The Political Power Play: Shutdowns, Spin, and the ACA’s Unintended Consequences | Tom Bilyeu Show

What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here: If you want my help... STARTING a business:join me here at ZERO TO FOUNDER https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show: https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show SCALING a business:see if you qualify here. https://tombilyeu.com/call: https://tombilyeu.com/call Get my battle-tested strategies and insights delivered weekly to your inbox:sign up here. https://tombilyeu.com/: https://tombilyeu.com/ ********************************************************************** If you're serious about leveling up your life, I urge you to check out my new podcast,Tom Bilyeu’s Mindset Playbook https://open.spotify.com/show/47VE90Cittmo6TGGFqg2xf —a goldmine of my most impactful episodes on mindset, business, and health. Trust me, your future self will thank you. ********************************************************************** FOLLOW TOM: Instagram:https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok:https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter:https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu Linkedin: Post your job free at https://linkedin.com/impacttheory HomeServe: Help protect your home systems – and your wallet – with HomeServe against covered repairs. Plans start at just $4.99 a month at https://homeserve.com Bevel Health: 1st month FREE at https://bevel.health/impact with code IMPACT ButcherBox: Your choice of holiday protein — ham or turkey in your first box, or ground beef for life — plus $20 off at https://butcherbox.com/impact Shopify: Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial period at https://shopify.com/impact Incogni: Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code IMPACT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/impact BlandAI: Call it for free today: https://bland.aiOr for enterprises, you can book a demo directly: https://bland.ai/enterprise Connectteam: 14 day free trial at https://connecteam.cc/46GxoTFd Raycon: Go to https://buyraycon.com/impactto get up to 30% off sitewide. 00:00 Intro 00:45 Government Shutdown 10:27 Affordable Care Act Debate 25:57 Scott Bessent on The Argentina Currency Swap 33:58 Kash Patel's GF Goes Lawfare 41:25 South Korea Censors 'Misinformation' 46:21 Nvidia Stock + AI Everything Bubble 01:03:14 AI Country Song Tops The Chart Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices https://megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Tom Bilyeu?

  Let's talk about the moment your side hustle becomes a real business. Now, I see way too many founders stay stuck running their business like it's a hobby, and then they wonder why nothing ever feels real. It doesn't feel real because it's not. I've helped thousands of entrepreneurs build real businesses through Impact Theory University, and the first step in the path to building a legit business is registering it. And Taylor Brands will help you do just that in a few clicks. An LLC, a limited liability company, is an official business structure. It's inexpensive to form and very simple to maintain. It's how you open a business bank account. It's how customers know they're dealing with a real company. And Taylor Brands doesn't stop at the filing.

• 0:45Tom Bilyeu?

  Their dashboard tracks what comes next based on what your business actually needs. So EIN number, registered agent, licenses and permits, bookkeeping, business banking. I tell every founder the same thing. Just make it official. Click the link in the show notes to check out Taylor Brands and get started on your business today. This is a paid advertisement. Eight Democrats cave, and it looks like the government is set to reopen soon. The debate continues to rage, though, over the Affordable Care Act. Besen slaps a reporter around for not knowing what a currency swap is and swears we've made money off of it. Kash Patel's girlfriend is way out of pocket and sues a social media personality

• 1:28Tom Bilyeu?

  for posting her public photo in the comments of a post. Everyone seems to be selling Nvidia stock, and Sam Altman is still looking for a bailout. South Korea's new president has made disinformation a crime that must be punished as it is now considered a threat to democracy. And an AI country singer hit number one on the Billboard charts, and I've got to admit, the song is an absolute banger.

• 1:54Speaker 01

  Let's talk about the shutdown because I feel like it's a whole big nothing burger. We spent 41 days shut down, and there was no... Additional bill passed. There was some language about farmers and things like that, but nothing that was what we were fighting about. The ACA subsidies didn't budge. SNAP was solidified for the next year so that way they can't get held up again. But what Democrats said they wanted, the subsidies would come back. All the things that they listed, this is why we're standing out. None of those things have happened. And I feel like, from that perspective, you did 41 days to then like, fumble the ball.

• 2:28Tom Bilyeu?

  You're going to have to look at this from the perspective of, does this push Schumer out of power? If he pushed, if it pushed Schumer out of power, then it was a complete loss. And I don't know what was in his head. I don't know what he was actually going for. But they won the sort of midterm midterms. I don't know what the right thing to call that is. But there was a blue wave. And if that wasn't a wake up call for everybody knowing that we're going to start campaigning in the summer, and so you better get your shit together because we are a year out from midterms. And if they happened right now, the Republicans would get their ass handed to them. So, Trump is doing a god awful job of either delivering the actual goods, although like, if you listen to Besen, it's like,

• 3:09Tom Bilyeu?

  things might be better than they seem. Or he's just spinning. So we'll find out. All politicians do is spin. So, if Trump is doing a bad job at communicating it, or it just isn't happening, and Schumer was like, I just need the government to be shut down right now. So people see, like, we're fighting for the every person, which of course they're not. But if we can create that image, then we're gonna win. And they did win. So if he is like, some next level political genius, who's like, no, no, no. That needed to be the story. I needed people to believe, like, we're here, we're fighting for you guys.

• 3:50Tom Bilyeu?

  But really, I just need the Trump administration to look bad, to like, hey, they run the government, and they could do this if they wanted, but they don't. And they just want to steamroll you guys, and they want to double your, um, your healthcare costs. And they don't care if you're starving to death, right? So it was a battle of, everybody was saying the other person is responsible. But clearly, right now, Trump is in a weak position. People are not feeling it. So they're like, ah, just give me the other guy. Whoever the other guy is, I don't really care, just not him. So if you had said, Tom, predict what the Democrats are saying right now, I would have said, oh, they're stoked that he got the blue wave and they're all behind him. But obviously they're not. And so they're having their own internal civil war.

• 4:31Tom Bilyeu?

  They really are pissed, half of them, really are pissed about the fact that they didn't get the ACA stuff. So it's like, this is starting to feel like, call it establishment Democrats, which are playing one game. And then populist Democrats, which are playing another game, the populist Democrats, I'm telling you right now, they are being led. Their spirit animal is Mom Donnie. Okay. You, you, like, he may not be the one in the room telling them what to do, but their spirit animal is Mom Donnie, for sure. I, I'm 10 toes down on that one. So you've got that side, all they want is like, top down.

• 5:15Tom Bilyeu?

  Give people more, spend more free stuff, like, that's all that matters. And so you didn't, you Chuck Schumer did not get more free stuff. Added to the big, beautiful bill, the big, beautiful catastrophe. That would be BBC. I don't know that we want to go with that one. But you heard it here first.

• 5:37Tom Bilyeu?

  So, yeah, the, the very catastrophic bill, we want to make it more catastrophic. So all of that is, um, at least trackable. You can understand that you've got two wings now of the Democratic Party that are really clearly establishing their identity. You've got politics is normal. You've got Schumer going, listen, there's a political game here that you guys aren't playing, that I, we can get what we want. But it really has, at least temporarily, eroded his position in the party, as far as I can see. Like, you've got a lot of big voices, including Ro Khanna, coming after Schumer and saying, yeah, you're feckless. Like, you didn't get us any of the things that we were actually fighting for. So I think that part of the party feels very.

• 6:22Tom Bilyeu?

  Be blindsided by, oh, wait, like, this was all just political bullshit. You weren't actually interested in any of that stuff, which is why you sent out the eight Democrats. This is people's read on it, that he sent out the eight Democrats saying, I didn't authorize this. What are you talking about? But in reality, closed room tells the eight Democrats who just happened to not be up for election at midterms. And says, all right, you guys go cave. Let's get the government open back up. We got what we actually wanted, which was to get these other people elected. Uh, across the country to get the gerrymandering done in California, to get the new DA. Like, you know, all the different things that went blue. We got it. So now we're good.

• 7:04Tom Bilyeu?

  And this wasn't about the Affordable Care Act in the first place. This wasn't about, um, benefits for the poor and working class. It's about power. It's always about power.

• 7:13Speaker 01

  Yeah. I would agree with you, but I do have to push back because if it was the Mom Donnie wing that was kind of up in arms, I would. And even calling it the Mom Donnie wing, it's really Bernie's wing and Mom Donnie is just a spawn of that.

• 7:27Tom Bilyeu?

  Burn Bernie is is basically a corpse. He.

• 7:30Speaker 01

  But Bernie was the OG populist back in 2008. He didn't make it.

• 7:35Tom Bilyeu?

  Bernie is Dr. Dre. It's like, if you're old, Dr. Dre is like, yo, it's Dr. Dre.

• 7:42Speaker 01

  Then that would make AOC 50 Cent and then I'll make Mom Donnie like Eminem.

• 7:45Tom Bilyeu?

  Well, no, because I think AOC is still young enough that she is part of the Mom Donnie wing. She just is, you're used to her now. So she might move up on the national stage. She might become like the president, but if you want to know the candidate, if you want to know. Who has the energy? He's just going all the way. He's saying like the full things that even like an AOC is not all the way out in the way that he like, he has actually said sees the means of production. Now, people want to believe that in the last three years, like he's had some sort of epiphany that the only epiphany he's had is, oh, I can't say those words and get elected. Cool. Got you. I'll keep them in my back pocket.

• 8:28Tom Bilyeu?

  But I'm telling you, like, if either he just blows with the wind. In which case, what are you actually voting for? Or he has an internal worldview and that internal worldview is socialist, which seems pretty easy to believe. He could be updating his mental model as he learns new information. Listen, he could be. I will not doubt that at all, but I will need to see policy moves that make me believe that there are new foundations here, which I do not see. I think that he has energized his base. He's a very slick politician. He knows what he can and can't say. And he's just getting better at that game. But dude, the mountain of stuff that you can find of him just saying the most unhinged shit.

• 9:08Tom Bilyeu?

  So anyway, I think this is somebody with a very deft mental model in that he understands there are certain things you can say in public. There are certain things that you can't. I think that he has become a lightning rod for social attention, which is the lifeblood for any politician. I want to be very clear. If you want to get elected, you have to get attention. To get attention, you either need money or you need the ability to win over the algorithm. He understands how to win over the algorithm. So he's able to get that like bottom up. Literally, I teach this to entrepreneurs. So if somebody comes into zero founder or they come into billion dollar CEO, one of the first things I tell them, because they will ask all the time, like, how do I do paid advertising well?

• 9:48Tom Bilyeu?

  And the answer to doing paid advertising well is to be so good at organic unpaid content that you're just putting a couple, you know, bucks behind it and it takes off like crazy because the content organically is just so good. He's so good at it that if you give him a dollar of campaign funds, he's going to be able to make it perform like 10, unlike somebody like Schumer, who just does not know how to get attention. And so AOC was that, and I think that she still is contemporary enough. She's just not hot. She's not new enough, whereas he's like, he's pushed even farther. He's new. And so there's always just the like, oh, like I haven't seen this before. He has shown them, oh, there's a winning strategy here from a populist standpoint.

• 10:35Tom Bilyeu?

  We're hitting pause for a moment, but there's plenty more ahead, so don't go anywhere. There's a reason Quince sells cashmere for $60, and it isn't the cashmere. It's real 100% Mongolian cashmere. It's the same stuff luxury labels charge a fortune for. Quince just works directly with ethical factories and cuts out the middleman. So there's no need for a markup and no logo tax. The $60 goes to the actual sweater, not the fancy name on the tag. That's why everything they make runs 50 to 80% less. And it's not just the cashmere. I ordered a few things myself, their fleece joggers, a couple of their tees, which I wear obsessively. First thing I noticed was the quality.

• 11:19Tom Bilyeu?

  Soft, well-made, built to hold up. They make down jackets and wool outerwear now too. So upgrade your stuff to things you'll actually wear. Find your next fall favorites at Quince. Download the Quince app for app-exclusive offers or go to quince.com. Get free shipping on your order and 365-day returns, now available in Canada and the UK too. And when Quince asks where you heard about them, let them know it was Impact Theory. It's the best way to support the show. Let's talk about something that genuinely keeps me awake at night. My team at Impact Theory gets hit with phishing scams from bad actors pretending to be me all the time. And they keep getting more sophisticated attacks with details specific enough to look legit.

• 12:05Tom Bilyeu?

  AI has made a lot of things possible, including scams like this. But AI still needs raw material. It gets it from data brokers who sell your name, address, phone number, to anyone willing to pay. Incogni goes after that supply. They handle removal requests across 420-plus harmful broker sites. And they keep checking back as brokers constantly try to relist you. On the Unlimited Plan, the exposure scanner hunts down your information. Send a link, and their privacy experts handle the takedown. Track your progress in the app and get a monthly risk assessment showing exactly where you stand. Go to incogni.com/impact and use code IMPACT for 60% off an annual plan.

• 12:50Tom Bilyeu?

  Incogni is I-N-C-O-G-N-I dot com slash impact. Promo code IMPACT. It's completely risk-free with a 30-day money-back guarantee.

• 13:03Tom Bilyeu?

  Thanks for sticking around. Let's get right back into the action. The Affordable Care Act, I am coming to believe, early days, early days, but I'm coming to believe is an atrocity. And that it can be blamed for how high the prices are, or it's part of the blame. That we have a wildly dysfunctional healthcare system. And so trying to force the government to just pay more and more of that, which will exacerbate the problem because you have a flywheel of government subsidies are the very thing that create this perverse incentive for insurance companies to go, it's $600 if you're not insured, it's $1,300 if you are insured.

• 13:45Tom Bilyeu?

  That's crazy. That is toxic. That is extremely bad. And that is where we are. So I'm saying, ah, I don't want them to get more subsidies for the ACA. I want them to solve that problem. But are those your principles or their principles? Because if those are... That's what I'm saying. So I believe my principles represent math. But yes, those are my principles. And so I'm saying they should have fought for it. I would have more respect for them if they, instead of running a gain and retain strategy, they were running, this is actually what's right for my constituents. So this is the thing I'm going to do. What I believe what is right for constituents. Yeah, like, listen, we're all going to be wrong.

• 14:26Tom Bilyeu?

  A key part of my philosophy is that I always believe I'm right, but I'm not always right. So I have to factor that into the way in which I pursue my own agendas. Like, I've got to be thoughtful. There are times where it's like, yeah, this shouldn't be left up to only me, et cetera, et cetera. So I would have respected their approach, even though I hate what they're fighting for, if they had said, um, this is really the thing that we believe is right. We're gonna go all the way. Now, I would have been arguing vociferously for them to recognize that's terrible, that they are fighting for the wrong thing, that they have the wrong North Star. But I would have respected that they were fighting for the thing that they actually believed,

• 15:11Tom Bilyeu?

  if that's what they actually believed. But I am always surprised by people's behavior. When I run the, oh, they have a moral compass and they're just doing the thing that they think is best. And I'm never confused when I go, this is a gain and retain strategy. So, listen, there are people like Ro Khanna. He does seem pretty consistent, I won't lie. I think he's just wrong about a lot of things. But he really does seem to be like, this is the thing I believe, therefore I'm going after this thing. So it's like, I have respect for him, I can sit down with him, I think he's crazy. I think he's going to make horrendous mistakes for the country. But he seems worthy of respect.

• 15:47Speaker 01

  Yeah. Now diving into the Affordable Care Act. I think that we're playing Monday morning quarterback for a lot of it when we have this conversation. ACA is terrible, it's horrible, we should dismantle it, it should be struck out of the law immediately. And then we didn't take a step back to say, how did we get here? And we don't think about the insurance, the individual mandate being lifted in 2017 when Trump was in office, which was a tent pole to make the math of the ACA kinda makes sense. For those that don't know, the ACA was supposed to be modeled similarly to social security, where everybody's required to have insurance, whether you have it or not, from your job or not. That's why the marketplace was spun up to begin with. So that way healthier, younger people are still paying into the system, and not just the sick people who have insurance.

• 16:26Tom Bilyeu?

  That is god awful, I hate that so much.

• 16:28Speaker 01

  Absolutely, it was either that or 30 million people not have insurance. So we decided that the 30 million people having insurance was more important than everybody chipping in. Everybody's required to have car insurance, now you're required to have health insurance. That was the kind of justification. In 2017, that individual mandate was removed. So now you don't get penalized if you don't have insurance. So of course, younger people flee, and then that raised overall cost, period. Okay, go ahead.

• 16:48Tom Bilyeu?

  If you knew that 60% of drivers drive drunk every day, like, they only ever drive drunk. Every time they get behind the wheel, they are drunk. How would you feel if I said, oh my god, there are so many car accidents, like, we can't keep doing this. Everybody has to have insurance. Oh, and by the way, because there's so many drunk driving accidents, the rates are through the roof. How would you feel?

• 17:15Speaker 01

  The same way I feel now when I pay health insurance, car insurance, even though I haven't had an accident in five years. And my rate keeps going up.

• 17:21Tom Bilyeu?

  Bad.

• 17:22Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 17:23Tom Bilyeu?

  So we just took a really dumb system and made it even dumber. Now, I'm a little hurt that you didn't ask what's the analogy with the drunk driving, but it is the overconsumption of sugar. People are, it isn't just diabetes, but like, these are self-inflicted ones. And so we've got a healthcare system that is going broke under a whole lot of stupidity because we're removing competition because the government is paying for everything.

• 17:49Speaker 01

  I mean, the people are going broke. It's not the healthcare system that's going broke. The healthcare system is doing fine. United Healthcare is posting wins, Kaiser's posting wins.

• 17:57Tom Bilyeu?

  Thank you for the question. The country is going broke.

• 17:59Speaker 01

  That is going, yeah, they're going broke.

• 18:00Tom Bilyeu?

  Because one of the many grotesque expenses that we have is subsidizing healthcare.

• 18:08Speaker 01

  If we were to go back, I know your austerity plan, from your, like, the SNAP conversation we had last week, some people's got to figure it out. Sorry, go to a church, they can figure it out. Healthcare was supposed to be something different. We thought, okay, insurance kicking people off who had cancer, that was wrong. We should make that a law that it's not. That will require healthcare. But it seems like the, the energy going now is, yeah, those people should get kicked off their healthcare and they'll have to figure it out. Is that?

• 18:37Tom Bilyeu?

  You think that's what I'm saying?

• 18:38Speaker 01

  I'm, I think you're saying the ACA needs to be repealed. And I'm saying if you think that the ACA needs to be repealed, then pre-existing conditions come back. And if pre-existing conditions come back, people can then lose their health insurance. So that's the second order, cause and effect of repealing the ACA right now in this moment.

• 18:52Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, well, so we have to separate right now in this moment from what does good policy look like.

• 18:56Speaker 01

  Are we starting at the beginning? Because we're here now, though. We can't start the policy.

• 19:00Tom Bilyeu?

  Being here now, I am not a repeal it overnight. This is the same reason, I'm like, if you told people, illegal immigrants or otherwise, you're going to get SNAP benefits. You can't just shut it off one day. You've got to say, all right, this is going to expire at this date. You've got 90 days, 120 days, whatever period of time, but a reasonable period of time for them to figure it out. So I don't support the just on-off switch. You told people you were going to do that thing. It's perfectly acceptable to change your policy, but there's There's a reason that laws usually give you some period of time to like, hey, this is coming to effect. It's going to go into effect in three tranches, whatever, so that people can adjust their behavior, adjust their lifestyle.

• 19:42Tom Bilyeu?

  So I would never say, hey, you've made all these promises, but just turn it off. That is not what I would do. But I think that there, we need to approach healthcare from the perspective of, uh, from the physics of how these ecosystems work. How do we drive costs down? And we've not done that. We've done the exact opposite. And this is the, the big problem with big government people is they do not understand. The government is going to drive costs up and make things worse always and forever. There's no exceptions, like period. Just that is the truth of it. And so you'll sometimes accept that because there's no free market incentive to pursue a thing that we decide we want to pursue. Going to the moon to beat Russia, right? So we just wanted to signal to Americans on a vibes perspective that we're better than our Cold War competitor.

• 20:27Tom Bilyeu?

  That's actually dope. That's super meaningful. That matters a lot. But as we're seeing now, the second that there was a private sector way to do this, SpaceX, then it became infinitely cheaper. So this is, I'm not saying that you don't ever jumpstart things with government dollars. The internet came out of DARPA. Love it. Amazing. But then you get the fuck out of the way. And so I'm just saying, the government is knowable. It will fuck everything up. Because it, it is not, um, subject to the forces of competition.

• 21:06Tom Bilyeu?

  The forces of competition and the selfish desire to get richer than your neighbor is the thing that gives us all of our lovely world that we see. Like thi- this is all the result of that. People being extremely selfish, wanting to get richer than their neighbor. And so people don't like that. I get it, but that's causing them to make really stupid decisions. And so I'm just like, oh my God, like we have to get to the physics of these situations. So when you get to the physics of healthcare, you have to open it up to the competition in the market. You've got to make it so that a health insurance company can go out of business. So that people go, yeah, that health, that insurance company sucks. I hate everything about what they're doing. This one's dope.

• 21:51Tom Bilyeu?

  You've got to get rid of all the regulatory capture that made it possible for Americans to pay the burden for drug discovery and the rest of the world gets everything super cheap like that is wild. So you've got to get rid of that kind of stuff. And at the same time, if we go as a country, hey, we're going to balance our budget. And the thing that we really care about is we want to make sure that nobody goes broke from a catastrophic illness. Okay. Like then let's look at that. Let's say the one thing that we don't care about is pre-existing conditions. But ooh buddy, are you gonna have to like deal with the low level stuff? So if you look at right now, this I should have pulled the link.

• 22:33Tom Bilyeu?

  But if you look right now, the example that I gave $600 without insurance, $1,300 with insurance is a real example that I'm using of a guy who recorded his phone call with the health insurance company. And he was like, hey, you guys sent me the bill for $600. I sent you my insurance and then you sent me a new bill, which is higher. And they said, yes, because if you have insurance, then you get the insurance cost. If you don't have insurance, then you get a discount. That is so maddening that I don't understand how people don't go, wait, hold on. First of all, you're going to pay some ungodly amount of money until you hit your deductible anyway. So all of those costs matter. The incentive that the insurance companies have is that they're going to,

• 23:15Tom Bilyeu?

  or the doctor, whatever that you're talking to, they have is that, well, I've got to make money somewhere, so I'm going to send this to your insurance company. Your insurance company is going to negotiate with me, but they're still going to pay a lot. And so they get a sense of like, okay, the procedure costs this much. Your insurance is only going to cover this, and so you're going to be out of pocket that much. If you haven't hit your deductible, then you're just going to ring up. I mean, it could be 15 grand, it could be more. So all of that stuff is terrible. And you've put people in a position where they have to have it. So it's like, you can't lock people legally into a system that is predatory on them, which is exactly what we're doing right now. So again, I'm not a pull the plug today, but I'm like, we're going to have to start talking about this.

• 23:55Tom Bilyeu?

  I can already feel that to get to my goal of a balanced budget, while making sure that the country has the things that they believe in, where I'm going to have to start talking about this stuff. So. There we go.

• 24:10Speaker 01

  I think it's like a realization, like in real time, you're like, yeah, we gotta figure this out.

• 24:14Tom Bilyeu?

  Because you start looking at all the things that we spend money on. And so one of the ones that we just spend an ungodly amount of money on that people just, they're completely blind to is we let people destroy their own health. And then we force young, healthy people, like you said, to pay into a system like social security where it's like, I am specifically making you, dear, young, healthy person, pay for the young and ill and the old and ill, and then just the old. So it's like, okay, that, that is god awful. That is god awful. But if as a nation, we're like, I don't want to see somebody go bankrupt on cancer.

• 24:59Tom Bilyeu?

  It feels too roll of the dicey, don't like that. And so, cool, now we're gonna put things in that are gonna cover for that. What exactly that will look like, I don't know off the top of my head. But it's like, there's no reason that you can't put systems in like that. And so that would be better. You still have the issue of cancer is almost certainly tied to environment for sure. And there might be so much luck of the draw there, genetics for sure. And there definitely is luck of the draw there. But it's also a third pillar is what you eat.

• 25:33Speaker 01

  If there's a, hypothetically speaking, budget is balance. There's this new health insurance that is proposed that is very much, we, there is a pool of resources in order to subsidize this health insurance cost. So right now, everybody who gets a paycheck, they have the social security gets taken out, Medicaid gets taken out, things like that.

• 25:55Tom Bilyeu?

  Yep.

• 25:56Speaker 01

  If that system is viable, are you okay with that? Or does it break when the individual is paying into a larger pool? I'm trying to see where the economics breaks specifically.

• 26:06Tom Bilyeu?

  If you make it a Ponzi scheme, you're gonna have Ponzi scheme problems. And so if, for instance, your actuarial math,

• 26:14Tom Bilyeu?

  Comes out to go, okay, we have to have at least 40% young and healthy people paying into this pot, otherwise we can't support it. Uh, well, then you need to have a mathematical table that says what you do when it becomes 39%, 38%, 20%, whatever, because you can't guarantee that you're always going to have 40% of young, healthy people paying into the system. So if you've got a plan for that, then yeah, I'm totally open. Remember, uh, here, here is how governments ought to work morally. Um, you ought to have a balanced budget and then the budget ought to be allocated to what people believe in. And so if people

• 26:59Tom Bilyeu?

  are like, like me, I'm going to bang the drum for innovation. Innovation has saved more people than anything ever. It's pulled more people out of poverty than anything ever. Uh, freedom is a prerequisite to innovation, but like, I've got my whole thing. I can walk you through all the like, why it works and all that. Um, but like, if I'm a lone voice, because I don't trust myself to be right in everything. I'm like, okay, well, I'm prepared to live in the world where the quote unquote dumb voter overrules me. Okay? Like, I get it. Now, it doesn't mean that I'm just going to stand there and take it. Like, if the dumb voters are doing things that I think are too crazy, you bunker up, you move, you whatever. But, um, I do believe that is the way things ought to be. Taking a short break, but there's more Impact Theory after. Stay tuned.

• 27:43Tom Bilyeu?

  You're probably paying two salespeople to do one salesperson's job. That's where today's sponsor, Pipe Drive, comes in. An intelligent AI-powered sales CRM loved by growing sales teams. Pipe Drive just launched meeting intelligence built right into the CRM. Before every call, it pulls deal history and past conversations into one brief. During the call, it records and takes notes. After it, it drafts your CRM updates to review and approve. So there's less admin and more selling. Switch to a CRM built by salespeople for salespeople and join the over 100,000 companies.

• 28:24Tom Bilyeu?

  Already using Pipe Drive. My link gets you an exclusive 30 days free instead of the usual 14 day trial. There's no credit card payment needed. Just head to pipedrive.com/impact to get started. Again, that's pipedrive.com/impact and you can be up and running in minutes. Thanks for staying tuned. Now let's get back to it.

• 28:50Speaker 01

  Let's jump into Scott Besen setting the record straight on the Argentinian currency swap.

• 28:55Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, speaking of like, we gotta play this out because you gotta see him like bite the guy.

• 29:01Speaker 02

  Question of costs and prices and affordability. How does a $20 billion bailout of Argentina help Americans? Do you know what a swap line is? It's currency swap, yes. Yes, but what is that? That's you're the Treasury Secretary. Yes, but why would you call it a bailout? That is how. In most bailouts.

• 29:22Tom Bilyeu?

  He should have let that hang because he had the guy dead to rights. And

• 29:30Tom Bilyeu?

  as an interviewer, if you're going to go on the attack, you better know your cause and effect. And I think I'm a terrible debater. So I will only like get spicy on stuff where I'm like, I can build this up from cause and effect. So if somebody gives me an argument that breaks my cause and effect, then I can be like, I know right where to slot that piece of information in. Cool. Understood. Thank you for updating my mental model. And if they can't break my cause and effect, well, then I just keep going. This leads to this, leads to this, leads to this. Point to the part in that sequence that is incorrect. And it becomes much easier. This guy went on the attack as a partisan hack, basically,

• 30:11Tom Bilyeu?

  and didn't have cause and effect, didn't even understand what he was trying to bite him on. And if Besen had just sat there and said, what is it?

• 30:22Tom Bilyeu?

  The guy would have been like, I don't fucking know, man. And so then he's gonna have to like double down on the, well, you're the Treasury Secretary. You're the one that we pay to understand this. But at least it would have been clear and Besen could have been like, look, this is part of the problem. If I were coaching him, I'd be like, this is where you go. This is part of the problem. You guys are fighting my agenda all the time, but the reality is you don't understand it. And because you don't understand it, you're gonna feel like you know what I should be doing. But the reality is you don't understand the cause and effect of the economy. And people that do not understand the cause and effect of the economy should be very careful trying to put forward economic policy. And so here's how it works.

• 31:03Tom Bilyeu?

  And then you just lay out as briefly as you can, what the cause and effect is, that this isn't a bailout, that anybody that's using that is either ignorant or they're being a partisan hack. And the way that these things work is they're actually a revenue generating opportunity. He goes on to explain it, so we'll, we'll let him go, but um.

• 31:22Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, messaging, you gotta win the messaging game. All right, let's hear it.

• 31:27Speaker 03

  Oops. The Treasury Secretary Besen joins us now to talk about this. So good to have you here in the studio.

• 31:32Speaker 04

  Hey, Rob, good to see you again.

• 31:34Speaker 03

  That was, that was, I thought, the best moment of the morning. I enjoyed watching it. The entire media, and I mean, the entire media, has been slamming you and the Democrat Party as well for this move that was made with Malay. They know Malay is a very close friend of the president's, they're allies. But it sounds like nobody actually knows exactly what you guys have just done. And I think everybody figured it out this morning.

• 31:53Speaker 04

  I think so, Rob. And look, we used the US balance sheet to bolster a great ally of the United States. I call it the piece through economic strength. And how much better to put up the credit and full faith, the United States government, make money and bolster an ally rather than end up with something like we've got with the Maduro regime, where we're having to target these drug shoots and take military action. The question was, how is this good for Americans?

• 32:28Tom Bilyeu?

  So, I mean, listen, all the vitriol, the back And forth, all that stuff really does make me sad because you just you're backing people into a corner unnecessarily. And nobody gets it more than me. I understand like even the way I'm talking right now doesn't have the bombast that it needs to have for us to retain viewers. I'm so aware of that. But um yeah, anyway, it makes me sad that that's where we're at. But so Besson is somebody that people um I think he says it in this or maybe the interview with uh what's her face Laura something. Where he's like, he was more understated than I'm about to be, but basically I fucking murdered it on Wall Street.

• 33:08Tom Bilyeu?

  I had a career there. Like I try to remind people when I'm teaching business, I try to remind people, yes, I make millions of dollars a year teaching people business.

• 33:17Tom Bilyeu?

  But I've made over a billion dollars, billions of dollars, running businesses. So it's like the thing that I'm teaching you how to do, I used to just do. There were no cameras. There was just I run businesses. It's what I do and they generate billions of dollars in revenue. So uh Besson is an economic gangster. Like he was on Wall Street. You either figure it out or you go broke. And he made himself, I think he's a multi billionaire. I don't know that for sure, but I'm pretty sure.

• 33:51Tom Bilyeu?

  He was part of the team that made a billion dollars in a single day, uh which is fucking wild.

• 33:59Tom Bilyeu?

  So it's like this is somebody, this is why I revere Ray Dalio so much, that people can talk a big game. But if they put their own money at risk and they walk away with like some big W's, they know what they're doing. The guy that we were watching, the MMT guy who couldn't explain MMT, uh he's not winning in the marketplace. That's a guy that knows the right people, gets cushy consulting jobs. Besson is an economic gladiator. He's in the ring going up against like governments and other economies and like like that. Do you know how crazy it is to risk your own money trying to break the back of the British pound?

• 34:41Tom Bilyeu?

  Because if you're wrong, you lose all the money that you were using to force them to capitulate.

• 34:49Tom Bilyeu?

  And so it's like, man, you've got some brass cojones. And if you win, it means you actually understood something. And this is a guy that won over and over and over and over and over. Now, you can say that Wall Street is immoral, fine, but you've got a guy that knows how to play that game. And so you've put him in a position where it's like, all right, you've like made this insane amount of money winning in economics. And now I'm going to put you in charge of the largest economy in the world. Let's go. So it's like, I still don't know if these guys are going to pull it off. But again, if people want to understand why I appear to be less like drum banging on these guys. I'm looking at them going, if anybody's got a shot to pull us out of the economic morass that we're in, it's them. I think that they're still making catastrophic errors.

• 35:35Tom Bilyeu?

  But at the same time, they've got a shot. They've got a shot. So I don't know that I love the risk that we took on Argentina. When I look at it from the way that they're billing it, which is basically, oh, we've made a bunch of money. Almost certainly a stupid idea to do from that perspective, which is not enough risk and reward. But when you put it in the context of, please remember, you're in Thucydides' trap with China. And they understand that. And so for Besen and Trump, this was a move to protect us from China. Like, we are in a battle with China, a Cold War battle, right now with China for South America.

• 36:15Tom Bilyeu?

  And so they saw an opportunity where it's like, okay, you have a very popular lead to remember something like 72% of all people under 34.

• 36:25Tom Bilyeu?

  That number is directionally correct, it's not literally correct.

• 36:29Tom Bilyeu?

  But 72-ish% of all people under 34 voted for Malay. So the youth of Argentina are 100% on his side. Like, they want what he's doing to work. And so he's very pro-America, he's certainly pro-capitalism. So, anyway, I get from that perspective why they did it. But.

• 36:51Speaker 01

  Let's jump into some, I don't even know what to call this type of news, but Elijah Schaefer, CEO of Riff TV, some of you might know him, is being sued for $5 million over his ex-post criticizing the FBI Director Kash Patel's girlfriend. This is gross lawfare. He's calling it.

• 37:09Tom Bilyeu?

  This is gross lawfare.

• 37:10Speaker 01

  Candace retweeted it, saying, "Apparently, when governments and people in powerful positions get caught lying, their only weapon is to sue people." It is absolutely pathetic and it's more. Excuse me, is more meant to scare us into silence? We will bankrupt you. These people should be treated with contempt.

• 37:24Tom Bilyeu?

  This, I gotta say, whatever you think about Candace, that tweet is bang on. This, you, you don't hate Lawfare enough. I will just tell you that right now.

• 37:35Speaker 01

  Yeah. Here, we'll play the beginning of this. This is him outlining the entirety of the lawsuit.

• 37:40Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, this is bad.

• 37:41Speaker 05

  concerning news that I was being sued for $5 million by Kash Patel's girlfriend Alexis Wilkins. And the reason why I might actually shock you. About a couple of months ago, I posted this photo on the public social media platform X. I posted it with no caption, no suggestions of any malintent or any slander, defamation, or criticisms of character. I did so attached to an X post shared by another account that I'm not connected to that talked about government agents being compromised. Now Alexis Wilkins is saying that I owe her $5 million for damages, the exact evaluation of my company, and if I cannot come up with that money, that I'm going to have to shut

• 38:25Speaker 05

  down my business, give up all of my digital assets, and my entire voice online in order to pay her back.

• 38:33Tom Bilyeu?

  This is crazy.

• 38:34Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 38:35Tom Bilyeu?

  That, like, okay, so, uh, obviously, being in the public eye, you get to the point where people say enough horrible shit about you, uh, that you go, all right, am I gonna pursue people or am I just gonna have some, uh, testicle fortitude? And, bro, if somebody posts a photo of you insinuating in a trolly manner that you're a honeypot or whatever, like, fucking deal with it. Like, oh, God. Like, I don't understand. Like, it is going to be used against you. You, when you do this kind of thing, then somebody looks for the opportunity to do it back to you. Letitia James, I'm looking at you. It's like...

• 39:16Tom Bilyeu?

  It's terrible when either side does it, but like, don't be a part of the problem. So, God, you'd have to do like even, in fact, dear Nintendo, what the actual fuck are you doing with your power world lawsuits? Like, that's wild. So if you, if they went after them for a trade dress problem, that I would kind of understand, uh, because they really do look exactly like fucking Pokemon. But they didn't go after them for that. They went after them for game mechanics. It's like, come on, don't be that guy. Uh, and right now, what's his face's girlfriend, Kash Patel's girlfriend is being that guy. I, I just, I can't respect it. I can't respect it. It's a terrible precedent.

• 39:58Speaker 01

  I think it's a bad look on Cash too. Cash's fall off has to be documented, man. He was the champion that we needed and yeah, we love him. He's gonna turn the FBI around. You're looking like an op, bro. Like you're, you're losing all credibility. We still didn't see the Epstein files and you paraded three basketball players thinking you done cracked the code on something and like, come on, man. This is not what we asked for. Now you're going after people on the right, like, it doesn't make sense. It doesn't make sense to me. I think people are being sensitive. Yeah, that's it.

• 40:24Tom Bilyeu?

  And like, Cash, unless you're cosigning this behavior from your woman.

• 40:32Speaker 01

  I feel like you have to be.

• 40:33Tom Bilyeu?

  It's a bad look. It's a bad look, man. That's, that's way out of pocket. That's way out of pocket.

• 40:38Speaker 01

  And like, I, uh, I don't know. I don't get it. I don't, I really just, I don't get it. Um, and again, if this was like, at least the, um, Emmanuel Macron thing, the, like, I'm a president of France. You can't be talking about my wife. Like, at least there's something there, but.

• 40:53Tom Bilyeu?

  No, no, that, that one is just as ridiculous. Now Candace at least is going hard in the paint. So if somebody's like, if she has invited a lot of pain and suffering into her life, this guy posted a trolly photo.

• 41:07Speaker 01

  That's what I'm saying. I think they're a little bit different.

• 41:09Tom Bilyeu?

  Amplitude comes up once again. So the amplitude of what Candace is doing is like, god damn. But even that, I would say, nah, like, should they be, I mean, listen, if, God, what would I do? If I were, if people were like, Tom Bilyeu is a woman and he's trans, uh, honestly, that would be funny. So, but like, let's say it really started gaining steam. Like, no, for real, like, for real, for real. Would I ever just whip it out, Drew? Would I? I probably wouldn't, but like admittedly, you know what I mean? Like, we can end this real fast. Like, there it is. It doesn't slap nearly loud enough. I will assure you of that.

• 41:53Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, I don't know, man. This is, all of this is dumb. Lawfare to me is dumb. But Candace, the amplitude of what Candace is about is dialed to like 46, so.

• 42:04Speaker 01

  Is this one of those things like this is just where we're at?

• 42:06Tom Bilyeu?

  This is where we're at, but no, people really need to be up in arms about this. People, people need to, uh, make it clear that that is a level of ridiculous that, and not by doing more lawfare, by the way, just by like culturally being like, this is a clown show. Uh, this is just absolutely stupid. You guys are feeding into a fire. All the things you complained about, you're becoming like, you're the, the, the villain that you swore that you were gonna stop. It's just dumb. So, yeah, somebody, somewhere has got to say like, okay, look, I have every right to pursue this person. I'm not going to because it's stupid and we need to look forward. Like for all Trump's locker up talk, at least in 2016, he didn't actually pursue it.

• 42:49Tom Bilyeu?

  Now he's pursuing it, so don't love, don't love. And for anybody saying that Candace doubled down, you are incorrect. Candace has quintupled down. Candace has orders of magnitude down. Like, when I watch her, I'm like, well, this is, I mean, what's that Michael Jackson meme where he's in Thriller with the popcorn? That's where I'm at with Candace and, uh, fucking Macron's, man. Like, god damn.

• 43:12Speaker 01

  Everybody's waiting for that.

• 43:13Tom Bilyeu?

  She is all the way in. I, I can see her doing like special events from fucking prison where she's just like, no, no, no. I still swear to God. She's like literally pulling her ovaries out and showing them to her. She's like, there's no way. She stuffed them up there. It's all fake. Like, I don't know that Candace will buy it.

• 43:30Speaker 01

  If she beats that case, she's gonna go live on the Eiffel Tower. Like, like she's, she, you have to take that victory lap.

• 43:35Tom Bilyeu?

  I will refer to her exclusively as the Teflon Don. Like, if she beats that, Candace can say whatever the fuck she wants.

• 43:42Speaker 01

  She's gonna go live in front of the Louvre, like, alright guys, alright.

• 43:46Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah.

• 43:46Speaker 01

  I did it.

• 43:47Tom Bilyeu?

  Coming to you live from Mccone's bedroom.

• 43:49Speaker 01

  Yeah, you gotta hit that victory lap.

• 43:51Tom Bilyeu?

  She is all the way in. Candace, like, literally, if I was like, looking at like, a screen of all the people that I could fuck with in the world, I'd be like, now you can remove Candace. Like, it doesn't matter. But Tom, she killed your dogs. Bro, I said, take her off. I'm not going after Candace. I don't know who you think I am.

• 44:09Speaker 01

  They're gonna make a John Wick 5 and this Candace, and people be like, never mind, it's cool, it's cool.

• 44:13Tom Bilyeu?

  She's Boobywaka, what was the guy's name in John Wick? She is the Boobywaka, alright? You don't fuck with the Boobywaka, I'm just telling you right now. No way.

• 44:23Speaker 01

  That's funny. Alright, and then, keeping assaults on free speech intact, um, South Korea's new president, I don't know enough to call him far left, because I feel like they just had a demographic crisis.

• 44:34Tom Bilyeu?

  But it says far left right there.

• 44:37Speaker 01

  Who is this? I can't even pronounce the news channel.

• 44:41Speaker 01

  Alright, uh, Lee Jae Myung tells his police force that hate speech and misinformation shared on social media, social media must be considered a crime that goes beyond the limits of freedom of expression. He says it must be severely punished as it's a threat to democracy. Uh, before we get into it, what do you still think about this trend that's happening all over the world, it seems like, of this push on? We need to police information?

• 45:04Tom Bilyeu?

  If you find yourself saying disinformation should be made illegal, that is, you're a categorical moron. You need to be immediately removed from office. I, I don't care who, Trump, my favorite, pick anybody that you think I like. If they're like, misinformation should be illegal. Done, disqualified, out, impeach. Uh, 25th Amendment, whatever the one is, that's like, they're unfit for service, like, a thousand percent, like, no, absolutely not. You are crushing, uh, dissenting voices. Like, that is the most draconian 1984 shit ever. That is somebody who just believes they're right. Like, the obvious question is, bro, have you legitimately never been wrong? No, I've been wrong before.

• 45:50Tom Bilyeu?

  Then why the fuck would you ever say that people shouldn't be allowed to disinform? When you're wrong, you are quote unquote disinforming the public. So, nobody is gonna be right all the time. Nobody should trust themselves. History is a never-ending litany of, we thought this, then we realized we're wrong. We thought this, then we realized we were wrong. We thought this, and then we realized we were wrong. Once you understand, we don't even understand quantum physics. We don't understand it. So, we don't understand the most fundamental building blocks of the universe. So, uh, what are we supposed to do? Like, people are not allowed to like, try to think through it. They're not allowed to say what they believe to be true, but ultimately be wrong. That, that is the dumbest shit ever.

• 46:30Tom Bilyeu?

  It, it is so crazy to me that people think that you can make progress as a society while saying, "I am the arbiter of what is true, and therefore, if you say something that I disagree with, you are incorrect and you've gotta be shut down." Like, did you people not live through COVID? Like, we, we were just wrong about everything. We were lied to about a whole bunch of shit. And, the takeaway should have been, oh yeah, the only way to get to the right answer is to let everybody say what they believe to be true, begin to parse it out. You're gonna have to sift through a lot of bullshit, but, like, things will rise to the top and over time, science is gonna show, these are the things that work, these are the things that don't, and you're gonna get flat-earthers on whatever the topic. And guess what flat-earthers are not going to do?

• 47:14Tom Bilyeu?

  They're not going to build the rockets that take us to Mars, so they can fuck off. And, the people that understand how space actually works, they're gonna be the people that build the rockets and build the things. Skills have utility. And so, the people that actually know something, and that something is meaningful, they're gonna win. The guy that can't explain modern monetary theory is not going to make money in the way that Scott Besson is going to make money, because he actually understands how economies work. And so, it's like, follow the people that have the skillset to do a thing in real life.

• 47:44Tom Bilyeu?

  And, once you like, hook onto that, oh, that's right, skills have utility. Skills that you do a thing, other people can't do. So, it's pretty easy to find the people that have the skills. Now, you may misidentify what the skill is. The skill may be, oh, they're really good at manipulating. They're really good at blackmail or whatever, and so they can get people to do what they wanna do. Cool, you have to figure out, what is the actual skill that that person is deploying? But, skills have utility.

• 48:07Speaker 01

  Yeah. Alright, let's jump into the statement, uh, to hear right from him. I'll say it again, in some parts of our society.

• 48:19Speaker 01

  Truly anachronistic discrimination and hatred based on race, origin, and national origin is rampant. As our society becomes increasingly polarized, these extreme expressions continue to exacerbate social unrest. In particular, hate speech directed at this specific target is being indiscriminately spread on social media platforms. And false or manipulated information is spreading. We can't tie this down any longer. This is a clear crime that goes beyond the limits of freedom of expression.

• 48:55Tom Bilyeu?

  You get what you vote for. So if this is what people want, then they're gonna, they're gonna run the experiment. We're gonna find out like if cracking down on it works, but look at what's going on in the UK. Terrible.

• 49:15Speaker 01

  We have to talk about this incoming AI bubble because there's been a lot of speculation. SoftBank just ditched all their Nvidia. Warren Buffett has liquidated all his stock, even selling one of his companies for a loss.

• 49:28Tom Bilyeu?

  Michael Burry's put a short on Nvidia.

• 49:31Speaker 01

  Yeah. Michael Burry thinks that the AI conglomerate is all overhyped. They're using capex expenditures a bit too loosely.

• 49:40Tom Bilyeu?

  Well, he called it fraud. Just straight up fraud. He said this is the, the biggest type of fraud. So he wasn't saying like it's unique to them, but he was like, this is the biggest type of fraud in modern history or yeah, anyway, that was the idea. May not be exactly the words, but that was the idea.

• 49:58Speaker 01

  And.

• 49:59Tom Bilyeu?

  Uh, because he says it misrepresents the amount of profit that they're actually making. And he gave amounts and it's a lot. Like if he, if his math is correct, it ends up overstating their profit dramatically. Uh, so this is where I go, yeah, accounting gets very complicated very fast. So I'll just say, okay, he's probably directionally correct, uh, but it certainly, it is common. So, um, fraud is more of a Michael Burry stance than a legal stance.

• 50:37Speaker 01

  It seems like it's cracking in all different directions. Let me jump into this tweet. Wells Fargo just called the top and nobody wants to hear it. The tech sector downgraded to neutral, not bearish, just neutral. Wall Street's politest way of screaming, get out while you can. And this was something we talked about before we started the valuation chasm. Tech stocks 46x earnings, the S and P 500 averages 29x. That's a 59% premium for a sector trading on future promises while sitting on a present day fragility. That does seem bold and I'm jumping over to the Sam Altman interview where he kind of had to justify his revenue, but what's your initial take so far before we play that?

• 51:18Tom Bilyeu?

  AI is a bubble, obviously.

• 51:22Speaker 01

  Wait, I was not expecting that. Hold on a second.

• 51:25Tom Bilyeu?

  But tech was a bubble in 2000. So it's like AI is gonna play out. It's gonna be the illest shit ever. I'm just saying you don't yet know how it's gonna shake out, who are gonna be the main players. So it's one of those where 46x to me, now, listen, I don't want to go up against Michael Burry in the open market. But the way that I'm reading this is that you have to understand what's happening now through the lens of liquidity. There's so much money flowing into the system that it's gotta go somewhere. So smart money knows you have to hide from inflation. You have to find a return. And the government is getting dicey. So there are fewer

• 52:09Tom Bilyeu?

  people that are just flooding into treasuries like there would historically. And so you've got people chasing like a return. And so they're gonna go into the stock market for sure. They're gonna go into the thing that they believe on a long timeline is gonna be a high performer. And they're probably a little too confident in themselves. But the, we detached from like fundamentals a long time ago. This is just about where can I be? And they all think they're gonna be smart enough to get out while the getting is still good. And so they go up, supply and demand tells you that Nvidia stock is a hot thing right now. So I'm gonna flood into Nvidia. I won't be stupid. I'll get out once I've gotten my winnings and you know, let the dumb money

• 52:52Tom Bilyeu?

  take the fall. And the bad news is for the top, top, top people, that's actually true. That is what they do. But I paid more attention to this in crypto wallets, but if something like crypto wallets, 5% of the crypto wallets do 90% of the gains. And so it's like 5% of the crypto Bro, it is, it's, this, this is how markets work. There really is people. Okay, listen, everybody.

• 53:16Tom Bilyeu?

  We're all the dumb money. We're the dumb people. It's us. It's us. So, uh, that's why I say, don't day trade. You're gonna lose. Now, there might be a small handful of you that are the smart money that are taking advantage of all the rest of us that are dumb money. Uh, but I am reminded that not my entire audience doesn't understand PvPV E. So let me explain. The market is a PvPV E game. PvP is player versus player. PvE is player versus environment. So think of it as the NPCs, the mobs, as they are

• 53:55Tom Bilyeu?

  often referred to. Uh, once you understand the stock market is gambling, but it's PvPV E gambling. So you're gambling against other players that are trying to beat you, trying to trick you, outperform you, pump so that you pour in so that they can get out. Um, they spin narratives up and Telegram groups and try to get like hype going like that's it. You're buying what they're selling and they're selling what they're buying. But understand you are actively going up against human beings that are trying to take your money. If you don't have that mental map of what investing is, you will be taken advantage

• 54:37Tom Bilyeu?

  of guaranteed. This is why I say just put your money in and walk away. Dollar cost average in to a highly diversified basket of goods and then walk away. Do not try to beat these people. The P V E side of this is that there's all kinds of things happening in the world, the economy. So there are environmental factors that you they're out of your control. Like you've got George Soros out there influencing NGOs and elections and Soros and Besen together, breaking the back of the British pound and like just all kinds of crazy shit. The yen carry trade unwinding for like global reasons, the US like loaning money to Argentina.

• 55:20Tom Bilyeu?

  And there's tons of people invested in Argentina. And so those people just got taken care of, but the people shorting it just got their asses handed to them. And so was that really moral? Like, right. That's the E part. So when you understand that this is a P V P V E game that is extremely complicated, that's when it's like, okay, just accept unless you're doing this all day, every day, you are the dumb money that everybody's trying to win against. Now, how does the dumb money win? They play a very long term game because ironically, if you play a long game and you're diversified, you actually do end up winning.

• 56:01Tom Bilyeu?

  You don't win like the insane amounts. It tends to rough out to about seven percent, six to seven percent over inflation. So it's like, cool. Great. Yay. But you've got to be completely unemotional. Yeah. If you think you're going to day trade your way, you're going to be in trouble.

• 56:20Speaker 01

  All right. I want to jump into this. This interview has been kind of circulating with

• 56:27Speaker 01

  Sam Altman was asked, how can a company with 13 billion in revenues make 1.4 trillion of spending commitments?

• 56:33Speaker 06

  Can the company with 13 billion in revenues make 1.4 trillion of spend commitments? You know, and, and you've heard the criticism, Sam.

• 56:43Speaker 07

  First of all, we're doing well more revenue than that. Second of all, Brad, if you want to sell your shares, I'll find you a buyer.

• 56:50Speaker 07

  I just.

• 56:51Tom Bilyeu?

  So seriously. Is that Mandela there at the bottom? Yeah. That's hilarious. I didn't watch the video, but I read a headline and somebody was like, this is giving me Enron vibes like two months before they collapsed, where they were just so cocky and so arrogant, thinking, ah, we'll be fine. And then PV, PVE, uh, the E comes in hard and poof, the company's gone overnight. So, um, whoo, I don't know what's happening with OpenAI. I don't want to pretend that I do. It is very weird that he was effectively asking for government guarantees, AKA bailout.

• 57:28Tom Bilyeu?

  He denies that that's what's happening, but I've also heard him say that at some point, I don't remember if he said OpenAI specifically, but that was the implication, really is too big to fail, that they're too important to the infrastructure of US, AI, that the government is basically de facto going to have to back them. This is why the state shouldn't get involved in capitalism. The state should be laying infrastructure that all of the AI companies can use. And the ones that do that well survive and the ones that don't go out of business, we need to get away from this idea of things are too big to fail. We, yeah, anyway, could do a whole tirade on keep the government out of it.

• 58:06Tom Bilyeu?

  But that is admittedly, that disdain is somebody who is both getting a little too cocky and I'm sure has just had to answer this question over and over and over, and he's getting tired. I think Sam Altman is in battles behind the scenes that none of us know about, that it is constant and never ending. His own family was suing him at one point. So it's like, I'm sure this guy is just under siege at all times from international companies, companies in the US. He's going up against Elon all the time. You've got Meta poaching his best employees. Like, that is a level, there's a reason I don't own a public company, by the way.

• 58:47Tom Bilyeu?

  This would be one of them. And so I get it. Like, it doesn't look fun. I don't know why people do that shit. Yes, you can make a lot of money, but goddamn, you are gonna, like, you deal with stress, just nonsense. Stop violence and it's already stressful enough being an entrepreneur. I don't need that next layer.

• 59:03Speaker 01

  You don't need that to add to that.

• 59:04Tom Bilyeu?

  So anyway, uh, what will ultimately come of all of this? I don't know. I will say Sam Altman strikes me as a survivor. But um, even more than I read into what he's saying, I read into the way that he's saying it. Now admittedly, it's a pretty good clapback because he's right. As of right now, today, he would have no trouble selling whatever shares.

• 59:26Speaker 01

  He just moved the window up to my side.

• 59:27Tom Bilyeu?

  Wants to get rid of. So, and Brad isn't going to get rid of his shares. Let's just start with that.

• 59:32Speaker 01

  That, I mean, I, I definitely get the pressure that entrepreneurs uh, come under. But we are putting the entire US economy on this AI promise, like literally deficit, the future of the world. The meaningless crisis, all these things are happening. It's kind of like we're trying to balance a house on the pinnacle of a mountain.

• 59:51Tom Bilyeu?

  Even more.

• 59:53Speaker 01

  Like, so I understand OpenAI might have some cracks, but hopefully Claude and Meta and all these other people can kind of take their reins. But even if it's a 1% possibility, if this AI thing comes crashing down, are we then back to square one? Is it at that point? Yeah, the US hits a rap, we're going to hit 130 in no time. So is there?

• 1:00:11Tom Bilyeu?

  That's not how the, look, that could put a lot of financial stress and that could be one of those things where uh, it blows up. And now both, because there are two economies right now. There are the have assets and the have nots. And the have assets are doing really well, right? So 25 has been very good to me. I've made a lot of money.

• 1:00:33Tom Bilyeu?

  And the have assets who are feeling great right now are all like, uh, we're driving the economy. And the have nots are like, I can't afford groceries. And so this sucks and I'm going to vote in a socialist. So that discrepancy will be wildly exacerbated if the AI bubble were to burst right now. Because then the have assets are largely going to be battered. And now you're going to be in a 2000.com bubble or a 2008 uh, recession type thing. Now, if the everything bubble blows up and everything bursts.

• 1:01:14Tom Bilyeu?

  Woo, that that one is a multi-year.

• 1:01:18Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:01:20Tom Bilyeu?

  Certainly Great Recession equivalent. Does it become an actual depression? It's got a shot because there could be a contagion effect. If the contagion effect takes down the banks, which are functionally insolvent,

• 1:01:36Tom Bilyeu?

  then you're it would be very, very bad. So am I expecting that? The timeline, listen, I am admittedly building my arc now. And I feel like a junior carpenter who's like really just trying to build his first thing.

• 1:01:52Tom Bilyeu?

  But I am trying to build my arc right now, trying to make sure that I have the diversified portfolio of uncorrelated assets, make sure that I come with great humility and understand that even if I'm directionally correct, getting the timing wrong is brutal. So being very careful about that, making sure that I can survive any economic condition, no matter what comes. But my real like the alarm bell that I'm trying to sound is like a seven to 10 year time horizon. I'm not on a like, oh, like even if we get a deflation of the bubble, I don't think we get like the insane reset in like the next year. Now, listen, you want to talk about one where I'm like, boy, would I feel stupid if I wasn't moving now because it certainly could happen in

• 1:02:37Tom Bilyeu?

  the next year. But I just feel like your bigger concern is the left and the right start killing each other at an accelerating rate. And that causes revolution. That's the one that for real, for real, like keeps me up at night.

• 1:02:52Speaker 01

  So it's not even necessarily the ramifications of the bubble. It's the reaction to the bubble with the economic and the policy.

• 1:02:58Tom Bilyeu?

  What almost always takes a country down, it's not a depression. It's wealth inequality. And so if we have a depression, it'll be brutal, but it's not people getting murdered in the streets.

• 1:03:13Tom Bilyeu?

  The wealth inequality running away is murder. So that's where it's like, okay, we want to look at historical things. So looking back, depression, very bad, very bad. And ups the odds of war, probably a lot because now it's like. Trump, listen, you want to get out of this? All you gotta do piss off China. Make a make a move. Do something like start saying some shit about Taiwan. And then we can spin up the military machinery. We get everybody all patriotic. We fucking tax everybody, not just the rich. Tax everybody. And yeah, we get everybody super comfortable with that.

• 1:03:56Tom Bilyeu?

  We get people jobs, building the war machine and we do our thing. I'm not saying that's what's gonna happen. I'm saying the odds of that increase. So that is a scenario that I hate. The other scenario is we keep spending money as if printing money doesn't reverse Robin Hood. Everybody and the wealth inequality gets intolerable. And there's like, are you guys paying attention to the ice stuff? Remember, ice is an economic problem. Ice is just economics. So it isn't. In fact, let me lay that out.

• 1:04:36Tom Bilyeu?

  The anti immigrant sentiment is rising because you have a shrinking pie. It is actually shrinking because that pie is actually shrinking. You are fighting over finite resources and it's a populist moment. So the left and the right hate each other, which is all born of economics anyway. Everybody's forced into these camps. So now you've got two sides fighting over a shrinking pie and they each want their portion. We're in a super weird moment where whatever one side does, the other side has to be the exact opposite. So right now, because Trump's in power, whatever Trump does, the left becomes the exact opposite. So if Trump says deport, well, we gotta be a thousand percent opposed to that.

• 1:05:16Tom Bilyeu?

  And so these are the things like when people say like, how would you hear this question all the time? How would the civil war actually play out? It's playing out. You're watching it right now. It's escalating. So you're seeing moms being like lookouts for places that they think ICE is gonna be. You see people throwing rocks off overpasses at cop cars. You see ICE officers being Shot at. So this, this is how it plays out. So you've got a guy with authoritarian leanings, who anytime a blue state says, you can't come here. He's like, well, somebody needs my help. And he's going to send him in because you don't get to tell him what to do.

• 1:05:59Tom Bilyeu?

  And then that gives them the exact excuse that they want to push back. So

• 1:06:05Tom Bilyeu?

  it becomes these little incursions. And so those will just continue to escalate.

• 1:06:09Speaker 01

  AI generated country song is topping a billboard chart. And this is on the backs where last week, I think an R and B song that was AI generation generated also made the chart.

• 1:06:19Tom Bilyeu?

  You gotta play this song. So first of all,

• 1:06:20Speaker 01

  I don't want to get copyrighted. So

• 1:06:22Tom Bilyeu?

  Again, really?

• 1:06:23Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:06:23Tom Bilyeu?

  For an AI song?

• 1:06:23Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:06:25Tom Bilyeu?

  Interesting.

• 1:06:25Speaker 01

  Somebody, oh, somebody owns it.

• 1:06:26Tom Bilyeu?

  I didn't think you could copyright an AI song. Hmm. Okay. I kind of dig that, to be honest. Alright, so um, it's really good.

• 1:06:38Tom Bilyeu?

  Like, I really like it.

• 1:06:40Speaker 01

  Is it going in the rotation?

• 1:06:41Tom Bilyeu?

  It's already in the rotation. I've already listened to it today. So yes, it is absolutely fantastic. So I really am saddened by people that are like, I'm gonna fight against this because all through human history, every time we fought against the technology, it worked. Oh, wait a second. No, it didn't. Not once, ever. So I get the meaning in crisis. You need to have a solution for that. And I guess part of, part of why I'm so embracing it is I have all the copium in the world in the form of, I know what I'm gonna do in an AI world where AI is better than me at everything. And as long as it doesn't kill me, I've still got a strategy. Now, if it kills or enslaves me, I'm gonna be like, whoopsies.

• 1:07:25Tom Bilyeu?

  But yeah, right now, so it's gonna happen. It's amazing. Use it to your advantage. Go write the song you've always wanted to write. Create the thing you've always wanted to create. There's gonna be a, call it five-year-ish window where you just get to make things. And you get to make it, and it's all cheaper, and you're gonna be able to do things you just weren't previously able to do.

• 1:07:51Tom Bilyeu?

  Seven to 10 years, that one's going to be a little harder. That's you're going to be like, huh, I don't have a job.

• 1:08:00Tom Bilyeu?

  I don't need a job because I'm being taken care of, but I don't like the way that feels. And all the really cool things that Tom is talking about, we're still not a Kartosh of type two civilization yet. So this kind of sucks. And there will be a good 10 ish years of that, which are going to be unfun.

• 1:08:20Tom Bilyeu?

  There's no way around it. Yeah. All right, everybody, that's it for today. We will see you on Friday and until then, my friends, be legendary. Take care, peace. Let's talk about a pattern that is guaranteed to be killing your progress. You know what you need to do. You need consistent nutrition. We all do. You need vitamins, probiotics, greens. We all know that we should be doing more of it. When your morning gets chaotic, you skip it. When you travel, you skip it. When your routine breaks, everything tends to break and that inconsistency compounds against you every single day. AG1 is designed to solve the execution problem. One scoop, eight ounces of water and you're done. You're getting 75 plus ingredients, vitamins and minerals, pre and probiotics, nutrient dense, superfoods,

• 1:09:04Tom Bilyeu?

  everything that used to require six, seven different supplements and perfect planning now happens in one drink that takes about 30 seconds to make. Right now, AG1 is giving you $87 worth of free gifts with your first subscription. You get a welcome kit, travel packs, vitamin D3 plus K2 and flavor samples. Click the link in the show notes or visit drinkag1.com/impact to claim this offer.

• 1:09:31Speaker 08

  You get another IRS letter and your stomach drops. Your tax debt keeps growing. You fear wage garnishments or your bank accounts being levied. Interest is growing daily. You've heard the tax relief commercials, but when your financial future is at stake, experience matters. Delta Tax Group's team of experts have helped over 25,000 people resolve their tax issues over the last 17 years. Their tax professionals will help you understand your options with a free case analysis. Free consultation. Don't figure it out alone. If the IRS is threatening to garnish your paycheck, levy your bank account, or put a lien on your home, you need to call Delta Tax Group now. They'll help you today with unfilled tax returns or tax debt. Don't wait for the IRS letter.

• 1:10:15Speaker 08

  Stop the nightmare. And get your peace of mind back. Call Delta Tax Group now at 800-611-7199. That's 800-611-7199. 800-611-7199. Or visit delta tax group dot com.