Dems Call for Massive Regulation on AI | The Tom Bilyeu Show

Hey everybody, Tom Bilyeu here. On today’s episode of The Tom Bilyeu Show, we’re diving headfirst into an absolutely wild 24 hours for the economy, tech sector, and political landscape. The conversation focused on one of the most dramatic market crashes in history, driven by fears of an anti-AI regulatory wave and a rapidly shifting political environment. The S&P 500 just posted its worst raw dollar loss ever, with tech giants like Nvidia losing hundreds of billions in value and almost $3 trillion being wiped out in a single day. We’ll break down the perfect storm behind the AI sell-off, from public backlash over data center expansions to mounting corporate debt and the looming threat of government intervention. A key theme that emerged was how investor sentiment has been rocked by the possibility that the AI bubble may have finally burst—raising questions about Anthropic’s IPO, the future of US tech competitiveness, and what slowing growth really means for workers, jobs, and the broader economy. The discussion explored the latest political fallout, including major fractures inside the Republican Party, the fallout from the midterms, and why discontented voters are abandoning old allegiances. We’ll also unpack California’s controversial housing initiatives, new national debates over the future of healthcare, and the latest updates on international financial crises that could carry lessons for Americans. Several points were raised, including how the AI race is heightening tensions between the US and China, why values and narrative matter as much as policy, and what rising activism, regulatory shifts, and uncertainty mean for your investments and your future. Stay tuned—this conversation is packed with hard-hitting analysis on markets, politics, culture, and what it all might mean for you in the months ahead. What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here: Want my help starting a business? Join me here inside Zero To Founder https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show Sign up for my AI Masterclass: AI Masterclass https://tombilyeu.com/ai-masterclass?utm_campaign=Live%20Masterclass&utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=evergreen Follow Me: Instagram:https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok:https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter:https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu Thank you to our sponsors: Tailor Brands: Check out Tailor Brands to launch your business starting at $0 + state fees: https://bit.ly/TailorBrandsSept Quince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpod Quo: ​​Try for free PLUS get 20% off your first 6 months at https://quo.com/impact Ketone IQ: Visit https://ketone.com/IMPACT for 30% OFF your subscription order PLUS receive a free gift with your second shipment—or find Ketone-IQ at CVS stores nationwide and get $5 off your first 6-pack for a limited time! Shopify: Sign up for your free trial period at https://shopify.com/impact See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Tom Bilyeu?

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• 0:45Tom Bilyeu?

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• 1:09Speaker 01

  In a world where everyone drives distracted, danger lurks ahead. Drivers swerve, collisions litter the shoulders. Chances are taken and lives lost. They're driven by a compulsion, a compulsion to respond.

• 1:29Speaker 01

  Sounds like a movie. Unfortunately, it's our reality. Eyes on the road, not on your phone. A message from the Virginia DMV.

• 1:37Tom Bilyeu?

  Ooh, Democrats, anti-AI push is going much further and faster than most people realize. And a lot of people are blaming yesterday's biblical market crash on fears that the Democrats are going to cause the AI bubble to burst. The real question is, has it already? The S and P 500 just recorded its worst raw dollar loss in history. You cannot overstate how brutal yesterday was on the markets. A mystery seller is trying to dump $500 million in data center debt. And the AI sell-off has analysts projecting Anthropic's IPO to drop even further.

• 2:21Tom Bilyeu?

  Those kids are having a rough time. Speaking of a rough time, the fractures in the Republican Party may be worse than people think as JD Vance fires shots at the Iran war and by proxy, Trump, obviously. And rumors begin to fly about Rubio's possible resignation. We're going to talk about that. California has a brilliant plan to make housing more unaffordable. Wait till you hear the genius details on this one. And Russell Brand was convicted of rape and is likely to serve significant time in prison. All of that and more right now on the Tom Bilyeu Show Live. Welcome, everybody. It has been a wild 24 hours.

• 3:03Tom Bilyeu?

  If you are paying attention to the markets at all, you know that we are talking about historic pain and suffering. The S and P 500 posted the largest single day dollar loss in its history. It was bigger than the COVID crash. It was bigger than Liberation Day when Trump slapped erratic tariffs on everything. It was an absolute orgy of losses. If you guys are looking at your screen, there's not enough red to convey what happened yesterday. It was insane. Nvidia alone shed $447 billion of value. And the question is, why?

• 3:45Tom Bilyeu?

  Now, the immediate reaction to the blue tsunami was for the markets to tank. But then they quickly recovered. We talked about that on Wednesday. So what caused yet another absolutely massive reversal? Was this the moment that the AI bubble burst? Or is this something else entirely? I'll put it super simply. This is what happens when the entire world is making one gigantic concentrated bet. And the bet is AI is going to beat the historical trend and just keep going up. Now, I've talked about this. You guys know my feelings. But when you have a party that is openly calling for nationwide moratoriums on data center buildouts,

• 4:29Tom Bilyeu?

  and they come slamming back into power in a big way, by the way, that nobody is going to be able to ignore. Everyone who has gorged themselves on debt, everyone who believed that, hey, we can just keep going. There's more left on this bull run. They suddenly realized that there's even more trouble ahead than they were already dealing with. And make no mistake, AI was already dealing with a lot before this happened. There are so many headwinds against AI right now, even before the midterms, up to and including the fact that the public is, in my opinion, foolishly, but they are largely against AI. If memory serves, the number is 56%.

• 5:10Tom Bilyeu?

  56% of people said the data centers were a major or crucial reason for how they were casting their vote. And then you look at the results and you realize that people are feeling a very strong sentiment against AI. Both Texas and Ohio are areas with a massive amount of data center development. And both of them flipped convincingly blue. What happened in Texas is absolutely shocking. Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa promised a moratorium on new buildouts until lawmakers enact stronger protections, read more regulations. And in Ohio, Sherrod Brown campaigned hard against data center expansion.

• 5:52Tom Bilyeu?

  CNN has openly said that the Texas result was a key reason for the sell-off that we're seeing in the marketplace. Since you've got Google, Meta, Oracle, and OpenAI, all with massive data center buildout investments in the area. Now, the people with the actual power to block permits are now overwhelmingly in power. And the very states where all the capex is going are the states that they control. And if investors are paying any attention at all, they know we're looking at an increased probability that in 2028, we're going to see a return to the kinds of Biden-era policies that ultimately will make US AI less and less competitive.

• 6:36Tom Bilyeu?

  Because ultimately, if we return to that style, the government just nakedly wants to control all of AI. When a government controls an area, you can expect it to go far, far worse. We do not want to live in a world where the government is in control of AI. Now, superintelligence is a separate thing, and we can certainly have that discussion. But with all of that looming in the background, all of the sentiment shift that's happening in public, all of the woes around debt and just the market headwinds that have been faced, the market has begun to sort of basically decide which companies they think are going to win and which ones they think are going to lose.

• 7:18Tom Bilyeu?

  So for instance, Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple initially rose 5% to 7%. And it's actually pretty interesting logic. So the thinking goes that a slower AI build-out because of the public backlash, because of the likelihood of regulations that slow everything down, that means that these companies that have been getting drunk on debt and just absolutely demolishing their free cash flow, they're going to go back to having fatter margins. And obviously, investors like that idea, certainly in the short term. However, six data center builders got absolutely hammered, dropping 17% to 23% on the same day. And the losses did not stop there.

• 8:02Tom Bilyeu?

  It really was a bloodbath. The S and P 500 fell 4.36%. The NASDAQ dropped 5.52% and slid into full-blown correction territory at more than 10% below the record it had set back just in October, which is only a few days ago. The Dow also bled out, shedding more than 1,800 points. That wiped out the entire post-midterm rally from the day before, which was very short-lived. And that has been the Dow's, that day before it re-crashed, that was the Dow's best session in a year and a half. So really briefly, it looked like, oh, this is going to be good. And then, nope, psych, just kidding.

• 8:46Tom Bilyeu?

  It became an absolute hemorrhage of value. The damage has been pretty concentrated in tech, with Nvidia falling an absolutely staggering 9%. Broadcom lost 10, Oracle dropped 7. The main conductor semiconductor ETF had its worst day since back in COVID, March of 2020. And the magnificent 7 alone gave back more than a trillion dollars. When you put all of this together, it was nearly $3 trillion in losses in a single day. $3 trillion in a single day, man. This is, at a raw dollar level, it is literally unprecedented.

• 9:29Tom Bilyeu?

  Now, when you take it as percentages, it's not so. When you really start drilling into how big the markets have gotten, we have seen bigger percentage loss days. But in a raw dollar term, this is absolutely historic. It is a terrible election for markets. That is becoming abundantly clear, but AI really was already in trouble. So to ignore the effects of the blue tsunami would be ignorant. But it is not the only thing that's going against AI. So to put it all in the lap of politics would be a mistake. There is just way too much debt and not enough revenue. That that is just the hard reality to be faced. And quite frankly, there's not enough power.

• 10:14Tom Bilyeu?

  I'm working on a deep dive about all of this now. I hope it'll be coming out next week. There are a lot of things working against AI at this moment. But remember, the entire world is betting on it. So whether you love or hate AI, this is going to be a very bumpy road if these losses continue. If this was a very rapid bursting of the bubble that only continues to go, there is going to be a lot of pain and suffering that has a huge knock on effect. If you look at somebody like,

• 10:45Tom Bilyeu?

  oh, God, I'm blinking. Peter Schiff, there we go, Peter Schiff. If you look at Peter Schiff now, listen, Peter Schiff is always saying that the sky is falling in fairness. But he was saying, if people really understood what's going on right now, that they would be absolutely flooding into gold because this is likely to create the downward spiral in the market that's going to cause a ton of people to get laid off, that we are going to find ourselves in an actual, true, technical recession. He and many others, myself included, believe that we've been in a stealth recession for a while. But now with what's going on in the AI market, now with what's going on with all of the debt, the slowdown in the ability to get power, and now just an obvious regulatory wall that we are rushing towards. It could spread, it could get worse, something to pay attention to.

• 11:30Tom Bilyeu?

  Nobody can see the future, but just in terms of what is the market reacting to? They're reacting to all of this. And the Neo clouds are a real point of potential problems coming down the road. If you look at them, they are financed with debt against revenue that just has not shown up yet. Guys, this is the historical trend. This is how these things play out. So you get, everybody gets so exuberant because the technology is real. Remember, none of this is claiming that, oh, AI is just not a real thing. It's going to go away. AI is not going anywhere. The question is, is it going to go somewhere here in the US? Is it going to go somewhere in China? What are the timeframes? But it will, even if it never made another improvement.

• 12:15Tom Bilyeu?

  It is going to continue to be integrated deeper and deeper into the economy, deeper and deeper into our lives. So that is precisely part of the problem is people can see how real it is. And because it is that real, valuations have basically just run far past what the actual growth can support. And therein lies the problem. And what the energy wall coming in 2027 is looking like should also lead anybody to expect, and honestly, it's a very reasonable read, is that the market was just looking for a reason to have this correction.

• 12:53Tom Bilyeu?

  They're staring at the ability for Oracle, for instance, to get the power brought up in New Mexico. That didn't happen. We're looking at things that Elon Musk has been saying for a while, which is that the real issue is going to be power. The parallel that I've been trying to draw between the US and China is that China may be losing the chip game right now, but they've been winning the power game for a very long time. And if we keep making chips only to store them in a warehouse, which is real, that is happening right now. You have companies like Amazon that are like, shit, I guess we have to keep buying all this stuff. But we don't have the power to turn it on. We don't have the data centers that we need. Even if we had the data centers, would the data centers be able to come online?

• 13:37Tom Bilyeu?

  And so we have this timing mismatch of everybody just trying to go way too fast. And the midterms basically handed anybody that was looking for a reason to start backing off, it gave them that reason. Now, what does this mean going forward? Well, it certainly is a hammer blow to Anthropic's IPO valuation. That is for sure. The listing was supposed to land somewhere around $2 trillion. That got revised down to 1.5 trillion. And now that number looks like it is going to slip even further, dropping all the way down to something expected to be closer to 1 trillion. Luxury brands are not charging you more for better cashmere.

• 14:22Tom Bilyeu?

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• 15:06Tom Bilyeu?

  Get free shipping on your order and 365 day returns. It's now also available in Canada and the UK. And when Quince asks where you heard about them, make sure you tell them that it was on Impact Theory. That's the best way to support the show. I'll call you back. That's the most expensive sentence in business. You mean it when you say it, but by the time you remember, they've already found somebody else. That's why today's episode is brought to you by QUO, spelled Q U O. The business phone that's built so you never miss a call or a customer. QUO writes up your calls for you and one click turns any of them into a task with a name and a due date. The follow up actually happens instead of living in your head. When you can't pick up at all, QUO's agent does.

• 15:51Tom Bilyeu?

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• 17:18Tom Bilyeu?

  Just head to pipedrive.com/impact to get started. Again, that's pipedrive.com/impact and you can be up and running in minutes. On October 15th, Investor Day, revenue for Anthropic came in at 16.8 billion for the quarter. That was up 45%. The quarter before, though, had more than doubled. So the rate at which they're growing is slowing down dramatically. And that is giving investors massive pause. Investors have read it as a decelerization and that's making them say, hey, are we going to value this company in the same way that we were previously? Now, again, a slowdown in AI is actually good.

• 18:03Tom Bilyeu?

  Getting people to chill on the debt is actually good. But the rate of the unwind in the markets is the thing that's going to matter. And yesterday was very fast. Now, if we rebound or normalize or hold steady, then maybe we'll be able to metabolize this. But if it keeps going, this is definitely going to be a problem because so much money is tied up in that debt. If the build outs are unable to continue and the revenue doesn't come in any faster and we start getting legislation that pushes back on the AI development, you increase the time mismatch, which has been the concern now for a very long time. When you look at the historical trends, it is always the time mismatch.

• 18:48Tom Bilyeu?

  And what's happened right now exacerbates the time mismatch and the market is saying, hey, therein lies a much bigger problem. We are racing towards a wall. So the question is, did the blue wave basically take a wall that already existed and just ram investors up against that wall a little bit faster? They certainly didn't invent the wall, but oh, boy, people just smashed headlong into it. So bit of breath holding for anybody that is exposed significantly to the markets. I hope you guys have been heeding anybody's warnings to have plenty of money in cash, to not be in a situation where you need to get your money out in a couple of years. Because this is the kind of thing that will be unknown in terms of how long it will take people to bounce back.

• 19:33Tom Bilyeu?

  So yeah, buckle up.

• 19:37Speaker 02

  I want to bring people back to a year ago when OpenAI and SoftBank announced their $500 billion rollout for the AI infrastructure. And Elon retweeted, they don't actually have the money. SoftBank has well under $10 billion secured to have that on good authority. So when these things are coming out about a mystery seller trying to dump the 500 million, some speculation is that SoftBank is the one dumping that. Does it matter who the mystery seller is or seller, the fact that they're selling is the thing?

• 20:04Tom Bilyeu?

  The fact that they're selling is the thing, it's going to matter a lot more. If it ends up being somebody that people thought was solvent and doing well, and they're doing a distressed sale, that will add to the narrative shift. So it could end up being more problematic when we find out who's actually behind it. But it is a massive cooling off of the inflow of capital into AI. And when everybody was looking at, when is the bubble going to burst? What is that going to look like? The whole answer was always around, are they going to be able to continue to secure debt? This is something that Ray Dalio has been banging on for a while. He's like, listen, this always comes down to whether they're going to be able to service their debt, whether they'll be able to raise more capital.

• 20:49Tom Bilyeu?

  And the second that that stops, when people have to start selling in order to service their debt, that is the mechanism by which the bubble pops. So once you know the mechanism, then it's like, well, you need only look at the signs. And boy, oh, boy, are we seeing the signs now that people are saying, not only do I not want to keep adding to my debt balance, but I want to start selling some of the debt that I have. So you are now looking at the beginning of that thing that will make it difficult, barring something new that I can't see right now, make it very difficult for people to reverse course and say, actually, no, we do want to pour more money into AI. And now that you have that happening, you run headlong into what I've been banging the table about,

• 21:31Tom Bilyeu?

  which is the mismatch in timing between revenue and debt service. So yeah, if you can't rely on fresh debt to deal with your old debt, then you have to start selling. That puts price pressure on everything and the market just keeps going down, down, down. So that is the very known risk. I don't, nobody's unclear about the fact that that was always the thing. It was just, how long is the party going to last before we have to start dealing with the reality? And the fact that we haven't even gotten to the Anthropic IPO, and this is still already happening, like, that's rough. Let's say that the IPO for Anthropic comes in under a trillion dollars. That would be startling.

• 22:12Tom Bilyeu?

  That would be, I'm not even sure that you won't get that if they come in at a trillion dollars. So if they fall off the 1.5, I think you already have a sign that the party is over. If they come in below a trillion dollars, yeesh, that's a sign that we're, we're peeling the faces of people that have passed out in their own vomit up off the floor. And we're already farther down the bad road than we thought we were.

• 22:38Speaker 02

  I kind of want to go down further, like through the worst case scenario. So let's say they do fall in under a trillion, they don't hit that number. What happened, like what do you project happens? Does that mean that we are now in a bear market? The markets will go down, the economy is going to tank because we've been all betting it on AI. What's kind of the worst case scenarios if this trend continues?

• 22:57Tom Bilyeu?

  Well, if the trend continues, you are looking at a,

• 23:03Tom Bilyeu?

  companies are going to start consolidating, some are just going to straight go out of business. You're going to see more pullbacks from the market. You're going to see people sell and try to get out from under this. Everybody's going to scramble to try to figure out how much AI debt they're exposed to. We're going to find out the pension funds, the insurance funds, how exposed to bad AI debt are they? In the private credit markets, if private credit implodes, now you're in for a real dire time. Because what will happen is as that pullback happens, as valuations go down, these companies are going to start laying people off as you start getting massive layoffs. You start getting companies that fold, that puts a massive strain on the actual real economy.

• 23:45Tom Bilyeu?

  As manufacturing jobs that we were counting on, based on the AI build out, which is basically the only part of the real economy that's working right now. That will be absolutely brutal from a jobs perspective. In fact, we're supposed to get the October jobs report today. So I'll be very curious to see what happens, not today, but I'll be curious to see what happens to the revisions. Remember, the initial report is almost always bullshit, so keep that in mind. But I'll expect that to be revised down and then I'll expect if the trend continues, I will expect to see more and more job losses. Already, as a reminder, consumers have been pulling back on spending now for months.

• 24:24Tom Bilyeu?

  So what you're seeing as a reaction is a rapid pullback in terms of, okay, that's like future casting. Now, what you're seeing right now is the Fed already going, ah, maybe we're not going to be hiking in December. Because you want to talk about something that will cool inflation. If people are losing their jobs, then obviously there's going to be a lot less money sloshing around in the economy, which is going to be deflationary. But remember, crisis-led deflation is bad. And so this would be crisis-led deflation, which is not the thing that you're looking for. So yeah, if it were to unwind rapidly, you're looking at a recession.

• 25:08Tom Bilyeu?

  How deep is the only question? You're looking at job loss, which obviously is no bueno. And you're looking at job losses right to the manufacturing sector. The one thing that typically speaks right to middle-class America. And so not the place that you want to see a bunch of jobs being lost.

• 25:27Speaker 02

  The job reports numbers did come out this morning. The US economy adds 165,000 jobs in October, well above the expectations of 64,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1, below expectations of 4.2. September's job numbers were also revised higher by plus 31,000 jobs. Expectations for a December rate-

• 25:45Tom Bilyeu?

  Wait, wait, wait, September jobs were revised up? That's interesting, very surprised by that, very surprised by that. So yeah, it'll be interesting to look at that. That is not what I would have expected. I would have expected September's job numbers to be revised down. So I'll be interested to see what sector is actually driving that up. And if it is a sector that now is getting pummeled, then you can really expect to see that number come back down on the other side. But if it's in an area that's less or not at all exposed to the AI trade, that would certainly be very interesting.

• 26:20Speaker 02

  Yeah, we shall keep an eye on it. Quick thing, we were talking about Elon earlier.

• 26:27Tom Bilyeu?

  Sorry, maybe Ryan, can someone find out where the 164K jobs are coming from? Like, where's the surprise? So we were expecting 64K, got a lot more than that theoretically. I would love to know where those are coming. So sorry, you were going to say?

• 26:46Speaker 02

  No, Tesla, really quick hit, is winding down the production of the Cybercap.

• 26:52Speaker 02

  Or the Cybertruck, sorry, the Cybertruck at the Gigafactory, so that way they can make more room for the Cybercap. So the X is done, the S is done, it's now just the 3s, the Ys, and the Cybercaps. Yeah, shout out to the Tesla owners.

• 27:08Tom Bilyeu?

  Do you think that's good news or bad news for Tesla?

• 27:12Speaker 02

  I just think they're reallocating resources.

• 27:14Tom Bilyeu?

  Interesting, I take maybe a slightly more cynical read on that. And I'll say the Cybertruck, I don't know the sales figure, so I could be way off on this. But I have a feeling that the Cybertruck was a miss. The car that the Roadster, the one that can do the flip and all of that, there's a lot of people saying that, listen, that was like a show car. And they probably stripped a bunch of stuff out of that to make it light enough to be able to do that stuff. That charging that gas up is probably a very slow process. So the fact that they were able to do a car that does a kickflip is like a fun novelty engineering thing. But this, I think, is a shift to Tesla basically saying, okay, we're now going to bet on robotics.

• 27:57Tom Bilyeu?

  And robotics is going to be, and don't confuse, the Cybercap is a robot, it's a robot with wheels, but it's still a robot. And we're going to now shift over to robotics. Robotics relies on AI. So the question becomes if AI gets hammered, and basically the US begins to radically turn on AI, what will that mean for Tesla shifting away from more traditional vehicles and now going into robotics? So that's a big question. Obviously, in the long run, I think it's the only real answer. And so it may just be, yeah, it'll be a little bit bumpy in the short term, but over time, this is going to be the right play. But I read this as a sign of somebody who is shifting away from one bet that wasn't working anymore onto something new.

• 28:43Tom Bilyeu?

  And the core question around AI is how quickly can the world metabolize these changes? So I feel very similarly about, this is pure gut reaction, I want to be very clear about that. But my gut reaction is that what's happening here is very similar to what's happening to Google, where Google is in this super weird conundrum, where investors are looking at them going, hey, get it, understand AI, nobody's been more excited than us. However, it's hurting your core business. And as investors, we were expecting you to remain a cash cow. That could help the transition into AI. And instead, what we're getting is a cash cow that's now flipping, and they're going cash flow negative and big and terrifying ways.

• 29:28Tom Bilyeu?

  And their business, their core business, is not growing in the way that we were expecting it to grow. And so now they're growing fears that they're, they had like this position of real stability. That was a huge part of this narrative. That the companies that were the hyperscalers were also the most profitable companies in all of human history, quite literally. And if the very product that we're all doing these massive investments into is eroding your core business faster than it's bringing in new revenue, we now have a problem. And the bad news is that is what's happening by the numbers. It is slowing their growth. It's not like they're not growing, but it's slowing

• 30:12Tom Bilyeu?

  their growth and the revenue is not enough to overcome the debt. Anthropic is still the fastest growing company in human history. You can't let that get lost, but it is a very real thing to say, hold on, hold on. You're growing more slowly. You're so underwater, you can't afford to grow more slowly. If you're going to beat the charges of, hey, there's a historical trend that says there's going to be a mismatch of timing between when you have to service the debt and when the revenue comes in. And yeah, you're growing so fast, maybe you're really going to pull it off. Oh, wait a second. You're not growing that fast anymore. That feels more like this to me is like, okay, cool. We're going to switch over to cyber cab. But what if the cyber cab, the transition into robotic cars

• 30:54Tom Bilyeu?

  just means there are less cars on the road. And so now there are less sales. And if I'm not mistaken, cyber cabs are pretty cheap. So now you're switching away from like, everybody has a car or whatever. I think Americans have more than one car per person. So it's like, what if you go from that model to now a shared model that just generates less revenue? So now it becomes a question of how many robots can you bring on fast enough? How rapidly can the entire economy transition into this new robotics AI economy? Great. 10 years from now, this is going to be the biggest thing ever. But what happens in the next three to five years where that transition is actually a loss of money? Does that create a bigger problem that creates issues that right now we're not fully factoring in?

• 31:39Speaker 02

  That's a good point.

• 31:41Speaker 03

  Oh, sorry.

• 31:42Speaker 02

  No, go.

• 31:42Speaker 03

  I found the number breakdown. It goes manufacturing.

• 31:45Tom Bilyeu?

  This is back to the jobs report.

• 31:46Speaker 03

  Yes. Manufacturing at 19K, transportation and warehousing, 25K, healthcare, 42K. And then this one I have to quantify, but I'll give you the.

• 31:54Tom Bilyeu?

  Healthcare is how much?

• 31:55Speaker 03

  42K.

• 31:57Tom Bilyeu?

  Jesus Christ. Unfortunately, you want to talk one place where I don't read that as good news? That would be in healthcare. Welcome to your prices going up, but okay?

• 32:04Speaker 03

  And then professional, well, by the way, healthcare includes like hospitals and stuff. So it's like all of it. And then professional and business services.

• 32:10Tom Bilyeu?

  When you say all of it, sorry, you're, I do not internalize that in a positive way. So what jobs in healthcare do you want me to read as they aren't going to raise your prices?

• 32:19Speaker 03

  Well, what it says here is hospitals gain 16K, healthcare.

• 32:23Tom Bilyeu?

  But when a hospital gains 16K, is it doctors or is it administrators?

• 32:27Speaker 03

  I'm just reading off the article.

• 32:29Tom Bilyeu?

  See, that's the bad news. So my.

• 32:30Speaker 03

  But it's from BLS, so.

• 32:31Tom Bilyeu?

  Fuck BLS. I don't give a fuck. What I'm saying is that when healthcare adds new jobs, I'm going to make the assumption, it's an assumption, but I'm going to make the assumption that those are largely administrators. So they are not things that are going to drive healthcare costs down. They are things that are likely to drive healthcare costs up. Now, I could be wrong about that. We'd need to go deeper, but I do not immediately read that as this is a good thing.

• 32:56Speaker 03

  And then 70K professional and business services, but I want to clarify what that means because it's very vague. So the breakdown, when I asked what those are, is split into three different things. You have management of companies and enterprises, which is about 9K, administrative and support and waste management, about 28K, professional, scientific and technical services, 33. So that's going to be your IT. The one with administrative, that's going to be a lot of temp jobs, travel agencies, garbage and remediation services. And then management of company and enterprises are going to be regional offices, holding companies, things like that.

• 33:29Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay. It's going to be very interesting to see if we're hurt by the hospital or the healthcare increases. It'll be very interesting to see how many of those manufacturing jobs stick around as we get more energy behind moratoriums, as we get just the wall of energy and we're not able to actually spin up the data centers. So yeah, I'd be curious to see how many of those manufacturing jobs are tied specifically to AI. I'm going to guess the vast majority. If that's true, those are now all in jeopardy in terms of go forward. So yeah, we'll have to see how this plays out. I, it's, let's take a minute. The numbers are higher than expected. That's great. I love seeing numbers revised up on

• 34:08Tom Bilyeu?

  the jobs, but I am certainly cautious in terms of reading that as a yay.

• 34:16Speaker 04

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• 34:46Speaker 02

  Let's talk about what's at stake briefly before we jump off because I know AI has been a big push for everybody. We need to win this race. I just want to quantify, what does winning mean? What does losing mean? What is the AI race? Like whatever, because I see we are getting advancements right now. There are companies that are using AI right now. We are curing diseases right now. What is the thing that we need more of that we are losing out to? You want to me?

• 35:12Tom Bilyeu?

  I do. So it's really a race of US versus China. You have two great powers locked in through Citi's trap. No matter how much they say, no, no, no, we're not. Let's like be partners. The reality is that when you have two people vying for power in the world, they tend to end up in conflict. When you have two powers that are in very weird positions. So the US has controlled the global economy essentially by having the world's reserve currency, but China's been moving away from that as rapidly as possible. So if I'm China, I don't want to be beholden to the US. So I'm going to try to get off from under the dollar. They've not been successful yet, but they certainly are going way out of their

• 35:55Tom Bilyeu?

  way to build alliances with other people to get sales of anything and everything that they can in their own currency or any currency other than the US, I'm sure would make them not as happy, but they'd be happy to see it. So you've got that. Then you've got China's ability to choke us out from an advanced manufacturing perspective. So rare earth metals, magnets, things like that, which control a massive amount of certainly everything doing, having to do with the military, but also having to do with advanced technology. You've got China threatening to take over Taiwan in 2027. So literally, you, next

• 36:37Tom Bilyeu?

  year, and we are at the end of this year. So in the very near future, if they stick to that plan, they would be making a move soon. That would have a massive impact again in our ability to get a hold of the chips that we need. Now, we've been trying to do things to bring some of that chip manufacturing here to the US. So we'll see what happens. You've got Palmer Lucky who's trying to build defenses that will allow us to have very cheap ways to defend Taiwan. So a lot of question marks there, but why does the AI race matter? Once you have loaded up in your working memory that the US and China are frenemies at best, then you understand whoever wins AI wins means whoever controls AI can

• 37:20Tom Bilyeu?

  control the other party because you have quite literally superior intelligence, potentially super intelligence. And at that point would theoretically be able to stop them from doing things. You'd be able to hack their systems if you so choose. You'd be able to wage war at the level of cyber instead of kinetic. You would be able to with sufficiently advanced AI, you'd be able to shut their systems down at will. They would not be able to return the favor because you would have far stronger defensive weapons than they would have. And so once you start thinking about the next battlefield being cyber, it's like if you can have the cyber equivalent of a nuclear weapon versus the other side's conventional

• 38:03Tom Bilyeu?

  weapons, then you understand how one begins to dominate the other. So it's like, hey, we don't like your trade deals and therefore it'd be a real shame if something happened to your power grid. So that's the kind of thing that you're talking about with AI and not just that. It's literally superior intelligence in terms of making better investments into the stock market. It's superior intelligence in terms of, I mean, literally everything. You would be able to outflank, outmaneuver on virtually every aspect if, and it is a big if, if you can build intelligence that can get a runaway increase compared to the other guy. So if we can do, you know, these are a bit fanciful, but the idea of a quick

• 38:47Tom Bilyeu?

  takeoff is that whoever gets to artificial general intelligence first, where the AI is self-improving, that you could very, very rapidly, some people clock it in hours. I think that's a bit unrealistic, but that you could over days, weeks or months, build a sufficiently advanced cyber capabilities such that you could gain control of your adversaries through non-kinetic means. So once you realize that AI is simply intelligence itself, if you can create essentially a species of superior intelligence, there may be no limit to the amount of control that you could have on the other side. That's all sort

• 39:32Tom Bilyeu?

  of very sci-fi-y, but that is why these two nations will not stop because they know that that possibility is real.

• 39:40Speaker 02

  If we get ASI first, do you think America launches a cyber nuke to China?

• 39:46Tom Bilyeu?

  I think the US says we have the cyber nuke and hopefully has the good sense not to use it. And instead says, hey, because we have these abilities, we want better deals. It will probably look something more like that. I really hope, and I'm judging that based on history, right? There was a moment where the US was the only nation with nuclear weapons and we did not go run the table and force everybody to fall in line behind us. And so my hope is that we, if it were us or China for that matter, that it would be a similar play out, that it does not become draconian rule over the other. It becomes a threat that they know you can back up. And so they are far more likely to be cooperative.

• 40:31Speaker 02

  Cool. All right. Let's jump over to JD Vance who offered a.

• 40:37Speaker 02

  Rather metered postmortem of the election yesterday. It's gonna be a lot of reading, tune in, guys. One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was composition, whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democratic blowout, the data kept telling us the same story. In some states turnout was merely okay, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team. Our people were showing up. I want people to remember that sentence. So I asked the smartest data guy, no, what does that mean? We're going to shock the world? No, he told me we might do better than the polls suggest, but the data telling us that a lot of the Trump Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. So our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us. While that looks prophetic now, our voters did show up.

• 41:21Speaker 02

  In Florida, for example, the electorate was nine points more Republican than Democrat, just a few points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly, there are places we could have done better on turnout, but the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There are a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the posters I respect told me that our economic messaging wasn't sharp enough down the stretch. I'm sure that's true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost anyone. Another pollster, one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we'd lose a generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry, planning to vote for Democrats. He asked these voters who had abandoned us, what would cause them to come back to our team?

• 42:05Speaker 02

  The top four answers, accounting for nearly all the responses, were, number one, end the war, number two, focus on the cost of living inflation, number three, put America first, number four, change our relationship to Israel. Our voters showed up, and the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to the pollster who nailed the results. While many spent money attacking Rachel Campus Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. She's also a great person. I could keep going on, but that's pretty much the TLDR of it all. He broke it down to these four reasons is why people did show up, people that voted for Trump in 2024, but then quote unquote, switched sides and voted for Democrats. What do you think about JD Vance's breakdown?

• 42:45Tom Bilyeu?

  I think he's right. So it is self evident that Trump made a lot of promises, the whole administration made a lot of promises that they did not deliver on. And if you don't deliver on your promises, then the thing that people do is vote you out of power. This is one of the very things that separates us from the dysfunction that you see in France is our electorate can actually go in and remove people from power if they don't think that they're doing the will of the people. We don't have to go riot in the streets, we don't have to burn things down. The president, as much as people like to say that Trump is, you know, trying to act like a king, our system is set up such that they can't. Whereas in France, it's set up such that they can. They don't have to get anybody on board.

• 43:27Tom Bilyeu?

  The president can literally just force the issue down people's throats. So when you have an unelected, or not unelected, they're elected, but they don't have to build consensus because there aren't the kinds of checks and balances that we have, you get a very different result. So this was, I think I said before the election, it's like, I will be shocked if it doesn't happen that way because the voters need to punish the party in power for failing to deliver. And the odds that they were going to give them another chance were effectively zero. Again, just look at history, man. These patterns repeat over and over and over. When, when you get to a midterm, it is a referendum on the people in power. And if the people in power have done what they said they're going to do, which is very

• 44:12Tom Bilyeu?

  rare, then they maintain control. And if they don't, then the very thing that the public does to neuter you is they take away your ability to control the House and the Senate. So that, it's that simple.

• 44:28Speaker 02

  Do you think this is an opportunity for them to kind of turn coat on Trump if they really wanted to? Like, should they take this opportunity? He can't do anything. He's losing his political will. Do they just say, okay, let's get rid of Trump and kind of rise up a new leader?

• 44:42Tom Bilyeu?

  The Republicans?

• 44:43Speaker 02

  The Republicans, yeah.

• 44:44Tom Bilyeu?

  They will not do that. No.

• 44:46Speaker 02

  So 2028?

• 44:47Tom Bilyeu?

  For the next two years, you're talking.

• 44:49Speaker 02

  Yeah, because everybody's right now, Trump announced his run for presidency in 2022. He didn't get on the ballot until 2024. So it's like, this two year thing, it's largely ceremonial. January, we're gonna hear a bunch of people going, a bunch of New Jersey Democrats going to South Carolina to have events. There's gonna be a bunch of people trying to poll and get themselves situated for 2028. I'm asking as like a political analyst, a political strategist, if you were the right, you just got handed this massive blue tsunami, wouldn't it be a good time to kind of cut? I'm kind of leading to the Rubio story because that's kind of his alleged.

• 45:20Tom Bilyeu?

  I thought you were saying, are they gonna push him to step down?

• 45:22Speaker 02

  Oh, no, no, not to like fire him.

• 45:24Tom Bilyeu?

  There are a lot of people calling for him to step down, just so you know, which would take 11 Republicans to switch. That's what I'm saying isn't gonna happen. Do I think members of the administration are going to distance themselves from Trump? They already are. So the fact that Rubio, listen, Rubio did not ask permission to put this out, so says the insiders who say that they know. He gave people a heads up. He said, I am doing this. And so just be aware of the fact that this is coming, but he didn't ask for permission. So you've got Vance, in a respectable way, in my opinion, beginning to distance himself from the Trump administration, which he is absolutely going to have to do if he wants to have even a remote shot in hell at being a viable candidate in 2028, which is why

• 46:08Tom Bilyeu?

  the rumors about Rubio are reasonable, though he denies it, the State Department denies it. So we'll see what actually ends up coming of that. But the reality is that you're gonna see Republicans put so much distance between themselves and Trump that it will be crazy. This is exactly what Democrats should have done back in the lead up to the 2024 election. They should have said that Biden was a mess, I can't believe we let it get this bad. Kamala should have said, here are the 32 policies that I would have done differently than that old man, like we, you know, this should have been nipped in the butt a long time ago. Then you've got a better shot. But when people are unhappy and you say, I don't know what I would have changed, like,

• 46:52Tom Bilyeu?

  what the fuck do you expect people to do? They're gonna say, okay, then I guess this is more of the same. No, thank you. There's no way that somebody, that unless Trump does some radical turnaround where people feel it in their pocketbooks before he goes out of office, the only option is to say, I tried to tell him. And this almost certainly is what Vance is gonna do. There have been rumors for a very long time that Vance has been warning Trump about the Iranian war, that he was being a good team member, if you will, by going out and trying to sell the war to people. But it's been talked about for a long time that Vance did not want Trump to go into this war, that he'd been advising against it, and people were talking about, there was a

• 47:36Tom Bilyeu?

  big rift, and they thought it was gonna all blow up. So it does now seem, given the way that Vance is reacting now, that all of that was probably true. And so you can expect Vance, as more time passes, he's going to differentiate himself more and more and more. Now, he's been a good boy so far, and then he says, look, I'm not thinking about that, I'm just thinking about the American people. And so I'll give him maybe another six to 12 months of that, and then he's gonna have to lean hard into, let me tell you all the things that Trump is getting wrong and what I would do differently. But boy, oh, boy, the Republicans' odds of maintaining the presidency in 2028 right now are effectively zero.

• 48:19Tom Bilyeu?

  So these guys have a whole lot of work to do to dig themselves out of that hole, and it's going to have to be in results. So the only thing that I think right now they could sort of fingers crossed on is that you see the Democrats start pushing legislation that is bad for the economy. And if the Republicans can tell a story, hey, listen, the economy was doing good until the midterms, and then these guys have come and done all this crazy shit, moratoriums, slowing down AI, and that ended up causing the recession that we're in. If they can tell that story in a convincing way, that would be about the only sort of things are bad scenario, we're still in power, and why would you blame anybody but us story

• 49:04Tom Bilyeu?

  that they could possibly tell. But my instinct is right now, if they don't turn things around, they're gonna be in real trouble. All the Democrats have to do is be even remotely reasonable, and they'll be able to point at the Trump administration, just say, guys, everything bad in your life is because of these guys. And Trump and the Republicans have to own the economy. That's just how it works when you get to a presidential election. So the first year he could blame Biden, after that, it's on you, man. And so right now, especially with the war, he has just obviously alienated virtually everybody.

• 49:44Speaker 02

  And to jump over on the other side, this is from Brianna Joy Gray. She's like the only Green Party member I know on the internet. So shout out to her faithful third party, she wants a bad. But Hakeem Jeffries has just rejected Medicare for All as House Speaker. So this is something that has happened not even today. For those that don't know, Hakeem Jeffries is the most quote unquote powerful person in Capitol Hill. Him and Chuck Schumer, they both are avidly against Medicare for All. So this blue tsunami and this DSA takeover that we hoped would come might not be here after all. The Medicare for All talks is somewhat done at this point. Bernie Sanders is now saying he should push for it. I wish I had that clip, I didn't push for it, so I didn't pull it.

• 50:27Speaker 02

  Right now, it seems that the left and the right have some infighting to do, even though the left just won. So it's kind of petty that they're already kind of having infighting starting. People are now calling for Hakeem Jeffries to be stepped down, to not be voted as the House Speaker, to take Mike Johnson's spot.

• 50:40Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, it'll be interesting to see what happens there. Now, I looked into this news and I'm not sure if he's restated it, but this is actually, I think, from like a year ago. So when he first became the minority whip, is that what they're called?

• 50:54Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 50:54Tom Bilyeu?

  So when he first got that role, he immediately changed his tune on Medicare for All. And I think this is the classic Putin thing. Everybody campaigns one way. And then when they actually get into power and people roll up and say, listen, this is how it actually works. And they realize something isn't politically viable, then they start backing off of that. So to be honest, hearing Hakeem Jeffries' actual message, I'm aligned with it. His early message about Medicare for All, obviously, I'm not a supporter of. But what he's saying now actually does make sense to me, which is we need to fix the healthcare system. That I would agree with aggressively. And simply putting everybody into a broken system is not going to solve your problems.

• 51:39Tom Bilyeu?

  So I hope that he actually does make good on that. And I hope that people go for that. And that that's actually what they want to see out of the Democrat Party is that exact thing. Like, let's fix this system. Because the system itself is the problem. And right now, healthcare is broken for the reasons that we went deep into on Wednesday. I walked through in the reaction we did, hopefully you guys saw that, about what's actually causing the problem in healthcare. And it was, it's not entirely, but a massive part of this is the incentive system that was created back in World War II, when companies were forced into a position where they couldn't offer rate raises. So wages were frozen. They couldn't offer raises to attract better talent.

• 52:24Tom Bilyeu?

  But they needed to attract better talent somehow. And so all of that competition ended up happening at the benefits level. And so that changed who the buyers of healthcare is. That became HR departments, essentially. And now it's when you look at the system, nobody in the full stack is incentivized to drive costs down, not insurance companies, not hospitals, not the people that run the companies. And so everybody's left in a situation where the only people with any strong incentives are incentivized to see the prices go up. And that's why when Obamacare was passed, you actually saw the stocks rip for insurance companies because the investors understood immediately what was going to happen. So unfortunately, the only way to actually make healthcare

• 53:09Tom Bilyeu?

  more affordable and better quality is free markets to innovate. And right now, we blame things on the free market. But the reality is, we don't have the free market. We haven't had the free market for decades and decades and decades. And so the fact that we blame all of the governmental manipulation on quote unquote capitalism is part of how things are deranging. Because it just isn't what actually caused the problem.

• 53:37Speaker 02

  And rounding it out with election news, California voters just passed Prop 37. They passed two, they passed Prop 1, which opened up a fund to build more housing. And then they also popped Prop 37, which allowed people to get 3% down payments on their houses. You had like beef with this. I was surprised at that.

• 54:00Tom Bilyeu?

  Massive.

• 54:01Speaker 02

  So I definitely want to do it. It's two, Eric. So let's break this thing down from the beginning.

• 54:07Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah. You want to watch people just fumble historical ball after historical ball? Well, California has a brilliant plan to make housing more unaffordable. I understand people are going to look at this and they're going to think that it's the exact opposite. But follow the mechanisms. So California voters just passed Proposition 37. The state can now sell up to $25 billion in bonds and lend buyers 17% of the price of a new home. Now, guess what happens if those buyers start defaulting? The taxpayers are going to be on the hook for it. Now, they will tell you that that isn't true. They will say, no, no, no. That's not how this is going to play out. But we've seen this before. And what ends up happening, as 2008 shows us,

• 54:52Tom Bilyeu?

  there is no way the state of California is going to let their credit rating get battered. So they will cover this debt for sure, as they have done historically. It would be suicide not to. So the way that this whole thing works is the buyer would put down 3%. So already, people are going to end up in homes that they can't actually afford. So these are going to end up being higher risk buyers. The state is going to cover the gap with a second mortgage. And this is passed with a 61% of the votes. People are loving it. Now, I will say that this is like somebody who first beats you and then consoles you. Please, make sure you understand. The reason that housing is unaffordable

• 55:37Tom Bilyeu?

  is because California will not let people build. There is one way to solve this problem. And you would solve it so fast. And you would push all of the risk onto entrepreneurs, which is where the risk belongs. Those are the people that are saying, hey, I want a shot at getting rich, but if I eat shit, that's bad on me. That is exactly where you want the risk. You don't want the risk on taxpayers, which is exactly where this is going to put it. But if you've got an abuser who then wants to make you feel better, they've got a playbook that they run. Step one, you got to create the shortage first. And right now, 2/3 of residential land in Los Angeles is still zoned for one house per lot.

• 56:20Tom Bilyeu?

  Cities charge tens of thousands of dollars per unit in impact fees before they can even begin laying a foundation. Prop 13 makes sitting on empty land nearly free. So fuck it. I'll just buy up some land and do fuck all with it. The state permitted about 10,000 homes in June. But, but its own plan calls for 300,000 a year. So these guys are so far off of what they need. Again, they're going to make out like they're not creating the problem. But the reality is, they know exactly how many houses per year they need. And they are not doing the things that they would need to do to stop it. So, all right, they slap us around. And then, step two, they're going to sell us secure.

• 57:04Tom Bilyeu?

  Prop 37 does not fund a single home. It funds buyers. More buyers chasing the same fucking restricted supply. So what's that going to do to house prices? It's going to drive them up. Which is why the realtors wrote the fucking bill. Okay? The loans are 97% financed right from the jump. A 10% price dip puts every borrower underwater. So if anything happens to the economy, which doesn't look like the economy is going anywhere good right now, absolutely not. So if something bad happens and we see, say, a 10% dip, that puts every borrower underwater and wipes out the state's position since the second mortgage gets paid last.

• 57:48Tom Bilyeu?

  So step three of the abuser playbook is to tell everyone that it's free. It's all free. It's all free, guys. The bond documents say taxpayers aren't liable. Bondholders can only claim the mortgage payments. If those stop, nobody can touch the general fund. That's what they want you to believe. And on paper, it is what they've written down. But in practice, the issuer and a state agency, and California sells tens of billions in other debt every year. If the, if California were to stiff those bondholders from this new initiative, if it did that, then every rating agency would reprice the state's entire debt stack the next morning.

• 58:33Tom Bilyeu?

  Instantaneously, game over. The cost of that repricing would dwarf the cost of just making the bondholders, bondholders whole. So what are they going to do? Legislature is obviously going to write that check. It would actually be worse for them not to do it. I would advise them to do it in that case, even though I knew going into this, this was fucking stupid and they never should have done it. Because not writing that check is actually going to end up being more expensive to the taxpayer. So they're setting up a situation where the taxpayer basically can only lose. Now, if you think that I'm making this up,

• 59:14Tom Bilyeu?

  Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had the same structure before 2008. Federal law said that the government did not guarantee their debt. Don't worry, these bondholders are on their own. Markets priced them as if they did, because the markets aren't stupid. And when they failed, Treasury took them over. And what did they do? What did they do, everybody? They covered everything. Because the alternative was taking the whole bond market down. They're not going to do that. So the implicit guarantee just becomes a straight up guarantee. It is what's going to happen. So regardless of what it says on, on paper, taxpayers are going to be on the hook for Prop 37. And it's not the thing that's going to solve the problem anyway,

• 59:57Tom Bilyeu?

  until we are making 300,000 new units, homes, however you want to look at it, until we are getting 300,000 new places for people to live. Every year, we are going to continue to have this problem. Oh, and by the way, you want to know another way that this is going to work against people? You're going to create more homeowners. That sounds good, right? Sounds great. But guess what? In the current system, homeowners, what do they want to see happen to property values? Drew?

• 1:00:28Speaker 02

  They want them to go up.

• 1:00:28Tom Bilyeu?

  They want them to go up, baby. Only up. So now you just created even more people that are going to do NIMBYism. And they're doing it on the taxpayers' dime. Because the taxpayer, for the reasons that I just went over, are going to be the ones on the hook for this. If, in a bad economy, these things start turning south and anybody that's looking at our current economy and doesn't think we're going to go at least through a period that is going to be bumpy at best, they are crazy. So the fact that they're trying to solve this problem, instead of just saying, all right, listen, we're going to deregulate housing. We want to look more like Houston. And yep, it means your prices aren't going to go up. Sorry, everybody. You're not going to get wealthy off of just owning a house. Your house is a way for us to make sure

• 1:01:13Tom Bilyeu?

  that people have a place to live, that they can own, that they can invest in, that they can make theirs, that they can raise a family in, they can create memories in, all of that stuff. The thing that grounds people in the community. One of those good things. Instead of doing that... We are going to continue to restrict supply unnecessarily. And we're going to put taxpayers at risk and we're going to likely raise the prices. Or at least put more pressure on people to want the prices to go up. Instead of doing the thing which they should be doing, which is making this an entrepreneur's problem. By deregulating and saying, alright guys, build as much housing as you think people will buy.

• 1:01:56Tom Bilyeu?

  Now, a lot of developers will go in and they will build too much. And in building too much, many of them will go out of business. That's where you want the risk. Let the entrepreneurs take the risk. If they win, they can win big, and I know that makes a lot of people resentful. But when they lose, nobody cries any tears for them. And they eat that loss. That's where we should want the risk. Actually, on the person who thinks that they have a clever idea. And if they do, we all benefit because we get more and better and cheaper houses on the market. And if they lose, we don't pay for it, they do. So yeah, this is wild. This is... Californians are abused by their own government all the time. And then they pass dumb ass shit like this.

• 1:02:40Tom Bilyeu?

  And expect that people are gonna be like, thank you sir, may I have another? It's so crazy. This is people that do not understand the mechanisms that drive the economy, in this case specifically, housing.

• 1:02:53Speaker 02

  And then continuing that trend, Gavin Newsom also commuted the sentences of 548 people on death row. This is from his letter to the people. "The people sentenced to death in California caused indescribable suffering to victims, their families, communities, and our state as a whole. The harm they inflicted persists across generations. Many Californians feel that those who commit brutal crimes deserve to die. But as governor, I have concluded the state cannot morally kill them. I do however pray that this act will finally separate the memories of the victims of these crimes from the fate, excuse me, of those who harmed them. We can now let these offenders die in obscurity while we forever remember and honor their victims." Are you a death penalty guy? Do you have beef with this? I don't feel like we never talked about that.

• 1:03:36Tom Bilyeu?

  We actually have talked about this. But to be honest, I will always call balls and strikes. I don't have any beef with this. So I'm not opposed to the death penalty. If somebody's on death row, let's go. And I don't need there to be a death penalty. So if he wants to commute these sentences and these people are going to stay in prison, I'm fine with that. That, this to me is a voter thing. If voters care about this, then they will get him out of office if they think that this is too offensive. Now, I don't like Newsom as a politician, so I don't trust anything out of his mouth. So I certainly don't think he's doing this on moral grounds. I think this is probably part of his setup for a run for president, but I don't mind this. This is perfectly fine, I'm no beef.

• 1:04:21Speaker 02

  Okay, cool. We got a gang of super chats, let's jump over to those.

• 1:04:25Speaker 03

  And then check your DMs about one of them. First up, Marushia Dark says, "Dems and leftists only have four levers they can pull. Rob the haves and makers, bribe the poor, call you a bigot, or burn things down in spite. All their policies ultimately come down to one or more of these, prove me wrong, the CHIPS Act." I threw in the CHIPS Act to prove me wrong.

• 1:04:44Tom Bilyeu?

  I was like, why is he doing the CHIPS Act at the end of that? Well, so I'll try to prove you wrong, Marushia. I think you're very sharp and so I bring this to you in good faith. I'll say that there's another opportunity. I don't know that they'll go for it, but there is an opportunity. And the opportunity would be to pull people back to the middle, to really look at the working and middle class and say, "They've got to be winning." And listen, I'm in the whatever 0.1%. And I'm telling you that for my own best interest, I want to see the middle and working class absolutely thriving. I want to see their real wages growing.

• 1:05:24Tom Bilyeu?

  And once you understand, no matter where you fall in that stack, that that is in everybody's best interest, now it just becomes a question of mechanism. And so if we can get like a Hakeem Jeffries going, okay, we're not just gonna dump everybody into Medicare for all because it won't actually solve the problem. Now again, he may just be being a cynical politician, but let's pretend for a second that he's actually realizing, okay, yeah, this actually isn't the thing that's going to solve the problem. There is though, a way to solve that problem. And if we can get more people on board with that, I think that that would be great. So I refuse, literally as a rule in my life, I refuse to give in to the cynicism. So I will say, they've got a shot, let's want them to do well.

• 1:06:08Tom Bilyeu?

  The people that got elected have a shot to represent all of us. Everybody should not want to be on a team. I'll even say shout out to Tala Rico. I thought that his speech was great. Again, not somebody I wanted to see get elected. I think a lot of the things that he's talked about in the past, I think are deeply nonsensical. But what he said when he was elected, I thought was absolutely fantastic. And it was, even for the people that didn't want to see me get elected, "I'm here to make life better for you as well." And I was like, fuck yeah, like that is the vibe, that is what you want from people. Now, if he does bad policies, we will call out the policies. But there really is a shot for, at all times, when you get a mandate from the people

• 1:06:52Tom Bilyeu?

  to lead with optimism and a desire to make contact with the actual mechanisms that make an economy either work or not work. And so when you hear people say the right things, I think we should celebrate that. And so hopefully, we see more and more of that from the elected officials. Hopefully, I can get everybody on board with, we want them to do well. They may not do well, and we will certainly speak out if they're not. But we should want them to do well, we should want them to thrive. And when they're doing the right things, regardless of whether we perceive them as being on our team or not, we should celebrate the good things. So I think that's very important not to let that get lost.

• 1:07:31Tom Bilyeu?

  Now, have people, as you go farther out on the left, done the things that you're saying are those? The four levers that they pull the most frequently? Yes, they certainly do pull those levers a lot. But they aren't the only levers at their disposal. And I'm, I'm going to remain optimistic and tell, given reason otherwise, to believe that some of them will find their way to that, to actually fight for their constituents and their constituents across the aisle, both left and right. That would be my hope. Welcome to my, it's not naive uptake, I certainly know the realities. But if nobody's talking about it, if nobody's hoping for it, if nobody's leaving space for it,

• 1:08:14Tom Bilyeu?

  then we, we condemn ourselves to the madness of populism.

• 1:08:19Speaker 03

  Marushia Dark, thank you for the 40 total, says, "Starting seeing people in real life here in New Jersey openly glazing the Muslim Brotherhood with verbal struggle sessions against critics. These radicals have no shame or fear. America needs to wake the fuck up and stop this Trojan horse now."

• 1:08:34Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, I mean, listen, this is gonna be one of the, despite that I can't get my two compadres here on my team with this. Yes, values are a very real thing. Now, if you map this to Muslims writ large, you're gonna be constantly confused. That would be a very unwise way of looking at it, just as Timothy McVeigh did not represent all Christians. But it, it is very necessary, I think, to understand the concept of jihad. I think it is very necessary to understand that there are people that absolutely despise America, despise the West. And if you're not careful about who you invite into your country, you will get a mass of those people. If you keep teaching Americans this idea of original sin, even for people who are born here,

• 1:09:18Tom Bilyeu?

  even for like fucking, I can trace my ancestry back to the fucking Mayflower, man. You're going to get people that hate America because they are taught a story that America is uniquely evil. If we keep doing that, you can expect to see radicals of all skin colors. So yeah, this is where I'm like, hey, that thing is very real. And we absolutely need to call out people that are cozying up to terrorist organizations or quite frankly, anybody that wishes America harm. But boy, oh boy, avoid the blunt instrument of Muslim bad. Because A, it's wildly inaccurate. And B, the thing that made America great was that we called people from all over the world. "Hey, we've got this set of values.

• 1:10:02Tom Bilyeu?

  And by the way, if you can't make it here, you're gonna starve to death." That attracted incredible people from all over the world, many of whom faced discrimination as soon as they rocked up, whether they were white or not, fucking Irish, Italians. They got it, right? Chinese got it hard for a while, Japanese, obviously. So we have an opportunity to recognize the thing that makes America absolutely the greatest country on planet earth was we had a setup. The way that we were founded, our founding principles attracted, I'll call it entrepreneurial freedom-loving people. But we attracted entrepreneurial freedom-loving people who were not coming for a handout. They were coming for a shot. We called those people from the world over. We don't want to stop doing that.

• 1:10:47Tom Bilyeu?

  But at the same time, when you have a welfare system, now it starts to misalign incentives and you've gotta scrutinize people's value system on the way in. That we've gotta be very hardcore about. We've also gotta decide as Americans, what do we stand for? And that is gonna be a tough road. And it's largely gonna be about the kids. I know, we don't like to have that conversation, but we're gonna have to talk about, what are we gonna teach kids? What openly do we want to hear professed in schools? That, in fact, that might become my new, my new calibrating question. If you were going to write a like 500-word breakdown of what you want taught in schools, what would that 500-word breakdown look like?

• 1:11:30Tom Bilyeu?

  That will be very informative, very informative. So anyway, having beef with that, having beef with jihad, yes, all of that. Letting it spill into, I can tell based on the amount of melanin in your skin or where you come from, that you are bad, like Jesus Christ. That will lead you into reasoning that is full retard. Unfortunately, we are wired to go, ooh, I can see that you look differently to me. And therefore, even though it is certainly on historical time scales, it would have been a useful way to say, oh, you're not from around here. And therefore, odds are that you don't share my values, therefore you are other and not kin.

• 1:12:15Tom Bilyeu?

  Sure, it's good shorthand for that. But it was only ever a heuristic and heuristics can be extremely dangerous. Just like all the heuristics that the brain uses to navigate the world, you fall prey to optical illusions and things like that. We have an optical illusion around race that stops us from getting to the thing that really does matter, which is values. Values people will kill for and they will die for. So baby, baby, you better figure out what people's values are. You better know what you stand for, you better know what you're passing on to the kids. Otherwise, you are headed for madness. And I mean madness as in open conflict in the streets.

• 1:12:54Speaker 03

  RDSTAF Seth says, "Watch Adam Carolla's hilarious EBT kibble clip. No junk food on SNAP, just a healthy nutrient, complete staple. Quest set out to end metabolic disease. Would you partner with RFK to build? Could this cut healthcare costs?"

• 1:13:11Tom Bilyeu?

  Well, so that's really interesting from a would it cut healthcare costs? The bad news is that people are going to eat what they want to eat. Even people that have like bariatric surgery found what they called slippery foods so that they could eat things like ice cream and still get the excess calories to remain obese. It's wild. So thinking of that as like a food addiction is probably a useful way. So I don't pass moral judgments on people that are in the grips of food addiction, but nonetheless mechanistically, it's deeply problematic. And so if removing junk food from SNAP actually somehow started getting people healthier, then yes, that actually would lower healthcare costs theoretically.

• 1:13:53Tom Bilyeu?

  There are other abuses in that system that may stop that from being noticeable, but yes, that would be, no matter what, that would be a huge step forward. Now, should there be restrictions on SNAP benefits aggressively? Aggressively? They should be non-transferable. You shouldn't be able to sell them. They should be restricted to only certain food types. All of that is true. There should be enough friction on SNAP that people are like, "I don't want to stay on this shit forever. I don't like somebody telling me what I can and can't eat." People should be wanting to get a job. If you are able-bodied, you should want to get a job. All of the incentives should be pushing you to get a job. I can't stress that enough.

• 1:14:34Tom Bilyeu?

  Even from a psychological perspective, it is so much better for that person to have to interface with the world, to earn the things in their life. All of these things, you can take it up with God, but we have algorithms running in our brain that will give us a profound sense of dis-ease if we are not pursuing meaning and purpose by doing something that moves us forward, provides for us, and contributes to the larger group. So yeah, we should be dramatically limiting our social welfare system, dramatically.

• 1:15:04Speaker 03

  Shock Powers says, "Morning, Tom and crew. First, thank you all for the thoughtfulness in doing the show. Please walk us from first principles through how China is likely to view a divided legislature and executive in the US relative to their goal to reunite with Taiwan."

• 1:15:20Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay, so from a first principles perspective, if they're smart, they're going to be trying to gain influence with as many people on either side of the aisle as they can. From first principles, anybody that's tough on them is going to be their enemy. So Trump clearly is not the person that they want to see in power. From a first principles perspective, historically, Democrats have been much more conciliatory, much less likely to try to impose their will on other people. The Democrats scream from the rooftops that you can't judge one culture against another. And so if China wants to put people in concentration camps, who are we to say otherwise? And from that perspective, I think that they will be very happy to see Democrats back in power, forget the division.

• 1:16:04Tom Bilyeu?

  Then from a division perspective, of course, if we're destabilized, that's much better for them. I think both them and Russia and Iran, for that matter, understand that the American system makes us prone to division because you don't have anybody that will shoot you in the face for dissenting, unlike Iran, for instance. You don't have the gulags like you have in Russia and you don't have the kinds of re-education camps that you find in China. So yeah, they know that we're prone to division, which is why these guys create bot accounts and try to assault our mentality through social media, things that they would never allow in their countries. They propagate actively here in the US.

• 1:16:47Tom Bilyeu?

  So from that perspective, if we're divided, we are less likely to extend ourselves to protect Taiwan. So they know that a house divided is good for them. They know that Democrats are better than Republicans and they're probably, the thing that gives the most ticks in their box would be a very divided America with Democrats in power. That would probably be the best thing for China. Yeah, period.

• 1:17:15Speaker 03

  Next up from Canis Barbatus says, "Michael Malice said the next two years are going to be, quote, incredibly stupid. What are everyone's thoughts on this? I see 24/7, J6 commissions preempting your regular programming and total gridlock." Texas resident here.

• 1:17:30Tom Bilyeu?

  You're definitely going to have total gridlock, but that's sort of by design. That is what our system is designed to do, so we should all be grateful for that, that neither party can just run off when they get into a divided situation like we're in now. So yay. Incredibly stupid? Okay, so I'm going to project here. What does Michael Malice mean? I'm guessing he means going back to some of the more reasoning by emotion? If I had to clock how he would think about this in terms of the policies and things that were being promoted in culture and in the White House during the Biden administration

• 1:18:10Tom Bilyeu?

  were to anybody that has, I don't know if he'd clock himself as a right-leaning personality. I know he is an anarchist, but I don't know if he sees himself from what I call a temperament perspective. If he's more personal responsibility, that I'd definitely let him speak for himself. So if I had to guess, he's thinking something along those lines. It'll be reasonable, reason, reasoning by emotion. It will be purity tests. It will be grinding the government to a halt with endless lawfare or things like that. That's my instinct, but we'll see.

• 1:18:45Speaker 03

  I looked it up. Michael Malice describes himself as, quote, "An anarchist without adjectives. He rejects centralized state power, government coercion, and democracy."

• 1:18:54Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, it doesn't quite help us with why he's saying it would be stupid, but things that I believe I'm remembering correctly from what he said about things in the past, that's my instinct, what I just went through.

• 1:19:05Speaker 03

  Last super chat for now. George Sullivan says, "Team needs to read Animal Farm. So on the nose with today's US politics, it's scary. Can MicroDuck save AI with good vibes? Is Ryan related to Garen Thumbs' Mika twins? And can GTA 6 save November, South Park?" I looked up the guy he compared me to and it's, it's kind of, yeah, I do just kind of look like him. It's kind of funny.

• 1:19:28Tom Bilyeu?

  Really? I don't know who it is. Can we pull it up on screen? Let's see.

• 1:19:32Speaker 03

  I mean, it is just kind of a white guy with brown hair and glasses and...

• 1:19:33Tom Bilyeu?

  I like to think not all white guys are the same, but...

• 1:19:37Speaker 03

  And then as for GTA, guys preload...

• 1:19:40Tom Bilyeu?

  Wait, wait, wait. I gotta see this. I gotta see if you look like who this person is. Pull him up. Oh my God. Oh my God. Now, listen, I think he's a little rougher around the edges.

• 1:19:53Speaker 02

  Just because he's holding a gun. No disrespect, Ryan, like that.

• 1:19:56Tom Bilyeu?

  But I gotta say...

• 1:19:57Speaker 03

  I go hunting.

• 1:19:58Speaker 02

  There it goes. Don't disrespect my man, Ryan.

• 1:20:00Speaker 03

  I know the shooting range. I like guns.

• 1:20:02Tom Bilyeu?

  That guy really does look like Ryan, though.

• 1:20:03Speaker 03

  Just because I want gun control, doesn't mean I don't like guns.

• 1:20:06Tom Bilyeu?

  Just because you want gun control doesn't mean you don't like guns? Is that what you said?

• 1:20:10Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 1:20:11Tom Bilyeu?

  All right.

• 1:20:12Speaker 03

  I just think gun owners should be responsible.

• 1:20:13Tom Bilyeu?

  Hey, a statement nobody should argue with. Okay, the other part of that was, is GTA 6 going to save November? Ryan, you were about to say something.

• 1:20:22Speaker 03

  Yes.

• 1:20:24Speaker 03

  That was my answer.

• 1:20:25Tom Bilyeu?

  There it is. All right. Hands to the heavens. I think it's going to create a lot of content, so I'm super excited about that. Are we actually going to stream me playing GTA 6 or we've sort of given up on that?

• 1:20:35Speaker 02

  That is the plan. That is the plan. Tom says he can't multitask, so he won't let us have him stream the whole time while I'm asking him questions. He says I'll be bad TV. Me, Ryan, Edgy, and Eric have all vehemently disagreed with this.

• 1:20:48Tom Bilyeu?

  Hey, listen, I'm happy to do it. I'm just telling you, as somebody who game-streamed for a year, I can basically do either play the game or I can start walking into a wall while I answer your question. Or you can ask questions and I answer something that you didn't really ask because I'm trying to process simultaneously the person shooting at me and what you guys are doing. I am happy to do whatever. It will be a lot of fun no matter what, but if you want deep answers about politics, that's going to be tough while I'm trying to seduce, what's her name?

• 1:21:20Speaker 03

  Lucia.

• 1:21:20Tom Bilyeu?

  Lucia, yeah. So just keep that in mind. Keep that in mind. That's going to be a lot of fun. I think also the part of the content that's going to be coming out of that is old rock star versus new rock star. And we'll see if they're, if they have gone as woke as some people would have us believe. Do you guys know who Fleekazoid is?

• 1:21:41Speaker 03

  No.

• 1:21:42Tom Bilyeu?

  Oh my God, he's fucking hilarious. Absolutely hilarious. I don't think we could ever play his stuff on here, but he did a whole GTA 6 breakdown that is very funny. I encourage anybody with an edgy sense of humor to watch his breakdown of GTA 6.

• 1:21:58Speaker 02

  There was also a Take 2 read on here, too.

• 1:22:00Tom Bilyeu?

  Oh, this was hilarious, but it has nothing to do with GTA 6 per se.

• 1:22:04Speaker 02

  Oh, okay.

• 1:22:05Tom Bilyeu?

  But...

• 1:22:06Speaker 02

  Yeah, let's talk about it.

• 1:22:07Tom Bilyeu?

  By all means.

• 1:22:08Speaker 05

  There are concern, I mean, I think there is a concern that this is your big hit and that you don't have enough hits in your library.

• 1:22:16Speaker 05

  Can you, I mean, can you, how do you like knock that down?

• 1:22:22Speaker 06

  Well, look, we have 15 franchises that have each sold at least 5 million units in the new The Dual release. I think we have the best collection of owned intellectual property in the video game business. And I think that's reflected in our top line, our bottom line, and our market cap. So I guess the way I respond to it is like, examine the facts. I don't know. I mean, look, we have in addition to Grand Theft Auto, we have Red Dead Redemption, a massive title, sold over 65 million units in the most recent release, Red Dead Online, Grand Theft Auto Online, we have NBA 2K, which is the second biggest sports title worldwide, the biggest in North America, WWE 2K, Bioshock Borderlands Civilization, and then on the

• 1:23:07Speaker 06

  mobile side, Words with Friends, Empires and Puzzles, and Poker, and hundreds of other titles. It's a pretty good story.

• 1:23:13Tom Bilyeu?

  I would agree. She clearly does not know game development. Somebody must have said something to her, or she read a tweet on Blue Sky or some shit. I don't know. But that was an absolutely ridiculous question. She does not know Take 2. These guys are massive. They are one of the biggest and most well-respected game developers on planet Earth. I'll take exception to that they're, they have the best library of IP. That's probably a bit of an exaggeration. But they, yeah, their, their bench is very deep.

• 1:23:45Speaker 03

  I also want to say, for anyone who has ever said that GTA 6 is gonna be woke, you haven't played a GTA game. Because every single one of these games, there's a whole section for the Ballad of Gay Tony, there's a whole thing where they're making fun of the LAPD with the anti-gang unit. They literally name one of the officers after The Corrupt Cop it was based on in real life. Like, these games are, in air quotes, woke. Like, everyone in chat who's like, "It's gonna be too woke," has not played the games.

• 1:24:11Tom Bilyeu?

  Now, are you saying because the games previously were also woke? Or because you're expecting this one to be equally unhinged to like GTA 3, 4, and 5?

• 1:24:21Speaker 03

  What I will say is, the conversation online is, well, and I hate the word woke. Woke's one, it's just, it's a stupid word. But woke is what everyone's worried about with this new game. You go play all the old games. Now, I haven't played 1 and 2, but 3 through San Andreas Vice City and 4. They all have themes and storylines that are considered woke. Like, it just shows that these people who are complaining about GTA 6 online haven't played the old games.

• 1:24:45Tom Bilyeu?

  That's interesting. So here's what I am expecting to be the debate, is in the previous games, there was a celebration of violence, there was a celebration of being a unhinged lunatic that spends all your time at a strip club. And now, the question is gonna become, do we see some of that, like, really raw, like, Call of Duty lobby circa 2004 talk between the characters, which there was a lot of? Like, they said all the words, Ryan. And now, what people think this may over-index on is like, a dating simulator, and the big complaint about Jason is that he's cucked out, and so...

• 1:25:29Speaker 02

  Because he has a girlfriend? These incels need to get, get laid, bro.

• 1:25:32Speaker 03

  Literally. I mean, literally, in GTA V, there's a whole torture sequence, making fun of the Bush administration for their tactics in the Middle East. Like, it's, it's all of these games have been woke.

• 1:25:42Speaker 02

  They're gonna say retard, guys. Okay, you're good. You're saying, they're gonna say retard, you're gonna be able to kill a prostitute, you're gonna be able to, you're gonna be able to hit civilians, it's...

• 1:25:50Speaker 03

  You're gonna be able to, you know, go to Pride Ranch, do all the BS you wanna do there.

• 1:25:54Tom Bilyeu?

  This is how I know that this is gonna be a lot of content for us, is, will GTA 6 go hard enough to please the chuds? And will these two be able to convince the world that GTA has always been woke? That is gonna be very fun.

• 1:26:12Speaker 03

  Convince the world? I've played each game. It's no convincing, it's the storylines, it's the script.

• 1:26:17Speaker 02

  It's the same people who are mad at The Odyssey who never watched a Chris Nolan movie. They just, people just wanna be mad.

• 1:26:21Tom Bilyeu?

  They never saw what movie?

• 1:26:22Speaker 02

  They never seen a Chris Nolan movie. They just was like, The Odyssey, there's a black person in it? How dare he? Woke, woke, woke, woke, woke, woke, woke, woke.

• 1:26:29Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, the Odyssey stuff was crazy. But, yeah, it'll be interesting to see. I, I, I want to see. I don't know. I haven't, other than the trailer, I haven't seen enough come out. That makes me think that, oh, this is gonna be some complete backpedal. However, I have seen what has happened to the video game industry, and there is no doubt that the video game industry attracted a lot of people. Remember, I lived through this. So, for people that don't know, had a, we were doing comic books for a while, I had hired a writing team. I'd never heard of woke, I didn't know that was a thing. And I, Tom Bilyeu, wrote a line for the villain of the story, where he said something like, "Don't

• 1:27:12Tom Bilyeu?

  be a pussy." And they, the people on the writing team were like, "You can't say that." And I'm like, "What do you mean?" And they're like, "You can't say that word." I'm like, "What?" It's the villain. Like, a bad guy says a bad thing, what do you mean you can't say it? And so, that's when I realized, whoa, there's a lot of that that has gotten into the game industry. And I'm sure we could pull up an endless list of the video essays that have been on this topic. I don't need to go into that here. But trust me when I say that there's been a lot of that kind of policing behind the scenes that's made its way into games. And there is a contingent in games that doesn't like that direction of travel. That they want, certainly from a GTA game, a game that is predicated on

• 1:27:52Tom Bilyeu?

  being a criminal and violence. They want that celebratory of sort of the chud ethos. So, we will see if this ends up being a flashpoint for that or not, because I think it's very different that simply believing politically in left-leaning things does not meet, in my world, the definition of woke. So, I think those are two very different things. That's what we're gonna see play out in the debate when it drops. What date does it drop, by the way?

• 1:28:23Speaker 03

  Uh, November 19th on a Thursday.

• 1:28:24Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay, snap. It's coming up, it's coming up. We'll find out, we'll see it in real life.

• 1:28:30Speaker 02

  Okay, so woke equals undue importance on identity politics, pushing diversity for its own sake, not because it serves a product. So like, racial quotas, trans quotas, obligatory pride flags, etc. Do you agree that that's...

• 1:28:43Tom Bilyeu?

  That's part of it. I'll push it farther and say it is also where there is, everybody tries to be overly self-aware, everybody tries to say, "Don't say bad thing." Everybody just accepts that even though I might be a criminal mastermind that just shot somebody in the face, I would never want you to be derogatory towards a woman or a person of color. That's where people start going, "Hold on." Like, there are people that are bad, and they say and do bad things, and they are racist and horrible, and I want to, if that guy is the villain, I don't necessarily, I doubt many people are gonna come say, "I wanna see that guy celebrated." But they wanna be able to see the bad guys actually

• 1:29:26Tom Bilyeu?

  be bad. And I saw this clip the other day of like, the villain speaking, and how they like, end up saying like, all this like, really soft and sensitive stuff. And I was like, "Oh, that actually is weird." You've got this mega maniacal person, and they are speaking in all this like, really soft language. So, there is something interesting there. I won't say that I've gone deep enough on like, all of that in games to know if it's actually prevalent or not, because I don't play those kind of games. But it is a very interesting debate about, like, as a writer, you wanna be, and remember, my first identity of self is as writer. And as a writer, you want to be able to step into the character

• 1:30:10Tom Bilyeu?

  and write from their perspective, not try to make every character represent your values. You're gonna write characters that are anathema to you and what you think in the way that the world ought to be. And that is exactly how you create the collision of values, so that you can say, basically, the way that any story should be is a dialogue on a theme. And it should not be obvious throughout the whole piece until the very end, what the writer actually believes. Then in the end, the, the best movies, I will say, take a side. And they say something ultimately concrete about that value. But the, through the whole movie, it should feel like a dialogue. And you should, the villain should make good points, where you're like, "Fuck, that's actually, damn. Like, I feel weird because

• 1:30:55Tom Bilyeu?

  that guy's doing bad things, but he just said a thing that I'm like, "Oh, that's kinda real." Those are the best movies, where they can make you contend with something like that. Whereas, if you're wearing your morality on your sleeve, and you're just trying to do a morality play where every character shares the same morality, you end up not actually telling a compelling story that makes people confront their own beliefs and values.

• 1:31:19Speaker 02

  Somebody said, was Walter White the bad guy?

• 1:31:21Tom Bilyeu?

  Uh, Walter White is the bad guy.

• 1:31:24Speaker 02

  Are you Breaking Bad or you like?

• 1:31:25Tom Bilyeu?

  I love Breaking Bad.

• 1:31:26Speaker 02

  Let's go. Uh, okay. Back, back to, um, the show.

• 1:31:30Tom Bilyeu?

  But really fast on Walter White, they make you understand him. And that's what makes it so uncomfortable is like, fuck, people really can break bad. It, it's a, the, the title of the show is so bang on, and I think people don't stop to think about what the title actually is. This is a guy that was trying to take care of his family. We can all understand that. This guy facing his own mortality, we can all understand that. But he actually sells his soul in order to do it, and he pays a price that is just nonsensical. And so like, that to me is what makes that show so amazing is that you make me relate to a guy, like a guy at times, but then watch him do these things that are just

• 1:32:13Tom Bilyeu?

  unredeemable and ultimately is not redeemed. So it's, yeah, it's pretty interesting. But it's a mixed bag. He is actually trying to help his family at some points.

• 1:32:24Speaker 02

  Um, GT R rocker, one great example of what Tom is saying is Ed Norton's character in American History X.

• 1:32:29Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, another very flawed character.

• 1:32:32Speaker 02

  Yeah, that was good.

• 1:32:33Tom Bilyeu?

  But phenomenally interesting. It was trying to get me earlier too. So if you got it.

• 1:32:37Speaker 02

  Yeah, what do, what do y'all swap?

• 1:32:38Tom Bilyeu?

  There, there is a fucking mosquito in here.

• 1:32:39Speaker 02

  A ton of mosquitoes back here.

• 1:32:40Tom Bilyeu?

  Bro, it's great. Like, what is happening?

• 1:32:43Speaker 03

  I got like bites all up my arm this time.

• 1:32:45Speaker 02

  I've been doing this all show. Like, is he trying to get my attention? What's happening right there?

• 1:32:49Tom Bilyeu?

  Before you guys got here, I actually slapped my own ear because I could hear it. Yeah. So, uh, anyway, that was a, a side note.

• 1:32:57Speaker 02

  Uh, okay. Back to the show. Um, this is very interesting and I want to see how, um, like metastasizes and how it grows and how it spreads through culture. Utah is criminally charging Calshi CEO and COO with 13 counts of illegal gambling. There is this backlash of prediction markets that are bubbling up, but I can't see where, is this just a moral thing that, you know, people think that this is wrong? Is it a, people are looking at the outcomes and they're seeing that when, there was one country when they banned Calshi and Polly Market from trading their money in essentials like food, groceries, things like that increased like 6% or something. So people were spending like their grocery bill to like bet on gambling and stuff like that. Do you think that there is going to be a backlash to this

• 1:33:41Speaker 02

  proliferation of gambling into every industry, including politics, sports? Who's going to win the midterms? How many bombs are going to go off in a different country? Things like that.

• 1:33:51Tom Bilyeu?

  Well, there's certainly a public backlash against it and has been for a while.

• 1:33:56Tom Bilyeu?

  Um, the question that it always leads to for me is at what point do we say humans can't think for themselves and therefore we have to put restrictions in place? And the thing is they're right, but it opens up very uncomfortable truths. So if people are not able to think for themselves and we need to say, you can't spend your money the way that you want. Because the honest answer for me is if somebody wants to gamble their money away, they should be able to do that. If somebody wants to literally light their money on fire, they should be able to do that. Uh, if somebody wants, this isn't about money, obviously, but to, to get to the ultimate thing. If somebody wants to commit suicide, they should be able to do that. Um, so that's my take. I believe in autonomy. I believe that people, if they're not hurting somebody else,

• 1:34:40Tom Bilyeu?

  then they should be able to do what they want with their own body, with their own money. Uh, and so I don't like the government stepping in and saying what you can and can't spend your money on. It's actually one of the things that I find most offensive. One of the few things that would just absolutely redline me, peg me into being like completely irrational. Uh, I, I can see in myself that I'm becoming unhinged is when a bank acts like my money is their money. And I'm like, no, no, no, that's not how this game works. If I roll up and tell you that I want $10,000, you're going to give me my $10,000. Like no questions asked. It's none of your fucking business what I plan to spend it on. Quite, and, and I will and have like made a scene. I just, I, I see red. Uh, so I feel a similar way. If I want to gamble my money, I ought to be able to do that.

• 1:35:23Tom Bilyeu?

  But at the same time, when you zoom out and you start looking at what it does to society, it does bad things. Because so many people are unable to live an adult life. It's wild. But then what do you do about the fact that we admit that when humans are taken together as a collective, we understand that they cannot think through these problems, but we're still going to let them vote. It gets tricky very fast. And so either we say, listen, people are able to think for themselves and therefore able to vote, do all of that. And we don't need to put any restrictions or requirements on it because they are perfectly able to think through all of this, or we say, no, no, no, sorry. Um, we have to protect you from yourself. So that's where I'm just like, you can't have it both ways.

• 1:36:07Tom Bilyeu?

  Either people can think for themselves and make decisions or they can't. Now again, your rights end where somebody else's begins. So I'm not saying people should be able to run around the street. Um, you know, leaking toxic waste or doing whatever because they feel like it. Um, I'm not an anarchist like our man, um, Michael Malice, but I do believe that we either trust people to think for themselves or we don't. And if we don't, then we got to be honest about it.

• 1:36:34Speaker 02

  Um, cool. That makes sense to me. I'm curious to see where it goes. Um, we have to jump over to Paraguay. Did I say Reggie? Paraguay? Paraguay?

• 1:36:43Tom Bilyeu?

  He just said no, off camera.

• 1:36:45Speaker 02

  Yeah, I'm sorry.

• 1:36:45Tom Bilyeu?

  But he said it by pronouncing it correctly. That, that was a hurtful part.

• 1:36:48Speaker 02

  I'm going, going to South America later this year. I gotta get ready.

• 1:36:50Tom Bilyeu?

  Ooh, let's go. Work on that accent.

• 1:36:52Speaker 02

  Exactly. What just happened in Paraguay is warning for everyone on earth. More than 3 million people, 60% of Paraguay's adult population have lost access to everything. Their bank accounts, their pensions, frozen inaccessible. Paraguay's largest digital bank, Unio, Unio Bank has collapsed. The president of the central bank, who is deeply connected to Unio, has just resigned. Eight high level executives, including the founder and the bank presidents are being detained. The people have taken to the streets to demand their money back and rightfully so. This is the model Malay and the rest of the Epstein class are pushing. This could happen anywhere. Best to save in physical gold and physical silver, in my opinion. That last part I feel like was a, his own kind of spin to it, but yeah, what's going on down there?

• 1:37:34Tom Bilyeu?

  We're gonna have to find out what's going on in Paraguay before we get too hardcore about beating the drum. I'm very surprised to hear this guy say this is what Malay is going for. Uh, Malay has a very difficult job ahead of him, which is he has to undo nearly a hundred years of socialist abuses and a system that basically pays people from cradle to grave. I just cannot stress how asinine that is. And it makes it impossible for your country to thrive economically because you deal with hyperinflation. Uh, it's just, again, the economy works on a set of physics. Now, what the actual things were that transpired in Paraguay, I don't know. So it's very possible that we need to arrest all these guys. So I would have to look into the details of what actually, uh, went down.

• 1:38:18Tom Bilyeu?

  But when your banks freeze, now you're talking to me about fractional lending. That is almost certainly the big part of this. People don't even understand how bad fractional banking is here in the West. It is absolutely insane. There, right now, there actually are no limits to, uh, what percentage of your deposit the bank has to keep behind. So they will actually, uh, legally, they can go to zero. You lend them $10 and they can lend that $10 out. They don't have to keep anything in reserves. That's crazy. Uh, which is exactly why when you roll up and you ask for some of your money back, they treat you like it's their money because they are being so irresponsible. Uh, but this is exactly how debt gets into their, money gets into the system is through all this debt.

• 1:39:02Tom Bilyeu?

  Uh, so yeah, it, it is crazy. I don't know. I assume, given that they collapsed, that they really were mismanaging the banking. Uh, now the question becomes, are they confiscating that money because they did something bad somewhere else? Uh, are they confiscating that money because the bank made a bunch of bad decisions? Is this a central bank problem? So there would need to be, I would need, uh, a lot more specifics to know exactly who the villains are in this story. I always have a default response that bankers, especially central bankers are the villain. Uh, that politicians are the villain because that's how we ended up here. Um, but I don't know the specifics.

• 1:39:39Speaker 02

  Uh, okay. So I got update. I went down this guy's, uh, feed. So the president has resigned in disgrace after, as well. Santiago Peña, he was forced to resign in disgrace after shocking details of the many connections what's been described as the biggest fraud of the century came to light. Peña was a business partner of the conglomerate that owns Unio Bank, that the largest digital bank in Paraguay. That's why they're pushing it. It's a digital bank. Until 2025, Peña personally accepted two highly irregular private loans directly from Unio Bank during his tenure. Peña used his presidential platform to shield the bank from inspectors and aggressively dismissing financial warnings as fear mongering to keep public money flowing into the fraudulent bank. Shortly after becoming president, he appointed UNO's former chief executive to run the country's central bank.

• 1:40:20Tom Bilyeu?

  Oh, God.

• 1:40:21Speaker 02

  Think about that. The person overseeing the bank previously ran the bank. The fox was literally guarding the hen house. We saw the same situation in the West. And guess who was on the hook to bail them out? The taxpayer. And that's not all. Under Peña, Unio Bank started as a niche digital app and suddenly became the government's preferred bank, funneling massive state wealth into his friends' pockets. This included looting pensions by forcing $380 million of workers' health and pension funds into Unio.

• 1:40:43Tom Bilyeu?

  Oh my God.

• 1:40:44Speaker 02

  While the government was pumping public money into Unio, executives were quietly shoveling out in forms of massive, uncollateralized insider loans. The taxes, life savings and pension decisions were used as personal slush fund with no assets left behind to cover the bad debt. By the time it collapsed, 25% of all the bank's deposit consisted of public funds. Sheesh.

• 1:41:02Tom Bilyeu?

  Whoa.

• 1:41:02Speaker 02

  Sheesh.

• 1:41:03Tom Bilyeu?

  That, that's gnarly. Well, then if all of that is accurate, then yeah, one way ticket to jail.

• 1:41:09Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:41:10Tom Bilyeu?

  That's crazy.

• 1:41:11Speaker 02

  Is this a warning though? Cause we, we have a lot of people who have fears about the stable coins, the transition from US dollar to different monetary, um, policies. We also know that the global reserve currency is up for debate now and things like that. So as American wealth is transitioning, whether it's the boomers transition or our transition to a different platform, should this kind of be like a warning sign, a red flag for us before we just kind of too brash move to something?

• 1:41:35Tom Bilyeu?

  No, um, this isn't about moving to digital. This is about the way that you structure the, um, corruption inside of the bank. This was.

• 1:41:45Tom Bilyeu?

  From the headline level that we're getting here, this is a guy that owns, has some ownership in the bank, is funneling more and more of public dollars into that bank, which is obviously going to benefit him, and then not being disciplined in the bank, and the lack of discipline in the bank is the problem. And so when you look at the stablecoin thing, what's good there is they force a one-to-one backing with US treasuries and the stablecoin. So they're not going to be insolvent because as long as they're actually abiding by the law, then they've got a one-to-one backing. So it's the not letting inspectors in, pretending that there isn't a problem, that's, and then obviously being financially incentivized.

• 1:42:29Tom Bilyeu?

  I need to know more about how they were shoveling money back out of the system, but like, all of that's just naked corruption. Moving to digital is what we should be doing. It should be one of the options on the table. The fact that the government is stopping that is an absolute crime against humanity. It is patently ridiculous that we don't allow very well-regulated digital banks, crypto banks, to compete with interest. That is crazy. I cannot, this is how you stifle innovation. Innovation is the very thing that saves you. Now, putting regulations on it, yes, this is not an industry that you're like, hey, do whatever you want. I think that they should be tightening the regulations on normal banks. The fact that

• 1:43:08Tom Bilyeu?

  they don't have to keep any of your deposit on hand is crazy. So yeah, there are things there that we should be doing at a policy level that would shore things up, protect investors more. I think those things would be good. And then obviously fraud everywhere should be immediately stopped. Corruption everywhere should be immediately stopped. And having fraud and corruption within the bank, that one is bad. That one, people gotta go to jail for that.

• 1:43:35Speaker 02

  Speaking of going to jail, Russell Brand is on his way. Yeah, there's a lot. You got it.

• 1:43:43Tom Bilyeu?

  All right. A London jury convicted Russell Brand on November 5th on one count of rape and three counts of sexual assault. If you guys don't know who Russell Brand is, very famous actor, comedian out of the UK, forgetting Sarah Marshall, Get Him to the Greek. I think he did an animated voice in like Madagascar or something, I forget the exact movie, but very popular, been around for ages, and allegations have been circling around in the UK comedy scene apparently for a while, that he was a rapist, and allegations that he ended up being convicted on here stretch back more than 20 years. Now, he for

• 1:44:20Tom Bilyeu?

  one denies obviously that anything was non-consensual, and he and other people are saying that really what happened here is he goes from being the darling of the left, he won some sort of big award in the UK, even while all of the things were largely already being rumored about. He was known for being a Lothario, and despite that, the left was very pro him. But then, when he has a religious conversion and he starts being more conservative, according to him and people that put that forward, that's when they do a documentary that they put out about these allegations. And in the documentary, they encourage women to come

• 1:45:05Tom Bilyeu?

  forward, and you get women that do come forward, and only one of the people that were a part of the legal trial were actively involved in the documentary, but more people end up coming as a result of that. And then, so again, these are allegations that come from roughly 20 years ago, maybe a little bit more than 20 years. He ended up being acquitted on three of the counts, including two other accounts of rape. The rape conviction that he actually did get is from 2009. It was a woman that met him after a gig that he did. The assaults were, include a 2004 birthday party at a London bar and a radio station worker in 2004, 2005. So Brand, at the time of conviction, is 51. He took the stand himself, and his

• 1:45:50Tom Bilyeu?

  line was that while he was obsessed with sex as a young man, that he was very promiscuous and certainly has not done anything to hide that, he never forced anyone. And his lawyers basically leaned on that idea, that the women went to police only years later, and it was after that Channel 4 documentary that I was talking about. So it is, the way that I look at this is, the whole reason that we have a court system is to go through, hear all of this stuff, and then make a decision. And so unless you're gonna throw out the entire justice system, then I think you gotta believe that justice was served. And they didn't convict him on all of them, so this doesn't feel like a witch hunt. It feels

• 1:46:34Tom Bilyeu?

  like somebody that raped somebody and went to trial and got convicted. So that's my read of it. So all of the like shenanigans around it, it's like, is it possible that that's what turned the media against him? Sure, but like, if you've got a provable case of rape, then therein lies the problem. It's not the problem that somebody banged a drum loud enough that somebody finally did something about it. The problem is that that reality was hiding in your background. So yeah, it is obviously brutal to think that there are women out there that have been struggling with this for as long as they have, and justice is what justice is, man. So here we are.

• 1:47:16Speaker 02

  Yeah, eight to 15 years. That's crazy.

• 1:47:19Tom Bilyeu?

  I think we find out the official on Monday. So far, the judge has said that he should expect to serve a lengthy prison term. And it, where it falls, I think the lowest would be four years, if they don't tack on any additional for the assaults that he was convicted of, if they don't give him any extra penalty for the fact that there were multiple women that came forward, that he was convicted of, I think, three different occasions. And so all of that would likely count against him. But if it didn't, I think four is the absolute least that he would get, and then it goes up to life, is the highest that it

• 1:48:01Tom Bilyeu?

  could go. So that eight to 15 is sort of where people are coming in terms of, it's probably gonna be somewhere in there, but unknown. Now, we've seen all kinds of crazy reactions. I don't know if you watched Megyn Kelly. I watched her video on this. Pretty surprised, like how hard in the paint she went to be like, I won't say she went all the way to saying like, he didn't do this, but she's definitely beating the conspiracy narrative way too hard for me. So again, you have to, and look, he will almost certainly appeal this, and so we'll get maybe a second look at what happened, but you do jury selection, you do all of that stuff, and they're telling you, we looked at everything, man. And some of these are not real, and some of them are. None of us were in the courtroom. So I think

• 1:48:44Tom Bilyeu?

  immediately saying, as she is doing very aggressively, that, oh, this is just unbelievable. Okay, so I don't know how much I'm gonna talk about this, because it's pretty rough.

• 1:48:55Speaker 02

  I kinda wanna go, she tweeted it, so let's jump off of it from here.

• 1:48:58Tom Bilyeu?

  All right, read that, and then, yeah.

• 1:49:00Speaker 02

  She, okay, so Megyn Kelly, she admitted that with, that with intimate moments of meeting Russell Brand.

• 1:49:06Tom Bilyeu?

  Within moments.

• 1:49:07Speaker 02

  Within moments of meeting Russell Brand backstage, she used her tongue on his anus as another woman was fellating him.

• 1:49:13Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay, so pause for a second, we have to set this up. So this, this is the woman who he was convicted of raping, has made some very stunning admissions that have people questioning a lot of this. This is the woman that she is speaking of, the one that he got convicted of raping. All right, with that.

• 1:49:37Speaker 02

  She admitted that within moments of meeting Russell Brand backstage, she used her tongue on his anus as another woman was fellating him. She hadn't even been introduced. Later, she went to his place, excited for sex, which they had. The two discussed anal sex before having it. She said it was her first time. Her friend testified that the accuser admitted to her that she agreed to it, told Russell Brand, be gentle. Russell Brand testified that they watched TV together after. When a reporter first contacted accuser about Russell Brand, she said, I'm not sure my story has much in it. I was an idiot, young and stupid, probably as much to blame.

• 1:50:07Tom Bilyeu?

  So, that's gonna obviously pose a lot of questions, but those questions were brought up in the trial. So this is where I'm like, all of this was known, all of this came up in trial, the jury still found the way that they found, and on other ones, they rejected it. So it's not like they were just blindly saying, okay, yeah, he's done all of these. Now, is it possible that you could make a case that this was like, they were gonna find him guilty for something, just because they couldn't see letting somebody off, given the

• 1:50:46Tom Bilyeu?

  accusations? I suppose. But again, you have to throw out like, the entire idea that the trial was legitimate to get to that point. So there'll be an appeal. I know that the judge on the case was, he did something, he interrupted the defense attorney while he was trying to build towards a point, and that is admittedly very unusual. That will almost be, almost certainly be something that is brought up in their attempt to get the retrial, that there was basically undue influence from the judge. So we'll have to let it play out.

• 1:51:28Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, I mean, look, there, there are things that people can certainly point to to say that this warrants a retrial. But again, we weren't in the room. That's the thing that I just keep walking away from. The people in the room said, yes, we heard these arguments. We understand that. And we still believe that at some point in that encounter, regardless of whether they had discussed it, it turned non-consensual, presumably that that was made known to him and he nonetheless did not stop and that there were plenty of people that have come out to say, yeah, like that was like his MO. By the way, there are more charges pending. There are more women. He's going to go through another trial or is likely to go through another trial with other women saying similar things.

• 1:52:11Tom Bilyeu?

  So now, the, to me, another interesting part of this is going to come out is going to be around consent. Consent given, consent withdrawn. One of the other ones, trials he has coming up was with somebody I think he was in a relationship with for like three months. And so, yeah, going to be a lot of, lot of questions around that. All right, everybody, have a very wonderful weekend. I hope that it's amazing for you. I hope you guys are all rocking with me. Let's stay optimistic. These are going to be difficult times, there's no doubt about that. You always control yourself. That's what matters more than anything. The more information you have, the more willing you are to take action. You can minimize downside. You're probably never going to be able to eliminate it, but you can do your best to minimize it.

• 1:52:55Tom Bilyeu?

  Now, if you want to talk upside, join me for my next AI masterclass, Thursday, December 10th at 11:00 AM Pacific time. We just did one yesterday. It twas a banger, if I do say so myself. And we're going to be moving into some new looks at AI. So join me for that. Things are changing so rapidly. I'll keep you guys up to the minute on what's going on. We have a free thing that we give away. Make sure you're there and the whole thing is free. So join me Thursday, December 10th at 11:00 AM Pacific. Finish the year strong with me, boys and girls. I hope to see you there. Have a wonderful weekend. Until next time, my friends, be legendary. Take care. Bye. Let's talk about a pattern that is guaranteed to be killing your progress. You know what you need to do. You need consistent nutrition. We all do.

• 1:53:39Tom Bilyeu?

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