Apple Just Filed the Lawsuit That Could Destroy OpenAI

ITU: Ready to break through your biggest business bottleneck? Apply to work with me 1:1 - https://impacttheory.co/SCALE Sign up for my AI Masterclass: https://tombilyeu.com/ai-masterclass?utm_campaign=TBS-Livestream&utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social https://tombilyeu.com/ai-masterclass?utm_campaign=TBS-Livestream&utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social Welcome to Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu! In this dynamic live episode, Tom dives headfirst into a whirlwind of the week's most electrifying news and conspiracy theories. From the shocking and sudden death of Senator Lindsey Graham and its ensuing firestorm of global conspiracies, to escalating U. S. military actions and rising trade tensions with Canada, no critical topic goes untouched. Tom unpacks why oil markets aren’t behaving as expected amidst conflict, the explosive lawsuit between Apple and OpenAI, and how American manufacturing ingenuity is making a comeback in defense tech. Along the way, the team explores the intersection of geopolitics, tech innovation, and even the unexpected risks of pillow talk within national security—all with Tom’s signature analytical rigor and unfiltered perspective. Buckle up: this is an unmissable conversation about power, narrative, and the future unfolding before our eyes. Sponsors: Quince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpod Whatnot: Download the Whatnot app today and get free shipping on your first order. ATT Business: Switch to AT&T Business at business.att.com http://business.att.com Shopify: Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial period at https://shopify.com/impact Incogni: Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code IMPACT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/impact Quo: Try for free PLUS get 20% off your first 6 months at https://quo.com/impact Paleovalley: 30 for $36 https://bit.ly/PaleovalleyIT Netsuite: Right now, get our free business guide, Demystifying AI, at https://NetSuite.com/Theory https://netsuite.com/Theory See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

• 0:00Speaker 00

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  Their dashboard tracks what comes next based on what your business actually needs. So EIN number, registered agent, licenses and permits, bookkeeping, business banking. I tell every founder the same thing. Just make it official. Click the link in the show notes to check out Taylor Brands and get started on your business today. This is a paid advertisement. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to another episode of the Tom Bilyeu Show Live. Boy, oh, boy, it was certainly an eventful weekend. If you guys were online, Lindsey Graham died suddenly after visiting Ukraine. And the internet is ablaze with conspiracies. I have never seen conspiracies come in so many flavors. We're going to be diving into them all, but no matter which flavor you want, there's one for you.

• 1:31Speaker 00

  U.S. strikes over the last couple of days are the most intense, certainly since the MOU. And I think rival even the beginning of the war. The U.S. and Canada are on the verge of a trade war, which is bizarre, but nonetheless where we're at. Oil is not moving how it should, given the conflict in Iran. We're going to break down why. Apple is going ham suing OpenAI over industrial scale IP theft. Palmer Lucky of Androl has created a low-cost cruise missile that can be mass-produced by car companies. If you guys know anything about World War II history, you will understand what that means. And a hot, young woman gets a nuclear scientist to divulge classified secrets on hidden camera.

• 2:13Speaker 00

  That is never going to cease to amuse me, even when it is something that insane.

• 2:19Speaker 00

  Man, the human mind works in fascinating ways, boys and girls. But speaking of biology, Senator Lindsey Graham is dead at 71. He was pronounced dead at George Washington University Hospital late Saturday night after what his office called, and I quote, "a brief and sudden illness." The D.C. medical examiner performed an autopsy Sunday and released preliminary findings, which is aortic dissection due to arterioscleratic. Yes, I think I got that right. Cardiovascular disease. Basically, I'm going to chalk this up to bad diet. So all the people that are saying like this is 18 variations of conspiracy theory.

• 3:00Speaker 00

  And I will admit, the timing is pretty insane, given that you had him in Ukraine in a weapons facility, ends up getting struck supposedly. I don't think that's been confirmed yet, but supposedly, once he leaves, boom, the Russians hit that. Then he goes home, click, dead, like right after he gets back. And this is right on the heels of Iran making him one of like a small handful of people. So they had Trump, Lindsey Graham, Ben Shapiro, Laura Loomer, I think. So like a really small handful of people. And so first one goes down. Somebody released an AI video that's been linked in terms of the style,

• 3:43Speaker 00

  has been linked to some IRGC propaganda videos where it's shown in a Lego format. So this Lego video supposedly released by Iran taking claim for the assassination of Lindsey Graham. But again, to me, anybody looking at that man, he was not living a healthy lifestyle. And so my initial thinking was, yeah, when you get hardening of the arteries, that will kill you lickety-split. Like if you get a tear in the right part of your vascular system, you're just going to bleed out. So this one doesn't seem super shocking to me, but it really, the number of different conspiracies that are coming out are crazy. So you've got people in the Russian camp.

• 4:25Speaker 00

  So clearly Russians took him out because he's putting all this support behind Ukraine. We had to get him. Then you've got the Iranian camp. I mean, they're just straight saying, or the propaganda video, I don't know if it actually came from them. But they were super eager to take credit for it because he was on their hit list. Then you've even got a Zajuz one coming out where people are saying, yo, we've got to like let Trump know that you're next, man. If you're trying to back off of this war in Iran, we've got to just let you know, don't do that. So I could not believe that even the Mossad is catching strays on this one. So it's really a question of what flavor do you want? Do you want to just take a straight, look, he's 71, he had a terrible diet. Like the odds were not in this man's favor.

• 5:10Speaker 00

  That's there for you. You've got the Putin's out to get you with the number of people that he's poisoned and killed in the sudden illness camp vein. You've got, I mean, Mossad is always going to show up because we're in a super weird time right now with all of that. But whatever camp you're in, man, you've got a champion for your conspiracy theory. It is wild, but I would say strap on your tinfoil hat if you are going into that territory. Right now, I think the play is assume for now that eating a bad diet is going to come for us all. If you want to know who's got your number, it is the Grim Reaper if you're not eating the right things. But the timing is pretty crazy, especially now.

• 5:54Speaker 00

  This is also going to get politically weird because you've got Weekend at Bernie's happening over in the Mitch McConnell camp. And now you've got Lindsey going down. Is Lindsey going to have a special election? Does anybody know? Is that going to trigger?

• 6:07Speaker 01

  Because we're so close to the primary and everything like that, somebody else can then run for their seat to then get on the ballot for the next one.

• 6:12Speaker 00

  So there won't be a special election. We got close enough.

• 6:14Speaker 01

  We got close enough. We missed it.

• 6:15Speaker 00

  He held on just long enough.

• 6:16Speaker 01

  The House is on opposite times in the Senate.

• 6:18Speaker 00

  So yeah, that is certainly utterly fascinating. Now, the thing that I found the biggest sort of jarring thing was the mainstream media is not. I haven't seen, maybe it's just my algorithm, but I've not seen a single commentary on the conspiracy theory of it all from the mainstream media. But on the other side, I haven't even heard anybody credibly say, guys, come on. Like this kind of death happens all the time from people that are not healthy. If he was 45 and, you know, 10% body fat, I'd be like, yeah, Russia got him or whatever. But he's 71, he clearly obese. I very much doubt this is a man who's out there getting all the exercise that he needs.

• 7:00Speaker 00

  So extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. You've got the medical examiner already saying, look, he just had a tear in one of his

• 7:10Speaker 00

  blood vessels and game over.

• 7:13Speaker 01

  I like the conspiracy theory of it all, so I'm going to lean into that part.

• 7:16Speaker 00

  You like it or you actually think it's true?

• 7:18Speaker 01

  I like it. I'm going to be honest with you. Lindsey had to go. I am okay with his passing. I'm not okay with anybody dying. I'm not rooting for it.

• 7:28Speaker 00

  Except for Lindsey Graham?

• 7:28Speaker 01

  I don't hope that any foreign actors had a like participation into it. But this tweet from We the Brandon really kind of got my wheels spinning. So I'm going to read it out, see how it goes. "I'm convinced Lindsey Graham was killed in Ukraine by Russian airstrike on a drone facility."

• 7:42Speaker 00

  Like he died on the scene?

• 7:43Speaker 01

  So I died on the scene.

• 7:44Speaker 00

  Okay.

• 7:45Speaker 01

  "Trump is covering it up as to prevent himself from being in a position where he'll need to escalate, but cannot because he's blown through all of the critical stockpiles in his stupidest, midwest, mid-east war fiasco." I can read the rest, but the rest is just like slander at this point. "Hypothetically speaking, if Lindsey Graham was killed on foreign ground from a foreign power, whether it was Putin, whether it is Iran via Putin, whatever it might have been, that is a declaration of war." "We are now seeing in the Strait of Hormuz, this isn't the America of World War I, where we have assembly lines and the women on workforce lining up in aprons, making bombs. It's a different America." Do you think that there is, if this is true, disclaimer, disclaimer, all that stuff? Do you think that there is some validity in that?

• 8:29Speaker 01

  Like, wait a second, I don't know if I can handle two wars when we're barely leading one and Russia has a way more, is way more apt to just kind of going nuclear, literally. Is this something that Trump would even like consider? Would the cover story of he died in his house actually be something to save the republic in the grand scheme of things?

• 8:50Speaker 00

  Okay, so just adopting for a second that this actually happened, which for the record is not my belief.

• 8:57Speaker 01

  Disclaimer.

• 8:58Speaker 00

  If this were to be somebody that actually was killed by a foreign government in this exact moment, my advice to them would be certainly to buy time because you don't want to go in and have to start escalating things directly with Russia. What you would do is just behind the scenes, without like making a big deal of it, you start putting more energy and effort into Ukraine. You make sure that they're getting the weapons that they need. You work with places like Androl. We're going to be covering this story later. It's absolutely brilliant. Palmer Lucky is incredible. In fact, we should probably do a real beat when we get to that about American ingenuity, the thing that has made us the greatest ever in times of need.

• 9:41Speaker 00

  We've really leaned on necessity is the mother of invention and we've been able to really turn over very rapidly. And I see him, Elon Musk, building the kind of technology that we would need. The fact that Lucky Palmer had the foresight to say, these need to be missiles that are, that we can build in an auto factory. So now you've got somebody who's looking at what are the resources that America has now? What could we do that would be great for the economy, would bring manufacturing back? I know I could get President Trump behind this and would allow us to take on our adversaries. There's something very, very interesting there. So I would tell, my advice to the government would be, look, don't distract the public.

• 10:26Speaker 00

  Just keep pushing that one quietly behind the scenes so that we're not having to go in to save face and, you know, do some big thing. So if they were going to try to cover it up, I would say it's good strategy, even if it's one of those where it's another example of how your government lies to you. Like it, that's just so far gone. Nothing you hear is real, nothing is true. And it really does come down to how do you get the outcome that you need? So from that perspective, that wouldn't shock me at all. That would be good strategy. You can push that one along as much as you have the tooling to do it, but you may need to buy yourself six months or even a year before you'd realistically be ready. You need to see how things are playing out in Iran.

• 11:09Speaker 00

  If you get some stability there, if you and Europe all acting together, but more quietly behind the scenes can continue to weaken Russia, because it really does look, and look, I know I'm subject to so much propaganda, it's hard to know what's really real. But it really does seem that they're having a massive impact on the energy infrastructure of Russia. If they can do that and just make the war that much more unpopular, that one may fizzle out on its own where it just becomes untenable for Putin. But if you get bombastic, because my big fear in Russia is you back Putin into a corner where he does not have a good off ramp. And so he escalates and this becomes nuclear. And so Putin certainly makes my radar as somebody who, if they felt like the barbarians were at the gates and really truly like America's like, fuck you, we're bombing, we're going

• 11:54Speaker 00

  crazy, that he's going to escalate. So I don't like that one as much as I despise the fact that the government lies to us all the time. I would much rather that than find ourselves in nuclear war. So yeah, that to me, you need to buy yourself time. You need to find an off ramp for Putin. And if that means having to sort of obfuscate that direct attack to buy yourself some time, that makes sense to me. Period. Now, one thing that I want to bring up that I was thinking a lot about this weekend is we're killing the shit out of Iran's leadership. And we're just like, yeah, fuck them. And we go in, we strike them, we're like, yeah, yeah, yeah, we killed them.

• 12:36Speaker 00

  Trump, in his first term, was it, I forget who he hit, Baghdadi, one of them. And was just like, yeah, we did it. No apologies. If you fuck with us, like you're going to find out. And so it really, if you live by the sword, you die by the sword. And so while I'll always root for America, even if I think America is making dumb decisions, like you've got to protect your own country. And so I'm never going to be like, well, we did it to them, so we should expect it to be done to us. No, like we did a thing, you didn't back down. If you escalate, we're going to escalate again. And so that's where all of this leads and I will expect us to win. Even if everybody can agree, we just shouldn't have got into it in the first place. So on that side though, if you live by the sword, you die by the sword.

• 13:20Speaker 00

  And so nobody should be surprised if this were real. Again, I don't think it is. But the fact that these guys are going to increasingly try to take out Trump, we've done it to them. It's obviously a strategy that's very high risk in terms of you don't know what America looks like on the back of if we know, like let's say that Iran takes him out and like, let's really do the big one. He's on the Qatari jet, Air Force One. So they gift us a plane for people that don't know, they gift us a plane, it's like $400 million, Trump's just beyond himself, super excited, gold plated, this is all real. So he takes the plane, even though everyone's like, what the fuck are you doing?

• 13:58Speaker 00

  Takes the plane, flies it to Turkey and everything pops back off in Iran. Everyone's like, uh, hold on, Trump, this is crazy. What are you doing? You cannot fly back on that plane. You need to go back to the old Air Force One. Run a scenario where he's fly, he refuses, he didn't, he actually goes back to the old one, thank God. But let's say that he had gotten on the new one and low and behold, we find that it either doesn't have the defenses that it needs or that it had a weakness that Iran could exploit and they end up crashing the plane or striking the plane or whatever. And just claim it and say, we did it, we did it like this, fuck you guys, we're coming for you.

• 14:42Speaker 00

  Like we can touch you in ways you don't understand. We've got fools in Cuba, we've got sleeper cells in the US, which by the way, is almost all certainly true. And so if that had happened, Iran should not be surprised if that ignites the base. Let's say JD Vance comes in, but now it's an angry JD Vance who's like, we can't have somebody attack our country. And now we've got the cover that we need politically to go absolutely ballistic and start just completely dismantling Iran. So this is a FAFO that I think we've encountered in Iran where it's like, yes, you've, he's so proud, Trump is so proud of, I've taken out two layers of leadership, maybe I'm about to take out the third. And it's like, well, are they getting friendlier? Are they getting like better at diplomacy? No, we're going in the exact opposite direction.

• 15:27Speaker 00

  So you're getting more and more hardliners. And I would not be surprised to see the same thing happen in the US. So it's like, man, all of this stuff is ill advised. This is why truly, and I, I absolutely mourn for our man Ryan over here, who growing up as a Gen Z-er does not understand what global peace really look like in the West. Obviously there's always going to be problem areas, but it was an unprecedented period of peace post-World War II until really the early 2000s, when we start having economic woes. But like, man, that stretch was just unbelievable. It's the period where China pulls 800 million people out of poverty. Untold global prosperity.

• 16:12Speaker 00

  I mean, just the, the wealth of nations going up, up, up, up, up. I get it's not distributed in the way people want and all that, and we could talk about that. But that period where you had essentially a hegemon, certainly once the Cold War ended, it was, you, you can hate America all you want, but globally it was awesome. And at least for this period, and maybe it's very brief, but for this period, that is not what we have. And we have escalating tensions. We've got the US and Canada on the verge of a trade war for the love of God. You've got Canada embracing China. You've got China now saying, hey, we're going beyond the China Sea, we're going into the Pacific. And so obviously they're targeting Taiwan, like Jesus, man, there's just so much instability.

• 16:55Speaker 00

  And you're going to see the instability get worse if we really do have, let's say China starts really asserting itself. You've got the US is certainly not going to back down. If Iran is able to come out of this as a hegemon in the Middle East, yikes. Like that becomes a very unstable, very violent, very economically turbulent world that is not going to be fun. And as technology gets better and better, could you see things start showing up in Cuba? Weaponry that can hit the US and now the US feels like we've got to go hit Cuba. Dude, it's like, all of this can end very, very badly. So this is one of those where I just kept thinking to myself over the weekend, man,

• 17:39Speaker 00

  you live by the sword, you die by the sword. Again, that's not me saying that America should back down, it's too late for that. But that is me saying, yo, like FAFO is a multi-directional thing because none of this stuff is ever going to go smoothly the way that you want. There are always going to be unintended consequences. Those could be 9/11, those could be, again, that's not me saying America deserved 9/11. That's just me saying that shit happens. And so if you give people enough reason to hate you, hate you, they will, especially if they've already just come in with some either religiously animated beef or because they've got cultural and religious beef with Israel and we're the best of partners with Israel, like whatever, but like those things have knock on effects.

• 18:24Speaker 00

  And we're now dealing with those because America has weakened itself so much over the years. So this one is.

• 18:34Speaker 00

  On the back of your question and my theoretical answer, I cannot help but come back to, this is not, this is not necessarily avoidable, all the conflict because of just the dynamics globally, but it shouldn't be coveted. And so when I hear people coveting and getting like all their blood pumping, that's where I'm like, oh, man, I don't think people are being realistic about how badly things break when this happens. Uh, we've had world wars before. They are devastating economically, life. I mean, it's just unbelievable. And they'll wage for years, man. So that's not a position we want to find ourselves in and we're getting dangerously close to it.

• 19:15Speaker 00

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• 22:37Speaker 00

  Thanks for sticking around. Let's get right back into the action.

• 22:41Speaker 01

  Yeah. Uh, comment of the day candidate, known as Dan Smith said, when someone at the average lifespan age dies, at the average lifespan age, conspiracy. So it is, I guess, a well-kept old person died of overeating who frequented McDonald's with his coworker. I feel like that's not, uh, if that was a regular headline in Arkansas somewhere, we'd be like, yeah, that makes sense, but because it's a...

• 23:07Speaker 00

  I'd be like, uh, hey, guy dies at 71. Um, Tom, you have to tell me, uh, is this nefarious? The first thing I'm going to ask is, uh, is he obese? And if he's obese, what'd the medical reports say? Oh, heart disease or, um, circulatory disease? Yeah. Look, this, unfortunately, the most dangerous thing that people do every day is eat bad food. And it, look, it takes a long time to stack up, but stack up it does. So this one to me is not weird. I think in the fullness of time, we're going to realize this was just a guy with a bad diet and bad exercise habits. And it is what it is. Um, and so I expect all the conspiratorial stuff to mostly die down

• 23:50Speaker 00

  and sort of get pushed back to the corners. But this one was fast, like the, the number of conspiracies. That was the one that got me. And in fact, if I can just address everybody out there. When you have like a really easy answer to something, remember I do this to myself all the time when it comes to the DSA and Mom Donnie, because it is so emotionally satisfying for me. So I know I'm at my most at risk there. If you're like, if you just think the Jews are responsible for everything and a guy dies of heart disease and your immediate thing is the Mossad got him to send a warning to, uh, Trump, but then everybody else, if they're like a Russia hawk, they're like Russia did it. Um, that's when, and obviously if you're an Iran hawk and you think Iran did it, that's where you gotta be like, all right, like we should probably pump the brakes here.

• 24:35Speaker 00

  Let's let the facts come out, uh, and then go from there. It's just, we're getting into a place where everybody has their narrative and every data point fits that narrative. And nobody's like, what's the disconfirming evidence?

• 24:50Speaker 01

  Well, keeping the conspiracy train going, uh, Mitch McConnell released a statement. I'm not going to read it. I don't think it was real.

• 24:57Speaker 00

  Speaking of, man, speaking of, wait, wait, wait, wait. I gotta see it because I haven't seen this. What's it say?

• 25:03Speaker 01

  The statement is, it's like four paragraphs.

• 25:05Speaker 00

  Oh damn, okay. We're not going to read the whole thing, but...

• 25:07Speaker 01

  I'm sorry that happened to you or good luck with that.

• 25:10Speaker 00

  This is from Mitch?

• 25:11Speaker 01

  Yeah, this is from...

• 25:12Speaker 00

  Supposedly.

• 25:12Speaker 01

  Supposedly, yeah. But it's a baby. Um, I liked it. Um, I'm doing okay. Uh, I, me in the lane have appreciated the well wishes.

• 25:22Speaker 00

  And wasn't it something like, I slipped and fell and that's why I went to the hospital? That was the one thing I saw.

• 25:26Speaker 01

  My doctors have confirmed that I didn't break any bones or suffer a concussion. I didn't have a heart attack or a stroke. I don't have any tumors or hemorrhages, but I was briefly unconscious, was taken to the hospital while receiving excellent care over the past few weeks. I had to deal with a mild case of pneumonia.

• 25:39Speaker 00

  All right. We're gonna see, we're gonna see.

• 25:41Speaker 01

  People are calling it out because it seems like he's sitting there upright, holding a newspaper. And then they said, hey, let's look at the newspaper he's reading and that's a lot of Y's for, and for a Yankee hat.

• 25:53Speaker 00

  Oh, oh, wait, wait, wait, wait. Is that real?

• 25:56Speaker 01

  Yeah, this is, it was zoomed in and then there's a couple of people under it on...

• 26:00Speaker 00

  Wait, wait, wait. Go click on the full photo right there and then zoom in on that.

• 26:04Speaker 01

  It's pixelated. We're not going to see that.

• 26:05Speaker 00

  Okay, so...

• 26:06Speaker 01

  But even, even from here, I could see that the NY logo looks janky.

• 26:09Speaker 00

  Yeah. Oh, man. Okay.

• 26:11Speaker 01

  We have a resident baseball fan in the, in the, you know, anybody wants to...

• 26:15Speaker 00

  Okay, let me, I'm just going to diatribe for a second on AI.

• 26:18Speaker 01

  Some people like Grock did, is this image? Grock said yes. When people zoomed in on it, you could still kind of see the...

• 26:25Speaker 00

  Grock said it's AI or it's real?

• 26:26Speaker 01

  Grock said it was AI.

• 26:27Speaker 00

  Interesting.

• 26:28Speaker 01

  Yes, it's AI. But okay, we'll see.

• 26:30Speaker 00

  So here, it, as a PSA to all the people out there that would like to bamboozle the public with fake AI imagery, will you please do me a favor? Take your image, break it into quadrants, like, or, or many, many small boxes. And go look box by, box by box, tick them off as you have looked at them to see if there are weird artifacts. Because that is going to be done by the sleuths on the internet and the fact that people do not do this is so crazy to me. AI will leave the weirdest fucking artifacts that can be cleaned up in Photoshop. You guys don't have to live like this. Your AI is better than that, man. It's like people trying to do this stuff way too fast. I do not understand. Go in and clean up your fucking images. Like if you're going to lie, lie all the way. Like, don't do this half-assed weak bullshit.

• 27:15Speaker 00

  That's why I'm like, wait, did somebody doctor, is that the photo like that actually came from his account? That's where this is just like, do I really have to be mad on top of the fact that you're lying, that you lie poorly? Like that's where this gets really obnoxious. It is as if people do not understand the weaknesses of AI. I don't get it. That's so crazy. By the way, if somebody's doing well, they'll send you a video. If they're secretly doing poorly, they're going to send you a photo just to be very real with you. It's pretty easy to walk in, have one of his aides walk in and be like, Senator, listen, um, or Congressman, he's Senator, Congress.

• 27:54Speaker 01

  Uh, Congress.

• 27:55Speaker 00

  It says right there, Senate floor. Uh, we're going to have to get back on the...

• 27:57Speaker 01

  Oh, Senate floor. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

• 27:58Speaker 00

  So, uh, you've got a Senator, um, you're important to the public. So, hey, Mitch, real fast, I'm just going to record a video, say the date, say what's up, just let people know you're good. That's it. It doesn't have to be anything fancy. And then you release it. So the fact that they don't do that, like you're just, you're making it possible for people to run with the narrative. It's how I felt like, do you remember that long weekend where everybody thought Trump had died? And they were like trying to hide it?

• 28:23Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 28:24Speaker 00

  And look, I'm sure he's busy and all that, but I was just like, bro, put out a quick video. Yes, people are going to say that it's AI, blah, blah, blah, just like they did with Netanyahu. But at least like you give anchored people some, something to go off of.

• 28:39Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 28:39Speaker 00

  But...

• 28:40Speaker 01

  And, and that's the thing, we do have to disclaimer because everybody swore, um, Netanyahu was dead. And it was the four fingers on the coffee and all these other things. So it's one of those, it sounds good. It feels like there's something there. It is mysterious how he's not having a video. He's not releasing his statement. Other people aren't commenting.

• 28:57Speaker 00

  I just have a feeling he was legitimately doing poorly and he's in such frail health that they didn't want to show that he was really struggling. Thankfully he got back on his feet. But it's, I get why people want to know what the condition of their elected officials are. So yeah, we have routinely, like there was somebody, I forget what their, um, exact role was in the government, but this was several years ago, but they disappeared for like... I don't know, a month or two months or something. Nobody knew where they were. They ended up being in the hospital and having some like fairly uh robust surgery and it was like just crickets. So, yeah, I don't know.

• 29:37Speaker 01

  Perfect time to, you know, do age limits on Senate, you know?

• 29:41Speaker 00

  And term limits.

• 29:41Speaker 01

  And term limits. Eighty year old judges, seventy year old politicians, they're dropping like flies. Maybe this is a signing.

• 29:49Speaker 00

  Also, man, I hate to say this. Oh God, am I really gonna say this out loud? Sure. Um, when it comes to interviewing guests, if somebody suggests somebody to me that's old, I go watch how well they speak. Because while it doesn't guarantee that you're no longer sharp, the odds are that you're no longer sharp. And so it's just like the fact that we let people rock that long is so crazy. Now, look, demographics are destiny. I get it. We have a ton of boomers that have just been able to keep these guys going forever in terms of getting reelected. That's pretty wild.

• 30:27Speaker 00

  I, I would advise all people, young and old, um, it's about sharpness. It isn't about age, but age is a flag where you need to be like, is this person still sharp?

• 30:40Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 30:41Speaker 00

  Uh, and yeah, so again, man, age comes for us all. Nobody knows that better than me, but boy, oh, boy. Do we have to be honest about the fact that age comes for us all?

• 30:53Speaker 01

  Yep. All right. While we're talking about international conspiracy theories and foreign actors, let's actually go to the war that we're fighting. Oh, I'm sorry. It's not a war. It was a conflict, a misunderstanding. I forgot what he, the last.

• 31:03Speaker 00

  You can't call it a war four hundred and eighty-six times and then be like, no, psych, just kidding.

• 31:07Speaker 01

  Yeah, whatever he called it, um, in Iran.

• 31:10Speaker 00

  Over and over and over and over.

• 31:12Speaker 01

  Epic Fury. Epic Fury. Yeah. Operation Epic Fury. Let's get to Epic Fury. Um, so round three is complete. A new round of targets, a new round of bombings. Set it up for us, Tom.

• 31:22Speaker 00

  All right. Well, Trump has stopped talking about bombing Iran back into the Stone Age and now he's just doing it. Saturday night, US Central Command hit roughly one hundred and forty Iranian military targets in a single round of strikes. This is the largest since the June ceasefire was signed. Trump also put out a true social saying that he has a thousand more missiles locked and loaded. Should Iran attempt to assassinate him again, whether they do it or not, he's ready to fight. So far, the US has hit missile sites, drone launch facilities, naval assets, ammunition storage, communication networks, coastal surveillance. All of it, obviously trying to wrestle control away from them as far as the straight goes.

• 32:06Speaker 00

  So far, it's still being done from the air. They're hitting everything with precise munitions. Launched from like fighter jets, drones, warships. This is good news. This is exactly what we should want them to do. We certainly do not want to see troops on the ground, but also remember Iran is not dumb. They have been planning for this kind of retaliation for a long time. They have buried things very deep. They have these tunnels that we are gonna have to find some way to get inside to destroy the tunnels. Again, ideally without actually boots on the ground. So what's gonna be that next level of innovation? I'm sure there's somebody that has been pointing out for decades that the bunker buster bombs have a weakness that can be fixed in XYZ way.

• 32:48Speaker 00

  And so it's about actually having the um impetus to go in and actually make those things. But never underestimate engineers and what they are capable of doing. I mean, we've, we saw with the strike on Fordow that they could drop bombs into like ventilation shafts to get way deeper in. And so this will be a constant cat and mouse game as uh Iran and other adversaries find ways to bury things deeper and deeper. Finding ways to um get around that. I have no idea what that's going to be, but I would not bet against people finding a way to solve that problem. So we are absolutely gonna have to do that as this sort of latest round of

• 33:27Speaker 00

  um military build outs with these countries that understand that they have an asymmetric disadvantage against the US uh in terms of air superiority. And so they've just gone down. They know what the weapons are that we have. They know how far they can penetrate. And so they try to get the majority of them deep enough that they can't be hit. And so that's gonna have to be something that we end up cracking. It's gonna need to be conventional. Obviously, dropping nukes uh might solve the problem, but it creates one that is much, much, much, much bigger, more devastating, more terrifying, more globally uh destructive. Obviously, we should not be going down that path. But you can expect them to try to find some way uh to get in there and deal with that. So um yeah, we'll see how this ends up playing out. The US has now struck more than three hundred targets across the week.

• 34:12Speaker 00

  The heaviest sustained bombing since the war supposedly ended back with the MOU, but I think we all knew that was never going to last. I didn't hear anybody saying, yeah, this is actually gonna get across the finish line. If you read the MOU, it was ridiculous. It was the most vague, mealy mouth bullshit ever. Uh, I was shocked that the markets were actually like, yeah, this is cool. I was just like, this is not gonna go anywhere. This is obviously going to fall apart. Remember. Uh, everybody should build a mental map of Iran for themselves. My mental map goes like this. Every diplomat that has ever interfaced with them, not just in the US, but all of the Western diplomats that have interfaced with them have said the same thing. These guys are extraordinarily good at negotiating because what they do is they buy themselves time.

• 34:55Speaker 00

  They say they're gonna do one thing, then they do another. Then they're like, oh my God, so sorry. I can't believe that happened. No, that wasn't what we meant to do. And so that's precisely what Trump is saying because the latest round of these attacks, he says, is because the IRGC attacked the GFS Galaxy, a Cyprus flag container ship that was transiting the Strait of Hormuz. This is like the playbook over and over and over. Trump said, we literally walked out of negotiations where Iran told us we were gonna get everything that we were drumming on about. And then an hour later, they send a drone at this Cyprus flagship. So

• 35:31Speaker 00

  eh, like if we know that's their MO and we have a hyper vague MOU and the Iranians are going on state media and saying over and over and over. We are not agreeing to those things. They're crazy. I don't know why Trump keeps saying it. It's all a lie. This is what we're really doing. And then they really go do things that are far more in line with what they're saying out loud. You can just assume that they're buying themselves time in the negotiations. So um I'm seeing analysts out of the UAE saying the same thing, like you guys are delusional if you think that you can negotiate with them. Now, as you can imagine, this brings me back to, this is culture. So uh I grow increasingly annoyed by people that say you cannot extrapolate anything from what happened in Japan.

• 36:14Speaker 00

  And I will say, unless you think that quantum randomness somehow is just way more a play with Japan than it is anywhere else. What it shows is Japan had a certain setup, a certain culture, uh the way that they ended the war, how fatigued they were even before Pearl Harbor. So you already had people struggling with malnutrition before Pearl Harbor. Okay, so let that sink in. America hasn't even joined the fight yet. They're already getting super fatigued. You already have the troops on the ground hate their leadership. And they end up murdering some of them after the war ends. So it's like all of that's playing out.

• 36:52Speaker 00

  You nuke twice and you go in, American, most American uh attention is in Europe. So you have this general uh who's basically just running it like a, like he is a dictator, truly. He's impacting legislation. He's uh got all of the powers of a US president would have over the US. Plus, like things where he can just buy fiat, create legislation in Japan, ends up working. Obviously, Japan ends up being in this extraordinary story. How does that relate to what's going on in Iran? Value system matters. So if Japan is fatigued, Japan wants to let go of its imperialistic ambitions because it has not been playing out well for them.

• 37:31Speaker 00

  They want to move in a new direction and then somebody comes in and says, hey, we're gonna give you all these freedoms, freedom of speech, freedom to uh protest, things that they didn't have historically. And their belief in their supreme leader, their emperor, like who was supposedly I can't believe people believe this. And this is, World War Two to me is still the modern era. They believed that he was a god or god adjacent. So like, imagine that. And so when he's like, hey, we gotta go to war. We gotta kill these people. You're like, well, God's telling us we gotta do it. Like, that shit is wild. The US was smart enough to go, ah, we're gonna use that as a way to get that person to say, all these new freedoms. These are good things.

• 38:16Speaker 00

  This is what you should want. It was really brilliant. So you've gotta be honest about what the, the culture is, the value system is in the Middle East. And if you mismap that, you will forever fail to get what you want out of the Middle East because you're not aligned with the way that they are. So you can go give Japan freedoms, they take to it. You try to do it in Afghanistan, it doesn't work. You have a different value set. It is not that Japan is some crazy outlier. It's that we actually, whether we did it on accident or not, is irrelevant. The things that we tried to give them were in line with where they were psychologically, from a value setup, all of that, at the time that we tried to do it. We had been so out of step. Like, imagine trying to take DEI to Afghanistan.

• 39:01Speaker 00

  Are you out of your fucking minds? So it's like, that kind of thing is just absolutely asinine because people are not being honest about values are the thing that drive what people will kill and die for. And so if you've got people willing to kill and die for a certain ideology and you're 180 degrees in the opposite direction of that, do not expect it to go well. You're not going to be able to introduce freedoms that they don't want. So that's where I think this continues to be us beating our heads against the wall. And people in the Middle East have been saying for years that trying to go and do Western-style diplomacy with Iran is never, ever, ever going to work. And there are plenty of people saying that the way that Iran

• 39:42Speaker 00

  has read the Trump administration's negotiation tactics is weakness. It isn't like, oh, but he wants to get this economic deal done. They're like, fuck this kid. He's weak, he's in a super weak position. All of his concessions, like, they're, they're all a sign that he does not have the leverage that he thinks he has. Uh, I don't know if this report can be believed, but I heard a report over the weekend that, um, Araguchi, I believe that's how you say his name, basically the guy that we interface with, that we always see publicly speaking on behalf of Iran, that he had rocks thrown at him during, uh, Khomeini's funeral because the hardliners think that he's an appeaser. So imagine just trying to end the attacks in Iran with the world's vaguest MOU that gave them plenty of options to get out,

• 40:27Speaker 00

  them all trying to control the Strait of Hormuz. That was considered appeasement. So when you've got people that hardcore and you're trying to come in and be diplomatic and come on, we all want a nice economic end to this, uh, which, boy, do I wish were true, but we're not getting indications that that stuff actually is true. So that's where it's like, can, expect this to continue to be a clown show because we're not in alignment with what they actually want. Remember, they chant, "Death to America, death to Israel. Name us the big Satan, Israel the little Satan." Um, that they want the state of Israel to cease to exist. Those are the, they're telling you who they are

• 41:11Speaker 00

  and we're negotiating as if they're not telling us who they are. Now, what that means in terms of how you actually get what we want out of this, that's a whole nother discussion. That probably involves a lot of bombs, but nonetheless, has to be disentangled from what we want to be true versus what actually is true.

• 41:35Speaker 00

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• 42:20Speaker 00

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• 42:41Speaker 00

  Thanks for sticking around. Let's get right back into the action.

• 42:46Speaker 01

  That brings me to the chanting. I don't mean to, like, fractal, but Tim Dillon did a good bit on, like, we can't handle people chanting "Death to America." On that, before I get to that, though, uh, it's a bit more comedic.

• 43:01Speaker 01

  It's, it's, it's giving quagmire. It's giving, we're kind of stuck. We have-

• 43:05Speaker 00

  It's giving quagmire.

• 43:06Speaker 01

  Yeah, like-

• 43:07Speaker 00

  Tell me you have a 15-year-old daughter.

• 43:10Speaker 01

  My house is surrounded by teenagers. I'm sorry, I'm getting indoctrinated. It's one of those things where, how you just laid it out, even the negotiation is viewed as, as like, subject, like, they, we can't even get to the table to have the conversation. And that's the issue, so.

• 43:28Speaker 01

  Like, what do you, like, what do, like, where do we go from here? Like, is, is it now we have to flip into that total war switch? Like, we can't negotiate with each other.

• 43:35Speaker 00

  I really think total war is over. Uh, okay, what do I really think? Uh, total war is over until something so tragic happens that it absolutely forces some country to cross a line and then everybody's like, yeah, we're just really in it now. We're doing this, um, hey, we're still, like, you know, this is still that period of peace. We don't have to do this. The US and China don't have to end up in a kinetic war. Uh, this thing in Iran, it can settle down. We can negotiate this. Hey, Russia, like, come on, you know, chill. Like, let's, let's restabilize. We don't invade countries anymore. Like, we're still in that, no, no, no, things can go back to the way they were phase. And to be honest, I want it to be true so badly that you need to let it play out, even though I don't believe it anymore.

• 44:18Speaker 00

  You still need to do the thing because it, it is so catastrophic, the other option. Okay, because of that, for now, total warfare, I think, is still off the table. Uh, you would need some sort of cataclysmic breaking point.

• 44:34Speaker 00

  What you will end up, you, you have to run it as a thought experiment. Of course, uh, what you hope is that, hey, the hardliners are losing energy. There's enough pushback in Iran. The people are rising up again. These guys understand that they have to begin, um, softening as a way to maintain power. So they would have to believe that that is a strategy that keeps them in power for them to actually begin backing off and softening. And so that's what you wanna see play out. So if you're Trump, you've got, like, a list of targets. You did the surgical ones in the beginning. They were all military installations. It's all the radars, all that. Now, remember, unless my memory is faulty,

• 45:16Speaker 00

  Trump literally said, we're either out of targets or we're almost out of targets. So the fact that he's now going crazy, we've now entered into a different phase of the attacks. These are not the same style attacks that we had before. This is far less surgical. This is flirting with the, we're gonna just destroy your infrastructure. Now, they haven't gone all the way to that yet, so we're in sort of this gray zone of what we're hitting. I don't think the next step is total warfare, but I do think the next step is, and now even your average citizens are going to suffer because we're just gonna start taking out your oil infrastructure. Uh, we're going to take out normal roads and things like that. And at that point, if you've got them in an economic chokehold

• 45:59Speaker 00

  and you're taking out infrastructure that's gonna take them three to 10 years to rebuild, depending on how extensive the damage is, now all of a sudden, it's like, okay, we're really in dire straits because even in our own country, despite being as oil-rich as we are, we're not able to get the energy needs in our own country that we need. Then, if we can degrade their technological capabilities such that if a fast boat hits the water in the strait, boom, it's hit immediately. Uh, if we see a radar installation, even if it's for civilian airports, we're gonna take that out. And you just literally level anything that can ping a signal, do anything, and you just watch the exits to the tunnels like a hawk. Every time they send one out, you map back where it is

• 46:44Speaker 00

  and you just literally mow the grass all the time. You're just constantly striking the entrances and exits to these tunnels over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over. Until finally, these guys are so financially destitute that, that they, they, by default, aren't in power anymore. You've got a currency that's hyperinflating, all that. That's how I think this will go. He'll just keep pushing the envelope. What, in, in terms of the things that he strikes, until the country economically is just so broken that at that point, they, um, they're unable to damage their, um, regional groups. So they're, they're not able to hit the UAE. They're not able to hit Saudi Arabia. They're not able to hit Qatar and Oman and all that. Okay, so that would be one.

• 47:29Speaker 00

  Then, if they can't fund their proxies, now, let's say, you defang financially Hezbollah to the point where Lebanon can actually get them out of their country. Now, like, I'm, I'm getting way out of my skis here, but this would be incredible. So a Lebanon, people, voices in Lebanon, again, I never know if I'm, it's a 2% thing and the propaganda's just making its way into my feed or it actually represents a massive amount. But I'm seeing, uh, more people coming out of Lebanon saying, hey, we don't want Iran in our country. So we would much rather normalize things with Israel. We, our beef isn't with Israel. Our beef is with Iran, using our land as a way to get at Israel, and that has weakened us also.

• 48:14Speaker 00

  And now, again, this is-

• 48:18Speaker 00

  This is a hypothesis, but Lebanon used to be a Christian country. The Iranian influence coming in on the back of Islamic influence. And so now it becomes a question of what's that split? Some reports that I've seen is that Lebanon is still like 40% Christian. So is there that battle to be fought and won as you defang Iran? Are you able to start heading back towards where the Paris of the Middle East? You're a very, very long way from that right now. But if Iran is damaged to the point where they cease to be an influence, what natural flowers begin to spring up in the region? We don't know, but it will certainly be interesting to see.

• 49:03Speaker 00

  So that's how I see this rolling out. So first it was these really surgical military only. Now it's sort of these gray zone strikes. I think outside of this, if it continues to escalate, you get into just absolute economic infrastructure damage. And then we see what happens outside of that. Now we've got the midterms between here and there. But the crazy thing is, boys and girls, we're going to get into this. Oil is not doing what you'd expect. So Trump isn't going to necessarily have the economic headwinds caused by oil coming into the midterms. I think he's got other economic concerns, but it's probably not going to be, at least on our shores, you're not going to see a big economic impact from what's going on in the Strait of Hormuz, which is crazy.

• 49:48Speaker 00

  It was not on my bingo card that the markets would be so blasé about the fact that we're back to ultra violence in the area. So that tells you something. We'll get into what something that tells you in a minute. But that's very interesting. Now, if that holds and that actually ends up being true and the economy shaky, but it's not on terrible ground. Oil isn't insane. Let's say it's hovering around $75 to $80, right? Livable, not great, but livable. Then I still think Trump loses the midterms just because he's been a wrecking ball. And I think people are going to vote against that. But if you've got him able to do executive orders and just keep the bombings happening there, not at war, of course, that will be his argument.

• 50:33Speaker 00

  And you are able to spend two and a half more years just kicking the shit out of Iran. Yeah, I don't think economically they get on the other side of this. And so Trump is showing that he really does have the will, at least as much as the stock market will allow, to go back to the heavy strikes. So we'll see. I wasn't sure that he was going to. Clearly he does have that resolve.

• 50:58Speaker 01

  Yeah, we'll monitor it. All right, let's jump over to Tim Dillon and his comments on the situation.

• 51:02Speaker 02

  When they chant death to the United States, they have no compunction about using these weapons.

• 51:08Speaker 03

  Right, all right. That's what they're going to do when they chant. They're going to chant the chemical weapons into the country, by the way, with the chanting. This is the craziest thing I've ever heard. He's like, you hear what they chant? By the way, you know what they chant at like soccer games? They chant all kinds of like, is this the standard of proof now? Is that the line that can't be crossed is chanting death to America? What do you mean, we can't handle death to America? We can't handle people chanting death to America? I take more shit on that in comments. Like, this is crazy and so does anyone who's on the internet. This is what

• 51:46Speaker 00

  He, listen, first of all, Tim Dillon is absolutely hilarious. He's also very insightful, which is a wonderful combination. He's right about the fact that we say all kinds of unhinged shit. There are plenty of people that you can find, I'm sure, going on the Senate floor or the congressional floor and talking about needing to bomb this, that, or the other, whether it's Iran, whether it's Russia, just war mongering, beating that drum like crazy. But they should believe us. And when we say we're going to do it and we really do do it, you should go, oh, that really is what America is about. And that's why even in America, we've got our memes of like, oh, you found oil, you need some more freedom. And insert shot of a building getting struck.

• 52:30Speaker 00

  They should believe us when we say that kind of shit. And Netanyahu's point, say what you will, because Netanyahu, remember, you can find clips of Netanyahu saying, what do you do when a man is coming to kill you? And by the way, this is a Bible verse, Old Testament. What do you do when a man is coming to kill you? You rise early and kill them first. You should believe him. If they think you're coming after them, they're going to rise early and kill you first. You should believe them. When Iran chants death to America, you should believe them. So that's where I'm like, yes, it is funny. And yes, people on the internet can be read in a totally different way. And it is unhinged, man. It, once you come on to the internet, what people say is wild.

• 53:12Speaker 00

  But that's a different game to me than when you have governments and members of the government saying this is what we should do. Because they are specifically saying it should try to get people on board with that idea. Somebody on the internet is lashing out emotionally. But when you hear the Republican Party say this is our, like, what was it? The, God, there was that document when Trump was running. Oh, somebody's going to know what this is. There was like the America 2025 project.

• 53:41Speaker 00

  You should have believed them. They laid it out. These, this is like an official think tank, boys and girls, putting a thing together that says some percentage of the Republican Party believes this. You should believe them. So when you have official organizations telling you who they are, DSA, I'm looking at you. And they say, this is what we're about. You should believe them. Now, very different than somebody who's popping off in the comments on YouTube feeds, very funny joke. But in terms of the reality,

• 54:09Speaker 00

  you probably shouldn't believe those people, but you should absolutely believe official government bodies and think tanks when they tell you this is what we think should happen because they're the ones behind the scenes trying to make that happen, trying to get the right people elected, trying to get the right policies passed, trying to sway the public, manipulating the media, all of that, to get everybody on board with those ideas. So you, again, funny when you liken it to soccer chants, but like the Iranians actually kill people. The US actually kill people. So this is where it's like, yeah, you can probably take those chants that are happening in their version of parliament a lot more seriously than a soccer chant or a comment online.

• 54:53Speaker 00

  This goes back to what I'm saying about values. If you've mismatched their values and you think, ah, they're just teasing, you're going to be confused when they really are pursuing that agenda.

• 55:02Speaker 01

  Let's get over to Canada and this pending trade war. So I knew we got out of the deal, but I didn't know it was going to escalate this way. So I don't know if you want to start with the video or you want to set it up for us first.

• 55:14Speaker 00

  So technically we're not out of the deal, but we have now put it on like this yearly cadence. But my real question is, are the US and Canada really about to stumble into a full blown trade war? And the answer is maybe. So this is actually starting to get bizarre. And to understand why this is playing out, you've got to understand how close Canada and China are becoming. And to understand that, you have to understand how far left Canada is going. Now, on July 1st, the Trump administration did refuse to renew the USMCA. That's the trade deal that Trump himself, by the way, used to champion. He was saying it's the best agreement ever made. Refusing to renew it, though, doesn't kill it. It just creates a totally different like time review cycle.

• 55:59Speaker 00

  So every year now, it's going to be reviewed instead of being locked into a 16 year extension. So there, if you imagine every year, it opens this window to go in and say, we're not getting enough either side to try to squeeze the other or just outright blow it up. Now, Trump obviously is making his position clear. He said, and this is a quote, "We don't need anything that Canada has. They have to treat us better." Now, to make sense of that, you need to understand that the US, it's like 72% of our GDP is us spending money. So not only are we either the biggest economy or tied for first or maybe slightly second on some aspects with China, but we're one of the big boys. But the reason that we're more important to the world than China

• 56:44Speaker 00

  is because we buy stuff. This is part of how we were able to help the world get out of the calamity of World War II, was our economy was thriving so hard that all the other economies could start building themselves up, trying to sell into America. Now, this is also what ends up being a part of glutting our manufacturing base. So it doesn't end up just being a bonus. But it makes us systemically important to the world in a way that virtually that nobody is on the expenditure standpoint. And so we may not have the biggest population, but by far we have the wealthiest and most likely to spend money. And so the world is constantly trying to make things and sell to us. So Canada is going to want to sell things to us.

• 57:29Speaker 00

  That's going to be a huge part of their economy and Washington knows that. That's part of why we know we have leverage. We can go to China and we're in bilateral talks with them right now. In fact, round three kicks off on July 20th. But with Canada, nope, we're just, the formal negotiations haven't even started. So Trump knows you guys need us more than we need you, which is almost certainly true. Trump's own trade chief, Jameson Greer, told lawmakers that only two countries retaliated economically against the US last year, China and Canada, and that's why we're putting the stick to them. So, understanding that we're, we talked about this a lot in the early days of the live,

• 58:11Speaker 00

  was that the US is very much in late-stage empire moment. The world order is changing dramatically and the US now has to play some of its cards if it wants to press the leverage that it has. If you play poker, you know, when you're a big stack, you can bully people around the table with the betting and push some people out. And if nothing else, you can take people's blinds. And so what you see now, at least with Trump, is that. He can see that we're still big stack, but big stack is dwindling very rapidly. And so we've got to start using some bully tactics if we want to take advantage of being big stack, because it's not necessarily going to last forever, certainly not with the debt looming.

• 58:56Speaker 00

  And so he's really starting to push the advantage with Canada, with Europe, with China, like just trying to establish us as a, he would want to see us as a rising power, but as a more stabilized power if nothing else. And so, understanding that trade is going to continue to be an area where we really flex our muscle is important to understanding why things are getting weird with Canada, even though, you know, they've long been the neighbor that we never even had to think about. There was no problems, nothing bad coming out. But now, when you've got in January, Prime Minister Mark Carney going to Beijing, meeting

• 59:34Speaker 00

  with Xi, cutting Canada's tariff on China's EVs from 100% down to 6.1%, the US is gonna like take notice, especially when in exchange, China slashes its canola tariffs from 84% to 15%, reopening a $4 billion market for Canadian farmers. Now, just keep in mind, don't eat canola oil. It's probably one of the reasons that Lindsey Graham died, just throwing that out there. But, I'm not kidding about that at all. But nonetheless, that's a, you see like a lot of exchange now going on between China. So there used to be far more standoffishness between Canada and China.

• 1:00:14Speaker 00

  Obviously, the US is saying, hey, if you start creating friction with us and reducing friction with China, we're going to feel some type of way about that. So the fact that China and Canada are the two countries that are retaliating against the US, yeah, that's not going to go unanswered, that's for sure. So now, Trump's response is a threat to hit all Canadian goods with 100% tariff, which would be absolutely catastrophic for them, warning Carney that Canada will not become a quote "drop off port for Chinese products entering America." Now, here's something we haven't talked about. China's economy is in a rough spot. Not saying they're in some sort of death spiral or anything like that, but just like the US is in a rough spot, China's in a rough spot. Now, China doesn't create GDP by spending money.

• 1:00:59Speaker 00

  China's not rich like that, not like America. What China does is they export. Now, as tensions rise with the US, now you've got the biggest consumer economy being like, nah, we're going to take a lot less Chinese goods. Well, if you've been propping up manufacturing, as Xi has, now all of a sudden, those manufacturing plants have nowhere to send their goods. So they're sending them all over the world. Europe is already starting to feel it. So Europe is potentially, let's not get out over our skis, but potentially has friction now brewing between China and Europe. And so if China is not able to get goods into Europe, where else are they going to put them? Or how aggressive is China going to be against Europe?

• 1:01:42Speaker 00

  Because Europe is leaning on China for a lot of inexpensive goods. I'm sure a lot of European makers are doing manufacturing in China, which they could absolutely cut them off from. And so, again, just going back to this overall crazy level of instability. Not that, you know, catastrophe is upon us or anything like that, but it's like you can just feel, like if you've ever been in an earthquake, you have that initial feeling at the beginning where it's like, is this the beginning of something that's going to grow into something much bigger? Or is this a small thing that's going to peter out very quickly? That's where we don't know. But all of a sudden, we're on very shaky ground. It's a very unnerving feeling and nobody should feel like they can see the future clearly enough to know where this is going to go. But the fact that America has beef with China, or sorry, with Canada, is pretty crazy.

• 1:02:25Speaker 00

  So we'll see how this plays out, but if this escalates, I assure you, Canada is going to get hurt worse than the US, that is for sure. But we're all going to have to watch and pay attention to see how this plays out.

• 1:02:36Speaker 01

  What do you think is the downfall? Because somebody in the chat said the same thing. If Canada goes full China and lets a lot of it disassociates with the US, they're going to be hurt more than we are. What are the mechanisms you guys are seeing that make you so confident in that?

• 1:02:51Speaker 00

  Oh, because they'll do exactly what they're doing to Europe already, what they had a major impact on US during the WTO days, which is they're going to come in and they're going to make EVs so cheap in Europe that Europeans are never going to pay for a Europe-made car. And you're already seeing massive layoffs in the auto industry in Europe. That's going to continue to escalate. Any industry where China goes, we're going to take this, like imagine, look at what China's doing with solar. Solar's massive. Solar's the future. Just everybody brace themselves for that. So China's way ahead of everybody, I'd say even ahead of the US, and they're way, way, way ahead of Europe.

• 1:03:35Speaker 00

  So Europe has like green suicide plans. So they're like suiciding themselves from a green perspective. But if China could be like, hey, don't worry about it. You guys don't have to go back to coal, that's crazy. Let's get you hooked up with these solar panels that we're doing and batteries. And so that becomes the next, let's say, five to 10-year run. So now, instead of building their own solar and energy industry, they just go, oh, cool, China's going to export our stuff to us. That helps us continue down our green path. But now, like manufacturing is just going away and away and away. And so what ends up happening is you get this really weird race where it's like, okay, we are, so many people are getting laid off and we have such a big social welfare state

• 1:04:19Speaker 00

  that we've got to have some way to address this. And there are two ways. You make labor cheaper, immigrants, anybody? And you make the actual items cheaper. China, send me your cheapest EVs. So, and your solar panels and your batteries. And so China can subsidize those industries and manipulate their currency to make sure that Europe can buy the stuff cheaper. So now, Europe's economy is going down, their ability to build is going down, their labor force participation is going down, but what they can buy is holding flat enough that you're disguising how poor they're really getting. And then on top of that, because they have to keep funneling cheaper labor, they're going

• 1:05:03Speaker 00

  to keep doing the immigrant influx, but that's going to break their culture. And so ultimately, what ends up happening is European countries go into internal strife. They become more beholden to China because China can output such cheap stuff. They tried to get elected, they tried to mask that their economy is getting worse and worse and worse and worse. And now they're stuck, because you either go, we're going to have to eat it, it's going to be rough for 10 years. We're going to build back industry things, you're going to get more expensive, you're going to be able to afford less, you're going to be fine, you're going to be able to eat, we're going to get you on the other side of this. But we're not, we're going to have to massively reduce our welfare spend, which people will literally riot over. And that's going to be an absolute nightmare.

• 1:05:45Speaker 00

  But if they don't do that, they guarantee themselves like this slow decline into poverty and just like an absolutely decimated culture where there's no cultural stability because they brought in all these different cultural groups and it will lead to internal strife that makes it impossible for them to continue on as a wealthy Western country. It's, listen, that's if nobody ever hits the brakes. You see, like, look at Germany, and I know people have like a very emotional response to the AFD, but they continue to rise in popularity because they can see the economic reality of this playing out and they're like, no, no, no. Like, they're xenophobic, I'm sure, but it's like, in a moment where it's like you're

• 1:06:28Speaker 00

  just trying to bring in cheap labor, unfortunately, xenophobic candidates are going to have popularity. And unfortunately for all of us, that xenophobia, from a outcome perspective, is the same as just having sensible immigration. Now, it rides on the back of something nefarious, but it gets the job done. So that's where it's like, the likelihood of a far-right party continuing to gain power and influence goes up dramatically as the country gets poorer and poorer and has to bring in more and more cheap labor and more goods from China. Because some people, if they can't find work, it is a level of emotional distress that's massive.

• 1:07:10Speaker 00

  And so it's not like, well, as long as we can keep making things cheaper for them and keep the welfare state limping along, we're going to be fine. No. There are going to be some people that become the angry young men of it all, because they want a job, they can't get one, they have no sense of meaning and purpose, they don't break left, they break right. And we know how it went the last time Germany broke right, was not a good time.

• 1:07:31Speaker 01

  Um, I was talking about like, I'm assuming the same thing is true for Canada because you use Europe as the example. But if Canada links up with China, which they're already kind of doing, same example, same.

• 1:07:40Speaker 00

  Same exact play out now. China, or sorry, Canada does not have the same history that Europe has, so I would expect culturally for it to play out a little bit differently. Um, Canada has complained relatively little about getting impoverished over the last 20 years. It's crazy. When you look at Canada's decline economically on a chart, it's insane. Insane, man. They're not even gonna be in, I think they already fell out of the G7. It's like if they stay in the G20 for another 20 years at this rate, I'd be surprised.

• 1:08:10Speaker 01

  Uh, but as you were listening to some of these things, wages, um, or labor, you need to get cheaper labor or cheaper things. Immigrant influx, make prices cheaper, it's gonna destroy industries. I feel like you have described a lot of the things that we're seeing in America now as well.

• 1:08:24Speaker 00

  Well, so the WTO absolutely gutted our, um, manufacturing. So that battle we lost unfortunately a long time ago, because you can compare us to our peak like in the, call it 40s through 70s where it was like, we really fucking made shit. Then you see especially post 71 where we go, you know, it's gonna be our biggest thing, finance. And so we financialized everything. K-shaped economy starts in earnest, you start inflating the currency like mad, blah, blah, blah, things I've talked about a gazillion times. So it's like very similar consequences, but they happen for different reasons. And now we at least have a government that's in power that's like, no, hold on, we're not gonna keep doing this.

• 1:09:08Speaker 00

  We're going to, like with our boy Palmer Lucky, we're gonna start making things here. We're gonna leverage some of our historical know-how, automobiles being the thing that we do best. We're gonna start manufacturing that, we're gonna take some hits economically, things aren't gonna get as cheap as we want. We're not gonna pull in the cheap labor, we're not going to, um, do the China, just give me everything cheap that you've got. We're not gonna play that game. Now they have to find answers to how we keep the economy going because you have to get real wages up. Right now, unfortunately, real wages are dropping. So you've got real wages up like 3.2 or something like that, but inflation is at 4.1, 4.2. So on real terms, people are more than a percent behind, so not good news.

• 1:09:54Speaker 00

  Um, we, you have to reverse that. Now, maybe some of that comes down because we just start producing so much energy that we create a sort of energy deflation and that makes everything a little bit cheaper. And that's innovation-led, uh, deflation, not crisis-led deflation, so yay. Um, but yes, people are right to say, wait a second, I see a lot of those things here in the US. It's true, it's just not, we're not as far along. We're maybe five to 15 years behind Europe. Canada, Canada seems to be declining even faster than Europe, but I haven't compared the numbers closely enough to know that that's true. Um, but yeah, Canada is dropping much, much faster than the US.

• 1:10:33Speaker 01

  Yeah, um, and we're starting to see some of this weird macroeconomics play out on the global level, especially when we're talking about stocks, oil markets, things like that. That even with this war, we haven't seen the gas prices, uh, chop back up and stuff like that. So I know we have that queued up, kind of setting up what's gonna happen, how the oil futures haven't necessarily been matched up now that we've gone full panic mode and bombing everything in Iran, the MOU's done, all that stuff.

• 1:11:01Speaker 00

  This one is very interesting to me. So we're blowing things up in Iran again, but oil futures aren't moving up the way that you would expect. So what the hell is going on? Back in March, the mere threat of a closed Hormuz sent Brent to $119. Top analysts were forecasting, yo, this is going to $200 a barrel. But now what's happening? See, as far as dead as disco, baby. The US has bombed the life out of Iran for the better part of a week now. Tankers are being attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is claiming that the strait is closed, but only, but oil has only jumped by 4.4%. And then pretty much instantly gave it back within 24 hours, okay?

• 1:11:43Speaker 00

  WTI, which is like the US-based Texas oil rating, is roughly $72. So something strange is afoot at the Circle K. Let's, um, one thing that we have to start looking at is what are the supply and demand side of things that are going on? Because everybody thought this was gonna be a supply story where, um, hey, you close the Strait of Hormuz, you start bombing oil infrastructure, we're gonna be screwed, like there's gonna be a global recession and people aren't gonna be able to get what they need, it's game over. But I think people have completely misassessed the demand flexibility because people thought that oil demand, energy demand was pretty much inflexible.

• 1:12:28Speaker 00

  But Ken Griffin, uh, has a different take on what's going on. Let's take a look at this clip.

• 1:12:33Speaker 04

  Big picture, not only is there a war in the Middle East, there's still a raging war in Europe.

• 1:12:38Speaker 04

  And the peace that you and I grew up with for most of our adult lives is clearly not on the table right now.

• 1:12:43Speaker 00

  Toast.

• 1:12:43Speaker 04

  And for anybody following the situation in Cuba, there's obviously the potential threat of, of a, would be a reasonably small skirmish in Cuba, but yet another war. And at some point, do you encourage other countries around the world to increase their use of military power? We're gonna get to that. Okay, we'll get to that. So why, why are we seeing all-time highs in the S and P while there's a war in the Middle East? Number one is the United States is somewhat shielded from the energy crisis that this war is creating.

• 1:13:16Speaker 00

  That is a very important part of the story.

• 1:13:18Speaker 04

  Key transit point for energy, we all know these details. There's a couple of things that have been, I would say, upside surprises for the world economy. Number one is for a litany of reasons, China has been able to dramatically reduce their demand for oil. Much more elasticity of demand out of China than anybody had anticipated.

• 1:13:38Speaker 00

  You run one of the biggest commodity traders, did you guys see that coming?

• 1:13:41Speaker 04

  Not the degree of the elasticity of demand destruction. So yes, of course, China will find ways to curtail their need for crude. But the magnitude of that curtailment has been stunning. Number two is this strategically a decision by Iran or this just happenstance? But there has been a constant, not constant, an episodic flow of oil from the region.

• 1:14:09Speaker 00

  So thi- this is, I think, an important part of this story is, uh, I think one of the biggest things that come out of the MOU is the fact that we've been able to open the strait for a while, get all those ships. I mean, remember, it was like people were talking about a humanitarian crisis, these guys aren't able to get food and water, they've been stuck in these boats forever, and you've got all the oil. MOU, get it through, even though we know we're both lying to each other, we know, both of us know that like, on the other side of this, uh, it's all gonna fall apart, but we both have our reasons for wanting to get the oil through. Iran wants to generate revenue, which I'm sure they generated tens of billions, hundreds of billions of dollars. Also, the US is like, bro, we gotta get oil, like I can't have all my partners globally, all my allies sweating me

• 1:14:53Speaker 00

  that they're, you know, on the brink of an energy crisis. And so demand destruction is very helpful, obviously far more helpful than people thought. But just like getting that oil out has been a big deal. Trump, by the way, right now is swearing up and down, the strait is not closed. If you're lawful traffic, you're going to get through. Now, that's pretty bold statement there for a while. It was like, well, we're gonna try to escort people and we gotta be very careful. He's just like, nope, go. So I don't know if that's because they really have degraded their ability to patrol the strait that much, that he's really that confident? Or he just wants like, hey, fuck it, you're only gonna get one out of, you know, whatever 50 ships, we'll deal with that when it happens? That I don't know.

• 1:15:34Speaker 00

  Um, but even if you keep a trickle of oil going out, you're able to prolong this. So every ship that gets out is, you know, what, 20 more minutes that you can like push this off? So it's like if they can keep enough ships trickling out, then Trump buys himself more and more time. That's a really interesting part of the story. The core part obviously is, um, the surprise that everybody's had, that China has a lot more ability either through releasing massive amounts of reserves, which I'm sure is part of their strategy. Um, also just being like, hey, we're doing this, but we're not doing that. I think at some point they were also selling oil to other people, so they may just be like, no, we're keeping it all ourselves.

• 1:16:14Speaker 00

  And so they've been able to have a huge impact in terms of what does the world need right now? And it's my understanding that, uh, China influences the demand for oil like something like 74%. Now, that's one of those, I need to double check because that number seemed so shocking when I came across it. I was like, I need to go deeper on that to make sure that that's really real. But dude, if it's anywhere close to that, that one country drives global demand by that much is crazy.

• 1:16:45Speaker 01

  Yeah, and there was also early reports when Iran was giving them special passes to get through the, uh, strait too, before the MOU. So see your point, every couple of weeks, there was just been like, okay, we get a little bit of oil, we get a little bit of oil, so.

• 1:16:56Speaker 00

  Yup.

• 1:16:58Speaker 04

  LNG freighters that will get out with LNG, you'll see the oil cargoes leave. We've managed to keep oil at roughly low hundred dollar price.

• 1:17:07Speaker 00

  Yeah.

• 1:17:08Speaker 04

  Versus, I would say, most estimates would have put us at this point in this war. If the straits are closed, we'd be looking at almost $200 a barrel.

• 1:17:19Speaker 00

  That was the original take is everybody thought this is going to 200. And so the fact that we can be in open warfare over the strait, the thing that originally panicked everybody, and now people are like, nah, it's probably going to be fine. What markets are doing is basically pricing in, yeah, we're going to like be in a new world order, there are going to be some ships that get struck every now and then, you can have a volley of missiles from time to time, but the US is going to mow the grass and like, we're going to be fine. So that's where this gets very interesting is to see how, one, markets trade on emotion, never forget that. So when this was new and novel and people weren't sure what was going to happen, the

• 1:18:04Speaker 00

  swing was massive. Now that it's like, oh, yeah, okay, we sort of get where this is going. You get demand destruction. China's able to control what we thought was inelastic demand is actually very elastic demand. And so, nah, we're going to be fine. And so now you get stabilization in the markets, which of course is what Trump wants. Now, there's another guy that's talking about this that I find very interesting. His name is Jeff Snyder, we just had him on the show. This guy is interesting. He's one of those people, maybe he's just too technical, I don't know, but he's one of those guys, I'm like, how is this guy not bigger? His thinking is so clear, it's so different than what a lot of people are saying. He certainly has internal logic. Now, having internal logic doesn't mean that you're right, but he has consistent internal logic.

• 1:18:47Speaker 00

  He has a worldview that things map very well into. And I want to give him a chance to talk about what he sees going on, which is different than what Griffin is saying is happening.

• 1:19:00Speaker 05

  Today, we've got to look at one of the most intense and surprising signals in all global markets right now. On Thursday, the oil curve went completely flat. Now, that sounds technical, but this is a huge development. In a normal shortage environment, especially given the historic shock that we just went through, what we'd expect to see is near-term oil prices trading at a premium to those further down into the future. Instead, in the space of just a couple of weeks, we've seen these curves collapse and twist into a shape that suggests the market is now saying, we're on the cusp of having too much oil.

• 1:19:32Speaker 00

  Imagine if that actually is true. I don't know that that's quite what we see, but you are seeing some fear in terms of like, are we the world that we thought we were? Are we where we thought we were?

• 1:19:50Speaker 00

  If he ends up being right, and people should watch the episode that's coming out, is it, does it come out this Thursday?

• 1:19:56Speaker 01

  Uh, yes, this is.

• 1:19:57Speaker 00

  So, yeah, I would definitely watch that episode because he has a worldview that follows along from what he's covering here, which is that the global economy is far worse than you think. I'll let him finish saying it, but like, that part right there is scandalous.

• 1:20:15Speaker 05

  Supply has not fully normalized and the path to getting there is still fraught with difficulties and uncertainty. Yet, the front of this curve is where the flattening is most dramatic. That points away from a simple supply story and straight toward demand destruction. The possibility the global economy is weakening so quickly that even constrained supply is becoming more than enough of it. Now, Steve and I have been telling you to watch both major forces.

• 1:20:38Speaker 00

  What he's saying is that, all right, you've got supply constraints, MOU normalized things somewhat, but we're still blowing things up. This is not like, this has all been settled, everything's fine, hey, it's back to normal. Not that at all. So what the markets are telling you, where people are actually putting their money, what that's telling you is that people are like, I just don't know that we're going to need this much oil. Now, when people don't need energy, that is a very bad sign. That is a screaming red alarm. Now, if it were us transitioning to solar, I would feel very differently, or if enough nuclear had come on that it was really mattering, that's different. That's innovation-led deflation or switching of a need, if you will.

• 1:21:22Speaker 00

  But when they actually just need less energy, full stop, period, end of story, I don't need this much energy because we're just not doing as much, we're not making as much, we're not traveling, we're not spending money. That's where it gets weird. So he's saying the market is placing bets every day. And given how close, what he's calling the near end of the curve, so the immediate cost, given how close it is to the disruption that we're still in the middle of all this, the fact that it's dropping back down, that is hard to explain if the, the story that investors are trading on is a supply-side shock. But it makes all the sense in the world if what they're actually trading on is fear over a demand-side shock, that the, the whole economy is just doing worse and worse and

• 1:22:07Speaker 00

  worse, and people are now betting on that. And this is one of the things, I won't go into it now because it's complex and it's worth giving it its full due, but in the episode, we talk about why, despite the fact that the US inflates, inflates, inflates, inflates, inflates, people still have tremendous appetite for demand for government bonds. I mean, it is still historically very low for bonds to be sitting at whatever, four and a half percent. So it, it is very interesting. And so, yeah, getting his whole take on that fits right in with this idea of demand destruction, based on a global economy that is in far worse shape than people think.

• 1:22:48Speaker 05

  This, this flat curve is the other one, and it fits with a much broader set of warning signs, the shocking deterioration in the household employment figures, the crash in labor force participation, declining real incomes, and the plunge in tip break even rates. So we'll break down everything that's going on in oil, why this curve shape is so unusual in this context, and really, why the speed of the transformation may be the most important part of the story, and of course, how it all fits together in this context. So Steve, Steve, what's your take on the oil futures curve?

• 1:23:19Speaker 00

  That's the gist, is, okay, you've got Ken Griffin saying, hey, this really is a story of elastic demand. We thought that the demand was inelastic, but the reality is, nope, China is by far the world's largest controller of that demand, and we just found out that China can really constrain their needs. Cool. So you have a problem play out in the Middle East or elsewhere, they've got the ability to throttle back their demand absolutely massively. I don't think anybody has yet a clear picture on exactly how they're doing it, but they're able to do it. Then you've got Jeff Snyder going, okay, sure, yeah, maybe, but you also have the flattening

• 1:24:00Speaker 00

  of this curve out into the future, where people believe right now, you may end up actually having too much oil. The thing that people are willing to bet their money on is that this is, even after everything is completely normalized, you're not going to see the demand spike back up, which is very, very interesting. Obviously, that would be horrible, and we don't want that to be true. But I do think that, given the amount of distress that people are raising their hand and saying that they feel, it's pretty self-evident that what I'll call a stealth recession has been going for more than a year, is it more than two years?

• 1:24:42Speaker 00

  So we've been in a place where if you weren't in the markets, you were not loving life for an extended period of time. Now, Jeff tracks it all the way back to 2008. For him, it's just like, we've never recovered from that.

• 1:24:57Speaker 00

  But whether you clock it all the way back there, or you just take it forward to where we're at right now and say, listen, for whatever reason, the world is pulling way back on demand. Jobs are absolutely terrible. We're getting jobs numbers for a year that we used to consider a monthly rate, which is already crazy. And so you've got all this demand destruction happening in the labor force because of recessionary, he calls them depressionary trends. You also have AI, and now it becomes a question of, is AI actually reducing the number of jobs, or is it being used as a cover story, which is an interesting debate? But you have all this demand destruction.

• 1:25:41Speaker 00

  Then, because we're in a place, certainly here in the US, where we've got such a massive social safety net, you also have people just saying, I can't be bothered anymore, I'm not even trying to be in the labor force. You put those two things together and you have this horrifying labor force participation rate, which is dire, and I am shocked at how few people are talking about this. So, yeah, this is going to be one that people need to watch. This further increases my paranoia about being in risk on assets. So, yeah, be careful out there, boys and girls.

• 1:26:16Speaker 01

  All right, we got to jump over to Sam Altman, who's, he, he's like about to be the biggest fumble of this generation, because he went from like AI poster boy, golden child, to I don't even know what's going on right now. He had beef on with Elon, but the biggest news is that Apple is.

• 1:26:32Speaker 00

  Yeah, Sam Altman continues to entrench himself as the sociopath of AI, basically, at least according to Apple, as they attempt to level OpenAI with a massive lawsuit for stealing their hardware IP, basically at an industrial scale. So, Apple filed suit against OpenAI on Friday in federal court. They're alleging systematic trade secret theft. Complaint does not stop at OpenAI, by the way. It drags in poor Johnny Ive, if you guys remember him from Apple fame. So, he has a company called I O Products, which was purchased by OpenAI for $6.5 billion. There's also other individuals named in the suit.

• 1:27:15Speaker 00

  You've got Tang Tan, which is OpenAI's Chief Hardware Officer and former Apple VP of Product Design, as well as Chang Liu, a former Apple Senior Systems Electrical Engineer. The allegations are intense, man. Apple claims that Tan directed job candidates still working at Apple to bring actual hardware parts to their OpenAI interviews for what was being called show and tell sessions. It claims Liu exploited a security bug to download over 1,000 pages of confidential technical files, including manufacturing documents for Apple's circuit boards. Then, he joked about it in messages. Whoops, boys and girls, please remember, 50 cents immortal words.

• 1:27:59Speaker 00

  I try not to say nothing the DA might want to play in court. Try not to write anything down that the DA might want people to read in court. Liu also allegedly kept his Apple-issued laptop after leaving and coaching another Apple or other Apple employees on which confidential materials to study before their interview with OpenAI. Wild. Apple also says OpenAI misled a manufacturing partner into using a proprietary Apple metal finishing technique by implying it had Apple's permission. Yo. The filing calls OpenAI's hardware business rotten to its core and notes over 400 former Apple employees now work at OpenAI.

• 1:28:41Speaker 00

  Apple wants damages plus a court order forcing OpenAI to return his materials and stop using them. Now, OpenAI's responses, "We have no interest in other companies' trade secrets." Okay. The timing of all of this is just insane. OpenAI is trying to get their IPO going. These guys can't catch a break. I mean, they're shooting themselves in their own dick, but Apple and OpenAI, by the way, used to be partners back in 2024. Apple dropped them for Google in January, presumably because they knew that this was going on. Now, I imagine that they were already building their case before they parted ways. And now, the lawsuit is dropping just as OpenAI was preparing their IPO

• 1:29:22Speaker 00

  and undoubtedly was going to use a hardware device as like the lead thing to get people excited. Ooh, buddy, this one is going to be full of fireworks. So, get ready for one of the wildest corporate battles in modern memory. I mean, this is, this is gonna be crazy. And I really do think Apple means this as a kill shot to an already weakened OpenAI. This is gonna get crazy. And by the way, Apple has more cash than God, but they really are out of ideas. And so, if this is the one piece of hardware that they had hoped were going to replace the iPhone, which I don't know if I buy that, they fumbled the ball so hard on AI so far. But that's what some analysts are claiming.

• 1:30:07Speaker 00

  If that really was, this is like kill shot v. kill shot. So, it'll be interesting to see because if OpenAI absconds with the technology and is farther down the road and is able to integrate it with more powerful AI, man, oh, man, this is gonna get weird. But the real fun of it all is the X exchange between Elon and, um, what's his face?

• 1:30:31Speaker 01

  Sam Altman.

• 1:30:32Speaker 00

  Sam Altman, thank you. Where, scroll to the beginning of this?

• 1:30:35Speaker 01

  Yeah, this is the beginning. So, Elon tweeted, "Scam Altman is super good at scamming." A Doze Designer account retweeted that. Elon retweeted that, "He takes scamming to a whole new level." So then, Sam Altman quote tweeted that and said, "Homeboy, you're the one selling public market investors on short-term space data centers."

• 1:30:53Speaker 00

  Yeah, so before we move on, because there's one more knock after that. So, what Sam is saying is, listen, Elon, you built a lot of hype around your IPO of SpaceX AI, saying, "Oh, bro, like, we're going into outer space, like, this is gonna be crazy." Like, you have no idea what the future holds between what we're doing with, um, putting the internet out in space and now what we're gonna be doing with these data centers in space. And Sam is like, "Dude, that's so crazy. That's so many years off into the future, never gonna happen, not, not for this first wave of investors." So, basically, you've like pulled this big scam where you've got retail investors, super hyped, and they're all gonna get absolutely punished. And then Elon says,

• 1:31:37Speaker 01

  "We start flying them next year. Maybe you can come see them if your parole officer approves. After stealing an open-source AI charity, you then stole all of Apple's phone technology. Wow, what do you plan for an encore? That's tough to beat."

• 1:31:49Speaker 00

  It is so crazy to me that we live on the timeline where these absolute titans of industry are just taking potshots at each other, uh, out in public. It's crazy. This is going to be, uh, very damaging to one or both of these companies, by the way. Apple and, um, OpenAI will spend an ungodly amount of money and time and focus on fighting this. I'll be very interested to see if they actually get the injunction that stops OpenAI from using the technology. Because if this puts that tech on hold for a year or more, oh, my God.

• 1:32:22Speaker 01

  Yeah, especially with the delayed IPO and stuff like that.

• 1:32:24Speaker 00

  Yes.

• 1:32:25Speaker 01

  Jerry Rigs Everything tweeted, uh, kinda got caught on the side thing. He said, "Elon said we would have 50,000 Optimus robots in 2026. We currently have zero. For some reason, me pointing that out will make a lot of people really mad." But going to Elon's shot back at Sam Altman, "We're gonna have data centers in space next year." We all, we all know Elon has a timing problem where we're gonna do this. And then, three years later, that's when it kinda actually happens. So, are you bullish on space data centers? Like, do you think that that is a thing? Or is this kind of a, it starts out this, but it may morph into something else? Kinda like how the AI industry is currently doing?

• 1:33:00Speaker 00

  I think the best advice anybody can get is never bet against Elon. If Elon is saying that something is, um, possible from an engineering perspective, then it's possible. So, yes, will he get the timing right? Probably not. Will they actually, um, launch data centers into space? Almost certainly, yes. Will it matter? That's a bigger question. Because right now, there's so much news coming out that we have an overabundance of AI data centers. SpaceX AI is already leasing their, um, basically, intelligence output, the cycles on their data centers to Anthropic. And so, that remains a big question.

• 1:33:40Speaker 00

  Now, I am still convinced that we are in the middle of the normal cycle that plays out where you've got a revolutionary new technology with massive infrastructure costs and timing. And so, yes, you're probably gonna stumble and there are gonna be massive losses for investors. But the technology is real and ultimately, it's gonna get out there and it's gonna do its thing. I think that intelligence is so important. The very thing that makes humans able to do what we've done is intelligence. So, the fact that artificial intelligence is already so good, um, is it what we all want it to be? No, of course, we want it to get better and better and better and better and better. But even if it, it has already hit its peak and it's never gonna get any smarter,

• 1:34:21Speaker 00

  simply deploying it into more and more places is going to be utterly transformative. The internet took 20-plus years for it to play out, for people to really show what it could do. And the same is gonna be true with what's going on in AI right now. So, that one to me is, is a timing thing. Will they get the timing right? Probably not. Will it still be this utterly transformative thing? Yes.

• 1:34:44Speaker 01

  Yeah. So, keeping up with future tech news, you would tease it up earlier in the episode. This is a video of Palmer Lucky showing kind of their missile allotment and how he plans to do it on an assembly line style.

• 1:34:54Speaker 00

  This is incredible.

• 1:34:55Speaker 02

  This is a cruise missile.

• 1:34:57Speaker 06

  Yeah, so this is one of three cruise missiles that Andorl is manufacturing. One of the key things that Andorl has done that is different from many other companies is design our cruise missiles so that they can be very easily manufactured by automotive-style assembly lines, workers, and manufacturing equipment. Most other companies design very exquisite missiles that are built by high-end aerospace factories. But by building missiles with 90% less parts, that can be built in 10% of the time using automotive-style factories, it means that a country can make all of its automotive factories into part of its deterrent strategy.

• 1:35:34Speaker 00

  The thing that I love about Palmer Lucky is he is the reward that we get for people finally waking up and saying, "I'm not going to spend my time and energy making the next Twitter," which is like what everybody was doing for such a long time. There was a whole thing from Peter, Peter Thiel where he said, "We were promised flying cars and we got 140 characters." What he was trying to get at is the best and the brightest minds from around the world were sucked into two things. They were sucked into finance and they were sucked into basically apps. And there was a ton of money and I understand why people pursued it. But eventually, it got to the point where, um, our best and brightest found themselves being pulled into actual physical engineering and manufacturing. And you see Elon go into hardcore, just tangible, um, moving electrons around the physical world.

• 1:36:19Speaker 00

  And the same thing with Palmer Lucky. And when you raise our just young people with an absolute hunger to build real things, you get a very different world than when everybody's going into software. That doesn't mean don't go into software. There should be an absolute, for the people that love it, go into that, build the things that you care about. But the fact that we were just telling people over and over and over, everything's in software, everything's in software, go to software, I think really delayed a lot of cool things. And now, by the way, we really are getting flying cars and we're getting, I mean, listen, we're in a moment where building weapons is an important national security priority. So seeing somebody like Palmer, if you don't know his backstory, it's absolutely incredible.

• 1:37:00Speaker 00

  When he was a teenager, he starts making what ended up becoming the Quest VR goggles for Meta. Like, imagine doing that as a kid, makes a couple billion dollars off of that, turns that into Androl and some other companies, which now on their own are way bigger than what's going on with the Quest headset. So I mean, it's just absolutely astonishing what happens when you raise kids in an environment where it's like, listen, if you've got the ability to pull this off, like, there's no limit. Go pursue something great and getting them excited about being American, building something in America for national security. Like, this is so exciting to me. I really love seeing this. Manufacturing is what made

• 1:37:45Speaker 00

  America great. Being able to build, understanding that we have some of the most hardworking, innovative people on planet Earth, that that had been our ethos from time immemorial. I love seeing it come back. This is very exciting for me because we've become so financialized. And, look, it's a modern miracle, what we've built with the financial system, it's absolutely incredible. I'm not negative on it. But when everybody goes into that, you do start getting a derangement of that. You get a derangement of talent. Everybody just wants to go, like, into that space. Unfortunately, the kind of intelligence of somebody like a Palmer Lucky

• 1:38:25Speaker 00

  or an Elon Musk, it doesn't come around every day. And so if they end up going into just being a quant, it's like, yes, they can make a ton of money, and I wouldn't begrudge anybody that does it. But, boy, do I love to see people that actually physically make something. So incredible.

• 1:38:42Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:38:43Speaker 06

  World War II, for example, the United States and Japan both used their peacetime factories that were making automobiles, motorcycles, and they pivoted them to wartime use. But it took time to design weapon systems that could be made in that way. We're doing it before any potential conflict. It can be launched from the ground, or from the air, or from sea. Actually, we recently showed it doing a ground launch that we paid for that demonstration ourselves. But you can also launch these out of, for example, cargo aircraft. I can put them into a dispenser, so that even airplanes that aren't military aircraft, I can load this in, and I can push them out the side of the aircraft, and then the dispenser goes, turns your whole cargo aircraft fleet into part of your long-range

• 1:39:27Speaker 06

  weapon strategy. This is designed to scare China into not taking action on Taiwan. It has a very specific purpose. It's much less expensive than a conventional missile because of everything I've just talked about. Also because they reuse a lot of components. For example, this, this, and this, use the same actual-

• 1:39:46Speaker 00

  Pause it for a sec. I'm, uh, I worry for his safety. I worry for Elon's safety. Like, these are the guys that if you're like, oh, I don't have to take out a whole lot of people. I just need to take out these singular personalities that, I mean, what he's had to push back against when, at like, the height of woke, he was saying that he was building weapons for the US military. People lost their shit. Some of his political stances is what got him kicked out of Meta, which ended up being for the better. But, yeah. So, man, keep that man safe. Keep that man-

• 1:40:22Speaker 01

  He saw China recreated the landable locket.

• 1:40:25Speaker 00

  Oh, listen, Elon is always very honest about China. He's like, do not sleep on China. They have some of the most extraordinary engineers. They have a lot of very intelligent people. They are working very hard. China has a, like, call it 1950s through 80s vision of themselves, the way that America did. Where, we're the best, we make things better than anybody else, there's nothing we can't do, we're not doing this because it is easy, we are doing it because it's hard. Like, man, say what you will, but when, imagine being starved to death systematically by bad leadership for decades. You're watching your kids die, you're watching your friends die, you barely stay alive, but you make it to the other

• 1:41:08Speaker 00

  side. And that fucking guy that was starving everybody to death, he finally dies. And the guy that takes his place says, we're gonna stop starving people to death, we're gonna go to free markets. Dude, imagine, like, the just sense of like, no one's gonna stop me, I'm never gonna be in that position again. Like, we're gonna build and build and do great things, we were held down for so long. And so there's this sense of like, this pent-up steam in the system that finally got unleashed, and people just went crazy building. You can say they overbuilt, but it's still extraordinary what China did is unprecedented in human history. They're a worthy adversary. And people that try to make light of them, or say, oh, they just steal, whatever, listen, man, these guys

• 1:41:50Speaker 00

  are incredible. So, yeah, don't sleep on them. It's very interesting to hear Palmer, it's very in keeping with his personality, but to just say out loud, this is designed specifically to scare China off of making a move on Taiwan. Yo, damn. There it is.

• 1:42:06Speaker 01

  All right. In, um, Riz Gone Wrong, a senior Army nuclear scientist was trying to bag something, and he was like, hey, girl, I got these nuclear secrets from you, if you wanna come back to my hotel. I heard people, you know, tricking with money, I heard people offering purses and vacations and trips, I never heard people offer a nuclear secret. So, that might have been his end, I don't know, that might have been his thing.

• 1:42:28Speaker 00

  Bro.

• 1:42:29Speaker 07

  ... with oversight of America's nuclear arsenal has been placed on administrative leave by the Pentagon and may face criminal prosecution following a video sting operation by the O'Keefe Media Group. Newsmax chief Washington correspondent James Rosen is joining us now with a look at the comments caught on tape that landed this official in hot water. Good afternoon, James.

• 1:42:49Speaker 08

  Bianca, good afternoon to you. A spokesperson for War Secretary Pete Hegseth referred Newsmax to a statement that the Army issued yesterday. It confirmed that nuclear scientist Andrew Hug, the Army's Branch Chief for Chemical Nuclear Surety, a post focused on the safety and security of the Army's chemical and nuclear weapons components, has indeed been placed on leave pending additional investigation. In a pair of meetings in noisy restaurant settings with an unidentified woman who it turns out was employed by the O'Keefe Group, and who was surreptitiously recording the encounters, Hug appears to divulge classified information in a range of areas, from ongoing use of nerve agents to war planning in Iran.

• 1:43:32Speaker 08

  Two segments of the video apparently capture Hug disclosing to his young female interlocutor at least four locations of underground nuclear missiles and critical aspects of the launch process under which they could be fired off in the event of a nuclear conflict.

• 1:43:48Speaker 00

  It is a source of never-ending amusement, how easily manipulated men are with sex. I mean, it's absolutely hysterical. This is one of those where I really try to get people to understand, you're having a biological experience, and when you lose sight of that, you lose sight of it at your own peril. It is my understanding that in the CIA, they actually will just say nakedly to somebody, if a young woman comes up to you and starts flirting with you, the odds are that you're being groomed into something because you're not attractive enough for that to happen. They just say it straight to your face. Like, guys, please, for the love of God, do not be this easy to manipulate. It is wild. And

• 1:44:30Speaker 00

  listen, I get it. I have, especially when I was young, boy, oh, boy, does an attractive woman just reach inside your brain and squeeze something. But, man, you gotta stay sober, gents. You gotta stay sober. This is just wild.

• 1:44:45Speaker 01

  Somebody in chat said, the first time I went out, out of the country, they told me, be wary of hot chicks that wanna talk to you randomly on the street. Like, it's the same models, the same-

• 1:44:52Speaker 00

  I don't understand. Like, listen, we all think well of ourselves, I'm sure. But, God, in this day and age, you've gotta be so paranoid. So paranoid. This is just hilarious.

• 1:45:05Speaker 01

  I wanna hear the-

• 1:45:06Speaker 00

  Even those nuclear secrets.

• 1:45:07Speaker 01

  Yeah.

• 1:45:13Speaker 01

  Sheesh.

• 1:45:14Speaker 00

  Between, yeah, between the briefing and the loud stuff, it's always so hard to hear these things.

• 1:45:30Speaker 01

  Uh, he was like, yeah, here, here, here, there. This is the process. Wow.

• 1:45:35Speaker 00

  I'm important, girl. That's so wild.

• 1:45:38Speaker 01

  That's hilarious. Um, it's one of those things though, like it's, it's ironic, it's funny. We can like jest about it, but this is a nuclear secret. If somebody was listening, this could be trapped. So to your point earlier, where sleeper agents are everywhere, who knows how many of these things aren't being recorded by James O'Keefe. You know what I mean? How many of these conversations are happening with these sleepers and with these spies and these alleged honeypot assets and things like that around the world, not even just in America. So it's easy this, it's interesting to see this level of warfare that doesn't take place on the battlefield or behind a computer screen.

• 1:46:10Speaker 00

  That's a really good point, man. I think that, so when I was growing up in the eighties, everybody was hyper aware that we had spies in Russia, Russia had spies here and that you were always playing a cat and mouse game. We were trying to find them, but you had to be like eternally vigilant. We've completely lost that sense, which is crazy because I think it's probably way more now than it ever was between the tensions with China, the tensions with Iran, uh, still tensions with Russia that people really ought to be on their guard. If you have anything to do with anything that might be useful in one of those conflicts, Jesus, man, like you just need to assume. And that that's going to be, they're going to try to blackmail you. It's almost always something with sex.

• 1:46:53Speaker 00

  And, uh, they're going to try to send either a beautiful young woman or a beautiful young man, if that's your shtick. And that's how they're going to get you. And then ladies, I will tell you, it's going to be companionship. It's going to be the guy that like hears and understands and yada, yada. So, uh, man, everybody just needs to be super paranoid. We, we are at a time of massive geopolitical instability, heightened tensions. Like if you have information that could be useful, someone, somewhere is likely going to try to get it. Just as we are doing in their countries. So yeah, I don't understand why people aren't more on their guard, but here we are. These videos from James O'Keefe, shout out to James O'Keefe. They just keep pouring out, whether it's about fraud, um, election tampering.

• 1:47:38Speaker 00

  Now apparently nuclear secrets, you can just get everybody to confess. It's crazy.

• 1:47:43Speaker 01

  Um, and then last thing, this is Odyssey week. The Odyssey is dropping this weekend. There's been a lot of beef, a lot of contention around this, uh, the production, the casting. I was just, I did the universal tour with the girls this weekend and I like went behind the set and they showed me like the practicals, uh, ship that they used. He actually built like an ocean set with the big blue backdrop. The Trojan horse was out there, like, you know, Chris Nolan.

• 1:48:07Speaker 00

  How'd you get the hookup that got you like that tour?

• 1:48:09Speaker 01

  It was a studio tour, but they kind of drove around.

• 1:48:11Speaker 00

  Right, right, right. So God, I thought you were, they just didn't go with you on that.

• 1:48:15Speaker 01

  Oh, no, no, no.

• 1:48:16Speaker 00

  That's what you're saying? You said, I went on.

• 1:48:18Speaker 01

  Oh, yeah. Like, well, us, we were together.

• 1:48:20Speaker 00

  Okay. I queued off the wrong word there. I was like, oh shit. Like you know a guy who knows a guy. Let's go.

• 1:48:24Speaker 01

  I'll be right back. Stay here. Go play. Um, no, but I say all that to say is that while he's getting a lot of backlash for the casting, I'm team never bet on Nolan, like.

• 1:48:32Speaker 00

  Never bet on or never bet against?

• 1:48:34Speaker 01

  Never bet against. Excuse me. I'm not saying he made like half a bad movie in his career. So I don't know if you're a team, like, I don't know. You've been on the other side of it.

• 1:48:40Speaker 00

  I'm waiting to see, man. I think people are crazy on this one. So first of all, I'm not weird about race swapping. I get why people don't like it. If you did, um, uh, Black Panther three or four, or whatever we're on, and all of a sudden T'Challa was white, people would lose their fucking minds. So I get it. It's going to be a thing for some people. It's just not a thing for me. Uh, so I'm not weird about that. If they had put an, I would be weird if they put an unattractive woman in the role. So if they do something to make her unattractive, because she's supposed to be the face of Launch the Thousand Ships. Now, if you make her hot and she's like, yeah, I get why somebody would go fight for her. Tom is a like individual person does not care whether that person is race swapped.

• 1:49:21Speaker 00

  I, that's not going to be a popular internet opinion, but then I've also heard that, um, you've got, uh, not, not you've got. I'm in a private chat with people that are well-connected that, um, are obsessed with films. And one of them got an early screening and he was like, dude, this movie is so good. Like people are going to lose their minds. One of Nolan's best, like it's just going to absolutely smash. So I was like, oh shit. So for me, after that, I was like, oh, okay. I really want to see it. I'm optimistic. It'll be interesting to see because there is so much backlash, uh, from people that think that, you know, the race swapping thing is just,

• 1:50:03Speaker 00

  you're just now in the modern message and all that. And I guess the version of the Odyssey that it's based on is a very like hyper-left leaning interpretation that sees Homer's problematic and all that shit. So it's possible that there's enough like just sort of D E I signals that if you either like that or don't care, that the movie just completely blows your mind. And that if you hate that and do care, you just can't get into the like movie of it all. And so that'll be interesting to see. But like you, I wouldn't bet against Nolan. I think he's an extraordinary filmmaker. Even when he's not making sense, like Tenet was just confusing. I was like, the fuck am I watching? But at the same time, there was something about the rhythm and the visuals and all of that, that I still was like, there's a part of this that's cool.

• 1:50:48Speaker 00

  Even though for me, the narrative is an absolute train wreck. So on that, I would say, I want to see it. I'll be very keen to see what happens. But I am admittedly very interested to see what happens in the public backlash. Will there be enough backlash that it can actually overcome a good movie that over time, people are likely to be like, if it's as good as this guy claims, that people will sort of let that go. Hey, by the way, um, who has seen the movie Shawshank Redemption? Me. Hopefully you guys, I can't, you guys are, whoa. That's insane.

• 1:51:24Speaker 01

  I've seen it when I was little. I don't remember.

• 1:51:26Speaker 00

  It's so, what is happening right now? I expected you guys to be like, me, me, me. Chat. Like, have you guys seen, uh, that movie? It, it is, it's one of my all-time favorites for sure. It is in contention with The Godfather. When you see like all-time best lists, people are like, Godfather, Shawshank Redemption, like they both compete. Uh, the Morgan Freeman character is race swapped. So his name is Red because he's an Irish guy. And so in, it's a book, but so is the Odyssey. So it's like, that one, not only did I not care even a little bit, Morgan Freeman is so good in that movie. Who would you put in that would be better? So they make a joke about it in the movie. He's like, why do they call you Red? And he goes, maybe it's because I'm Irish.

• 1:52:10Speaker 00

  And it funny in the movie, in the book, it's just really an answer. And yeah, I couldn't love it anymore. So listen, I get it. There's like all this agenda. People are weird. There really is an agenda. People really are trying to use entertainment as a way to browbeat people with something. Uh, and so that's a very high-risk proposition. But yeah, I'm, for now, I default to, it's going to be incredible. Can't wait to see it. Uh, as long as they showcase, um, Napita, is that her name? Lapita, Napita? Uh, anyway, if they showcase her beauty, because she certainly can look gorgeous, uh, then yeah, I won't have any beef buying into that. But if they do try to browbeat people with the message, I get why some people are just going to eject out.

• 1:52:50Speaker 00

  Boys and girls, we love you the most. Uh, we have another AI masterclass coming up Wednesday, August 5th. We lied previously and said it wasn't until September. That was a lie. You can ignore that. It's coming up Wednesday, August 5th at 1:00 PM Pacific. It's free. The link to sign up is in the description. Uh, this is where I walk people through how to use AI to launch a company. So definitely check it out. It's been a huge win for people that have taken it. Uh, it is very, very useful. All right, guys. We will see you on Wednesday. Have a great day. Peace. Let's talk about a pattern that is guaranteed to be killing your progress. You know what you need to do. You need consistent nutrition. We all do. You need vitamins, probiotics, greens.

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