Fed Rate Roulette, Wall Street’s AI Hangover, and Musk vs. Zelensky | The Tom Bilyeu Show

Hey everybody, Tom Bilyeu here. On today’s episode of The Tom Bilyeu Show, we’re diving straight into the economic chaos that’s been gripping the markets and shaking up investors around the globe. Inflation just came in much hotter than expected—numbers not seen since the height of the COVID era—and the fallout is sending shockwaves through everything from the bond market to the tech sector. We’re going to break down the wild swings in the Producer Price Index, why forecasters keep getting caught off guard, and the strange reactions in the bond market that have even veteran investors stunned. Why is money fleeing high-flying AI and chip stocks, just as everyone was expecting endless growth? Where is it all going now, and what does this say about trust in the US government as a safe haven? We’re also scrutinizing the AI narrative—is this a long overdue correction, or are we witnessing the start of a deeper unraveling in tech? Plus, we’re not stopping at macroeconomics—we’ll dissect the controversy behind Elon Musk’s mind-bending Tesla Roadster reveal and what it really signals for innovation, public skepticism, and the very future of engineering. From the growing political battles over energy and immigration to high-stakes drama playing out in Ukraine, we’re pulling no punches as we ask: are we headed for a massive shift in global leadership, or are today’s headlines just the latest spin in a recurring cycle of hype and hysteria? Stick around as Drew and I cut through the noise. We’ll connect the dots between market moves, political intrigue, and the power of narrative in an age defined by runaway tech and rampant uncertainty. Don’t miss out—this is a wild ride you’ll want to be a part of. What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here: Want my help starting a business? Join me here inside Zero To Founder https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show Sign up for my AI Masterclass: AI Masterclass https://tombilyeu.com/ai-masterclass?utm_campaign=Live%20Masterclass&utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=evergreen Follow Me: Instagram:https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok:https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter:https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu Thank you to our sponsors: Tailor Brands: Check out Tailor Brands to launch your business starting at $0 + state fees: https://bit.ly/TailorBrandsSept Quince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpod Incogni: Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code IMPACT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/impact Pipedrive: Get more leads and grow your business. Go to https://www.pipedrive.com/impact and get started with a 30-day free trial. Netsuite: For the first time ever you can try NetSuite Next for free. If your revenues are at least in the seven figures, go to https://NetSuite.ai/Theory https://netsuite.ai/Theory. Butcherbox: Go to https://ButcherBox.com/IMPACT https://butcherbox.com/IMPACT to get $20 off your first box, plus your choice of free ribeye, new york strip, or filet mignon in every box for a year — with free shipping always. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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• 0:59Speaker 02

  Ooh, inflation came in much hotter than expected. And if you analyze or annualize the trend, the numbers are brutal. We're going to be going through that. The AI bubble just registered another massive earthquake that has investors running for the door, but the response has been super weird. The bond market, looking at all the AI distress, if you put it all together, that is deeply humbled Scott Beson. Every investor needs to see what is happening in the bond market. And speaking of things you need to see, Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster reveal was so insane, it seemed fake, and it's completely dividing the internet. Was it a stock pump stunt or real innovation? You guys are going to judge

• 1:43Speaker 02

  for yourselves because we're going deep on that one. Elon is appointing himself the judge of Zelensky as the Starlink Ukraine White House conspiracy gets even crazier. And the Ilhan Omar story just keeps getting worse as the Wall Street Journal drops a new report making bold claims about what is really going on. All of that and more, live today on the Tom, Bill, you show live. Welcome, everybody. All right. You may notice that Drew isn't here. The intro to this show is getting a little too real. So he is skidding in. He'll be joining us in about a half an hour. Until then, we're going to be diving deep on the economy. And shout out, by the way, to you know, I love these guys, Tailor Brands. If

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• 3:12Speaker 02

  more. These guys have got it. All right. It is a wild time out there. Inflation came in much hotter than expected. And if you annualize the trend, the numbers are really getting rough. The producer price index, which is basically wholesale price inflation, not basically, that's exactly what it is. It rose by 1.3% in September. That is the biggest monthly jump since March of 22, which you'll remember, it was bad times back in 22. This was all an echo still out of the COVID era. And it's the second largest jump

• 3:48Speaker 02

  ever recorded. Ouch. Year over year, PPI hit 6.3 against an expected 5.3. You want to know what's brutal? That one is brutal. Core PPI came in at 5% versus an expected 4.4%. Even if you strip out food and energy entirely, wholesale prices still rose by 0.7% in a single month. That's more than double the forecast and the fastest pace in four years. If you're Trump and you're staring down the midterms right about now, ooh, buddy, you are not loving life. All the things that he said that he was going

• 4:29Speaker 02

  to be getting down, they are going in the wrong direction. The consensus for the September month over month PPI was around 0.6%, but it actually came in at 1.3%. Guys, these numbers are wild. Now, the way that things are actually playing out through the markets as a whole, though, is completely unexpected. But the 0.7 monthly miss is a pretty big surprise. Headline PPI typically lands within 0.2 to 0.3 of whatever the consensus is. So being off by 0.7 is very unusual. The last stretch of misses that were of this size,

• 5:09Speaker 02

  again, we're talking back in COVID era, 21, early 22, we had wild supply chain disruptions from COVID. Then the Ukraine energy spike just kept blowing out all of the forecasts. So, man, the world is in such a weird place right now that it is becoming truly difficult to predict where things are going. And when it becomes difficult to predict, the markets are going to be a little bit crazier than normal. Now, what makes all of this embarrassing for the forecasters is that the energy disruption is pretty damn obvious. I don't think anybody is confused about what's going on with the war in Iran. I don't think anybody's confused.

• 5:50Speaker 02

  You can see diesel is hitting record numbers. You can see that pump prices are up 9% in the CPI. Damn. Apparently, what these guys are underestimating is that this was going to work its way through the system much faster and hit much harder than they were expecting. So wholesale gasoline is up 20%, energy is up 10.8% for the month. And then the core, so if you strip out energy and food, that number is still coming in hotter than expected all on its own. So even if you take out Iran, you've still got problems brewing. But still,

• 6:33Speaker 02

  over 80% of the headline was energy. So in terms of this being a surprise, it really shouldn't have caught people so off guard. Wholesale gasoline jumped 20.3% in one month and a diesel record highs. So those increases are going to show up in prices at some point. And apparently that point is now. So it really is weird to me seeing these guys be off, I mean, being off by a normal margin, 0.2, 0.3, sure, fair enough, but they're off by more than double that. So pretty wild miss. Now, the really strange part is that

• 7:12Speaker 02

  given all of the inflation, you would expect bond yields to rip. You'd expect them to be going up, but they didn't. What they did was the exact opposite. So the 10-year Treasury yield fell roughly nine basis points to just under 5.1%, which was its sharpest one day drop since June. It had traded nearly 5.33% just a day ago. So the question is, why? If you want to understand that, we're going to have to look at the stock market and all of the madness that's going on there. Inflation came in hot, but the stock market still got slapped around yesterday. And if you're watching the Asian markets, god damn, those things

• 7:57Speaker 02

  have been nothing but an absolute tsunami of red. And the bond market response was the opposite of what a lot of people were expecting. To be honest, I'll even include myself in that. I've been looking at all of this thinking, ooh, people are not turning to the bond market as a flight from safety. So I would have expected that as you see inflation going up, that you would see people going, well, I've got to be in my stocks because there's, I've got to be doing something to fight inflation. And if I'm going over into the bond market, I can't really trust that the government isn't just going to be printing money to high heaven. And so it is a pretty surprising reaction to the market until you really stop and look at what's going on. So the high inflation and a tech

• 8:42Speaker 02

  sell off ended up doing for the Treasury, what the Treasury has been unable to do for itself. It literally lowered the bond yields. Now, we've been reporting on this like crazy. Beson has just been pouring more and more money into the bond market, trying to tame rates, but it absolutely has not worked. He said since taking office, man, my eyes are just on the 10-year yield. That's the benchmark. Okay, that's going to be the thing that I'm focused on. I'm going to drive that down. I'm the house now. I'm increasing the amount that we're going to buy back. I'm warning you guys, don't bet against the house. I have asymmetric information. I think he may have even said I have perfectly asymmetric information. So I know something you guys don't know. Druckenmiller, his mentor was

• 9:25Speaker 02

  like, bro, what are you doing? You do not want to bet against the market. These guys, the bond market is $32 trillion deep. The entire general account for the Treasury is less than $1 trillion. The little bit of billions of dollars, it's so ridiculous to think these numbers are tiny, but the billions of dollars that he has poured into the market just have not been nearly enough. So despite all of his efforts to push rates down, they've just kept climbing. By September 15th, the 10-year cross 5% for the first time since 2023, and going into yesterday, it was at a full 5.19%. But then what happened?

• 10:09Speaker 02

  The chip stocks took a nosedive. People are really starting to question the AI narrative. Now, when you're in a world where you are so detached from fundamentals, all you have left is the narrative. And as that narrative is beginning to get shaky for a lot of reasons, first of all, I just don't think people can remain euphoric forever. But you've got expectations in terms of the revenue growth in basically OpenAI and Anthropic that are through the roof. And even though Anthropic is now the fastest growing company in history,

• 10:54Speaker 02

  The semiconductor index just fell for a seventh straight session and now sits roughly 20% below its June peak. You've got Nvidia getting beaten about the head, neck and chest. You've got Korea's Kospi, it lost 7.5% in a day. Japan's Nikkei fell 5% and it seems like finally, everybody is waking up to the fact that the companies funding these massive data center build outs have likely borrowed too much. And so companies like CoreWeave now are heading for a 15% weekly loss because all of the people that are expected to just

• 11:34Speaker 02

  endlessly back all of these corporate bonds in order to get the debt that they need to continue this build out of the infrastructure, they're all starting to go, hey, maybe history's got something to teach us here. And every time we've had one of these revolutionary infrastructure build outs where we've got this brand new technology that by the way, really does go on to revolutionize everything, but there's that trough of despair, as I've been calling it now for months, where you end up running into the reality that even though a company like Anthropic is growing faster than any company in the history of

• 12:14Speaker 02

  ever, even though that's true, it's not growing at a rate that's fast enough to keep up with the exuberance of the infrastructure build out. This truly is a tale as old as time. And this is now where people are starting to wake up and say, okay, and please don't think that they're completely abandoning AI. That is definitely not happening. I am not saying that the bubble has burst and it's game over, but I am saying that you are starting to see that narrative buckle. And these guys are now demanding much bigger returns that are forcing companies like CoreWeave, their bonds to not only be at a junk rating, but they're starting to be read as distressed assets. You've got everything playing out

• 12:58Speaker 02

  in the private credit market, which is, I think, most accurately read as people's opinion on what's going on with the AI infrastructure build out and whether the amount of debt that was taken on was the right, the right amount of debt, or whether it was an excessive amount of debt. And what we're seeing now is people are saying, yeah, this is probably an excessive amount of debt. Now, how far does this keep going down? Does this rebound? Nobody knows. I do not have a crystal ball. Nobody does. So anybody that says they know exactly how this is going to play out, ooh buddy, do not believe that. Nobody knows exactly how this is going to go. But the historical trend so far is showing signs of truly being undefeated. And on the back of all of that, the 10-year yield fell 10

• 13:43Speaker 02

  basis points to 5.08%. The 30-year dropped nine basis points and treasuries had one of their best days of the year.

• 13:55Speaker 02

  The whole rally, all of it, happened on the same day that wholesale inflation came in red hot, hotter than expected. We just went through those numbers. Now, normally, hot inflation would push yields up, but because the money that's scrambling out of the chip sector has to go somewhere, what it's doing now is it's saying, okay, I'm actually going to do a flight to safety. Now, if people didn't believe that the US government remained the right place to go in a time of safety, then you wouldn't see this drop in the rates of bonds. But what actually happened is these guys were all

• 14:38Speaker 02

  like, oh, this is the same regime that it's ever been, which is like the big news, right? This has been the whole thing that people have been questioning. Do people still see government bonds as a flight to safety? And if they don't, what's going to happen as the AI bubble narrative starts shifting? Well, what actually happened, at least yesterday, was people said, no, no, no, I still want to go put my money into bonds. And so now you had a bunch of people competing for the bonds. And when people are competing for the bonds, the rates come down. So this actually ends up being interesting because it's the typical move. So if you're like me, and you grow more and more concerned by the day

• 15:21Speaker 02

  that the US bond market is no longer going to be seen as the safe haven, then people would stop treating it as a safe haven and it would just stop being a safe haven because the US would end up having to buy back all of its own debt, which would be wildly inflationary, which would force people either into gold or into the stock market. But if they believe on the other hand, hey, this is still the right place that we want to be, they're going to go there. Now, so that ends up being good news, I think, because it says that the system is still in the same regime, that people still see US bonds as a stable enough place to be. The frightening version, the thing, the part of this story that would have been bad, had this been a repeat of 2022, where stocks and bonds were falling together because

• 16:05Speaker 02

  that leaves you with nowhere to hide. So if you know that you're in an inflationary environment, you've got to be somewhere that's going to protect you from that. And the fact that we're in a moment where the stock market is getting out of pocket, people aren't flying to burying gold in their backyard. Instead, they're still parking their money into the bond market. That is from where I'm sitting as somebody that just wants a nice, easy way to manage their money. This ended up being something super useful. So tech stocks selling off while treasuries rally show that the balancing mechanism that's designed to keep a portfolio balanced is still working. But if Besen is paying attention, this should

• 16:48Speaker 02

  serve as a very clear reminder that the treasury is playing an absolutely losing game by trying to control rates by buying a few billion dollars worth of bonds. Because the system is way too big and way too complicated for that. This is exactly why Druckenmiller was warning him. And the fact is that policy is not driving long bond rates. It just isn't what's happening. What is happening is growth expectations remain the thing that's influencing the bonds. When people think the markets are an only up phenomenon, they're going to demand a higher real yield if you want to take their money out of the markets and into bonds. But when they think that growth may be slowing down, then they enter the

• 17:31Speaker 02

  bond market willingly and you start seeing those numbers come down. Now, the big question is what does this all mean to the AI narrative in the long run? Are people going to say, okay, now we're back at reasonable prices and I'm back in and I see a buying opportunity? Or is this something that's just going to keep going down? And Brad Gersner, if you guys know him, he's often a guest on the All In Podcast, he was talking about this because people were calling him out because he was at one point, obviously heavily invested into AI. He's since been pulling back, but his public facing messaging is still just like super optimism, hey, everything's going to be great. And somebody ended up saying to him in an interview, like, hold on a second, you're telling the people who you manage

• 18:16Speaker 02

  their money for that you actually want to get out. And so what are we supposed to believe? Are you actually optimistic about where this is going? Or do you think that the prices got out of whack? He was basically sort of hemming and hawing and saying, well, listen, yes, when I'm managing other people's money and it's more of a short-term trade, I do think we needed to come out a little bit, rebalance the portfolio, but I'm looking at things and I'm seeing the prices hit something that I think is more appetizing and I may, being the key word, I may start putting money back in. And so that's going to be the big question mark is have we hit an equilibrium or is the number just going to keep tumbling? That's a question on everybody's mind. But at least for right now, the bond market is acting as the ballast

• 19:01Speaker 02

  that it's meant to act as. So, but a pretty wild day and I have not seen people respond in what I would consider the normal way. I had to keep like checking the data. I'm like, this is crazy. This seems crazy. These, the miss that they had was so big. Why are more people not talking about this? So yeah, from everything that I can see, the miss really is unusually large. But the bond market seems to be giving people a place to go. And so right now, there is still that normal dance of, okay, you think things are getting overheated here, you can fly to safety into US bonds and now you've got a place to park it. We'll see how far this goes, but man, this is such a dynamic time, if I were going

• 19:44Speaker 02

  to say it in the nicest, most neutral way possible. But it is a roller coaster of emotions going from, ooh, how far are bonds going to go up as Japan continues to unwind, as France is in massive, like worse than Greece style distress, as the UK is now distressed their bond market because they hold more of France's bonds than anybody else and France is in real trouble. That still has yet to play out. And so what's that going to mean to the global economy if the US is just going to start buying its own debt, buying its own debt and ending up in its own debt spiral, debt death spiral? So we live to fight another

• 20:25Speaker 02

  day, boys. We live to fight another day. But what a wild 24 hours it has been.

• 20:31Speaker 03

  We got two comments I'm going to read.

• 20:33Speaker 02

  Let's go.

• 20:36Speaker 03

  Alfred01 says Besent the poker shot caller and AKA Alpha Kilo says we missing big Jerome Pall yet.

• 20:45Speaker 02

  Are we missing big Jerome Powell? That's a really good question. I would say we're not missing Jerome Powell, because the very point of this is that they're not going to be able to influence this. So you've got the Fed, I think, basically raising rates into a weakening economy, which is if you were getting the inflation based on something that they can actually influence, then it would make sense. But I think right now, you've got Warch acting in a very similar way to what Powell would have done. So I don't think there's a big difference there. I still think there's a big looming question mark about the relationship between the Trump administration and the Fed. So we'll need to let that one play out in the fullness of time.

• 21:30Speaker 02

  I'm maybe a little too conspiratorial on that one, but I am very conspiratorial on that one. So I don't think we're yet seeing anything that's different, right? The whole idea behind bringing Warch on was Trump in no uncertain terms is like, we've got to get these rates down. And in fairness, we really do have to get those rates down. Otherwise, the interest rate on the debt is going to eat us alive. Besen is trying to do everything he can to basically bring liquidity to the long end of the Treasury market, put everything into short-term treasuries. But if rates keep going up, being in short-term treasuries isn't going to help him. So basically, everybody's placing a bet that AI is going to be deflationary. So if I were to imagine, and it's full imagination,

• 22:13Speaker 02

  but if I were to imagine a conversation between Besen and Warch, I assume it would go something like this. Listen, I've got to hike rates now because optically, anything else is crazy. The market had already priced it in. If I come in and violate what the market is expecting, we're going to get a worse reaction than if I give them what they're expecting, knowing I'm going to put a gun to our head in terms of I'm making everything short-term or together, we're making everything short-term, because that's Besen's role. But you're transitioning all the debt to the short-term. That buys me a couple of years, at least on that debt. Obviously, more debt is constantly coming due. But we buy ourselves a couple of years

• 22:57Speaker 02

  to be able to let AI start to take effect. So let me do what I need to do to make sure that people understand that the White House and the Fed are independent, that we're not colluding on all of this. And then you guys have just got to unleash the AI market, and we've got to get that productivity miracle going. But that's when I then turn back to, okay, well, what are investors telling you about the productivity miracle that's coming? And they're saying it's not miraculous enough. And I think that is the big sort of specter that's looming over all of this, or maybe better said, the sword of Damocles that hangs over all of this that could fall at any moment is AI

• 23:42Speaker 02

  is going to be a miracle. But is the miracle going to be big enough? Fast enough, maybe even more important. Because on a 10-year, 20-year time horizon, there's no universe in which this doesn't become the miracle that we're expecting it to be, even if it has already asymptoted, meaning it's never going to get any better. Just distributing it fully through all of the products and services that we needed to go through to start driving prices down, just giving it time to do that is going to be dramatically deflationary. We're already seeing the cost of intelligence dropping dramatically. Computers getting much, much, much cheaper. But you get a weird thing happening,

• 24:26Speaker 02

  which is the revenue that they need as prices go down, that can work against you if you don't make it up on volume. And the historical thing is, this is Jevon's paradox, that as the cost of it comes down, people start using so much more of it that you end up creating more jobs, that ends up being much more widely distributed than it would if it had remained elevated. So this is why predictions, mine and anybody else's predictions about where the economy is going to go is always a crapshoot, because these things are so interconnected. They are so complicated. Japan isn't off the hook. So we've still got all that unwinding, all of that liquidity that supported the market for god knows how long.

• 25:11Speaker 02

  That's all still slowly beginning to dry up. You still have international buyers telling the US Treasury market, yeah, we're not as interested in this as we once were. You still have China and other BRICS nations moving away from US debt as rapidly as they can. So there's no easy solution on offer, certainly no guaranteed win that anybody has. So going back to the original question, am I missing Powell yet? No, because I don't think this has anything to do with it. I don't think they're going to be able to hike rates and open the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 80% of the increase that we saw in the inflation.

• 25:55Speaker 02

  So it's, yeah, you still have that looming specter. And so they're really two separate things that collide into each other. So you've got what's happening with the AI bubble. Okay, that has a huge influence on the bond market, because people are selling. And as they sell, they're going into the bond market. That's lowering the rates there. But then you also have other people around the world moving away from the Treasury market. So it gets wild pretty fast.

• 26:22Speaker 03

  Reptoid says on the note of AI, Tom, there's not going to be any big AI productivity boom, not in regards to revenue generated if the wealthy are refusing to pay any more in wealth taxes. You can't have it both ways.

• 26:33Speaker 02

  Read the second half of that again? That the wealth, say what?

• 26:35Speaker 03

  If the wealthy are refusing to pay any more in wealth taxes.

• 26:39Speaker 02

  Oh, no, that doesn't make any sense. I don't even see how those two things are related. So you've got, think in terms of purchasing power. So if AI makes virtually everything cheaper, like in the way that energy can make everything more expensive or cheaper, it's so foundational. Intelligence itself will do the same thing to everything. So when you look at something like Amazon and the way that they've been able to make things dramatically cheaper by having more intelligent systems, now imagine that you bake intelligence into every aspect of everything everywhere so that you can drive costs down. Now, the thing I imagine you're getting at is that, hey, that's going to put a lot of people out of work.

• 27:24Speaker 02

  And if you have a lot of people out of work, one, that's going to impact the amount of tax dollars that we're actually getting. And so that really does become the big question. And it is an unanswered question. All we can do is look at history and say, what does history tell us? So history is looking to be undefeated in the, whenever you have the revolutionary build-out, the debt becomes a problem faster than the revenue comes in, almost no matter how fast the revenue comes in. That's playing out to be true. But history also tells you that on the flip side of all that, that you end up disrupting a ton of jobs, but you end up creating more jobs than you had before. They are different jobs. And so the people that cannot adapt, they really do get hit with a sledgehammer. There are going to be people,

• 28:07Speaker 02

  be people for whom AI getting distributed widely will be the worst thing that ever happened to them. That just is, historically, that would be historically consistent. So I'm imagining that that is going to be true. There are a lot of people that can't due to lack of intellect or won't due to just usually age, not wanting to reinvent themselves and learn this new technology and all of that. Those people will, I hate to be so naked with this, but I think the reality is those people, the rest of their lives will be largely lives of despair. And they will find themselves migrating into a forced retirement where they're having to lean on the government more and more. Now, the idea that the wealthy

• 28:51Speaker 02

  will be able to pay enough tax to get us out of this is just pure mythology from where I'm sitting. If you look the world over, you're never going to see any example of where that works. The best thing you guys can do is point to somewhere like the Nordic countries. But the Nordic countries do broad-based taxation on everybody. So if you guys are saying, all right, we're going to stop trying to wealth tax the wealthy into oblivion, because there just isn't enough money there, even if you tax them to zero. So if we give up on that and we're just going to say it's going to be a broad-based tax on everybody, okay, well, you can certainly do it. But it would not be my advice. In fact, one of the biggest mistakes I've ever made as an entrepreneur is throwing money at an inefficient system. And we're going to be talking more about this,

• 29:36Speaker 02

  I'm sure, later today with all the fraud that exists in the system. You've got the, who is it? Dr. Oz and J.D. Vance looking at this. They believe they've identified $105 billion already of known annual fraud. So you have a wildly inefficient system where the government is doing way too much. And by the way, we're going to be getting into a third-hour debate on this exact topic. So definitely stick around for that. I don't think we have a problem of the government is doing too little. I think we have a problem of the government is doing too much. And so if you're actually trying to reconcile what the productivity miracle is going to look like, it is, you're going to have to do some austerity, first of all, just to get your debts

• 30:21Speaker 02

  or your deficits down to something reasonable. And then you've got to give time for things to actually get cheaper. So even if people are stagnant from a wage perspective in terms of nominal dollars, that their purchasing power is going up, because like Amazon has made everything cheaper, AI is going to make everything cheaper. So that is at least that hypothesis. So, period.

• 30:45Speaker 04

  Um, hey, everybody.

• 30:47Speaker 02

  Drew, look at that.

• 30:49Speaker 04

  The intro was a little bit.

• 30:50Speaker 02

  Alarm clocks. Yeah, that's exactly what we said. Little too real, little too real.

• 30:57Speaker 04

  The biggest thing about inflation that jumped out to me, 7.4% if you annualize it.

• 31:01Speaker 02

  Yep.

• 31:02Speaker 04

  Sixties and seventies, when it comes to energy, oil, gas, that type of thing in those sectors. The stock market didn't crash, though.

• 31:09Speaker 02

  Yes, it did. The tech, the tech side has gotten smashed, especially if you look globally.

• 31:16Speaker 04

  Is it one of those things that this is the flight of money? Uh, I know Raul Paul talks like the liquidity, just kind of moving around. This is down, let's go over here. Or is this the start of a much bigger, larger economic kind of decoupling crash?

• 31:30Speaker 02

  Well, so the easy answer is, I think if you isolate these two, you'll be able to far better predict what's going on. So if you say, uh, people divesting out of AI is a separate phenomenon to the energy crisis, which is driving, um, the cost of everything up right now. Energy makes up 80%, doesn't make up all of it, which is itself fascinating, but it does make up 80% of that change. So I think those are two separate things. The interesting takeaway that we were talking before you got here is that the bond market,

• 32:03Speaker 02

  uh, had its best day in a long time because people actually chose it as a flight to safety. So that's very encouraging. That means you don't have to be a PhD in the economy like our boy Big Fucking Digler. Is he in the feed today? If he is, Big Diggs, I went through your fucking treatise.

• 32:24Speaker 02

  Which is the right word. Uh, so Big Digglers, for real, for real, will you please start a YouTube channel? It's entirely possible you have cerebral palsy or something, you can't speak and okay, fair enough. Use, uh.

• 32:36Speaker 04

  He's in the chat.

• 32:36Speaker 02

  Okay, use, use an AI avatar if you have to, but you're a fascinating economic thinker. Uh, I'm so excited that you're in this community, that is awesome. But I want to start doing reacts videos to your stuff. Uh, because what you sent me is actually very, very interesting, but it is incredibly detailed. So, um, yes, start a YouTube channel, make this content. He's just gonna try to point me at Michael Every and, uh, the other guy that he bangs the drum on, which is like, that was his sign off, was like, PS, fucking research these guys. Uh, but yeah, no, it'd be very interesting to see him do that.

• 33:11Speaker 04

  Big Diggs Economics, that's a great channel name.

• 33:13Speaker 02

  Literally.

• 33:14Speaker 04

  There you go.

• 33:15Speaker 02

  I, I will be your first subscriber.

• 33:16Speaker 04

  He was Brent Johnson in all caps, that's his first response to everything you say.

• 33:20Speaker 02

  If, if you are at all capable of getting good at content, I think you could actually build a pretty good channel. And we are so hungry for more people to react to. So Big Diggs, let's go. Big Digonomics.

• 33:31Speaker 04

  Nice. Okay, but you're using that to say, and to make a point of his view of economics or what, what was the?

• 33:37Speaker 02

  Um, to be honest, I got so hyped up about convincing him to do it, I forget where I was going with that, but, uh.

• 33:43Speaker 04

  The best day of the bond market.

• 33:45Speaker 02

  Yeah, they're two separate phenomena, they're very separated things. Oh, I was saying, you don't need a PhD like my man Big Digglers. There you go, that, that was the, what took me onto that. So I like the world where investing gets a little more boring. And it's like, hey, when the stock market, when your expectation is the stock market will grow, be in the stock market. When you're expect, and then, by the way, bonds are gonna go up because you're trying to entice people away from the stock market. Because capital is always looking for a return. So, uh, the promise of the bond market is, we're risk free, so we're gonna give you a smaller return, but it's more guaranteed, if you will, you're putting, you're, you're taking the capital risk off the table. Um, so when people think, no, no, no, the stock market's really gonna rip,

• 34:28Speaker 02

  then people want to be in the stock market, bonds become more expensive. Okay, so when the flip is true, fine, that's how it's supposed to work. People don't think that the stock market is going to grow. And so they go out and they're like, I'll just take the risk free rate of return because I think that my money's safer there. And so when that calculus holds and you have a place to go, then you're in good shape. When you're forced to go into things like gold and shit like that, it starts to be a bigger signal of distress because gold is where you go when you're like, not panicking, but you're trying to just be in the wealth preservation game. Um, you don't trust anybody. And so, uh, heavy gold buying is usually a sign of distress.

• 35:06Speaker 04

  Yeah, and there was a report yesterday that five of the big banks entered into a bear market. So when I'm, I'm seeing in every kind of corner of the stock market in one way or another, everybody's like, oh no, it's just this story or it's this. So when you see a bunch of separate events, I guess that's why I'm trying to start tidying them together to see like, is this?

• 35:26Speaker 02

  You can tie them together in terms of the effects that they'll have, but I think, um, and this is very, very true of, uh, economic commentators, myself included. You're trying to take a very, very complicated system and find a way to talk to people about it or to simplify it enough that you can actually put together a portfolio strategy. Like imagine me on a call with, um, the guys that actually invest my money, right? I'm not the one going in and doing the individual investments, I've got a team for that. And so in those conversations, it's like, they need to speak to me in narratives and I need to speak to them in narratives. Like, uh, at a grand scale, here's what I think is gonna happen in Japan. At a grand scale, here's what I think is gonna happen with the bond market. This is what I think is gonna happen with AI.

• 36:08Speaker 02

  But it's these ultimately, um, relatively simplified explanations of what's going on so that you can actually make decisions. And as a side note, this is where AI becomes interesting because it doesn't have to oversimplify things. It really can hold all of those insane patterns in its head at once and probably get far more accurate with its predictions. Especially if it can start mapping things like, I guarantee humans are chaotic in a way that's mappable once you fully understand the state of all the individual inputs. And so it's just that, that, that system is far too complex for humans to understand. And so we just rough it out to, well, typically humans behave in this way when this, when the chessboard looks like this.

• 36:50Speaker 02

  And so in chess is known as chunking, you look at like, the whole chessboard is one thing. Instead of looking at, you know, I mean, there's like billions, sometimes trillions of different, uh, back and forth plays that can play out. This is where people say there's more moves in chess than there are atoms in the universe, that kind of thing. So you start just chunking the board and going, okay, yeah, I get how roughly this is likely to be played in this way. But when people go up against AI, they'll say it plays like an alien. The reason it's playing like an alien is actually can think through, uh, far more of those moves than you can. And so, uh, it becomes very difficult when you sort of have to oversimplify things to play against something that has a far more nuanced understanding of all the different variables.

• 37:33Speaker 02

  And so the more we can break these up into separate narratives, the more fidelity we have to predict where things are going. The more it becomes one narrative, the less likely you are to be accurate.

• 37:46Speaker 04

  Got you. All right, we'll keep monitoring the market. I feel like there's a lot of volatility happening in general, whether it's the war, whether it's the banks, whether it's the bond market, whether it's gold and, uh, precious metals.

• 37:57Speaker 02

  This has got to be one of the most volatile periods, I mean, for sure, since the seventies. Um, since World War II, maybe. So it is largely predicated on, um, a, a small handful of things. AI is the single most powerful technology humans have ever had access to. Okay, think about how much the internet revolutionized everything in terms of what performs in the stock market, in terms of how we live our daily lives. If I'm right, and many other people are saying this is not like some novel thing I'm putting forward, but if I'm right, that AI is the single most powerful tool that humans have ever had access to, then it's going to dwarf the things that we've seen before this.

• 38:41Speaker 02

  And so you've got that, you've got the human tendency to be overly exuberant on real technologies. So when you have an actual revolution taking place, people overindex on it. They, um, confuse themselves about how fast it's actually going to happen. So you've got that playing out. Then you've got, um, what's going on in the rest of the market, which is everything else is actually shrinking. Now, is it shrinking because the economy really is stagnant or really is declining? And it's just all being masked by AI or is AI just sucking liquidity out of the system? You have war in Russia and Ukraine, which is a major energy producer. You have war in the Middle East, which is obviously the biggest energy producer outside of the US.

• 39:23Speaker 02

  So it's like, yeet, you've got a lot of destabilization. Oh, and by the way, all in the middle of populism where even the US is trying to decide whether it's capitalist or socialist, which is another part of the debate we're gonna be doing in the third hour. So, or I should say, um, we're gonna be reacting to a debate that happened on this topic. So it is, um, there are several things that are coming together, uh, up to and including a lot of fear, uncertainty and doubt. So, yeah, it's wild. And then AI, just to your Raul Powell point, AI has pulled so much liquidity out of the system that there are derangements in the system that are just based on that.

• 40:00Speaker 04

  So we're still unwinding that trade from the beginning, let alone the current economic.

• 40:04Speaker 02

  Yeah, and how that unwinds, if it unwinds, is going to be one of the most important things to pay attention to. The only thing more important is just what's going on in the bond market.

• 40:14Speaker 04

  Pro T Keetit, I probably messed your name up. They said liquidity equals trust. So AI is not increasing at trust at this point, which I think is a great way to put it. Like, people are more skeptical versus.

• 40:27Speaker 02

  Well, let's be very clear.

• 40:29Speaker 04

  By the money, the flow of money.

• 40:30Speaker 02

  In the West, we are more skeptical. China isn't retarded. So China is not skeptical. China is like, if I remember right, there are people that are afraid of AI is down in the 20 percentile. So it's like 22 or 24 or somewhere around there. In the US, it's like around 80. So unfortunately, in America, we are telling ourselves a very moronic story about AI. And I'm watching that happen in technology, especially in game development. Like, the game dev community, sorry, the gamers are reacting extremely negatively to AI. It's purely emotion. It is not based on, I think, the facts on the ground.

• 41:11Speaker 02

  And so when you look at the inevitable future of everything, unless somebody's taking the "everything made here is made by human hands" approach, which will exist, but it will be a very small niche. Everybody else is going to say, "We've made it cheaper, better, and faster by using AI." Because once again, forget the "A" part and just think about the "I" part. It is intelligence itself. And so right now, I believe the right way to think about AI from a "where is it going to go? How's it going to be integrated" perspective is that it is a tool that unlocks a previously inaccessible amount of human creativity. So I understand why people don't like things that look like AI,

• 41:55Speaker 02

  because it looks worse than what humans can do. But when you get a human that does something extraordinary, and I can't remember if we talked about this on camera or off camera, but there was that director, I think their name is Guo, that made a Harry Potter fanfic in anime style. That was fucking awesome. And why do I think it's awesome? Because it made me feel something. And so, once people start realizing, "Oh, very talented directors, who would have otherwise been held back by the fact that they didn't have the money to aggregate a team, they now don't have to. And they've got the taste to give you shots that look awesome. They've got the directing prowess to make you feel something. And we'll see more and more of that. And so, as people go,

• 42:39Speaker 02

  "I just want to feel something, and that thing made me feel something. Oh, it was made by AI." That will go away. And then also, old people, shout out, like, "Guys, if I could just help you a little bit here. When I was in film school, I refused to watch Toy Story. Because I was like, this is going to kill traditional animation. And traditional animation was something that I revered. It was always something I wished that I could be good at. And so, instead of realizing, "Oh, this is going to take over, because it's a superior form of animation, in terms of the majority of people prefer it, which is why it's now the dominant form."

• 43:15Speaker 02

  When you double down and say, "I just want the old head way", what ends up happening is the world passes you by. And this is exactly what happens to old people and why they always become irrelevant. They always become irrelevant. Because they are so out of step with what young people want. And young people have the vitality and the excitement and the cellular energy and the psychic energy to go and build the new cool shit. And they capture the momentum in culture, always and forever. Like, this is just the way that evolution has built us. And so, if you don't think the next generation of kids is going to grow up being like, "Oh, I can try to go convince Tom, who has money to hire me, or I can just fucking do it myself.

• 44:00Speaker 02

  I'm going to go do it myself. Fuck out of here." And so, they will just lean on it. Plus, they'll grow up in a world where the vast majority of what they see is AI. So, yeah, I understand why people try to fight against these trends, but you will always lose. You'll lose as hard as Besen trying to fight a $32 trillion market with $900 billion. It doesn't work.

• 44:21Speaker 04

  Did you end up watching Toy Story?

• 44:23Speaker 02

  I did, of course, and it's amazing.

• 44:26Speaker 04

  This one wasn't that bad, too. We didn't need it.

• 44:29Speaker 02

  Yeah, I agree.

• 44:30Speaker 04

  It wasn't that bad.

• 44:30Speaker 02

  Yeah, I think people may be over-indexed on the "we didn't need it" thing. It's like, look, the first series trilogy, enjoy it. It's breathtaking. And now, it's a universe. And you either want to be in that universe with those characters, or you don't. Now, admittedly, I am a male soap opera guy. So, for me, the fact that One Piece is over 1,000 episodes is dope. And I love that I can keep going back and going back and going back. And every time I create a world, I'm always like, "Oh, now I want to go explore that side character, and I want to like, follow him on his journey." And so, yeah, I don't have beef with people continuing to play in the same sandbox. You've got to keep it vital. You can't do what happened to the Marvel Cinematic Universe, where it just starts getting boring.

• 45:14Speaker 02

  Like, you've still got to somehow capture that upstart energy. You've got to be able to do something where it forces discipline, forces creativity. But I really believe what people are responding to is, "It's just not as good of a story." And if it's just not as good of a story, then fine, fair enough. But it's like, if you're able to tell a compelling story that makes me see something in myself, the human condition, whatever, and I'm like, "Whoa, I really just went on an emotional journey. That's awesome, and it helps me understand my own life better." I don't care whether it's in the same universe, not in the same universe, doesn't matter. Bad storytelling is the problem.

• 45:46Speaker 04

  I'm with you on that. We have to jump over to the Roadster reveal, because this felt like AI. Like, I'm hearing it, I'm seeing it. I'm like, "Oh, no, this is definitely computer-generated."

• 45:55Speaker 02

  Dude.

• 45:56Speaker 04

  But, yeah, let's pull this up. So, he jumped the car and went up a wall. It was driving vertically. It was driving upside down at one point. The fact that it stopped in the middle of the ramp.

• 46:06Speaker 02

  It can stop upside down.

• 46:08Speaker 04

  It's wild.

• 46:09Speaker 02

  This car stops upside down. Like, so the fact that this has divided the internet is one of the craziest things I've ever seen in my life. Everybody should be over the moon. But the reality is, that's not quite what's happening. Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster reveal was so insane, it seemed fake. And yet, somehow, despite being that cool, it's dividing the internet. People want to know, is this a stock pump? Is this just a stunt? Is this real innovation? What is this? Now, I hope you guys are looking at your screens right now, because if you miss this, this was one of the most insane things I have ever seen in my life. This car can leap like Knight Rider. It can leap over semi-trucks.

• 46:54Speaker 02

  It had a whole stack of like, four or five vehicles. Here it is. It's going to do a kickflip over these things. That's a car, man. That is a car using compressed air to glide. The one thing is, I'm not going to give them, "This is not a flying car. This is a gliding car. It's very impressive. I am completely blown away." But until I can actually fly a couple hundred miles, you can't say that this is a flying car. But this is one of the coolest things I've ever seen in my life. People should be over the moon. But I know that people hate Elon Musk so much that even this, people are, they're going to be cynical. I've seen so many cynical takes on this. "This is never going to ship.

• 47:38Speaker 02

  This guy is just trying to pump his stock." So, hold on. Hold on. The guy who not only essentially made

• 47:49Speaker 02

  non-combustion engine electric cars, made them cool, and built a massive business on the back of that, when you told him he was never going to be able to do it, and then said, "I'm going to make rockets reusable." People said he was never going to be able to do that and did it. Then he said, "I'm going to catch this shit with chopsticks." And he did that. Then, he makes the car. It can stop upside down. It can kickflip over a semi. And people are still like, "Yeah, but he'll never be able to fix it." Bless you.

• 48:16Speaker 04

  Thank you.

• 48:16Speaker 02

  That is the weirdest response to seeing somebody with the most extraordinary track record of delivery ever that I can imagine. Now, will he hit the timelines? History tells you no. No matter what he says now, history tells you he's going to miss the timeline by a lot. And by the way, I believe that this happened nine years after he started taking deposits. That's crazy. That's a lot of faith in my man. I'm very impressed. I am not putting down a deposit. First of all, I am 100% expecting people to get killed in this thing. So, let's start there. But nonetheless.

• 48:55Speaker 04

  Air jump in the middle, and somebody just goes right off the side.

• 48:58Speaker 02

  You can't let that on the street.

• 48:59Speaker 04

  No way.

• 48:59Speaker 02

  There's no universe in which people are like, "No, no, no, it's fine. You do a kit flip down the freeway." Which someone will do. Somebody is that big of an asshole. So, absolutely brace yourselves for that. So, whether this ends up actually being a street-legal car or whatever, probably not. But what it shows you from a technological standpoint is like, think of this as the showroom car that they never actually planned to like, put out on the street. When they go to an actual production model, like, to give you an idea, they have said publicly that the one that can hang upside down and do the flip and all that, that is invitation-only. You cannot just like, put in an order. No way. I can't even imagine how expensive that car is going to be. So, that's not the thing that you're going to see driving down the street. The thing that you're going to see driving down the street

• 49:45Speaker 02

  will be a much, much, much more tame version of that. That is almost certainly true. But the odds that you see that body car with some of those features tame to be legal,

• 50:00Speaker 02

  currently, by the way, is at 9%. So, I think it was Polymarket. That gives them a 9% chance of actually going into production. I would assume on the timeline that they named, which was, I want to say 2030? It was only a few years out. Maybe two. So, okay, fair enough. Them hitting that in that timeline is probably pretty low. But. That car hitting the road in some street legal version, I would say I would not bet against that, no way. But it really is incredible. It can do up to two Gs of suction. Of suction, man. Yeah, I still don't understand how they pulled that off, but nonetheless, they did. Tesla said that it clocked in at zero to sixty in point eight one seconds.

• 50:44Speaker 02

  It actually didn't even look that impressive. It hits sixty miles an hour so fast, it only goes like thirty yards. It might have been a little more than that, but not a lot. It's just unbelievably fast. And it looks like it has jet engines behind it, but it doesn't. It's all air compression. So you've got the performance package, it's two seats. They say road ready, we'll see. The road ready version, I think, gets to sixty in one point six seconds, so still lightning fast. If you guys have ever read in the whatever ludicrous mode in a Tesla, it actually doesn't feel good. Gives you, me anyway, like a really weird headache. So too fast for my taste, but...

• 51:25Speaker 04

  Do you have a sense of sickness?

• 51:26Speaker 02

  Not really, no. But I could actually feel my brain moving, which is almost certainly true, by the way. Your brain is almost certainly pressing against the back of your skull when you do that, which is almost certainly what creates that feeling. So, yeah, this thing is crazy. If you get the rocket version, only has one seat, thrusters all the way around. He says that it's gonna get to sixty in like point five nine seconds? I think he was saying he wants the top speed to be half the speed of sound. It's crazy. Whether this becomes a production car or not, to me, is like not nearly as interesting as, look at what we can build. And the reason I think this is so important for everybody to open their heart to, to embrace,

• 52:11Speaker 02

  is this reminds all of us that when, instead of everybody just making software or financialized products, if we start actually engineering things, you can do truly extraordinary things. And as AI helps us unlock mathematics, which again, is the computation of the universe, now all of a sudden, we're going to be able to do more things. And that was one of the things that I enjoyed about hearing him talk about this, is he's talking in mathematics. And so, hearing him talk about the different equations that make this possible, and what you have to master and all this stuff, is very, very interesting. And as AI continues to unlock more and more of that, what is going to become possible? And the future that we were all promised, you know, starting back in whatever, the twenties

• 52:54Speaker 02

  and forties, is actually becoming real. And that, to me, is the exciting part. So did it happen as fast as anybody wanted? No, it did not. But is it far cooler than I thought it would be? Yes. I actually could not believe what I was watching. It just felt so fake, it was so weird. I had to like get other people, like, are we really seeing what we're seeing? Like, this is wild, is that thing hanging upside down? Like, it's very, very cool. So I hope you guys are as excited as I am, just to see what's possible. Hopefully, this will inspire another generation of entrepreneurs right now. Kids that otherwise would have just gone into finance or software, instead of doing that, that will go into actually creating things.

• 53:36Speaker 02

  And the more that we manufacture here in the US, the more sovereign we are as a nation, the more likely we are able to stand our ground against China. Just the ability to create and to build is just everything, man. Getting people re-excited about that is really, really something I'm excited about. So I hope you guys share in that enthusiasm. It's a big moment.

• 53:58Speaker 04

  Markets were mixed on the announcement. Tesla's currently down one percent as a whole, but there are some speculation and some rumors happening that a Tesla SpaceX merger could be announced as early as December. The most likely structure, SpaceX acquires Tesla in an all-out stock deal, with Tesla shareholdings hitting about a point seven share X, SpaceX shares per Tesla share, plus a likely premium. Barclays say Musk will own about thirty percent, thirty-seven percent of the combined company, with roughly fifty-six percent of the voting power.

• 54:30Speaker 02

  It's wild. One thing that Elon Musk doesn't get a lot of credit for, because it's the part of the world that I think everybody finds a little bit icky, but navigating the world of power such that you're able to aggregate that kind of capital, that you're able to manage all of the people that are constantly trying to do hostile takeovers, shareholder activism, all of that stuff. He's been fired as a CEO before, he's been denied his compensation package, and yet he manages to keep all of this stuff together. If you guys haven't watched Succession, that gives you a glimpse into what it actually looks like to have shareholders, them flying out to meet with you, to try to pressure you, to do things.

• 55:14Speaker 02

  And he's able to not only do all the engineering, but keep all of that in check. It's really, really pretty incredible. You can set aside whether you like that humans play that game or not, and yet stand back and go, whoa, that would not be easy. The number of public companies that this guy has been a part of is extreme. The depth to which he's plugged in to global, like, markets in terms of being able to raise capital, the ability to get global human capital, it's unbelievable. I mean, it really is. I don't know that we've ever seen anything like this, in terms of, it's part of it, it's not just him, but the way the world has all come together, the world's so small, there's

• 55:59Speaker 02

  so much interconnectivity, that capital markets are so global, but wow, it is, it's wild. I will just say this, there will be TV shows made about this guy. Whether they happen now, or he clamps that down for the foreseeable future, but we will eventually get the Succession version of someone who is, they happen to be from South Africa, that kind of thing, is gonna be absolutely wild. And I think seeing behind the scenes of how this kind of stuff actually happens is gonna be pretty incredible. But yeah, it's phenomenal to be on this timeline.

• 56:39Speaker 04

  It's also interesting, because Elon has caught himself up in the news, especially with everything that's going on in Ukraine. It seems that Elon and Zelensky do have a bit of a beef now, so it seems like he might have had a little bit more, a little bit more to do with what's happening in Ukraine than we are being led on to believe.

• 56:59Speaker 02

  Yeah, my question is, is the call coming from inside the house? So, at this point, basically Elon is appointing himself the judge of Zelensky as a Starlink Ukraine White House conspiracy is just going nuclear. October tenth, Trump tells reporters, it's time for Ukraine to get a new president, we've heard him say it before, he's been on that bandwagon for a while, but he went really quiet about it for an extended period of time. Now Trump sort of seems to be like going on to the Russian side, like what the hell is happening? And now Elon Musk is getting in the mix, and he's basically, I think he replied under a White House video, but his quote was, Zelensky's gone too far. And then in another one, he says, I agree, in reference to getting rid of Zelensky, he

• 57:44Speaker 02

  says, time for Ukraine to get a new leader. Now, my question is, is that because he just knows something about what's going on that we don't? Is it because he is having a, like, just deeply realistic look at the number of people that are dying on the front lines? Because he was on, oh god, who is the interviewer? I cannot believe I'm blanking on his name, Lex Friedman. So he was on the Lex Friedman Show two or three years ago, and he was saying, like, listen, there's just so many people dying, that when Lex was pressing him, he kept saying,

• 58:26Speaker 02

  look, all I know is, don't send the, what'd he say, the flower of the Ukrainian youth to die on the front lines. And so, is it that? And that's what's causing him to say, like, listen, I get it, you guys are gonna be giving up territory, and that is absolutely heartbreaking, but you're not going to be able to push back Russia, and so it's time to just draw new lines, have a negotiated peace and be done with it? Is it that? Or, let's get dark for a second, is it that the White House, driven by Trump, is now just mad that he's not able to get what he wants, which is lower diesel prices, which is an end of the war, so that he can say, see, I ended another war?

• 59:08Speaker 02

  And now, because, again, this is speculation, but is it that you've got Elon Musk going, ooh, I got a good thing going now with the Republicans, with Trump specifically, I don't wanna get off this train, and so I'm gonna make sure that I do anything and everything that I can to keep the Republicans in power, keep myself in good standing with this administration? And so, if you're telling me that you need me to make a few changes to my satellites so that Ukraine gets the message that it's time to settle, then so be it. I don't know. I'm not inside his mind, maybe it's all of the above, I have no idea.

• 59:51Speaker 02

  But you've got Ukraine's military getting Starshield terminals, just cutting out on them, with anything moving faster than a hundred miles an hour, but they are claiming, they had things that were going, I think it was sixty-eight miles an hour, and they were still getting cut off. And now, there are unnamed sources, but there are unnamed sources being cited as saying, no, no, no, this is coming directly from the White House. The White House made the request, we want these things disrupted. If you're gonna speculate, I just wanna keep being clear that this is speculation, but if you wanna speculate that what's really going on is Trump is like, alright, enough is enough. He understands that he has very little leverage with Russia.

• 1:00:36Speaker 02

  He's not gonna be able to get Putin to do what he wants. Plus, again, speculation, but if he really does have the strong man fetish that he really does seem to have, uh, he might just find himself with more emotional draw towards Putin. And so he's like, alright, I'm gonna get a negotiated settlement. I think he has actually said out loud, something, Ryan, fact-check me here, but I think he said out loud that Putin's easier to deal with than Zelensky. So you put it all together, he wants that peace, he wants the energy facilities to stop getting hit in Russia, which Zelensky keeps doing. And so, okay, cool, I wanna be able to get my Nobel Peace Prize. I've gotta put an end to this. I also want things to be looking better at the midterms.

• 1:01:18Speaker 02

  I wanna get these prices down. Putin's easier guy to deal with, fine. Forget the fact that he's a dictator that invaded a sovereign, democratic, corrupt though it may be, uh, country. Like, I'm, I'm on his team now. We just gotta shut this fucking guy down.

• 1:01:33Speaker 04

  They did say that.

• 1:01:35Speaker 02

  Yeah. So, wish you had been able to correct me. Uh, but there you have it. So, that feels like it has way too much internal logic to not at least be taken seriously. So, when you put all of this together, uh, it really does start to look like what you have is the White House putting, uh, cooperating with Starlink and Starlink cooperating with the White House. I won't even say pressuring them, but they are seeing eye to eye for whatever set of reasons, uh, to disrupt Ukraine's ability to effectively run the attacks on Russia that they need to bring him to the table. Now, I think I pulled it, so if you can find this, but Zelensky was talking about, um, he's like, we're losing a powerful ally in the US.

• 1:02:19Speaker 02

  Ah, there's another one. We, we can play this one while we, um, look for the other one. But here's what he had to say when he was talking about this whole thing with Piers Morgan.

• 1:02:28Speaker 05

  It's a pity that we are losing, uh, we are losing strong partner. So, this is my opinion, and...

• 1:02:38Speaker 02

  You think you're losing America?

• 1:02:39Speaker 05

  Yeah, but, but not because of us. We, I mean, this, we can't be weak. Otherwise, we can't survive. Otherwise, we will, we will just, we are not selling our country. Look, guys, it's not about business for us. It's just our life. And this is our country, it's our body. So, our home, our children. And, and this is very important for us. That's why it's painful. When President Trump chooses one side, not, not our side, but we are okay that he's in the middle, but if you're in the middle, you have to stay in the middle. Not on the wrong side. I think his advisors are wrong. I don't know who, who is pushing him not to the right side.

• 1:03:22Speaker 05

  This is not right side of history.

• 1:03:25Speaker 02

  So, I, I'll be really honest. I am deeply empathetic to somebody who, uh, their country's been invaded, they're standing up for themselves. You've got, you become, uh, a proxy battle between, for sure, Russia and Europe. You're also involved in some very weird love triangle with the US. Uh, and you're just trying to stand up for your country. And so, man, I'm curious. I don't know if you guys or if anybody in chat has the thing that I'm missing, because my, yeah, that's the one. My instinct, my instinct keeps coming back to that we should have just, uh, an emotional position that we hope Ukraine does well. I get if we don't wanna be involved, but that the default emotional stance should be like,

• 1:04:10Speaker 02

  Ukraine should be making that decision. If Ukrainians wanna fight this war, it's their war to fight, and that I would be fighting tooth and nail for the US. So, I don't understand, like, if China, uh, this has been the question put to me before, if China invaded California, how would I react? I'd react like a fucking psychopath. Like, I'd kill every single, uh, attacking military personnel on your shores. All of them gotta die. Like, it would just be that. And I don't understand why we look at Ukraine and we're like, alright, enough's enough. You're fucking up our gas prices. It's like, bro, that, that you can't understand, that these guys wanna stand up for themselves and fight, is so crazy to me. And then, I know I bring this up every time,

• 1:04:53Speaker 02

  but then seeing people map Russia, Ukraine differently than they map, uh, Israel, Palestine, is wild. I don't, I don't understand that.

• 1:05:02Speaker 04

  Alright, well, this is Zelensky sitting down with FT, also talking about the conflict.

• 1:05:05Speaker 05

  United States and Europe can do it, of course, I'm sure. I'm sure. I, I said to President, we can do it very quickly. Yeah, if you will not close Starlink for us, if you will open Starlink on the territory of Russia, we will destroy his ballistic launchers. And that's it. For him, that's it. Why? He will sit and speak. And I will not, I will not destroy any energy objects. I don't need it. Yes, ballistic, this is only one thing. He can't do anything on the territory of Ukraine for today. Only with big losses, he can move one kilometer, two kilometers,

• 1:05:43Speaker 05

  10 kilometers, and, you know, a lot of losses, uh, the result of these kilometers. So, that's why, that was my signal. Give us Starlink, open it for us. But they closed it. They didn't make it wider, they make it smaller. So, it's...

• 1:06:06Speaker 02

  That, that's really, uh, certainly a fascinating development. Now, I had never considered the fact that, um, Starlink is closed over Russia. And so that means for these guys, doing a lot of their targeting, they're not able to be as precise inside of Russia as they could be if Starlink was actually still working for them over Russia. And then they would really be able to, with pinpoint accuracy, take things out. Now, fair enough, if the US is like, oh, hell no, like, we're not gonna get involved in that. We're not going to allow you to use our targeting systems, whether they're civilian targeting systems or not. We're not gonna let you use our targeting systems over, uh, a, you know, a country that we're not at war with, as that would be seen as provocative.

• 1:06:46Speaker 02

  Okay, fine. Um, but to now narrow his ability to use it even in Ukraine is pretty rough. Now, I don't know if there are other analysts that would look at that and agree that if he took out their ballistic missiles, that then Putin would come and sit down at the table. That I don't know. And I don't know what Zelensky is like. Maybe he really is. Like, he's presenting himself as very calm and rational to the rest of the world, but inside of Ukraine, they're all freaking out and screaming, please, God, will somebody get this guy out of office so we can just settle and stop sending our boys to die on the front line? All of that's entirely possible. We're not on the ground. We're being propagandized at all times. Uh, so, I don't know what the real answer is there, but in terms of my, like, sort of just natural emotional reaction,

• 1:07:29Speaker 02

  it's like, at a minimum, you should be wishing him well. Like, yeah, defend your country. Now, uh, further twist on this. If you guys know the AFD. So, this is the, um, right-leaning party. People categorize them as far-right. I don't know that that's accurate, so I'll just say they are the right-leaning party, uh, in Germany, and they're, they have a co-lead. Yep, you pulled this one up fast. So, I assume she's speaking in German, so I'll just recap it. But, um, what she's saying is basically, yeah, we've gotta, like, pull our support from Zelensky. They cannot beat Russia. Russia is going to win, and so what are we even doing here? So, given that they are now, um, growing more and more popular by the day in Germany

• 1:08:13Speaker 02

  and have a real shot at taking over the government there, I think in two years, um, it could get very weird for Zelensky if the most powerful military, and I think they're still the biggest economy in, um, in Europe, if they end up saying, nah, we're, we're done with Zelensky, he's on his own, yo.

• 1:08:34Speaker 04

  Where do you think the tide turned? Like, how did we get here? Cause I remember, beginning of the year, end of last year, Zelensky doesn't have the cards, him and Vance and Trump, you don't got a suit on, now you asking us for money. Okay, that was that. Then I feel like we swung the other way. We were in support of him, and then now we're going back. I seen some think pieces and some talking heads on Twitter saying he can't do anything in Iran, so his next bet is to try to figure out Russia, Ukraine again. Kind of kicking up old, texting an old ex, seeing if I could figure this out. But is there anything you've seen on your side that's causing, it seems like this recent swing against Ukraine towards Russia in support of that side more?

• 1:09:09Speaker 02

  Unfortunately, this seems in keeping with Trump's personality, which is, I wanna get something done. Uh, whoever's gonna help me get it done, you're my friend. If you can't help me get it done, you're my enemy, even if historically it seems like you should be my friend and not my enemy, and it's just pure, um...

• 1:09:27Speaker 02

  I have an outcome I want and the ends justify the means. And so to get my peace prize, to get my cost down, to show people that I'm strong and effective. If I've got to turn on the guy that I, you know, think morally is more aligned with me, uh, fuck it, I will. And Trump, if he is really mapping this as, well, I'm having good conversations with Putin and my conversations with Zelensky go nowhere. Then he's going to start leaning that way. Now, call me cynical, but let's all remember how Putin came up. Putin came up as KGB. Read Putin as like a incredible student of human psychology. As somebody who is incredibly effective at getting what they want.

• 1:10:12Speaker 02

  If they've got to blow your plane up, um, you know, the guy that ran, uh, wow, God, what was that guy's name? This was like a year ago now. They took him out. He was running a division of the military for them. They was like a contractor. Oh, somebody in chat knows for sure, for sure. Uh, so anyway, he took him Wagner, I think Wagner. Um, so blew up his plane, poisons people routinely. Whenever something goes wrong, all of a sudden, uh, military leaders are slipping out of fifth story windows. It's like, this guy will get shit done. That's the guy you think is being honest with you on the phone? When you're like, hey, can we bring this to a conclusion? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, no problem. It's all good. And then as you actually try to get that across the finish line, you think he's going to do anything that isn't in his best interest? If he sees that Germany is like, nah, fuck them.

• 1:10:57Speaker 02

  The US is like, nah, fuck them. Is he going to be like, cool, I'm done? Yeah, peace settled. Or is he going to be like, well, we would, we would have, that would have been okay. A couple of months ago, yes, I did say it, I was interested back then, but now, right? So I don't look at Putin and go, well, I bet you can just trust everything he says. So that's the part where I'm like, yo, this is a former KGB officer who has taken an iron fist over one of the most like hardcore countries on planet earth. Imagine being the dude in the nineties where all hell breaks loose. You've got just gangs everywhere. You've got oligarchs snatching everything up.

• 1:11:39Speaker 02

  And this bear wrestling motherfucker from the KGB rolls up and is like, no, no, no. You guys are going to do what the fuck I say. And starts disappearing people, poisoning people, like in other countries, by the way. I'll poison your ass in the UK. I don't give a fuck. It's, this is not the guy that you go, I bet he's just completely above board. He is a master of propaganda. So yeah, I, I read him very differently apparently than the Trump administration.

• 1:12:07Speaker 04

  I don't know, and I gotta give you credit to your point about the comp, the comparisons between Israel and Palestine. Because to me, it seems that this is existential for Ukraine. Our borders were invaded, we're right there. And if Ukraine is taken, the whole EU is now one step away. So I can understand where Germany and France and the UK are a bit more adamant to make sure that Zelensky stays in power and Putin gets pushed back. So is it up to, is America helping by kind of switching sides? I feel like we're putting more pressure on the.

• 1:12:36Speaker 02

  Are we helping? You, you have to tell me where are we trying to end up for me to know if we're helping or hurting? If you're like, the war needs to end, even if Ukraine falls to Russia, I don't give a fuck. Uh, then we're helping right now. Because we are certainly, at least in soft ways, coming down on Putin's side. Um, now, will that actually put an end to the war? It might. That, that might just be the hard truth we all have to face that, yeah, sorry, you're going to give up some of your territory. And it is what it is, stop bitching, look forward. And that's the part where I'm like, I don't hear that energy with, uh, the Palestinians, out of anybody's mouth of my own, by the way. Um, where it's like, yeah, everybody's like, well, I get why they would do whatever the fuck. Up to and including terrorist attacks, blowing themselves up, it's just all resistance.

• 1:13:20Speaker 02

  It's like, well, if you've got that same energy for, um, Ukraine, great, you're at least consistent. But if you flip flop on that one, that shit's crazy.

• 1:13:28Speaker 04

  Yeah, agreed on that one. So yeah, we'll keep monitoring the situation, hope things, uh, cool off. So we don't have a bunch more strikes and drones and diesel prices and refineries getting blown up and things like that. It's going, it's rumored that Zelensky saying energy is back on the table now. So we'll see if he holds up to his deal of the bargain. Uh, Ryan, we got some super chats.

• 1:13:50Speaker 03

  Yes, we do. We got two to look at. Uh, Tim Seitz says, is the Iran war just a front, uh, front run on a future war with China? Where China could have Iran close the strait on us? Also, we now have the excuse for crazy high military spending on the next gen munitions and equipment meant for China.

• 1:14:07Speaker 02

  Yeah, it, so the China Iran angle is something that is constantly looming in the background of this conversation. Nothing is like broken to make it a big enough story for me to really go in on it. Uh, but I have been looking at this. And so you have to imagine, given the positive relationship between China and Iran, that China is at, at a minimum quietly hoping that Iran pulls this out and gets the US out, because if the US is gone, then China can be the background influence. They're very good at influencing through debt, uh, and manufacturing and things like that. Where it's like, we've got a bunch of stuff that you need. We're also, uh, for Iran, we are your economy. And so when they're your economy and if they can get you, um, in a situation where you're indebted to them

• 1:14:51Speaker 02

  because they're helping you rebuild or whatever. Now it's like, it becomes the sort of US, UK special relationship. And China would be able to have a very strong foothold in the region. So yeah, this would, where we are headed right now, if Trump is not able to pull a rabbit out of his hat. Where you're headed right now is eventually the US gets tired of this, they end up leaving. China cozies up to Iran, helps them rebuild and now becomes the most influential, um, country that isn't physically in the region. So there's a lot of that. I also have seen rumors that there are like trains loaded up with oil to send to China, uh, over land. So it's, uh, it's all very interesting.

• 1:15:34Speaker 02

  And ultimately, my whole analysis is if you zoom out enough, all I should be on China. That the, and from a US perspective, everything else is a blip. Uh, Russia, Ukraine's a blip. Um, Iran ultimately is a blip, but what is going to dictate the next 10, 20 years is China.

• 1:15:55Speaker 03

  Next up comes from Nicholas Sharon, who says the IPO for SpaceX is not for the AI portion, but because of the hardware. Their customers are NASA and Google for putting stuff in space, not to mention Starlink and other projects, very long Elon. Have you checked, uh, John Papola?

• 1:16:13Speaker 02

  Well, I don't know, I don't know who John Papola is, but, um, I think that SpaceX AI never would have gotten those valuations if it wasn't tangled up in AI. There's no way. Um, but he had a very compelling narrative around a lot of things, up to and including, we're going to be putting this stuff in space and just the Elon multiplier. So we've never seen a human do what Elon is doing. Uh, it's possible that never in human history has a human done what Elon is doing. And so everybody looks at that and I want a piece of it. So that one isn't super surprising, but I think that, uh, to say that people are really just betting on the hardware? Hmm, probably not. Now, if he gets chip production up and running, then that might be a different story.

• 1:16:57Speaker 02

  But right now, he's still beholden to having to buy all the chips. Um, so it's still part of the Nvidia AI boom story thing. And if he didn't have an AI company, I mean, there's a reason he changed it to SpaceX AI. Um, but anybody paying attention could see that the real revenue was coming from Starlink. So I mean, definitely to your case, the, a part of the hardware play.

• 1:17:22Speaker 03

  And I sent you, uh, the YouTube channel for the guy, he shouted out.

• 1:17:25Speaker 02

  Nice, okay, thank you.

• 1:17:27Speaker 03

  And that's it for the chats.

• 1:17:28Speaker 04

  So it seems you were right, Tom, you called it. Um, the Trump admin is seeking to strip, uh, Ilhan Omar of her US citizenship. And this, I don't want to say was a witch hunt, but they're looking for something. It's one of those things, we got the warrant, now we need to find the crime.

• 1:17:43Speaker 02

  Yeah, show me the person, I'll tell you what they're guilty of, yeah.

• 1:17:47Speaker 04

  But it seems like, yeah, the point is to get her citizenship removed ahead of the midterms. October surprise.

• 1:17:54Speaker 02

  The Ilhan Omar story just keeps getting worse. As the Wall Street Journal has dropped a new report, they're making some bold claims about what's really going on. So according to the Journal, federal agents took Omar's phone, computer, passport, which I'm guessing means they think that she's a flight risk during the search and that more than a dozen subpoenas have now gone out to people around her. According to the reporting, prosecutors want to drag her relatives in front of a grand jury. They obviously think they have her like on the immigration side. Now, many people have been speculating that this is about stripping her of her citizenship and deporting her, which is wild.

• 1:18:35Speaker 02

  And we're now hearing, uh, they're citing people off the record, US officials though, and people that are familiar with the probe. And the Wall Street Journal has confirmed that that really is the agenda. That this really is the Trump administration trying to de-naturalize Ilhan Omar and get her out of the country.

• 1:18:55Speaker 02

  That is wild. Now, the theory, according to the Journal, goes like this. Omar's father, Nur Omar Mohammed, brought the family to the US from a Kenyan refugee camp in 1995. Now, there's a whole bunch of rumors that I have not validated, that he was actually on the wrong side of history there, and that he was a part of a very oppressive murderous regime. More research will need to be done there, but I'll be interested to see if that's part of what comes out in the probe. But he was naturalized back in 2000, and Ilhan became a citizen automatically because she was listed as being 17 years old. Now, if she was 18, then she would have needed to go through her own application.

• 1:19:39Speaker 02

  And so investigators are examining whether Omar or her father misrepresented her age on the paperwork. And her father's been dead now for like six years, so not much to be done there. But what they can do to keep this alive, because it's actually way well outside of the statute of limitations. What they can do to keep this alive is to say, listen, she's got the wrong birthdate on a whole bunch of documentation, including her passport. And every time she uses that, she's restarting the clock. So that's probably how they plan to get around that. Now, for the plan to denaturalize and deport her to work, the DOJ would have to sue in federal court and prove basically that this was

• 1:20:22Speaker 02

  a material misrepresentation by clear and convincing evidence. Leon Fresco, who's a former senior DOJ immigration official, told the Journal that that path is going to be very difficult. The Journal is framing all of this as, and I think this is accurate, the highest-profile piece of an administration-wide denaturalization push. And the deputy attorney general is calling it the largest in modern history. So, I mean, I don't think anybody's going to be surprised to hear that Trump is looking to deport anybody that's here illegally. I think everybody's going to buy into that. Now, the question becomes,

• 1:21:04Speaker 02

  is he trying to deport Ilhan Omar because, well, you're an illegal immigrant who's committed all these crazy dangerous crimes, and so we've got to get you out? Or is he using that as cover to weaponize the DOJ and the legal system against a political opponent? I hope you guys will forgive me for being cynical, but this seems very clearly that this is weaponization of the Justice Department, used against a political enemy in the same way that they did this to Trump. Now, I've said many times, Trump was never going to be the bigger man. That is not the kind of person that a populist uprising pulls forth. And so in this populist moment, we pulled for somebody that's going to be just as petty.

• 1:21:48Speaker 02

  So he's like, well, they did it to me, so fuck them. I'm going to do it to them. My take is, unless there is a smoking bazooka, forget a gun. They should leave all of this alone. If she has an outright committed fraud, especially this close to an election, just stop. Stop. Beat her on the merits or fuck off. This is so retarded. This is how this kind of political violence just ends up escalating back and forth, back and forth, back and forth, until we don't have a real government, that this all just becomes an absolute avalanche of bullshit. It is complete buffoonery on all sides, and we end up truly tearing apart our democracy from the inside.

• 1:22:32Speaker 02

  And that seems like the path that we have now been on for quite some time. And this, if you think this is just a Trump phenomenon, boy, are you going to be surprised if the DSA keeps getting in power. The Democrats, even the normal Democrats, have been calling for people to get imprisoned, like nonstop violence. This shit is crazy, man. We've got to stop this. Yes, if you've got somebody that really is actively committing a crime right now, and it's a real and heinous crime, you should pursue it to the ends of the earth regardless of who it is. But when we start trying to find legal ways to stretch that, you know, okay, yes, we're past the statute of limitations, but we got to make this something bigger. Or, for instance, you guys ready for a hard one?

• 1:23:14Speaker 02

  Kimball Musk is on camera saying, Elon and I, at one point, were illegal immigrants. Now Elon tries to shush him in the clip and say, hey, hey, hey, I think it was a gray area. I wouldn't call this illegal. And Kimball goes, yes, we were. So, boys, yeah, fuck it, play it. Here we go. In fact, when they, when they did fund us, they, they realized that we were illegal immigrants.

• 1:23:42Speaker 05

  Well, I mean, I'd say it was a gray area.

• 1:23:45Speaker 02

  Yeah, yes, we were. Kids, doth thou live in a glass house? What the fuck are you guys doing, man? Yeah, this stuff is dumb. Have a, have a much bigger threshold than back when you were 18 or 19. Your dad lied to try to get you a better life in America. I don't love it, and I don't want to see that keep happening. But goddamn, like, this is not the thing that... Maybe there's more. It's always possible. But maybe there's not, and it's really just that. And this is going to be some dumb bullshit. And by the way, we have a rule that says, hey, even if you have something on somebody, don't go after them 60 days before an election, which we're doing right here. Like, this is just absolutely crazy-making.

• 1:24:30Speaker 02

  And I cannot stress enough, if you're just indexing, this is just a Trump problem. You're not paying attention. They did this to Trump. So, yeah, this is dumb. It was a dumb idea when they did it to Trump. It's a dumb idea when they're doing it to Ilhan Omar. And keep in mind, I hate Ilhan Omar's policies. I really hate them. And so, boy, do I hope she loses her election. But not like this.

• 1:24:55Speaker 04

  It's hilarious because somebody was like, bro, gonna sit here and compare Elon Omar to Elon. F-ing wildly naive. And it's like, there's people in the chat that didn't even know we have, like, immigrants in Congress. They like, once I seen Ilhan Omar, I was like, man, we're letting anybody get into Congress. We've been letting anybody get into Congress. Your favorite Republican is a Cuban immigrant. Like, it's just, I don't know.

• 1:25:21Speaker 02

  Here's the thing. Now, if they want to open that can of worms, I'm all for it. But you're opening a different can of worms. Here's the approach that we should be taking to this. Okay, as we evaluate an immigrant, on what metric do we evaluate them? Do we say, are you a net contributor or a net burden? And if we want to say, listen, Elon Musk has given so much to this country. There's no way he could have come in as illegal as he wanted. The amount that he's given to this country means all is forgiven. I'm actually here for that. I love it the most. But that's why we don't go after Ilhan Omar, unless what we're saying is, okay,

• 1:26:04Speaker 02

  we're going to put some sort of documentable thing down that we can say, here is how we verify whether this person who did something minor, they have a minor infraction, this is how we're going to judge them. So they aren't a criminal. They are somebody, or a violent criminal, let's say, or a fraudster. They're just somebody, they came in over the border, their parents brought them here illegally, whatever. And now we're deciding, are we going to strip them of their naturalization or not? Cool, have a metric by which you judge that. Otherwise, this will be weaponized against them. If you chase Ilhan Omar out of the country, boy, oh, boy, can you expect Elon Musk to be investigated ASAP, Rockay.

• 1:26:49Speaker 02

  What, what game are you guys playing? It's so fucking dumb. Now, at the same time, I'm a big believer. We should want immigrants in America. But we should want the best and the brightest, and they should not get access to public services. No way. Not until you become a citizen, quite frankly. Just make it that simple. Become a citizen, or no handouts for you.

• 1:27:13Speaker 04

  Yeah, I just think we need to actually articulate what we mean by immigrant. And I'm always sensitive to this topic because we've heard illegal immigrant, and now everybody that's not born in America is an illegal immigrant. And there's 18 different pathways to get to America. There's a good way, there's a bad way, there's a malicious way, there's a way that's been happening for 200 years. So I just think, a lot of times, this is why a lot of people on the right get these racist allegations, is because you don't care about illegal immigrants. You care that this brown person is now the bad guy, and that is the manifestation of the, the thing that is everything that's wrong with America. So people are talking about Ilhan Omar is a leech. She's on welfare, she's doing this, she's doing that.

• 1:27:56Speaker 04

  And it's like, she's definitely not doing any of that because her net worth was 30 million last year. So she's not the one on the welfare system. But we can point to all the other partisan groups, or these other immigrants who are in office, or these other people that might vote how you like them to vote. And there's no problem, it's fine. I like when you do it. So again, it's just, socialism is bad when you do it. Socialism is good when I do it. Welfare fraud is bad when they do it. It's not talked about when this group does it. And it, there's a whole bunch of that, you know? Bad for you, good for me.

• 1:28:27Speaker 02

  Yes, interesting. So the way that I read it is this. Racism's real because of something buried deep inside the human psyche, which is what I call school of fish. We have to differentiate, are you in-group or out-group? Because you could be a threat. And so we all wear it on our face, literally our skin color. However, that is the thinnest, most boring, most numbskull way, and I don't think many people parse the world in that way. I think the vast majority of humanity goes, do you share my values? And so they might initially go, you don't look like me, fuck you. And then the second they're like, oh, you're into the things I'm into? You vote the way that I vote?

• 1:29:12Speaker 02

  Cool, we're homies. And so I really, dude, I get more and more annoyed when people keep trying to make this a race issue. If you're wired like me, you couldn't fucking care less what color somebody is. I just want to know, bro, are you making it worse because you're leeching off the system? Or are you, did you come here knowing, nobody's going to give me a handout? And I've got to fight for everything I'm going to get. And I'm going to try to build something incredible to add value to the world. I'm either going to work somewhere, create jobs, whatever, but I'm going to contribute to this society.

• 1:29:52Speaker 02

  And I'm going to like lean into American values like hard. I'm going to be with my thick Indian accent. I'm going to be the most American motherfucker ever. Yeah, that's my kind of guy. I don't give a fuck what color their skin is, and I don't think anybody does. I think people use it as a quick shorthand to, okay, you're not like me. Oh, wait, you actually are like me because we agree on the same shit? Rad. And this is why you will see people that, oh God, this is going to be terrible. I didn't plan to bring this one up. I really, I didn't, I don't even think I pulled this clip, but I watched it like eight times. There was a black guy getting fired by three black women and he fucking shot them dead at point blank range.

• 1:30:36Speaker 02

  He shot them, they were all on the floor, probably already dead. He reloaded the gun and shot them again, each of them like bang, bang. It was the craziest shit I've ever seen. Was he doing it because he was racist? Was he doing it because he was misogynistic? Was he doing it because he didn't want to get fucking fired? And he was like, fuck these people. So this is where I'm like, dude, if people stop at like the first like roadblock of like, oh, I bet he did it because he's misogynistic, or I bet he did it because he's racist. It's like, first of all, he did it because he's broken inside. Let's start with that. And he has hit something where it's like, these are my enemies.

• 1:31:18Speaker 02

  People prove themselves your enemies through their behavior, not just by the way they look. And if we don't start getting to, why does somebody clock somebody else as an enemy? If we don't understand why, if America were to break into a civil war, you'd have a lot of white people killing a lot of white people and it would not break along race lines. It would break along left and fucking right. And the people on the right, regardless of skin color, will team up. And the people on the left, regardless of skin color, will team up and they will kill each other. And they will kill each other over values because what we kill each other over is values. And skin color is merely a proxy that got hardwired into us of saying, you probably don't have my values. But the second you check beyond that to find that the person actually does share your values, then all of that shit goes out the window.

• 1:32:03Speaker 02

  And so it drives me fucking bananas that people keep trying to clock this as, this is just race. It doesn't matter that the person is brown. It matters, do you share my values? That's where people, the thing people care for, kill for is protect my family, protect what I own, and then they'll fight and die for values. That's it.

• 1:32:27Speaker 04

  We'll keep monitoring the situation and we will see what comes out of it.

• 1:32:32Speaker 02

  I can tell you what's going to come out of it because that's a tale as old as time. People are going to keep screaming racism and people are going to keep killing each other over values. And it'll be white on white crime and black on black crime, as it almost always is. Uh, because people kill the people that are around them, which tend to be the people that look like them. Yada, yada. It's so fucking boring. And then we're going to see people that look nothing alike being like, see, we can look past everything because we share values. And if either one of you turn on each other from a values perspective, you'll instantly turn on them. It's fucking wild. It's stupid, it's our baser behavior, but it is what people do.

• 1:33:04Speaker 04

  Yeah. Uh, all right. We also have a quick update. So Trump announced that he will not livestream the execution of Fort Hood attacker, Nadal Hassan.

• 1:33:16Speaker 02

  Praise Jesus.

• 1:33:17Speaker 04

  You were on the, we don't want this livestream side.

• 1:33:19Speaker 02

  I desperately do not want this televised, but if they televise it, I'm watching.

• 1:33:24Speaker 06

  Sounds good, doesn't work.

• 1:33:26Speaker 02

  Yeah, true.

• 1:33:27Speaker 04

  Uh, this was Trump's tweet. Nadal Malik Hassan, a former US Army major turned traitor, is a very bad and evil man who killed 13 people, including a pregnant soldier who died along with her unborn son and injured very seriously 32 more innocent people. Barack Hussein Obama, of course, Federal Bureau of Investigation intercepted electronic communication between Hassan and radical Yemeni American clerk Anwar Al Awaki. When reviewed by his R F B I terrorism task force, investigators concluded that Hassan's emails were not a threat. The assessment of the Obama administration's actions related considered to be a key intelligence failure. With all that being said, I think streaming the execution for all to see might have been a strong deterrent for the world to witness how America deals with terrorists and scum like Hassan. But many very good and well-meaning people would rather not watch him die

• 1:34:11Speaker 04

  through streaming or through any other visual device. He will die as scheduled by firing squad, but this event will not be streamed. That said, execution may be viewed in person by the immediate families of the victim if they choose. They deserve the witness justice. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President Donald J. Trump.

• 1:34:25Speaker 02

  Yeah, thank God. So if you don't know, this guy's in a wheelchair. So I want you to imagine that they've got a guy, they wheel his ass up in front of a firing squad and they fucking shoot that guy in the face. That is the wildest shit ever.

• 1:34:39Speaker 07

  Trump didn't even know he was in a wheelchair at first. I don't know if y'all saw that part of the story, but Trump was not aware.

• 1:34:45Speaker 02

  I mean, that's better, that's better. Because if he was thinking, because they asked him point blank, do you think this is a good idea? And he's like, I absolutely think it's a good idea. Now, he has since changed his mind, praise Jesus, and nobody should be uh, ever annoyed at somebody that comes to their senses. We are all going to be wrong and the only thing worse than being wrong is doubling down and being wrong because you're afraid of just saying, yeah, I was wrong about that thing. So I will give Trump on this one. He corrected course. I am very glad he corrected course because good Lord, that was a terrible fucking plan. It is bread and circus. It is stirring up some very weird, deep emotion in people. And uh, that is not the thing that we want to lean into right now. That, so yes, he came to his senses.

• 1:35:30Speaker 02

  Now, would he have come to his senses if he thought the guy was able to stand? Maybe not. Uh, so let's all be a little thankful that he actually is in a wheelchair and everybody realized that would be really stupid to broadcast that, really stupid. Jesus Christ.

• 1:35:47Speaker 04

  Yeah, this was one of those things, it became a story and I'm like, oh yeah, nobody really cares about that. And then it became like a story.

• 1:35:52Speaker 02

  Oh no, I really cared about it. The second I read that, I, I felt some type of way. I was like, oh my God. This is so indicative of populism. Like populism in one image would be a guy in a wheelchair getting shot like by a firing squad at the place that he did it, which is real, by the way. They planned to shoot him where he shot the people. And so it's just like, uh, yeah.

• 1:36:15Speaker 04

  We were talking about Elon earlier today. Um, we have now have the receipts. Elon Musk has donated 158 million to S L F. S L F donated 158 million, that's nine.

• 1:36:26Speaker 02

  I wonder where they got that money?

• 1:36:27Speaker 04

  To Texas PAC. S L F is a Texas PAC's only donor. Elon Musk is single-handedly funding Texas PAC, which is boosting Kevin Paxton. John Breschon asked the great question, how does democracy function when one person can donate 150 million for one senate race in a state where one of his companies has major facilities?

• 1:36:46Speaker 02

  Yeah. Yep.

• 1:36:49Speaker 04

  Too much money in politics.

• 1:36:50Speaker 02

  Period. It's like, this is, uh, this is where you are. Uh, my thing is just make sure that you have all that same energy when somebody is donating to the people that you like. So, um, this is bad. This should stop immediately and it needs to stop on both sides. And the bad news is it's not going to. So you're going to keep seeing money in politics. We would have to have massive reforms to get this money out of politics. It is certainly an endeavor worth doing, but I don't know what's actually going to make it happen. So the reality is, and we'd have to rerun the numbers, but the last time you look at this, more billionaires donate to blue causes than red billionaires, uh, give to red causes.

• 1:37:33Speaker 02

  So, um, yeah, it just, you should hate everywhere that it happens.

• 1:37:38Speaker 07

  It says they support Republicans more. I just looked up the stats.

• 1:37:41Speaker 04

  I'm not saying historically, that might be accurate, but recently the Republicans are out fundraising Democrats by a country mile. I'm talking about, we were looking at the, uh, convention, the R N C has like.

• 1:37:54Speaker 02

  Zoom, zoom out to like the last 20 years. Is that going to be true? No way. Definitely not. So, uh, has something shifted recently? I wouldn't be surprised because get ready for it. When your Democrat candidates are so hell-bent to break the engine of prosperity, anybody that, uh, has half of a fucking brain goes, I don't want to see the engine of prosperity broken because that would be bad for everybody.

• 1:38:21Speaker 03

  I found the answer for you. Historically, more total financial support and larger aggregate dollars amounts from American billionaires have gone to Republicans than Democrats, particularly since the 2010 Citizens United Supreme Court ruling allowing unlimited campaign spending.

• 1:38:35Speaker 02

  I've looked at this stat before. And so I concede in this moment that I don't have anything to, um, counter with, but I will do more research. If I am incorrect, I will simply say I was incorrect and I'll update my mental model. Uh, I do not concede that point at this time. I've looked at this too many times. Uh, so anyway, more on that later.

• 1:38:59Speaker 04

  Trump has announced he has personally signed and granted all permits for the 800 mile Alaska gas pipeline Democrats desperately tried to block per Trump construction has been approved to begin tonight the largest energy infrastructure project in the history of Alaska one of the largest in history of the United States we got it done now of course this is gonna take gears to online and stuff like that but this is a win in the energy department I know that's like a big

• 1:39:23Speaker 02

  This to me is great man getting the US energy infrastructure online is an absolute must I understand that people want to move away from fossil fuels as fast as we can that is only going to come from innovation how do you innovate you bring on more energy look at China China is bringing on way more energy than the US by orders of magnitude so the fact that we have been stagnant for as long as we have is absolutely criminal everybody in America that voted for anti-energy policies should be absolutely ashamed of themselves the only thing that they should be focused on is innovation so China if you look it is so comical looking at the what Europe has

• 1:40:06Speaker 02

  done to reduce their emissions and then look at what China's done that has so radically increased their emissions and yet what have they done with that they've transitioned to cleaner energy and so now they're going to be able to dwarf everybody in energy output and clean energy so how do you actually make the transition to clean energy you unfortunately have to use the energy source you have access to right now which is the not clean energy what you don't do is encourage the world to have less kids what you don't do is let people cook in the summer and freeze to death in the winter it is so fucking idiotic this is why I'm just saying over and over and over innovation is always the way innovation is always the way it is the

• 1:40:48Speaker 02

  path forward it is the thing that makes life better innovation is a promise of a better tomorrow it's grandma living longer it's fewer women dying in childbirth it's women having more options it's everything quite literally getting better we have such a delusional sense of what history was really like how dangerous and violent it was how there were microbes that would just kill you you had no idea what happened you had fucking witch doctors because nobody knew what the fuck was going on and so they thought all kinds of dumb shit was going to heal you that of course was not and so it is through a relentless pursuit of innovation that we have made life as much better as we have and now all of the sudden we fell for a bunch of propaganda not because climate change isn't real but because if you want

• 1:41:33Speaker 02

  to get through it and get to the other side and get in a position where you can either weather the storms get control of the storms start moving in a better direction it's all going to come from innovation nature is undefeated nature kills everybody nature throws meteors at the earth that wipe every living thing essentially off the face of the planet and so us putting ourselves in a position through innovation where we can stop more and more of these problems is the way you have to actually be against the human race to not want to see us innovate and get to a better place it is absolute lunacy and we have somehow allowed ourselves to get sucked into it we have lost the desire to be great to strive

• 1:42:16Speaker 02

  for greatness and that is one of the great human sins we need like an 11th commandment thou shall not give up on improving yourself like this is fucking crazy

• 1:42:26Speaker 04

  On the back of this China for the first time ever has sold more battery vehicles than electric combustion than internal combustion engines so the China's dependency on oil like it's it's dropping fast

• 1:42:41Speaker 02

  So I'm saying these guys

• 1:42:42Speaker 04

  One of the reasons why the oil market hasn't crashed because of the straight hermose and stuff China was just like okay we're good and just went somewhere else

• 1:42:48Speaker 02

  Yes

• 1:42:48Speaker 04

  Crazy

• 1:42:49Speaker 02

  So this is what I'm talking about like you have your eye on the prize you understand what you're going to do with this you are going to leverage fossil fuels to create whatever is the most efficient form of energy and spoiler alert that will always be solar period so capturing more energy from the sun is the game it is what people should be paying attention to and if you have to burn fossil fuels in the interim to do it you do it it's that simple

• 1:43:18Speaker 04

  And we also have to give some thoughts and prayers to the three children and adult who were killed at Civil Rail Elementary School in Bend Oregon according to local law enforcement sources officers made it to the school within three minutes of the first call but by then the shooter believed to be a teenager was already dead sources say a bystander took him down though police have only said it may have been someone at the scene at least two more victims were rushed to the hospital in unknown condition and police are still clearing the school room by room with FBI and ATF on scene parents are being sent to Journey Church to reunite with their kids no parents should ever have to sit in the church parking lot waiting to find out if their child has survived the school day

• 1:43:53Speaker 02

  Yeah so this happened yesterday I doubt that they're still going room to room but yeah this is absolutely heartbreaking there was also a reported multiple stabbing in Oregon so it was a bad day to be in Oregon yesterday I don't know what the hell was popping off but yeah this is brutal and what's weird is that these things happen all the time we have more than one mass murder scene a day in this country which is pretty wild so yeah no bueno no bueno and we need to start figuring out what do these attackers have in common you hear all kinds of stuff up to and including mental health issues SSRIs etc etc but boy do we need to find a solution and unfortunately I don't think that's gonna be gun control

• 1:44:35Speaker 02

  so we gotta get ourselves in a position where we do look into why we have so many

• 1:44:43Speaker 03

  Just a personal anecdote I remember in sixth grade the first time I realized that America's the only country that really has this problem because we had a kid from Spain join our class and I was assigned to like introduce him to everyone you know be his buddy for the first day and it happened to be that first week we had a school shooting drill not like an actual

• 1:45:05Speaker 02

  Drill I was like damn

• 1:45:06Speaker 03

  But we do drills like regularly in in school and he was like what are we doing I was like oh this is you know this is a school shooting drill and he's like oh we don't have those in Spain and I was like what and I looked into it and that was just when I realized that it's just such an American issue

• 1:45:21Speaker 02

  Yeah yeah I mean listen you don't stop people from killing each other you just have a lot of knife attacks in other places but they've done they've looked at this stuff there is some equilibrium that comes from and I'd need to pull up the stats so just assume everything I'm saying right now is fake news because this is just off memory but you get an equilibrium when people have like a license to carry that the rate of homicide by gun goes down I forget what the exact stat is so again assume that's fake news but yeah look America is founded on the principle that you can fight back against a tyrannical government so good luck getting rid of the guns but it certainly seeing people killed with guns is a absolute horror show

• 1:46:09Speaker 04

  We have to send a big thank you to Shane Gillis

• 1:46:11Speaker 02

  Dude this Shane Gillis story just won't stop I can't believe

• 1:46:14Speaker 04

  For all consuming All the gym bros out there you've been seeing it you're welcome you are welcome they've been out I'm talking like it's been

• 1:46:22Speaker 02

  Drew's spending six hours a day in the gym

• 1:46:24Speaker 04

  I feel like my health is important I feel like my health is very important and I need to pay attention on it right now in this moment but nah there's actually been some notable crashouts and to me I was like oh yeah he's being a jerk let's all be a dick to him we'll get over it in a week but some of these TikToks are getting a little bit unhinged exhibit A

• 1:46:42Speaker 02

  Okay so wait wait wait before you play this so she is gonna make a claim in this video that she does not dress the way that she dresses or go to the gym for attention now I want you to think about the performance you're about to see and tell me if you agree that this woman does not do things for attention with that

• 1:47:02Speaker 08

  I'm not looking for attention at the gym I'm trying to fucking work out oh my god as if I women don't already struggle to fucking feel comfortable at the gym you gotta make a stupid fucking joke and now I'm like well what do I fucking wear I'm and I've seen I've been working out in one section and I saw these men I saw a cute girl with her low and I was like yeah I'm always like yes girlie and I could see these guys like I could read their fucking lips what they were talking about her it's like see see what she's wearing

• 1:47:40Speaker 08

  like don't fucking look at her don't fucking look I'm so mad I'm so and then the fucking stupid Shane Gillis joke now trying to figure out what to wear to the gym I was like oh I really like these pants they're really comfortable but they do have the scrunchiness but I like the scrunchiness because then like nothing and then I've even gone to the gym in like baggy cotton sweatpants I'm not looking for attention at the gym I'm trying to fucking work out

• 1:48:15Speaker 02

  Uh huh

• 1:48:15Speaker 04

  Yep there you go

• 1:48:16Speaker 02

  She does not seek attention I can tell that's the good news

• 1:48:20Speaker 04

  She's just telling she's just telling the world she just has to get her story

• 1:48:23Speaker 02

  Yeah this is so crazy to me I'm just like how do these people make it through life without walking into things yeah that Jesus Christ the crashouts will continue I don't get it you know my whole shtick on this this to me is pure just an absolute lack of understanding of either she's being completely dishonest or it's a lack of understanding of human sexuality so yeah I just cannot fathom that this this is where we're at

• 1:48:53Speaker 04

  I just thought this was hilarious

• 1:48:55Speaker 02

  This is hysterical but it only works if you're looking at a screen you gotta check this out

• 1:49:01Speaker 06

  I do this with men very often

• 1:49:03Speaker 04

  Captain and straight men who are obviously not gay

• 1:49:05Speaker 06

  Because I didn't know he was a great athlete and I looked and I watched up and down I looked at his ass and I looked at the hole and then I looked at his hands look at his hands he's got these like claws and I got it you are a great athlete I didn't know that because he doesn't talk about that congratulations now they finally know that was very good

• 1:49:29Speaker 02

  That is hysterical I watched that an unhealthy number of times it's too funny too funny

• 1:49:35Speaker 04

  That was nice and then this is why we're never getting a UBI Star Trek all that future I don't believe it I'm calling BS on it right now the caption is POV it's 2050 and you forgot to buy your mirror subscription

• 1:49:59Speaker 02

  All right, that one landed. Everybody here is laughing. That's funny.

• 1:50:02Speaker 04

  It's really sad.

• 1:50:03Speaker 02

  You guys got some anxiety about this one.

• 1:50:05Speaker 04

  It's really, it's really a huge, it's really a...

• 1:50:06Speaker 02

  That's hilarious. That is very funny.

• 1:50:09Speaker 04

  Okay, I think we got one more super, right?

• 1:50:10Speaker 03

  Yes, we do. We had one more come in. Swirling Dragon Miss says, historically speaking, Greek gymnasiums were entirely nude, as were the Olympics. Gyms were always supposed to be nude. Guide us back to truth and reason, Rubio.

• 1:50:24Speaker 02

  Well...

• 1:50:24Speaker 04

  The Rubio diet. Rubio will save us.

• 1:50:28Speaker 02

  Rubio, no nude dish.

• 1:50:29Speaker 04

  Rubio needs to go butt naked in front of the Pantheon to do another speech.

• 1:50:32Speaker 03

  King Dong in front of the Pantheon.

• 1:50:34Speaker 02

  Jesus, don't do that.

• 1:50:37Speaker 02

  Yeah, it always struck me as very strange that those were done nude. I'm not, I'm not sure what that was about.

• 1:50:43Speaker 04

  And there was also wrestling little boys nude. I don't think we need to emulate that too.

• 1:50:47Speaker 02

  We definitely don't need to emulate that. But just think about sprinting with your bait and tackle out. That shit would hurt. Like, fuck that.

• 1:50:55Speaker 04

  A lot of flopping.

• 1:50:55Speaker 02

  I don't, yeah, I don't need that slapping against everything, so...

• 1:50:58Speaker 04

  Let's track that. Like, back then, because I remember all the old Greek Olympics, it's always like shot put and wrestling. Like, I don't see anything.

• 1:51:05Speaker 02

  They definitely did runs, for sure. For sure, for sure. And now, imagine wrestling nude. Wrestling nude is like a hard pass. That nope.

• 1:51:15Speaker 04

  You know, maybe like tickle it with him just to...

• 1:51:17Speaker 02

  Nope!

• 1:51:18Speaker 04

  See? And then as soon as he, as soon as he cringes, that's how you pin him.

• 1:51:21Speaker 02

  Yeah, that, yeah.

• 1:51:23Speaker 03

  Just give a little tug.

• 1:51:24Speaker 02

  That's wild.

• 1:51:25Speaker 04

  Give a tug is crazy.

• 1:51:26Speaker 03

  Grab his dick and twist it!

• 1:51:27Speaker 04

  Okay, Ryan, first you said you go to gay clubs, and now you're talking about giving tug, tugs. You got about one more, and then you're not beating allegations.

• 1:51:33Speaker 03

  It's a reference to a vine, it's a vine!

• 1:51:35Speaker 02

  That's amazing.

• 1:51:36Speaker 04

  Yeah, one more.

• 1:51:37Speaker 03

  I was saying though, cups suck. I will say, that's like the, to go on the other end of it, people say nude gyms. I remember playing baseball, I fucking hated wearing a cup. That was uncomfy. And then they'd tap you with the bat to check this.

• 1:51:50Speaker 04

  It was like a running joke when I played football that like people wouldn't wear cups. Just, again, it's uncomfortable, so then there was just a bunch of nut checks.

• 1:51:57Speaker 02

  Oh god. Also, I cannot imagine being tackled without one. God damn, you were just begging every time.

• 1:52:03Speaker 04

  And especially when those like ploppies come up and...

• 1:52:05Speaker 02

  Oh god!

• 1:52:06Speaker 04

  Yeah, they're...

• 1:52:07Speaker 02

  No.

• 1:52:08Speaker 04

  Yeah, it gets crazy. It gets crazy in those huddles.

• 1:52:10Speaker 02

  No.

• 1:52:11Speaker 04

  I heard rugby is also equally crazy.

• 1:52:12Speaker 03

  I thought rugby was crazy.

• 1:52:13Speaker 02

  Dude, rugby is one way to head trauma. Like, you wanna snap your collarbone, play rugby. I don't understand. That, that's the wildest sport ever.

• 1:52:21Speaker 04

  Nuts, nuts, nuts. Um, okay.

• 1:52:22Speaker 02

  That was a wild way to end that segment.

• 1:52:26Speaker 04

  We, you know, we were getting there.

• 1:52:27Speaker 02

  All right, guys. Happy Friday, everybody. I hope you have an absolutely wonderful weekend. I'm so grateful every time that you guys spend time with us. It means the world. Thank you for all the super chats. Huge, and I hope you guys have a wonderful weekend. We will see you on Monday. Until then, my friends, be legendary. Ta- oh god! That was gangster. Well done. Whoever just did that. Okay, as a reminder, Tailor Brands sponsored today's episode. We love those guys so much, legitimately, legitimately. If you are starting a business, these guys have got your back. Go to Tailor Brands right now. They are absolutely incredible. They're gonna help you get your LLC set up. They take care of all that early like paperwork bullshit, all the stuff that you have to get going, which can be a major pain.

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