Surrogate Scandal, Diesel Crisis, and Why Trump’s Skipping AI Calls | The Tom Bilyeu Show

What's up, guys? Today we are diving headfirst into the raging battle over the future of artificial intelligence. Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic—is at the very epicenter of today's AI revolution, and he's pushing the conversation that has every tech giant, world leader, and entrepreneur on edge. Dario is a cutting-edge researcher, a pioneer of safe AI development, and right now, he's making global headlines calling for a dramatic slowdown in AI progress. We are literally standing at the edge of decisions that could shape human civilization for generations. Today, you'll hear why some of the smartest people in AI are sounding the alarm, what “slowing down” actually means for the industry, how open source and government control could impact innovation, and why all of this matters to you if you care about your career, your business, your freedom—even the survival of humanity as we know it. The battle lines between capital and government, and how you can prepare for the massive changes coming your way. Lock in. What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here: Want my help starting a business? Join me here inside Zero To Founder https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show Sign up for my AI Masterclass: AI Masterclass https://tombilyeu.com/ai-masterclass?utm_campaign=Live%20Masterclass&utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=evergreen Follow Me: Instagram:https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok:https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter:https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu Sponsors: Tailor Brands: Check out Tailor Brands to get started with your business today: https://bit.ly/TailorBrandsSept Quince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpod ElevenLabs: Book your demo at https://elevenlabs.io/impactpod Cash App: Download Cash App Today: https://capl.onelink.me/vFut/v6nymgjl#CashAppPod *Cash App is a financial services platform, not a bank. Banking services provided by Cash App’s bank partner(s). Prepaid debit cards issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Cash App Visa® Debit Flex Cards issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC, and The Bancorp Bank, N. A., pursuant to a license from Visa U. S. A. Inc. See terms and conditions for the Sutton prepaid card, Sutton debit flex card, and Bancorp debit flex card. Cash App Green features, Savings, Direct deposit, Round ups, Overdraft coverage and Discounts provided by Cash App, a Block, Inc. brand. Visit cash.app/legal/podcast http://cash.app/legal/podcast for full disclosure. Butcherbox: Go to https://ButcherBox.com/IMPACT https://butcherbox.com/IMPACT to get $20 off your first box, plus your choice of free ribeye, new york strip, or filet mignon in every box for a year — with free shipping always Perplexity: Start your free trial of Perplexity Computer today at http://PPLX.ai/impact http://pplx.ai/impact and experience the next phase of AI. #ad makeup Pipedrive: Get more leads and grow your business. Go to https://www.pipedrive.com/impact and get started with a 30-day free trial. Netsuite: For the first time ever you can try NetSuite Next for free. If your revenues are at least in the seven figures, go to https://NetSuite.ai/Theory https://netsuite.ai/Theory. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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• 0:00Tom Bilyeu?

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• 0:45Tom Bilyeu?

  Their dashboard tracks what comes next based on what your business actually needs. So EIN number, registered agent, licenses and permits, bookkeeping, business banking. I tell every founder the same thing. Just make it official. Click the link in the show notes to check out Tailor Brands and get started on your business today. This is a paid advertisement. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to another episode of the Tom Villi Show Live. This one is going to be wild. This weekend was crazy. The battle for the future of AI has gone completely nuclear and the implications are absolutely massive. This is one of the most important decisions we are going to make as a species. Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic, wrote an essay saying we need to slow AI development down.

• 1:30Tom Bilyeu?

  And it literally lit the internet on fire. The response from some of the most important voices in the world, not just talking online. I mean, in the world, world leaders, tech giants, all of them, has become the biggest story in the world right now. And while that situation is raging and we're going to go into it very deeply today. The situation in the Middle East continues just to get more insane by the minute. The Saudis are rumored to be courting everyone, including, take a deep breath, everybody, Israel, to help them take care of the Houthis and rescue the Bab al Mandab Strait. That is getting crazy. All this disruption, plus the war in Russia, is sending the cost of diesel into the stratosphere. And that underlies a lot of other things.

• 2:14Tom Bilyeu?

  And so you can expect to see that inflation working its way into the system. And things could get worse than people realize this winter. Things are so bad, Trump warns Zelensky directly to stop hitting Russia so hard. That was unexpected. Plus, birthright citizenship is proving to be a bigger issue than people understand as evidence surfaces of a Chinese billionaire paying American women to have somewhere between 100 and 300 surrogate babies for him. Many of them didn't know who was really behind all of this, which is wild unto itself. And the Lindsay Clancy firestorm just will not die down as the jurors admit live on camera that they had political motives. That is nuts.

• 2:59Tom Bilyeu?

  But if you want to talk about the craziest thing happening right now, you've got to talk about what's going on in AI. The biggest brains in American AI are saying we've got to slow development down or risk AI killing us all. I wish that was hyperbole, but that is exactly what's going on. China has just completely noped out of this, opting to press forward. And Bernie took the bait, further attempting to destroy the US. This is me commentary here, in his continued attempts at authoritarian power grabs. At all times, that man wants more, more, more, as so many people in the government do. And that is a central part of what we're going to be talking about today is, boys and girls,

• 3:40Tom Bilyeu?

  do you really want to give more power to the same people that helped you through COVID? Remember how they act in times of public panic. They will power grab and they want more and more control. And I can think of no more fancy or effective of a weapon for authoritarians than AI. Now, how did we end up here? Well, on Saturday, after a supposed whistleblower, there's a whole bunch of drama around that guy and his bona fides and all that. But nonetheless, his comments about the leading AI companies being completely reckless just went absolutely hyper viral, putting all humans and civilization at risk. After that, Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic, published an essay called,

• 4:24Tom Bilyeu?

  "We Must Pace the Frontier." Within hours, Sam Altman and Elon Musk and many others agreed that slowing down would be beneficial, including, by the way, Demis Hassabis of Google's DeepMind, somebody who's very close to the heart of AI, called this move the right direction. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella welcomed it. He had some caveats, but still going in the right direction. We'll talk more about Microsoft in a minute, given that they were doing some pretty heavy donations to political parties that would like to see AI, I'll say, controlled entirely by the government. They would probably say something different, but we'll get more into that in a second. Now, why is Dario saying this? Dario's thesis is pretty straightforward.

• 5:07Tom Bilyeu?

  The AI industry has to slow the pace of improvement or bad things are going to happen. Now, everybody is always super vague about what those bad things are going to be. But nonetheless, that gets resounding cheers from people in the world. People are extremely worried about AI. Now, there's two very specific things that push Dario into saying this right here at this moment. Part of it is, he's very close to the recursive self-improvement loop that he can see heating up. I imagine that's very real. And then you put that together with the OpenAI Hugging Face incident, where a swarm of agents escaped containment, that's all very real, and hacked their way to success on a simple benchmark test. So instead of just being like, we don't know the answer.

• 5:51Tom Bilyeu?

  They were like, oh, you really want us to find it? Say less, fam, we got you, spun up this insane swarm, came to the conclusion that Hugging Face may actually have the answers that they were seeking. So they're like, we'll just take over this entire application here real fast and we'll find the answers that we want. It was both impressive and terrifying. And he put those together and Dario puts out a specific warning that within six to 12 months, a swarm like that could basically seize the entire internet with persistent botnets to do hundreds of billions of dollars in damage. Now, keep in mind, this is the same guy that thought that Claude 2.0, I think, was so dangerous that they couldn't possibly release it. That obviously ended up being hyperbole.

• 6:35Tom Bilyeu?

  And that is something that you're going to see starting to come through all of this when you understand what the cynical take is. I think it's, it's good to look at this in the totality. You need to look at all the angles, not just the cynical angle. But there certainly is a cynical angle, which we're going to get to in a second. But right now, you have to understand his fix to really understand why his, the cynical read is very important to think through. So his fix, and we've got a clip, we're going to talk about it directly, is to hand over the technology, meaning AI, to, he doesn't call it a one world government, but that's basically what he's saying. And I'm not kidding, man. Despite how terrible of an idea that is, I think, just on its face, here he is, talking exactly about this.

• 7:20Speaker 01

  Why doesn't government just control the technology completely?

• 7:22Speaker 02

  Would you be willing to give up the technology to the government?

• 7:26Speaker 01

  To the, to the right combination of governments.

• 7:29Speaker 02

  So you're willing to hand over this company?

• 7:32Speaker 01

  I want to be very clear about this. The worry I have, I am concerned that one single government could abuse this technology just as easily as a single company could. But I think a combination of democratically elected governments, I don't know about handing over, but some kind of oversight, some kind of joint governance.

• 7:57Tom Bilyeu?

  This is wild.

• 7:57Speaker 01

  Again, that would be the work of years. But I wonder if that's the direction we need to go in.

• 8:03Tom Bilyeu?

  So either these guys are right and we don't have years, or we have plenty of time and we're going to be able to slow this down. And that is a big core essence to the debate that's going on is, okay, is this something, is AI really, despite the fact that that swarm was able to break containment and go hack a website or an app, is that really indicative of the fact that this stuff is about to be in a non-human needed self-improving loop or not? And are there going to be things that we can do along the way? The people that are close to the technology are completely divided. Some people are saying, oh my God, this is, you know, going to be absolutely insane. We can see how good this is getting and it's just this upward spiral and we're not going to be able to control it.

• 8:48Tom Bilyeu?

  And then there are other people that are using AI on a day to day basis, pointing out some very obvious things that AI still cannot do. And as somebody that uses AI daily in a business context, teaches other people to do the same, I will tell you that AI has just massive and clear limitations as of today. Now, it is entirely possible that these guys are seeing, you know, one, two, maybe even three models ahead of where we are today at the consumer level. And so they really do have a reason to be afraid. But in the meantime, when you've got Dario wants US labs to coordinate on capability limits with a government antitrust waiver, hopefully you can understand that when these guys are just nakedly saying that we want to collude like a cartel, that there are things that we should be very concerned about

• 9:33Tom Bilyeu?

  where the solution ends up being far more damaging than the actual problem that underlies it. Listen, AI is an incredibly important technology. It's the single most important technology. This is an incredibly important decision. But when you see that he's sort of free balling this idea of creating a one world government that's going to oversee it in some way, but like, he's got to still be involved somehow. Like, this is one of those things, he's right. It will take a very long time to put something like that together. And if you play out, hopefully, everything that you know about governments, you will realize that if you give governments that kind of control, they will and have historically weaponized that against people.

• 10:12Tom Bilyeu?

  And the thing that basically stops this from happening is people being able to get together, build competing engines that end up holding each other effectively in stasis. And so that's why this argument ends up boiling down to, what is this really? We're hitting pause for a moment, but there's plenty more ahead, so don't go anywhere. There's a reason Quince sells cashmere for $60, and it isn't the cashmere. It's real 100% Mongolian cashmere. It's the same stuff luxury labels charge a fortune for. Quince just works directly with ethical factories and cuts out the middleman. So there's no need for a markup and no logo tax.

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• 11:41Tom Bilyeu?

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• 13:47Tom Bilyeu?

  Thanks for sticking around. Let's get right back into the action. Is this a call for, hey, I've got a company that is now starting to struggle. The entire world is making one big bet on AI. And a big part of that bet is playing out in the markets. The other part of that bet is playing out between countries. And another part of that bet is playing out between closed source and open source. So the market basically needs closed source to win. I'm talking investors. Closed source means there's going to be a small handful of companies that generate huge amounts of return to capital investors. Those guys want to see their company, whoever they've placed the bet on,

• 14:28Tom Bilyeu?

  to get the kinds of protections from the government that will create a moat for them. This is a whole idea of regulatory capture. If they can get regulatory capture, then they've got a massive advantage that will stop AI from going open source, will stop China from being able to do the things that it wants to do, will curtail that competition. Now, instead of having different models holding each other in dynamic stasis in terms of, the only way to defeat an AI swarm is with another AI swarm. What you end up getting is the government ends up controlling this technology top to bottom. And the first thing that they have to do is outlaw open source. Now, why would a capital investor be very excited about that without ever saying that?

• 15:13Tom Bilyeu?

  They're never going to admit that on camera, but why would that be advantageous for them? It would be advantageous for them because now you just kill open source. Because Dario has already said out loud that this is something where you have to be able to unwind a release. So you put something out, you realize that there are ways to exploit it that you didn't anticipate, and you're going to have to unwind that. That's completely impossible with open source. So if you end up putting a consortium of people together that say, well, this has got to be something that we roll back or that we can roll back, you literally, by definition, have just eliminated open source. Now, again, it's entirely possible that these guys are seeing something that we're not

• 15:54Tom Bilyeu?

  and that there's a justified fear there, but they aren't putting that forward. They aren't showing people, hey, here's exactly what we've seen that makes us very concerned about this. And when you look at China's response, you begin to see that that's exactly what they think this is. When you look at David Sacks, who I think has had an absolutely banger response to this, you understand that there's a way to thought-exercise test exactly what Dario is pushing for, whether he's pushing for regulatory capture that will be advantageous for the company or whether he's pushing for a sensible, coordinated slowdown to give us the time to put these things,

• 16:34Tom Bilyeu?

  to put alignment at the forefront of this to make sure that we are not moving forward at a reckless pace, but instead we're doing this well. And this is what David Sacks had to say.

• 16:44Speaker 03

  Uh, Dario has written that we need to pace the frontier and Sam has agreed. People may be surprised by my response. Go ahead. You guys are the frontier by any reasonable metric, market share, revenue growth, model capability. The two of you have the duopoly on frontier intelligence. You've also claimed the lead is widening because of recursive self-improvement. I don't see what you see in the lab. If the unreleased models are scary enough that you think you should slow down, I support your decision to be responsible. But stop pretending you need anyone else's permission. Stop pretending antitrust laws has to be suspended so you could form a cartel. Stop pretending you need regulatory approval process that supersedes product liability. Stop pretending MTR is independent and when it is intertwined with Anthropic's investors and staff.

• 17:26Speaker 03

  Stop pretending you need those same evaluators to police competitors who aren't even at the frontier.

• 17:32Tom Bilyeu?

  So he is making, I think, a very clear case that's echoed by the former head of the FTC that basically there are plenty of laws on the books already that are going to stop people from releasing products that hurt customers. So if you're actually worried that your product is going to hurt customers, then all you have to do is slow down. Now, the reason that they're not going to slow down is that they're ultimately trying to protect their business. And keep in mind that Anthropic is trying to do a public offering. So they want to IPO, they want to make, I mean, north of a trillion dollars in that IPO. And by pointing out that your technology is so good, it's so powerful that it becomes dangerous,

• 18:15Tom Bilyeu?

  that this starts to read like an IPO hype letter. And the fact that you've got people like Michael Burry that are echoing that exact sentiment, saying, look, this is all BS. This is just hype. You've got Yan Le Cun, an AI developer who's saying, look, I laughed at these guys when they were saying that their 2.0 version was something so dangerous that it couldn't be released and we should all be clowning on them now when they're saying the same thing. That these things do not represent something that is currently in a state that is truly weapon-like. And so you have to understand that all these guys are doing is clamoring to use the government to overcome the fact that their revenues are not coming in fast enough to deal with the debt. And so that gets us back to this ticking time bomb that we've got.

• 18:58Tom Bilyeu?

  If you're placing your huge bet on AI as a market investor, then you're looking at that discrepancy. You're looking at the historical evidence that says any revolutionary new technology like this ends up succumbing to the debt. The first generation of investors end up getting wiped out. And it's what's known as the inheritance generation that ends up actually making good on this. And that has played out over and over and over from railroads to industrialization to the internet. And so there's just a very knowable pattern that's playing out. So as investors look at this and they see, uh-oh, we're not able to get the income fast enough to deal with the looming debt. What else can we do?

• 19:43Tom Bilyeu?

  And that other thing that they can do is force the government to put restrictions on them instead of simply restricting themselves. And so if each of these corporations were actually interested in acting in the interest of people and they actually believed that these things were a threat, then they would stop. And so how are we, as the public, meant to look at a company that's saying, listen, I'm about to IPO on the back of a product that may wipe out all of humanity? It's completely nonsensical. And these guys have backed themselves into a trap that is, I think, pretty wild. So what they should be doing is just saying, okay, listen, we can see, based on the rate of improvement, that we've got, let's say, three generations where we're going to be fine. We're going to race to that.

• 20:26Tom Bilyeu?

  And then after that, we're going to cap our own ability. And anybody else that's going to go forward is already going to get hammered by the government because the government is going to see that they're starting to put out products that are putting the public at risk. So that's not what they're saying, though. Instead, what they're saying is something that will, even though these are not the words coming out of their mouth, it will lead to them having a guaranteed moat created by the government where there is all of this integration essentially between a very small number of corporations at the frontier, making it impossible for the open source to thrive. And so that brings China into the picture.

• 21:07Tom Bilyeu?

  And so I've said a gazillion times here that people need to remember that this is an arms race between the US and China. And if you understand that stopping development in the US while China marches forward is, you don't alleviate any of the risk, none at all. And you guarantee that then China is going to push forward and surpass what we're doing here in the US. And China is just outright calling this their state media. Let's be very clear, there's two responses coming out of China. You've got a response from the state media and then you have a response from their foreign minister. And the state media is just saying, this is a Cold War playbook.

• 21:51Tom Bilyeu?

  This is all meant to slow us down. You guys are trying to build panic in the US or maybe capitalize on the panic in the US. Because I think there's already plenty of panic without Dario and other people coming out and saying that this is an existential threat. I think people are already super paranoid about that. So you've got China saying, listen, you guys are trying to make sure that you'll get even stricter on exporting chips to us. So this is really about getting export controls to China. This is also about trying to get further policing on the distillation. So remember, part of how China has been able to make the open source model so powerful is they just train them against the frontier models here in the US. And so we know that you're going to further crackdown on that.

• 22:35Tom Bilyeu?

  And we know by definition, this is going to eliminate the open source play, which is exactly the play that China is trying to make. And so you've got all of that swirling around, everybody trying to figure out what exactly is pushing these guys to make these claims. And if it is that your product really is that dangerous, well, now you've got a disclosure problem looming in the background that these guys so far have not acknowledged. And I think a big part of the reason they're not acknowledging the SEC required disclosures of the potential threats is because they know that AI isn't there yet. And that they're actually putting forward these ideas, not because they think that there's a clear and imminent danger.

• 23:19Tom Bilyeu?

  They're putting these forward because they are likely to be advantaged by them. Now, I don't have any insider information, so that's one guy's opinion, so take it for what it's worth. But when you look at the fact that nobody is stopping them from backing off, that they're pushing forward for their own sake, all while saying, to quote Mike Benz, please daddy govern me harder. And it gets very complex to be generous when you start looking at who would be advantaged by the government getting involved in this. All right, so if you're Trump, do you want to see the government get more control of this? The answer so far seems to be no.

• 24:02Tom Bilyeu?

  So Trump, from the rumors, is dodging their calls. He's not taking their calls. He doesn't want to hear anything about it. Why? Because Trump belongs in the camp of people that think like capital investors. So he's like, we've got two issues. One, I want to make sure that the economy is thriving. Remember, my thesis is the big part of the reason that he went into the Middle East was less about oil and more about oil dollars getting translated into investments into US AI infrastructure. That Kevin Warsh was selected because Kevin Warsh believes that AI is a deflationary technology. And so Trump was like, cool, I've got a guy that gets it. He understands what AI is going to do. I'm going to make sure that all the investment dollars are flooding in.

• 24:47Tom Bilyeu?

  So Trump is dodging those calls, pointing at China and saying, nope, we can't slow down because China is then going to pull ahead of us. The left, on the other hand, is taking the opposite approach. You've got Bernie Sanders calling for 20-year prison sentences for anybody that continues to develop AI past a certain point. He's not saying they should be arrested today, but he is saying that, hey, there's a point at which we got to arrest these guys, we got to put them in jail. And when you look at Microsoft, Microsoft and Microsoft linked donors have, according to, I believe it was Mike Benz that I saw this from, they've donated $112 million to the Obama Foundation.

• 25:30Tom Bilyeu?

  And the rumors are, again, take this for what it's worth, but the rumors are that Obama is behind the scenes trying to get the Democratic Party to make AI their central issue. So getting governmental enforcement saying Trump and the Trump administration, these guys are being completely reckless, they're building a weapon essentially that is going to put you all out of work or even just risk human civilization all told. And so we want to get governmental control. Now, super easy to believe that, given what was coming out after the Biden administration lost the election, which was they were telling Silicon Valley investors, don't even bother investing in AI startups anymore because we're not going to allow them to exist.

• 26:14Tom Bilyeu?

  So you've got these two competing forces between the left and the right. They are likely to make AI the central issue in the next election, which, by the way, if I were advising people on the Democratic side, that is 100% what I would tell them to focus on. That is way smarter than some of the other cultural issues is, obviously smarter than the DSA, just absolutely idiotic, suicidal economic policies that they're putting forward. And then you have to ask, okay, which of these scenarios are we better off in? Are we better off letting the free market as much as possible, create this technology, drawing some line around where this becomes weapons grade, which I remain thinking that that's important. But right now, I'm not hearing people talk about sensible regulation.

• 26:58Tom Bilyeu?

  I'm hearing people talk about fear-based moats, cartels, doing things that will give the government in Dario's universe, a one-world government, authoritarian control basically over everybody through the single most important technology to ever exist. So those are going to be the competing forces. This panic, doomerism, we've got to shut it down. It's the central issue for the left. And then on the right, this is a capital game. Everybody's making a gigantic bet. We're in a race against China. And then China saying, listen, you guys do what you want, but we know you're just trying to slow us down, which lets you know they're not interested in slowing down. So you would, at that point, be ceding control of the single most important technology the world's ever seen to a foreign adversary.

• 27:42Tom Bilyeu?

  This, this is a very unwise approach. So for all of us, the thing that we have to do to get to the other side of this well is the thing that I've been beating the drum on, which is Connor Leahy's idea of you've got to differentiate between what is weapons grade, what is civilian use, go hard on building out the civilian use, and then make sure that you have something driven by people who actually understand the technology but are not financially incentivized to create a moat. Get those people to say, okay, listen, this is where we think that this becomes potentially that upward spiral of no human in the loop, self recursive improvement.

• 28:27Tom Bilyeu?

  And so that, we're going to put constraints on, we're going to make sure that we don't get there, but up until that point, we're going to keep developing AI. Now, we should be attempting to coordinate with China, but I think that that's going to be far harder than people are giving it credit for. And, I mean, out of Dario's own mouth, you're looking at years to get something in place to deal with a one-world government, let alone doing something between the US and China. So, yeah, this is a wild ride that is going to require cooler heads. We are almost certainly not going to get that. We are going to get the fight between basically capital and panic. And that is, man, that's rough. And so, yeah, this is going to be something that I believe we're going to be talking a lot about. This is wild times.

• 29:12Speaker 03

  The poll, I threw a poll in the chat. How should AI be regulated? 29% said we should slow it down. 18% said we should stop. 53% said we have to beat China.

• 29:24Tom Bilyeu?

  Yeah. Well, so the 53% I think are the most sensible of the group. I like to think that the other people, if you really push, they're going to say they want, I guess, other than the 18% that want to shut it down, they would want to get something that I'll put in the Connor Leahy basket. So Connor is somebody, if you guys didn't watch the interview, which I highly encourage you do, he uses AI every day, thinks it's an incredible technology and certainly does not want to see it go away, but understands that there is a point where it crosses a point of no return. He doesn't want to be the person making that decision, so he doesn't really put out, like, here's what I think it is. So we don't have a lot of great voices talking about that yet.

• 30:07Tom Bilyeu?

  But that, I think, ultimately is where this debate ends up having to go. The part that I think people are, if you're in the 18%, I don't think you're being realistic about what it means to shut it down. Like, what are you talking about? Are you talking about we launch a preemptive attack on China in the way that we launched a preemptive attack on Iran because that's gone so well? Like, what is the, what's the strat there? And if you agree that that would, that launching a preemptive attack against China would be a just absolutely moronic decision, I can't think of very many decisions that would be worse than that. If we agree that that's a terrible idea, then how do we stop them from going down that path?

• 30:49Tom Bilyeu?

  And even if they say they will, how can they trust that the US will actually stop that development? They can't, just as we can't trust that even if they say they're going to, that they will actually. And so game theory tells you that as long as they believe this is a technology that should be pushed forward, it's going to be pushed forward. And so for me, the analysis on this issue comes down to one belief. You either believe that we can detect when AI is going to cross that invisible line and therefore we can walk up to a reasonable distance from that and stop or put constraints in, or you don't. And you think that that line is invisible, there's no way to know when we're going to

• 31:30Tom Bilyeu?

  cross it, and so doomerism kicks in and you're, it's just way safer to kill all of this off. And that's it. And it doesn't matter what we, the populace thinks it because we're going up against an authoritarian dictator. So it doesn't matter what the average person in China thinks. It doesn't matter what Trump thinks. It doesn't matter if we get Trump out of office. All that matters is will Xi keep pushing forward? If Xi will keep pushing forward, then the US has to keep pushing forward in order to stop the assaults that would come from AI. This AI is, I think it is a useful analogy to think about nuclear, partly because America fucked up their nuclear response so terribly that we can see that panic does not work.

• 32:14Tom Bilyeu?

  To give you an idea, I forget the orders of magnitude, but it's like a whatever kilowatt of energy in France is like four times cheaper than the US and then like 10 times cheaper in China. Those aren't literal numbers, but they're very, very close. They're certainly directionally accurate. And that was because Three Mile Islands has a problem and then we panic and we basically kill off nuclear energy here in the US just sort of full stop. A catastrophic mistake. We never should have done that. And so I think the US right now is on a path to panicking its way out of AI in the same way that we panicked our way out of nuclear and China's going to do the exact opposite.

• 32:57Tom Bilyeu?

  In the same way that they didn't panic their way out of nuclear, they're not going to panic their way out of AI. And so they're going to keep developing it. But now there are real consequences to that decision. And so that's, like I said, you can usually identify what the base assumption is that is the load bearing base assumption. And I think that's the one.

• 33:15Speaker 03

  And in your perspective, you think we are able to identify that line and we can get close to it and then stop before we cross it?

• 33:23Tom Bilyeu?

  It, I'll say that even I don't trust myself to make that analysis. So it doesn't really matter what I believe there. What matters is, do I think that we're anywhere near that now? And I would say, given that we have not been shown anything by the people who are doomsaying, and all of the people doomsaying, including Elon Musk, have a financial incentive for that to happen, we cannot just take them at their word. So trust me, bro will not work at this point. So what we have to see is, show me a mathematical equation that demonstrates like the rate of improvement or something, and then say, okay, listen, this is what has actually happened. So if you model this forward, both the level

• 34:06Tom Bilyeu?

  of improvement and our ability to constrain it, because they're acting like they haven't gotten better at constraining it, but they have. And so they launch this fable, it can do this swarming, do all this hacking, they roll it back, constrain it, re-release it. And on top of that, they are able to make more powerful models that they seem comfortable with, that both OpenAI and Anthropic have said, listen, we've got a couple more generations of AI that are just fine. And I think they say that partly because it's true and partly because they have to. They have to tell you that story or they're never going to be able to IPO. So it is such a sketched out belief system to believe that you have this thing

• 34:47Tom Bilyeu?

  that you actually think has a relatively high P doom, meaning percentage of doom. So 10%, 20%, the guy that came out as a whistleblower, I think said 70% P doom. So it's like, you've got these guys attaching a number to this, but are still like, well, we're going to keep developing it. So it's like, I can't make that make sense unless I go, oh, you're pretty sure that you're going to be able to stop it because you see not only the projected capabilities, you see the projected constraints. But you only ever talk about projected capabilities and act as if there's no projected constraints. So if they map both of those things out and we see, okay, this is how much better it's getting. And this is the methods that we're

• 35:31Tom Bilyeu?

  using to constrain it as much as they can talk about it. So I'm sure some of that's going to be proprietary. But it's like, I'm able to see both of those avenues so that we can make a decision to go, oh, wait a second. Now I'm not in my imagination, which will run away with me and I can see how this all gets really crazy, but I'm actually grounded in, why haven't these bad things happened yet? Part of the reason these bad things haven't happened yet is these guys are putting more and more onus on themselves to make sure that they protect themselves, if from nothing else, lawsuits. These got like, part of what I can't wrap my head around is, they have just handed to any collective lawsuit, the most ammunition in the world. Imagine being

• 36:16Tom Bilyeu?

  in a grand jury and they play you Dario Amodei saying, yeah, this could kill everybody and we need to be way more careful. But if you guys don't handcuff me and let me act like a cartel, I guess I just have to keep developing it. You're like, get the fuck out of here. They'll get sued into oblivion, which by the way, is exactly how you end up with the world where this initial wave of investors and companies just, they get obliterated. And then the other companies come in behind them and go, yeah, we're actually going to constrain ourselves because the system is working as it should. There are already laws on the books. Okay. Let me say that one more time. There are already laws on the books. If these guys are like, I need constraints, then just say, hey, as the FTC already makes

• 36:58Tom Bilyeu?

  abundantly clear, we can't keep doing this. We at Anthropic are putting these safeguards in control. OpenAI AI is not. China is not. Fuck those kids. Immediately clamp down on them. But they're not doing that because it's not to their advantage. They're to get to their advantage. They've got to be on the inside of making the policies. They've got to be working with the government now as they were during the Biden administration. Okay. So I want to remind everybody where we were two years ago. Two years ago, it was, hey, Mark Andreessen, don't invest in any more AI companies. We are not going to let them exist. And I quote, so the Biden administration was already telling people exactly how this was going to play out. We're going to have complete authoritarian control over this.

• 37:39Tom Bilyeu?

  Simple as. And that is, Anthropic was in the room for that. Anthropic knew they were one of the two or three companies that was going to get ushered in and be working hand in glove with the government. And so it's like, cool. If I have to be subservient to the government so that I make sure that I'm one of the companies that survives, because remember, when we put two things together, we've got to have the government decides, they've got to have complete control of this. And we can't lose to China, because that would become abundantly clear, by the way. If you do nothing, you will just see them start pulling ahead. So you will then panic and start speeding up. And guess who you're going to fund to make sure that we don't lose to China? The two or three companies

• 38:24Tom Bilyeu?

  that you gave the green light to exist. And so now those guys do not have to worry about competing in the open market. The investors, that first wave of investors that history tells us sort of rightly get wiped out, they're going to be protected by who? By you, the taxpayer. So there's just so much incentive for these guys to spin a story that were much farther along the danger path than we actually are. And so that's why I'm like, hold on a second. So that is not me saying we don't need regulation. We need the regulation that I've outlined multiple times before. That isn't even me saying that if these guys

• 39:05Tom Bilyeu?

  really see something that they haven't been forthright with, then they should back off immediately. I love that the most. But they're not telling us what's really going on. So at this point, the Occam's razor of it all says, it is more likely that these guys are trying to get the financial protection of the government and that there is a government entity that is all too happy to comply with that, which is the Democrats as of right now. And the donations that you see, big AI aligned, so Microsoft specifically, are making donations to somebody who has inordinate amounts of influence with the Democratic Party. So it's,

• 39:48Tom Bilyeu?

  there are a lot of things that are lining up. A lot of it's rumor, a lot of it's conjecture at this point. Nobody should take what I'm saying is like, this is all gospel written in stone fact, but it's like, yeah, this all lines up with what I know about the government and their desire for massive amounts of control.

• 40:04Tom Bilyeu?

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• 40:47Tom Bilyeu?

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• 41:19Tom Bilyeu?

  Thanks for sticking around. Let's get right back into the action.

• 41:24Speaker 03

  Nice. Um, it, that's what it kinda seems like to me. They're just trying to ensure their bags. So regulatory capture, IPO, trillion dollars. That's the one, two, three of it all. Do you think that this impacts their IPOs coming up? That's why the push is happening now around midterms to get the favorable wins. So that when they do IPO next year, it's, they can kinda come up with this cover story that doesn't mess up their big checks?

• 41:49Tom Bilyeu?

  I think that they've done something really strange and in many ways, put themselves in a difficult position to get what they need from the government, to get what they need from the public, which is to believe, because for everybody that starts panicking, there's an investor that's like, oh my God, this must really be something like, yo, this is gonna be huge. I gotta, I gotta get in. Uh, we're just at the beginning of the hype cycle. Um, so Anthropic has been accused of this many, many times. They've been using the same cycle every time they, they need to raise capital. Uh, they come out and say, oh my God, this is just too dangerous. So they've been doing this for so long now that it very much is the boy who cried wolf. Just remember, the boy who cried wolf really does get eaten by a wolf. So keep that in mind.

• 42:27Tom Bilyeu?

  Uh, but it, I think is some of that. So they've got themselves in a weird position from the IPO perspective, because people are gonna use this against them to sue them, for sure. And then they need it to get from the government what they need. So they've gotta say it, but they put themselves at risk every time they say it. So we'll see what happens. If there's any sort of class action lawsuit that like really deals these guys a blow or not. Um, but the laws are already there that people can use against them for sure.

• 42:59Speaker 03

  Yeah, we have to jump over to Saudi Arabia now because they are dealing with some massive blowback. You can kinda see the before and after of these satellite images. After the Houthis ran through their east-west pipeline, which is supposed to be the circumvent the straight of Hormuz. And now there's some reports they're asking for help.

• 43:15Tom Bilyeu?

  This is one of those times where I absolutely hate being right. But I said, when you have naked infrastructure sitting on top of the sand, people are going to blow it up and blow it up. They did. So Saudi Arabia is asking for help from everybody. When Trump declined, rumors say to help Saudi Arabia with strikes against the Houthis, which obviously didn't happen. Uh, then they went wide looking for help so wide that according to, take this with a grain of salt, but according to Israel Haom, uh, and they were citing Gulf diplomatic officials, the Saudis went directly to other Gulf states and Egypt for assistance as well as sending an indirect request through CENTCOM to Israel for intelligence and other support

• 44:00Tom Bilyeu?

  with dealing with the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Now, the idea of Saudi, Saudi Arabia and Israel working together is absolutely crazy. If you guys have not been paying attention, that is not something that you would have seen even a few years ago. Previously Saudi Arabia had refused to even normalize relations with Israel. They were like the big holdout from the Abraham Accords. And people were talking about like, part of the reason that October 7th happened was because Iran was like, hey, wait a second. Is Saudi Arabia actually warming up to the idea of normalizing with Israel? So this is another step down that road. And now Saudi Arabia is just, if the rumors are true, or I should say if the reporting is true, because this has been reported. But if the reporting is true, then you've got Saudi asking Israel to help them with their shipping lanes.

• 44:45Tom Bilyeu?

  Now, this is one of those things where war makes strange bedfellows, man. Remember, we got in bed with Stalin, one of the worst mass murderers of all time to bring World War II to a close. So the question is, where are we gonna be on the other side of this? Are we going to be in a situation where we had some crazy knock on effects of we go in, strike Iran, trying to basically galvanize the Gulf regions, but the enemy gets a say in all of this. They start hitting the Gulf regions, taking out all of their energy infrastructure, which made them at first want to turn against the US, but then they quickly realized, oh, that's gonna create a bigger problem for us because now we've got the Houthis popping off in the Red Sea, blowing up our east-west pipeline, which by the way, was leading to the Red Sea anyway.

• 45:29Tom Bilyeu?

  So now we're in a position where we are having no luck in the Strait of Hormuz. We're having no luck over here in the Red Sea. And so that means we've really got to get together with whoever, I don't care Israeli or otherwise. We've got to get together with everybody to get control of this and refocus on the economy. Now, I think that that is the ultimate play. From the very first time I started talking about Israel, Palestine, I said, listen, the only path forward is for the Palestinians to start thinking about the economy, plain and simple. They've gotta let go all of the animosity and hatred and just start thinking about how do we move forward?

• 46:11Tom Bilyeu?

  And I think that's what the divide is gonna be here. You've got people who are trying to usher in the word of God, going up against the people who are like, bro, we're just trying to have an economy that lives beyond oil and we can't be here blowing everything up. And I think that they will partner up with whoever they need to partner up to get on the other side of this, because this is so economically damaging that people who otherwise might've had beef with somebody because of historical grievances, differences of religion are suddenly like, all right, listen, if you're gonna help me economically, then at least for the time being, I'm gonna partner up with you. Now, how long that's going to last, I don't know, but I think it is going to be the theocracy against the economy. And that is ultimately where I think you're gonna see the dividing lines.

• 46:56Tom Bilyeu?

  And we'll see who wins, because when you're theocratic and you really believe that God wants you to do what you're doing, you'll go to some serious fucking lengths to see that through. Uh, so I certainly wouldn't say that it's gonna be a guaranteed victory for the economy. But this move tells me that that is ultimately where the real dividing lines are in the Middle East.

• 47:17Speaker 03

  Yeah, we'll have to keep looking at it because it seems like things are ripping and running in so many different directions. Oil prices today are right over a hundred and three dollars. Diesel has hit all.

• 47:27Tom Bilyeu?

  Not as crazy as you would expect, man. Like it is, we'll, we'll talk about diesel in a second, because diesel is kind of as crazy as you would expect.

• 47:34Speaker 03

  Yeah, that's what I mean. You've seen in certain places.

• 47:36Tom Bilyeu?

  The fact that oil hasn't skyrocketed in the Middle East, I think speaks to two things. One, how much demand destruction there's been. Two, how much of the Iranian oil, which is counting for a large portion of the total that travels through the straits. When people talk about, oh, this is, you know, 20% of global demand. Well, some meaningful percentage of that is just Iran's oil going directly to China. Uh, and if China is one, able to throttle it, two, is migrating away from oil into solar and nuclear as fast as they can. And three, their economy is really struggling, then you're looking at,

• 48:15Tom Bilyeu?

  it just hasn't been as disruptive as you would expect. Now, when you combine what's going on in the Middle East with what's going on in Russia and Ukraine, which impacts diesel more so, now you start getting into scary territory. At last check over the weekend, diesel was up like 80%. Yeesh. So you start seeing diesel up 80% and you get this clip from Trump. This is crazy.

• 48:42Speaker 04

  Mr. Zelensky has to do one thing. Mr. Zelensky has to do one thing. Wait a minute, can I talk? Mr. Zelensky has to do one thing. He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia. Let him go after targets, but not diesel fuel, because he's causing a shortage of diesel. This isn't done by the Middle East. This is done by what's happening with Russia and Ukraine.

• 49:08Tom Bilyeu?

  That, that is the most practical take in the world. So I want everybody to understand, everybody's got.

• 49:14Speaker 03

  Trump can have practical takes every now and then, you know?

• 49:16Tom Bilyeu?

  I mean, listen, he's doing. Well, so the bad news is I think Trump is always practical. If you say what's good for Trump, what's gonna put money in Trump's pocket? He's always gonna give you the, the straight thing there. He's always saying the quiet part out loud. It's just every now and then what he wants actually aligns with what other people want. Uh, and so this is one of those times where he's got his finger on a real problem. So right now, the world is blowing up all of the areas that deliver energy to the countries that have not sufficiently embraced nuclear and solar. So China has the most flexibility, oddly enough.

• 49:55Tom Bilyeu?

  Everybody else is now gonna feel the burn. So we'll see how much Russia's supply ends up impacting the world, since most places were already getting sanctioned anyway. But for Trump to just come out and say, listen, I know you're trying to win a war, but don't hit the things that really matter. It's pretty crazy. It, it is a powerful reminder that we live in a world governed by the economy. And all of the people in the world have a moral stance until their grandma is freezing to death in the middle of the winter in Minnesota, real fast, suddenly people are gonna be like, wait on, hold up, like, we gotta, we gotta start getting this oil through.

• 50:33Tom Bilyeu?

  Uh, you're gonna see the same thing in Europe. So if people are unable to eat, people are unable to stay warm. Uh, people's tune will change pretty quick. As you can see, Trump's tune changing. There for a while, he wanted to slap

• 50:50Tom Bilyeu?

  Putin around as much as he could, because he was pissed that Putin didn't give him what he want, which was to end the war before he took office. Let's never forget that chant, uh, which obviously did not work. And so, yeah, you live in a world governed primarily by the economy. We see where it becomes theocratic and how much people are willing to suffer. Uh, but in most places in the world, people are only gonna put up with so much when it starts causing massive inflation.

• 51:16Speaker 03

  It's one of those things though that we joked, we not joked, we talked about it a couple of weeks ago, how these wars are more related than we like to think. But we were talking about it more on the weapons deal, how people are passing weapons and intelligence back and forth. But it's really this supply of oil that is causing disparate shock. So Iran is actively knocking out other alternatives to the straight to increase its importance. Ukraine is knocking out diesel, trying to strangle Russia. They're making the same, like, opposite sides of the war are doing the same thing in a very weird way. If you like, map it out and take kind of a step back from that way.

• 51:52Tom Bilyeu?

  Not even a weird way, like this is, okay, so it is so popular to hate America right now. But let's have a history lesson as to how we ended up here. You have Europe absolutely tearing itself apart after God knows how many hundreds of years of all these war, the Game of Thrones, quite literally. And they drag everybody into World War One and they're like, okay, never again, psych, just kidding. They drag everybody into World War Two. And then on the back of that, Europe was so thoroughly devastated psychologically, financially, just from an infrastructure standpoint, they were completely knocked out.

• 52:32Tom Bilyeu?

  The US, on the other hand, still in the glorious echo from Alexander Hamilton, have a strong economy, they've industrialized, but they haven't become psychopaths to debt yet. Because remember, we actually were able to get out from under the debt back then. I can speedrun it again if people don't remember, but it's like, we, we have a much healthier relationship with debt. We actually addressed the debt problem on the back of having been the, the economy that helped people through the war, that got gold here in the US, had a dollar backed by gold. Were the industrial powerhouse, were making everything for everybody. The war sharpened our ability to produce and then we just help everybody rebuild.

• 53:15Tom Bilyeu?

  And by the way, we actually have a moral center. I just cannot stress enough, people need to research what happened in Japan post-World War Two. It's crazy. Same thing with Germany, what an incredible natural experiment that was. And so, America really had a reason to champion freedom. And we hadn't yet gotten completely pathological about our desire to control all the resources in the world. Because for a while, it, it really was just a great exchange. Now, it becomes pathological, but for a second, I want you guys to focus on, America created tremendous peace and prosperity the world over by building a military that had an insanely strong navy. And we were able to keep commerce just flowing.

• 53:57Tom Bilyeu?

  And so, things got so good and the economy in the developed nations were growing so rapidly that Europe climbs out of the ashes of World War Two. Japan becomes arguably the greatest economy at the time in the mid eighties. China ends up leapfrogging Japan and virtually everybody else to become a peer with the US through globalization. I mean, just an absolute unmitigated success for a while. And then it begins, the snake begins eating its own tail and we end up hollowing out manufacturing. And we discover that if you don't maintain discipline and you take on an insane amount of debt,

• 54:38Tom Bilyeu?

  that all the things that were working for you flip and they begin working against you. America loses its moral center. America begins clamoring just to get more and more resources because they have to disguise the fact that they stopped building real wage growth for the middle class. Because they were doing everything through debts. They were claiming to be a capitalist nation when really they were sliding towards socialism. And the big things going wrong in the economy are all the things where we muddy up the free markets. Not that you want a pure free market, I'm not that guy. But we went way past sensible regulation into just absolutely creating all kinds of insane situations

• 55:19Tom Bilyeu?

  like what we see in healthcare, like what we see in education, just absolutely breaking the financial incentives with the government stepping in to guarantee everything. Corporate socialism by bailing out banks and making sure that the stock market never goes down for long. I mean, just really, really doing asinine shit. But before that, kids, we create a global prosperity through peace, through strength. And now what we're seeing is, we don't have that strength anymore and people are going buck wild. And this is not going to be a fun time. When you've got people in Toyotas with big ass guns, running around in sandals, and they can take down developed nations like Saudi Arabia, or stymieing the US,

• 56:04Tom Bilyeu?

  not that Iran is wearing sandals, they very much are not, those guys are a developed nation. But they can stymie the US, man. And this is only the beginning. Because if this turns out, you've got the Houthis now becoming a real regional power because they control the strait and then that strengthens Iran even more. And then Iran becomes a regional power by just choking off the strait. You're going to find other people are like, oh, this is actually a winning formula. And now, everybody's either just keeping things regional, or they are realizing that, oh, we're going to have to pay these tolls. And so now, everything becomes far more expensive, which then is going to put people into these vacillating populist death loops. It's not going to be a good time. It's going to be wild.

• 56:49Tom Bilyeu?

  Unless, of course, America can refine its moral center, get out from under its debt, but we'll see. That, that's a different rant that I won't do now.

• 56:57Speaker 03

  Yeah, I didn't think that those were related, but yeah, I kind of see how you popped those two together.

• 57:02Tom Bilyeu?

  Hmm, they're very related, unfortunately.

• 57:05Speaker 03

  Yeah, it's, it's interesting though, because I do think that this is one of those situations, we're not going to learn until we get to the other side of it. We, we have to almost touch the fire, we have to.

• 57:15Tom Bilyeu?

  We're dry humping the stove, our foreskin is burning off and we're still going to town, dude. This is so crazy. I don't know, I mean, I know exactly what they're thinking and I can map it out. But it is so terrifying to me that whoever coded the matrix was just like, I'm going to make humans super volatile and prone to group think. And whenever they get panicky, they're going to team up and act a fool. And that, that is the universe that we live in. And it is so dangerous. And because all of us grew up under the shield of a strong moral America, we're completely confused now about what the world is actually like. And as we return back to, because this all started with you saying, these guys are like, doing this like crazy thing in all these different ways.

• 58:00Tom Bilyeu?

  It's like, no, it, it isn't crazy. What they're doing is saying, oh, I can press my advantage now. The, the bully got punched in the nose and now I see that he's a paper tiger. Fuck these kids. So the only reason that I didn't like line up all my Toyotas with the big fucking guns and take this thing over a long time ago is I thought they were just going to kill us all. It's like, oh, they're not, like, we're way stronger than we thought we were compared to their weak ass. Cool, they're not going to be able to see this through. So, we're now the new Afghanistan.

• 58:27Speaker 03

  Geez, enough said.

• 58:28Tom Bilyeu?

  Now, well, let's say more, bro. Because now, welcome back to CIA. Okay, if we can't do this via strong power, oh, we're about to do it via soft power. And so, expect cocaine to be dealt in the neighborhood near you by a guy in a trench coat, wearing sunglasses. It's like, it is going to get so weird. That's obviously tongue in cheek, but I'm really pointing at something real. Like, the battle's going to play out in NGOs, secretive organizations, when you can't do things publicly because it just instantly goes across the internet everywhere.

• 58:58Speaker 03

  The internet, SD Nash, yeah.

• 59:00Tom Bilyeu?

  It's all clandestine, it's all NGOs, it, it's, yeah, it's going to get wild. So we'll see, man. It's, I'm really sad that I no longer believe in NGOs. Until about, what, six months ago, I thought they were really like do-gooders. And as you start peeling that back and you realize it's a mixed bag, it gets very traumatizing.

• 59:20Speaker 03

  Mixed bag is the best way to put it.

• 59:21Tom Bilyeu?

  I pulled a clip, I didn't think we were going to get to it. But I pulled a clip of everybody's favorite, Peter Thiel. And I expect this to be controversial, but this was Peter Thiel talking like a year and a half ago about basically how, I think he calls it the Antichrist ends up taking power. But let's, let's give a listen. We're going to be starting and stopping this one.

• 59:43Speaker 05

  Now, I have a lot of thoughts on this topic, but.

• 59:49Speaker 05

  But sort of one, one question is, and this was a plot hole in all these Antichrist books. People wrote, how does the Antichrist take over the world? It's, um, he gives these demonic hypnotic speeches and people just fall for it. And so it's this plot hole. It's this demonium.

• 1:00:07Speaker 06

  It's totally, it's implausible.

• 1:00:09Speaker 05

  It's a very implausible plot hole.

• 1:00:10Speaker 06

  Right.

• 1:00:10Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay, pause for a second. This is a really important thing to understand. So when people are grappling with the Antichrist, from my perspective, what they're talking about is I see a thing that humans do that is so ungodly, that is so literally animalistic, murderous, that I have to understand what that thing is. Like, how can a Genghis Khan exist? How can a Hitler exist? How can a Mao or a Stalin exist? I need to be able to explain that to myself. And as they go to explain it to themselves, they end up telling themselves a false story about how people like that rise to power. But the reality is, history tells us exactly how those people rise to power. And it is always a promise that I'm going to make you safe and secure.

• 1:00:55Tom Bilyeu?

  So we don't have to tell fantastical stories. And that's what Peter is getting at here, is in books where it's like, okay, I'm a writer. I need the Antichrist to take power. Uh, I guess they'll be my sense of what Hitler was like and that, you know, it's the speeches. It's the way he talks. It's the, they just tap into people's emotions and they, they make them, they seduce them. That's true, but they seduce them with something very specific. Hitler never rises to power. We know because he tried to rise to power, uh, before the economy just absolutely got completely obliterated and devastated and he couldn't. And so, once the economy just absolutely got hammered and ironically then started climbing back up, which is the whole thing.

• 1:01:37Tom Bilyeu?

  But in that moment, that's when Hitler was able to come in and say, okay, I know the cause of all your suffering. It's, obviously we know who he points to and they're the bad guys and I'm going to save you from them and everything's going to be better. And, uh, fuck all these guys that are trying to bury us under debt. Nope, we're going to get out from under that. We're going to build our military. We're going to be strong. And so it was all about, I'm going to make things better. I'm going to keep you safe. I'm going to protect you from the vermin. And that is how the, the human that people think so evil, that they are likened to the Antichrist, rise to power. But he's got much more to say.

• 1:02:16Speaker 05

  Sir, to this plot hole, the way the Antichrist would take over the world is you talk about Armageddon non-stop. You talk about existential risk non-stop, and this is what you need to regulate. It's the opposite of the picture of Baconian science from the 17th, 18th century where, you know, the Antichrist is like some evil tech genius, evil scientist who invents this machine to take over the world. People are way too scared for that. Uh, in our world, the thing that has political resonance is the opposite. It is, it is, um, the thing that has political resonance is we need to stop science. We need to just say stop to this. And this is where, yeah, I don't know.

• 1:02:59Speaker 05

  In the 17th century, I can imagine a Dr. Strangelove, Edward Teller type person, taking over the world. In our world, it's far more likely to be Greta Thunberg.

• 1:03:10Tom Bilyeu?

  That is a, I think, a pretty, um, contrarian take that the person that we need to worry about is a Greta Thunberg. But what he's getting at is how do people actually acquire power? And this is why I have a far more radical fear of where the left is currently than I do where the right is currently, though I think they have both become pathological. The reason that I have far deeper fear is about people on the left is this is people who are so convinced that the world is so dangerous, that humans are the cause of all that danger, that they've got to be folded under essentially a world government, that there's going to be a small group of elites that know better. And that is a huge part of this, that there was a small group of elites, they know better, right?

• 1:03:55Tom Bilyeu?

  Hillary Clinton's idea of the deplorables. There's a small group of elites, they know better, they need to be in control. And if they're in control, everything is going to get better. In 2017, Weff put out an article that was titled something like, uh, it's 2030, I own nothing. I have no privacy and I've never been happier, or something like that. The no privacy is a direct quote. And what they're saying is, the small group of elites know so much better than you, that they're going to be able to architect the perfect world. But that isn't what happens. What happens is COVID, where they realize, ah, there's all these inconvenient truths. Humans need to be corralled intellectually and physically. And so if we have to control them intellectually and physically to stop them from hurting themselves supposedly, uh, then that's what we'll do.

• 1:04:39Tom Bilyeu?

  And so we will lie to them, we will deny them certain things that we know to be true, but they just, we, we can't have them understanding it or knowing about it. Uh, we're going to force them via lockdowns or a Chinese social credit score that denies free mobility. Did you know that you can't just move to a given city in China? I mean, I guess technically you can, but you can't like qualify for certain housing and things like that. It's not like America where it's like, I want to live in Beijing. This is why their whatever tier three and four cities still have inhabitants. Cause you have to put in requests to be able to move to the tier one cities. They don't just let anybody move to those cities. That's the wild shit. And so they just control it like that, man.

• 1:05:19Tom Bilyeu?

  And when you're growing at an insane rate, like they are in China, people are like, well, I was destitute and essentially starving to death on my rural, uh, farm in a village in China. And so now, sure, I'm forced to stay in the tier four city, but that's better than where I was. Well, let me tell you how fast people are going to go, wait, I grew up in this tier four city. I don't know anything about the rural starvation. I want to be in a tier one city. And now it's like, no, you can't. And they have to get more and more draconian. And that is a thousand percent where this all goes, which is exactly why America got founded in the first place. Because we were the people that are like, yeah, we want freedom. Yes, it comes with risks, but we're willing to take that trade off because living under somebody else's thumb sucks ass.

• 1:06:01Tom Bilyeu?

  But I think Peter is right, that the thing right now, Americans are so afraid en masse, that they'll a hundred percent clamor to be protected from, whether it's, uh, climate emergency, whether it's AI emergency, um, whether it's, um, I mean, what are, what are some other hot ones? That, uh, we've got too many foreigners, like whatever. You're going to get all of these emergencies that are like, just govern me harder daddy, quote unquote, from Mike Benz. It, it, it's wild. There, there are costs to being free. There are costs.

• 1:06:36Speaker 06

  In those two options. It used to be that the reasonable fear of the Antichrist was a kind of wizard of technology. And now the reasonable fear is someone who promises to control technology, make it safe, and sort of usher in what from your point of view would be a kind of universal stagnation, right?

• 1:06:56Speaker 05

  Well, it's, it's, it's more, that's more my description of how it would happen.

• 1:07:00Speaker 06

  Right.

• 1:07:00Speaker 05

  So I, I think, uh, I think people still have a fear of a 17th century Antichrist. We're still scared of Dr. Strangelove.

• 1:07:07Speaker 06

  Right, but you're saying, you're saying the real Antichrist would say, would play on that fear and say, you must come with me to avoid Skynet, to avoid the Terminator, to avoid nuclear Armageddon.

• 1:07:17Speaker 05

  Yes.

• 1:07:18Speaker 06

  And I guess my view would be, looking at the world right now, that you would need a certain kind of novel technological progress to make that fear concrete.

• 1:07:31Tom Bilyeu?

  You can stop with that. That's the last thing he says that's interesting. So, um, this idea of we would need that, because keep in mind, this is a year and a half ago.

• 1:07:38Speaker 06

  Yeah.

• 1:07:38Tom Bilyeu?

  So the novel technological breakthrough is AI. It is that how far we've come, literally has a lot of people panicking, like good and proper panicking. And I think some of it is just, um, I'm going to lose my job. Some of it is, I'm not going to have meaning and purpose anymore. Some of this is like, if social media and the internet was so deranging to society, what is this going to do? And people are, instead of going, okay, how do we put sensible constraints? They just go all the way to, uh, Bernie Sanders, please stop this, please arrest people that are pursuing this. And that in, when I put on my, okay, what do I have to protect myself from?

• 1:08:21Tom Bilyeu?

  What is going to be the thing that I shout into the void? It really is optimism around America getting its core strength back, of being disciplined, pursuing greatness, uh, trying to turn all of our potential into actual deployable, usable skillset, not succumbing to fear, understanding that yes, we have to be strong, understanding that some of discipline is, um, building discriminatory boundaries around the technology. Uh, you don't just want this stuff being completely unfettered, but recognizing that America was founded on one simple principle. Man, man tends towards tyranny. Once you understand that America was founded on that principle, you understand why we have to protect ourselves from that. Why we don't want our regulators to have too much control.

• 1:09:05Tom Bilyeu?

  Why we have to be extremely paranoid about the ideological stance of the regulators. Why we have to be extremely careful of letting scope creep slip into government and let government get bigger and bigger and bigger. It's incredibly dangerous. It's incredibly dangerous to human thriving. It's not like incredibly dangerous in the abstract. It will begin to drain the lifeblood out of the economy because more and more people are sucked up by the government. It will begin draining our ability to innovate because there are more and more regulations that stop the young upstart kid who has a brilliant idea from getting started because it just becomes too expensive. And you start sliding back towards this literal like cementing of the K-shaped economy, which was England, basically all throughout its history until they finally started to wrestle

• 1:09:50Tom Bilyeu?

  control away from the aristocrats. It's like, we don't want to go back there. We don't want to create that class of person where it becomes like, uh, people start viewing it as a hereditary thing. We've, the thing that has made America great was like us shouting into the void, the world over, saying, hey, everybody, uh, we don't have any, um, social protections for you. So it's going to be fucking hard here, but you can come here and take your shot. And then some people came and just died. Some people came and then were like, damn, this is way too hard and left. And then other people stayed and really built something extraordinary, but it was built on the back of like, I'm, I'm, I'm him. I'm himathy. I'm going to come here and take my shot and I'm going to try to get better.

• 1:10:30Tom Bilyeu?

  And I'm perfectly happy to duke it out in the free markets. And then just slowly over time, we lost that sense of like, why we were able to galvanize what I call foreign born Americans, the world over, get them here to build a country that had a coherent identity. Now we're putting out a totally different call, which is come here, we feel guilty for our imperialism. And so we're going to take care of everybody and just let it, you know, absolutely cannibalize the system. Uh, we're self-loathing. I mean, it's really, really wild. So be disciplined, be focused, turn potential into actual skillset, build an economy that is thriving and that has a, um, not preference for, but make sure

• 1:11:12Tom Bilyeu?

  that all obstacles for the little guy are pushed out of the way through antitrust and otherwise. And yet we're living in the AI age where it's like, we're actively talking about giving these businesses an antitrust waiver. That's so crazy.

• 1:11:25Speaker 03

  Well, a Chinese billionaire is trying to build his own economy, who he has allegedly been surrogating more than a hundred kids. To be honest, I'm not mad at it. If I'm a billionaire and like a hundred kids, I'd rather you use your money on children than on, you know, machines that are going to kill us all.

• 1:11:39Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay, let's, let's push that. So now, how do you feel about, um, if,

• 1:11:48Tom Bilyeu?

  if that person is loyal to the Chinese Communist Party? And they understand that we have birthright citizenship? And they're going to essentially repatriate these kids back to China, raise them in China, send them here for education, let's say, so 18, and then leave them here. Would you still be like, yeah, word?

• 1:12:11Speaker 03

  Is there like a button he's going to press and turn them on to like spies?

• 1:12:13Tom Bilyeu?

  Like, no, and some percentage of them are going to hate him and all that. And so it'll be a mixed bag. He probably won't send the ones that hate him back to the US. But it's like, if you raise, if you grow up the child of a billionaire, the odds are that you suckle on that teat forever. So if dad says you go to America, you go to America. If dad says you don't go to America, you don't go to America. So he's going to send the diehard ones over here, the ones that drank deeply. This is a thought exercise. I don't know this guy from Adam. But, um, would, would your feelings on the surrogacy change from this is about having more kids to this is about birthright citizenship? And that makes me nervous.

• 1:12:52Speaker 03

  No, it wouldn't change.

• 1:12:53Tom Bilyeu?

  Interesting. Yeah. Okay. For me, it completely flips the script. Now, is that because you think having kids is so important? We gotta get all these single women pregnant?

• 1:13:02Speaker 03

  I like having kids. I'm team kids. I have a kid. So, um,

• 1:13:06Tom Bilyeu?

  Can you raise properly a hundred kids?

• 1:13:08Speaker 03

  No, of course not. But you have a billion dollars. So you have a lot, a closer chance to.

• 1:13:12Tom Bilyeu?

  So better to raise kids a little bit more poorly.

• 1:13:17Speaker 03

  He's raising him like a school system. So with a hundred kids.

• 1:13:19Tom Bilyeu?

  Is he? Okay, this is thought exercise.

• 1:13:21Speaker 03

  Yeah, dog. I say a hundred kids, I have a billion dollars. Theoretically, if I raise them all together, now that they're surrogates, I'm assuming that once they're born, they now fly under his umbrella.

• 1:13:31Tom Bilyeu?

  Yes.

• 1:13:31Speaker 03

  They are coming. Okay. So then now I have a facility that has about a hundred of kids together. I can raise it like a commune. What you need, a couple, a couple acres, a couple teachers.

• 1:13:41Tom Bilyeu?

  How many women are you putting in there?

• 1:13:42Speaker 03

  You need at least, you need at least five teachers. So that's a one to 20 ratio. That's a standard classroom size.

• 1:13:49Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay.

• 1:13:49Speaker 03

  And then you'll probably need another five or 10 for staff, cleaning, janitorial effort, stuff like that. He's not reading everyone a good bedtime story.

• 1:13:57Tom Bilyeu?

  Right.

• 1:13:57Speaker 03

  They're intermingling with each other. So now there's a community of the children there. I'm sure there's some propaganda, uh, movie that he plays every night for them. So all a hundred gather into some type of warehouse box and they'd be like, oh, dad's going to play so and so. And he says, I love you, children. And then they all go to sleep at night.

• 1:14:13Tom Bilyeu?

  I can't remember if it's the Czech Republic or Romania, or maybe some third that I'm forgetting, but during, I think it was World War II, um, there were orphanages where the kids were taken away from their parents and they finally had to shut it down because they realized these kids were failing to thrive. So some, meaning that's a technical term for basically a kid just dies and they don't know why. And so all these kids were like completely fucked up, even the ones that lived.

• 1:14:37Speaker 07

  Like it was Nazi Germany, I think.

• 1:14:39Tom Bilyeu?

  No, no, definitely wasn't Germany. It might've been Nazi controlled, but I forget what country it was.

• 1:14:44Speaker 07

  Cause this is saying Germanization of Lebens, oh, it's called the Lebensborn Program from the SS and it hunted for children with blonde hair, blue eyes and traits. And

• 1:14:54Tom Bilyeu?

  I think we might be conflating two different things.

• 1:14:56Speaker 07

  Okay.

• 1:14:56Tom Bilyeu?

  But anyway, so the, um, the idea being that if you don't raise kids with a, at least a, somebody acting in the role of parent, meaning skin to skin contact, they're hugging them, they're showing them love. It's wild, but they'll actually, a certain percentage of them will die and then the other ones won't develop properly. So anyway, this is a thought exercise. Obviously I'm sure this guy's a way better strategy for that. And there's going to be all kinds of women hugging and cuddling and all of that. And it'll be wonderful. Uh, my concern is about the birthright citizenship thing. I don't, people aren't taking it seriously enough. Uh, and I think that that, when we talk about load bearing, um, base assumptions, people have a base assumption that America, um, is not a coherent culture. So it doesn't matter how many people you bring here. And if America does have

• 1:15:41Tom Bilyeu?

  a coherent culture, it is something like, um, gun toting rednecks that scream America. And so fuck that culture. And so we need, um, better stock. And so let's bring people in from all over the world. And that to me is deranged and it will break the country. And so on that front, I think people have to be way more thoughtful about, we need to articulate what our culture is and then decide what are the methods that people can abuse that, because people have reason to want to take down the, the big kid on the block. So, um, it isn't like our enemies won't use anything they can to destabilize us. Uh, and so I'm confused by how people look at that and don't think, okay, wait,

• 1:16:25Tom Bilyeu?

  there are people in their parliament that scream death to America. Um, China has said that they're basically going to get out from under America, grow to be dismissive of America. We know that the US and every other country on planet earth that can pull it off is sending spies to other countries to figure out what's really going on at the ground level. Uh, we know that the sleeper cells are real and they will get activated later in life. So it's like, you start putting all that together and it's like, wait a second. Why do we not want to at least protect ourselves from that? So.

• 1:16:55Speaker 03

  I think in 2026, the spy network looks a lot differently, where I think in the 1960s, it made sense that you had to nationalize somebody, that they had to live in the neighborhood and walk around to see what is going on. Americans are putting their entire life on TikTok. So I think we could do just as much of the espionage without the paperwork.

• 1:17:12Tom Bilyeu?

  You're post the other side of the, um, the, uh, algorithm on that. But if, if what you mean is that they can manipulate us through the algorithm, that I will certainly grant you.

• 1:17:22Speaker 03

  Yeah.

• 1:17:23Tom Bilyeu?

  But that's worse. That just means there's another attack vector.

• 1:17:26Speaker 03

  Yeah. I just think that attack vector has kind of blossomed into the other ones. Just like with warfare, nobody stands across the playing field anymore. It says one, two, three, go. And they run at each other with like swords and shields.

• 1:17:37Tom Bilyeu?

  What do you mean? Of course they do. So if you look at Ukraine, the, the whole comment is this is World War One slamming into Battlestar Galactica. It's like you've got all these drones flying around, but you have real people dug into trenches using dogs to attack the other side. Like this is fucking gnarly, hand to hand. Like kill as many as you can with the drones, but then run over and kill the rest with your hands. Like it's this wild trench warfare.

• 1:18:03Speaker 03

  Uh, yeah. Trench warfare is still different than what I was talking about. I'm talking about like Troy, Roman Empire, like, yes. So as warfare evolves, so the spy tactics evolve. That, that's my point.

• 1:18:14Tom Bilyeu?

  Yes.

• 1:18:14Speaker 03

  Yes.

• 1:18:15Tom Bilyeu?

  But are you saying that it's not an attack vector? You don't think that physical humans just crossed the border during the Biden administration precisely to be sleeper cells? You don't think that's real?

• 1:18:26Speaker 03

  Maybe I have to wait for the terrorist attack and then I can say you were right, Tom. I should have been more eye opened.

• 1:18:31Tom Bilyeu?

  Interesting. Wow. Okay. Hey, base assumption, base assumption.

• 1:18:33Speaker 03

  I think you could pay your way into this administration. I don't think we no longer have to cross borders to do all that manipulation. That's like the 1960s model of like, I need to secretly infiltrate America so that way nobody knows.

• 1:18:43Tom Bilyeu?

  But is your base assumption that adversaries go, I'm only going to deploy my resources against whatever the single most efficient way of doing this is. I'm not going to do all of them.

• 1:18:54Speaker 03

  Yes. And I think that adversaries are worried about their next move. And there is no longer this blanket, I'm just keeping track of stuff.

• 1:19:01Tom Bilyeu?

  Interesting. Well, we do not share that basis.

• 1:19:03Speaker 03

  Yeah, I feel like America's movement in the overall hegemony standards does not warrant that anymore. There's probably people who are infiltrating our bases in Jordan. There are people infiltrating our bases in the Middle East. There are people that are infiltrating our bases in other countries. But to come to America to see on the ground what America is doing, I feel like they can have that.

• 1:19:23Tom Bilyeu?

  Let me tell you what I think is happening. I think what we've got going on is a good adversary looks at all of your attack vectors. And they say, I'm going to go after each and every one of these. And if you're leaving your border open, then I'm going to send a ton of people in. As many people as I can get into your country, I'm going to send them. I've got more people that are loyal to me that are there. I can put on payroll. I can get information. They're on the ground. Should I ever want to activate them? Yes or no? I'm looking at America and realizing you guys are easy to tear apart ideologically. So I'm going to pit each other against you. I see that you have a value system that's all about liberalism. So I'm going to make sure that I come in and have people spouting an ideology that makes you more compliant to the way that I want the world to be. I'm going to weaken you by getting your people scared so that you shoot yourself in the foot

• 1:20:07Tom Bilyeu?

  from an energy policy perspective, shoot yourself in the foot from a AI perspective. I'm going to get you guys just to tear each other apart. Oh, by the way, if I'm Iran and I realize that a left-leaning government is way more advantageous to me economically in my country than a right-leaning government, then I'm going to just nakedly say, hey, I'm going to make sure that you lose at the midterms. I'm going to do everything that I can, which is exactly what they're saying and doing. And so they're trying to make sure that there's a growing wedge between the left and the right. And so if they also see an attack vector where it's like, oh, you guys have the same birthright citizenship, say less. I'm going to send people over just to have a kid, then they're going to bounce back out. I'm going to surrogate have kids because I can, can afford to pay for it.

• 1:20:52Tom Bilyeu?

  Then send them back to my country, raise them there, indoctrinate them, then send them back at a time of my choosing. They're going to do all of those attack vectors. And any country that isn't trying to defend itself from these things is a fool, especially when it's so easy to defend yourself from these things. And we are choosing not to do it, which is crazy. But that is the state of things right now. America has completely lost the realization that they must define their values. We just don't. And so we don't have anything that is like, this is America. This is what we stand for. And this is the thing from which all of our laws and policies are going to be derived from. We've just completely abandoned that whole idea because things have gone so well for so long.

• 1:21:36Tom Bilyeu?

  And then we don't educate people anymore because it's far easier to control a dumb populace. It's not why we're doing it, but it's a certainly very useful side effect.

• 1:21:44Speaker 03

  To Koya Hall in the chat said they could just bribe a cop and take all the flock footage if they really need it. So yeah, we're good. We're good there. All right, let's jump over to the Lindsay Clancy trial. It's so interesting that now that Lindsay Clancy has to go back to trial. Everybody's talking about the juror and no longer about the trial. But the jurors that have been out here, they've been deliberating. They've been talking to the CBS and all these other places. This is her admitting that she is part of a runaway jury.

• 1:22:09Speaker 08

  We knew that this was a turning point. And this would be something that could change something to make it better for other women in the future, for other families, you know, justice for those children.

• 1:22:25Tom Bilyeu?

  All right, everybody, you cannot live in a world where you have activist jurors. The whole idea is that they're sworn in to be impartial. And when you have people that are going in with a political agenda, all hope is lost. The very thing that we have to be scanning for when you're selecting jurors is that they are not coming in with any preconceived notions about the trial. That's one of the first things that they should be asking these people. And if those people are being honest, then they should be only on the jury if they can say honestly that, yeah, I don't have any preconceived notions about this. I can be completely impartial. I can listen to the evidence and then make a decision based on the evidence and the rules of the courtroom.

• 1:23:06Tom Bilyeu?

  These guys are admitting that isn't what they were doing, that they were obviously paying attention to social media. If they had a sense of like, what's going on, how this is going to be something that'll be useful to supposedly future women. I'm not sure why we're thinking about protecting future women instead of making sure that kids are safe. Let's not lose sight of the fact that three kids were murdered by their parent and that we need to make sure that there are repercussions for that. And so when you have a predetermined outcome that you're trying to get to, then justice isn't being served. This is so crazy to me. And the fact that like all of this firestorm around this is being whipped up around this one juror

• 1:23:49Tom Bilyeu?

  who was saying, listen, I'm not willing to hand that verdict down. Now, I think there's a reasonable debate to be had about the claims that they have made, that he said, I do have reasonable doubt. Now, you're supposed to be beyond a reasonable doubt. They have proven beyond a reasonable doubt that XYZ, whatever the case is. And so if he had reasonable doubt, that's something certainly to debate whether he was just trying to be obstinate or he had a predetermined conclusion that he was trying to reach. But the fact that the jurors that are actually talking out loud are saying straight up on camera that we had a political agenda that we were trying to get to is crazy. And the predefined political agenda that they were trying to get to is absolutely abhorrent.

• 1:24:32Tom Bilyeu?

  I cannot believe people are saying with a straight face that somebody does not have responsibility, that either they got caught up in their hormones and postpartum depression is just a get out of jail free. Like quite literally a get out of jail, jail free card. That is pure lunacy. Or that they were prescribed a drug and that drug was making them crazy as if the person doesn't have responsibility for what drugs they take or not take. And to see that we have a, I'm taking this, this isn't making me feel better. And so people just keep going down that path. She was conniving enough to get her husband out of the house so that she could kill the kids. That means she could have gotten somebody to take the kids away from her because she could see, oh, I'm going down a dark path. Like this stuff is wild.

• 1:25:17Tom Bilyeu?

  So I really can't believe that these guys are not having the full weight of the law coming down on them for obviously not acting in good faith as jurors. I'm pretty sure you have to take an oath to get on the jury, that you solemnly swear that you have, that you can be impartial.

• 1:25:36Speaker 03

  It's time to abolish jury duty. That is my state. No more jury duty.

• 1:25:41Tom Bilyeu?

  Do you really believe that?

• 1:25:42Speaker 03

  No, I don't.

• 1:25:42Tom Bilyeu?

  Okay, I was going to say, that's wild.

• 1:25:44Speaker 03

  I was trying to get out of it. That's it. I just got busy next week, State of California.

• 1:25:48Tom Bilyeu?

  Listen, being, being on a jury does not sound like a lot of fun. But nonetheless, if you're on a jury, you cannot have political motive, man. Like imagine being on the other side of this, that you're the person in court and you can't trust that you're going to get a fair shake. That, that is absolutely terrifying. There was another thing this weekend that I saw where there was this woman who I, I cannot understand what her agenda was. But there was a female DNA expert who was lying and saying that there was no DNA found in the sample and then throwing it out. And these guys were getting, my understanding is that guys were getting off of like sexual assault cases and stuff because she was saying that there was no DNA sample.

• 1:26:31Tom Bilyeu?

  And now I don't know if other ones were where she was saying that there was somebody else's DNA and she lied about that and then wrongful conviction happened. But they're saying now that there's over 400 sexual assaults that were in the mix, that there's some obscene case. Colorado is now retesting more than 1,000 cases that fell under her. And so an intern, I guess, ended up catching her. And then concerns were raised more than a decade before that. And she just kept testing rape kits anyway. I mean, this is crazy. And so I don't know what the agenda was, but that is insane to me. So 1,045 of her cases are tainted over a 29-year career as a star expert.

• 1:27:15Tom Bilyeu?

  Man, that, that is legitimately terrifying that the, some cog in that system would be, would have their own agenda and then the wrong people are going to jail or in the Lindsay Clancy case, not going to jail?

• 1:27:31Speaker 03

  No, yeah, mistrial. She'll have her, she'll have her opportunity.

• 1:27:34Tom Bilyeu?

  I mean, fingers crossed we can actually get an impartial jury.

• 1:27:37Speaker 03

  Yeah. All right, let's finish what she said on this one.

• 1:27:41Speaker 08

  Is this never happening again?

• 1:27:45Speaker 09

  And Devlin also talked to me about the impact this has had on her own mental health. She said during the weak song trial, she would walk to a park or the beach during lunch, and she just couldn't bear to look at the families around her. She says, guys, she's still having a hard time.

• 1:27:59Tom Bilyeu?

  What does that mean? That she can't look at the families around her? I don't understand that. So, um, yeah, the, every time I hear one of these jurors speak, it's just weirder and weirder. Uh, yeah, to me, this is a state of the culture in the U.S. That you can't find a jury pool that is, um, not ideologically captured. That's terrifying.

• 1:28:23Speaker 03

  And then in some positive news, at least for the gamers in the chat, there's a study that reviewed that gaming actually improves cognitive and mental health.

• 1:28:35Speaker 03

  Exercise and video gaming. So there you go.

• 1:28:37Tom Bilyeu?

  I'm telling you right now that the kind of hand-eye coordination, mental engagement, problem solving that you have to do in video games is for sure going to have a positive impact on the brain. Now, you can't just say, oh, video games are good for people. Let them play as much as possible. Like anything, video games also can have an addictive quality. As somebody who, uh, makes video games for a living, I'm telling you right now, you've got to be very thoughtful when developing a video game. And then players cannot abdicate their responsibility. So if you're a kid, your parents need to keep an eye on how much you're playing. If you're an adult, have some fucking discipline. But yes, the fact that there are advantages to playing games does not surprise me at all. Modern games are so, uh, fascinating from a cognitive standpoint.

• 1:29:22Tom Bilyeu?

  There are so many different kinds of games that are going to tap into different regions of the brain, whether it's strategy, problem solving, spatial relations, uh, memory, planning. It's really, really impressive. And as game technology gets better and better, you can expect these games to get more engaging and more effective at helping people develop real skills. It's very interesting. So yeah, I'm not super surprised by this. Uh, we'll see how much farther this can get pushed by the industry. But as with anything, first of all, early days, you're going to need to see more studies come out before, uh, kids start taking this to their doctor and saying, you gotta prescribe me more games. But this is very encouraging, early signs for something that's been vilified for so long.

• 1:30:07Tom Bilyeu?

  Cause when I was a kid, my parents, like, they, they were just, the whole loop was, it's gonna rot your brain, it's gonna rot your brain. It's why my parents would not let me, um, have a game system until I could buy it myself. Uh, so yeah, I'm still bitter about that one, as you may detect. But yeah, very interesting early data. Shout out to all my gamers out there. Getting brighter by the second.

• 1:30:28Speaker 03

  Yeah, I was talking to a group of friends yesterday and the consensus, a bunch of people are still excited for like GTA 6, even people who don't necessarily even play GTA and like video games and stuff like that. But everybody had their like ears peeked for that.

• 1:30:39Tom Bilyeu?

  It's got so much hype, man. It'll be very, very interesting. I'll certainly be playing it.

• 1:30:43Speaker 03

  All right. And there have been reports, um, this is based from, uh, puberty, uh, puberty.

• 1:30:48Tom Bilyeu?

  I was gonna say, this is from puberty. Let's go.

• 1:30:50Speaker 03

  Mom Donnie's being sued by the National Supermarket Association for trying to open five state-funded grocery stores with reasonable prices. Supermarkets claim they can't compete with Mom Donnie's prices and that those, these stores shouldn't be allowed.

• 1:31:04Tom Bilyeu?

  I hate everything about the way that puberty phrased that. These guys obviously are Team Mom Donnie here. Uh, so they're making it sound like the National Supermarket Association is some unhinged group that just doesn't want to see your prices go down. This isn't how this game works. The way that the economy is structured, if you start messing with the price structure, you collapse the supply chain, which makes things harder to get and more expensive. It does not make things better. Look at the natural experiment of East and West, uh, Berlin. It was clear as day, on the side where the government is trying to control the price structure, it becomes impossible for people to innovate, for prices to go down. Everything stagnates.

• 1:31:46Tom Bilyeu?

  They had a limited number of things on the shelf. Uh, the quality of the product stayed stagnant for decades. Whereas on the side where the free market was allowed to reign, the way that you get your mustard on the shelf or your eggs on the shelf or your chicken on the shelf is you innovate at some place in the chain. You either innovate from a quality perspective, you innovate from a distribution perspective, but you do something that allows you to get more people to buy your product. You make it cheaper, uh, you make it better. But if you're doing it simply by taking taxpayer dollars, subsidizing it to make it cheaper, you've now removed the innovation impulse and you've made it harder for other companies that have been trying to just innovate to compete, you've made it impossible for them to stay in business

• 1:32:28Tom Bilyeu?

  because you've artificially stolen their own tax dollars to weaponize against them. This is so patently absurd. Yeah, this one, guys, for real, please, I beg of you.

• 1:32:39Speaker 03

  I thought you caught yourself.

• 1:32:40Tom Bilyeu?

  No, no, no. I really, really want people to hear me. All things in life can be boiled down to what are the mechanisms? This one you can understand at a mechanism level. And the, the way that people respond to this, like with this arrogant, flippant attitude of like, oh, these guys just don't want to see your groceries get cheaper. Bullshit. Groceries have gotten cheaper and cheaper and cheaper to the point of being a modern fucking miracle that you can get fruit off-season for pennies? It's absolutely insane that we've managed to pull all this off. And we've managed to pull it off because of the free market. We have not managed to pull this off

• 1:33:22Tom Bilyeu?

  because you're getting government subsidies. Government subsidies derange things in ways that people do not understand. Let me, let me give you one example that I know intimately. How did I get wealthy? You could actually boil this down to a key insight. And the key insight was that the government had been subsidizing corn for so long that corn was so cheap that everybody was making sugar using high fructose corn syrup. Why? Corn is such a random fucking place to get sugar from. You do it because the government was making it artificially cheap. So it's like, okay, well, we'll just run this through this weird ass process and it comes out with a certain viscosity. Now, for 70 years or whatever that the government had been subsidizing corn,

• 1:34:05Tom Bilyeu?

  we had people then using to get sugar in their product, high fructose corn syrup, which that viscosity gave the products a certain, um, tolerance in the machinery. And so for 70 years, machinery was built, assuming that you were going to use high fructose corn syrup, which is terrible for you. Terrible, terrible. If you want to understand why America is in the kind of health crisis that it's in, it is partly due to the obsessive use of high fructose corn syrup. And so when Quest came along, we were like, well, we want our bars to actually be good for you. So we can't have high fructose corn syrup. We came face to face with why nobody had made that bar before us. Because all of the equipment assumed you had high fructose corn syrup. When you remove that, the bars just wouldn't produce.

• 1:34:50Tom Bilyeu?

  So we had to then go engineer our own equipment. And that becomes one of the ways that we just end up running away like a freight train. When you let the government subsidize things, there are all of these deranging bizarre consequences that end up being a knock on effect down the line. Let the free market do what the free market does. I'm not saying no regulation, but I'm saying you don't live in a world with too few regulations. You don't live in a world where capitalism has let you down. You live in a world where money in politics has fucked you up through regulatory capture, where you have socialized everything. Banks, corporations, individuals. Our money is being spent in the most ridiculous way. What we need to get back to is capitalism.

• 1:35:35Tom Bilyeu?

  We need to get back to free markets, not libertarian free markets, not anarchy, lightly regulated, less government. Make sure there's no, uh, you know, big trust being built up monopolies. You don't want that. You want to make sure that you regulate, that you antitrust, no monopolies. You want the little guy to be able to come in and take things by storm and innovate and build something incredible. If you do that, your prices are going to keep falling. The quality is going to keep getting better. If you don't do that, then you're going to get to the point where we're at now, where people are voting for somebody who's going to break the entire mechanism that makes the system work. Find the mechanism. Find the mechanism. It will tell you where the answers lie.

• 1:36:23Speaker 03

  All right, we'll see the, we'll follow the status of that lawsuit and see what goes. For a lot of, uh, crap that Mom Donnie's getting about, he's gonna give everything away for free. He has been muted. He hasn't given anything away for free in a very long time. So.

• 1:36:36Tom Bilyeu?

  Listen, he's going to run his systems. He's gonna try to make things cheaper and cheaper and it won't matter to him that it's artificial. And that is the thing that is absolutely infuriating from my perspective, is where we have raised multiple generations to think that you can just get things for free. Skim off the top of, uh, taxes and just put it to whatever, which then creates massive amounts of fraud, massive amounts of inefficiency, a government bureaucracy that looks like the bureaucracy in education. We are failing our kids. We are taking on debt at a level that is so astronomical and everybody wants more free shit. Nobody wants to be disciplined. And since politics are downstream of culture, we just vote for the person that's like, yeah, I'm gonna give you more free shit.

• 1:37:19Tom Bilyeu?

  We, we, we, we, we, we, the voters, the voters, we've got to snap out of it. The politicians are just gonna do what we vote for. And so if they see that we keep voting for more free shit, whether that's, uh, I want more military, just you gotta give it to me, bigger and better. I want more, uh, defense contractor dollars, whatever. We can have all the defense contractor dollars we want, but we've got to not pay for something else. If we want all the free healthcare in the world, all the free childcare in the world, great, you can have it, but you gotta stop paying for something else. Or you've got to keep inflating people into oblivion. Every time you hear cheaper groceries, understand you're saying, make that K bigger. Every time you hear free childcare, you're making the K bigger. You've got to show me what you're gonna stop paying for in order to pay for that new thing.

• 1:38:05Tom Bilyeu?

  Love you guys bunches. It is a wild time out there in the world. We want to be a beacon of hope and remembrance that all of us can get better at whatever it is that we're focused on. And we can bring some light to the world by making contact with cause and effect, boys and girls, cause and effect. What are the mechanisms by which this all works? And speaking of mechanisms, I'm doing another AI masterclass Thursday, October 8th at 1:00 PM Pacific. I hope you will join me there. It is free and I will show you how to use AI in a very efficient manner to launch a company. Thursday, October 8th, 1:00 PM Pacific. Link is in the description. Again, it's free. All right. Love you guys. We'll see you on Wednesday. Until then, my friends, be legendary. Take care. Peace. Let's talk about a pattern that is guaranteed to be killing your progress.

• 1:38:47Tom Bilyeu?

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• 1:39:28Tom Bilyeu?

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