Military Coups, UN Threats, and Canada’s Dystopian Death Stats| Tom Bilyeu

Welcome back to Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu! In today’s episode, Tom and Drew dive into some of the most heated and pressing issues dividing America and the world right now. They unpack a shocking new poll revealing just how deep political divisions have become, with alarmingly high numbers of Democrats openly supporting extreme measures against Trump. Tom dissects the real-world consequences of military coups, using chilling examples from Myanmar, Egypt, and Chile to illustrate what happens when civil discourse collapses. The conversation then shifts to a fiery recap of the recent UN General Assembly, where Trump threatened Iran in a tense speech that left global leaders reeling. Tom breaks down the ongoing power dynamics in the Middle East, the dangers of nuclear proliferation, and the potential outcomes if Iran succeeds in developing nuclear weapons. The episode also explores the explosive growth and controversy surrounding AI giants like OpenAI and Anthropic, with Tom and Drew analyzing the legal, ethical, and regulatory challenges facing the industry. Plus, we look at fascinating shifts in the gaming industry, heated debates around streamer scandals, and the disturbing rise of euthanasia in Canada, raising critical questions about culture, healthcare, and personal freedom. Strap in—this episode is a whirlwind tour through the world’s most polarizing debates, all filtered through Tom’s signature lens of historical context, rational analysis, and bold speculation about what’s next. What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here: Want my help starting a business? Join me here inside Zero To Founder https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show Sign up for my AI Masterclass: AI Masterclass https://tombilyeu.com/ai-masterclass?utm_campaign=Live%20Masterclass&utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=evergreen Follow Me: Instagram:https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok:https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter:https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu Thank you to our Sponsors: Tailor Brands: Check out Tailor Brands to get started with your business today: https://bit.ly/TailorBrandsSept Quince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpod ElevenLabs: Book your demo at https://elevenlabs.io/impactpod Cash App: Download Cash App Today: https://capl.onelink.me/vFut/v6nymgjl#CashAppPod *Cash App is a financial services platform, not a bank. Banking services provided by Cash App’s bank partner(s). Prepaid debit cards issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Cash App Visa® Debit Flex Cards issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC, and The Bancorp Bank, N. A., pursuant to a license from Visa U. S. A. Inc. See terms and conditions for the Sutton prepaid card, Sutton debit flex card, and Bancorp debit flex card. Cash App Green features, Savings, Direct deposit, Round ups, Overdraft coverage and Discounts provided by Cash App, a Block, Inc. brand. Visit cash.app/legal/podcast http://cash.app/legal/podcast for full disclosure. Ketone IQ: Visit https://ketone.com/IMPACT for 30% OFF your subscription order. ATT Business: Switch to AT&T Business at https:// https://incogni.com/impactbusiness.att.com http://business.att.com Incogni: Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code IMPACT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/impact Quo: ​​Try for free PLUS get 20% off your first 6 months at https://quo.com/impact Pipedrive: Get more leads and grow your business. Go to https://www.pipedrive.com/impact and get started with a 30-day free trial. Netsuite: For the first time ever you can try NetSuite Next for free. If your revenues are at least in the seven figures, go to https://NetSuite.ai/Theory https://netsuite.ai/Theory. Butcherbox: Go to https://ButcherBox.com/IMPACT https://butcherbox.com/IMPACT to get $20 off your first box, plus your choice of free ribeye, new york strip, or filet mignon in every box for a year — with free shipping always See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Speaker names marked ? are inferred from speaking time and the show’s known hosts — they are not voice-verified.

• 0:00Tom Bilyeu?

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• 0:45Tom Bilyeu?

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• 1:08Speaker 01

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• 1:36Tom Bilyeu?

  Good morning, everybody. Welcome to another episode of the Tom Will You Show Live. Ooh, we have got a full docket today because the division in America is far worse than people realize. I was shocked by a new poll that shows that 59% of Democrats would welcome a military coup against Trump. We're going to talk about what that would actually look like in real life. Plus, some of the other stuff that came out in that insane, completely unhinged poll. The U.N. General Assembly was much spicier than usual yesterday. Trump took the stage to tout accomplishments and threatened to annihilate all of Iran right to their faces.

• 2:16Tom Bilyeu?

  That went about as well as you would expect, but Iran may be more ready to negotiate than they're letting on publicly. And it's having an impact on oil prices. We're going to talk about that. OpenAI and Anthropic may be in big trouble as insiders warn that they have massive litigation risk. And Scott Besant just made it clear that the Trump admin is not going to save them. So we'll see. But at the same time, AI might actually be winning some hearts and minds. I was excited to see that Notch, the creator of the highest selling video game of all time, and in my opinion, the greatest video game of all time, said he was wrong about AI being bad for programming. And then he's having fun with vibe coding.

• 2:57Tom Bilyeu?

  We'll talk more about what that means for all of computer programmers moving forward. We've also got to talk about the fact that something is seriously wrong in Canada. Despite having a fraction of our population, more people are euthanized there than are killed by gun homicides here in the U.S. And it gets far more startling when you look at the per capita rates. And controversial streamer Clavicular is facing potential life in prison after being accused of SA. And the internet is on fire debating the merits of the case. In all of the sort of predictable ways that you would assume, Drew, that'll be interesting to look at.

• 3:36Tom Bilyeu?

  All right, we've got to talk about what is going on with everything in the world of America. So right now, we have division going on that is absolutely crazy. I think it is far more shocking than people realize. It's certainly much worse than I thought. We've got a new poll that shows that 59% of Democrats would actually welcome a military coup against Trump. Can't believe that that is accurate, but nonetheless, went into that. You've got a full 31% who would be happy to see him assassinated. Let's sit with that for a second. Now, if you guys are thinking that this is just a rage bait poll by Fox News, unfortunately not.

• 4:18Tom Bilyeu?

  This poll came from the Center for Strategic Politics, which is a self-described progressive group. It was commissioned by Liberal Currents, which is also a self-described left-leaning publication. They surveyed 683 Democratic voters in early September and asked them how they'd feel about all kinds of absolutely unhinged stuff. And as long as it got Trump out of office, they were all for it. Now, if hopefully you're looking at your screen, some of these numbers are absolutely staggering. So we had questions like, President Donald Trump has been impeached and convicted by both houses of Congress and has been removed from office. These are like thought experiments. And, okay, cool, that one I get. If you're opposed to Trump, you're perfectly happy to see that happen.

• 5:02Tom Bilyeu?

  I've got no beef with that one. But when you start getting into, how do you feel about a military coup? And you find that just under 60% of people are all for it. It means almost two thirds of Democrats are all for seeing a military coup on U.S. soil to get rid of the president. That one, to me, I understand that people do not like Donald Trump, but I don't think people understand what actually comes with a military coup. Our country is not going to survive this trend if it keeps going. If we keep finding the left and the right racing away from each other like this on absolutely terrifying issues, like whether it's just a naked assassination attempt, which had 31% people feeling good about it,

• 5:47Tom Bilyeu?

  or the military coup, understand this is exactly how countries tear themselves apart from the inside. Now, a military coup to a crazy person from where I'm sitting might sound good in a fantasy land where you hate your country's leadership and you don't want to wait for democracy to do its thing. But in real life, what you get with a military coup is, get ready for it, a military dictatorship. The thing that I find most maddening is right now, you have a bunch of people that are afraid that Trump is really a dictator and he's just doing all this crazy stuff. And so they will celebrate China, which actually has a dictator, like a real for real. I'm in power for as long as I want and I will kill anybody that stands up to me. I will put them in a Gulag. I will disappear them. I will re-educate my billionaire class, all of that.

• 6:32Tom Bilyeu?

  That they're fine with. The in-reality thing, as long as they think they agree with that person's politics, they're fine with that. But somebody who might one day become and do that, they're so against it that they are willing to see a military dictatorship in the U.S. Now, every junta, which is the name for when you get the military doing a takeover and then running the country. Every time you get a junta like that, they're going to say that they're saving the country. But almost none of them actually give the power back. So understand, they are hoping for this thing that actually occurs in the world. And so we can look at and see, does it yield the results that mythically they're thinking will happen?

• 7:14Tom Bilyeu?

  So if you look at some of the examples, in February of 2021, Myanmar's military seized power. They claimed that there was election fraud and they declared a one-year state of emergency. More than five years later, the general who led the coup is now the country's president. He installed himself after tightly restricting elections that sidelined the party that it originally won. The civil war that that coup triggered has killed more than 100,000 people. Okay, so the junta ends up arresting nearly 32,000 people for opposing its reign. So I'm not sure what people expect here in the U.S. Okay, but that's just Myanmar. If we look at Egypt, do we see anything better? Unfortunately, we do not.

• 7:59Tom Bilyeu?

  The army removed an elected president back in 2013. If you remember this, the Arab Spring was backed by massive street protests. So people were like, this is what the people want. But six weeks later, security forces declared a sit-in at Rabi Square being illegal. And they killed at least 817 people in a single day. The general who led the coup still runs the country. Now, almost nobody serious says that Egypt is better off now than before the coup. So whether you're talking about freedoms or you're talking about the economy, they're in a worse place than they were. Now, if we want to look at one more, let's look at Chili's. Military comes in, does a coup, promises to restore order.

• 8:44Tom Bilyeu?

  This is back in 1973. And then they end up keeping an iron grip on power for 17 years. More than 3,000 people were killed or disappeared and tens of thousands were imprisoned and tortured. So if the coup thing sounds like a winning idea to you, you need only look at history to understand this does not go well. This has not become a, all right, everybody, let's hold hands. We finally got the bad guy out of office and now everything is going to be hunky-dory. Democracy is restored. When you get people who understand that violence is a very expedient path to getting what they want, all hell breaks loose. We've got to get some context on America.

• 9:27Tom Bilyeu?

  America was founded on one guiding principle that men and government tend towards tyranny, and that you must protect yourself from that. You do not protect yourself from tyranny by installing military dictators who, by training, by design, take things by force. Okay, so if you're looking at what's going on in Iran and you're saying, I hate that. We got to get this guy out of power. So what I'm going to do is aim that military and that same mentality of I'm just going to take what I want by force when I'm not getting the answer through the democratic process that I want, I'm going to aim that at my own country. That is a level of inability to think that is startling, that I will say again, our country will not survive if this is the thing that we celebrate.

• 10:11Tom Bilyeu?

  Whatever side of the spectrum you're on, you've got to look at your own thinking and say, okay, listen, first of all, I could be wrong. I do not represent everybody. Nobody should think just because I think it, that everybody is going to fall in line. I've got to go win this at the level of ideas. And if I am not able to win this at the level of ideas, then we have a real problem. And that is precisely where we're at. We are not winning ideas at the, or we're not winning over people at the level of ideas. And now with increasingly, with an increasing trend at least being shown on the left, but I certainly don't give anybody a pass on the right. People are more and more saying, nah, fuck it. We're just going to take things. We're going to do this by force. The other side is illegitimate.

• 10:56Tom Bilyeu?

  The other side is an existential threat to our country. And so, yeah, we're going to back military coups. This is so wild. So, yeah, we've got to, my whole thing is, I'm only ever going to be a drop in the ocean. I understand that. But if you can hear my voice right now, understand that what we are trying to put together is a group of people that understand that nobody should want complete and total control. What you should want, as Washington, George Washington showed us, is you should want a system that protects against that. And even when he had the chance to become the king of America, he turned it down. Now, please understand, this is not me going, there's nothing to worry about with Trump,

• 11:40Tom Bilyeu?

  or there's nothing to worry about with the current state of our democracy. There are plenty of things to be concerned about. But anytime you hear somebody talking about toppling the system, instead of re-grounding that system on its foundational principles, which has given the world the longest lasting constitution in history.

• 12:00Tom Bilyeu?

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• 12:43Tom Bilyeu?

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• 14:12Tom Bilyeu?

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• 15:35Tom Bilyeu?

  And slowly but surely, people are losing sight of that and they are reorienting themselves to regional issues, meaning right now, in the last 20 years, these are the problems. And we're acting as if this very country doesn't have something that we can hearken back to, which are the founding principles of what made us as successful as we have been. So, boys and girls, we've really got to be laying out what are the principles that we are going to stand for. I certainly don't expect anybody to stand for the drumbeat that Trump is putting forward, but holy hell, to be going to being welcoming of a military coup that you have nearly a third of people being welcoming of an assassination.

• 16:20Tom Bilyeu?

  Kids, it is a losing strategy. We absolutely can't do this.

• 16:25Speaker 02

  And we shall monitor it because Polly Market has a 66% chance the Democrats sweep the midterms. So it seems that they might be another political swing. And then come January of next year, what would be the political rhetoric? What would be the movements? What would be some of the legislation that's passing? I know even AI has a big, been a big staple with Bernie Sanders now making a Department of AI and all this other stuff, we'll get to that. But with Democrats and Republicans so far away and a flip happening, what do you think is some of the things that will happen after the midterms?

• 16:57Tom Bilyeu?

  Well, first of all, welcome back.

• 16:59Speaker 02

  Thank you.

• 16:59Tom Bilyeu?

  It's wonderful to see you. So that's the right question. I think we have to look at the historical trends here. So the flip almost always happens, so nobody should be getting up in arms about this. I have a strong sense that post the midterms, we're going to be talking a lot about DSA energy on the left, policies that I think are absolutely anathema to the functioning of the country. But what you're not going to hear me call for is a military coup. What you're not going to hear me call for is the assassination of even the people that I am most ardently opposed to. I am, I think that Mombani's policies are going to bring back the New York of the 70s, and that was an absolute hellscape.

• 17:42Tom Bilyeu?

  I'm still not going to want Il to befall him as a person. We either, either the citizens of New York vote him out or they don't. And either we, as the populace, allow the DSA to capture the energy of either party or we don't. But yeah, wanting for violence is crazy. So I'm fully expecting that there's going to be a flip. I don't think Trump has delivered any results that warrant giving him another two years. He's not able to get legislation passed. He's doing everything basically through EOs anyway. So that's not really going to change that. So this, all of this is really about what are we going to see happening in 2028? Who do we want to have control of the country? What are the principles that we're going to be building on top of?

• 18:27Tom Bilyeu?

  Is this going to be packing out the court, making sure that one party basically can reign forever? Things we've already addressed in our past and have historically avoided. I did a walkthrough of how we've gone back and forth on the Supreme Court and the number of judges that we put on the bench, why it ended up getting solidified at nine, all of that, I won't do that again here. But we've lived through a lot of this. And so being able to look back at history and understand, okay, we've made these decisions for a reason. We locked in term limits for the president for a reason. We locked in a certain number of judges for a reason. So all of these things are something where we can revisit the times in the country where we have been our most high-functioning and return to those instead of what we're talking

• 19:12Tom Bilyeu?

  about now, which is wishing for violence. It's absolutely wild. So that, I think.

• 19:16Speaker 02

  JD Vance didn't convince you when he had the video?

• 19:19Tom Bilyeu?

  Give us another chance. Give us another couple of years to continue to work on the amazing things that we've been doing for the past two years. I did not know you were going to play that. But yeah, so that clip is an absolute banger. Give us another chance is the weakest way to say that. He tried to correct himself in the speech. But yeah, listen, at this point, I get anybody who's like, nah, hard pass. I've already seen it. You guys had two years. You didn't do anything with it. The number of things that Trump was like, I'm never going to do that. And then he did that. I get why people are frustrated. So yeah, that I have no beef with. All of this has to exist at the level of, hey, we said we are going to get these results, did we? And so if something doesn't yield the results that you were expecting, then I understand

• 20:03Tom Bilyeu?

  why people are going to go for change. So on that front, yeah, that should not spiral anybody out of control. Now, I'll take this on a candidate by candidate basis. If the candidates are worse, I'm not going to vote simply to have something different if I think that different is worse. It needs to be different and better. But I certainly can't make a blanket statement of, oh, I hope all Republicans win, or I hope all Democrats win. It's really got to be, what is that person standing for? What are they likely to vote for? What is the platform that they're running on? But yeah, anyway, I am fully expecting that they're going to lose the House and the Senate. I am fully expecting that there's going to be real energy pushing towards the Democrat

• 20:43Tom Bilyeu?

  Party for 2028. Looking at the candidates that are popular, I'm mortified. I cannot believe Kamala Harris is still the number one Democrat. That is the craziest shit I've ever heard in my life. Dude, she had a shot to put anything intelligent forward and she was unable to. She triggered my earliest like, whoa, this is now what I would identify as DSA energy, completely socialist, spiraling towards communism. That, that is like her whole shtick. Newsom is an absolute menace. I don't know nearly enough about.

• 21:18Speaker 02

  He got the Paramount deal done, you know, at the final hour.

• 21:21Tom Bilyeu?

  He just backed off, right? Did he actually contribute?

• 21:23Speaker 02

  Yeah, it was looking bad and he was one of the backwards, back rooms voices that was able to get it over.

• 21:28Tom Bilyeu?

  Saying like, we really got to do this?

• 21:29Speaker 02

  You have to do it.

• 21:30Tom Bilyeu?

  He was just worried about Paramount leaving?

• 21:31Speaker 02

  I think it was leaving that dang land, but.

• 21:34Tom Bilyeu?

  Interesting. For somebody that's lived in California for as long as I have, over 30 years, for someone who came here specifically for the film industry, it has been insane to watch it get hollowed out. So for him to at least be like, all right, all right, all right, if you guys are going to stay here and actually create jobs, cool, I'll let this go through. Fine. I'm yay. Like we, I would like to see the film industry stay here because I know what it was like when that was the bread and butter. First of all, American soft power, critical that we'd be telling good stories. And then second, I just want to see it revitalized, man. LA used to really be rad and we have lost a lot of that cultural mojo. So anyway, that would be cool. I would love to see it, but alas.

• 22:17Speaker 02

  I don't know. I think this consolidation is bad. I don't want us to frack though too bad.

• 22:21Tom Bilyeu?

  But that's consolidation that you're opposed to, not Paramount staying here.

• 22:25Speaker 02

  Yes.

• 22:26Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay, so you could say, I'm very sad to see these things coming together. And I would imagine you don't love that it's under a right-leaning group.

• 22:36Speaker 02

  That is, that's, that's where the wind blows. Next election cycle, if the Democrats power on some of that stuff, they're going to be voting for the Democrats.

• 22:44Tom Bilyeu?

  Also true.

• 22:44Speaker 02

  Yeah. So I'm not worried less about that. But after seeing the Disney Fox deal go through, and there's fundamentally less films now being released after Disney absorbed them, I think the same thing is going to happen. Warner Brothers is going to drive all the film releases. Paramount's going to then turn their studio off. And then a year and a half from now, it's going to then, so the total net new movies coming out will be less.

• 23:03Speaker 03

  It already happened with Paramount, actually. When Ellison took over Paramount, Paramount's output got lower and a lot more of the films became action war-type films. And so that's, I think, why they made that 30 movie deal. It's just like both of these companies need to at least make 15 or something. It's my theory.

• 23:20Speaker 02

  And I want to say Warner Brothers has like 20 already on the slate. So it's like Paramount can still do its bare minimum and then just absorb their slate.

• 23:26Speaker 03

  Exactly.

• 23:27Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 23:28Tom Bilyeu?

  Now, I'll give you a different picture of where I think this is going. I think these large conglomerates are going to become increasingly less important. And it's all, dude, some of the stuff coming out of AI is so crazy. So just this morning, one of our developers was like, hey, I created this new thing that I want to show you inside of Kaizen. It was so, look, they're temp assets, but they were so compelling that I was like, holy shit. This is one guy working with AI, being like, okay, I needed to do this and that. Like you still have to, the, the person using the tool still has to be awesome, which is my favorite thing about the current state of AI. In, in weak hands, it gives weak results. In strong hands, it gives dope results. But you're going to see

• 24:12Tom Bilyeu?

  filmmakers just make the realest shit ever. You're going to do it. Ryan's going to do it. We've got Brian, shout out. You guys are going to be making, I'm going to be doing it. We're going to be making stuff with AI that we would not otherwise be able to make. It gets better and better by the day. And therefore there are fewer barriers between your imagination and the people that you're trying to communicate with. This is all going to fracture massively. And all of distribution is effectively going to look like YouTube. In fact, all of distribution will essentially be YouTube. And so people are going to create amazing things, get it distributed easily. There will be far fewer gatekeepers and it will really just be about who can garner attention. And so the Paramount merger is

• 24:53Tom Bilyeu?

  really about, can they be effective marketers? If they can be effective marketers and get people on board and excited about what they're doing, they can cut through the noise, get people to pay attention, then it'll work. But the reality is that that feels like a battle for an old model to me versus where things are actually going to go. And don't think in three-year time horizons. Think in 10 years, 15 years. It is going to be so different that I don't even think people fully understand. So anyway, me as, and we'll get more into this when we start talking about Notch and what his sort of turnaround on AI. But you're going to see, the public will get more and more behind it as they realize, oh, this didn't eliminate my job. This gave me the ability to do something

• 25:37Tom Bilyeu?

  without having to convince somebody else. Now I just have to actually be good at the thing. But I don't have to raise the capital. I don't have to convince anybody. I don't have technical challenges standing between me and the outcome. I just have to be good at storytelling. So that, that is going to be, I think, a boon. Now it'll take time. We'll have to get through all the AI slop first. But on the other side of that, I think it's going to be something pretty extraordinary.

• 26:01Speaker 02

  Nice. All right, we're going to jump over to the UN, but first.

• 26:04Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, before we do that, shout out to our sponsor, Taylor Brands. So you guys know, I teach entrepreneurs. It's one of the core things that I do. And they have made starting a business so much easier. I'm really excited to be partnered with these guys. If you've ever been thinking about starting a company, you know, one of the hardest things that kills momentum in the early days is just getting your company set up. So they take all of the guesswork out of starting a business out of the equation and they just streamline and simplify everything. So if you're thinking about it, Taylor Brands is T A I L O R, Taylor Brands, links in our description. Go check them out. Use them to start your LLC, get everything set up. They can do it in just a few clicks. They're incredible.

• 26:48Tom Bilyeu?

  They've been rocking with us for a while. I'm really, really grateful to those guys. So shout out to Tailor Brands. If you need licensing permits, bookkeeping, business banking, all that stuff, they can help get you set up. So check them out. All right, now, the UN. The UN, this was wild. If you guys didn't treat yourself to watching the full Trump speech, it is a doozy. He treated the UN General Assembly basically as a roast of other nations. I am not celebrating this. It was just wild. So he took the stage to tout accomplishments, right? You would expect that. But also use that time to blast Mexico,

• 27:24Tom Bilyeu?

  Cuba, UNESCO, and Iran. He was in, in rare form. So his cherry on top for Iran was his classic, do I make a deal? Or do I, and this is, if not an exact quote, is so very close, do I drive them to hell before they have a chance to blow anyone else up? Let's take a look at the clip.

• 27:48Speaker 04

  Will a deal be made with Iran that lets them rebuild and create a far greater country than it ever was before? Maybe one of the greatest in the Middle East or even the world?

• 28:02Tom Bilyeu?

  Let's go.

• 28:03Speaker 04

  Or do I annihilate the Islamic Republic?

• 28:06Tom Bilyeu?

  Uh oh.

• 28:06Speaker 04

  And do it quickly, never giving them a chance to kill and destroy people and countries again. Do I drive them into hell with no chance of survival and no hope?

• 28:18Tom Bilyeu?

  They're in the audience.

• 28:19Speaker 04

  Of future greatness or generations?

• 28:23Tom Bilyeu?

  Dude, it is, it really does get wild when you think, like, if you see the wide shot, right about now, the Iranian delegation is like, all right, we're the fuck out. They, they get up, they walk out, as did Cuba when he was trashing them. And it, the irony is certainly not lost on me, though it, obviously, we can have a far more nuanced conversation about this, but it is not lost on me that the guy that is dropping Mahfouziv bombs on their country is murdering their leadership. I mean, just, I know it's war and it gets like a weird pass, but murdering their leadership is then like, can you imagine? These guys might get weapons and murder people. That would be wild. So listen, I'm being cheeky.

• 29:07Tom Bilyeu?

  I understand. I am definitely, I wish we had not done this the way that we did. I think we needed to do this 20 years ago or not at all. But it is the irony of, of the way that countries are structured is when you're the country that everybody has to make good with for them to survive, you can do things that if another country is doing it, you suddenly look at them askance. Now remember, Iran sees themselves as the heroes. Iran sees themselves as doing God's work. And if they've got to kill 10,000 of their own citizens, whatever, the number fluctuates. Some people say it's 5,000, some people say it's 100,000, whatever the real number is, they admit that they shot their own civilians.

• 29:54Tom Bilyeu?

  And to them, it's like, listen, we're doing God's work. If these guys are gonna try to stop God, we gotta shoot them. And so it, it's the same. You've got Trump. Now, I happen to be more on the camp of America stands for something that I would far more like to see spread around the world. However, uh, it's very similar. Like we're, he doesn't say doing God's work, but you know, we're doing the right thing. We can't let these guys terrorize anybody else, which by the way, I would agree with. But nonetheless, uh, we are going in and doing the very thing that we're saying that they're going to do if we were to allow them to get a nuclear, um, umbrella.

• 30:37Tom Bilyeu?

  Now, it's very easy to make a moral case for why yes, America and no Iran. But it's, I think, a little too cute to pretend like one cannot see the hypocrisy here.

• 30:48Speaker 02

  Yeah. And especially in the United Nations where there's nations at war, there's nations that we're in conflict with, there's nations that are actively suing other nations for war crimes. So it's, everybody's in the same room. Everybody's kind of doing this big thing.

• 31:02Tom Bilyeu?

  And, and he certainly is not afraid just to say it to their face. Now, of course, political theater, they get up, they walk out only to basically walk out, go down the street and have a meeting with, um, I think it was Kushner or Whitkoff again. But it is, I mean, these, these are wild times. This is what it looks like when you're reordering the entire globe.

• 31:23Speaker 02

  And then Trump also goes on to address the midterms and the threat that they're waiting for.

• 31:27Tom Bilyeu?

  This is interesting. So let me set this up really fast. So, uh, later in the speech, Trump goes on to talk about, um, exactly what role the midterms play in his thinking. And I was surprised because at the end of this, as you're gonna hear, the audience actually claps. So there were a lot of times where he says some really bombastic stuff and it's crickets, nothing. But in this moment, when he talks about, I'm not gonna let the midterm stop me, I'm not running away, it got applause. Let's listen.

• 32:00Speaker 04

  But I believe we'll make a deal right after the election because it doesn't make sense for them not to. They're waiting to see how I do in the midterm election. What they don't realize is that I'm not running. I did that already and won in a landslide. We won in a giant landslide and I'll be here for two and a half years. The Republican Party is running and I'll be helping them, but I am not running. I gave absolutely no credence and will not give credence to the election when it comes to Iran. It doesn't even enter my mind.

• 32:40Speaker 04

  The only thing that does is that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon. The cowards and traitors, thank you.

• 32:52Tom Bilyeu?

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• 33:59Tom Bilyeu?

  Thanks for sticking around. Let's get right back into the action. There's clearly support for Iran not getting a nuclear weapon. It's not something that everybody wants to see for sure. Now, this is a hotly debated thing. There are plenty of people here in America that think that we have no right to stop them from pursuing a nuclear program. There are people here in America, uh, that think, well, hold on a second. We have nukes. Israel has nukes supposedly. There are many other countries that have. What right do we have to go in and bomb people, uh, kill their civilians, kill their military leadership to try to stop them from doing something that we've already done? And this to me is, if, if I were an alien looking at this, one of the things that I

• 34:42Tom Bilyeu?

  would find most fascinating to get an answer to is what does it look like on the other side of this? What does it look like? Does Iran ultimately get a nuclear weapon? What do they do with that? Do they actually go and bully people? Are they a, do they represent a not unique moral evil, but do they represent something that is very easy morally to stack in a hierarchy? Or did America long ago give up any sort of moral centering that makes their behavior justifiable? And this is one of those things that will play out in the fullness of time. And either the US is going to, um, finally get a deal done with Iran, either before

• 35:25Tom Bilyeu?

  or after doing additional damage to the country and/or they end up not being able to back down Iran. Iran continues with their nuclear program and is ultimately successful in building up because the, the concern is really twofold. One, that they'll build a conventional ballistic missile program that makes it impossible to go in and stop them because they can blow up anybody from the GCC nations all the way to actually hitting London, Paris, so on and so forth. That would put them in a, that would put the world in a very different position because now you strike Forteau and they're like, all right, word. And then they hit Paris, they hit London, um, they hit GCC nations and they're like, you want to keep playing?

• 36:09Tom Bilyeu?

  And so then of course, people are going to be even less likely to move. Now, keep in mind, even before this, every president up to and including the first round that Trump had, didn't move on Iran militarily. So everybody was already afraid of what the consequences were going to be. Either they felt that we gave up any moral stance, that we didn't have a right to do that, or that it would trigger some sort of cascade like what we're living through now. So you've got all of that already looming even before they had the full capability to stop anybody from actually shutting them down. So what does it look like if they actually have that ability and they can strike London? They can strike Paris? They can strike, uh, other places in Europe at will?

• 36:53Tom Bilyeu?

  Obviously at that point, people are gonna be way, way, way, way less likely to try to do some sort of limited incursion. Now, if they were to actually strike Europe, then you could see something becoming just full escalation. Europe gets on board and it's like, all right, we really do have to shut these guys down. But oof, that, that would be rough if they're able to continue to build out their ballistic missile program. So in the fullness of time, we're gonna see what ends up happening here. But, um, I think anybody that looks at the US and says, yeah, we just have no right, we shouldn't be doing this, let them develop whatever they want. The odds that there are second and third order consequences there that are far more destabilizing to the world, even though what we're seeing now is extreme.

• 37:35Tom Bilyeu?

  So they were enthusiastically touting the fact that they have ballistic missiles that could reach, um, Europe. And you can imagine that left unfettered, that they would continue to make that capability even greater. Um, so yeah, this is one unfortunately, that's not gonna be clean because when we're having the conversation at the level of, let's say ought, and we're not making contact with what actually will happen? What are the human tendencies towards violence, towards aggression, towards expansionism? And so we live in a world where people have been, certainly for everybody's lifetime that's alive right now, we've been living in a world where the US kept everybody in check.

• 38:20Tom Bilyeu?

  And so if you were a friend of the US, you basically didn't want to spend the money to overdevelop. So your militaries were kept pretty chill. So think of Japan, which didn't develop at all for, um, very specific reasons. Germany, who developed, but not a lot, though they're now reversing course on that. And so the people that were friends, they were chill because we were protecting them. And then the people that weren't chill, we kept in check by either sanctioning them or doing some sort of limited military incursion or by trying to coup their government, uh, with CIA-type powers. So the world, which has been incredibly peaceful by historical standards, incredibly prosperous

• 39:04Tom Bilyeu?

  by historical standards, by any measure, quite frankly. Uh, and now that we're coming out of that, you have to expect a reversion to the historical mean of countries being far more violent, far more expansionary. And so we're, when we have this debate, we've got to make contact with that reality. And so one of the questions that I rarely see come up in these debates, especially when people are talking about Israel, Palestine, is okay, what does it look like when the other side is able to, um, build up their military in an unfettered fashion? Like what do you actually think is gonna play out? Stretch that out 10, 20, 30 years. What does it really look like? Do they just become peaceful? Or do they, do we get another aggressive player on the field?

• 39:49Tom Bilyeu?

  And then I'm just curious to hear what people's argument is, that yes, they're going to become militaristic. Yes, they're gonna build up their military and rightly so. They've been persecuted and held back for so long and that's just the natural consequence. And yes, now you're gonna have to find diplomatic solutions. Some people may say exactly that. Um, so at least then we're having the conversation at where people have to lay out what their base assumptions are about what the future looks like, instead of just banging our head against the trees and never seeing the forest. Um, so I think that would be a far more productive debate and we're gonna be forced into confronting that reality as our continued involvement in Iran plays out towards a final conclusion.

• 40:32Speaker 02

  What do you say to the people that have that opposite viewpoint that say, once a country gets a nuke, America leaves them alone? I'm thinking of North Korea, Pakistan, like, there's certain countries that have had nuclear capabilities that the nuke has become the deterrent. So if some people are saying if Iran had a nuke this entire time, we wouldn't even been in there.

• 40:53Tom Bilyeu?

  That's almost certainly true.

• 40:54Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 40:54Tom Bilyeu?

  So keep in mind, until Trump, we didn't move and they didn't have a nuke. So the odds that we dramatically extend the, I'm not going after you because you have a nuke, is extremely high. And so now if the conversation stops there and then we go, yeah, like, see, they should, it was wrong of us to go into Iran. Even Tom is saying that, like, either this needed to be 20 years ago or not at all. So why would he not want them to have a nuke? And that's where I'm like, yes, now pick up the conversation there. So pick up the conversation at, Iran now has a nuke, what do they do? And if people have the base assumption that they're essentially going to try to be the regional hegemon in the Middle East, and that they are going to try to build a caliphate

• 41:38Tom Bilyeu?

  in the Middle East, and now they're, let's say they're economically strong, they're able to get a tithe or whatever from everybody in the Middle East that's trying to ship through the Strait of Hormuz, and they can choke it off whenever they want, and they get all of the, um, the agreements that they need because like the US, they can force the issue. What does that world look like? And are we, as a globe, are we better off if Iran has a nuclear weapon? And if you think, yes, we're in a better position with Iran in control of the Middle East, um, and then you're going to look at this and say, they should rush to getting a nuke. If you look at that and go, the last thing you want is a theocratic regime that's willing

• 42:22Tom Bilyeu?

  to kill its own people to have a nuclear weapon and now be able to run the table on the Middle East, which by the way, will immediately be, um, several countries, because they've already said they would, coming to the US and saying, okay, we now need to have our own nukes as well. And so now you get additional nuclear proliferation. And so you've got, you know, whatever, uh, 70, 80 year history of countries not using nuclear weapons. And do you now go into an era where the use of nuclear weapons becomes way more likely because you have now two nuclear armed states, assuming that Israel is nuclear armed, they obviously use strategic ambiguity. But if you've got Iran nuclear armed, Israel nuclear armed, you've got another essentially,

• 43:03Tom Bilyeu?

  uh, Pakistan and India problem where they share, not share a border, but they're so close to each other and they fucking hate each other, uh, both getting ready to unleash. And so is that a better world or a worse world? And so a lot of this comes down to, uh, okay, you're looking at a country that has said a big part of why we exist is to get rid of Israel. You've got two theocracies that are now both think that they're doing God's will and in exactly equal and opposite measures. Now, I think it'll play out in the way that it's playing out in Russia, Ukraine, like, if you had, if Ukraine had nuclear weapons, would Russia have invaded? Let's assume that they wouldn't have.

• 43:44Tom Bilyeu?

  So there's that level of deterrence, which is exactly what the GCC nations will say. You gotta give us nukes so that they won't mess with us. Um, but even when you have that unbalanced side, you see restraint from Russia because they know the rest of the world is going to have beef. And so as people model that out is going to determine how they feel about whether we just blanket, want to leave Iran alone to get a nuclear weapon. So like, I think that that is not a world that we want. We don't want additional proliferation. We certainly don't want another theocratic regime to have nuclear weapons. And so, um, given the limited nature of the incursions so far, it's like, yes, I think that you're better off if you can stop them from getting that nuclear umbrella, but it

• 44:28Tom Bilyeu?

  comes down to that base assumption.

• 44:30Speaker 02

  Yeah. We have another comment in the chat, um, I want to highlight that talks about that Trump, just like Bush, doesn't have any credible evidence for the reason for this war, similar to the weapons of mass destruction. We're talking about the precursor to, they had a nuke, they were two weeks away, and Israel was the reason that they were to, was the intelligence. We found out later in, after everything kind of happened, that intelligence was old. We decimated their bombs six months ago for the three day war, and then it wasn't, uh, it wasn't decimated, it was rebuilt, but it wasn't rebuilt at the capacity in which we assumed it was.

• 45:06Tom Bilyeu?

  We know all of that's untrue. So I don't know if they just aren't paying attention, or if they are intentionally like obfuscating things.

• 45:16Speaker 02

  So the two week, the two weeks away?

• 45:17Tom Bilyeu?

  Forget the two weeks.

• 45:18Speaker 02

  Okay.

• 45:19Tom Bilyeu?

  Call it, call it a year, two years, whatever. But Iran, their own administration has admitted, we were building a nuclear program. We want nuclear weapons and we could not keep it a secret. Okay, I've played that clip on this show multiple times. Uh, second of all, they keep saying over and over and over that it is our right to develop a nuclear program and we will never stop. I think it was, uh, Argachi or however you say his name, I think he has said that directly. So these are people who are just saying the thing out loud. We're going to develop a nuclear program, nobody has the right to stop us. So we have been stymieing the Iranian regime from building a nuclear, we, the, call it the Greater West, have been stymieing them for a long time, going back to Stuxnet, uh,

• 46:04Tom Bilyeu?

  which was, God, when was that, like, early 2000s? So, um, they've been trying to build a nuclear program, which we know because there's no reason to develop anything over like 9% or something, uh, enriched, and they've gone all the way to 60%. There, there is no use for that other than a weapons program. So it's like, they're doing all of the things, including saying, we want it, we're going to have it, and we've already enriched up to 60 plus percent. So like, that's known and established. Nobody should be saying they weren't developing a nuclear program. What do you mean? Like, that, to me, is just like, I, I don't even know what people are talking about. Now, if you want to say they have a right to a nuclear program, that's a totally different argument, and sure, is a worthwhile debate to have.

• 46:48Tom Bilyeu?

  But to say that they weren't doing one is ridiculous. Also, the Trump administration, I think they have been terrible at messaging why they did this war, which is why I think that their motives were a very, very, very far away from being pure. But the argument for, they did a thing that I would want them to do, even though they did it for the wrong reasons, would go something like this. Iran was building a traditional, um, ballistic missile program that was going to allow them to stop anybody from coming in and stopping them from building a nuclear program. So they were going to use underground, traditional ballistic missiles that can reach Europe and obviously the GCC as a way to build a nuclear weapons program, and then they were going

• 47:32Tom Bilyeu?

  to stockpile themselves like crazy. And so you need, i- if you believe you need to interrupt that, then you had to take action. So the justification for the war, even though I don't think this was the real reason that Trump did it, I think it was like, oh, and we also have, um, that really is there. And so you can have the argument about whether you think the Trump administration did this for the right reason, but very clearly, given how much they've been able to stymie us, they really were building that program. It really is underground, it really is getting harder to, um, dictate their behavior on the nuclear front. And so the, the two week thing is just, like, that's a headline. That's to get people to feel a sense of urgency.

• 48:15Tom Bilyeu?

  It's like a classic sales approach, but it doesn't mean that it negates the underlying truth of they're building weapons. It's just hard to get people to act when you go, it's probably somewhere between a year and three years. People be like, nah, like, fuck it, leave it alone. And it's like, i- if you really believe, we've got to move on this because we understand the ballistic missile capabilities, we understand how they could get to the point where we can't stop them, plus, I, Israel, I, US, want to stop them when it's far easier, yeah, I've got to move years ahead of time. So you, you're going to have a harder time selling that. But for the sophisticated among us, who I hope everybody listening right now is that level of sophisticated, just do the thought experiment. Okay, if they were on a path that would make it harder and harder to stop them, where's

• 49:00Tom Bilyeu?

  your line? Is there a point at which, okay, if they bury enough weapons, if they have a weapon that can reach within, you know, whatever, 2,000 miles of mainland Europe, like, just tell me what your line is. And if they say, I have no line, cool, I know your thinking, I know where you're at. If they say they have a line and we just moved too soon, okay, at least I understand your thinking, I think it's probably wrong headed. Now, if you want to say, well, Trump is a moron and I fucking hate him and I can't have this guy in office, because even though those reasons are real, he did it, he did the right thing for the wrong reason, it's like, okay, we can quabble over, quibble over that, um, but to me, I would much rather have the conversation of, but did he do the right thing? Wrong reasons or not, did he do the right thing?

• 49:45Tom Bilyeu?

  Then I would want to center on, because you can have that argument and say, no, because it's immoral, because it was so early, it is the wrong thing. Okay, you've got a moral framework, it's like, I can understand your argument having at least internal consistency. Then I know what we actually disagree about. But right now, everybody zooms in on, well, the messaging of this was retarded, and it was. And, uh, he did it for the wrong reasons. Yeah, he probably did. It was a mix of things. I think he was being honest about wanting to stop them from having nuclear weapons, but I think he was using a sales tactic. Um, I think he probably was, um, certainly positioned by Israel. I don't think he would ever dance to anybody's tune, but positioned by Israel, they're

• 50:28Tom Bilyeu?

  going to frame their intel in a way that makes it seem way more urgent, you got to move now, yada, yada. But at the end of the day, his motives were muddy. I think a lot of this can be understood by recognizing the entire, the entire global economy is making one bet on AI. And you need to transform oil money into AI investments in the West, obviously, if you're the US. And so you're thinking, who's stopping me? And instability in that region, not being able to get the whole region focused on economics is one of the big things. And so I'm going to come in and stop Iran.

• 51:05Speaker 02

  Yeah. That justification like confuses me a little bit because I think the region was more stable before we were there. Now, mind you, you can talk about Iran's intentions, you can talk about what they were doing on the ground, you could talk about what they would have done if they did have these things. But what I don't think is true is to say that the region wasn't unstable and then we came and stabilized it.

• 51:27Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay, let's talk about this from the level of, um, God, this was in Texas, Ryan. It was a religious cult leader who ended up the Branch Davidians, David Koresh. Okay, we got there. So David Koresh, right, has

• 51:44Speaker 02

  Nothing related to the story.

• 51:45Tom Bilyeu?

  What?

• 51:46Speaker 02

  Sorry. I don't follow religious

• 51:48Tom Bilyeu?

  What? Oh, my God, this is where we realize how old I am. Okay. Holy shit.

• 51:54Speaker 02

  I can look it up though.

• 51:55Tom Bilyeu?

  Wow, I'm legitimately beside myself in shock right now. Okay, so you've got these guys, they're the Branch Davidians, they're building a compound, they've got all kinds of weapons, they've got kids, the cult leaders like sleeping with the kids and like all this crazy shit.

• 52:09Speaker 03

  Is this the Waco story?

• 52:10Speaker 02

  Got it. I didn't know the guy's name, I just know Waco. Got it, okay, okay, okay.

• 52:14Speaker 03

  I know Waco.

• 52:15Tom Bilyeu?

  Now, that is a pretty good analogy for what's happening right now because all hell broke loose and basically only bad things came of it. But what you had was a bad situation that needed to be addressed and the way that we addressed it ended up creating a clusterfuck. So separating the, it did need to be addressed. And so now we can go over whether, how should it have been addressed?

• 52:40Speaker 02

  Could we speedrun the comparisons?

• 52:42Tom Bilyeu?

  Speedrun is, they hunker down and the government, FBI, I think, they show up armed to the fucking teeth, like guns, tanks, everything. And they end up like throwing a smoke grenade inside or something and it catches something on fire, but like people were getting shot and killed, it was fucking crazy. And so if the Branch Davidians had just gone, oh, word, yep, cool, come on in, like do what you're gonna do, take our guns, arrest us, shame on us, I shouldn't have been sleeping with the underage kids and all that, like it's fucking bad. That isn't what happened. They were like, nope, we're not coming out, we've got guns. And so there was like some back and forth shooting and all that, but what the US did

• 53:22Tom Bilyeu?

  escalated so ferociously that way, way more people died than needed to die. And I think like all of the kids or most of the kids end up burning to death in the house, I mean, just like horrific. So you need to do something, but your intervention becomes a bigger problem. So they destabilized the situation, but the situation was already unstable. And so now the question where the debate I think is far more interesting is, okay, you have a situation in Iran that you need to deal with. Already base assumption, some people are going to disagree with that, but that would be what I would put forward. You've got a country that is a theocratic regime that is promising to kill another group

• 54:05Tom Bilyeu?

  in the region that is building up weapons such that they can back down Europe by striking them with ballistic missiles. They are marching towards getting a nuclear weapon which will cause proliferation. Okay, so that's a situation that I will call already unstable. But it isn't the sort of open, things are blowing up, bombs are flying everywhere kind of unstable. So debating how to address that threat is a great question, and I'm certainly not putting forward that the way that we did it was the right way. I'm just saying, calling the situation before we moved in stable is a bit of a cheek. And then anybody saying, we've handled it perfectly, would also be ridiculous. So how do you address already unstable situations? That's the debate that we have to have.

• 54:50Speaker 02

  Got you. You mentioned it earlier, after Trump's speech, they did end up having deliberations with the Iranian officials, they sat together for about three hours. So after nearly seven months of war, this was the biggest diplomatic opening yet. This is a tweet from Mario Norfall. Trump says the meeting in New York was very good and very productive with another round expected soon. The contrast is extraordinary. Iran arrived in New York demanding concessions before de-escalation. Trump arrived warning that his choice was essentially a deal or devastating military actions. Arab governments were still scrambling to bring the two sides together, then they actually talked. Something has changed, so we'll be hopeful on that side. Polly market only gives it a 7% chance that a deal gets done in 2026 though, so.

• 55:31Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, that seems pretty bang on.

• 55:32Speaker 02

  More months of war, God.

• 55:34Tom Bilyeu?

  Something has changed. I think they end that piece with something that probably isn't true. The only thing that's changing is how much economic suffering is Iran willing to endure? And so we could say that, okay, the thing that changed is we have finally, through the Anaconda strategy that Besen laid out, we have now put enough pressure on them that they're willing to try to negotiate, but I don't think a deal is going to come from this. So Iran is, they're very good. If, if our long history of trying to negotiate with Iran can be believed, they are very good at coming to the table and making it seem like they're willing to talk as a method

• 56:18Tom Bilyeu?

  of buying time. And the, nothing, if they can get any sort of sanctions loosened, they have nothing to lose by buying time, which is why their big ask is move, remove the blockade so that we can start selling oil again. And then we're fine because we can continue to pay for things and we're not worried about anything internally. We can take a lot of suffering, we will definitely outlast you. Their whole stated goal is to get to the 2028 election or 27 election for a 28 takeover. They fully expect the Republicans to be out and to get back to something that's more Biden or Obama style leniency and they'll run the table.

• 57:00Tom Bilyeu?

  We'll try to put restrictions on their, you know, IAEA or whatever the name of the nuclear agency was, and they just ignored them. And they kept building a program and the group was saying, hey, these guys are not following the guidelines, but what are you gonna do? You're gonna re-invade? So they know that if they can get the Republicans out of office, no universe in which the Democrats would go in and invade Iran, not gonna happen. So that's their plan. So is it more likely than buying time than them really being like, you know, please, sir, we would really like to come to an agreement? It's like they've been saying that every day, like that's, what Trump will ask you to believe

• 57:44Tom Bilyeu?

  is that behind the scenes are constantly saying, let's come to a deal. And then every negotiator is like, that's what they do. They say, we want a deal, but in reality, they just want to buy time.

• 57:53Speaker 02

  We shall keep monitoring the situation. So Anthropic and OpenAI both delayed their IPOs, they're both calling for government daddy to save them. I think the cat's out the bag now, like the safety thing isn't really necessarily hitting as hard, but I don't know, what's your algorithm telling you? How's it looking on your side?

• 58:11Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, I think the reality is that you are always going to be able to count on people to be afraid and that that fear is going to have a massive impact on what people will go for. Never underestimate the power of fear. Now Drew is a high information person, so unfortunately to him, I think it looks like the world is really turning in a way that I don't think we can count on yet. But getting specific, OpenAI and Anthropic may be in big trouble as you've got Alex Karp once again warning that the AI industry has massive litigation risk and Scott Besen coming in to back up that notion, making it clear that the Trump administration is not going to save them.

• 58:53Tom Bilyeu?

  Now, some people will say that Palantir CEO Alex Karp is an insider because they do so much in AI and that is certainly how I mean it when I refer to him as an insider. Other people will note that he is in some ways very competitive against the companies like OpenAI and Anthropic. So take his analysis with a grain of salt. But Alex Karp is making trouble basically for the AI industry as a whole right now. He's pointing out what I think is pretty obvious. And he went on CNBC talking about this, poking a hole in the AI safety debate, trying to get people to understand that this was never really about just regulation, although that is a huge part of it, it's also about them wanting to dodge lawsuits. Let's take a listen.

• 59:34Speaker 05

  People who think the way we do, that's why you can't work with the military, that's why you can take the IP from businesses and put it in your model. That, that model would require severe liability protection. And there's only one institution that can do that, the US government. And then that's before you get to the danger. So what was really happening is the investors loved when he was migrating all the value of everyone else's business to their business because they're investors. They don't realize, it's like, it's like every mark, they don't realize they're the mark. Because now you, first you migrate all the IP to your business and then because you need uncapped, you need capped liability, both vis a vis the business and vis a vis

• 1:00:17Speaker 05

  the dangers, you've got to migrate the business to the government, it has to be nationalized.

• 1:00:21Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay, so now can people actually count on Trump, the Trump administration to nationalize them? I think the answer is absolutely not. Now, would Trump prop up the frontier models in some way, knowing him, by taking huge shares in the company on behalf of the American people, which I think is a terrible idea, but nonetheless, could I see him doing that? Yes, absolutely. But is he going to protect these guys from litigation prior to that? Absolutely not. So that's really where this is going to play out, is you're going to see an increased push for, take shares in our company, like we're gonna IPO and you guys should be one of the buyers. It'll be something like that or pre-IPO, in fact, that's what they would do. We're gonna give you shares pre-IPO so that when we IPO, you're gonna be able to say

• 1:01:06Tom Bilyeu?

  we got a huge win for the American people. Oh, God, as I sit here and think about this, I could definitely see that playing out. Now Treasury Secretary Scott Besen certainly agrees with Alex Karp on the fact that no one should be protecting the AI companies from litigation risk because the surest way to make sure that these guys actually make sure that their product is safe is for them to be on the hook for liability if it isn't safe. And I'll just remind everybody that ultimately right now, what we need is, we need these companies to be looking at their own safety initiatives.

• 1:01:48Tom Bilyeu?

  Recognizing that a big part of the hugging face incident was them with a poor testing setup that actually gave the agents access to the internet and they were instructed to go hack the shit out of things. So giving them a way to access the internet, which is foolish on humans' part, while telling them to go hack something is what created the problem. And so if you want companies to make sure that something is safe, you need only expect them to adhere to laws that are already on the books. And so the way that the AI companies are talking is as if there aren't already consumer protections that insist on products being safe. And so we really do need to, as we navigate this very complex field, we need

• 1:02:32Tom Bilyeu?

  to remind ourselves that the US has a history of navigating this delineation between, okay, over here on this side, we have pure safety, but regulation that stifles all innovation. And over here, we have innovation that is careful not to cross over into some dangerous scenario that could really create problems for people. And we have walked that line better than any other country, which is why we have outpaced Europe for decade after decade in terms of growth. And the only country that sweats us and beats us on a growth scale is China. And the reason that China's been able to do it is they're way less cautious than we are, and they had a much, much lower starting point. So when you look at that,

• 1:03:17Tom Bilyeu?

  the two countries that are focused the most on innovation are growing the most, and the countries that are most focused on regulation do not. And so that's really going to be the decision that we have to make. And to hold people accountable in that high innovation scenario, you've got to make sure that they're held accountable to the laws that already exist that protect people from this kind of stuff, rather than becoming Europe and stifling innovation. All right. So anyway, let's hear from Scott Besant, who's going to speak to exactly that.

• 1:03:44Speaker 06

  Imagine these labs came out, or one lab in specific, a sitting employee came out, said there's a 10% chance of an extinction level event, but then the labs also said, take the liability off of our hands. And we will not do that. I am in agreement with MIT professor who leads the AI lab up there, Daniel Hutton Locker, that it is humans who are responsible, not the AI. The hugging face incident, that is responsibility of the OpenAI management, not a bunch of agents. So what the president was saying is that we cannot

• 1:04:24Speaker 06

  say, oh, we absolve you of responsibility and the government's going to take responsibility. These labs need to take responsibility for themselves. They can slow down anytime they want to. Imagine these-

• 1:04:37Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah. So that is the exact right approach. We have laws. These guys need to adhere to those laws. If they're looking into the future and they see something with these models that is legitimately dangerous, then they should absolutely slow down. They should not just go guns a blazing, no matter what, taking every risk in the world. Like every company before them, they should be thinking about, okay, what are the risk levels here? And are we comfortable with it, knowing that we're going to be liable on the backend? And so again, this is something we talked about previously, but you've got this same thing that played out in the region of vaccines, right? And one of the things that we have to revisit is whether we want to give companies that kind of get out of jail free card, there's

• 1:05:21Tom Bilyeu?

  going to be no consequences. Do we think that that led to something good in the vaccine industry? And if you have a base assumption that yes, it did, then you're going to say the government should step in here and regulate this technology. It's so important. And if you don't, and you're like, hold on, these companies need to be accountable to the people that are using their product and getting hurt by it. And so we've got to remove that. Then you're going to think, all right, hey, there's already laws on the books. These guys just need to be held accountable. Two very different base assumptions, but easy to put on the table and say, I agree this way or that way.

• 1:05:51Speaker 02

  Yeah. How do you think this all plays out? Because it seems like they're asking for help. They're not getting that help now. The IPOs are delayed. Are they going to be, is this just a historic redoing of the railroad industry and all these other industries that we talked about previously? They just laid the groundwork and some new upstart like Deep Seek or Kimmy or whatever is going to just take them?

• 1:06:12Tom Bilyeu?

  It's next to impossible to know how it will actually play out, but I can lay some breadcrumbs, like if this is true, then you're likely to see this. If that ends up being true, you're likely to see this. So if in 2028, Democrats take power and a candidate like Kamala Harris comes into power that is very socialist minded, you're going to see a return to Biden era approach to this, where they said to Marc Andreessen directly, don't even bother investing in any more AI companies. The government's going to be in control of that. We are going to have two or three companies that we oversee completely, and that'll be that. It'll be a naked grab for power, because if you look at the way

• 1:06:52Tom Bilyeu?

  that the left responded to COVID, it was very aggressively sensorial. They want a control of all social media so they could control essentially what people thought. And AI is the new way that people think. And so they are for sure going to grab a hold of that and make sure that the AI can't be saying things that is not approved messaging. That's my nightmare scenario, but that is certainly where I think they were going on that side. I think that they will regulate the industry to death in an effort to keep everybody safe. That'll certainly be the messaging. But again, I really think it's about power, and I think it's about, that's going to be the, the voting block that they will build will look something like this. The world has gotten too expensive because billionaires are evil, and we're going

• 1:07:35Tom Bilyeu?

  to, from the top down, we're just going to force it. Kamala Harris literally said these things when she was running, that they were looking at grocery stores. This is when I noped out of Kamala Harris. We're looking at grocery stores. We're going to drive the cost down there. That's when I understood she didn't understand the economy, that she was going to break the engine of prosperity. So that'll be the safety block that they build. We're going to take care of AI for you. We're going to control it. It's not going to say crazy things. It is going to, it's not going to take your job. We're going to make sure that workers are protected. And so that'll be the thing. China is not making any of these mistakes. I think the US, you've got like 32% of people have a favorable view of AI. If that's not literally correct, it's very close. In China, it's 85% or 84%. And

• 1:08:19Tom Bilyeu?

  so the disparity between the way the two countries look at AI is crazy. So that is what's likely to directionally play out. If we elect someone like Kamala Harris, you're going to see that become an element of control. You're going to see innovation slow down. There's going to be a regulatory moat put around. You're going to have these gigantic companies that build AI, but they build it in a way that the government deems to be okay, in a way that the government can control. You're going to not have open source or open weight models. The flip, if somehow, some way a Marco Rubio or a JD Vance gets elected,

• 1:08:59Tom Bilyeu?

  then you're going to see a continuation of what we have now, which is going to be either, unfortunately, they invest in these companies as a way to provide some assurances that we don't lose to China. So that if we go through that sort of trough of despair that I've described before, where the debt outpaces the revenues, you can expect the government to sort of step in in that fashion, funnel deals to them, that kind of thing, to make sure that they stay afloat. But open source will exist, and so you'll continue to get innovation. And so that would be the one that I'd be far, far less afraid of. Now, you can insert the debate about artificial superintelligence. Obviously, the control

• 1:09:42Tom Bilyeu?

  scenario, the safety scenario is going to be far less likely that the US creates artificial superintelligence, but it does absolutely nothing to stop China from developing artificial superintelligence. So that risk is effectively not mitigated at all. And that really becomes the, the flip side of that coin is if you've got the US pursuing it as fast as they can, if you're worried about ASI, they're certainly not going to stop the US from contributing to that problem. So that'll be a big debate.

• 1:10:15Speaker 02

  Yeah. It's, it's interesting because this was supposed to be the, you know, $2 trillion IPO season and all these other things. And now it's just crickets and-

• 1:10:23Tom Bilyeu?

  Well, also, they've sucked so much money out of the economy. So as you've got interest rates rising, that's part of this. You've got, we haven't talked about this in a while. You've got Japan unwinding the yen carry trade. That's sucking liquidity out of the entire system. So people are already fretting about where is this debt coming from? There's no way this is all high quality debt that's going into AI, which puts them at even greater risk. And so when you start looking at the inflation caused by energy, when you look at the Fed tightening, when you look at the Japan carry trade unwinding, when you look

• 1:11:03Tom Bilyeu?

  at the economy softening and people spending less, you don't have to look any farther than what's going on at Walmart to see that that's really true. So as you start looking at all of that, it's like, this gets pretty questionable at best. And so for them to push forward to do an IPO, they've got to know where that money's going to come from. And right now, they're like, yeah, I'm not so sure. So we've got a sort of dual track. We want to build hype with all the fear to do what I call fear as the, the proof of power. So you build the hype by saying, look how dangerous it is. And so if that catches hold, maybe you can get the average everyday person to go. But you would need basically capital to largely

• 1:11:48Tom Bilyeu?

  rotate out of something else. And so is it going to rotate out of gold? Is it going to rotate out of crypto? Is it going to rotate out of SpaceX AI? But it's got to come from somewhere. And I don't think right now anybody sees an obvious target.

• 1:12:01Speaker 02

  Yeah. And just as you have claimed that the Kobishi letter just talked about the 10-year note, he'll yield rising to 5.05% is highest level since July of 2027.

• 1:12:13Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, I think we were recently at 5.02. So it's not like this is skyrocketing by any means, but it's certainly still moving in the wrong direction.

• 1:12:20Speaker 02

  Mortgage rates pushing at 7.5 is the thing I definitely want to highlight. That's-

• 1:12:24Tom Bilyeu?

  That's still historically low. Like, that's not a crazy number. But you have a very weird thing breaking in the economy, which is young people are just not able to compete successfully for homes. And so the average age going up to 40, I believe, of a first time home buyer is a very, very, very bad signal. So yeah, it's interesting. We're going to be looking at this in hour three today. Has the world actually got less affordable? I think it's a very powerful question that we're going to be exploring in depth. So certainly stay tuned for that today. It's a mixed bag. It's not a clear story. So-

• 1:13:04Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, well, well, it it's moving in the wrong direction. We are not at panic stages. It's indicating something that is not ideal. Uh, you have a compression between the two year and the 10 year rates, which tell you that basically the two year says, I don't trust the Fed to do the right thing. Uh, so the rates rising there are basically like, yeah, these guys are going to do near term stuff that like, I'm, I think is stupid. And so you're gonna have to pay me more to get in here. Uh, but the 10 year is like, my forecast of long-term demand. And the 10 year actually isn't rising very high as we see. So when you see compression there, that's a pretty clear signal that people think the Fed is doing fuckery and that the economy is weak and going to get weaker.

• 1:13:48Speaker 02

  Yeah. All right. We have to jump over to some gaming news. Um, I found this absolutely hilarious that Microsoft is now filing a patent for ads that would interrupt games after boss fights, cutscenes, quests and multiple player rounds. Uh, I'll be so mad if I'm in the middle of playing a video game and it stops in an ad place. I might check out. It's already diabolical that they do that on Netflix, like mid movie climax, stop, pause, four minutes of ads, and then they get you back into the movie. If they do that, if they come for the video games, I don't know. That might be it for me.

• 1:14:20Tom Bilyeu?

  I love this so much.

• 1:14:22Speaker 02

  You love it.

• 1:14:22Tom Bilyeu?

  Oh, my God.

• 1:14:23Speaker 02

  There's no way you love ads.

• 1:14:24Tom Bilyeu?

  Bro, I hope they run so many ads. I hope they charge uh, an absolute fortune to opt out of the ads. Cause remember I'm a game developer and Kaizen is not going to do any of that bullshit. And so I am going to sell against this so hard. If these guys actually go through with this, which would be so shocking as people will be irate. But hey, if they want to do it, but here's ultimately, this comes down to a cultural battle. So AAA games as of right now, today, you can expect this to change over time with AI, but AAA games right now are ridiculously expensive. And so they tried doing live service games where it's like, all right, cool. Hey, we'll give it to you for free.

• 1:15:06Tom Bilyeu?

  We're just gonna let you buy things that you want. And people hate that. They consider it so predatory that they're up in arms. So everyone's like, okay, well, after multiple failures trying to pursue another live service thing, we, the AAA game developers are going to acknowledge, we don't understand how to make a live service game work in this uh, cultural climate. So, okay, cool. We're not going to do that, but we also know that people don't want a hundred dollar games. And we know that they don't want us doing microtransactions. So what the fuck are you leaving us? So we want to give you guys these really expensive games, but we've got to do, we've got to have some way to continue. Get ready for the phrase everybody hates. We've got to have a way to build shareholder value because this is exactly how we continue to scale this company.

• 1:15:49Tom Bilyeu?

  And it doesn't do us any good to own all these game studios if they are not adding to our shareholder value. Because that's what drives the price of these things, which makes our company more valuable, which gives us the ability to gain and retain employees, which gives us the ability to uh, get money into the company. And so, sorry, guys, there's gotta be some way for us to do this. And it is, it is just a, look at Minecraft. It's the highest selling game of all time, but it doesn't do like revenue numbers like Fortnite. Because Fortnite really in many ways gave us the beast that is live service. Because they really found a way to get kids excited about that next drop, the change in the game. They can just keep developing, keep developing, keep developing,

• 1:16:34Tom Bilyeu?

  keep the game relevant for year on year on year by doing things that necessitate that a single player can give them more money. Otherwise, they have to do Fortnite one, Fortnite two, Fortnite three. But the, the thing that I always find amusing is people want these games developed forever, but they don't want to have to keep paying for them. And so they'll celebrate a game like um, No Man's Sky, which gangster, gangster. Hello Games, I believe, is the company behind No Man's Sky. Shout out to you guys. Unbelievable. A 10 year run of free updates. Absolutely incredible. But that becomes a very hard to maintain thing because if you get into a stretch where people aren't

• 1:17:14Tom Bilyeu?

  like the game isn't spreading to any more people, and now you've got this expectation that people have that you're going to keep developing, keep developing, then that can sort of die on the vine. And so uh, this is why you have only a handful of strategies that you can use. One is that you produce a game that you, you know, maybe one, once a year, every couple of years, you just recharge for it. Or you do a live service, or you do DLCs, but there, there's not infinite number of ways to do this because employees insist on getting paid. And as long as employees insist on getting paid, companies have, especially if it's an online game, they have insane ongoing costs. And so they've, they've gotta get money for that. So uh, anyway, again, there's a small handful of ways to do this.

• 1:17:59Tom Bilyeu?

  I'm going to market against people doing the one that people are going to absolutely fucking despise. But for somebody that can't afford a game, it's like, if you get a game for free, but you've got to watch some commercials, but you get it for free, it's not a terrible trade. Culturally, people may hate it, but if you don't have 80 bucks and it's the difference between either you show me some ads after the boss fighter in between rounds, or I don't get to play.

• 1:18:23Speaker 02

  Diabolical, man. I can't, I still can't get it. If, it, it is terrible, though. There was just a study that said there's more toy sales in adults than there are for kids. And I think that this is

• 1:18:33Tom Bilyeu?

  Bro, that's wild.

• 1:18:34Speaker 02

  This is the continuation of that. Like, we are not, we're, we're trying to hold on to our childhood at the cost of other people's childhood.

• 1:18:43Tom Bilyeu?

  Uh, I disagree with that take. I think that it, let, let me make my case and then slide me down if you think that I'm crazy. So I think it goes like this. Uh, I went to D23, which is um, Disney's like Comic Con. So it's all their big announcements and all that stuff. And I was there on a weekday, but it was, it was a holiday. So um, you wouldn't expect that to have stopped kids from being there. And I'm going to say less than 5% were kids. Like, it was shocking. I was beside myself with shock. I had no clue that it was, I knew like the Disney adult thing was a thing, but I had no idea it was that much of a thing. Uh, so that for sure, there is this element of whatever you're nostalgic for as a kid, like it implants something in your brain and the way the human mind works.

• 1:19:28Tom Bilyeu?

  You have a huge emotional response to that thing, even as you get older. And so there are for sure properties that I'm still really emotionally resonant with, even though they're like kids programming. So I get that. That's a human thing. You're gonna see that. But kids now are raised on totally different IP that nobody knows how to aggregate. So there are going to be kids, for instance, that skibidi toilet was just like the thing. That was like the big thing when they were 12. They loved it, thought it was awesome. It's super niche. And anybody that makes T-shirts as a reference to that will make them feel like they're in on something. And so they're going to be uh, doing that. But we're raising kids now algorithmically, not IP. So it's a very different thing. It isn't just like, oh, our generation is stopping kids from having uh, their childhood.

• 1:20:12Tom Bilyeu?

  It's just that when you engage with short form, it's a totally different dopamine loop. It's a totally different relationship to the IP. And the IP is so fragmented and scattered. It's not like Disney where you've got a hundred years of like, you know, what do they have, 50 IP? Kids today will have 50 IP in a year. So it, it's just the magnitude is so different. And so their relationship to things will be very different.

• 1:20:39Speaker 02

  But that's not sustainable if I'm D23.

• 1:20:41Tom Bilyeu?

  It's not. Those companies are just going to cease to exist.

• 1:20:43Speaker 02

  Yeah, they're just gonna die.

• 1:20:44Tom Bilyeu?

  It won't be like that. So my, my first, um, it won't be like it is today in the future. My first realization about AI is this is going to disaggregate capital in a way that people do not understand. We have, my generation had a shared experience growing up. Like you might've been like the radical freak who was into The Cure, but I knew who The Cure was and I liked some of their songs. I didn't have any of their albums, but you weren't like an alien to me that was listening to something I'd never heard of. That was nigh impossible. Not impossible, but nigh impossible. Now it's like,

• 1:21:18Tom Bilyeu?

  dude, the, the number of YouTubers I can find that have eight million subscribers on a topic I didn't even know existed is like, whoa. So that is a fragmentation that we're not used to. Cause it used to be like, what the uh, finale of MASH had like 130 million viewers or something. It might've been 70 million, but it was a lot.

• 1:21:40Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:21:41Tom Bilyeu?

  You're not going to get that now. So it, it's just, everything is fragmented. That will make it very hard for companies to grow large. And so what you'll see is just a sea of much smaller companies. And so while my fantasy would be that Kaizen basically becomes a juggernaut like Minecraft, the more likely scenario is I peel off a small fraction of the player base who's like, oh yeah, I get it. DNA of Minecraft, but a totally different experience. And I prefer it. But it's not going to be that like core thing because that was our generation's core thing. It's not this generation's core thing.

• 1:22:19Speaker 02

  MASH had 106 million, to answer your question. And then also I looked up Minecraft revenue because I was curious. Off the game alone, they make 350 million a year off the franchise, like including microtransaction stuff, a billion.

• 1:22:32Tom Bilyeu?

  Damn.

• 1:22:32Speaker 02

  Which is crazy for like a 14 year old game.

• 1:22:35Tom Bilyeu?

  That's wild. Now, bad news perhaps is that uh,

• 1:22:41Tom Bilyeu?

  Fortnite does like three to five billion?

• 1:22:44Speaker 02

  They do, so they don't disclose. I pulled that up to four to six billion and then Roblox, which is their main competitor, four point eight nine, which was disclosed. So those three are still the titans of the gaming industry.

• 1:22:55Tom Bilyeu?

  But like, the difference between one and four is a lot, like a lot a lot.

• 1:23:03Speaker 02

  Yeah.

• 1:23:03Tom Bilyeu?

  So, uh, micro, microtransactions, which people hate, especially when it's aimed at kids, uh, is the juggernaut, much to my dismay. And by the way, uh, Minecraft still lets in, like, they have a, a leaky bucket over here on the side that does still sell things that could be construed as gambling to kids. So, like, if you were gonna shave that off as well, Minecraft's billion probably drops, uh, noticeably.

• 1:23:30Speaker 02

  Yeah, significantly. And Notch, the famous creator of Minecraft, is starting to get into vibe coding. So I think this might be the turn of the, the tide right here. I would admit, I am enjoying vibe coding. I may have been a teeny, tiny bit wrong. There is gonna be this inflection point where a lot of people say, okay, maybe I was wrong about AI, massively embrace it. And then this future that you just laid out kinda happens with the proliferation of these little companies and niche community projects, whether it's games, whether it's videos, whether it's YouTube creators, whatever it may be.

• 1:24:00Tom Bilyeu?

  There are two futures before us. Future number one, artificial superintelligence happens and it's sinister and it wipes us all out. Or the vast majority of humanity embraces AI. That's it. There, there will be smaller groups that are like what I call the, um, new Amish, but they'll be small. And if you're thinking in a 10-year time horizon, I get why you think it's gonna be way more fragmented than that, that there are gonna be tons of people that opt out. Now imagine 50 years in the future. You've raised multiple generations that from day one, AI is just a part of their life. They expect to have a conversation with the coffee pot and tell it, hey, make my favorite coffee,

• 1:24:45Tom Bilyeu?

  do it exactly like you did it yesterday. Uh, that's it. They expect the coffee pot to warn them when they walk by, hey, don't forget to order more. Or they expect the coffee pot just to order more of the little pods that you put in. So they will not be weird about AI. So just like, as a parent, let me tell you, the first time I logged into Fortnite, I thought that the game was broken. I thought something was wrong, because there was so much music playing on top of each other. I was like, there's no way it's designed to be like this. It's not possible. Like, I've done something wrong. I've logged in in a weird way. Uh, no, it's really designed like that and kids just grow up with it. So same with algorithms. Uh, if you grew up with reels, your whole approach to life is going to be different than if you grew up the way that I grew up, where it was like,

• 1:25:28Tom Bilyeu?

  you had to wait for a show to come on. And if you didn't watch it live while it was there, you just didn't see it. Uh, that was it. And getting caught in bad traffic meant that you were never gonna see a thing, uh, that you really wanted to see that day because your parents took you on some stupid trip and you weren't back in time to see the thing. So it, that's very, very different. But it's not like kids today are gonna go backwards. So we embrace technology. It's a one-way street. Uh, and any one generation will squabble over it. But over time, it's, it's just a guaranteed, we're going in that direction. Period, full stop. So people are gonna embrace AI. It is very interesting to see people like Notch, uh, coders who are very against it, because what they thought was, uh, one,

• 1:26:12Tom Bilyeu?

  it's just gonna be slop. It's not gonna be very good. And in the beginning, when they probably formed their opinion, it probably was slop and it wasn't good. And they saw people getting brain rot, because they were just outsourcing all their thinking to something that gave them trash as an output. And they were just like, okay, fine, I'll accept this, because they didn't wanna do the hard work to make it good. Now what they're realizing is, oh, hold on a second. If I maintain my sovereignty and I'm not giving it the ability to think for me, I'm using it as a tool to create something that nobody else is gonna be able to create, because they don't have my mind. And so just like a chainsaw in my hands is not gonna give you some incredible carving, the way that a chainsaw in the hands of a practiced and skilled, uh, artist could give you. They're two totally different things.

• 1:26:54Tom Bilyeu?

  Same tool, but the outcome is wildly different. That's where AI is now. So I expect a lot of programmers to go, holy shit, this allows me to be way more bold in what I try to do. I still have to be good at that thing. I still have to know how to approach this. But I can now pull off things that I couldn't have pulled off. And I don't have to build a team, so this is far less expensive. I really want people to have that experience, because it is thrilling. Now, when somebody has that experience, if they go, boy, do I really hope that AI stays here? I get it. That, it's a very comforting thing to be like, okay, cool. It's in a stage now where I'm necessary, that you could give somebody the same AI and they will not get the same results that I get, because I've trained

• 1:27:35Tom Bilyeu?

  myself, I've pushed it more, uh, I have unique insights, unique desires, all that stuff. You can give somebody all the AI in the world, they will not be able to build Kaizen, because Kaizen is literally thousands of decisions that I have made, based on what I find interesting, based on player feedback I've gotten, et cetera, et cetera. And so that's gonna be a one-of-one game. Now, once it comes out, somebody can replicate it much faster, that is for sure. But I at least have my window where I can make something that is truly unique. Now, superintelligence is a very different thing, but I'll set that aside for now.

• 1:28:07Speaker 02

  Yeah. We'll keep, uh, monitoring it. Um, in other news, live streamer Clavicular has reportedly been charged with rape, drugging a person for sex, and providing alcohol to a minor in Massachusetts.

• 1:28:20Tom Bilyeu?

  And not supposedly. He's been charged. Like, nobody is denying this. So if you guys don't know, uh, who Clavicular is, his real name is Braden Peters. Uh, he is a streamer. He's very large. There's been some huge internet debate about whether he's a top five streamer or not. I'm not even gonna get into that. But he is certainly a very large streamer who's become somewhat infamous in, um, the right-leaning circles, the sort of new face of, um, bro culture, if you will. And so already a very controversial figure, not somebody that everybody shines on. Uh, but the allegations against him are very serious. Now, what ends up, um, blowing this up to something bigger is that people are

• 1:29:01Tom Bilyeu?

  debating the merits of the case. But just to lay out exactly what's going on, uh, his name's Braden Peters, he's been charged in Massachusetts with rape, drugging a person for sexual intercourse, and by the way, the drug is alcohol, that may make you feel differently or not, um, and procuring alcohol for somebody under 21. The complaint was filed September 8th in Orleans District Court on Cape Cod. It was issued by summons rather than an arrest warrant, and he's due for arraignment on October 14th. Now, the charges actually go back to May 23rd of 2025. According to Chatham, uh, and their police report, there was a 17-year-old girl, and it's gonna become relevant, but 16 is the age of consent in Massachusetts.

• 1:29:44Tom Bilyeu?

  This is why this is not a statutory rape claim. This is something different. But you've got a 17-year-old girl that he'd met on Instagram. Uh, she told investigators that Peters arranged an Uber to bring her to his family home, that his mother and grandmother were both in the house. She says the two went to his bedroom and livestreamed on Twitch while drinking vodka, and she felt pressured to drink. She told police that he had sex with her that night while she was too intoxicated to consent. And then again, the next morning, now, whether it was consensual in the morning, or she sort of woke up to him, uh, already in motion, that's unclear at this time, so that'll have to come out. Now, the accuser's

• 1:30:25Tom Bilyeu?

  name has been redacted in the criminal case, but a source told CNN, uh, that her name is Alexandra Mendoza, which now is just going everywhere, by the way. So I'm certainly not breaking news or saying something that wasn't very publicly known at this point online. Um, she's an influencer, and this is where people start to get debate-y, if you will, because she had already sued Peters in civil court in Florida in April. And that suit, uh, alleges sexual battery from that same night, but it didn't come out, the, those allegations weren't made until later. So it separately claims that during a Miami livestream back in November, that he had injected her with some like fat dissolving

• 1:31:10Tom Bilyeu?

  substance, I think it's called Aqua Licks. I'd never heard of it. Um, that isn't FDA approved. She went to the police in June of 2026. Now, Peter denies the allegation certainly as put forward. On X, he said that she's after his money, uh, and that he also posted a video of her saying that he was super nice, uh, plus a letter he says that she wrote thanking him for his help. And they had livestreamed after the incident happened and she had said nice things publicly after that had happened. And so this is where all of the debate is raging. So she tries to sue him, that doesn't go through. Then she goes and makes the criminal complaint. So that's where people are saying that, hey,

• 1:31:55Tom Bilyeu?

  this is somebody that may have impure motives here. So all of this, man, this is where everybody needs to be real careful, thinking that they know what happened. Um, just because she said nice things afterwards, doesn't mean that something illegal didn't transpire before. So this is one where all of the facts in the case need to come out. Um, they found probable cause to pursue him, so keep that in mind. This is a criminal investigation. Uh, but just because they found probable cause does not mean that he is guilty. Uh, so there's a lot of facts that are gonna have to come out. We'll see if this goes all the way to trial or not. The police have tried to contact Peters, by the way. Uh, they were not able to reach him, but he has not been quiet. He's been popping off online

• 1:32:40Tom Bilyeu?

  about this. Um, so we will certainly see. But obviously, it's a very serious crime. The consequences are very serious, up to, uh, life in prison. So we'll see what actually comes of this. But boy, oh, boy, uh, am, am I missing the days where women were told to be very careful, uh, and certainly men, goddamn, man. Uh, one, if this is somebody coming after him for something that he did wrong, straight to jail. That shit, just zero tolerance policy. Uh, if this is somebody coming after him because he supposedly cost her an advertiser by saying something bad about her, uh, and she feels shunned and is now trying to hurt him for that.

• 1:33:26Tom Bilyeu?

  You gotta be careful, man. You got to be careful. Yeah, God, this is such a crazy age for guys to be doing so much of this shit on camera.

• 1:33:34Speaker 02

  It's interesting, too, because there is that level of, um, uh, what's the thing that Lisa's channel covers?

• 1:33:42Tom Bilyeu?

  When you coercion?

• 1:33:43Speaker 02

  Cohortage, yes. It's one of those things where she's on camera. It's during a stream. She consented to the stream. She came on the stream after that. So if he's this bad person monster, why would he do that? But then now with this additional nuance of cases recently with coercion.

• 1:33:59Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah, it's called coercive control. So, okay, well, now, uh, setting, she's 17, so for at the time of the incident. So for me, that's a totally different bucket. Somebody's underage. That's just a night and day thing. So, uh, for me, if he's doing any sort of manipulative tactics that are illegal, a thousand percent that that is zero tolerance. Uh, lock him up, whatever the penalty is for whatever he gets convicted of, a thousand percent. Give it to him all day long. Uh, coercive control on an adult, I feel very differently about than my wife. So this is one where we've got to make a decision. Is somebody an adult at 18 or not? If they are an adult, then they are responsible for their own decisions.

• 1:34:43Tom Bilyeu?

  And I do not buy into coercive control at all. Unless that person legitimately, like, if they've kidnapped your kid or some shit like that, yes, obviously. Something like that, I do not count coercive control if, like, uh, let's say that they have your livelihood in their hands. Okay, at that point, should they be able to get you to have sex with them? No, hard pass. No way. Like, I get it, that's hardship, and a thousand percent, there are laws to protect against that already. Take them to fucking task on that all day. Get yours, man. That's illegal, and it should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. But I do not want to live in a world where we go, oh, man, like, they're not responsible for their actions. They got put in a really difficult situation.

• 1:35:27Tom Bilyeu?

  That's fucking crazy. In fact, we have to play, did I pull the Sonny Houston thing? If I didn't, fucking find it, because this is the most outrageous shit I've ever heard in my life. A guy kills, boils, and supposedly he himself eats some, but also gives some to feed the homeless. You've got to hear this shit yourself. This is people arguing that that person's not responsible for their actions. Fuck you in all capital letters. So we, we have got to fucking decide. At what point is a person an adult and they are responsible for themselves? If it's not 18, cool, I'm open to the debate. But we got to pick a fucking number and say, at this point, that person is responsible for themselves. And at that point, if you have sex with somebody and then later have buyer's remorse, hard pass, that is not rape. You should a thousand percent, no matter what the situation,

• 1:36:11Tom Bilyeu?

  if you're an adult and they do not have a gun to your head or anything like that, there's not already some law on the books,

• 1:36:18Tom Bilyeu?

  just say no. Like, what the fuck? This is crazy. We, we will, as a society, derange so hard if we say that adults are not responsible for their actions. That is wild. And by the way, if we're going to make this about, um, men over women, Jesus Christ, I'm back to, this is the same argument. Are you really saying that an adult woman is not capable of thinking for herself and pushing back? Like, that's crazy, man, because, dude, that, that is so disempowering for women. I cannot believe that women are like, yeah, exactly. I, I can't, I can get psychologically overpowered. That is so wild. That's wild.

• 1:36:56Speaker 02

  Here's a sunny day.

• 1:36:57Tom Bilyeu?

  All right.

• 1:36:57Speaker 07

  The insanity defense has been around in Massachusetts for 182 years, so I think it's well established. And I thought absolutely that she was not criminally responsible uh, by reason of insanity. And the reason I felt that, I, I feel so strongly about this holdout juror is because I was a holdout juror in a case, in the Daniel Rakowitz case, I don't know if people remember it, the Butcher of Tompkins Square Park. It was in 1990. The guy who ate the victims? Yes.

• 1:37:24Speaker 08

  You were on that jury? You're gonna need to explain more.

• 1:37:27Speaker 07

  Yes, I was.

• 1:37:27Speaker 08

  Were you a lawyer already?

• 1:37:29Speaker 07

  It was before I went to law school. Oh, because I would have never put you on this. And I, when I brought it up in the, when I brought it up at the Hot Topics meeting, I don't think everyone believed me, and then my producer looked it up, and I'm in the New York Times. And apparently, several jurors questioned afterwards, said one holdout juror was principally responsible. A soncian. Preventing them from returning a guilty verdict. That was me. And it was because I saw clearly that he was psychotic. Of course. He was in a psychosis. He did not mean to kill her, and once he killed her, he panicked. He, he chopped up her body parts. Yes, boiled her body parts, tried to commit the perfect crime, and then fed her.

• 1:38:10Tom Bilyeu?

  Hold on, hold, hold, pause, pause, pause, pause. He tried to commit the perfect crime. That is not somebody who's like in the grips of psychosis. They can think through, okay, what do I need to do? I gotta get rid of the body. Okay, I'm gonna chop this up, which would take so much time and energy. And then, through all of that, I still think this is a dope idea. And then, by the way, feeds them, that body, to homeless people after apparently eating some himself. That is so, like, insane to me, that somebody would go, no, no, no, they're not, they're not criminally responsible.

• 1:38:41Speaker 02

  It's what she said that was like, he had remorse, so then he tried to commit the perfect crime. So there is this line between what is psychosis and what is remorse. And just because you feel bad about something doesn't mean you're no longer guilty of it or you're not criminally responsible for it.

• 1:38:55Tom Bilyeu?

  Correct.

• 1:38:56Speaker 02

  That's a weird line.

• 1:38:57Tom Bilyeu?

  What on earth are we talking about? This, this is so strange to me. So the debate on clavicular needs to be separated from the broader idea of coercive control of adults, adults, adults. Because on kids, yes, that's why they're not adults, man. You can, like, fuck with their psychology, you can, like, trick them, all kinds of bad things because they just do not understand the world, their brain isn't developed enough. Like, that one, a thousand percent. But when you get to adults, man, like, at what point? I don't want anyone to look at my decisions and be like, somebody tricked him. Are you joking? I don't, what? It's like, I do the things in my life because I think that they're the right choices. And if I do something illegal, then I should go to jail for that.

• 1:39:42Tom Bilyeu?

  Like, that is crazy, that people want to abdicate that responsibility and be like, well, that person coercively controlled me. That's so nuts. I don't understand the impulse, man. That, that is saying, I'm not capable of thinking for myself. And if you're not capable of thinking for yourself, then should you be allowed to vote? Like, you're saying that I can be manipulated easily. It's like, that, that one is wild to me. I do not understand this.

• 1:40:07Speaker 02

  It's wild. Uh, all right, then we gotta jump over to Canada, where state-administered death is now more common in Canada than gun homicides in the US. Which is like wild stat, I did not know was that. I feel like they just approved it, too. Let's not have something that's been happening for like years and years and years.

• 1:40:23Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah.

• 1:40:24Speaker 02

  It's just crazy.

• 1:40:24Tom Bilyeu?

  It's trending in the wrong direction. All right, something is seriously wrong in Canada, seriously wrong. Despite having a fraction of our population, more people are euthanized there than are killed by gun homicides here in the US. And worse, if you put it on a per capita basis, the numbers are even crazier. The MAID, as it's known, M-A-I-D, medical assistance in dying, the MAID kill rate is roughly nine times the US gun homicide rate in the US, and about three times the total US gun death rate. Even when you include suicides. Something is very, very wrong with the culture

• 1:41:08Tom Bilyeu?

  that supposedly has universal healthcare, but seems to be cutting costs by reminding, already scared, by the way, or suffering people, that they can just nope out of life altogether. MAID now accounts for 5.1% of all deaths in Canada, all deaths. That's 1 in 20. When it was legalized in 2016, it was sold as like, okay, this is gonna be like a really narrow option for a select group of people who are already terminally ill, and we just want to help them die with dignity. But in 2021, Ottawa dropped a requirement that death be reasonably foreseeable. So these are people that are just like having a bad time of it right now.

• 1:41:50Tom Bilyeu?

  Those cases are currently still just a small slice at about 4% of the total. But they are rapidly moving in the wrong direction, having grown by 17% in 2024 alone. There was a recent case that's making the headlines literally right now, where a woman diagnosed with cancer ends up receiving a brochure from the government on assisted suicide before she had even seen an oncologist. Let's look at that.

• 1:42:18Speaker 08

  Um, you have something that many Canadian patients, of course, do not have, most overwhelmingly. You have American citizenship in the ability to come here to the United States. Now, for people who don't know what MAID is, it's medical, medically assist, medical assistance in dying, is that what it stands for?

• 1:42:40Speaker 09

  Yes, that is the, the correct term for their euthanasia program.

• 1:42:43Speaker 08

  So, so you started getting literature, or getting literature about that because your prognosis was supposedly so grim?

• 1:42:51Speaker 09

  I, I hadn't even seen an oncologist yet before I got that pamphlet. To be honest, it took nine months to even get to a place where I was diagnosed. And then I was told in the emergency room, hey, it looks like you have metastatic cancer. At that point, it was stage 4A. And as I'm waiting for even the first call from the oncology team, uh, I, I get this pamphlet in the mail, basically, telling me that I can go and kill myself, and

• 1:43:19Speaker 09

  yeah, that was, that was very disturbing. At that point, you realize what a dystopian situation it is, because nobody's gonna tell you how long you're gonna be waiting for treatment. Nobody could tell me. They told me, actually, that I was fast-tracked, uh, which was ridiculous, because then my referral for treatment was lost.

• 1:43:36Tom Bilyeu?

  Dude, that is wild. So, uh, the even worse news is that Canada plans to get even more aggressive starting March 17th of next year. People whose only condition is mental illness become eligible for state-assisted suicide.

• 1:43:56Tom Bilyeu?

  I mean, listen, I, look, it's a way to reduce wait times for national healthcare. Is it the way that I would suggest? Definitely not. This is one of those things when I think about the socialism debate that we've got to be honest about. The reality is that there are trade offs. So I've seen other interviews with that same woman and she said, look, yes, it is possible that you come to America and you can be under the weight of medical debt and end up going bankrupt because of your medical debt. But she's like, at least you're alive. In Canada, like she said, she had to wait nine months. You can imagine how the cancer is growing in that time period. And then also she was like, no one in Canada has given me a path to living. They basically left me to die and were not offering any treatments.

• 1:44:42Tom Bilyeu?

  I come to America and now they're offering me treatments and she's up doing hikes and things. Now, she may still die in the US and she's very open and honest about that. But the fact that she at least has a shot, that the system is trying to do something for her, that we have more innovative techniques, that we're able to see patients way faster. For all of the complaints that people rightly have about the way that our system is set up, racing to match Canada or Europe and not look at what the actual trade offs are is stupid. There is a reason that America has done the, the initial setup of the country. Cause we've got plenty of ways that this is slowly metastasizing in the wrong direction. But the way that things were set up to maximize freedom, to maximize choice, to give people options,

• 1:45:27Tom Bilyeu?

  to allow companies to innovate, to use free markets as a way to ensure that the product gets better than it will if it's under governmental control. There's a reason that that was chosen. It wasn't, which I know is the popular narrative now. It wasn't chosen just so that people get, could get wealthy. It was trying to bank on one very simple idea, which is that to win in the marketplace and get wealthy, if that's what you want to do, is to offer a superior product. So even Steve Keen talks about this, who's not a big fan of capitalism. But he says, one of the things that people misunderstand about capitalism is that the reason that it works is you can compete on multiple dimensions. You're not just trying to make something cheaper. You're trying to make something differentiated.

• 1:46:12Tom Bilyeu?

  You're trying to compete on the value proposition of the item. This is literally how I got wealthy. We did not make a protein bar that was cheaper. We made a protein bar that was better. It was actually more expensive, but it was better. And so we competed on the innovation that we had created. And so by creating this opportunity where I could try something, my partners and I certainly did not do this by myself, where we could go and create something that was different, that was better. Leave us to take all the risk, do all the crazy ass innovation that we had to do from product design, manufacturing design, doing something radically different with marketing approach, all of it. Let us take the risk of none of that working and us spending our own money.

• 1:46:55Tom Bilyeu?

  But if it works, that then we can reap the rewards of getting wealthy off of building something that has massive equity and value in the company. And so people got a thing that they wanted, which is exactly why they bought it. The same is true for healthcare. And if I heard people talking about healthcare from the place of, listen, we're creating a system that is not serving people as well as it could be. And we've got to rectify the things about it that are broken, which is basically the government guaranteeing that people are going to get paid. So that you're going to get all kinds of abuses in the system. So I think Mark Cuban has the closest thing there of actually going in and identifying where the system is broken

• 1:47:35Tom Bilyeu?

  and addressing the actual parts of the system that are broken, rather than saying what we need to do is ape systems that are, nobody goes broke, but you're losing way more people than you need. You're dragging the system on way more than you could. You're drawing immigrants into the system that aren't contributing because they can get something for free. All of those things end up breaking those systems in ways that I don't think people are being realistic here in the US. We need to address the problems with our system, but it isn't what people are asking us to ape. And then the whole idea of making assisted suicide widely available. To be honest, I'm all for it. I think people should be able to commit suicide if that's what they want.

• 1:48:18Tom Bilyeu?

  I don't think there should be, uh, nobody should get to tell somebody what they do with their own body. In my opinion, uh, when it comes to that. So if somebody wants to nope out, by all means, but you've got to look at, how are you presenting it? How is it being incentivized? And now are we creating a bigger problem for ourselves? I don't need, I don't think that we need to facilitate it. And so by facilitating it, you make it worse. Just don't make it criminal would be my take on the situation. What do you mean by facilitate? Like don't offer it, don't give the pamphlet out? If the person hasn't even gone to see a oncologist yet, and you have something in the system that auto triggers a pamphlet about suicide because they've been diagnosed with cancer, that's wild shit.

• 1:49:00Tom Bilyeu?

  If you're trying to broaden the number of people that qualify for it so that it's down to just, oh, you've had a bad day. Like that's insane to me, especially if the results that you're getting are people take you up on it. So yeah, I don't, I don't get it. Yeah. Wild work. Well, that was awesome. Thank you guys so much today. Another shout out to Tailor Brands. If you guys are at all thinking about becoming wealthy yourselves and starting your company, which I highly encourage, uh, make sure you check out Tailor Brands. They make launching a company so much easier than it has ever been to the point where I'm jealous. Where were these guys when I was starting my companies previously? But they allow you to get your LLC set up, take care of so many of like the boring,

• 1:49:43Tom Bilyeu?

  sort of painfully difficult things you have to do at the beginning to make your company a legal entity. They make all of that pain go away. If you're at all thinking about starting a business, do it the easy way. Work with Tailor Brands. They've got a link in our description. Just click that, go to Tailor Brands today, get set up. And then if, once you're set up with Tailor Brands, if you actually want to know how to leverage AI in your company, I'm doing another free AI masterclass Thursday, October 8th at 1:00 PM Pacific. The link is also in the description. Make sure you sign up today and I will see you guys there. There have been so many advancements in AI, you're not going to want to miss this one. All right, everybody, we will see you on Friday. And until next time, my friends, be legendary. Take care, peace. Let's talk about a pattern that is guaranteed to be killing your progress.

• 1:50:28Tom Bilyeu?

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