doesn't know what he's doing. It's Jesus, man. Don't you want us to be good? Yes, it's gonna take time, but holy hell, the journey of a thousand miles begins with a step. Like, you've got to first get things back.

• 30:42Tom Bilyeu?

  Uh, okay, uh, next tariffs are a tax that uh, five are necessary in times of international great power conflict. To assure domestic capabilities for production. This is exactly what we were just talking about. Boys and girls, we are in a cold war with China. This is the great power conflict to which he is referring. All right, tariffs are a tax that six can reduce both current account and capital account imbalances, which in plain English means reducing the dependencies on foreign production and foreign capital. Which is especially valued in times of global geopolitical conflicts wars. Now, yes, look at this from the American side, but if you also want to know why China is selling off their American debt. That's why they don't want to be holding US.

• 31:27Tom Bilyeu?

  Dollars like that. That's no bueno at this moment for them. Okay, so Ray says those are the first order consequences. All right, I won't drag us through everything else, but there is more. If you want to just scroll down for anybody that wants to pause it and look at the different things. So he starts going on to the ways that this begins to fractal in complexity.

• 31:48Speaker 02

  Currency rates that we talked about, yeah. Monetary policy, that's the Fed.

• 31:51Tom Bilyeu?

  I've tried to simplify all this in the examples that I've been giving. So you don't necessarily have to go point by point, but they're there on the screen. If you want to pause and look at them. So this is the game that's being played again. Please, guys, if you can hear my voice right now, don't team up. Don't, uh, left, good, right, bad, right, good, left, bad. Don't play that game. What's the goal? What do you believe the goal should be? And then what is the chain of cause and effect that you think leads to that? And then map back to what they're doing and say, oh, there it's step three is where they're making a mistake because I don't think that that's going to lead to this. Now, Ray Dalio's punchline, and as a reminder of who Ray Dalio is,

• 32:33Tom Bilyeu?

  there are three, there's more, but three of the greatest capital allocators of our time are Howard Lutnick, the Secretary of Commerce for the Trump administration, Scott Besant, the Secretary of Treasury, and Ray Dalio, the guy commenting on this. I'm pretty sure Ray has, he's built the largest hedge fund in the world, at least at one point. So at one point, he was the single most successful person in the world at looking at the global macroeconomic setup and saying, I'm so convinced that I'm right, that I'm going to bet billions of dollars. And he's made more money doing that than anybody.

• 33:16Tom Bilyeu?

  And a close, I don't know that they're second and third, but Scott Besant and Lutnick are real fucking high. So these are people that know how to look at the way that trade actually works and say, I understand this better than everybody else, because these gambles in the stock market are competitive. One person wins, somebody else loses. And so they've Just beat everybody. So those are at least for this conversation, the three people we're talking about. So the policies being put forward, when you hear Trump talk about them, they sound manic. When I hear Scott Besson, Lutnik, Dalio, look at them, I feel like I have a much

• 33:55Tom Bilyeu?

  firmer understanding of what they're attempting to do. Now, Ray's punchline to actually say it out loud is that you gotta watch. It's unclear what's gonna happen because I don't know how China's gonna respond. China's only one of the many countries that are now having tariffs placed on them. So all you can do is say, as he listed out, the the goal that they are trying to achieve is one of the potential downstream effects of tariffs. It is not guaranteed, but it is certainly like that follows naturally from these things in a world in which the second and third order consequences fall into a certain path. And so that's what we have to wait and see what happens with the second and third order consequences.

• 34:34Speaker 02

  I want to get this follow up question because we're hearing this a lot is about, you say it a lot that this is like a game of chicken that Trump and a lot of these investors.

• 34:41Tom Bilyeu?

  Shout out, was this MSNBC?

• 34:43Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 34:43Tom Bilyeu?

  CNBC. So these guys had the best one to punch that I saw.

• 34:47Speaker 04

  And and one of the things that I was speaking to a whole number of CEOs yesterday who need to actually make some decisions. And the question is, how soon do they make those decisions? And they talk about what they think of as this game of chicken, a almost political game, which is to say they don't know whether these tariffs which are being announced today are going to be the same in a month, two months, six months, and more importantly, in four or five years, when in fact, the factories that they would have to invest in today would be up and running. What do you say to that CEO who says, you know what? I'm actually gonna take a, I'll take a flyer and I'll wait a year or two, see how this all plays out before I do anything, which also means that we're going to have a real freeze in terms of investment.

• 35:33Speaker 03

  I think you're going to see, and we've been feeling it every day, that you're going to build in America, that this is a reordering of global trade, and it's really thoughtful. If you understood how rough these other countries are on American products, rough, and and their tariffs are just like the tip of the iceberg, the classic, the rest of the ice. Below the water is so rough and so difficult. And they have subsidies and they have trade barriers. And you can't sell because if you if you lean one inch to the right or one inch to the left. Oh, you're not allowed to sell. I mean, I tell the story. We made a deal in 2012 to take Korean cars.

• 36:16Speaker 03

  In exchange, they were going to take our produce and agriculture. And when McDonald's tried to bring in french fries. They actually said, we can't bring in the french fry. The American company can't bring in the french fries because we couldn't prove the origin of the potato. I am telling you, the rules of the world are so stacked against us. That we are just the consumer of the world and it's going to end. And once that ends and once America wakes up to it. And now all of America is going to wake up to it. That everybody is going to build their factories here. Everybody's going to move their factories here. And America is going to become the producer of much, much more of what we consume.

• 36:58Speaker 03

  It will become a balance. Interest rates will be much, much lower. The United States of America will be much, much stronger. We are growing much too much like the rest of the world. Our growth rate should be double or triple them. Because we are the greatest economy and we are feeding the world. And Donald Trump would like to have America first. How about we feed America first?

• 37:22Tom Bilyeu?

  He has to say this. So unfortunately, Alexander Hamilton called it. When he put his finger on the fact that the position that he basically created. The Secretary of the Treasury, which again is our boy Scott Besant.

• 37:39Tom Bilyeu?

  Hamilton realized, oh, this is going to be a PR game. And whatever the Secretary of the Treasury says is going to echo. Because this is a game of confidence. And I know people hate it when I say that the stock market is gambling. This is all gambling. This is all, uh, what do people think? What's the sentiment? Yeah. People will try to anchor you on, no, no, no, it's all about profits. It's really not. I'm not saying that's not a major influence. It certainly is. But you can have an unprofitable company. That's unprofitable for years. Netflix, I'm looking at you. And people value it to the moon. Because they think one day it'll be profitable. Anyway, this is a game of confidence. He's got to say this.

• 38:21Tom Bilyeu?

  The reality is, if you look inside of his heart, he doesn't know what's going to happen. But you can't be paralyzed by fear. You can't stand still. We're in an untenable situation. Something has to be done. Now, I love fiery debate about whether this is the something or not. And I think that that guy, unfortunately, I don't know his name. But the guy asking that question, this is, for me, like, one of the biggest questions. As a CEO, I'm like, uh, I don't know that the Republicans are gonna stay in power. I'm not even sure they're gonna make it past midterms. So, given all that, I'm like, yeah, I'm gonna wait and see what happens before I make any bold moves. There's no way that some percentage of these people, maybe it's 1%, maybe it's 99%.

• 39:05Tom Bilyeu?

  Some percentage of these people that are like, oh, we're gonna make all these big investments, Trump, yeah, yeah, yeah. Like, it is gonna be very easy for them to slow roll this and go, how's he doing? How are those polls? Because they only have to buy, like, what, 15 months from now? So 15 months from now, they're gonna get a check on whether he's gonna be a lame duck or he's gonna move forward. And so you're just like, yeah, we're planning, we're gonna move forward, look at these, you know, you spend a couple million bucks to, like, show the plans to keep Trump sweet, and he's like, look, this is all happening. And in reality, there would almost be a dereliction of duty if they didn't wait to see, like, is this forever? So, because I'll say this, for all the people that are like, it'll take five or six years to build these factories.

• 39:50Tom Bilyeu?

  Probably, but it doesn't have to. Elon Musk built a giga factory, one of the biggest factories in America, maybe the world, in 18 months. So, I don't wanna hear some bullshit about it takes five years. It doesn't take five years barring absolute ridiculous regulation and a lack of will. But the smart money probably slow rolls this one.

• 40:14Speaker 02

  Yeah, if you wanna stall, it could take five or six years. Like, ah, yeah, paperwork, you know how that is. Well, see you next midterms, see what happens.

• 40:22Tom Bilyeu?

  Quick break, but don't go anywhere. There's more to come after this short break from our sponsors.

• 40:28Speaker 01

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• 40:59Tom Bilyeu?

  All right, we're back. Let's get into it.

• 41:01Speaker 02

  Man, I want to stay with China because there are some crazy things coming out of China. The first thing, we kept talking about it, that they built a dam so big that it slowed the spin of the earth. And they are trying to build another one, three times as big. And it cost $137 billion. This is a tweet from Mike Benz where he outlined it.

• 41:21Tom Bilyeu?

  I can't believe it's that cheap, though, to be honest. Like, the, the size of the one, the Three Gorges Dam, that they've already built is so, like, megalithic. And to think that the one that they're going to build, which is dramatically bigger, is only 137 billion? Like, that's crazy. I mean, I'm not saying that's not cheap, but I'm saying Elon could build it by himself. He'd have to sell all the shares, let me not backtrack on my own thing, that that isn't real money, but, uh, that's crazy.

• 41:47Speaker 02

  You got it. But with the combination of the three dams that they're proposing, they would be able to power a company like Germany with just those.

• 41:55Tom Bilyeu?

  Country.

• 41:56Speaker 02

  Like, just those three dams. It's, it's nuts.

• 42:00Speaker 02

  We know that this is, energy dominance is important, and everybody's celebrating energy's cost being cheaper and cheaper. Ground is, why is energy so important? What are they using the energy for? Why do you need to slow the spin of the earth to dominate this much energy? What do you think is the end goal of China for being, for striving for energy dominance?

• 42:18Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay, so, one, um, do they care about energy dominance? They want to win, for sure, but this is really just about, I want AI dominance, or at a minimum, I want AI parity. And Elon, in fact, I think the original. Original tweet that I put, bring that back up because Elon does a breakdown. So Elon says, as I said a few years ago, the AI scaling constraint will move from chips to voltage transformers to electricity generation. So this is why China cares deeply about energy. And I mean, honestly, there are a thousand reasons to care about energy. And to sum it up very quickly, everything that you see, everything that you're touching right now is a result of energy and labor.

• 43:01Tom Bilyeu?

  And AI is, I'm going to call it a robot, even though I get the difference between AI and robotics, but this will be easier for people to digest. AI is a robot that eats sunshine. And if it can, if it has to eat like,

• 43:19Tom Bilyeu?

  think of like, I think it's blue whales that have those filters on their mouth and they filter all the plankton. So they eat these tiny, tiny things. So they have to literally just open their mouth and like crawl the entire ocean to get enough calories.

• 43:35Tom Bilyeu?

  You don't want to be in that position. You want a little bit of sunlight to go a long way because the sunlight is calorie dense or energy dense, probably just to stick with reality instead of the analogy. It's, it is very energy dense, but we're very bad at capturing that energy. So if AI can come in and solve that problem, then it's like, oh my God, everything that you have, you have for free. So if we can capture the energy potential of a dam of water, because it has so much force in the way that it moves, then you can drive the cost of everything down. And the energy needs of AI are so massive that you have to find new ways to generate that energy,

• 44:18Tom Bilyeu?

  either capture the energy from the sun better, capture the energy from water better,

• 44:23Tom Bilyeu?

  nuclear energy, whatever it's going to be, but you've got to be orders of magnitude more energy rich than you are now. And so every country is going to want their own energy supply. They, they should already because it's already so important. But if AI is the ultimate weapon, more potent than nuclear, then

• 44:44Tom Bilyeu?

  Everybody is gonna race to control their own AI. And to do that, you have to have the energy.

• 44:50Speaker 02

  That supports it. Yeah, that makes sense. And then also in future tech news coming out of China. Commercial takeoff is official. China just cleared the first flying taxis. So straight out of the jets. These are autonomous, no pilot, no problem. Right now, they have, they will be doing stuff for delivery, logistics, urban transit are next in line. But right now, this is just limited to sightseeing by the sky. So I think it's one of those things to start off with tourism, do a couple of test flights, make sure a couple of rich people are good. Then after that, I see the Alibaba's deliveries of China. People are probably gonna be dropping pizzas off this way. Like, this is the future.

• 45:30Tom Bilyeu?

  Oh, you've already, I think there are already people doing deliveries with this. And I remember when Amazon, and this had to be like 10 years ago. Or more, Amazon was like, we're gonna start doing deliveries by drone. And I was like, ah, ha, ha, that sounds hilarious. Now I'm like, yeah, obviously. So, yeah, this, this is a question of when a couple of them fall from the sky, as they inevitably will, and kill people on the ground, will we go, yeah, okay, we're not gonna do this? Or does this just become the future? Because it is far better than ground-based travel. It is so much faster. You can stack cars now vertically instead of just horizontally. So I mean, it's just, the quality of life improvements will be dramatic.

• 46:14Tom Bilyeu?

  But you have two options. You can go up or you can go down. So Elon's bet is that drilling tunnels is gonna be the right answer because people are gonna be so freaked out when one of these crashes. That will just never go for it. So we'll see. I don't know which of those two are gonna win. If I had to guess.

• 46:34Tom Bilyeu?

  It's so much easier to build the flying ones. You probably just, you do that unless really, really it it's killing a terrifying number of people. If it has like, you know, let's say a couple hundred deaths a year, people will probably rock with it. But if it's like a thousand people are gonna start being like, yeah, it's not worth it. It's too scary. Like when someone's kid gets fucking decapitated by one of these waiting at the school bus station. It's gonna be like, no, hard pass.

• 47:01Speaker 02

  I was gonna take, uh, and then we had this, we reviewed it during our live, the first robotic surgery. That was done remotely. So as you're seeing on the right side, there was a doctor in a different part of China. That was wirelessly controlling an autonomous robot on the other side, well robotic like arms. To perform surgery.

• 47:20Tom Bilyeu?

  This is so incredible. I mean, this is breathtaking. Now I, this hits me on two levels. One, uh, it really do be like that in China, like there.

• 47:32Tom Bilyeu?

  It's very impressive.

• 47:32Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 47:33Tom Bilyeu?

  And then two, the future is so bright. And we are in this age of just rapid development. This is thrilling, man. And I really believe in 10 years, there's no universe in which you would let a human operate on you. Just like, no way. Just as you would never let a human drive you in a car, hard pass. Because the rate at which the robots and the AI make errors would just be dramatically lower. It's not that they won't. It's that it will be dramatically less than a human. Like, think about how different you feel when you sleep poorly. Think about the fact that you are way more likely to get paroled. If the um, person on the parole committee has just eaten.

• 48:19Tom Bilyeu?

  That's crazy.

• 48:20Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 48:20Tom Bilyeu?

  We, we are so fallible from our ability to actually think clearly, lack of sleep. To our uh, ability to bypass our emotions, hunger.

• 48:35Tom Bilyeu?

  You can't have that, man. You cannot have that. So as we bring things on board that don't suffer from those same foibles, we're gonna lean into them in a major way.

• 48:44Speaker 02

  Yeah. And then kind of closing that loop, even their toys seem fun. Another Chinese robot, uh, but this one is an AI pet.

• 48:52Tom Bilyeu?

  I'm so jealous. This is exactly the kind of thing I want to do for Kaizen.

• 48:57Speaker 02

  This is the exotics, right?

• 48:58Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah.

• 48:59Speaker 02

  This will be dope.

• 49:00Tom Bilyeu?

  Except I hate to admit that that's, our first version won't be like that because I don't want to have to deal with all the articulation. But the um, LED eyes is what we're aiming for. Um, but it'll be static. This thing is so cool, man, that I guarantee that, call it two Christmases from now, it's gonna be stuff like this, like just nonstop violence. And you're going to, um, you probably won't get there in two Christmases, but five Christmases from now, you're gonna get devices that sync up with one AI. So that you have an AI from the time you're a little kid as you age and it's just everywhere. It's in your computer, it's in your phone, it's in your fridge, it's in your toy.

• 49:43Tom Bilyeu?

  And some people might give different objects, different personalities. That's also possible, but

• 49:49Tom Bilyeu?

  oh man, this is so exciting to me. And I know some people, they don't like what they see. Uh, when they see this stuff, I, I am deeply enthralled. It, it has pushed my creativity out 10 times farther than I ever thought I would be in my life. I was talking to a bunch of people that many, many people on this uh, live would know. And in fact, some of you said last night that you listened. So hi.

• 50:15Tom Bilyeu?

  Very talented, very successful people that are like, it is so tempting to stop doing half of what I do and just create with AI. And I feel it, man. I feel that same impulse of what are the things in my life I can stop doing? Because all of a sudden, even for me, somebody with a lot of money, man, you still hit barrier after barrier after barrier. And

• 50:44Tom Bilyeu?

  The thought of just like all the things that you can make, build, create with AI is extravagantly cool. So I'm excited for people. I think this is this, there's a period of terrifying and we have an episode coming out with Mogadad. You guys are going to want to watch that. That one was, it was breathtaking even as we were filming it. At the end, you and I looked at each other and we're like, oh damn, that was a banger. Um, there's no doubt that there's going to be a massive period of disruption that we're going to go through and that period is going to be rough. On the other side, something pretty extraordinary.

• 51:18Speaker 02

  Tesla is dealing with a period of disruption right now. Um, their lowest quarterly drop in deliveries ever. Sales plunged 13% for the first three months of the year. The EV maker said on Wednesday had delivered 1300, 300, 300 and 36, 681 vehicles for the quarter as deliveries from

• 51:37Tom Bilyeu?

  So sorry, one more time, 336,000.

• 51:40Speaker 02

  680, I know I was forgetting a word. Um, and it plunged for the sixth consecutive month, um, projecting a global sales route.

• 51:49Speaker 02

  Everybody's blaming China, but their deliveries in China actually went up. They're still technically, I think, the number one in China. Um,

• 51:55Tom Bilyeu?

  That's what Elon would have you believe. He just posted something again, spin, spin. It, both things may be true. We are the number one in a certain category. Uh, and our sales are down 13%. Both of those things can be true at once. So, yeah, I mean, look, this is, uh, whether this is all of it or not, the impacts of Elon becoming political are probably the most interesting thing to look at because

• 52:26Tom Bilyeu?

  we live in a divided world where people really want to know what you stand for. In fact, we were during the live, which guys, join us for the lives, Tuesday, Thursday, Friday, 6 a.m. Pacific time. Um, we were talking about the hinge game and the woman like tap, tap, tap on the things that really mattered to her. Uh, this is, one of the things that she was tapping on like crazy is somebody who identifies as moderate. And she's just, I'm not going to date somebody that isn't presumably left-leaning. Um,

• 53:01Tom Bilyeu?

  People want to know about the companies and the people that they talk to. It's um, it's a real thing. And so you ignore that at your own peril. Trump tried to, to warn Elon. I'm maybe not directly, but I remember in his first term, he was like, yo, I underestimated how bad this was going to be for my business.

• 53:22Speaker 02

  And uh, there are reports that Elon will be stepping down from Doge in the upcoming months, but nothing concrete has been established, no timeline yet.

• 53:29Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, so Elon on Doge, yes, it is inevitable that he's going to step down. He said from the beginning that he's going to step down. The question is, uh, is Trump going, uh-oh, like this is really becoming a liability?

• 53:43Tom Bilyeu?

  Maybe, because if you can keep doing Doge, but without all of the fanfare that surrounds Elon, maybe that is better.

• 53:56Tom Bilyeu?

  The only thing I would say is from Trump's perspective, Elon's taking the bullets, not him. So if I know I'm going to do Doge, I would rather have Elon for as long as I can get him. Technically, that's what Trump is saying. Now, whether that is really what Trump means or that's been, I don't know. But yeah, if I'm Elon, the amount of shareholder pressure he must be getting, it's got to be insane. So um, there's tremendous pressure on him just to focus. There's tremendous pressure on him to stop being a lightning rod. I mean, you've got people putting Toyota logos on their Tesla. So yeah, this has definitely not been good for business.

• 54:34Speaker 02

  This has been popping off around the internet as a lot of people have heard the Joe Rogan, Constantine Kissing, um, Trigunobshu guys podcast, where he called Trump's deportations horrific when he was talking about certain people weren't getting due process.

• 54:48Speaker 07

  So there's still people coming through.

• 54:50Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 54:50Speaker 07

  And there's probably still people coming through that are criminals.

• 54:52Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 54:53Speaker 07

  You know, but the thing is like,

• 54:56Speaker 07

  you gotta get scared that people who are not criminals are getting like, lassoed up and deported and sent to like, El Salvador prisons, like that kind of shit. Cause I'm, I read some story, it was a Glenn Greenwald.

• 55:11Speaker 02

  Yeah, yeah, the gay barber guy. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, it's scary, man.

• 55:14Speaker 07

  Is that true? Is that story accurate?

• 55:16Speaker 02

  I don't think we know.

• 55:17Speaker 07

  Can you explain the story for people that don't know?

• 55:19Speaker 02

  Well, from what I read, I think it was in Time Magazine, Jamie, if you can pull it up, and maybe we can get it accurate. But basically with a bunch of these Trendor Agua guys.

• 55:28Speaker 06

  Allegedly, they got one guy who, at least one guy, who wasn't a criminal. Uh, who was just a gay barber, who I think, according to the story, came here legally. He was here legally. That's what they said. Don't know if it's true.

• 55:40Speaker 07

  So, did he have a green card?

• 55:42Speaker 06

  I don't know what the details are. Maybe Jamie can find it.

• 55:44Speaker 07

  No criminal record?

• 55:45Speaker 06

  From what it said in that story. Now, this is the problem, right? Because the mainstream media has been putting out so much shit that I don't know what to believe anymore, right?

• 55:52Speaker 07

  I feel the same way.

• 55:53Speaker 06

  It's, and, and so it's difficult, but it's something that we actually brought up in one of our conversations. We interviewed the guy from the Heritage Foundation. We brought this up. Because I think, we talked about this with Doge as well. When you do things quickly and you do things aggressively, that's how you get shit done. But that's also when mistakes get made.

• 56:10Speaker 07

  Right.

• 56:10Speaker 06

  And I think a human being being plucked out of nowhere and ending up in a country he's never been in, in a maximum security prison with gang members, seems like a bad thing to happen to me.

• 56:21Speaker 07

  It's horrific. It's horrific.

• 56:23Speaker 06

  I don't think that should be controversial.

• 56:24Speaker 07

  No, that's not controversial at all.

• 56:26Tom Bilyeu?

  The things that I've seen people respond to with this is basically, um, this is so crazy. This is a, he supported Trump and so like, basically shut up and take your medicine. And I don't understand that impulse. So that is team behavior where it's like you voted for Trump. Therefore, you have to, it is presumed that you co-sign everything that he does. Um, to me, this is pretty straightforward. Again, Vance had a response to this that, um, I hated. So take that for what it's worth, but it was basically like, um, he was here illegally. He had parking violations. I'm not kidding. Uh, this is not father of the year. That's so close to verbatim. It, it might, people are going to say that I'm not characterizing that warmly.

• 57:10Tom Bilyeu?

  Oh, guys, pretty close. So, yeah, here, here is the truth.

• 57:18Tom Bilyeu?

  You can't let illegal people come into your country. Make a policy. Let the voters have their say.

• 57:26Tom Bilyeu?

  If you've let people come into your country and they are violent criminals, get them out. If you have a process where you are going to deport the worst among them, make sure that you have a mechanism by which you make sure that these are really the worst among them. Now, according, if I understood Vance correctly, he was saying, hey, an immigration judge looked at this and said, yeah, this guy qualifies. Okay, uh, that would be, in my opinion, uh, uh, it's entirely possible I don't know something about him and he really has done bad things, worse than a parking ticket. That's fucking outrageous that he would have the gall to look the American people in the eye and be like, well, he's, he's got traffic tickets. Uh, that's crazy town. Now, that doesn't mean you don't deport them. If you're here illegally,

• 58:11Tom Bilyeu?

  yay, like you are going to get deported. I have no beef with that. But when you're like, it's the early rounds of like, these are the really bad ones, guys, that we're snatching up and you're sending them to a prison in El Salvador that's like max security. This is not a fun place while you wait to see if things are going on. Like for that, you just have to be like way more careful. And then you absolutely have to have a corrective mechanism. I'm all for the way that, uh, the Trump administration has said it many times. We're going to move fast, we're going to make mistakes, but we're going to correct those mistakes. Cool. Correct this mistake. Like if either come out and say, listen, this is this guy's rap sheet and this is why we sent him. Good, good catch from where we're sitting.

• 58:56Tom Bilyeu?

  Or, hey, this is how he got caught up. This was our mistake. We've got him back and we will do this in the future. If somebody, uh, gets caught up in a sweep and they end up not being the right person, then here is the mechanism by which that we make sure that they're able to get back out.

• 59:12Tom Bilyeu?

  Uh, that is not a politician's way. A politician's way is to double down and to spin.

• 59:17Speaker 02

  He's not gonna apologize. He's not gonna forgive. It's... I hope it's not as simple as a product of racial profiling because then that's just gonna open them up to a bunch of new attacks. And you would never see this with a Denmark immigrant who's here. Like, it's gonna be so much just what aboutisms that like spin out from this. So to me.

• 59:36Tom Bilyeu?

  Hold on.

• 59:36Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 59:37Tom Bilyeu?

  So, okay. Ooh, let's give the internet clips that they're gonna be able to run with. You have to find ways, this is like Hinge. You have to find ways to narrow the population that you have to comb through. This is why we say the suspect looks like XYZ.

• 59:56Tom Bilyeu?

  Let's make it Eastern European. I would say, you can actually tell when somebody's Eastern European. Not all the time, but there's a look. And if you wanna say, I'm trying to keep them as wide as possible. If you wanna say, hey, our problem is with Eastern Europeans. Great racially profile. I'm here for it. And obviously, I'm here for it across all of the things. If you can say, Trend Aragua, Trend Aragua. I don't even know what the fucking, I've heard it said a million times, but never seen it written down. Whatever the gang is, MS-13, that one's easier.

• 1:00:28Tom Bilyeu?

  We know that 98% of them are Hispanic. Cool. If you're trying to catch MS-13, guess what? You don't have to comb through all the black people. So it's like, you know, okay, I might miss 2% of people because they don't match the racial profile. But if I'm trying to get MS-13, I'm gonna start there.

• 1:00:46Speaker 02

  Then to me, this is a non-story because this guy's a 2%.

• 1:00:50Speaker 02

  And if it's just a shoulder shrug, it's a shoulder shrug. I think it's fucked up. I don't think it's a shoulder shrug.

• 1:00:53Tom Bilyeu?

  Explain to me how he's the 2%.

• 1:00:55Speaker 02

  Because you say, if we have to comb through, what you just said verbatim was, MS-13 is 98% Hispanic. I don't need to comb through the black guys. So I'm gonna get it right, but there's gonna be 2% that, oh, okay, maybe they weren't. They were Hispanic, but maybe they weren't MS-13.

• 1:01:09Tom Bilyeu?

  Right?

• 1:01:10Speaker 02

  Yeah, so he's one of the people that was profiled, ended up in jail.

• 1:01:15Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, I'm saying, I'm saying something different about the two percent. So I'm saying maybe two percent of MS-13 are black. And that you should go through the black guys because you're gonna miss those two percent. I'm just saying, forget it. If two percent of them are black, but 98% are Hispanic, and I need a heuristic by which I narrow the population that I have to search, you're gonna waste your fucking time going through all the black guys because 98% of MS-13 aren't black. So let's focus on, and if it was the colors of the rainbow, then racial profiling is not gonna help you. But I'm guessing, and I have not looked super closely at this, God, at the risk of just getting myself in all kinds of trouble. Anyway, say what you believe to be true. Uh, if Trend Aragua, I'm looking at my Mexican friend over here, how's it pronounced?

• 1:02:01Tom Bilyeu?

  What's the name of the gang, you know? Trend Aragua. Trend Aragua. Was that pretty close? My man, thank you. Okay, so, uh, if you know that they are Hispanic, uh, then yes, racial profile. So the only thing I was picking up on was racial profile. Not that you shouldn't be fucking hyper careful to try everything you can to avoid getting somebody who's innocent. You absolutely must have some mechanism by which you go, this fucking guy is innocent. And P S, don't be an arrogant dickhead when you're sending people to a fucking max security prison with ultra violent criminals, doing like all the filming, standing in front of the like prison and stuff. Ah, yeah, you gotta be, you gotta be careful, man. You gotta be careful.

• 1:02:46Speaker 02

  I'm okay if you fire somebody on accident because you give them their job back. I don't know if I'm okay with you sending them to a maximum security prison in another country by accident. I can't speak Spanish. If I got sent there, I'm screwed.

• 1:02:57Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah. Okay, so I can map your base assumptions then. So you, your base assumption is that it is far better to let criminals go free than it is to capture one innocent man.

• 1:03:11Speaker 02

  Tom.

• 1:03:12Tom Bilyeu?

  We'll say it the way you would say it.

• 1:03:13Speaker 02

  No, that's a, that's a jump. I would say that when it comes to economic cuts, it's a bit, it's okay to move fast and break things.

• 1:03:23Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah.

• 1:03:23Speaker 02

  When it comes to human rights, maybe you should measure twice, cut once.

• 1:03:27Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay, but take it out of analogy and now give me a rule that you can write down that I as I's follow to the letter.

• 1:03:34Speaker 02

  Due process for people who are gonna get deported.

• 1:03:36Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay, now they're saying that this guy had due process, that he was brought before a immigration judge and the immigration judge was like, yep.

• 1:03:50Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:03:51Tom Bilyeu?

  So I'm trying to get to, because I agree with you, yay, due process. Uh, I'm trying to get to.

• 1:03:58Speaker 02

  So then it's the judge's fault, the judge messed up.

• 1:04:00Tom Bilyeu?

  Sure, but do you believe that?

• 1:04:04Speaker 02

  Violent criminals should be deported?

• 1:04:05Tom Bilyeu?

  Hmm, slightly different. Where, where would you draw the line? How many innocent people are you okay with getting caught up? Before you say, I would rather just the criminals go free?

• 1:04:16Speaker 02

  It's, I'm not saying that they need to have a hundred percent accuracy, because I feel like we can't even have a hundred percent accuracy in anything. That would be asking somebody to be perfect. And no system, especially not in America is perfect, of course.

• 1:04:28Speaker 02

  But something like this, where somebody is.

• 1:04:32Tom Bilyeu?

  Can I give you a number to react to?

• 1:04:33Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 1:04:34Tom Bilyeu?

  For me, the number would be point one.

• 1:04:36Speaker 02

  Point one percent?

• 1:04:37Tom Bilyeu?

  Point one percent error rate. If you, if you're point one, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, one, you gotta fucking pump the brakes. Your system is not working. That's a gut feel, but like, I know at some point this has to become a number that you can write down. And if they're exceeding that, then cool. From my perspective, uh, you have a moral issue on your hands.

• 1:05:02Speaker 02

  Um, we're gonna do the numbers on how many people have been sent to El Salvador. And if it's a higher than point zero zero one.

• 1:05:09Tom Bilyeu?

  No, higher than point one.

• 1:05:10Speaker 02

  Point one. If it's higher than point one, then you would get on the, this is horrific and we need to.

• 1:05:15Tom Bilyeu?

  It is horrific, no matter what. A single person in a Brazilian is like, fuck, that is. I, I shudder to think how many people have been put to death or spent. I interviewed a guy that spent, I think, almost 20 years in prison. Uh, for a crime he did not commit, was exonerated and dude, I can't fathom like that. That is a level of horrific, but my punchline isn't stop doing the justice system. Uh, but with the way that they're handling deportations, if the punchline is greater than point one, I'm like, the way you're doing it isn't working for me. Uh, and again, I haven't thought about that. That's just a gut instinct. Um, I don't know that this will play well as somebody who speaks into a mic for a living,

• 1:06:00Tom Bilyeu?

  but I'm a big believer that you should force yourself to express what you think currently. And then you adjust as you see that there are holes in your logic. So anyway, this is me journaling. I'm trying to figure out if this makes sense.

• 1:06:15Tom Bilyeu?

  But yeah, I think people need to have a number and then you can, then you can actually judge the system and say, cool, I gave you a KPI. Are we hitting it or not? And then we can debate the KPI and some people are going to say, Tom, that's ridiculous. You're never going to have something that low. Other people are going to say, Tom, that's ridiculous. You, you can't fucking do that. You can't point one, like that's asinine. Cool. But now we can have a debate, but if people aren't willing to say what their value system is, what their numbers are, like, we're never going to make progress because we just yell back and forth. So anyway, that's my stance in life. Say what you think is true, be willing to adjust.

• 1:06:45Speaker 02

  Cool. Hard pivot time. Ready?

• 1:06:47Tom Bilyeu?

  Hard, hard. Let's go.

• 1:06:48Speaker 02

  All right. Crypto news. Uh, Doug Dorsey had an interesting interview that was released on bitcoinnews.com. He was asked if Bitcoin failed 20 years from now, how would that have happened? So let's fast forward to the future and Bitcoin has failed. How did it fail?

• 1:07:06Speaker 06

  It fails through irrever- irrelevance, like it just, it fails to be relevant to people on a daily basis.

• 1:07:16Speaker 06

  If it just ends up being store of value and nothing more, I don't, I don't think it gains relevance at all. Like, I think it has to be payments for it to be relevant on the everyday. Otherwise, it's just something you kind of buy and forget and only use in emergency situations or when you want to get liquid again. So I think if it doesn't transition to payments and find that everyday use case, it just gets increasingly irrelevant. And that's fair, that's fair to me.

• 1:07:48Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, I can't say that I share his logic. So I would say that Bitcoin is already hyper relevant, but it is not a currency.

• 1:07:59Tom Bilyeu?

  The shift that Bitcoin has gone through from being a currency to being a store of value, I think, made a lot of sense. So I wouldn't call myself a Bitcoin historian, but I would not be at all surprised to see that Bitcoin really started to gain steam as that narrative began to gain steam. That is certainly what got me into it. That was the thing that made me go, ooh, this is, as I understood inflation, I saw that that was a great way to step outside of inflation. Now, what's crazy is that Bitcoin remains correlated to the performance of the market, which people do not predict. But all I can tell you is why I invest in it. When you take somebody like Michael Saylor, Michael Saylor doesn't, I don't want to speak for him, but

• 1:08:41Tom Bilyeu?

  everything I've heard him say, this is not about being a currency. This is about the, it's a high vol asset, so there's high volatility, which people want, which is why I think the true brilliance of Saylor is that he pulled the gambling mechanisms of the stock market on top of the volatility of Bitcoin. So I've explained that many times, so I'll, I'll leave it at that. But that, to me, is hyper relevant, like people clearly. His company, I forget their call sign, MSTR, I think. They are one of the most successful stocks.

• 1:09:24Tom Bilyeu?

  Of the last 10 years, I mean, they they have just absolutely smashed it by saying people love Bitcoin, they love the volatility, and now I can pull all of the

• 1:09:38Tom Bilyeu?

  all of the mechanisms like shorts puts calls on top of it and people have gone crazy and rewarded them with a ton of cash.

• 1:09:50Speaker 02

  So we'll have to keep keep eyes on it, but 10, 20 years from now, digital future, robots everywhere, AI is taking over the world, blockchain in full effect. Do you think Bitcoin is still going to be a volatile upward swing asset? Or is it going to get boring like silver, gold, and how we kind of compare that now?

• 1:10:06Tom Bilyeu?

  It strikes me as inevitable that anything popular like Bitcoin is is going to stabilize over time. So I long for the day when it's a nice boring place to park my money. That's my personal thing. I get why traders love the volatility. I am not a trader. I want a place where my parents can put their savings and it's not going to be inflated away. I don't want people to have to play in the stock market in order to beat inflation. I hate everything about that. People should be able to do the stock market. I love the stock, love the stock market. I love what it stands for and how it works. It's all amazing. But I hate that you are forced to go into the stock market to avoid the absolute horror show that is inflation. So yeah, that would be

• 1:10:50Tom Bilyeu?

  great. But the reality is, I think on a long enough timeline, certainly if we start talking 30 years, you're post capitalist or a nuclear war, take your pick, or AI enslavement. But you you don't unless AI hits an upper bound. I should probably laugh so people know that I'm sort of kidding. Ha, ha, ha.

• 1:11:10Speaker 02

  No, that was a nervous laugh. That wasn't it. It was funny. That was.

• 1:11:12Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, I actually think that's pretty true. Unless there's an upper bound to intelligence, which I don't see any current reason to believe that there will be, especially not as more people bring on dams that impact the rotation speed of the earth.

• 1:11:31Tom Bilyeu?

  I don't think there's gonna be an upper bound. You will hit artificial superintelligence. At that point, you will be able to capture every drop of energy from the sun. And at that point, once you have robotics and free energy, you have free everything. And so then the only question is, does this become the virtual world utopian paradise that I like to fantasize about? Or does this become a brave new world and everybody's on drugs?

• 1:11:59Speaker 02

  Well, I'm gonna keep trading because I need to be able to afford Mario Kart. Because it's gonna be eighty dollars now.

• 1:12:03Tom Bilyeu?

  Oh, let's go.

• 1:12:05Speaker 02

  Eighty dollars for the digital edition and ninety dollars if I want a physical disc that's upward from the new sixty-nine, seventy-nine base lines. How do you feel about the ten dollar increase in the video game market?

• 1:12:17Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, I have a totally different reaction to this. And I say this as a game developer. Everybody's gonna say, oh, he's rich. It's easy for him. Here's the reality. The reason that, and I love that meme, the reason that I think this is an absolute nothing burger is there are so many games out there, so many that are free. So the game that I play the most is Fortnite. It is a free to play game. I never have to spend a single dime, except on internet. And I can play that game as much as I want. So there are, there are thousands of games. If you go to Steam right now, thousands of games. And there, the vast majority of them are free or cheap. So this is about beef of saying, I wanna play Mario Kart and I'm bitter that it's eighty

• 1:13:02Tom Bilyeu?

  dollars. But you're gonna be able to have all the fun in the world. You do not have to spend money. Once you have either a PC or a console, there are gonna be plenty of games that are free to play. So take advantage of those games. And it is what it is. Games have always been expensive. When I was a kid and couldn't afford shit, games were like, felt outrageously expensive. So back then, though, you couldn't get around it. There was no such thing as a free game. So having gone through all these cycles, I'm like, whoa, I don't understand why people are complaining in a world where you can get. More games than you could ever play in a lifetime, more free games than you could ever play in a lifetime, more high-quality free games. It's just, yeah, I think people are looking at the wrong thing.

• 1:13:46Speaker 02

  Yeah, and I think Tyler at 90 Genics had the best tweet about this. Rockstar watching all of us react to Mario Kart being $80, knowing that they about to drop GTA 6 for $100. So, yeah, I'll pay $100 for GTA 6.

• 1:13:59Tom Bilyeu?

  You and me both, dude. I have a feeling GTA 6 is gonna be a tectonic shift in the gaming industry. From the footage that I've seen from that game, it is unreal.

• 1:14:09Speaker 02

  Crazy.

• 1:14:10Tom Bilyeu?

  And if it becomes a creator economy thing, I think it's absolutely gonna smash. If you didn't see our latest live, enjoy these highlights.

• 1:14:18Speaker 06

  When we were out for dinner, he's like, "Yeah, I don't sleep with women on the first date." And I was like, "Oh, that's so refreshing."

• 1:14:25Tom Bilyeu?

  I should have been more clear. I have not yet been able to sleep.

• 1:14:29Speaker 06

  I was 21 years old, so when he said that, I took it as truth.

• 1:14:33Tom Bilyeu?

  It was true.

• 1:14:34Speaker 06

  Then you invite me back to his place. I was like, "Well, he doesn't sleep with a woman on the first date, so I'm fine." And then, at what, 3:00 in the morning, you start to make the move. We were talking, I mean, we had the most amazing, I know you said this, electric first date, but we were up and you didn't read me some of your poetry, which was amazing. And we had such an amazing time, but then you definitely made a move. I was like, "I thought you didn't make your move." Luckily, I had, tip to any women out there. You may hate this tip, but when I was so sexually attracted to you, that concern of, "I didn't wanna sleep with you on the first date because I didn't wanna be like that woman." I don't know what that woman is, because now I'm just like, "Hey ladies, do you?" But I was like, but I didn't want to succumb to my sexual desires.

• 1:15:18Speaker 06

  So you don't shave your legs. That's the trick. As a woman, you don't shave your legs. Because no matter how much sexual attraction you have, you're like, "Oh shit, can't have him see my hairy legs." It was a game changer. It helped me. And then, of course, then it worked out in the end.

• 1:15:35Tom Bilyeu?

  It did, but we did not sleep together on the first date, much to my dismay.

• 1:15:38Speaker 06

  No, we didn't.

• 1:15:39Tom Bilyeu?

  Much to my dismay. Probably, honestly, probably for the best.

• 1:15:42Speaker 06

  Well, we actually did sleep.

• 1:15:44Tom Bilyeu?

  Yes.

• 1:15:44Speaker 06

  We just didn't have sex.

• 1:15:45Tom Bilyeu?

  We slept.

• 1:15:46Speaker 06

  And you froze me out with.

• 1:15:48Tom Bilyeu?

  And I went, oh, people with. Throws you out. With the air conditioning.

• 1:15:51Speaker 02

  You hugged all the.

• 1:15:52Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, sorry, not emotionally. By the way, I don't know if you guys saw the stat. Or your kitty, somebody said. I heard you guys talking. So. You're not gonna acknowledge that? What was it? It said, don't shave the kitty. Oh, well. Hilarious. You've always got to keep.

• 1:16:07Speaker 02

  Yeah, there was that thing. One of my friends was like, men think that when a woman has matching panty sets that they were like, oh, she just put it all together. It was like, no, she was flinging this the whole time. Like, women know when they're going to be.

• 1:16:18Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, she's got your grandma underwear that you wear. You know, you're completely safe. Somebody scandalized that I was your teacher. Oh, my God, yes. In a different era. All right. So I got some stats because I did some relationship episodes. Hot girl summer. And it was about height and how picky men are compared to how picky women are. I heard you guys talk about it. So I pulled up my stat.

• 1:16:37Speaker 02

  As you're doing your Hamilton deep dive, did you see those petty, those seeds of pettiness even back then? Sheesh.

• 1:16:45Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, like they, they were saying the, the author of the book makes a really good point. And he's like, history remembers these guys with reverence. But in the middle of it, they're calling each other names or like Hamilton's being accused of adultery and like, which, from what I can tell was just true. So it, it was just as ugly and messy back then. And history gives you heroes that you can look up to. But as you will remind us, Washington was a slaveholder. So it's like, you, you really, humans are messy, flawed creatures, always have been.

• 1:17:25Tom Bilyeu?

  And until we augment ourselves with AI, always will be. So I took myself from scrounging my couch cushions to find enough change to put gas in my car. So imagine what that life is like. You're paying one bill this month, another bill the next month, absolutely terrified. How are you going to make everything work? To recording this from my ridiculously large mansion.

• 1:17:45Tom Bilyeu?

  And it was all on the back of learning to think from first principles. And very specifically saying, I have a desired outcome. Now that I know my desired outcome, that goal makes demands. And then you can backtrack via first principles. What are the things I would have to do to get to that desired outcome? And if you can play the game like that, instead of the emotional game of what feels good, which is what everybody wants to do, I have the same impulse that anybody has. But if you can train yourself and if we can train ourselves as a community to not do that. And instead go, okay, I don't have a team here other than I have, I have a stated goal. That's a way better way to think about it. I have a stated goal, not a team.

• 1:18:28Tom Bilyeu?

  And here are the things that I think that I have to do to get to that stated goal. What I see, the way that I see this playing out is this is playing out as a team sport. This is not playing, meaning I go to bat for my team, no matter what. People do it on the right, people do it on the left. This, this is the political game. Let us not fall prey to that. If you haven't already left us a five star review, wherever you get your podcasts, go give us a five star review. It helps more than you know. And if you're not joining us on YouTube or Twitch for our lives, make sure that you do. They are Tuesday, Thursday and Friday at 6am Pacific time. We'll see you there. Until next time, my friends, be legendary. Peace. Let's talk about a pattern that is guaranteed to be killing your progress. You know what you need to do. You need consistent nutrition.

• 1:19:13Tom Bilyeu?

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