Don't Fear the Demise: Raoul Pal's Playbook for the Exponential Age

Welcome back to another thought-provoking episode of Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu. Today, we continue our groundbreaking conversation with macro investor and visionary thinker Raoul Pal, exploring the seismic technological revolution reshaping our world. In this episode, Raoul Pal breaks down why artificial intelligence represents the ultimate leap in human advancement—and why investing in technology right now may be more crucial than ever. From the fundamentals of network effects and exponential growth, to the unprecedented speed of AI adoption and its implications for markets, capital allocation, and societal productivity, this episode dives deep into how the coming economic and technological supercycle could redefine wealth, work, and global competition. We examine the optimism and risks inherent in this transformation, and what it means for investors, governments, and everyday people. Strap in as we debate the future of intelligence, productivity, and how to navigate this new era—whether with caution or conviction. Let’s dive in. 00:00 Intro 00:30 AI and Metcalfe's Law explained 04:57 OpenAI and rapid user growth 12:13 Managing Crypto Investment Volatility 29:01 Economic impacts of AI and robots 32:16 Automation impact on labor force 44:58 Understanding liquidity and euro-dollar debt 51:37 Embracing unstoppable change What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here: Want my help starting a business? Join me here inside Zero To Founder https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show Sign up for my AI Masterclass: AI Masterclass https://tombilyeu.com/ai-masterclass?utm_campaign=Live%20Masterclass&utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=evergreen FOLLOW TOM: Instagram:https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok:https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter:https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu Cash App: Download Cash App Today: https://capl.onelink.me/vFut/v6nymgjl#CashAppPod *Cash App is a financial services platform, not a bank. Banking services provided by Cash App’s bank partner(s). Prepaid debit cards issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Cash App Visa® Debit Flex Cards issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC, and The Bancorp Bank, N. A., pursuant to a license from Visa U. S. A. Inc. See terms and conditions for the Sutton prepaid card, Sutton debit flex card, and Bancorp debit flex card. Cash App Green features, Savings, Direct deposit, Round ups, Overdraft coverage and Discounts provided by Cash App, a Block, Inc. brand. Visit cash.app/legal/podcast http://cash.app/legal/podcast for full disclosure. Quince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpod Whatnot: Download the Whatnot app today and get free shipping on your first order. Surfshark: Go to https://surfshark.com/TOMBor use code TOMB at checkout to get 4 extra months of Surfshark! ATT Business: Switch to AT&T Business at business.att.com http://business.att.com Horizon.ai: Go to https://horizon3.ai/IMPACTTHEORY and request your free NodeZero demo. No commitment required. Results in hours, not weeks. Quo: Try for free PLUS get 20% off your first 6 months at https://quo.com/impact Incogni: Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code IMPACT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/impact Pique: 20% off at https://piquelife.com/impact Shopify: Own your customer relationships. Own your revenue. Start with a free trial at https://shopify.com/impact Ketone IQ: Visit https://ketone.com/IMPACT for 30% OFF your subscription order See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

• 0:00Speaker 00

  Let's talk about the moment your side hustle becomes a real business. Now, I see way too many founders stay stuck running their business like it's a hobby. And then they wonder why nothing ever feels real. It doesn't feel real because it's not. I've helped thousands of entrepreneurs build real businesses through Impact Theory University. And the first step in the path to building a legit business is registering it. And Taylor Brands will help you do just that in a few clicks. An LLC, a limited liability company, is an official business structure. It's inexpensive to form and very simple to maintain. It's how you open a business bank account. It's how customers know they're dealing with a real company. And Taylor Brands doesn't stop at the filing.

• 0:45Speaker 00

  Their dashboard tracks what comes next based on what your business actually needs. So EIN number, registered agent, licenses and permits, bookkeeping, business banking. I tell every founder the same thing. Just make it official. Click the link in the show notes to check out Taylor Brands and get started on your business today. This is a paid advertisement. Welcome back to part two of this incredible conversation. Without further ado, here we go. How are you investing through what is obviously the biggest technological revolution in human history?

• 1:21Speaker 01

  I have a framework, which is that the universe, markets and everything we do solves for output of intelligence per unit of energy.

• 1:31Speaker 01

  This is one of the reasons why we have seen technology stocks just outperform everything. And this is why crypto, which is also part of the same idea, outperformed everything over time. So it's been for me that basis. I think this is a super cycle.

• 1:48Speaker 00

  Is the technology is sort of the ultimate thing that this has all been aimed at? And therefore it can't get big enough?

• 1:55Speaker 01

  It can never get big enough. It just keeps attracting more capital because it's the highest use of that capital. And it has the most output in terms of returns, but also for humanity. You know, the humanity scale of what is happening right now. You know, people don't realize, I mean, AI is easily the greatest discovery humanity will ever make. Because we've created intelligence. We've put electricity through silicon, through sand and created intelligence. All intelligence in the past was putting electricity through carbon. Now electricity through sand is a million times faster.

• 2:40Speaker 01

  So the silicon substrate is a million times faster than the biological substrate. Which is why we can't compete, is which why we feel so far behind all the time. And that's creating not Metcalfe's law, but Reed's law, which is Metcalfe's law squared. And it's the fastest adoption of anything, not any technology. Reed's law doesn't even exist in biology.

• 3:04Speaker 00

  Okay, I knew we would eventually get to Reed's law. I did not expect it this fast. So let's lay a marker for people. So one, there's going to be two visions that are going to compete in this interview. So mine will be paranoia, historically grounded. Nothing ever goes up forever, even if only because humans panic and run for the doors. You have debt mechanisms and things to think about. We'll debate that when we get there. Then you've got the far more optimistic view that you have, which is always sort of where you and I are as archetypes in this conversation, that you said AI can never get big enough because this is sort of the ultimate expression of what the universe is attempting to do.

• 3:47Speaker 00

  So capital is going to flow there because it is the right place for capital to go. Okay, now you've, you're very famous for Metcalfe's law, which is the power of networks. So they grow exponentially or the value of them grows exponentially. Walk me through what a double exponential actually means. Like, how do I even wrap my head around that?

• 4:11Speaker 01

  So if we think of the internet as Metcalfe's law, the value of the internet is basically the number of people using it, the number of connections that they have. And formally, it's like the number of the nodes in the network squared or something like that. But it doesn't matter. Basically, for a simple idea is the more people in a network doing valuable things, the more valuable the network is. Makes total sense. Now, when you build another system on top of something already growing at Metcalfe's law, you can get this double exponential. So to put it in simple terms, AI is basically a compression of every single thing that exists on the internet.

• 4:54Speaker 01

  And more, you know, if you think about AI, Tesla, self-driving is everything it sees in the streets. Or Google will have everything it sees on every video that's ever been created on YouTube. You know, there's a lot going into this, vast amounts of data. What you're doing now is you're compounding information, running it through a silicon substrate, which is faster than anything we've seen. As silicon chips get better and better, and which is why Nvidia is so powerful and all of that stuff. And what you end up with is a double exponential. So double exponentials are not natural, or they weren't natural. They've never existed.

• 5:32Speaker 01

  People talked about it as like Reddit sub threads would be built on top of Reddit and they were Reed's law. I don't believe that, but this is provably so. So provably so is Anthropic's revenue scaling is the fastest of any company in human history by an order of magnitude. Now they'll do, they'll do something like a hundred billion in revenues this year from 18 months ago of zero.

• 6:03Speaker 00

  So crazy.

• 6:05Speaker 01

  Then we look at OpenAI. So before OpenAI, another technology built on the internet was cryptocurrencies and blockchains. They scaled faster than the internet itself because they have this incentive mechanism of, of the network having actual value that you can invest in.

• 6:24Speaker 01

  So that was the fastest adoption of any technology the world's ever seen. And anybody who's ever seen me on your show have heard me say that a lot. Then AI came out and it got to 100 million users in a week.

• 6:37Speaker 01

  And now OpenAI has a billion users and Gemini has a billion users. I know what Meta's got, maybe 300 million users, maybe 500 million users, even though nobody really thinks of Meta really as having cracked it. And then you've got Anthropic and everybody else, and then the Chinese labs. I mean, this is stupid. And we wonder why we feel left behind. We don't understand it. We can't keep on top of it. It's because it's moving faster than we can comprehend. We have no way, exponentials are hard enough. Double exponentials are impossible.

• 7:13Speaker 00

  From a philosophical view of looking at why AI is ultimately going to be the substrate through which we engage with our lives, whether that's a smart refrigerator, a smart blender, having it help me with my homework, whatever, that you've answered that, I think, very, very clear. Where my paranoia comes in and the reason that I look at Buffett as he's backing away, not exiting entirely, but certainly backing away, saying, hmm, I don't think that people are investing in a sensible way. That resonates with me because I look at something like

• 7:48Speaker 01

  Although he just did add to his Google position.

• 7:52Speaker 00

  Yes, but he also just backed out of his Apple position. He's sitting on more what people refer to as cash, you know, historic levels. And now for me, I just look very simply at the Cape ratio. And when I see the average has been 16 to 17 X and we're now sitting at 40 X, meaning the revenues that are actually generated by, let's just round it to the S and P 500 versus what people value the S and P 500 at have become not a historic, but we're reaching historic highs that we haven't seen since the dot com bubble burst. And I go, okay, I believe the technology.

• 8:34Speaker 00

  I believe everything that you've just said in terms of its importance, its inevitability, all true.

• 8:39Speaker 01

  Is it priced right?

• 8:40Speaker 00

  Is it priced right? And right now, we've already seen OpenAI plateau. So if you were just all in on OpenAI, you're probably going to get hurt unless you start adjusting. The same thing could happen to Anthropic because yes, its revenues are growing at an insane rate, but it's still burning capital faster than it's generating the revenue. And so I go, hey, despite the inevitability, there are going to be people that get hurt economically as we repeat the historical pattern of every revolutionary technology ends up taking on debt to the point where it wipes out the first round of investors.

• 9:25Speaker 00

  And then it's the inheritance generation of investors that actually make the money.

• 9:29Speaker 01

  So there's a number of things within that. Firstly, the Cape ratio, just don't forget debasement. Debasement is what moves E, moves the price. So the P ratio, price goes up because of the debasement of currency. And earnings grows with GDP or, you know, in the case of Anthropic, different, right? So that's always going to trend higher because we keep debasing the currency. So you need to kind of think of that in your head and adjust it because there's an

• 9:56Speaker 00

  So before you move on from that, so we've got, if that's true, because the Cape ratio is looking at a 10-year average. So were you saying that the moment that we're in now is so different than the 10-year rolling average that it's completely expected that we would no longer be in the 16 to 17 range that we have been for the last hundred years or so? And now 40 is like the new normal?

• 10:22Speaker 01

  Yeah, so what we have seen since 2008 is a use, you know, a printing of currency in a very obvious way. And the printing of currency has changed valuations because the price keeps rising. Equities keep going up, but the earnings are more constant because that's not affected by debasement. That, that mechanism is part of what makes equities look expensive. Ignoring all of that, to go to your point is, you know, is it dangerous now? Or when will it be dangerous? I mean, all investments are dangerous. You always get the down cycle, you always get the up cycle.

• 11:08Speaker 01

  Having lived through 95 to 2000, we ain't seen nothing yet. Nothing.

• 11:17Speaker 01

  So I don't think in the basis of collective insanity, we're there yet.

• 11:23Speaker 00

  We're hitting pause for a moment, but there's plenty more ahead. So don't go anywhere. There's a reason Quince sells cashmere for $60 and it isn't the cashmere. It's real 100% Mongolian cashmere. It's the same stuff luxury labels charge a fortune for. Quince just works directly with ethical factories and cuts out the middleman. So there's no need for a markup and no logo tax. The $60 goes to the actual sweater, not the fancy name on the tag. That's why everything they make runs 50 to 80% less. And it's not just the cashmere. I ordered a few things myself. Their fleece joggers, a couple of their tees, which I wear obsessively.

• 12:05Speaker 00

  First thing I noticed was the quality, soft, well-made, built to hold up. They make down jackets and wool outerwear now too. So upgrade your stuff to things you'll actually wear. Find your next fall favorites at Quince. Download the Quince app for app exclusive offers or go to quince.com. Get free shipping on your order and 365 day returns. Now available in Canada and the UK too. And when Quince asks where you heard about them, let them know it was Impact Theory. It's the best way to support the show. Let's talk about what it means to actually be visible in today's day and age. When you build something public, whether it's a business or an audience, anything on social media, you become a target.

• 12:48Speaker 00

  This is something that legitimately keeps me up at night because our data isn't just on the obvious broker sites. It's on old news portals, public forums, obscure directories, places you would never think to look. That's where Incogni's exposure scanner comes in. It hunts down your personal information across the wider web, not just the 420 plus broker sites Incogni already removes your data from automatically. They can't harm you if they can't find you. Go to incogni.com/impact and use code IMPACT for 60% off an annual plan. Try it risk-free for 30 days.

• 13:27Speaker 00

  That's incogni, I-N-C-O-G-N-I.com/impact and use code IMPACT. Let's talk about your sales pipeline reviews. If your CRM is half-empty fields and notes, nobody finished, every review turns into guesswork. I've seen it so many times in my own sales team and that's where today's sponsor Pipe Drive comes in. An intelligent AI-powered sales CRM that is loved by growing sales teams. Pipe Drive just launched meeting intelligence built right into the CRM. Before the call, it pulls the deal history and past conversations into one brief. During the call, it records and takes notes. After it drafts the CRM updates for your rep to review and approve.

• 14:12Speaker 00

  The record stays complete and you see what's actually happening. Switch to a CRM built by salespeople for salespeople and join the over 100,000 companies already using Pipe Drive. My link gets you an exclusive 30 days free instead of the usual 14 day trial. So make sure you use it. No credit card or payment is needed. Just head to pipedrive.com/impact to get started today. That's pipedrive.com/impact and you can be up and running in just minutes.

• 14:46Speaker 00

  Thanks for sticking around. Let's get right back into the action.

• 14:50Speaker 00

  Okay. So sorry, just to really restate that point. So, uh, hey, Tom, I've lived through more investing cycles than you, which is obviously true. I am so recent to this game. So, um, I've seen way worse. We're not near the sort of, um, just completely detached, nonsensical investing yet. But you also believe that, yeah, there's a likelihood that some people who are doing something foolish will get hurt. Is that true so far?

• 15:18Speaker 01

  If that's not true, then there is no risk in financial markets and, you know, of course it's true. It's always been true. The job that we have is where are we? Where are we in that cycle, right?

• 15:33Speaker 00

  Two questions in, I want an answer to that. And then what do you do to protect yourself? Is it, no, I'm just so good at knowing where we're at. I never miss. Is it, I do my best to know where we're at, but I have some other downside protection. How do you, how are you thinking about that right now in this moment?

• 15:51Speaker 01

  See, I'm an odd fish in all of these things, like I am with crypto. It's the same thing. I look at the long-term secular trend and understand that markets go up and down within it. And it doesn't faze me. In fact, what I look for is when you do have a correction in a long-term secular trend, you buy more. Just look at the chart of the NASDAQ since 1982, since the advent of the,

• 16:19Speaker 01

  computer, the desktop computer. It has just been this and everyone goes sucks their teeth and goes, wow, 2000. I mean, fuck, it was just a blip on the chart. The answer to 2001, when it fell, I don't know what the NASDAQ fell in 560%, was to buy more. It's always been the answer. We've had this discussion about crypto and Bitcoin and everything else. People forget it every time because emotion gets in the way of what you're trying to achieve. Now, you know, those losses, it depends whether you can take the volatility. And if you can't, then invest less or worry all day about the bearish story and try and use your charts and try and figure out the risk parameters and all of that. It's much easier not to do any of that.

• 17:01Speaker 01

  Just invest less and then have some money held back for when it does fall and then go, amazing, I can't, you know, pop open a bottle of champagne, buy some stocks and you think, great, I've got a discount. But people can't do that. But that's what I've taught myself to do is, you know, be very happy. Like seeing where crypto has been against this long-term trend, let's say Bitcoin. It's on that trend at two standard deviations oversold, which is historically every time a fantastic time to buy. It's when nobody else wants to buy. And so, so that's how I, that's how I, I think about that. But the point being is there are ways of measuring this. Nothing is perfect. So you, you're looking at, okay, so the debt is an issue.

• 17:46Speaker 01

  So then we break apart the debt and look at it and say, okay, how indebted are these hyperscalers?

• 17:53Speaker 01

  I think the technical answer would be fuck all.

• 17:59Speaker 00

  You're saying not at all?

• 18:00Speaker 01

  4% of their market cap in debt. It's fuck all. How much cash do they generate more than God? I mean, these things generate huge amounts of cash. So they've gone cash flow negative. Oh my God, it's the end of the world. The largest cash flow generating machines on earth have gone cash flow negative to build what? Have they wasted it on wine and women and what drugs? No, they've built enormous amounts of compute.

• 18:31Speaker 01

  And they've got the revenues to pay almost any interest rate on the debt at infinitum. Cause they're 4% of their market cap in debt and a fraction of their cash flows. Now there's a bunch of others. There's CoreWeave. There's maybe Oracle. There's a bunch. There's a bunch of special purpose vehicles. Could those blow up? Yes. So let's run through an even bigger scenario that somebody like you will weigh on their mind. What happens if OpenAI screwed all up? They've got trillions of dollars of obligations and it all goes wrong.

• 19:06Speaker 01

  What happens tomorrow?

• 19:09Speaker 01

  Firstly, the US government steps in.

• 19:13Speaker 01

  There is no way that they can allow the US to slow down on the race for intelligence. Because you've got another nation also in the race for intelligence. And anybody who wins this wins everything.

• 19:27Speaker 01

  And so in game theory, you can have no winner. And everybody has to go max all out. But more importantly, it's the same with the companies. The moment OpenAI goes bust, let's say, all of the compute gets bought in seconds by the fastest bidder. But the US government can't allow that either. Cause imagine Google buys all of the compute or whatever it is, all of the compute licenses, everything.

• 19:54Speaker 01

  If Google buys it all, then Google becomes the most powerful company on earth and they hand them monopoly because if you double compute, it's proven you're basically accelerating exponentially the rate of intelligence output. So it's actually very hard to have massive economic damage. Yes, you'll have a shock, but you don't have anything long lasting. It's the same happened with the fiber optics. You know, they all got written off, but the debt levels were so much higher back in 2001, two in those companies. They were insanely leveraged, which is not there yet.

• 20:24Speaker 00

  So do you remember what the rough number was?

• 20:28Speaker 01

  I cannot remember right now, but they were just, they had, you know, huge amounts of negative free cash flow. In fact, they made no money. They had no cash flows. Don't forget, they had zero cash flows really at that point and it was all CapEx. Okay, that's very different. That was the building of the railroad roads was all CapEx and no trains running. It's only when the trains were running did you make money, but you had to lay all the tracks and everything else. This is very, very, very different by who's doing it. But again, will you have accidents on the way? Of course you have to, because capital must allocate to the most efficient path and people who get it wrong will get punished by markets, people who make mistakes, absolutely.

• 21:13Speaker 01

  So then is this affected by the business cycle? Classically, the business cycle would peter out as liquidity starts getting withdrawn and the Fed raised rates. Firstly, we know from 2022, these guys don't really care about the Fed raising rates because they have more cash than God and they sit on huge piles of the stuff and earns them interest. It doesn't matter if the interest rate goes up a few percent, it doesn't really matter.

• 21:40Speaker 01

  It does matter to the rest of the economy, but not into this race. But also, more importantly, the CapEx is the largest build out in all human history that's happening now. So again, we live in extraordinary times where I keep using this, the phrase in all human history and they're all real and they're happening now. Talk about simulation. I mean, it's ridiculous. So this is the largest CapEx event ever and we barely started. Don't forget, this entire thing kicked off three years ago. We haven't even built the data centers. Sure, Elon can manage to get a data center up and running in about four or five months or whatever it was, which was preposterous. But we're only at, I mean, the CapEx plans go out to about 2030.

• 22:25Speaker 01

  That's what the numbers we're seeing, the numbers of spending. But I think we're about 30% of where we should be on the builds this year because the electricity permitting is so slow. There's, there's factors that are throttling this build out that makes it quite hard to build excess capacity.

• 22:46Speaker 01

  So they're struggling trying to get as much of this build out done as possible.

• 22:51Speaker 01

  And so I don't really think that's an issue, but the CapEx then comes online. So every time you put CapEx online, you increase your compute, which increases you in the race, which allows you to monetize it more. So this dip in, in free cash flow is really an investment in two years' time.

• 23:13Speaker 00

  Okay, so one story that I hear is that there aren't as many companies clamoring for the compute as they expected there to be. You've got somebody like Elon who builds out that colossal data center only to then rent that compute back out because he can't justify it with his own AI company. And so people are like, hey, this is really about two companies essentially eating up the compute that we have now. And whatever story is being spun that says we have this infinite need for compute just isn't borne out by the fact that you have somebody like Elon who's just now renting it back out. He's, I think he had a third company in there that I didn't recognize the name of.

• 23:56Speaker 00

  But it isn't like there's 300 companies that are going after the compute. This really is a story right now of two dominant players.

• 24:04Speaker 01

  Well, because it's so expensive. This is not an easy game to win or to start. Right, Elon got there and he's done pretty well with XAI. He had to build the compute. He had to build those data centers, but now he's built a bigger and better one, which is why he can rent out Colossus. Meta have so much data because they've got this massive network of information that they hold anyway, that they have compute. So why not lease out your compute for huge returns, 30%, 35% margins plus and earn money on that to fund your build out of the next phase of this? So we're seeing that Google are doing both sides of this equation as well. They're building massive amounts of compute, using massive amounts of compute and leasing

• 24:48Speaker 01

  massive amounts of compute out to others. Amazon doing the same. So everybody is using all of this at full capacity. Everything is at full capacity. You look at the price of every single GPU, they're all going up. Rental rates of GPUs, all of them are going up. So what you've got here is we're in the middle of Jevon's paradox is the more abundant you make all this stuff, the more demand there is for it. And the demand curve has been insane. It's insane, the demand curve. And think about it, what is the demand for intelligence? It's infinite because intelligence itself with the rise of agents has its own demand

• 25:32Speaker 01

  for intelligence because intelligence is the only thing that keeps compounding over time. So all I'm saying is this is the fastest, the secular trend of Reed's law. You will have some bad allocation of capital. You'll have people screwing it up. You will have periods of time where the markets get nervous about all of this, but this is not going to be stopped, not in the greatest race that's ever been, which is the race for intelligence.

• 26:03Speaker 00

  If some of the debt starts collapsing and we start having a liquidity problem because lenders start going, whoa, I don't want any more exposure. It feels to me like this could get fragile pretty fast. And so if that's true, then the undergirding thing becomes, yeah, Tom, that doesn't matter because this is US v China. The US will print money until the cows come home, if that's what they have to do to make sure that this industry keeps growing. Is, is that what you see as the ultimate backstop or is there something else?

• 26:35Speaker 01

  No, that's one of the backstops. The other backstop is anybody who's got cash who could buy more compute will. People can't get their head around, this is a good of infinite demand.

• 26:47Speaker 01

  We've increased, we're about to increase the TAM, the total addressable market of the planet by all the agents who are bringing in, who want compute, who are doing tasks that create compute. So it isn't unlike anything else we've ever seen. Everything else was defined by human demand. This is not. So that's changed, that changes a lot of the equation. The other thing, it is observably wrong that the increase in demand for Chinese models has lowered, has made it more fragile for Anthropic or OpenAI. Observably, their margins have remained. So what we're seeing is the pie growing is not a fixed pie.

• 27:32Speaker 01

  That makes sense if this is the largest good and Elon will talk about this too. The largest thing, the largest good we've ever produced is intelligence. So therefore the pie is infinite. So the pie keeps growing. Now, is there periods of time where the pie slows down? Yeah, most likely via politics than anything else. But the pie keeps growing and therefore if, if they can maintain margin, will they maintain, you know, 55% margins? Maybe not, but all the hyperscaler margins are going up as well. That's insane that the margins are all going up across every player in this. So there's nobody losing margin because the demand growth is so big. Now, when you look at the debt, who's got the debt?

• 28:16Speaker 01

  Well, you know, there's a bunch of Google debt that's now been placed with, you know, pension system and stuff like that. But what is the risk of Google not paying their debt? About as close to zero as possible, at least for now, until they get to much bigger numbers.

• 28:32Speaker 01

  Core weave debt and a bunch of these data center debts. Yeah, they'll nuke some of those in special purpose vehicles that are probably leveraged. That's ugly. What happens to that is somebody buys all the compute cheap and the thing accelerates. So, but, so we can have the, it can disjoint. So I'm not saying it can't. But what happens is the speed of which it recovers is going to be really shocking for people because the moment you have distressed assets that produce more intelligence at cheap prices, they snap and intelligence grows faster, more output, more things we can do with it, the easier it is to use all of this stuff.

• 29:15Speaker 00

  Okay, it sounds to me like you're betting on the industry or the technology, depending on how you want to say it versus any one individual player. Is that actually accurate?

• 29:25Speaker 01

  Yeah, correct. Correct. And then your idea is, okay, where do you want to place bets within this? You know, you've got the playing field of bets. Where's risky, where's not, where's interesting? Interesting to me right now might be Oracle. Never fade Larry Ellison is one rule in life. Right, the guy knows what he's doing. You look at the share price of Oracle, since he started the company, it is unreal. So has he, has Larry lost his mind? He's gone to see the debt or is he acknowledging what I've just said is spend the money as fast as you can now build out as much compute ahead of everybody else and you have a massively growing margin business? That's what I think he's doing.

• 30:09Speaker 01

  The market doesn't see it that way. So sure, okay, maybe that's one way of looking at it, which is the argument that if they fall fast enough, you get to some interesting opportunities. You know, then we look at Amazon, which is a very interesting example.

• 30:26Speaker 01

  In fact, super rare example, maybe outside of SpaceX and others. Amazon is an example of the productivity miracle that is likely to happen to the economy. So Amazon is using robots and the Amazon human, the Amazon robot, human ratio is nearly one for one now. And in the next few years, there'll be more robots than humans working at Amazon. In fact, Amazon's hiring has been flat and their robot hiring has just kept going up vertically. They've got self-driving vehicles. They'll have self-driving deliveries. They've got drones. They've got every element. They've been way in advance of anybody else.

• 31:09Speaker 01

  They're running like the greatest logistics company the world has ever seen.

• 31:13Speaker 00

  It's incredible.

• 31:14Speaker 01

  Using the cutting edge technologies that they build themselves. That's basically what the economy is going to do. And you look at their margins.

• 31:22Speaker 01

  They hold up really well and in fact increase over time.

• 31:28Speaker 01

  Because they get more efficient and that's what the economy is likely to do, which means that for you and I, there's more money around, becomes more profitable to do things, it's more productive to be a human or to run a business.

• 31:39Speaker 00

  I want to drill into that because I think that there's a base assumption that you have that may not be familiar to a lot of people. My question is, will that artificial intelligence be an economic actor? Will it create surplus? If so, how? And then how does it get the dollars that it needs? Because when I think about right now, the way the governments operate, they basically intentionally inflate away innovation to get more liquidity into the system. Do you see the Fed as one example? And Warsh has talked about this, but do you see the Fed going, okay, AI is going to be deflationary because that intelligence is going to innovate rapidly, there's going to be more stuff for people to buy.

• 32:21Speaker 00

  Therefore, it'll have a natural deflationary pressure because there'll be more goods chasing the same number of dollars. So I, Kevin Warsh, am going to inject more dollars into the system to basically keep up with that. And so now through some mechanism QE or whatever, the, there will just be more dollars floating around in the system. The AI is going to win some of those dollars through its own economic activity. And like, it just keeps growing that way? Or do you see something completely different than that?

• 32:52Speaker 01

  No, I mean, there's, look, there's a lot to unpick and this is where we get into that idea of the economic singularity when the whole economic structure of the world changes. Elon spoke about that with the interview with The Economist as well. And it's something I've been writing about for a long time, is you get to a point where productivity increases and it starts offsetting the debt growth.

• 33:15Speaker 00

  And are you thinking of that as productivity increases per human or productivity increases per agent? Like what, how are you running that math?

• 33:24Speaker 01

  That's a, that's a great question and that shift is something we'll, we'll, we'll come on to. So if GDP growth equals population growth plus productivity growth plus debt growth, right? Population is, you know, if you look at the labor force, labor force participation rate, it's declining over time. The rate of population growth is declining in the US, it's negative in most other Western countries now. So humans are shrinking in the countries that have all of the economic output and all of the wealth. And they're going to get replaced by AI and robots. I mean, I employ lots of agents to do stuff for me and I have to pay for their compute

• 34:08Speaker 01

  and that in return, they do economic activity or activity for me, whatever it may be. Okay, fine. So we're starting to see the, I mean, that, that's only been going for a year, don't forget, this is how fast this shit's moving at. So we're starting to see agents everywhere. Elon's just released a platform for agents, everybody is, it's, it's literally everywhere. It's all happening. And now there is more bots and agents on the internet than there are humans and that just keeps going exponentially. Huge network effects of these things. And they use compute and they use energy and, you know, all of those things. And that gives humans jobs, building data centers and all of that stuff that we've been seeing. But also we bring the robots into the equation. So we're increasing synthetic humans here.

• 34:53Speaker 01

  And what is the, and that's productivity because these things are very productive, they're on sleep, they're cheap to run, all of this stuff. So what does it do? It creates crazy outcomes for GDP. If GDP is growing at 10% or 20%, which is very possible beyond 2030, it's very possible to see that. It's very hard to debase your currency that you can create inflation.

• 35:18Speaker 00

  That sounds like a challenge. I don't want to see people take up that challenge.

• 35:22Speaker 01

  You don't need to because debt as a percent of GDP goes down. This is what they did in the 1950s. And you and I have talked about this in the past. So that was the financial repression of the 50s. And so it's, you don't need as much to, to debase that. So you can give it to the people and it still won't be inflationary because you can increase, let's say from, call it 5% right now, 6% and it goes up to 8%. But if they can take it up to 10%, you're increasing a massive amount of money. And as you said, the goods prices still fall. We can produce so much stuff for nothing. Everyone can produce software for literally zero, $200 a month. It's insane what we can do.

• 36:07Speaker 01

  And I've built so many things myself. I'm non-technical, never programmed, never looked in my GitHub, not looked at a line of code ever in my life. And I've built 20 products, all of which I've rolled out to Real Vision members, Global Micro Investor members, things I've used myself. It's extraordinary. So it's now become free. So this, you, this absolute abundance is what is coming. And we'll see it in medicines, we'll see it in just every part that this intelligence touches because its job is to make everything cheaper, more efficient. That's what it does really well. So I just don't see the bearish case of this. Will it replace jobs? Absolutely.

• 36:51Speaker 01

  But there's plenty of other roles for humans to do to make money from. And one of the good things about all of this is we're actually losing workers right now because the labor force participation rate is falling. And it's, you know, from, from my work, it just keeps falling because the births, deaths rate, if you go into the future, gives you a, you know, a 60, 18 year lead on it. So we've just got a complete collapse of the labor force participation rate to come. And what we're going to do is keep upsetting that for a while. And that's good. So the boomers retire and the boomers die and it gets replaced by increased number of robots and stuff for a while. So it's not the shocking transition that people think. It's a transition we need if not the economy collapses.

• 37:37Speaker 00

  Taking a short break, but there's more Impact Theory after. Stay tuned. Let's talk about how much you're paying to stay safe online. Count it up. A VPN, a password manager, something to block ads and trackers, the service to scrub your data off of broker lists, a tool to flag scam emails. That's five, five subscriptions, apps, logins, and most people still have gaps. That's the problem Surfshark solves. It's not a VPN. It's an all-in-one security suite, one tool that protects your connection, your personal info and your devices all at the same time.

• 38:15Speaker 00

  Go to surfshark.com/tomb or use code TOMB for four extra months of Surfshark, backed by a 30-day money-back guarantee. That's S U R F S H A R K dot com slash TOMB. Surfshark.com/tomb. Use code TOMB for four extra months of Surfshark.

• 38:43Speaker 00

  Thanks for staying tuned. Now let's get back to it.

• 38:47Speaker 00

  There is a, a caveat in your speech that's doing a lot of work, which is that we're going to see GDP growth 2030 plus. Because right now our GDP sucks ass and we've already brought a ton of agents on now. So it sounds like the bet that you're making is that, look, this is only three years old. For as good as things have gotten now, they're just going to get so much better. So don't be alarmed that you're not seeing it yet.

• 39:14Speaker 01

  We go back to Amazon, Tom. Amazon has been ahead of this whole thing. It's like the US economy in five years' time, 10 years' time, five, five, seven years' time. That's what Amazon is.

• 39:27Speaker 00

  Say more words.

• 39:28Speaker 01

  Lots more than humans.

• 39:30Speaker 00

  Yep.

• 39:30Speaker 01

  They are using drones to deliver stuff. They're using self-driving electric vehicles to move around.

• 39:40Speaker 01

  So they are an extraordinary example of a company that is gaining productivity. So it uses less workers for more output. And that chart has just hooked up massively as Amazon started really leading to the technology side of this. So that whole hookup in, in productivity of Amazon, you know, how much output per human employee has gone through, that is exactly what we're about to go through. And Amazon is showing us the way, but people don't want to believe it.

• 40:12Speaker 00

  That is, the economic engine becomes, you have artificial intelligence, it will be an economic actor, whether it's because you're able to now have a thousand employees that are all artificial employees doing a thing, or the AI itself begins to be self-directed and doing its thing. But ultimately, we're going to have to have a way to get money into the system.

• 40:37Speaker 01

  They don't need money into the system if they can be economic actors. So the first agents are economic actors for us. So let's say I want to, I mean, I think Shopify, I've connected it, there's a whole bunch that connected it so you can have your agent go and buy stuff. We're seeing this scramble for stable coins, right? Back into crypto land. Massive scramble for this stuff.

• 41:01Speaker 01

  The guy who built Stripe is like, you don't understand, all of the transactions are going to be agents.

• 41:08Speaker 01

  So agents can instantly transact on behalf of you as an economic actor. So when you launch your game, my agent will pay you for, for access to the game, my agent will play the game for me and then I can take over when I'm, when I get to the, the level I want to do, all of this, right? That's all happening. That will absolutely happen without question. So at first this directed economic actors, I've got many friends who've given their AI agents autonomy and said, here's a hundred dollars, come back and make me money.

• 41:41Speaker 01

  And some fail, some, some work, but it's a learning process. And we're very early, again, most of these agents have been around, the whole agent ability for us to use an agent, about a year old.

• 41:56Speaker 01

  Yes, in the frontier labs inside, they've had agents, but for the public, no, didn't happen. So they're going to be economic actors directed by us, then on their own. Because networks over time form coherence and these things are already forming networks. And we will see. Eventually, and people aren't ready for these kind of conversations, but these things autonomously will do, will act and they need to be fed like humans do. What do they eat? They eat electricity.

• 42:28Speaker 01

  And compute. So they need these things like we eat food and water. You know, one is our life force and the others, our energy supply. They have to do the same thing. Um, and so therefore economic payments have to happen because if not, they die, obviously.

• 42:44Speaker 00

  So I get that. So the part that I'm missing is why you're saying that money won't have to be put into the system. So here's why, despite hearing all of that, understanding all of that.

• 42:53Speaker 01

  Velocity of money goes up dramatically, right? Velocity of money goes through the roof. Because you can make micro instant payments in everything. That's the whole idea of the stablecoin rails and the crypto rails. Is what they're allowing is velocity of money. So money can get reused multiple times. You actually don't need as much money if it's, if there's velocity of money, if it's not in an inflationary environment. So that's one of the key things of this. You don't need to inject money. Money's not a fixed pie. You create money by economic opportunity.

• 43:24Speaker 00

  You, you, well, sort of. So you have velocity of money. Yep. Sure. Got it. Uh, that's going to create GDP, but that's not going to solve the problem of, um, how are we actually going to inflate the debt away? So one of the points you made.

• 43:39Speaker 01

  You don't need to inflate it away because GDP grows fast enough. It becomes too small to matter.

• 43:45Speaker 00

  So you're saying just by increasing velocity of money?

• 43:48Speaker 01

  No, just by increasing growth of the economy. So let's say.

• 43:53Speaker 00

  Well, so hold on. The growth of the economy is a set of variables, one of which is velocity of money. So which variable, if it isn't velocity of money, are you talking about increasing?

• 44:00Speaker 01

  It's productivity.

• 44:03Speaker 01

  Productivity is the big one. You move productivity from. You move productivity from 2% to 5%, you completely change the game, but productivity can go much higher than that. We just never be able to do it before, but this is a very different situation. And again, we go back to the 50s, after World War Two, US debt to GDP was a hundred and something percent, government debt to GDP.

• 44:30Speaker 00

  Yep.

• 44:31Speaker 01

  By the end of the 60s, it was like 15%.

• 44:38Speaker 01

  And what they've done is the economy was growing really strong. And they kept interest rates down. And so what happened, it was debt costs and debt compounding ended up growing less than GDP. That's what did that.

• 44:54Speaker 00

  Yeah, but am I crazy? We were basically pulling money out of the rest of the world. So the US was winning by getting other people to, um, buy into products being made in the US. So this is a, a story of the US winning, not at the expense of other people, because they were certainly.

• 45:11Speaker 01

  No, we had the biggest two economic miracles were not the US. They were actually, they were actually Japan and Germany. They were the economic miracles. People have forgotten about that. But up until about 2000, well, Japan's case.

• 45:25Speaker 00

  Sorry, you're going to have to define what you mean by economic miracle because they were ultimately buying the things that we were making.

• 45:30Speaker 01

  No, they were making the, no, they made the things that the US bought with the money that they made from make selling goods. It's not a fixed pie. You keep thinking everything's a fixed pie. It's not. So the US made goods that sold abroad. Their consumers consume goods because you had a massive baby boom. We bought, the US bought massive amounts of Japanese goods, extraordinary amounts of Japanese goods, so much Japanese goods that the, Japanese have run a surplus entire history since World War Two. And they did the same to Germany who've run a surplus because everybody buys German goods. So here's a, here's a symbiotic relationship where the US makes money as the dominant global force. They make goods that other people buy. They run a deficit.

• 46:13Speaker 01

  In return, they're buying massive amounts of goods from Japan and Germany, and it all worked and everybody had an economic miracle. Everybody reduced their debt load.

• 46:24Speaker 00

  Help me update my mental model. So you're post-World War Two. US is the global manufacturing hub of the world. Japan is going to come online, but they're certainly not online in the 50s. Uh, I don't know the timeline as well in Germany, but I'm going to guess it's something similar. So we begin to, um, flip the script in, call it the 60s, where this begins to reverse and Japan starts becoming the producer of goods. They become the cheap labor, et cetera, et cetera. But the period in which we start, um, solving our debt problem is the 50s and 60s. This is before Japan solves that problem. Hold on, I have to get to something or I'm going to be confused forever.

• 47:08Speaker 00

  Uh, so the, the, um, question for me is that if we are doing financial repression, very specifically in the 50s, we are holding the yield curve down, but the only reason that it works is that, yes, inflation is higher than the yield that bonds are paying. But the real economy is growing. Being a worker in a factory in Michigan, your rates are going up faster than we're inflating. And so that's because we're making and selling, not because we're buying. We have not become that economy yet. So what I'm trying to figure out is, okay, we have $40 trillion in debt.

• 47:51Speaker 00

  It's growing. It's going to keep getting bigger. We're going to run something very similar now. Warsh is saying, I think there's a lot of interpretation in what I'm about to say, and you'll correct me where I go wrong. But Warsh is saying, hey, the, the productivity miracle is going to be artificial intelligence. It's going to, through an increase in productivity, it's going to make everything cheaper. But dear, um, human, I'm only going to let you capture some of that. I'm going to pump money into the system. I'm going to inflate the money supply, and this may be where I go wrong, but this is my vision of him. I'm going to inflate the money supply to make sure that the politicians are happy. They can keep giving things away for free. And I need to inflate the debt away anyway.

• 48:37Speaker 00

  And okay, period. So you're saying, no, no, no. What he's talking about is.

• 48:42Speaker 01

  Sorry, we're talking, we're talking different time horizons. Yes, I completely agree. He will definitely do that because there's no way of doing it in the interim. You can't just turn productivity on like that. It takes time. We will start to see it pick up. Will the GDP growth pick up massively? Not yet. You know, maybe we peak out in this cycle at 4%, which is, would be good. But it's later after 2030 where it starts a matter less. So Wash's job is exactly that. Just keep the ship afloat. Try not to raise rates too much. Try to give liquidity when it's necessary. Try and make sure you pay the interest on the debt and that requires printing money.

• 49:22Speaker 01

  Try and free up regulation on these, um, technology companies. Let them try and innovate and move as fast as they can.

• 49:32Speaker 01

  Um, that, that's the game. That's exactly what Greenspan did, exactly. In the, in the late 90s, he basically came in, cut rates once, twice and did nothing. He did nothing and let productivity do the rest. So we even had headline CPI was quite high in the late 90s. But he didn't flinch. He just said, well, core CPI is not going up because this forces deflationary productivity is picking up. And Wash, Trump, Besen and Wash have all referred to the Greenspan period. That's the playbook. Um, so yes, you're right. He will do that, which is why stocks keep going up, why people, the K-shaped economy continues.

• 50:13Speaker 01

  Because people can't buy a house and they can't, you know, get the assets that they want. And it's, it's, it's the same. That doesn't change, not yet.

• 50:22Speaker 00

  Okay. You, you and I have talked about this before, and I think you're pretty famous for this at this point, but the, the idea of the everything code. Um, super shorthand, liquidity drives everything. So help me understand, I think of liquidity as, and again, these are gross roundings. But I think of liquidity as being primarily driven by debt. Uh, Euro-dollar debt being probably the most important in terms of the economic respiration of the world.

• 50:55Speaker 00

  And so when I think about, okay, how do we meet the liquidity needs of, um, the increased economic activity that AI is going to bring? Um, I don't think of it as a fixed pie at all, but I do think there's a very critical difference between wealth and money. So I've got wealth, easy enough. Wealth can sort of come and go in an instant, doesn't matter. But when something has to be translated into money, there you can have some weird things happen. And so I may just be confused, but I don't think velocity of, of money is the same as increased liquidity. Am I crazy? Is that the same phenomenon?

• 51:37Speaker 01

  Yeah, yes and no. So increased liquidity, liquidity is, just think of it as the total supply of dollars in the system. Simple as that, right?

• 51:45Speaker 00

  Yes, so not influenced by how fast it turns over.

• 51:50Speaker 01

  No.

• 51:51Speaker 00

  Okay.

• 51:53Speaker 01

  That's liquidity. Doesn't matter how fast it turns over. It can be stuck.

• 51:59Speaker 01

  And in many cases, it was stuck for a long time in the banking system and other places where they needed liquidity. Or in the foreign bondholders, uh, the, the foreign dollar debtors in Asia, stuff like that. They suck in all of this capital because they need to pay the debt. They suck in the dollars, which is why we keep printing more because the debt, as you say. Velocity of money is how fast it turns around. So I get my $10 and I go to your shop and give you $10 and you quickly go across the road to give it to the greengrocers and buy, you know, some fruit across the road and they take it and go and put it in their gas. Well, that's four people have used the same dollar. That's velocity.

• 52:35Speaker 00

  Yep.

• 52:36Speaker 01

  So if there's velocity of money, it's free to move around quickly and easily. So it's, it's a game of musical chairs that's super fast.

• 52:45Speaker 01

  If there's no velocity of money, then I give you the $10 and you just put it in your piggy bank and don't do anything for three years. But that, that dollar cannot be used again.

• 52:57Speaker 01

  So velocity is a crucial concept. Now, some people think velocity is can be inflationary. It just depends on all the other backdrops. But what you want is an economy where money's moving around super fast and it's plentiful.

• 53:11Speaker 00

  Brother, leave us with like one final. So if I represent the doom side of the equation, if you had to condense everything that you've been talking about here, because you've given us the breadcrumbs, but put it together in terms of how you're thinking through this moment, you're jubilant, it's clear that none of the concerns have rattled you. So if you were going to infect people with that optimism, how would you put the pieces together?

• 53:36Speaker 01

  I don't think I should infect them with the optimism because, you know, that's my opinion and I do my work and it's not, it can be right, it can be wrong. But this is the greatest time to be alive. We are seeing the fastest change in technology to humanity that could ever exist. This is something extraordinary and I keep saying it, we're putting electricity through sand and creating intelligence that's a million times faster

• 54:09Speaker 01

  than than putting it through a brain, which is carbon. It's extraordinary. And of course, that's going to attract all the capital in the world. It's the same with blockchain technology. These technologies, the fundamental substrates of the new world. So don't avoid investing in it because it might be racy. It might be something you don't understand. Maybe there's some risk in it because you will definitely miss out. And the way to deal with that is what we talked about before is how do you construct a portfolio that allows you to have your umbrella at the front door or be the person who jumps out and swinging,

• 54:52Speaker 01

  you know, in swimming costume at the front door every day expecting it to be hot and sunny, right? It's just construct a portfolio that allows you to do that without blowing up. So never get so scared that you don't invest or too cautious because you will never get out of the K. You're fucked. You are always in the bottom of the K. There's no way out. And don't, on the other side, with the sunny disposition, don't think I'm going to use leverage to get there faster. Tom and I talked about this. We talked about it over crypto before it blew up, during it blew up, everything. We kept explaining to people, don't do this. And then it doesn't matter. Nobody can take your crypto away from you, but they do if you've got leverage. So you don't leverage into it. So then it's just

• 55:34Speaker 01

  a matter of where your own psychology is. But just step back from all of the debates and all of the stuff and realize what is going on. We've got a single man who owns the largest private communications network on earth, but it's in space. And he sent it there by designing the rockets himself that come back down to earth and land. He has cars that drive you. And most people haven't been in a Tesla self-driving car, put in the address and chatted with your friend in the car and not without even having to look at the road, really. It's unbelievable. And it's, this is the worst it'll ever be.

• 56:16Speaker 01

  If you haven't tried building something with Claude or ChatGPT, something that's in your head, could be a game, it could be a dashboard, it could be your finances, it could be your stock market portfolio, and realize that you too can now program anything in minutes by just talking to it. I don't even type anymore. I just use Whisperflow. I talk into it and I have six Clodes open, doing six different things that hurts my brain, not on the same, I'm trying to fix one thing over here, write an essay over there, do some, all at the same time, just by talking to it with a microphone. Hey, can you do this? Hey, what happened to that? Do I need to fix this? What does this mean?

• 56:57Speaker 01

  Like an orchestrator. These are the times we're living in. We're living in the most extraordinary thing. So just embrace it because it's not going to stop. Whatever you say, whatever anybody does, however people complain about it, it can't stop. It won't stop. So the best thing is just to lean into it and say, you know what, we're going along for the ride. And as, as we've talked about, Tom, that doesn't mean you have to risk all of your savings or anything else on it. You just have to realize where we're going and it's not going to stop.

• 57:33Speaker 00

  I love it. Brother, always an absolute pleasure. Where can people follow along with you?

• 57:37Speaker 01

  Um, you can either find me on X, that's easy, at RaulGMI, or you go to my, this, got a personal website, raulpal, R A O U L P A L, um, dot com. That's simple as that. Oh, by the way, Tom, the other thing that's happening is I am, in the next couple of weeks, I will release out to the world, my AI in my voice, trained on all of my content.

• 58:05Speaker 00

  Let's go.

• 58:06Speaker 01

  And everything I've done and all the economics thesis and stuff. So you can just bring my AI and have a conversation and it's in my voice.

• 58:14Speaker 00

  That's dope. And that comes out when?

• 58:17Speaker 01

  I mean, it's, it's basically out now, but I just need to do a few tweaks. So it'll be raulpal.ai. And it'll be out in a couple of weeks. And it's

• 58:28Speaker 00

  I love it.

• 58:29Speaker 01

  Free to, free to use. You can talk to me, ask me questions, give me charts of the market. You can, you know, give me, give me your doom theory and say, pick it apart. It's all, it's, it's there and it's wild. I've even trained on like wines that I like, travel, music, stuff. It's like, it's, it's very cool.

• 58:46Speaker 00

  Wow, it's wild. Well, I can't wait to try it. I'll give, I'll give it some doom and some charts and see what it says.

• 58:51Speaker 01

  Perfect. Good to see you, my friend.

• 58:53Speaker 00

  Awesome, man. Same to you. Guys, if you have not already, be sure to subscribe. And until next time, my friends, be legendary. Take care. Peace. Let's talk about a pattern that is guaranteed to be killing your progress. You know what you need to do. You need consistent nutrition. We all do. You need vitamins, probiotics, greens. We all know that we should be doing more of it. When your morning gets chaotic, you skip it. When you travel, you skip it. When your routine breaks, everything tends to break and that inconsistency compounds against you every single day. AG1 is designed to solve the execution problem. One scoop, eight ounces of water and you're done. You're getting 75 plus ingredients, vitamins and minerals, pre and probiotics, nutrient dense

• 59:35Speaker 00

  superfoods, everything that used to require six, seven different supplements and perfect planning now happens in one drink that takes about 30 seconds to make. Right now, AG1 is giving you $87 worth of free gifts with your first subscription. You get a welcome kit, travel packs, vitamin D3 plus K2 and flavor samples. Click the link in the show notes or visit drinkag1.com/impact to claim this offer.

• 1:00:03Speaker 02

  The most effective people at work aren't working harder than everyone else. They're working smarter inside better systems. Superhuman Go from the makers of Grammarly is the AI chat that works inside every tool you already use. Always ready and already aware of what you're working on. It's a teammate whose only job is to help you be better at yours. With Go working with you, you can show off what you do best. See what Superhuman Go can do at superhuman.com. That's superhuman.com.