A Beheading In Belfast, A Guilty Verdict In Texas, And More Bombs Over Iran | The Tom Bilyeu Show Live

What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here: If you want my help... STARTING a business:join me here at ZERO TO FOUNDER https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show: https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show SCALING a business:see if you qualify here. https://tombilyeu.com/call: https://tombilyeu.com/call Get my battle-tested strategies and insights delivered weekly to your inbox:sign up here. https://tombilyeu.com/: https://tombilyeu.com/ ********************************************************************** If you're serious about leveling up your life, I urge you to check out my new podcast,Tom Bilyeu’s Mindset Playbook https://open.spotify.com/show/47VE90Cittmo6TGGFqg2xf —a goldmine of my most impactful episodes on mindset, business, and health. Trust me, your future self will thank you. ********************************************************************** FOLLOW TOM: Instagram:https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok:https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter:https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu Ketone IQ: Visit https://ketone.com/IMPACT for 30% OFF your subscription order Quince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpod Plaud: Get 10% off with code IMPACT at https://plaud.ai/impact Whatnot:Download the Whatnot app today and get free shipping on your first order. AT&T Business: Switch to AT&T Business at business.att.com http://business.att.com Shopify: Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial period at https://shopify.com/impact Truemed: Check your eligibility and start saving at https://truemed.com/impact Incogni: Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code IMPACT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/impact Pique: 20% off at https://piquelife.com/impact Welcome to another thought-provoking episode of Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu! In this live show, Tom tackles some of the most pressing—and polarizing—issues making headlines around the world. From escalating U. S.-Iran tensions and violent unrest in Belfast, to the complexities of immigration debates and the economic motivations underlying government policies, nothing is off limits. Tom dives deep into high-profile criminal cases stirring emotions and sparking conversations about race and culture, including the Karmelo Anthony Austin Metcalfe case. The panel confronts the challenges of having rational discourse in an environment driven by media sound bites and online outrage, highlighting the need for nuanced, fact-based conversations about cause and effect. We’ll also explore Argentina’s shocking economic turnaround, California's controversial voting systems, and the future of anti-aging drugs that could redefine what it means to grow old. Throughout, Tom pushes for solutions—always emphasizing cause-and-effect logic, the dangers of populist narratives, and the importance of keeping our debates grounded in data rather than emotion. Strap in for an unfiltered, challenging discussion that aims to make sense of our rapidly changing world—and give you the mindset and tools to thrive in it. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Tom Bilyeu?

  Let's talk about the moment your side hustle becomes a real business. Now, I see way too many founders stay stuck running their business like it's a hobby, and then they wonder why nothing ever feels real. It doesn't feel real because it's not. I've helped thousands of entrepreneurs build real businesses through Impact Theory University, and the first step in the path to building a legit business is registering it. And Taylor Brands will help you do just that in a few clicks. An LLC, a limited liability company, is an official business structure. It's inexpensive to form and very simple to maintain. It's how you open a business bank account. It's how customers know they're dealing with a real company. And Taylor Brands doesn't stop at the filing.

• 0:45Tom Bilyeu?

  Their dashboard tracks what comes next based on what your business actually needs. So EIN number, registered agent, licenses and permits, bookkeeping, business banking. I tell every founder the same thing. Just make it official. Click the link in the show notes to check out Taylor Brands and get started on your business today. This is a paid advertisement. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to another Tom Gilli Show Live. We have got a hot and spicy one for you today, much to my dismay. But Iran shot down a US helicopter. They said they didn't do it on purpose, but that was not taken well by Trump. So that prompted a series of US retaliatory strikes on Iran. And I think anybody saying that we're in the middle of a ceasefire right now is not paying

• 1:30Tom Bilyeu?

  close enough attention. So we're going to see just how far that escalates. Carmelo Anthony was convicted of murder and sentenced to 35 years, and tensions erupted outside the court. Many are focusing on the race aspect of this. We're going to dive into that. A Sudanese immigrant in Belfast, Ireland, did something absolutely horrific. He pinned down a man, blinded both eyes with a knife, and then hacked at the man several times, prompting anti-immigration riots in Belfast. The California voting graphs continue to look just absolutely crazy. And I'll say, if nobody else is calling for audits, I will. I certainly want to see, one, if we're going to believe in what we see, we're going to need to...

• 2:14Tom Bilyeu?

  Have the government go in and do an audit and I've got a take on this that I think is very different than what most people are saying. So we will cover that. Argentina has managed to deliver a budget surplus, making them one of only five countries to do so. Absolutely incredible turnaround there under Millet and just capitalistic principles. So I love to see it. I love to see a country that struggled for that long, get back on its feet. We'll of course be diving into the economic realities there. Speaking of economic realities, HUD plans to block immigrants from getting federal dollars for home purchases. That one's somehow going to be controversial, but boy, well, I'd be interested to see how. And anti-aging just took a huge step forward as a new drug has come online that addresses epigenetic

• 2:58Tom Bilyeu?

  restoration. If this ends up being real and we are, we're talking about human dosing at this point. So this is not a super hypothetical thing. This is obviously something that we're seeing play out in terms of delivering real results. This could be GLP-1 big. So I'm very excited to see how that goes. All right. Welcome, everybody. I am certainly expecting this one to be something that triggers a lot of emotional response today. We have two big topics. One, just even setting aside what's going on in Iran, you've got what's happening in Belfast, which is putting his finger on what I think is going to be the central debate of the next 10 years, which is immigration. I understand that this is

• 3:41Tom Bilyeu?

  a very touchy topic. I get those private text messages from people letting me know they feel some type of way about this whole topic, but this isn't one that's going to go away. There is no hiding from this. We are all going to have to be able to have a rational, direct conversation about what's going on, about how we address it in a way where people can state the values and the governmental policies that they want to see put in place and why. And remember, as with all things weird, there is an economic cause underlying all of this, but we'll get to that in a second. Let's just start with what happened. So late on Monday night around 10:30 PM, a man in his 40s was walking through North Belfast when another man attacked

• 4:24Tom Bilyeu?

  With a kitchen knife. Now, there's some like discrepancies about whether this guy was actually helping migrants move into housing or not. I've heard some reports that he was actually a special needs person. Those things are unclear at this point. I've not seen enough consistent reporting on that to put a lot of faith in that. But know that there may be some connection as to how these two men cross paths. A bystander ended up catching it on video within hours. It was everywhere. There's actually some journalists saying that they shouldn't have allowed the video to go everywhere. If you want to see me become emotionally unhinged, start talking about shit like that. Start talking about the need to repress true information. That's absolute madness, and I hope that you guys don't tolerate that in any way, shape or form.

• 5:08Tom Bilyeu?

  But nonetheless, it did get out and you see the bloodied victim pinned to the ground, being stabbed over and over. Some civilians rushed in and tried to drag the attacker off of him before the police could arrive. The victim somehow miraculously survived the horrific attack. He's now in stable condition. But reports indicate that one eye was completely gouged out, that the other was blinded again, just by being stabbed in the eye with the knife. He was left, obviously, with serious injuries, but he's got him across his face, his back, his neck. Pretty horrifying. Was pretty shocked to hear that the guy survived. Many people were calling it an attempted beheading,

• 5:48Tom Bilyeu?

  which struck me as a unnecessarily vague, first of all, and then inflammatory way to describe it. But nonetheless, the guy was left with extremely serious injuries. Police have now charged a 30-year-old Sudanese man with attempted murder, possession of a bladed weapon, and making threats to kill. He's going to appear in court today. He may have already given the time difference. So we'll follow up and see what we can find on that. According to PSNI Chief Constable John Boucher, the suspect was an asylum seeker, granted leave to remain in the UK back in 2023, having traveled from Sudan to Paris, then Dublin, then into Belfast by bus. Reclaimed asylum in February of that year. He wasn't on any security.

• 6:34Tom Bilyeu?

  Database watch list or anything. Apparently he wasn't known to the police. Investigators say that there's no signs. This is terror related. But honestly, none of that matters at the level of the people on the streets. And so Tuesday night, Belfast just absolutely erupted. There were tons of calls for marches. For people to just let the political classes are calling it know how they feel, which is certainly coded language for riot and burn things. Mass crowds did exactly that. They torched the bus. They set cars ablaze, hurled petrol bombs, lit homes on fire with rioters specifically targeting the houses of either minorities or immigrants. Families were fleeing. The violence spread to surrounding towns with smaller flare ups

• 7:19Tom Bilyeu?

  all across England, Wales and Scotland. Kier Starmer has called the knife attack horrific. But he's also said that the response for people going out in the streets is just absolutely unacceptable. And so the big question there is going to be, what do you do when you believe that the political class is no longer listening to you? I think the moment you start burning the city down, obviously each and every one of those crimes needs to be prosecuted. You cannot let lawlessness ride, no matter how just it may be. But all of this brings to the forefront that there is a real disconnect between the way that people are feeling at the street level and the way that the political class are pursuing this.

• 8:03Tom Bilyeu?

  So when you hear the newscasters talking, did we, I think I did pull the, the woman on the news segment saying basically they never should have let the video go. Just to give a sense of the disconnect here.

• 8:17Speaker 01

  I mean, I welcome the minister saying that politicians need to be careful because all I hear from the government benches is dog whistles constantly where they scapegoat migrants for their own failures. And they're doing it more and more and more. And it is clear pathway that this government has chosen to go down. And I, you know, that for me, I think, you know, tonight, what those scenes we're seeing, we have to ask ourselves as a society, how this is happening. And we have to ask all, all of us on an individual basis need to ask how we are either contributing to this or fixing it. Yeah, I think the argument.

• 8:47Tom Bilyeu?

  So pause it for a second. So part of the problem and part of what I hope that quote unquote, new media like we can do on the show is really just get under the soundbite and get down to saying something specific. She's saying a whole lot of vague things there. People are just going to fill in what they want to believe. That she's saying rather than, okay, as a nation, we have to go, are we bringing in immigrants as a form of compassion? Are we bringing immigrants as a form of economic relief? Are we struggling financially and so we're trying to import cheap labor? Is that why even when a government is conservative and they come in literally on, we're going to reduce immigration? And then in several countries, they've ended up increasing immigration.

• 9:31Tom Bilyeu?

  That to me points directly at you have an economic problem that they get into office and realize, oh, I have to keep prices low because we've been inflating the currency to hell and back. And so the only way for us to keep the prices low is to have immigrant labor that's low. We're also in a lot of countries, take Japan, for instance, dealing with low birth rates. So if we start having the conversation at that actual cause and effect level, then we can begin to lay things out. Okay, cool. There's a sequence of cause and effect. We as a nation have to decide and be able to state in a very clear and sensible way what our value system is. And then we've got to be able to draft it up into policy that people can read. It's very simple and it's understandable. And then we all say, this is what we're trying to do.

• 10:15Tom Bilyeu?

  And by the way, you just have to agree on where you're trying to get to. So where are we trying to get in a way that we can articulate? And if where we're trying to get is, we want to make sure that we're keeping prices low and that's our primary concern. Now we can at least have the debate and people can say, no, that's not what we should be doing. What we should be doing is conserving our heritage. What we should be doing is making sure that Ireland stays white. At least fucking say it out loud. Like just say the thing and then people can go, that's so horrendous. I'm not interested in that at all. Or yeah, it sounds fucking gross, but it's what we're here for. We've got a longstanding culture and tradition and we're going to protect it. Or no, this is about whatever, insert the thing.

• 11:00Tom Bilyeu?

  But until we have a conversation that's actually at the level of something that you can state in a single sentence of 35 words or less, this is what I'm trying to accomplish. Then there's nowhere for you to hide. You just have to stand 10 toes down on whatever the thing is that you're trying to fight for. And then we can have that argument, decide where we're actually trying to go. You can elect politicians based on whether they're going to move towards the thing that you believe in or not. And we're having the real conversation instead of somebody trying to throw around comments like, all I hear is dog whistles. What do you mean by that? So I assume she's trying to get at this is a race thing. People are just racist.

• 11:40Tom Bilyeu?

  It's that that is not going to be a high functioning way to approach this argument anymore, because there are going to be real consequences. We'll get to some of that more when we talk about HUD a little bit later. We're here in the US. We're realizing that not only during the Biden administration, do we let in a whole lot of people with the open borders, but we were also giving them access to federal tax dollars to backstop their loans for housing, which of course is going to drive housing costs up. And so it doesn't matter what their nationality is. It doesn't matter what the color of their skin is. There's just an economic knock on effect. And so that that's going to be what not just we're charged with here on this show, but with

• 12:24Tom Bilyeu?

  everybody that has a long form show is to really start breaking this stuff down. And I would just tell you, the only way forward is to get people out of their emotions. Humans reason emotionally. So just everything about their impulse is going to take them to have a big emotional reaction, to display the emotion, for people to respond to which person talking, what emotion they align with, rather than saying, we live in a deterministic universe based on cause and effect. And if we're importing a bunch of immigrants, that is going to have

• 12:58Tom Bilyeu?

  economic consequences. It will lower costs. It will increase pressure on things like housing. If there is a culture collision, then we're going to see increased tensions, which will lead to increased violence. Like, all of these things can be placed very simply in terms of what the problem set is that we can navigate through it. Japan, for me, becomes the most interesting way to look at all of this, because even the like ultra conservative prime minister that just came in. Has only reduced their immigration by like 10% or something. I mean, it's really, really minor because I think she's stuck in that they have an aging population and they don't have an economic solution for that.

• 13:40Tom Bilyeu?

  And so now you get into a thing where you have to face like, well, we both want to protect what Japanese culture means, but we have a declining population and we're now having economic problems. They're getting inflation for the first time. There's a whole host of knock on effects. So that until we start having the debate at those levels and we stop having the debate at the emotional level of, hey racist, shut up, we're not going to make any progress whatsoever. We're hitting pause for a moment, but there's plenty more ahead, so don't go anywhere. There's a reason Quince sells cashmere for $60 and it isn't the cashmere. It's real 100% Mongolian cashmere.

• 14:23Tom Bilyeu?

  It's the same stuff luxury labels charge a fortune for. Quince just works directly with ethical factories and cuts out the middleman. So there's no need for a markup and no logo tax. The $60 goes to the actual sweater, not the fancy name on the tag. That's why everything they make runs 50 to 80% less. And it's not just the cashmere. I ordered a few things myself, their fleece joggers, a couple of their tees, which I wear obsessively. First thing I noticed was the quality. Soft, well-made, built to hold up. They make down jackets and wool outerwear now too. So upgrade your stuff to things you'll actually wear. Find your next fall favorites at Quince.

• 15:06Tom Bilyeu?

  Download the Quince app for app exclusive offers or go to quince.com. Get free shipping on your order and 365 day returns now available in Canada and the UK too. And when Quince asks where you heard about them, let them know it was Impact Theory. It's the best way to support the show.

• 15:25Tom Bilyeu?

  Thanks for sticking around. Let's get right back into the action.

• 15:28Speaker 02

  I just want to set a disclaimer at the show. I feel like we can all opt out of the race war that they're trying to force us into right now with these headlines. But it does seem that we like to highlight certain things and it causes a substantial response. And this is-

• 15:42Tom Bilyeu?

  When we say "we" like to highlight, do you mean this show or society?

• 15:46Speaker 02

  I'm gonna say media in general, because I feel like this beheading is going to lead to protest. The protest is gonna go across spans, across countries, from Ireland to England. In Glasgow, there's a bunch of dudes in all black walking around. There's people getting attacked. And it's, it's just like this one domino can lead to all these other like second order consequences. And now because of this one domino, we're now talking about immigration in a different way. Whereas if I was to take a step back and say, okay, if we could just say, it's like the 80/20 rule. Like 20% of the immigrants is causing 80% of the outrage.

• 16:25Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, might even be less.

• 16:26Speaker 02

  You know what I mean?

• 16:26Tom Bilyeu?

  Sure.

• 16:27Speaker 02

  So is it right for us to have the conversation of because of this attack, we need to talk about immigration as a whole? Or do you think immigration as a whole needs to be talked about? And this is just another catalyst to accelerate that conversation that keeps getting pushed back?

• 16:42Tom Bilyeu?

  It's that. So we should have been having the conversation about immigration a very, very, very, very long time ago.

• 16:48Speaker 02

  Got you.

• 16:49Tom Bilyeu?

  And as the globalist notion, like if I can strip away all of the like howling wolves and dark clouds and I'm being manipulated by an evil cabal, strip that away. There's just an idea that has grown, that is really quite beautiful at its core, which is, hey, as a civilization, we of humanity realize that these geographical borders are largely arbitrary. We realize that the, like-

• 17:23Tom Bilyeu?

  Uh, the, the phenotypic uh way that our genes express themselves in different amounts of melanin are just completely superficial and the absurdity of judging each other based on phenotype is crazy. And that to me, that argument is so beautiful and it resonates with me so hard. I love that. And then though you are hit with the reality of but culture is why humans have achieved what they've achieved. Meaning, we have an evolutionary strategy that says you're not going to have to reinvent yourself every generation and

• 18:05Tom Bilyeu?

  you're not just going to learn from mom and or dad like every other species where it's like, we're going to pre-program a set of behaviors in you. This, this is quite literally the evolutionary uh bet that every species has made but us. Every species but us, I mean, there are some minor exceptions in like chimpanzees and things like that, but they're on our line. So you get why they would be on that spectrum as well. But every species basically just chooses, I'm going to give you a bunch of instinctual drives and then your parents might model something for you. And so you will look 100,000 years from now, from a behavior pattern, exactly the same as your ancestors. So turtle's

• 18:49Tom Bilyeu?

  going to turtle, shark's going to shark. Like, it just doesn't change. And humans, on the other hand, use culture. And so it's this incredible thing that allows us to go, I'm going to teach you over, you know, call it the 35 years back when that was the average lifespan, over the 35 years of your life, I'm going to teach you about everything that came before you, within reason, within like your specialty and stuff like that. But now the quote being, you're going to stand on the shoulders of giants. And so we've got this cultural layer and it is the reason that we become the dominant species and our genetic ability to adapt. But like you put those together, it's this incredible cocktail.

• 19:31Tom Bilyeu?

  But when we have the conversation, we get stuck at one of the things that is ingrained in us in terms of um. The, we have an instinctual push towards it, which is what I call school of fish. We want to group up with people that are like us. Now, there are a whole lot of ways that we can draw those circles. And so that circle could be men, circle could be women, that circle could be black, a circle could be white, that circle could be Nigerian, could be African American. Like, there's a gazillion ways that you can draw it, can be humanity, Americans, whatever. Like, you can draw all these weird different circles. Religion is the most fascinating of the circles, because it will show you how you can have people that look nothing alike, didn't grow up in the same country.

• 20:16Tom Bilyeu?

  All of a sudden, we're both Catholic. And that one shows that, okay, the human mind has this just absolutely desperate desire to categorize. I need to know, are you like me, are you not? Are you friend, are you foe? Are you fuckable or not? Can, like, I mate with you? Like, all of these things, we're constantly trying to, like, make sure I understand what box and what context you belong in. Now, if you understand, culture is like the most powerful transmission layer that we have, then you understand, oh, culture's the thing that people will fight and die for. Then it's like, okay, well, then we need to be very careful about collisions of cultures. So, this cool idea that Tom likes of like, hey, borders can finally disappear.

• 20:59Tom Bilyeu?

  We've got airplanes, we can trade across borders, we can marry across borders, we can find people that we love that don't look anything like us, but they share this value set. Yeah, it's amazing. But at the same time, just like states get to run different economic experience, uh, experiments, they get to, um, draw people to their state using different incentives. And so we get to experiment in 50 different ways with what's the best way to run a government. And then, if the federal government is wise, it looks at all of those different experiments and it takes the ones that are gonna work at a national level. But it's like, cool, I'm glad that you guys are competing and doing different things. Okay, so now, if we take that on and we go, okay,

• 21:42Tom Bilyeu?

  people are looking as, from a, a nation state, from a subculture perspective, it's a bunch of people running a bunch of different tests. Of what's the best way for where we live for the difficulties that we face? What are the best ideas that we can pass via the cultural layer? Onto our kids such that they will thrive? And what we're seeing now is you can't just mix and match those really rapidly. It doesn't work because people defend their culture. And I think that's the part that people are missing. If you do it at a rate where they assimilate, you can get away with it. But America is like, we've been showing people for four hundred ish years.

• 22:27Tom Bilyeu?

  What it looks like, you get a wave of white as the day is long Irish immigrants and they're fucking rejected. Even though it's whites and whites. I'm not here for it. You don't represent my culture. You sound different. My circle of us and other triggers your other fuck you. Same with Italians, maybe not quite as white as an Irish kid, but still pretty fucking white. And they were still rejected. So it was only that we eventually like things were moving slow enough. That we would bring them in, reject them and then assimilate and they would become American. Then you would get the next wave. They would get rejected.

• 23:06Tom Bilyeu?

  Ah, but over time they would assimilate because America had enough cultural identity that it was like either you get on board with this or you can fuck right off. And so that became the pressure to assimilate became really strong. Now that it's happening too fast, there are too many different cultures coming from too many different places. And I think for reasons that will be way more controversial and become more. Tom speaking than Tom being more sort of high level, looking at just trends that I think are very defensible. I think there is also an agenda to get votes based on.

• 23:43Tom Bilyeu?

  Government welfare programs where now you're not trying to get people to assimilate. What you're trying to get them to do is vote as blocks. And so it's easier if a Somali community self isolates. So I only have to go win over the leadership there. Now I get them as a whole block. And so because I think there's a political incentive in addition to just a natural fuck, man. I'm a Somali who finds myself in Minnesota. Jesus, I can't relate to anybody. This is fucking weird. I can't believe your country gets this cold. What is happening? So it's already, you're gonna isolate down. Now you're giving political incentives for the political class to be glad that you're also not diffusing, that you're voting as a block. And so now you're getting these communities that aren't attempting to assimilate.

• 24:27Tom Bilyeu?

  And so the sense of what it means to be American is no longer being propagated, which means we're not turning into a melting pot. We're staying these like different groups with different values. Now, on top of that, the left really believes this idea of, well, there's no culture that's better than another. That's super fucking judgmental. And so it's like, we need to be tolerant of everything, which once again weakens like, okay, wait, what do we stand for? What do we arrest somebody for? What do we just draw hard lines around and say, both from a legal and from a cultural perspective, we just aren't gonna tolerate? That starts to get really muddy. Nobody can agree on what that is, which just further creates these fractions. Now, again, just to point people at, race is completely a construct of a populist moment,

• 25:13Tom Bilyeu?

  where it's easy, we know that people, it's just so visible, that if I'm trying to keep you in your emotions, I'm trying to keep you mad, then, and people do it naturally. I want to be very clear. You're leveraging it as a demagogue because it's so easy, because people so naturally us and other based on skin color, that you just keep fomenting that. But it's all fake. The real thing is culture. Now, if there's a culture being transmitted through a group that also has a consistent.

• 25:45Tom Bilyeu?

  Skin color. Now it's like it's ah, Jesus. Trying to tease those out becomes very, very difficult. But in reality, they actually are two different phenomenon. And if we keep them apart, we'll have a much easier time working our way through the problem to get back to what am I trying to achieve? What are the policies I need to put in place to achieve it? Okay, now with that said, you can have two groups, Catholics and Protestants in Belfast, to bring it back to Belfast, who they're, they are indistinguishable from each other. They look identical. If you twenty-three and me them, you're not going to see, oh, these are Catholics and Protestants. You're going to say they're Irish. And so they're completely

• 26:28Tom Bilyeu?

  indistinguishable from that like phenomenological standpoint. However, they'll still kill each other. And once you understand that they've been killing each other for hundreds of years over something that is not visually apparent in their skin color, then hopefully people understand, okay, when you collide two values that have no interest in meshing with each other, there will be violence. And that's the part that I'm like, okay, we've got a government that really does seem to be trying to solve for two problems, economics and political power. And using immigrants. So if you're on the right, you're solving for I've got to keep everything cheap. If you're on the left, you're trying to keep everything cheap.

• 27:10Tom Bilyeu?

  And you're trying to keep voting power because you're presumably going to be more government handouts, bigger government wherever possible. And so that becomes just an incredible way to stay in power. And now it's like, sure, but you're blinding yourself to the fact these groups are going to go to war. And that's where it's like, you have to talk about it because it's going to keep being a bigger and bigger problem. But every time you try to talk about it, people just go race.

• 27:38Speaker 02

  You put a lot of pieces on the table right there. I feel like that was well thought out and well executed, so I have no notes.

• 27:47Speaker 02

  Where do we go from here in the sense of how do we handle this conversation? When it seems like more and more people are trying to silence videos, take things off the table? How do we, do we just have to, similar to the red, the red, the right-left divide in America? Do we just have to ride this populist moment out and then we can have the conversation?

• 28:06Tom Bilyeu?

  No, I think, I think that would be a real problem. So I, I don't think we have the timeline for that because I'm not yet optimistic that we're going to get out of this populist moment anytime soon. I think the populist moment may carry us all the way through the economic collapse of America. So that's, you know, nine years from now, if nothing changes, Kevin Warsh and Besen being sophisticated enough. If you have a right-leaning government for the next, call it eight to 12 years, you might be able to slow that decline.

• 28:39Speaker 02

  Is it immigration or?

• 28:40Tom Bilyeu?

  No, no, because they'll, they'll devalue the dollar so much that the debt will become less of a burden. That's horrible, by the way. I don't want that to sound like, oh yay! It's, they will just lengthen the period of decline. Whereas the left will unintentionally accelerate that period of decline because they'll break the economy. But anyway, so it's, you're on a finite time period. Right now, I see only an appetite, both on the left and the right, to make things worse, maybe at different rates, but they're going to make things worse, which means you're going to stay economically insecure, which means you're going to stay in your emotions, which means by definition, because populism is when people ration, when they think emotionally.

• 29:23Tom Bilyeu?

  They're scared, they're thinking emotionally, and so they're being used to get put on teams. Okay, given that, you're going to have to deal with this now. The only way to deal with this now is to say, okay.

• 29:36Tom Bilyeu?

  I'm going to carefully delineate between culture and race. And I know that nonetheless, I'm going to be called racist and all of that. But I want to keep, and this would be my advice to anybody that's going to deal with the subject. I'm going to keep separating those two and I'm going to keep relentlessly talking about culture. And if you can get people to admit that culture matters, if you can get people to admit that England, France, white, white, white, killed each other for hundreds of years. Because they were different cultures and they were fighting for their own culture. They were fighting for a sense of, um, I want the things you have, you want the things that I have. We can't always cooperate because we see the world differently and so we're going to fight. That's just what humans do.

• 30:15Tom Bilyeu?

  So now we have to pause immigration, assimilate, see who is going to assimilate, put laws in place that force assimilation or inspire people to leave.

• 30:30Speaker 02

  I need to drill on that. What is, what's a one that will force assimilation?

• 30:32Tom Bilyeu?

  The easiest one is going to be, um, stop doing handouts so that people actually have to contribute to the local economies. Or otherwise they're just not going to be able to make ends meet and they will leave.

• 30:45Tom Bilyeu?

  Force things like we have a national language and it is, insert your country. Italy speaks Italian, Japan speaks Japanese, America speaks English, England speaks English, uh, Ireland speaks Irish, whatever.

• 30:57Speaker 02

  So if you can't speak the language, you get deported.

• 31:00Tom Bilyeu?

  It's not necessarily deported because for me, if you've already let someone in your country and they are a citizen, it's game over. You don't get, for me, this is my, uh, view of the world. You don't get to just kick that person out. They are a citizen of your country. You may say, oof, we had bad policies back then. Yeah, okay, but like you had the policies. So that violates my sense of right and wrong. So I've got this person here, they're a citizen. Now, if they're a non-citizen, sure, you can do things, change status, whatever and say, hey, sorry, no more, we're now going to deport people that are violent criminals here seeking asylum, whatever. You can, whatever that criteria is going to be. I would advise people to say, the people you actually care about.

• 31:46Tom Bilyeu?

  About getting out of your country are the people that are either actively promoting the destruction of your culture. So Japan becomes the easiest one to look at because for whatever reason, I guess partly because they're Asian. People like give them a pass for wanting to protect their culture in a way that other countries don't get. England doesn't get that pass. America doesn't get that pass, but it gets a lot easier to talk about with Japan. So, cool. You're Japan. You have a very unique culture. You want to defend that culture. If you have people inside of your country that are doing things to attack that culture, then you're going to put things in policy that will either increase the penalties for those things,

• 32:28Tom Bilyeu?

  or just do things like all public schools are only available in Japanese. All road signs can only be done in Japanese, whatever. Like you find ways where it's like, you're making it very clear. If you want to be here, awesome, but here are the things, here are the norms that we expect you to conform to. There are also going to be two ways that this battle plays out. And when Jordan Peterson brought this up, people lost their ever-loving minds. So I don't expect a different reaction, but the reality is, it is true. So as a large society, we have to say, these are the things that we tolerate and don't tolerate. And that doesn't mean that you walk up to somebody on the subway and if they're doing something that you don't think fits the national character that you slap them, it's not what I'm saying.

• 33:10Tom Bilyeu?

  But what I am saying is you make it very clear through social ostracization, through, you know, literally turning your back on somebody, that we don't put up with that shit here. So now it can also be that you create like, I think they've done this in Korea. I think they're flirting with it in Japan, that they put nuisance laws on the books. So Americans act some type of way. It's part of our culture. Great. I was once the brash American in China and it served me incredibly well. I won't lie. I was about to miss a flight. Everybody was being so polite. I'm like, this is fucking insane. I've been standing in this line for whatever, like 90 minutes and I'm, I have a layover.

• 33:52Tom Bilyeu?

  Like I've got to get to the next flight. So finally I was like at the front of the line, but I was. Clearly, if I don't speak up now, I am going to miss my flight. I'm like twenty one, I'm fucking terrified of being stranded in a country I don't know anything. Uh, and so I was like, I'm so sorry, but I'm gonna miss my flight. And so they're like, oh, my God, please come up. They took care of me super easy, but then everybody else in line suddenly got really pissed. And was like, well, me too, I'm about to miss my flight. Why did he get to go? And I was like, I got to go because I was the brash American that spoke up. So anyway, I get it. If they're gonna be like, we don't do that here. And they were like, get the fuck, get in the back of the line. Or if they have a rule that's like, oh, the person who asks you go all the way to the back of the line and I end up missing my flight.

• 34:32Tom Bilyeu?

  Fuck me, that's bad on me. They've got a culture. I stepped outside a line, boom, like you've got your way of handling this. People, countries should absolutely recognize what I'll call soft power of cultural enforcement. Not everything has to be the police taking you off, but there's gonna be some of that. So a lot of the streamers acting a fool get treated very differently in South Korea than they're gonna get treated in America. Every culture gets to make their decision. But that is ultimately how you're going to have to prosecute this. I don't think countries have an obligation to make themselves a place that every migrant from anywhere in the world wants to go.

• 35:14Tom Bilyeu?

  Again, Japan, when I was trying to do business in Japan, it felt, I won't say hostile because it didn't feel hostile. But it felt like I was running into a wall that I could not understand. And now the more that I researched Japan, it's, that is exactly how they um, slow the integration with outsiders. Is like, oh, yes, this is very interesting. Yes, yes, yes, but they, it's a hundred percent no. And for anybody embedded into Japanese culture, they know in real time, yeah, that's what they say when it's a hundred percent no. But as a foreigner, I couldn't tell. So it is um, they have that right.

• 35:53Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 35:55Tom Bilyeu?

  Taking a short break, but there's more Impact Theory after. Stay tuned. Let's talk about something that genuinely keeps me awake at night. My team at Impact Theory gets hit with phishing scams from bad actors pretending to be me all the time. And they keep getting more sophisticated attacks with details specific enough to look legit. AI has made a lot of things possible, including scams like this. But AI still needs raw material. It gets it from data brokers who sell your name, address, phone number to anyone willing to pay. Incogni goes after that supply. They handle removal requests across 420-plus harmful broker sites, and they keep checking back as brokers constantly try to relist you.

• 36:40Tom Bilyeu?

  On the unlimited plan, the exposure scanner hunts down your information, send a link, and their privacy experts handle the takedown. Track your progress in the app and get a monthly risk assessment showing exactly where you stand. Go to incogni.com/impact and use code IMPACT for 60% off an annual plan. Incogni is I-N-C-O-G-N-I dot com slash impact. Promo code IMPACT. It's completely risk-free with a 30-day money-back guarantee.

• 37:13Tom Bilyeu?

  Thanks for staying tuned. Now, let's get back to it.

• 37:16Speaker 02

  Okay, the spiciest take of the chat actually comes from Ryan. So you said a lot of this. I don't want to take your words out here. You said a lot of-

• 37:26Speaker 03

  Which one is it? Because I've been arguing with some of the chatters.

• 37:29Speaker 02

  You're like, this is a false flag. This is just white people trying to put the boot on the-

• 37:33Speaker 03

  Oh, I feel like-

• 37:34Speaker 02

  I don't want to put words in your mouth, so I'm giving you like-

• 37:36Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 37:37Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 37:37Speaker 03

  I feel like this situation in particular, this is particular to this story.

• 37:41Speaker 02

  Belfast beheading that happened yesterday.

• 37:43Speaker 03

  I feel like this is a situation where if this guy wasn't white, we wouldn't be talking about this. I think a lot of times what happens in these situations, while there are valid concerns to be discussed, whatever those may be with people, I think a lot of times, white people who are too up in arms about race and immigration tend to put the boot on their own head with these types of situations in that- They are making something a bigger deal when it was like I look at this case in particular. And I'm like, are there serious conversations to be had about immigration or race for sure? But I don't think that's a result of this. I think this is just some terrible thing happened. And the person needed to be punished, right? They need to get prison and jail time. As they almost killed a man and it's terrible. But I think it's become a race thing when it's doesn't really need to be.

• 38:26Tom Bilyeu?

  Here's the problem. What you're missing is that back in the eighties. This would have made the news had it been two white people as long as one of them was Protestant and the other was Catholic. Because it became indicative of an underlying problem that had to be talked about. Now it's entirely possible in my fictional scenario. That that person was mentally ill and it actually didn't have anything to do with Protestants and Catholics. And so therefore on this, the actual like core merits of the case, it really is more about mental illness. Again, this is a fabricated scenario, but you'll get the idea. That it really was about mental illness and it wasn't about Catholics and Protestants. But the Catholic and Protestant issue is so real. And is really in the middle of something that needs to be diffused.

• 39:08Tom Bilyeu?

  That it becomes a flashpoint and it gets people talking. So the whole idea of never let a good crisis go to waste. So what you're seeing here, you have a real problem with a collision of cultures. So for instance, one thing, if you really want to trigger, trigger people, say the following. There really is such a thing as cultures, typically hurting cultures that have this whole idea of honor. And the reason that you end up with an honor culture when you're herders is that no one's coming to protect you. And so if somebody comes and steals your animals and you don't go fuck them up. Then people realize, oh, I can steal Ryan's shit because he doesn't do anything about it. And so you very quickly learn your own team will be like, bitch, you better go do something about that.

• 39:51Tom Bilyeu?

  You cannot let somebody come and fuck with your sheep across the line or whatever. Because it really is about livelihood. So that culture now has an honor culture and it is very effective. When you're a hurting culture and if you don't have it, you have a real problem. So I understand how it becomes born of that. Now, what ends up happening is if you migrate that to a place where it doesn't make sense, you've got to get rid of that cultural problem. A thing that makes sense back in, say, Scotland, because this is actually what happened in the US. You have a bunch of these Scottish guys that come over to America, become part of the founding fathers. They're still fucking dueling. And everyone's like, what the fuck are you doing? Like, that might have made sense back when you were hurting. It doesn't make sense now.

• 40:34Tom Bilyeu?

  So, whatever the fuck, we've got to put this soft cultural power to say, we don't do that in America. And so, we end up diffusing that. And we would think it ridiculous if two politicians started dueling. Now, we'd be like, guys, this is the most idiotic thing in the known universe. And so, when people try to say, like, oh, this horrific thing happened, and now we're just fucking making it about race, and you're pretending there's not this huge brewing thing that a culture is imported, and I'll point right at Pakistan. So, for whatever reason, the part of Pakistani culture that says,

• 41:12Tom Bilyeu?

  hey, if I call my cousin up and I'm like, yo, let's go rape this girl, that I can expect that my cousin's gonna be like, yeah, dope. Now, if my cousin called me and said that, I'd be like, the fuck is wrong with you? So, that's gonna be, you know, a thing. And now, admittedly, I'm maybe not as tight-knit with my cousins as you would be in Pakistan. And maybe we go, but the tight-knit-ness of the family, they're dope. We love that. But it's playing out in this context, possibly because it's mixed with religious ideology that says, well, if they're not of my religion, then they're lesser than, and this is okay. Obviously, gonna be hotly contested. But I'm saying if you put ideas like that together,

• 41:52Tom Bilyeu?

  you start getting a disproportionate per capita thing happening. I'm talking about the rape gangs, right? And so, it was a wildly disproportionate number of Pakistani men that were involved in this very specific thing. And so, if we can't talk about that, that, oh, there's an echo of culture happening here, that's where it deranges, and we're not able to have, like, the real conversation. So, for instance, people are gonna say, whoa, whoa, whoa, Tom, that's ridiculous. It's not about that, it's about poverty. It's about the stress of being in a new place and all of that. It's like, okay, let's break that down on its merits. Do we actually see that survive contact with the data? And so we'll probably get more into that with the Metcalfe thing.

• 42:35Tom Bilyeu?

  You start getting into things where the arguments just don't match the data. And that's where it's like, if you actually want to solve the problem and defuse the bomb, you have to admit, you, I would say, this will always be nonsensical forever. If you don't agree that we live in a deterministic universe, and all I mean by that is everything is cause and effect. And so a thing is happening, a pattern is forming. It has a knowable cause and effect. Now, we may not have identified the actual cause and effect yet, but it is there to be discovered if we're willing to look at it. The problem is, so far, we haven't been willing to look at it. We just immediately terminate at, well, this is just racism.

• 43:16Tom Bilyeu?

  And because it is so closely correlated, people stop there and go, yeah, it probably really is race. And so that's the thing that worries me is that people aren't really trying to get to the underlying, okay, what's the mechanism of this? Like, even if we were gonna say this is racism, what's the mechanism? And if you just stop at, well, white people are racist assholes, you're not gonna get very far. And that's where it's like, okay, well, break down for me. Why do white people in particular become racist assholes? Like, is there actually a reason? I, my hypothesis is that that won't survive contact with the data.

• 43:58Tom Bilyeu?

  And that white people are not more racist than the next group hypothesis. So you, you can test these things, all of them make a prediction. But right now, it's, it's playing out at the level of emotion, not at the level of data. And that's where I think we derange each other.

• 44:16Speaker 03

  I think that's, then we're on the same page. So what I would say is, the emotion, I think, is the problem with everyone reacting to the situation. Because I think what you're describing is two very distinct situations. One, which is the immigration conversation, but also one, which is a man killed another, or tried to kill another man, right? And I think, to me, those are distinctly different conversations. My problem comes in when people start, like, online, because this is more an online thing, right? Because I feel like us on the show, we're always looking at the full picture. But with people online, it's like you said, they're jumping too quickly to, "Oh, this is just people of color attacking white people." And I feel like that's, there is more to it. It's not just that, right? I think that's where my disconnect is, and the whole boot on their head kind of thing.

• 44:58Speaker 02

  Yeah, when Florida man was eating people's faces off, it wasn't, "We need to talk about estabulation in culture." It was, "Oh, well, we need to feel bad for him because it's drugs." And so it's like the default response to the results.

• 45:10Tom Bilyeu?

  That's actually, so you're bringing up a really interesting point that I have not heard anybody categorize, and it might be worth us starting to do that. So you'll have a hierarchy of immediate emotional explanations for a thing. Like, for instance, I look at the Carmelo Anthony Metcalf, forget his first name, but that whole thing, I don't see, I don't see evidence that it's race. I didn't hear them saying racial epithets to each other. No one's reported that, as far as I know. So it's like, you had a black guy and a white guy in an altercation, but I don't know that that was what caused the altercation. So,

• 45:52Tom Bilyeu?

  on that level, it's, okay, we've got to police a crime. Now, it is being read in the public as a thing about race. It has gained prominence and national attention because of the race. And if the race factor wasn't there, to Ryan's point... I don't think this one would catch fire.

• 46:13Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 46:13Tom Bilyeu?

  But it's so easy to give examples where it does catch fire, even though race isn't involved because there's a different underlying issue Catholics and Protestants. So that's where it's like, okay, race is clearly a thing that we're going to have to address. Like, we have to figure out why this becomes that immediate thing. So in the like hierarchy of emotional things that I'm going to grab for, when it's white on white crime, obviously, I'm not grabbing for race, at least in an American context, is very less likely to be

• 46:43Tom Bilyeu?

  something about religion. But let's say that we had a white Muslim attack a white guy. Okay, can't grab for race. But if that guy is like banging the drum for ISIS, oh guaranteed. Now, all of a sudden, it's Muslims, it's immigration. It that will happen immediately. And then people are going to go, wait, this is obviously a made up scenario. But wait, that white guy, he was, he's an American citizen, dude. Like, his family can trace their ancestry back to fucking Plymouth Rock. Like, what are you talking about?

• 47:14Speaker 02

  Then it becomes a radical left is is that's what's that's what.

• 47:17Tom Bilyeu?

  Maybe, or it goes to, well, we let all these Muslims in and they're now converting our own. This is why we really got to stand up. And so people will grab, or it could be exactly what you're saying. No, no, no, this is a, the radical left is the problem and we got to fucking get rid of these guys. They tolerate anything. This is bullshit. So it's like, we we've got these different cassette tapes that we can punch in to make sure said thing fits our narrative. And that's where it's like, okay, hold on, like, let's break this down. What's the actual cause and effect here? Now, the bad news is, if

• 47:54Tom Bilyeu?

  the meme now, of course, would be America. If America rolls up on your door and America is saying, we're here to bring you freedom and you have oil. All of a sudden, I'm like, uh oh, the cover story might not match the reality. And so if people said, Americans act in this type of way, they are imperialistic. They are trying to get access to the resources of the world. I'd be like.

• 48:20Tom Bilyeu?

  There was a lot of evidence there. That really might be true. And so now it's like, we've got to contend with that. Now, if the data doesn't back it up, and somebody can show me that America doesn't act in America's best resource controlling interest way, cool, I'll accept the data. But right now, my swag is yeah, America really does do that. So that's where it's like, yeah, you've got a bunch of cassette tapes that you can play. Some of them will survive contact with the data. Others will not. Sometimes it'll be a confluence of things. But if you're careful to tease them out, and when you hear somebody make the claim, you don't just go, shut up racist. You go, all right, cool. Let's have a good faith conversation. And if the person is just completely in their feels, then it's like, okay, this is an emotional

• 49:03Tom Bilyeu?

  conversation. We are not going to make progress. Ground this for me in a set of facts, so that we can talk about those set of facts. And then we can just follow the logical thing. But what ends up happening, either somebody doesn't know the facts, so they have to stay emotional, or they encounter a fact that they do not like, and so they break emotional. It goes ad hominem. And that's where it's like, again, soft power of culture, we need to push back and go, oh, see, this person just went emotional here. So, great example of somebody who's an extraordinary orator, I think a very clear thinker, an exceptional member of the help me think through difficult problems intellectual crowd, but derailed in a certain argument, was, oh, God,

• 49:47Tom Bilyeu?

  now I'm blanking on his name. He was on Rogan with Smith. They were talking about Israel. Douglas Murray. Douglas Murray, thank you. Douglas Murray, if you clock him as being dumb, that's a full retard statement. That's somebody who's in their feels. They're not making any sense. Douglas is very intelligent, is very articulate. He can build his arguments based on reason and rationality. However, in that debate, he did not. And so, to be able to go, oh, that's interesting, like, he hit an ejection point here, that was purely emotional. Why the fuck did he do that? That's so weird. And so, if, when that happens, because nobody's going to be perfect, nobody's going to bat a thousand, you go, ah, well, he clearly lost that one, because he took this strange emotional exit ramp out of the facts, and so what the fuck?

• 50:33Tom Bilyeu?

  If we can take each moment like that, we might actually be able to make progress as a society. If we can't, and everybody just like, yeah, that feels so fucking good. I just want the emotion, then we're going to be in trouble. And so that's the one where I'm not entirely sure we're going to be able to pull our way out of this. But nonetheless, it, the facts remain there for all of us to avail ourselves of at any time. And this is like, it's so interesting to me because obviously people can rightly make the claim. This guy used to be so positive. He used to like, just talk about mindset and how to uplift everybody. And now he talks about all these dark subjects. For me, this is mindset aimed at these incredibly difficult conversations.

• 51:15Tom Bilyeu?

  So whether I'm trying to make my marriage better, make more money, whatever, I'm just like, okay. I'm here. My goal is there. There's some problem, some obstacle that stands between me and where I want to get to. But I now have to face whatever is true. And oftentimes the shitty true thing is I'm not good enough at something yet. I'm doing something stupid. Now, if I'm willing to take that on board, then the cause and effect of life, the universe, comes to my aid and I can now get where I want to go. But if I'm like, no, fuck that, like, I'm never going to get there. It's always got to be cause and effect.

• 51:49Speaker 02

  Um, you queued up the Carmelo thing. Let's touch base on that. Yeah. Uh, he got thirty five years. Jeez.

• 51:56Tom Bilyeu?

  Thirty five years, boys and girls. A Collin County jury convicted, he was seventeen at the time he committed the crime. He's nineteen now. Carmelo Anthony, uh, he was convicted of murder for the twenty twenty five stabbing of then seventeen year old Austin Metcalf. Uh, the twelve jurors deliberated for only about three hours, which is almost always a bad sign for the defense. Uh, they ended up sentencing him to thirty five years. Um, they could have sentenced him all the way to ninety nine years. So while I know people are, um, not, now some people are not necessarily happy with thirty five years. Actually was a fairly middle of the road sentence, uh, for what they could have done.

• 52:35Tom Bilyeu?

  He'll be eligible for parole in seventeen and a half years. So by Texas state law, he has to serve at least half of the sentence. Obviously they're going to appeal it, but if it stands, uh, he'll spend at least seventeen and a half years. Now, the story in the media is one that's being entirely consumed by race narratives for reasons of everything that we've just been talking about. Uh, but the facts that were presented in the Pretty straightforward. So on April 2nd of 2025, both boys were 17. Anthony was a centennial high athlete. He entered into the rival memorial high teams tent at a Frisco track meet. Witnesses testified that Carmelo was asked to lead by several students, including Metcalf, as many as 15 times, but he refused. Metcalf approached Anthony and told him to move.

• 53:21Tom Bilyeu?

  Anthony reached into his backpack and said, touch me and see what happens. When Metcalf shoved him, Anthony pulled a three and a half inch folding knife and stabbed Metcalf once in the chest and then took off running. A witness ended up showing police where he had dumped the knife. And the wound ended up piercing Metcalf's heart. Medical examiner, Dr. Elizabeth Ventura, described it as a large gaping, non-survivable injury. A coach on the scene did apply pressure. There was somebody else that was performing CPR, but it didn't work and Metcalf ended up dying at the hospital. In body cam footage that was played at the trial, Anthony told the officer that I'm not

• 54:02Tom Bilyeu?

  alleged, I did it. He put his hands on me. I told him not to. Prosecutors called 21 witnesses during the trial. Students described Anthony as the aggressor, that he was quote, looking for a fight, and called it lethal force against non-lethal force. DA Bill Wersky said, you don't get to meet a shove with a stab, especially if you provoke the shove. The defense argued self-defense and rested without putting Anthony on the stand, a decision that a lot of pundits are now questioning, giving the outcome of the trial. But it is possible that that was the best option. Look, being on the stand is a very difficult thing. You subject yourself to being cross-examined. And so that one's tough

• 54:45Tom Bilyeu?

  and you never get to run the counterfactual. So it certainly didn't surprise me that they would keep him off the stand. So yeah, hindsight, maybe 2020, or we all play out that, well, if only we had done that, it would have worked out perfectly, but you don't know that. So anyway, I wouldn't be casting a lot of aspersions on the defense team for that. Jurors had the option of a lesser. Or manslaughter charge, but they did decline it. At sentencing, they also rejected something known as sudden passion defense, which is basically like a manslaughter defense. That would have capped his sentence at 20 years. They also declined that. Now, the question is going to be how intense the race debate is going to get on the back of this.

• 55:25Tom Bilyeu?

  I have a feeling this one's going to dissipate relatively quickly. We'll have maybe a few days or a week of this. But whether this one dissipates quickly or not, this was sort of, if you believe that this is all about race, it's going to be another one that you put in that category. And when you look at this stuff, the temptation is always to be the people that don't feel the way you feel, they're all dumb. They all have some sinister agenda. I think it is far more useful to assume that the people that have the exact opposite opinion of you, they are smart, they are well intentioned, but they're reading the world very differently than you. The reason that I say to do that, one, it makes it much harder. It will force you to find facts.

• 56:07Tom Bilyeu?

  Because if you eject out at the, well, they're just dumb, you dismiss them. You make it seem like there's nothing serious here to contend with, but the stuff builds up and builds up and builds up. And so I think it is far more wise of us to figure out why the people who disagree with us, regardless of what side you're on, why do the people, if they are smart and well intentioned and just from your perspective, wrong, what is it that they're grabbing on to? And so if you're like, oh, they're just ejecting out at this emotional stance, okay, cool. But what's driving that? Is it economic in nature? Is there something being passed on in a subculture that isn't helpful? Like, all of these things need to be figured out. Otherwise, we're just going to continue to fail to understand each other.

• 56:51Tom Bilyeu?

  This is why when you're in your most just like aggressive debate with somebody, my instinct is always to pause, to step out of the emotional stream and say, okay, I want to be able to articulate your stance back to you in a way that you recognize, where you will say, you understand my position perfectly. I'm going to try to articulate in a generous fashion, by the way, your base assumptions, the things that I think are Driving your worldview. And so I'll say, okay, for you to believe that and for it to make sense, you would have to believe these following base assumptions. Are they correct? If they're correct, then it's like, okay, I can now state the base assumptions that are driving your thinking in a way where you go, yes, you understand my position perfectly. Now, at that point, I might go, holy shit.

• 57:36Tom Bilyeu?

  By your own admission, I understand your position perfectly. The base assumptions that are driving your position perfectly. And now you violate these values that I hold dear. But at least I can point at it and say, I think the value system that's driving you is absolutely insane. I can articulate it. You agree that it's correct. And now we're at least like, okay, we, we understand each other. We disagree, but we understand each other. And you're not always going to be able to achieve agreement with people. But at least if you're touching ground truth, I know what your actual, like the mental map that you're building. Now, it could be emotional at every turn. And one thing I have found oftentimes is people don't understand the own like base assumptions that they have that build their worldview.

• 58:21Tom Bilyeu?

  And so some people will just eject out. They'll stay in their emotions. They will not be able to have the conversation. Cool. That's not a person that we're going to be able to explore this part of that with. You can set them aside. Whatever epithets they throw at you, you can just ignore. So it's like, okay, I'm moving on to the next person who can at least articulate their base assumptions. If you go in with that, like, I really want to understand this person before I just assume that all the things they're saying, what they would mean if I were saying them, because that's often the gap is, yes, it would be a crazy thing for you to say those words, but you don't have their base assumptions, their worldview, their frame of reference. And so try to step inside, map first from there. That doesn't mean that you're like, oh, my God, yes, now I understand and everything you're saying is right.

• 59:06Tom Bilyeu?

  You just want to make sure that you're having the argument at the level of building block of their argumentation. If they don't have one, then it's like, okay, this is not a fruitful person to have this conversation with.

• 59:19Speaker 02

  It's a lot of people that it's not fruitful to have that conversation with.

• 59:22Tom Bilyeu?

  It's true. And the thing is, is like, at least if you have that frame of reference, you don't end up getting sucked into wasting your time with people for whom it's like, this is never going to be fruitful. This is a shouting match. This is ad hominem. And so, okay, yeah, I'll just move on to the next person. But if we are going, we're going to need to have this conversation, for sure, for sure, for sure. It is going to be further exacerbated by immigration that happens to, map to, um, the appearance of different skin color. And so then, in something I will just beat the drum on, people's inability to separate those two things creates a lot of confusion around race. Given America's history, that then fuels again,

• 1:00:04Tom Bilyeu?

  the race narrative that has never been fully, um, come to terms with. And so, yeah, I think that even though, like, uh, play Jasmine Crockett. I'll let her say it first and then I'll tell you how I feel about this.

• 1:00:17Speaker 02

  Jasmine Crockett, who lost to Telerico, now she's looking for...

• 1:00:23Speaker 04

  Black women, especially black women who have black male children, live in fear and agony every single day. A fear and agony that I promise you, the Metcalves probably never spent a day living that way. And we're gonna have to have just some real conversations about race in this country.

• 1:00:50Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay, so, uh, we're gonna have to have a real conversation about race in this country. I don't think she's wrong. I don't think this problem is gonna go away. Not after everything that has built up since, I mean, a lot of people clock it as since Obama went into office, but it certainly, for me, made my radar in 2020. That we were now going in a totally different direction than we'd been going when I was younger. And so, yeah, it does feel like we're gonna have to have a conversation about race, but that conversation can't be emotional. But as she was talking, she was kicking off a lot of things that hint at her base assumption. So one base assumption that I think she would agree with is that

• 1:01:33Tom Bilyeu?

  life is harder for young black men than for young white men.

• 1:01:40Tom Bilyeu?

  I would assume primarily around violence, though I would, that part I would feel less confident based on what I just heard. That even a mother who has just lost her child to murder can't understand how painful and terrifying it is to be the mother of a young black male. And it's like, okay, if she would agree with those things, now we can start laying them out. And it's like, okay, one colliding on the, does somebody who actually lost their child have a deeper understanding of pain than a woman who fears losing a child? I think she would acquiesce on that pretty quickly, but maybe not. Then we get into, okay, what about the fear of violence?

• 1:02:26Tom Bilyeu?

  For somebody raising a young black male? I think the data is unequivocal that a black mother has way more justification to be afraid that her child will end up in a violent altercation. The data is pretty clear on that. The question becomes, how do we begin to unwind that? And so is that a, this is systemic racism and it's playing out? Is this a subculture within some part of the black community? That like if you watch some of the people that were talking after the Metcalf thing, there was a woman who was just felt so convinced, if you put my, if you put your hands on me, then you are gonna be met with violence.

• 1:03:06Tom Bilyeu?

  And so it's like, well, if we are reinforcing a sense of honor culture, yeah, we're gonna have a problem. So. That's one where it's like, what I would hope everybody would teach their kid is, all right, listen, if you're in an active fight, you're gonna have to fight back, obviously. If the situation can be diffused, step one is always diffuse the situation. And so making sure every parent of every color of every creed is operating under that rubric, I think would be much wiser. Now, I may be wrong about that, but that's the debate that we have to have. And so figuring out if this is something that's being reinforced as an echo,

• 1:03:50Tom Bilyeu?

  I don't know if people have read, I forget the exact title, but Thomas Sowell wrote a book about this, where he's saying that, I don't know, the inner-city black culture mirrors the redneck culture from, I think it's Scotland, Ireland, one of the two, but like, those two cultures, honor cultures, have a lot more to do with each other than people want to realize. Now, I have a slightly oblique lens into this, because at Quest, I was dealing with a lot of inner-city kids, I mean, young men, but they grew up in the inner cities, and they had the same honor culture, but they were all Hispanic. And so I'm seeing this, which may be part of the reason I'm convinced this isn't race and is culture, but I saw them deal with the same thing.

• 1:04:34Tom Bilyeu?

  Now, one of the people, this story to this day, it's one of those where, in a movie, it's cool, but when you put it into real life, it's kind of terrifying. So this kid gets beaten up, gets jumped, and he comes home, his mother places a bullet on the table and says, does that bullet have a name? He goes, yes, it does, loads it into the gun, he's 13, loads it into the gun, goes back out on the street looking for the kid that jumped him. Now, that's culture. Now, he's not black, but that's still culture. That's a mom teaching you. This is how we deal with this in this house. And I was like, bro, if I went home to my mom

• 1:05:16Tom Bilyeu?

  and said I got beaten up, she would be like, we gotta go talk to the principal. She would not have put a bullet on the table and said, does this bullet have a name? That's culture. So. These are, once it becomes like, if that's just his household, then that's a one-off, mom's gangster, whatever. But once it's like, oh yeah, like that's how you act in my neighborhood, which given how many stories he told me, given how many other people, they didn't tell me stories, my mom gave me a bullet. But like plenty of stories that were like, holy shit. Like, I can't believe that's the stuff that you guys, like, one kid was like, oh, my mom told me the world does not want, again, he's Hispanic, wasn't black, but my mom told me the world does not want people who look like me to succeed. And I was like, what the fuck?

• 1:05:59Tom Bilyeu?

  I'm like, that is the worst advice in the known universe. What your mom should have said was, even if the world does not want people who look like me to succeed, I'm still going to succeed because I can get so good at something, nobody can stop me. We'll call that the Kobe Bryant method. So it's culture, culture.

• 1:06:15Speaker 02

  T, you said this earlier, to the point of when something happens, we have the tapes that we go to, that we play. And it's very interesting, these two conversations, when we talk about the Belfast beheading. And it's a larger conversation about unchecked immigration. And then we talked about Carmelo and Austin Metcalf, and how it's an underlying issue of race in America. And so it's no longer about what these individuals have done. It's now, this person who beheaded it is now the face for all immigration and everything that's wrong with immigration in the UK. And in Austin Metcalf's scenario, Carmelo Anthony is the thing that's wrong with all black people and black culture that's happening in America.

• 1:06:57Speaker 02

  And I think that it's very interesting that in these two crimes, these people are the faces of these races and these cultures, where people interact with other people that counteract that daily. So I have to pass 16 Somalis that I either bought food from, that I see on the subway, that have backpacks on, that are laughing, that are on their phones, to get to the one that's beheading people. But see, they're the problem, the Somalis, you know? And then the same thing with black people. Yeah, I have to pass 16 people, I have to pass 32 chicken stands, I have to pass, while I'm listening to Jay-Z, I have to, I'm going through all this different culture of counter evidence to get to Austin Metcalf. So you see, blacks are the problem, so.

• 1:07:41Speaker 02

  It's just an interesting perspective.

• 1:07:42Tom Bilyeu?

  Well, so that's where I would say, okay, you're putting a really important point on. So now, how do we get to the layer where it's all solutions? All we care about are solutions. So when people say, okay, look at the per capita crime rates. If people do a Michael Malice mousetrap, and they just eject out of the conversation because they don't want to talk about that, then you've got a problem.

• 1:08:05Speaker 02

  Do you want to talk about the per capita crime rate?

• 1:08:07Tom Bilyeu?

  I mean, I'm certainly happy to talk about the per capita crime rate.

• 1:08:09Speaker 02

  Because there is a counterfactual to that. Because everybody's claim, black people are 13% of the population, they make a X amount of percent of the arrest. But they are also overrepresented in exonerations, overrepresented in false accusations, overrepresented in actual sentencing, overrepresented in appeals, all these other things. So because more people are arrested, but less people actually stay in jail. So it's, you got, more people get caught. Where if I'm talking, if this is like fish, like, it's saying that some people get into the boat, some people get tossed back. Less black people get tossed back. But then they get exonerated, their thing gets expelled, there is more corruption in their, there are more corruption in their cases, things like that. But then on the flip side,

• 1:08:53Speaker 02

  we never hear the case that white people are overrepresented represented in pedophilia cases or child pornography. So are white people the problem? We should take kids away from white people? Catholic church, the priests are overrepresented in, so should all Catholic churches be closed? Why haven't we closed any Catholic churches yet? So we care about per capita when it furthers our agenda of something that we already believe. You said this in the deep dive. It hasn't come out yet, but we make an assumption, blacks are the other people. We take the facts, overrepresented stats, gangster movies, rap music. Okay, based on these four, this is my now thesis, this is why black people are bad, let's send them back. And then, on the flip side, when I have counterpoints, we have other cultures that are overrepresented in crime statistics. Oh, that doesn't matter, all Catholic people aren't pedophiles.

• 1:09:38Speaker 02

  All white people aren't. You see, so it's, when it's certain cultures, it's now immigrants are the problem because of one beheading. When it's, when it's a black person, all black people are the problem because one guy responded with a stabbing. But when it comes to white people, they don't have that necessarily, that freedom. It's just one crazy white person. Like, what's the dude that killed Charlie Kirk?

• 1:09:57Speaker 03

  Oh, he was a white guy, but he was.

• 1:09:59Speaker 02

  Tyler Robinson, yes. Tyler Robinson is just a crazy guy. But it's not all white boys who are by themselves, who are into furries, need to get sent away. You get what I mean?

• 1:10:07Tom Bilyeu?

  Well, there is some of that, but. Because the Tyler Robinson thing has caught up a trans and so people, he's definitely gonna fit into that narrative.

• 1:10:15Speaker 02

  Trans fit that too, like, trans are the problem now, because if a trans person, you know.

• 1:10:18Tom Bilyeu?

  Right, so that, what I see you putting on the table is something very important, which is, okay, there, people use these stats as talking points. Once you're using a stat as a talking point, you're trying to win the argument, you're not trying to solve the problem. What I'm appealing people to do is, there is a solution. And so, until you've gotten to the solution, you haven't done the adequate work. And so, I will often say, I know that my approach was right when I get the result that I want, and I know that my approach is wrong when I don't get the result that I want. And the great irony is, when I present that, especially in a work situation,

• 1:10:59Tom Bilyeu?

  people will defend my failures, because they think I'm emotionally being hurt by the fact that it failed, whereas I am merely trying to understand cause and effect. And so I'll do a thing, and it doesn't work, and I'm like, yeah, therefore that thing, like, that was a poor, like, approach. And they'll be like, well, no, I mean, like, it really made sense at the time. Fucking, yes, I understand that it made sense, I know why we did it. But the reality is, it did not yield the thing. And so, if we're, if, if battle number one that we have to have is, every time that we go to try and talk about, the, let's say that the problem we're actually trying to solve for is black versus white animosity.

• 1:11:42Tom Bilyeu?

  And we're like, okay, first thing that we want to put on the table is, we're getting this per capita thing, being thrown around, plus media representations, equal, white people are getting the wrong perception of black people, and it creates a gravity well for them, they're unable to get out of that. There's probably jobs that secretly they just never get, because people think we're too violent or whatever. And so, it's creating a real problem, which holds us down in poverty. Poverty becomes an exacerbating factor, and so we're not able to get out. It's like, that is such a cogent hypothesis, but now we can go through, and we can start looking at, where does this break down or not? And if what we find is, oh, the data is just very clear. We're arrested more as a identifiable minority.

• 1:12:30Tom Bilyeu?

  However, once you like eliminate all the exonerations. And if you come up with a calculation that says not a hundred percent of the exonerations will go through. Um, and you do the math and when you do that, like it just disappears. And now all of a sudden, there is not more black and white crime. This is all ridiculous. Um, great, but this is one where every time I see people online trying to have like, okay, here are the stats and like, let's address each one of these. There's always a terminal point where somebody has presented a fact that let's just assume good intentions. The other person hasn't done a research on it yet.

• 1:13:05Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:13:05Tom Bilyeu?

  And so instead of going shit, that's interesting. I need to look into that. They eject out, goes back to ad hominem, this is racist. So that's what I'm saying. The, the thing I'm trying to do is not say, I know what the answer is. The thing I'm trying to do is say, if we can actually have the debate. If everybody in all, like, uh, what, what I would really encourage people to do. For instance, if we could make immigration work. Meaning people are happier, they're wealthier. Uh, the country's more, um, competitive on the world stage. Middle class is fucking booming. All, all the ways that I think a rational person would define that things are going great. That'd be fucking rad. But now let's look at what does that actually look like?

• 1:13:48Tom Bilyeu?

  So for me, it looks like more like 1600 America than 2026 America. It's like, yeah, if you can make it here, uh, but you're not going to have easy access. You're not going to have any access to social programs because you have not yet paid into the system. Uh, there's going to be a whole bunch of constraints. We're going to filter people for criminal record, things like that. We're only going to let in a certain, uh, type of person that we think is going to be successful. Blah, blah, blah. But you actually put together something that you think will survive contact with reality. And then you run a test and you put in early metrics that you say, this indicates that it'll work not. So I say that to say, all right, when you're approaching a problem, sincerely want a good solution. And if you can sincerely want a good solution, then at least you're operating from the place of,

• 1:14:32Tom Bilyeu?

  I've stepped outside of my emotions enough to just look at cause and effect. If people can't do that, then it ends up being a death spiral. And especially as it comes to race. In recent memory, it has just been a cudgel that people use to get you to shut up and stop looking at something. And we've just made so many things taboo that it will just make the problem harder and harder to actually solve for.

• 1:14:53Speaker 02

  Ryan, you got anything?

• 1:14:55Speaker 03

  I'll be honest, I was arguing with chat that whole conversation.

• 1:14:58Speaker 02

  Right, right.

• 1:14:59Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay, what is the most interesting or high utility argument that you're in?

• 1:15:05Speaker 03

  The problem is, none of this stuff is arguing about what y'all are even talking about. I was just getting mad because people are like, "Oh, you're a communist because you disagree with me." And it's like, I don't think that's, like, that's what discourse has dissolved to at this point in general. It's just, "Oh, you disagree with me? Communist." And it's like, that's not, you're not adding to the conversation. So that's why I was getting mad at chat. But in terms of-

• 1:15:26Tom Bilyeu?

  Why get sucked into it?

• 1:15:28Speaker 02

  Why get sucked into it?

• 1:15:29Speaker 03

  The chat?

• 1:15:30Tom Bilyeu?

  No, no, no. Chat is what you're here for.

• 1:15:32Speaker 03

  Oh.

• 1:15:32Tom Bilyeu?

  But the, um, so the second somebody ad hominem's me, I shift down in gears. I don't find myself getting wound up. So when I'm like, "Oh, they don't have an argument, cool." They're now just like slinging insults. So, one, if somebody said, "Tom, you're a communist," or "I'm more likely to get, you're an evil capitalist," then it's like, okay, first I go, "Is there any truth in that?" And if I detect the truth, I'm like, "Uh-oh." If there is no truth in it, then I go, "Okay, what is the base assumption they have that makes them say that?" And so if it's an economic slur, if you will, coming my way, I'm then gonna test, "Okay, what is it that they understand about economics?"

• 1:16:14Tom Bilyeu?

  Now, part of what I would warn you against for your sanity is that the method of engaging with chat is good at getting to whether the person has only emotion or they actually have base assumption. So you can delineate that. You're not gonna convince them. So the best that you're gonna be able to do is identify whether they're just on the emotional spectrum or whether they actually have a base assumption, whether they've encountered data that you haven't or not, and so it's something for you to go research. If you go into chat thinking, "My mission is to convince them," chat is not gonna be fun for you. You're gonna burn out. But if you go into chat and it's like, okay, the most vociferous, the most hate watcher, the person who shows up, Ryan, because they hate you and they think you're a communist.

• 1:16:59Tom Bilyeu?

  It's like, that's the person that you want to find out, oh, what, what base assumption are you picking up on? What's the thing that I said that you hate? What, what do you want to see happen in that? Not so that you can beat them in an argument, so that you can begin building a mental model of like, do we just have a bunch of lunatic emotional people in the chat? Like, what are you really up against? Do you know what I mean?

• 1:17:19Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:17:19Tom Bilyeu?

  And so, um, like, the, there was a, um, comment in YouTube that said, geez, Tom, you really surround yourself with, did they, they might've said lunatics, but they certainly said radical, far-left radicals, meaning you and Drew.

• 1:17:35Speaker 02

  Taking over the world.

• 1:17:37Tom Bilyeu?

  And my response-

• 1:17:38Speaker 02

  It's our scheme.

• 1:17:39Tom Bilyeu?

  My, my response was-

• 1:17:41Speaker 02

  Proving your kids are coming.

• 1:17:41Tom Bilyeu?

  They are well-intentioned people that I care about. And so, I want to understand what they think, and I want the challenges to the way that I think. Um, so it doesn't, neither their slander nor your guys' difference of opinions, um, make me mad. So they, if you treat chat like that, that, oh, they're gonna help sharpen my thinking, even though they might be doing it in like, an unhinged fashion, uh, you'll be in a better place. That would be my advice.

• 1:18:13Speaker 02

  All right. We got a bunch of topics to talk about, because we spent an hour and a half on racism.

• 1:18:17Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, we did.

• 1:18:17Speaker 02

  Let's go.

• 1:18:21Speaker 02

  Okay, first, we have the police helicopter, the, the US helicopter that got shot down in Iran. Um, I think two pilots were involved, nobody was, uh, hurt. This is Donald Trump's tweet, "I have just been informed by our great military that last night the Iran, Iranians shot down one of our highly sophisticated Apache helicopters while patrolling over the Strait of Hormuz. There were two pilots involved, both are safe and uninjured. Nevertheless, the US must, of necessity, respond to this attack. Thank you for attention to this matter, President Donald J. Trump."

• 1:18:47Tom Bilyeu?

  There it is. I do not think that Iran is negotiating in good faith. I do not think that they're looking for a negotiated settlement to this war. Uh, so, the reality is, we have to accept that limited warfare does not work, which means we are gonna be stuck in this quagmire, uh, effectively forever, until we find an exit ramp. The bad news is, I think we have simply made the situation worse, and, um- What we're probably about to see is more tit for tat violence. So Iran is saying, whoa, the US overshot the mark, we're now going to strike back. So we're probably just at another return to open hostilities. We'll see. But I don't see an end in sight. I don't think there is anything other than the US finally saying, we're either going to hold the blockade

• 1:19:32Tom Bilyeu?

  until there's so much international pain that we can get a bunch of people to join us in backing down the Iranians. But to pull that off, you probably need either China to tell them, hey, knock the fuck off. It might be that. Like, you might just need that if China's not going to tell them to do that, that you, if you walk away, the US, that they're going to put a toll on the Strait of Hormuz, which they've already said they're going to do. They've already started a website for collecting the tolls. They've started building the toll booth to actually get it. And so if the US pulls the blockade out, that's how that's going to play out. You might end up getting a skirmish between Iran and Oman, who both want to put tolls up. And if Iran says, no, we have

• 1:20:16Tom Bilyeu?

  the whole thing all the way over to your border. There could be a minor skirmish there, but I don't think Oman thinks that they can stand up to Iran. So you'll have that. If this ends up being the just blatant debacle that it, the current phase is now, if it drags on long enough, then you lose your potential investment from the GCC countries. I think they all understand, oh, America's had its Suez Canal moment. They can no longer protect us. So we've got to diversify. That's going to be what Russia for some things, China for most things. So yeah, you'll see a growth in the BRICS alliance. So it's just, it's one of those, like, the British Empire had their Suez Canal moment. It happens, unfortunately.

• 1:20:58Tom Bilyeu?

  We may be at that moment. Then this will all go back to regional powers, mostly economic warfare, continue move away from the dollar, yada, yada. And it just, from a cause and effect standpoint, it all plays out. And it ends up, you tried to make this a way to forestall the decline of the American empire long enough for AI to give you the growth you need to get out from under your debt. It didn't work. And so now you're back to my nine-year timeline.

• 1:21:26Speaker 02

  Uh, next thing, California election fraud is ramping up. There has been a DOJ prosecution for Brenda Brown for paying homeless people to register to vote under false addresses.

• 1:21:38Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, because the crazy thing is, by the way, uh, can you pay them? I don't know if you can pay them to vote, but you can ballot harvest like a motherfucker. So I don't yet know if the money is the problem, the fake address is what they're actually gonna get her for.

• 1:21:51Speaker 02

  Yeah, I think the fake address is.

• 1:21:52Tom Bilyeu?

  Because as a reminder to everybody, and this is, okay, so, um, here is my current stance, and this certainly will change as more information comes out. My current stance is, um, whether or not you end up having wide-scale fraud, probably pretty low. The fact that you have wide-scale ballot harvesting that is entirely illegal and should be illegal is your real problem. So this is one of those where, just like most of the things in the economy that are rigged against you are perfectly legal, they are happening just outright in your face. And they are just counting on the fact that you don't understand it. California has rigged the elections in a way that's absolutely horrific. It's sinister from where I'm sitting, but it's legal.

• 1:22:36Tom Bilyeu?

  And so now we've got to go, okay, well, this bad thing that is legal, should we be pushing for policy change? Will we even be able to get policy change, given that this is effectively a one-party state? Um, and so that's where, much like I find myself banging the fucking drum to get people to understand that central banking is entirely legal and entirely immoral. I think we have the same thing happening here. You may have a entirely, entirely legal system in California for voting, and it's entirely immoral. And so we should be addressing it on those grounds so that this doesn't derail into the election was stolen, and it derails into, or not derails, but that it stays on the

• 1:23:20Tom Bilyeu?

  track of these elections are being railroaded to one side by creating a system that favors that side. Because, again, this goes back to. The left is far more likely to create policies that people that are, call it low-information voters, or all the way down to homeless and not paying attention at all, that they're going to be incentivized to vote left. And so if you just do ballot harvest versus ballot harvest, and the right is doing their ballot harvesting, the left's doing their ballot harvesting, it is a method of getting votes that is always going to be wildly disproportionate on the left. And so you create the sort of

• 1:24:01Tom Bilyeu?

  election style that is the equivalent of gerrymandering. It's just, it's a thing that we do, but we shouldn't be doing it. It's ridiculous and it's

• 1:24:13Tom Bilyeu?

  creating all these distortion outcomes. Now, I'm building a new mental model for how voting should work. I expect it to be highly contentious. And so as my community here, you guys have never clipped this out of context and sent it around. Of course, but I will thank you as a community that only wants to see my thinking get sharper to join me on this journey as we find the final status here. But I think it needs to look something like this. Voting shouldn't just be universal. It's probably not going to break along the lines of pay tax, doesn't pay tax, but it probably should break along the lines of something like, if you are receiving benefits

• 1:24:56Tom Bilyeu?

  to a certain amount within a given voting period, that you are ineligible to vote. And so you can always get your way back out of that and get back into the eligible voting pool by not drawing on resources. Because what ends up happening is you're drawing resources and now you have a financial incentive to continue to vote for more of those, which creates politicians having an incentive to get you to draw more benefits, which becomes a bigger drag on the economy, which puts us in the populist moment because it creates that K-shaped, it breaks the economy, which also creates the incentive for the people to understand the financial structure. Be like, oh, you're going to steal my money through inflation? Well, fuck you. Then I'm just gonna do this like hyper-financialized game. I'm gonna beat you with that all day, every day. And so, yeah, go ahead and fuck the rest of the populace.

• 1:25:41Tom Bilyeu?

  I'm gonna be up here doing my thing. That's all. It's so deranging is to be madness. So that's where my initial thinking, though I eagerly await people pointing out the inevitable problems that that may cause, because it really may have not thought through this enough. But that's like my initial swag is like, you can't keep doing what you're doing. Because show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome. So we've created all these incentives and all the insane voting things that we do from ballots being able to come in basically forever. Not the signature not needing to match. That you don't even have to sign. Somebody else can sign on your behalf. The person who can sign on your behalf, I don't think is limited. They can sign like a gazillion

• 1:26:24Tom Bilyeu?

  ballots. That ballot harvesting is legal. So you can go to homeless people and say, hey, here, just fill this out. And then again, I don't know if you can pay them or not. But they'll find ways to be able to incentivize them. Even if it's just, hey, come in and this have a fun time in this community center or whatever. So all of that to me is just pure madness. We've got to break those incentives. So that's my initial thinking.

• 1:26:50Speaker 02

  All right, Argentina.

• 1:26:52Tom Bilyeu?

  Really? Nobody in chats like that's fucking lunatic?

• 1:26:54Speaker 02

  We had this conversation on Monday.

• 1:26:56Tom Bilyeu?

  No, we didn't.

• 1:26:56Speaker 02

  Yeah, we had.

• 1:26:57Tom Bilyeu?

  I have never said those words out loud ever before.

• 1:26:59Speaker 02

  We literally talked about California voting on Monday.

• 1:27:02Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, but I'd never said that I'm thinking that we should make it based on you don't. If you've taken money from the government that you can't do it.

• 1:27:08Speaker 02

  That you can't vote?

• 1:27:09Tom Bilyeu?

  That you can't vote. Yeah, I've never said that before.

• 1:27:11Speaker 02

  Oh, no.

• 1:27:11Tom Bilyeu?

  I've literally never said those words out loud.

• 1:27:13Speaker 02

  But no one mentioned anything about that specifically. Well, you talked about institutionalized people shouldn't vote. So I mean, it's.

• 1:27:18Tom Bilyeu?

  Obviously, I can't believe that was controversial.

• 1:27:20Speaker 02

  Obviously.

• 1:27:21Tom Bilyeu?

  That, that, that is fascinating. I would love to follow. Hey, this person is so mentally incompetent that we've had to institutionalize them. But I bet they'll pick a good candidate.

• 1:27:30Speaker 02

  Let's just go back to you have to own land to vote. You know, that would really solve it. Then no one's voting. That's it. That's what it really comes down to. Like, you have to have a certain because if you say you have to pay taxes, that's gonna eliminate the bottom 50%, right?

• 1:27:41Tom Bilyeu?

  Be part of the solution, not part of the problem. This is where you're saying something sarcastically. So instead, go, let me tell you why, being a landowner, or Tom, let me tell you why putting that kind of restriction on who can vote is a mistake. Then walk me through. You know me. I'm like, I'm trying to get to a solution. And so we can argue, the solution I want to get to doesn't make sense, or we can argue, the way that I want to get there doesn't make sense. I'm super open. I really want a middle class that thrives. And so, uh, to get there, I'm saying, you have to diffuse the economic bomb. I can walk people through the cause and effect logic of why I think the way that we're doing it now creates the economic effect I just did. Maybe speed ran it too fast, but the, the big beats are there.

• 1:28:23Tom Bilyeu?

  And so we can go, but when we start like being sarcastic about landowners, which by the way, when the constitution was written, it wasn't. So what ended up happening was the founding fathers could not get the states to agree. And so they said, uh, whatever in your state qualifies you to vote for the largest, um, member, uh, group. So like, I think they were thinking Congress versus Senate kind of thing. So whatever allows you to vote for that, a person in that big group qualifies you to vote at the national level. Now, they well knew that the vast majority of states, it was landowners, but it wasn't everywhere. And very quickly, states start dropping the landowner thing.

• 1:29:06Tom Bilyeu?

  Now, when you ask, why did they want people to be landowners? It's actually very, it very logical in my stance. You own a piece of the country, therefore you're likely to vote for the thing that's in the interest of people who own a piece of this country. Cool. Now, if we go, yeah, well, it's too hard to become a landowner. So that's gonna create this gentry class. We don't like that. Okay, great, but don't lose sight of what we're trying to do, which is you need to be invested in the country. And so now it becomes, okay, what do we consider investment in the country? And so then it, well, an easy one is you're paying taxes. And I would say, well, 50% of Americans don't pay any meaningful tax whatsoever. And so, given that, that's like maybe a messy debate.

• 1:29:50Tom Bilyeu?

  We probably don't go down that route, though I get the energy there. What if instead, we just go, okay, you're not drawing off the system? Because drawing off the system means you're financially incentivizing yourself to keep drawing off the system, to vote for things that will give you more. That's a, it's just economically deranging, just by the mechanisms of economies. That's always gonna result in the situation that we're in now, K-shaped economy. People hate each other, screaming towards revolution. So from a cause and effect perspective, you can take that one off the table. But that is what we're doing now. And so it's like, okay, well, it's not that, Tom, because of X, Y, Z reason. Great, what is it? Now, if the argument is, no, everything is working perfectly now, I'll cycle you back to economically, it's broken. So we know we have a problem.

• 1:30:36Tom Bilyeu?

  And if we can't agree that we have an economic problem, then it's like, okay, we understand each other, we just disagree. And then I move on to, okay, I'm never gonna get support from Drew. Drew's never gonna get support from me, which is fine. Now at least we understand each other. But it's like, when we eject out of the conversation by just going, well, let's just make everybody landowners, which I know is not your real pitch, then we miss out on, every time I push you on stuff like this, you're really insightful. And so it's like, I don't wanna see you eject out on the easy one, when you could really like, show me where I'm going wrong.

• 1:31:10Speaker 02

  This is a circular conversation, and I feel like I have 15 minutes to cover four topics. So I would much rather, yeah, that's where the intention is. I would much rather go to the other topics than

• 1:31:21Tom Bilyeu?

  All right, let's go.

• 1:31:21Speaker 02

  restart a conversation that we previously had, that's gonna have 75% of the same points. Cause I do wanna talk about Argentina, because they were down bad, and we did the currency swap. And people were saying, well, we build them out, and we rescued them, and this, this, and that. And then we ended up making money off of that deal. And then now they're standing on their own two feet. And now they just announced a budget surplus, which everybody around the world thinks that's impossible, but he did it. So I think this is now the, a good North Star to go to, cause I feel like a budget surplus is the first step of defusing the economic bomb.

• 1:31:50Tom Bilyeu?

  No doubt. What, what they've done in Argentina is absolutely spectacular. The fact that you had somebody come in to a country that has spent over 100 years running socialist politics. Policies only to constantly be underwater, be making lives worse for everybody in the country. He comes in as an economist, he lays out exactly the cause and effect that I talk about endlessly on this show. Of all the things that they're going to need to do in Argentina to get things turned around, which largely is just cut your expenses. And if you don't get people off the government dole, largely in the form of just government employees that aren't adding value to the actual economic future of the country. If you don't do that, you will forever drown. And so he comes in, starts slashing government workers.

• 1:32:34Tom Bilyeu?

  And yes, he puts a lot of people out of work, but those people then find their way into the actual productive economy. And the problem is, I think here in America, we have a delusion that people working for the government are in the productive economy. They are not, and so getting as few people working for the government as possible should be the goal. So that you get them in the actual part of the economy that actually does the thing that people say has economic value. And when they say that, they mean you've created a thing I want to buy. I would rather have that thing than my money. And so you want to migrate as many people as you can into that part of the economy. Now they're going to have to compete because for that to work, it's all going to be on merit. And I get a lot of people don't like that and a lot of people don't want to have to get good.

• 1:33:17Tom Bilyeu?

  But when you, as we see by Argentina, when you force people into that, yes, it is a period of hardship. There is no doubt, it's a period of uncertainty. But then they start realizing, oh shit, I'm going to have to actually perform in the productive economy. And do something that's going to move my country forward. And lo and behold, it's actually working. So I am extremely excited to see that somebody's actually able to turn their country around. This has had nothing to do with the fact that I also happen to agree as a matter of philosophy with what he's trying to do. I would perfectly happy to be wrong and see the country turn around and then go, cool. That's the thing that actually works in real life. I want to be on the team of cause and effect, the thing that actually works.

• 1:34:01Tom Bilyeu?

  But what he's pointing out is this actually works and that you can dramatically turn a country around by getting your costs in control. Remember.

• 1:34:09Tom Bilyeu?

  In America, for every dollar, new dollar that we bring in in tax revenue, we spend an additional dollar fifty-eight. You'll never get out from under that. No matter how much you tax billionaires, you can literally tax their wealth at a hundred percent. And if you keep the ratio of every new dollar that we bring in, we spend an additional dollar fifty-eight, then you're going to end up in a problem. Solve that problem first. Solve that problem first. We have way bigger government than we had even ten years ago. So this is not like some thing, well, we've been doing it for a hundred years. And how could we even know what America would look like if we weren't doing this? We didn't do this recently. So we've got to get the expenses down and letting them be our guide is wonderful.

• 1:34:54Speaker 02

  This is a perfect segue because the social security trust fund is on track to run out of money in late twenty thirty-two. It's trustee say.

• 1:34:59Tom Bilyeu?

  That is so soon.

• 1:35:00Speaker 02

  Would social security count as not being able to vote?

• 1:35:04Tom Bilyeu?

  Social security, I'm open to that. I'm very open to that. I need to really.

• 1:35:09Speaker 02

  That would decimate the mega class because that's every senior citizen.

• 1:35:11Tom Bilyeu?

  It depends on, I mean, it is what it is. So this is one where oftentimes people, what was the one that Brutus Lugo thought he had me on? Ah, fuck, I forget.

• 1:35:21Speaker 03

  Was this today?

• 1:35:21Tom Bilyeu?

  What's that?

• 1:35:22Speaker 03

  Was it today? I can pull it back up.

• 1:35:23Tom Bilyeu?

  No, no, it was yesterday.

• 1:35:24Speaker 03

  Okay.

• 1:35:24Tom Bilyeu?

  Or Monday. So there is, I would need to think through it because you've paid into a system and you're taking back out what you paid in. So maybe that one doesn't count and maybe that is you just getting, it's basically a forced retirement plan.

• 1:35:39Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:35:40Tom Bilyeu?

  Now it's a forced retirement plan that requires a Ponzi scheme. And so the problem that we have now is you really do have to extend the retirement age. That's bad news, I get it. But when the system was put in place, it was actually designed for most people dying while they were still working. So the average age, average life expectancy was lower than the age of retirement. And I would just say that's probably what you got to go back to is something like that. So if the average age of life is seventy-eight, it's like, well, average age of retirement might be pushing eighty. So we're not going to start there. I want everybody to freak out. You're going to work your way there and see how we do.

• 1:36:21Tom Bilyeu?

  But that is, you, you just, with the birth rates that we have, you put yourself in a situation where you find yourself desperate. And so you start bringing a bunch of immigrants in and you tell yourself to lie that immigrants are net positive, which they are not. And so you end up with them. Further exacerbating the problem. And so it all becomes bad very fast.

• 1:36:44Speaker 02

  Yeah. What is a social security like solution? Cause it is, I've been paying until you've been paying it like we've all paid into this thing that we thought we were gonna get. And then now nobody's gonna get it.

• 1:36:53Tom Bilyeu?

  Either have to grow your economy at a freakish level and reduce your spending. Or you have to raise the retirement age. The, the sort of great news is there's nothing fancy. Like you, you have to pay the people later or less. So I guess that's another one. You could just reduce the amount that people are getting paid in their social security. But you could also means test it. Hey, I know you paid into the system, but you're actually doing great. So sorry, no more social security for you. These are the tough options. But the reality is you put in place a system that cannot support itself. It works for a while, but it doesn't work forever.

• 1:37:34Speaker 02

  That's interesting because the life expectancy rate now is 79 years average between both males and females. So then you'll have to raise the retirement age 85.

• 1:37:45Tom Bilyeu?

  Eighty, eighty-one. Yeah. Cause I think it used to be two years over the average life expectancy. Now here's the bad news. People now are living longer, but they're fucking sick for like a lot of the end of their life. So I think you're going to run into just a factual problem. And this is where I always expect this to be more unpopular. Maybe I just don't say it loud enough or enough. But I think families should be taking care of them, their own family. And so this should not become a government burden. And I think a big part of the psychology of Americans, because we've been prosperous for so long, is that I don't need a family. I've got the government. And I think that is the absolute wrong lesson to teach.

• 1:38:29Tom Bilyeu?

  Now that has implications for men and women as well. So that's gonna get uncomfortable real fast. But nonetheless, I think it's true. I, uh, people need to think of themselves. I need to be self-sufficient. One of the ways that I, um, protect myself is by having a strong family unit and a strong social group. And that may be religious, uh, but you've got to push that burden down to the individual instead of trying to solve everything at the government level.

• 1:38:58Speaker 02

  And it gets even better because now boomers are never gonna die because they just came up with a new apetogenic restoration, restoration drug. That is gonna allow them to live forever. So not only are they gonna bankrupt social security, they're gonna live to 145. And it's only gonna be available for people in between the ages of like 45 and 70. And we're just gonna kill all the young people off.

• 1:39:17Tom Bilyeu?

  The good or the bad news there is that, uh, they will find themselves having to work again at, you know, whatever 115. So, um, this, this is an unmitigated good. I hope that this is real. We'll find out. Um, all of this stuff should be taken with a grain of salt, but this one has me very excited. And so their estimation is that they'll be able to shave like 10 years of aging off of people within the next year. We'll see. Again, this hasn't proven, but when you look at what aging actually is, so again, you live in a deterministic universe. So when you look at what aging actually is, it is the, um, de-differentiation of cells. So a cell should be hyper differentiated. An eye cell should be an eye cell.

• 1:40:02Tom Bilyeu?

  Heart cell should be a heart cell. When you start aging, there's something called methylation markers that tell your DNA what part of the DNA strand to unwind. Because your entire body, every cell is encoded in every bit of DNA. And then you put these little methyl markers and you say, I'm actually an eye cell. And so that part unspools and the little readers come along and read and go, oh, cool. I'm an eye cell and they rebuild that eye cell. Those methylation markers get put in the wrong place as you age. And so it's like, I'm an eye heart cell. And so you're like, wait, what? And so what that manifests as is like wrinkly skin, poor performing kidneys, weakening of the heart muscle, all of that stuff. And so if

• 1:40:43Tom Bilyeu?

  this works, what it does is it goes into the, um, those epigenetic markers. And it's like, nah, bitch, you really are an eye cell. You really are a heart cell. And the methylation markers go back to where they should be. And it's like, cool, I know exactly what kind of cell I am again. And if it works, oh my God, this could have the kind of staggering results that we've seen in obesity from GLP one inhibitors, you could see from an anti-aging perspective. That shit would be wild, man. That would be wild.

• 1:41:16Speaker 02

  Do you think that people will live forever?

• 1:41:18Tom Bilyeu?

  No, but I think that, I mean, eventually, yes, but at that point, I think we're synthetic creatures.

• 1:41:23Speaker 02

  Yeah, well, okay, forever.

• 1:41:24Tom Bilyeu?

  In the near future, like us.

• 1:41:26Speaker 02

  You think like 150, like what's your upward bound?

• 1:41:29Tom Bilyeu?

  If you stay healthy and you're, let's say,

• 1:41:35Tom Bilyeu?

  if you're under 40, it's basically a guarantee. If you're under 60, you've got a real shot. That in the next, call it 10 to 15 years, with the assistance of AI, that you will be able to radically extend life expectancy by doing the following. For every year of time that goes by, medicine adds, let's say, 1.1 or 1.2 years to your life expectancy, meaning your life expectancy is always getting 10 or 20% longer with every day that passes. And so now all of a sudden, it's like, oh shit, like, it's not like all diseases are cured, but now if average life

• 1:42:16Tom Bilyeu?

  expectancy is 78, all of a sudden it's 79, 80, 81, 82. And so it's like, as long as it becomes from 82 to 83 faster than I age, from 60 to 61, I'm never going to hit it. And so then it becomes you only die of trauma. Now, I think that that will have its own set of problems, but I do think that we in.

• 1:42:43Tom Bilyeu?

  I'm sort of maybe the bubble generation, but I think that for sure, people that are 40 and under can expect their lives to be radically extended, that people would think you died way too young if you don't hit 120. It'll be something like that.

• 1:42:57Speaker 02

  Got you, got you. All right. A special shout out to Paleo Valley. We've been having the beef sticks on the table all day. If you guys haven't seen them, this is something that us at Impact there eat personally. I'd be tearing them tayrahaki joints up. And I know you and Lisa are like big Paleo fans.

• 1:43:12Tom Bilyeu?

  Ultra hardcore about Paleo Valley. These guys know how we feel about them. Lisa's gut is so bad. She has to be so particular about what she eats. And this has been one of the few things for on the go that she can take with her. They're absolutely fantastic. Delicious. They hit the spot in terms of if you have sensitivities, that this is one that you should definitely try. It's grass fed. They don't have junk or fillers. It's all natural ingredients. They also come in a ton of flavors, by the way. There's a URL that should be in the notes that you can click. So take a look at these guys. You can get 30 of these sticks for just $36. So they're super affordable, delicious, good for you. Yeah, I can't recommend these guys highly enough and

• 1:43:54Tom Bilyeu?

  am really, really grateful for the support that Paleo Valley has given us, especially me. I know we touch on a lot of crazy things on the show. And I'm grateful for what they've extended to us. So yes, for sure. These are people that I stand behind big time.

• 1:44:07Speaker 02

  And truth, that was like, Drew, when's the last time you had Paleo Valley? Like literally, they have them in a break room. Like I'd be sneaking and tearing them up. I'd be eating Lisa's. Don't tell Lisa though.

• 1:44:14Tom Bilyeu?

  All right. You guys are dope. I really appreciate your time. I'm doing an AI masterclass tomorrow, this Thursday, June 11th at 1pm Pacific. The link to sign up is in the description. I hope you guys will join me. I'm going to teach you how to do a business using AI. It is a magical time right now where the human is still extremely necessary. And yet the AI is an incredible efficiency tool that is making things possible that were not previously. These classes are very popular. They're hard hitting. They're going to give you a lot of information that you're going to be able to use. So I hope you will join me. It is free, free, free. It is tomorrow, Thursday, the 11th at 1pm Pacific time. All right. See you there. All right. Peace. Let's talk about a pattern that is guaranteed to be killing your progress.

• 1:44:57Tom Bilyeu?

  You know what you need to do. You need consistent nutrition. We all do. You need vitamins, probiotics, greens. We all know that we should be doing more of it. When your morning gets chaotic, you skip it. When you travel, you skip it. When your routine breaks, everything tends to break and that inconsistency compounds against you every single day. AG1 is designed to solve the execution problem. One scoop, eight ounces of water and you're done. You're getting 75 plus ingredients, vitamins and minerals, pre and probiotics, nutrient dense superfoods, everything that used to require six, seven different supplements and perfect planning now happens in one drink that takes about 30 seconds to make. Right now, AG1

• 1:45:39Tom Bilyeu?

  is giving you $87 worth of free gifts with your first subscription. You get a welcome kit, travel packs, vitamin D3 plus K2 and flavor samples. Click the link in the show notes or visit drinkag1.com/impact to claim this offer.